we know what it means to serve. get an insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. ♪ >> good morning, everybody. welcome to "morning joe." with us on set here in new york city, we've got mike barnicle and nicole wallace and jeremy peters is in washington. how are you? there's a lot going on. >> massive new poll coming out at 7:00, quinnipiac poll out of iowa. certainly going to tell us which way the race is going. >> indication. we'll get to that soon. but first, senator bernie sanders has been surging in the polls and drawing massive crowds all across the country. has hillary clinton's campaign shows signs of weakness,

sanders' appeal may not be comforting to some democratic officials. some believe that he's so liberal that topping the party's 2016 ticket would be disastrous. that leaves democrats in search of a big plan b. the party leaders sitting on the sidelines include joe biden, john kerry, elizabeth warren and al gore. democratic officials discussed all four as possible alternatives to hillary clinton in recent weeks and suggested that biden in particular could be laying the foundation for an entrance as last as this winter in case clinton's campaign breaks down. it comes as the vice president readies for another public event today set to appear new york governor at an event where cuomo will propose a $15 minimum wage

hike for all workers in new york city. >> people are trying to read the tea leaves. joe biden wasn't exactly energetic or exciting. he's been through a hell of a lot this past summer. nightmare no parent would want to go through. he's taking it slowly. you see that he's starting to pick up momentum and, willie, that event in pittsburgh, joe biden as many people suggested looked like a man who was getting ready to run for president. we don't know if he is or not. with all of the news breaking the way it is at the top of the democratic field, certainly you're going to hear more from joe biden, al gore i've been hearing talking to top donors. john kerry. we shall see. you never know what will happen when the front runner breaks down. you never know what will happen until lbj gets out of the race. >> she hasn't completely broken

down. she's up by 20 points. approval inside the democratic party is true. unfavorables are very low. she has a nice path to the nomination. you do look around and you see on monday joe biden in pittsburgh at that labor rally. >> great shape. >> he's in good shape. he looked like a different energy to him. he was pounding up on the stump and being joe biden. al gore, john kerry, a couple guys who have lost presidential elections. it's harder for me to see them getting in and being able to get the support that they would need to knock off hillary clinton. joe biden is in the background. >> as howard dean always says and others say, it's easier to continue running for president than stop running for president. if you're john kerry and you were called mr. president at 6:00 while eating chowder in boston like a couple of hours before the election results come

in, and you are sure you're going to be president of the united states, you never get over that. you never get over it. if you're al gore and get more votes than the other guy and everybody you know wherever you go tells you that it was stolen from you in 2000, you don't ever get over that. if you're joe biden and you believe it's god's will that you're president of the united states going back to 1988, it's something you know. you've been around these people. it stays in you. >> in joe biden's case my understanding is it's not his feeling that it's god's will but maybe his son's will. i can't imagine -- i can't fathom a more animating purpose than to sort of honor your son who was your best friend and love of your life's final wish. to me joe biden is in a different category. for someone like joe biden, it's flipping a switch. he's always what we just saw. he's always that. he's always a joyful public

servant. he's always someone who loves the game sitting here and talking to the press and defending his boss to the time spent with staff. he's always someone who is in that mode. i don't think someone like john kerry or al gore steps into candidate mode as seamlessly as someone like joe biden. >> just to mention before we move onto the rally about the iran deal, "the new york times" has been getting thousands of complaints about the coverage of bernie sanders. >> not doing enough? >> not doing enough. so public editor pushed back a little bit. there is a groundswell of support for bernie sanders that perhaps we ought to make sure we take note of more consistently. it is there. >> it's an e-mail we sent around friday saying we need more bernie sanders stories. bernie sanders is -- >> he and ben carson have two of the largest events with the least amount of coverage. >> i watched him sort of this hour by hour coverage being followed around by a camera on

c-span at iowa at the fair or something. >> i watched that, too. >> fascinating stuff. we have this bizarre thing going on, mike barnicle. a candidate leading the republican party that all of the wise guys say isn't going to win the nomination. we've got a guy that may be starting to lead in new hampshire and possibly in iowa that all of the wise guys are saying are never going to be the nominee. margaret sullivan can say whatever she wants to say. maybe it helps her sleep better at night but they're not giving the guy who is an insurgent on the democratic side 1/100th of the coverage they give donald trump or hillary clinton and we figured this out three or four days ago that we have to play more bernie sanders. we sent a memo out saying we need more bernie sanders stories. i don't know why "the new york times" public editor's head is in the stand. >> right up at the top it

mentions that he's a socialist who aligns himself with the caucus and democratic senate. he's not speaking to socialists. he's speaking to american citizens. they're nodding their heads. he has enormous crowds. he has enormous support. the demographic skew is very young which is what you're looking for to get people actively involved in politics. we ought to have him on here. >> wow. i'm looking at national polling numbers that just came in. cnn national poll, trump 32. carson, 19. jeb, 9. okay. >> there you go. people say why donald trump. well donald trump is the first one to jump and get above 30% in this poll. again, willie, it's funny. they keep saying trump's space is 20%.

he can never win nationally. then it's 25. and now he's over 30 in this poll. close to 40 in another poll. he's gained eight points since august. carson has gained 10 points since august. that's 1/5 of the republican party saying i was with establishment candidates. screw them. i'm going with these two other guys that never held office before. we always talk about my brother. my brother wrote me a text and gave me hell saying you're complaining that top three people that are in the republican poll have never had any experience. that's exactly why i'm for them. >> that's the whole point. that's the rationale for their candidacy is that i'm not these people you see before. i'm not the other people in this race. for people that want to say that donald trump is a summer fling or summer of trump, you can't ignore data that comes in day after day and also when you look in evangelical groups, specific voting blocks, he's winning

these blocks specifically as well as the big number. >> mike barnicle, in the same poll, 51% of respondents say donald trump is going to win the republican nomination. 19% say jeb bush is. this is no longer a summer fling. this is a four bell alarm. >> i would venture to make the assessment the republican party we're looking at right now is not the republican party that you belong to in the house of representatives. it's changed drastically. it includes a much more blue collar base. a growing blue collar base but, jeremy peters, you've been out there covering this campaign. what's your assessment of how the republican party has changed if it indeed has changed? >> i think we need to be careful not to overlook some very serious vulnerabilities that trump still has. i'm not predicting his candidacy

will collapse or anything like that but if you listen to the rally he spoke at to kill this iran deal yesterday there's a willing suspension of disbelief among a lot of the people who say they support trump. let's not forget, trump wouldn't tear up this deal. all of the people in that rally were cheering to have this deal torn up like ted cruz wants and marco rubio wants and most of the republicans want. it's almost like people who support trump look at him and they disregard a lot of it the baggage and beliefs that come along with him. >> jeremy, let's stay on the rally and listen to some of the voices that were there starting with trump. take a listen. >> never, ever, ever in my life have i seen any transaction so incompetently negotiated as our deal with iran. i mean never. all of these countries are going to do business with iran.

they're going to make lots of money and lots of other things with iran and we're going to do and we're going to get nothing. nothing. we are led by very, very stupid people. very, very stupid people. we cannot let it continue. it will change. we will have so much winning if i get elected that you may get bored with winning. believe me. i agree. you'll never get bored with winning. we never get bored. >> let's rise up and tell every elected official in washington no more talk. no more show votes. get it done. stop this deal. >> only in an obama world full of sprinkly fairy dust atop a

unicorn would he see victory for safety for america and israel. this treaty will not bring peace. you don't reward terrorism. you kill it. >> there's your candidate, sarah palin. what do you think? >> i think what she might have been trying to say is that it's a bad deal. i can't -- >> what about the whole rally? >> listen, the attention is on the personalities at the rally. you have a majority of the americans and congress who oppose the deal. that's legislative reality. and you have the secretary of state. maybe thinking about running for president and maybe this makes more sense asking reid to filibuster the deal. it took away from the serious nature of what's happening on the iran deal.

republicans are united. it's democrats that are divided in terms of shimmer and other senior respected democrats supporting those who oppose the deal. pink unicorns is more fun. >> you look at the pew polls out yesterday. this is not one of the situations where there's a rally outside and only 15% of the people support the position that they're espousing. you have a situation of people that 49% of americans oppose the deal and 70% of americans think the iranians are going to cheat and not going to live by the standards of the deal. and i will not blame the president of the united states for going to american university and claiming that you're a terrorist if you don't support his deal or that you're stupid, ignorant. i will say this is dangerous. going into a deal this important

with americans so opposed to that deal. >> and you know what doesn't help, quotes like ones you have in "the new york times" this morning from the supreme leader of iran who said about israel i'm telling you first you will not be around in 25 years time. god willing there will be no zionist regime in 25 years. people see and hear those things, that's the regime we're negotiating with. president obama has votes in the senate. it may not matter. that's the rhetoric americans are hearing and worry about. >> that's the rhetoric that israel has been hearing for years from iran. they've consistently told their people in the world that they were going to wipe israel off the face of the earth. at the same time they're developing a nuclear program. and for some reason those of us in the west, those of us in europe, those of us in america sit back and we're smug. they don't believe that. i've always said that it's so

absolute absolutely hypocritical if we withstood the threads from nations around us that israel withstands, we would have wiped them all out by now. mexico city would have had dairy queens on every corner and six flags over mexico city. if they threatened to wipe america off the face of the earth and been as hostile to us as iran has been to israel, the united states of america would be in there. i'm sorry. that's just who we are. we are. we don't put up with crap from other countries that threaten us. >> we should be in there? what are you saying? what are viable options? >> mexico city -- nobody from mexico has threatened to wipe us off the face of the earth. we sit here smugly saying, oh, what's israel worried about. how dare they come to the united

states and complain about a deal with a country that continues even as willie said yesterday to promise they would wipe israel off the face of the earth. at the same time the very country that is supposed to protect them is doing a deal as they see with the devil. >> i think one place where the white house has been misguided is calling everyone who opposes the deal somehow it's because of their support from jewish supporters. assuming that there's no policy or moral reason for seeing what you just described that you must merely be making a political characterization. it's insulting to schumer. >> it's the jewish lobby. >> there are no referees. >> it's always been the dog whistle from the left that if you -- if you're chuck schumer you can sincerely be concerned about the safety and future existence of israel. that's always been the dog

whistle. you're just listening to the jewish lobby. why don't you just say international bankers. why don't you guys just talk about international bankers and the protocols of zion. it's sick and repulsive and a smear and it continues and the president of the united states only makes it worse by saying that you have to be ignorant. or else in bed with iranian radicals if you oppose my deal and then you have thoughtful senators coming out saying this was a single hardest decision i ever made in my life. i heard that from so many democrats. cory booker. they all say this is the single hardest decision i ever made in my life. for some reason for left wingers in america and europe, this is the one issue where you're not allowed to be reasonable. reasonable people can differ. you're either against israel and for this deal or the jewish lobby has paid you off and

you're scared of these powerful jews lurking behind international banks. it's sickening. it's bigotry and it should be called out. who dare suggest that chuck schumer is doing this -- >> oh my god. that's the fourth time. we get the point. seriously. >> you're the last person on the face of the earth that appears to get the rally. >> go to the rally yesterday. reasonable people there making a lot of sense. it's not like the republican party has been reasonable every step of the way. >> i haven't said they were. >> they've been horrific. in fact they've been worse. a lot of people saying this is the hardest decision they've ever had to make. it's a very reasonable way of deciding whether to go for or against the deal. this deal is not easy. but you tell me what other viable options there are. >> the president said -- you're

missing my whole point. the president said this is the easiest decision anybody could make and if you go to the american university speech and he says that if you are not for this deal you're ignorant or in bed with the iranian hard liners. it's offensive. >> and i don't completely disagree with everything you just said. there's a bipartisan bill in the senate required an up or down vote and white house is now calling for a filibuster of the sort of gravest foreign policy debate we've seen since the surge. >> we do realize there are five other countries that approved this deal, right? >> that worked for months at this. >> we realize we're the indispensable power that dragged the other five there and ran the negotiations. >> we weakened the whole coalition by not letting our congress weigh in. we're going to filibuster it and not let congress weigh in. does that strengthen them or weaken them?

>> russia, china, great britain, france, they caved to us? >> i think if we go in there and let congress vote up or down. what white house and harry reid say they'll filibuster the deal and forbid a up and down vote. it becomes political in america. if you let an up or down vote happen in congress and at least the american people have spoken on the world stage. >> it only makes those numbers even worse. >> do we have foreign policy now by poll or let's vote on it? >> if you want to look at polls, majority oppose it. the white house doesn't want to do that. >> that's what i mean. a majority of people polled oppose it, we should say, okay, we're out of it? >> why have a congress, mike? people vote for their representatives. >> we have a guy in the white house who had this idea back in 2007 that he was going to deal with iran unilaterally if he were ever elected president no

matter how badly they acted and he's done this all on his own. some of us believe we have a democracy and that what people think matters and some believe that what congress thinks matters. you have overwhelming majority of americans against this. >> majority of congress. >> majority of congress against this. >> let's scrap it. that sounds smart. let's scrap it because ted cruz hates it and glenn beck and sarah palin. >> chuck schumer and a lot of other people. are you turning into a cartoon character before our very eyes? >> chuck schumer did what he had to do. >> there's the cynicism i talked about. chuck schumer could never, ever believe in his heart according to you that actually israel faces a threat from iran and this only makes it worse. >> chuck schumer is not holding rallies begging everyone to go with him. >> why did chuck schumer have to do what he had to do because

he's a jew and there are a lot of jews in new york? why can't you say that chuck schumer did what he believed was right? >> i believe that. i think she does. >> she didn't say that. chuck schumer did what he had to do. >> i think he did what he believes is right. >> i can live with that. >> since we blew through this news to hear why the republicans at the rally had such a good point, good for you, i get it. i understand that you have your point of view. >> i'm not that stupid. you can't twist things around. i'll stick with chuck schumer and a lot of foreign policy people who say this idea was bad from the start. >> i'm just glad it's going through. i'm not sure what your options are. still ahead on "morning joe," martin o'hmalley will be here o set and haley barbour joins the conversation. we'll get his reaction to learning that his name was a vp

contender in hillary clinton's recently released e-mails and up next, one of the few places that donald trump is not leading the republican field. why online bet makers be putting their money behind someone else. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. i shouldn't have said that about your hair. it's not stupid. (ding) find hair salon. wow. yeah, that's right. (siri voice) ok, jack's boutique is nearby. alright, i've got another friend and his name is bryan adams. ok. this isn't going to work again. ♪"please forgive me, i know not what i do..."♪ introducing app-connect. the things you love on your phone, available on 11 volkswagen models. behold, these are two can you spot the difference? the wind farm on the right was created using digital models and real world location-based specs that taught it how to follow the wind.

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26 past the hour. welcome back to "morning joe." joining us now, former treasury official and economic analyst steve rattner. >> you said you wanted to be here during the iran talks. >> i would have loved to have been here during the iran talks. >> you're here now. what do you got? >> no. we'll talk about iran in just a moment. somebody has been talking too much. >> mika. mika, mika. i like the fact that you're self-aware but you don't have to put yourself down on tv. the polls all point to one republican front runner but online betting markets predict someone else will walk away with the nomination. steve rattner is here with some

charts. a couple days ago joey came up to me and said it's funny. since hillary clinton's e-mail scandal exploded and it's all the press has covered, odds to being elected president have gone up on the online betting services because of the clown show on the republican side. >> we'll get to that and show you the numbers and everyone can have their opinion. let's start with republicans. obviously there's a food fight going on there. as you implied in your tease, it's quite a different picture than what the polls show. so jeb bush has been the front runner. he's the red line on top. he's been the front runner since the beginning. you can see that he peaked here right around the time of the first gop debate. and then after that debate he started to edge down. 36% probability that he'll be the republican nominee. now donald trump back in june was effectively at zero. he's up to 15%.

he's in second place but well behind jeb bush in terms of probability. and then right next to him is marco rubio who again if you look at the history was doing pretty well. kind of fell off a cliff back in the summer and then was rescued a bit by the debate and climbed back up to the 14% range where he sits at the moment. and then as we have talked about on the show about scott walker and he's really been in a steady decline and then a more precipitous decline since the debate down to 8% and at the bottom is ben carson at 5%. so people are not taking the ben carson candidacy very seriously. >> greatest surge of all of the candidates. >> great surge in the polls. there are a lot of questions about whether he knows anything about policy and has any experience and so on. so let's turn to the democratic side and hillary clinton and then i'll get to joey's point at the end. clinton has been steadily at the top of the pack.

this goes back to july. >> it's the belmont 1973. >> she may not be doing well in new hampshire polls. she may be having problems in iowa polls but people putting their money down give her a 70% chance. she was up at 86% at her peak. it's been coming down slightly. still really high. >> she's still the secretary of state. >> and then you have saunders and biden at roughly 14%, 13%. biden is not in the race yet and most of his support comes from clinton and not from saunders who is gliding around at 13%. if you look at the general election and what's going to happen, you can see that while we don't know yet who either of the nominees are, the online polls have been very steadily since the beginning giving the democrats a 57% chance. it was actually hire at the time

of the first gop debate. it was higher back here. you can argue this drift down does reflect some of hillary's issues but nonetheless and i think your son may be right but we can leave that for the table, the republicans perhaps because of all their shenanigans are down at 43% in terms of the probability of winning the general election. so that is my report for today. >> i have to say, every saturday and sunday during football season i'm amazed how close las vegas gets to the scores. it's incredible. do you put a lot of stock in these numbers as a numbers person? >> these numbers have been right historically. they picked the last three presidents and picked 33 out of 34 senate races. >> they get vp picks right more often than not. >> they have an extraordinary record. i certainly put stock on the republican side in the nomination. i'm not saying jeb bush will be

the nominee but the idea that trump is running away with this or ben carson is running away with this is unimaginable. >> what does it say to the republican party in these polls are accurate? what message should it be sending that there's a 14-point spread between democrats and republicans. >> well, i think that the candidates who are aiming fire at hillary clinton -- i went to a briefing yesterday for the bush campaign and all of their energy is on contrasting republicans and jeb bush with hillary clinton. they see one of the ripest areas on trustworthiness and transparency. >> why is he getting into this fight? i started to hear people saying i see back and forth on instagram between trump and bush and i don't like either of them. >> i wondered what i was missing by not being on instagram. >> jeb is getting down in the mud. shouldn't he focus on hillary? >> maybe that's sort of the mini atmosphere of the campaign trail.

you're surrounded by reporters saying you just insulted your spanish speaking wife, do you want to comment? of course you do. you're human. they're not ignoring donald trump. they can't. i called my dad yesterday in the trump club with your brother and i said do you still like him? he said i love him. i said what about his fight with bill o'reilly. he said i'm rooting for him. what about him calling carly fiorina -- i don't like it but i like what he's selling. trump has the ability to completely alter how these guys run even if he isn't the nominee, he will have changed bush hopefully for the better for a general election. >> and the party. steve, stay with us. thank you very much for that. still ahead, thinkers and doers and visionaries transforming american politics. we'll look at the second annual political 50 and why someone who is not a politician is topping the list. "morning joe" is back in a moment. the new consultants are here.

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>> still ahead, don't be mad. >> you need to stop talking about the iran deal and mocking what happened in washington d.c. >> you are polling at 0% so what's in it for long-shot candidates. a special series on what's driving the underdogs. we'll break that down next on "morning joe."

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pick a size. change it up anytime. it's the simple way to get the best network. and now, get $300 when you switch. only at verizon. >> no one is less popular than democratic hopeful and former rhode island governor lincoln chafy who is currently at 0% in voting polls. i'm not making this up. that's an actual headline. that's why i'm just taking a short amount of time and making it my mission tonight to help lincoln chafee get from zero percent to 1% in the polls. >> conan o'brien last month trying to help lincoln chafee go up in the polls. joining us from washington,

david covers congress for "the washington post" writing a special series on what's driving the long-shot candidates in 2016. also with us at the table, anchor for the blaze tv, amy holmes. david, i'll start with you. this is a fascinating conversation. we've had people on the show and tried to politely ask them what's keeping them in this race. what's the answer? >> a lot of people had theories about what the race would be like that have been erased by donald trump. i think pataki, gilmore, thought it would be a wide open race where there experience might crack through. someone like lindsey graham thought it would be an argument with rand paul about foreign policy and now he's having an argument with donald trump about foreign policy who just pranks him and hands his phone number out. >> it's not a battle between whether you get behind shia and

sun sunni in the middle east. he has to argue with a guy whose plan is to invade syria and steal oil out from under him. >> it's not free to fly around the country. even they don't have huge campaigns to go out on the trail every day. is it about building up their name for other reasons or what keeps them in it after a certain point? >> someone like gilmore or pataki there isn't a plan for the next step. they don't have a book to sell or a big role in general policy debate to raise. and then people like perry, he's run out of money. he's almost out of staff. people like that that don't sort of have a secondary goal. no plan b or issue to advance. you may see them after the next debate if a miracle doesn't happen, they may think about getting out. >> what about rick santorum. a guy we like around this table. he won iowa. 11 states four years ago but he's now polling at zero as well. >> that's right. his strategy this summer was to

visit all 99 counties in iowa. he did that last time. had an idea that's the reason he caught on fire last time. i traveled around iowa with him and he spoke to crowds as small as zero, one, four. i think his theory of how this race would be won was not true. he thought it would be iowa and it's probably not this year. >> really fascinating series in "the washington post" looks and minds and psyche of what drives these guys. thanks for being here this morning. >> this is also a business plan, steve rattner, that we were talking about before. it's a business plan for those that had gone out before. go ahead and run. you get your name out there. you get into the middle of the debate and make more money giving speeches and book deals after you run for president. >> look at newt gingrich who is on television every sunday and on a lot of other shows and there aren't that many speakers of foreign majority leaders who can carry on a career like that. it's been good for his brand, too. >> amy, you say you have a plan b for democrats. what is that plan b.?

>> i was looking at "the new york times," al gore and elizabeth warren, what about leon panetta. he's very well liked. former secretary of defense. served in congress. bill clinton's chief of staff. maybe he could swoop to the rescue. >> a tough guy. >> i think he's happy on his farm in california. he's also 73. something like that. >> he does have bipartisan respect and bipartisan support. >> most of these democrats we're talking about are between 69 and 73. >> that's true. >> democratic bench at this moment is obviously pretty weak when you look around. they don't control very many gove governorships and there aren't a lot of names for the next generation. democrats have a lot of work to do. >> i'm tossing leon panetta out there. >> joining us now, mike allen here to unveil politico's second annual 50. the thinkers, doers and visionaries transforming

american politics. >> mike, tell us who is topping the list. >> in a year that so much of politics has been a clown show, this year instead of looking at the most powerful people or the most colorful people in politics, the politico 50 looks at the people who have the best ideas and saying the smartest things and have an actual vision for the future. it's in print magazine and just went up on politico.com. >> so candidate number one. >> we call him history swing vote. this is a reminder of how far back some of these movements go. civil rights exploded this year now taking in sexual orientation and gender identity. anthony kennedy has been writing majority opinions for gay rights going back to 1996, almost 20 years ago. >> number four, pope francis.

>> this is the papacy whose ideas about income and inequality and new ways of talking about homosexual rates, abortion, divorce, has brought so many people in listening to the catholic church at a time when they've been tuned out before. >> bernie sanders at five. john kerry at seven. mark holden, who is he? >> the coke companies has led the conversation about criminal justice reform. we were talking about it here on the show yesterday. and another big that we're seeing throughout this list, politico magazine editor writes in his letter about this is the year that so many ordinary people changed the conversation. at number three we have the three women who started black lives matter.

started back in 2013 but became such a part of the conversation this year part of that civil rights conversation and up at hashtag politico 50, we have a graphic that shows hashtag black lives matter and how it trended over the years. at the other end of the spectrum, number 37, the two women who started the idea of having a woman on the $20 bill. we're calling it breaking the paper ceiling. >> i'm looking at number 11. elizabeth warren leading from the sidelines. >> both elizabeth warren and paul ryan are mentioned in here for people who decided not to run, probably would have had very promising candidacies but instead wanted to talk about ideas of the future of drive debate and doing it by not running. >> all right. mike allen, thank you so much. we greatly appreciate it. amy, great plan. >> leon panetta. >> coming up, so much for

relaxing off-season. new england patriots will be back on the field tonight after a bruising summer in the public eye. we'll go live to foxborough for what it means for the defending champs and the league's bottom line next on "morning joe." ♪ every auto insurance policy has a number. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. those who have served our nation. have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. when your windshield needs for these parents, driving. around was the only way... ...to get their baby to sleep. so when their windshield got cracked, we can't drive this car they wanted it fixed right... ...so they scheduled with safelite. our exclusive trueseal technololgy means a strong...

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welcome to the moment no one's been waiting for. the fastest internet and the best tv experience is already here with x1. only from xfinity. >> prior to the start of training camp, i spoke on behalf of the team and addressed the

organization's position regarding in my opinion the most overblown story in recent nfl history. >> this 2015 team will write its own book and have our own chapter and story. it's not about what some other team did or didn't do or did or didn't happen in the past. >> what did you do that was cool? jumping off cliffs? >> it's been such an enjoyable off-season. >> tom brady talking about the turbulent off-season. the reigning super bowl champions new england patriots kick off the nfl season tonight against the pittsburgh steelers on nbc with tom brady under center. joining us from outside gillette stadium in foxborough, massachusetts, eric, good to have you with us this morning. so much in the atmosphere between deflategate and this new piece out of espn that digs deeper into the spygate scandal. what's the vibe going to be like in that stadium tonight?

>> reporter: good morning. we're right here on the field at gillette stadium. the vibe is going to be about football today once we get started. it's already hot and humid. it feels like the start of football season. a lot of tv crews already. if you look at this like a business and not a sport, deflategate scandal seemed to be overblown but as we saw from the espn piece it was because spygate scandal was underblown. if you look at the business of nfl, specifically even the patriots, ticket prices jumped up huge right after brady's suspension was lifted. immediately after you can see the ticket prices jump up and then it settled right back in. all of these sellers are trying to flood the market to get rid of tickets before today's game. it comes back to normal when you look at it from the last couple weeks. looking at prices overall, up 3% versus last year. patriots are one of the top five teams in terms of how much you spend. the economy for the nfl is there. the overall valuation of the league if you add up all 32 teams, it's $46 billion.

that's up 23% from last year. so it doesn't really matter about deflategate. they are minting money. it's not because of attendance or anything else, all that matters is tv ratings. >> what does this do to tom brady's brand? obviously it strengthened him among patriot fans. do you think this hurt his ability to go out and earn money? obviously he's doing okay. does he take a ding from all of this? >> reporter: you might say it gives him a ding but if you look at merchandise sales for example, some data we got overnight, he's been selling jerseys at a record pace in the last couple weeks in all 50 states. you might say his brand is hurting but if you actually look at transactional data, people buy his stuff up in droves. they buy a lot of it in the last couple weeks. >> all right. the site of the big game as they open the nfl season. catch the start tonight on nbc, pittsburgh steelers take on new england patriots in foxborough. we're talking about the espn piece.

to me that was far more damning than anything i read in defla deflategate scandal talking about 40 games and one game against the jets. 40 games spying. guys in the locker room from the patriots stealing information from opposing teams. >> the general counsel of the national football league going to foxborough to preside over the destruction of those tapes. first of all, i we will tell you it's a great piece but patriots, belichick, they will use this during the season, us against them. >> coming up at the top of the hour, we are awaiting a new quinnipiac poll out of iowa expected to be released in just a matter of moments. what the number could mean for hillary clinton and her campaign and another poll that shows donald trump hitting a major milestone. plus, ted cruz invites donald trump to a valley against the iran nuclear deal. also still ahead, former governor and democratic presidential candidate martin o'malley and former governor healy barbour both join us.

keep it right here on "morning joe." just might be the one.

to clean the oceans, to start a movement, or lead a country. it may not be obvious yet, but one of these kids is going to change the world. we just need to make sure she has what she needs. welcome to windows 10. the future starts now for all of us.

>> welcome back to "morning joe." wow. this is pretty exciting. >> look who just jumped on the set. seriously. you're very athletic. that was amazing. all of a sudden chuck wasn't here and then chuck is here. >> green screen. >> chuck todd. editor in chief of buzzfeed ben

smith. >> we don't do that as somehow we have to let people know that we do that just to let bosses know why aren't you investing in us. no comment. >> jeremy is with us from washington. >> i hope you have some of that money. >> we're being compensated -- >> not real cash. >> we have a lot to tell you. new polls out just moments ago. donald trump is the first candidate to cross 30% in the new cnn/orc poll. trump gained eight points since august. >> chuck and i laughing at these numbers. what ceiling? there's no ceiling. >> ben carson surged to 19 points. together the political outsiders hold an outright majority of the republican vote. >> jeb bush at 9. ted cruz at 7.

mike huckabee at 5 and scott walker at 5 and the media's darling marco rubio at 3%. he lost five points since last month. and somehow that's going to be spun that that actually is great for marco. i'm not really sure how. >> take a look at immigration. more than half of republicans call it an extremely important issue. in june, 39% did. for a look at why republicans are choosing outsiders, here's what the poll says. 75% are motivated by their views on the issues. just 16% say it's their on the job experience and 7% say it's because they dislike other candidates. and republicans do nothing for donald trump. 51% now say he's likely to be the party's nominee. >> there's always been an asterisk next to the numbers. always. he can't win in a general election. and then polls come out and show

that he's beating hillary clinton in three of the most important swing states. overwhelming majority of republicans don't think he'll win the nomination. >> america is trolling us. that's what's going on. >> he makes it up as he goes along and american people are making it up as they go along. >> we should keep the asterisks. the polls are nonsense. he does not have views on the issue. he's all over the map on the issues. that's not a true statement coming out of those polls. >> what do you mean he doesn't have views on the issues? >> he has views but often on both sides of key issues like the iran deal. >> he's not an outright ideologue. one of the things that makes it fascinating is the fact that he's actually got paul krugman and mika's favorite elizabeth warren agreeing with him. >> i don't get the jeb bush attack line. i understand jeb going after trump but not on this idea that he's not a real conservative or real republican. you go to the panhandle of

florida 25 years ago everybody down there was what? a democrat. it's not offensive to a good chunk of the republican party if donald trump used to be a democrat. if donald trump used to have -- there are former democrats that are republicans. >> everyone says the only reason democrats in the south became republicans is because they are all racist. if that helps you go to sleep at night, that's fine. you can think that. the fact is there are a lot of people that are southern populists and have remained southern populists and even with race off the table are more comfortable with populist viewpoints especially on economics. i said this before -- >> they want attacks. >> they will attack rattner. >> the race is off the trouble for trump though. trump has been stoking the racial -- >> we have more on trump and carson. i have to disrupt the flow. we have new polls out just this moment. they show for the first time

hillary clinton has lost the lead in iowa. senator bernie sanders of vermont is running ahead of clinton with likely democratic caucus participants 41% to 40%. clinton is down 12 points from where she stood in july. sanders has risen eight points. vice president joe biden takes 12% up slightly from his standing earlier this summer. >> let's keep this up. chuck todd, hillary clinton in the last poll we showed had lost 11 points, 12 points since august. here as she lost 12 points among democrats since june. >> this has been in every poll. they may dispute we don't think bernie is at 41. the trend line is the same. she's losing support all over. >> she's in the low 40s in all of these latest polls that have come out. >> it's the same problem as eight years ago because i remember having the same conversation which is democrats

are not in love with her. they like her. they'll be fine if she's the nominee. >> they'll defend her. >> there isn't this love affair. bernie people love bernie. you go to a bernie rally or go on your twitter feed when you don't talk about bernie sanders enough, you're covering it up. >> that's the same flip because it was your poll, that's 19, 20-point flip in iowa. in new hampshire, 19-point flip in bernie sanders favor. it's happening in the first two states. >> imagine if elizabeth warren was on that line. >> my god. >> or joe biden. >> i think she would be the front runner for the nomination. >> i'm not 100% convinced that she would have the same campaign appeal. i think the idea of here. >> you don't think she would have massive crowds? >> i don't think -- i think sanders is a more comfortable campaigner. and sanders will talk to anyone in the press. elizabeth warren is guarded.

he knows who he is and he loves being bernie sanders and all this stuff. it's okay. elizabeth warren is very -- a stiffness to her. bernie sanders will yell at you. >> he knows who he is. he doesn't -- you find -- whatever. he just is very comfortable. she's just -- i've never been convinced that -- i think the idea of elizabeth warren would have been popular. never convinced her as a candidate. there's a difference between being a good candidate on the stump. >> there were at times and i'm sure we remember this during the massachusetts campaign where she was stiff and awkward and ran into cars and ran away from the media. i think she's been in the public spotlight enough that i actually agree with you and mika if elizabeth warren is out. i still think if everything blows up, it won't be al gore and it won't be john kerry. i think elizabeth warren comes

in the bobby kennedy slot and i think that elizabeth warren is the person that can go out. if she were out, she would win. listen, this goes again to what donald trump is saying, elizabeth warren came out the other day and said i agree with donald trump on taxing the richest of the rich. i think this is her time. >> it's totally -- i just -- >> i agree with you on paper. i just never have been -- i don't know -- that's all. there's a difference. >> as a campaigner, mika, she was at times stiff and awkward in the massachusetts race running away from the press when like you said bernie would have just stood there. >> bernie has been runs for office for 25 years. he's comfortable. that's all i'm saying. i hear you on paper. i get it on paper. i want to see it in practice.

>> none of these guys have shown appeal beyond northern liberal white people which isn't how you get the democratic nomination that much. it is iowa and new hampshire. >> they could win the caucus. so i do think elizabeth warren to be -- >> what's the thread between those two to a different extent donald trump? is it that they're real and authentic and speak their mind and throw arms open and answer as many questions as you want me to answer opposed to the old guarded let's build a fortress around the candidate and answer things the way we want to answer them and not be totally forthcoming. people love watching people speak their minds and say what they believe and represent who they truly are and that's bernie sanders and elizabeth warren. >> let's talk about the importance of bernie with this sort of style. leading in new hampshire. 19 points swing? >> in the nbc poll. >> and now leading in iowa which

was supposed to be hillary's sort of firewall. she'll be great in iowa because she's well organized in iowa, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera and there's been an 18, 19-point swing over the past month or two in iowa. you start going down the list and if hillary loses iowa and hillary loses new hampshire, nobody has ever won the nomination without winning one of those two. >> there's never a good day to have poll numbers but this is a bad day to have bad poll numbers. joe biden is going to hang out with andrew cuomo who is going to poke at the former junior senator from new york and then, you know, colbert has his easy opening question. why isn't hillary clinton appealing. >> i think chuck is raising the point of who is excited about hillary clinton and who is in love with hillary clinton?

it's not clear yet. i think their theory of the case is women in their 20s and 30s. >> that's the new strategy to get women excited about her. i have to say i don't know why that hasn't happened yet. >> with hillary? >> jeremy peters, any thoughts? >> to that point of questions of economic populism and minimum wage is where the biggest threat to hillary's candidacy is right now. you see sanders and biden surge who resonate more with voters on that question ultimately of which candidate cares about a person like me. what i've been hearing from republicans is that as hillary's trustworthiness takes a hit in poll after poll, one of the things that she's really suffering on is that question. for democrats, that's the key to the election right there. that's how they plan to beat republicans because for so long republicans have lost on that question. and if hillary can't be trusted by voters on whether or not she cares about them, that is a huge

problem. >> it is a huge problem. the number one thing you want when you go into campaigns is contrast. you want to be able to have a great contrast between your opponent. on the most important issue, which for democrats certainly is income disparity and the rich getting rich or poor getting poor, look at bernie sanders or elizabeth warren. >> they live it. they live the message. >> they live the message versus hillary clinton. and suddenly biography does matter. she's hung out with the richest, most powerful people in the world for the past 20 years. >> and is an expert on political messaging. >> made up to $200 million since they got out of the white house. and even said -- even though they are worth 100 million at least, 150, who knows, actually said recently we're not really that rich. talking about leaving the white house poor. it seems to me that this is a

contrast. if this is the issue of the year, i think that spells problems, too, for hillary, up against bernie. >> bernie has governed this ideology as mayor of burlington. he governed his ideology. >> we want to bring in paul from rolli "rolling stone." what did you find about comments that donald trump made about carly fiorina? paul, can you hear me. >> i can hear you now. hi, mika. >> wondering about your cover story looking at the comments that donald trump made about carly fiorina. tell us a little bit about the background on that. >> it's at the very end of the story.

i got back on a plane with donald and his entourage. we were returning from his stop at a record breaking crowd in hampton, new hampshire. donald had a large meal onboard and sat back, threw his tie over the shoulder and was watching fox's coverage of the speech he had just given and i think they first cut to scott walker who the moderator praised for being slow and steady and donald trump laughed and said, well, he's slow all right. that's what we've got already in washington. slow. and a couple seconds later, a minute or so later they cut away to carly fiorina and the camera

pans in tight on carly and donald screws his face up in what i characterize as school boy disgust and says look at that face. can you imagine anyone voting for that face? is this really going to be the face of the next president of the united states. >> wow. this is what carly had to say in reaction. >> well, i think those comments speak for themselves. all of the many, many thousands of voters out there that are helping me climb in the polls, yes, they are very serious. maybe, just maybe, i'm getting under his skin a little bit because i am climbing in the polls. >> paul, you know, the headline of that was taking trump seriously, which not exactly -- >> doesn't help the case. >> again, you look at these poll numbers and again this is the thing, willie, where he says

things like that and you talk to his supporters and i don't like that he did that but they still support him. >> for all of the good things that he does as a candidate for as skilled as he is, it's him at his worse when he says that about carly fiorina or meghan kelly who are whoever it is. what did you learn about donald trump beyond what we have known already? >> someone needs to start giving donald trump credit for being who he is. that's someone with two superpowers. that's to say that like all great developers, he sees a market forming before anybody else does. but the audience isn't something i expected of him. he's able to hear things in the hearts of people that nobody else in the republican party has heard for many, many years.

that is this enormous dissatisfaction with the party's elites and the feeling of having been completely co-oped by the karl roves and jeb bushes and having been used for their disaffection for the process and then being ignored by policy and certainly by the way tax cuts have almost entirely favored the rich at their expense. trump has brilliantly peeled them off and i think maybe permanently from the republican elite and stashed them in a place they're not going to be found again very easily. >> paul, thank you. we'll read your piece in

"rolling stone" magazine which hits newsstands on friday. >> i like the headline taking trump seriously which is not a headline you would expect from "rolling stone." he has some great insights there that he has fixed himself to a message. by the way, it's a message he's been saying -- we say it all the time. since 1988. you can go back and see him being interviewed and he's saying the same thing in 1988. >> i found a full page ad in 1987, a newspaper ad, where he's railing against japan is killing us. japan, they're winning. we're losing. our leaders in washington -- >> these arguments have lost republican primaries for the last 30 years. there's always been a candidate in primaries saying this and they've always lost. >> president obama's nuclear deal with iran may have the votes to withstand a congressional vote of disapproval but its opponents are as fired up as ever. yesterday donald trump joined senator ted cruz on the lawn of

the u.s. capitol for a rally with many others. >> all of these countries are going to do business with iran. they're going to make lots of money and lots of other things with iran and we're going to do and we're going to get nothing. nothing. we are led by very, very stupid people. very, very stupid people. we cannot let it continue. it will change. we will have so much winning if i get elected that you may get bored with winning. believe me, i agree. you'll never get bored with winning. we never get bored. >> let's rise up and tell every elected official in waington, no more talk. no more show votes. get it done. stop this deal. >> only in an obama world full

of sprinkly fairy dust blown from atop his unicorn as he peeks through a pink kaleidoscope would he see victory or safety for america or israel in this treaty. this treaty will not bring peace. you don't reward terrorism. you kill it. >> all right, chuck todd. heck of a rally. >> oh my god. >> heck of a rally. >> the iran deal has serious questions and people with serious doubts about it. is there any way despite what we've seen the support in the senate that this deal doesn't go through? >> yesterday was weird. you had all of these rallies with hillary clinton doing her speech on iran that to me felt like it was designed to reassure jewish democrats. i'm going to be tough. i'm going to be tough. it felt like it was written for that constituency group and a rally yesterday which by the

way, the deal is done. he already won. house republicans are desperate to find a new way of stopping it so they think if we haven't seen the side deals, maybe the clock didn't start. maybe we could say that the president never actually brought the deal over so then he can't -- they are even thinking about a lawsuit. >> in the senate harry reid and president obama are talking about filibustering. >> they already have the votes for filibuster. there was rumor yesterday that corker was like if we can't win this deal, forget it. just pull it. a bunch of conservative senators, who knows if he was serious about doing that but some conservative senators were -- they'll end up doing a vote because there are republicans that want to be on the record. the point is watching them try to figure out one last gasp to stop this iran deal is a reminder that next six weeks will be chaos on capitol hill.

>> we've been hearing that john boehner is in -- >> think about this perfect storm. you have a republican party that hates the elites. and you have a republican party now that even the elite candidates are trying to say they hate elites. scott walker attacked boehner and mcconnell. let me play out the scenario for you. defund planned parenthood, do you think it will happen? >> no. >> there will be ticked off conservatives. even if it's mitch mcconnell's fault. the worst thing to happen to boehner was mitch mcconnell getting control of the senate. i did what i could. look at harry reid over there. what is he going to do, blame mitch mcconnell? some in the conservative base will, guess what? even though they may blame mitch mcconnell there's only one person they can punish. they could do a motion to vacate. the point is it's not out of the realm of possibility there's a new speaker of the house by the end of the year if all of this

goes haywire. if nothing happens to please the conservative base. >> i'm still -- i'm not sure what we just saw out there in washington yesterday. i hope they enjoyed themselves. chuck todd, ben smith, jeremy peters, thank you very much. still ahead on "morning joe," former mississippi governor haley barbour is standing by and we'll ask martin o'malley why he's had no change in support in the polls as hillary clinton and bernie sanders experience double digit swings in iowa. we'll talk about his strategy. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. when your windshield needs fixed, trust safelite. for these parents, driving around was the only way... ...to get their baby to sleep. so when their windshield got cracked, we can't drive this car they wanted it fixed right... ...so they scheduled with safelite. our exclusive trueseal technololgy means a strong... ...reliable bond, every time. at safelite we stand behind our work... night, night little buddy.

...because the ones you love, sit behind it. that's another safelite advantage. (softly) ♪safelite repair, safelite replace♪ (ding) (clicking noise) read text. (siri voice) adam, i'm sorry. i shouldn't have said that about your hair. it's not stupid. (ding) find hair salon. wow. yeah, that's right. (siri voice) ok, jack's boutique is nearby. alright, i've got another friend and his name is bryan adams. ok. this isn't going to work again. ♪"please forgive me, i know not what i do..."♪

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25 past the hour. what many call a victory for democratic challengers, two top officials have publicly called for changes to the debate process. in a joint statement, hawaii congresswoman and minneapolis mayor both dnc vice chairs call for "several more debates than six currently scheduled." presidential candidate and

former presidential candidate martin o'malley joins us on set. this is something you have been talking about that if you are trying to emerge as a candidate but you can't get on stage enough times to put your views out there. >> more importantly it's bad for the country and political malpractice for our party. it's not what the republican candidates are doing for us, it's what we're not doing for ourselves. we need to have debates. i'm so glad those vice chairs of the democratic party have stood up and spoken out. it would be unprecedented for us to tell iowa you can only have one debate before the caucuses or new hampshire you can only have one debate and by the way, it has to be on a saturday at the peak of shopping season so no one can watch it. >> do you believe the process has been rigged? >> i do. >> by party leaders by hillary clinton. >> i'm told that this is the prerogative of the chair. there's always an inclination i think for old relationships to kind of circle the wagons and

protect one another. >> tell our viewers who the chair is. >> the chair is debbie wasserman-schultz. so the fact that the two vice chairs have come out speaks volumes to it and this race is wide open. your latest polling today that you were showing, i mean, it shows that the inevitable front runner is not so inevitable. what i know from having been on the ground in iowa more than any of the other candidates in my party is that people are actually looking for a new leader. right now they are expressing their repudiation of the corn a cornated leader saying that as time progresses, we are picking up every single day. i've been to 37 counties. we've gone from 1% in the polls to 3%. 7% a couple weeks ago. and that's what iowa is about. it's about one room at a time. one diner at a time. and that's the campaign that we're running. i'm very, very encouraged. >> what's the issue that sets you apart from the other

candidates that takes you from 3% to 7% to 17% to victory? >> there's really two of them. one is that i answered that yearning that we have as americans for new leadership. we can't be dissatisfied with our economy and politics and think old leaders will fix what's wrong with our country. what people want to see a leader getting done is make the economy work again for all of us. the majority of he weus of earn the same or less as we were three years ago. so whether it's affordable college or raising the minimum wage, i saw one of your clips earlier, all my life i have accomplished progressive things. not made progressive promises. first state to pass a living wage. raising the minimum wage. defending the highest median income of any state in the nation. by the way, along the way, passing things like marriage equality, dream act, forging a

new consensus to get things done and that's what the people of our country are looking for right now. >> governor to be respectful but ask the hard question. the polls like we just put up seem to show that the democrats are looking more toward bernie sanders and more toward joe biden as their alternatives if hillary clinton were to falter. why isn't it you? why don't these polls show you as second or third choice of the democrats? >> i've been in this 90 days. many of us will remember the name alan cranston. all of the rage in 1993. the key thing in your question, i might add the word yet, why don't they see me yet, and that's because we have a long way to go in this process. after labor day people get kids back to school and they're only now focusing on this race. we were endorsed last week by a dozen or more county chairs in iowa. the iowa caucuses are difficult

things for people in new york and washington to be able to poll on. what i see happening is more and more people coming to our events and more people signing commit to caucus for o'malley cards and it's how we can come together as a country to make our economy work for all of us. that's what i keep hammering home with a record of progressive accomplishments that none of the other candidates can claim. joe, to your point, i'm the only candidate in this race with 15 years of executive experience and not senatorial experience but executive experience and getting these things done. >> governor, hillary clinton has been on a media tour apologizing for her use of a private e-mail server. what are your big concerns about the way she handled her e-mail as secretary of state? >> i think we should all expect that our leaders would follow the law and would follow the rules. and that's the biggest concern that i think people express as i

go living room to living room through new hampshire and through iowa. and i think that's why she's finally come around to apologizing for it. i wish she had done that a couple months ago. and we were having debates to move onto other issues like affordable college. >> she thinks she followed the rules. >> she and her lawyers can answer those questions better than i can. that's up to her. my job is to put forward a candidacy of ideas leading with ideas and proposals like debt-free college, education reform, reducing gun violence, making our economy work for all of us and i'm the first candidate to come out with a proposal for a 100% clean electric grid by 2050. these are things that are exciting people on campuses. these are the things exciting people throughout iowa. >> all right. martin o'malley, thank you very much. good to have you on "morning joe." good luck to you. see you on the campaign trail we

hope. ben carson is surging in the polls and now taking serious shots at donald trump. plus, we'll be joined by former governor haley barbour. we'll be right back. two streetlights. the only difference: that little blue thingy. you see it? that's a sensor. using ge software, the light can react to its environment- getting brighter only when it's needed. in a night, it saves a little energy. but, in a year it saves a lot. and the other street? it's been burning energy all night. for frank. frank's a cat. now, two things that are exactly the same, have never been more different. ge software. get connected. get insights. get optimized. still not sure whether to stay or go on that business trip? ♪ should i stay or should i go well this fall stay with choice hotels two times and earn a free night. when it comes to business, you always have a choice. book now at the new choicehotels.com

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>> probably the biggest thing is that i realize where my success has come from. and i don't in any way deny my

faith in god. i think that's probably a big difference. i haven't heard it. i haven't seen it. you know, one of my favorite bible verses, proverbs, 22:4. it says by humility and fear of the lord. i don't get that impression with him. maybe i'm wrong. i don't get that impression. >> you mentioned a lack of humility. do you think he's a conservative? >> we have to take him at his word. he says that he's changed his mind on a lot of things. so assuming he has changed his mind on a lot of things, he

would be a conservative. that's your job. the press are supposed to go out and figure this out. figure out whether he's a conservative. >> that was dr. ben carson speaking last night after he gave that news conference, he spoke to a crowd of thousands in anaheim, california. joining us now from capitol hill, former rnc chairman and former governor of mississippi haley barbour. did you see that crowd? >> a great time to have you. i can explain this trump thing. i really can. i am at a complete loss to explain ben carson. i mean, i just don't know where this is coming from. >> i don't either. >> ben carson is about as impressive as anybody you've ever met. what a story of his life, of his achievements. risen to the very height of his profession as a pediatric

neurosurgeon which is not exactly an easy profession to rise to the top of. he comes across as an honorable person in this for all of the right reasons. >> look at this crowd. he's like a rock star. i can't tell you -- i do this every day. i read papers nonstop. what's his position? why are those people there? what is his position on isis? what's his position on -- you name a list of things. i'm not knocking ben carson. he seems like a wonderful guy. i went to church with a lot of wonderful people. i would never vote for them for president of the united states or go to one of their rallies. >> you go back stepping away from ben carson. the public is incredibly dissatisfied with the government and the government has had poor performance. it's interesting to me to see a democratic candidate for

governor martin o'malley on your show talking about how people make less today than they made when barack obama became president and how bad things -- 65% or so of the american people think our country is going in the wrong direction. there's huge dissatisfaction out there. donald trump plays to that through celebrity and insults and everybody is stupid. ben carson plays to it in a totally different way. both of them are tapping into the vein of the american people, democrats and republicans, saying i'm dissatisfied. i want something different. i believe, joe, that you will see this ultimately this fall what are we going to do about it instead of it being about celebrity or something else. what are you going to do and what do you think problems are and how do you propose to solve them? why will that actually work and

how will it help families and communities? that's what campaigns are supposed to be about. we haven't gotten there yet. >> willie, 51% of the people in the latest poll, 51% in the latest national poll support carson and trump. all of the people that have ever served in office for a day are below 10%. >> senator ted cruz although obviously now a member of the washington establishment, his entire rationale is rallying against the washington cartel. add him into that protest vote. governor, you have been in politics nearly 50 years. you've seen your share of insurgent candidates come through and often flame out. do you think donald trump is different? could he be the nominee of the party? >> of course he could be. do i think that's likely? i really don't. one thing i have been doing this a long time but i was really young when i started i want the record to show. the fact is that polling in late summer of the year before presidential election is

generally not indicative or predictive of what's going to happen in the spring when we start voting. that could change. but that's been the case in the past. i do think campaigns when the country is very dissatisfied, when we've got really bad results economically, we've got really bad results in foreign policy, it seems to me common sense says that at some point we have to start talking about what are different solutions people are going to offer so that the public can choose what am i voting for instead of give me some more insulting words that don't have anything to do with trying to get something done. >> what should jeb bush and scott walker and marco rubio be doing and saying at their events to sort of generate the kind of excitement and inspiration and zeal that you're seeing at carson and trump rallies. >> i don't know that the goal

ought to be to try to excite and all that. what i think they ought to do is go to the public repeatedly this is why i ought to be president instead of why somebody else ought not be. the why somebody else ought not to be runs out of gas. i thought bush was smart to put out a serious tax plan. rubio has talked seriously about foreign policy issues. i think that's what they ought to be doing. at some point the american people are going to -- >> they're at 8%, 3%, it's not working. >> where polls are now is not relevant. when they start selecting delegates, that's what matters. maybe i'm wrong. i don't have a crystal ball. i suspect between now and when they start voting, people are going to want to know more about what are you actually going to do? how are you going to do it and why would i want that done? >> governor, as you said, you've

been around the block more than once. when you see the crowds and listen to bernie sanders, ben carson, donald trump, what does your ear hear? do you hear anything in which each of them are saying to the public? >> they are appealing to the dissatisfaction of the country and within their own parties. i think it's not reported very often. a lot of the same phenomenon are happening in the democratic party as martin o'malley talked about. bernie sanders is the mccarthy of 2016. he drew huge crowds. at the end of the day he didn't get to be the democratic nominee even though he kicked out incumbent democratic president. it wasn't mccarthy. will it be bernie sanders?

i would be very surprised. it's not because i don't think hillary could lose. it's because i don't think he'll be the one that beats her. it will be joe biden or john kerry. it will be elizabeth warren somebody like that. >> in 47 years in politics i've never seen anything like it. i don't think any of us have. thank you for being with us. >> latest book, "america's great storm leading through hurricane katrina." thank you very much, haley barbour. coming up, if you have any superpower, what would it be? >> to be able to sleep eight hours a day. is that a superpower? >> wouldn't you trade 10% of your brain for looks or vice versa? "time" magazine put celebrities on the spot. stay with us. we'll be right back.

>> where do you live? >> in the city. >> do you have an apartment?

>> yes. >> where is your office? >> i don't have one. >> where is your wife? >> don't have one. >> do you have kids? >> no. >> what's your record for consecutive questions asked? >> i'm your dad's brother all right. >> nancy gibbs is here to reveal "time's" question everything issue which is super fun. we'll do that but i want to get to photo essays. those incredible. we'll start with what are the best questions in here and why are you asking them? >> how many times do we walk into a room and you see six people around a table not talking to each other because they're texting somebody else. >> that's everywhere now. >> so this was an exercise in inspiring conversation. these are questions to which there are not answers. there are just opportunities to engage with other people. so we ask things like what common practice will horrify our children? my children are astonished it

was ever possible to smoke on an airplane. what is it that our children -- that their children will be amazed by and whether robots should have rights and if you can have superpower, which one what would you have. >> who did you ask questions to? >> a cross a range just to have them spark a conversation that we can take out with us and take home. >> what was the most popular response to what superpower would you like to have? >> stephen king runs through a bunch of them. i don't want to know what other people are thinking and i don't want x-ray vision so he ended up with super speed like flash. that would be fun. i think being able to fly given the morning commute would be awesome. >> i want to be invisible. >> in many ways you are, mike. >> i was about to say that. >> this sounds like an elaborate

drinking game by the way. play this at home over the weekend. this is fantastic. ellen degeneres, ability to pick the fastest line at the grocery store. what fashions will be find afalling in the future. tim gunn said we will look back at fur. >> i agree with that. >> people will look back at the fact we ate meat and be astonished. punenelope will like this. that we fed babies juice. >> i understand that. because don't you dilute it with water just to try to make it the least amount of juice as possible? that's cool. all right. so i'm looking at the list of people who gave answers. what a diverse list. you were saying what kinds of positions they hold. charles koch. sarah silverman, steven king, ellen degeneres. candice bushnell.

>> and miss piggy. >> what did she say? >> if we had asked her about monogamy after she broke about with you know who, she might have given a different answer. >> we have incredibly power images of syrian refugees. if you can focus down on the woman at the bottom of the shot, her eyes. her face, as if looking up toward christ and heaven and miracles and please save me. incredible. >> he and simon shuster have been out with the greek coast guard as they're rescuing the ships. the smugglers are telling people don't go anywhere near the navy, near the military. of course, these are the people who are trying to save them at the moment. it is just -- it is so harrowing, what these refugees are facing all through their journey. but as we have seen, the utter tragedy of what's happening had the boats go down. they're overloaded. >> and last week has been a reminder of the 3power of

photography. whether it's the little boy washed up on the beaches or these photographs waking up the world to the problem. >> this is a classic case. we debated showing the photo, everyone did. now we live in a time of whether or not it ends up in the pictures in magazines, everyone sees those pictures. someone like david cameron said literally that photograph changed policy. >> the question everything issue of "time" is on newsstands right now. thank you very, very much. still ahead, general motors, hewlett packard, ibm and pepsi all have women for ceos, and fortune magazine just named one of them the most powerful woman in business. we'll reveal who it is. (clicking noise) (ding) read text. (siri voice) adam, i'm sorry. i shouldn't have said that about your hair. it's not stupid.

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all right. just stop. >> were you talking about me? >> no, i was not. >> nicolle said you look pretty. i said thank you. >> i know. >> it was a compliment directed at both of you, bust mostly mika. >> oh, my lord. coming up at the top of the hour -- >> really means a lot to me. >> okay. well, nicolle thinks you look pretty today. the new quinnipiac poll shows why hillary clinton would lose iowa if the caucuses were held today. >> that's impossible. >> and a new poll that shows donald trump is pulling away in the gop race and hitting a new high. >> what, that can't be? because that's not possible. >> plus, trump teams up with senator ted cruz at a rally to oppose the iran nuclear deal. >> that's possible. >> do they know it's done?

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have never been more different. ge software. get connected. get insights. get optimized. welcome back to "morning joe." >> thank god it's raining. it hasn't rained. it was an amazing summer. >> grass was all brown. >> burned out. it's going to rain for four days now. we'll make up for it, all weekend. >> oh, no. really? what about -- >> i'm building a boat.

>> an ark. >> can we bring -- >> last time it rains was 1953. >> a very long time. i need to go out to california and get water. >> how long is that supposed to go? >> up till sunday. >> all day today? >> people don't understand what we've been going through out east. nobody can understand, the horror. the horror. how am i supposed to swim if there are brown spots around my pool. >> maybe your cat has worms. >> i don't even know what that means. what does that even mean? that must me a euphemism. >> i bet you can find video of what that means online. >> people don't think she's even crazier than she is. >> poor kaliape. my daughter sent me a video that indths she needs to go to the vet. >> we're going to segue from cats with worms to the new

quinnipiac poll out this morning that for the first time shows that hillary clinton has lost the lead in iowa. this was supposed to be hillary's firewall. what mark halpern would say is a siren on top of the drudge report. bernie sanders at 41% to hillary's 40%. this is what's amazing. willie, you talked about it before. she has lost 12 points over the past couple months, but more importantly, the flip with her and bernie. 19 points in this poll. 18 points in the new hampshire poll, did you say? >> yes. >> just looking here, if you do the math, that's a 20 point flip in iowa. the nbc poll had a 19-point flip. you're talking about the first two critical states. there's the bernie sanders flip there. this is a combination of hillary clinton's slide and bernie sanders' rise. you have to give him credit for what he's done. >> mike barnicle, a lot of

people are saying things like it's so early, it doesn't matter. here's another rule. the rule is you've got to win a state. we've been talking about marco rubio. find the state marco's going to win. it's really hard. you could say the same thing for democrats. that's why chris christie didn't run in 2012 despite the fact it was his time. he talked to a lot of powerful republicans who said you're not going to win new hampshire, iowa. hillary has to talk about states she can win, and of course, if this keeps going, bernie mania keeps going, suddenly iowa and new hampshire up for play, and iowa is supposed to be her firewall. >> she and win new hampshire? >> over bernie? >> there has been a precipitous drop in support, but she's been pummeled nearly every single day all day in various forms of

media. electronic as well as print over a self-inflicted wound, the e-mails. and that residue hangs over her candidacy today. >> so, donald trump is the first republican candidate to cross 30% in the new cnn/orc poll. trump has gained eight points since august while dr. ben carson surged ten points to 19%. >> you see that event he had in anaheim. >> all the people. >> a rock star. >> the political outsiders hold an outright majority of the republican vote in this poll. jeb bush is in third place add nine points, down four points from august. mike huckabee and scott walker tie at five. marco rubio fallen five points to 3%. more than half of republicans call it an extremely important issue. in june, 39% did. for a look alt why republicans are choosing outsiders, 70% are motivated by their views on the

issues. 16% say it's on the job experience, and 7% say it's because they dislike other candidates. and republicans do not think donald trump is a flash in the pan. 51% now say he's likely to be the party's nominee. 19% say jeb bush. 11% say carson, and where 14% used to say scott walker, only 1% hold that view now. i think the trend lines are really -- it's not necessarily the numbers themselves, but the direction they're going in that is very telling. >> really telling. the establishment, nicolle, just getting pounding. >> i don't think trump will be our eventual nominee. other people have sat here and suggested that. but i think he will have left a mark on the rest of the field. i think you cannot run -- you have to run as a disrupter, which is how carson and trump are running. the rest of the guys better take a page from his book about shaking up business as usual in washington. >> they don't seem to be

disresulters, willie. >> 51%, 19 prs for carson. that's the 2016 race in a nutshell now. we said it many times but that's now the double middle finger, one from donald trump, one from ben carson to the establishment to the political system, to the media, to political correctness and everything else. >> the quote of the day. >> also look at the trend lines. keep that up and notice a month ago, everybody said trump was going to be a flash in the pan. didn't get carson just like me. the only pluses over the past month are carson and trump combined up 18%. bush, down 4%. cruz down 3%. huckabee down 1%. walker down 2%. marco down 5%. all in the negative. >> the amazing thing about trump's numbers is that not only are they durable, not only do they sustain a fight with john mccain over his military honor, a twitter war with megyn kelly over whether or not she's a bim

bow. yesterday, calling carly feareno's face too ugly to be candidate. not only do they endure. they go up. >> if you look at those numbers and the people we just showed, several months ago on the cover of "time" magazine, rand paul's picture appeared with the caption, the most interesting man in politics. he's done. >> what? >> just not -- he's not even on that poll. marco rubio was known as the future of the republican party. >> after the first debate. >> president obama's nuclear deal with iran may have the votes to withstand a congressional vote of disapproval, but its opponents are fired up as ever. yesterday, donald trump joined ted cruz and others for a rally on the lawn of the u.s. capitol. >> never, ever, ever in my life have i seen any transaction so incompetently negotiated as our

deal with iran. and i mean never. all of these countries are going to do business with iran. they're going to make lots of money and lots of other things with iran. and we're going to do and we're going to get nothing. nothing. we are led by very, very stupid people. very, very stupid people. we cannot let it continue. it will change. we will have so much winning if i get elected that you may get bored with winning. believe me. i agree. you'll never get bored with winning. we never get bored. >> let's rise up and tell every elected official in washington, no more talk. no more showboats. get it done.

stop this deal. >> only in an orwellian obama world full of sprinkly fairy dust blown from atop his unicorn as he's peeking through a really pretty pink kaleidoscope would he ever see victory or safety for america or israel in this treaty. this treaty will not bring peace. you don't reward terrorism. you kill it. >> nicolle, your candidate, sarah palin. what do you think? >> i think what she might have been trying to say is that -- >> don't do that. >> it's a bad deal. >> what about the whole rally? let's talk about the whole rally. >> listen, i -- i know the attention is on the personalities at the rally, but you actually have a majority of americans, a majority of the congress who oppose the deal. that's sort of legislative reality. you have the secretary of state, maybe thinking about running for president, make it makes more

sense, asking reid to filibuster the deal. what disturbs me is that it sort of took away from the serious nature of what's happening on the iran deal. but republicans are united and it's actually democrats that are divided in terms of schumer and cardin and other senior respected democrats supporting those who oppose the deal. but certainly, pink unicorns and i don't know, i think the kaleidoscope was pic, too. >> sprinkly fairy dust. >> you look at the pew poll out yesterday, and this snot one of the situations where there's a rally outside willie and you know, only 15%, 20% of the people support the position that they're espousing. you have a pew poll that shows 49% of americans oppose the deal. only 21% support the deal. 70% think the iranians are going to cheat and not live by the standards of the deal. and i will not blame the president of the united states for going to american university

and claiming you're a terrorist if you don't support his deal, that you're stupid, ignorant, but this is dangerous going into a deal this important with americans so opposed to that deal. >> and you know it doesn't help like quotes like the one in the "new york times" from the supreme leader of iran, about israel. i'm telling you first, you will not be around in 25 years time. god willing there will be no zionist ruzeme in 25 years. people hear that and they say that's the regime we're negotiating with. president obama has the votes in the senate. that doesn't matter. that's the rhetoric that we're dealing with. >> that's the rhetoric israel has been dealing with for years with the president of iran or the supreme leader of iran. they have consistently told their people and the world that they were going to wipe israel off the face of the earth. at the same time, they're developing a nuclear program. and for some reason, those of us

in the west, those of us in europe, those of us in america sit back and we're smug. they don't believe that. i have always said it, it's just so absolutely preposterous how hypocritical we americans are. if we withstood the threats from nations around us that israel withstands, we would have wiped them all out by now. mexico city would have had like dairy queens on every corner and six flags over mexico city. if they threatened to wipe america off the face of the earth, if they had been as hostile to us as iran has been to israel, the united states of america would be in there. i'm sorry, that's just who we are. we are. we don't put up with crap from other countries that threaten us existentially. >> so we should be in there? what are you saying? >> we should be in there because mexico city, nobody from

mexico -- >> stay with me. nobody in mexico has threatened to wipe us off the face of the earth, we but sit here smugly saying what's israel worried about? how dare they come to the united states and complain about a deal with a country that continues even as they said yesterday, to promise that they would wipe israel off the face of the earth. and at the same time, the very country that is supposed to protect them is doing a deal as they see with the devil. >> i think one place where the white house has been misguided is calling everyone who opposes the deal somehow it's only because of their support from jewish supporters assuming there's no policy or moral reason for seeing what you just described, that you must merely be making a political -- it's insulting to senators like chuck schumer, insulting to people like ben cardin. >> it's the jewish lobby. you people kowtow -- it's always been the dog whistle from the

left that if -- you can't if you're chuck schumer, sincerely be concerned about the safety and the future existence of israel. >> yeah. >> that's always been the dog whistle. oh, you're just listening to the jewish lobby. why don't you just say international bankers. why don't you talk about international bankers and the protocols of zion. it's sick and it's repulsive and a spemear and it continues. and the president of the united states only makes it worse by saying you have to be ignorant or else in bed with iranian radicals if you oppose my deal. and then you have thoughtful senators like angus king coming out saying this was the single hardest decision i ever made in my life. i have heard that from so many democrats. >> cory booker. >> they all say this is the single hardest decision i made in my life. for some reason, with a lot of left wingers in america and europe, this is the one issue

where you're not allowed to be reasonable, where reasonable people can differ. you're either guest israel and for this deal or the jewish lobby has paid you off and you're scared of these powerful jews lurking behind crevices and international banks. it's sickening. and it's bigotry, and it should be called out. who dares suggest that chuck schumer is doing this? >> oh, my god. okay. that's like the fourth time. we get the point. >> no, you don't get the point. you're the last person on the face of the earth that appears to get the point. >> are you kidding me? go to the rally? why didn't you go to the rally yesterday? there's lots of reasonable people who are making a lot of sense. okay, and it's not like the republican party has been reasonable every step of the way as this deal was being put together. in fact, they have been horrific. in fact, they have been worse. and -- >> than whom? >> a lot of people are saying it's the hardest decision they

had to make is a reasonable way of deciding whether to go for or against the deal, because this deal is not easy. but you tell me what other viable options there are. >> the president said it's easy. you're missing my whole point. >> at this point, it is easy, yes. >> he said all along this is the easiest decision anybody can make. if you go to the american university speech and he says if you're not for this deal, you're ignorant or in bed with the iranian hardliners. it's offensive. >> and listen, i don't completely disagree with everything you just said, but there is a bipartisan bill in the senate, the corker/cardin bill required an up or down vote, and the white house is calling for a filibuster of the gravest foreign policy debate we have seen praeps since the surge. >> still ahead, not too early to place for your bets in the race for 2016. steve rattner has charts showing who the smart money is on. >> plus, together they run companies worth well over $1 trillion.

fortune magazine is out with its list of powerful women in business. we'll reveal the list ahead. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. (clicking noise) (ding) read text. (siri voice) adam, i'm sorry. i shouldn't have said that about your hair. it's not stupid. (ding) find hair salon. wow. yeah, that's right. (siri voice) ok, jack's boutique is nearby. alright, i've got another friend and his name is bryan adams. ok. this isn't going to work again. ♪"please forgive me, i know not what i do..."♪ introducing app-connect. the things you love on your phone, available on 11 volkswagen models.

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joyce, can't eat gluten, we found a way to remove the grains that contain gluten, from the naturally gluten free oats that cheerios are made of. so now we can have cheerios together, anytime. i'm a senior field technician for pg&e here in san jose. pg&e is using new technology to improve our system, replacing pipelines throughout the city of san jose, to provide safe and reliable services. raising a family here in the city of san jose has been a wonderful experience. my oldest son now works for pg&e. when i do get a chance, an opportunity to work with him, it's always a pleasure.

i love my job and i care about the work i do. i know how hard our crews work for our customers. i want them to know that they do have a safe and reliable system. together, we're building a better california. welcome back to "morning joe." joining us now, former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst, steve rattner. hello, steve. >> good morning, mika. >> steve, you said you wanted to be here in the iran talk. >> i would have loved it. >> you're here now. >> no, no. we'll talk about iran in a moment. let's do this a little bit. somebody has been talking too much. >> mika. mika, mika. i like the fact that you're self-aware, but please, you don't have to put yourself down on tv. polls up, according to one

republican front runner, but the online betting market predicts someone else is going to win the nominati nomination. a couple days ago, joey came up and said, since hillary's e-mail scandal has exploded and it's all the press has covered, her odds of being elected president have gone up on the online betting services because of the clown show on the republican side. >> we'll get to that. i'm show you the numbers and everyone can have their opinion. let's start with the republicans because obviously, there's a food fight going on there. jeb bush has been the front-runner, the red line on top. he's been the front-runner since the beginning. he peaked here, right around the time of the first gop debate. after that debate, he started to edge down. 36%, this is still a 36% probability, according to this, that he will be the republican -- >> in a field of 17. that's pretty good. >> be the republican nominee. now, donald trump back in june was effectively at zero. and you can see he's up to 15%. so he is in the second place.

but still well behind jeb bush in terms of probability. >> wow. >> then right next to him is marco rubio, who again, if you look at the history, was doing pretty well. kind of fell off a cliff back in the summer. and then was rescued a bit by the debate. climbed back up to the 14% range. where he sits at the moment. then, we have talked a lot on the show about skaucott walker,u have, anyway, and scott walker has been in a steady decline and a more precipitous decline since the debate. 8%. and all the way at the bottom is ben carson at 5%. people are not taking the ben carson candidacy seriously. >> ben carson, who had the greatest surge of all the cand dpts. >> a great surge in the polls. there are a lot of questions about whether he knows anything about policy and has experience and so on. let's turn to the democratic side. and hillary clinton, and then i'll get to joey's point at the end. clinton has been steadily at the

top of the pack. this goes back to july. >> those are sectariate numbers. >> those are secretariat numbers. >> the belmont, naeb 73. >> she may not be doing well in new hampshire polls. may be having problems in iowa polls, but people are putting their money down still give her a 70% chance. she was up at 86% at her peak. it's been a bit coming down slightly, but still really high. >> the bottom is alex likes to say, though she's still the secretariat of state. >> thank you, alex. >> you have saunders and biden at roughly 14%, 13%. biden, of course, is not in the race yet. and most of his support seems to actually come from clinton, not from sanders, who is gliding along at 13%. if you look at the general election and what's going to happen, you can see that while we don't know who either of the nominees are, the online polls have been very steadily since the beginning giving the democrats a 57% chance.

it was actually higher at the time of the first gop debate. it was higher back here. and so you could argue that this drift down does reflect some of hillary's issues. nonetheless, and i think your son may well be right, but we can leave that for the table, the republicans perhaps because of all their shenanigans and the possibility they nominate they elect someone who is unelectable is down 33% in terms of winning the general election. that's my report for today. >> every saturday and sunday during football season, i'm amazed how close las vegas gets to the scores. it's incredible. do you put a lot of stock in these numbers? as a numbers person? >> these numbers have been right historically. they have picked the last three presidents. they picked 49 out of 50 -- 33 out of 34 senate races. >> they get vp picks right more often than not. >> an extraordinary record. and so i -- look, i certainly think put stock on the republican side of the nomination.

i'm not saying jeb bush is going to be the nominee, but the idea trump is running away with this or ben carson is running away with this is unimaginable. >> what does it say to the republican party if these polls are accurate? what message should it be sending that there's a 14-point spread between democrats and republicans? >> well, i think that the cad dts who are aiming their fire at hillary clinton, i went to a briefing yesterday for the bush campaign, and all of their energy is on contrasting republicans and jeb bush with hillary clinton. i mean, they see one of the ripest areas of trustworthiness, on transparency. >> why is he getting into the fight? i started to hear people saying, i see the back and forth on instagram between bush and trump and i don't like either of them. >> i wondered what i was missing by not being on instagram. >> a lot. >> shouldn't he focus on hillary? >> maybe that's sort of the -- the mini atmosphere of the campaign trail.

you're surrounded by a scrum of reporters who said you just insulted your spanish-speaking wife. you want to comment? of course, you do. you're human. a majority of republicans are more animated and inspired by what he's saying. i called my dad who is in the trump club with your brother, and i said do you still like him? he said, i love him. i said what about the fight with bill o'reilly. he said i'm rooting for him. i said, what about him calli in carly fiorina's face -- he said, i don't like it, but i like what he says. he has the ability to alter how these guys run. he will have changed bush, hopefully for the better, for the general election. >> coming up, why apple failed to impress investors with its new iphone and tv. plus, a record smashing year for women on wall street. fortune magazine is out with its list of most powerful women in business, including a special spot for taylor swift. that's next on "morning joe."

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all right, let's go to sarah season joining us from the new york stock exchange. sara, a big drop for u.s. markets. halfway throughout the day, i sat there and thought, okay, the $12 i put in, it's doing pretty well. then boom, end of the day, collapse. what happened? what's going to happen today? i need my $12 back.

>> hard to predict, joe. but clearly, we are in a completely new environment when it comes to the markets and vultility is the name of the game. markets were up yesterday. a 400-point swing on the dow, and then closed down more than 200 points. >> any idea why? what was the psychology going on on the floor that made a big, a day that looked like it was going to have a lot of big gains turn the other way? >> there were a few reasons. there's no single reason. that gives you a sense of the fact sentiment has changed. the big uncertainty weighing on the market continues to be china, its slowdown and what it's going to do to global economic growth, especially in emerging markets. the federal reserve, which next week meets on interest rates and may raise interest rates for the first time in a decade. nobody knows how the markets and the economy is going to react to that. a huge source of uncertainty for the markets. apple, which is such a big weight on the markets -- >> not a great day for apple. they go out and announce a couple new items and expanded

apple tv and a new iphone, and plop. nothing. >> yeah. wall street wasn't that impressed. if you read some of the research notes from analysts, they say, sure, it wasn't anything game changing, but for the most part, they were impressed. the problem with apple is yes, it's trying to get into tv and releasing a new set-top box, trying to get into enterprise or business professionals with this new almost 13-inch screen ipad, but this is an iphone company and it's an iphone company that has seen substantial double digit growth. three quarters of its revenues are in iphones. they're wondering if that growth can continue. that's really the big question mark hanging over apple as well as concerns about china, which has been a huge growth market for apple, even though tim cook yesterday, the ceo, did say apple is still growing very strongly in china. it's something he reiterated to jim cramer in an e-mail a few weeks ago. there are questions when it

comes to apple. and then basically, technical levels on the markets and it's creating a lot of pessimism. we're in this new environment questioning the high valuations. >> i'm not really great in business. i kind of read "sports illustrated" in econ101, but the futures look like we're going to have the down open today. >> anything can happen. yesterday it looked like we were going to have an up day. a lot of swinging around. >> thank you so much. cnbc's sara eisen. we appreciate it. >> with us now, fortune magazine's assistant managing editor, pattie sellers. she's here to reveal fortune's most powerful women of 2015. such a great list. >> also with us is the director of the center for american progress, christie hefner. good to have you back on the show. >> nice to be here. >> perfect, since you have been on this list three times. >> i have. >> one, two, three. and the inaugural list had carly fiorina on it. >> it did. in 1998. >> gosh. amazing.

so here we are, and let's first talk about number one. who's number one on the list? >> mary barra. the ceo of general motors. we have a new number one this year. she displaced jenny rometty, the ceo of ibm. it was a surprise to us because ginni rometty has overseen 13 quarters of revenue declines and mary barra has not had a fun ride at gm. >> a rough, rough ride. >> and she's done a really good job. >> in what way? >> this is a $156 billion company with the biggest -- its biggest crisis in decades, and she has handled it with calmness and authority, and name a ceo who could have done a better job than mary barra did. the stock has not done well, but no leader could preside over that company and get the stock up at this time. and she's controlled the crisis.

>> that's interesting. we always talk about sometimes women take over when things are sort of at their end. have you seen that? >> the ship's going down, let's make history and pick a woman. yeah! >> and then when the ship doesn't immediately turn around, it's like, well, we shouldn't have tried that woman. i think there's a tendency to do that, and there's a silver lining in that which is that crises in a time of opportunity. it's a time to take bold moves because people know they have to change. so it gives you a chance, if you're the woman in that situation, to be a transformational leader and not someone who is simply perpetuating the status quo. >> one of our favorites. >> runs a $66 billion food and beverage company, was first on the healthy foods kick. you know, you can make jokes about it. frito-lay healthy snacks, but she's doing the best she can in her environment to turn pepsi co

into a company that is fit for modern times. >> and she started thinking about this in the '80s. back before it was cool to think healthy. and she sort of saw the future. >> mm-hmm. ia know, she went through a period a couple years ago where a lot of people thought she wouldn't be able to keep her job. talk about guts and grit, which all of these companies have. she, ellen coleman, and irene rosenfeld, ellen coleman, the ceo of dupont, and rosenfeld, the ceo of half of what krafrt used to be, defended themselves against one of the toughest activists this year. >> what about number four, marilyn huson. ceo and president of lockheed martin. >> $55 billion company, one of the biggest defense companies in the world. we have another of the ceos of one of the biggest defense

companies, northrop grumman on the list. >> that's a change, right? you used to have old generals that have retired. >> there are still a lot who work there. >> get off the golf course and run it. these are trendsetters. >> think about this. the two biggest tech companies in america, ibm and hewlett-packard, both run by women. gm, the biggest car company in america, run by a woman. two of the biggest defense contractors. it's a lot different. >> a changing world. >> it is. and i was actually thinking the corollary to the leadership growth of women is the focus that's increasingly there on some of these issues that we talked about years ago in the context of a woman's nation. which is the need to have clearer scheduling, to have paid family leave, so that women that are in the workforce not at the top, so they're not, you know, marissa mayer who is choose to come right back to work because she has help at home, there's someone who would be worried about not having a job to come

back to. those issues are now embraced by corporate america, by candidates across the political spectrum. i think that's a really encouraging sign if you want to talk about unleashing the power. >> technology, catching up to fill in some of the gaps. >> a company i was skeptical about because i hate facebook. >> stop, it i love it. >> but i'm saying, though, they have -- they had a bad ipo, things went down. people like me were critical. over the past year and a half, facebook is moving towards taking over the world. number eight, a woman who deserves to be on the list, sheryl sandberg. they really have. even skeptics like me that never liked facebook, have to admit they have won. and she's been a huge part of it. >> you know, the ipo did do really badly, and you talk to people in silicon valley right now, talk to the experts, and most everybody says that this is probably the best run company in

the tech industry. google is very well, but mark zuckerberg and sheryl sandberg have it together, and they got on mobile, and it's growing incredibly fast. >> ipo goes badly and they everybody says they haven't figured out how to bring revenue to mobile. a year later, you're like, oh, wow. they're turn doing it really well. turning around a ship really quickly. that's hard to do. >> she joined facebook from google when mark zuckerberg was 23 years old. to his credit, he realized when he was young that he needed someone, and so he's grown up basically having this true business expert, this organization scaler by his side. they're a great team. >> the thing about ipos is it's a lot about expectations. so i think the expectations were

perhaps unrealistic in terms of what the immediate performance would be. and it wasn't that the pipeline wasn't strong. it wasn't that they didn't have a good strategy. there had to be a calibration of expectations with performance. >> pattie sellers, thank you. we'll look for the newish ow of fortune magazine. christie hefner -- >> by the way, 51. taylor swift. >> that's my girl. love it. >> what a powerhouse. >> we couldn't resist. >> i can understand. >> for good reason. find another muziegz who can take on spotify and apple in the same year and win. >> still ahead, it's bad enough when you need to go to the doctor. now there are growing concerns that physicians are also in need of care. the president and ceo of the mayo clinic joins us next on "morning joe." hello. oh. yes, hi. want to survive... ...a crazy busy day? start with a positive attitude... great. thanks. ...and positively radiant skin.

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were physicians in need of care. one recent survey found an alarming 51% of physicians report at least one symptom of burnout and projected shortfalls of as many as 90,000 physicians over the next ten years. with us to talk about it, the president and ceo of the mayo clinic, johninosewor noseworthy clint studer out with a timely book, healing physician burnout, diagnosin diagnosing, preventing and treating. thank you for being with us. john, i'm hearing this from one great physician after another. i have had enough. these are the older ones. i had enough. i'm going to retire five years early. i'm getting out of this racket. how do we turn that around? >> i think we have to understand, face up to it, and create strategies for different levels of the careers that these folks have. it's different for a person well into their career versus a medical student. there are multiple factors at play. we have studied this, done

research on this. clint's book highlights some of that. and it's a big issue in the medical profession, as you suggested. they're selfless folks and they want to do good work. increasingly in today's world, they're distracted by the good work by all the burdens placed on them. particularly regulatory and clerical burden. >> talk about that, clint. you have written a book about it. everything you're writing in here i'm hearing from physicians all over the country. >> burnout is classified as a loss of energy, idealism and purpose. that's what doctors went into it. doctors are spending up to seven hours doing things that don't involve talking to patients. >> which is what they want to do. >> right. >> they want to treat, they want to help. >> what you're losing is your connection to why i did this in the first place. >> policies like obamacare and tort reform become clinical, but

when you're a patient in an emergency room, you don't have partisan politics on your brain. what are the effects of obamacare and moving away from doing anything to protect doctors from litigation? how does that affect this burnout? >> well, i think the structure, i'm not sure it's obamacare because i think it's -- >> regulation more broadly. >> regulation, as we went into electronic health record, there was great promise that's going to make my job easier, and i think eventually it will, but we saw a correlation between the more computerized a doctor was, the more likely they were to burn out because -- >> why? >> they're adjusting to technology they're not used to. and doctors are elite performers. according to maslow's theory, when someone is skilled and they have to learn mew skills, they feel like they're going backwards. they hate going backwards. >> i started seeing this a couple years ago, and skr stopped going to these doctors. how are we doing? they're looking at an ipad or computer when they're talking to

you or your 6-year-old child and some of the greatest doctors i have ever been to go like this. ask you questions. they look at you. and spot it that way. this is a brave new world that's dangerous. >> this is not why they went into medicine, and they recognize that. they're looking at the computer instead of the family, at the patient, at the dynamics, and that's a concern for the physicians. they see it, they're losing the purpose of their work. they're losing meaning in work, and they develop a lack of energy, emotional exhaustion, and they can get to the point of depersonalization, where they start to treat patients -- >> has this already trickled down in terms of what patients feel? >> it does. george ford, who collaborated with me, a physician from methodist in san antonio, had burned out years ago, and called me and said your stuff works here. what happens is when a doctor is burned out, they get more cynical. now row have teamwork issues with the nurses which is so

vital. you're less effective, which now that means it's going to be slower on your productivity, and the other issue is access. people want access. if a doctor is burned out, their prr not as likely to fit in the next patient. >> or to respond to an e-mail. >> it impacts access. with a study on mayo clinic residents, you get into medical errors and clinical quality, and it's a serious issue. i believe every strategy i see in health care talks about all this sexy stuff. if we don't recapture the physicians hearts, there will be no health care. >> a great time to be in medicine, in spite of all this, shining a bright light on the problem is the first step to correcting it. the book does a great job of that. we do research to understand what are the factors and what can you do. what works? we know that, so many places, mayo clinic included, start with medical students. day one, you look after yourself, your health, and your level of stress. and we assess it.

we assess it all the way through medical school. we surround them by people who are helping them, and then they have to carry that, those skills, resiliency and so on, into their career. at the higher level, at the institutional level, it's important for the organization to make sure that the doctors aren't burned out so they do good work. they don't have medical errors and that involved the institution relieving doctors as much as you can of their clerical burden and trying to do what we can to make them physicians again. >> that would be a relief. thank you. the book is "healing physician burnout." thank you. dr. john noseworthy, thank you for being here. you guys come back. >> we would like to. >> this is great. we'll be right back with more "morning joe." i think you'll love our newest line the stuff my vendor sells works fine. and my budget's small, just so you know. ♪ should i stay or should i go when you choose to go for business,

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who knows, one of these kids just might be the one. to clean the oceans, to start a movement, or lead a country. it may not be obvious yet, but one of these kids is going to change the world. we just need to make sure she has what she needs. welcome to windows 10. the future starts now for all of us. hey, there. good thursday morning. i'm alex witt in today for jose diaz-balart. first up, something we haven't seen yet in the presidential race. a new poll released shows hillary clinton losing her lead in iowa. she is now jus