tonight another republican candidate is closing in on donald trump's lead. plus, a pro clinton super pac attacks bernie sanders and he fires back. and security concerns are growing ahead of the pope's u.s. visit. but first, ben carson is closing in on donald trump. polling from cbs news and "the new york times" shows the gap between donald trump and ben carson has thinned to 4% nationally. carson is within the margin of error. that means they're basically tied. trump's climb is overshadowed by carson's massive leap. last month, carson was polling 6% and trump isn't impressed by carson's buzz. >> here's the headline. carson surging. i say, what about me, where's my name? i'm at 40. where's my name? it's unbelievable. do you know where my name is? [ cheers and applause ] >> they don't know where my name

is either. by the way, can you see in the back, they have the best view? can you see it's really my hair? >> the big numbers, the big apple billionaire businessman refers to come out of new hampshire. while ben carson has caught up nationally, trump is blowing other candidates out of the water in the granite state. and he wants to assure his supporters that a disappearing act is not part of the show. >> now it's time to really start. because this is going to happen. i'm telling you, i'm not going anywhere. >> that means stopping every candidate in his way. carson got his first taste earlier in september. he told reporters the difference between him and trump, i've realized where my success has come from, carson said, and i don't in any way, deny my faith in god. trump scolded carson for questioning his faith, but before trump could pull out the heavy artillery, carson did something other candidates have never done while going head to head with the businessman.

he apologized. carson told the "wall street journal" it was inappropriate and issued an apology to trump. his massive texas rally on monday, the gop front-runner noticeably played nice. >> ben carson, good guy. >> and ben carson is still playing the humility card. >> everybody has different kinds of experiences, and you know, it's human nature to think that whatever you do is the greatest thing and provides everybody with their messiah. i don't have that complex, quite frankly. >> such humility could be carson's ace in the hole. but with carson pulling ahead, we'll see if the strategy can endure. tonight's question, can ben carson actually win the republican nomination for president? log on to pulse.msnbc.com and we'll share your response later in the show.

joining me now, susan del percio and josh barrow. thank you both for being here. josh, is ben carson a real threat to donald trump? >> probably not. i don't know. in some way, the surge makes sense. because while donald trump appears tonally to so many republicans, his issue positions is very unusual for a republican primary. he's taken a lot of positions that aren't conservative. he's been hammering against free trade, talking about how taxes on certain people should go up. ben carson combines outsider positioning with orthodox positions, including he's for a flat tax, very sharp tax cuts. so in a way, he can thread a needle, appeal to people who don't like establishment politicians, but don't want to abandon conservative principles. on the other hand, ben carson isn't that well known by the electorate. i don't think people -- in the last debate, when he had to talk about policy, he stumbled over

it. donald trump doesn't know a lot about it either. but he has this bravado to get through. i think there's room for ben carson to stumble as he gets more attention paid to him and has to talk more in specifics. >> the thing that i find fascinating about donald trump is exactly what josh said. when it comes to free trade, taxation, single payer health care, his remarks on planned parenthood, if he were anyone else, the republican party base would just toss him to the wolves, and yet, there he is as the front-runner. can ben carson, given what josh said, who is much more in line ideologically with the base, can he overtake trump? >> i don't think he will. and here's why. ben carson is in a lot of ways, i think chuck todd said it, a place card for a lot of voters right now. you have to remember, if the poll you just referred to, 67% of the folks -- or 63% of the voters have not made up their

mind. they have said it's too early to tell. now while people are getting to know ben carson and they like him and you see his favorability. he went from 40% unknown down to 16 and then all his favorablity shot up. but a place holder for people who are frustrated with the system, want someone different but can't support donald trump. plus, you see a lot of women going with ben carson right now, when you look at that poll, because again, they don't find trump's way very appealing. and it will be interesting to see how trump really treats carson in tomorrow night's debate. because he's been taking on bush because he's always thought he was the front-runner and had to bring him down a few pegs. so if he now sees carson as his closest competitor, what will he try and do? it will be a very interesting place to do it. i don't think he will actually, but you could be prepared for that. >> we've seen this situation

where anyone who goes after donald trump, they go down in the polls. we've seen it with jeb bush, seen it with -- >> but they've been down in the polls before. >> jeb bush? he's fallen -- >> yeah, but it started with -- perry did it. governor perry did it. bobby jindal has done it. >> rand paul. >> all of these folks had nowhere to go. they were just looking for media attention. bush is another scenario. but the other folks did it solely for the fact that they wanted to get attention. donald trump has taken all the oxygen out. they thought maybe they could get something. turns out the only one who actually did it right if they wanted to get some of that oxygen was ted cruz who did an event with him, because he knew all the cameras would come. >> the other thing about ted cruz's campaign, he's there like lady in waiting, hoping for donald trump to implode so he can take all of his followers. but the question here about the attacks on donald trump backfiring on people who do

them, do you think ben carson's apology was more protective maneuver or is it just ben carson, or is it both? >> well, i also think it's not really ben carson's style to get in fights. like you could see that in the clips and donald trump has made fun of him for this, saying he's like jeb bush, a low-energy candidate. if donald trump is the fight candidate and often you hear his supporters say, he fights. it's like ben carson is the anti-fight candidate. it will be interesting to see how that develops. because the way the primary went four years ago, everyone was trying to be the anti-romney. if you're in that position, you don't just have to fight the front-runner, you have to fight all the people who are trying to get in that position. so if you're ben carson, what do people like rubio and walker and cruz start saying about carson? because they realize, if trump implodes, they need to be in position to get the support.

>> well, as ben carson edges closer in the polls and you just said it, i agree with you, that he's not a fighter. he's not going to be someone who is going to go toe to toe, then what does donald trump do to blunt ben carson? does he attack ben carson, someone who clearly is not going to fight him? doesn't he risk looking like more of a bully? >> well, conventional wisdom doesn't play right now with donald trump. so, yes, i would answer you in any other situation, of course he shouldn't go after ben carson. that wouldn't make sense, because he's already riding high. he doesn't have to do that. it's not about taking down ben carson. actually, he has to start spreading his appeal to a lot of other voters, who will naturally -- who support ben carson, but will come over because they realize maybe he's not as obnoxious as people think he is. but at this point, trump has just got to keep going forward on his own agenda. i don't -- attacking other people isn't going to work for him in this debate.

or even in the next weeks going forward. he's already so far ahead. he did that to get ahead. now he's just got to keep wowing the crowds, which is going to be very tiring for him. and it's hard to do. >> wowing the crowds, but at what point will the crowds demand some substance to go with the dessert they've been getting all this time? >> i think trump is right when he says demands for that are mostly coming from the media and not the public. he was saying before he released his immigration plan, the media wants a 14-point plan, but i know when you get to washington, you have to throw out the plan, because you have to make a deal. and i think that line works with people. because to a great extent, its true. all these candidates are out there with their tax plans, they won't be able to impose those when they're president. trump said, when i'm president i'm going to call up ford and say, if they don't take their

plants out of mexico, i'm going to tax them at 35%. you can't do that. but i think he's right, most voters they're not going to read the 14-point plan. most voters also don't know that much about policy. they look to the cues about how people talk and who they make angry in order to figure out who they should support. so much of trump's support is conservatives looking at him and seeing how much he annoys liberals. >> and there was another poll that came out that said 55% of registered voters feel that the republican party does not connect with them. that they don't represent the things that they care about. and that is right there with trump. that's all he has to keep doing, saying the things that josh was mentioning. the specifics don't matter right now. >> right now. >> 66% of the people think it's too early to tell. while it can disqualify some folks, i just don't think it plays to donald trump at this point. it's an amazing thing. i don't understand it.

i've been doing this for 25 years. >> you've been doing this for a long time and we've been watching. >> it goes against everything that you go through with a candidate in the process. but these are certainly interesting times. when would you think a socialist would be leading hillary clinton? >> the thing about donald trump and ben carson, watching events they did yesterday, ben carson being asked very substantive questions and giving very thoughtful answers, i mean, answers that you could grab your hands on to and say, you know, i don't agree with him, but at least he's got a thoughtful answer. and then you listen to donald trump and you get the razzmatazz and the hey, i'm going to throw 35% tax on there, but knowing full well there's no way he's going to be able to do that. >> but he says he can. and he says it very well with flare and energy. >> and it represents a grievance that a lot of people have that politicians on the left and right are not speaking to. nobody's out there offering

substance that speaks to middle class economic concerns on the right or left. he's stepped into a vacuum. >> thank you both for being here. oh, actually, you're staying here. still to come, pope francis's first trip to the united states next week, prompts several cities to ramp up their security. how cities plan to correct the crowds is coming up ahead. and new evidence that hillary clinton's campaign is starting to see bernie sanders as a threat. how one hillary clinton super pac is attacking sanders, next. baltimore

. >> by now, you've seen a lot of news coverage on the migrant crisis gripping europe. but last night, lester holt covered the tragic situation in a way that hit our hearts. >> the stories i've heard over the last three days and the people pouring across this border, are stories we've told you about before, the shelling of aleppo, the tyranny of isis

in iraq, ethnic persecution, except now it's landed on europe's doorsteps. now we're seeing it through the eyes of weary children, facing new lives in a new land. >> families have taken unimaginable risks to flee conflict in insecurity in their home countries. already nearly 3,000 migrants have drowned trying to cross the mediterranean this year. the sad reality is that europe isn't prepared for the hundreds ever thousands flooding their borders in search of a better life. yesterday, european union officials failed to agree to a modest plan. if you'd like to learn how you can help, head over to msnbc.com for a list of organizations you can contacts.

donald trump has climbed the

republican polls by attacking his opponents. but the top democratic candidates have pledged not to stoop to negative stumping. the sanders campaign says they will never run a negative ad against hillary clinton. while clinton avoids mentioning sanders' name to the trail altogether. the campaigns promise to keep it civil, but a hillary clinton super pac isn't following suit. they sent an e-mail monday, noting similarities between senator sanders and the leader of the uk's far left labour party jeremy corbyn. it points to several controversial comments by corbin, including calling nato's plan of action against russia, one of the biggest threats of our time. the super pac also draws a link to late venezuelan president hugo chavez, who corbyn praised.

in 2006, sanders helped negotiate a deal to provide low income households in vermont with discounted heating oil. the clinton campaign hasn't commented, but the sanders campaign said it's a vicious attack. with the latest monmouth university poll showing sanders up seven points on clinton in new hampshire, there's no doubt they're taking sanders seriously. >> lanny davis, executive vice president at lefic and former white house special counsel. thank you for being here. what do you make of the super pac's attempts to link sanders to corbyn's views? >> first, this points to why bernie says no super pacs and

why we're not taking super pac support at all, and why we would support legislation that would get rid of them altogether. billionaires in politics doesn't work for working people. the clinton campaign should apologize for those attacks, correct the record, is not on the record, they're way off. and that's why you saw the response today from our campaign. >> lenny, as you know, super pacs and campaigns don't coordinate, they don't work together, but how should the clinton campaign approach this? >> i'd like to speak for myself. i'm here as a friend, long time from law school. i'm not an official, i'm not a surrogate. i'm speaking for myself. i am very disappointed and strongly disagree in the substance of what correct the record has done. i rely on correct the record when they tell me facts about votes, record, what is a fact. the use of the word similar and the other linkage words is

completely objectionable to me. i have a great deal of admiration for bernie sanders. i'm glad he's running. he's raising the right issues. hillary clinton admires him greatly, has not criticized him at all. and the debate that bernie sanders and hillary clinton, both progressive democrats are having, they agree on the income disparity issues. they agree on beicracking down abuses on wall street and this correct the record, use of the word similarity is a terrible mistake, and i hope they retract it. >> so then, lenny, let me follow up, why shouldn't the campaign call on correct the record to do what you just said? again, noting that the campaign and the super pac are not working together. >> well, i'd be surprised, i don't speak for the campaign, i would be surprised if hillary clinton were happy with this line of similarity, linkage, guilt by association, innuendo. it's the opposite of what i know

about hillary clinton her entire public life. she sticks to facts. facts drive her. it's what i never do, or try -- if i do, i apologize for doing, which is to use adjectives and adverbs about people, rather than debating the issues. and to the bernie sanders supporters on tv, i hope someday we'll be together supporting a democrat. i'm glad senator sanders has raised the issue of repudiating super pacs and that someday perhaps we'll get a steeshl amendment reversing the supreme court decision that made corporate money so powerful in america. >> clinton supporters are worried about sanders' growing popularity. is the clinton campaign worried as well? >> i would agree with what lanny just said. i'm hoping they will say, this is way out of line. we reject it. that was representative of joe

kennedy's heating oil plan that vermont and six other states embraced. are they going to attack the kennedy family as well? so these kinds of comments are way out of line. and as we again just heard from lanny, the bigger issue is why the super pac money in this campaign at all? it's about time, americans are fed up with big money in politics. one of the reasons i joined the campaign is bernie's stand against big money in politics, keep the billionaires out. that's what we need to do. we need governance by the people, not by the billionaires. >> lanny, let's move from talking about the super pacs and talking about the super poll numbers for senator sanders. do you think the clinton campaign should be worried about senator sanders' rising poll numbers? >> well, i think we respect senator sanders is running a competitive race. i wrote a column in my hill column that i write each week, in which i said i wouldn't be

surprised if bernie sanders won both iowa and new hampshire. i think when he gets into the big states and he's faced with a variety of voters, it will be a competitive race. we've always said that bernie sanders and any other democrat that enters the race, that it's going to be a competitive race. it's only the media that gets surprised that hillary clinton drops from 60% to 40%. it's always been a competitive race from day one. so the answer is, of course we're concerned that somebody might beat hillary clinton in any primary. i hope that hillary clinton comes through in both new hampshire and iowa. but i think it's going to be a tough race all the way through to the convention. and then mr. cohen and i are going to be united supporting a progressive democrat who will do something about income disparity, and do something about fair taxation, the things that hillary clinton and bernie sanders stand for, against whatever republican is nominated. >> larry, let me bring up something that lanny just talked

about. he even said, lanny just said that he wouldn't be surprised if hillary clinton lost iowa and new hampshire. but the competitive part will come once you leave those two states and meet up with, as lanny said, a variety of voters. one of the criticisms of senator sanders and one of the concerns is that once you get into states like south carolina, that has a large african american voting population, how does senator sanders connect with african americans enough to make himself competitive in not just south carolina, but in a lot of those southern states where the african american voting bloc and just people of color are more plentiful than they are in iowa and new hampshire? >> yeah, so first of all, i don't believe anybody in the clinton campaign expected bernie sanders to be up ten points in iowa and new hampshire, as he is today. i think it's the message. i don't think it's just about having competition. there are two other democrats with single numbers at best.

in terms of african american voters, i was just in south carolina for two days, iowa four days before that. this is a ground swell. and the kind of response that senator sanders got at benedict university, an historically black university, students, whether black or white or latino, embracing him everywhere. that's what i saw in iowa. that's what i saw in south carolina. union members, mostly african american, at the state aflcio, wildly enthusiastic about bernie when i spoke there. so i think we'll see african american leadershipship across the south and across the country in this campaign. >> let me correct any inference. i did not mean to infer that bernie sanders isn't just as capable of attracting people of color and also diverse voters because of his progressive views and the correct ideas he has about the country. i am saying that the universe of voters expands and expands into

larger states, and hillary clinton, i still believe will be the nominee. she got 18 million votes against one of the greatest candidates ever in barack obama. so i do not mean to infer that bernie sanders cannot appeal to a wider variety of voters. still ahead, the details on the latest republican pundit to fall off the trump bandwagon. plus, marco rubio's latest desperate push for air time. now he's using footballs to gain votes. [ male announcer ] whether it takes 200,000 parts, ♪ 800,000 hours of supercomputing time, 3 million lines of code, 40,000 sets of eyes, or a million sleepless nights. whether it's building the world's most advanced satellite, the space station, or the next leap in unmanned systems. at boeing, one thing never changes. our passion to make it real. ♪

i built my business with passion. our passion to make it real. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet? advertise your eyes! supersize your lashes. new covergirl's super sizer mascara gives you 400% more volume. supersize. mesmerize. advertise your eyes. the super sizer. new from easy, breezy, beautiful. covergirl

isn't it beautiful when things just come together? build a beautiful website with squarespace. hey babe, last one home cooks? ♪ ♪ ♪ another tie. order in? next time i drive.

the right-sized nissan rogue. ♪ >> the pope is set to make his first u.s. visit next week, and with huge crowds expected, security concerns are growing. keir simmons reports from the vatican. >> reporter: this morning, new details from the vatican spokesman as the pope gets ready for his first trip to the u.s.

next week. the president is expected to meet his holiness at andrews air force base. pope francis will begin his tour on the 23rd at the white house before an historic speech before congress. meanwhile, in new york, officials are gearing up for an unprecedented security test, the large screens showing many high priority concerns during an exercise led by homeland security. >> this event is going to be the largest security challenge that the department and the city have ever faced. >> reporter: the papal visit coincides with the 70th anniversary of the united nations which will bring 170 of the world's leaders to the city at the same time. >> we can say safely, we've never seen something like this before. and we welcome it, we embrace it, we look forward to it. >> reporter: but the pope has a habit of breaking away to approach people. pope francis say those who know him, does not stick to the script.

>> this pope has made it clear as he's traveled around the world, that's not what he does. for those of us wearing the security hats, it's always a concern. >> he answers to a higher authority. >> that was nbc's keir simmons reporting. still to come, the countdown to the second republican presidential debate is on upon what to expect from tomorrow night's match-up. >> your cnbc market wrap, stock rally ahead of the fed two-day meeting. the dow jones jumps 228 points. the nasdaq gains 54. retail sales rose less than expected last month, climbing .2 of a percent. investors are watching economic data for clues about the fed's next move. and facebook shares finished higher today, the company says it's looking at new ways to let users express emotions, including adding a dislike button. that's it from cnbc, first in

business, worldwide. for these parents, driving around was the only way... ...to get their baby to sleep. so when their windshield got cracked, we can't drive this car they wanted it fixed right... ...so they scheduled with safelite. our exclusive trueseal technololgy means a strong... ...reliable bond, every time. at safelite we stand behind our work... night, night little buddy. ...because the ones you love, sit behind it. that's another safelite advantage. (softly) ♪safelite repair, safelite replace♪ looki had the whitest smile. now i'm going to show up to the reunion with this whole situation. oh please. do what i'm doing. use crest whitestrips! crest 3d white whitestrips... remove 14 years of stains. i knew i recognized that smile. crest 3d white whitestrips the way to whiten. when a moment spontaneously turns romantic, why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use, is the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right.

plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use. insurance coverage has expanded nationally and you may now be covered. contact your health plan for the latest information. rudy and i have a lot of daily rituals. namaste. stay. taking care of our teeth is one of them. when i brush my teeth, he gets a milk-bone brushing chew. just another way to keep ourselves healthy. i'll go change.

misswill turn anan asphalt parking lot into a new neighborhood for san franciscans. a vote for "yes" on "d" is definitely a vote for more parks and open space. a vote on proposition "d" is a vote for jobs. campos: no one is being displaced. it's 40% affordable units near the waterfront for regular people. this is just a win-win for our city. i'm behind it 100%. voting yes on "d" is so helpful to so many families in our city.

it's official. the republican establishment is freaking out over donald trump's front-runner status. trump has been dominating the national polls for months. he's been speaking to massive sell-out crowds around the country. and the establishment has been hoping the donald would simply fizzle out. but it's not happening. last night, conservative leader bill crystal told cnn.com quote, i doubt i'd support donald, i doubt i'd support the democrat. i think i'd support getting someone good on the ballot as a third-party candidate. crystal went on to say, he would support a dick cheney/tom cotton third-party ticket. the tables have turned. earlier this month, trump signed the gop loyalty pledge,

promising he wouldn't run as a third-party candidate. now some republicans are welcoming a third-party run by someone else. the republican establishment has had no problem trashing donald trump. karl rove even called trump a complete idiot. and donald trump has had no problems trashing them right back. >> so george will was a disaster. the guy's a disaster. honestly. another one, karl rove. he's terrible. terrible. he's terrible. he still thinks that mitt romney won. he's still going around saying, i think he won. i saw karl rove on a show the other night and the name trump came up, and you could see, he was like a boiler ready to explode. [ laughter ] i think the guy is a total incompetent jerk. anybody that gives him, karl rove and others, the group of losers, anybody that gives them money, you're losers yourself. doesn't make sense.

>> wow. trump also had some harsh words for conservative fox news pundit charles krauthammer earlier this summer. trump tweeted, quote, one of the worst and most boring political pundits on television is krauthammer. a totally overrated clown who speaks without knowing facts. >> for more, let me bring in jess mcintosh, susan del percio, and josh barrow. thank you all for being here. >> great to be here. >> jess, let me start with susan. how worried is the republican establishment about donald trump? >> i don't think they're worried enough to put dick cheney on the ticket. [ laughter ] >> dick cheney, tom cotton ticket, i mean, what -- this is like feefrd thinking. >> i've seen nimickey mouse and donald duck get votes, so

anything is possible. but this idea of having an independent candidacy is not going to happen with anyone. certainly not with dick cheney, but not with anyone else. it's very expensive. it's very hard to do and you're sure to lose. so no one serious is actually going to do it. >> this is just bluster from bill crystal? >> this reflects the fact that the trump campaign is a huge rift between the republican eleets and the base. donald trump is saying the iraq war was a huge mistake, that people should have realized it earlier. he's saying there are multi millionaires who pay an outrageously low amount of tax. this is not just about republicans nominating a candidate who would do badly in a general election and hurt the party. it's about republicans nominating a candidate who would undermine their policy objectives for the party. so it makes sense they're so angry. but the idea of dick cheney being the person you throw out there, reflects the fact that republicans who have faced this outrage from their base for so

many years have not processed at all what people are unhappy about, and the fact that what republican elites have been doing is not responsive to what republican voters want. >> which is why donald trump is where he is. >> they're getting what they deserve, but they don't understand why they deserve it. >> and jess, react to what susan and josh were just saying. >> i great with josh 100%. this is an existential crisis for the republican party, which is why it was fun to watch donald trump rise, then it was terrifying, now it's delightful again. this is shaking the foundations of the republican party. frankly, they should have seen this coming. the republican establishment has been using the republican base to keep themselves in power for a very long time, using this mantra of government doesn't work, politicians are awful, nothing is ever going to get done that helps you. so let's just attack washington over and over and over again,

and starve the government until you can -- i'm mixing my metaphors. you know what i'm saying. then all of a sudden they get a guy who is espousing that exact philosophy and the base is going wild for it because they don't care about keeping the gop establishment in power. >> i would note that not all of this is something democrats should celebrate. some of this is moving the republican party closer to the center -- >> but can we have it for like a month? [ laughter ] >> one of the things that he tapped into that the establishment was betraying the base on was immigration. we came out of the 2012 election where republicans lost and republican elites in washington basically said, we weren't in favor of immigration enough. >> the gop autopsy made that point. >> comprehensive immigration reform and republicans in the senate provided votes to bring an immigration bill through the senate. it died in the house. that was not what the republican base wanted, as reflected in

trump's rise. it's not really a left-right thing. >> especially when it comes to raising taxes. the republican establishment, we will not raise any taxes ever. all of a sudden donald trump is saying, we can raise it on hedge fund guys. we can raise it on folks who are making billions of dollars, because we want to give the hard working middle class a tax cut. now, that is against the establishment because he's willing to actually talk about increasing revenue through a tax increase. but the republican establishment, that's why their hair's on fire, because they're doing exactly what josh said, with things like taxes and immigration and other issues that really bring in a much broader economic group of folks, and that aren't as turned off to the party. >> well, then let's talk about the politics of trump winning the nomination. if donald trump wins the nomination, will that be an official split between the republican party base and the

republican party establishment? >> well, i think you already have that split. that split's there. >> in a more formal way? >> i'm not going to speculate, because i think that's going out way too far, assuming donald trump will win the nomination of in september of 2015 -- >> '16. like a year out. >> so we're pretty far out from the first primary. so i won't go that far. but the party better wake up and understand that rift already exists and how are they going to be successful? and what is it going to mean to the party as we're going forward looking at 24 open senate seats? granted, some of those are safe, but the fate of the senate is also very close right now, it could go either way. if you have this riff and it's growing and support for trump know its to grow, what happens there? because republicans can easily lose the senate. >> let me show this ad from the conservative group, club for growth. they're going after donald trump, this million dollar ad campaign in iowa. let's see one of these

commercials right now. >> which presidential candidate supports higher taxes, national health care and the wall street bail-out? it's donald trump. >> in many cases, i probably identify more as a democrat. >> trump wants us to think he's mr. tell it like it is. but he has a record and it's very liberal. he's really just playing us for chumps. trump, just another politician. >> in many cases, i probably identify more as a democrat. >> josh, is that ad going to have any kind of impact? >> we've heard these attacks are -- for months. so far it hasn't had an impact. i think what was working for chris christie for a number of years, if you're attitude is right, and if you annoy liberals enough, conservative voters will forgive you for all sorts of things. so as long as you're telegraphing the i'm with you thing. he's been out there saying, the club for growth is another establishment group trying to tear me down to protect entrenched washington interests.

so far it hasn't connected. >> i don't think they're going to actually do it on the issues that they talked about, the flip flop on the issues. but trying to brand him as another politician, that he's just another guy who's giving you a line, just to get you to like him, that could start to seep in a little bit. >> except that's actually not true. he hasn't run for office before. you could do the flip flopping and maybe have a kernel, but i don't see convincing a bunch of people that donald trump looks like everyone else in the field, he just doesn't. >> what's your reaction to the club for growth ad, jess? >> i think it's going to be really exciting to see what happens, whether he gets the am nomination or not, with some of his positions, will he teach the base that they don't have to love tax cuts for billionaires? >> we'll find out. jess, susan, and josh, thank you. still ahead, scott walker's poll numbers hit rock bottom. how he's scrambling to regain his footing in the republican party. that's next.

thanks for calling angie's list. how may i help you? i heard i could call angie's list if i needed work done around my house at a fair price. you heard right, just tell us what you need done and we'll find a top rated provider to take care of it. so i could get a faulty light switch fixed? yup! or have a guy refinish my floors? absolutely! or send someone out to groom my pookie? pookie's what you call your? my dog. yes, we can do that. real help from real people. come see what the new angie's list can do for you.

awe believe active management can protect capital long term. active management can tap global insights. active management can take calculated risks. active management can seek to outperform. because active investment management isn't reactive. it's active. that's the power of active management. the last time senator marco rubio picked up a football, things didn't go so well. but you have to give the presidential hopeful credit for not giving up on the sport. the florida republican has a new video titled catching footballs and fielding questions.

♪ [ bleep ]. >> harder to recover, hillary's e-mails, or tom brady's text messages? >> i think it's been harder to get hillary clinton's e-mails. >> most important preparation for a big game or speech? >> make sure there's water nearby. like right now. >> while the questions aren't tossed very hard at senator rubio in this video, that's not likely to be the case during tomorrow night's republican presidential debate. stay with us. behold, these are two wind turbines. can you spot the difference? the wind farm on the right was created using digital models and real world location-based specs that taught it how to follow the wind. so while the ones on the left are waiting, the ones on the right are pulling power out of thin air. pretty impressive, huh? now, two things that are exactly the same have have never been more different.

ge software. get connected. get insights. get optimized. when you're not confident your company's data is secure, the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at at&t we monitor our network traffic so we can see things others can't. mitigating risks across your business. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. i will take beauty into my own hands...where it belongs. olay regenerist. it regenerates surface cells. new skin is revealed in only 5 days. without drastic measures. stunningly youthful. award-winning skin. never settle for anything less.

the regenerist collection. from the world's #1. olay, your best beautiful scott walker is looking to

regain his footing in the republican race. the governor garners just 2% support in the newest national poll from cbs national news and the "new york times." the governor is on an old strat gain momentum. he's taking his union-busting tactics to a national level. the walter campaign unveiled his plan to give power to the people, not the union bosses. the plan calls for the elimination of the national labor relations board and the elimination of big government unions. walker would also make right-to-work the default federal law and repeal labor regulations enacted by president obama regarding sick leave and overtime pay. scott walker rode a wave of conservative support for union busting in the badger state, and he touts his anti-labor credentials in his book, unintimidated. at 2% in the polls, the walker campaign could become a glorified book tour. but here's the bright side. if walker's new labor plan doesn't help his slide in the polls, it might help him move up the best seller list.

up next, the stage is set for round two. the details of how the candidates are planning to take on trump and each other, next. ♪ ♪ isn't it beautiful when things just come together? build a beautiful website with squarespace. so you don't have to stop., tylenol® 8hr arthritis pain has two layers of pain relief. the first is fast. the second lasts all day. we give you your day back. what you do with it is up to you. tylenol®. started using gain flings,fe their laundry smells more amazing than ever. (sniff) honey, isn't that the dog's towel?

(dog noise) hey, mi towel, su towel. more scent plus oxi boost and febreze. it's our best gain ever! so, i tried depend last weekend. it really made the difference between a morning around the house and getting a little exercise. and i tried a baking class. one weekend can make all the difference. only depend underwear has new confidence core technology for fast absorption and the smooth, comfortable fit of fit-flex™ protection. take your weekend on with a coupon at depend.com who knows, one of these kids just might be the one. to clean the oceans, to start a movement, or lead a country. it may not be obvious yet, but one of these kids is going to change the world. we just need to make sure she has what she needs. welcome to windows 10.

the future starts now for all of us. now that's a full weekend. ♪ join in and guess the five stops they made by tweeting #altimaweekendcontest for a chance to win your own weekend adventure! car radio: with our monday morning traffic report...

welcome back. the second republican debate is tomorrow night. 11 candidates will take the stage at the reagan library in simi valley, california. ten of the contenders will likely do their best to chip away at donald trump's commanding lead. now, cnn changed the qualification rules for

tomorrow's debate. originally, cnn planned to use national poll averages from july 16th to september 10th to make the cut for the top ten spots. but after complaints from carly fiorina's campaign, they changed the criteria. they are now using averages from five national polls between august 6th and september 10th as criteria. so donald trump is in first place, with over 27% support. he's followed by ben carson, jeb bush, ted cruz, scott walker, marco rubio, carly fiorina, mike huckabee, john kasich, rand paul, and in last place, chris christie. the new jersey governor is in 11th place with just over 2% support. christie was grandfathered in from the previous debate rules. christie is struggling to keep his campaign alive in the wake of bridgegate and donald trump's surge in the polls. and last night christie said voters don't care about the food fight between trump and other candidates, and he attempted to steal some of the donald's thunder by doing his best trump impersonation.

>> why when we put on something with jeb bush talking about the economy or scott walker talking about labor unions, why doesn't anybody watch that. >> well, it may be that they just don't agree with or like what they're hearing from most candidates. >> got to put on more chris christie talking about entitlements? >> your ratings will go through the roof. skyrocketing! skyrocketing! you want ratings? christie is ratings, megan. big, very big? how's that? is that good? >> no was it wasn't that good. for me, let me bring in david corn, washington bureau chief for mother jones and an msnbc political analyst and matt schlapp, american conservative union chairman and former white house plit director for president george w. bush. david, let me start with you, who has the most to gain in tomorrow night's debate? >> well, first i want to say, i'm jealous that you got to throw a football on tv. i've never had that opportunity. i hope one day i do. it's on my bucket list. but the most to gain is chris

christie, because he can go from 2 to 4% and double his return. but, you know, right now i think the focus in that may be, will weigh from the republican side or the conservative side, is mostly on jeb bush. i think this whole, you know, high schoolish face-off between donald trump and carly fiorina, you called me a bad name, you didn't like the way my nas looked and all that stuff is not material. because carly fiorina is not going to get in the hunt for the nomination here. she's running for president, commerce position, maybe cabinet position. but really jeb bush is in trouble with his own team, with his own donors, with the republican establishment. whether he takes on trump or not, he just has to show that there's more to jeb bush -- he has to say, i'm here! i'm right here! in a way that convinces people who have been funding his campaign up until now. the establishment is nervous, not just because of trump, but because jeb bush has been the invisible man of this campaign. >> well, matt, can candidates

score points attacking trump or will it backfire? i mean, christie, jeb, parco, rubio, rand paul, these are all people that need to stand out tomorrow night. and one of the ways to do that is to attack trump. >> you know, this whole race started with people attacking trump right from his very announcement. john mccain, lindsey graham, people were saying things like, oh, he's going to bring out the wacko birds, here come the crazies. that's the wrong way to handle this. if you have a policy disagreement with somebody you're running against to be the president of the united states, take them on on the policies. so if it's personal attacks, i think that will backfire. actually, i hope that backfires. what i would love to see cnn do is allow these candidates to mix it up. let's go a little deeper when they say things like, i'm going to build a wall. what does that mean? when they put these proposals out there, let's hear some more details and hear the kacandidat to go after each other. >> david, are you expecting candidates to attack trump tomorrow or will they take the

high road and focus more on policy? >> you know, my dad told me when i was a kid, if you get in fight with a skunk, you come out smelling. trump has shown he has great instincts for belittling and warding out of attacks. we saw others try to do this. and it doesn't really get any traction for them. and every candidate cares most about what they can do for them, for themselves. i'm not sure a personal attack on trump is going to do anything. i think matt's right, these candidates have to figure out a way to stand out on their own without making it about trump. >> really quickly to the both of you, matt and then david, who has the most to gain tomorrow night and who has the most to lose tomorrow night. just give me a name? >> i think ben carson has the most to gain because he's done so well in the polls. people are really listening to him. let's see how he does. >> and who stands the most to lose? david, that's yours. >> i would say jeb bush. i say jeb bush stands the most

to gain and the most to lose at the same time. >> i think scott walker has the most to lose, because he's been -- you haven't heard much from scott walker. it's a moment for him to sit some shots here. david corn, matt schlapp, thank you. i'm jonathan capehart. thanks for joining us. msnbc live continues next. right now on msnbc live, the head of the next gop debate a surprise for donald trump. ben carson crimes within striking distance. and a new poll, will it get ugly tomorrow night? also, i'll talk to democratic presidential candidate, martin o'malley. he weighs in on 2016 politics, and why the u.s. should do more on the migrant crisis. deadly flash flooding. the unimaginable video of what happens after an intense rainstorm. floodwaters washing away cars, roads, and homes. the search for survivors is underway. and a deadly wildfire grows in california, destroying almost 600 homes and killing one woman. very good day to you. i'm richard lui. we're live in san francisco this