traveler's cheques, a lost card. really? that worked? american express' timeless safety and security are now available on apple pay. the next evolution of membership is here. joebld's big decision. all right, good morning. thanks for getting up with us this sunday morning with all of the attention that's focused on donald trump's run for president, the race on the democratic side can sometimes get overlooked, but not this morning. vice president joe biden back in the headlines with the clearest sign yet that he is seriously considering a run for president. much more on that in just a minute. we're also learning more this morning about the gunman who

tried to open fire aboard a paris-bound train and was stopped by three very courageous americans. that is coming up. and there is pandemonium this morning at the national zoo. details on that ahead as well. we begin this morning with another surprise from joe biden. you can see the vice president's motorcade here making a surprise trip from his home in delaware back to washington, d.c. yesterday. he headed back to the capital in order to meet with elizabeth warren, the massachusetts democrat and liberal hero. the lunch gathering at the naval observatory the biggest sign yet that biden is flirting with a presidential run. testing waters with a key party leader. "the new york times" reporting that biden made clear to warren that he is seriously considering a bid, but did not directly ask her for her support. the vice president is also reaching out to potential donors, telling associates he will make a decision by next

month. biden huddled with advisers thursday at his home in delaware. meanwhile, bernie sanders rallied 2,000 supporters down in charleston, south carolina, last night. >> when we bring the middle class and working class together, when we bring white and black and hispanic, native american, men and women, straight and gay, native and immigrant, when we bring our people together, there is nothing that can stop us from transforming this country. >> hillary clinton still holds a large lead in the polls on the democratic side. sanders is now ahead of biden in the surveys that include the vice president. worth pointing that out as well. kristen welker is in martha's vineyard where president obama is watching all of this from his

vacation. maybe that's how the president likes it. let them sort this out and settle this while he takes a step back. >> i think he's glad to be sitting on the sidelines. i think you're absolutely right. if vice president biden does enter the race, that could complicate things for the president. here's what we know. the vice president has been mulling a run with his allies, supporters and family members for weeks, but as you say, the fact that he met with senator elizabeth warren is the clearest sign yet that he's seriously considering a run. she would, of course, be key to winning over the progressive branch of the party. of course, progressives have not been flocking to secretary clinton. just to put this into a broader context, secretary clinton clearly still the strong democratic frontrunner. however, according to a cnn poll just out this week, 53% of democrats say they want biden to run. so the arguments for a biden run -- look, this is someone who has always wanted to be president. he has run twice before. he's someone who thinks he has a strong argument to make, and of course, there are some democrats

who are getting jittery about secretary clinton's chances in a general election because of this e-mail issue. they worry that would make her vulnerable. the reasons against a vice president run and the challenges, quite frankly, some democrats say he could be seen as dividing the democratic party, and then there's just a very personal reason, which is that he's still very much, i am told, mourning the loss of his son beau. this is something that he is grappling with. one democrat telling me he just doesn't know if the vice president has it in him right now given all of that. and then there's this issue of timing. the vice president has always said he's going to make his decision at the end of the summer. well, now some democrats are saying it might be wise for him to sit back and wait to see how secretary clinton actually weathers this e-mail issue and whether it starts to actually gain ground. one democrat saying it would be politically wise for vice president biden to be seen as a savior instead of a spoiler. so those are all of the issues at play as he continues to mull this run. we were expecting a decision by

the end of the summer in and around labor day, but it's quite possible that timeline gets pushed back a little bit. steve? >> all right, appreciate it. for more on what this means for the democratic race, joining me now, nbc news political analyst and former pennsylvania governor ed rendell. our panel this morning, jackie kucinich, april ryan, and caden dawson. governor rendell, let me start with you. kristen welker just put the number out there. 53% of democrats say they want joe biden to run for president. are you part of that 53%? >> no. i think at this point, it would be divisive. i think the vice president is best to wait. if he gets in, he'll have immediate credibility. wait and see what happens. you mentioned it in the opening.

right now, hillary clinton is beating sanders and biden in florida. ohio 47-17-14. in pennsylvania 45-19-17. and vice president biden is running behind bernie sanders. hillary clinton has not lost traction with the vast majority of democratic voters. those polls were taken this week in classification charges. so i think the vice president -- if he's at all thinking about this, would be best to wait and come in as savior if, in fact, something happens. >> gunfire, when you take biden out of those polls, you go sanders-clinton head-to-head the last couple months, you've got polls now with him leading her in new hampshire. you've got polls with him within 15 points in iowa. you've got him running at about 30%. her running under 50 in a lot of cases. doesn't that indicate that there's a little bit more dissatisfaction with hillary clinton on the democratic side than maybe we thought there would be? >> no, i think it indicates that

bernie sanders has hit a very responsive chord with a very progressive -- the most progressive wing of our party. when you get into urban states that have a lot of hispanics and african-americans, steve, sanders doesn't come close to clinton. >> let me bring the panel in on this. let me start with more polling numbers here. this was in quinnipiac this week. they went into three key swing states. florida, ohio, pennsylvania. they tested clinton and biden against donald trump. we now have to seriously consider that trump could be the republican nominee. they got clinton trailing by two in florida. biden leading him by three. biden outpacing clinton. biden not a candidate. that could explain why he's doing better. but in terms of the biden scenario, does anybody here see the potential for joe biden in the next month to get in this race? >> what i'm hearing from my sources inside the white house, particularly around vice president biden and those in the draft biden campaign, that this is serious. he's really taking this seriously. and it looks like there's more

of a serious effort because of the kinds of people who have joined the draft biden camp. people who were campaign sponsors or campaign leaders for beau biden and also people who worked with president obama when he was running for president. so there is a big movement. so i asked people, is this about the memory of beau? they said no. this would be joe biden 3.0. this is not necessarily about that. and they also said -- i asked about the fact that what if he loses? this would be the third time. it's not necessarily if he loses about a loss, it's about the fact that he helps shape the narrative for the country at this time. so it's very interesting, he's taking it very seriously and i can't wait to see it. he'll put on those ray-bans again and we'll see sexy joe biden. >> what about the news now that we're talking about this morning is this meeting with elizabeth warren. there was this big push from liberals to get warren to run. she looked at the numbers, she said she didn't think it would

happen. now you've got bernie sanders running in a lot of ways on the warren message and getting traction. interested here that she's not committed in this race yet and biden reaching out to her? >> the fact that she's not committed doesn't really surprise me. the moment she commits, she loses all of her power and influence. so they have to kind of work for her endorsement, particularly with the progressive wing. we thought that bernie had taken the warren voter, but you wonder if biden gets in, if he's the sweet spot between hillary clinton and the establishment and bernie sanders and the progressive wing. i think he would pull mostly from hillary rather than bernie sanders, but you have to wonder if those activists are looking at joe biden and saying okay, wait a second, this might be a better call than bernie sanders, who is definitely tapping into that part of the progressive base. but his electability is still in question. >> as a republican, hillary clinton or joe biden, who would you rather your party have to run against next year? >> hillary clinton. this e-mail-gate is going to run a while. and that really affects the

votevote e ers. she isn't bill clinton, she's hillary clinton. that's a big difference on the stump. in south carolina, there are people that are pretty prominent in the democrat party that have been, you know, talking to joe biden, meeting on his vacation. he gets to talk about all the good things the democrat party have done, which i think aren't many as a republican, but he gets to talk to the base. and my point is, hillary right now is carrying a whole load of baggage that democrats don't really want. i mean, the conversation is not where it needs to be. and she's let this thing get out of hand. there's no reason why her numbers are so soft right now. and biden, to his credit, is not a candidate. once that changes, then bernie sanders is going to take a hit and hillary's going to take a hit. he gets to talk about what the administration has done to the base, and they agree with that. and i would contend, he inherits the grass roots base of biden and the president for two terms. and that's a base that when you

inherit that base, that's a pretty powerful move. >> governor rendell, let me pick up on the point that katon is making. he's talking about as a republican, he says he'd rather face hillary clinton. we put this poll up a minute ago from these three swing states, florida, ohio, pennsylvania, the same poll asked about do you think hillary clinton is honest and trustworthy in each one of those states. the answer came back no by a 2-1 margin. is there something to what katon is saying that she may not be as strong in the general election, maybe as her husband was back in the '90s. >> even with the pounding she's taken, head-to-head against republicans, clinton versus trump, versus bush, biden versus bush, biden versus trump, it's within the margin of error. so she's been pounded. joe has been riding a wave of good feeling. of course, because of what happened to beau, how wonderful he and his family were at the funeral. what a good, loyal vice president he's been. he's been riding that wave of

good feeling. you become a candidate, and it all changes. the press all of a sudden digs in and finds every miscue you've made, etc., etc. so i'm not sure that the republicans would rather run against hillary clinton. remember, we are still 18 months away from a general election. and this e-mail stuff is playing out now. will it be pertinent come october, september, october, november of next year? i doubt it. >> april? >> i find what katon says interesting, because the republicans have been talking about hillary clinton so much, and wanting her to fall off the trail. for all intents and purposes, her trust numbers are showing that people are having problems with trusting her. and now you're saying you want the republican party to have her as the candidate, as the nominee. i just find that very interesting. >> be careful what you wish for here in politics. it is early yet. if you'll go unpack this trump phenomenon, bernie sanders, unpack it all, and go back to

2011, and september 2011, there's a straw poll, rick perry is leading and herman cain comes in. there is a fickle electorate right now. and poll numbers, they're good trends, but watch the trends. when you see the trends in those battleground states, the trends of where voters are paying attention to -- i would contend that voters haven't really clued in except for the reality tv of donald trump. >> i still think what governor rendell said holds up, in terms of the democratic side, if those national polls were to start showing hillary clinton losing to the republicans, then i think the conversation might shift more to the democratic side. as long as he's still beating them, i do find it hard to see the opening for biden to say i'm going to save the party, because she is still winning. thanks to ed rendell for joining us this morning. and turning now to a developing story right now. new details about the gunman in france whose attack on train

passengers were thwarted. three americans risking their lives by tackling and disarming him on friday. belgium's chief prosecutor has now identified the suspect as 26-year-old moroccan ayoub el khazzani. police officials say he has ties to red call islam and is known to authorities in three european countries. he is currently in custody, all because of the american citizens who stopped that attack. two of them are u.s. servicemen, the third a college student. one of them, spencer stone, who served in the air force, sustained knife wounds to his neck and his hands. he was treated at a local hospital. he has now been released. president obama called the young men to thank them on behalf of the american people for their courage, and the french president plans to meet with them tomorrow. still ahead, jeb bush receives some support from very close to home. hillary clinton reportedly likes him, too. although that might not be a compliment. but first, is there a path to the republican nomination for donald trump? we'll try to answer that next.

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i do know what i'm doing, and i don't say that in a bragging way. you people are looking for somebody that knows what he's doing, whatever it is. i am going to be the greatest jobs president that god ever created. >> that was donald trump rallying the crowd this weekend in mobile, alabama. but in addition to public support, if there's any chance of trump turning this momentum into the republican nomination, he's going to need to start rounding up endorsements from the republican party establishment. which is why it was significant when at that alabama rally on friday night, senator jeff sessions showed up and joined trump onstage. >> we welcome you here.

thank you for the work you've put into the immigration issue. i'm really impressed with your plan. i know it will make a difference. and this crowd shows a lot of people agree with that. >> now, sessions did not officially endorse trump on friday night, but this is the closest that trump has come so far to landing a big name party leader. right now, polls show that nearly half of republican voters say they could see themselves supporting trump. that's a dramatic rise for the billionaire, up from 32% when he announced back in june, and just 23% if you go back to march. the new poll this week from cnn shows trump within striking distance of hillary clinton, trailing her by just six points, but the establishment is not taking this lying down. >> there's a big difference between donald trump and me. i'm a proven conservative with a record. he isn't. i cut taxes every year. he's proposed the largest tax increase in mankind history. >> our leading contender, mr.

trump, is going backward on immigration and i think he's going to take all of us with him if we don't watch it. >> i've met president nieto hundreds of times. this is international diplomacy and it's different. >> so what does trump have to do if he actually wants to win? can he actually win? let's turn to the panel. katon, you're with rick perry, so donald trump likes to go around -- one of his standard things these days is to make fun of rick perry and say look, rick perry came after me, he attacked me, he said i wasn't a real conservative and rick perry fell apart in the polls and didn't even make the debate. >> it certainly wasn't donald trump that did that, but i'll tell you, you heard senator graham and senator sessions. senator sessions only wore that hat for about 45 seconds. >> but he wore it. >> he meant to show up, he meant to wear it. and he's one of my favorite senators. but when you start looking at the trump phenomenon, and especially the border stuff, and that's where governor perry and trump fell apart. trump's made a lot of promises

about building a fence. the fence is from key west to the end of maine. the reason why that hasn't been solved is because the enormity of that problem. but trump's able to do things that other people aren't. he got in excess of $20 million worth of free advertising last week from our network here, cnn, fox, all of that. he's got a lot of things going on with him. so it's real early in this process. but trump doesn't have to deal with facts yet, steve, but he will. he doesn't have to deal with white papers, but he will. the republican base is a fairly sophisticated base, when it really starts, he's tapping into the emotions of our party. and i would contend that we're on some losing messages in the general, because the people who are going to remain the next president aren't paying much attention to bernie sanders or donald trump, even though trump is really good tv. >> what i see, though, beyond trump when i look at the polls on the republican side, i look at second place, and in a lot of

cases, ben carson. you have ben carson, carly fiorina, ted cruz who's running on sort of the anti-politician message, although he's obviously a politician. you add all that together, you start to get close to 50%. if you're saying you vote for ben carson, why wouldn't donald trump be your second choice? if you're saying you vote for ted cruz, why wouldn't -- so when i look at that, i i say maybe there is a path here for donald trump. >> but the other numbers you have to look at when you look at the polls, we mentioned the quinnipiac poll. there are more people who say they would not ever vote for donald trump than say they would vote for him. we're still talking about 25-ish, part of the republican electorate. one of the most interesting cross paths, when you talk about ben carson, donald trump, ted cruz, the evangelical vote right now is all about donald trump. it's one of the most fascinating parts of this early electoral process that i've seen personally. and i think that's why you've started hearing it during that alabama rally. talk about the bible, talk about god, talk about religion a lot.

he knows that. he's looking at that. he's a smart guy. say what you will about him. he knows what he's doing. >> nothing beats the bible. >> it's my favorite book. >> he walked out there onstage, the first thing he said is it reminds me of an old billy graham rally. >> oh, and he's been building this. let's be real. he's been building this with evangelicals for a while. he's given money to billy graham. billy graham's son was on facebook talking about donald trump. he's given money to his group. he's given money to a lot of different evangelical causes. so donald trump has been building quietly this base within the republican party amongst white evangelicals. and it's paying dividends right now. >> i want to put this up, too, this battle between donald trump and jeb bush that we've been seeing. to me, it looks like a one-sided battle. he went on twitter, and he figures, what am i going to do with my free time? jeb bush. why not? jeb bush is weak on illegal immigration. bad on women's health issues and thinks the iraq war was a good

thing. thoo it's clearly getting under jeb bush's skin. when i look at the two of them battle it out in public, it really looks like trump is getting the better of bush. >> i really think trump is getting the better of bush. i think bush is getting the better of himself as well. he has not found his footing. he's not found himself yet. and here you have a dynasty member, someone who you would think because their father was president, their brother was president, he would be presidential. he does not look presidential. he even acknowledged -- i mean, he tried to walk away from his brother at the first debate, talking about it was a bad idea for the war in iraq. so, i mean, i think he's trying to find his own footing in the midst of the 5,000 gop presidential contenders out there. it's a lot of them on that stage. and then he's trying to find himself. and donald trump doesn't make it any better. donald trump is a very intimidating figure. donald trump is very -- i mean, this is the biggest reality show you ever had. and the spotlight is on you. he's trying to be presidential, but we're not in that time when,

you know, reagan was up against a candidate. we're not in a time when clinton was up against a time. we're now in reality tv, entertainment, and trying to step up and put that best face forward. and jeb bush is not doing that. >> it's the theatrics. to battle trump, you're battling a performer. >> exactly. >> and trump -- he is relentless with the bravado and with the bluster. and if you're up there arguing well this is a little wrong, and this is a little off. he's in your face saying no, you're weak. he's going to look strong. >> it's really bright right now nationwide for trump. the poll numbers should probably be better. but the advertising he's getting and exposure. after being on the republican national committee for eight years and knowing most of the operatives, i know the ones that can be their job and jeb bush has those. jeb bush has 130 million, a super pac that's there. patience is the name of the game in the republican party. >> but it's a new game. it's a different game. >> it is a new game, but once the light turns on in south

carolina that is a hardball place, once the light turns on and you start exposing the weaknesses, rand paul tried in new hampshire , it didn't work. once the light turns on with these policies, how far this wall is, the fact that donald trump says anything three times to drive it home. that the word great and terrific are all used. once all these things are wearing off, and you have real campaigns. so to bush's credit, they're patient. this is their business. they know what they're doing. the candidate was rusty, no question. i'm just saying, you haven't seen much of the other side. >> i hear you. but i'm ultimately with april here. >> thank you, thank you. >> i'm wondering if the rules have changed on this one. and that's what we're going to see the next few months. but as you say, we still have a few months for jeb bush to get that rust off. >> slow and steady wins the race. up next, western wildfires continue to spread. we are going to get a live report. stay with us for that. it's more than a network.

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wildfires continue to grow out west. fires now burning in six states. flames in washington state have overtaken another hundred square miles and 200 additional national guardsmen are going to arrive there today to help battle that because. leanne greg joins us now from washington. what can you tell us? >> reporter: hi, steve. the conditions today for firefighters will be hotter and drier. temperatures will be in the 80s and the 90s. relative humidity low. but the wind will be back. a red flag warning will go into effect for north central and eastern washington, will last until 9:00 monday night, but it won't be anything like those winds we saw last week, gusting on friday up to 60 miles an hour and forcing evacuations of thousands of people. about that fire in okanogin county, which is to the north of here, some 500 homes are threatened, but they say that the fire is moving away from those communities now.

some homes have been destroyed, but not entire neighborhoods, like they had feared. the count on how many structures and homes have actually burned will not happen until at least a couple more weeks. as for this area in chelan, the challenge today will be a fire that's burning about ten miles to the northwest of town. the crews are trying to protect some homes along the shoreline as the fire heads to the south. they're building containment lines. they'll be back up in the air. and new resources are on their way, in a lot of areas they'll begin to go on the offensive rather than the defensive now that the winds have died down somewhat. but again, those winds are picking up a little bit today and they always add new challenges. that's the latest from chelan, washington. back to you, steve. >> appreciate that report. still ahead, a horse racing controversy in the 2016 presidential horse race. we'll tell you about that ahead. but first, jeb bush's son comes to his dad's rescue.

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cascade. now that's clean. jeb bush will be traveling to texas tomorrow to make his own inspection of the u.s.-mexico border. it is turning into one of the most contentious debates among republicans in the race. bush finding himself under scrutiny after using the term anchor babies to describe children born to undocumented mothers, language bush was reluctant to clarify. >> do you think the term anchor baby is offensive? >> no. no. if there's another term that i can come up with, i'm happy to hear it. >> using the term anchor baby on the radio -- >> no, i didn't. i don't regret it. do you have a better term? >> i'm asking you. >> you give me a better term and i'll use it. don't yell at me behind my ear, though. >> sorry about that. >> is that not bombastic?

>> no, it isn't. >> jeb's son george p. bush saying in an interview that his father will "pivot" from loaded language about immigration issues, starting with this trip to the border tomorrow. the former florida governor's positions continue to be scrutinized on both the right and the left. matt latimer, who worked in the george w. bush administration writing this week that jeb bush is the candidate hillary clinton most wants to face in the general election. he says that jeb can't distance himself from his brother's invasion of iraq and is struggling to win over his own party's base. that problem may explain why bush still trails donald trump by double digits on the republican side right now. joining the panel right now to talk about jeb bush and his predicament is mark murray, senior political editor for nbc news. it seems to me we've played clips a lot this weekend of donald trump mocking and ridiculing jeb bush. we obviously know that donald trump has carved out quite a name for himself on immigration. this whole dust-up this week, this mess that jeb bush walked

into with his use of the term anchor babies, it seems to me what's at the root of that is he has this strong incentive right now or desire to chase donald trump, and that's what's causing this. >> well, if you want exhibit a about how donald trump has moved the republican party on the issue of immigration, on border security, look no further than jeb bush having to use the term anchor babies. of course, jeb bush is mr. measured comprehensive reform, mr. i have a latina wife, i have latino sons, that, you know, he was supposed to be the person who wasn't going to be using terms like anchor babies. and donald trump has moved the republican party very far to the right on immigration, even by comparison mitt romney self-deportation remark seems very tame. but it is worth noting that in this summer of donald trump where, you know, you get points for being emotional, bombastic,

that someone like jeb bush wasn't ever going to fare very well. he's the wonk. he's measured. the question for the bush campaign is what is the political environment look like two or three months from now? as you and i have been covering politics for a long time, though, sometimes these political movements don't always last. particularly months and months and months. and so it will be interesting to see if this bombastic period inside the republican party continues to last as we are heading into the iowa caucuses and new hampshire primary. >> you know, one of the polls that jumped out at me this week was cnn's poll that they tested hillary versus donald trump, and hillary versus jeb bush, and they actually showed trump faring better than jeb bush against hillary by three points. i wonder, it says something about all the attention donald trump is getting, obviously, but is there a bigger question here about jeb bush's struggles as a candidate? i made the comment the other night, i look at jeb bush speak, i look at his brother george w. speak and say i come away with a

whole new respect for george w. bush as a communicator. >> and when you're having a difficult time, that is always going to end up being the case, that your flaws end up getting magnified even more so. the bush campaign believes that they still have the money, that if they are able to get in a two-person race starting in march, when you have that so-called s.e.c. primary in addition to the march 15th primary, if they're in a two-person race against scott walker, against donald trump, against a ted cruz, they feel like they could actually compete very, very well for the long haul. so that's what they're actually hoping for. you mentioned that cnn poll. to me, it actually seems it's more a reflection of the republican party right now. the more that donald trump takes off, his numbers are going to do better among republicans because he's leading the republican field. and, of course, hillary clinton was still leading all the republicans, including jeb bush. i think one of the things you're referring to, as long as she's winning in head-to-head match-ups against jeb bush, there's still general election

concerns for republicans, that they feel like they can't win a generic clinton versus bush contest. >> you know, jackie, i guess one way of looking at the trump thing is as maybe ultimately a positive for the bush campaign would be this idea that they get it down to a one-on-one somehow, jeb bush versus donald trump, and then republicans are forced to choose sides. i guess that might be better for the bush campaign than one-on-one against like marco rubio. >> but the thing is, you have to imagine -- jeb bush has to be careful. mark was saying this. that he's supposed to be the adult. he's supposed to be the measured person. when you hear him use terms like anchor baby, you wonder what's happening there. because if he dilutes his brand, it's going to make it a lot heard down the line if they want to go to a general election. and i was surprised to hear that come out of someone like jeb bush's mouth, because he is the adult. and so far, he's kind of treated donald trump with an eye roll in a lot of ways. and that comment to me means donald trump's getting under his skin and it's getting to him. >> what do you make of jeb bush

as a candidate? >> you know, i'm certainly -- the bushes have always been revered in politics, and jeb has a record in florida that he's still not talking about. and much like hillary clinton, he started the campaign off on the wrong foot, trying to apologize and be a moderate and introduce himself. that's the first time i've seen jeb bush get testy. at least he took up for himself, pointed at the guy. so, you know, i'm surprised he's not better. but there's plenty of time. he's not the orator that everybody would want. he's also going against a reality star that's very talented. so what he does know is this process. and april's right. the process has changed. it's evolved. i mean, what trump's got now is occupy the republican party. he's got that movement going and they're listening to him. what we all understand that hasn't changed is this process of delegates and the process of how it gets more serious each month. right now, we're in the early

part of this stage, so bush has the ability to move through, but there's a lot of qualified folks out there. you're saying there's 17, 16 of them. >> 5,000 of them. >> it's going to morph. the debates matter. the cnn debate coming up. let's see if donald trump's able to bully them the way he bullied fox after this last debate. because those questions were fair in the debate. >> i've got to say, in a republican primary, if you as a republican can get away with bullying fox news, you can probably get away with bull lig cnn. thanks to mark murray for joining us this morning. coming up, new dwoevelopments about the man identified in the train attack in france. we'll try to explain why donald trump is doing so well with republican voters. some numbers to talk about there. that's still ahead. stay with us. you show up.

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turning now to developing news in our top story of the morning. we are now getting our first picture of the man that belgium's chief prosecutor has identified as the suspect in friday's train attack in france. he's a 26-year-old moroccan named ayoub el khazzani. police officials say he has ties to radical islam. he was known to authorities in three european countries. now, this photo was taken from a social media network. that suspect is currently in custody, and in an interview on french television this morning, his lawyer says of her client, "that he thought he was carrying out a robbery to buy food and money." investigators are still looking at whether the attack was part of a wider framework. president obama meanwhile called the three american men who stopped the attack to thank them on behalf of the american people for their courage. turning now back to politics, and the republican party has been out thing their strongest

in history. >> i really think when you go back and look historically, going back to the beginning of time, there's never been a party as you're seeing this year that's had the abundance of riches that we have. the depth of the people that are potentially running and have announced that they're running is unbelievable. >> the idea at the start of this was there were governors, there were senators, there was a whole class of new impressive candidates elected in that republican wave of 2010. and now was going to be their time to shine. but look at the latest surveys. it's the outsiders who are the top ones, at the top of the poll, not just donald trump who's still leading the field, but also neurosurgeon ben carson has polled strongly for months now, and carly fiorina, the former ceo of hewlett-packard making a surge into the top ten following her strong performance in the debate at the beginning of the month. these party outsiders all performing -- outperforming the experienced men of the republican field. the governors, the senators, the politicians, so what does that

say about them and what they need to do? joining us now from d.c. is eliana johnson. i guess that to me is the bigger story on the republican side. it's not just that trump has taken off. it's that ben carson has taken off. it's even for that matter that ted cruz is taking off, ted cruz in office, but really runs as the ultimate anti-politician candidate. and meanwhile, where is rubio? where is walker? where is all the names we thought we were going to be hearing about? >> sure. it's a great point, steve. i think it's interesting. donald trump has really put a strangle hold on the race right now. because he's a personality driven candidate. not an ideological candidate. but when you look at someone like carly fiorina, she's somebody who has risen solely on the basis of her communication skills. i think that really speaks to the fact that it's been a long time since republicans have felt like they had a candidate who could really communicate with voters, and who could move

voters solely on the basis of their argumentation skills. think back. we had mitt romney, john mccain, bob dole. george w. bush, for that matter. these are not people who republicans thought could move voters and communicate with them. and donald trump speaks to this, too. so i think that really is the reason why a lot of these outsiders have risen to the top of the pack. >> yeah, and i wonder, do you think the media, the political world in general has -- is this a sign we've misunderstood the conservative base a little bit, when you look at like a scott walker, you look at marco rubio, they're running in many ways the paint by numbers campaign for a conservative candidate. they're checking off all the boxes that you're supposed to check off to win over the conservative base, and yet the conservative base right now not getting excited about them. >> well, i think there's often an emphasis on resume. like oh, we want a governor, somebody with executive experience. but people respond more viscerally to candidates and that's what you're seeing with trump and fiorina.

their charisma. their communication skills. these are intangible skills that you don't see on a resume. and i think those are things people are often more reluctant to talk about. because they're not tangible skills, and that's what people are responding to. >> we were having this conversation earlier about the idea that maybe the rules have changed this time around. the rules say that these candidates are going to be very, you know, fleeting sensations, fleeting phenomenons on the republican side, and that's what i'm wondering. is that going to be the case, or have things changed enough that it's different? >> we're in the time of social media. we're in the time of reality tv. donald trump has a name. he's had a name. and, i mean, i think friday was the biggest reality tv moment for him since the gop debate. i mean, you know, people want to see fireworks and he's giving us that. unfortunately, the tried and true candidates who talk policy, who talk about, you know, let's fix the economy, people don't want to hear all the thus,

thous, the where arts, they want to hear laymans turns, and donald trump has given that. but there's other substance of the plan that donald trump is talking about. so we're seeing a new day. we're seeing ben carson and carly fiorina. ben carson, a surgeon who had a problem with geography. and, you know, that's the thing. >> and katon, in that first debate, ben carson is the one that surprised me the most. because to me, he did the least of anybody on that stage. the most memorable thing he said was, you know, i thought you forgot i was here. and yet, his numbers are up after the debate. >> and his comment about brain surgery. that was a cute, quick moment. back to the other thing, what the outsiders get to do inside the republican party is run against government. and that's what strikes a chord right now. they get to -- they're not a part of it. they haven't been there. they haven't governed. those are all pluses right now, especially to a red meat base

who's saying, you know, i am fed up with politicians. i am fed up with washington. i'm fed up with my state house. but they're not fed up with their house member. they're not fed up with their senator. they're just fed up. trump is promising things to a lot of people -- he's promising we're going to be rich again, and he's telling people, i'm going to make you rich. >> trust me, it's going to be great. you're going to love it. i was saying in one of the breaks, i'm going to start using this in my personal life. trust me, it's going to be great. you're going to love it, april, you're going to love it. thanks to eliana johnson of the national review. you agree, we love you. still ahead, we'll talk about the fake presidential candidate who is hoping to have a real impact on the race. donald trump has proven his republican rock star status this week, but does he have staying power? that is ahead. stay with us. stop! they have a special! so, what did you guys think of the test drive? i love the jetta. but what about a deal?

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there's a lot going on this morning. lest get caught up on some of the other headlines making news with today's panel. let's turn first to the hill and see what's going on here. here's what i never thought i'd be saying on television. deez nuts endorses sanders in dem primary. a 15-year-old kid in iowa named brady olson has been running a campaign for a candidate he calls deez nuts. deez nuts, by the way, ppp, the polling firm, put this fake candidate in some horse races in north carolina. deez nuts got 9%, in minnesota 8%, 7% in iowa. numbers a lot of republican candidates would kill for. this is also from the hill headline, chafee rips -- i'm going to defend that on trump here. in that speech on friday night, donald trump seemed to attack the great racehorse secretariat,

the triple crown winner from 1973. he said secretariat, not that great, if you want to know the truth. he went after him and said this statement is another splash of nonsense that. k comes out of trump's mouth. >> no horse has come close to secretariat. >> but absolutely, greatest racehorse of all time, if not number two. no question. what trump was talking about was bloodline. trump was talking about the post-race career. because the whole theme of that -- secretariat as a sire, the 20-year career as a sire was not that great. secretariat as a racehorse, the best ever. >> i live in the baltimore area, the second of the triple crown. secretariat is huge, okay? the bloodlines -- i believe there's something coming down the road somewhere. so i think he might have spoken too soon. i love secretariat. >> the greatest, the best ever. as a sire, not that great. still ahead, a full hour of news and politics. stay with us.

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the rise of donald trump. all right. thanks for staying with us this sunday morning. when you take a look at the morning headlines, it's clear that the political world is coming to terms, or at least trying to come to terms with the idea that donald trump is in the presidential race to stay, and maybe, just maybe has a shot at the republican nomination. in just a moment, we're going to have more on the substance of donald trump's appeal to republican voters, but first, we want to return to the other big story of the morning. the moves made by vice president joe biden yesterday that are fueling a new round of speculation about whether he will run for president. for more on that, we're going to go to nbc's kristen welker. she is up there in martha's vineyard where the president's on vacation. so kristen, this was big news yesterday. elizabeth warren, big hero in the democratic side, having this

meeting with joe biden. what are you hearing about what this means? >> very big news, steve. we know that vice president biden surprisingly left his home in delaware, traveled to washington to meet with senator elizabeth warren. this is the biggest sign yet that he is seriously considering a run. we know he's been huddling with family, his supporters and close allies the past several weeks. but this really kicks it up a notch. elizabeth warren of course is a progressive champion. she was pressed to run for president. she declined. the fact that you see vice president biden meeting with her suggests that he's letting her know that he's mulling a run, and of course, if he were to throw his hat into the ring, she could be critical to winning over those key progressive democrats who have not been flocking to secretary clinton, by the way. the broader context to this, steve, is that secretary clinton is still the strong democratic frontrunner. on the other hand, there are some real concerns that she could be vulnerable in a general election. if you talk to democrats. and of course, you now have polls showing that a majority of

democrats, 53% according to this cnn poll, want vice president biden to run. some of the reasons that he's considering running, he's always wanted to run for president, and he's also, i have been told, concerned about the prospects of the democrats holding on to the white house. the reasons against her is dividing the party and he's still mourning the death of his son beau. we are anticipating a decision over the next several weeks. back to you. >> thank you, kristen welker. appreciate that. let's now take a closer look at what's driving donald trump to the top of the republican field. he continues to draw crowds of supporters and strong poll numbers by espousing a brand of conservativism that often runs contrary to what the other candidates believe, positions that are clearly resonating with a segment of republican voters, even as his opponents decry them. not just with immigration, but other issues. surprising issues for a republican maybe. issues like social security. >> for me, conservativism, as it

peruz pertains to our country is fiscal. we have been strong and secure and get rid of our debt. i'm on the little bit social side of conservative. i want people to be taken care of from a health care standpoint. but to do that, we have to be strong. i want to save social security without cuts. i want a strong country. to me, conservative means a strong country with very little debt. >> the republican in the race for president who's against making cuts to social security. trump also marching to the beat of his own drum when it comes to iraq. >> for years, i've been saying don't go into iraq. if they went into iraq, they destabilized the middle east, it was a big mistake. okay. now we're there, and you have isis. i said this was going to happen. i said iran will take over iraq, which is happening, as sure as you're sitting there, and isis is taking over a lot of the oil and certain areas of iraq. and i said you take away their wealth. you go and knock the hell out of the oil, take back the oil. we take over the oil.

which we should have done in the first place. >> whether it's talking about single payer health care, social security, bluntly criticizing the iraq war. how do you explain how donald trump has managed to gain support among conservatives, among republicans while holding these views? well, let's take a look at the big board here and explain things a little bit. let's start with first of all immigration, we can stipulate we know that's a winner with the republican party base, but say overall about 80% of the country, close to 80% of the country saying they would like immigration to either remain at the same level or to be reduced. so there's a broad base of support there that trump taps into, not just on the republican side, but maybe a lot of independents there. even some democrats. so that could be key to his numbers. but let's take a look at some other maybe surprising areas. social security. here's one. a lot of conservatives talk about the need to cut social security. they say save social security but cutting social security. but ask people around the country, what do you want to do to it? do you want to increase it? more than half of them say they do. you want to keep it the same?

nearly half of them say they do. do you actually want to decrease it? only 6% of them actually want to decrease it. so that's a very minority view, even within the republican party. and yet it's not a common view necessarily among republican politicians and republican candidates. so that's something that donald trump is tapping into. how about this one? how about iraq. how about everything he says about iraq, how he bashes george w. bush's decision to go into iraq. he calls it one of these great foreign policy blunders in american history. take a look at this. was iraq worth the cost, or was it not worth the cost? overwhelmingly among all americans, they say it wasn't worth the cost, but that is even true among republicans. look at that. more than 60% of republicans say that iraq was not worth the cost. now, think about that. think about donald trump on the stage, on the debate stage with all those other republicans. he is the only one besides maybe rand paul who will bluntly criticize george w. bush's decision to go into iraq in the first place. he doesn't hedge it. he doesn't talk about the surge. he doesn't talk about barack obama's failures, and he just

talks about that decision by george w. bush and he's tapping into something there on the republican side that no other republican candidate is tapping into. of course, donald trump has his own reasons why he thinks the voters like him. >> i think the voters like me, they understand me, they know i'm going to do the job. i'm going to do a lot of things. almost everything. you want to know? what things am i going to do different? almost everything. because that's what has to happen. everything we do is wrong. >> all right, let's talk about this with our panel this morning. jackie kucinich of "the daily beast" is back. april ryan with american urban radio networks. and katon dawson, south carolina director for rick perry 2016. katon, it's your party, so take us inside it. because this is fascinating to me. i think we're learning a little something about the conservative movement watching donald trump tap into it here. because for years, we've thought the only way to win over conservatives is you've got to cut social security, you want to cut the safety net, you want the government to be as small as possible. here's donald trump, a guy who

will still stand up there and say single payer health care works in some places. i don't want to cut social security. he has no problem saying that iraq was a blunder, squarely at the feet of george w. bush, and yet there's a lot of republicans out there who are nodding their heads. >> i think april said it earlier. the biggest movement inside the republican party has been the constitutional movement, to obey the constitution, pay attention to it. but trump's brilliant at strong, great, terrific, this is what i'm going to do. the thing that gets me about this is one of the things that the republican party has been so upset and still is upset about is executive orders, the power of the presidency, how president obama has really upped the game of how powerful a president is, and that's what's been so distasteful to the base is the process. so he is approaching this as if a single person in america can be president of the united states and make all these things happen, as if there's no senator elected for the people, by the

people. but he's able to get away with it right now. he's able to paint with this really broad brush, to get into -- he's almost telling people, look, i'm going to make you rich. and the point is he's talking about government. you let me control the government, we're going to be great. and i'm going to do almost everything. it works right now. and it's fun to watch. he has a chance. i'm going to give him better odds. this guy's shelf life is going to last a while. but when you start looking at -- give me the hows and whys, and maybe it won't matter. it will matter in a general election. it will matter in a debate. the debate between joe biden and donald trump will be the best theatre you'll ever see. >> but right now, facts are kind of canceled. he's talking about iraq. he says he doesn't want troops there. and yet to secure the oil fields and ring there with troops, that's sending more troops in. that's so besides the point at this point. and he's talking about not cutting programs that cost the

country a lot of money. there's no rhyme or reason. >> what i think he's tapping into, as i try to figure this out, there's pure anti-government ideology. you hear that a lot on the right. you always assume that's what republican candidates need to be espousing and trump snlt. it's this fear of redistribution that exists among the republican base.isn't. it's this fear of redistribution that exists among the republican base. it gets down to a sense of cultural anxiety, that me, that us, that our people, that our tribe, our coalition, however you want to define it, our money is being taken, and it's being spent on illegal immigrants. it's spent on groups that are not part of our group. >> we talked about this our group, us versus them. it causes division. i'm not going to use the term that was used, because i had never heard the term before. i'm one who doesn't use it. but when you start going down

that line of division, what do we see recently? when we start going down that line, we're going to see more and more of it. that is a problem, us versus them. you have the hispanics and the blacks. we're not hearing anything from the republican party on the -- for african-americans in this country. once you go down the road talking about one group, you start talking about another. i heard it from the head of the rnc, he said we are more united than divided. there's more division right now. i'm seeing more division. >> this is actually proof in the pudding that trump is taking up the oxygen. because rick perry actually has been talking about the african-american community. >> we haven't heard from rick perry. >> he said it. >> we're not hearing about it. >> it's true. trump is this giant golden shiny

object that we can't help but gravitate towards. >> and prison reform, educational reform. this is an election that's going to get real deep in the weeds for a while. but it matters. it matters whether you can govern. that all matters. but for some reason, it doesn't matter in the electorate today. and that's the difference we talked about. and this is a changing environment of running for president. so donald trump has the megaphone. he's gotten two hours of our show this morning. he's gotten all last week. and that's good. >> and he's going to get more. >> let me ask you. we'll take a minute away from trump here. but i want to ask you about the candidate you're supporting. four years ago, he came onto the race as the great hope of conservatives. he's out there again. there are reports of staffers not being paid more. i know there's a super pac out there. he did not make it into the top ten for that first debate. he probably won't make it into the second debate on cnn. can the rick perry campaign last? >> you know, it can. it can. and so can a lot of others

because it's early in the process. money doesn't make a big difference. but there's your difference in trump and perry. this is a guy who did big things in texas. 27 million people. it hasn't seemed to matter so far. i mean, credentials haven't seemed to matter so far. personalities have mattered. and maybe because the cycle has changed. >> is he frustrated? >> he is a happy warrior. frustrated financially. i mean, this is a guy who's won 18 elections, raised $92 million. came in the race hurt last time. policy-wise, i mean, he's dead on the mark if we were having a normal primary. dead on the mark. i mean, he touches all the bases of conservatism. but right now it hasn't mattered so far. >> apparently, they are watching the candidates who have the smaller numbers just fall along

the wayside as they're spending six to $7 to their $1 and they're watching this, and they're saying that some of these candidates who have that small number, the percentage point, they're vying for, jockeying for vice president positions if trump or another candidate -- is that the case? are you hearing that? >> well, trump is able to pivot and nobody holds him accountable. he's worth $10 billion, give or take a dime. how liquid is a real estate developer? they're usually not that liquid. a billion dollars, and that's a billion after tax dollars. so it's going to cost two billion dollars. trump in alabama tried to pivot. offer me 15 million, i'm a guy who should take it. >> i think the exact phrase was take it and screw 'em. i think they're selling those hats, those make america great again, i think they're selling

them. you have to fill out a campaign donor card if you go and get it. >> it won't matter. it won't matter. >> anyway, still ahead for president jimmy carter, spending his sunday like any other sunday. he is getting ready to teach sunday school in his hometown. but first, the countdown begins for the republican debate. if it's anything like the first, it will be the best reality show on it's, the merger of politics and entertainment. stay with us. [ school bell rings ]

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start the countdown clock, check the cupboard for popcorn, because we are now only three and a half weeks away from the next republican debate. on september 16th, the candidates will once again take the stage in two different

groups, this time out at the ronald reagan presidential library in california. it is promising to be another night full of geeky political fun. donald trump also threatening to not appear in the next debate, unless he gets a $10 million check that he will then give to charity. that's the offer he is making right now. the man has clearly seen the ratings for the first debate. one of the moderators of that first debate pretty much declaring carly fiorina the winner among the lower polling candidates, as a result of her performance that night she has surged in the polls. but it's still unclear whether recent polls will be enough for her to graduate and make it to the main stage for the second debate. so many story lines yet to unfold for what is quickly becoming my favorite reality show or soap opera. i want to talk about these debates, almost as entertainment. when you see the ratings, 25 million people watch this thing. to put that in some perspective, four years ago, the average republican primary debate was getting about 5 million people. we've never seen, never, a

primary debate in either party that got the kind of audience that they did in cleveland. i just think donald trump walked away from "the apprentice," got into the race. this is the new "apprentice." this is the new reality show phenomenon. >> i did the first debate, i ran the first fox debate in '08, which started the debate series. i remember talking to msnbc, cnn, and fox on who we were going to award the debate to. at that time, the awards were debated by the states. i remember saying i want advertising. originally the debate was going to have no advertising. it was going to be a news event only. >> why did you want advertising? >> i'm a republican. guys, i want to create jobs, i want to create wealth, i want advertising, i want candidates who wanted to advertise on it. i thought it was a natural thing. i also thought it was probably good for the network. let's just don't give away two hours worth of air time. so now, i get with trump, who's got 26 million, which is good,

makes our tent bigger, the 26 million people watching everybody. but my point is, that advertising fee has now changed, and now it has become reality. when you start drawing -- we had about 5.6 million and i got a thank-you note from fox. and in the second debate in myrtle beach with about 6.5 million, and it was a big deal, those kind of numbers. so let's see if trump -- let's see what he's going to do. >> this is one thing where i think trump is right. when he says hey, if i wasn't in the debate, you'd have two million people watching. >> super bowl type fees for anything surrounding it. but, you know, i mean, i think that this next debate -- if trump drops out, i think the air will be taken out, honestly. for him to put a price tag, that's not presidential. but, you know -- >> it's a terrible precedent. >> but the point -- >> it does show that the situation these networks are in. it gets into this fight that donald trump had with fox news. what republican candidate could

go to war with fox news and win? well, the republican candidate who delivers 25 million viewers an all-time record for fox. >> but the bigger issue is that donald trump is going to have to understand, you are running for president. there is a phone call, the press questioning you for accountability. you can't say it's none of your business because the american public needs to know. we ask questions of the president, forree ere eyou to what's going on. we're the only thing that comes close to the president. >> that was the point i was making when we made the decision to go to commercials, it was a pretty big decision in 2008 is -- because they looked at it as a news event. this is all news. so now debates have changed into a financial -- >> now i know who to blame for that. this is terrible. why do we have commercial breaks in the middle of a presidential debate. >> i was there when we started it. >> you need to transcribe. that's a large block of time that you lose financial revenue.

i guess from the corporate side of that, that's probably it. but also, they realize -- i mean, how many people again? >> you're selling advertising time against 25 million viewers. >> even though it's news, it's still business. >> i get ad time in the debate. we did everything we could to say we won the debate, and when we threw ad time up there, bingo. >> you do wonder, though, if trump does drop out of this next debate and candidates who haven't gotten to talk actually get a chance to talk, those debates aren't finite. you don't have a debate and never hear from it again. those clips will live on and they'll keep playing even if donald trump drops out of it. not as many people will be watching, but some of those candidates will get their words in edge wise. so they probably are crossing their fingers. >> that first debate, the kids table debate that we all ridiculed, that drew six million viewers. so even that one. up next, we're going to go live

down to plains, georgia, where jimmy carter is about to go back to work after beginning cancer treatment this week. >> i plan to teach sunday school this sunday and every sunday as long as i'm physically and mentally able. when something works, people stick with it. more people stick with humana medicare advantage. because we stick with them. humana medicare advantage. the plan people stick with.

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boysenberry apple scones smell about done. ahh, you're good. i like to bake. add new business services with at&t and get up to $500 in total savings. some live pictures this morning out of the baptist church in plains, georgia, the spiritual home of former president jimmy carter. carter is going to be teaching sunday school there just minutes from now. this will be the 39th president's first class there since sharing his cancer diagnosis with the world on thursday, and just days since he began his treatment. nbc's gabe gutierrez joins us live on the phone. he is inside that church in plains. gabe, what can you tell us about what's going on there? >> i'm actually here in the lobby of the church. it's absolutely packed. hundreds of people came here.

the line started forming before dawn. this is obviously the hometown of jimmy carter. he is loved here in plains. this is where he and his wife grew up, they met. this church on a typical sunday is a congregation of 30 people or so, but today, people have come from far and wide to see the 39th president of the united states. >> had an opportunity to go, and i heard about the cancer diagnosis. and i said, i really have to go. >> just to see somebody that can live out that faith i think just says a lot. >> what an amazing man he is that he potentially could be facing death with that attitude. >> reporter: back to live pictures inside the church. local officials are speaking right now.

he's scheduled to teach sunday school for about 45 minutes to an hour, and then regular sunday services will begin. but there's a sense here that you're very excited to see him, there's an emotional week. many people throughout the country want to see what he has to say this morning, steve. >> all right. nbc's gabe gutierrez inside jimmy carter's church down there in plains, georgia. thank you for that. still ahead, where will the obamas live when they leave the white house? we have new reporting on that for you. and next, by-products in the race for iowa. what may be our geekiest segment yet. stay tuned for that. lean better than a manual. he said sure... but don't get just any one. get one inspired by dentists. with a round brush head. go pro with oral-b. oral-b's rounded brush head

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how much prot18%?does your dog food have? 20? introducing nutrient-dense purina one true instinct with real salmon and tuna and 30% protein. support your active dog's whole body health with purina one. every four years, presidential candidates face the same questions from voters in iowa.

do they support ethanol subsidies? and what about the federal mandate that requires all gasoline to have a certain percentage of biofuels, biofuels like ethanol in it? it's a question that has the power to cost candidates the iowa caucuses. that's the reputation, at least. their jobs. anthony tyrell is here to tell us what he found out. we hear about this every four years. the first in the nation state is iowa. you have to talk about ethanol if you're in iowa. >> this is one issue that united states democrats and republicans in the state. they're urging presidential candidates to get behind the mandate because it helps their economy and it can translate into votes. in iowa, corn is king. and almost half of all iowa corn goes into ethanol production. and a federal mandate requiring at least 10% ethanol and other biofuels and gasoline has generated $4 billion of income for iowans, and that is why every four years the issue generates lots of attention from

presidential candidates. >> it's important because it's a huge income earner iowans. we grow a lot of corn here. >> i wouldn't say it's 100% make or break, but it is as close to a make or break issue as you can get in the state. >> scott walker showed support for the mandate earlier this year, but has since favored getting rid of the requirements in the long term. >> the bottom line is it's in place right here, and we think over time, all the different standards should be phased out. >> scott walker told me earlier today he'd like to phase it out. >> no. >> in the past, being against ethanol subsidies was one sure way of losing the iowa caucus. while liz mare learned the hard way. you've gotten a little bit of back and forth this year on your position with ethanol. >> yes. and farm subsidies as well, yes. >> in march, she was forced to resign from scott walker's pac, one day after she was hired.

after she sent tweets critical of iowa's reliance on federal support for ethanol. she was back in iowa at the state fair speaking out against what she sees as republican hypocrisy on the issue. >> there's a challenge here, right? because the true free market limited government position is not supportive of mandates, and that would include the ethanol mandate. the question is simply do we all need to have it blended onto our fuel? >> the question is will i support it, the answer is yes. >> mike huckabee and rick santorum both support the ethanol mandate. this year, that position may not be necessary to win. top conservatives like senator ted cruz have been defiant. publicly standing against the mandate. >> without a federal mandate, ethanol will continue to be demanded by the refiners. it is competitive in the marketplace. and we don't need it mandated by the federal government. >> the conventional wisdom is that you don't win iowa by being against ethanol subsidies, but that may no longer be the case.

the bigger question is how the issue sways voters in this crucial swing state come the first tuesday in november of 2016. >> again, it may not affect them so much in the caucuses. but it sure will affect it in the general election. >> and this is an issue where you see the iowa establishment versus outsider candidates having this tension where some candidates are now saying they want to phase it out. they want to really phase this thing out. but this is really putting pressure on them. you see with ted cruz rising in the polls, you may not have to be for the mandate this year to win the iowa caucus. >> that's interesting, because this is one of those stories that gets written every four years. this is the issue that matters most in iowa. every candidate, you know, runs at their own risk. john mccain back in 2000, one of the reasons he didn't contest iowa was because of this issue, and yet you're saying maybe that stigma on the republican side may be gone. >> right. well, look, mitt romney was also in favor of this. that was a one-two punch with rick santorum. this year with ted cruz coming

out against it, i talked to the chairman of the republican party of iowa, who you saw right there. he respected the fact that ted cruz came out and had a thorough explanation. he said you're going to have a heck of a time winning iowa being against it, but at least be honest with the iowa voters. >> what do you guys make of how the candidates are -- scott walker, it's been a little unclear exactly where he comes down. that's been true on a couple issues. >> i'm like, what issue are we talking about? >> it could be other issues, but again, you can see that fear for scott walker of historically, i can't be on this side. but, you know, if i'm going to be the sort of tea party conservative, i have to be. >> i think the lack of a coherent position on scott walker on ethanol will hurt him. you're ted cruz and you're saying listen, this is what i believe, because i'm ted cruz, that's one thing. but if you're all over the place, you look like you're trying to find the sweet spot of where iowa voters will vote for you, i think that's more hurtful than maybe being against ethanol. >> this was supposed to be walker's state. >> and you never see the ethanol

transfer down into south carolina, florida. april hit it a moment ago on break. we dealt with toe become bacco, wasn't in the middle of a presidential campaign. it wasn't enough voters. the income massive to south carolina and north carolina for tobacco subsidies and they're gone. the market operates in a free marketplace. but it depends on how far down, because this is an issue that ted cruz can make hey three states down. because i'm a conservative. subsidies aren't something that republican party is always for. i guess you're gambling to say that because he can. >> that's an investment in layman's terms, going into it a little bit more. when you cut the subsidies, you affect the families there and the farming industry, the corn farming industry. i have a family from north carolina who was a big tobacco farming family, and it's no more -- you drive through there. a lot of families are really

having problems trying to recruit after losing that tobacco money. so the same thing could happen in iowa if they do cut subsidies. >> this is one of those moments where it's challenging republicans with their free market principles, so those in iowa obviously have an incentive to support it. i was surprised to see the chairman of the party tell me sometimes you need government intervention if you want the country to go with its trend. >> funny how that works. but outside of the republican primary, the general election, there may be broader support for it there. a republican running on that free market principle in the fall, comes back to iowa, faces a different electorate, could be problematic then. >> one of the questions some of the activists ask me to ask candidates, to ask scott walker how much ethanol are you willing to put in your harley? how much ethanol are you willing to put in your boat? there's some issues in ethanol and how it affects the vehicles. so it's a question i'm looking forward to an answer for. >> we are, too. thanks to anthony terrell for

this story. and also, news for all you panda lovers out there. the smithsonian national zoo announcing the births of two bouncing baby giant pandas last night. twins. the two cubs born last night are healthy and under the care of veterinarians. they are hopeful that they can survive these cautious early days. the pais baby pandas mean that the zoo has five pandas in residence now. this for the first time ever. her other child is celebrating her 2nd birthday at the zoo this morning. still ahead, a key vote of support for president obama's foreign policy legacy. details on that are ahead. but first, will the first family return to chicago when the president leaves office? new reporting on that. stay with us. parts, ♪ 800,000 hours of supercomputing time, 3 million lines of code, 40,000 sets of eyes, or a million sleepless nights. whether it's building

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tribune." headline, where will the obamas live after the white house? probably not chicago. of course, the president had set up shop there for years before becoming president. the couple say they're likely to remain in d.c. after their president's term ends so their daughter sasha can finish high school. they have started telling friends that they plan on making new york city their home after that. they haven't spent extended time in chicago in the past seven years. the clintons came to new york after they left office. the obamas may end up in new york. richard nixon ended up in new york for some time. >> close to a golf course. that's the guarantee. >> that's true of any former president, isn't it? >> but the library will be there, so they'll have some roots there. >> he went to columbia. >> i like the fact that he's staying for the stability of his daughter. for the youngest daughter. that's good. >> you get the impression everything you read about the obamas, that they would rather get out of washington as soon as they can. >> especially mrs. obama. she's like, i'm done.

let's go. >> the associated press headline, kentucky gop okays caucus. we set this up yesterday, but this was the key thing. trying to run for president. that primary in kentucky. both of those races in the same day. the law says you can't be on the ballot twice, you've got to pick. so paul said i'm not going to pick. asked the state party to change to a caucus for the presidential election. yesterday the state party agreed to do that. >> i've orun one of those for eight years. that tells me they don't think he's going to be president. it's going to be so close that they're not going to be able to get another person on the ballot. tells me that they said, you know, i guess we like him, we want him to be our senator, we want that ability. >> so you're saying that if they set it up this way and rand paul gets the nomination for senate in kentucky, they can't change him out if he's running for president. >> i didn't see the time factor of how it was possible. so then they leave an open seat there. >> i've got to say. i covered new jersey -- i remember in new jersey, the law said you had to do it three

months before. they changed candidates a month before. >> kentucky might can do that, too. >> ask a man named doug forrester in new jersey about that one. one more headline. this is from "time." clinton campaign on alert for undercover security sting. clinton supporters in an effort to catch or trap the campaign in improper or illegal activity. so one of them tried to pass a cash donation to clinton volunteers. another asked how to falsify an address for a campaign donation. these techniques match those of a group called project veritas. they declined to comment on the clinton campaign's allegations. looks like the clintons sniffed them out. >> doing things like hey, here's a roll of cash. but this is something that the modern campaign has to watch out for. >> also, campaigns are so fast, especially at the level -- talking about interns here. any hillary clinton office around the country and you find one intern, a $20 bill and the

intern doesn't take it. >> exactly. >> and you've got it on video. and the damning video of hillary clinton subverting the law comes out. >> you're in trouble for that intern who doesn't know. >> so we'll see if something comes to that, or if the clintons actually did get it out in time. let's change gears a little bit. "the guardian." john mcenroe, the tennis legend says he could beat serena williams. mcenroe age 56 said on jimmy kimmel he could still beat williams who is age 33. he also said donald trump once offered to stage a match between the two of them 15 years ago. the number one women's tennis player in the world. she could capture a calendar grand slam at the u.s. open later this month. john mcenroe was to be known as the best bobby riggs. >> he can dream. >> exactly. >> i'm gentlemanly to say that, isn't it? >> it's ungentlemanly, but he's delusional. >> she'd beat him. >> she would beat him. >> all four of us would watch it. >> trump was offering 15 years

ago. maybe there's some way for him to stage this. >> i would put on the biggest, the most terrific match between mcenroe and williams. >> but it would be so classy. >> trust me. >> you want to see this. >> my thanks to today's panel. the classiest. the finest panel. >> yes! >> you've ever seen on this show. jackie kucinich, april ryan, katon dawson. thank you all for being here. and up next, the president has more reasons to smile these days, other than simply because he's going on vacation. he's on vacation at martha's vineyard. the very latest on where support stands for his iran nuclear deal. that is straight ahead.

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verify itself. the news that iran would be allowed to use its own inspectors to oversee its nuclear facilities was all the news that critics needed to continue to pound the deal. the obama administration added a key vote of support this week from new york congressman jerry nadler, a democrat and loyal friend of israel who becomes the first jewish member of the new york delegation to back the deal. joining me now is roger cohen, a columnist and former foreign correspondent for "the new york times." roger, thanks for taking a few minutes this morning. i wonder first, in terms of the politics of this deal, we have jerry nadler coming onboard and supporting it. do you expect right now that this will survive this congressional review process and the deal will stand? >> yeah, hi, steve. it is a hugely divisive issue, but i do think in the end the president has the votes to be able to withstand any attempted override of his veto. i think the congress is going to vote resolutions, rejecting the deal.

the president will veto it. and then it would require 25% defection among democrats. for him to be able to resist the override. for a momentous deal like this, it's not an ideal way for the country to adopt it, and that's reflects what a contentious divisive issue this is. >> you wrote this week about the opposition that the campaign against this deal looked at some of the traditional jewish pro-israel groups that are opposing this, benjamin netanyahu, and you wrote that rather than listen to netanyahu, american jews should listen to the longest serving jewish member of the house, sander m.levin, who supports the agreement. are we seeing something new here where you see five jewish senators coming out in support of this. is that different from in the past when these pro-israel groups would weigh in? would opinion be more uniform? >> i think it is a little

different. right now, you have the largest of the groups putting a lot of money behind trying to get this deal rejected, maybe as much as $20 million, and then you have the little upstart j street weighing in in favor of the deal. the more liberal organization. but, of course, the money they have is a lot less. i think the fact that they're supporting this deal -- it reflects the fact that i think these are two guys who have taken a long, hard look at this deal. if we could weigh the magic wand. >> i think what secretary kerry and the president has negotiated is about the best way to do that. >> and one of the arguments that the president that. >> one of the arguments the

president made in favor of this is to this deal is war, maybe not now, but sometime soon, that's what the president. maybe not soon but in the end. >> i do. because if you don't reduce the number of centrifuges, if you don't get rid of 20% uranium, if you don't have this highly intense supervision which is all in the deal, what do you go back to? the fact is china and russia will defect, there will be no more sanctions against iran, iran will resume what it had been doing until this diplomacy of the president began. that is to say, increasing the number of centrifuges, moving steadily closer to a bomb, and no president of the united states i think, would be prepared to accept a nuclear-armed islamic republic. at that point the question becomes, what do you do? i think military action probably at that point becomes the only way. now, prime minister netanyahu in the webcast to major jewish organizations said he found the

president's contention that this would lead to war if the deal failed. outrageous. and i think this was typical of the way that the prime minister of israel has managed, whether intentionally or not, i think probably not, but he has offended president obama. he has very rarely said thank you for all the support that this president continues to give israel and will, i'm sure, do so until the end of his term despite these differences, and it's very unfortunate that relations between the president and the prime minister are so bad. look, the irani regime can be a very oe prdepressing regime, any have come out against a colleague of mine with the wall street journal alleging that she -- this is just typical of what people in iran do. that doesn't change the fact in my view that if you weigh

everything and weigh also the fact that there are more liberal elements in iran, including the president and foreign minister, that this deal is the best way to go. >> all right, roger cohen with the "new york times." thanks for taking a few minutes with us. i appreciate it. thank you at home for getting up with us today. up next is melissa harris-perry. have a great week. (dorothy) toto, i've a feeling we're not in kansas anymore... (morpheus) after this, there is no turning back. (spock) history is replete with turning points. (kevin) wow, this is great. (commentator) where fantasy becomes reality!

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