"hardball" starts right now. the trump tenor in peres out, yes it's oops again. let's play hardball. good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. well, we've got the lineup. it's trump at the top, john kasich just squeezing in. we now know that ten republicans will meet in a primetime debate two nights from now that could well decide who goes on to iowa and new hampshire and who begins to fall by the wayside. here's the lineup announced by fox just in the past hour. front and center, donald trump, he's followed by jeb bush, scott walker, mike huckabee, ben carson, ted cruz, marco rubio, rand paul, chris christie and finally, yes, john kasich made the cut.

and here's who's been left out of the main debate and relegated to the kids' table earlier in the evening. rick perry didn't make the cut. oops again, as i said. rick santorum, used to be a big timer. bobby jindal no way, carly fiorina, lindsey graham, george pataki and jim gilmore also out of the game. i'm joined by michael steele, joan walsh and "the washington post" robert costa. thank you all. joan, i'll start with you because you're smiling so much. kasich really timed it right. he's the one candidate who i think is the most appealing if you're center-left or center. but the fact that he squeezed in, that rick perry is out and that trump has got the catbird seat. he's the tent pole. as we said in catholic school, the may queen. >> i remember that. >> everyone will be dancing around him. >> i love that. >> megyn kelly and everyone will be gunning for the big guy. >> this is terrible news for

rick perry who ran a better campaign, a more coherent campaign this time around. it is good news for john kasich. it's a huge opportunity for kasich who has wanted to set himself up as a more compassionate conservative, as somebody who has governed more from the center, who has done good things around medicaid, who has done good things around drug treatment and really could be the person. i would look to him to possibly be the person to stand up to donald trump if things get ugly and lay out a different path to the presidency. jeb bush has been hugely disappointing in playing that role. so i would look to trump -- to kasich to be the person who wants to grab the spotlight. >> you have just framed my discussion right now. >> well, good. >> who will stand up to him beside the anchors who have to score their own points? will any of the members of the debating team here say to him, mr. trump, you are so full of it. the stuff you said about immigrants or john mccain is rotten. >> john kasich has the home

court advantage, if you will. when it talks about governing -- >> he's in cleveland. >> he can talk about what we did down the road. how we fixed the bridge over there, how we handled medicare and medicaid. so he has sort of that advantage, i think, to play that card. should trump go there -- >> and why do you assume that for some reason jeb thinks he can rope a dope this thing. i'm going to drive on. >> i wouldn't say jeb is taking that position. i think jeb is probably doing a wait and see. if attacked, he will respond kind of thing. but he doesn't plan to be the one who leads the advance on that. and i don't think kasich will either. >> who has the fighting stance right now? >> i just got off the phone with trump's people. saying trump spent all day today in trump tower in new york. he'll hold back a little bit. he won't take the first shot.

>> who will then? >> ben carson? no, soft spoken. kasich is a firecracker. he wants to get attention. he is a personality similar to trump. >> chris wallace, his son will be one of the top anchors here. he's saying that one of the three anchors, questioners, is going to put a fastball down the front, high and in the middle for the candidate for trump rather to take a shot at one of the other ones like they're going to fire. what do you thing about jeb bush on this thing. we come here for love and illegal immigrants come here for love. somebody is going to try to fire trump up with some kind of a fastball. what do you think? that's their goal, he said. >> trump is at a crossroads, too. he has to think about am i going to be a serious candidate or a bully, a carnival barker. he's doing well being who he is. but he's got a ceiling. we don't know if that's 20% or

higher, 30, 35. >> what's it take to get you through to, say, south carolina? maybe only 25%. because as long as there's four or five candidates -- >> he may think that's enough for him. but he could be thinking look, this is a time for me to think about laying out a policy agenda, maybe time for me to show i can be a statesman and not just a blowhard. he's not calling me, so i'm not saying i have any information. but an interesting time for him. an interesting inflection point in the campaign to see if he feels like he has the room to develop a little bit more of a serious side. i doubt it, but somebody over there has to be saying, look -- take a look at this. >> robert, what about the story the new york magazine pushed the story that trump called rudy giuliani for help dealing with roger ailes who runs fox news to get megyn kelly to go light on him. he denied it, we called him. why would trump ever expose himself is that chicken he had to call for help megyn to lay

off me. how did a story like that get going today? >> because trump's allies are calling around to friends and they're saying, we're a little concerned about fox news. we're a little bit concerned about this debate. >> who would his friends be? the old guys that have been around forever, roger stone maybe. >> you know who is around stone. >> there's pat goodell now. >> carter's guy, a.c.'s floating around. trust people they thought they could ride this summer and get a lot of energy. they're concerned, wallace, kelly. >> of course they're going to come right at him. >> they don't want to overdo it at fox. >> the highest rating they'll probably ever have in history. >> but trump got high he got high fast in the polls. he wants to stay there. >> who will prick the balloon? anybody? >> i think the person is trump himself. i don't think -- look, you look at what happened after his comments on mccain. you look at -- >> that didn't hurt.

>> they think walker may. walker's donors are telling him maybe it's time to pick a fight. >> i just don't -- >> he's seen his campaign a little flat. >> i think walker wins and this guy lasts three or four months walker or kasich picks up after him. on morning joe today trump explained whyy had thinks the poll why are you doing so well, mr. trump? let's watch. >> i think that people are tired, they're sick and tired of incompetent politicians. nobody knows the politicians better than me. don't forget, three months ago i was on the other side of the ledger. i was the fair-haired boy in the rnc. when i get up and speak, i get the biggest crowds. we get standing ovations and all we do is talk about how great our country could be. and i mean that. our country has such potential. but if it continues to go at this path, it's going to be almost impossible to bring it back. it's really far down the line. >> what happened to the old notion that in order to woo support from other people you

had to be a little humble. you couldn't go around bragging about yourself all the time. i used to act like him when i was younger. but the fact is he is getting away from being boorish. he seems to be doing well and the media hasn't tagged him. and he has these self-sealing tires he drives on. he punctures himself and they seal up and he keeps rolling. >> the way he talks about the country is so negative. that appeals to a segment of the republican base. we know that. one thing i think he's right about is -- >> that doesn't appeal -- how does running down the country appeal to anybody? >> people, look, people who think that barack obama is an illegitimate president -- >> the country you said. >> people feel that. >> listen so what he said. our country is in danger. >> worried about our country is different than talking down.

>> something very negative about the way he talks now. we're still a great country. and by many measures better than eight years ago. but one thing he's right about is this notion that his base is very frustrated with the republican party. and why not? they've promised time and again and broken their promises. they've promised crazy things. we're going to repeal obamacare. they can't do it. we're going to shut down the government and defund obamacare. no, can't do that. we're going to refuse to let the debt ceiling. defund planned parenthood. no, you can't do that. trump doesn't have to deliver on anything, but he can point to these guys that have raised the hopes of a right-wing minority and they can't deliver on any of it because the country doesn't want it. >> i agree with all. let me go back to the republican party and its general failure. haley barbour will come on in a few minutes. i taped this an hour ago. he gets to the question how he wants trump to say i'm not running third party. commit to that.

>> every single insider, they want that. they're really fearful trump's going to continue -- >> so what if he does, you really think at the end of the day he's going to hold that? >> let's go to the problem in the republican party. jeb bush, the one that every money person i talk to in the democratic party, i think every republican money guy thinks it's bush. because he's got money. and money people think money talks. okay, fine. look at his numbers. the latest poll found that jeb bush his favorability has dropped dramatically. only about a quarter americans view him positively. among republican, only about half view him favorably. nice aren't just tough numbers for jeb, they're hard to get the nomination numbers. i believe if we spend this fall talking of donald trump there's no way you can go to bush after that. you got to go to somebody more working class, more regular, more new like walker or kasich. you can't go back to the old establishment. you're shaking your head.

you think he can go all the way back? >> i think that number two spot is a sweet spot for bush right now. it gives him cover. it gives him opportunity on the ground to continue to build out his base. >> where does all the anger go? >> the anger, we have anger in '08. >> i've got my hands up like trump. where is the -- where did the anger go? >> at he end of the day, the base understands. >> they take it again from the rich guys, we're not going to run another bush. >> this is guy with the lead they consider to be one of them. >> the debate's not about playing against -- >> okay. joan, you think they're going to tuck it in again and say we'll run with the old waspy win party, the same people with good notions to make them feel better. >> that's a really big worry for the republican party and people like michael. i really think you're right that it's going to be very hard to accept a jeb bush.

can we also say my god jeb bush is running a terrible campaign. i don't know how number two and three is good for him. he made another misspeaking today where he said why do we need a half billion dollars for women's health and then had to walk it back. i only meant that about planned parenthood. he walked back the size of isis, he walked back the minimum wage. he's terrible. >> front-runners aren't doing that great. hillary isn't doing better. >> a lot better than he is. >> but you had to say that out of the side of your mouth. you didn't say that with enthusiasm. okay, great. we'll argue about that. we'll see. i think she's doing better than he's doing. bush is -- >> we can agree. >> it's summer. >> it's summer. >> i'm just saying you can't write him off. >> he's counting his money. you can't write him off, it's true. >> god, money talks. b.s. walks.

remember that? ozzie myers. anyway, michael steele, on that sad note, michael costa and joan walsh. we'll talk to former presidential candidate rudy giuliani. donald trump's on the top of the field heading to first debate. he's the tent pole right in the middle. haley barbour wants him to promise on the record he'll not make a third party run for president if he doesn't get the republican nomination. tuesday clown car tuesday keeps coming around. finds scott walker behind the wheel. he's playing the ugly game of pretending he doesn't know what religion president obama is. what pandering to the worst in the far right. trump is creating his own party. now he has sarah palin in his cotillion. finally let me finish with those working men and women out there backing donald trump. right now. and this is "hardball." everyone's raving!

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and i will tell you, it's three agencies of government when i get there that are gone. commerce, education and what's the third one there? let's see. >> five. >> okay, commerce, education and the -- >> epa? >> there you go. >> seriously? is epa the one you were talking about? >> no, sir, we were talking about the agencies of government. epa needs to be rebuilt, no doubt about that. >> but you can't name the third one? >> the third agency of government i would do away with education, the -- >> commerce. >> commerce and, let's see. i can't, the third one i can't. sorry. oops.

>> oops. who can forget that infamous moment from rick perry in the debate among republican candidates. rick perry has now sunk down to the kiddie table or the -- what's it called, the happy hour this thursday, narrowly missing the cut for the prime time debate. we'll be there with full coverage for both events. join me thursday night live from cleveland, the home of the indians, from 7:00 to 9:00 and back again from 11:00 to 1:00 in the morning eastern time. .

welcome back. with the record 17 candidates vying for the nomination, the republican party has a long road before their convention next summer. their fortunes in 2016 will rest entirely on the person they choose to eventually face their likely democratic opponent hillary clinton. back in april haley barbour urged his party to pick a candidate who can win voters in

the middle of the ideological spectrum. quote, when democrats move further to the left and republicans further to the right, you risk -- the risk is you hollow out the middle. never let purity be the enemy of victory. if you demand perfection in your candidates or your party, you are going to be disappointed because only one perfect person ever walked the earth. and he ain't going to be running for election next year. but when republican voters were asked in a new nbc/"wall street journal" poll what was most important to them in selecting the republican nominee, only 12% said their top concern was choosing a candidate who can beat the democratic nominee, hillary clinton. 54% said it was more important to choose a candidate who comes closer to their views on issues. i'm joined by the longtime former republican chair haley barbour, also governor of mississippi during hurricane katrina. he's the author of "america's great storm." governor, we'll have you on for that. i've read the book, i've blurbed it.

you're a pragmatist yet your party seems to dee november doesn't count, we'll vote for who we care about, who we like the most. >> any time you ask people in the poll, what's the most important thing. agrees with me, strong leader. and that's very natural. but as you get closer to the election, it gets more and and more on your mind. you don't get to govern unless you win. in the two-party system where both parties are broad, diverse parties, both parties purity is the enemy of victory. i see the democrats going hard to the left and saying so. you've seen fluff and -- >> you think that bernie sanders is pulling hillary over? >> i don't. i think hillary's campaign plan is to run hard left. they said publicly we're not going to do what bill clinton did, we're not going to try to capture the senate. >> you don't think that's a smart move do you?

>> i really don't. ronald reagan got more than 60% of the vote. he flew under bold colors but he had a divided government the whole time. when the time came he compromised on virtually everything to make a huge amount of progress. >> anyway, republican candidate ted cruz says the party should avoid what he calls the mushy middle. directly the opposite of what you're saying. here's what he said late last year. >> if we run another candidate in the mold of a bob dole or a john mccain or mitt romney, we will end up with the same result, which is millions of people will stay home on election day, which is what happened for all three of them. if we run another candidate like that, hillary clinton will be the next president. >> what do you make of that. he's saying don't go anywhere near the middle our you'll end up with mush. >> everybody is entitled to their opinion. my view is that we have to have somebody, a solid conservative, who will be for the right things but understands that you don't get to impose things unless you

have huge, huge -- >> governors have to work with the other side most of the time. >> that's my experience. >> you've got kasich out there, you've got walker out there. you've got jeb bush out there. they all know how to work with the other side. >> you have seven governors in the race, eight when you count jim gilmore who got in yesterday. i do believe you should run your party, run your campaign so that 60% of voters think i might vote for that guy. i might vote for that party. that's what reagan did and he and nixon in '72 were the only candidates in my lifetime that got over 60% of the vote. >> let's take a look at this. what's going on this week, donald trump. first won the attention of the political world back in 2011 by making the outrageous claim that president obama wasn't born in the u.s. let's take a look. >> i feel strongly about the fact that barack obama should give his birth certificate. three weeks ago when i started i

thought he was born in this country. now i have a much bigger doubt. if he has a birth certificate, he should release it. if you weren't lying, why wouldn't he just solve it? i wish he would. because if he doesn't, it's one of the greatest scams in the history of politics and in the history, period. >> of course, president obama did release his birth certificate, but as recently as last month trump says he still doesn't know if the president was born in this country. let's watch him. >> i'm asking you now do you accept that president obama was born in the united states? >> no, i really don't know. >> what's this game about? and can you run a guy that doesn't even accept the legitimacy of his predecessor. >> i don't think that's the biggest problem for donald trump. >> why he is doing this? >> you'll have to ask him why he's doing it.

donald trump's biggest problem for having a chance to win the republican nomination is he will not rule out running as an independent or third party candidate. every republican, literally there was a poll the other day. if trump runs as an independent, that gives the white house to the democrats just like ross perot gave the white house to the democrats when bill clinton only got 43% of the vote in 1992. >> is he a loyal republican? haley barbour? >> i don't know him well enough. >> you're saying you want -- >> he should say it in the debate, i will not run as a third party candidate. i want to have a republican president. and of course he's going to say he would like for it to be him. but if it's not him, then he's not going to sabotage the chance to elect a conservative republican president. >> if he runs third party, is that the end for anybody you nominate in your party. >> i don't see how we could win if you get a guy that can get 3 or 4% as a third party candidate.

i don't see how anybody who is serious about running for the republican nomination cannot rule that out. >> do you have a sense when you look at donald trump in his history he's been back and forth on a lot of issues, abortion rights. do you think he's a republican? do you look at him as a fellow republican? >> take it at face value. >> has he ever said he's a republican? >> he hasn't said he's republican to me, but he and i don't talk all the time. >> i'll give you a shot -- >> here's the fact. the guy has touched a cord in the country. the country is unhappy, both on our economy and national security we've been going the wrong direction. he's tapped into that. but you and i both know polling taken in the summer of this year is not predictive of what's going to happen in the spring of next year. >> but let me just ask you this. you're the best guy i know off the record on politics. if it's off the record and nobody's watching you're absolutely down the middle straight.

you don't have to be a partisan. and it seems to me that this is leading somewhere. how do you go from the big polls all supporting trump right now so an establishment figure like bush? where somewhere in the middle are kasich, walker, people like that that are a little more working class, a little more regular, a little more like the trump voter than a bush. do you think he's influencing your election being such a big deal now? >> that remains to be seen. >> it may not have an influence. >> what i do believe strongly is this is largely about celebrity. i thought rand paul made a very important point. he said to some reporter, if you all put me on tv twice an hour from 8:00 in the morning to 8:00 at night every day, i'd go up in the polls, too. >> you know, you put most of these people on the air from 8:00 to 8:00, we'd all be asleep. i'm sorry, i don't buy that theory one bit. thank you, haley barbour. a loyal republican. we'll have you back when the book is out.

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i believe this obama iranian nuclear deal is the single gravest national security threat facing america. it is a catastrophic deal. over a hundred billion dollars will flow into iran. iran is the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism. i pointed out if this deal goes through that the obama administration will become the world's leading global financier of radical islamic terrorism. >> welcome back to "hardball." opponents of the nuclear deal have been using near apocalyptic

warnings like that one to kill the agreement. but it's not clear it will work. president obama continued his lobbying efforts today meeting with jewish leaders. but in a dueling address today bibi netanyahu told 10,000 participants in a live webcast aimed at american jewish people that the nuclear deal, quote, paves iran's path to a bomb. i'm joined by u.s. congressman dan kildee, democrat of michigan, and jeremy ben-ami. i'm going to start with jeremy who is here. how do you make the case against this onslaught of big money, big ads in "the new york times." you get the sense that the american jewish community is scared to death, yet the polls show the opposite. >> the case has to be rooted in the fact that this is actually a good deal. the facts actually are 100% on the president's side. it is not a question of whether or not iran is a good regime. we'll stipulate it's a bad actor. does this stop the country's pathways to a nuclear weapon.

put aside fear mongers, the people who are nuclear proliferation experts, military people say this is a good deal and stops iran's pathway to a bomb. >> the pressure, political pressure from the american israeli political action committee and others is so strong, the money they're spending, they released this ad. >> iran keeps their nuclear facilities. military sites can go uninspected. restrictions end after ten years. then iran could build a nuclear weapon in two months. iran has violated 20 international agreements and is the leading state sponsor of terrorism. congress should reject a bad deal. >> what that ad doesn't tell you

is that iran could build a bomb in two months right now. the only thing standing between them and building a bomb right now is this deal. your thoughts? >> that's the thing. first of all, members of congress really should think about what legacy they want to leave, not what the politics of the moment are. this deal, we can criticize it and scrutinize it, but the only way to evaluate this deal is against what the real possibilities are if this deal does not go forward, and that is, as you said, iran could have a bomb within months. and we really have to measure the quality of this deal, what it does. it gets us years and years with scrutiny, with eyes on the ground in iran so if they cheat, we'll know it. the alternative is much more treacherous than any of the criticism that this deal, you know, might endure. and i think members of congress are going to have to think about what legacy they want to leave. are we going to embrace diplomacy and give it a chance knowing that all the other

options that we might use are still available to us if iran cheats or goes down the wrong path? i think that's what members of congress should think about, not the politics of the moment. >> i get a sense, gentlemen in the end it will be nancy pelosi that will have to save this for the president. it's getting tricky, treacherous even. >> you've seen important democratic leaders in the house that have not shown their cards before coming out and supporting the president. adam schiff. >> barbara boxer. so impressed by durbin. >> senator levin. >> these are people i've known all my political life and i've always respected. this is strong pressure from apec. when you look at your caucus over there, you won't get much support from republicans. can you hold members against this effort? >> well, it's probably going to be close. we hear members, you know, coming out every day announcing

their position. i know something about iran. i have represented one of the families of one of the americans being held in iran. when they look at this deal and evaluate it, they'll come out in favor of it. if members look at this in terms of a political calculation and not what it means in terms of the security of the region and the security of the world, they may come to a different conclusion. but i think you're right. we will have the votes in the house but we'll have to be persuasive. my goal is to call on members to examine their conscience and examine the deal and come to a conclusion. i think they'll say yes. >> they should read a copy of "profiles in courage" on this occasion. i mean it. up next, clown car tuesday. a little lightening effect here. how ted cruz cooks his bacon. and a new page in the birther playbook as if it needed one.

welcome back to "hardball." it's clown car tuesday again. with donald trump sucking all the oxygen out of the gop field, his rivals will do anything to get some attention. last month lindsey graham set his cell phone on fire after trump gave out his personal cell phone in a campaign event in graham's home state of south carolina. rand paul took a chain saw to the tax code as a rock 'n' roll rendition of "the star-spangled banner" played in the background. and mike huckabee said they're marching israelis to the door of the oven. then in a new video produced by the conservative media outlet i.j. review, cruz demonstrates how to cook bacon texas style wrapped around the barrel of a machine gun. here he is. >> texas, we cook bacon a little differently than most folks. ♪

>> mm, machine gun bacon. >> kacie hunt, john mccormack and fran chambers. i don't know how to make fun of people when they do that. what's the satire on that? that seems like it carries the satire with it. bacon wrapped around a gun at the time we have police shootings, people getting killed, people shooting cops, murder rates in chicago and baltimore that are frightening. this guy is out there enjoying his machine gun. machine guns have been outlawed since the '30s. your thoughts? >> yes, we're undergoing difficult things. on the lighter side of this, this i.j. review has done this with several candidates. >> what's the message? >> well, look, i think the message is he's trying to reach

out to people who, you know, respond to that. >> who like machine guns. >> who like machine guns. look, i've been hunting with ted cruz, i will say, full disclosure. he's comfortable with a gun. but he'd be the first person to tell you, as he told me, it's not something that he necessarily grew up with right away. not something that's been incorporated into his life even though he does have the basic knowledge of how to do it. >> what does this got to do with running for president? >> this has to do with campaigning in the age of the internet. i.j. review, they seek to be a conservative sort of buzz feed. they like bacon and put it together and it equals clicks. i don't think it's meant to be a statement about anything. >> why would it get me to vote for him, why would it appeal to anyone? >> people who like guns and laid back enough to make a goofy video like this. younger voters -- >> younger voters who are into machine guns. >> that's not a machine gun.

it's fully automatic. it's exaggeration. >> it was an -- >> explain. was it bup, bup, bup, bup. >> rachel maddow spent a lot of time -- >> semiautomatic. >> it was an air 15. not necessarily young people on the right. young people of the internet age that like viral videos and like to see bacon cooked on a gun. i think that's the audience for this. as you said earlier, that trump is sucking all the air out of the room, so some of the candidates are getting desperate to make headlines. what we're talking about now, we're talking about ted cruz and the video and not talking about donald trump. so it's successful. >> you're positive about this? >> i'm not saying that i'm positive about it -- >> kasie is. you guys look look at your hands. i just caught your hands. this the donald trump day.

hey, isn't this great? >> it's effective. stealing back headlines from donald trump. effective. >> it's this. anyway, wisconsin governor scott walker earns a seat in the clown car because he says he still isn't sure president obama is a fellow christian. >> is president obama a christian? >> you're not going to get different answers than i said before. i said i don't know. i presume he is by his comments in the past, but i've never asked him about that. as a believer myself, i don't know someone's belief about whether they follow christ or not unless i talk to them. but he says he has, so i'll take my word. >> what's the answer? i don't know. if somebody said to me, i'm jewish, that's what you are. people accept other people's decision making and identity. he says he is, but i don't know. what does that mean? >> he has to stick with the original answer that they gave. if he says, i've decided that president obama was a christian now.

it would look like he's flip-flopping. >> why are people questioning other's religion? >> the best thing to say is next question. walker is saying i believe there's more than just a label. maybe he's an evangelical or a personal relationship with jesus or credo beliefs. what would obama have to say to you to convince you of that? that's the most charitable interpretation. hillary clinton got the trouble when she said i assume obama is not a muslim as far as i know. when you hint at this, you get this trouble. i don't read anything sinister in this. she said in 2007 that obama was fundamentally un-american in his thinking and values. >> the questionnaire you fill out. you really believe the guy's religion is what he says it is? >> to a certain extent walker being his own political strategist -- he took a lot of heat for saying this the first

time from people who might have been considered in his own camp. he's obviously not taking that advice and being concerned as being viewed as a flip-flopper. >> a fairly depressing roundtable. we'll give them another shot. the big city billionaire and self-described mama grizzly, why they've come together in this race for 2016.

happy birthday to president obama who turned 54 today. in honor bill clinton tweeted happy birthday, potus, hopefully when flotus isn't looking, you can have some cake. and for her party, first lady michelle obama tweeted happy birthday to a loving husband, wonderful father and my favorite dance partner. i didn't know obama danced. >> we'll be right back.

back at the roundtable. kasie, john and francesca.

it's smart sarah palin has been brought into this cotillion. he's building a team trump, a trump party. what do you think, john? >> it's smart. she's got an intense passionate base. i think she protects him from his greatest vulnerable, that he's a conservative. he's supported canadian style single-payer health care. he wants to play to the crowd and get a lot of attention. >> i think it shows him a leader. that was the problem with obama for a long time. nobody back there. just him. this guy looks like he's building a force in the party. even ted cruz seems to be hobbling behind him. you're a guy to go hunting with. >> that's an over exaggeration. >> i take it back. you only went with him once. >> i was covering him.

>> was somebody shooting at him? >> no, no one was shooting at him. >> he has an annual pheasant hunt. >> how did you do? >> i didn't pick up a gun. >> i think sarah palin is a little bit yesterday. i think he brings her back in the game and establishes her gender balance, an annie oakley type, cowboy, westerner. >> the reality is there's a lot of crossover between people excited about sarah palin and people saying they're going to back donald trump. >> is the defense we didn't go to eastern colleges? >> that's a big part of it. a lot of people supporting donald trump, they're not necessarily billionaires. he's not tagged with what mitt romney was tagged with.

he's achieved something that a lot of normal people think, if he can do it, maybe i can do it, too. for romney, he didn't come across -- >> that's a republican value by the way, self-made people? >> absolutely. to speak to your point, a lot of people supporting trump didn't go to collegiate all. i think what sarah palin does do is give him credibility. >> she went to about 20 colleges. >> she has a quite large following when it comes to the conservative movement. >> in this show she has a following. >> a very large following in the conservative movement. >> sarah palin wrote this valentine, online essay. the folks i meet commiserate and wussified slates of politicians, but then unsolicited they whisper their appreciation for trump because he has the guts to say it like it is.

>> i think conservatives are learning the lesson with good reason. this is one case where that's wrong, this guy is not a conservative. >> you don't think it's a conservative? >> no. i think he's a show showman. >> you just called him out. another time i'm confused by this roundtable. kasie hunt, john mccormack and francesca, thank you. let's pay attention to them and what they're saying about our country. you're watching "hardball," a police for politics. progressive insu rance here, and i'm a box who thrives on the unexpected. ha-ha! shall we dine? [ chuckle ] you wouldn't expect an insurance company to show you their rates and their competitors' rates, but that's precisely what we do. going up! nope, coming down. and if you switch to progressive today, you could save an average of over 500 bucks. stop it. so call me today at the number below. or is it above?

dismount! oh, and he sticks the landing!

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because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. let me finish tonight with something powerful about this week's republican debate, the belief that donald trump is drawing his strongest support among those americans who didn't get the privilege of going to college. i call it a privilege because while many didn't make the most of their four years of higher education, the mere opportunity to pursue a university education is not something everyone gets, not by a long shot. let me just say this to those who did get this privilege and think they've got a right to look down on those who didn't. it's something you should put into your head and keep it there. many years ago i was working as a u.s. capitol police officer and working with men who served previously in the military. one was leroy taylor from west virginia, a country boy. he was the working guy telling the college kid how the world worked. you know why the little man

loves this country, he asked me one night during our evening shift? it's it's all he's got. i tried to hold onto that insight all these years since. there's more human knowledge in that statement than whole courses you take in college. when i look at the workmen and women backing donald trump i think back what i learned from this country boy i worked with back in the '70s and what he said about the little boy loving his country. it comes home to me like a rocket. the voter looking to donald trump has come to believe his country, the united states of america, is not being protected by the political class, not protecting the border, against growing debt, protecting our jobs. it's giving away those things to other countries and people who come into this country illegally. when you love your country and it's all you've got, you put a high price on it. the support going to donald trump right now strikes me it's going there because the big shot, well educated types, the best and the brightest have let the trust of the working fellow

slip through their hands. they don't trust them and are showing their contempt by throwing it to trump. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. tonight on "all in." >> in the first spot, directly center stage, businessman billionaire donald trump. >> the stage is set. who will be standing with the unsinkable, unthinkable donald trump on thursday night? >> i think people are tired, sick and tired of incompetent politicians. plus the push to shut down to government using planned parenthood, the pranking on the campaign trail and a little tmi from the governor of new jersey. >> i'm a catholic but i've used birth control and not just the rhythm method. >> "all in" starts right now. good evening from new york, i'm alex wagner in for chris hayes.