debate stage, taking a look at his podium. earlier today, he went to church according to his campaign. and he also got in a little exercise, taking a hike with family members here in california and tweeting out a little friendly competition with his son, jeb bush jr., saying that they went on a great mile-long -- couple-mile-long hike here in california this morning. >> nbc campaign news embeds, thank you for keeping us posted. that does it for me. jonathan capehart picks up our live coverage next. good evening. i'm jonathan capehart. tonight, it's debate night in america. we're just hours away from what promises to be a showdown from the republican presidential candidates. and we're going to pregame it all. an hour from now, the seco second-tier republican debate will begin at the reagan library in simi valley, california. the kids' table will feature george pataki, rick santorum,

bobby jindal and lindsey graham. on average, none of these guys has cracked 1% in the polls. rick perry would have been in attendance if he hadn't ended his campaign last week. now, the main event starts at 8:00 p.m. eastern and will finish sometime before tomorrow. 11 candidates square off, and 10 of them will be trying to chip away at donald trump's lead. tonight, all eyes will be on dr. ben carson. a new cbs news/"new york times" poll shows carson just four points behind. right now he's the only candidate who has a shot at overtaking the donald. however, this poll also reveals that 39% of republican primary voters and caucusgoers see donald trump as their best shot at winning the presidency. basically, other republican candidates have a whole lot of work to do. during the last fox news debate, carson didn't receive as much air time as other candidates. at one point, carson went 37 minutes without a question.

but when carson did get a chance to speak, the crowd loved him. he had no problem going after hillary clinton in that first debate. >> she counts on the fact that people are uninformed. the alinski model. the way i'll come at it is to educate people, help people understand that it is that progressive movement that is causing them the problems. you know, you look at the national debt and how it's being driven up. if i was trying to destroy this country, what i would do is find a way to drive wedges between all the people, drive the debt to an unsustainable level, and then step off the stage as a world leader and let our enemies increase while we decreased our capacity as a military person, and that's what she's doing. >> the crowd also loved dr. carson's response about growing racial tension in america.

>> we have the purveyors of hatred who take every single incident between people of two races and try to drive wedges into people. and this does not they'd to be done. what we need to think about instead, you know, i was asked by an npr reporter once, why don't i talk about race that often? i said, it's because i'm a neurosurgeon. and she thought that was a strange response. and you say -- i said, you see, when i take someone to the operating room, i'm actually operating on the thing that makes them who they are. the skin doesn't make them who they are. the hair doesn't make them who they are. and it's time for us to move beyond that. because, you know, our strength as a nation comes in our unity. >> now, a key thing to watch for at tonight's debate, how the donald reacts to the doctor. there's little doubt trump will outshine him, but if carson can score some subtle points along the way, he could overtake trump

in the polls and become the new republican front-runner. remember, carson's current surge started after last month's debate. let us know what you think about this topic. tonight's question, do you think ben carson will beat donald trump in tonight's debate? logon to pulse.msnbc.com and cast your vote. we'll share your response later in the show. for more, let had he bring in brad woodhouse, general nieve wood, senior contributor with "the daily signal," and ryan darling, senior vice president with third dimension strategies, and former communications director for senator rand paul. general nieve, let me start with you. does dr. carson have a chance here to overtake trump? >> well, i think we've learned in this campaign anything is possible, jonathan. and look, i want to say about ben carson, even though you're right, he seemed to zoom up after the last election, ben carson has had a base of support for actually quite some time. a lot of conservatives have liked him for a long time, going

way back when he talked at the prayer breakfast a couple of years ago. >> 2013. >> and i think they weren't sure he could maybe get into the race and really have success. but now that they're seeing that, i think people are very gung ho about him, and i think donald trump, he might want to be careful to attack somebody so many people have a positive view of. >> yeah, brian, i was going to ask you, how should -- well, let me reverse it. if dr. carson is attacked by donald trump, how should carson handle that? >> he should fight back. i mean, it's amazing that we're going to have a debate tonight where you have the two front-runners have a combined 50% of the electorate that's polling supporting them and everybody else is nowhere near those numbers. jeb bush isn't even cracking so%. you have governor scott walker of wisconsin who's down depending on the poll you look at. this is going to be a great, fascinating debate to see if jeb

bush and scott walker can get back on their feet and how these two new front-runners who are not political veterans, they're not politicians, how are they going to handle being front-runners? it's going to be great to watch. >> brad, how should donald trump respond to ben carson tonight? i'm not expecting ben carson to attack donald trump, but he will have to respond to him in some way, don't you think, tonight? >> well, he might, but i'll tell you what. if i were advising either one of them, i would say stay the course. they have both done well not attacking each other and instead letting their kind of anti-establishment credentials, you know, win the day. i especially think carson has momentum coming into this debate. and i think he should -- you know, there's an adage in basketball, let the ball come to you. and i think he would be smart to do that. and then i think, you know, trump will be trump. i think the real test is can any of the others break out, and are they going to do that by attacking trump? they tried it last time, some of

them, rand paul tried it. it wasn't effective. so i think the real expectations are on everyone below carson and trump tonight. >> well, right. genevieve, i was going to ask you, who do you think has the most to gain tonight? >> well, honestly, i think maybe carly fiorina in some respects. i mean, jeb bush and scott walker and these folks all need to get in there, but, you know, she's there because of how well she did last time and surprised people who didn't know who she was. so she's gotten a lot more media coverage, if you will, after that than she had gotten before. so i think a lot of people are going to be looking at her for the first time. and she set a high bar for herself. if she does well again, i think you're going to see her continue to rise in the polls as well. >> you know, brian, how could this end badly for trump tonight, if that's even possible? i mean, we've watched him rise in the polls doing things that would have killed anybody else's candidacy. so is there -- what's the

pitfall here for trump, if there is one tonight? >> oh, there is one. i mean, look what happened. we had a campaign the last election cycle where a candidate, rick perry, just melted down in the middle of his debate. it ended his political career. he could not run for president again and crack into the reasonable percentage points. so we could have a meltdown. he could just completely bobble one of the questions. one of the things he'll have to watch out for is how he deals with fiorina. he made fun of her appearance. she's been dealing with it perfectly. she's had a great message and response. how does she deal with that? he can bully the guys a lot easier than he can one of the female candidates for president. >> right. brad, "the new york times" poll today had this startling number. and i want to get your response to the fact that 39% of republican primary voters and caucusgoers say that donald trump is their best shot at the white house. >> yeah, exactly. and look, this is the train wreck. and frankly, this is why i'm

going to enjoy this debate so much tonight. this is the train wreck for the republican party. i mean, what donald trump has tapped into is not just anti-establishment. it's xenophobia. it's bigotry, like we've seen in kentucky with kim davis, and this is the direction that the republican party is going. i mean, since the last debate, jonathan, we've had anchor babies, birthright citizenship, this bigotry in kentucky against lgbt americans. we've had more climate change denialism. and this is -- you know, the positions that killed the last republican nominee. but it seems like republican candidates this year are willing to lose the general election -- >> that's not true. >> no. >> that is not true. >> jonathan -- >> genevieve -- >> could i just say -- >> let's bring genevieve and brian into this conversation. >> let me just say this. i'm sure that msnbc is not guilty of this, but there was a recent study done on cnn's coverage of the candidates, donald trump has gotten 78% of

all their political coverage. the other 16 republican candidates have had to divide out the rest. and even when they're covered, half the time it's talking about how well they're doing against trump. so a lot of this has to do with all the free air time, frankly, that he's getting, not just the things that mr. woodhouse just laid out there. and look, he's saying a lot of things that a lot of americans agree with. we need to get control of our borders. washington's not working the way that it should, that we're getting outsmarted by other countries. a lot of americans agree with that. whether he can deliver and how he would fix it is a different story. but i don't think those are wacky brian, i have to say, the is a way to talk about illegal immigration without talking about a whole group of people being racist. as a way to talk about and criticize a female journalist, female entertainer, female fellow republican candidate without diving into misogyny.

brian, your response to the fact that 39% of the republican party thinks that they can win the white house with a candidate who espouses views that brian laid out and i just laid out and that we've been watching since august? >> i truly believe that if you look back four years, you had other -- you had rick perry in first place and then herman cain. i consider this a stage where republican voters are dating. they have not settled on a candidate. they think trump's got a chance to win because he's doing so well in the polls. and they're seeing that he's got a lot of money and they know he can spend it. but we're so early in the process. when you have a guy who's at 27%, that means you have the very high percentage, 73%, that aren't supporting this guy yet. so there's a long way to go. 94% not supporting jeb bush, i mean, by that token. i mean, look. you had nothing like this in -- you had nothing like this in 2012.

no one at this stage was leading in the republican primary in new hampshire, in iowa and nationally by this margin. and trump has held this lead to some degree or another now for two months. >> right, but the democrats have a socialist who's winning their polls right now. i don't think anybody thinks bernie sanders is a lock to win the democratic primaries. >> i agree with that. >> he's 20 points over hillary in new hampshire. >> yes, that is true. we're going to have to leave that part of the conversation here. brad woodhouse, thanks for your time, genevieve and brian, you're going to come back later. ahead this hour, carly fiorina promises to give donald trump an earful at tonight's debate. we'll look at that matchup next. and the stage is set. we'll tell you what to watch for during tonight's debate. stay tuned. everyone loves the picture

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wisconsin governor scott walker will probably have his hands full dealing with donald trump tonight. but this is far from the first time he's had to go back and

forth with a controversial high-profile figure. talking points memo has uncovered footage from 1992 of a 24-year-old walker debating former grand wizard of the kkk in louisiana state representative david duke. the topic, whether duke should be allowed on wisconsin's presidential primary ballot. here's a clip. >> you're prediction, i guess, if you will for january 28th of what the committee will vote? >> we're certainly hoping it's going to be a majority opposed putting him on the ballot. >> we will find out. scott walker, thank you very much. >> shame on you, scott walker. >> david duke, thank you. ven? oh yeah. i can almost taste it now. tastes like victory. and pepperoni... ♪ 800,000 hours of supercomputing time, 3 million lines of code, 40,000 sets of eyes, or a million sleepless nights. whether it's building the world's most advanced satellite,

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fight. donald trump and carly fiorina have taken shots at each other on the campaign trail, but this is the first time they'll meet face to face. trump has moved from criticizing fiorina's face to her business record. fiorina was forced out of hewlett-packard in 2005 after a tumultuous tenure as ceo. trump calls her time at hp a disaster. >> she had tremendously -- you could call it bad luck. you could call it -- she did a bad job. but hewlett-packard was a disaster. and lucent, the company she was at before hewlett-packard, was a disaster. and these were two disastrous reigns. her persona is she hasn't done a good job, and you could call it the private sector. >> trump, of course, has no trouble trumpeting his own business experience. >> i've made over $10 billion net net net. i've created a tremendous company. i have some of the greatest assets in the world. and to be honest with you,

that's the kind of mindset -- i'm not saying that to brag. i'm just saying that's the kind of mindset that our country needs. >> but carly fiorina isn't backing down. she says her job as the head of a publicly traded company meant accountabili accountability and standards a privately owned company doesn't have to meet. >> donald trump and i are in a different business. he's in the entertainment business. in the business i was in, we had to report our results publicly, and if i misrepresented those results or those projections, i could be held criminally liable. >> i think he said in some court case, everybody does it in terms of inflating the value -- >> actually, everybody doesn't do it. because if i had done it, i could have gone to jail. so those are his standards. i think my standards are what the american people would appreciate. >> tonight the two will finally have the chance to debate their records in person. i'm joined again by genevieve wood, senior contributor to "the daily signal" and former rnc spokesperson, and let's bring in ruth coniff, editor in chief of

"progressive." can carly fiorina pack a punch against donald and the other candidates? >> well, i think she proved last time around that she packed enough punch in the first debate. she jumped to the big boys debate. >> the main stage. >> the main stage debate that she's going to be in tonight. and look, we talked about in the earlier segment when donald trump made comments about how she looked, i know he said it was something different, but i think we all know he was commenting about her looks, she came out, i think, very strongly, not getting into the dirt with him, but put out a great ad that i think has played very well with women and talks about what's really important in the campaign. look, i think this is going to be very interesting to watch. and i think the two of them talking about how business works and how you can apply those principles to running the government more effectively would be quite interesting. and i'd love to see how she takes him on with that. >> you know, ruth, as genevieve just pointed out, donald trump has had lots of problems when

discussing women including fiorina and megyn kelly and rosie o'donnell. but does he need to tread lightly on the stage tonight? >> i'm not sure that anybody can make donald trump tread lightly anywhere, even his own advisers. so i think it's going to be really interesting to see what happens tonight. and i think it's no accident that carly fiorina is the biggest beneficiary of the trump phenomenon. the other candidates have suffered greatly. carly fiorina is where she is partly because trump is such an obnoxious spokesperson for sexism. and i agree, her ad is brilliant. it gives you this positive feeling about female empowerment, and i think that that more positive message exposes the problem with donald trump, which is that he is going to magnify the republican gender gap like no candidate before him. not to mention losing the latino vote. it's a disaster in a general election to have donald trump from the perspective of the republican party. and that carly fiorina phenomenon aided by trump is something that the republicans should really pay close attention to.

>> you know, one of the things carly fiorina is going to probably have to answer for tonight is her business record. we played a clip of donald trump taking a whack at her, her tenure at hewlett-packard. do you think carly fiorina -- this question's for you, genevieve -- do you think fiorina's business record is a positive or a negative for her? >> well, i think it all depends on who's telling the story like most stories, there's two sides to them. and a lot of people think that carly fiorina was one of the very first women to break through that glass ceiling when it comes to getting to the "fortune" top 100 companies and running them. and a lot of people said after they sleft, hp benefited from many of the implementations that she put in. i think she'll be able to defend her record on that. how much they'll get into that, i don't know. because they're the only two candidates who really have that background. one thing i want to say, jonathan, to pick up on what ruth said, if donald trump does fall, he makes a big mistake and, you know, somebody else has to step in, i think carly really could benefit because not only does she have the business

background, all the things that he talks about, she's an outsider like he's been, she's actually known to be much more of a conservative than he is. and i think that's going to play well with a lot of folks. because she could really step in if trump has a stumble here. >> both of you, does carly fiorina even need to attack donald trump or go toe to toe with him, you know, businessperson to businessperson? couldn't she just stand on that stage and stand behind what she has to say in her views on a whole host of issues without ever even mentioning donald trump's name? >> i think carly fiorina, like ben carson, is going to look like a more rational person than donald trump. and if both of them make jokes about donald trump or sort of seem good-humored and gentle towards him but more sane, i think that's probably their best strategy. on the business front, i don't think we're going to hear a whole lot of substance on the way that carly fiorina ran her business or the way that trump

ran his. i think this is going to be just kind of a mash fest tonight. >> what's your view, genevieve? >> well, i think she's right. i mean, like i said, the other candidates have different backgrounds. it's not fair just to focus on the business back ground. i think that's something that will come out the longer this goes and if they both continue to stay high in the polls. i think if i were fiorina, i would stick to talking about what i want to talk about, not getting into throwing punches with trump, stand up to him if he says something, but look, i think all these folks, this is -- you know, trump and carson are going to be right next to each other. so they're probably going to get most of the questions. but we saw even last time, you can make the most of whatever time you're given. ben carson did that. it will be interesting to see who else does it tonight. >> genevieve, a question specifically to you real fast. jeb bush, can he survive a poor performance at tonight's debate? >> a poor performance, it depends on how poor it is. i mean, look. well, jeb bush has a lot of

money. and he's got a big name and a lot of backers. and so he can stay in longer and continue fighting more than, like, a rick perry did who just recently dropped out. i think it will be easier for him to not have a great performance tonight and still remain relevant here. if he has a really bad performance, i don't think anybody's going to be able to stand up to that. >> genevieve wood and ruth conniff, thanks for joining us. california's lieutenant governor delivers a message to donald trump on immigration. and the candidates at the kids' table debate aren't the only ones risking irrelevance. find out which candidates have the most to lose. they are the natural born enemy of the way things are.

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who knows, one of these kids just might be the one. to clean the oceans, to start a movement, or lead a country. it may not be obvious yet, but one of these kids is going to change the world. we just need to make sure she has what she needs. welcome to windows 10. the future starts now for all of us. as the gop debate looms, wreed li we'd like to take a poemt to examine the bottom of the barrel. on friday we said good-bye to the indicted and irreplaceable rick perry. now we're taking a look at the candidates who may follow in his footsteps. while everyone eagerly awaits the banter between the front-runners, the true stars of the debate may be the ones literally represented by

asterisks in the polls. nationally, lindsey graham and bobby jindal are each polling at less than 0.5%, according to this cbs news/"new york times" poll. and this might be the reason why. >> we do need to make america great again. we do need to fire everybody in washington. we do, in fact, need to get rid of police department cal corruptness. >> our friends are no longer afraid of belief in us and our enemies don't expect us. until you change that, you're never going to fix anything. >> and rick perry may have to hold the door open for a few other candidates as well. scott walker took -- well, basically, his campaign kpla collapsed. chris christie is clinging onto the loneliest number. in 2012, he nearly stole the spotlight from mitt romney. now christie is decidedly out of style. he's no longer fighting with teachers unions. he's now fighting to stay in the race.

scott walker vowed to stick it to unions, so much so that he compared union workers to isis. despite his anti-obamacare rhetoric, his campaign is on life support. and finally, we come to jeb bush. the former florida governor truly needs to perform with the gusto his logo exhibits. his polling numbers are half of what they were in august. lately, bush has steadily criticized donald trump while on the campaign trail. >> there's a big difference between donald trump and me. i'm a proven conservative with a record. he isn't. i cut taxes every year. he's proposed the largest tax increase in mankind's history, not just our own country's history. >> tonight we'll see if it's all shadow boxing or if one of those jabs will land. they've been riding on escalators going in opposite directions. and this debate could tell us if jeb bush is headed for an exit. still to come, decoding the debate. we'll have your guide to the republican showdown and a bush super pac gets called out for

its outsourced american imagery. the details ahead. stay tuned. i'm mary thompson. stocks rise as the fed begins its two-day meeting. the dow climbing 140 points. the s&p adding 17 and the nasdaq closing 28 points higher. they're deciding whether or not to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years. chair janet yellen is due to hold a news conference after the central bank's statement is released at 2:00 p.m. tomorrow. and oracle shares are lower after hours. the company's earnings beat estimates but revenue fell short. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. quicker

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tonight is debate night as i said at the beginning of the show. and what you're looking at is the main stage. the big table.

not the kids' table but the big stage with 11 republicans who will be debating starting at 8:00 p.m. tonight, and it might end sometime today. we don't know. there's no end time. as we all know, the focus of the attention today is going to be donald trump. he is the front-runner and the real clear politics averages. he's at 30% in the polls. folks are going to be watching these two men here, ben carson who's been surging since his last debate performance in ohio last month. he is in the real clear politics averages at 20%. i should mention donald trump is at 27% and ben carson is at 23% in the new "new york times"/cbs news poll that came out yesterday. all eyes are also going to be on jeb bush. he is the personification of the establishment candidate, and he is way down. real clear politics averages has him -- polling averages has him at 7.8% support. "the new york times" poll has him at 6%. then when you look at new

hampshire and iowa, new hampshire, bush is at 8%. and in iowa, bush is at 6%. if all eyes are on ben carson, even more eyes are probably going to be on the one person who was at the kiddie table in the last debate who is now on the main stage, and that is carly fiorina. we talked about her in the last block. carly fiorina's support is only at 3.3% in the real clear politics averages, but compared to where she was on debate night a month ago, she is a shooting star. everyone's going to be looking at her. she doesn't -- well, in new hampshire, she's at 6%. in iowa, she's at 5%. basically, if you're not ben carson or donald trump, you're basically tied in iowa and new hampshire. then there's the other folks in this race that everyone's going to be watching because they were talked about before as people who were front-runners, could be front-runn front-runners, rising stars. i'm thinking specifically about governor chris christie. if donald trump were not in the

race, chris christie, remember, he was the tell-it-like-it-is candidate, the one who would tell people exactly what he'd think, whether it was politics or not, and usually impolitic. chris christie's standings in the real clear politics averages, 1.5%. he doesn't even rank in the "new york times" poll. he's not even in there in the new hampshire poll or the iowa poll. someone else who actually busted out of the gate in the last debate, ohio governor john kasich did very well in a lot of people's stiestimations. we'll see how he does this go 'round. he's at 2.5% in the real clear politics averages. scott walker, as we said, he's collapsed. he was someone else who everyone thought was going to be a contender. he's now at 2%. and then you have the folks here, senator ted cruz who's still homing trump will implode and gain his supporters. ted cruz is down here.

he's not even on here. yeah, he is. 6.8% in the real clear politics averages. cruz is up 5% in "the new york times" poll. huckabee, rubio, rand paul, all of these people, paul, huckabee, rubio, cruz, walker, bush, kasich and especially christie, they have got to do something tonight that puts them back on the board, that re-ignites interest in their campaigns. but also does so in a way that doesn't raise the ire of the guy at the top of the heap, and that is donald trump. so let's bring back brian darling, senior vice president at third dimension strategies and let's bring in beth hui senior editor at msnbc and host of reporter's notebook on shift and matt lewis, senior contributor and columnist for the week. folks, thanks for being here. let me start with you, matt. give me your -- one, react to what i just said, but also give

me what you're looking for. >> well, i think your analysis is really spot on. and i don't want to keep repeating what people have said tonight, but i do think carly fiorina is somebody to watch tonight. and that's not because she's doing that great in the polls. it's because this is the first time she's been in a primetime debate. and she is a political athlete. it's like having dez bryant on the field. all of a sudden, you have a playmaker who has a potential for a big play. i think that carly fiorina -- maybe chris christie, too -- but carly is uniquely poised to be able to take on donald trump. she's feisty. she's tough. she's quick-witted. and because he's already picked a fight with her, i think she has the moral high ground. so i think carly fiorina might be the one person who can put a dent in donald trump tonight. >> uh-huh. beth? >> yeah, i'm going to agree with matt as well, but i'm also really looking at what's going to happen to the candidates who are really on the precipice of falling off this whole thing. as you went to in your opening,

i think rand paul is on that precipice. i think chris 'ttie and scott walker who you said came in with a real head of steam has fallen so badly. i think they need to prove they deserve to be there, and if not, this is really their last chance. the money's going to dry up and their campaigns have nowhere to go at this point. a lot of people will be watching who's going to tussle with trump. mostly i'm going to be watching for who doesn't cut through and whose campaign is going to go on life support. >> brian? >> well, i'm biased. i'm a former staffer for senator rand paul, and i think he's going to do great tonight because i know him to be a tough guy, a guy who's not going to back down. and i think if you underestimate him, you're going to make a business mistake. i'm also looking at ted cruz, a notoriously good debater, a nationally ranked debater when he was undergraduate at princeton. and florida senator marco rubio,

great public speaker, did a great job last time. also mike huckabee, i thought he did a great job in explaining iran's policy in the last debate. he's somebody who's going to be talking directly to the voters in iowa. and i'd keep an eye on him, too. i guess you need a lot of eyes to keep track. >> i know, there are 11 people. but brian, let me stick with you for one hot second. are you surprised that your old boss, senator paul, didn't gain any traction coming out of the last debate? he was one of the few people who actually went after donald trump in that last debate. >> you know, i'm very biased. i watched the debate. i was at the debate. i was at the debate. i thought he won, but i was part of the 1% that thought he won. i think that he showed that you can stand up and take a swing at donald trump. and yeah, it hurt him a little bit in the polls, but at some point, these guys and gals are going to have to stand up to donald trump. they're going to have to expose his policies that aren't all that conservative and make that case to the american people. but i do think they need to stay

in their lane. they shouldn't get too far out of their lanes and get too confrontational. maybe that's what paul did. maybe he got a little bit ahead of his skis. >> jeb bush, can he survive coming out of this debate, if he does not take an opportunity to respond to or -- respond to an attack from trump or repeat a criticism he's said on the campaign trail and then decide not to take the punch while standing right next to him on the campaign stage? >> yeah, funny you mention that. obviously that tim pawlenty was famous for making that mistake last cycle when he went after mitt romney on fox news sunday and then sort of decided not to do that in the debate the next day. i think that jeb bush needs to look tough. he can't look weak. i don't think he has to spend the entire night going after donald trump, but he cannot look weak. you know, there's the bill clinton line, better to be strong and wrong than right and weak.

and i think that jeb bush, it's one thing to be perceived as a moderate. you cannot be perceived as a moderate and a weakling. the other thing i'll say real quick, i think there's one thing to keep an eye on tonight that's really important, and that is that cnn is going to discourage people from cheering or applauding. and that is a very, very big difference from the fox news debate. if donald trump says something that's a zinger and it doesn't get an applause, it falls flat. >> that's a very good point. and actually, you answered a question i've had in my head all day, wondering whether there would be audience participation. beth, i'm going to give you the last question. and that is chris christie, this is a guy, as i've said before, everyone thought was going to be the republican front-runner. he was the tell it like it is candidate. can he survive this debate without landing some kind of punch against donald trump or distinguishing himself from the

other ten people on stage, real fast? >> i don't think so. i think christie's days are very numbered. donald trump took all that space. he took the space of the northeastern blowhard, and there's only room for one of those guys, and donald trump has mastered that role. christie doesn't really have a lane anymore. and i think we will see the end of chris christie's campaign very soon. >> we've got to go. brian, beth, matt, thank you very much for being here. still ahead, the gop's troubled history with debate moderators. will the candidates come to blows with tonight's panel? stay tuned. i take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. because it gives me...

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jeb bush's super pac right to rise is out with a new hard-hitting ad disparaging donald trump and touting america's greatness. but there's one problem. politico notes that the stock footage used in the ad isn't from the united states. >> the american dream is dead. give me a break. >> my message will be an optimistic one. >> that beautiful meadow leading to a brighter path isn't from the american midwest or new england. it's from cornwall, england, and it's available for as little as $19 on shutter stock. even the part of his ad that declares america is great comes from outside america. those construction workers are actually from southeast asia. and rights to that stock video are sold for $35. a note of advice for right to rise, if you're going to make a

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of the news media makes it harder to govern this country, harder to attract decent people to run for public office, and i am appalled that you would begin a presidential debate on a topic like that. >> somebody just got read. that was newt gingrich in 2012 slamming john king for asking what many would call a relevant question. but gingrich turned the tables and attacked the messenger. we see it all the time. after the last debate, donald trump attacked megyn kelly because he didn't like her line of questioning. he took to twitter writing, wow, megyn kelly really bombed tonight. people are going wild on twitter. funny to watch. any of tonight's moderators could be trump or any other candidate's newest victim if they don't appreciate a certain question. tonight's debate moderators are cnn's chief washington correspondent jake tapper, cnn political correspondent dana bash, and conservative talk radio host hugh hewitt. trump's already attacked hewitt for asking him so-called gotcha

foreign policy questions in a recent interview. so tonight's dynamic between trump and hugh hewitt should be real interesting to say the least. we'll be right back.

republican candidates for president will face off in just a few short hours but the democratic lieutenant governor of california said he is ready for a debate right now. gaven newsome is taking on donald trump's immigration policy.

>> this week california will be hosting a republican presidential debate. that means donald trump will be paying us a visit. it's a perfect time to show you a truth behind his immigration ideas and how they will hurt all of us. trump says he would build a wall along the entire mexican border. that won't because of rivers, mountains, countless other challenges. trump says his wall will stop undocumented immigrants from trying to come into the country. trump says that he will round up and deport 11 million men, women and children. and he even wants to tear up abe lincoln's equal protection clause in the united states constitution, a conservative think tank says deporting that many people would cost over $400 billion. what would mr. make america great again do to our economy? we would lose half of our farm workers and 6% of america's work

force. trump's plan would send our economy into a down turn worse than the great recession and cost the economy more than $1.6 trillion. trump's plan would be a disaster. and donald will debate that plan anytime anywhere. >> joining me now is gaven newsome. thank you for being here. >> my honor. thanks for having me. >> why do this ad? why has donald trump piqued your interest? >> no state is more impacted by immigration reform than the state of california. roughly 2.8 to 3 million people are here undocumented in the state of california. we are a majority minority state. this state has gone through some very, very difficult times with efforts in the past to vilify latino communities. with former governor pete wilson

and others have created an awareness and sensitivity on the issues. with respect to donald trump i don't think he has gotten the scrutiny, time and energy to look at his detailed proposal and make the case and make the point that we try to do a little tongue and cheek there. i think it is overdue. >> so he hasn't gotten the scrutiny but his message is resonating. why do you think it is resonating with so many republican voters? >> i remember bill clinton said given the choice the american people will support strong and wrong versus weak and right y. think we have been is deuseduce his success. the details just don't cut it. the fact is you can't build a 1,900 mile wall. you can't build it through the rivers and the streams and private property. you can't deport 11 million

people. just think about that. that is about 458,000 people per day based upon his estimate of 18 months to 24 months as high as 611,000 people per month would have to be deported. it is not possible and not american. so we look at the cost. we look at the ethical. we look at what we are as americans and enough is enough. it's fine to dismiss them and summer of trump. now it is the fall of trump. i think people have to take him a little more seriously as the consequence proposals need to be taken more seriously. >> what i find interesting about the conversation about donald trump and his proposals and his campaign in general is how comfortable people seem to be calling out what he is doing, what he is saying as racism. you said i have nothing against comb overs, just racist comb overs. why do you think critics haven't been shy about calling him out

as racist? >> he is racist and sexist, as well. i think he is an embarrassment to the political process. that is my personal opinion. i think he is walking republican party down the path that former governor pete wilson did here in california. not one statewide republican official, this is a state where republican edge administration dropped below 30%. you can mark it back to proposition 187 that was rhetoric around that campaign in 1984 almost exactly the rhetoric that donald trump is spewing, this zeen phobia, this isolationist rhetoric. it is so devastating not just to the candidate and to those that are accused of being others but also to his party. i would hope -- i'm not here to promote the republican party and get their act together, but two party system i think is healthy for democracy and donald trump

is walking them right off the cliff. >> we only have about a minute left. forest fires are ripping across the northern region of your state and disasters tied to drought and climate change. are any of the republican candidates credible on climate change issues and are you hoping that comes up? >> it will be malpractice if it doesn't. you can't be in the state of california right now where you are seeing headlines on your show and other shows. you have 12 fires, 11,000 firefighters actively working on it. two are not 50% containment. we have had 1,500 fires so far this year than the entire year last year. it has never been hotter. it has never been drier. the cold are getting colder. climate disruption is here, not something in the future. we have to go back to the notion of morality.

we have an obligation to do something about it. and they have an obligation to talk about it. >> we will find out if they do talk about it. gaven newsome, thanks for your time tonight. >> thanks for having me. >> thanks for joining us. "msnbc live" continues next. right now on msnbc 11 republican presidential candidates are gathering at the ronald reagan presidential library getting ready to square off in the second major gop primary debate. we are now just hours away from one of the biggest moments so far in the 2016 race. all eyes, of course, are on donald trump. the republican front runner giving a hint today that he is interested in using tonight's debate to show a different side of himself. >> i think i can tone it down