not all right, and not be comfortable walking in theaters, feeling they will not be checked, if that will start and save any lives, let's move forward. thanks for watching. i'm al sharpton. "hardball" starts right now. good time donny! let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. it isn't supposed to be this way. donald trump is supposed to be appealing to the angry people in this country but take a look at the people's faces in the crowds. they're having the time of their lives, hanging on every word. trump is out there talking with energy and enthusiasm and optimism. he is going to make everyone rich, he says. happy days are here again. >> being president is so hard,

why do i want to be president? because i love this country. and i know that i can make it great again. we're going to be thriving as a country. thriving. i will be the greatest jobs president that god ever created. i tell you that. i'm really rich. >> if you have a billion, you can live very nicely. that's the mindset that we need as a country. what i want to do is make the country great. that's all i want to do. i have some of the greatest assets in the world. best locations in manhattan. whatever kind of a brain that is will be used to making our country rich again, trade deals, great trade deals. making our country rich and then making it great. i know it sounds a little rough. we have to make our country rich again. we have to make our country great again. ♪ happy days are here again

>> amidst that jaunty tune, howard dean, and matt, i've got all three of you here with different views. happy days are here again was the theme song of the roosevelt campaign in '32. i'm all about harry. this one is pretty good. this guy has people laughing. he is supposed to be the politics of the grim and the angry. angry at everybody. if you look at the faces, they're a lot like the faces at a bernie sanders operation. they're all having the time of their lives and the other candidates are dying. >> i love that trump's insult to jeb yesterday was that he was a low energy person. isn't that great? >> he did call chuck todd sleepy time? >> sleepy eyes. >> he is having a ball. and it is fun to be with someone who is having fun. people are showing up because they don't know what he will say next but also because he is entertaining.

we can't help ourselves. >> politics, as you can from the beginning of the picnics. lincoln, you have to keep the audience involved. it is, of course, a first step. the question is what do you do that you have the crowd? >> he's making them happy. >> this is a hard crowd to make happy, too. this is the wing of the republican party that is really angry at everybody. trump comes along and says i'm right with you. so listen. trump confounlds me totally. i thought he would be gone by now. >> you're an honest man. that's an honest statement. >> everything that he says that i think he is going to leave him will get him out makes him stronger. attack john mccain, a war hero. then attack women. and i'm going, okay, i was wrong. but this is the end. >> bleeding everywhere. >> and now he looks like the real deal. the thing that is so amazing, i thought when he got into this race, it was going to be a great

thing for jeb bush. i think jeb bush is in deep trouble right now. he is not second or third. he's fourth. and he is not getting any traction. it is because he won't stand up to trump. he is afraid to do it. >> that's not true. >> i think it is. >> can you answer this question as a straight journalist covering this? does he have the possibility of being the nominee? >> at this point we have to say yes. he has the possibility. unlikely but a possible. >> so he is a contender. we all agree as he contender. not a side show. >> and with 17 candidates, with super pacs and the way campaign finance works, i don't know if we'll see a the loe of these candidates getting out. if you have 10 or 15%. >> they'll be zombies. >> i don't think so. >> if the pac money is spending your money, you don't have anything left. >> rick perry has no paid staff but he is still in the race.

>> trump is standing room only them put out a statement. tomorrow in alabama, we'll cover that live. the trump rally has been moved to a 40,000 seat football stadium. last night he touted as jeb bush was holding a quiet town hall a few quite miles away. >> i love the rowdy crowds. isn't it great? there's spirit. there's spirit. >> you know what? you know what's happening to jeb's crowd right down the street? they're sleeping. they're sleeping now. my group. these are my people. these are my people. >> not to spoil the fun, today in new hampshire jeb bush was asked by a report betrump's charge that bush's audience was

sleeping. >> you went to the event, you would have found there was a lot of enthusiasm. and there's a big difference between donald trump and me. i'm a proven conservative with a record. he isn't. i cut taxes every year. he proposed the largest tax hike increase in history. i've been consistently pro-life. he until recently was for partial-birth abortion. i never met a person who actually thought that was a good idea. he's been a democrat longer than being a republican. when people get this narrative, the compare and contrast narrative, they're going to find that i'm going to be the guy they're going to vote for. it is a long haul, man. >> he doesn't seem like a presidential candidate. in that he referenced the tax plan from 1999 when trump was thinking of running the third party. he came on this show to impose a heavy tax. the economy would boom. no debt.

i know about debt as much as anybody. i've had too much and too little. talking about a big tax for the very litsch and now he's denying it. does it matter? >> not anymore. not anymore. >> and i actually think that's the miracle of donald trump. he just says what he thinks and people love it. i think this is way too cynical. >> how can he be a guy who was a big tax, especially on the rich? >> you're asking me to explain how he has changed his mind over the years. no question that he has gravitated from one party to the other party and been different places on different issues. what happened to donald trump? barack obama happened to donald trump. he saw what has happened over the last seven years and he has completely thinks it has america on the wrong path. that's what got him in the republican camp. as a republican, i think great. he is reaching voters we couldn't get to. >> would you vote for him as nominee? >> yes. >> you would vote for him for

president. >> absolutely. >> in florida, leading jeb bush. they're willing to answer the question. why is jeb bush losing in his own state? >> trump is connecting in every state in the land. what he is saying is working in florida. that gets to the hispanic question as well. everyone assumes the hispanic population of the republican voirt won't vote for trump. i think that's not true. i think they're taking a hard look at him. especially those who came through process legally. >> i get the sense, they're battening down the hatches. they know this will be a while with this hurricane. they're thinking this will be over at the end of the summer. then we can come out of hiding. noble wants to take a shot at him. >> interesting to see jeb try to do that. they considered trump a carnival

barker and nobody took him seriously by attacking him. we're starting to see that change. jeb spent two days. >> you know what ganldy said. first i ignore you, then they laugh ought, they then they attack you. >> then good you win. >> if you admit it, which nobody ever does, you won't make a decision but you admit you're honest in saying you made a miss team of. >> i think he is in the cat bird seat for the time being. the big question, does he have an organization? if he doesn't have an organization, this is all going to go away. >> he doesn't really need it. >> tell us about that. is it paid or volunteer? >> both. he has real operatives who have good operations who are active in the early states. >> so he's making the effort to win in iowa. here's trump's sthik.

he is pretty graphic about building the materials he will use and the specifications. >> now, they have these walls built. they say people go over these walls a ladder. do you know how tall the wall is? like this. it is not a wall. it is a little fence. people put up a ladder that they buy at home depot. i'm talking about a wall. see that ceiling up there? higher. and you do a beautiful, nice pre cast plank with beautiful everything. just perfect. i want it to be so beautiful. maybe someday they'll call at this time trump wall. maybe. i have to make sure it's beautiful, right? you put that plank up and you dig your footings. there is no ladder going over that. if they ever get up there, they're in trouble. there's no way to get down. >> you know, i was just thinking, it's like you see the movie star like jack lemmon playing the piano. the guy is talking and acting. wait a minute. he can play the piano too.

he is talking building materials, specificses, he is a land developer. >> he has built really tall buildings. >> he has capabilities. >> not usually ones that coordinate with being president but who knows? >> that tend to be generalists. a lot of time to think. >> donald trump would be a great nominee. we have 17 people to choose from. >> we have so many great choices. >> i gave you a choice between two. howard dean, i love that you admit you were surprised about this. there is something new under the sun. everything is not the way it was. and this guild, they try to denied trump's exist tense because he isn't something i grew up with. >> coming up, senator claire mccaskill is coming up. plus, i'll get her thoughts on what's going on. why is she so gung-ho about

hillary clinton? and whether vice president joe biden would be smart to jump in the race for 2016? also, reality politics. donald trump graces the covers of "time" magazine and the hollywood reporter. i'll speak with the two reporters who have just gotten up close with the great entertainer and newly found politician. plus, we'll review the rest of the field. who is hot and who is not? in our own words, his own words, the gutsy, honest, jimmy carter. my own boss reveals the extent of his health challenge.

at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like mute buttons equal danger. ...that sound good? not being on this phone call sounds good. it's not muted. was that you jason? it was geoffrey! it was jason. it could've been brenda. here's a little boost from the vice president of the united states. quinnipiac has new numbers that show joe biden is leading donald trump in three swing states. let's go to the "hardball"

scoreboard. in florida, joe biden beats donald trump by 3. in pennsylvania, biden by 8. he is up to 48%. trump at 40. in ohio, biden by 10. biden, 48, trump just 38. we'll be right back. smash it ! jublia is a prescription medicine proven to treat toenail fungus. use jublia as instructed by your doctor. look at the footwork! most common side effects include ingrown toenail, application site redness, itching, swelling, burning or stinging, blisters, and pain. smash it! make the call and ask your doctor if jublia is right for you. new larger size now available.

what do you think they'll be doing?

missourians have rejected the politics of personal character attacks. the nation was watching and we showed them. >> they all said, it's over. it's done. it's too red. it's just too red. there is no way that claire mccaskill can survive. you know what happened? you proved them wrong. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was democrat claire mccaskill on election night in 2006 when she became the first woman ever elected tot in missouri.

she was reelected in a state barack obama lost that year by 10 points. that year republicans made her their chief target nationwide. now she holds harryo truman's senate seat is out with her memoir. missouri democrat claire mccaskill joins me now. congratulations on the book and welcome. you took a big risk in 2008 endorsing barack obama over hillary clinton. you wrote in your new book, the national women's groups that considered my election a product of their handly work were furious at the possible of my backing obama. after you endorsed him you wrote, people across the country, especially women, were very upset. some wanted their campaign contributions returned. one group told me never to contact them again. you said you told jeff goldburg that hillary would be fatal for other democrats saying the democratic party has to look at candidates who can be

competitive in all 50 states. and finally you wrote about something you said about the clintons on "meet the press" during your senate race. >> you were having bill clinton come in and raise money for you. do you think he was a great president? >> do i. i had a lot of problems with some of his personal issues. i said at the time, i think he has been a great leader but i don't want my daughter near him. >> this time you're an early hillary supporter. the everybody doriser. tell us about hillary and your move to be a gung-ho hillary backer after opposing her last time. >> last time it was a hard choice. we had two amazing candidates. this time it is not so hard. we have one candidate that has the strength and the stability to lead this country. she has come out with amazing substantive proposals that will help missourians, that will help the middle class in this country. she is the right leader at a time when our world is very dangerous and complicated. so i think she is head and

shoulders above the field. and i'm excited to work on her behalf. >> what is the trick to winning a state that could easily go the other way in a senate race? i think the people who run in tough states for a democrat or a republican, you have to appeal across the line to get a majority, learn a lot more about politics than those who just grow up and spend their lives in safe seats. your thoughts? >> well, it is easier for me because i'm truly a moderate. i love to forge compromise. it is not unusual for the far left and the far right to both be mad at me at the same time. frankly, we need more people that are comfortable with that. that's how you get people to come in from the edges and really work things out. that's why so many people are so mad at the government. it is dysfunctional. and they're graf stating toward outsiders. they have, i believe, a misplaced belief that somehow these outsiders can change our constitution and the checks and balances of our government.

it really takes moderates to get this done. that's what i think you have to be in a state like missouri. >> what would happen if bernie sanders were to pull an upset, lightning upset and defeat hillary clinton? would he win in missouri? >> you know, it depends who the republican nominee is. obviously, there is a cast of thousands over there. and we can't tell at this point. eventually the circus will leave town and they'll narrow it down. two or three candidates. >> suppose it is donald trump against bernie sanders in the middle of the country of missouri. is that too hard to imagine? >> i'm going on a long vacation if that's the case. that's hard. i don't know who wins that. i think bernie sanders wins that because i think he has substantive issues he cares about. >> let's talk about someone everybody likes who is being talked about. you're right in the middle of it even if you're on a book tour. joe biden. personally, i home he doesn't run. i don't think he can beat hillary clinton and i'm not sure

it is a great fight to have right now. but it seems like a possibility. what do you think? is it something he should do? >> i feel exactly the way you do. i love joe. i feel protective of him. i worry that i don't know what he pulls away from hillary clinton. i don't know how he is really competitive in the long run. once you get in, then all the guns, everybody starts to hit with you all the negative. i don't think people realize the amount of incoming that hillary clinton is taking. everyone is shooting, not literally, obviously, figuratively, everyone is aiming ought negative at her. if joe gets in, some of that will begin to be directed at him. and i, you know i love bernie. hillary clinton has to earn this nomination. and she knows that. she can't just walk in. >> i do, i'm not supposed to but do i sympathize with the

situation she is in intellectually. as one of our smart producers said yesterday. it's not that they're looking for a smoking gun. as long as they have this smoke cloud around her. every time they get her in a press conference them just yell bae benghazi, benghazi, benghazi. and e-mail, e-mail, e-mail. they don't even know what the gun is. what are they for? how do you deal with that in terms of press relations? like she had this trouble the other day. >> well, i think first of all, she has to fight through it. she has to fight back. she has to be strong and assertive. and at the end of the day. what they're really asking americans to believe is that hillary clinton as secretary of state somehow wanted to harm americans serving abroad as part of her organization? or that she wanted the chinese to be able to hack into our systems? i mean, i think at the end of

the day, a lot of this becomes noise. and look at her numbers, still. people talk about her unfavorables. they're much lower than donald trump's. everybody is talking about donald trump. he's great, doing so great. his unfavorables are much higher than hillary clinton's. >> i know. >> he's got 20% of the vote in that means 80% of the vote against him. perspective and context matters. >> the night that chris davis was filled in benghazi, she had her feet up on the desk. she was having a snaps or something. i don't know what they're trying to say. that she didn't answer the phone? it is an absurdity. let me ask you about donald trump. i've been in politics forever, since i was 5 years old. and everybody came, the master of the clots.

oh, he's not going anywhere. it will all be gone by september and he is beating bush, rubio, beating all the big shots of the republican party. is he real or not? >> well, every time someone who is of the washington culture says he's not real, it makes him stronger. because what people are reactioning to is in fact washington culture. and i respect that. i may not respect how donald trump is running for president without sub stance, with rhetoric and are not i wonderful, anything i can do to get attention. but i respect that people who are gravitating toward him. they want washington to work differently. they are frustrated, cynical, angry and very angry about their government. >> you're my kind of politician. here's cheryl sandburg selling your book. a brilliant memoir that nearly

explodes with encouragement for women. what a great role model. senator claire mccaskill, elected twice for missouri. plenty ladylike. up next, reality tv meets reality politics. donald trump goes toe to toe with a bald eagle in a cover shoot for "time" magazine. he is on the cover. whatever you think of that picture, it is reality and this is "hardball," the place for politics. me cargo, same size, same power. which one arrives first? hint: it's not the one on the left. the speedy guy on the right is part of an intelligent system that creates the optimal trip profile for all trains on the line. and the one on the left? uh, looks like it'll be counting cows for awhile. so maybe the same things aren't quite the same. ge software. get connected. get insights. get optimized.

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eagle and the gop front-runner was unflappable. he took a shot at bill clinton. >> clinton had a lot of problems with the monicas of the world. and had he not had those problems, he he would have had a great presidency. not a great one. trump also takes kentucky senator rand paul to task for running for re-election to the senate while also running for president. >> maybe sometimes much harder than they hit me but i came one a very strong statement about rand paul. first of all, i think he's totally taken advantage of the people of kentucky. if they don't win here, i'll go back to you. it doesn't work that way. some somebody some primary him out. he can be beaten. >> the hollywood reporter has him on the cover. there is the other picture. they're comparing him to ronald reagan. hold your breath on that one. joining me, the two reporters,

i'll start with you, janice. you're smiling. were you smiling there? did you enjoy the rather strong personality? >> he is a total, a complete entertainer and he's smart. i think one of the thing that his rivals should not underestimate is how smart he is. a lot has been made about the fact that he is a fool, he says silly things. but it really struck me when he talked about, he said to me. would you be paying any attention to me, would you be sitting in my office if i were boring? and i had to answer and say no. that is really what's going on right now. both in television, online, social media, he is owning the entire conversation. so yes, i was entertained. >> if you think with skiing, those who look like they're controlling and it these are madly falling down the hill search controlling his words? is it your sense that he thought

about what, is there a brain working it or just good luck and the right since amountses? >> i think he knows exactly what he's doing. there were times, you know this better than anyone. you ask a qui and they don't answer. that happened repeatedly. a lot of the points are, i'm right. you're wrong. he is an effective communicator. in all the time i've interviewed people. there's some publicist who tries to get the quotes killed. not a single thing happened. i was with trump about four hours and not one thing was ever interrupted by a publicist. no one tried to strike anything. he knew exactly what he was doing the entire time. >> years ago i had somebody call me ask ask me the questions i would ask hillary clinton at the time. senator clinton. why these people think they'll

make it any better ten minutes before a debate. any way, the hollywood reporter interview recalling his most influential interview. here he is, trying to be in his way, nice. >> that was a nice question. i blurted out something like only rosie o'donnell. so rosie, finally, you saved me. >> let's get to "time" magazine. i want to go to michael for a minute. i'll be back to you. "time" magazine is historic. you had hitler on the cover one time because he was a danger in the world and the most important person in the world because he was the greatest danger. the decision. how hard was to it put him on the cover? >> i don't think it was hard at this point. we've been watching trump, we've been writing about trump for several weeks now. he has defied everyone's expectations. >> is he real? >> depends on what you mean by real. >> is he a contender for the

presidency? has he got a plausible route? >> very narrow route. a very, very narrow route. et cetera running now 25% in the republican party, which is about 40% of country. >> i'm talking about the nomination comfortable he be one of the last two guys fighting it out. >> right now he would have to change a lot of minds. people saying the ticket would be weak we are him on it than off it. i think there's a lot of evidence that t evidence. how his mind works and how it appears to be not making money. not just himself. he offered to make the next gop into a money maker for chafrlt he suggested, so if i go to cnn and i say, look. you're going to have a massive audience. if i say to them, i want $10 million for charity.

nothing for myself, what happens? i'm not showing up. can he leverage that? >> would it never work. >> cnn wouldn't run it? >> i can't imagine a scenario in which a respectful journalistic organization would pay $10 million for a candidate running for president. >> you know, i suggested for sheer political athlete per we would all watch, hillary clinton agrees to debate donald trump right away. a week or two from now. for the biggest tv person in history all going to some really good clarity in the world. wouldn't that be a night? >> this is pay-per-view. pacquiao and mayweather. i was watching donald trump a few minutes ago. he said the article was not entirely flattering. he said i love chris matthews, i love "hardball," i think he call you a wild and crazy guy.

>> touche! thank you for delivering that message. you ought to have a cupid's arrow. up next, jimmy carter talks. it was a great moment in american communication. especially from a guy who has challenges now. shopping online... ...is as easy as it gets. wouldn't it be great if hiring plumbers, carpenters and even piano tuners... were just as simple? thanks to angie's list, now it is. start shopping online... ...from a list of top rated providers. visit angieslist.com today.

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press, the hacking at ashley madison exposed the accounts of hundreds of government workers, some with sensitive jobs in the white house, congress and law enforcement. now back to "hardball." within the bounds of my own judgment, i'll do what the doctors recommend for me to extend my life as much as possible. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was form he president jimmy carter who spoke at length about his reason cancer diagnosis. earlier there month he underwent a surgery which revealed medical nome. a it has spread to his brain and he said this it is likely to show up in other parts of his body. that's what's coming. in his characteristic way, the 39th president who famously promised the country he would never lie to it, he delivered the very personal news with courage and candor. here's how he described his initial reaction to the

diagnosis. >> i just thought i had a few weeks left. but i was surprisingly at ease. i've had a wonderful life. i've had thousands of friends. and i've had an exciting and adventurous and gratifying existence. so i was surprisingly at ease. much more so than my wife was. but now i feel, you know, it's in the hands of god whom i worship and i'll be prepared for anything that comes. >> that's a powerful christian statement there. i'm joined by the round table, chief political correspondent, the washington editor for the national review, and chris with the "washington post." i'm going to start with you, chris. i worked for him for all those years. i was a speech writer to the end and i was still taken by the three things about him i've always known. he is particular. lots of information. he is very honest.

and he is really gutsy whenever you think of his politics. >> i tend to see these things as hypochondriac through my own lenls. if it was me, how i would treat it? i'm amazed by the ability to be magnanimous, honest, have candor and be able to say, which is an awesome thing to say if you're 90 years old or 39 years old, to say, look. i've lived a really great life. i lived a life that i probably, he didn't say this but i'm sure, a life that i never thought i would be able to live. the whole thing was peanut farmer from georgia elected president. the guy started an amazing philanthropic humanitarian center at the carter center. that ability to contextualize news that is devastating for almost any of us into a brard context is really, i thought -- >> you hit the nail. there if you make to it 90, you got no complaints. best the same age as bobby

kennedy. we lost him back in '68. one of those things i like to put in perspective. check the date of birth and see how some people live long lives. and others don't get break. >> what i think was so remarkable about what did he today. there is a tradition of protecting the integrity of the presidency by shielding the privacy of former presidents, current presidents in these difficult moments. fdr wouldn't be photographed in a wheelchair. and i think carter showed that you can expose weakness, former presidents, current presidents can expose weaknesses, talk about the most difficult moments of their lives and still frequent dignity of the office. >> would jack kennedy have been admitted if he had addison's disease? would he have been elected? >> i don't know. >> i don't know how you talk with your brain, you're saying the brain has cancer. it is so personal. it is almost frightening.

>> this guy is someone who explained to america in very easy to use terms for his entire life what was going on in front of them. he did it in 1976 which got them elected. then later, he spoke on disease, poverty on, all of his humanitarian efforts. and even when i disagreed with him a lot on israel and apartheid, even when you disagreed with him, there is a tremendous value that he brought to raising issues. and even today, raising the issue of cancer. >> he was direct on benjamin netanyahu today, wasn't he? let's listen to him talk about his regrets in life. >> anything you wish? that you had not done or that you had done differently? >> i wish i had sent one more helicopter to get the hostages. we would have rescued them and i wofbl reelected. but that may have interfered in the foundation of the carter center. if i had to clues between four more years and the carter center, i think i would choose

the carter center. could have been both. >> you never get over it. i don't think you ever get over losing the big one. especially when you're president of the united states. still in his head all the time. >> talk about honesty. a low point of his presidency. eight americans dead. to go back to what he did, somebody who always cared deeply about america's role in the world and the moment with the iranian hostages. i don't think carter has gotten enough credit for all did he over that year to secure the release of the hostages. >> he got them home safe. >> and something reagan has gotten credit for that i think jimmy carter deserves a whole lot of credit for. >> the round table, thank you for this honesty. it was a great tennis match and you were very generous. up next, who is hot and who is not? we'll look at the numbers. they're not named trump. but there are some guys riding high like slim pickins riding that nuclear bomb. some guys are using this guy

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the only thing constant is trump. all of them change, on the bottom, they're going up and down like yo-yos. i've been up there a long time

and i hope i'll be there a long time. i read a lot of phony reports. a couple of them in the paper saying, oh, well, when donald trump and leading all the polls -- i'm not going anywhere, folks. >> we're back with the roundtable, jonathan, eliana, and chris. as donald trump towers over the field, the remaining 16 republican candidates are struggling to be heard or even seen. some are having more success than others. while no one's close to eclipsing trump, there's new evidence that the momentum of the race has shifted. this week's national cnn opinion research polls show a search and support for dr. ben carson, who's gained five percentage points since last month. carly fiorina, who's gained four points. both candidates are washington outsiders who have never held elected office. rubio and kasich have also ticked up, but just a bit. in contrast, one-time favorites like jeb bush and scott walker are on the down swing, losing two points each, as well as

chris christie, who's fallen from the ranks of the top ten candidates. the appeal of political outsiders may be the new normal for 2016. on monday, for example, scott walker was asked about the state of the race. and he said the polls merely reflect voter protest and not actual support. >> i think the reason why you see not just one candidate, but a couple candidates moving in the polls who are not elected to any position is really a matter of a protest. i talk to americans all across this country, who say i may not end up voting for this candidate, but i'm going to say in the polls this i'm for them, because i'm tireded ed of polis in washington not listening to me. >> if this guy, scott walker, who looked really good in terms of profile, governor of a midwest state, gets re-elected, had the labor unions after him, beat them back in a recall. if his inside looked as good as his outside, he'd be in great shape. but trump looks good when we're getting up close to him. this guy doesn't look so good up

clo close. >> i don't know if scott walker is wrong, but it's easy for him to make the argument, these are protest votes, don't worry about them. the polls will go up and go down. the one thing that's changed, chris, when you say, who's hot and who's not, the one thing that's changed is the debates. carson was perceived as doing well, rubio, kasich, carly was sort of the winner of the undercard. so that's what's changed. i don't know that it means that it's a protest vote. it could mean that people want something different. yeah, maybe they want something different in august 2015 and in february of 2016, they're going to go back to the establishment, but maybe they won't. >> those who are siding with trump sort of's trust, saying i'm with him, and others say, i'm against him on the thrust. >> i don't think it's crazy to say that the polls aren't completely accurate here. we've seen rick santorum come way from behind out of nowhere last time. mike huckabee come back in 2008 to win iowa. and so, as to what chris was

saying, i don't think the polls we're seeing in the early primary states are necessarily predictive of the voters who are actually going to show up. i think scott walker's right on that point. >> young he think he's still in running? >> absolutely. >> i think what we're seeing -- >> so the more boring candidates can still do well. >> absolutely. >> put that on a bumper -- >> scott walker is like -- >> wake up and vote for scott walker. anyway -- >> i was just going to say that the important paradigm used to be moderate conservative. right now the important paradigm is insider/outsider. ben carson, ted cruz, add them up with donald trump and you've got a big number there. >> rick perry's campaign is effectively broke, but the former texas governor isn't backing off just yet. a piece in "the washington post" declared yesterday, quote, the zombie apocalypse has arrived and it's in iowa with rick perry. he can in longer afford to pay his staff, and yet due to a recently known experiment known as super pacs, his campaign

lurches forward. perry that has no control over how his money is spent. super pacs keep spending money and spending money, but you can't even call them up and say, put this ad on the air, right? >> sure. we heard in 2012, they propped up rick santorum, newt gingrich for longer than people thought they'd stay around. now we say, do you even need a campaign? >> will this prevent any candidate from getting 50% going into cleveland? >> oh, yeah. >> so we'll have -- >> i shouldn't say -- i don't know for sure. i do think that's a possibility. and i would not have said that -- >> chris, do you think -- can it force us to actually have a gavel-to-gavel convention -- >> i think it's more like never before, because super pacs exist, and because of the ghost of tim pawlenty. tim pawlenty was out of the race by this time four years ago. he should have just stayed in, sort of lived off the land, and maybe might have come back. i think every candidate sees him and thinks, i'm not dropping

out, because who knows. donald trump is the front-runner right now. why do i need to get in or out. >> i think you may have a convention. >> the public wants one. jonathan alan, eliana johnson, and chris cillizza. when we return, let me finish with the undeniable fact of donald trump. you're watching "hardball," the place for politics. before earning enough cash back from bank of america to buy a new gym bag. before earning 1% cash back everywhere, every time and 2% back at the grocery store. even before he got 3% back on gas.

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let me finish tonight with the undeniable fact of donald trump. so far, he's getting about a

quarter of the republican vote. put him up against the rest of the gop candidates, and that's about what he gets, over and over again, about 25%. of the republican vote. assume that's about half the total vote of the country. that means the man from manhattan is getting regular backing from about one-eighth of the american electorate. but even when you put it that way, the incontestable fact is that trump is gaining the regular support of many republicans, more than any other candidate. not only that, but he's gaining dramatically in imagined matchups with democrat hillary clinton. and is there anyone who wouldn't like to see that imagined matchup become a prime-time reality. a two-hour test of wits, of nerve and political stamina between the woman whose turn it is politically and the country's most controversial party crasher. and that may be precise why mr. trump is still the man to beat. because somewhere in the minds and souls of those on right, especially, is the spoiling, simmering lust to see a trump/hillary bout that goes the distance. one that we haven't seen anything like between the tennis match between the mouthy bobby

rigs and the gusty billie jean king. okay, i would like to see it, hillary versus trump. that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. tonight on "all in" -- >> this is a very big question as to the anchor babies. >> anchor babies, as they're described. >> anchor babies. >> from bad to worse. >> i'll use the word "anchor baby." excuse me, i'll use the word "anchor baby." >> donald trump's ugly rhetoric spreads. >> -- use the term anchor babies yesterday on the radio. >> no, i didn't. i don't! do you have a better term? >> tonight, the backlash from inside the republican party. plus, trump mimics executing an american p.o.w.. >> we get a traitor named bergdahl, a dirty, rotten traitor. in the old days, bing, bong. >> tonight, bowe bergdahl's wy