changing waters of the arctic takes on new urgency. >> and that was nbc's cynthia mcfadden reporting for us. it looked cold there, didn't it? thanks for watching this hour from san francisco with us. i'm richard lui. "hardball" starts right now. tonight, a change in the political weather. dr. carson is starting to overtake donald trump. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in los angeles for tomorrow night's republican presidential debate at the ronald reagan library. i'm giving the news at the top, donald trump is still rising, but dr. ben carson is rising a whole lot faster. according to "the new york times" cbs poll out today, it's now trump at 27% nationally, ben carson coming up on the outside at 23%.

but as i said, the former neurosurgeon is suddenly accelerating, quadrupling his number in just two months. well, today, trump and carson are making the big news today by administering a shellacking to the establishment republican party we all grew up with. all other candidates remain in the anemic single digits. jeb bush dropped seven points since july according to the times. he's now tied with marco rubios and ted cruz. i'm joined now with steve schitd, a smart guy. the washington bureau chief for "usa today," susan page. and we have ron reagan with us, msnbc analyst. first of all, i've got to go to schmidt. i've got to go to you on this. you're one of the really smart guys out there on the republican party. is your party coming apart? these are just pissant numbers that the republican numbers are greating. it's less than 1 in 16

republicans saying yes to bush. and there's carson with no political history or apparent political skills, a good guy, a smart guy with no ability in this field, way up there, both of them together wipie ining it for the republican establishment. what's going on in your party? is it coming apart? >> it's an expression of absolute and total con tempt from the base of the republican party towards the political establishment of the country, which includes the leadership of the republican party. if you look, chris, in aggregate, the trump numbers, the carson numbers, cruz, the elected anti-establishmentarian and add in huckabee and santorum, two previous winners at the iowa caucuses, you have a number that approaches 60% of republican primary voters, much larger number than the typical establishment elected official side, which is about 40% of the electorate. >> last night, trump drew a big crowd. he's not just getting the good news on television, he's getting crowds in person that can sit home and watch him.

here's 15,000 people in dallas last night, a large part of the hour-long speech focused on the topic of him, donald trump. >> the polls come out and we're really killing it. we are killing it! the silent majority. it's back and it's not silent. so, the debate. i hear they're all going after me. whatever. whatever. you know, i hear it. you know, the beginning, three, four months ago, well, he's just doing this for fun. he's doing this for his brand. i need this like for my brand, okay? i have tremendous energy. tremendous, to a point where it's almost ridiculous when you think about it. now it's time to really start. because this is going to happen. i'm telling you. i'm not going anywhere. >> well, trump returned to a major thing of his campaign, right down there on the border, illegal immigration. that's what got the biggest applause last night, like it or

not. >> we have to stop illegal immigration. we have to do it. we have to do it. we are a dumping ground for the rest of the world. we are. a dumping ground. i don't mean to be disrespectful, but when a man has a problem and he's got his wife or his girlfriend and they move her over to the border for one day, has the baby on the other side of the border -- our side -- now that baby is a citizen of our country for however long the baby lives. hopefully a long -- it's wrong! it's wrong. >> clearly, trump isn't dying. he may be challenged right now by ben carson, another outsider, but nobody on the republican establishment side. i agree with steve. the republican establishment has brown it on illegal immigration. they've never passed a law. they don't want to agree on anything. all people want is some fair treatment, i think most people in this country have been here, illegally or not, for some years, and they want the illegal immigration stopped. they want both things to happen. but that takes two parties to

come together and day don't do it, so this is going on. >> so immigration has been the launching pan for donald trump, but it's not the reason he's become the leadership of all these polls in iowa and new hampshire and nationally. that's a more general feeling that -- >> what steve said? >> yeah. >> the political establishment? >> he's used to working, but i think that's right. contempt for the way things worked, so why not elect somebody who seems outrageous, who will shake things up more than anybody else. >> ron, i don't know whether it is a republican party, as we've learned it, even when it went to the right with your father, even when it became a conservative party, be that rockefeller plus goldwater, just ended up being goldwater reagan party. it was always a political party that had moderate elements and suburban elements. it seems to he those elements, the bush crowd, the bush family and what it represents have been dismissed. 6% for jeb, right now. >> yeah, it is. and that's really the big story. it's not so much donald trump on the rise. i mean, i can't believe, and i

don't think steve schmidt or anybody else sitting around here believes that donald trump is actually going to get the nomination and actually be elected president. but the story really is that nobody who's from the establishment, jeb bush on down, has been able to find any traction. so you've got donald trump, you've got ben carson. and you've got to ask yourself, what happens if these guys, let's say trump, actually starts winning primaries? actually starts getting delegates amassing to him? what is the republican party going to do if donald trump, inescapably, does, somehow, takes the nomination? i think it's really the end of the republican party, in a way. >> let's talk about ben carson, the other guy who's taken the establishment to the cleaners. he has a history of making some pretty wild statements himself about obama, the president, about race, generally, and other topics. let's watch his, what you might call a gag reel, but this is what he believes, apparently.

>> obamacare is really, i think, the worst thing that has happened in this nation since slavery. >> i've been told that he said we're living this a gestapo age. what do you mean by that? >> i mean like nazi germany. i know you're not supposed to say that, but i don't care about political correctness. >> i would ewe the bully pulpit to help people realize what we have in common. what it's been used for for the last several years is to create wars. a war on women, race wars, any kind of anything involving people of two different races. >> do you think being gay is a choice? >> absolutely. >> why do you say that? >> because a lot of people who go into prison go into prison straight and when they come out they're gay. >> obama, you refer to him as a psychopath. what do you mean by that? >> i said he reminds you of a psychopath. block tell a lie to your face

with complete -- looks like sincerity. zpr steve, i don't know what to make of him. his strength is that he's a doctor, a man of medicine. and there he is throwing the term "psychopath" out. i'm not sure where he stands on firm ground anymore. but he's getting votes. explain. >> chris, we're at this moment in time where there's severability between issues and conservatism. and now how we define conservatism within the republican party is who has the most insecendiary rhetoric. and the test of who is a true conservative is who has the most incendiary rhetoric. you've had votes play fighting, kabuki theater repealing obamacare. the republican party's voters thinks the whole system is not on the level. by the way, you look at the democratic party and see this expression in the form of bernie sanders' candidacy. but, look, one thing i would disagree a little bit with susan is, donald trump is not running

on immigration. donald trump is running on making america great again. >> she said that! you agree? that's what she said! she said it wasn't about immigration. it started on immigration and it's a much wider charge. >> what he's saying is what republican voters believe. that barack obama has succeeded in transforming the country, fundamentally changing it. he has wrecked the country. the country is no longer great. but it can be again, if it has the right leadership. and everything that donald trump does is an expression of strength, in his day-to-day actions. whether it's fighting with roger ailes, whether it's not backing down, and instead doubling down, when he lost all of his corporate sponsorships. and i would say to ron and his point, i actually do believe at this moment in time, none of these other candidate of 4, 5, 6% have their destinies within their control. donald trump can be donald trump, but none of these other

candidates can beat him at this point. he is in complete, absolute complete control of the republican battle space. >> what does that mean for the republican party, to have donald trump as the potential standard-bear standard-bearer. >> and what stops him -- susan, you covered this for the front page of your newspaper and your bureau. and later in the show, we taped this a few minutes ago, an our ago with bill mauer, i decide we let the people decide. i want to know when this act's going to die. because it's certainly not dying, donald trump. >> and we keep predicting. we've predicted over and over again -- >> how does he keep doing this? >> this is too much. the last debate, we thought, he went too far after the debate in the feud with megyn kelly, not true, right? he continued to gain ground. although i think -- >> what is the grossout point? you say what he said about women's menstrual cycles or what everybody thinks he meant and you talk about the president being a psychopath, running a

gestapo operation, steve says you have to one-up the other -- how do you one-up that? >> i think we all assume there is a point where it's gone too far. >> what would it be, conceptu conceptually? >> we've been wrong so far, so how would we know. >> i think one of the reasons he does well is our family time is watching "curb your enthusiasm" with larry david. because it's so outrageous, the guy's political incorrectitude, but it is a comedy show. it's not a big broadcast, it's something you have to go looking forward and get on tape and enjoy it. but it seems like trump says all the things your mom tells you flood to do growing up. don't brag about money, don't say rich, and he does it. and people are eating it up. >> they are. and it's important to note that we're still very early in the campaign season here and trump is, what, at 27% of a minority party here.

so this is not -- doesn't bode well for him ending up in the wlous. white house. >> bush is at 6! 6! brother and son of presidents, 6. >> but let's not all fall for the trump strongman act here. at a certain point, you know, the field is going to fair. he's going to have to answer some real questions, and the media will start taking him seriously enough to start posing some real questions to him. and that's when he starts to -- >> well, chris christie learned from us, we cover you on the way up and we cover you on the way down. anyway, many of the republican candidates in 2016 have tried, now that i have you here, to make the case that they are the rightful heirs of ronald reagan, for the library tomorrow night. let's watch them all try to be ronald reagan. >> ronald reagan was a democrat and he was sort of liberal. and i knew him. i didn't know him then, quite. but i knew him and i knew him well. he liked me and i liked him. he was this great guy. >> with respect, my views are

very much the views of ronald reagan, which i would suggest is a third point on the triangle. >> i can think of no three better words to describe my political philosophy, i'm a reagan constitutional conservative. i will remain a reagan constitutional conservative. >> i often joke that i -- i know ronald reagan's birthday because it's my wedding anniversary. but truth be told, i know our wedding anniversary, because it's ronald reagan's birth date. >> ron, do you know what a hermit crab is? that's a being that doesn't have an identity, so it hides in a shell and pretends it's something. these guys are all pretending they are your dad. >> and they've been doing that -- you've been having this conversation with me since i think at least the year 2000 election cycle. >> and i'll keep it up. >> every time these guys want to be my father. i don't remember my father ever trying to be somebody else, first of all. and besides that, it's kind of ridiculous. he left office over a quarter of a century ago. we don't even know what ronald

reagan would really be now as a politician, 25 years later. so i don't know what these people are claiming to be in the first place. >> well, i will say this about your dad, and of course, i disagree with a lot of what he said, you did too. he brought peace between east and west jubs like jimmy carter did between egypt and israel and roosevelt did. thank you, steve schmidt. thank you, susan page, my friend, and ron reagan, of course. and i'll be at the ron reagan presidential library tomorrow night for full coverage before and after the big debate. lots of coverage coming here tomorrow night. coming up tonight, the one and only bill maher is with us tonight. you'll want to hear what he has to say about trump and this whole 2016 crazy race on the republican side. plus, trump's success has the republican establishment running scared, as i said. wall street starting to panic. the money boys. the club for growth is launching a huge attack against trump. the hawkish bill kristol is

promising to vote third party if trump wins the nomination. does he really want hillary to win? can anybody slow this guy, trump, down. and which republican candidate is most likely to succeed tomorrow night? who's going to throw the biggest punch at trump and who will be the most desperate and look that way. we'll preview the big fight at the reagan library tomorrow night, we'll do it tonight. finally, let me finish tonight with the nasty divorce we're watching in the republican party. they're going through it right now between the establishment ring and the wild guys. this is "hardball," the place for politics.

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have you detected what's going on here tonight? i am trying to avoid talking about donald trump. that's really what this is all about so far. and yet, it's impossible. cnn could not be anymore obsessed with donald trump if that missing plane turned up in his hair. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was bill maher, of course, conceding last month that donald trump is tell infant in the room who can't be ignored. as an entertainer and political satirist himself, mahr has made a career of skewering candidates. he says, i don't agree with anything that he says politically, but i do find refreshing as a lot of people do, a gwho comes along and says whatever he thinks. if any other politician, if anybody complains about

anything, they have to walk it back and say they're sorry or that they misspoke. this guy never misspeaks. he never says anything that's true. but he never misspeaks. i'm joined now by the great host of realtime on hbo with bill maher. bill, it's great not to be employed by anybody, right? it's like ann coulter, if you don't work for anybody, nobody can fire you, say what you want. is that the trump secret? >> that's the best part of him. you know, that quote you just read there. talking about how he never has to apologize and never does apologize. i do find that attractive. because i've been in that position myself many times. i mean, i don't agree with much of what donald trump says, but sometimes, when i see him, i think he and i are a little like the detective and the serial killer when the serial killer says, you know, we're not so different, you and i. and the great thing about having your own money is that you don't have to appeal to the donors. the one good thing donald trump is saying is that he's going to

raise his own taxes. and he's going to go after hedge fund managers and stuff like that. that's actually popular, even with republicans. it's the donor class that hates that. that's why you won't hear from the other guys. >> you mean going after carried interest on the equity market. >> yeah. >> i think it's more to the message -- i think the medium is wonderful. you're the expert. you worked at big houses. you've got 5,000 people on a saturday night. this guy is drawing 20,000 people last night in a dallas basketball stadium. what is that about? is there more there than the message? i think there's the show? >> well, also, we have to look a little bit in the moisture irro one, chris. your network cover ed it from beginning end to last night. why are you doing that? >> because people -- well, the same reason people went out to see him, knowing he'd be on tv. they still make the effort to go see him. >> but why cover it, like he's

churchill giving an important speech? have you listened to these speeches? trump is always saying other countries are laughing at us. this is why they're laughing at us, because of what he says and how we are taking it seriously. i mean, he talks about how we shouldn't have teleprompters. please, let's bring back teleprompters, because these are just the brain farts, the stream of conscious ramblings of a guy who over the course of his life has breathed in too much construction debris. it goes from one thing, it's not have been a speech, yet people, i think, what they're responding to is this message that the country has been losing, which is insane, because we're not losing. we're winning, and we have to restore america to what? what it was before obama came along? so we should be restoring america back to where we had 10%

unemployment and the stock market was 1,000 points lower? who is beating us? china? they're beating us? why? because their kids make our iphones? japan? they've been in a recession for like three decades. mexico? this is insane. we're the only country that did well after the financial collapse. >> all that may be true, and i think it is, but i think the reason -- to answer your question why i put him on, why we keep him on, and most networks, is because we're waiting to see how long it's going to last. it's almost like a character on "survivor" or the old 21, how long can herb stemple survive? how long can he go with new material every minute? soon he'll run out of material and begin to sweat. i think we're waiting for that. how long can he do this thing? >> i think he can do it forever. i think this is what he's been doing his whole life. i don't think his speeches are any different than what he did every day before he ran for president. he probably sit ifs a board room with all his yes men and eats

his tuna fish sandwich and starts rambling about whatever runs through his head. he's already repeating his material. he has stuff he says this every speech, he's going to raise taxes on ford motor company. as if the president can unilaterally raise taxes. it's amazing how fact free that party is. that's a big reason why he's doing well. we have ramos ton friday. you'll be with him on the panel and he said to trump, when they had that dustup in iowa, that, why are you building a wall? because 40% of the people who come here illegally from mexico arrive by plane. and then they just stay. and trump's response was, i don't believe it. and this is the essential problem with this party. they don't care about facts. and even when they're presented with them, day donathey don't b them. so when donald trump says things like, we should repeal obamacare

and replace it with something terrific. something terrific, why didn't we think of that. >> there's two guys getting big, he and bernie sanders. i think sanders is much more like vaudeville. the old social message. it's not communist, it's sort of like mellow socialism. it's big activities like we're going to pay for your scholarships, we're ing to pay for college, whar else, we're going to pay for and i would up our benefits around social security. not clear on the financing of the whole thing. how do you think he gets these huge crowds? the other guy et thing the huge crowds? >> well, bernie does have a great message, which is being co-opted now. which is why i don't think he's going to make it. i mean, there are other reasons, obviously. there's ageism and he's jewish and a socialist. i don't think this is going to play in the south. i think that bernie going to wind up being the guy saying, look, i was first with this message. but i don't think people care

about that. i think just like most third party candidates, what he is saying is slowly being coopted. clique clique has moved to the left. i think he forced her there to a degree. and even the republican candidates are talking about income inequality. so at the end of the day, bernie will have a noble campaign, but i don't think it's going to go anywhere. >> let me ask you about the other guy that we're talking about all week, and that's joe biden. in your mind's eye as an american, do you think he would be good for the country if he took the risk of going in at this point? >> well, i like joe. everybody likes joe. he's a noble guy and we all feel for him now because of the tragedy in his family, but i don't think that's a great reason to run for president. this idea that my son whispered to me on his deathbed, run for president, we all embraced like something great. i don't think it's a great reason to run and i don't think it's a great thing to have leaked out to the press. also, i don't think there's any real reason for a biden candidacy except for personal ambition. we already have hillary clinton.

we already have a centrist democrat from the obama administration. i don't know what you're getting really with joe that you're not getting with hillary. you know, it's going to be hillary. democrats really need to rally around -- >> how does shebang her way out of this paper bag called e-mail? how do you end it and change the subject, if they've got this guy taking the fifth. you've got the fact that apparently the 30,000 private e-mails she called private haven't been destroyed. it just seem s like it's a pape chase now for the republicans. they can keep saying, all we want is more information, all the way up through next summer? >> again, i hate to keep coming back to the media, but hillary clinton keeps releasing detailed plans, sometimes really good stuff. nobody covers it. all they talk about is the e-mail. and that's a very hard situation for her. look, she's never been my favorite. she's too much of a hawk for my taste. she's too in the court of monsanto and wall street.

but she's very competent. she's a nice person. i mean, just so mean to poor hillary clinton. i don't know what she has done. i don't even know what the problem with the e-mails is. so what if it wasn't exactly the way it was supposed to be with the servers and the this one and on this one? what did she actually do that was so awful? it's like they get her for parking a mid-sized car in the compact spot. i mean, who cares about all this? at the end of the day, do you think the voters, a year from now -- we forget how early this is. >> yeah, i know -- >> do you think that really -- >> but her numbers are going down. and that's a question -- >> well, her numbers -- >> i would like to see her get her act together too and prevail over all this stuff, and one way you do it is make sure your guys working for you don't take the fifth amendment and you put out everything. you know the basics of pr. give them everything. let them have it all and let them chew on it and it's over with. everybody knew about monica,

everybody knew about it, that's why it was all known and done with it. isn't that what you have to do with politics? >> i guess, was i don't know what there is to get out there. she is the most boring centrist we've ever had in american politics. >> i know. >> i don't think there's anything interesting on her personal server either. this is not chegg rivera in a pantsuit. it doesn't matter -- >> but how does she get out of it? because the press will not lay up on it? "the new york times" is all over this story. all the press is. they want to know what the story is. what was she trying to hide? why was she secret about having a separate server? why all this stuff -- i know it's a rorschach test, but the m ares say, this is big stuff. >> but if it wasn't this, it would be something else. first it was benghazi, which was nothing. now it's this. >> i agree with you on that.

>> now it's this which is nothing. and the republicans will always be say, unless we look, we don't know. we're not saying it's a witch, it's just a little suspicious she won't let us dunk her. >> that's the best answer. how'd the witch thing work, if you sank, you were innocent. it didn't work well for the victim. >> it was a no-win situation. >> exactly. i'll see you friday night. thanks for the honor of coming on. >> okay, chris. >> a wonderful show. "realtime with bill maher." up, next to the "u srss iow a decommissioned battleship where in a few hours donald trump will speak to veterans. this is "hardball," the place for politics. (vo) what does the world run on? it runs on optimism. it's what sparks ideas. moves the world forward. invest with those who see the world as unstoppable. who have the curiosity to look beyond the expected

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border, and the zion national park. ron mott is standing by in hildale, utah, with the latest. >> they're just about winding down the search for tonight, as we start to lose light, because it would become too dangerous for them to continue to search. you can see some search and rescue folks are still on the scene here, assessing the damage. i saw a lot of people coming out of the woods with shovels and things of that sort. a helicopter just flew overhead. but as you mentioned, more than a dozen people dead here and at zion national park. about 45 to 50 miles from here. a very devastating 24 hours, if you will, in the arizona/utah border and into utah itself. melissa? >> nbc's ron mott, thank you. now back to "hardball." welcome back to "hardball." about an hour from now, donald

trump will be delivering his speech aboard the battleship "uss iowa," docked south of los angeles where he will change his views on national security. trump's attendance is expected to draw over a thousand attendees. joining me now, katy tur, who has been following the trump campaign. i've been listening to what trump has been saying when he gets serious about foreign policy, and he says thing like, how do we beat isis? go in there, knock them out, grab their oil, and take it for ourselves. it's not exactly precise. is he going to get precise tonight? zpr we don't foe if he's going to get precise or not. we've asked the campaign if he'll give us any details about what exactly he's going to say for his national security speech. they would not divulge any of those. but in the past, he said said he wants to build a wall. he's also said he wants to make our military strong again. so strong that we won't need to use it any longer. and he's said there will be so

much winning in this country that people will get sick of winning. unclear exactly what he means by a lot of that. details do not seem to be his strong suit when he makes these rally speeches. but, again, he is going to be speaking to about a thousand people. ticket sales from 100 to $1,000. all of the sales will go to make veterans for a stronger america group. none of the proceeds are going to go to the campaign. there is a protest outside. right now, not very well attended. about 40 people saying dump trump. they say it's not appropriate for trump to be holding a campaign rally at an historic war monument or a war battleship, essentially. they think he shouldn't be here. that his message of hate is not appropriate for this venue. >> okay. well-argued by them already. thank you, katy tur at the battleship "iowa." up next, the empire strikes back. the conservative club for growth is the latest to take the fight to donald trump, questioning trump's credentials. in a new ad aimed at taking the down the front-runner.

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welcome back to "hardball." he's been the front-runner now for months and no one has been able to stop trump. and with 24 hours before tomorrow nigh's second big debate, the republican party's establishment wing and neo-cons are growing panicked. "the boston globe" reported that mitt romney's former team has united across various campaigns with a single goal of stopping trump. one adviser told the newspaper that it's a common goal for anyone invested in republicanism, conservatism, and anyone who gives a flying expletive for what we're trying to do here. in true neocon style, bill

kristol is threatening to employee up the party if trump wins the nomination. he tells cnn, i doubt i'd support trump. i think i'd support getting someone good on the ballot as a third party candidate. if he screws up the whole thing, he'll probably end up having hillary elected. he wants former vice president dick cheney of all people and freshman senator and puppetoon, tom cotton, all who work for kristol, would be an excellent independent team. looks like everybody is getting crazy. the roundtable tonight, bernard. sarah lenty is a republican strategist who works with jeb bush's candidate. we'll get to the sanity to jeb bush in a minute. michelle, people thought trump was crazy and says crazy things and so does dr. carson. but, my god, bill kristol talking about bringing back dick cheney and that puppetoon of his, just like marco rubio does what sheldon addison tells him

to do. of course they want puppets to neo cons. >> listening to bill kristol's statement is absolutely aston h astonishing, because remember he is the establishment of the establishment in the republican party. and what have we been hearing for months and months and months? if you have a third party candidate, you'll be handing over the white house in 2016 to hillary clinton. so does bill kristol really believe that dick cheney or someone else, you know, can run as an independent third party candidate, in the event that donald trump becomes the republican nominee and is he truly willing to say that the republican party, as they know it, is over, and hail to the chief and the next chief is hillary clinton. >> i don't know that i would say that anybody in the party that was really paying a little bit attention to what bill kristol says anymore. i think his time probably passed about ten years ago. and i definitely don't think anybody on the republican side

would say, we should get dick cheney back. but, i honestly don't think anybody wants that. but if you look at what it means more broadly for the party and for sort of conservatives is that, even within conservative ranks, where there are a lot of folks that have looked at trump and say, i may not really like him and i may not be down with his positions. he's sort of ramping people up. he's bringing energy to this things. it's okay for now, everyone is now starting to look at it within the party and say, this is not necessarily going away. we thought it was going end to in august or the end of july and he's not going anywhere. and i think that that's starting to concern everybody. >> i think that bill's frustrated, like the majority of americans, and he's looking at this and saying, no way. and to think that he thinks cheney and cotton are a serious ticket as an independent, i don't think is real. but at the end of the day, washington -- people out in the states aren't listening to what the washington elite thinks. trump is an example of that, and so is bernie sanders, quite frankly. the conventional wisdom on this is kind of out the window. >> well, what's going on with

establishment wing? are they going nuts? what is crystal talking about bringing back that sock puppet of his and actually think we're not going to fall for the game those two have been playing. that tom cotton says what kristol wants him to say. like dan quayle did and sarah palin. the use of neocons on idiots has been going on for a long time, hasn't it, sarah? >> so -- i'm going to go back -- i'm sorry. can you repeat the question, chris, apologies? >> just the question of this masquerade haas been going on by the neocons. first of all, dick cheney, to get the record straight one final time we have to bring him up again, he's the guy who said saddam hussein in iraq had a nuclear weapon. he said it even though the intelligence community had said no evidence of such a fact and he presented it a as a fact. and basically, for a lot of people, turned their heads towards that war and he has the nerve to come back again. kristol's part of that. a hawk on every front. why would the republican party allow those voices to rise above --

>> these should not be the voice s -- >> why isn't bush being heard from? >> and i think you'll hear bush say something tomorrow night. i think you'll hear him talk about his record in florida and hear him talk about a real immigration reform plan. you'll hear him talk about immigration reform and i think he'll nail trump on the economy. where trump doesn't have a plan and saying whatever is not the -- you know, having his whatever approach and throwing numbers out there is not going to get trump over the line, where bush has detailed a very specific economic plan. and i think we'll hear that. >> joe, when's the pre-season overage on? i think you made a point that a lot of people in the establishment republican, the real republican party thought it would be preseason, pre-gaming in terms of partying. and yet this seems to be the real game right now. trump seems to be winning the real fight. that's what it looks like to me. >> i think that the establishment is starting to come to terms with the fact that this is not necessarily -- at least right now, going to be an

election, like other normal elections, where people sort of debate each other. they, you know, go at each other over issues and do a little bit of sniping, but they do get into some details. this is very much a, you know, sort of like a -- having a yo mama joke kind of a contest with somebody on the schoolyard right now. so they're look, i think, around to find somebody that maybe they could throw money behind. ben carson is getting a look by establishment money people now in north carolina from the party. he could potentially be somebody they could try to get behind. they're looking for somebody other than trump that can play this game of sort of get out there and have a schoolyard fight with somebody. >> we'll be right back. the roundtable's staying with us. up next, "hardball" goes to high school. we'll see who's most likely to do what they do tomorrow night at the reagan library. this is "hardball," the place for politics. ♪

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well, joining me for full coverage tomorrow night at the reagan library presidential debate, we'll be live from simi valley from 7 to 8 eastern time and back again from 11:00 to 1:00 a.m. with post-debate analysts as well as analysts with top newsmakers and journalists, live from the debate spin room. that's where we'll be tomorrow. this is "hardball," the place for politics. you are looking at two airplane fuel gauges. can you spot the difference? no? you can't see that? alright, let's take a look. the one on the right just used 1% less fuel than the one on the left. now, to an airline, a 1% difference could save enough fuel to power

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we're back with "hardball" roundtable. michelle, john and sarah to a lightning round to make predictions to who is going to standout tomorrow against trump in the debate. a reminder of who is on the early fight card. rick santorum, bobby jindal who is governor of a state, george pataki and lindsey graham all at the little kids table or the happy hour. the main event is donald trump taking on dr. carson, jeb bush, scott walker, ted cruz, marco ruio, john kasich, chris christie and carly fiorina who made the cut this time. john, you say it's scott walker will be the most desperate and the one throwing the punks. >> if you look at what happened when he put out this big union proposal and no one heard about

it. it fell flat, he has been to me at least the most surprising candidate. he's lost all the momentum he had coming into the main primary process. tomorrow night, he needs to show that he can stand toe to toe with a not necessarily fighting with donald trump but engaging people, being energetic so that the money people that are going -- that he needs to support him will be willing to keep giving him dollars. >> he's gone down 13-2 like the wicked witch of the west, he's melting. >> sarah, you say chris christie will be the big slugger tomorrow. >> this is a tough talking governor from new jersey. he's talented. he single-handedly took on the unions and a prosecutor for the majority of his adult life arguing with juries. so i think tomorrow night, you'll see chris christie really bring it. >> do you think he's still in the race? >> i think his chances are slim to none. he's in the debate and i think he'll do a good job. >> nobody's ever called him slim

to none. michelle, is he going to try to be the class bully, trump do his usual thing, intimidating language like the kid in class who thought he could beat up everybody? your thoughts. >> absolutely, why not? that is the reason why he is number one in the polls right now. bill clinton had his sister so ja moment. i was thinking about it today. donald trump has given the country sort of the bull worth moment, you remember warren baity in the movie "but worth." he says it like it is, whether it is bullying the establishment or moderators or his other -- his fellow colleagues that are running for president, he's doing it the american public is laughing it up. he's number one in the polls. there's absolutely no reason for him to change at least at this point in time the way he's been doing it. >> i want you and sarah, starting with sarah, to talk about the only woman on the stage. hillary clinton is the leading democrat. the only woman in this republican jamboree tomorrow night and in this race is the woman who barely made the cut.

they changed the ruse to let her in. i have a sense jake tapper is going to go right to her because jeb knows how to do that stuff over there at cnp. get a fight going on right in the beginning. do you have anything to say to donald trump about what he said about you. your thoughts? >> i think it's coming. she needs to address it and you know, she put out a great ad this week, her execution was incredible. she needs to address it, say it wasn't correct and hit him on the substance. >> is she a second -- a possible vp nominee? i'll be honest, she's making a big run now. does she make sense for vp if she wants to go against hillary. >> i think so. women we represent over half the voting population. she's a smart woman. her communication's been incredible. >> quickly, michelle, do you think she could be on the ticket? your thoughts. >> i think she should be on the ticket, and i think that tomorrow night, if she follows

donald trump or even if she comes before donald trump, if she starts off with that line, look at this face, carly fiorina wins. >> thank you, michelle ber nand and john, thank you again. sarah lenty, we'll have you back many times. when we return, let me finish with the nasty divorce we're watching in the republican party. that's what's going on now. you watch and stick with us. i'll tell you why. you're watching "hardball," the place for politics. vo: today's the day. more and more people with type 2 diabetes are learning about long-acting levemir®. as my diabetes changed, it got harder to control my blood sugar.

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this nasty divorce we're watching the republican party go through. you know, back before the election of abraham lincoln, the republican party was born of a merger of the old whig party of landed wealth with the abolitionists. today is the republican party still has the whig crowd. it's got the red hots champion by donald trump and dr. ben carson. people haven't been identified really as members of the republican party. this is the divorce we're watching right now. look at the polls. a bit more than half the people who do i.d. or vote as republicans are dumping the whigs out the backdoor. jeb bush is getting 6. ers right now. that's less than one in 16 republicans ready to keep their stock in the old party establishment. there's nothing quite like this happening in the democratic party. yes, senator bernie sanders is getting big audiences and doing well. the party is still a political party. it's a question of who gets to

carry out the democratic mission. meanwhile what's happening in had the a part of lincoln, what came together to form a major political party is now clearly coming apart. that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. all in with chris hayes" starts right now. tonight on all in -- >> so the debate. i hear they're all going after me. whatever. whatever. >> a candidate on fire debating in a state that's on fire. tonight, former romney strategist stewart stevenson the movement to stop trump. a report from simi valley on the efforts to keep the reagan library from burning down. and director james cameron on the manmade disaster of climate change. then a hillary super pac goes negative on bernie sanders and the senator's fighting back. and the mayor of new york on the brutal police take-down of james blake. >> what was your reaction when you saw that video? >> my interview with mayor