good afternoon from cleveland, ohio where the anticipation is building. five hours from now, the top 10 republican presidential candidates will take the stage. this may be the most anticipated presidential primary debate in history. i'm steve kornacki live from

k4r50e68d. cleveland. it will be the largest republican stage. donald trump is leading in the polls, he's expected to touchdown in his private plane this hour. trump vows he's going to keep his rhetoric on a high level. will anyone attack him. his closest rival spent part of his day today testing out his podium. a shout out to lebron james. it's trump who enters as the king of this race. he'll be flanked by bush and scott walker. what happens tonight? how will donald trump do will we see fireworks? we'll find out as the candidates face off for the first time. joining me now is chris matthews, also mitt romney's deputy campaign manager in the 2012 presidential race. and msnbc political correspondent casey hunt.

let's start with you, chris matthews, all eyes are going to be on donald trump. the first time we see him on stage. i'm wondering, does he have more to worry about from the other candidates who are up there with him, or these months raters. >> i think the moderators are his problem. they're very respected people in the business they're not people can did, throw them off to the side. if he tries that he will be booed, if people don't hear the booing, they'll be doing it at home. he can't go after megyn kelly. they're going to ask tough questions, the real test of wits, when he doesn't answer the question or comes off with some off the wall response like i'm going to get the mexicans to pay are to the wall. when they say come on now, what happens then? that's when it becomes

mano-a-mano. he cannot bully them tonight. if he does he will lose. george herbert walker bush or his sons jeb, whatever the latest bush is is not going to threaten this guy, megyn kelly may just do itp. >> this feels like the first time he's going to be on a level playing field with members of the media. he's had the crowd in the room behind him, single out a reporter in the back of the room attack them. you have these moderators that have credibility. they are tough. chris wallace is a very tough interviewer. megyn kelly is a tough interviewer. how do you think trump should handle it? >> you should say the late karl rove. >> haven't heard from him since. >> these are moderators that are liked with conservatives, he's not going to be abe will to bully them as chris said the challenge he has, he doesn't

have a second ago the. that's sort of his way of going about things the reason he's enjoying popularity people see him as someone with a lot of strength. this is a different audience than what he's been going after in the past. >> the movement toward trump has been something to watch in the polls. back in june he asked the question in in a fox news poll which he would never vote for this candidate. donald trump 33% now say they would never vote for him. that's cut in half from where it was in june. that's how much progress he's made among republicans. let me bring you in on this. here's the question. what is a successful night tonight for donald trump, just no damage done? or is he going for something more bold here? >> i don't think that no damage done is going to be considered a victory for trump necessarily. i think it would be a victory for several other candidates on

the stage, notably jeb bush and scott walker. it would be nice for them to stand out. but a mistake could be devastating. for trump, the question is whether or not he comes out of this still in control of and on the top of this narrative. or is this the point at which the trump bubble ultimately bursts. it's pretty clear he's shown he can survive the kinds of mistakes that many other traditional candidates just can't weather, that they come across looking unprepared or unready. voters seem to have a different expectation for how trump's going to come across. that said i think this is an extraordinary unpredictable situation, we've never seen before really in politics i think to a certain extent all bets are off, it's certainly possible that trump could come out of this as a diminished figure. it's possible he comes out in exactly the same place that he's going in which is on top. >> let's talk about the other big name here besides donald

trum. p that's jeb bush. we thought he was going to be the big front-runner, jeb clearly trump has gotten under his skin privately. this was from politico today, jeb describing trump as a buffoon, a clown, a word i can't say on television. clearly trump is getting under bush's skin. >> well what's a jeb? >> okay the other guy is a buffoon and a bad word we can't use, what's jeb bush? he's nothing. he has shown nothing. he has a famous name it's sort of his turn that's it. i'm telling you, the guy -- >> he's a successful two-term governor. >> how many years ago. >> let me tell you something, his name is bush and that's how he got to be governor as well. let me tell you, this is king of the hill tonight. if trump gets pulled off the

hill he'll lose tonight. if he doesn't win, that's a huge story and an unexpected story, to me the story line is trump wins, he trumps because these other guys aren't in his league. it's a home game for him. television is where he lives. these other guys are putting on acts planning stuff, figuring out what they're going to say tonight. he could walk on there without any thought and beat them. these other guys are learning a dance for the occasion. he is donald trump. who is jeb bush. i don't know -- what is he? >> take a look at this numbers. these are our new numbers, we asked voters across the country, look at these numbers, 26% positive, 40% negative. >> he's been around forever. >> what does it say after six months of jeb bush's campaign. it started off with all this talk of endorsements, we're looking at a field of 17

candidates and these kinds of pole numbers. >> the republican nomination isn't going to be a coronation like the democrat one is. if you combine both bushes and trump's poll numbers, you get to about 33%. that means that 67% of republican voters are choosing someone else or haven't made a choice yet. there's a big opportunity tonight for people to shine if they can step out from donald trump's shadow. he's an entertainer, he's going to do well in forums like this on television. at the end of the day, he's not going to be the republican nomination. >> every time you poll people you say, who do you want to be president and 8 out of 10 or 9 out of 10 regularly say not bush. he's been around forever. he's the establishment. >> and there are 16 other candidates. >> because of this, why are there so many other candidates? they don't think bush is going to be the nominee. >> that's fine, it may be

someone else but it's not going to be donald trump pp i would bet my life on it. >> i don't think anyone should say that any more. >> every time we mention donald trump's name. he's at 20%, 25%. we always seem to add right away, not that he has any chance of winning the nomination or being president. this has gone on longer this has been more enduring than anyone expected so far, is it fair to say donald trump doesn't have a shot at this? >> i have to be honest with you, the republicans that i have talked to since i have been here on the ground and obviously all the top candidates they are taking trump more seriously than i have ever heard them take him before. there are conversations that start with phrases like well if trump isn't there, maybe we could win south carolina. the idea that if trump manages to get through iowa and to south carolina, i'm only saying

that to try to illustrate to you that suddenly there are plausible scenarios, we have trump in this when voters are starting to go to the polls. that's the difference. i don't think anyone expected him to stick through this process for too long. if you remember, he used to have i areality show to go back to. and his comments have made people server ties with him. at this point why would he not stay in, and if the numbers stay where they are, these other campaigns are suddenly having to grapple with this in a way that's much more real than it has been before? >> the way i looked at this he never filed as a candidate. he files as a can i did date. candidate. >> i was surprised and i agree. i was surprised, but i learned, i watched this thing. jack kennedy could not be elected president because he's roman catholic all the smart

people said it was doable. a guy named jimmy carter couldn't possibly get elected. barack hussein obama didn't have a prayer of being elected president, he was. don't make these big predictions about who will be elected president, they're always wrong. >> they're not always wrong. >> donald trump has a chance to be president of the united states. for anyone who says he doesn't, you must know a lot more than anybody. what do you know that i don't know? >> i know he's all the things you just said. he's a clown, a buffoon. >> i didn't say he was a clown -- that's what jeb bush said about him. he's afraid of the guy. >> is jeb bush is saying -- what did he say to his face what happens in that again. this is the test if donald trump can clear another hurdle here, that no one thought he could get over before. >> who has a better chance than

trump? who? >> the one guy left standing. >> jeb bush? >> no i'm not advocating for jeb push. >> who might stand out, who might steal the spotlight. is that possible? and what the other debate the so-called happy hour under the bush 41 we have a lot more for you from cleveland just ahead. ♪ every auto insurance policy has a number. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. those who have served our nation. have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life.

my cut hurt. >>mine hurt more. >>mine stopped hurting faster! neosporin plus pain relief starts relieving pain faster and kills more types of infectious bacteria neosporin plus pain relief kills the germs. fights the pain. use with band-aid brand. ooh i think i saw dessert! but you just had a big lunch! wasn't that big steve... hey! come back here, steven stay strong! what's that? you want me to eat you? honey, he didn't say that! he did, very quietly... you can't hear from back there! don't fight your instincts. with each 150 calories or less try our chocolatey brownies, tangy lemon bars and new creamy cheesecakes. fiber one. go on, have one!

♪ they lived. ♪ they lived. ♪ they lived. ♪ (dad) we lived... thanks to our subaru. ♪ (announcer) love. it's what makes a subaru a subaru.

we're back live from cleveland, in what's sure to be an eventful night.

donald trump and jeb bush the front-runners, eight others going to be on stage tonight with them vying for the nation's attention. including four current and former governors, scott walker from wisconsin, chris christie from new jersey. john kasich from ohio where we are right now, also three senators marco rubio, ted cruz and rand paul and a retired neurosurgeon. we'll try to make an impact for marco rubio, that means being himself. >> i'm not running against any of the people on that stage, i'm running for president. i was going toen sad on that stage, no matter who was on there, and talk about who i am what my vision is of what america can be in the future. and what it's going to take to get there. >> for rand paul that means going against the advice of his campaign advisers and mixing it up. >> i like to mix it up my staff is saying we need to be cautious. i like to mix it up it doesn't

mean it has to be impolite or rude rude, really we have do mix it up. this campaign is about who can best lead the country. >> back with me now hardball host chris matthews and michael steele. let me start with the chairman here, you look at the rest of this field, we talked about bush and trump. eight others on the stage, there's an opportunity here a risk too, but an opportunity for them to go toe to toe with trump and get some attention you look at those other eight, can you see somebody there pulling it off? >> i do you saw the rand paul clip. i think he wants to but not in a way that's fiery and gets crazy, making a point, we're not going to sit here and let donald trump take control of the stage. i think that's going to be true for rand and kasich. i think he's making a

significant move right now for someone like chris christie who's watching that mantle of telling it like it is from donald trump, i'll be interested to see how he battled that back. >> chris christie was talking in advance of this debate. let's listen to what he had to say. >> we're going to be bring a little jersey to the campaign and the white house. i think you all know this this is going to start thursday night in cleveland, ohio. >> well chris this raises the potential of quite a spectacle, chris christie and donald trump, the two loudest guys in the room going at each other here i mean chris christie's campaign has been looking to this night as the restart moment. he has it now maybe against donald trump, can you see him doing that? >> it could be a real new york fight. ralph kramden, jackie gleason,

no, no no you, you, you, no you, stupid fights it could be meaningless, you're right, how does chris christie he's a big man, he has to go in there and pretend he's small? no, he has to be big. he's known for being mouthy he has to go mouthy against the new guy that's the new mouth. i think that's one where it's hard for him to pull back he has to fight trump. >> can you win that fight? >> what i love about this is no notes on the table, obviously, no writing on the hand it is about spontaneity. the people that come in there, you walk in there with some perfect buy centennial moment your people have everybody issed up for you, we will hear that, we will know that's written ahead of time. then the guy will try to come back and after about four

exchanges back and forth, the guy that keeps going is who? who can keep talking. trump is the only one i know. he will never run out of stuff. to most of these people in politics, nothing comes to mind you hear me? this is a very important thing. nothing comes to mind they're out on the stage, there's a lot of pressure and nothing comes into their head and they're sitting there thinking what can i use that my staff gave me to use. >> is the moment that i think was the end of the tim pawlenty campaign, he had the canned attack on mitt romney in one of those early debates over romney care and obama care. he tried to pull it off. it was clearly rehearsed. romney looked at him and said nice try. >> guys who have facility out there, trump has it christie has a little bit of it but he's still living off the time he told that woman not to give him

hell for sending his kids to catholic school. everyone thought it was faux bullying turned out it was real bullying. >> the risk of potentially being too negative let's hear what he said about that. >> we have to make sure we abide by reagan's 11th commandment as much as we can, and don't give out too much mudslinging, let some jabs go by as well. >> is that possible or are we in for a mud fight tonight? >> heck no. once the lights and cameras go on you're on that stage, your name is announced, it's game on. all of that from the rnc's perspective, trying to keep everyone on the table it doesn't work. to chris's point, if you have to make and score a point. you're going to make and score that point. if you don't have the capacity to stay in that game, it's going to be obvious. you lash out. you over react and over respond

and the whole thing falls apart. you're not hoping for that as i anational chairman. but you realize you really can't control this. you send the record out early on. everyone will cooperate, and we're going to remember the 11th commandment. i think you made this point earlier today, the 11th commandment was when ronald reagan had the lead. >> yeah ronald reagan, the 11th commandment. >> by the way, the chairman of the party has set up all these rules, a certain number of debates, a certain number of approved moderators, you have to partner with organizations. >> they get really mad, when we did the reagan library debate a couple cycles ago, and someone asked, who believes in evolution here a reasonable question. it goes to so many aspects of science and how you get to truth. they got really mad at that. it exposed a couple of them a particular point of view about

science. >> i would like to think that fox is brazen enough to ask what they call bizarre questions, it's those bizarre questions, they really tell you who you're dealing with here. that's a bad start, okay? if they don't believe in had lucy, they think all those bones were planted out there, the whole thing was some sort of ruse. if they believe that, slow down before you make the president -- >> we've been hearing the fox moderators have spent months now going through hundreds of thousands -- i'll be curious to see what they come up with. >> who is the dark horse here who is the one of those ten we're not talking about now, who maybe we are talking about tomorrow? >> wow! one of those ten? i don't think the dark horse is on the 9:00 stage, i think the dark horse is on the 5:00 stage. >> who is it? >> carly fiorina. >> i don't really like huckabee.

i don't buy his country boy stuff, i think he's vicious. >> i do think he has a beautiful voice, beautiful way of representing himself, and he could do it. the guy i'm rooting for is kasich. you can argue what a president looks like it could be o a woman or an african-american guy. kasich looks like him, he's not learning to dance for the occasion, he really is the guy we've all known for 30 40 years, i would like to see authenticity respected and applauded for true authenticity for once. not someone that learned an act. >> my one to watch is ted cruz he has the training and background in these settings in debate in public speaking. >> do you like him or not? >> i think he's a talented politician. >> do you like him? >> i have no personal opinion. >> no personal opinion? >> i never met him.

he's done your show he hasn't done my show. when he does my show, i'll make an opinion. >> it's all personal. >> making me squirm. he's a talented politician, i'll stick with that assessment. watch chris matthews on a special edition of hardball. we'll have much more coming up from cleveland as the countdown continues for the first republican debate. including what topics will dominate. and a look at the happy hour debate, the one set with seven candidates who didn't make it into the main event. stay with us. . ...and one that's sweet. to satisfy the adult.... ...and kid - in all of us. ♪ ♪ nutritious wheat for the adult you've grown into. and delicious sweet for the kid you'll never outgrow... feed your inner kidult...

...with frosted mini-wheats® and now you could win up to a hundred dollars when you buy any specially marked kellogg's cereal. ♪ ♪ no student's ever been the king of the campus on day one. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. why should over two hundred years of citi history matter to you? well, because it tells us something powerful about progress: that whether times are good or bad, innovators with great ideas will continue to drive the world forward. as log as they have someone to believe in them. for more than two centuries we've helped progress makers turn their ideas into reality. and the next great idea could be yours.

look at us back in school! i had the whitest smile. now i'm going to show up to the reunion with this whole situation. oh please. do what i'm doing. use crest whitestrips! crest 3d white whitestrips... remove 14 years of stains. i knew i recognized that smile. crest 3d white whitestrips the way to whiten. did you leave behind something reliable? something that felt like... home?

and now you can't connect the way you used to... because you switched wireless carriers and are getting a less reliable connection. it's okay. we're still here for you and we'll be happy to have you back on a reliable network. come home to verizon and get 10 gigs for $80 a month plus $15 per line. only at verizon. how much protein does your dog food have? 18%? 20? introducing nutrient-dense purina one true instinct with real salmon and tuna and 30% protein. support your active dog's whole body health with purina one. it is game day mere in cleveland, the first republican debate just now over four hours away. all sorts of anticipation and speculation, who's going to go after trump, how will trump

respond? will there be a surprise star tonight. someone who gets off the perfect line at just the perfect moment. debates can produce big moments. to help get ready for this one, we thought we would take a look back at some of the most famous debate zingers in presidential history. >> i served with jack kennedy, i knew jack kennedy, jack kennedy was a friend of mine. senator, you're no jack kennedy. >> is governor reagan began his political career campaigning around this nation against medicare. >> there you go again. >> i will not make age an issue of this campaign i am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponents youth and inexperience. >> had your father was right to stand up to mccarthy.

you were wrong to question my patriotism. >> it's not what's your philosophy and position on issues, but can you get things done? and i believe i can. >> you mention the navy for example, and we have fewer ships than we did in 1916. well governor we also have fewer horses and bayonets because the nature of our military's changed, we have these things called aircraft carriers where planes land on them. >> will we see one of those moments here tonight. we're going to ask john sununu, stay with us. you are adorable. thank you. ladies your belts all snugged up? why do we have to buckle up? the pick up stinks with diesel. [ding] you've got to be kidding! oh please! ah! this is the end! oh my god! [brakes screech] we need resuscitation. mouth-to-mouth resuscitation.

hurry up! [laughing] so this beauty can be yours with a down payment and 10% financing. oh larry, lawrence. thanks to the tools and help at experian.com, i know i have a 798 fico score. [score alert text sound] [score alert text sound] oh. that's the sound of my interest rate going down. according to this score alert, my fico score just went up to 816. 816. 816! 816! fico scores are used in 90% of credit decisions. so get your credit swagger on. go to experian.com become a member of experian credit tracker and take charge of your score.

vo: with beyond natural dry pet food, you can trust our labels. when we say real meat is the first ingredient, it is number one. when we say there's no corn, wheat or soy it's not there. learn more at purinabeyond.com we're back live from cleveland, and look at this donald trump has landed. you can see trump's private plane is on the ground here in cleveland, he'll be making his way to the arena for that debate a few hours from now. what questions will the

candidates be asked about tonight. tonight's moderators have spent weeks writing and rewriting about 100 potential questions. we can be sure that immigration, the iran nuclear deal planned parenthood funding will be a big focus tonight. joining me now is andrea mitchell host of msnbc's andrea mitchell reports. and reporter for the new york times jeremy peters. i love that scene, the populous champion is arriving in a private jet. >> is this how do you know it's trump's plane? >> it's a small letter there with his name on it i couldn't quite make it out. let's talk about a few of these issues. yesterday the president seemed to be anticipating this debate he came out yesterday, offered a response to his critics from this. we're going to hear 10 candidates up and down poopooing this. >> i don't think they cannen sad out, they all agree this is a terrible deal.

and all trying to show how much they support netanyahu against barack obama's deal. and that's partly the still undeclared shilden adelson pramry, who is goingpram ry primary, who is going to get the pac money from supporters. i think the -- i mean mike huckabee has already gone further than anyone else in trashing the deal. i think there are lines to go against what the president did. what the president did yesterday was edgy in almost an hour he really laid into -- >> i mean, he was saying yesterday, if you, if congress doesn't approve this deal we're going to war. >> and mitch mcconnell and others who are hardly as far right as some of the candidates on this stage took them to task. >> i think they will go after him on that. >> i think immigration is the most interesting. on immigration, jeb bush has to

show his true colors. is he going to stand up and defend his wife, family his -- against things that donald trump says? >> let's play a clip here this is donald trump on tuesday, talking about this border wall he's promising. this is the sort of thing we can probably expect tonight? let's take a listen to that? >> mexico will pay for the wall. >> what are you going to do? what are you going to say to them? you have to -- >> the tune of $2 billion? he's going to say, hey, forget it. >> bill bill they're making a fortune, mexico is making a fortune in the united states. it's becoming the new china, in terms of trade. they're killing us at the border, i have a lot of respect in mexico, i have hundreds, actually thousands of mexicans that have worked for me over the years. >> so jeremy, i guess the question is, can he get away with that tonight? i'm imagining chris wallace, megyn kelly, they're going to ask that exact same question, they're going to say i want to

know specifically mexico is going to pay for this wall how are you going to make them do that? >> i don't think we're going to see much different. there's not going to be any reigned in trump tonight. i would guess, it's funny, i ask pat buchanan about this the other day. if there's one person to ask, it would be the man whose candidacy trump is emulating, and that's pat buchanan. >> he said you know you got to -- when you go to the dance, you have to dance with the girl who brought you, by that he means, you have to play to the people who are giving you all the support, right now, those are the people who like to see him agitating, hurling insults, i don't think he has much reason to be nice trump. >> is you alluded to this a minute ago, this is part of the predicament that jeb bush is in here, he said at the beginning of the campaign. he said he wants to be willing to lose the primary to win the general election. and immigration is the perfect illustration of that. he wants to be running as the

moderating voice of immigration, how is he going to get through a primary, when donald trump is able to become the front-runner by saying the things he said. >> by a sister soldier moment by saying what he believes he said he didn't want to run initially if he couldn't do it joyfully, it strikes me this has not been a joyful experience so far. at some point jeb bush is going to have to stand up if he wants to distinguish himself. he's got the money, he's got a lot of establishment support and he can ride this out and try to keep his head down and let the donald trump summer romance flame out. but if you wait too long maybe he won't flame out. maybe donald trump is in it for the long distance. >> there's that question of he hasn't shown he has blood in his veins as a candidate. he's not shown that kind of vigor even his brother, i think back to george w. bush now, i have more of an appreciation for george w. bush as a public speaker as sort of a -- he

touched into a populous thing with the way he spoke, and jeb has not really shown that he can do that. >> he hasn't debated in almost a decade, right? >> we saw the rustiness monday night in new hampshire. talking to republicans about how to respond specifically there is a nervousness there, there's a nervousness that he infects the party's brand damages it more than it already is. there's a real thinking if they don't try to take trump down he's going to take them down and drag him with them. >> and let's -- i want to make sure we get into planned parenthood, as you said not much difference here not much daylight between all these candidates. this is also one of those issues where you think there could be consequences outside of the primary season you have to say this to get through the primary, then it will immediately be used against you. hillary clinton is already using this against the republicans now? >> on planned parenthood the videos are awful, whether or not they're edited is really

immaterial, the fact that there was such casual conversation about the nature of the fetal tissue harvesting it is known that this -- it takes place, they claim and they've been backed up by this they don't make money off of it it's just the cost this is a really important part of medical research on alzheimer's, on parkinsons, on all sorts of diseases. that said it's horrific. in our latest poll just this week the two most popular institutions more so than the republican party the democratic party, any other group, the national rifle association at 42%. and planned parenthood at 45%. except for 3% of their work that deals with abortions, that does not have any federal or state or local money, nongovernment money, and money is fundable. but they raise private money for their abortion services. all of their other work is medical care for women in need.

mostly women who do not have breast cancer screening. do not have other medical services. that is where planned parenthood has had a tremendous support across the width and breadth of this -- >> there's a big constituency there. we looked at 2012 republicans say, we did some damage to ourselves. that is something to be watching for. that's the risk in these gee baits, you say something for your base that's not going to sell as well. andrea thanks for joining us. >> coming up minutes from now, the happy hour debate the kids table debate that one's going to be getting underway at the top of the hour. how will the seven candidates who didn't make the cut for the big stage, how will they get attention. much more live from cleveland. steve schmidt and john sununu coming up. after we are all inside for a while it gets pretty stuffy. when dad opens up the window

what's the first thing he does? the tobin stance. but when we open up the windows you can see the dust floating around. there's dog hair. pollen. more work. (doorbell) whoa! what's this? swiffer sweeper! swiffer dusters! removes up to 70% of dust and allergens. stays on there like glue. can't do that with the other broom. wow, i love it. the tobin stance! that is totally what it is!

i have type 2 diabetes. i started with pills. and now i take a long-acting insulin at night. i take mine in the morning. i was trying to eat right, stay active. but i wasn't reaching my a1c goal anymore. man: my doctor says diabetes changes over time. it gets harder to control blood sugar spikes after i eat and get to goal. my doctor added novolog® at mealtime for additional control. now i know. novolog® is a fast-acting, injectable insulin and it works together with my long-acting insulin. proven effective. the mealtime insulin doctors prescribe most. available in flexpen®. vo: novolog® is used to control high blood sugar in adults and children with diabetes. take novolog® as directed. eat a meal within 5 to 10 minutes after injection. check your blood sugar levels. do not take novolog® if your blood sugar is too low or you're allergic to any of its ingredients. tell your doctor about all medical conditions

and medicines you take. ask your doctor about alcohol use, operating machinery, or driving. the most common side effect is low blood sugar. symptoms may include dizziness, sweating, confusion, and headache. severe low blood sugar can be life-threatening. other common side effects include low potassium in your blood and injection site reactions. get medical help right away if you experience trouble with breathing serious allergic reactions like swelling of your face tongue, or throat, sweating, extreme drowsiness dizziness, or confusion. now i know about novolog®. taken by millions since 2001. vo: ask your health care provider about adding novolog®. it can help provide the additional control you may need. esurance was born online. they have smart online tools which saves money. they settle claims quickly which saves money. they drive an all-hybrid claims fleet which saves money. they were born online, and built to save money, which means when they save you save. click or call.

we're back live in cleveland where donald trump just touched down. joining me now is former new hampshire governor and former white house chief of staff john sununu. thanks for taking a few minutes. let me ask you the question we've been throwing around here throughout the hour. it seems like we're almost conditioned when we mentioned donald trump to say, but he can't win the nomination. but he can't win the president densecy. how do you look at this? is donald trump a serious contender to win the republican nomination? or is he a flash in the pan? >> i think you're going to find that after a couple months the serious contenders will move to the top, and it will be the kind of a campaign everyone anticipated earlier. right now you're in the noise and bluster phase where anybody who's willing to say anything

audacious can get you guys talking about it and when you talk about it they get publicity, and when they get publicity, they move up in the polls. when people get serious, they're not going to react to the words, they're going to react to the individuals and i think you're going to see them move to the serious candidates at that point. >> let me ask you about -- i assume you're including jeb bush in that list. the struggle jeb bush has had to move his poll numbers up we put this up early, i'll show it again. his favorable number with all voters out here this is the new nbc survey. 26% favorable. can look back this time, 16 years ago, his brother george w. was in the same position running for the republican nomination, look at a poll from 16 years ago, he was 40 points ahead of his challengers at that point. jeb bush nowhere near those numbers now, when you look at the first six months of the jeb bush campaign, has it been a disappointment? >> the whole process has changed

over time and i think what you're seeing is the principle candidates have been doing what they have to do behind the scenes lining up financial supporters putting a team together, it's still too early, nothing really happens until the kids go back to school. if these numbers hold up into october and november i think he'll worry, but i think you'll see a change at that point. i think there's four or five six candidates that are serious candidates, once they start getting their footing, it's going to be a real horse race. >> john sununu former governor of new hampshire, thanks for taking a few minutes, appreciate it. we're going to send it over to cnbc's jane wells who has the market wrap. >> well steve, let's hope the debate does something for the market earnings were disappointed today. it was another down day. the dow falling triple digits, again dow down 120 points.

that's the latest from cnbc business. do you want to know how hard it can be to breathe with copd? it can feel like this. copd includes chronic bronchitis and emphysema. spiriva is a once-daily inhaled copd maintenance treatment that helps open my airways for a full 24 hours. spiriva helps me breathe easier. spiriva respimat does not replace rescue inhalers for sudden symptoms. tell your doctor if you have kidney problems, glaucoma, trouble urinating, or an enlarged prostate. these may worsen with spiriva respimat. discuss all medicines you take even eye drops. if your breathing suddenly worsens, your throat or tongue swells you get hives, vision changes or eye pain or problems passing urine stop taking spiriva respimat and call your doctor right away.

side effects include sore throat cough, dry mouth and sinus infection. nothing can reverse copd. spiriva helps me breathe better. to learn about spiriva respimat slow-moving mist ask your doctor or visit spirivarespimat.com

most of the attention is on the ten candidates who are going to be on the main stage tonight. some of the biggest fireworks could come in the undercard, the other debate which is going to start in a few minutes from now. they will take the stage for the so-called happy hour debate. joining me now is former senior adviser of the mccain presidential campaign steve schmidt schmidt. let me put this up on the screen. this is how they ended up in this debate this is how they're polling. rick perry 3% jindal at 1. the rest of them not even registering. let me ask you this, i mean traditionally, you think back it's the ames straw poll the candidates who didn't do well

there, a couple of them drop out of the race every four years, are some of these seven going to drop out soon? >> no not at all. we deflate the importance of these debates, the thing that is immediately in front of us is the most important thing that will define the race. this will be over in the morning. a lot of debates to come. rick perry has per rm toed brill yentsly over the last couple months. he's given three big important speeches. he's someone who has every potential to get a second look i think he'll be a factor in this race. carly fiorina has performed brilliantly on the stump. you look at her perform ns as in new hampshire, iowa with a, she will be a factor before all of this is done. i think carly will certainly wine up on the vp short list. one of the most effective communicators and obviously, when it comes to lindsey graham he's the quickest witnessed, funniest person in either one of these debates, and he's someone with a lot of important things to say, with regard to national

security issues and he's going to have an impact in this race before it's all over. >> how do they have that -- i think of that old conundrum when you're first starting out in the working world. every job demands the experience, you have to get the experience to get the job to get the experience. you have to get to that big debate stage so you can get heard. how does a rick perry, carly fiorina make the top ten? we're going to do this again in a month. >> all these candidates are tied. there's no statistical difference between john kasich rick perry and chris christie. there's a certain arbitrariness to the decision as he poll the herd of ten. when the candidates have a chance as this race starts to take shape. we haven't gotten to this part of the race where the candidates have gone after each other, it's not until the candidates start to enjane each other, as someone takes on donald trump, scott

walker makes his move against bush, and marco rubio against bush and walker the chess game starts to play out, that's when those tech tonic plates move when they move the friction causes a chance for movement for a number of these other can i did dates. it's important to remember you go back to 2004 on the democratic side a week before the iowa caucuses the names kerry and edwards were not mentioned on a single sunday show. it was president dean and gephardt. no one saw rick santorum coming there's going to be a lot of action between today and this had -- and the first voting states, there will be a lot of movement, it's a long time to go. and at the end of the day, right? management is an underappreciated virtue in a presidential campaign. persistence, one foot in front of the other, these are absolutely essential characteristics of someone who survives this process, and those people at the debate in the earlier version of it today, you

know, they'd rather be on the main stage for sure but certainly they're going to have their opportunities. >> we'll see. another metaphor. the nit to the ncaa tournament. we'll see how those seven handle it, and the others coming up in a few hours. steve schmidt thank you for joining that. what will the headline be coming out of the main debate tonight. you're watching msnbc live in cleveland. you owned your car for four years. you named it brad. you loved brad. and then you totaled him. you two had been through everything together. two boyfriends. three jobs. you're like "nothing can replace brad!" then liberty mutual calls. and you break into your happy dance. if you sign up for better car replacement, we'll pay for a car that's a model year newer with 15,000 fewer miles than your old one. see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. watch as these magnificent

creatures take flight, soaring away from home towards the promise of a better existence. but these birds are suffering. because this better place turned out to have a less reliable cell phone network and the videos on their little bird phones kept buffering.

birds hate that. so they came back home. because they get $300 from switching back to verizon, and so can you! verizon. come home to a better network. ♪ ♪ no student's ever been the king of the campus on day one. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. ♪ i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪

and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet? just in case you were wondering what cheerios are made of whole. grain. oats. moments ago, donald trump stepping off his plane in cleveland. time for some predictions here what the headlines are going to be coming out of this debate. let me start with you tomorrow morning after this debate what are we talking about? >> i'm going to be watching walker and rubio, and some of

the first tier candy dates that aren't bush. he has to prove he's flew an the in the foreign and domestic policy. rubio needs to break out. he slipped a little bit in the polls, and he was the golden boy, the guy that had so much potential i don't think it's over by any stretch. he has to have a moment. >> steve schmidt a headline for tomorrow, what do you think? >> i'm not sure what the headline is going to be other than the word trump will be in it donald trump has hijacked this race he's the front-runner for the republican nomination. their campaigns are increasingly defined in relation to his, tonight we'll see -- there will certainly be moments where the moderators instigate confrontation.

instigate confrontation between donald trump and these candidates, we'll see what happens when the gloves start flying. who's going to make the highlight reel. we'll see how it plays out. >> i agree with you, trump will be in the headlines tomorrow. steve schmidt jerry peters sorry we didn't have enough time to get to you. i'm steve kornacki in cleveland, stay with our live coverage a special edition of hardball with chris matthews at 7:00 eastern time right here on msnbc, michael eric dyson is up next. was i'm michael eric dyson, tonight going rogue. the undercard will any of the