i'm kate snow. mtp daily with chuck todd starts now. ♪ if it's monday, what if donald trump did drop out, who benefits the most in the early states? our new poll numbers will surprise you. this is "mtp daily" and it starts right now. ♪ >> i'm steve kornacki sitting in for chuck todd. a ton of nebig news on the campaign trail today. also on capitol hill. we'll get hawaii congresswoman and iraq war veteran's take on the bombing of a doctors without borders hospital in afghanistan. plus, chuck's interview with

planned parenthood president cecile richards and an original report on the road with presidential candidate john kasich out in the town where he grew up. but first to the headlines in tonight's press box. andrea mitchell is in new hampshire with the hillary clinton campaign. hallie jackson has the fiorina's campaign reaction to some good poll numbers and bad news. more from the hill on the republican leadership fight from luke russert. and al roker is in south carolina where record flooding is making for extremely dangerous conditions. starting up in new hampshire, hillary clinton is stepping squarely into the gun debate, calling today for new limits on the availability and distribution of firearms. during exclusive "today" show town hall in new hampshire, clinton shared her distress over recent mass shootings. including that deadly massacre just days ago in oregon. but she said there are changes that can make a difference. >> we need universal background checks. we know they will work.

we need to close the gun show loophole -- [ applause ] you know about 40% or so of the gun sales in america are done online, done in gun shows, done by people selling out of the back of their cars, basically. >> andrea mitchell is on the trail with secretary clinton and joins us now from manchester, new hampshire. andrea, interesting on the timing here. we have a poll coming out yesterday that shows secretary clinton now nine points behind bernie sanders in new hampshire. here she is in new hampshire on that rare issue where she can actually get to his left. >> i know, this is one of the few issues because bernie sanders has been long supported by the nra. he sides with them on the gun laws. she has now come out in favor of some extraordinarily controversial proposals. what she's saying, if congress does not close the loopholes, then she has president would do it by executive action, and

executive action, as you know, is like waving a red flag in front of the republicans and a lot of other conservatives. so these are tough proposals as well as removing a waiver that the gun lobby has long enjoyed because of the nra support. gun manufacturers cannot be sued by gun victims. and this is another thing that she's proposing. and by the way, this was emotional, with one of the sandy hook mothers, who lost her 6-year-old son in the elementary school. clinton got more than a little bit choked up with that. >> we talk about the contrast she's drawing with bernie sanders, but when it came to the republicans running for about the and their response last week, her response was much more direct and blunt. let's listen to that. >> on the republican side, mr. trump was asked about it and said something like, you know, things like that happen in the world. and governor bush said, yeah,

stuff happens. no. that's an admission of defeat and surrender to a problem that is killing 33,000 americans. >> so andrea, is there an opportunity for hillary clinton to benefit politically from how the republicans, her potential opponents in the election, have handled this? >> absolutely. that's the way they see it. the other thing you should note, in the polls you cited, she would not do as well as sanders against the leading republicans in hypothetical general election match-ups. so she's got a problem in the polls that we released today. as well as the ones that came out on sunday on "meet the press" which show she was trailing sanders and it gets even worse for her if joe biden gets in. it's 14 points with biden in here in new hampshire. >> if you said bernie sanders would be in that position

against hillary clinton a few months ago, i don't think anybody would have believed you. thank you very much. and "the washington post" reporting that more than 30 invoices, totaling, $500,000 were left unsettled from her unsuccessful senate campaign in california. fiorina recouped over a million dollars she put into the campaign, but the other balances were unpaid until late january of this year. fiorina would not address the delay in payment. >> any explanation for why it took so long? >> all of our debt was paid off and everyone was paid in full. so once again, "the washington post" doesn't have a lot of credibility here. >> she's trying not to let "the washington post" report rain on her new hampshire parade. she made a ten-point leap in the granite state in our new poll. she's now only second to donald

trump up there. i want to bring in nbc's hallie jackson, who has been following this story. hali, carly fiorina's record has been the subject of scrutiny. her time at hewlett packard, the circumstances of her departure. now the way the finances of her campaign in 2010 were managed, coming under a bit of scrutiny. what is the danger for her in this story? is there much? >> it's a fair question, i think we'll see the fall-out if there is any, among voters down the road. give the story is new, although reuters did a similar piece in may, which didn't pick up too much. her campaign debt accrued after 2010, this five-year period in which she was paying off her debt, most of it in january of this year, is what it says about the impact of that 2010 senate race on her current campaign. so not just the campaign debt from that campaign, but also another real factor, the attacks

from barbara boxer, her rival then, against fiorina, particularly, steve, when it came to her business record. that's something you just addressed. something we've seen fiorina come under fire about before. and some rivals believe that strategy, boxer's strategy may be a blueprint for how to defeat fiorina now, even as she's surging in the polls. here's what she had to say today about her surge to second place in the granite state. >> i appreciate the first in the nation state of new hampshire. it's not just because i'm surging in the polls. it's because this is a state in which people clearly and truly are revealed. >> fiorina herself has no problem talking about her business record. she said she will run on that all day. and worth noting too, steve, we're just learning that her full documentary put together by her super pac called "citizen carli" is now online in full.

it's from her perspective, the story of her rise and tenure as ceo of hp. steve? >> thanks for that, hallie jackson. now on to the house leadership scramble. it's only getting more complicated by the day. this afternoon, house speaker john boehner postponed the election of majority leader and majority whip until next month. also announced that the floor vote to replace him as speaker is going to be held on october 29th. the gop conference will hold its own speaker vote this thursday with house oversight committee chairman jason chaffetz now officially challenging majority leader kevin mccarthy. nbc's luke russert asked chaffetz today if he'll take his fight all the way to the floor. >> i don't plan to continue to campaign after thursday. i'm going to support the nominee. but organically, i think there will continue to be this surge of people that say, we've got to find somebody, and we shouldn't necessarily even go to the floor until we have that person that has 218 votes.

>> nbc's luke russert joins us now from capitol hill. i'm wondering if kevin mccarthy is breathing a sigh of relief after the interview. because there's 246 republicans in the house, you need 218 to win the election as speaker. if chaffetz isn't willing to take it to the floor of the house, does that clear the path for mccarthy? >> it remains to be seen. and the reason why is that while chaffetz may not overtly campaign after thursday, and that's a race he acknowledges he has a difficult time winning, the internal conference race, where mccarthy needs only about 124 votes, it remains to be seen whether or not he will truly step away. he said he won't campaign, but if things happened organically, maybe he'd be the candidate on the house floor. what is clear, steve, right now, mccarthy is still in line to become speaker of the house. the question will be, whether or not on october 29th, the election for speaker, if he can get there on the first ballot.

he needs 218 votes. 25 republicans voted against boehner last time on the house floor. it's unclear if he has those votes right now from within his conference. >> and also in your interview, chaffetz had some comments about possible government shutdowns under his leadership. what did he have to say about that? >> this is very interesting. because he said to me he did not agree with mitch mcconnell taking government shutdowns off the table. take a listen to what he said. >> my job is not to shut down the government. my job is to get a bill on the president's desk and force him to make that decision. we need to understand where we're going to hold the line. what are we actually going to fight for, and then we're going to go fight and it's going to be a whole different game with jason chaffetz there, i promise you that. >> why is that significant? it puts kevin mccarthy in a difficult position. will he say the shutdown should not be taken off the table? if he went up president obama, would shutting down the

government be an option? that killed their poll numbers in 2013. it's the last thing they want to do and it puts mccarthy in a difficult position, because if jason chaffetz is willing to play that type of hard ball, would he be willing to do that? >> back to the same dilemma that john boehner faced. luke, thank you. >> thank you. now to the historic flooding in south carolina, that has claimed nine lives. some are calling it the thousand-year flood after torrential downpours that had emergency personnel scrambling to rescue members of the community. this is the scene in columbia, south carolina. entire streets and roads destroyed by this historic flood. power lines brought to the ground and homes engulfed by water. governor nikki haley updated the state on the situation and described the historic nature of this storm. >> south carolina has gone through a storm of historic proportions. it's gone through a storm that

has never happened before. having said that, south carolina's moving. we have all the people we need. >> and joining me now in columbia, south carolina, nbc's al roker. al, we're reading about 40,000 people without watering, seeing incredible rainfall totals. is the worst over down there now? >> well, the rainfall, when it comes to the rainfall, yes, the worst is over. however, what remains is the run-off from all of that. and there are a number of small and larger lakes in this area and ponds that all feed into the congaree river. we have a number of dams that are in danger of breaching or have already breached. mandatory evacuations going on. these are the areas that may breach again and cause massive flooding. there are mandatory evacuations in the percival road area, evacuating to the local high school. the spring dam, the rocky creek dam, north of the forest lake

dam, that may overtop as well. and it all runs down through this area. this is the gill greek arcreek . those fire trucks two days ago, if they were there now, they would be under water. there's a concern that's going to happen again. and as a matter of fact, it all feeds into the congaery. we were down there, and had drone video this morning of the congaree river at its peak. it was flowing 1.4 million gallons per second. that would fill two olympic swimming pools and then some per second. down a little bit today, but with all the water that may break through with the dams, they may have more river rise problems with the congaery. so we'll continue to watch this. rainfall wise, the worst is over. but when it comes to dams breaking and flooding, we're not out of the woods.

>> what about preparations? does the area have what it needs to deal with that? >> just as we were standing here, we were watching a number of fire trucks, fire department vehicles and office of emergency management vehicles, bringing in boats and floatables, inflatable boats to get ready for this, so that they're preparing for it. 1,300 national guard troops are out there. 250 state troopers. as we said, 40,000 people without drinking water. still a large swath of columbia, the city of columbia, has to boil water before they drink it. so this is still a very, very dire situation here in columbia, south carolina, steve. >> al roker in columbia, thank you for that. and coming up, more fall-out from this weekend's air strike in afghanistan. why doctors without borders is calling it a war crime. plus, how it's impacting u.s. diplomacy in the reason and tulsi gabbard joins me for that

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if i were doing poorly, if i saw myself going down, if you would stop calling me because you no longer have any interest in trump because he has no chance, i'd go back to my business. i have no problem with that. >> that was donald trump with chuck on sunday's "meet the press." so what if he did drop out? our new nbc news/"wall street journal," maris poll shows who would benefit. ben carson rockets to the front of the pack with a double-digit lead. two others who stand to gain the most, jeb bush, and rand paul. both of them shoot up from single digits to the mid teens if no donald trump. over in new hampshire, the weird thing to see there, how john kasich numbers drop without trump in the race, from 12% with

trump, to 7% without him. everybody else's numbers spike up. and it's a three-way battle in the teens between carly fiorina, carson, and chris christie. we have more on john kasich ahead here on "mtp daily" with an original report from peter alexander, out on the road, visiting the town just outside pittsburgh where the ohio governor grew up, mckees rocks, pennsylvania. the boss of you? (patrick 2) pretty great. (patrick 1) how about a 10% raise? (patrick 2) how about 20? (patrick 1) how about done? (patrick 2) that's the kind of control i like... ...and that's what they give me at national car rental. i can choose any car in the aisle i want- without having to ask anyone. who better to be the boss of you... (patrick 1)than me. i mean, you...us. (vo) go national. go like a pro. when age-related macular have degeneration, amd we came up with a plan to help reduce my risk of progression.

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crime. this is severe, severe violation of international humanitarian law and it's completely unacceptable. >> and white house press secretary josh earnest responded to that charge earlier this afternoon. >> i wouldn't use a label like that, because this is something that continues to be under investigation. the thing i do think warrants mentioning is that there is no country in the world and no military in the world that goes to greater lengths and places a higher premium on, avoiding civilian casualties, than the united states department of defense. >> jim miklaszewski is at the pentagon. conflicting statements. the general in charge of the afghan war has come out, correcting d.o.d.'s previous account and said afghan forces had called the u.s. for air strikes. what more can you tell us? >> well, that's right, steve. initially, it was reported that u.s. military forces were under direct attack, direct fire from the taliban and therefore they called in an air strike to

remove that threat. today, general john campbell, the top military commander in afghanistan clarified it was the afghans who said that they were under attack and the u.s. then called in the air strike. but that raises more questions than it answers. did the u.s. attempt to clarify the taliban claims? did the taliban give coordinates and were those checked out? did the taliban say it was coming from the hospital, or did they identify it as a hospital? and what instructions were given to the ac-130 that was circling above. that's a u.s. air force gunship that bristles with weapons that attacked the site. so there's all kinds of unanswered questions in the scenario that was painted today that have so far gone answered. nevertheless, whatever the answer is, this is truly a humanitarian and for the u.s. military, a public relations disaster, steve. >> and jim, also some news and a

little bit of mystery, i guess about russia. you have turkey saying that russia did violate its airspace over the weekend. there are also now reports potentially of russia making new moves on the ground in syria. is there anything to that? >> that's right. senior defense officials tell us today that the russians have begun to move artillery and rocket launchers to a city called hama. if the russians claim they are out to attack isis, there's no way that this artillery, or those rockets launchers can reach isis targets. but they are within firing range of syrian rebels who are fighting against the assad government. so according to one official here, so much for fighting isis. and it looks like the russians are actually preparing not only for air strikes against those syrian rebels, more air strikes, but a ground assault as well. >> all right, jim, thank you for

that. turning now to democratic congresswoman, tulsi gabbard. thank you for joining us. you made some comments on twitter. we were talking about russia and its involvement in syria. you tweeted russian planes bombing al qaeda, al nusra and other islamic terrorists in syria, why is this a bad thing? you said bad enough, u.s. has not been bombing them, but it's mind-boggling that we protest russia's bombing of these terrorists? are you saying we should be partnering with russia in putin here? >> what i'm saying, first of all, we've got to make sure that we're focused on what our mission is and who our enemy is. and this goes to the crux of the problem that we're seeing in syria today. let's go pack to what happened after 9/11. we saw president bush make a decision not to pursue al qaeda, not to pursue those who attacked us on 9/11, but instead to pursue a mission of toppling

saddam hussein and we saw the chaos that ensued thereafter. we saw the result now today which is islamic extremists have overrun that country. fast forward to president obama and secretary of state hillary clinton who made a decision not to pursue islamic extremists, but attacked and over threw gadhafi in libya. the result, a country overrun with islamic extremists today. so my point about what's happening in syria. my point about the mistaken focus of the administration on removing assad, rather than focusing on who our enemy is, people are not asking nor answering the question of what happens if assad were overthrown tomorrow? what will happen, we'll see a repeat of what happened in iraq, exactly what happened in libya, where isis, al qaeda, al nusra, they'll walk in the front door, take over syria, and they will be a greater threat to people on the ground as well as the world with their heightened military

abilities. >> you seem to be making the case for having a bad guy strong man, iraq and hussein, saying at least he brought stabilization. if you're using that analogy, are you saying that assad, for right now, if we're going to focus on taking out isis, that having assad in place is an essential ingredient for that? >> steve, what i'm saying is we've got to focus on who our enemy is. our enemy is isis, al qaeda. extremists who have been waging war against the american people since the attack on 9/11 where thousands of people were killed. i served in iraq and many of my friends unfortunately sacrificed their lives in the service of our country on this mission. not to take out al qaeda, but to topple this regime of saddam hussein. and what is so important to me now is that we don't allow this same mistake to happen in syria, where we can tell from what

happened in history and we can tell from what's happening on the ground, if the united states continues to focus not on defeating isis, but rather defeating assad and overthrowing assad, we will not only not defeat isis, we will strengthen them. and we as the american people will be dealing with a far greater threat than we've seen so far. >> i want to turn subjects here and ask you about that apparent u.s. bombing of a doctors without borders hospital in afghanistan. you've been on the ground in war. i'm curious what you make of a tragic situation like this. when you're in the middle of a firefight like that, do the rules of engagement get muddled? is it understandable to you having been in a combat situation how this could happen? >> this incidence is a terrible tragedy. there's no other way to look at it. it's a terrible tragedy that must be investigated very carefully, objectively, and thoroughly to make sure that nothing like this is ever allowed to happen again. that's really all i can say on it. there's a lot of questions that

have not yet been answered. we've got to make sure it's investigated carefully and then figure out what the course of action is going forward from there to prevent something like this from happening again. >> i do want to get a political question in here, it's that season. but the news dominated by the will he-won't he surrounding joe biden. i know you're neutral in this contest, but do you think it would be good for the democratic party if joe biden got in the race and ran? >> i think the more people we have stepping forward to generate more debate, to bring more ideas to our democracy and our democratic presidential primaries, the better. on that note, i've been calling for more debates sponsored by the dnc. right now, as you know, the dnc has only allowed for six sanctioned debates, and an exclusivity clause that said if any candidate participates in

another debate, then you're blocked from joining the dnc debates. >> you're a vice chair of the dnc. debbie wasserman schultz hasn't shown wiggles on that, but are you seeing any movement on getting more debates? >> what i'm seeing is that more and more people on the ground from states all across the country are calling for more debates. are wanting to have this transparency and great engagement in our democratic process, at a critical time, as they make the decision of who should be the next person to lead our country. we have to have more opportunities for people to present their vision for our country, their plans and to be held accountable for the positions they're taking and the path they'd like to take our country on. >> thank you for your time, appreciate it. >> thanks, steve. up next, we'll get you caught up on the who, what, when, where and why in today's headlines, including a new senate candidate who will keep our eyes on new hampshire even after the presidential primary.

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back with more "mtp daily," now it's time for the w's. starting with a who. and the who is new hampshire democratic governor maggie hasen. today she announced plans to run for the u.s. senate in 2016. this sets up a match-up with kelly ayotte. this is a race that promises to be one of the most competitive in the cycle, between two female candidates. turning to the what, the what is the transpacific partnership. remember that one? the u.s. and 11 pacific rim countries have finally reached a deal which will affect 40% of the global economy. our congress and lawmakers in all participating countries have to approve the deal still. one person who doesn't is democratic presidential candidate bernie sanders who will undoubtedly make it a sharp

contrast with hillary clinton who has yet to weigh in on the deal now that it's done. and now to the when. it's today. the first day of the supreme court's new term. a lot of hot button cases could be decided months from now. before they donned their robes, we sat down with steven briar. take a listen. >> how do you decide what to read? >> how do i decide what to read? well, i read something for my own pleasure, and i read something if i'm writing something like the book. my goodness. and what are the topics that interest me or come across my -- i've always wanted to read more mark twain. >> do you use a library or internet? >> no, i get -- i probably will buy the book. >> i've always wanted to read more mark twain too. now for today's where. the where is the campaign trail. this w is about a different w.

george w. bush. "the new york times" article said he may soon lend a hand to his brother on the campaign trail. 43 remains popular among conservatives, but playing to the bush dynasty is risky in an election with outsiders leading in the polls. more jeb in today's why. comes from our new poll out of new hampshire, jeb bush picked up three points to move to 11%, double-digits in the first in the nation's state. while john kasich saw half his support disappear, falling down to 6%. as for the why, the specific instance shows the impact of campaign cash. new hampshire obviously is a must-win state for jeb. so he's spending big right now up there and his poll numbers suddenly are reflecting it. kasich meanwhile hit 12% in september. that was largely due to a big media buy on his part. that media buy is now wearing off. john kasich also gives us our how for today. coming up, peter alexander's ride along with kasich, hearing

how the ohio gov plans to find some primary love. but first, kate rogers have the cnbc market wrap. >> hi, steve, stocks surged with the dow up 304 points, the s&p jumping 35, the nasdaq rallying 73 back into positive territory for the year. what was google is now alphabet. the company began trading under its new name today and rose more than 2%. twitter shares up nearly 7%. the social media giants said jack dorsey will stay on permanently. he also runs the mobile payment company square. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. rheumatoid arthritis like me... and you're talking to a rheumatologist about a biologic, this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my

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keep the government open for a few more weeks, paused the partisan fight over planned parenthood funding, but it didn't end it. in a contentious five-hour hearing, put a harsh spotlight on the women's health organization and their political influence. >> if you want to be a private entity, be a private entity. but you don't need federal dollars in order to do this. >> i don't use federal dollars to do that, sir. >> you do to run the organization. >> excuse me. >> planned parenthood has gotten more than $22 million to exercise -- to involve in their lobbying expenditures and their advocacy efforts. >> politics aside, there were some legitimate questions during that hearing that we wanted to follow up on with the president of planned parenthood, cecile richards. chuck sat down with richards and began the conversation by talking about why planned parenthood needs federal funding. >> so i'm glad you asked. it's great to have a chance to actually answer that. so planned parenthood provides health care to 2.7 million

people every year. and about 60% of them actually participate in either they're insured through medicaid or title 10, which is the national family planning program. so one of the things that's confusing about this whole topic of defunding planned parenthood is, planned parenthood doesn't get a big check from the government. we, like all other health care providers, other hospitals, we're reimbursed for preventive care that we provide, cancer screenings, birth control, std testing and treatment, and for many women, planned parenthood is actually the only medical provider they will see all year. that's why this is such an important issue. >> explain the fire wall, though. there's a ban on federal funding on abortion. >> correct. >> except in rare exceptions for life, health, rape and incest of the mother. >> correct. >> how do we know there's a fire wall here and any of the medicaid reimbursements aren't for that? >> well, as was cited over and

over again in the hearing, planned parenthood operates like all other health care providers that provide abortion services and see medicaid patients. very strict guidelines. all medicaid payments are overseen. this is one of the most highly regulated areas of health care. and again, i think it's important to understand that the vast majority of patients who come to us, come for preventive health care. >> half your clinics don't provide abortion services, is that correct? >> roughly correct. >> why not separate the abortion services as a totally separate clinic? that would be a physical fire wall. it would satisfy some members of congress. >> actually, i don't think it would satisfy many members of congress that are trying to end access to safe and legal abortion. i guess i would flip the question to you, why should women have to go to one separate place just because they want to

access abortion services? we provide, as i said, a vast array of services. we're a high quality provider of birth control, probably the best provider of birth control in the country and millions of people come to us for that. some women come to us because they have an unintended pregnancy and they need to make a decision. we counsel them on all their options. what's important for me is they come to a place where they can make that decision for themselves. women should be able to make decisions about their pregnancy in consultation with their doctors, with their spouses, with their faith leader. it's not a decision that should be made by congress. >> let me ask you a requesquest that i asked marco rubio, and he admitted it was a tough question to answer, which is, whose constitutional right is greater? the mother or the unborn child? and he admitted it was a

conflict, and he is siding with the unborn child. what is that line for you? >> i think this is a right that women have and in fact, 3 in 10 women in the country at some point terminate a pregnancy for a whole host of reasons. one thing i've learned from ten years at planned parenthood is that no one can ever be in another woman's circumstances. i've gotten letters and of course since this hearing about women who have made all kinds of decisions about their pregnancy. what i know is, where these decisions should not be made is by the u.s. house of representatives or congress. >> is there a reasonable way to limit abortion? >> i think actually planned parenthood does more by providing family planning. we have for 99 years. we're the experts in family planning. we do more to prevent unintended pregnancy and the need for abortion than any organization in america. and that's the irony of this hearing the other day. we're actually now experiencing a 40-year low in teen pregnancy

in the united states. i wish we could have a hearing on how can we do even more. >> you believe that's because ever the expansion of birth control. >> better sex education. young people getting information about how to prevent an std, how to get birth control if they need it. >> and you can head to the "mtp daily" website for more of chuck's chat with cecile richards. still ahead, john kasich's 2016 roadshow takes a hometown detour with peter alexander, where he explains how school yard scuffles helped to shape his political strategy. stay tuned. you need to eat this special. ♪ i love it kellogg's special k... ...made with whole grains and fiber ...to help a body thrive. ♪ i love it folic acid and vitamin d...

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buckle up, we just got the official map for the road to the republican nomination. and it's going to be a bumpy ride. today the rnc laid out how the states will award their delegates in 2016. there are 2,500 delegates up for grabs in total, and the magic number to get the nomination is going to be 1,237. 5% of that total will be at stake in iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, and nevada, the early states, more than 55% of the total are going to be up for grabs in the month of march. by the end of april, 400 more delegates and 80% of the total will be spoken for. that number goes up to 80% in may as 199 more delegates get dealt and the last batch gets dold out in june. bottom line, march is going to

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underdog. >> these are the underdogs in this community. >> yep. you can see it's tough. it's one of these post industrial towns. it's left some people without much. it's without work, work, withou. >> this was your childhood home. >> yeah. >> oh, my goodness. this is where we would throw the ball off this wall. my father would get so angry we are going to wear out the grass. that was a big thing, don't wear out the grass. this was a very, very important part of my life. there was a school right here. this is where i learned to compete. this is where you learn to play basketball. this is where you learn to be an athlete. this is where you learn not to make excuses. >> what did you learn then you can apply today? >> keep at it, man. when the ball went foul, i said it's foul and they go, no, it's fair. that's write learned to argue. >> it's afternoon, i'm hungry. >> we always come here fridays for fish sandwiches. >> you cast yourself as an

empathic caring candidate. some critics would say he's prickly, they call you a jerk. who's right? >> look, when you go to get big things done, i've got to push. you can't lay in bed and just think it's ail going to happen by accident. if you can't be tough in the campaign, if you can't be tough when you run a state, how are you going to deal with that vladimir putin? >> what do you do about russia? new air strikes in syria targeting reportedly u.s.-trained rebels there? >> i would create safe zones and no fly zones to protect these families who have been leaving. when america puts up a no-fly zone, you don't enter it. we are there to protect people, stop all the families from having to migrate. >> what about putin? >> stop coddling him. he's a bully. we dealt with a lot of bullies here in my lifetime and in congress. >> how did you do all this? you are nothing but a trouble maker. >> i used to deliver your

newspapers, you remember? >> you know, i might be president. >> now that you're rich, send me money, man. >> sort of a metaphor for john kasich. >> i'd say it's right. >> you know they're near pittsburgh because of all those steeler signs in the bar you saw there. >> next, the lid tackling today's 2016 headlines, including whether jeb bush might be seeing some brotherly love out on the campaign trail. you're watching "mtp daily."er id manages your portfolio. is it run by robots? no no, you can talk to a person anytime. 'cause i don't trust robots. right...well, if the portfolio you're invested in doesn't perform well for two consecutive quarters, amerivest will reimburse your advisory fees for those quarters. i wasn't born yesterday. well, actually it looks like you were born yesterday. happy belated birthday. thanks. for all the confidence you need td ameritrade. you got this.

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it's time for "the lid" where we cap off today's biggest news in politics. i'd like to welcome nick and amy from "the new york times." we'll start with the "new york times" story this morning. in "the new york times" there is an item about george w. bush, the man whose name jeb won't speak suddenly maybe will become a player on the campaign trail for jeb. the logic is among conservative republicans where jeb is struggling right now, there is still personal good will towards george w. bush. at the same time, i wonder if republicans are pragmatic about this and that whole idea of not another bush resonates with them even if they like the guy. >> it's a cost benefit. he's got the bush family raising money for him, donors up to kennebunkport. if he has "w" stump for him,

that will be great. >> that sort of, the democratic ad for the general election writes itself the minute they appear together. >> i love the way these have changed from how is owe going to escape his brother's legacy to we need george w. bush on the trail. i was covering an event with president clinton and former president bush. they were together at a foundation event. i was reminded of george w.'s political skills and his swagger and in contrast to his more serious brother. i can understand why he would be a valuable asset. >> there is a risk of upstaging jeb bush. donald trump made this whole concept of jeb bush the low-energy candidate. when i remember george w., i have a new appreciation for george w.'s public speaking skills. there was a lot of populist charisma there you don't see with jeb. i wonder if that hurts jeb with. i want to get to another story. this is joe biden. will he run, won't he run?

we have new numbers from iowa and new hampshire. this is what jumped out at me. the favorable/unfavorable scores. this is among all voters in iowa right here. you see joe biden. he's even, liked and disliked by the same number. hillary clinton is 24 points under water in iowa. you look at new hampshire, pretty much the same story. joe biden, 48/41. hillary clinton 23 points under water. the argument for hillary clinton was, i'm the one who can beat the republicans. i'm the toughest one, the most experienced one. i can put the machine together. when you start seeing numbers like that, they caught into that argument. >> absolutely. on the biden front, soon as he, if he gets in, his numbers would drop. once you've seen his political, his numbers would drop. her numbers were great secretary of state. new hampshire is particularly concerning. in iowa they never embraced her fully. the campaign anticipated that would be a problem. new hampshire is supposed to

love the clintons. it saved her from her battle against obama. she was the unexpected winner in the primary in 2008. bill clinton came in second. he was the comeback kid after new hampshire. those numbers in new hampshire are particularly troubling. >> do you think are niece numbers enough to get joe biden into this race? >> forget biden. bernie sappeders is leading in head-to-head matchups in some of these matchups. that's amazing. everyone said he's too liberal. he can't raise the money. he's raising the money. now he's leading her in head-to-head matchups. that is amazing. this is a bernie sanders moment, i think. >> what biden would be looking at is the idea if he can knock off, if bernie sanders can knock her off in iowa and new hampshire, they say he can't win south carolina. joe biden as barack obama's vice president could. >> nick makes a good point if joe biden got into the race, he would be peeling off hillary clinton supporters. bernie people are bernie people. they'll support him whether biden gets into the race or not.

some polls show if he got in he would chip away at her support. could he resonate with black voters in south carolina the way bernie sanders hasn't proven to do or hispanics in nevada? >> thanks for joining us. thanks for tuning in. chuck will be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily." right now the u.s. saying afghan forces asked for the air strike that killed 22 people at a doctors without borders clinic in kunduz. historic and deadly flooding in the carolinas. the rain is stopping but danger far from over. >> and hillary clinton unveils her plan for major new gun restrictions. >> good day. we begin tonight with new details about the usair strike that killed 22 people including three children at a