a nissan sentra. congratulations, lindsey graham, you had the best day in american politics by far. it's wednesday, october 21st. right now on "first look," congressman paul ryan is jockeying for the perfect position to assume the speakership. while vice president joe biden has given even more hints that he's going to challenge hillary clinton. the american cancer society's new guidelines on breast cancer detection. we'll dissect the concern and confusion. we've got the brand-new consumer reports surveys on the best and worst cars and suvs. so how does yours stack up? "first look" starts right now. good morning, everybody. thanks for joining us today. i'm betty nguyen. we saw them go head-to-head for the title of vice president in 2012. well now this morning, both men can be on their way to major political fights of their own. we'll start with new developments in the fight for house speaker and congressman paul ryan.

tracie poths is in washington for us this morning. he really laid out a set of conditions for this. >> exactly, betty. so turns out, yeah, he wants the job now. but under certain circumstances paul ryan told the republican congress he thought about it, and he thought about the consequences of not stepping up. he says that the party at this point is desperate for leadership. so, here are his conditions. he wants the republican party essentially to no longer be what democrats call the party of no. he says they need to move from being opposition party to a proposition party. coming up with some proposal for change. he wants to update the house rules so that they can be more effective, and not so easily get rid of the speaker of the house. he says that they need to unify now, not after a tough election. he wants to make sure that he is a unity candidate before he gets in to this. and he doesn't want to give up too much family time. so paul ryan, agreeing to run for house speaker, albeit reluctantly.

>> this is not a job i've ever wanted, i've ever sought. i'm in the job i've always wanted here in the congress. i came to the conclusion that this is a very dire moment. not just for congress, not just for the republican party, but for our country. and i think our country is in desperate need of leadership. >> and ryan has one less competitor to worry about. jason chaffetz of utah, who was running for house speaker, has now dropped out saying that he will support ryan. so betty, the next step is to find out when these elections will move forward. >> absolutely. okay. we'll be watching. now to the race for president where joe biden isn't exactly stomping out rumors of a 2016 run. in fact, a new change of tone may be tipping his hand. nbc's kristen welker has our report. >> reporter: at an event honoring former vice president walter mondale, the current vice president sounded a lot like a presidential candidate. casting himself as the standard-bearer of the obama legacy. >> president obama and i have

ideologically have had no disagreement. none. i mean, zero. >> reporter: to illustrate the point, biden said he and the president were in lock step when it came to authorizing the raid against osama bin laden. >> i told him my opinion, that i thought he should go, but follow his own instincts. >> reporter: but that account differs from biden's description to nbc news during an interview taped for the 2012 special "the situation room." when biden said he'd urged the president to get more information. >> i think there's time to do it before you move. >> reporter: biden also took a veiled swipe at democratic presidential front-runner hillary clinton for what she said at last week's debate when asked which enemies she's most proud of. >> probably the republicans. >> i still have a lot of republican friends. i don't think my chief enemy is the republican party. >> reporter: but biden, whose initial support came from democrats concerned about clinton's weaknesses, will face an increasingly uphill battle. clinton has been gaining

strength and now a plurality of democrats, 38% to 30% say they don't want biden to get in. longtime clinton supporter james carville said he will support whomever the democrats nominate. but was blunt about biden. >> just make up your mind. if you want to do it for god sakes you certainly deserve to take a shot here. breaking news overnight. in new york city, a police officer has been killed in a shoot-out in east harlem. police had been called to the area for reports of shots fired. 33-year-old officer randolph holder caught up with the suspect and was shot in the head. police commissioner bill bratton and new york city mayor bill de blasio both praised officer holder at a press conference. >> when the call comes, he ran to a danger. it was the last time he will respond to that call. >> our hearts are heavy. we offer our thoughts and our prayers to his family. >> officer holder is the fourth police officer killed in new york in the last 11 months.

all right, so here's something that you should never do, even if you've seen it done in the movies, back in august 58-year-old mark raymar was late for his flight. so he saw the plane pulling down the ramp to leave and he forced open the airport's emergency exit and then chased after that plane. authorities say raymar was on his way to a high school reunion in ohio. well he pleaded guilty to criminal tampering. he was sentenced to two years' probation and 100 hours of community service. but he has quite a story for the next reunion. don't you think? all right now to a major shift from the american cancer society for breast cancer screening. it contradicts what some other groups recommend, and it could cause a lot of confusion among doctors and patients. we get more now from nbc's anne thompson. >> reporter: in this season of pink, the american cancer society moves the mammogram starting line. instead of age 40, it recommends women start at 45, if they are of average risk, without genetic

mutations or a family history of breast cancer. at 55, women should transition to screenings every other year, if they have a life expectancy of 10 years or longer. the american cancer society says the changes are designed to eliminate false positives and overtreatment. >> by 45, the benefits clearly outweigh the drawbacks and all women should participate in screening. >> reporter: it is also no longer recommending clinical breast exams at any age. >> the life-saving potential of early detection really is found in regular mammography. that's the test that can find a cancer before anybody can feel it. >> reporter: yet within the health community, there's disagreement on when to start. a federal task force says it should be age 50. the american college of obstetricians and gynecologists is sticking with 40. one more obstacle for marysol mon's mobile mammography unit to navigate as it treats uninsured women in new york city. >> so you were with us last year? >> reporter: is this just going

to add to the confusion? >> oh, without a doubt. our women are generally low income, low information consumers. so, yes, this will be a very difficult thing for them to put their head around. >> reporter: as women and their doctors struggle with when to get screened, there may be comfort in this, federal law requires most insurers to cover mammograms from age 40 on, to protect them from the second deadliest form of cancer. anne thompson, nbc news, new york. seven minutes past the hour. time now for some sports action. the leaders in the fall classic, they are just one game each from the world series. first now to the royals. the visiting team struck early and often against the hometown blue jays. in the end, k.c. beat toronto 14-2. a do or die game five is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. eastern today. wrigley field, the new york mets are on the verge of sweeping the cubs and heading back to the world series for the first time since 2000. red hot daniel murphy tied a major league record hitting five home runs in five consecutive

postseason games. the mets could clinch tonight. game time is 8:00 p.m. well, it's consumer reports' most anticipated and respected annual auto survey. tom costello now with how today's cars and suvs stack up, including some surprises. >> reporter: the list is compiled from 740,000 consumer reports subscribers, detailing how reliable their existing cars are. but new technology on the dash board and in the transmissions is proving to be a hang-up for several big named automakers. >> technology is moving very, very quickly. it's moving much faster than the car manufacturers can keep up. when they're building these cars, sometimes the life cycle of the car is seven years. well, if you have a smartphone that's seven years old, the thing is basically garbage. >> reporter: starting with the most reliable cars, toyota lexus are on top, followed by audi, mazda, subaru, korea's kia and the only american in the top ten, buick. kia even surpassed perennial powerhouses honda and acura. among the least reliable

vehicles on the consumer reports list, lincoln, ford, acura, gmc and chevrolet. >> at fiat chrysler automobiles the struggles continue. it produced five of the worst seven brands. with ram, jeep, and fiat the bottom three among our subscribers. >> reporter: transmission issues the biggest complaint. >> but here's the interesting point. jeep rated as the second worst brand when it comes to reliability. and yet, because of the styling, because of the marketing, and because of the look of the jeep models that are being sold right now, sales have never been stronger. >> reporter: the stunner, tesla. the car consumer reports called the best car it ever tested, gets a worst than average reliablety score. tesla says its technology allows it to fix software bugs in its cars remotely. fiat, ford, gm and acura all tell nbc news they're listening to the customers and working to improve. tom costello, nbc news, washington. >> there were a lot of surprises in that report. all right, an in-depth look at what awaits hillary clinton when she goes face-to-face with

congressman trey gowdy at the benghazi hearings. that's next. (vo) at the friskies playhouse, the cats and us are always busy.

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welcome back to "first look." let's talk severe weather. this time we're going in to western texas. quarter sized hail brought down leaves, branches and even left little small dings and dents in some vehicles. in arizona, heavy rain, flash flooding, trapped this woman in her suv. firefighters did rescue her safely. now, also, in arizona, this is a funnel cloud. if it had touched down to the ground it would have been considered a tornado. thankfully, it did not. but, for arizona standards, that was pretty severe. pretty extreme. heavy rain this morning. this is the theme over the next couple of days. we're moving the storm system from arizona through new mexico today and all of the state of texas going to get soaked. about a three-day soaking rain. first thing, though, is severe weather threat. this is the only life threatening weather we should be dealing with today in the country. about 2.5 million people at risk of damaging winds, and also the possibility of more large hail. only isolated threat of a tornado or two. we also could see some flash

flooding. the area is in a drought. this shows you this dark red shading, texas and louisiana have gotten in a drought. they actually could use the rainfall. over the next three days we're actually expecting as much as four inches of rain in areas like dallas, san antonio, three inches. so this is beneficial rain heading for texas, betty. while the rest of us in the nation enjoy beautiful, warm fall weather. >> they do need some rain and a little bit of a cooldown there. so i'm sure there aren't too many comments. thank you. tomorrower, former secretary of state and democratic presidential candidate hillary clinton is set to testify before the house benghazi committee. and every word she utters will be under heavy scrutiny in a way that no white house hopeful has had to face in modern times or perhaps ever. but the spotlight will also be on the committee's chairman. this will be a make or break moment for congressman trey gowdy as his committee has gone through its share of troubles in the past several weeks. msnbc's kasie hunt has more on the man at the center of it all. >> reporter: many washington insiders knew hillary clinton used private e-mails. but it was the south carolina

congressman who made it public. >> we discovered former secretary clinton relied exclusively on private e-mail accounts to send and receive e-mails. >> reporter: trey gowdy's aggressive investigation into the attacks in benghazi have rattled the presidential campaign that once seemed unshakable. >> i take responsibility. i should have had two accounts. one for personal. and one for work related. at the end of the day, i am sorry that this has been confusing to people, and has raised a lot of questions. >> reporter: gowdy was a federal prosecutor who knocked out an incumbent in a nasty primary. the year the tea party swept the house of representatives. >> what do you mean by their bailouts? because you voted for the wall street bailout, not once, but twice. >> reporter: it's that background that's earned him trust with the right wing in the house. there have been calls for him to run for speaker. and even john boehner reportedly urged him to run for majority leader. but gowdy has refused.

those close to him say he doesn't want to stay in congress for very long. and that might be especially true after the last few weeks. gowdy's been forced on defense. after majority leader kevin mccarthy said the benghazi committee was political. >> everybody thought hillary clinton was unbeatable, right? but we put together a benghazi special committee. a select committee. what are her numbers today? her numbers are dropping. >> reporter: that helped knock mccarthy out of the race for speaker. now, with clinton set to testify on thursday, gowdy is begging his own party, keep your mouth shut. >> i have told my own republican colleagues, and friends, shut up talking about things that you don't know anything about. and unless you're on the committee, you have no idea what we've done, why we've done it, and what new facts we have found. >> that was msnbc's kasie hunt reporting. hillary clinton will be rachel maddow's guest this friday night at 9:00 eastern right here on msnbc. coming up, richard nixon's

big prediction, trump cancels on jimmy, and a political party crasher? "scrambled politics" is next. it takes a lot of work... to run this business. but i really love it. i'm on the move all day long... and sometimes, i just don't eat the way i should. so i drink boost® to get the nutrition that i'm missing. boost complete nutritional drink has 26 essential vitamins and minerals, including calcium and vitamin d to support strong bones and 10 grams of protein to help maintain muscle. all with a great taste. i don't plan on slowing down any time soon.

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♪ my mom can print amazing things right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] my mom makes trains that are friends with trees. [ train whistle blows ] ♪ my mom works at ge. ♪ 19 minutes after the hour. time now for "scrambled politics." two op-eds of note this morning. first, after a week of back and forth, jeb bush is going after donald trump's foreign policy credentials in the national review. and secretary of defense ash carter is making his plea for a budget certainty in "the wall street journal." did richard nixon predict this week's canadian election?

well at a state dinner back in 1972, the cbc reports the president raised a toast to who he called the future prime minister, then 4-month-old justin trudeau. donald trump canceled an appearance on jimmy kimmel live last night because of a political commitment. but there was a backup plan. >> don't worry, tonight we're going to give everyone in the audience basketball dipped in cologne so you can fully experience what it would have been like had donald trump been here. >> democratic presidential long shot martin o'malley showed off his singing skills yesterday on "the view." ♪ because baby now we got bad blood ♪ ♪ you know it used to be mad blood ♪ ♪ so take a look at what you've done ♪ ♪ because maybe now we got bad blood snnd. >> clearly taylor swift has some competition. after a failed re-run for governor of florida, charlie

frist is back. this time he is running for congress. it's congressman david jolly's soon to be vacated seat. but jolly crashed frist's announcement and let loose. >> i think he's a huskster and a fraud, he makes decisions out of political convenience not political decision. he will tell you absolutely anything you want to know just for the sake of getting elected. i have served with bad members of congress. he would be the absolute worst we've ever seen. and i don't want my community to be represented by somebody who will fail the test of leadership and fail to governor and fail to actually contribute to policies that are right for our community. >> wow. there you have it. rapper flame is giving up running for president. now he's running for speaker of the house. >> when you hear president obama say things like i can only do so much without congress behind me, all of a sudden, my [ bleep ] question mark. who won congress? another question mark. i don't know. but the speaker of the house has super powers and they're third in line for the presidency.

>> senator marco rubio is honoring back to the future day with a themeatic ad attacking hillary clinton and joe biden. and nbc stopped by a focus group and participants were asked to match 2016 candidates with cartoon characters. so, here are some of the interesting answers, donald trump, as ritchie rich. senator marco rubio, as linus from peanuts. and hillary clinton, as cruella de vil, the villain from 101 dalmatians. that's your morning dish of "scrambled politics." 22 minutes past the hour, joining me now, jonathan allen, chief political correspondent for vox, which has a partnership with nbc universal. good morning, jonathan. >> good morning. i'm going to try to avoid being a cartoon character. >> me, too. clearly it's a tough one. speaking of hillary clinton, she's gearing up for her testimony tomorrow on benghazi. but, new nbc news/"wall street journal" polls show 44% of not satisfied with her response to the attack.

while 27% are satisfied. is this more proof this investigation could really hurt her recent bump in the polls following the democratic debate? >> well, it's interesting that she's running for president and none of the members of that committee are. so she has a lot more to lose than they do. i think people aren't necessarily satisfied with her answer. i think 44% that could just be entirely the republican side of things, but, i think even if they're not satisfied by her response, it doesn't necessarily mean she's not going to win the presidency over the democratic nomination. so i just think she has a lot to lose in these hearings. >> oh, absolutely. let's take another look at that poll and what it found. it shows 46% believe the house benghazi committee is unfair and too partisan, while 29% believe it's fair. and 35%, this is interesting, just simply don't know enough. could clinton's testimony put this issue to rest? is that even possible? or is she in a no-win situation on this issue? >> i don't think she's going to put it to rest in these

varyings. but i do think that there's a possibility that republicans will overplay their hand. we saw kevin mccarthy, the majority leader do that, earlier this year when he said that her sagging poll numbers were related to the benghazi investigation, since then we had a new york republican congressman who said that the committee was designed to go after her. and i think there's a real moment here for republicans where they basically have to prove that this investigation that's been going on for 18 months was a worthwhile endeavor for taxpayer money. at the same time hillary clinton's going to have to show that she has not acted inappropriately. >> and just to make a correction here, that poll showed 36% believe the house benghazi committee is unfair and too partisan. and i want to switch to paul ryan. he says he's run for speaker with conditions. is this a gutsy move or simply shows the disarray with the gop? >> i think it's the move paul ryan had to make. somebody who's going to take over as speaker is going to have to try to break the back of the hard-liners. >> all right, jonathan, as always, we appreciate your

input. thanks for joining us today. >> take care. >> you, too. just ahead, it is back to the future day. we'll show you how to make it the best day ever. that is next. take the zantac it challenge! pill works fast? zantac works in as little as 30 minutes. nexium can take 24 hours. when heartburn strikes, take zantac for faster relief than nexium or your money back. take the zantac it challenge. what's happening here... is not normal, it's extraordinary.

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now to entertainment news. >> doc, you better back up. we don't have enough road to get up to 88. >> roads? where we're going, we don't need roads. >> back to the future day is finally here. but we still need roads. october 21st, 2015 is what marty mcfly and doc brown set the time circuits on the flux capacitor as the destination to back to the future part two.

the trilogy will be thrown in theaters nationwide. a few brands are commemorating the day with special products. even ride sharing lyft is offering free rides in deloreans today. catch one if you can. i'm betty nguyen. "way too early" starts right now. >> i came to the conclusion that this is a very dire moment, not just for congress, not just for the republican party, but for our country. my greatest worry, my greatest worry is the consequence of not stepping up. of some day having my own kids ask me, when the stakes were so high, why didn't you do all you could do? why didn't you -- >> speaker repair. a reluctant congressman paul ryan finally agrees to run for house speaker, but only on his terms. more on ryan's demands, and his deadline. and vice president joe biden takes a not so veiled swipe at hillary clinton. but is he changing history about the raid to kill osama bin laden?

and breaking overnight, syrian president bashar al assad makes an unannounced trip to moscow. his first face-to-face meeting with vladimir putin since joining forces almost three weeks ago. it's 5:30 on the east coast, 2:30 out west, and this is "way too early." good morning. it's wednesday, october 21st. i'm jonathan capehart in washington. paul ryan says he's willing to step up to fill the void being left by john boehner. in a meeting last night with a house republican conference congressman ryan laid out the terms on which he would be willing to serve as speaker. ryan, who initially said he was not interested in the job, told his republican colleagues that he's willing to serve, but only if the caucus unites behind him by friday. late last night ryan said the