weak speaker if he takes the job. >> we're going to keep a close eye on what paul ryan is thinking, as well as the rest of the republican caucus. lynn sweet, thank you. >> thank you. >> and thank you for watching "msnbc live." i'm richard wolffe. "hardball with chris matthews" starts right now. the fall of the house of bush. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews. up in new york, there's something in the political air this october 20th, it's in the attitude of people. something distrusting and uneasy. you feel it again in the breeze that just struck across our northern border, by the way. canada our close neighbor and strongest trading partner, has just dumped the conservative party after its decade in power. dumped it good. so yes, there is something happening in our neighborhood, something radical and exciting. i was in montreal the last time

we saw an earthquake like this across the border. it was 1968. the very same year everything was coming apart here in the u.s. the same year the campuses of this country exploded over the vietnam war. the gene mccarthy dumped lyndon johnson from the american presidency, that martin luther king and bobby kennedy were killed. at the same time, the story was speaking eliot trudeau up into power next north. and yesterday, a similar call for change brought his son, justin, to head the government. what's happening here in the united states is, as usual, more dramatic. the grand old party is dumping its establishment. all the king's horses and all the king's men can't seem to put it back together again. scott walker was sent back to wisconsin. jeb bush, to put it gently, is getting the heave-ho. 40% of republicans now say they can't even imagine voting for jeb bush. 59% say they can imagine voting for the man leading the assault on the old order, donald trump. meanwhile, republicans elected

since 2010 to rule the u.s. house are unable to pick a leader. at this very hour house republicans are meeting desperately to see if they can find someone, somewhere, to be speaker of the house. well, the conservative washingt"washington examiner" a yesterday whether the republicans are still a political party. great question. "disaffected conservatives helped topple house speaker john boehner last month and then denied house majority leader kevin mccarthy the votes to succeed him this month. now the premature tea party obituaries also predate donald trump's stubborn dominance in polls of republican presidential primary voters, running consciously as an anti-establishment political neophyite." rudy giuliani is the former mayor of new york. you live with gay roommates, not that you were gay by any means, but the whole thing about you is cosmopolitan, big city. i was just up at the old rockefeller estate this week and

i was thinking, as a visitor up there, as a tourist, and i kept thinking, what happened to the republican party that had room for bill scranton, for the governor of pennsylvania, for nelson rockefeller, for john lindsay? now tea party seems to be coming literally apart, where all the establishment candidates are getting, you know, nothing. bush is down to eight, and half the party is saying, i can't even imagine voting for bush. what happened to the grand old party? >> well, i think what happened is this tremendous disaffection with government, this feeling that government can accomplish nothing they see the president as a weak president who can't get anything done. they see the congress, even though it's republican, as not having fulfilled the promises that were made to them when they elected republican majority in the house and in the senate. so, what you've got are a bunch

of disaffected people. and donald trump has figured out a way to appeal to them. even though he says some things that i don't agree with, that sometimes get people a little offended, but they find in him someone who they believe is talking to them in a straight way. and number two is ben carson. he's not far behind. he's a point or two points behind. similarly, he is talking about something very different than the old republican party talked about. so there is definitely a c change going on. >> let's talk about trump. you said something a couple weeks ago i didn't like very much. i think you know what you meant, we were raised waving flags. we were trying to assimilate. i remember marching up on that avenue in front of the grade school, waving flags.

we were so trying hard to be really good americans. we rooted for bishop sheen, looked at joe mccarthy and thought he went too far, but liked his point of view, we were very anti-communist, and gut sense, patriotic, and i think you felt obama was too cool for school. that apart, tell me about trump and his way of appealing to that nationalistic gut. i think he has found a way to do it that is very effective with white working class guys out there. what is that thing he's gotten to, besides the racist crap around birtherism and stuff i think is terrible. >> what he's got is first of all, a very, very, very strong intellect. do not underestimate him. don't make the same mistake that people made about ronald reagan, that they always underestimated him. this is a man who graduated from the morton school of business. >> he's told us that, mr. mayor. >> i know, this is an extraordinarily -- >> he tells us that every three days. >> this is an extraordinarily

intelligent buy, who can adapt, who can move with what's going on, who gets a sense of what the people are thinking. that's a very dangerous candidate. meaning, that's a candidate who can find a way, somehow to win. a little bit of bill clinton, a little bit of ronald reagan. i don't say he's going to be the candidate, but i don't count it out. he could be, he could be the candidate. and he could have figured out where, at least the republicans are right now, and i think he'll probably work on where the independents are. >> first of all, would you vote for him over your new york's own hillary clinton? >> absolutely. >> let me ask you about the hispanic who have taken a whipping from this guy. we know, everybody knows hispanic workers. they bumped into them at the lunchroom, bumped into them at work, you see them everywhere. they all work hard. all the time you see anybody who's hispanic in this country, they're working hard. that's one thing.

they're always working. and the idea of treating them like a bunch of hustlers and rapists, how does he get around that with that community? >> i think he gets around it but talking to them about how he's going to improve their lives. >> even after humiliating them? >> even after having said something that i don't agree with. as i said, when i first said that, i thought he said it in the reverse order. most of the people coming in are good people, people seeking jobs. they were not my crime problem in new york. my crime problem were the people who lived here in new york, not the people who came here to new york from other places. some of them are bad. some of them fit the category that donald is talking about. but certainly not the vast majority of them. and i think the way he gets around that is, he starts talking about, kind of puts that aside and he starts talking about how he's going to find jobs for them, as he has done in his businesses, how he is going to improve their lives, how he

is going to bring back the american ladder of success. which is opportunity rather than dependency. and being republicans, we think what obama has done is extend dependency. that he's made america more independent. >> you really think so? >> i do. >> okay. let me ask you about this sanctuary city thing. the republicans in the senate down there trying to get rid of something i know you believe in, which is sanctuary city, where you don't go around pestering people who are here illegally. what do you think of that? do you think they should have sanctuary cities? >> it depends on how -- it's all in the definition. it depends on how you define sanctuary city. if you are not turning over drug dealers, killers, murderers and people who are doing bad things, you have a sanctuary city that is wrong, illegal, and terrible. if, on the other hand, you're allowing people who are working hard and you allow them to put their children in school, all you're doing is making sure the 50,000 children aren't on the

streets with nothing to do. if you're giving them medical services, you're catching criminals that you wouldn't otherwise catch. so if you define a sanctuary city as the way i just described it, well, then, it's a sanctuary city. but if you're holding back people who are criminals, then you're making a terrible mistake. those people should be turned over. and they should be thrown out of the country. >> rudy giuliani, a vote tonight for, well, donald trump over hillary, if it comes to nap thank you, sir, for making your position clear. and by the way, i've learned a lot tonight. thank you so much. there are, former mayor of new york, rudy giuliani. there are a slew of new national poll numbers on the race for president. all show the same things. donald trump continues to dominate the republican field. and ben carson also surging. the new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll has trump at 25 now, carson close behind at 22. according to the latest cnn opinion research poll, trump is at 27, carson not far behind at

22 again. in the new monmouth university poll, trump tops the field again, higher still at 28%. carson comes in a weaker second there at 18. jeb bush, incidentally, comes in sixth place in that poll with only, i don't believe this, 1 in 20 votes, 5%. amanda siegel and david corn, thank you both of you. first, amanda. i just listened to a man who's a classic moderate republican, pro-choice, big city, pro-gay rights, everything. the kind of guy that can probably get elected president of the republican party or nominated for president in the last 10 or 20 years and probably not for 20 or 30 years from now, in the end of the future. but who seems to see and offers up a reason what i people in the republican party would go for a guy like trump. maybe because he suspects he's just every bit as cosmopolitan as rudy giuliani is under the surface. that's my hunch. he seems to be making the case there's some gut reason why people are so disaffected with government and their established

political party that they are really ready to go for trump. i see it in the numbers here. david, we all see it, they're ready to go. the seduction is working. your thoughts? >> trump is incredibly attractive to a part of the republican party that is disaffected by what's going on. they see a lot of promises, a lot of them are incredibly frustrated by the bush administration, whether it was what he did on immigration, the bank bailouts, his foreign policy. and those are types of people who are looking for someone not associated with washington. that's why you have ben carson and donald trump surging. but right now, i mean, the divide i see is in the republican party are people who want to govern and actually believe in government and governing, and the people who don't. and trump and carson fall into the latter group. >> and cruz. cruz is also part of that. >> and cruz also. absolutely. >> so david, it seems to me that it sounds like amanda said, there's a part of the republican party that likes these outsiders. i would call it the main chunk of the party right now. >> but i don't want to put too

fine a gloss on this, as rudy giuliani just did. he made it seem like they're disappointed, they wanted more, now they're turning to somebody who, you know, gives a little oomph to that. these people like the fact that giuliani -- excuse me, that donald trump is bashing latinos. they like the fact that he's a birther, and that's a racist thing you and i have talked about in the past. >> do you think that's it? >> i think that's part of it. >> i agree. it is part of it. >> it's not just that they're disappointed that government is not working. there are other people they can turn to. >> it's an emotional reaction. >> i'm trying to get why the bulk of the republican party, which i don't think is racist, seems to be seducable. they seem to be saying, yeah, i can see voting for this guy. let's take a look at these two numbers now. trump, can you picture yourself voting for trump? now, 59% say, yes, and 51% said they imagine voting for bush. he's in a stronger position than mr. establishment. how do you reconcile that with your notions about racism and

ethnic prejudices against hispanics? >> it's not just that, it's frustration, and toii think to e degree, hatred. they've ginned up the tea party base, they've talked about obama being the other, not an american. >> how about hating boehner? >> they've gotten so worked up that they hate anybody who's not out there throwing bombs. because if you believe that obama is a secret muslim socialist dictator who wants to ruin america, you have to take any means necessary. so boehner and mccarthy look like milk toast to the gop base now. >> get in here with your same thoughts. what is making them despise their own establishment? and bush, how can you dislike bush? he doesn't seem to have the stuff to hate. how do you hate a jeb? jeb is unhatable. if they hate him, they hate anything. >> but he is so associated with his brother. he is out there the past couple of weeks, all he's been doing is defending his brother's legacy. and there are plenty of people in the country, including republicans, who are sick of george w. bush. but -- >> big mistake for him to talk

about -- >> -- aren't talking about who will be the best president. they're looking for somebody who speaks for them, and right now that's donald trump and ben carson. >> it wasn't spattmart to say, beloved brother kept us safe? >> a lot of republicans agree -- >> they agree, he kept us safe. how can you agree with that? >> there are polls that show that the vast majority of republicans think that bush kept us safe, despite 9/11, the war in iraq, the war in afghanistan, hurricane katrina, and everything else. there are people who still like bush. but plenty of republicans don't and certainly a lot of independents and general election voters don't. >> it's not what you want to be talking about if you're jeb bush. let me give donald trump some credit here, and i don't get to do too often on this show, chris. but he says it's ridiculous for bush, either bush, to say that george w. did things right about 9/11, he is right. it's one of the biggest sins of the bush administration is that he did not see. in fact, he, wolfowitz, and all the others dismissed the al qaeda threat, because they were

fixated on, what, saddam hussein. >> i know. osama bin laden to strike within the united states, handed it right to him. thank you, amanda. thank you, david corn. it took a republican outsider to say the emperor has no clothes. i love it. coming up, democrats are waiting for word from joe biden if he's in or he's out for 2016. say it ain't so or say it is so. biden's decision is expected. well, let's not overdue this. it could be any day now. plus, we'll preview the dangers awaiting hillary clinton when she testifies thursday before the benghazi committee. what have they got aiming at her? what howitzer are they going to turn on her? do the republicans have an ambush ready? you've got to believe they're up to something. and donald trump has been on top of the republican field for three months now. trump's staying power has been a nightmare come true. looks like the trump seduction is working. people can imagine voting for him, but can't imagine voting for bush. and let me finish with this

great movie about true american patriotism from a great man, steven spielberg. this is "hardball," the place for politics. t the latest updats direct from ford engineering. 'cause ford dealers get that intel first. treads, what do you got? lookin' a little bald, sir. with all due respect. got the perfect fit- ready to roll. wheels up, flaps down, let's fly. ford parts. ford tools. ford techs. when your ford needs service, there's one elite team. these are the specialists. at ford. want bladder leak underwear that try always discreet underwear and move, groove, wiggle, giggle, swerve, curve. lift, shift, ride, glide, hit your stride. only always discreet underwear has soft dual leak guard barriers to help stop leaks where they happen most and a discreet fit that hugs your curves, you barely feel it. always discreet underwear so bladder leaks can feel like no big deal. because hey, pee happens. get your free pair and valuable coupons at always discreet.com

welcome back to "hardball." this hour, the house republican conference is meeting behind closed doors, awaiting word from congressman paul ryan about whether he'll run for speaker of the house. let's go live to capitol hill, where nbc's kelly o'donnell has the latest. kelly? >> reporter: good evening, chris. this is an opportunity for paul ryan to try to play hard to get, talking with members of his republican conference to see if they would welcome him as speaker without too many strings attached. in covering ryan over the years, i have asked him if he ever had an ambition to be speaker and he has always said, no, that was not the job he wanted. but many believe that with the departure of john boehner, with the kevin mccarthy short-term candidacy falling apart, that paul ryan might be the only person in the republican conference who could bring together the establishment and maybe quiet that group of three dozen or so most conservative

members, known as the freedom caucus, formerly the tea party group. and so what we're hearing tonight is that ryan has been talking to members who want to sort of feel him out and get a sense of what he would be willing or not willing to do as speaker, but ryan doesn't want to be pushed in this job. he wants to be drafted. and what we're -- the indication we're getting is that he is open to it, but it's not a done deal. we're also told not to expect a decision tonight, but this meeting behind closed doors is an important part of the process, to see if ryan and his republican colleagues could live with each other if they become the next speaker. chris? >> i think our mother's advice was, don't make yourself too available. i think he's following that. nbc's kelly o'donnell with the latest. thank you, kelly. "hardball" back after this. (patrick 1) what's it like to be the boss of you? (patrick 2) pretty great. (patrick 1) how about a 10% raise? (patrick 2) how about 20?

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during this primary. >> welcome back to "hardball," that was hillary clinton's surrogate, james carville, earlier today. just a sample of the collective -- you can hear the exasperation, he's working for hillary, rooting for her -- surrounding joe biden's indecision. yesterday we told his decision was imminent, like within 48 hours, now we're not sure when the heck that's going to happen. according to the delaware news journal, the newspaper in wilmington, beau biden's widow recently told byden she would support his campaign 100%. but just 30% of democrats want to see biden run. 38% prefer he would not run. either, it's say it ain't so, joe, or say it is so, joe. harold schaitberger is president of the international association of firefighters. he recently spoke with joe biden and his union has held off endorsing hillary clinton. howard dean, the former vermont governor, dnc chair and presidential candidate, he has endorsed hillary clinton. let me go to mr. schaitberger.

thanks for coming on the show. you're in the news, because your union has held off making an endorsement of hillary clinton. and you're also in the news because you're on close speaking terms with joe biden. what do you know that we don't know, if anything? >> i don't know if i know something you don't know. but what i do know is that the vice president is going through his process very deliberately, very carefully, he's doing his due diligence, he's checking the boxes. he's doing everything that a candidate needs to do to make that final decision on wether or not you're going to put yourself before the american people and run for president of the united states. and he's focused on whether he can raise the funds, has the infrastructure, and focused on the constituency group. so i think he's doing exactly what he needs to do, and by the way, chris, all this reporting of these artificial deadlines, i think, has been driven by outside forces. my strong view and understanding has been that he's going through

this process and whether it was a debate and then it was imminent and then it was 48 hours and then it's the hearings and then it's the j.j. dinner, he's going through a very serious deliberate process to get to that final decision. >> governor dean, is that true, that the people around hillary clinton are pushing this guy to make a decision, hoping he'll say no, if he's forced to make it fast? >> i don't really think so. i'm pretty sure that the hillary folks would rather he not run. i actually, i'm sorry to say, because i think joe biden is a good guy, think he helps hillary. i think he helps hillary, because i think she's going to win, and the stronger of the field she beats, the better credibility he has going into the general election. >> let me get back to both of you. i want to start with harold and come back to you. here's what i think biden is thinking. and i know the guy, just like everybody knows him. he's a great, easy guy to talk to him on the street corner. you bump into him and he chats and talks about everything. i think he must think he has a street corner appeal that hillary doesn't.

she's ivy league, abit aloof, very well educated. he went to regular schools like syracuse and delaware. he's a guy who you don't ever feel is intellectually or culturally somehow your superior. he feels like he can talk to the white and black guy on the street corner, because i know he does that very well. do you think he's got a unique street corner appeal, that the elitist democratic party -- not you, governor, but the elitist democratic party may have gotten too smart alecky for? >> i can tell you for over 40 years, that's exactly what he's been able to do. he's able to connect with real people, real workers, the middle class, the blue-collar. i mean, he's able and understands the importance of a labor movement and willingly to say openly. but for many years, the word "union," joe is able to connect with people. i know, with the members of the international association of firefighters, he connects with our members. and he connects with them emotionally. he connects with them on policy.

and i, by the way, chris, i just have to remind my good friend, you know, governor dean, when he said that he was glad to see him get in the race, because he thought hillary would win, but i remember in 2004, there was another candidate that it was thought was going to win and be the presumptive nominee, but then along came this guy named john kerry and a few of us and sometimes things don't work out as it appears to be early in the contest. >> i thought howard dean was going to be the nominee so, hah! i've been wrong before too. >> unfortunately, so did i. >> i was saying that in a cryptic way. i do remember -- >> let me ask you that. do you think hillary clinton -- go to that thing, governor dean. you've been elected to office, is there a working class black and white crowd of regular people out there that didn't go to superior schools who just feel like that they're not really talked to anymore the way the regular guy will talk to them on the corner? you don't buy that? >> not according to the polls. here's the problem. joe is a good die.

everybody loves joe biden. he's at 15% in the polls. i think that's his ceiling. here's the other problem -- >> he's not running. >> yeah, exactly. that's exactly the point. and when you do run, it gets a lot rougher. so here's my -- here's what i think. there are a large number of people in the democratic party who will walk through walls for hillary clinton. there are a large number of people in the democratic party who will walk through walls for bernie sanders. there are a lot of people in the democratic party who really like joe biden, but not a lot of people will walk through walls for him. and that's a problem in a primary. >> passion. you say the passion's not there. >> i would take issue with that, howard. i mean, i have seen and i know that over the years that workers would walk through walls for joe biden. he has a long, long track record in supporting and delivering for workers. i know for the members of our union, firefighters and paramedics, he's been there every step of the way, every

day, on every issue, and helping to protect jobs and bring jobs laid off during the great recession. and helping to provide the security for our country, understanding, you know, what homeland security really means. so i know the members of the iaff, when we are prepared to make our decision, if and when he announces, we'll walk through a wall for him. >> so you would endorse the vice president if we were to run for the nomination? >> i'll say this. our union is preparing now, as if the vice president is going to announce his candidacy. >> so you're ready to endorse? >> we're ready to move. >> okay, thank you so much, harold schaitberger of a great union of firefighters, and howard dean, who was a little bit surprised by what he just heard, i think. coming up, two days out from hillary clinton's benghazi team, do the committee republicans have an be ambush plan? i think they must. the "hardball" roundtable weighs in next. this is "hardball," the place for politics. ..

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i've already testified about benghazi. i testified to the best of my ability before the senate and the house. i don't know that i have very much to add. i will do my best to answer their questions, but i don't really know what their objective is right now. >> i don't really know what their objective is. well, that's powerful, if it's true. welcome back to "hardball." that was hillary clinton on sunday before her upcoming testimony before the house select committee on benghazi. and amid charges of partisanship, member are preparing for a marathon hearing, which could extend into thursday night, like all day. with their own credibility at stake, the republicans on the committee have to have a strategy. quote, here it is, that's what they say. no cheap shots and stick to the facts, but don't give an inch. that sounds like bluster. after the committee's democrats issued a report just yesterday showing the pentagon has found no new evidence in their investigation so far, it's unclear how republicans plan to pin down secretary clinton.

here's what the committee's chairman, congressman trey gowdy of south carolina said on sunday about the focus of this thursday hearing. >> thursday is about the three tranches of benghazi. what happened before, during, and after. and frankly, in secretary clinton's defense, she's going to have a lot more information about the before than she is the during and the after. >> i don't know what that means. i'm joined right now by the "hardball" roundtable. sabrina siddiqui is political reporter at the garden. we have a heavy group here. let me start with jay. jay, what is it that you know they've got planned for her. some hooked question that nails her. do they have one? >> i mean, i don't know if they have one particular question that nails her, but they do say they have more e-mail evidence about what she might have known going -- about ambassador chris stevens' multiple requests for

more security, going, you know, ahead of the attack on benghazi. that's something she's said repeatedly, in hearings, as she noted in the clip, in hearings that she has, she knew nothing about. it would have gone to the sort of cone in the state department that does embassy security, embassy operations. so the idea that she might have known about this, i don't know if they have a smoking gun, but they basically -- they seem to indicate that they might have some evidence that she might have personally known about these requests for more security in benghazi. >> just to put it in perspective, this is a facility which is a half mile from the cia operation in a part of the country to the west, which is -- or to the east, rather, which is 400 miles away from the capital of tripoli. and they're actually going to say that somebody in the state department, somewhere on the ground level there in tripoli, at the headquarters there, at the capital, asked for more reinforcements of men with weapons to stand guard at their facility over near the cia facility in benghazi.

it's going to be that particular? >> i mean, we'll see how particular it gets. i mean -- >> otherwise, why is it relevant? if it isn't about protecting the lives of chris stevens at that place we're watching burn down now, why are we talking about it? >> but her point to that always comes back to, even if we knew about these requests, even if i personally knew about these requests, it was the republicans who cut the budget and didn't give money to embassy security. therefore, even if i wanted to give more money, it would have been incredibly difficult to do so. >> jean, what do you think they've got? >> well, we know that she did, in fact, get copied on e-mails with -- where the security of this area was, indeed questioned. >> before the fact. >> yes, we know that. they were part of -- those e-mails were part of one of the first batches that went out in late spring, early summer. so we know they know that she did get those e-mails. we also know that the committee

today got a new batch of copies of e-mails from the ambassador. we don't know what's in them. so, they could have even more cases where there were calls for additional secure measures around this. there also was, in the prior e-mail, the very early e-mail cache, a discussion about -- there was a bomb tossed over the wall in the compound in the weeks leading up so there was evidence that there was some, the security issue was becoming worse. and so it seems to me when gowdy talks about the before, that's what they're going to go after. if she knew about it, why didn't she or her department respond? she's been asked this before, she was asked by the senate. and she said there were people who vetted these things and talked about the budget issues as well.

but i think what they're going to try to go at her on it is not the specifics, but as a leadership question. what kind of a leader was she, that the department, if she had set as an objective, top priority, keeping o you are people safe, why didn't the department respond more aggressively to these calls for extra -- >> it sounds like headline would be a republicans on panel score or hit hillary on failed security measures. anyway, let me go to sabrina on that. what do you hear is coming. these were both before. both had to do with failing to preparing against a possible attack. nothing to do with the fact she issued a stand down order. that would be the most horrendous charge, that she actually, positively, made a -- rather, proactively acted in a way that kept those guys there being alive. your thoughts about it? what do you think they're going after? before stuff? >> i think one of the issues that's happened here is they've sort of refocused their

attention on any area where they feel like they can try to ask a legitimate question. so they're focusing on the security question, because, at least, they had some evidence that there were calls for a more enhanced security there, because going into this, the momentum is on hillary clinton's side. based off of kevin mccarthy's comments, acknowledging that they drove down her poll numbers, other house republicans also saying that this was, the investigation has become politically motivated. they're on really shaky ground when it comes to this panel. and they really need to make sure that they at least give off the impression that they have serious questions to ask, and that they're not just trying to score political points, even though now everyone has pretty much acknowledged that this is a large part of what this panel has become. >> it looks like they're trying to score a single in baseball. just get on base with something, rather than arguing the inarguable about whether she issued a stand down order or not. they should be able to prove that if these copies were right, they were sent to her desk and she could are read them and didn't, they could tie her to the failure to act. anyway, the roundtable is

sticking with me. up next, politics is not predictable. is donald trump winning his argument? after months of skepticism and criticism, the billionaire businessman is looking more and more electable in the eyes of republican voters. more and more people on the republican side are saying, they can imagine voting for him for president. and later, the "hardball" roundtable, they'll tell me something i don't know, which is a big part of the show now. you're watching "hardball," the place for politics. i am totally blind. and sometimes i struggle to sleep at night, and stay awake during the day. this is called non-24. learn more by calling 844-824-2424.

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hi there. i'm shannon molare. both russia and the u.s. are carrying out air strikes in syria. israel's military says two palestinians were fatally shot after attacking soldiers in the west bank. secretary of state john kerry heads to europe and the mideast tomorrow. he'll be meeting with leaders on both sides of the conflict. and president obama spoke with

canada's next prime minister and congratulated him on his election victory. justin trudeau defeated stephen harper in yesterday's election. now back to "hardball." welcome back to "hardball." donald trump continues to lead in every major national poll of the gop primary field, despite all those predictions of his inevitable decline. trump has led the field for the last 99 days and he reached his highest level of support in the latest, the latest nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. trump's at 25, ben carson is three points back at 22. it appears trump's seduction is working. back in june, 66% of gop primary voters said they could see themselves supporting him. and only 32% said they could not see. 32 said they could. now those number s have basicaly flipped. almost 60% of gop voters can see themselves supporting the real estate billionaire.

only 36% say they could not. politics may be unpredictable, but the voters are now changing how they view donald trump and his 2016 chances. back now with jay, jean and sabrina. i think something's moving in the ground out there. i think the ground is shifting, the ice is cracking, whatever the metaphor. the republicans establishment, the moderate establishment, rudy giuliani was just on this show saying i could vote for trump over hillary without even thinking. he's no longer unacceptable. in fact, i think they're getting used to him. your thoughts, jay, then jean, then sabrina. >> well, look,ening it's actually less about how long he's been the front-runner than the actual time period where he is the front-runner. so you had, for example, herman cain was the front-runner at the end of 2011. it wasn't until voters kind of got serious and it was like december of 2011, and started paying attention that he didn't -- that his popularity fell. well, that and his scandal. but you just had howard dean on the show. it was all the weight of the iowa caucuses and everyone thought that howard dean was the

front-runner. 90 days. and then all of a sudden he wasn't the front-runner. >> so what's your point? >> i think when voters really start to pay attention -- >> you don't think they're paying attention? have you watched the ratings for these programs, these debates? what do you mean they're not paying attention? everything i talk to is talking about trump. what do you mean, not paying attention? are you an elitist? do you think you live in a bigger or smarter world than the people out there? everywhere i go, they say trump. who's not paying attention? >> pay attention to the entertainment factor. >> oh, they're saying, oh, i want to be entertained. they're not saying who i want for president? the same polling operations have been going on for as long as i've been alive, and don't compare him to god father pizza. how long was he up there, an hour? >> 22 days. >> this guy has been thereupoha up there 100 days. is this "time" magazine's establishment -- what is it in your job description that makes you think you have to fight this guy? >> fight donald trump? >> you have to dismiss him? >> i'm not fighting donald

trump. i'm saying, i think when voters actually go in a voting booth and think, who do i want to be president, it's not going to be the same person who wins -- and they say, hmm, i like donald trump. >> how do you switch from trump to bush? i agree with you in concept, you would elect somebody a little more substantiative than just a flashing guy. you know, one guy you go out, the other guy you marry. i understand all these references, but what makes you think there's someone out there to marry politically? i don't see -- i see bush, what is is he, down at 6? are they just keeping in the refrigerator and they're going to bring him out and say, now it's time to say i'm for bush? i'm going hard at you, because i've never seen a republican party so crushed. jean? back to you. i'll come back to jay with her rebuttal. >> let me bail her out here. he's got -- he hovers 20 to 25% -- >> or 28. >> and he's showing some growth, as you point out, with the people who are willing to take a look at him in a more serious

way. but it's still 75%ish are picking other people. there's a lot of fluidity still in this race. the thing that strikes me -- >> a ben carson is going to be the nominee of the republican party? you think he's more substantiative? >> this is what strikes me about this race -- >> ben carson? >> no, no, no. ben carson's people are very different than trump. so when candidates, when the field is winnowed, and it will, people are going to go different places. so, all of -- you know, trump's supporters aren't the same as ben carson's supporters. so, like i said, there's still going to be a lot of movement in this race. but i go to your point, chris, in that one of the more striking things about this race is that we are -- we have seen before where the republican primary, we see strong personalities, unexpected personalities rise to the top. what we don't see is this implosion of the so-called establishment wing. that's something very rare.

and where that goes is as interesting as anything else. >> you're so smart. you know, jeanne, i think we're all looking at this from a different perspective, but that's the one i'm looking at. the reason i'm big on trump's potential is not because i like him, i like guys like john kasich, but i see john kasich at three. i think jeb's a good guy. i don't think he's a dud. a little slow sometimes, but i don't think he's a dunce. and i look at guys like walker who i thought from the beginning made perfect sense. they have erased him. as they said in racing, they've scratched him. he's gone. and kasich is basically scratched. that's the thing, jeanne, i agree on, the eraseture, really, of the establishment so far. your thoughts? >> well, what i would say is i think what does strike me, if you add up the numbers for donald trump, ben carson, throw in carly fiorina in some of these polls, you're getting to the point where half of the electorate is picking an

anti-establishment candidate. and that's the deficit that will be difficult for jeb bush or marco rubio to make up, because how will they convince those voters they are the candidates they would like to support. and you can't overlook the fact that it's the republican establishment in congress that catered to this base that over the last couple of years, on issues ranging from immigration to the shutdown over obamacare, to women's reproductive rights, really pushed themselves further and further to the right in order to take control of the senate. and now they're in this position where they don't know how to pacify this base of supporters, who are choosing candidates that on a national scale, might not be electable. >> i think after you date somebody, to use an old metaphor, when you date someone for over three months, it does get serious. three months is a very long time, at least for me, it was. the "hardball" roundtable is staying with us. and up next, the roundtable will tell you and me something i don't know and maybe you don't know. this is "hardball," the place for politics.

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- now that's smart nutrition. ensure's complete balanced nutrition has 26 vitamins and minerals and 9 grams of protein. ensure. take life in. we're back with the "hardball" roundtable. we're going to ask the reporters to tell me something i don't know. the latest word from paul ryan, he will decide by the end of the week if 247 members including those on the right all endorse him, he will take the job after he thinks about it at the end of the week. jay, tell me something i don't know be. >> mine is about paul ryan. 4 1/2 years ago when i became my father's caretaker he pulled me aside and told me how he found his father dead when i was 16 and said that it made family the most important thing in his life. when everyone scoffs and says he

uses family as an excuse, i believe him because he's had that personal experience. >> i love you on the show. jean? >> well, mine is about joe biden. i interviewed him in 2009 shortly after he came into the white house. and we talked about the process in which he became vice president. and he's a guy who likes to get the ask, chris. he was asked once by obama, will you be my vice president and by the way, we got to know the answer right now. his answer right away was no. i don't want it. i have to think about it. so they had to go back to him again, ask him again. he deliberated on it and took it. >> wow, doing that again. sabrina. >> one of your favorite subjects, the transpacific partnership. a new poll out today when we talk about the tpp it's often in the con test of the democratic primary. interesting nugget that the american public is increasingly more supportive of this trade pact. there's a 12-point margin of support in favor. it will be interesting when it

comes to the general election weather hillary clinton or another candidate, what kind of position you have to take depending where the public is. >> looks like part of the obama legacy is about to happen. thank you. great panel, great "hardball" roundtable. we'll be right back. they come into this iworld ugly and messy. ideas are frightening because they threaten what is known. they are the natural born enemy of the way things are.

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had great new movie from steven spielberg about the cold war, the dangerous battle of nerves between the united states and russia that lasted from the years just after world war ii through the failure of the

moscow coup in 1991. bridge of spies" is set at the heart of it in the first years of the 1960s about the elaborate spy transfer between east and west between a soviet spy caught in this country and an american u-2 pilot shot down over enemy territory. the real story is about patriotism built as much on our shared values as our shared history and culture. it's about doing the right thing. >> it's all about this man and what he represents. he's a threat to all of us, a traitor. >> the rosenburgs were traitors. >> who were they? >> they gave atomic secrets to the russians. you can't accuse abel of being a traitor. he's not an american. >> listen to yourself. you're defending him already. you're rehearsing it on me. you said you were just thinking about taking it. >> i am thinking about it. everyone person deserves a defense. >> jim, do you know how people will look at us, the family of a man trying to free a traitor.

>> i came away with a deep admiration for director spielberg in the heat of the cold war, we were right because we did right. and that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. >> tonight on "all in." >> how can you say the country was safe? he's just forgetting about one incident and that was a big incident. >> trump expands his argument on whether george w. bush kept america safe. >> they knew an attack was coming. >> while jeb insists the timeline for safety starts after 9/11. >> when we were attacked, my brother created an environment where for 2,600 days we were safe. no one attacked us again. >> now as jeb takes on trump, his brother goes after another 2016 insurgent. >> president george w. bush apparently not a big fan of senator ted cruz. he was overheard saying i just don't like the guy.