here. >> whatever. >> whatever. >> i don't know. whatever. >> no. >> is it all or nothing f >> it is a here. >> whatever, whatever. >> good time of year. >> it's a beautiful time. >> i'll have to get a one. >> hi. >> hey. >> it is the two of us here. >> so, i think -- i don't figure things out much but i figured something out last night. i'm proud i got it so i drove all the way in to tell you guys. so i'm watching megyn kelly and she's so mad. >> all right. >> and she's got a presidential candidate and dave macintosh, a

guy we like, and he's talking about this new add campaign they're running against trump and they're going to go after. >> it's ridiculous. >> they're calling the worst kind of politician. >> i had some stuff to do here, but. >> people who give money, you run this add against donald trump and you're feeding a p prop

propetual machine. >> willie and i have three of those. >> stop jamming stuff in there. >> that's probably. >> nothing comes out. >> you knew when they heard they were going to attack trump that trump would turn lemons into lemonade and it's the most fabulous lemonade you're tasted before. it will make your head spin. >> i have stuff to do. >> we're going to show this clip real quick. >> which presidential candidate supports higher taxes and the wall street bail out? >> in many cases i probably identify more as a democrat. >> he wants people to think he's mr. tell it like it is but he has a record and it's really liberal. he's playing us for chumps.

>> the growth is a phony outfit and came to my office a few months ago and asked for a million dollars. right after i told them no they came out with a negative add. >> as i said, shove the play dough in there and give donald more. everybody plays right into it. >> he's been able to do this to almost everybody whose done this. he's got the upper hand on all these issues and when the club for growth comes after him, we can play the add but he attacks them and continues to do what trump does. >> what everybody hears, it's peanuts. he tweets out the letter and wins. the motion machine. >> he's in the position of

having every knock being a boost. >> every one. >> so does the republican party. >> whose ever seen this before where every time somebody gets attacked, he gets attacked he can turn around and have it work to his advantage? >> do you think there's a point where these adds are going to run iowa. they're going to say wait a minute he does want to raise taxes, he did support the democrats. >> they've already factored that in. they know what he said back then but you know, it doesn't matter. he's an anti politician. look at my brother. he's extraordinary conservative. nicole wallace's father. they factor it in. what's the difference between a guy whose changed his position through the years and a republican that has lied to you for 25 years saying elect me and i'm going to balance the budget and get us out of wars and not

engage in foreign venturism. they had rather have the guy that talks to them straight than the guy who lied to them for 25 years. >> it's the trump party. it's going to be rebranded and fabulous. >> bill crystal. >> bill crystal has no choice but to talk about that because he said trump wouldn't win and had no chance. anybody who ever came on our set except for remnick and now he has to say. >> i like david a lot. i would like for david to come back. >> we may not have been polite to you that time you said trump was irrelevant but mika was in a bad mood, i was in a bad mood. >> back to bill crystal, our

friend. >> can you imagine what they wore? >> it wasn't all white. >> it was all orange. >> back to our friend bill crystal. bill crystal, you need to come back and we need to talk. he's on tomorrow. >> tonight's second republican debate. >> again, the trump party show down in semivalley. it's going to be a beautiful show down. donald trump will once again be centered stage flanked by jeb busch and ben carson. the four taking part in the earlier debate might find themselves in the mine event as well. the rules allow for candidates to respond to sharp points made earlier. meaning trump might have more critics to take on.

trump has led every republican pole taken including the one released yesterday. that shows his tightest lead since july, just four points over retired neuro surgeon ben carson. >> i saw ben carson last night on megyn kelly. i would love for him to operate on me and i would love to go to church with him but i have no idea how i could vote for the guy. it would be like me going around and talking about being a neuro surgeon. >> it doesn't explain a 17 point jump in the last month. >> his views on real issues are frightening. >> they're frightening and uninformed. you're going to have to ask him got you questions to get answers that are factually wrong.

>> doesn't that get you down to what is going on in the republican party? >> you know what. >> i told you it's not to republican party anymore. >> the republican base loves the washington establishment. the republican establishment feels the trade and load them. they had rather have ben carson and donald trump than anybody who has any experience governing. >> more than 50%. >> every pole over the past couple of weeks. >> i am actually going to ask alex to but nb5 up next. here we go. which candidates voters find the most trustworthy? 81% of all primary voters said

they think biden is honest and trustworthy and 64% said the same about hillary clinton. i also think biden can do something no other candidate can do. the 6-10 democrats want biden to run for president in 2016. it comes after his attack against donald trump. here is the vice president yesterday at a hispanic heritage event. >> i don't want anybody to be down right now about what's going on in the republican party. i mean this sincerely now. i'm being deadly ernst about this. i want you to remember not withstanding the fact there's one guy denigrating an entire group of people appealing to the baser side of human nature, working on this notion of

zenaphobia in a way that hasn't occurred in a long time. i walked out of the house just as trump was talking on the television. folks, this will not prevail. this will not prevail. this will pass. the trump and that stuff you're hearing on the other team and not just, this isn't about democrat/republican. it's about a sick message. this message has been tried on america many times before. we always, always, always over come it. >> he's got a little more spring in his step doesn't he. >> an adult. >> an adult who can go out and talk and is not afraid to answer questions because he hasn't created a web of problems for himself. >> correct. >> he is actually, looks free. i thought he did good.

>> one of the interesting things in that pole is that on immigration, the american public is not with trump. 58% of americans think that illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay here and another 6% think they should be able to apply for citizenship. you're dealing with a portion of the republican party that feels the way you were describing earlier. >> the republicans don't think there's going to be 11-12 million immigrants deported. it's insanity. >> it is. >> you know what was really interesting just in the past few seconds we've been watching the two clips, the sound muted, the vice president followed by donald truch. could we show those two again? there's the vice president of the united states speaking quiet honestly and there we have this guy. >> you know what, right now, that's what americans want.

they're mad as hell and they're not going to put up with it anymore. they feel like the government has betrayed them through the years. >> to me, that's the race right there. >> it could be. >> maggie and a couple of other people have a piece today that trump is becoming more disciplined as a dacandidate. he stays and works the rope line afterward. it's almost like it's occurred to him like wow, this could happen. this is real. >> i think he is. >> a new pole once again has hillary clinton's lead slipping both nationally and statewide. the poles shows clinton in first place and 20 points clear of the rest of the democratic field but bernie sanders has cut her lead in half since august. it comes after a pole in new

hampshire shows sanders in the lead. sanders spoke to andrea mitchell yesterday and said this about his search. when we began this campaign, the poles had us at 3%, 5%, 80-85% of the american people didn't me who bernie sanders was yet alone what i'm trying to do. and the views that we're aspousing, the changes we want to see. the more the american people come familiar with the issues that we are fighting for, i think you're going to see us do better and better in the weeks and months to come. >> all right. so what do you think about all these poles? >> i got to say on the democratic side hillary clinton has slipped a lot with independents, democrats. she's lost 11-12 points in every pole we've seen over the past months. the poles don't matter this early. they're starting to matter, i

think, steve over the next three or four weeks. it's one thing to slip from 60 to 50 to 40. once she gets in the 30s that's when you're going to see democrats pushing john kerry and biden and others into the race. don't you think the next three to four weeks, if she loses as much the next month as the past month, it's a wide open race. >> sure, you can't keep drawing a line that goes down and down and down forever. at some point it's got to stop and stabilize and go down. if you go back to 2008 she was leading obama at 17-18 points at this stage of the race. she's got to somehow stop the bleeding. >> how does she do it? i know you're a supporter of hillary. >> what i've said consistently for the last six months, i think the campaign is doing it, she just needs to open up and turn

over the server and answer all the questions. as chris christie said on sunday after one of the shows after his bridge gate thing he spent an hour and 50 minutes sending questions from the reporters. >> what do you do when someone who set up the server pleads the fifth? >> that is a problem. i plead the first in that situation. i would tell anybody as an attorney to plead the fifth. there is an active fbi investigation going on and it is far more aggressive than its been portrayed in the national media. everyone in washington d.c. knows that. i think that's the biggest problem with hillary clinton holding a press conference because there is an active fbi investigation going on. so active they're even telling

agencies that they're not allowed to answer basic questions because those basic questions that they answer could run a foul of an fbi investigation. >> she has done interviews, the one with andrea mitchell the other day, nbc news the other day. she has done interviews. the more of those she does, the more the questions start to peter out. >> here's the problem. >> the problem with those interviews if she's going to do it, she's got to make sure that the information that she gives the american people is not going to be contradicted in a month or two. just like the u.n. press conference. unfortunately, when she talked to andrea mitchell, she said things that aren't going to be contradicted in the coming weeks or months. for instance, if the state department authorized me to do that. >> that's not true. i know for a fact that's not

true. that's going to be contradicted in the next month or two. if she's going to do this. >> well, she is the state department. >> well, that is the only way that that will be true if she talks about what the meaning of it is and then that causes another problem. >> why don't you just say it. >> you know, steve eluded to this. the huge issue, a huge problem in her campaign is she gave a tough speech on iran about 10 days ago. go find it in terms of coverage. no one can see what she stands for through the fog of this e-mail controversy and there are more e-mails that's going to become public. it's going to be the drip treatment over the next 5-7 weeks. >> and by the way, the state department is consumed with a billion requests and they can't

get things out because if they try to rush things out then you have the sbel agencies i'm agreeing with mike there's going to be the drip, drip, drip process and along with that you find out some of these got into google and other very public servers. >> of all the e-mails that's come out, what have we actually learned that somehow changes what hillary clinton did or didn't do? what did we actually learn? >> it's not republicans.

it's the fbi, the new york times. >> they have released thousands of pages of e-mails. out of the thousands of pages, what have we learned about the way hillary clinton conducted? >> what we've learned according to multiple sources inside the entail agencies is that she wrecklessly handled classified information that was sent to her and that she sent out. even if it wasn't marked at the time when she sent it out, we found out that the sbel agencies found it was so sensitive they went back and back dated it. >> okay. so we haven't learned anything about the policy point of view.

that is the issue that is bothering. >> yes. >> i want to make sure i understand what we're talking about. >> i've learned something else. i've learned my feeling is most people don't care about the content of the e-mail. they don't care about the e-mail issue. they've linked the e-mail issue to hillary clinton, bill clinton, to the past and the weight of it, the weariness of it has caused people, some people to turn away from their candidates. >> i totally get that and i hope the clinton campaign gets that. that's why i was saying that i was saying before. all i'm saying is everybody said we want to see these e-mails and all the things happen in the state department.

i get briefings and they give me stacks of classified information. what would happen if i got the classified information and started passing it out? >> ask john deutsche. >> if i had taken all the classified briefings and just threw it down, somebody scoops it up, it may not look like it means anything to you, you, you or the person that picks it up but it means something to the entail agencies that classifies it for a reason. >> i understand it and i think you said this, none of it was classified at the time. >> wait a second. if i talk to a foreign leader about the movement of troops and i type that. >> by the way, the drum strike is going to be coming in next week at such and such. i send that. that's not classified at the time because i just sent it.

i was just wreckless. i used classified information in a way that shouldn't have been classified. there's no agency that could classify it because i jus created it. the second i get a hold of it, they'll say holy crap, classified, no. if i'm creating an e-mail that by its very nature is classified and i know it's classified and going through an unsecure server, it won't be marked classified at the time. i don't have little trolls on my should shoulder. no. you like that voice? >> so there's other democrats. >> the argument is she appears to some to be trustworthy, paranoid, to be a clinton who

believes the rules that apply to everybody else doesn't apply to her and i think a bigger issue for me is if anybody else had done this in washington d.c. in the government, their security clearance would be stripped today. they would be, they would have to hire a criminal defense lawyer and they would be going through at least two or three years of held. if you don't believe me, ask deutsche, ask a lot of lawyers that nobody knows the name of who accidentally had clients give them classified information. is that yea or nay? >> okay. we have to go to break. i don't know where this is going. >> it's fair to ask and a lot of people want to know the answer, who decided which e-mails were submitted or deleted? did that person have security clearance? she said it was yoga and

chelsey's wedding. who looked through those e-mails? >> two parts to the question. did the one person who made those decisions have security clearance? second point i would make as joe well knows having been a litigator, in any litigation, even if you're the defendant or a party at interest, you and your lawyers decide which e-mails to turn over. there are protocols and rules of the road and codes of ethics. you don't turn everything over to the other side in a case. >> i can tell you as a lawyer and also as somebody that served in the armed services and had the security clearance, top security clearance, i would never in a million years have a top secret and we had a lot of bri of briefings on al qaeda, i would never take the classified documents and go to a lawyer in

pensacola and say hey buddy, can you hold this in our file. it's not just fine, i would be arrested by the fbi immediately. this is what hillary clinton did. david kindle carried a thumb drive with classified information. >> i know. >> any other lawyer would be investigated and probably on his way to jail. i think this is the biggest problem. i know we're going way over here. >> way over. >> he keeps going. he keeps going. he keeps going. >> okay. >> would you as a defense lawyer if you were in a lawsuit just say to the other side here's my client's entire e-mail server, all their personal e-mails, yoga whatever, you decide which ones you want for the trial. >> you know what any other lawyer would say, i call the fbi. i call the state department and say my client wants me to look

at her server, i think there's classified information here, can i get clearance to look at this in the capacity as her attorney? there's no way a lawyer without security clearance should go through the server and look at this. the fact that the federal government is not raising these points more aggressively is staggering to everybody in the community. >> i don't know if they are or not. you realize you're talking about the core of this case. >> oh my lord. >> who presided over the disperse l of the e-mails, the destruction of the e-mails, whatever you want to call it, and who provided orders. >> so there's elizabeth warren, joe biden, john kerry, lots of other people. >> hillary clinton will not answer that question and she

never has and she always put it off on other people. >> by the way, alex, says that does it for morning joe this morning. stick around, the run down is next. >> we have to go to break and we will now. still ahead on morning joe. >> i thought that was good though. >> great. you did a great job. we're going to go live to the reagan, by the way, i said nothing by the way, people on twitter. i've said nothing. so stop. we'll go life to the reagan library in california for a preview of tonight's debate. >> look at that suit. can somebody wear a khaki suit, seriously. >> we're branding the whole thing and it's going to be a beautiful party. on tomorrow's show presidential candidates carly fiorina and christ chris christie joins us. you're watching morning joe. we'll be right back.

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. i don't know if we have time but let's try to look at the morning papers. the iran nuclear deal, this time to vatican ahead of the pope's speech. the vatican's foreign minister said in a statement he hopes the deal acts as a step towards greater stability and security in the region. this statement represents the strongest support of catholics to date. a new report by the new york times details, just whose at the center of the investigation involving the war on isis. they allege it was their superiors within u.s. command to change an optimistic picture about the war against the islamic state. it involves a number of topics including the readiness of iraqi security forces and the success of the bombing campaign in iraq and syria. one told the new york times the complaints involved the highest ranking u.s. officials in the

unit and senior intelligence officers are flipping everything on their head. wow. >> we've all, the country, the world has suffered through the faulty intelligence and now we have apparently the tooling and tampering with blens by blens operatives as they feed intelligence from various intelligence agencies. the intelligence estimate is altered before it's presented to the president of the united states. that's a very, very dangerous story. >> all right. the opinion pages are next with the washington post and alex from the valley. stay with us. [ music playing ] hey! let me help with that. oh, thank you! [ laughing ] [ music continues ]

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add. we have an exclusive first look at a new campaign add from senator ted cruise that begins airing in the early voting

states today. take a look. >> there's a scorpion in the desert. since it seeks our destruction, isn't it time we recognize the scorpion for what it is before it strikes again. >> i'm ted cruise and i approve this message. >> with us now is the writer for the washington post jonathan. >> and from california the co-founder of the bipartisan. >> an exclusive look at ted cruise's commercial and for republicans, especially older guys like you and me, we get

that commercial because we remember the bear. >> a bug. i expected donald trump to come in and stomp on that thing with a big boot. what a pitiful effort. >> i take it you don't like it. >> other than that, it was good. >> ouch. >> what do you think, john. >> willie and i were just talking about the 1984 add. i remember when it came out. i was a kid and i remember thinking wow, that was really good. wow. ronald reagan. to watch the ted cruise add immediately after watching the reagan add. you can't help but feel is this a parity especially when the cowboy boots come in at the end.

>> i felt the boot coming in made the best point. we didn't know in 1984 what the bear was. we thought the bear could destroy us. now we find ourself in this position where we actually are in size the boot compared to the scorpion and yet, we keep saying the scorpion is the j.d. team. you can put a jersey, a colby bryant jersey on them. i think donald trump plays into this very well. a lot of americans why are we allowing isis to cut off american's heads that's a part i

actually relate to. >> i think the attempt, perhaps, was noble. certainly, the uncertainly in the world, the danger in the world, problems are world away and end up on the doorstep in nano seconds, that's great. but sequels most often don't do the big box office like the big movie. this is imitative and junior league. the best part of the commercial is ted cruise is not in it. i just don't think that's going to advance the ball. >> we're going to put alex down as undecided on ted cruise. that's pretty harsh. >> i don't think it was as bad as everyone else at the table. most are not watching the add and comparing it.

>> people get what that means. i don't think it helps ted cruise. >> what do you expect from the debate tonight? >> well, by the way, just to that last point why are we at the reagan library? i think people, republicans, especially do remember what's going to happen tonight? 11 candidates still on a crowded stage. this is their second first debate. it's going to be hard to distinguish yourself this evening. can carly grow to be more of a mirror than hillary clinton and become a trump business outsider and more stable and trusted? can the governors be who they are? agents of change in their states. hey, we're going to go to washington and bring real change

there. that's the story for tonight is there then else running for donald trump? >> jonathan, what are you looking for tonight? >> i'm looking to see what the folks lower down in the poling, what they do to try to distinguish themselves and try to get attention and be the story coming out of this debate. >> i think the person harmed the most by donald trump being in the race is governor christie. we all around this table before trump came on the scene talked about how governor christie was the big guy on the stage, the guy who told it like it is, the guy who, the republican governor in a blue state who did tough things and said things to people that you would never hear from a politician before.

>> i think carly is the story to watch. >> i do too. i think the add, look at this face add. >> it wasn't hers but it was fantastic. also, following up on chris christie, iran cli enough he's at the top of his game. >> he's better. >> he's better because he got the held beat out of him and come out the other side a better candidate. the question is, is it really fair? does he connect? >> allegory after he lost.

>> the question will be whether he or any of the others can break through. >> for chris christie, a strong candidate but he's kind of had his ride and descended and resurrection is hard work. it took jesus three days. that's going to be very tough for him to change that debate. the good thing is tv adds. they're going to have a way to distinguish themselves not just in a debate with 11 other candidates. >> alex, thank you so much. good luck tonight. only thing i can say to chris christie is do not use jesus as your example. hard to live up to that standard. i think you should stick to john mccain, 2008. >> don't just walk off. >> jonathan, stay with us. >> john mccain, i remember. i told this story before. john mccain was finished.

i'm flying out of pensacola when morning joe just started and my dad goes joey, stop overlooking mccain, he's coming back. he's coming back. mccain was at 4% in the poles. i'm like oh my good lord. dad, you were right. how do you explain the refugees washing up on the shores? >> we'll be right back. ♪ i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business...

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commander at the school of law and diplomacy retired four star navy admiral. good to have you on board this morning. first question, where do these people go as the borders slowly get closed and ultimately, the question we've been asking all day yesterday, could this have been avoided if we acted in syria sooner? >> i think for starters, mika, this is palliative what we're doing. we're trying to help in europe with the flow of refugees. the problem is at the source. the problem is in syria. i think we did miss a turn there. we got to play the ball from where it is on the field. what's happening now in europe is you're going to see the militaries be more involved as the scope of the problem increases. there are real challenging times ahead for our european

colleagues. >> good to see you this morning. i'm holding this up for the viewers, there's a picture on the front page of new york ti s times. whack be done at this point if we put in the rear-view mirror for a moment. what can the united states do today? what active roll should it take? >> we should build a coalition, we're doing that and working on it. we have 40 nations involved. there's three big things that need to happen. one is we got to get turkey aggressively involved on the ground in syria. that's going to be a heavy lift but we've made progress in that. secondly, i advocate a no fly zone. some of the population can be kept at home and thirdly, joeb wants to hear it but we're going to have to put more u.s. troops

into this. not 150,000. probably 10,000 or so. special operators, trainers, put them on the a khairaqi side of border. putting islamic state under pressure like that, we'll see they're not three feet tall. >> how concerning is it russia has a forward base in syria? does it change the dynamic on the ground there, especially in terms of what you were just saying, how the united states needs to put some boots on the ground. >> yeah, it does. it's unforchtunate and it will have the effect of prolonging the conflict. i think the projecture is down but having the russians come in and help them create a little bit of lift for him at what i think is close to the end game. secondly and more dangerously, it puts u.s. troops and avenue appreciators in the same battle space as russians kind of on opposite sides of the coin. that's very problematic.

we need to be talking to the russians to make sure we're deconflicting that. >> all right. admiral james, thank you very much. i know you have been frustrated with the fact that syria, that red line wasn't drown. but at the same time we were more weary at the time and you said that as well. >> at some point we're going to have to look at ours and take responsibility along with the presidents making bad decisions over the past decade or so. what's not acceptable anymore is saying well, syria is just too

difficult. >> do you really believe we should send ground troops in syria? >> i believe we need to coordinate. if there's a united nations anymore. this crisis suggests there's not an active united nations anymore. we need to work with our allies and arab allies and yes, we need to be part of a multinational force, the type of which george h.w. bush built up in 1991 and go into syria as a collection of nations and bring stability and peace to syria and stop the cluster bombing and stop the, i mean, every day he's using

chemical weapons. this is what we use to say we shouldn't do. >> listening to the story and following it for years now, i keep thinking what's happening right now is the best of the worst possible options on the table. >> i think it would make afghanistan look like a picnic. >> let's continue this conversation later. we're up against the block because mika talked so long in the first block. we'll be right back guys, stick around. good. xerox real time analytics make transit systems run more smoothly... and morning chitchat... less interesting. transportation can work better. with xerox. thank you for calling. we'll be with you shortly.

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still ahead on morning joe, round two for republicans. former rnc chairman weighs in on tonight's presidential debate plus casey hunt live with a look at how many times the word reagan will be used by the candidates. >> 847. >> that will be a lot of drunk people playing that game. and the new video of the moment. the moment a van and suv were swept away in flood waters with more than a dozen men and women were inside. plus a family escapes from the wild fires in california. bill is tracking the extreme

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first of all, i got to say i love this wall.

isn't it a beautiful wall. it's fantastic. i built this wall and i've got mexico to pay for it. >> i think i'm going to go with candidate number one. >> candidate number one. come on over. >> this is the greatest decision you've ever made in your whole life. >> this is going to be endless array. >> welcome back to morning joe. mike still with us. joining the conversation former chairm chairman, ed. what do you think about changing the name to the trump party instead of republican party. i think it's going to end up being that anyway.

he may end up being the nominee. >> i will support the nominee of the party. if it's trump, whoever it is, if he's the nominee of the party it will be better than the democratic nominee. >> what time did you start believing donald trump would be the nominee? at the beginning of the summer, i don't think a lot of people thought it would last till labor day. >> i'm not sure that's the case now. it's obviously, very early. >> but you believe it's possible. >> of course, i believe it's possible. i believe it's possible for any one of the 11 on the stage tonight to be the next nominee. clearly, he is the front runner right now and if you're one of the other candidates and you want to be the nominee then i suspect you determine that it's time to either try to stop his growth and i don't think you can help that any longer. i think you need to effect that

if it's your intent. >> by the way, the republican establishment not happy. talking about bill crystal, our friend bill. >> yes, he's on tomorrow. >> just hours away from the republican debate in california. donald trump will once again be center stage this time flanked by jeb bush and ben carson. while the prime time debate includes the top 11 candidates, before taking part in the main debate might find themselves in the main event as well. the rules allow them to respond to sharps later. trump has led in every republican pole taking the last 65 days. that pole shows trump with his tightest lead since july just four points over retired neuro

surgeon ben carson. >> jeb bush minus spoichbeven p since the last debate. i had people in bush land and walker land, let's say, a bit down. a bit drab. even if family's asking how does jeb turn it around? how does jeb turn it around? >> i think he's policies -- >> what's wrong? we've known jeb for a long time. what's happening here? >> look at that time growth of not only trump but ben carson and carly fiorina. there's clearly demand for not only somebody outside of washington but outside of election politics and i don't think walker, bush, rubio, others anticipated that level of frustration amongst republican voters. by the way, limited to

republican voters. i was going to say you see it on the democratic side as well. sanders is elected but his support and rise reflects frustration. >> 39% say he's their best shot at victory. >> that is a pretty remarkable change over the past kp l of months. >> it is. it will be interesting to see how these candidates react to donald trump. it's to say as if i'm getting all this attention.

>> rand paul told megyn kelly he was going to do it again. >> live at the library. what are you looking at tonight? >> willie, good morning. more than ever, the republican party wants to be the candidate of reagan, they attend reagan dinners and go back to give speeches, they come here to his library. it all raises a question. could ronald reagan even get elected in california today? >> ronald reagan, ronald reagan. >> ronald reagan. >> i was a big fan of ronald reagan. he's become a republican legend.

no republicans carry the state since reagan's re-election and the last one to win statewide was an actor turned politician. the g.o.p. hasn't been back since. democrats dominate sacramento. in 2016 presidential candidate carly lost badly. >> that's a generational issue honestly. people are beginning to figure out the progressive policies and democrats in that state have pursued over decades and literally destroying people's lives. >> republicans could help the party come back to power in california. even the state's top republican in washington has to admit it's an uphill climb. >> you still maintain it's not all that lonely, the republican in california. >> it's lonely. when you throw a party you know everybody in the room. >> the national g.o.p. brand can be a problem in california.

you would have people turning as a republican party. >> it's a reminder for all the romance, he might not fit so well in the republican party. >> i agree in the idea of amnesty for those who have put down roots and lived here. >> contrast that with front runner donald trump as a proimmigration group is doing in this add. >> they're doing crime, rapist. >> if i'm elected. >> that hasn't stopped trump from evoking ronald reagan's name to defend his own evolving views. >> i think they have a point from years ago. they also have that same point with ronald reagan. ronald reagan became not only a republican but a pretty conservative republican. not the most but a pretty conservative republican. >> so we'll never know exactly

what ronald reagan would have thought about donald trump standing on his debate stage as the front runner. i will say he has at least breathed new life into the old slogan let's make america great again. >> oh, yes. we all have the hat. casey hunt, thank you so much. >> ed had to take off the hat and they had to fix his hair. kate has reported 39% believes donald trump gives republicans the best shot at winning. do you believe that? >> i'm neutral. whoever emerges from the very big, very talented field is going to be the front runner for the general direction and that will be true if it's trump and any of the other 10 people on the stage tonight. or for that matter, the four people on the stage before them. if you look at the deposition of

the field, whoever emerges is going to have to prove themselves as an effective campaigner. when you look at president obama's campaign, historically only once since fdr has the country given the party a third term. i believe our nominee will be the front runner for the election. if trump emerges, if he's able to build on his base now and get the delegates to be the nominee he'll prove himself to be a very effective campaigner. >> donald trump opens up about his faith and what he sees as a weakness with david brody. take a listen. >> is there something where you could be better on that? >> it's a tough question. you hate to say what your witnesses are. i think i could tone it down a little bit when pressed.

i have a great temperament. you can't build a great business like i've built if you didn't have a great temperament. i think i could tone it down. when somebody hits you you can hit a little less hard. at the same time, that may be the kind of thing the country needs. proverbs chapter i've never bend to envy. it's an incredible book. so many things you can learn from the bible. the more you see it, the more you read it and the more incredible it is. i don't like to use this analogy but like a great movie, great incredible movie. you'll see it once. >> they want you to tone down

the insults a little bit. do you see that criticism? >> i do and i understand it 100%. i am a certain type of person. i dealt with tough people and come out on top and i can understand the evangelicals to a certain extent saying he's not as nice as we want him to be but they also want to see the country be great. >> what do you think? >> i kind of find it interesting. >> he seemed real and there was some humility there and then he covered it up. he was asked about a weakness and gave an answer.

>> i think donald trump is getting better. he's learning as he goes. there's a lot of candidates who don't learn as they go. he's becoming a bit more conservative with the small stuff because i think he's starting to think this could work. >> i look forward to talking to him. i have a couple of questions that i will be fascinated to hear his answer where i think he needs to, we'll see what happens. we're getting a look. >> you left us hanging. that's quiet a build up just to leave us hanging. >> there's things he said in the past that are not true and i would like to ask him about that and he will let us which is better than some candidates. we're getting a look at which voters candidates find most honest and trustworthy. according to the new york times, 81% of all primary voters said

they think biden is honest and trustworthy while just 64% said the same about hillary clinton. the pole also found nearly 6 in 10 democrats want the vice president to jump in the race for 2016. it all comes after biden unleashes the obama administration's attack against donald trump. >> i don't want anybody to be down right now about what's going on in the republican party. i mean this sincerely now. this is not, i'm being deadly ernst about this. i want you to remember not withstanding the fact that there's one guy absolutely denigrating an entire group of people appealing to the baser side of human nature, working on this notion of zenaphobia in a way that hasn't occurred in a long time. to make me think of this, i

walked out of the house just as trump was talking on the television. folks, this will not prevail. this will not prevail. this will pass. the trump and that stuff you're hearing on the other team and not just, this isn't about democrat republican, it's about a sick message. this message has been tried on america many times before. we always, always, always, always overcome it. >> that's joe biden in the process right now. >> i think he's still conflicted whether he has the emotional and physical energy to do it. he's where he issing with that. he knows more than any of us sitting here the total commitment it takes to run for the presidency. it's a full time job 24/7. the aspect of raising money which is humiliating enough when you're running for senate of the house. he will have to raise millions

to run for the presidency. >> he ran a big race in virginia. a tough uphill battle in virginia. you know how difficult it is. you can't run for president or even governor or senator unless you're all in, right. >> yeah. i think if he were making a purely political calculation he would get in. you're pushing on an open door. but it's in the a political calculation, it's a personal decision, the process he's engaged in because it's all in. >> are you going to run again? >> you know, i don't know. state senator elections. i'm focused on making sure we keep the majority in the state senate and then we got the presidential election next year. they're important in the college and the senate race.

one of the things about virginia is there's always a race but right now i'm focussed on electing other people. >> thank you very much. >> still ahead on morning joe, nbcs political director standing by plus steve bradford thinks he's figured out why trump and sanders has struck a cord with voters. you're watching morning joe. we'll be right back. just might be the one. to clean the oceans, to start a movement, or lead a country. it may not be obvious yet, but one of these kids is going to change the world. we just need to make sure she has what she needs. welcome to windows 10. the future starts now for all of us. the 306 horsepower lexus gs. experience the next level of performance,

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>> this is marco rubio catches footballs and answers questions.

>> that ted cruz add is looking good now. this was kind of funny. >> you've been around that for a long time. >> i don't have anything against florida state i think there has to be a school where people who can't get into florida goes to college. that's why we have florida state. >> i thought that was good. >> that's funny. >> of course, i went to florida. >> florida state university responded yesterday quote he's a nice kid. i'm sure he's frustrated by his low standing in the polls which i believe could. >> the funny thing is john thrasher ran, no.

>> nice kid. joining us from washington nbc news pole director, also a nice kid, chuck todd. >> chuck, there's nothing you love more than gator on seminal violence. i got to ask you about that. the marco add. we had some people being very critical of ted cruz's add. i did not, like how did they draw that up on a board to tell marco to do that? >> i don't know. i went to one of my favorite websites, the livingroomcandidate and i recommend people going to it and looking at the first tv adds any presidential candidate run and it's eisenhower answers questions. if you have seen the add, it's weirdly similar to that where they're like do you want america to be great and i'm like yes, i do and i think it's wonderful.

it's the first tv add. that's the first thing i thought of. again, we'll see if alex can find it. i'm not dkidding. it really sort of reminded me. if you're marco rubio, you're sitting here going what the heck is happening. the republican elector is looking for new and looking for something different and looking for somebody who hasn't been around washington for a while and they're not looking at me if you're marco rubio. he's not alone here. there's other frustrated candidates watching fiorina and carson thinking wait a minute, i've been studying and working for the last four years and these three jump in and look what's happening. ng they're all looking for something to grab some attention but this one sort of, i get why you guys are tough on it. >> we're a tough crowd. let's not be so tough. >> it's like the first tv adds we saw in america. >> yeah, it's fine.

>> that add, carly's add yesterday. >> that was incredible. >> actually i showed it to kate last night, my 12-year-old girl. there's a line that says we're not a special interest group we are the majority. >> did you explain to her what it was a response to? >> yeah. i said donald said something not nice about carly. this is how you respond. >> that's good. steve, you have a look at what may be driving the surge of support for so-called outsider candidates and you point right to income and equality. >> yeah, i was watching the show yesterday. mike brought up this point about how what may be feeding a lot of this interest in the donald trump's and ben carson's of the world. it's economic and i think in the context of 5.1% of unemployment. we forget how americans have done over the past decade or

two. this first chart goes back to 1993 to the clinton years. if you have clinton, bush, obama years and what you see is the top 1% has seen incomes. this is 62% over that period. what are the peaks, let's hit the first peak and valley, the top point 01%. what was it? >> if you want to talk about the top point 01% let's go back. they had a peak before 2000 and a peak before the last recession and they've been coming back since then. if you look at this over the continu continuum, they've doubled. the important point is the people at the both tot, the bottom 90%, 90% of all americans have gotten no pay increase for 22 years. >> 90% have gotten no pay increase for 22 years.

if you pull that 90% apart you find the bottom half of that has done worse. you got to people at the top making a minimum of $6.5 million. 16,000 americans doubling their pay while the average american is at 0. >> that's what we've been saying here for some time about real wages flapped since 1972. >> yeah. not quiet. we have another chart which will show you what's happened to average weight. you can see back in 2000 the average american family made a little over $57,000. again, this isn't from just inflation. then they were staggering along at nothing. break even and then comes the financial crisis and down they go all the way to 52,000. there's some resent data that suggest they come back a bit. it's not clear if it's early data. again, you have a case that over the past 15 years the average american has lost $2,000,

roughly 5% of their income even if these most resent numbers come out. >> chuck, if you look at this chart and the last chart, i don't know if we can go back to the last chart but the first chart we showed where the bottom, i say the bottom 90%, that's just extraordinary. 9 out of 10 americans have flat lined over the past 20 years while the rich have become extraordinarily richer. that explains so much in american politics this year. >> well, it does and it also does explain by the way, 12 straight years where the majority of the country believes we have been headed in the same direction. 12 straight years. sometimes you sit there and everybody's going well, boy, how come we didn't see trump or sanders coming. you didn't see the individuals coming but my god, the american public has been screaming about their frustration, anxiety for over a decade now and at some

point it was going to blow up american politics and maybe that's what we're experiencing right now. by the way, the top, i would add with trump, particularly with i think the trump phenomena and the folks attracted to it, when you have the economic stagnation and economic anxiety, then by the way middle america feels as if you're changing culturally so fast, this is where i think the backlash, you throw it all into this stew and this is why this backlash is happening. >> you also, chuck, add to that that it's very rare, public life, people in public life, poll situations today can manage to angie harre articulate and express the frustration and rage in the country. they keep referring to the middle class although the definition of what incompasses the middle classes change drastically over the last two decades. you have people now living on

the edge where everything around them goes up. their health insurance premiums, their property taxes, car insurance bills and their pay raise when they get one comes in the form of decreasing gas prices. they're paying half of what they paid for gasoline today. they view that now as a pay raise and nobody in public life, very few people in public life can manage to articulate this frustration. >> 100%. i think sanders is trying, trump is trying, but i think you're right and i think that this is where the distrust comes from. >> chuck todd, thank you just for you. a little look at something that you mejntioned earlier in the segment. can we bring it up? did you find it? >> prices are just driving me crazy. >> yes, my mimi gets after me about the high cost of living. it's another reason i say it's

time for a change. time to get back to an honest dollar and an honest dollars's worth. >> look at that. i want more. >> the rubio campaign should be happy. we're comparing it to height. >> that's what we meant. >> we got presidential candidates carly fiorina and chris christie. they're sure to be a big part of the debate. plus governor scott walker is going to join us on friday. we'll also be talking about how he performed in the debate and we'll be right back with more morning joe in a minute. here is a simple math problem. two trains leave st. louis for albuquerque at the same time. same cargo, same size, same power. which one arrives first? hint: it's not the one on the left. the speedy guy on the right

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36 past the hour. let's take a look at the morning papers. a spokesman has denied the -- the two men will a conversation. the confusion began on monday when john wrote on instagram quote thank you to president putin for reaching out and speaking via telephone with me. i look forward to meeting with

you face to face to discuss equality in russia. the alleged conversation was confirmed tuesday by a spokesman on john yet last night putin's press secretary said the russian president has never spoken to john and was unsure how authentic john's social media press was. they added however that he did not doubt he would be willing to speak with the singer. >> probably because he called putin tiny dancer. >> it might have been that. you know what, you've got it. >> video from a game in new jersey friday shows a player pulling off the helmet of a player on the opposing team and hitting him on the head with it.

he was foullagged for a persona flag on the play. the local police department says the incident is under investigation to determine if charges will be filed. >> that last answer is ridiculous. the local police department. throw the kid off the team. >> eject him immediately. what did they miss there? this from the kansas city star. fans in cleveland booed during last night's royals indians game when fireworks were set off after a home run hit by a member of the visiting team. >> hit well to left field down the line, into the corner and alex has his second home run of the trip. josh gives up his 11th home run of the year and alex gives the royals a 2-0 lead.

>> he put the fast ball down and away and it was a mistake. speaking of mistakes, that man sitting up there controlling the fireworks just made one and he's getting booed. he's putting his cap on now. >> oh no. i feel bad for him. >> even i wouldn't make that one. >> stuff happens. >> i totally understand what happened. >> you do? >> yes. >> what happened? >> he did it by mace take. it's okay. >> awe. push the button. >> poor guy. >> i feel bad. that's terrible. we all. >> yeah. we all make mistakes. >> i make mistakes every 3 seconds. fortunately, it's not on the front page of the newspaper. >> up next when it comes to great generations, do my lineals have a lot to live up to? yes. take a chill pill and hold on to

the refrigerator. nbc is here with his idea to mold to next generation. >> maybe eliminating them to four fantasy football leagues. >> and three devices that give them everything they want at the moments notice. we'll get tom's take on the g.o.p. field and the trump debate tonight as well. we'll be right back. ? it's evil. and ladders. sfx: [screams] they have all those warnings on 'em. might as well say... 'you're gonna die, jeff.' you hired someone to clean the gutters. not just someone. angie's list helped me find a highly rated service provider to do the work at a fair price. ♪ everyone can shop, but members get more with reviews, live customer support, and better pricing. visit angieslist.com today.

we're going to be talking about dpieting things. i want to talk about tonight's debate. it's in a place about a man you know very well. a lot of people may not know in 1966 when ronald reagan got his

start, a young reporter was right there. >> i was riding the buses with him around orange county and central valley. i was there the night he got elected and these candidates tonight are going to be doing everything but putting on reagan masks saying i'm the reincar face. a lot of the reagan folks say they don't remember he was always a guy that knew when to cut a deal. if you really want to know ronald reagan, read the reagan diaries. remember, they raised taxes during the reagan administration and had a reform deal going. there's a number of things that got done that are not remembered in a way they should be. >> remember when you were out in california covering him, i remember reading about how bill had to come out in 1967, the year after he was elected to convince conservatives reagan wasn't a trader because he was

dealing with democrats. >> it was a very sophisticated state legislature. it was onef the best lawmakers i've encountered and about a month into the administration he said to me this guy is so much more than we thought. we had to give them a lot of credit. when they raised taxes when he was a president jack came storming in the oval office. they said you can't do that. reagan and his diary said jack doesn't understand that at some point when you're governing you have to reach a compromise of some kind. >> and you have to govern. >> you have to get the job done. i always say to people if you really want to know who reagan was, read those diaries. >> talk about arizona state university and why you've gotten involved in this, i think, remarkably important effort. >> well, here's how it began very quickly and i'll let michael talk about what they're doing.

i would let them come back from iraq and afghanistan and these terrific warriors fight the bad guys all night long and go in the villages and in helmets and vest and say we're here to help you, to rebuild what's going on winning hearts and minds, villagers were like this. why can't we have a new form of public service? we haven't had anything really new in that area since the peace corp. it's less than some other parts. i said let's give the schools a chance to build public service academies and their four year programs and people can join up and get some kind of both corporate counselling so they have job skills when they get out of this as well and they have a sense of what they're attachment to the country is. the my len yal is disconnected from the country in so many ways

president this is a chance to put them together. michael said i'm your guy and i'm going to take it. now i'm going to let him take it and describe what he has going this fall. >> we're going to build a universal model. let's figure out how to make it happen and work. we build a pub lek service academy for civilian leaders who cotrain with military leaders and imagine we're building the civilian officers training core, if we will through the public service academy and we're making this happen and ways we're attracting students. >> i already know the answer. explain how this answers the need, perhaps the void that exists in young people as they enter adult hood today and go to college and what they're getting. >> we call them the my lineal nets. their single focus is on their life having purpose. this expands ability to have

options for purpose and it makes college for meaningful for them. >> how do you confront the obstacle often led by parenal pressure go to school in order to get out and make a lot of money. >> welsh we try to say it's a lot more than that. we try to train people to be master learners, to be of service and be focussed on things. we try to urge parents not to be focussed so much on the individual degree or job. the average kid going forward will have four careers, 12-15 jobs in their life. it's not about training for jobs, it's about preparation for their future. >> is there on the job skill training while you are in school? >> there's definitely in this academy a part about learning to be a leader. there's hands on work as well as academic. >> it's a remarkable student body. i've been out there and they've got more than 3,000 chinese students. >> yes.

>> a huge con ten jens of veterans coming back. not the separate the veterans from the idea they can come back and get involved in the puck li public academy as well. they come back and want to serve and this is an opening for them to get back involved on the nonmilitary piece. >> michael, you're doing an encredible job. arizona state university ranked the number one most innovative school in the united states. congratulations on everything that's going on out there. >> really good accompany in the top five with you. that's incredible. >> before we go to break, what in the world is happening in politics? you got bernie sanders getting 30,000 people. donald trump getting 20-30,000 people. seems like they're flying the plane upside down and winning. >> the country is in the

position and i think people are fed up with ways that doesn't d them much good. that's across the board, by the way. in the place of money, trump is right when he says, i'm not going to be owned by anybody. >> boy, they love hearing that, don't they? >> that's so refreshing. >> when sanders comes along for the democrats and trump who is, as we know in new york, one of the master self-promoters of all time, a real estate guy who knows how to put his name on everything and say to the most basic way, we're going to build that wall. no numbers attached to any of this stuff, by the way. he just goes out, make america great again. that plays in a visceral sense to people who gretietting up ev day saying something is wrong here. >> i think they feel a sense of hypocrisy or worse from

politicians in general. from washington. >> no doubt. >> big time. big time. >> michael crow, tom brokaw. thank you so much. still ahead. steve schmidt and mike halpern. and the distortions of u.s. success against isis reached the highest ranking officials in the intelligence unit. the disturbing report from "the new york times" straight ahead. right back with much more from "morning joe."

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today nbc announced that arnold schwarzenegger will be the next host of celebrity "apprentice." not only did they take the job from trump but nbc added insult to injury by giving it to an immigrant. [ cheers and applause ] >> strong move. arnold schwarzenegger will host "celebrity apprentice," the first challenge is figuring out what arnold wants you to do. you have to make sure that you buy the lemonade and make sure it's a big business. that's why the man will be in the chair. [ cheers and applause ] up next we set the stage for tonight's republican presidential debate including how the lower tier contenders

could make an appearance. donald trump gets prepped for battle as candidates and conservative groups ratchet up their attacks. >> he is really just playing us for chumps. trump. just another politician. which presidential candidate supports -- >> and disaster out west. a couple barely escapes the wildfires in california claiming they never received an order to evacuate. plus, the dramatic moment when flood waters swept away two vehicles full of women and children. "morning joe" is back in a moment. when a wildfire raged through elkhorn ranch, the sudden loss of pasture became a serious problem for a family business. faced with horses that needed feeding and a texas drought that sent hay prices soaring, the owners had to act fast. thankfully, mary miller banks with chase for business. and with greater financial clarity and a relationship built for the unexpected,

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so, the debate. i hear they're all going after me. whatever. whatever. no, i hear it. >> whatever, right? >> whatever! >> welcome to "morning joe" everybody. mike barnicle and steve are here. >> whatever. >> whatever. >> i figured something out last night. i don't figure things out much, but you know, i figured something out last night and i'm really proud about it. so i drove all the way in to tell you guys. >> good. thanks! >> i'm watching megyn kelly. she is so mad, like, you know, blood is coming out of her -- >> all right. we don't do this. >> she has dave mcintosh, a guy you know i like. >> club for grub. >> he's talking about this new

ad campaign they're running against trump. >> mm-hmm. >> they're going to go after him. it just hit me. everybody saying how do you stop trump? the way you stop trump is you ignore trump. >> but nobody can do that. >> but nobody can do that. what do you think happens? it's kind of like the road runner. you know, the anvil, it's not going to hit the road runner. >> have you seen the spot? >> i saw the spot. >> it's ridiculous. they call him a career politician or the worst kind of politician. >> i have it. i have stuff to do here. >> club for growth and dave mcintosh need to understand, you run this ad against donald trump and you are feeding a perpetual motion machine. it's like when you -- >> he is an action junkie. >> you keep shoving play-doh and stuff keeps coming out. >> i love doing that. i always wanted one.

my parents never got one of those for me. >> you stop jamming stuff in there, right? nothing comes out. but you knew when you heard they were going to attack trump. >> yeah. >> that trump would turn lemons into lemonade. >> there is one person -- >> can i say it's the most follows lemmoonade you ever tasd before. it's such great lemonade, it will make your head spin. >> we're going to show this clip. club for growth. >> which candidate supports higher taxes, national health care and the wall street bailout? it's donald trump. >> in many cases i probably identify more as a democrat. >> he wants us to think he's mr. tell it like it is, but he has a record and it's very liberal. he's really just playing us for chumps. >> club for growth is a phony outfit. they came to my office a few months ago and asked me for a

million dollars. right after i told them no they came out with a negative ad. >> as i said, shove the play-doh in there and you give donald more. you know what i'm saying? >> yeah. >> everybody plays into it. >> he has been able to do this to anybody who ever attacked him. he says. it's funny you don't like me anymore because i wrote you a check and gave you money. when the club for growth comes after him, we can play the ad but it allows him to preempt it in a speech and go on tv and attack them and continue to do what trump does. >> everybody -- what everybody hears is pea nuts. and then he tweets out the letter and he wins. the perpetual motion machine is fed. >> he is in the enviable position of having every knock be a boost. >> every knock is a boost. >> every one. >> it's extraordinary.

who has seen this before that he can always turn it around and have it work to his advantage. >> do you think there is a point, joe, where some voters say -- the ads will be run in iowa, where people will say, i like the guy, like his energy. and they say, wait a minute. he wants to raise taxes. he does support democrats. or does anybody care? >> no. they've alreadifoy factored tha in. they know what he said back then. it doesn't matter. he is an anti politician. look at my brother. ex t what is the difference between a guy who has changed his position through the years and a republican who has lied through the years who says elect me and i'll get us out of wars. they'd rather have the guy who talks straight than the guy who

has been lying for 25 years. the base believes for good reason that the republican party in washington d.c. has been lying to them for 25 years. >> it's going to be the trump party. rebranded. bill crystal said trump wouldn't win. he said trump had no chance. he scoffed at him actually more than anybody who came on our set. >> i did. >> i like david remnick a lot. i would love for him to come back. >> david, come back on the show. >> we may not have been polite on that day. mika was in a bad mood. >> i was. it was a bad moment. back to bill crystal, our friend. >> can you imagine what they wore? >> oh, my god! >> it wasn't all lights on the tennis courts. >> they wore orange.

>> it was as ghastly as john -- i can't believe i even said that irishman's name. john mcenroe. >> back to our friend, bill crystal. you need to come back and we need to talk. oh, he's on tomorrow! >> could you get david on tomorrow? we're hours away. work on it. hours away from tonight's second republican debate. >> the trump party showdown in simi valley. >> stop saying that. >> donald trump, it's going to be a beautiful showdown will once again be center stage in the trump debate. flanked by jeb bush and ben carson. while the prime-time debate includes the top 11 candidates the four taking part in the earlier debate may find themselves in the main event as well. the rules allow for the later candidates to respond to sharp points made earlier meaning trump might have even more critics to take on. trump has led every republican poll taken in the last 65 days including the one released

yesterday. that one shows trump with his highest lead since july. four points over retired neurosurgeon ben carson who has climbed 17 points since last month's debate. >> i saw ben carson last night on megyn kelly. i would love for him to operate on me. i would love to go to church with him. i got no idea how i could ever vote for the guy. you just sit and listen to him, willie. it would be like me going around talking about being a neurosurgeon. >> he has built-in support. he has been going around the last few years making speeches. he has built uppen an email lis. it doesn't explain 17 point jump. >> his views on the issues are frightening. >> they're frightening and uninformed. >> frightening and frighteningly uninformed. >> you don't have to ask factual questions to get questions that are just wrong. all kinds of things he's said

without -- as i said -- gotcha questions. >> doesn't that get you down to what is going on in the republican party? >> that's what i told you. it's not the republican party anymore. >> the republican base loaves the washington establishment. the republican establishment, they feel betrayed and they loathe them. so they would rather have ben carson and donald trump than anybody that has any experience governing. right? >> more than 50% of them. >> every time, every poll over the past couple of weeks. >> all right. i am actually going to ask alex to put nb5 up next. let me finish this. we're also getting a look at -- here we are -- which candidates voters find the most honest and twitter. accordi trustworthy. 81% of all primary voters said they think biden is honest and trustworthy.

64% said the same about hillary clinton. i also think biden can do something no other candidate can do. nearly six in ten candidates want the vice president to jump in the race. it all comes as biden unleashes the obama administration's most direct attack yet against donald trump. here is the vice president yesterday at an hispanic heritage event. >> i don't want anybody to be down right now about what's going on in the republican party. i mean this sincerely now. this is not -- no. this is -- i'm being deadly earnest about this. i want you to remember, notwithstanding the fact there is one guy absolutely denigra denigrating an entire group of people, appealing to the baser side of human nature, working on this notion of xenophobia in a way that hasn't occurred in a long time. >> what made me think of this, i walked out of the house just as trump was talking.

on the television. folks, this will not prevail. this will not prevail. this will pass. the trump and that stuff you're hearing on the other team and not just the other -- this isn't about democrat/republican. it's about a sick message. this message has been tried on america many times before. we always, always, always, always, always overcome it. >> he has a little more spring in his step, doesn't he? >> an adult. an adult. an adult. an adult who can go out and talk and is not afraid to answer questions. >> correct. >> because he hasn't created a web of problems for himself. >> that's it. >> correct. >> that's it. >> he is actually -- looks free. the guy -- i mean, he -- i thought he looked really good. >> one of the things on the new poll.

immigration, the american public is actually not with trump. 58% of americans think the illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay and another 10% think they should be allowedcit. i think a small portion of the republican party feels the way you described it earlier. >> you talk to most republicans. they don't think there are going to be 11 million, 12 million, 13 million immigrants deported. it's insanity. it really is. and it's -- i don't know. >> you know what was really interesting, just in the past few seconds that we've been watching the two clips that we played, the sound muted. the vice president followed by donald trump. could we show those two again? there is the vice president of the united states speaking quite honestly about the issues facing the country. there we have this guy who -- >> you know what? right now that's what americans want. they're mad as hell and they're not going to put up with it anymore. they feel like the government

has betrayed them through the years. >> to me that's the race right there. maybe others -- we'll see what happens. >> what do you think? >> a couple people in the "times" have a piece today that trump is becoming more disciplined, by his standard. >> he totally is. evolving. >> he has a message, knows what he's doing. stays and works the rope line afterward. it's almost like it's occurred to him like, wow, this could happen. >> oh, yeah. >> this is real. >> i think he is. >> new poll has hillary clinton's lead slipping both nationally and statewide. the cbs news/new york times poll shows hillary clinton in first place but vermont senator bernie sanders has cut her lead in half since august. it comes as a new monmouth poll shows sanders ahead of clinton 43% to 36%. sanders spoke to nbc's andrea

mitchell yesterday and said this about his surge. >> when we began this campaign the polls had us at like 3% or 5%, 80%, 85% of the american people didn't even know who bernie sanders was let alone what i am trying to do and the views that we're espousing, the chang changes we want to see. i believe that the more the american people become familiar with the issues that we are fighting for, i think you're going to see us do better and better in the weeks and months to come. >> all right. so what do you think about all these polls? >> on the democratic side hillary clinton obviously has slipped a lot. she has slipped with women, she has slipped with democrats, independents. she has lost 10, 11, 12 points in every poll we've seen over the past month. the most telling thing -- we talk about polls don't matter this early. they're starting to matter, i think, steve, over the next three or four weeks will tell

the tale for hillary clinton. once she gets into the 30s you'll see democrats pushing john kerry, joe biden, other people into the race. don't you think the next three or four weeks -- if she loses as much over the next month as she has lost over the past month, then it really is a wide-open race. >> well, sure. you can't keep throwing a line that goes down and down forever. at some point it has to stop and turn around. as you said, it is early. back to 2008 she was leading obama by 17 or 18 points at this stage of the race. and we know what happened. but yeah. she has got to somehow stop the bleeding from this email situation. >> how does she do it? excuse me? >> i know you are a supporter of hillary. how does she do it? >> what i have said consistently and i think the campaign is doing it. open the kimono. turn over the server, answer the questions. as chris christie said on sunday on one of the shows.

after his bridge-gate thing he spent an hour taking questions from reporters. you have to be willing -- >> what do you do when someone who works for you who set up the server pleads the fifth? >> i don't blame the guy for pleading the fifth. an i.t. guy they hired and suddenly finds himself being questioned by the justice department or whatever. >> that is the problem. i would plead the fifth in that situation. >> of course. >> i would tell anybody -- as an attorney i would tell anybody in his position to plead the fifth. >> okay. >> there is an active fbi investigation going on, it is for more aggressive than has been portrayed in the national media. everybody in washington d.c. knows that. i think that's the biggest problem with hillary clinton holding a press conference. because there is an active fbi investigation going on. so active that they're even telling agencies that they're not allowed to answer basic questions. because those basic questions

that they answer could run afoul of an fbi investigation. >> she has done interviews. she did the one with andrea mitchell the other day, the one with abc news. i think the more she does, the more the questions at some point start to just peter out. >> so here is the problem. the problem with those interviews, if she is going to do it, i want to be careful saying this, but if she's going to do it she has to make sure the information she gives the american people is not going to be contradicted in a month or two. just like the u.n. press conference. unfortunately, when she talked to andrea mitchell she said some things that are going to be contradicted in the coming weeks or months, for instance that the state department authorized me to do that. that's not true. i know for a fact that's not true. that's going to be contradicted in the next month or two. so if she is going to do this --

>> well, she is the state department. so if she authorized herself -- >> that's -- if she -- that is the only. >> that's what she should say. >> that's the only way that will be true, if she talks about what the meaning of "is" is. >> why don't you just say it. >> steve alluded to this. her huge issue, the huge problem of her campaign is she gave a very, very tough, very good speech on iran about ten days ago. go find it in terms of the coverage. there was no coverage of it. because no one can see what she stands for through the fog of this email controversy. and there are more emails that are going to become public. >> right. >> it's going to be the drip treatment over the next five, six, seven weeks. still ahead on "morning joe" we bring in steve schmidt and mike halperin for their thoughts on tonight's debate. the investigation into weather officials distorted intel on the war against isis. this morning we're learning

just how far up the chain of command that investigation goes. did you hear about the pope? >> pope francis weighs in on another foreign policy issue that has republicans and democrats divided. first, bill is tracking the flash flooding. >> the flash flood in southern utah. the pictures are amazing. the numbers unfortunately went up. still one person that's missing. 13 fatalities. this was all from a thunderstorm that dumped an inch to 2 inches of rain in mountainous areas. two vans went down the river with women and children in them. when they found the vans they were unrecognizable. tires stripped off. a horrible tragedy in southern utah. >> now let's go to what is a harrowing escape for a family from the valley fire in california. they didn't get the warning. they saw the flames, jumped in their cars and took this video as they were trying to drive out of the fire. i mean, not just how bad it is

or how widespread it is. you can see some torching occasionally on the pine trees on the side of the roads. imagine being a firefighter trying to fight a blaze like this. where do you even start? that's how you get the picture of why they ran out of water and why also 600 homes were destroyed? look at the winds gusting, the ambers starting new blazes. >> today, rainy weather in florida. we're halfway through september. this is a historic month. in the northeast, great lakes, portions of the ohio valley, midwest. the highest september to this point. new york city averaging 78 degrees. the average warmest temperature was 73.5. we're almost 4 degrees warmer than the warmest ever. all the cities from boston to albany, chicago, st. louis, des moines and minneapolis on pace for the warmest september ever recorded. this is a very warm week. we'll add to those numbers today. 90s from texas to oklahoma. unprecedented really to see this

widespread this time of year for this long. 85 in minneapolis. 87 in new york. we'll stay warm. the only problem spot is florida. rain earlier in west palm beach and miami. that will continue on and off during the day today. your typical thunderstorms that we deal with. we leave you with a shot on this wednesday, new york city looking at summer-like temperatures. 87 degrees. "30 rock" looking nice. "morning joe" will be right back. activated. twaifgs. twaifgsactivation. activation

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woman: when a student understands a concept for the first time. man: when the students get it. man: their eyes get big, the lightbulb pops on. woman: "i got it, i think i got it!" they light up. it's like magic. woman: this is not just a job. woman: the rewards i get are... priceless. man: we help kids grow, and that's part of the rush of teaching. narrator: the california teachers association. educators who know quality public schools make a better california for all of us. okay. i don't know if we have time, but let's try to take a look at some of the morning papers. "huffington post" another endorsement of the nuclear deal. the pope's speech before a joint session of congress next week

the foreign minister said he hopes the deal will act as a definitive step toward greater security in the region. this shows the strongest show of support from the catholic church to date. a new report by the "new york times" details who is at the center of an investigation into distorted intelligence involving the warren o isis. intelligence analysts allege the superiors within u.s. central command who changed conclusions to paint an overly optimistic picture about the war against the islamic state. it involves a number of topics including the readiness of the iraqi security forces and the success of the bombing campaign in iraq and syria. one unnamed analyst told the "new york times" the complaints involve the highest-ranking officials in the intelligence unit and that, quote, senior intelligence officers are flipping everything on its head. >> that's a huge story. >> yeah. you going to talk about that, mike? >> the country, the world, has suffered through the faulty

intelligence in the invasion of iraq. now we have the retooling, tampering by intelligence reports done by operatives. up the chain, the intelligence estimate is altered before its presented to the president of the united states. that's a very dangerous story. coming up on "morning joe" the fed begins its two-day meeting today expected to end with a decision on whether to raise interest rates. is the u.s. economy ready? cnbc's brian sullivan has business before the bell. plus, steve schmidt and mike halperin join us with their expert takes on tonight's preside presidential debate. the political round table is next on "morning joe." when your windshield needs fixed, trust safelite.

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did you see this during a speech in miami, jeb bush attempted to liven things up at a campaign event when he unbuttoned his shirt. to reveal an old reagan-bush campaign t-shirt. look at this. >> let me show you something. the party that i believe in -- [ cheers and applause ] >> the party i believe in,

reagan and bush. [ laughter ] >> worst stripper ever! >> joining us now, former mccain senior campaign strategist and msnbc political analyst steve schmidt and from the ronald reagan presidential library in simi valley, california, managing editor of bloomberg politics, mike halperin. >> what are you looking for tonight? >> everybody on this stage has to deal with selling themselves and dealing with the trump factor. i think the four establishment candidates are the ones who have to try to send a signal to the establishment they can stand up to trump but also have something to sell on their own. walker, rubio, kasich, bush. >> we talk about punching tickets out of iowa. are we talking about a situation where there is only one ticket out of the gop establishment? >> no. i think there still may be two. but there is not a lot of time left to break through. you have to deal with the

holidays, you have to deal with the fact that trump can blot out the news on any given day. there are very few moments that these candidates can either on their own or through multi-candidate events actually break through. i think two of the establishment candidates need to get their performance level up. i think kasich is the one who has shown the most growth so far. >> people who don't know politics look at things. why are you talking about polls in august? a lot of times it has something to do with money, it has a lot to do with buzz and momentum. we're now in september, getting near the end of september. mark brings up a great point. if you're campaigning good luck after thanksgiving to get anybody to pay attention to you. >> you are taking this personally. >> no. i'm saying the window is starting to close. so if stupid people out there say, it's only september -- you have a month of burned time between thanksgiving, christmas

shopping and christmas where people will say, get out of my face. >> go back a month. it was the end of august. now it's the end of september. time goes quickly. we'll be at thanksgiving before you know it. then christmas. thanksgiving is half-time. christmas is the two-minute warning of the football game. and then the voting starts very, very early in february. and to mark's point, when you look at the establishment candidates on the stage, both kasich and rubio were fantastic, thought they were fantastic in the first debate. but only one of them has the potential to emerge as the anti-bush, anti-trump establishment candidate. so, for kasich and rubio against bush and trump, the deal is in this debate tonight is for people to start look being at the two of them and say, those two were better than that guy as a potential against trump and then ultimately, for one of them to stand out as that guy is better than that other guy.

and so, important night tonight for rubio and kasich to begin to distinguish themselves from a performance level. >> here is the problem. you've got kasich, mike, you've got rubio, you've got carly, who is exciting a lot of people up in new hampshire. you've got scott walker. you've got so many people up there, and they've all been brushed aside by carson and trump. how do you break through? with 87 people on the stage? >> i think the candidate with the most potential danger in front of him tonight is jeb bush. so what does jeb bush have to do to prevent people like us and people writing about this tomorrow from saying, he's basically extinct as a candidate? >> he has to be high energy, he can't be low energy. he has to stand and fight

tonight. not flail but fight. he has to stand up to donald trump. he has to show toughness and strength. he has to show the capacity to lead the country. he has to show the american people that he is a guy who can walk into a room with vladimir putin, and donald trump is playing that proxy tonight in win for america, that he can stand up to the bully, that he can knock him back, that he can put him down, that he can bring seriousness to the end of the nonsense season. and so, if he doesn't engage donald trump tonight, if he takes a pass, if he does what tim polenti did four years ago, say things off the stage but not to his face, could be the end of his campaign. the other person on the cliff is scott walker. >> you look at the down trends in the polls. it's been carson and trump pointed straight up. jeb and walker down over the

past month. dramatically. >> all these campaigns know exactly what they've said previously. the candidates said previously about trump. they know full well they have to go at least that far on the stage with them or they'll be criticized. the three things that matter are optimism because they all see that they can outflank trump on that score. alpha. you have to be at least as big as trump. and exciting. you've got to give republicans a sense of possibility that, if they choose you instead of trump or carson, you will be an exciting figure in the american stage for four or eight years. that's the challenge for all of them. >> i think it's a really fine line. you can't out-alpha trump's alpha. >> you have to try. you have to try, mika. >> you know who just did it? >> carly? >> no. joe biden. he did it quietly. >> exactly right. >> elegantly. >> with humor and elegance. >> with humor, with a sense of

honesty. not one high-pitched loud word. >> you can say biden did it. i look at that carly ad, carly did it. >> carly didn't. that was her super pac. i keep thinking that way too. >> the carly ad, where they take an insult -- >> it does do it. >> it's like yeah. oh yeah. look at this face. please. i invite you to. it was great. anyway, speaking of ads. >> right to rise. the super pac backing jeb bush with tens of millions of dollars has a new ad hitting donald trump, contrasting bush's positive message. >> the american dream is dead. give me a break! >> my message will be an optimistic one. we will lift our sights again. make opportunity common again. growth that makes a difference for everyone. it's possible. it can be done. >> unfortunately for bush

allies, some of the stock footage was not made in america. political reports that the sun rising over the field is in cornwall, england. the construction workers with text on the screen that says "america is great" is from southeast asia. >> well, i mean, that's a nice place. >> lovely this time of year. >> cornwall is lovely this time of year. >> how do you do that? >> i don't know how you do that. how do you do that, steve? >> mike halperin, how do you do that? >> how does that happen? >> it's not ideal. that's a web video, not an ad. >> not ideal! >> super pac. >> they shouldn't make a mistake like that. but the content of the ad, the web video, i think is right on to how, if jeb bush is going to overtake trump, that's how he's going to do it. optimism and trying to mock trump a little bit the way trump mocks his opponents. >> steve schmidt? >> i don't know.

>> any right of center political party anywhere in the democratic west, when you detach optimism from conservativism, we have a very hard time. >> we lose. >> you have to attach optimism to conservativism. look in australia where they had a change of prime ministers. malcolm turnbull, very smooth communicator. very optimistic in his communications. gets this. and so, for the republican party, the necessity of being optimistic, attaching in a cynical time where people are angry, where people are mad, having a leader that can sell optimism in that downtime is a crucial test of leadership, particularly with regard to the trump phenomenon. but what trump is saying is what republican voters fundamentally believe. barack obama has wrecked the country. that's what they believe. he has succeeded in his mission

of change. he has transformed the country. he has ruined it. three out of four wheels are hanging over the edge of the cliff. donald trump is speaking to that. >> let me just add to that. i think it's -- it goes back a little bit before barack obama. i think what they're saying is the republican party and the democratic party wrecked this country. >> no doubt. >> barack obama got elected, and he took a bad situation and he made it worse. we elected republicans in 2010 to fix it. they did nothing. we elected republicans in 2014 to fix it, and they did nothing. please. if you're from washington or you're a governor that's been elected, don't talk to us. we've elected you. we've trusted you. you have failed. >> i actually think that the worst thing is -- not that he took a bad situation and made it worse -- i don't agree with that. i think he actually got a lot done that he promised. >> we're talking about republicans. i know. >> my point is he took a bad

situation in terms of the political climate and didn't make it better. people were already at their breaking point. if he can't make it better, if he can't make the discourse better in washington, if he can't get along with the other side in order to collectively work together and it can only be done like this [ banging hand on table ] then frankly forget it, right? >> you have all the people in the commentary sitting around talking. trump doesn't have positions. he doesn't have position papers. sometime between the 40th and 60th pretend vote to reveal obamacare that republicans perpetrated on the country, the play fighting, voters figured it out. none of this is on the level. none of this is real. >> right. >> the promises, the positions, the articulation of i believe this and my plan to do this is all nonsense talk. >> anybody that ever gets anything done, they actually do it by talking like trump and

talking about turning over the tables in the temple and raising hell. i remember ronald reagan, while ronald reagan's inauguration was going on and the parade going on down the street, i was hearing. reagan said he's going to do this but he can't do it. reagan was told he can do this. and at one point, i don't know who was reporting. may have been peter jennings. at one point they said one of reagan's aides was frustrated and said, why the hell did we come here if we can't do anything. mike halperin, you know, i think most americans believe, you're going to have to shake things up. you're going to have to turn the tables over in the temple if you're going to turn things around in washington. >> this is where i think we maybe haven't unpacked the bush brand enough. yes, it's about the iraq war.

yes, it's about dynasty. when you have jeb bush showing off a vintage t-shirt, yes, it involves reagan. reagan-bush t-shirt, a lot of republicans see that and say this is a guy who -- i don't care if he never worked in washington, he is part of what's wrong with our politics. that's who jeb bush is. even though he is an outsider as a governor, even though a record of accomplishment in florida. he still has that hurdle to overcome. trump, the minute he opens his mouth, everybody knows he is not wearing vintage t-shirts. he is not part of decades of failures in washington. >> you bring up the bush brand. new hampshire. i'm there this weekend. i go to three events. i am reporting but also they ask me to come up and talk and say hi. i go up to one event and jo john sanunu got up and delivered a great speech. warmth in the crowd. they clapped. all this other stuff.

i got up a little bit later and talked about how important new hampshire was. remembering 1988, the governor, and helping save bush 41s campaign. >> i thought it was a pretty safe thing to say. there was kind of silence in the crowd. a little rumbling. they had applauded for other things. kind of rumbling. i got into the car and i said, what just happened? everybody was like applauding sonunu. i say nice things about how he saved bush 41. one of the greatest guys ever and everybody goes quiet. he said, his son is running for governor. jeb is on the ticket. and they're all dynasties. you know what, they may love the governor, they may love bush 41, but they don't do dynastic politics up here. and it's this unpacking the bush brand. even new hampshire, at a place

that should have been the heart of sort of this thing, gets the pass. >> it's that plus what you've been talking about, people thinking the politicians are not on the level. people don't think we're on the level. people don't think much of anything is on the level other than what's happened to their lives. i don't think most people think the country has been wrecked by barack obama or anybody else, but i do think that most people think that the country has gone off the rails. >> mike halperin, thank you very much. steve schmidt. stay with us. >> thank you, mark. still ahead on "morning joe," facebook is about to add a new option. we'll let mark zuckerberg explain that. that plus the markets when "morning joe" comes right back. just might be the one.

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zuckerberg hosted a public q & a session where he answered questions from facebook users around the world. when asked about a way for users to express emotions other than like, here is what zuckerberg had to say. >> people aren't looking for an ability to down-vote other people's posts. what they really want is to be able to express empathy. and you know, if -- not every moment is a good moment, right. and if you are sharing something that is sad, you know, whether it's something in current events like the refugee crisis that touches you or if a family member passed away, then it may not feel comfortable to like that post. but your friends and people want to be able to express that they understand and that they relate to you. >> the company is not creating a simple "dislike" button, concerned that it would create a negative space but will be

releasing a test version where users can express more varied emotion. >> that's a great idea. it's a lot more positive than other corners of the internet globe. >> let's bring in cnbc's brian sullivan. the big fed meeting. >> 2:00 p.m. eastern time at the top of "power lunch." a decent host from what i understand. the fed decision. most people are not expecting the first interest rate increase in nine years. i actually am, but i'm increasingly like tom hanks in volcano on an island about that. they could raise in october or december. a decision should be coming soon. hp saying it will cut 33,000 jobs over the next three years. the company will split into two separate companies, so they're making big cuts ahead of that unfortunately.

guys, to your point, this facebook thing is really interesting. i get your point, because i just joined facebook about three weeks ago, created a page. i wrote -- in part because it is i think a little more humane than, like you said, the darker corners of the web. but is down-vote a word? zuckerberg used the word "down-vote." i think it's a terrible idea to have a dislike button? can you imagine you accidentally dislike a video of your in-law's kids? >> i do actually like the idea that facebook does. it's a like. you know, there is not the up or down or anything like that. thank you so much for being with us, brian, even though you did seem to conflate joe and the volcano in "castaway." call your agent. >> i don't have an agent. >> there is your problem. >> you wouldn't have conflated that's two --

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tomorrow "morning joe" we'll have all the highlights and analysis of tonight's debate. we'll have expert takes plus carly fiorina and governor chris christie will be among our many big guests. up next, did we learn anything? we'll find out. ♪ ♪

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go to msnbc.com/knowyourvalue. submit your video for the boston competition and the chance to win $10,000. women will come and learn to know their value and communicate -- >> the philadelphia and washington events have been extraordinary. this will be even better. tickets going fast. let's talk about what i learned today. new poll. watch out. carly is coming. this is a new wbur poll. donald trump in first still with 22%. ben carson tightening it up in just about every race. carly fiorina at 11%. >> carly! >> jeb bush at 9%. kasich also showing strength at 9%. ted cruz at 5%. i learned that carly fiorina, as i said, will be the story tonight. >> what did you learn, steve? >> carly fiorina is coming. she is coming for trump tonight. she is the person on the stage for sure who is tough enough to take him on head-on.

it will be a great drama tonight. >> mike. >> i've learned that continually i have no idea how the ben carson thing is -- that phenomenon is beyond me. >> leave it there. >> i learned that steve schmidt believed the gary busey meatloaf fight might have been fake. >> on that note we go to "the rundown," straight ahead. good morning to you on josé díaz-balart in new york. welcome to debate day. we're hours away from the second faceoff of the republican presidential candidates. donald trump will once again be center stage, flanked by ben carson and jeb bush. join the main stage, carly fiorina, the only woman in the race for the gop nomination. but all the fire will be directed at donald trump. every poll released over the past 65 days shows him leading the pack, including the one out tuesday. it's not just republicans taking notice. vice president joe biden is weighing in for the first time.