event. rand paul scott walker and rick perry seemed to do themselves more harm than good. jeb bush clearly survived while as expected donald trump dominated the night. we start the hour live at that meeting in atlanta. nbc's kelly o'donnell is there. kelly, you're at the red state gathering. that's where they enjoy the reddest of red meat. very conservative group. do you expect the candidates to pump up but some like jeb bush may encounter a hostile crowd. what is it like on the ground there? >> reporter: real there's real electricity here, luke in part because they're active conservatives. they get out and vote. they donate. they work for campaigns. candidates and issues they care about. and the electricity is in part because they watched last night and they have an assessment and to see many of them in person today and tomorrow and hear them at length. participants satd ss said they to

get hear a full speech and a real chance to immense themselves in what the candidates are saying and they're tailoring remarks to issues that malter to this conservative group. so you do hear about traditional marriage, you do hear about being pro-life against abortion rights. you do hear about religious liberty. the kinds of themes that play extra large in a setting like this. so there is enthusiasm and this is from talking to people in the crowd ted cruz for example, plays very well among the about 800 attendees here. but they're giving a respectful listen to those coming who might not be as typically a part of this base. you mentioned jeb bush. we'll see how it goes. chris christie this morning. he was a guest here. well received. and he made his remarks be more focused to issues this audience wanted to talk about. a pro-life governor in a blue state and that's the atmosphere and exciting and electric today. luke? >> follow kelly's reports across

the nbc platforms. thanks so much for the time kelly. bring in republican strategists. thank you so much both of you for coming on. susan, i want to start out with you. the republican came on here today. megyn kelly, for the amount of pressure the fox moderators were under, did an extraordinary job. she asked donald trump about the past treatment of women. take a listen. >> you've called women you don't like fat pigs dogs slobs and disgusting animals. >> only rosie o'donnell. >> no. it wasn't. >> excuse me. >> for the record it was well beyond rosie o'donnell. >> yes i'm sure. oftentimes it's fun, it's kidding. we have a good time. what i say is what i say. >> susan, i feel like any other candidate in this day and age,

they said those things they would be sinking and sinking fast. how did donald trump do on that question and what's it mean for the future that kelly highlighted it? >> well i think he did okay in the response but then afterwards he really laid into her pretty hard and saying used to be you never pick a fight with someone with a barrel of ink. i don't think republican running in a primary should pick a battle with a fox moderator and interesting to see how fox handles this. >> especially one as revered as she is. jimmy, two candidates of the clinton camp has their eyes on rubio and walker. both went after her last night quite aggressively. way tonight play that clip and get you to react. >> if i'm our nominee, how's hillary clinton going to lecture me about living paycheck to paycheck? i was raised living paycheck to paycheck. how will she lecture me about student loans?

i owed over $100,000 just four years ago. if i'm our nominee, we will be the party of the future. >> for the cyber attack with the russia it is sad to think right now but probably the rush yn and chinese government know more about hillary clinton's e-mail server than do the members of the united states congress. >> now, jimmy, scott walker pretty reserved in the night. probably his best zinger. rubio in that answer not only did he go after hillary clinton but throwing shade at jeb bush, essentially saying he's entitled ones. clintons can go after him with that respect, i walk the walk. a heck of an answer from rubio. >> that was not lost on anyone that was watching that debate. i thought rubio did a great job last night. john kasich chris christie came out swinging in their own sort of different -- their own ways. scott walker i didn't -- i wasn't uplifted by most of what

scott walker said last night. but i will say this. rubio was refreshed on that debate stage. that was a 180-degree turn from giving that really bad state of the union rebuttal several years ago. >> the water bottle night. >> it was not a good night for him. last night was a good night for marco rubio. but you mentioned this a minute ago. the three winners of that debate last night, i'm going to say this and going to catch grief for it, megyn kelly, bret baeir and jim. i was impressed by that. i was frankly shocked by that. >> well they certainly are first rate did a heck of a job. susan, jimmy mentioned john kasich, sort of become the darling of the center left media crowd by the debate performance and this answer about gay

marriage with a lot of applause from the debate crowd. very different from what we saw in 2012 when conservative audiences booed this question. i went to take a listen. >> because somebody doesn't think the way i do doesn't mean that i can't care about them or can't love them. so if one of my daughters happened to be that of course i would love them and i would accept them. issues like that are planted to dwooid divide us. this is where i would agree with job and i have been saying it. we need to give everybody a chance, treat everybody with respect and let them share in the great american dream. i have unconditional love i'll give it to those around me. >> fantastic answer, susan. one i'm sure folks at the rnc have been waiting to hear since the issue against them nationally. how important was it for kasich to say that? >> i think it was huge and does

reflect his momentum coming in to this race now. he did get in late. it was enough -- he did go on tv early in new hampshire and enough to get him into the debate. and now when you see someone like this from ohio who just won with 64% of the vote republicans are going to take a hard look at them at him. money people take a hard look. if he can lock up ohio that will really go a long way to republicans winning the white house in 2016. >> yeah. jimmy, he doesn't necessarily have the conservative credentials that a scott walker has. if you go back to his house career in the '90s, i would argue he's the precursor to paul ryan and does but you're a democratic strategist. i talked to one on the phone last night saying, luke, boy, if we had to face a ticket of kasich and rubio, that's tough. ohio florida, executive leadership, change. youth. i mean those two i feel they stood out last night and if by some chance came together, this's a heck of a ticket.

>> i agree that would be one heck of a ticket. the problem, though is that you have to look at states like california pennsylvania new york florida, et cetera. and the swing states north carolina virginia et cetera. young people just are not -- rubio and despite what john kasich said, i like whad he said, with respect to the marriage equality issue, but young people are just not with them on that. and so you've got to motivate them to get out and vote on those social issues specifically those social issues. either you're going to be with them and show up for you or you're not an they won't show up for you. we have seen that time and time again. and i think that would still be the case. they would be, though you're right. a formidable pairing in 2016 for the ticket. >> never going to go after california or new york. those are going to be clearly blue states. pennsylvania's a good point but -- >> right. >> and ohio and florida just to start off with -- >> huge tremendous. >> good footing. >> absolutely. that's right. >> and i would also agree with

you on that in terms of rubio, stepped in it on the abortion case and not saying an exemption in terms of rape and incest and got a lot of play. susan, back to you, though. someone who also emerged last night from the undercard, carly fiorina, very sharp, very polished. clearly prepared for this debate. definitely came out the star of that and what some people referred to as -- cracking into the top ten. the party would love to have her on the stage for a contrast of hillary clinton. >> if the next debate maybe two or three weeks away i would virtually guarantee a spot. a lot can happen and looks like momentum and raising money of off of this. people looking into her now and

refreshing and having a really well defined capable female on the ticket is certainly very positive for republicans. >> indeed. susan, jim any, thanks so much for your time. appreciate guys. >> thank you. fact checking the debate boasts and barbs and later is trump telling the truth saying that the media is against him? plus jon stewart's favorite political targets pay tribute in the final show. recap and much more ahead. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ geico motorcycle great rates for great rides. doers. they don't worry if something's possible. they just do it. at sears optical, we're committed to bringing them eyewear that works as hard as they do. right now, buy one pair and get another free. quality eyewear for doers.

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welcome back. here's nbc first read takeaways on the debate last night. despite the attention on donald

trump, rubio and say sick stood out from the rest. jeb bush and scott walker had solid but underwhelming performances. chris christie and rand paul with the most heated exchange on national security and a bit of perspective to many the winner of the democratic early debate in 2007 john edwards. you know what he's up to now. joining us now is nbc's kerry dan. thank you so much for making the time. give us a run down of what you put out this morning and saw it playing out. >> well that's right, luke. the clear spotlight in this debate was obviously on donald trump. all of the biggest hits of the night with the exception of that chris christie and rand paul fight mostly came involving trump and we saw the big winners being rubio and kasich two smooth performances and the donor class and sort of a consensus that the two folks had

a good night, sort of rose above maybe eclipsing jeb bush with stumbles along the way and we love new polling and always looking for it. i can't remember a moment i'm more excited about new polling showing the impact of the debate on voters in places like iowa and new hampshire and initially speculation of trump's mannerisms and the way he reacted to megyn kelly to make voters less favorable to him. we have been on the phones and not hearing that right now. they seem to be standing by trump, still like the way he's taking on the washington establishment. really can't wait to see new numbers from real voters talking about what they thought of every kand did it's performance in the debate. >> absolutely. looking for that. does trump survive? does jeb go down? where does walker end up? seeing that in a week or so. kay rhee dan, thank you for your time. >> all right.

the truth is not exactly a politician's creed. it was no exception last night as candidates made acquisitions and boasts about the job performances. here to separate fact from fiction for us is famed pinnochio giver, fact checker for "washington post," thank you for taking the time. >> glad to be with you. >> you went through a bevy of these. i read your piece. wonderful as always. biggest pinnochio of the night? >> well i was struck by the fact that two candidates ben carson and mike huckabee dredged up debunked claims of the 2012 campaign and as a fact checker, nothing worse than seeing stuff reappear from the dead like a zombie. so huckabee said that $700 billion worth of medicare funding went to fund obamacare. that's not right. didn't happen. and carson claimed that the navy now is at the smallest size

since 1917. and, frankly, if you comparing gun boats from 100 years ago to nuclear powered sub that arenas you have a problem about this. >> you quickly debunked that. scott walker talked about his economic record and said this. we'll get your reaction on the other side. >> before i came in the unemployment rate was over 8%. it's now down to 4.6%. we more than made up for the jobs lost in the recession. >> so, glen that's partially accurate? how did you guys rate that? >> well the problem with that is, you know a governor has some impact over an economy but, you know you're basically at the mercy of national economic trends and what he's describing is the broad general trend in unemployment rate across the nation. the kind of economic impact that republicans routinely criticize barack obama for having a slow

recovery. he would say i did that myself too. >> whoever's in charge can take some credit for that. we have seen that wave of governors in 2010 republican side do that opposed to white house saying it was their policies. marco rubio perhaps with his only slip-up of the night. he said this about an exemption to an abortion bill regarding rape and incest. >> how do you justify ending a life just because it begins violently through no fault of the baby? >> i'm not sure that's a correct assessment of my record. >> you don't favor a rape and an incest exemption? >> i have never said that. >> that's a bite that had the clinton camp happy. rubio is split on this. he sponsored a bill with the exemption and then sponsored bills without. >> right. i mean this is where you have to really pay attention to the language of politicians. notice he used the word

advocated. i have never advocated for that. but, you know you sponsor it and he's since come out and explained that well he you know, has supported bills. he supports bills generally that end abortions with or without xerpgss and you have to watch the languages of politicians in these events. >> correct. what does advocate actually mean and the definition? last one, jeb bush, he had some trouble during the course of the campaign answering questions of iraq. of course, his brother's war saying last night at the rise of isis could be directly attributed to president obama pulling out of iraq. he said this. >> barack obama became president and abandoned iraq. he left. when he left al qaeda was done for. isis created because of the void that we left. >> glen you have this as a four

pinnochio from the past. >> i did. that was -- four pinnochios for much more blunter language that jeb bush used and it is interesting here and not saying he's responding but it's a case and not allowed flourish. he should start to and there was no isis and al qaeda was ka put when he left office and now said some conditionality there and the fact is that al qaeda was not done for when bush took off and isis is actually largely outgrowth of the old al qaeda in iraq. and if you go back and look at the data from 2006 2007 when bush's brother was president, it's clear that what is now known as isis had announced its ambitions back then to create a state, an islamic state.

>> yes. it is -- i would argue it's not accurate at all to say that there is no al qaeda in iraq in the last day of the bush presidency. last ones here. chris christie talking about creating 192,000 jobs. yes, but that was 44th in the country? >> yes. that's exactly it. that's where context matters. 192,000 sounds good but actually stacked up against the other states, not at all. actually, you know speaking of christie, he also claimed that he was nominated for u.s. attorney on september 10th. he made this point twice. and we've learned this morning that actually he was nominated in december. campaign is now saying that he was heard he would be nominated and not the same way he put it in the debate and he -- >> that's a big one because that's what he was playing the role of the national security zealot last night and saying it totally changed his world. good of you guys to pick up on that one.

glen, mr. pinnochio himself, we appreciate it. you're always accurate. you tell us who deserves a pinnochio pinnochio. take care. >> thank you. you're welcome. next, the big political story this afternoon, the key democrat breaks the president over iran. still ahead, will it be life or death for theater shooter james holmes? very latest on that. ♪ ♪ no student's ever been the king of the campus on day one. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus...

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developing now, new york senior senator and one of barack obama's closest democratic allies says he can't stand by his president on the iran nuke deal. chuck schumer believes iran won't change and the agreement allows them to go further their goal of becoming a nuclear power. he is the highest ranking member of congress and extremely influential in democratic circles. he said for weeks his decision on this deal would be a tough one but how much tougher does it

make this issue for the president? joining me now is senior foreign affairs correspondent for politico michael crowley. thank you. >> thank you, luke. >> schumer released in the middle of the debate and knew it would down play it and ordly lead the show and smart guy, he said this though. in his statement. i thought it was very striking. this is language we have heard from republicans and committee hearings. i'm going to read it. quote, in the first ten years of the deal first inspections are not anywhere any time the 24-day delay is troubling while inspectors detect isotopes after 24 days that delay would allow iran to escape detection and approve a military dimension it is tool that is go into building a bomb and don't emit radio activity. that is a pretty forceful rebuke

of this deal. >> i think it is. i mean it is a thoughtful one, luke. i think that you know there are people making good faith arguments against the deal but a lot of what you hear on capitol hill, to be honest i think poorly informed hyper bollic historical partisan, not all of it. but this is one of the most thoughtful solidly analytical cases against the deal i have seen. the white house con tepiding here with a very influential jewish democrat coming out against the deal potentially giving cover to other democrats who are on the fence but also i think articulating, you know a pretty tough case against the deal. it is not the final word but he did a good job. >> oh he certainly did. and make no mistake about it, these words will be used in attacks against the deal for the duration after this month. millions of dollars are mobilizing against this deal from outside groups that do not like it.

let's put it in the context of does it really matter. chuck schumer saying that the vote is a vote of conscience. he's not actively at least publicly lobbying against the deal. he declined to go on sunday weekend shows and a shocker and rarely declines that opportunity. so if president obama basically has to get 34 senators to join with him and the house he had to make sure that nancy pelosi can stop the "ds" from 290 with the "rs" and seems the opposition of the deal of democrats concentrated on the tri-state area. new jersey new york and the jewish populations opposed to the deal with those groups. do you think this is a

catastrophic blow to the deal for president obama or something to work through for the rest of the month? >> my sense is that it's latter. you know it's been kind of fun watching the interpretations. the's sort of a hall of mirrors quality to this where everyone has a different theory and not sure what's going on and ascribe the powers to chuck schumer like this, you know it's happening -- the political master minding on so many levels and an argument saying coming out against it knowing the deal will survive and not going to you know sabotage the president in such a way unless he knows that they don't need need him or he knows it's going down and trying to get ahead of it and end of the day i think the simplest explanation is probably the truest one. he came down against it and but it's not a disaster because although the vote is still sort of up for grabs, he's not going to lobby against it. turning down the sunday shes for chuck schumer, that's not

going to an island and hiding out. shows real self restraint. i talked to a person involved this yesterday, has been talking to a lot of people on the hill. says this is by no means assured and nervous about it. i think it's up for grabs and a lot depends on how the next several weeks go down with the advertising, lobbying other members and too early to say right now and not good news for the white house, certainly. >> it is not. we should mention they did get gillibrand chuck schumer's junior colleague in new york and ted nelson an gus king and momentum up until the announcement of schumer and nancy pelosi never loses a vote i would argue. i think it's hard pressed to get to 290. you never know. now, the obama, the people close to the administration, some inside on the inside and out, the former speech writer had a tweet up essentially saying that dick durbin is now we have it up there becomes the league whip

for peace on earth. a huge jab at schumer. schumer becoming majority leader or continues as minority leader won't obtain the title until obama is gone and works with the next president. do you think it has a lasting effect on schumer's relationship with obama and the standing within the democratic party and might not like this public act of being disloyal? >> well i think people will remember it. you know? is it kind of front of mind for years to come? probably not. although with the exception of if it's a really close vote and the deal goes down and schumer is one of a small handful of members, who are considered potentially decisive that would be very different story. and my -- this is why i do think there's something to the therety that schumer coming out now suggests he thinks that the outcome is baked one way or the other. i think that's what people are thinking. that they understand schumer doesn't want to be known as having tipped the vote.

>> we should also mention that the energy in the party from all the progressive groups ones so important to the primaries, all support this deal. so that's also an interesting aspect. michael crowly thank you for the time. take care. >> thank you. what juries asked to see as they deliberate whether aurora theater shooter holmes should get the death penalty. first, what's happening with the weather. how's it look this weather? >> looks pretty qui yeet here in the state bus the pacific we're tracking typhoon soudelor. dealing with winds up to 115 miles per hour and maybe even 20 inches of rain. this is taking a jog to the north and it eels really a beeline for taipei. rough there in taiwan before weakening to china with winds still packing a punch around 75 to 80 miles per hour. closer to home all about the heat. the dangerous heat. in the south, take a lock at the

weekend we have waiting for us. heat index values in places like little rock 116 tomorrow. that's what it's going to feel like and sunday 111. not much better. the heat extends across the gulf states, montgomery. feeling like 111 on sunday. rest of the country, another beautiful weekend here in the northeast. you can see temperatures well into the 80s. sunny, low humidity. perfect combination there and unfortunately that heat for the center of the country, a couple of storms in the rockies and quiet on the west coast. new york city, boston d.c. beach and barbecue weather in full effect. baking in dallas with a high of 104. enjoy your weekend. we're back in three.

we're back. i'm luke russert. jurors are deliberating whether colorado movie theater shooter james holmes should be sentenced to life in prison or death. the judge allowed them to watch the 45-minute tape that warned them not to let it prejudice their decision. virginia revoked specialty

license plates with the confederate flag. the dmv will immediately begin to replace the 1,600 existing plates. just about an hour the first family departs for the annual summer vacation on martha's vineyard. this year, they're leaving a day earlier than usual. which means president obama michelle, sasha and malia will have 17 days for biking, ice cream, the beach and the president's favorite activity golf. see you on island first family. all right. turning back now to the big story of the day, the first gop debate and as you may have noticed things got a little testy between front-runner donald trump and the moderators last night. >> raise your hand now if you won't make that pledge tonight. >> you've called women you don't like fat pigs, dogs slobs, and disgusting animals. >> only rosie o'donnell. >> for the record it was well

beyond rosie o'donnell. >> yes. i've been very nice to you and i could probably maybe not be based on the way you have treated me. >> you have supported a host of liberal poll sis. you've also donated to several democratic candidates. >> trump corporations casinos and hotels declared bankruptcy four times over the last quarter century. with that record why should we trust you to run the nation's business? >> i don't think they like me very much. >> well certainly, those were interesting. this morning on msnbc's "morning joe," trump said he felt set up and singled out. >> i think my questions were you know somewhat unfair but it's fine. i was okay with it. i'm not sure that fox is fair necessarily. maybe i should just keep it going. >> so is trump right? is the media actually against him in robert thompson director of center of popular television and culture at syracuse. thank you for making time.

certainly, the host from fox had the swords out for donald trump. i would argue, though all the questions were more than fair. but donald trump runs a campaign based upon saying the media is full of b.s. the media is wrong. the media is sort of ruining america. in this case fox without doubt the pre-eminent destination for conservatives and a lot of input into how republican primaries move forward, can donald trump have this style against the media when in the opposition is coming from fox news? >> well it does. that does make it tougher. the question is, when's the underdog here? and also it's an equation i'm not sure he's going to be able to keep up. we should start out by looking to see if he's got any legitimate claims. i don't think those questions were unfair at all. i think those were perfectly legitimate questions as the media is trying to vet these candidates and ask questions

that are meaningful. actually, there were a lot of pretty tough questions asked to other candidates, as well. the only place where i suppose you might have been able to say last night was maybe a little questionable was when they started out with that pledge. that clearly was aimed at donald trump. and instead of posing it as a question to trump, they actually singled him out knowing he would be the only one would raise his hand so as far as the media unfair or too mean to him or whatever, in that debate, i don't think that's a legitimate claim. overall, i suppose we'd have to say that when trump first made his announcement there were an awful lot of stories about him having announced and there was an awful lot of stories in the papers and on tape about how we the media shouldn't be covering trump. that -- >> right. >> it is a circus and our fault that we're covering it. the huffing on the post made

that announcement to now do all trump stories on the entertainment page as opposed to the politics page. so he has been a subject that i think a lot of the people that cover politics and that are covering the lead-up to this election have not quite known what to do with. >> do you think that trump's tv experience helped him last night or hurt him? because as a media consumer i felt he was overperforming at times and then able to feed off the crowd in a way you don't necessarily see a politician do in their first debate. >> yeah. i mean he's certainly been in front of a camera a lot. he did that apprentice for what? ten seasons. >> yeah. >> but it doesn't seem like he's able to modulate according to circumstances. one could make the argument that that candid, blustery i say whatever i think kind of thing is a good launching pad toward what he seemingly is trying to do. i think, however, doing that

under the circumstances of a debate with nine other people up on the stage in front of you in fact didn't work. he knows how to hit his marks and deliver a line and in that context playing the same act. one gets a sense that he's a pony that does one trick really really well. but i think at that point, he would have done a lot better to play a little nicer and from all of those polls and focus groups and everything a lot of people who went into that debate feeling positively about trump came out of it feeling negatively and by the way that becomes important because that debate was seen by 24 million people. that's a lot of people. that's almost ten times the number of people who saw the other big tv event of the summer, "sharknado 3." >> absolutely. we can ask whether that's the trump effect or more people interested in participating civically. >> i think it's the trump

effect. >> let's -- i want to get you out of here with this on a broader question. there's 17 gop candidates in this race. i often feel that we in the media maybe we give too much oxygen to these candidates because it seems in a lot of them running for the free exposure running to get book deals, to bolster the image and take the free marketing. where does the media draw the line of whether or not to treat somebody seriously and or just not to give them the free exposure? fox did it with the top ten format but going forward, how would you approach that? >> well i think it is true that a lot of people are running with no intention or belief that they're going to win for many reasons including those that you talked about. i mean part of it you can't not cover. if you have somebody that's announced to run in the party, you've got to see who they are and cover them to some extent. i think this idea though of

the debate is really too old school for what we have today. for one thing, it isn't a debate. you can't put ten people up there for two hours with applause and expect to get any debate. we could actually news operation could say, okay each one of you 17 we sit down and ask you questions about things for two hours and we are going to follow up and make you answer and we're going to put them online and whoever wants to pick and choose from those, remember sarah palin when we really got to see what she thought about things was when katie couric did the long form interviews with her. that's when you learn about a candidate's, what they really think about these things. >> less likely to do the interviews now after what happened with katie couric and sarah palin. professor of syracuse enjoy barbecue for us. thanks for being on the show. an issue sure to make it into the 2016 conversation and didn't hear much about it last night maybe because the

president's numbers are pretty good. slicing and dicing the new jobs numbers next. she'll log in with her smile. he'll have his very own personal assistant. and this guy won't just surf the web. he'll touch it. scribble on it. and share it. because these kids will grow up with windows 10. get started today. windows 10. a more human way to do. ugh! heartburn! no one burns on my watch! try alka-seltzer heartburn reliefchews. they work fast and don't taste chalky. mmm...amazing. i have heartburn. alka-seltzer heartburn reliefchews. enjoy the relief.

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if it's first friday of the month, it's 3:00 p.m. hour it's jobs report friday! fired up and ready to go. while we didn't hear too much about the economy last night, you can bet this will be coming increasingly important as we get deeper into election season so let's get right to the numbers. pretty good.

215,000 jobs created in july 65 months of consecutive growth. the longest on record. the unemployment rate remains at 5.3%. wages continued their slow but steady climb of 5 cents overall. wages have risen 2.1% above inflation. which is near zero. now the bad news and always some in these things. labor force participation rate the people in the workforce stuck at a 38-year low. to digest the numbers for us jobs team of bernstein and moreci. thank you for being on the show. we appreciate it. >> thank you, luke. >> nice to be with you. >> jared, it seems that these numbers are strong enough that the feds are going to move to up interest rates in the fall. you think that's a good idea? >> i don't. and i'm not even sure they will. you know you definitely gave us a nice survey of what the data show but, in fact that wage number you cited along with the

inflation number really should be signaling to the fed that there's no obvious reason to tap the brakes on this economy or or this job market. now, i don't think it is going to be a big deal if they raise the interest rate a quarter of a percent, which is something like what they have been talking about. but few eoif you look at the rate of inflation, which by the way they have been missing to the downside even as the job market as tightened. there's been no wage pressure. month? and out we've seen wages basically stuck at neutral, 2% year over year. the reason consumers are getting ahead is because inflation has been so freakishly low. if there is no inflationary pressure, the job market is improving but not improving so much it is creating the pressure, why raise? it is a bit of a head scratcher i think. >> it is indeed. peter we saw there is a lot of cheerful news there. but there are some things that i think are alarming. wage growth was not as large as

folks would like to see. you also have labor force participation, which has been stubbornly a tough met brick for the administration to break through. metric. 38 year low. are we a little too cheerful from the top news in the report. >> we have to be a little weary of the scars left by the financial crisis. a lot of people pushed out of jobs were in manufacturing and they were older. they are not old enough to retire. they are counted as not participating because they are less than 55 and that is very disturbing. but i don't know for example keeping interest rates low another year or economic growth -- i think that economic growth is more rapid than we give it credit. the second quarter number will be adjusted upward to about 3% in my estimation. and i think we can look to growth going forward more rapidly. the reality is we've not had a

lot of productivity growth lately and likely to burst out and keep us from hiring. this month like all the prior month this is year we've been averaging about 210,000 jobs a month. much less than last year at 260 but that is what we're going to have. this is not stellar. it is just steady as you go. what i see as the good news i think we're finally, finally, finally going to have a breakout year when it comes to gdp growth. and americans are finally going to start to get wealthier. i'm confident that wage growth will now improve. >> well that is a big prediction. and jared, another aspect of this report is the jobless rate is 5.3% in july. the fed officials forecasted it would be there at the year end. down from 2.6% a year ago. with that information as well as what you just heard from peter, what do you think the economy's impact will be on this election? >> well first of all that low

unemployment rate 5.3, is the lowest since 2008. but i would argue that that's actually better than it sounds. if you factor in this problem with the labor force that you mentioned or the fact that there is still 6 million people out there who are involuntary part-timers. they would rather have full-time jobs and can't find them. there is more slack than that 5.3% shows. the economy has beenneen improving. the 65 month record. i this that is one of the reasons the candidates kind of avoided the economy last night. i think it might be because they don't want to get into a conversation of good things that happened over president obama's watch. one thing about peter's prediction quickly, every economist keeps telling us that around the corner is the growth burst out. and they keep having to mark down their forecast. i hope peter is right. he might be.

i don't know he's wrong. but that lucy and the football dynamic has been a real problem over the course of this recovery recovery. >> peter do you want to respond? >> i would point out as i haven't talked about the burst out before. this is my first prediction of one of those. in cleveland, the economy didn't show up because the moderators didn't ask about the economy. they had a choice. they could have focused on the four issues that hillary clinton is focusing on. things like jobs equality and so forth. and put those themes out there and gotten their responses, or they could turn it into a donald trump affair. and they decided right at the beginning with that hands up poll that this was going to be a donald trump circus. >> jared bernstein, peter, thank you so much. also the world markets are going to have this air say in the election am some point too. and last night jon stewart ended his run as host of the show.

here is a look at highlights. >> hey guess what? i got big news. this is it. this is the final episode. >> i'll never forget you jon. but i will be trying. >> and just when i'm running for president. what a bummer. >> have fun feeding your rabbit quitter. >> so long [ bleep ]. [ cheers and applause ] >> working here meant the world to me. >> and i got to say this is -- for me it is very touching that you would come back after 12 years and do the -- >> well i never left jon. becoming an international superstar is just something i did while waiting -- >> actually jon we're not quite done. >> don't do this. >> no. you can't stop anyone because they don't work for you anymore. it will be quick if you just hold still. you said to me and others here many years ago never to thank you because woe owe you nothin few

times you are dead wrong. and we're better people for having known you. >> the best thing is vigilance. so if you smell something say something. rather than saying goodbye or good night, i'm just going to say i'm going to go get the drink. >> and it all ended with a special tribute from the boss himself, the greatest musician in american history, bruce springsteen a perfect ending for the boy from jersey. [ applause ] and that is it for us at 3:00. craig melvin is up next with more on the debate iran and other political stories of the day. keep it here on msnbc. have a good weekend. because they're heart healthy because they're good for kids. and granddads and everyone else in the family. everything we do is because of what really matters most.

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trumped. the republican front runner wakes up after the debate comes out swinging again. refusing to rule out a third party run. >> and i don't frankly have time for total political correctness. >> after fight night in cleveland, hear what chris christie is saying today about donald trump's comments on women. also setback and a major blow to president obama. new york democrat chuck schumer says he will not support the nuclear deal with iran. we're live at the white house with reaction to that. and msnbc exclusive, loretta lynch talking with melissa harris perry, as ferguson gets set to