u.s.s. iowa was supposed to make you think of future commander-in-chief. forgive me if it made you think instead of a bunch of malarkey. "first look" is up next. >> it's wednesday, september 16th. right now on "first look," the political world is counting down the minutes to this evening's second gop debate. can jeb dent the donald? will carly face off with the billionaire? we have a preview. with only seconds to spare a family's heart-pounding escape through a fast-moving california wildfire. facebook is adding a dish that most users will like. defying gravity in a 360 vertical loop. that and much more "first look" starts right now. good morning to you on this wednesday. thanks so much for waking up with us today. i'm betty nguyen. it is a showdown for the 2016 gop candidates. the stage set for the second round of debates in the latest "new york times"/cbs news poll donald trump is still the

front-runner among republican primary voters. but, ben carson is not far behind. jeb bush, mike huckabee and marco rubio are all tied for third place. mr. trump took his campaign aboard the "uss iowa" in los angeles last night, and in his speech he promised to come out with some plans. >> in a very short time we're going to be building up our military, we're going to make our military so big, and so strong, and so great and it will be so powerful that i don't think we're ever going to have to use it. nobody is going to mess with us. that i can tell you. >> well, comedian and political commentator bill mahr talked about trump's popularity on hard ball last night. he commented on trump's speeches saying he chanss topics on the spur of the moment. >> he talks about how we shouldn't have teleprompters.

please let's bring back teleprompters. because these are just the brain farts, the stream of conscious ramblings of a guy who obviously has over the course of his life breathed in too much construction debris. >> meanwhile vice president joe biden is also taking aim at donald trump speaking at a hispanic heritage month reception at the naval observatory mr. biden said trump's stance on immigration would fade and a more accepting stance would prevail. >> this will pass. the trump and that stuff you're hearing on the other team. this isn't about democrat and republican, it's about a sick message. this message has been tried on america many times before. we always, always, always, always, always overcome it. >> trump is expected to be a major target in tonight's debate. nbc's keir alexander has more on what we can expect from the candidate.

>> reporter: here at the reagan library the battle to win one like the gipper with donald trump dominating and jeb bush fading. trump trapping a 2r50e yo of political outsiders. ben carson closing in. and carly fiorina gaining steam. and they now boast a majority of republican support. the early establishment favorite, bush falling far behind. >> i'm a tortoise in the race but a joyful tortoise. >> reporter: jeb now hovering at 6%. trump has barbed bushes aboring. >> i think he's a low energy person >> reporter: while trump is pack them in by the thousands, bush's crowds are far smaller. >> thanks. >> reporter: analysts say bush underperformed in the first debate and is hammered by his last name. he's tried to connect his legacy to reagan's. and reached out to latinos in spanish. >> donald trump -- [ speaking spanish ] >> reporter: still with no traction, a republican insider insists bush needs to stand up to trump. >> bush needs to take the fight

to donald trump aggressively and he needs to take a page out of the donald trump playbook and point out to voters that donald trump isn't ready to be president. >> reporter: bush says this time he'll be ready. >> somebody comes at me, bam, i'll come back at them. don't worry about that. >> reporter: bush's trump card may be his fund raising more than $100 million raised in the first half of the year. his super pac launching a $20 million ad buy. >> proving conservative, real results. >> that was peter alexander reporting. a terrifying look at the wildfires ravaging california. and a family's desperate escape from the valley fire with only moments to spare. a woman spotted smoke in the distance while she and her husband were visiting with his mother. she said they never received the mandatory evacuation order and spent time packing. the danger started to set in when they had to drive through the burning forest to leave. the family's home was destroyed. thankfully they made it out unharmed.

the fire is now just 15% contained. in just a few hours, volunteers will gather to search for the last missing victim in monday's deadly flash flooding on the utah/arizona border. in total 16 people have in that state have died from the flooding there. and now for the first time we're getting a tragic look at what exactly happened, and we do want to warn you that the video that you're about to see can be disturbing. nbc's ron mott reports. >> oh, no, there's two vehicles. >> reporter: it happened in an instant. >> oh, my goodness. oh, dear it went over. >> reporter: raging flood waters and mud ripping across a road, two vehicles filled with three families, 16 people disappearing. swept away, hundreds of yards. three survived, as did others who were trapped. rescued and able to wade away to safety in knee high water. >> right over there -- >> reporter: virginia black shot this video on her cell phone. her concern building as fast as the water rose.

>> at first i was worried about the people in the virginia, wished i could do something. but started to realize that we were in trouble, too. >> reporter: search crews continue the efforts to find the missing as the crumpled remains were recovered shelter for victims one moment, a tomb the next. >> i've lived here all my life and never seen anything like this. >> reporter: a pair of late afternoon storm cells blew over the small polygamist community of hildale utah and its sister town across the border colorado city, arizona, dumping an estimated 2 1/2 inches of rain in just two hours. >> from the top of the peaks near short creek down to hildale is over 1,000 feet. and it's literally just a wall of water rushing into hill dayle. >> reporter: the community is far less known than the man who inspired its creation, warren jeffs, serving a life sentence for child sexual assault. the mourning continues. an unimaginable loss that hit so suddenly, touching so many. >> yeah, i mean it hurts. it hurts my heart hearing about all these people. >> so tragic there. that was ron mott reporting. a frightening accident

in houston to show you. a school bus carrying four charter school students slammed into a guard rail and plunged off an overpass. a 17-year-old female student was pronounce dead at the scene and a 14-year-old girl died at the hospital. two other students and bus driver were injured, as well. police say a driver of a beige buick claims she swerved to avoid another vehicle and then hit the bus. investigators are reviewing security footage from the bus. also growing pressure in western europe. hungary's barbed wire fence along the serbian border is complete and an army is deployed to help police patrol two hot spots. refugees are stuck, piling up at what used to be a main entrance to the european union. they're fleeing violence in their home countries. for many of them, that's syria, where 250,000 people have died during a four-year civil war. many u.s.-backed rebels fighting isis there are also battling the regime of syrian president bashar al assad, who is backed by russian president vladimir

putin and just hours ago assad appeared on russian state television. things are tense. so yesterday the white house left open the fpossibility of a meeting between putin and obama on this issue. meanwhile isis has violently taken control of parts of syria. that's why these new polls are startling. according to british market research firm orb more than one in five syrians in syria believe isis is a positive influence on the country and 81% of syrians believe isis is a foreign or even american-made group. now we're going to switch gears to something a little bit lighter back here at home. a life size hot wheels in action. for jaguar's 80th anniversary, a driver zoomed an f-pace model vehicle up and around a vertical loop. you're watching a world record here folks. the first time in history a production car has done this trick. now it's not easy. imagine how this feels, 6 1/2 times normal gravity while the car goes around. the driver terry grant said he had to train for two months to make sure his body was ready for

all those gs. all right nine minutes past the hour. we're going to move on to business and landon dowdy is here. >> i hope he was wearing a seat belt. hewlett-packard experts to cut up to 30,000 jobs from its enterprise business which is being spun off from its pc and printer operations in november. that's roughly 10% of the workforce. hp says the cuts will be global but isn't elaborating. the enterprise business offers it services and support to corporate customers. and facebook gives the thumbs up to a dislike button. ceo mark zuckerberg says the company is working on the feature. he says he resisted the move for years but since users want a better way to express empathy for posts than just the like button. fedex is raising shipping rates for most packages by an average of about 5%. the new rates go into effect in january. u.p.s. has yet to respond to the move but earlier this year both companies started charging to ship boxes based on size and

weight. betty, back over to you. >> oh, the prices just keep going up, don't they? >> yes, ma'am. >> thank you. >> now to sports. longtime usc football fan jake olson is full filing his lifelong dream joining the trojans football team even though he's been completely blind most of his life. he has been working for six years to learn the position of long snapper. usc's head coach said some day olson will snap in a game for the trojans and when that day comes it will be awesome. indeed it will. game of thrones villain the mountain who is also europe's strongest man took on two-time world arm wrestling champion at 6'9", 419 pounds he was no contest. he easily defeats him with both his left and right arm. no problem at all. okay. straight ahead republican presidential hopefuls, they converge in ronald reagan's backyard but can any of them actual capture the gipper's spirit? let us know what you think about tonight's debate. sound off on our facebook page. we're back in three minutes. just might be the one.

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welcome back to "first look." check on your weather for your wednesday. heavy rain moving in to areas around west palm beach this morning on and off fort lauderdale, miami. that's some of the worst travel weather early today. we're going to see a pretty nice day. we're in a very warm weather pattern across the country. exception today being florida with the clouds and showers. this september now that we're halfway through it we're in historic territory. the great lakes to the northeast, all of these sites, boston, albany, syracuse and new york are on pace for the warmest september ever recorded and some of these records go back 150 years. new york city is running about 4 1/2 degrees higher than the hottest of all time. so it's going to be hard not to break the record in new york city. the rest of the midwest is very warm, too. st. louis, des moines, minneapolis and chicago all on pace for the warmest september ever and today we're just adding to these numbers with 80s and 90s. widespread, betty this looks like a map that you'd see in

july. at least we don't have the humidity. but it's unusually warm. >> i'm not going to complain. it was chilly on monday. i will take this. thank you so much. how many times will the gop candidates invoke the name ronald reagan at tonight's debate? oh, my goodness. you know it's going to be a lot. the former president has become a party hero. but, would he have fit in with today's gop? msnbc's political correspondent reports. >> ronald reagan. >> ronald reagan. >> ronald reagan. >> i was a big fan, a very big fan of ronald reagan. >> reporter: today, republicans make the pilgrimage to debate at the reagan library in simi valley. in the state where reagan acted -- >> bedtime for bon zoe. starring ronald reagan. >> reporter: and then governored. he's become a republican legend. here in california his once grand old party is all but extinct. no republican carried the state since reagan's re-election and the last one to win statewide was another actor turned politician. >> i'll be back. >> reporter: but the gop hasn't been back since.

democrats dominate sacramento. meg whitman lost her race for governor in 2010 and 2016 presidential candidate carly fiorina lost badly in her recent bid for senate. >> that's a generational issue, honestly. people are beginning to figure out that the progressive policies that democrats in that state have pursued over decades are literally destroying people's lives. >> reporter: republicans argue that a fiscally conservative but socially moderate candidate could help the party come back to power in california. but even the state's top republican in washington has to admit it's an uphill climb. so you still maintain that it's not all that lonely to be a republican in california? >> well, it's lonely. and when you throw a party you know everybody in the room. >> reporter: but the national gop brand can be a problem in california. and the presidential race is dredging up an issue that many say poisoned the well here in the first place. >> you point to a single factor, it would have to be the latino -- you know, the way latinos are turning against the republican party, the way

republicans damage themselves with latino voters. >> reporter: it's a reminder for all the reagan romance he might not have fit so well in today's republican party. >> i believe in the idea of amnesty for those who have put down roots and who have lived here. >> reporter: contrast that with front-runner donald trump. as a pro-immigration group is doing in this new ad. >> they're bringing crime. they're rapists. if i'm elected, they're going to be out of there day one. >> reporter: but that hasn't stopped trump from invoking ronald reagan's name to defend his own evolving views. >> well i think they have a point from years ago. but they also have that same point with ronald reagan who was a democrat absolutely with a liberal rent and ronald reagan became, you know, not only a republican, but a pretty conservative republican. not the most. but a pretty conservative republican. >> that was msnbc's kasie hunt. well the debating game, obama tuning out, and democrats on defense. politics is next.

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faced with horses that needed feeding and a texas drought that sent hay prices soaring, the owners had to act fast. thankfully, mary miller banks with chase for business. and with greater financial clarity and a relationship built for the unexpected, she could control her cash flow, and keep the ranch running. chase for business. so you can own it. time now for your hump day edition of scrambled politics. heading into tonight's gop debate we know at least one person who probably won't be watching. >> i would not anticipate that the president will watch the debate. >> why is the president not going to watch the debates tomorrow night? >> i guess because he feels like he's got better things to do? >> that's right. straight from press secretary josh earnest. in "usa today," democrats, they blocked senate vote to reject iran nuclear deal for the second time. hasn't even been a week and democrats have come to the

defense of the deal twice now. majority leader mitch mcconnell said that the debate will continue. >> some of these people have marched incredibly for 1,000 miles. >> democratic presidential candidate bernie sanders joined civil rights demonstrators for the last part of the naacp's journey for justice march yesterday. gathering marked the 50th anniversary of the voting rights act that started in selma, alabama, and ended on the steps of the lincoln memorial. twitter has launched a new tool starting now you are just one tweet away from being able to donate to the presidential candidate of your choice. and on the show host jimmy fallon took a page from the dating gamg and created the debating game. take a look. >> candidate number one, being in a relationship takes a lot of effort and experience can help. as a political outsider do you think you have the experience to lead our country? >> first of all, i got to say i love this wall. isn't it a beautiful wall?

it's fantastic. i built this wall. and i got mexico to pay for it. >> candidate number one that's great but are you going to answer the question? >> no. >> that's your morning dish of scrambled politics. now to a guy who will answer the question, let's bring in jonathan allen, chief political correspondent for vox which has a partnership with nbc universal. good morning, jonathan. >> good morning. >> let's start with jeb bush. he says he's ready to come out fighting in this debate tonight. does he have it in him? or is this, you know, actually going to be just a little too late for him, since donald trump is really surging in the polls? >> i think it's hard to say that it's too late for any candidate who's raised over $100 million to claw back in to the race. >> good point. >> but, i would say, this is a moment that i think a lot of people will be watching to see how jeb bush responds to the

taunts that donald trump has thrown his way, calling him low energy. which you know is you've mystic, sounds like he's saying he's got low "t," if you remember those commercials. i think it's a big moment for jeb bush to show that his supporters and maybe some folks that aren't supporting him now that he's got a little more energy. >> you bring up a really good point. why has jeb bush's campaign been so lackluster? especially after raising so much money, has he simply played it too safe? >> well, i think it may be a little bit of playing it safe. i think there's certainly some fatigue with the bush family within the republican party. particularly among republicans who want to make the argument that there have been too many clintons on the political stage. i think a lot of them see, you know, that as a strong argument for them going into the general election and jeb bush would have a hard time making it, having had a brother and a father in the presidency. >> is the biggest challenge tonight from moderators going to be trying to really get some specifics from donald trump before he switches topics and reminds us of how great he is?

>> yeah, i think that is going to be a huge challenge for the moderators to pin him down on things. look, dond trump's not going to be pinned down on things he doesn't want to be pinned down on. one of the great successes that he has had is getting his supporters to sort of believe that if somebody's trying to pin him down on specifics, that they are somehow trying to undermine his candidacy. but we'll see. i mean, i think one of the things to watch tonight is the ability of donald trump and ben carson, the outsider candidates, to really talk about policy. >> ben carson, carly fiorina. those are going to be other ones to watch tonight. it's going to be good. all right, jonathan allen, thanks so much for joining us today. >> take care. >> just ahead the latest transplant surgery that will blow your mind. plus folks, don't try this at home. a bone chilling ride down the side of a dam. to the used car buyer who's worried about getting taken for a ride... don't worry. the only rides you'll get taken on at carmax

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leading the news from the huffington post first human head transplant date officially set for 2017. listen to this, a russian computer scientist who suffers from a muscle wasting condition is volunteering for the procedure in hopes it will give him a second chance. so his head will be attached to a healthy body from a brain-dead donor. now, we have no idea if this is going to work but a team of italian and new york surgeons plan to carry out the $15 million operation in china. video has gone viral of a recent death defying stunt in slovenia. a competitive mountain biker decided he wanted to ride down a nearly 200 foot dam. cameras caught multiple angles

of the feat as the adrenaline junkie bikes down the almost vertical wall and then he slams into the water below. that is amazing. gives me chills. all right i'm betty nguyen, this is "first look" on msnbc. "way too early" starts right now. the death toll rises from those flash floods in utah as we see the exact moment two vehicles were washed away carrying more than a dozen women and children. plus, debate night. donald trump better be ready for war as candidates and conservative groups ratchet up their attacks. >> trump wants us to think he's mr. tell it like it is. but he has a record and it's very liberal. he's really just playing us for chumps. trump, just another politician. >> and personal foul. another incident of excessive violence on the football field after a high school player turns an opponent's helmet into a weapon. it's 5:30 on the east coast, 2:30 out west, this is "way too

early." good morning, it's wednesday, september the 16th. i'm louis burgdorf, we begin in southern utah where the search will resume this morning for four people still missing after those deadly floods. it comes as the death toll continues to rise in the small polygamist town of hildale. we've now learned that four hikers are also among the dead. killed after becoming trapped inside a narrow canyon. that comes after monday's tragedy when a wall of water swept away a van and an suv carrying three women and 13 children. those dramatic moments caught on camera. >> oh, no. there's two vehicles. >> we're going to get wet.