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wouldn't it. i grew up going to wrigley field and being a cubs fan. i think that instills in your character that you can't always expect things to turn out as you wish them to be but this time it might actually happen and so we're all holding our breath and crossing fingers and toes and sending some prayers. thanks for wearing that. it gets my blood going. >> i thought she was a yankees fan. >> it's wednesday, october 7th. welcome to morning joe. >> she's a yankees fan. >> you can have more than one team, joe. >> with us on set we have the bloomberg politics. otherwise known as the game change boys. >> they are the game change boys. >> lit cal political analyst

former democratic congressman harold ford jr. and from capitol hill, ron. >> aye been hashtaging wabr all these years. >> the washington post, we got a lot to get into. some developments in hillary clinton's e-mail case. this is fascinating. you always kind of have that gut feeling, just like drinking the diet cokes. you knew something in there. >> poisonous. >> you just love. >> i just drank one, okay.

>> i did too. >> you did not, mark. >> it's all i had to eat today. >> there's something in it. just like skim milk. you knew that wasn't right. i always felt like, that's why we drank cream last week, straight, there's something wrong with going away from whole milk. >> it's like watered down milk. there was a study people who drank whole milk had less heart attacks. >> i think that's a beginning with whole milk. >> that's the way god made it. >> that's the way god planned. that's the way he wants it to be. >> can we start with the -- >> new poles. a pole showing donald trump may not be slipping so much and a whole lot more and ben carson's

crazy comment. >> what was that? >> he accused the people gunned down and killed of being too passive. >> what was that? is there something missing? >> i don't know. >> i think there might be. okay. i'll be careful with what i say. when you see it, maybe you'll feel the same way. if not, let us know. here are the new focus groups mark and john conducted in iowa and new hampshire. john set down the iowa's democrats and mark talked the democrats in new hampshire getting their views toward hillary clinton, joe biden and bernie sanders. here's what the group said about hillary clinton. >> hillary clinton, three words. >> experience and knowledge. >> i would say experience and caring. >> still impressive. >> if you have a family situation and you could call any of those three democrats for help, which one would you call and why? >> hillary. she seems the most genuinely

concerned. >> she's a mom. >> she's an acomp lished female leader who has continued to persevere. >> she's seen how the system worked. she may have a better chance of getting things done quicker. >> she can skip over a learning curve. >> here we have with a woman stepping into a predominantly male arena and felt she had to hold her own with them. >> she speaks about her positions without having that edge and scorned kind of woman thing. if that's a little off putting. >> more about that. >> i think that can put off a lot of male voters. >> tell me what it's like. >> you know, i don't want to use the word but pitch. it's like that women need to be equal. i just -- i don't feel unequal.

>> i agree. i don't feel unequal. i don't feel i have a job where i feel unequal to my male counter parents. >> it's a double standard. >> do you agree some might see that? >> oh yeah. >> i like hillary. i think she's a strong candidate. i don't think you have to have that. >> i can see that causing grid lock. >> she seems a little con den sending. >> i don't think it's con den sending. that's a strange word for me. i think it's more like i'm a woman. i deserve it. >> i would vote for her. >> that's my biggest problem. >> i don't think it's necessary. >> raise your hand if that could hurt hillary's chances of getting elected. >> it's that attitude or whatever. >> talk about a split decision between iowa and new hampshire.

iowa is a hillary campaign commercial. put music to it and i find hillary running new hampshire there's a real edge. that conversation went on much longer in new hampshire but let's first start with iowa. overwhelmingly positive sense there. what happened when you brought other candidates compared to hillary. >> there's a lot of, we're going to talk about biden in a minute but in terms of sanders and clinton, these were undecided voters. they weren't committed. there was a lot of enthusiasm for bernie sanders in the room. a lot of admiration for hillary clinton. if you had to say which way they were leaning, it was split between the two of them. there's no doubt the iowa group which is reflected in the poles, she seems to be doing better in iowa than new hampshire. >> you're not hearing any e-mails in that and anything about trustworthiness, all the

things they've been screaming headlines over the past several months. when you go talk to iowa democrat, none of that seems to surface. >> it's the case in iowa they're taking it more seriously and closer to the ground. number two, they don't think there's any there, in and number three, i think she's handled it badly. a lot of discussion about how she should have owned it sooner and taken it on sooner but it was all about the politics and perception of it. they don't believe there's any core issue there that doubts her. >> new hampshire more skeptical log ins. >> similar on the e-mails but they don't think there's anything wrong with it. the conversation when talking about her personality, we showed her a video of what we thought was heifr giving a speech about her policy. once that one woman suggested

she might have a personality issue, the whole room agreed as you saw a show of hands, they think that's what stopped her. she's polarizing and think men in particular won't last. >> we cut a good bit in there out that was more negative of hillary because we thought it was too negative and didn't like the connotations there. >> let's move on to bernie sanders who we're going to have on the show tomorrow. here's what groups in iowa and new hampshire had to say about bernie sanders. >> just describe a sander's presidency. >> more people oriented. revolutions i think is awesome. >> he tries to get people involved as he's not going to do it all. let's all work on this together. that's the kind of thing people want to be involved in. >> it's financeny when you look at him, he's hunched over but the stuff he says, he's in touch with a lot of the things we're

thinking about. >> benny sanders. >> i would say knowledgeable and experienced as well. >> exciting. >> another version of hope. >> not visionary. >> game changer. >> who do you think is going to win the new hampshire primary? >> bernie sanders. >> probably bernie sanders. >> sanders. >> sanders. >> sanders. >> sanders. >> sanders. >> sanders. >> the iowa caucus on the democratic side. >> i would say bernie. he's leading now. >> bernie. >> bernie. >> bernie. >> i think hillary will. >>. >> hillary. >> i'm between hillary and bernie. >> i have no idea. >> you have concerns about sander's age? >> a little. i guess my top concern would be like having the president croak midterm, you know. >> i didn't like john mccain

partially because of his age and he's, i think, sanders is five years older than mccain. >> his age doesn't really bother me. >> is there anybody in the room who thinks when they hear bernie sanders was a socialist it's a problem? >> i think it will give him problems in the general election if he makes it that far. >> those of you now who think sanders will be the nominee, have you thought that all along or just more recently? >> more recently. >> what's changed to make you think that? >> his ability to connect. >> maybe the democrats need something new, something that hasn't been tried. why not bernie? >> that's the question. why not. >> why not bernie? i'm really surprised you guys went around in new hampshire and it's all bernie and i said okay, that makes sense and then went the iowa and had a lot of bernie support there too and i started thinking wait, is this thing in

iowa 2007 when republicans came up to me and said they need to be for this guy barack obama. it's a sense something's starting to happen out there. >> my past reporting in new hampshire said i really like bernie and agree to a lot of things but he's not going to win. we got to go for a person whose going to win. these two groups, you saw unanimously, every one of them said -- these people haven't taken a position on whose going to support. that's a big difference. as you know psychologically, if people think he's going to win, i thought that was a huge finding of the voices in these groups. >> that's when the snow ball goes down the hill when people stop believing. >> yes, we can. >> suddenly it starts iowa. how competitive in iowa? >> very competitive.

the interesting thing for me, i asked everyone if they could imagine bernie sanders in the white house and all but a couple could imagine that possibility. people thought that would be a positive thing. they all, many of them expressed reservations about him being so far left as a practical political matter. would that hurt in the general election? in terms of what they thought on the issues, is that a bad thing for them in terms of ideology? no. that's fine. a number of them said i wouldn't call myself a socialist but a lot of things a socialist believes, i believe too. we need to do this and go after banks and focus more on working people. >> for real. >> even though there was a lot of warmth and respect for clinton, there was more

enthusiasm and electricity for sanders. >> i asked what is bernie talking about and they had lots to say. i said what are some policy proposals hillary clinton made? crickets. they didn't know anything about what she had talked about. >> here's what they said about whether vice president joe beaden should get in the race? >> how many want joe biden to get in the race? who thinks it would be a good thing for joe bietden to enter the race. only one of you. raise your hand if you think joe biden is qualified. what are your reasons for not wanting him? >> i can't put my finger on it. i don't have a good reason why i don't think he should run. >> i'm not sure he would make the best president. i worry sometimes about some of the things that he's done and said. >> he's a little bit wishy washy

with some things. he seems like a fun guy but i don't know if commander in chief would be. >> he almost seems like a guy you wouldn't go mind catching a game with. >> you see pictures of him having a birthday party with his kids and him and obama walking around with super soakers and stuff like that. it's funny and great but i don't think he's a president who would be, i don't know if he would be able to stand up. >> joe biden. >> i think he's a good support person but i think he has such a big heart he can't be the face of the united states he needs to be but he's really smart and talented so he's that good person to have behind the scenes. >> no joe biden for you either? >> yeah, i would have to agree with what she said. i don't feel like the fire is there. it's not catching like some of the rest of the candidates.

>> i worry about his temperament a little bit and the decisions he makes. >> i have to tell a personal story. our son died. i know there's no way he could focus on what he needs to focus on for five years probably. >> guys, really surprised. no takers. >> i would say mark and i both agree about that. the most surprising thing on the democratic side was the absolute lack of enthusiasm among these democratic voters for joe biden to get in the race. a lot of them said if he's not in already, he doesn't want it. they feel that has messed up his head. we played the colbert interview. most of the people in the room in both groups looked at the tape and said that guy shouldn't run. >> one person said that guy shouldn't be vice president now.

he's not up to being in the arena. >> my response buzz just -- >> focus groups are not poles. if you listen to the voices, much different than the poles. these were not people who thought he should be in the race. >> harold will tell you the same thing. i get a lot more by knocking on ten doors and taking what those ten people randomly said and reeding the ver baits in poles than i ever did for numbers. if you have that many people over that, they're saying this about joe biden or jeb bush on the republican side, it's bad news. >> i'm sure the clinton campaign is conducting focus groups themselves. it's a lot to learn. those folks talking about her personality and her approach to talking about these issues. i hope they're watching a lot of this. >> one positive, they talk about whether or not the vice president may not be up to it

because the things that have happened is light. that goes well for mrs. clinton as you get going here. the sanders stuff is real. anybody would suggest this guy cannot continue to hold the fire he has is kidding ourselves. >> mika, we have, we go through this every seven days where everybody predicts the end of donald trump. i found it's bled into the week. last few days i've had people, it's happening. i'm like okay, name the poles that he's losing. well, he's going down. >> i got it. here we go. it is remarkable that people with advanced degrees come up to me and say the same thing, said it about 20 times now. we just got fresh poles out of the three most important swing states.

same thing about the national pole he's going to be in last place. zblf get your tweets out. come on. eat your cheetos. it's over for donald trump. listen to the new poles. >> what the what? donald trump and ben carson have passed senator marco rubio and jeb bush in their home states. >> trump is doubling rubio and bush? >> 28% to 14%. carly fiorina at 7%. >> there's no way he can carry this in middle america. >> what the what the what. >> carson at 18 and kasich

trailing. >> if any other candidate in the history of poling at this stage of the game was actually, i'm right here, guys. hi. if any other candidate in the history of poling was doubling a sitting senator running for president and the most iconic give nor of the past 50 years for the republican party, it's over. then if you go to ohio and he's doubling the sitting governor of ohio with really high numbers in ohio squl are yho. >> are you saying they're wrong? >> we have now gone from bush derangement syndrome to obama derangement syndrome to trump der rangement syndrome among the elites. these numbers would be stunning if it weren't donald trump.

>> there's one conclusion. trump has to get out of the race. he has to quit now. he's sliding. >> can you believe. >> people are asking trump every day. are you going to get out of the race? he's doubling the sitting senator and iconic governor in florida and doubling an extraordinarily republican governor. >> it must be all that spending on adds and stuff, right. oh wait. >> he's ahead by 10 point lead over kasich in ohio. >> up until now ohio was the only state where trump wasn't winning. the previous poles kasich was winning. now we have the last state to fall. >> i just wanted to say really quickly to ron. ron, i know you've had the same reaction from friends and family members when you went back to

michigan that i did in florida. this past week sitting around three educated floridans who voted for bush and rock solid republicans. i said who are you voting for? one of the best doctors in south florida, trump. i asked somebody else that worked in washington who are you voting for? trump. i asked another person who i would have guessed would have said rubio or bush in an instant. who are you voting for? trump. why? there's a general attraction to the fact that he's not only one of them but he's strong and they've been so let down by the republican party they're not stupid. in fact, they're some of the best people in their respected fields. they are so sick of washington. they really do think this guy who doesn't always complete his sentences in debates can go

there and get it. i know you've had a similar reaction when you've went back to michigan and said this isn't about trump, this is about trump voters. explain that. >> i spent most of the summer in michigan and there again this weekend and i keep running into people i call crazy buds. family members, friends, folks who i bump into and talk about the election. they'll say that guy is crazy, but he's taking on the establishment. he's crazy but punishing the media. he's crazy but understands how my heart is going to get ahead. he's going to change things. he's a reflection of how angry this country is right now. how disconnected most americans are with both political parties and i personally don't think he's qualified to be the president of my country. not for a second do i underestimate the possibility he could win a nomination and the

presidency which is why i think when he's on the show we need to hold him accountable for the things he's saying and realize, this is a real thing. this guy could have his finger on the nuclear button. that's something he's ready for. is there anything behind the bluster because the public is angry enough that they might go the final step with this guy. >> well, he makes himself available. it's not hard to do that. i think a lot of people are asking him questions. let me finish these poles. trump and carson dominate in pennsylvania at 23% and 17% respectively with marco rubio coming in at 12. both trails christie and ties with mike huckabee for second place. what the heck is going on? >> we are way other and we have so much to get to. bob with new reporting, important. ben carson, we have so much to

talk about and alex, forgive me. this is an a-block story too. you guys saw it wherever you went. at what point do jeb bush's people start panicking? it's time to panic. these poles at 4% and chris christie ahead of him in pennsylvania. he does poorly in all these states. you guys in new hampshire and iowa, the one thing i was told when i first started running by an old campaign consultant, he said son, you can take any emotion from voters but the second you get pity, it's over. once they feel sorry for you, it's over. yet you told me last night how do they feel about jeb bush? >> we'll be back tomorrow with our focus groups on the republican groups and we'll talk about this a lot. just as a brief preview, it's the case, it's extraordinary in iowa and new hampshire vote that

there's no interest in any of these groups. there's no enthusiasm for them. no sense he can win. the word i used was pity for bush. people feeling sorry for him. the groups are bad. >> you heard this in new hampshire again. >> very negative. to the point they don't take it seriously that he could be the nominee and for the first time, i think, you'll understand better than you have and we did why ben carson is doing so much better than jeb bush. >> oh my gosh. that is, i'll admit right here on camera, that is mind boggling to me. >> how well ben carson is doing? >> verses jeb bush. jeb bush -- >> i would say verses everybody. >> everybody. i will say it and i've said it before. jeb bush is one of the most competent, tough, decisive. >> accomplished.

>> conservative, accomplished leaders i have been across in 20 years of living my life surrounded by politicians behind closed doors when nobody's looking, i would put nobody. bill clinton is a first second for somebody whose knowledgeable. there's not a close call for a leader who compares to jeb bush in leadership skills in times of crisis when hurricane, the antithesis of what his brother did with katrina. this happening shows how upside down the political world is. >> we'll show you more with what we have straight ahead. straight ahead we'll bring in the washington post and unreported details on donald trump's campaign strategy and we're going to show you the comments from ben carson about the shooting victims in oregon. plus republican presidential

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he's here. i'm getting grief from scott walker before we're on the air. >> you deserve it. joining us now the editor of the weekly standard bill crystal and a washington pole editorial jonathan. to add to these strong trump numbers out of the swing states a national pole shows donald trump way ahead of the rest of the pack up 17 on his next closest opponents jeb bush and ben carson.

>> today you have bush at 16. >> i mean at what point? >> that's national. >> get out of the race, trump. >> it's time, right bill. >> 33%. i don't think donald trump will be the nominee. i think ben carson will be stronger than donald trump. i'm for people staying in the race. >> joining us from capitol hill, robert costa. he recently set down with an hour interview with trump. he's reporting on details on trump's strategy and outlook. >> the big thing is trump is going to go up on tv. he's been reluctant to spend money on tv adds. he told us he's going to spend 20 million, perhaps much more. he's hired an add firm in florida. the adds are being made and said

they're going to be conventional and fun. his wife, daughter ivanka, they're going to hit the campaign trail and try to close up a gap with women voters an turn out a policy of trade with china and get back to the message. >> and so he's actually, you say he's plotting a second act. is he moving towards the realization he has to act more like a conventional candidate at least organizationally and when it comes to advertising? >> when it comes to advertising and operations, joe, he wants to move toward a more traditional campaign. we said firmly, he's going to stay being donald trump. being himself is why he's ascended in his mind. he wants to be better on the ground and knows the attacks are coming. that's why he's making the adds. >> does donald trump appreciate

the story? >> is he open to the trump -- what does -- >> this is what happens to bill crystal even when he's off the air. i wasn't going to rub your nose in it on the air. you said donald trump was going to be out of the race in tfrom beginning. you know what, trump scarborough has a better chance of winning than crystal scott walker or the other people you've supported through the process. i'm not supporting donald trump but i'm not an inside elite like you. >> trump has magazines piled ston top of his desk. he watches morning joe regularly, almost every day and good thing about trump is he

reads the bilogs. >> you can't name too many candidates that don't watch us. >> that's true. he reads and understands the press. he's more successful than any candidate. they think they're forcing the other candidates to react and they don't see the reaction. >> talking to you and his campaign manager about how legitimate what they're building in the early stakes are. they're trying to bring new people in and build a new organizati organization. >> they have rick santorum's guy. he comes out of the american prosperity world. he knows grass roots politics. that's the kind of thing he's trying to build for trump. >> let's get serious. the trump numbers in florida and the new cue pole are stunning and double sitting senators. same thing up in ohio, pretty

stunning. approval ratings in the 60s. what is happening here with donald trump nationally roiters pole explosive. what's happening? >> and the carson numbers. >> if you set here six, eight, nine months ago and said carson will win by two in the big states and marco rubio will be there. it is stunning. people want an outsider. i think the interesting question is among trump, carson and fiorina, there's a lot of fluidity. i think fiorina will come up stronger. one of those three, or two will be a finalist. the biggest mistake people in washington are making, they still think it's been crazy, whack kz y six or eight months but the end of the day we fall

back to normal and we'll end up with bush or rubio. i do not agree with that. i think one or two will end up as finalist. >> let me show you and give and you a look at the guy in second place. new york times writes ben carson suggests victims of gun violence were overly passive. listen the what he said yesterday. >> dr. carson if a gunman walks up and puts a gun at you and says what religion are you? that is the ultimate test of your fate. >> i'm glad you answered that question. not only would i probably not cooperate with them, i would not just stand there and let them shoot me. i would say hey guys everybody attack him. he may shoot me but he can't shoot us all. >> accusing the dead victims of being overly passive in the

shootings before i guess many of them are buried it's stunning. it really is. chime in. >> it's outrageous what he said but this is keeping in line with what dr. carson has been saying throughout his campaign. these outrageous statements that really make you wonder why on earth is he number two. but in a campaign where we have seen outrageous statements one after another from the front runner in the campaign, from donald trump he has seen his support go up each time he has said something outrageous. dr. carson, it seems a little different in his comments and especially that one. i'm sorry. if you have a gun pointed in your face, i don't think you're going to say hey guys, come on, let's rush him. that's just ridiculous. >> the fact is, we don't know

what happens when somebody's pointing a gun at you. i'm sure a presidential candidate shouldn't accuse people -- >> he didn't accuse to be fair -- he made a statement about what he thought he might dochlt it's a statement reflecting the spirit of light. let's get together and charge even though they knew it would cause individuals their lives. i don't think that's fair to ben carson. he likes to speculate about things like this which you shouldn't do. he wasn't accusing the people shot. >> that's the thing. he's tone deaf. >> he is tone deaf and said something he shouldn't have said. nobody in polite society would have said that and nobody would have suggested that america's turning into notsy germany as he did a couple of weeks ago and we have to stand up against the closest person to hitler in america. >> carson was criticized for comments but said he was

speaking in general terms and not criticizing the students. take a listen. >> of course, you know, if everybody attacks that gunman he's not going to be able to kill everybody. if you sit there and let him shoot you one by one, you're all going to be dead. >> in a time of great stress like that, one might not know exactly what to do and to judge them, sound like you're judging them. >> not judging them at all. these incidents continue to occur. i want to plant the seed in people's minds so this if this happens again they don't all get killed. >> so he wants to plant the stee seeds in people's mind if somebody has a gun, charge them. ron, final thoughts. >> it's funny he's not talking about the kind of gun that these people have that make it harder to be able to charge somebody. for some of these people, apparently, the last thing they said is i am a christian.

the last breath they took, is he second guessing them? >> ben carson is one person who talked a lot about that. he made a postthat went vir viral #iamachristian. at the end of the day carson is the one trying to call attention to the fact they were killed because of that. >> the american heroes on the train in france rushed the guy with a gun. >> they were military. >> they were military. i wouldn't judge students who were gunned down and killed. apparently, that's okay. >> we appreciate it. thanks, guys. on tomorrow's show we're going to be talking to presidential candidate bernie sanders. >> you don't want to read this

facebook post? >> he said he's never seen a body full of bullet holes. >> carly fiorina joins us later this morning. man, we got a lot to talk about. we'll be right back as the draft carson, crystal campaign really starts to take off and all of america reflectively gags. we'll be right back. . take time for sunday. just know that your truck... has a little thing for monday.

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and making it impossible for people to live and people said they can't afford the price of a tank of propane has went up. people who lived in fairly descent houses and cooked on their stove are cooking over fires in their backyard. >> do you have any sense of the control they're governing they're loading people in the back of trucks and sneaking them out. more and more people are coming every week. i think they are, if they've ever had any support among local people, it's dwindling. some support them and some work for them because there's no

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what are you making of the new hillary clinton e-mail stories coming out? >> one seems kind of not sure if it's just complicated on another side issue. >> the connecticut tech firm, looks like they're going to be able to retrieve more of the e-mails. >> we'll see. she keepings saying it was allowed. >> we know the answer. top obama o fishes have told us

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welcome back to morning joe. a beautiful day in new york city. we have a thousand people here with us at the table. bloomberg politics and msnbc contributor and former democratic congressman. the national journal and washington post and is bill crystal still with us? what? >> he's gone back to the top of his penthouse. apparently his penthouse suite has a leaky roof. >> in washington we have host of meet the press daily chuck todd because you really need to have your vitamins down. >> he works seven days a week.

>> let's start with new poles out of swing states. we've been hearing the past several months donald trump was about to collapse. we've heard it the past couple of days. >> donald trump and ben carson have passed senator marco rubio and jeb bush in their home states. carson at 18% and kasich trailing at 13. senator ted cruz at 11% and jeb bush at 4%.

on the democratic side hillary clinton has a big lead at 19% while hillary clinton is at 43% but biden passes sanders in ohio 21% to 19%, the vote behind clinton up 40%. in pennsylvania biden leads tra clinton. >> clinton looking strong in

swing states. we focus more on national poles. in the swing states she's looking very strong. donald trump, we talked about it in the last hour. talking about the demise or slow collapse. he's doubled marco rubio and then you go to ohio and he's up 10 points over a governor in ohio who has an approval rating in the 60s. these numbers, at least to me don't seem to be getting any weaker for donald trump. >> well, until you look at the general election part of things, you do, in these same poles, joe, this is actually interesting in both the leaders and both primaries, hillary clinton and donald trump are also the two most unpopular people tested with the general election primary.

neither one of them are the most electable of their respected parties. it's biden and carson in all of these states, by the way, that are the strongest general election candidates. >> trump's problem right now, i think, is as he has solid identified his portion of the republican e lelector. he's not shown the ability to be. >> you keep saying that. >> does that matter to primary voters? >> these pole numbers for any other candidate would be seen as staggering in florida and ohio stagg

staggering. >> the roiters pole. >> i put these numbers out here and you're talking about a general election a year from now with a guy that's not going to be there in carson. i'm not doing trump's bidding. i'm just wondering why people can't look at these numbers and go those are pretty damn good number. >> there's nothing wrong with that. why are you so dismissive of carson when he is just as been basically the second strongest in primary in every one of these poles and stronger in a general election? i'm just throwing that out there.

>>. >> if i've been carrying anybody's water, it's jeb bush's. i think we're still making the mistakes as the chattering classes we've made for three or four months now. >> in fairness, if you look at the numbers, he's ahead. the altitude has come down a little bit. too, there's still a three out of four republicans against them. >> that's not true. those numbers in florida are stronger than they've ever been. >> he was -- >> not in florida. >> he's been in the 30s. still three out of four voters still voting against him.

>> you guys are setting me up to look like a donald trump defender. you are like republicans who deny climate change. you are trump deniers. put up the pole really quickly. yal i can't believe i'm having to do this. i will now retire. >> i'm going to agree with you in this respect, joe. i think chuck has a point. the general election numbers matter to some extent. if nebraska bush had performed, if jeb bush had been in the lead in iowa, new hampshire and all the swing states for the last four months and jeb bush had those numbers, no one would be looking for reasons to explain why it wasn't real.

he's the clear front runner. there would be no caveats about it. with trump, everybody looks for caveats. >> my feeling is based upon the ordinary people, seriously, i'm serious now. i'm serious. this is a country that lives at the moment now because of the collapse of the economy in 2008. we live of the moment. most families live paycheck to paycheck. very few families are thinking about the general election still a year off. if you talk to people and ask what do you think about the election? trump. who do you think would be the strongest against the russians? trump. they haven't thought about it. that's what's going on. i deeply believe that. >> ron, if there were august, i would be a bit more skeptical as

we all are skeptical in august and i will tell you after every debate, every republican debate i look at the tv screen and my eyes blink and i go what the held just happened? he's not even completing s sentences. people don't care. we're in october. >> at the risk of kissing up to powerful people, i'm going to say both you and chuck are right. >> he's harold ford now. he's learned at the feet of the master. can we have a split screen with ron and harold ford? they were separated at birth. >> i love that comparison. >> okay. >> i made the argument last hour, joe, i agree with you we got to take trump seriously and go all the way and mike, you just hit on why. we're in a very unpredictable

time. voters are looking for change. there is a caveat in politics, always. there's always another side. one said of numbers you want to look at is what is the biggest voting block in the republican party right now? it's the republicans who say they will not vote for trump. yes, he's high in the poles and a front runner now and can win the nomination and he has structural problems we can't ignore. >> i need to go back to chuck todd too. i don't want people to misunderstand what i'm saying. i guess as a politician whose been here, you can only, if it's second down and you got 14 to go, you can only focus on second down. what are we going to do? where are we right now on the field? i'm not thinking about the fourth quarter. it's a play at a time. where donald trump is right now is where every politician would want to be. we see these poles change. three months ago trump was upside down in his own party.

i'm thinking if i'm donald trump i'm going to win iowa and i'm going to, i worry about the general election. when i get to the general election nixon said you run to the right and in primaries you go to the center and generals, i guess that's my point. i have the same concerns as you do for the candidates. just judging right now where we are in the game, he's looking strong. >> he is and i hear that. at the same time, where does the capacity grow and how does he get to the 50% mark when he gets down there? you look at it and you look at these negative ratings he has outside of the republican e l lek -- it's concern she can't

win the nomination, it's concern she can wen the nomination, she's going to be the nominee. you can't judge clinton and trump in different ways too. we look at clinton's numbers stronger in the pray mary aimar i think there's questions about her elect blt. what i was pointing out is both parties are being led by two people who the general election elector considers electable. >> these elections we've seen feed on themselves. y you win iowa and then new hampshire, you're going to roll through. >> voters will look at you differently. >> and the rest of the deep south. sudd suddenly we see success breed success. >> touch upon the latest with hillary clinton's e-mails. i know judicial is asking a

question i haven't seen asked yet which is who authorized this private server, who allowed it. >> that's a great point. the hillary clinton e-mails continue to be a big story. we have a story in the washington post today about more investigations about the kind of companies working on the e-mails. on the trump front, mika, what we found out in our hour long sit down with trump, he's going to spend 20 million plus on advertising. also putting his wife and daughter on the campaign trail to try to close the gap with women and turn back to populism on trade and chinese and try to get back to trade. >> bill crystal, who can beat trump? obviously, you're concerned about donald trump for the good of the conservative movement, for the good of the republican party, for the good of bill

crystal's america. who is the candidate you think has the best shot at taking donald trump down? >> not jeb bush, i think. trump is the anti bush and benefitted from it and destroyed jeb bush's hopes of being the republican nominee. i think carly fiorina, marco rubio are the two most credible. i think ben carson is underrated by people like us. he's done an excellent dismount from the bush ban wagon and to the trump band wagon. i want to congratulate on that again. >> just because donald trump delivered a chocolate donut to you this morning on your balcony at trump towers. >> i've been anti trump in the sense i think people have to take him seriously. here's the question from me. which of the other candidates

captures some of trump's message? the sensible pa parts that have lasting power. i think carly fiorina or rubio. i'm more and more impressed by fiorina in that i think she's an outsider to politics but i understand the urgency. we need big change. i'm not a loose cannon like donald trump. >> and carly will be with us in five minutes. >> yeah, we're going to talk to her. let's move on and get the latest on the server issues with hillary clinton. ai second i.t. firm has agreed to hand over server data. clinton hired data incorporated based in connecticut to back up information on the cloud. the accompany noted they had a 60 day retention policy with plat river networks.

the accompany that operated clinton's server but now many of the e-mails are likely gone. senator ron johnson also asked the accompany to hand over any preserved e-mails to his committee. a clinton spokesman accused him of mounting his own taxpayer sham with the sole purpose of attacking hillary clinton. >> ron, it's good to know that holderman has a workout for all these years and has apparently latched on as a spokes person for hillary clinton's campaign. investigation, what investigation? i'm very confused on the back ups of these e-mails, obviously, the fbi wants to get their hands on all the e-mails. the fbi according to obama, high ranking obama officials has been reported in the press.

but why all the questions about them wiping the server clean, hillary being about that and talking about a cloth. never answering directly whether it had been wiped clean or not. now we're finding out there's back up here and back up there. what have you been able to figure out? >> well, nothing really. they haven't been telling us the truth. they've been holding back the truth and deceiving us. lo look, we don't know and may never know what was in the e-mails deleted and whether there was any original wrong doing on our behalf of secretary of state. we can assume there wasn't wrong doing as far as all the rumors out there and that kind of thing. what we do know is it was bad government and against regulations, at least nine months in her term to have a colbert server that took all of our e-mail out of the public domain. we do know that was in ago zamora gags of the freedom of

information act. it went around congressionals right and responsibility for oversite and we know that the only reason we found out about that was because of a congressional investigation. this is all self-inflicted wounds and all stuff she put up, caused her own problem and i'm having a hard time feeling sorry for the poor hillary clinton campaign. >> i hear some questions out there as to whether or not the server is property. >> that's why the federal judge, ron, that's why the federal judge was trying to figure out yesterday and trying to figure out. i guess judicial watches brought this case. if, who authorized it and the argument is if nobody authorized it then it is a rogue server and the federal government needs to seize it. if the state department authorized it, which they did not according to high ranking officials at the state

department, but if they did it is government property and they need to seize it as well. >> who had authority to override federal regulations? i don't think anybody did. who actually did it? who went through her e-mails and deleted them? do they have security clearance? why did she say from the beginning there was no confidential top secret information in her e-mail when now we know there clearly was. why has she said none of them was marked classified and understand that didn't matter either way. people have been prosecuted for less. there's so many questions she hasn't answered and until she does there's going to be a layer of doubt over her campaign. >> my daily dose of mtp. what is it today? >> i think it's a busy day on the campaign trail. you look at clinton, bush, trump, all are in iowa today. not many days where you have that. i think center of the campaign

world is definitely iowa. >> bill crystal, they're coming up to your penthouse and fixing your leak. you can go back to your gold plated treadmill. >> as always, been great being with you guys. >> we love you. >> you too. >> thank you so much. bob, what are you working on today? >> continuing to look at the 2016 race but also right behind me, house leadership elections coming up tomorrow. >> that should be fun. thank you all. still ahead on morning joe congressman tray gouty joins us. and presidential candidate carly fiorina is next on morning joe. ♪ the new 2016 ram limited.

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we're back. >> shiny shirt. >> let's see. hold on. >> it's sort of like. >> it looks gray. >> you went to 54 last night.

>> i did, actually. it was great. there was actually a special night for bald guys. >> it's awesome. i wish i could have gone. >> let's bring in on the phone republican presidential candidate carly fiorina. good morning, how are you this morn something. >> good, mika. >> we hear you might be the one to take on donald trump. how is the campaign feeling so far? >> good morning to everyone by the way, joe and accompany. the campaign is feeling really good. we have a lot of momentum obviously, but this is a long race. i think the key is making it through the long haul is neither to get too high nor too low. we've got a long way to go but i'm encouraged by the momentum we have and the support we're building on the ground with voters, donors. i'm pleased with where we are.

>> we showed earlier this week iowa and new hampshire poles, match ups between a lot of republicans and democrats, you against hillary clinton, you're up by 14 points in the general election against hillary clinton. i think you're up by 8 in new hampshire. we also showed a lot of poles in the primary as well and i guess the question is while democrats do find you as mika has said horrifying. >> no, terrifying. >> mika said the democrats find you terrifying. the question is how do you get to the general election and get past donald trump, ben carson and the others ahead of you in a lot of other states? >> well, first i think we keep doing what we've been doing. we started this race with very little name recognition. we started this race with most

saying it was impossible. we started this race not even registering and here we are in the top tier. i think what that demonstrates is that as people get to know me and hear me and understand who i am, what i've done and most importantly what i will do, they tend to support me. we're going to keep doing what we have been doing which is spend a lot of time on the ground with voters in these key states and spend a lot of time making sure we take advantage of every opportunity to demonstrate who i am and what i can do whether it's a debate or other opportunities and i think what you're seeing is the race is starting to settle out and some people perhaps have already peaked. >> so often people have scored with you about your experience in the business world. i think you and i have had our moments but let me ask it a different way. how would you appearance apply

to how uyou would attack this economy specifically as it pertains to wages? >> first it helps if you're going to get the economy going and growing again to understand how it works and a lot of politicians don't with all do respect. second, it helps to have actually saved jobs, created jobs and understand which policies destroy jobs. let's with honest, the progressive policies have been income inequality worse, not better. the policies have harmed every group they claim to have helped. women, aft women, african americans and people who are grinding it out. the truth is this, crony capitolism is alive and well and flourishes under powerful government. the bigger government gets the more true is also is only the big, the powerful and the wealthy and well connected can

handle it and the small and powerless get crushed. specifically, what's happening is 0 interest rate policies are harming small business owners and capitol is now flowing away. job creation has been small, new and family owned businesses, we're destroying more of those than we're creating. it helps to understand all that. liberal policies have failed. frankly under republican poll tigs we haven't made it much better because government continues to get bigger and more complicated. >> good morning. if elected would you plenl to submit a balanced budget in our first term? >> yes. i think one of the keys to submitting the balanced budget and good morning, mark, is starting by knowing where the money is being spent. you know, the truth is in

appropriate hearings, we talk about the rate of last year's budget. all the money is spoken for. >> what are the outlines of how you balance the budget in your first term? >> let's start with what i was about to say. we need to know where the money is being spent. i would start to submit a plan for zero based budgeting. have you ever noticed how the federal government spends more money every year and never has enough money to do the important things. it never has enough money to secure the border or answer taxpayer questions or fix roads and bridges and yet it spends more money every year because bur rocs bureaucracies hang on to money that's been appropriated. i would start by saying what is it that's the federal government's job. there's a lot of things that isn't their job and the things that are their jobs, securing the boarder and fixing roads and

bridges and answering taxpayer questions, they're not doing. it will require the help of citizens which is why i will galvanize the common sense and good judgment of the american citizens to put pressure on congress. >> before we turn to harold ford, can you name one thing you would cut? >> loads of things i would cut. let's just look at the department of education for one. i know it's a favorite but let's face it. the department of education has spent more money each and every year for 40 years under republicans and democrats and the quality of education has started to deteriorate or let's start by rolling back the epa regulation that a bureaucracy elected an accountable to no one that has rolled out crushing industries and destroying industri industries. let's start with those two. >> good morning. two things. the deficit has come down over the last two years.

we've seen some of the things that's happened in washington. my question is this. what is it, one of the big questions is that the democrats and republicans don't work together. what unique qualities do you bring to help democrats work together as republicans? what is it that would make you work well with liberals and other democrats in washington to get things done? >> those are both great questions. first, one of the things that's happening, you're right, the deficit has come down a little. it's paper money. it's hunl and out of control. it's come down a little. it's come down a little in part of a cozy budget deal both republicans and democrats are fortunate for. they're hitting us right where they shouldn't be hitting us. in regard to your question, as well as what's in my own party.

in three weeks they came together and passed a bill that said we can fire the top 400 senior executives. why did they work together? because the american people were outra outraged. it's not partisan. 82% of the american people think we have a professional political class of both parties that cares more about its own than getting anything done.

i have so say i have lots of democrats show up because the fundamentals we're talking about now taking our government back, getting it back under control and having it do well, the things it's suppose to do and get out of the things it's not suppose to do, that's not a partisan issue. people show things aren't working anymore. nothing's getting done in partisanship is part of it. those things are actually united. >> carly fiorina, thank you very much. always good to have you on the show. >> thank you all. have a great day. >> by the way, can i just say i don't usually like to rate guests that we have here, i've got to say this segment i think that was the absolute best that i've ever heard mark.

he was great. he was to the point and i think. >> he's shiny. >> he's staying alive. >> i thought his questions were all impish. >> i think what you have to do is the a certain point is get out of carly's way and at a certain point you have to know where this is all going and you let the shine of your shirt and head take over. >> let us breathe. >> oh my gosh. >> let it breathe. >> mark, we're going to be talking to you. >> coming up, bill clinton answers a critical question about the phone call with donald trump. did he really urge the billionaire to run for president. more on morning joe coming up. with two ways to earn on purchases, it makes a lot of other cards seem one sided.

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. did you call donald trump and ask him to run for president? >> no. i get credit for doing a lot of things i didn't do like that. >> credit. >> mark, he actually had the big piece on donald trump. >> yeah. he said donald trump is not going anywhere. the poles are suggesting he's not going anywhere and yet the polite political punted free class predicts every day that

donald trump is going anywhere. he's sitting at 33% of the latest roiter's pole. >> first of all, that's the genius of the double naming in the headline. donald trump not going anywhere. you could read it as he's here to stay or he's stuck in the mud. i'm very much. >> you guys are the times. very clever. >> these are the headlines. >> you don't write the headlines or take the pictures. >> only if people like them. i'll take credit for it. i do think, look, these latest poles are another indication that not only does he have staying power but the message is something that's evolving which is i am not of the political class. i don't care what they say about me or what you say about me. you are all part of the system that's failed over and over and over again and i'm a different animal. not that he's a different animal but he's unif you recalling new sides of himself. he's pivoting on to new strvetes

issues. he's getting into a more issue oriented phase of his campaign and the other thing people may be over looking about him is he's not spent a cent or barely spent a cent. he hasn't advertised yet. in so much that his poles are not as soring as they were a few weeks ago. he has created certainly a bit of a floor under him and going to be here for a while. >> mark, you missed our conversation about a lot of trump skeptics here going through climate change deniers. >> if jeb bush had donald trump's pole numbers over the last couple of months, they would be saying this race is over. >> is he building a bond with his supporters?

two is, can anyone over take him? someone's going to have to get in and over take him. lastly, as i said earlier, is he building an organization, is he doing the traditional blocking things he does. if he does, a guy drawing crowds of thousands in iowa signing them up and getting caucus, he can't be stopped in iowa. >> my point is about the numbers. he's come down. having said all that, there's no doubt this guy is going to be here throughout this race unless he decides himself he doesn't want to be and listening to when he said, he wants to be in this thing until the end. >> coming up next, congressman tray -- joins us. he's under the microscope after the comments about the man who may be the next one in the house. coming u. , ing up

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the admit it.ns finally >>"republican kevin mccarthy saying ...the committee investigating benghazi and clinton's emails was created to destroy her candidacy..." "everybody thought hillary clinton was unbeatable, right? but we put together a benghazi special committee... what are her numbers today?" republicans have spent millions attacking hillary... ...because she's fighting for everything they oppose... ...from affordable health care. ...to equal pay... she'll never stop fighting for you. and the republicans know it. >>i'm hillary clinton and i approved this message.

. i think mccarthy answered it. they set down and said how can we derail hillary clinton and destroy her campaign and how can we use taxpayer dollars, hard earned taxpayer dollars to do it? >> joining us now from capitol hill republican congressman tray goudy from south carolina. >> a lot of the posts caught a lot of us, not by surprise, we can understand your disappoint lt and bitterness. the question i was asking is i was upset kevin said what he said. how in the world do you want to ring that bell as we would say

evidence before the jury? how do you unring that bell? >> you have to do a good job on october 22nd and you have to ask folks to look at what you've done and not what others have said. kefb is not on the benghazi committee and doesn't know we've interviewed 41 witnesses including seven eyewitnesses. i would just respectfully ask folks to look at what we've done and look at october 22nd and you'll see a professional fair appearing and that's all i can do is ask people to focus on actions and not words. >> you and i both like kevin very much. he's a great guy. i can't imagine how angry i would be if i were in your position working nonstop to bring credibility to what i consider to be a very important investigation and then a guy who consider aid friend and allie under cut you this way. what was your reaction? kevin is a friend which makes a

disappointment more bitter. what was your reaction when you first heard his comments? >> well, he is a friend but my first reaction is kefb, you're wrong. when speaker boehner called me, he never mentioned secretary clinton's name. in fact, we've had three public hearings. i never mentioned her name. if you look at what we've done, the 50 some odd witnesses we've already interviewed, not a single one has been named clinton. the 50,000 documents we have accessed no other committee has accessed, less than 5% had anything to do with her. she was the sec at the tear of state at all relevant times. of course, you would have to start with her. we didn't start with her and we're not going to end with her. in fact, i became patient on when she came before the committee. i still don't have all her e-mails. we had a thousand last week. >> i also know this, congressman. we wouldn't know any of this as

ron said if it wasn't for the work your committee did. >> well, i think our committee was doggnot letting up. we also in a little bit of humility which is unusual in my profession, the media has done every bit as much work as our committee because number one, you have better sources than i do and number two, it's not my job to look at the classified information or all aspects of her e-mail. my interest in her e-mail is making sure the record as it relates is complete and full and as you'll remember, she says she's turned over everything to the state department. >> congressman, there were huge gaps during the time of the benghazi attacks, weren't there. >> there were gaps and also of course 15 e-mails yes we know there were e-mails work related she never turned

over to the state department but she deserved a chance to be asked about that and that's one of the things we'll do on the the 2nd. >> looking at the political damage of kevin damage of kevin mccarthy's statements, there are a lot of people who do feel that this committee is basically just trying to take down hillary clinton, derail her political ambitions. with all the work you have done so far, do you feel this bell will be unrung by what you reveal? >> can you repeat that question? >> with all the work you have done so far, do you think you'll be able to show some revelations to show this was worth it and wasn't a political witch hunt? >> well, i heard part of that. i feel like i'm in a wind tunnel here. i heard you ask about the work and whether i think it will be undone and i hope not. if people look at what we have done and not what others have said, i think they will be impressed that we have interviewed 41 witnesses that no

other committee has interviewed. so when i hear this montra about seven or eight previous investigations and an arb, it makes me wonder how did you miss these seven eyewitnesss and the witnesses we found that you department find. how did you miss the 50,000 documents and do your job without any of her e-mails? >> mr. chairman, do you plan to directly question secretary clinton yourself and on the question of her e-mails, what are two questions you plan to ask her on that topic at the hearing? >> the answer to the first question is, yes, sir, all members of our committee are going to question secretary clinton and we're working on it as late as 11:00 last night. we were working on benghazi centric lines of question. with respect to the e-mails, my interest is in making sure that everything i'm entitled to i have received. when you say that the public

record is complete, and i know that there are 15 e-mails that u yo never turned over to the state department, that's a fair line of inquiry. >> what's the question about that? >> the question is how did you miss it? you have repeatedly said that you turned over everything. what about these 15? if there are 15 here, how do you guarantee you did turn over everything when it was your lawyers that did the analysis and not the inspector general. >> chairman gowdy, good morning. you distanced yourself from mccarthy's comments. where do you think he came up with that appraisal of what your committee is doing? what was this motivated by, his comments? >> if i knew the answer to that question can, i would be in a different line of work. kevin has apologized as profusely as a human being can apologize. i went back and watched the interview. what i tell folks back home is i don't care how many times you put an ear piece in your ear,

you still screw up and kevin screwed up. i don't know if it was hannity pressing him or he got thrown off by a grade, i can't unlock the mysteries of that. i can just tell you if you look at what the members of our committee have done, we were pretty reluctantly brought into the secretary clinton aspect of it. we worked in anonymity for the first eight months. i got more criticism from the right than i did from the left. it's because "the new york times" and ap and others broke this story that folks' interest in secretary clinton picked up in this regard. our interest in her is because she was the secretary of state at the time. >> for our viewers that may not read more conservative websites and magazines like myself, the congress is right. before "the new york times" started following this story aggressively, trey gowdy's

committee was considered to be a scam to basically get off of them. so that changed when "the new york times" started reporting some of the information they dug up. >> congressman, thank you for being on the show this morning. >> thank you. >> we'll be right back. (patrick 1) how about a 10% raise? (patrick 2) how about 20? (patrick 1) how about done? (patrick 2) that's the kind of control i like... ...and that's what they give me at national car rental. i can choose any car in the aisle i want- without having to ask anyone. who better to be the boss of you... (patrick 1)than me. i mean, you...us. (vo) go national. go like a pro.

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up next, new polls out this morning and it's not good news for two candidates who call

florida their home state. and as much as democrats in iowa and new hampshire may like vice president biden personally, it doesn't seem they are too hot on seeming him launch a third bid for the presidency. more from the fascinating new focus groups. and later, jay leno back on "the tonight show"? we'll talk to him about the surprise return to late night last night and his other favorite place to be under the hood in his garage. we'll be right back with much more "morning joe." nfident your company's data is secure, the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at at&t we monitor our network traffic so we can see things others can't. mitigating risks across your business. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. if you struggle you're certainly not alone.

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t-shirt right there. let's make it happen. i mean, really, wouldn't it be wonderful. unbelievable, but wonderful, wouldn't it? i grew up going to wrigley field and being a cubs fan. you have to be a very patient person to be a chicago cubs fan. i think that instills in you character that you can't always expect things to turn out as you wish them to be. but this time, it might actually happen. and so we're all holding our breath and cross iing fingers a toes and sending some prayers skyward. so thanks for wearing that. it gets my blood going. >> i thought she was a yankees fan. >> it's wednesday, october 7th. welcome to "morning joe." >> is she a yankees fan? >> she grew up a cubs fan. >> hillary clinton on the campaign trail. >> you can have more than one team, joe. >> with us is the managing

editors of bloomberg politics mark halperin. and professor at the university of michigan school of public policy, former congressman harold ford jr. and on capitol hill, senior political columnist for the national journal ron forn ya. here are the new focus groups. john sat down with iowa's democrats and mark talked with democrats in new hampshire getting their views toward hillary clinton, joe biden and bernie sanders. here's what the group said about hillary clinton. >> hillary clinton, three words or fewer. >> experience and knowledge. >> experience and caring. >> hillary clinton? >> probably win. >> still impressive. >>. if you had a family situation and could call any of those three democrats for help, which would you call? >> hillary, she seems like the most genuinely concerned. >> she's a mom.

>> she's well connected as well. >> she's an accomplished female leader who in the face of defeat has continued to persevere. >> she has seen how the system works so she might have a better chance of getting things accomplished quicker. >> she can skip over any learning curve. >> a woman stepping into a predominantly male arena and she felt she had to hold her own instead of being who she is and i think she's doing that now. >> my opinion is a little more general in that she speaks articulately about her positions without having that edge and that scorned kind of woman thing. that's a little off putting. i think that can put off a lot of male voters. >> tell me what it's like? what are you seeing? >> i don't want to use the word. it's that women need to be equal.

i don't feel unequal. >> i agree, i don't feel unequal. i don't feel i have had a job where i feel unequal. it's not an issue that speaks to me. >> it's a double standard. if it was a guy saying he would be impassioned. >> do you agree some people might see that? >> oh yeah. >> i think hillary is a strong candidate, but she has that -- >> i don't think you have to have that. >> that condescending and i can see that causing gridlock. >> she seems a little condescending. >> i don't think it's condescending. i'm thinking it's more like i'm a woman, i deserve it. >> if she could lose that, i'd vote for her. >> i think it's not necessary. >> raise your hand if you think that will hurt her chances of getting elected. >> people love her or hate her. that's part of what does that to her. that attitude r or whatever. >> talk about a split decision

between iowa and new hampshire. i mean iowa is a hillary campaign commercial. put music to it and if i'm hillary, i'm running that. new hampshire, there was a real edge. that conversation actually went on much longer in new hampshire. but let's first start with iowa. overwhelming positive sense there. what happened when you brought up other candidates compared to hillary? >> there was a lot of -- i think we're going to talk about joe biden in a minute, but in terms of bernie sanders and clinton, these were all undecided voters. they weren't committed to any of the candidates. there was a lot of enthusiasm for bernie sanders in the room. there was a lot of admiration for hillary clinton. the room was sort of split between the two of them. but there was no doubt that the iowa group, which is reflective of the polls, she seems to be doing in better in iowa than in new hampshire. >> you're not hearing anything about e-mails and that. you're not hearing anything

about trustworthinestrustworthi. when you talk to iowa democrats, none of that seems to surface. >> they all are impressed she's taking iowa more seriously and campaigning closer to the ground. number two, they don't think there's any there there on the e-mail issue. and they think she's handled it badly. so there was a lot of discussion that we had in the group about how she should have owned it sooner, honest sooner, taken it on sooner, but it was all about the politics and perception of it. they don't believe there's core issue there that makes him doubt her. >> so new hampshire, a more skeptical audience. >> similar on the e-mails, they don't like the way she handled it but they don't think it should be a big deal. but the conversation, which we showed a little at the end talking about her personality, we showed her a video of what we thought was her at her best giving a speech about policy and believes and they had a visceral reaction.

once that one woman suggested she might have a personality issue, the whole room agreed. as you saw, show of hands, they think that's what could stop her. she's polarizing and there's aspects of her personality that men in particular won't like. >> we cut a good bit in there out that was even more negative of hillary because we thought it was too negative and didn't like some of the connotations there. >> let's move on to bernie sanders, who we're having on the show tomorrow. here's what groups in iowa and new hampshire had had to say about bernie sanders. >> just describe a bernie sanders presidency. >> more people oriented. the revolution stuff is awesome. >> he tries to get. people involved as he's not going to do it all. let's work on this together. and i think that's the kind of thing people want to be involved in. >> it's funny when you look at him and he's hunched over. he looks like an old dude. but the stuff he says, he's in touch with a lot of the things we're thinking about.

>> bernie sanders, three words or fewer. >> i would say knowledgeable and experienced as well. >> another version of o hope. >> not visionary. >> game changer. >> who is going to win the new hampshire primary? >> probably bernie sanders. >> bernie sanders. >> bernie sanders. >> sanders. >> sanders. . >> sanders. >> sanders. >> who is going to win the iowa caucus? >> i will say bernie sanders. >> i would say bernie. >> bernie. >> bernie. >> i think hillary. >> no opinion. >> hillary. >> i don't know. >> between hillary and bernie. >> no idea. >> do you have concerns about bernie sanders' age? >> a little. my top concern would be like having a president just croak midterm. >> i didn't like john mccain

partially because of his age and he's, i think, sanders is five years older than mccain was. >> anybody in the room who thinks bernie sanders is a socialist but that's a problem? >> i think it will give him problems in the general election if he make s it that far. it's going to be a difficult sell to the rest of america. >> those who think bernie sanders will be the nominee, have you thought that all along or more recently? >> more recently. >> what's changed to make you think that? >> his ability to connect. >> maybe the democrats need something new. something that hasn't been tried. why not bernie? >> that's the question. what do you think? why not bernie? >> it was really surprised that you guys went around in new hampshire. it's all bernie. i said that makes sense. then went to iowa and had a lot of bernie support there too. i started thinking, wait, is this like iowa 2007 when

republicans came up to me and said they were going to be voting for this guy barack obama. get a sense that something is starting to happen out there. >> in my past trips, a lot of people said i like bernie and agree with him on a lot of things compared to hillary clinton, but he's not going to win. we have to go with the person who is going to win. in these two groups, you saw unanimously in the new hampshire group every one of them said bernie sanders would win the new hampshire primary. they haven't taken a position on who they are going to support. a lot of them thought he would be the nominee. that's a big difference. psychologically, if people think he can win or going to win, they are much more likely to consider him and vote for him. i thought that was a huge finding of the voices of these groups. >> that's when the snowball goes down the hill when they start believing. yes, we can. >> what about bernie? >> how competitive in iowa? >> very competitive. the interesting thing to me were

i asked erbe in the room whether they could imagine bernie sanders in president white house. and all but a couple could imagine that possibility. we discussed what that would be like. many of them as with that one guy expressed reservations about him being so far left as a practical political matter. would that hurt him in the general election? but in terms of what they thought on the issues, did they agree with him and his being a socialist? was that a bad thing in terms of ideology, no. that's fine. a number of them sort of said, you know, i wouldn't call myself a socialist, but a lot of the things i believe too. the democratic party has gotten out of touch. we need to go after banks and focus more on working people. there was a lot of that. even though there was a lot of warmth and respect for clinton, there was more enthusiasm and electricity for sanders.

>> you certainly sense that. >> i asked in the new hampshire group what is bernie talking about? they had lots to say. i said what are policy proposals and she's made many specific ones. crickets. didn't know anything about what she's talking abdomen. >> here's what they said whether joe biden should get in the race. >> how many people in the room want joe biden to get in this race? would think it would be a good thing if joe biden entered the race. >> raise your hand if you think joe biden is qualified to be president. >> qualified, i guess you could say that. >> what are your reasons for not wanting him in the race. >> i can't put my finger on it. i don't have a good reason why i don't think he should run. >> i'm not sure he would make the best president for us. i worry sometimes about some of the things that he's done and said. >> he's a little bit wishy washy

with some things. he seems like a really fun guy, but. i don't know as the commander-in-chief would be the best position. >> i don't know we're going for fun guy right now. he almost seems like a guy you wouldn't mind having a few beers with. >> you see pictures of him having a birthday party with his kids and him and obama walking around with super soakers and that's funny. but as a president, i don't know he would be able to stand up. >> i think he's a really good support person, but i think he has such a a big heart he can't be the face of the united states. that he needs to be. he's really smart and talented so he's a good person to have behind the scenes. >> no joe biden for you either? >> i would have to agree with what she said. i just don't feel like the fire is there. it's not catching some of the rest of the candidates.

>> i worry about his temperament a little bit and some of the decisions that he makes. . >> i have to tell a personal story. our son died. i know there's no way that he could focus on what he needs to focus on for five years probably. >> guys, really surprised. no takers on joe biden in iowa or new hampshire. >> i'd say we both agree about this in our respective graups. the most surprising thing was the absolute lack of enthusiasm among these democratic voters for joe biden to get in the race. a lot of them said if he's not in already, he doesn't really want it. a lot of them sympathize with his situation with having lost beau, but feel that has messed up his head. we played the colbert interview for them, which a lot of people saw was powerful and authentic. most of the people in the room in both groups said that guy shouldn't run. >> one person in the new hampshire group said that person should not be vice president.

he's not up to being in the are arena. >> my response was just the opposite. >> focus groups are not polls, but if you listen to the voices, much different than the polls. these were not people who even thought he should be in the race, let alone want to. >> harold says the same thing. these focus groups, i always get a lot more from anecdotal evidence by knocking on tin den doors and reading than i ever did from numbers. if you have that many people and they are saying this about joe biden, or or jeb bush on the republican side, it's bad news. >> i'm sure the clinton campaign is conducting focus groups themselves. there's a lot to learn in what you played. those folks sitting there to talk about her personality and her approach to talking about these issues, i hope they are watching a lot of this closely. the one positive i take is i listen to them talk about joe biden. the vice president may not be up

to it because of things that have happened in his life. that bodes well for hillary clinton. the sanders stuff is real. anybody in any democratic side suggests that this guy can't continue to hold the fire he has is kidding ourselves. >> we go through this every seven days where everybody predicts the end. of donald trump. it usually happens on a sunday. it's bled into the week because the last two days, it's happening. i'm like, well name the polls that he's losing. well, he's going down. >> here we go. >> it is remarkable that people with advanced degrees keep coming up to me and saying the same thing. they have said it about 20 times now. >> here we go again. >> we just got fresh polls out of three of the most important swing states. he must be in third because he's

on a slide and we go through the same thing reuters national poll. >> here it comes. >> he's going to be in last place. >> read them and weep. >> everyone get ready. >> get your tweets out. it's all over for donald trump. so new polls just revealed. let's see what they say. >> what! >> donald trump and ben carson have passed senator marco rubio. >> that's in florida. >> and jeb bush in their home state. >> donald trump is losing. >> trump doubles rubio with 28% to 14%. and jeb bush in fourth place. >> florida is an aberration. >> at 12%, our guest today, carly fiorina at 7%. . >> there's no way that he can carry this in middle america. >> donald trump beats john kasich in his home state. >> stop right here.

if any other candidate in the history of polling at this stage of the game, if any other candidate in the history of polling was doubling a sitting senator run ining for president and the most ie comic governor of the last 50 years, they would say it's over. but then if you go to ohio, and he's doubling the sitting governor of ohio with really high numbers and in ohio. >> are you saying they are wrong? >> he's beating the sitting governor who is really popular in his own state. >> we have gone to obama deranged syndrome to trump derangement syndrome among the e elites. these numbers are nothing short of would be stunning in any other context if it weren't donald trump. >> there's one conclusion. trump has to get out of the

race. >> he has to quit now because he's sliding. can you believe? john heilemann, people are asking donald trump every day, are you going to get out of the race? he's doubling a sitting senator and iconic governor in florida and he's doubling an extraordinary popular republican governor in ohio. >> it must be all that spending on ads and stuff. >> i believe john kasich's approval rating is 65% in ohio. so he's ahead by 10 points over kasich in ohio. >> ohio was the only state where trump wasn't winning up until now. now we have the last state to fall where trump is first. >> i just want to say really quickly to ron. so i know you have had the same reaction from friends and family members when you went back to michigan that i did in florida.

i was talking about it this it past weekend sitting around three educated floridians with advanced degrees who were republicans who voted for bush three times, who are rock solid republicans. and i had my own focus group over pizza, because i love pizza. it's not healthy, i know. i said who are you voting for? one of the best doctors in south florida, trump. i asked somebody else that worked in washington, who are are you voting for? trump. i asked another person who i would have guessed would have said rubio or bush in an inst t instant. trump. and why? there's just this general attraction to the fact not only that he's not one of them but that he's strong and they have been so let down by the republican party. they are not stupid. in fact, they are some of the best people in their respective fields. they are so sick of washington. they really do think that this guy who doesn't always complete his sentences in debates can go in there and get it. i know you have had a similar reaction when you went back to

michigan and said this isn't about trump. it's about trump voters. explain that. >> i spent most of summer in michigan and i was there again this weekend. i keep run ining into. people i call crazy butts. family members, friends, folks i bump into and talk to about the election. they will say that guy is crazy but -- but he's taking on the establishment. that guy is crazy, but he's really punishing the media. that guy is crazy but he understand how my life has turned around and how hard it is to get ahead. he's going to change things. he's a reflection of how angry this country is right now, how disconnected most americans are with both political parties. i personally don't think he's qualified to be the president of my country, but not for a second do i underestimate the possibility that he could win the nomination and even win the presidency, which is why i think when he's on these shows, we need to take him seriously and hold him accountable for the

things he's saying and realize that this is a real thing. this guy could have his finger on o the nuclear button. is that something that he's ready for? what kind of policies would he put forward? is there anything behind the bluster? the public is angry enough that they might go the final step with this guy. >> he makes himself available. it's not hard to do that. i think a lot of people are asking him questions. still ahead on "morning joe," when jay leno is arriving somewhere, chances are you're going to hear him pulling up. >> but how does a new car compare to the shelby original? i don't know, can you outrun your grandfather? ford has just come out with the most radical gt since the first one. but how does it compare? let's find out. >> jay leno is back with a brand new cnbc series on america's

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the triple choice sale ends soon at sleep train. ♪ sleep train ♪ your ticket to a better night's sleep ♪ we still have a lot to come this hour from renovations to road tests, jay leno is here with a look at his new series on cnbc. i love you so much. sleep tight, my love. >> mom, stop being so insecure. >> i'm not. i'm just telling you how i feel. >> yeah, so we say it back. >> just go to bed. >> okay, god. do you love me?

>> mom! >> does that sound familiar, mika? >> maybe just a little bit. the creator and writer and co-star emily mort mor and standing by. well that's why i dug this out for you. it's your grandpappy's hammer and he would have wanted you to have it. it meant a lot to him... yes, ge makes powerful machines. but i'll be writing the code that will allow those machines to share information with each other. i'll be changing the way the world works. (interrupting) you can't pick it up, can you? go ahead. he can't lift the hammer. it's okay though! you're going to change the world.

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i think i pulled a hammy on that last one. i don't think i can continue. here a "the tonight show," the monologue has to go on. i think i'm going to have to sub out. can someone tag in? >> thank you very much. the election is getting nasty. you see this ralph nader called hillary clinton a corporatist. isn't that unbelievable? ralph nader is still alive? >> that was jay leno making a surprise appearance on "the tonight show" last night. he joins us right now. >> good to see you guys. >> how fun was that? >> it was great fun. i love jimmy. it's fun to do that every now and then. keep my hand in. >> let them know you're around.

>> how often do you get out and work? >> about 210. >> that's who you are. ri remember seeing you at the university of alabama back in the early '80s i think. >> it was very nice for you to come in and talk to us. they said crayons. but you just look and that really -- tv is awesome. but that is who you are. >> i was a stand up lucky enough to get a tv show. while i was doing "the tonight show," i was still on the road a few days a week. because tv, you never know how long the job is going to last. when you have something, your transmission may not always work. >> don't we know it. >> i get it. >> how long is it going to last? >> you feel like you're living by the day. >> i like your mustang. that was very nice. >> that is a perfect segue into

your new series "jay leno's garage." you love old cars. >> old cars, new cars, anything that explodes and makes noise. we want to do a show that was different than the other car shows where they just e throw tools at each other and fix up a car in a week and sell it. it's more about the history and the stories and people's love affair with cars. there's a lot of personal stories and celebrities that have connections with cars. >> go ahead and then i'll show a clip. >> show the clip because the series starts tonight. >> let's take a look at a scene from the new show. >> to view this rare creation, we're headed to gm's top secret design studio. >> hello? >> jay, you found us. >> yeah, it's a hard place to find. >> i'm so excited about this car. nobody has ever seen it. >> it's going to be a lot of fun.

>> wow, you're being pretty dramatic. you have the black curtain and the whole thing. >> it's a big deal. >> it is a big deal. can we pull the cover off? >> i want to see it. >> that was a car built in the early 'o 70s. gm built a car with a ferrari engine in it. because of that, gm would never let the car be shown. so we got to drive it and take it on the road. it was interesting. a lot of things like that, a lot of things people haven't seen before. >> i like it. >> so you're going to do this in different parts of the country with different cars, obviously? >> we have shot all eight shows and we're going to start another series pretty soon. we go all over the country. wherever the cars are. went to detroit, and a few other places. >> it's amazing how america has always been so car centric. you have a '66 mustang. i have a 1949 ford that i don't

want but still have it. >> and only two payments left. >> you have 100 cars. how do you handle your car payments? >> it's not easy, but that's why i have to do shows like this. >> when i drive that mustang, i get stopped every 5 seconds. >> a blond in a mustang. >> never saw that coming. >> never would have guessed that. >> my dad had that car. >> what are they looking at? do they really like mustangs that much? >> i'm saying people come up to me and say my dad drove me around in that. >> which leads into the connection with america and cars with our memories, with our past. talk about why america has a love affair with cars the way we do. >> the car was sort of the iphone of the day. now you can go places virtually. and that's sort of the

difference. i remember the worst day of my life i was 15 and we lived 7 miles from uptown. i'm riding uptown to where everybody hangs out and my friend who was 6 months older than me just got his license. he drives by in a convertible with a girl. i'm on my bike. i'll see you guys up there and he roars up. like an hour later i pull in exhausted and sweating. everybody has left already. i said this is the worst day of my life because my friends are driving now and i'm on my bicycle. it was like a nightmare. >> so 100 cars. >> 140, but who is counting. >> an obvious question. most treasured of those cars. if you had to get rid of 139, what's the one you would keep? >> i'm not sure. i have antique steam cars. it's the history of transportation. if you like a subject, you keep wanting to go back further and further and came before that and came before that. and that's when i was a kid i liked muscle cars and things like that.

what came before that? so i have cars dating back to just about the turn of the century. >> do you have any pickup trucks? >> i have a couple. >> i have a '93 ford. >> very nice. >> the kids don't know what this is. >> a buddy of mine brought his two 7-year-olds and they spent all day rolling the windows up and down. >> what was your first car? >> a '34 ford i got when i was 14. and my dad and i bought it and dragged it back to the house. my job was to get it running by the time i got my driver's license two years later. so i kind of learned on that car. >> do you ever look at the campaign season this year and just thank the comedy gods that you have material every night? >> you get the government you deserve. yeah, i think it's hilarious. it's very funny to watch. i'm enjoying the whole spectacle

of it. my favorite guy now is a guy i talked about last night is martin o'mal lee. he's 2% in the polls. he's been in the race for months and only tied with low fat milk. i'm enjoying ted cruz. he feels benjamin netanyahu is not pro israel enough. that would be right. >> what about donald trump? >> donald, when do you think he's going to drop out? you know he's going to drop out. >> january. >> yeah, probably. the as soon as he drops in the polls he's gone. >> january 2025. >> jay has come here just to provoke you, joe. >> i can't be provoked. it's funny -- >> who do you like?

>> jeb was governor when i was in florida. and so i see this remarkable transformation of a guy who actually had a lot of democrats, independents and republicans voting for him go on the national stage and just sort of evaporate. there's a long way to go. >> you just stand off to the side and watch each other tear each other apart. the mainstream one is like car designs. somebody does wild and somebody does boring and the one in the middle has more. i still think he has the best chance. the guy i like is a guy from ohio. he seems like a normal, decent guy. i don't agree with this, but that's the law, okay, fine. you have to follow the law. >> you can't pick the amendments you don't like. >> everybody loved the supreme court for the second amendment. wait a minute, five lawyers, what's this all about?

it gets a little silly. >> "jay leno's garage" premiers tonight on cnbc. >> thanks for having me. >> thank you for coming by. >> still ahead, sports and beer. two of the biggest players in fantasy sports. merger talks are brewing for the makers of bud and miller. business before the bell, next on "morning joe." some cash back cards love to overcomplicate things. like limiting where you earn bonus cash back.

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it's time for business before the bell. . sports and beer, the big headlines this it morning. >> this report is going to be the commercial break of any given sporting event ever. beer, sports and cars is my final things. first off budweiser making an offer to buy sabmill er. miller rejecting that bid this it morning. it would be the fifth biggest deal of all time. the attorney general opening an investigation into these daily fantasy sports sites. there's some data fantasy gate. there's a leak of some sort of data. one employee playing for the other one winning $350,000. it's got everybody up in arms now. there was a headline a moment ago that fan dual has banned employees from playing games on

any given site. this is developing and my cars is a question to you. i would love to ask jay leno. what car would represent every candidate? i was thinking in the break like would trump be a hummer like loud, brash. would martin o'mal lee be the volt? >> trump not the hummer. >> it was the camry. >> it's a good question. >> someone at my event asked me if i was a tree, what kind of tree would i be? i said a wheeping willow. >> there's a story behind that. up next, hbo's domination continues. we're talking to emily mortimer next. did you know that good nutrition

is critical for brain health? brain food, hmmm. ensure has b vitamins that help support brain health - now that's smart nutrition. ensure's complete balanced nutrition has 26 vitamins and minerals and 9 grams of protein. ensure. take life in. (patrick 2) pretty great.ke to be the boss of you? (patrick 1) how about a 10% raise? (patrick 2) how about 20? (patrick 1) how about done? (patrick 2) that's the kind of control i like... ...and that's what they give me at national car rental. i can choose any car in the aisle i want- without having to ask anyone. who better to be the boss of you... (patrick 1)than me. i mean, you...us. (vo) go national. go like a pro. the citi double cash® card.

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qualifying customers may receive $750 toward a new audi q5 san fwhile this parking loting lies still. life, proposition d and mission rock will create a new neighborhood right here with 40% affordable housing, 8 acres of parks and open space,

all connected to public transit, and generate $25 million a year in revenue for san francisco. vote yes on d to turn this into this. ♪ you're going to talk first. you look very pretty, by the way. >> i was just thinking about you. your skin looking really clear. we'll say how we came up with the idea. then why we think it works. >> you're looking very french again. your hair looks so shiny. my hair looks like straw. it looks like i have sewn feathers into it. >> i put vinegar in it. >> is that a new york thing? so much to learn. >> your hair looks cool. it looks like you just had sex. >> come on, we've still got it.

>> that was the scene from the hit original series, emily mortim mortimer. great to have you on the show. >> i'm so happy to be here. >> are these slightly fictional liezed? >> no, thermosiy are massively fictional. >> so set this up for people that haven't seen it. >> there's been two seasons. the overarching theme is friendship, but the first was about the what happens when you make your best friend your personal assistant and the answer is everything goes horribly wrong. the second season it's the sub title is as equals. we decide to put a play on together, write a play and get it put on in new york as equals. >> that's harvey.

>> that's harvey. >> the cameos are incredible. >> kissing dolly in a toilet. >> that's awesome. >> i bet it was. how fun. do you have fun? >> it really is fun. it's a sort of family affair. my husband, who is also an actor, produced the show. he's in the show. dolly's husband is in the show. both of our mothers are in the show. all of our children are in the show. my dog is even in the show. >> is it your children telling you to stop being insecure? >> that is true to life. that's one part that's not made up. >> tell me about it. as they get older, it gets worse. >> i'm always them needy questions. do you ever ask which they love most? >> i haven't gone there yet. >> you or their father? >> i think i know.

>> prior to this series, you had a fairly substantial role in "newsroom." what, if anything, did you learn about the news business, the real news business? >> that you can say. >> i learned not to blow too much smoke up all of your behinds, but i really feel that -- i learned that it's a vocational job. especially as an executive producer on a show like this, you don't necessarily get rich and famous, but you're doing it because you care and you're compu computed by the opportunity to inform the electorate of what's going on in the country. i met these men and women like you guys who are doing that job, and i was just filled with nothing butted admiration for t. >> is this all scripted or some improvisation?

>> there's a little bit of improvisation going on here. it's less scripted than "the newsroom." it's easier saying lines that you have written than others. i would walk from my trailer to the set terrified to move my head in case words fell out of my ears on the way. because it was really an exercise in cramming. >>. what's the difference between news here and in britain? >> people on the television news in britain never give their opinion about anything. that's just sort of a forbidden thing. it seems like it's the other way around here. the news people on the tv tell us what they think about everything, what is always so shocking to me. i'm like, gosh, they are not allowed to do that. >> "doll and em" airs on sundays

on hbo. emily, thank you so much. what did we learn today? [ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. ♪ [ birds squawking ] my mom makes airplane engines that can talk. [ birds squawking ] ♪ my mom makes hospitals you can hold in your hand. ♪ my mom can print amazing things right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] my mom makes trains that are friends with trees. [ train whistle blows ] ♪ my mom works at ge. ♪

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ask your doctor about it by name. oh yeah, we were there last nugt. >> did you guys have fun? >> we had a great time. >> joe. >> i'm walter. talking about last night. >> i had so much fun at the main line school night.

my mom and i talked about her sculptures and her career and our rocky relationship. it was great. >> they loved her. >> they loved her. thank you for having us. >> you guys are living large on weeknights. >> staying out late. >> two of the three best teams in baseball is pirates and cubs. >> who wins? >> cubs. >> wow. >> go cubs. i learned there's still a lot of trump deniers out there. you got science deniers and now trump deniers. >> he's peaked. >> msnbc live is up next. have a great day, everybody. bye. good morning, we begin with breaki