meaning that donald may look to land some blows tonight. also, expect carly fiorina making her first main stage appearance to come out strong and she is not coy about her strategy either. tonight telling john harwood, quote, mr. trump is going to be hearing quite a lot from me and then the establishment contenders already on the ropes with sagging poll numbers, might see more aggressive posture of bush or walker losing support. the undercard debate, as well, gets under way three hours from now. the last three in the polls looking to stay alive. now, for analysis today, right to david druker, senior correspondent correspondent and john mccormack at bloomberg politics. latest column on scott walker among those to find traction today. good day to both of you. >> hello. >> tell us what you're finding in your reporting and the challenge of so many candidates

overshadowed. >> yeah. well, obviously, there's a lot of subplots tonight and one is scott walker. he is not in a good place in the campaign right now. the number vs sagged more so than anybody in the summer of trump. one time he was a top tier candidate and a terrible august. and he hasn't had that great of a september so far so he really needs to show some drama tonight. he needs to show some strength and his aides say he's ready. donors watching very closely as are voters. you know, a huge number of the electorate in iowa and new hampshire watching. >> david, when you look at how people are, of course, being overshadowed by donald trump and he is quick to point out at the rallies a lot of this is name recognition. people just unfamiliar to a lot of these republican voters, kasich 56%. fiorina 47%.

walker, 44%. they obviously want to simply get noticed. >> yeah. that's really a big deal, ari. in reporting on this race, i was talking to a republican operative who said part of the sprob that trump completely destroyed our media and so a candidate goes on air, the first two questions are about what trump said, the third question about your gaffes or whatever problems you're having in gaining traction. by the way, what are your plans? >> right. >> they have such a hard time getting noticed and means a harder time gaining traction and people know about a couple of candidates running and that's something that they have to use this debate to turn around. they're going to have to force themselves on to the stage. both because they have no other choice and because voters don't reward perceived weakness. >> david, you are using a kind of insider politics term with earned media. how do you explain that? >> well, in other words, you can pay for ads and we'll see a ton

of those, television's unwatchable for some people and talking about earned media, msnbc and being interviewed by you so instead of me a dopey journal itself, you have on jeb bush or scott walker or anybody and not talking about trump and that's earned media and very important to a candidate's strategy for increasing the name i.d. and the support in the race. >> yeah. so, john, speak to that because what we have been hearing about this week in the land of paid media, paid ads, club for growth taking on trump. that's a potential boost to any other candidate really. dropping a million in iowa. we have heard about cruise. and some of the other so-called second tier candidates trying to do some buys. how does that interplay with a debate season that if the last is any indication is dwarfed by these big moments, 208 million plus watching? >> yeah. no. i think we're obviously trump is going to get the bulk of the talk time tonight i would expect and a lot of people are going directly after him.

the paid advertising is going to maybe soften trump up a little bit and most of the buys announced is small. a million dollars in iowa goes a ways and not a ton of money and it's interesting to see if there's more money behind the groups if the candidates are going to start taking trump on directly in paid advertising. they have done some of that on web ads so far and a lot to watch. i tweeted after the last debate that i felt better paying more cable television bill in august because it was so entertaining and there was so much going on. i have a feeling we'll good -- >> it's funny, john, because people who cover this, we're interested in this stuff and we know we like the debates but the outsized numbers suggest something larger happening, whether it's shear volume of candidate tors trump effect as he likes to claim. this was eight to ten times the audience. speak if you will, john, about the role of credibility in

attacks because it's been said, oh well, trump got it easy last time. that's not really true. he faced attacks of people like rand paul but didn't land. does it matter when's doing the attacking? >> i think it matters -- >> john and then david. >> i think it matters who's attacking. i also think it's kind of attack you level. where some of the candidates messed things up and they had good intentions is you attack trump as a fake conservative and people look at him as a celebrity and different politician and don't expect him to be a real conservative. you have to go after him for being an entertainer and un-serious person and soften him up where he's going to take the most offense and try to put him on defense. bobby jindal's actually has the right strategy. the question is whether he's had the big enough mega phone and curious to see tonight if that's what the candidates do. go after him personally for sbg an un-serious narcissistic

candidate. >> john, go ahead. >> i think it is interesting to watch. i think a lot more people going after trump tonight than the first debate. that's already been telegraphed. walker's people said he's going to be more aggressive. all of the candidates are also ready to rebut trump if trump goes after something in terms of walker's record, he will have something in the can ready to rebut that point with. so there will be a lot of back and forth and a lot of it centered around trump and for candidates like walker and bush and rubio, this is harder to do on a stage with 11 people. it's hard to have that seminole moment even in a debate stage of four or five people and much less twice as many. it's a long show tonight. cnn said it's close to three hours of debating and it is a real marathon for the candidates and going to be tired near the end and the reporters tend to focus sort of on the first half of the debate and sometimes start writing the stories and not pay attention to the second half. the second half of the debate, as well, some of the candidates

stamina is tested by the end of this show. >> right. john, you mentioned the desire to create the moments and looking at some of the most resonant moments for debates later on this n this hour. i want to put up something that goes to that point. when you look at the unfavorable ratings of certain candidates, going into tonight's debate, you got some unpopular folks with a lot of party. chris christie, jeb bush. essentially have written off a third and don't have a lot to show for it. donald trump would argue he's written off a third. is the front-runner and polarizing for a first place spot is okay. and again, rand paul being an example. slipped down in support and still as a third of republicans written him off. how does that play out, john, in how they engage each other? >> yeah. well, that's one thing to be interesting to watch tonight, also. ben carson. he is very well liked. he has very low unfavorables. bulk of the republican party

likes him. in iowa, hugely popular. numbers are coming up nationally as people get to know him better. if he wants to confront trump and trump takes on carson which, you know, trump shown a willingness to do a little bit already calling him an okay doctor and demeaning him a little bit, if carson wants to engage in trump and could help him move up in the polls it's a risk of a guy, maybe like a regular politician like i said and not above the fray so much and there's just so many story lines to watch tonight. it's lot to take in. >> so many story lines, david, the other news is vice president biden speaking as explicitly as he ever has confronting what he calls donald trump's xenophobia. this would be a bigger story if it wasn't debate day. >> i don't want anybody to be down right now.

about what's going on in the republican party. i mean, this sincerely now. no. i'm being deadly earnest about this. i want you to remember notwithstanding the fact that there's one guy absolutely denigrating an entire group of people, appealing to the baser side of human nature. working on this notion of xenofophobia in a way that's no occurred in a long time. >> that's the sitting vice president speaking not about a policy difference, about what he says is something wrong with the way trump is come paining. is that going to come up tonight? >> well, it very well could come up. i wouldn't be surprised if trump gets questions about the immigration proposals and plans to round up and deport 11 million to 12 million. he could be speaking as a republican. a number of republicans concerned that he's going to cause long-term damage to the party, he is giving a poor

picture of the party's image, that they have -- that could cost them a generation of voters and one of the reasons so many republicans concerned about trump's progress so far. >> john, last question looking at the differences, last debate was in a giant hall. it was very loud. there was a lot of audience interaction. when you look at the details of this one, at the reagan library, smaller setting, more republican elites and sober-minded folks in the audience which changes some of the dynamics possibly. do you think that matters at all or too much fireworks and too much trump-mentum for those factors to come into play tonight? >> no. that's a factor. the size of the room is so much more intimate, last time it was raw cause arena and it's different tonight. i was out there four years ago for a republican debate and at the time rick perry was leading in the polls and all the stories read that rick perry with a debate performance and it was a

reminder to me that, you know, yes, the election, iowa caucuses, new hampshire primary upon us and there's time left and the room out there is really is a lot smaller, there's an airplane behind them. but they made airplanes smaller than they are today. >> exactly. david, a late night out there for you. i hope you have plenty of coffee. john, as well, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. coming up, more on tonight's debate from a historical perspective. the countdown is on. also, president obama reaching out to the california governor as those fire crews working to try to find some upper hand against these devastating wildfires we have been seeing. also, jon stewart taking capitol hill in support for 9/11 survivors. >> i'm embarrassed that you after serving so selflessly with such heroism have to come down here and convince people to do what's right for the illnesses and difficulties that you

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together, we're building a better california. another story developing now. national guard searching for four missing victims of flash flooding on the border of arizona and utah. 16 pronounced dead and today learning more about who they were. nbc's leann gregg on the arizona side of that border. we have more rain in the forecast. what can you tell us? >> reporter: more rain complicating the search efforts. one of those areas to focus on today, a 7-mile stretch of the

creek bed right here looking for a 6-year-old boy who was last seen in the vehicles that wept into the river on monday killing three women, mothers, sisters and nine children inside the vehicles washed away in the rains. in a separate search in the zion national park looking for three people missing part of a group of seven who got permits on monday morning to go in and do some hiking and warned at the time that conditions could become severe in the afternoon but that happens all the time in this time of the year during monsoon season. they weren't expecting things to become this severe. we're told by officials at the national weather service this was a 100-year event with the volume and pace of the rain that caused this massive flood and the search for them, four people from their group died. they were found on tuesday. the bodies of those victims. so again, a very serious and very sad day for the community

all across southern utah. the people if they are not found alive, which there is still some amount of hope but feared to be dead, the death toll could rise to 20 people within 24 hours. ari? >> leanne gregg, thank you so much. turning to the raging wildfires in california. 800 homes are lost. fire crews saying they're starting to gain ground. on the ground for us is nbc's jinah kim. what can you tell us there? >> reporter: it is cold and rainy for a change here in middletown and that has the evacuees ecstatic, ari, even though sheltering in tents and really shouldn't be happy about the mud going to be coming their way and firefighters are taking advantage of this break in the weather to try to break this fire, especially because starting tomorrow temperatures are going to go up and we're going to have dry conditions again for the foreseeable future. as far as the numbers stand, 800

or so number you gave for the homes. in all about 1,000 homes, buildings, businesses have been lost between this, the valley fire, as well as the butte fire that's burning just east of us but firefighters warn that that number will go up as they get more accurate damage assessment. and the lives lost count could also go up. right now we are at one person confirmed dead here in this fire. but there are several people that we learned are still missing including a former newspaper reporter who lived here in this community. as far as the evacuees, no one is allowed back in just yet. just for emergency supplies or feed their animals but otherwise about 13,000 people remain evacua evacuated. ari? >> thank you for your reporting on that. this is interesting. jon stewart getting in there and pushing congress to extend funding for 9/11 first responders who were sickened

after working on the pile at ground zero. nbc's luke res sert is at the capital. luke, this is another big story, somewhat overshadowed by tonight's debate and an important one as you know. jon stewart has been out on this issue before. tell us what's going on. >> reporter: you remember, ari, back in 2010, this issue really was going to be swept underneath the rug and thousands of first responders were not going to get access to the health care funds they needed and jon stewart essentially shamed congress to provide the funds and set to expire starting in october and throughout the next years when they'll all be gone. i asked jon stewart here on the hill why of all the issues he spoke about on his tv program necessary to come to the hill to advocate for this one. >> literally the least week do that they don't have to be insecure about the medicine they're going to need to treat illnesses that have been

scientifically shown, the doctor is here, and the studies have been shown, proven links to 9/11. i just -- look. i have studied all this from afar for a long time. to see the inaction in action hard. >> reporter: so, ari, you hear from jon stewart. as far as what will congress do? it remains to be seen. this bill does need to be reauthorized if they get the funds they need but congress is facing a packed schedule. they have to fund the government by the end of this month. they also have to fund the highway trust fund. there's talk about -- amongst conservatives of defunding planned parenthood and raise the debt limit and unclear when it makes it on the congressional calendar. what's good news about the first responders is that this bill unlike the one in 2010 does have more bipartisan support. conservative members of congress such as tom cotton of arkansas in support of this and one thing

that they said against it, as well, funds from existing programs and perhaps too new york sen trick. this is stewart's way of saying these are the first veterans in the war on terror. not only do they deserve the funds, they were told that what they were breathing at ground zero was staff and later that was not the case. >> yeah. luke, a lot of folks on the other side of that issue would say, it's new york sen trick because the terrorism that occurred and a lot of sacrifice that then occurred also new york sen trick. i wonder if you could tell us when's the reception to what jon stewart's doing there on the hill? >> reporter: he went to a meeting of senate democrats and was cheered loudly and republicans i have spoken to say that he certainly packs a punch. remember, stewart doesn't aggressively lobby congress for most any issue. he is particular about this one. i do think at the end of the day it makes a difference, ari. might not be the next month or two or harrowing toward the end and be surprised given the

amount of support that this has received today on a bipartisan basis of key republicans and tweets of presidential candidate hillary clinton that this isn't figured out by december it makes a difference. we'll see. nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to and can be shocking, my friend. >> a potential impact according to what you're seeing thus far. luke russert, thank you for joining. >> take care. up next, the fed weighing a possible rate hike. what would it mean for you? it would be the first in nearly a decade. we'll keep you posted. also, political outsiders taking center stage, of course, at the debate tonight. how will they make history like their predecessors? what can we learn from what happened in the past? i know... we could have one of those. one? are you kidding? we'll end up eating like thirty. wanna split that?

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welcome back. we have a market alert. half an hour to the close. stocks up across the bore. investors anxiously awaiting big news on that possible interest

rate hike. the fed is meeting right now behind closed doors as they do and announcing that decision within 24 hours. speculation all over the place on wall street. you know how wall street loves uncertainty. no, they don't. a rate hike the first in almost a decade. here to give us a best guess and what it means for you, your money. hey, guys. >> hey. >> hi. >> up or down and why? >> i think it's going to stay exactly as it is at zero. why? because the fed hasn't necessarily fulfilled the mandate which means the labor market is in humming along the way it should be perhaps and maybe we could see a little bit more growth in the economy before we put a damper on it which is what the fed would do. >> i think that's right. it will come soon and not come at this meeting. when you look, you can look at financial markets an see what people trading bonds think is going to happen with interest rates.

if they think they're going to go up and don't want to buy bonds out there, the ones in a few days to pay an interest rates and look at the markets saying, about a 25% chance of a rate hike at this meeting. further out, up and up and probably get it by the end of the year and i think lynette is right. the economy is not that strong and people think the fed will agree with that. >> you're saying people with skin in the game and put money down on this right now believe there will not be a hike coming out of the meeting. >> or probably not a hike. 25% chance is 1 in 4. entirely possible -- >> 25% is 1 in 4? >> yes, yeah. in general. totally specific. >> i don't think you have to get that complicated, though. you can look at what the fed said it wants. 25% unemployment. you want a good wage for americans. we haven't seen the wage growth

we think the fed wants to see and probably growing u.s. economy. and that's kind of been shaky. we have been revising up, seeing anemic numbers and if the fed is not fulfilling the mandate, janet yellen doesn't care. >> you hear the term of full unemployment and two years away from that, what does that mean? >> we are fine with the employment. what we need to focus on now is wage growth. we need americans to make the money that makes the economy run. the u.s. economy is run on buying sneakers, extra cash to go on vacation and right now americans aren't making the wages to be able to do the things they did before the financial crisis. >> yeah. that's right. i would say there's one thing that weighs against all of this that cuts in favor of a rate hike. we have been at a zero rate more than five years and you want

positive interest rates is hitting a recession the fed cuts again to boost the economy so i think the policymakers at the fed would like to get away from the zero rate. i think good arguments to wait and probably wait a little bit longer but a certain antsiness by the folks at the fed to say the economy is returning back to normal and there's an urge to do a rate hike to demonstrate that the fed is not stuck at zero forever and raising interest rates doesn't mean -- >> lynette's putting the brakes on. >> because i don't think janet yellen's a kind of woman. janet yellen is going to do what she has to do when she sees the evidence. she's shown so far -- in june could have raised rates. the evidence wasn't necessarily there or the economy strong enough and had the same pressure and didn't do it. the numbers weren't there for her. that's just -- you know, we have to look at the person running the fed, as well. at this point, and i think economists will agree with this across the board, the fed can do more harm raising interest rates

early than do good by raising them early so this is -- the risk is more in too early than too late. >> another thing of impact is effect on seniors who may have built their savings and portfolio plans around normal. this is not normal. rates are too low. >> i think that's overstated for a couple of reasons. yes, higher interest rates mean more income off the savings account but a mortgage or credit card debt then you have to pay more on those. for consumers, it is a mixed bag. the thing that produces returns in the long run is economic terms and that can only be because there's a lot of demand for capital. people wanting to borrow money to invest it in new business enterprises. the fed can't create that situation. all sorts of other economic actors around the world to do that. so the fed can't just make seniors richer. i don't think that's a good reason for a rate hike. >> i think right now, the fed

has done a lot for our economy. it's been the only adult in the room. sorry, congress. for years and years and years and so right now if we're going to start looking for ways to boost the economy, we have the look outside the fed to actually policies solutions and you can't -- janet yellen can't do it for you. >> let me ask a different question. a lot of folks remember larry summers, somewhat controversial advise tore the president talked about for this role. right? is this the kind of situation now that we see her tenure, you talked about the kind of woman she is, are we seeing something that's drastically different than we would have gotten from him? >> it's interesting he is saying the fed should not hike rates. a conversation had back when the president deciding whether to put larry summers or janet yellen in the position is people afraid that summers would be too much of a hawk on monetary policy, too eager to hike rates and interesting he is staked out this very public, very dovish position.

>> let me jump in there. do we know, they do the little secret meeting as i mentioned at the top. do we know what they look to? they look to their evidence and data and we have the board minutes, right? >> we do know. >> do they look to commentary and what larry summers thinks? >> looking at economists and opinions about the economy. one thing is inflation. you know? they have a 2% target set for that. we're not there yet. we know what think look at and discussing. probably reading a lot of same academic research people on wall street and journalists like we are reading, as well. at the end of the day, all of these individual people have their own conceptions about what our economy should look like. we know what that is and this is a brave new world. no one's ever seen this before. >> final thought. >> i think if you talk to people at the fed they tell you that they don't look at outside pressure like this. they focus on the fundamentals.

comments like the ones of summers insulate that because there's so many hawkish voices and have been for years saying the fed needs to raise interest rates, blaming the fed for creating economic problems by keeping rates too long for too long and the diversity of voices sort of creates space for them to do whatever they think is appropriate and say, well, either way somebody's going to criticize us. >> thank you both. clashes erupt in this ongoing migrant crisis. looking at that. police firing teargas. also, who will make history for better or worse tonight? some great tape to show you. that's next.

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use clorox disinfecting products. you handle life; clorox handles the germs. we are back. here's what's going on. tensions flared i long the border of serbia and hungary. police destrployed teargas and water cannons. they hurtled stones at the

police. hungary appealing for serbia to take action for those that attack police. some in serbia calling on the international community to be involved on when's a blocked border. meanwhile here at home, an appeals court agreed to halt the execution of a colorado man scheduled to die this hour. he claims he was framed for the 1997 beating death of his boss. ayman mohyeldin will have more on this next hour. stay tuned for this. we turn back to the republican debate tonight and just a few hours all eyes will be on that reagan presidential library, 15 candidates participated in two debates. trying to get a performance like carly fiorina did last time which propelled her into a main stage tonight. >> i started as a secretary. and became ultimately the chief executive of the largest technology company in the world. almost $90 billion and over 150

countries. i know personally how extraordinary and unique this nation is. i think to be commander in chief in the 21st century requires someone that understands how the economy works, someone who understands how the world works and who's in it. >> that performance clearly resonated and as ben carson proved in the first debate, a memorable line can make all the difference. >> i'm the only one to separate si siamese twins. only one to operate on babies while in the mother's womb. only one to take out half of a brain but you would think in washington someone beat me to it. >> not bad. here to help us to put the event in historical perspective, we have alan lickman. good data you. >> good day. >> i want to show some other great moments an see in the brief ones that we saw how much it makes a difference. it is not the campaign ads, it is not the polling crap.

it's seeing present themselves and their ideas. what are you looking for tonight? >> well, unfortunately, i have to call this the glass nearly all empty debate because if you listen to all of the commentary and you followed the history of these other debates, no one is saying, watch this debate because you are going to see powerful solutions to the biggest problems facing the country. crumbling infrastructure. low wages. the gap between rich and poor. the real threat of a livable environment. instead, they're talking about who's going to have the one liner whorks's going to go after donald trump, when's going to have the flash. sadly, the history of debates shows that it usually is either the zinging one-liner or the big mistake. >> right. let's -- >> not the policy answer that matters. >> i appreciate the point you're making because the deeper conversation and debate over policy certainly is significant

but real about how these things work and pick presidents, not just this crazy reality show cycle that you say the zingers long mattered. here's a famous one that people might remember. >> i have far more experience than many others that sought the office of vice president of this country. i have as much experience in the congress as jack kennedy did when he sought the presidency. i will be prepared to deal with the people in the bush administration if that unfortunate event could ever occur. >> senator benson? >> senator, i served with jack kennedy. i knew jack kennedy. jack kennedy was a friend of mine. senator, you're no jack kennedy. >> withering dan quayle never really fullied recovered from that. who tells donald trump he is no

ronald reagan? >> i think everyone will try to tell donald trump he is no ronald reagan. and he isn't a ronald reagan. he's a very different kind of candidate. you know, ronald reagan was kind of the smiling conservative. he's the more snarling conservative coming out of a different mold. and you don't have to be ronald reagan to become the republican nominee. nobody has since -- but here's the game i think everybody should play. how many times is ronald reagan's name going to be invoked and who's going to be the leader in invoking ronald reagan most often? but you got to understand, you know, trump may be no ronald reagan but he's no dan quayle either. he is not just going to sit back and take these attacks. >> no, sir. >> he has a kevlar vests. none of the attacks have hit him. >> another theory going back to histo history, the idea of not being about washington runs back a long ways.

the outsider angle. here's george w. bush who, of course, came from a legacy just like jeb bush, and yet, his big pitch was that he wasn't washington. >> i want to thank my friends here in iowa. i'm honored to have your support. i appreciate all the work you're doing on my behalf. i come to your state not from washington from outside. a state called texas. >> ev got a record not of rhetoric but a record of results. >> how important is that tonight for these candidate who is say they're not washington as usual? >> yeah. everyone is sort of come peetding with everybody else to run as far from the capital as possible. and historically that goes back to the 1820s. who was the first outsider candidate? andrew jackson. the candidate of the common folk. the candidate of the new west, the first president who wasn't from the virginia dynasty or the massachusetts dynasty. so this idea of the outsider is as old as the republic and the truth is the republicans never nominate outsiders.

george w. bush was no outsider. governor of texas. part of a political family. who's the last outsider of the republicans nominated? i challenge anyone to name that person. >> who was it? >> none. that's my point. the closest is barry goldwater kind of an outsider because he ran against the mainstream of the republican party but he, of course, a senator of arizona. all been senators, govern nofrs or vice presidents or dwight eisenhower, a great general and a war hero. you know, outsiders flash like cain, last time. but they don't tend to last in the republican party but maybe breaking the mold this time. >> that's a great point of who's getting the attention where the nomination usually heads. the other big clip to play and one you know, shows that even in old primary debates, long before trump, people with a flare of theater, acti ining in them, co

get attention talking about strength and not policy. here's vintage ronald reagan in a primary debate. >> would the sound man please turn reagan's mike off for the moment? >> is this on? mr. green -- >> you turn that microphone off, please? >> this is -- >> i am paying for this microphone! >> i paid for this microphone. deafening applause. that wasn't about what he stood for or going to do for the country. it was about the legacy of ronald reagan as a man or a myth. how important are those moments in these debates? >> those moments are of critical importance. you know, ronald reagan was perhaps of all presidential candidates best at the zinger, one-liner. and he didn't have to be accurate or get the name of the moderator right. it didn't matter because every

time he issued one of those one-liners right to the heart and it seemed new and fresh. so, while i would extort these candidates to talk real policy i know they won't, so here's my advice to them. figure out in advance what your one-liner is going to be. that's all you're going to get. not getting anymore than that on national television and not getting anymore attention than that. as we saw in all these clips playing the one-liners. you know, when's interesting, you heard ben carson who comes off as humble and pius. i know ben carson from a long time going back to the maryland debates over abortion. people talk about, you know, donald trump being a dangerous candidate. ben carson, despite the soft speaking is vastly more dangerous. >> why? >> he is one of the guy who is pretends to be pius and humble and has no moral compass whatsoever and compared barack obama to adolph hitler which shows no moral sense and no sense of history.

whatever you may think of barack obama, he didn't kill 6 million jews, didn't start a war that killed 67 million persons. only someone who's clueless morally and historically would do that. >> well, you're referencing a record of statements and positions as you say. ben carson getting a close-up but not the attacks that go into the record of anyone in the front-runner-ship sometimes get that scrutiny understand part of the record you're references there. professor, thank you as always. >> any time. straight ahead, hot topic coming up tonight, we can bet on that. immigration. donald trump talks a lot about hispanic immigrants but we have an author here, a next guest with context saying when's going on is more complicated and more global. you're going to want to hear this. to clean the oceans, to start a movement, or lead a country. it may not be obvious yet,

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google search: bodega beach house. ♪ ♪ everyone knows immigration has been a flash point issue this election. we'll likely hear more about it at that debate tonight. but jeb bush is releasing a brand-new bilingual campaign ad featuring, for the first time, his wife, columba. [ speaking spanish ] >> i have lived more than half my life here. so, you know, i agree that we all have the same interests, the same feelings.

[ speaking spanish ] >> the ad appealing to hispanic-americans reflects the political power of this changing electorate. think about this. in 1970, less than 1 in 20 people living in the united states were foreign born. today, that number is one in eight. this second great wave of immigration started 50 years ago next month when president johnson signed the 1965 immigration and naturalization act. and for all the focus now coming on those from mexico and often political focus, there's a new book, "a nation of nations" where author tom jelten paints a diverse and complicated portrait of what's happening in america. hi, tom. thanks for joining us. >> hi, ari. good to be here. >> let me start with the basic point that you explore which is that lbj's tenure is remembered for many things. and on the domestic side, the civil rights, voting rights, economic empowerment agenda.

and yet you say that '65 immigration act has huge decades-long consequences that clearly in some of the debates today we don't fully understand. >> that's right. it came out of that same civil rights spirit, that all people should be judged equally and not on the basis of their race or ancestry. prior to '65, u.s. immigration policy was heavily slanted in an official way, people from northern and western europe, the quota system that enforced that was taken away by that act and basically put people of all nationalities, all national origins on an equal basis. and as you suggested, you know, in 1960, seven out of eight immigrants were coming from europe. now nine out of ten immigrants are coming from outside europe. so this act really changed the complexion of america. >> right. i mean, part of what you're tracing is that it was policy that shifted that, that people have long wanted to come to the united states from all over the world, partly because, to put it bluntly, we have a great country.

and yet the thumb was on the scale to prefer europeans? >> well, that's right. you know, there's been kind of a myth, ari, among americans for more than 200 years that we're this country that's open to everybody where everybody gets a fresh start. it's a nation of opportunity. but the truth is that for nearly 200 years, you know, the more powerful voice was that we're actually a european country. we're a country with an anglo-saxon heritage, a country with a christian heritage. and it was really only in 1965 that the country took this step of bringing the reality into accord with the promise and really committed to a multicultural america for the first time, really, in official terms. >> yeah. so you talk about multicultural america. we've been talking about the rules. let's talk about the people. you zero in on this one virginia suburb. tell us about that. >> right. well, fairfax county in northern virginia is one of those parts of america -- and there are many of them -- one of those parts of america that's been dramatically transformed by immigration. today, close to one out of three

residents of fairfax county were born outside the united states. in 1960, it was like 0.1%. so you've had this huge influx of people from all over and not just hispanics or asians but people from all over the world who have had to learn to live together in the power structure in fairfax county has had to adjust to them. it's really been an interesting -- it was for me a really interesting case study of how immigration has changed america and how our institutions have had to deal with that. >> and how do people who come to this country self-identify in that way? what did you find in that? because we've been in this election season where there's been talk about the demagoguing but not every immigrant family, from wherever they may be from, wants to fixate even on that part of their identity. a lot of people want to be naturalized, become american citizens and move forward. >> if you want to be like everybody else, you're not going to be like everybody else.

if you come from a different religious background, if you come from a different cultural background, there's no way that you can assimilate, to use the old-fashioned term, into a sort of a dominant culture that you're really not a part of. so even for those people who are determined to be patriotic, full-fledged american citizens, you know, they are from a different background. and, you know, they're proud of that, and they're not going to abandon that, and they really can't abandon that. >> tom, joe biden was comparing what trump's been saying about immigrants, the know-nothing party of the 19th century. do you agree with that? >> you know what, ari, for the first time we're actually seeing the immigration debate shift from a debate about illegal immigrants and undocumented immigrants to be even legal immigrants. are we taking in too many legally? are we taking in the wrong kind of people? we are seeing, in this campaign season, some allusions to those broader questions about immigration that we really hadn't touched before.

>> thanks, tom, for telling us about your book. >> thank you, ari. >> ayman mohyeldin picks up the coverage next. he's going to speak to the lauer of that oklahoma death row inmate with that last-minute stay of execution. a lot of news. keep it here on msnbc. reduce bad cholesterol and feel fuller longer. make exercise fun by hiking to new places or biking with friends. add citrus or strawberry slices to your water for a tasty way to stay hydrated. and relieve stress after a long day by meditating or playing with your pets. brought to you by aleve. all day strong, all day long with 12-hour strength. spirits but there's a growing pain in his lower back. as lines grow longer, his pain continues to linger.

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gop fight night in california. we are just hours away from round two of the republican debate at the reagan library. the candidates are signaling there could be plenty of fireworks. >> i'm going to mix it up because i like to rumble. >> i think mr. trump's going to be hearing quite a lot from me. >> i hear they're all going after me. whatever. whatever. texas-sized controversy. a ninth grader named ahmed muhammed is arrested at school for a homemade clock he brought to show his teachers. police said it was a suspected hoax bomb. now thousands are rallying behind him all the way up to the oval office. and jon stewart takes to capitol hill trying to shame congress into extending health care funding for 9/11 first responders. >> i'm embarrassed for our country. i'm embarrassed for new york. i'm embarrassed that you, after serving so selflessly, with such heroism, have to come down here