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that's one way of putting it. good morning. it's wednesday, october 21st. we have msnbc political analyst and professor harold ford jr. good morning. and in washington columnist for bloomberg view al hunt. joe, paul laid it on the line. >> he really did. he really did. not quiet the same requirements as brad, ned in fight club. he did lay it on the line.

you'll see how the response is. you have push backs against the idea of placing the crown on paul ryan's head. we'll see what happens. it's a big challenge ahead. i got to tell you the poles out of new hampshire were the big news politically that race is firming up. >> that's where we'll start. today marks a milestone in trump's presidential campaign. trump has led for a full 100 days now and his support in the early voting states has been largely similar. we have brand new pole numbers of the primary. the bloomberg politics finds trump in the lead at 24% with ben carson seven points back at 17%. jeb bush in third and senator

marco rubio in fourth. this while another new pole of the same primary shows trump pulling away his gain 10 points since august to 28% while carson is up 12 points to 16%. fiorina is in third at 10% holding steady despite a dip in national poling while jeb bush has fallen to single digits moving from second place in august to fourth place now, joe. >> yeah, a lot of things to get into here mika. we have to begin with the obvious. mark and donald trump has risen back up. alex who was on the show yesterday talked about the fact he seemed to have plateau for a bit and back up again. donald trump is stronger than will showing his strongest ever. the poles that really matter and you talk about it all the time,

these early states. how are you doing in iowa? how are you doing in new hampshire? i look at trump's numbers and i will say i look at jeb bush in third place instead of fifth place, that actually matters. >> they need to find a place where he's strong. he needs to stay strong in these state and national poles. there are quarters of panic where they're saying maybe rubio, kasich, another solution. they want to stop donald trump. >> you talk about marco. again, it's the point you make all the time i brought up on the show yesterday. marco is showing in the national pole but the question that all the smart republican money asks, that all the smart insiders ask is what state does marco win.

he's in fifth, sixth, seventh. >> what state does john kasich win? the establishment is a lot of quarters are in a panic saying who can we bet on to stop trump and this pole is significant because it shows right now if you are betting on somebody just because of a super pack money and his brand and experience, a lot of people in the establishment are still saying we got to find somebody. jeb is still our safest place. >> right. al hunt, you look at, i've got to talk about the headline early this fall with al hunt. the headline is that donald trump is a dominant figure in a way that few has been as dominate throughout every pole over the past 100 days and he only seems to be stronger. are you hearing what mark and i

are hearing finally behind the scenes, oh my god, this guy could win? >> yeah, you are, as we discussed last week. i make two other points. we talk about trump. carson keeps coming on. carson's numbers are more impressive than trump's. he's got a 74-14 favre rablt rating where as trump and bush both have a 39% negative among republicans in new hampshire. i think that bush's third place in that pole is a bit of a mirage. his negative numbers are high. they spent $4 million over the last month. the negative numbers have stayed as high and he's the second choice of almost no one. i think trump and carson are dominating that contest right now. let's not forget about carson. >> i tell you what, i will take first and second every time, mika. trump's numbers are pretty darn extraordinary. >> yeah, they are.

let's go to the democratic side. more new poling showing a bump for hillary clinton. a washington post abc news pole has hillary clinton in front of bernie sanders by 13 points. this comes a day after nbc news wall street journal shows an a dent dent cal 13 point span and it comes as a pole out of new hampshire shows clinton now ahead of sanders 38-34. but the new bloomberg politics pole of the state has sanders ahead of clinton 41-36. hillary clinton has a healthy lead. a lot of talk about biden and how that could impact her, joe. >> yeah, we've been talking about trend lines on this show because they're what matters every day. every month from june to july her numbers going down. august to september, she's in

the low 40s, high 30s in some approval ratings. what a dramatic turn. the washington post abc news pole, plus 12. the wall street news journal pole, plus seven. again, you take bernie's dip and hillary's rise, a 13 point swing in both of the poles. that's good news for hillary clinton and her campaign team. looks like the debate did the trick. >> if you look at the numbers, hillary clinton was up nationally and joe biden not pulling the kind of numbers he would like to pull. he's going to have to pull the trigger at some point soon. he talked yesterday making references to hillary clinton where he said i don't think republicans are my enemies. he's trolling putting the idea out there. i think he knows and he's going to have to decide relatively soon here. >> harold ford, we've jumped

harold ford on hillary clinton and her pole numbers. let's talk about just how positive this news is. again, when you can have one debate and a 13-point swing, that's great news. >> i think it reaffirmed for many people is substance, comp tans and reasons the democratic party in several years and going back to 2012 and they remember mike's great pal making her number two and replacing joe biden when there's softness in president obama's numbers. i think her debate performance again reinforced with us again across the democratic establishment she has what many of us are looking for. some believe president obama has an office and she demonstrated.

>> okay. we've got some other politics, a lot of other politics to get to. senator marco rubio gets to the floor for the first time in three weeks and he said this. >> all we're saying is if you work at the v.a. and you aren't doing your job, they get to fire you. i think people are shocked that that isn't existing in the entire government since there's no other job in the country. where if you don't do your job you don't get fired. in this instance we're eliminating it to one agency. if you're not doing your job, you should be fired. >> so joe, there are just some who might have found a little irony in the statements since rubio has what the washington post calls the worst voting record in the senate this year. >> meaning he hasn't showed up.

>> no, no, no. there's a no show situation going on here. an nbc news analysis found he has missed 44% of floor votes since he announced his candidacy in april. a report earlier this month found a report came before he was a candidate. rubio was even one of only three senators to miss a vote on a lifetime judicial appointment yesterday morning. three hours before he arrived on the floor to say government employees should be fired for not doing their jobs, mike barnical, is the shark you hear in my voice a little over the top or is this guy unaware. >> it's a proposition he's been on the road. you're going to stand on the floor and castigate others for not doing their jobs when you

haven't been doing what is your job. one quick thing back to the trump poles, joe, if you go up to new hampshire and i know you're going up there several times and been up there, the southern rim of new hampshire, a large part of it, our expatriots have moved up there from massachusetts and if you take a look at the composition of trump's votes, they're largely exdemocrats from massachusetts, a lot of them, not all of them and they're not going anywhere. they're going to stick with trump right down the road. they're going to stick with trump. >> what i'm finding too, i'm curious if you're finding the same thing. i'm actually finding, i was talking to a top banker in new york city who again, i'm shocked that this cuts across all demographic boundaries, all idea logical boundaries who told me i have voted conservative, i have

gone with the establishment my whole life. he's 60 years old and he swore, he said blank blanket, i'm voting for trump. i'm voting for trump. there is, i must say i'm blown away by the people that come up to me whether it's in new hampshire or even in manhattan across the country that are using donald trump as a vehicle for a generation of anger and angst. these are educated people with advanced degrees. you start to try to talk about issues with them and it goes back to you don't know what they're doing in washington. >> there's no doubt trump is based nationally as well as the other states. more working class and blue collar. there's no doubt he had substantial support among well educated wealthy people.

again, to go back to what al said. carson is now the alternative to trump for a lot of voters. again, across demographic groups particularly in iowa where he's doing better than trump is now overall monamongst the evangelicals. jump's support is not confined to one single group. to see, the interesting thing is where is the establishment vote. to be short, trump is getting some of it. it's basically missing. there's not one candidate showing strength. bush's numbers aren't inflated because of the advertiser but where is the advertisement? can it, will it consolidate? >> and the money is not consolidat consolidated. there's a lot of money on the sidelines because they still don't know who can win. i want to say this going back to al hunt what you said, talking about ben carson and i've been saying this for the past couple

of days, i'm really, if this campaign continues to go in the direction it's been going in, you got to look at ben carson as a possibility of showing strongly in iowa, very strongly, possibly winning iowa and then you go to new hampshire and that looks like it's where trump can do very well. you got to look at these early states as you know better than anybody, al, and not just look at the national poles and right now, you are right. ben carson in a place like iowa is looking very strong. >> yeah, he is, joe. to take that new hampshire pole that came out, our new hampshire pole, he said some things i consider absurd. like the notsies wouldn't have been as successful if the germans had guns. we asked the people in new hampshire about it. that's a moderate conservative elector. 4-1 it didn't bother them. he has a manner that enables

them to say what some of us would consider outrageous and it doesn't seem to have an effect. >> let's move on to paul ryan who says he's willing to step up for the speaker job. the void being left by john boehner. there's a few catches here with the house republican conference. congressman ryan laid out the terms on which he'll be willing to serve as speaker. ryan said he's not interested in the job and told his republican colleagues he's willing to serve. but only if the caucus united behind him by friday and he has a few other requests. >> first, we need to move from an opposition party to being a proposition party. we need to update house rules and make sure we do not experience constant leadership challenges and crisis. third, we as a conference should unify now and not after a

devices speaker election. last point is personal. i cannot and will not give up my family time. i may not be on the road as often as previous speakers but i've pledged to try and make up for it with more time communicating our vision, our message. what i told members is if you can agree to these requests and if i can truly be a unifying figure then i will gladly serve. >> wow. i thought that on a personal note, that comment about his family time was wonderful. i hope more follow suit on that. many members welcomed ryan's offer including some entertaining bids for speaker. congressman immediately withdrew his bid and pledged to support but not congressman danielle webster webster in florida. this while they labeled ryan

king paul while highlighting an endorsement that may not help him among his republican colleagues. >> paul ryan who i hope gets to be the next speaker very reasonably said last week quote if the united states missed a bond payment it would shake the confidence of the world economy. he appears to me to be one of those people who are reasonable. look at some of the other people. i'm a paul ryan fan, i don't agree with him on much of what he does. >> i don't blame him. one of the things he's quoted saying i'm willing to take arrows in the chest but not in the back. he wants everybody behind him. i think that makes a lot of sense. >> well, perhaps. i'm a big paul ryan fan and i think paul should run. i hope he does run. i'm very interested though in the stage craft of all this as somebody that was involved in a

few leadership fights and a few fights to run speakers out of town. i don't know that i would have done it quiet that way. i think you do it quietly and behind the scenes and you don't have danielle webster and others talk about how he's been anoted king. maybe that's the only way paul ryan wanted to do it. luke has been up all night following this. obviously, there is some push back from the freedom caucus. is he going to get what he wants? >> right now, joe, i think it's difficult to say a definitive yes. the reason being it was really put off how paul ryan walked into the room and said this is what i'm going to do. get on board or get out. they viewed that similar to what they dealt with in the past with boehner in terms of leadership

and this idea it's going to be an approach instead of a bottom up. i think it's not a resounding yes to say where we stand now paul ryan will be the speaker come friday. the reason is that this conference is greatly changed and when ryan says specifically that he wants to take away the motion to vacate and procedural tool to use john boehner to propose a speaker, that is something that does not sit well with a lot of them that i spoke to last night. it will be interesting to see how it plays out. look at the conservization with the media. it shows him as a figure and immigration reform. i think ryan will have an uphill battle not to be campaigned very hard because ryan never really wanted this job. he said look, if you're going to draft me, this is who i am, take me for who i am and i want 235

votes on the house floor so i'm not trading like john boehner has had to do the last two years. >> willy, it's interesting what luke just said. one of the big complaints from the freedom caucus was not the ideology but the fact john boehner would decide what he was going to do. on their way to the meeting reporters would tell them what their next strategy was going to be. very surprised how this was handled last night where he lists his demands in the public instead of going to the freedom caucus one by one by one by one. i don't understand it. it's a strange way to start a speakership with a group of people that have not liked the top down approach like he showed last night. >> in fact, you had members of the freedom caucus saying based on the way paul ryan presented

this, this does not sound like a guy who wants the job. he's got a moment of leverage. do you sense paul ryan actually wants the job? >> it's a good question. i think he's been somebody. >> what would you say to your son when he asks you years in advance why you turned down the job? he was doing this for god, his country. all that being said, what ryan is doing is leveraging the incredible desire for him to be speaker by essentially crafting the job in the way he sees it best suited to him. i think that's difficult for some people to take. because the entire push has been to weaken the speakership and the committee process and while ryan has said he is for changing

the conference rules to do that, i know not everyone listening will understand it, it's very important not only for the freedom caucus guys and the conservatives that felt they have left them behind. i think ryan is trying to make this so much in his favor it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world saying thanks, no thanks. >> and if he's going to do this, he may as well have the power he needs. >> if he doesn't do it, he has the outs. if he feels a guilt, he can say i told you what i needed to do. if they choose not to take him. >> it's still on him. still ahead, we have steve, congressman cole and california governor and actress molly ringwalk. plus a one on one meeting with putin in moscow. this as the u.s. strikes a deal

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this is 27 past the hour. tomorrow hillary clinton is scheduled to testify on benghazi. ahead of that we're looking at new pole numbers and according to a new nbc news wall street journal pole, 44% of americans say they are unsatisfied with clinton's response to the attack. 27% say they are satisfied. at the same time new pole numbers show that 36% of americans think that current congressional investigation into the benghazi attack the unfair and too partisan. 29% believe it's fair and impartial. another 33% say they don't know enough about the investigation.

more people are unsatisfied with clinton's response to the attack. 44% think the investigation is unfair or too partisan. i'm surprised about that, joe. it's sort of like a disconnect. i guess with the people i talked to and the rest of the country. >> i'm just not surprised at all. it's been an article of faith in the main stream media since this happened that this is some right wing republican crazy conspiracy theory. we had joe on yesterday, a man i respect very much saying ambassadors are killed all the time. no, this hasn't happened since 1979. this has been an article of faith with liberals and article of faith with the main stream media if you say the word benghazi, everybody's going to

roll their eyes. something happened there, something serious happened there. you have the white house, susan rice, the secretary of state talking past each other and nobody knows exactly what happened. i was critical of mitt romney holding a press conference. i said that's not the thing to do. don't po lit size his death. that said, you look at these numbers and when you ask americans whose handled benghazi well, hillary is minus 17. this republican investigation is minus seven. more importantly, a third of americans say they don't know enough. actually this hearing at the end of this week not only matters

but it matters a lot. >> obviously, the remarks by kefb mccarthy and other members set this back to a guy like tray who has bent over backwards and try to prosecute this in a fairway. even behind the scenes to some clinton people, tray has been among the best to try and do this the best way. the comments he's made confirms everyone is on the democratic side. obviously, there's serious questions. joe is talking again about the video. an old video six months made prior to the attack. that doesn't hold up. hillary clinton will be up there tomorrow and get a chance to sit across from tray and the committee and answer questions. sk >> it's going to be fascinating,

mika. the only thing i would urge my colleagues in the media to do is hold your fire and stop assuming. you look at these pole numbers, stop assuming this is some right wing witch hunt and see how to american people feel about it. you look at hillary clinton's numbers over the past few months, her trustworthiness and leadership qualities, a lot of those numbers are going down and there's a reason. i think i for one am going to be fascinated to see how tomorrow turns out. >> i think the same advice, hold your fire could be given to members of your own party this could be in a flash. >> they don't do that.

they blow it every time but shooting their mouths up. i stand with tray goudy, republicans shut up. let the investigation go where the investigation goes. >> and you know how difficult it is to run against a female opponent. the must read opinion pages are next here on morning joe.

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be part of the conversation. with all the latest episodes of your favorite reality shows, xfinity on demand let's you catch up and keep up with fall tv. 36 past the hour. vice president joe biden is doing little for the chatter. yesterday biden sounded much like a presidential candidate especially when doubting his role on the foreign policy. >> it really matters. it really matters when people know you are speaking for the president and you have his confidence. like you and foreign policy. if you notice i will get sent to

go speak to putin or whomever and it's because the secretary of state, when i go they know i am speaking for the president. whatever i say, the president is saying. >> and later in that evening biden repeated a line that's been perceived as a critique of hillary clinton's comment during last week's democratic debate when she said she was proud of her public enemy she made in her career. >> it is possible, it is necessary to end this notion. end this notion. it's naive to think we can speak well of the other party. what's naive is to think it's remotely possible to govern this

country unless we can. that is what is naive. the other team is not the enemy if you treat it as the enemy, there is no way we can ever, ever, ever resolve the problems we have to and you end up with a dysfuncti dysfunction that we're experiencing here in washington. >> i was going to provide analysis and say joe biden has to make a decision and stop playing hamlet. i've got to stop first and say what he has to say there. we connect so much with the media. i'm telling you it's a lie. it is a lie from everything i've seen over the past eight, nine, ten years going around all across america. what joe biden said right there, if delivered by a strong candidate could bring this country together. that is an inspiring message and

god bless joe biden for saying i can disagree with a democrat and they're not the enemy, they're just the other side of this debate. that's powerful. i hope he jumps in the race and delivers that message. it will change the 2016 election. that said, joe's got to make up his mind, mike. >> he does. hopefully, his mind will be made up soon probably within the next two or three days we say again. that's just joe being joe. i'm wondering you saying what you said about the other joe, joe, if he said that on the stump throughout the country, where would the freedom caucus go? look at the difficulties paul ryan is having with his own party. >> but, i got to say though, again, this is one more example of i mean, if i were sitting in the freedom caucus, if i had

john boehner telling me what i was going to do before talking to me, it would be less about ideology and top down management structure that doesn't work in the house of representatives unless you get buy in. what paul ryan did last night was he came in, wagged his fingers and said these are my conditions, take them or leave them. paul wasn't on their side on bank bail outs, medicare part d, on a lot of big issues that matter to conservatives like me. that said, if you're going to listen, if you're going to work with me, if you're going to give me buy in. i don't have to agree with you 100% of the time and it's the same thing with what joe biden is saying right there. i may not agree with you 100% of the time but we're on the same team, let's work together. i will say i was deeply offended by what hillary clinton said last week when she said of all the enemies she's made across

the world, she's proudest of the republicans who are now her enemies. first of all, that's a lie. i know hillary clinton, she doesn't think that way. secondly, that is such a sad, sad play to an angry base that i think it demeans not only hillary clinton but the democratic party itself. there are a lot of great democrats out there that want leaders that know how to work with republicans as well and hillary clinton knows better than to talk that way. if she talks like joe biden, she might be shocked and get a lot more democrats supporting her. >> you just heard the vice president say though, joe, speaks to something you know and harold knows because you both served in public office. al hunt knows this and mark knows this. what's been missing in washington clearly if you speak to members of the house and senate from both parties is the

personal touch. but that's joe biden's strongest suit. how are you doing? good to see you. >> and harold, let me talk to harold. a great example. we were both in the education committee. harold was a freshman. republicans had a bill they wanted to push through. harold came over. they were two of the youngest people. harold ford, tennessee, how are you doing? i've got an amendment to this bill. can we talk about it? >> yeah, can we talk? sounds great to me. republican leadership was angry at me. that's how it works. i went to you several times too. when i was relocating families in predominately minority part of my district that were at this time sitting on top of a basic

waste dump. we shared information back and forth but it was built on our personal relationship and friendship. i did things that the republicans didn't like. you did things that the democrats did i want like but we had a friendship so we could help our con stitch wants. >> you watch events unfold in washington. i was pleased to hear the vice president. i agree with mrs. clinton. it's more political than anything. we need to get back to that. if joe biden does not run and his whole contribution is what he said yesterday and he continues to promote that approach to governing, he would have made an enormous contribution. >> a lot more still to come. yesterday he said ben carson's analogies matter. this morning he's taking conservatives to task who think that paul ryan isn't conservative enough. he'll also support donald trump. pete joins us live next.

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joining us now from washington, pete waner. gentleman, good morning. i'll start with you, pete. we'll talk in a minute about ben carson and the notsy red rick. i want to talk about a comment you made last night that i heard echo other places. all those people saying paul ryan is not conservative enough to run the house are some of the same people supporting donald trump and you say it's impossible to square that circle. >> it is impossible. the criticism is he's not conservative. we're in a very bizarre world. a lot of the same people are critical of ryan and enchanted with donald trump and donald trump actually is a ryan republican. he's been a democrat for much of the last decade and on a whole

number of issues he's not conservative. i do think what that shows that discoordinate note, what i think is an example of kind of disordered mind, it shows how for some people on the right what matters is not substance, is not philosophy, it's a particular kind of style and they like the kind of style donald trump represents. that's a problem and what trump does and how he speaks is not conservati conservative. i do think the popularity for some on the right underscores the problems the conservatives have right now. >> we're talking about members of the media and talk websites. >> yeah, there's some in the house and media like that. you have prominent voices on the radio with laura inc. gram and others for the grudge report. there's a kind of industry out there that's critical of people

like ryan and the so-called republican establishment. it's an interesting phenomena. >> all right. >> you just mentioned some conservative outlets and personalities and suggested their roll isn't a vision for what you would like to see. brld you put fox news on that spectrum i think their find and their critiques are fair. fox news is a good thing and helped counter balance what has been a liberal tilt in the

media. i want to be fair to them. i don't think they're doing this for money or ratings. they have a genuine difference of opinion. i think a lot of them are wrong. i share the goals of many of those people. i'm a conservative. >> jonathan, why don't you jump in here. i just wonder if, i guess there is some criticism that's to why paul ryan went completely public with his demands and could have had a private conversation. maybe the party isn't there. maybe it needs that in order to cut the fever.

>> tpz are you fluks we-- it wa refreshing to hear one lay down the law. so the two branches of the party come together and say okay, congressman ryan, i'll give you what you want. whose to say the freedom caucus doesn't revolt and end up letting him lead. under these conditions, do you think, one, congressman ryan should take the job and two, do you think that the freedom caucus and other members of the republican conference will actually let paul ryan lead if indeed he does become speaker. >> yeah, i think paul should take the job if he gets with the conditions he laid out. there's a little bit of difference with joe. i think it was good for paul to go forward. it would lead to what he wanted. i think it was better to do that. i think tactically that was smart. i said i'll take it, ask you to do it and these are the

conditions. that puts the pressure on some in the freedom caucus to say yes and no. if they say no, there's a lot of chaos and function that follows. will they let ryan govern? that's the question. i think that's what ryan was trying to anticipate and mi mitigate and contain. he doesn't want to take the leadership if he's going to be crippled from the start. i think john boehner had a lot of problems and it's reasonable for ryan who doesn't want to job. right now the republican house is -- >> joe. >> all right. well, thank you so much, pete for being with us. we'll agree to disagree on this small point but i love reading

you whether it's in the new york times or commentary or back when we just use to shoot e-mails back and forth at each other when you were in the bush white house. it's always great talking to you and seeing you. thank you for coming today. >> thank you. >> thank you both. >> and jonathan, thank you as well. coming up on morning joe, one of paul ryan's closest colleagues. republican congressman tom colt joins the conversation. more morning joe in just a moment.

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coming up at the top of the hour, russia pounds rebels in syria. we'll go live to hear simmons in london. plus new poling shows donald trump isn't going anywhere and party insiders have been heading shoulders above the rest of the field when it comes to power rankings in the party. steve is here to break down the new numbers. morning joe is back in a moment.

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bloomberg politics finds trump in the lead at 24% with ben carson seven points back at 17%. jeb bush in third and senator marco rubio in fourth. trump they say is the best to handle putin. 41% trump is the most authentic candidate. this while another new pole of the same primary shows trump pulling away. he has gained 10 points.

carson is up 12 points to 16%. he's fallen from single digits moving to second place in august to fourth place now. joe, trump dominates. >> he really does. all these compare sons with cane, bokman, rick perry from four years ago, are absolutely propostrous. none of those candidates, few candidates in -- look at his massive lead in south carolina, his massive leads in the deep south. his big double digit lead in new hampshire. his big leads in ohio. pennsylvania and iowa, it's hard

to imagine they would be crowned. >> i think one of things that's interesting in the analysis is this could act between what's going on in washington right now with the speakership battle and the presidential race and the inability of i think a lot of -- to connect the two. when you look at donald trump his message is driving the numbers. his message says make america great again. voters believe barack obama has wrecked the country. trump is the antidote to this. every appearance he conveys strength. you saw that play out sunday on

fox news. interestingly, chris wallace, the only one that wouldn't let trump do the interviews concedes to trump doing the interview at the trump national golf course, not on the set. he conveys an image for sunday televisi television. his physical presence and pictures conveys strength and that is what's driving the ballot in the republican primary contest. >> joe. >> it really is. i couldn't agree with steve more there.

we look at ben carson doing fairly well also in new hampshire. you have jeb bush in third place. now, do you agree those numbers are artificially drifb ven by advertising? >> he's had the airways to himself. carson doesn't show strength in the way trump does. carson in his own way is showing strength to his voters and it's going to be up to a one of the other candidates. you got 12 other candidates, 14 other candidates, are any of them going to find a way to show

their brand of strength. >> you look at those number, look at jeb, i'm personally, i'm excited about the 10%. actually given where he's been. he's been fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh place. he's been fourth in new hampshire. you look at his numbers and marco's numbers and you realize, it's got to be a political death match. one of them survives and the other doesn't or else they both die politically. >> it's got to be on issues for rubio and bush. look at the poles who ask whose best on the economy and whose best on putin. what has jeb or marco done to show they're the most presidential, strongest on issue? rubio has talked about foreign policy. the poles doesn't show he's taken on trump which for a lot of republicans is a big deal. >> let me open this up to everyone here at the table with

al and washington and steve is absolutely right i think when he says basically, it's a manrriag of the mess englisher and the message with trump. it's huge. you have to see itself play out on the ground to see how powerful it is with the messager and the message. the question is the two leading candidates with the poles and republican party for president of the united states, a donald trump and ben carson. does anyone here on this panel believe that either man will be president of the united states? >> do you think donald trump can win the nomination? >> he cannot be elected president. >> does steve, a man that ran arnold sworts neger's campaign,

do you think he can be president of the united states? >> you look at just the states that's won five out of the last six elections. it goes to 282. you look inside hillary clinton's numbers, the way that one unelectable candidate wins the presidency is by running against another unelectable candidate with regard to the trust and character numbers. and in a two party system, the way that you win the presidency is by being the nominee of one of the two parties. so if you're down to one of the two finalist, anything can happen. is he a probable president? no. can he be the republican nominee? do we live in a time where trust has collapsed in every institution? is he a brilliant communicator? has he shown a mastery of the details of the campaign process and ability to connect. >> to reinvent it. >> most importantly, the ability

to grow. his numbers inside are growing and strengthening over time. that is why you can't discount the possibility if he's the nominee he could be elected president. >> i love the awkward silence. please take the question around the table. go. >> i'm going to answer first and i'll open myself up to ridicule. i'll say it on today october 21st, 2015, i would have never said this two, three, four weeks ago. the answer to your question mike is yes. the reason why there is a pathway for despite the fact that his biggest challenge is he's got very low support among hispanics and going to have to figure out how to shorten that up if he ever gets to a general election is because we've been looking at this for the past two years as an election that's going to be the year of bush and

clinton. republicans are disgusted with the state of their party right now. even if they adore 41 and 43, they want a new republican party. he has feasted on jeb bush and jeb's bush establishment, the ora around him. who does he get in the general election campaign but yet another creature of washington d.c. that has been in washington d.c. for a quarter of a century. steve is right. donald trump's numbers are upside down when you look at his favorables and unfavorables in the general election. when you look at hillary's favorables and unfavorables in the general election, they're about the same. even though the democrats have the electoral advantage and there's a massive democratic

challenge donald trump faces, yes, he could win if his opponent were hillary clinton. if it's joe biden, he can't. if it's elizabeth warren, i don't think he can. can he beat hillary clinton whose upside down in favre rablt in a general election match up? it's possible. >> i'll give you one scenario that's not farfetched and just one that i think answers the question. what if trump won iowa and new hampshire and bernie sanders won iowa and new hampshire and that same week fbi agents leaked that hillary clinton had failed to turn over e-mails that were related to government business? if that happens trump would enter the new year in a pretty strong position to win a general election. >> al hunt, what we're saying is, it's possible. is it probable? no. i don't think anybody would have ever imagined donald trump would have been in first place for a hundred days in the republican

primary. >> i still think it's almost impossible for him to win a general election. some think about okay, how is someone going to govern? an issue ranking from immigration to a deficit to foreign policy. what this guy says is just wrong. i mean, it's not idea logically wrong, it's just operationally wrong. you said earlier, he's got to do something about the latino vote. as a general rule when you tell people you don't like them, they don't vote for you. i don't think he can do anything about the latino vote. >> harold ford, what do you think? >> i agree with you. two or three months ago i didn't think he could be the nominee. if you're the nominee of one of the major parties, you could easily be elected president. you find yourself two points

away. mrs. clinton and others have to take trump far more seriously than we have. i got to tell you, i've watched audiences of americans and latino americans and his message of growth and hope and you can be like me. i don't know anybody saying i want to be poor.

the record more trump recognizes that. >> and the sub text of it, sorry, joe. it's make america great again. being an outsider as it's washington. >> all republicans. >> not make america great anymore. it's a hopeful message while zinging washington. >> you look at the fact wages have been flat for a long time and in real terms been declining since 1973. wages remain flat even though we read the news at the unemployment rate is going down. americans are getting their heads carved off by a rag tag band of terrorists that were called the j.d. team. putin is in russia i could list a hundred things that's shown america leaving behind america

disastrous on the world stage. iran has gone in and along with russia have basically taken over syria, our two biggest enemies. this is a message that is so built for donald trump right no and you add to the fact he is running against a clinton and a bush. >> we're losing control of the narrative. donald trump has a way to not only propose himself but not only the previous administration for the past administration but the one where that and the mistakes he's made.

>> i want to go to steve. the people of minnesota very serious solid group of voters is engaged in educated as any state in america picked jesse ventura as their governor. if we're really going to answer mike's question about the election, talk about what happened in those two races and how you take that to a national level and somebody whose seen as a strong candidate actually draws from voting blocks that don't usually come out and vote. >> the country is in a bad mood. trust has collapsed in so many institutions. go back a year ago. remember the super bowl adds.

all of these consumer marketing firms go and test the populat n population, hey, the country is in a bad mood. every single super bowl commercial is like a symbalta add. each want more down than the last. what trump is doing, similar to the capacity that arnold had, he's selling optimism. his use of superlatives. everything will be fantastic, terrific. we're going to be doing so much winning you're going to get bored with winning. all of this is infectious and optimism for the future is fundamental to a winning campaign in a time when people are down, angry and depressed. we shouldn't miss understand that trump's candidacy is overwhelmingly the most optimistic. >> it is, it's realistically showing. it's realistically optimistic.

>> yeah, new abc news washington post pole. snapshot of where we are now and again if another candidate had these numbers people would say the race is over. carson at 22. then you go to the attributes. strongest leader, trump 47%. best chance to win the nomination or general election, 43%. >> this is about trump. >> best on immigration, trump, 39%. closest to you on the issues, 32%. understands people like you, trump leads in every one of those attributes and best chance of winning a nomination is trump. >> there's also three fundamental departures from republican orthodoxy which were a huge deal in this campaign. >> first was trade. he's against the blue trade deals and speaks to the republican party and connects to a big party of the democratic party when you talk about this

in the connection of a general election. secondly, carried interest. saying this whole system isn't on the level. one set of rules for people on the top. different set of rules for everybody else. i'm going to do is away with that. pete waner, brilliant man. one of my favorite colleagues in the white house talking about ben carson's crazy talk. it is crazy talk. there is no crazy talk that is higher than that's the craziest so far. >> who are those candidates. >> i would add one more to your list even though there's a reporting in the washington post attacking special interest, attacking big money and politics saying no one can own me.

i think that's a big part. we've also crossed over a deal with democrats and independents. >> joe, there's also something going on and i know you've heard this and it is that none of these people maybe with the exception of trump actually have dealt with the psychic blow that occurred to nearly everyone in america. now, not, only 1% of the people in the country have someone serving in two wars, iraq and afghanist afghanistan. 99% of the cup try was effected by what happened in the fall/winter of 2008 and 2009. the psychic trauma of the economy is being felt strongly in every state. >> that's another thing, the collapse of the economy and also, we don't win wars anymore.

you've got to see part two of that and donald trump is a strong leader. we all laugh at that. as tv generals we all laugh at that. you ask a rank and file voter, will donald trump take you to a war where he'll go half way. >> i want to talk quickly, what steve just said touches on what the freedom caucus is so concerned about a guy i love. they're so concerned about paul ryan being speaker of the house. he voted to bail out the banks. paul ryan will never come out and say henl funders shouldn't be paid 14% tax returns while their secretaries pay 28%.

he'll never say i'll be for a free trade deal if it's fair to the american worker first. that is the fault line in republican politics that donald trump gets and that the freedom caucus gets and these guys aren't just coming to washington d.c. saying i'm going to do whatever the held i feel like doing. they came like i came representing a district that's sick and tired of wall street and kay street getting what they want while main street is getting screwed. >> add immigration to your list. >> okay.

al hunt. we could go on. >> and immigration at the top of the list. >> al hunt, thank you for being on this morning. still ahead, congressman tom cole reacts to paul ryan's decision to run for speaker with conditions. plus ronald reagan's last act. we are joined about the final days of one of the america's most talked about presidents and we'll ask him how the clintons treated former first lady nancy reagan. you're watching morning joe. we'll be right back.

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okay, the conversation continues. anything stand out? >> it's amazing. just abc news washington post along with the nbc pole and bloomberg pole are one of my favorites and the strength for trump in this national pole is quiet striking. most likely for the republican nomination, trump, 42%. >> wow. from the presidency to the

speaker. >> how do bush and rubio do on the same numbers real quickly? >> bush and rubio. >> most likely to be the nominee. bush 12%, rubio 5%. >> okay. well, now to a speaker battle. paul ryan is adamant he wants a unified caucus. the washington post quotes him telling colleagues last night i'm willing to take carrows in the chest but not in the back. let's bring in congressman tom cole. what do you make of his -- i love the way one of his five requirements was family time and i hope we get to a time where a woman can step up and say that too without it being an issue. he really wants a lot before friday to make this happen. what do you make of him so publicly making these dpands?

>> i think he's being honest with people about the challenges of the job and what it takes to succeed in the job. it's not that we don't have differences in the caucus, that's fine. we should have vigorous debates about where to go. when we're on the floor we need to act as a team. i think that's basically the the point he was making. but again, you have to think to that position and give everybody a chance to be part of that team and voice their opinion. next week on the floor, will everybody feel comfortable with the decision the conference made and vote for him there? the democrats certainly aren't going to and shouldn't be required to. obviously, they're going to have their own candidate for speaker.

>> one question that's grazed around the table is let's say the republican caucus or conference accepts the conditions before friday and paul becomes speaker, what would stop that group of freedom kau sus members and others from reneging on this one month from now, two months from now and paul being faced with the challenges or concerns he raised and manifest himself? >> i think it's okay to challenge even the city speaker. we always have a mechanism that if 50 members want to call a conference, they can do it. so i think what paul's pointing

out is we have to operate by regular order and regular order means on the floor, on procedural matters you work as a team. >> congressman cole, i have a pretty basic question for you. the freedom caucus, why are they so permanently missed off? >> i think a lot of the country is permanently missed off. >> there's been a lot of times when we haven't operated by regular order. i want my bills to go to the floor. i want every member to have an opportunity to offer their amendment and i want a good up or down vote on them.

>> congressman tom cole, great to have you on the show. thank you very much for being on. joining us now historian and biographer craig shirley. his new book the last act about the final years and emerging legacy of ronald reagan. great to have you on the show, craig. pretty shocking revelations about the relationship with bill and hillary clinton. let's start there. >> well, no doubt, there was a lot of animosity between the clintons and more so on the clinton's part toward the reagans. they didn't have much of a relationship. the week of the reagan funeral bill clinton made a pain in the neck of himself. he kept pestering anybody associated with nancy reagan to speak at the funeral. they had it worked out the

former president would speak at the funeral, former president bush because that have their friendship with ronald reagan. clinton kept calling and pest pestering and had to be told no. also too, as i said before there was a lot of animosity there including in 1996 when clinton was running for president he used footage of the assassination attempt of ronald reagan. that didn't set well with nancy reagan. she called asking for the commercials to be taken off. there was no way nancy reagan was going to allow bill clinton to speak at her husband's funeral. >> you wrote a tremendous column a couple weeks back remembering peter, a friend of both of ours

wh . what lessons would pete have for us at this moment of testing in the republican party? >> he was a dear friend to both of ours who both knew him for many, many years. he was gentle and kind and unethical. i can't imagine anybody more capable of doing a dishonorable thing. we know he's a long time aid, confident and speech writer to donald reagan. i suggest they were two of reagan's favorites because he wrote the speech in detroit in 1980 where reagan accepted the nomination. we talked about a community of shared values and outlined a lot of revolution their thoughts. there's overlap in what we were talking about previously in terms of donald trump and ronald

reagan. they both talk about the future. in fact, i would submit the proper state of the republican party is to be in a perpetual state of revolution. the most successful presidents have been per pech yulely advocating a political revolution. >> rethinking things they already knew about and finding education. talk about the things you had access to to find a life in the period we found before. >> thanks, mark. i had exclusive access to files at the reagan library that weren't made available to anybody else.

what i want to do is correct the historical record. the shorthand is reagan went back to california. he lived for 16 years. a lot of political speeches and campaigning. he was united by king elizabeth. it was a time for him. they weren't going to slow down and didn't until really the last couple of years. you and i e-mail a lot. as a preimminent reagan story,

talk about donald trump. is donald trump winning the republican nomination and obama nation to the party of reagan or is it a natural step forward? >> i think it's a natural step forward, joe. we've talked about this. the republican party as i said earlier, i think it gets in trouble when it becomes part of the status quo. reagan understood this acutely to be anti status establishment and that was his, that was the secret to his success. >> and craig, one other thing too he was constantly reframing the debate. >> we here people talking about ronald reagan in glowing terms. i'm sorry, i remember how ronald reagan was talked about from the mid-70s up until the moment he was elected president.

he was mocked, ridiculed, he was called an idiot. >> things every bit as hard as donald trump is talked about. i'm not comparing ronald reagan to donald trump but at the same time, the same people praising ronald reagan now and saying donald trump is no ronald reagan or some of the same people tearing ronald reagan to sleds before he became ronald reagan. >> exactly. the first rule of the bureaucracy is to defend the bureaucracy. that means anybody whose a threat or challenge must be attacked and destroyed. you're right. ronald reagan from the time of his rise in the 60s up to the last week, the reagan funeral. there were many harsh commentators and columns that

came out of it. some really, really awful things that came out of left wing groups. ted whose a cartoonist was something i can't repeat it was so awful. you're absolutely right. i think again, part of, there's a transfer of a power is the more they attack donald trump, the stronger he becomes. >> the book is last act. craig shirley, thank you very much. good to have you back on the show. coming up, first trip and the civil war broke out in his country. we'll get a live record. we'll be right back.

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breaking overnight, a surpri surprise meting in moscow. the two leaders reportedly discussed russia's growing in syria and willingness to assist in the process. it marked the first trip outside syria since his rule erupted in 2011. simmons joins us live from

london. >> putin says he invites assad. it was a short trip. signaling that long alliance is stronger than ever. >> president assad seated next to putin, the serian leader's visit announced for the first time this morning. assad revealing his secret last night. syria is russia's friend wishing assad a warm welcome contrasted with the tension between president obama and russia's leader last month. the serian people have been practically alone and putting up resistance and fighting these international terrorist. russia's campaign over syria has increased in resent days targeting terrorist extremist

groups. on the ground that's meant striking both isis and rebels supported by the west. anyone opposed to assad. the talks while the u.s. has agreed measures to minimize the actions in the air. cooperation does not mean u.s. support for russia's policy. >> we continue to believe russia's strategy is counter productive and the support will only make syria's civil war worse. >> the reply seems unmistakable. while people will pour over comments from president putin and calls for a division between moscow and washington over whether assad goes. you mention he is now back in damascus. the fact he was prepared to take this trip feels more secure. >> thank you very much. and still ahead, breaking

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democratic candidate gavin, good to have you on board this morning. >> considering the fact in 2013 we had more preschoolers shot and line of duty. we had a 6-year-old shoot a 3-year-old two days ago. it's an extraordinary country we live in that we have accepted this. at the end of the day, the president three weeks ago was right. he said we're a all answerable. we are our behavior. society becomes how we collectively behave. we've got to change our behavior. >> you have an initiative you're pushing forward. how does it work? >> we recognize that the home court for the nra is the legislative process. they have been successful, intimidating politicians of all political stripes. california is no exception. we have had a series of gun safety measures that have been either vetoed by a current governor, previous governor. can't get out of committee so we'll take it directly to the voters. we think the nra is successful.

they've demonstrated that but not as successful through direct democracy. california, as you know well, has initiative process and can take it directly to the voters. >> specifically what will you get on the ballot? >> the big thing is we recognize one big gap on background checks. california has a robust background checks for guns but not for ammunition. the most deadly part of a gun is its ammo. a laundromat or grocery store can sell ammunition in california. we're going to submit ammunition to the same requirements that are required for guns. we'll also require that high-capacity magazines of 11 or more clips, we prohibit them. already prohibited for sale and manufacture, but possession is still afforded even though many states have banned that. california has a number of other gaps on lost and stolen gun requirements, on reporting requirements. we'll close those loopholes.

five provisions. the initiative will be on the november 16 ballot. >> you've brought about some attention from those -- from nra members and some of the gun rights groups. how do you respond to those who say there should be a mental illness component to this? i hope you get all this done. but with those who argue about mental health is that a part to reduce this. >> the background check is a background check or people who are dangerously mentally ill. over a had,000 people have been rejected or denied a gun for those reasons. we extend that to ammunition and i think it's -- it's novel to the extent no other state has done it, but i think it's significant because it's a giant loophole. interestingly, no one has discussed that. so we think it's an example for the rest of the nation. but the more important example is, you know, i can't -- for me, the president said something about being answerable. it was also, we feel like we're

powerf powerless. people throwing up their arms. at the end of the day we're not. jeb bush said this the other day. i mean this. his statement was for me a disqualifier. he said stuff happens. running for the number one leadership job in america. stuff happens. we have the ability to step up and step in. we are not innocent bystanders. we can shift the future. we have to act differently and be more courageous and step up to these guys and call them out. in california, you would think we were leading in every capacity as it relates to gun safety measures. turns out we're not. i think we should. we have a moral obligation. i have three kids. a 6-year-old, 4-year-old and 2-year-old. if i am nervous about sending them to preschool or walking in a mall or going to the theater. i've done this. i'm worried about a guy who came

late to the theater and wonder what he's pulling out of the back pocket. >> i have a child i am raising who is absolutely frightened to go to school, to go to the movies. she has seen and heard too much. it's totally a part of the fabric of her upbringing. lieutenant governor gavin newsom. thank you so much. more "morning joe" in a moment. that make edward jones one of the biggest financial services firms in the country? or is it 13,000 financial advisors who take the time to say thank you? 'night jim. gonna be a while? i am liz got a little writing to do. ♪ it's why edward jones is the big company that doesn't act that way. or building the best houses in town. or becoming the next highly-unlikely dotcom superstar. and us, we'll be right there with you,

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still ahead on "morning joe" a hundred days and counting. that's how long donald trump has dominated the crowded republican

presidential field. and the new numbers out just this morning are much more of the same. plus, paul ryan's goldilocks approach to the job of speaker. he says conditions have to be just right. the big question is whether republicans will meet his demands and his deadline. she dominated democrats in last week's debate. but is hillary clinton ready to take on republicans at tomorrow's highly anticipated hearing on benghazi? there are surprising new numbers on people's take on clinton's response to the attack. "morning joe" will be right back. ♪

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colleagues what i think it will take to have a unified conference and for the next speaker to be successful. >> gentlemen, welcome to fight club. >> first. >> you do not talk about fight club. >> second. >> you do not talk about fight club. >> third. >> someone yells stop. goes limp. taps out. the fight is over. >> and the last point. last point is personal. >> no shirts. no shoes. >> basically, i made a few requests for what i think is necessary. >> if this is your first night at fight club -- >> i asked my colleagues to hear back from them by the end of the week. good morning. it's wednesday, october 21st. >> i like it. >> with us on set msnbc contributor mike barnicle, managing editor of bloomberg politics mike halperin. nbc political analyst and professor at the university of

michigan school of public policy. harold ford jr. paul ryan laid it on the line. >> he did. it will be fascinating to see how the response is. certainly already on conservative outlets you have push-back against the idea of just placing the crown on paul ryan's head and letting him do it the way he wants to do it. we'll see what happens. big challenge ahead. i have to tell you, the polls out of new hampshire yesterday, i thought, were the big news of the day politically. and show that that race is 100 days in, that race is really firming up. >> that's where we'll start this morningment today marks a milestone in donald trump's presidential campaign. trump has led in every major national poll for a full

100 days now, and his support in the early voting states has been largely similar. we have brand-new poll numbers of the pivotal new hampshire primary. it finds trump in the lead at 24% with ben carson 7 points back at 17%. jeb bush in third and senator marco rubio in fourth. this while another new poll, the same primary, shows trump pulling away. he has gained ten points since august to 28% while carson is up 12 points to 16%. fiorina is in third at 10%. holding steady despite a dip in national polling. while jeb bush has fallen to single digits moving from second place in august to fourth place now, joe. >> yeah. a lot of things to get into here, mika. we have to begin with the obvious. mark halperin, donald trump has

risen back up. al alex castellanos talked about the fact that he seemed to plateau and is back up again. showing his strongest showing ever in the nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. the polls that really matter, you talk about it all the time, the early states. how are you doing in iowa, how are you doing in new hampshire. i look at trump's numbers. and i will say, i look at jeb bush in third place instead of fifth place. that actually matters. i am sure the bush people are now looking at new hampshire as possibly the way forward. >> they need to find a place where he is strong. in the short term, in terms of fund-raising and in terms of kind of the scent, the whiff, the feel of the bush campaign. he needs to stay strong in the state and national polls. because there are quarters of panic where they're saying maybe rubio, kasich, some other

solution. make no mistake. the establishment still wants to stop donald trump. >> you talk about marco. it's the point that you make all the time, brought up on the show yesterday. marco starting to show life in the national poll, but the question that all the smart republican money asks, the question that all the smart washington insiders ask is what state does marco win? you look at the new hampshire polls. he is in fifth, sixth, seventh. >> again, the same question is for all the establishment candidates. what state does john kasich win? he is way down in the new hampshire poll. what state could chris christie in? the establishment -- a lot corners in a panic saying who do we bet on to stop trump. while the poll is significant, it shows for jeb that, right now, if you were betting on somebody, just because of the super pac money and his brand and his experience, a lot of people in the establishment are still saying, we've got to find somebody. jeb is still our safest place to stop trump. >> right. >> al hunt, you look at -- i

have to talk about the headline, though, with al hunt. the headline of the poll is that donald trump is a dominant figure in a way that few have been as dominant throughout every poll over the past 100 days, and he only seems to be getting stronger. are you hearing what mark and i are hearing from the republican establishment finally behind the scenes, oh, my, god, this guy could win? >> you are, as we discussed last week, joe. two other points. we talk about trump all the time. let's not forget carson. he keeps coming on. carson's numbers in this poll are really more impressive in many ways than trumps. 74-14 favorability rating. trump and bush both have a 39% negative among republicans in new hampshire. and i think that bush's third place in that poll is a bit of a mirage. his negative numbers are very high. they spent $4 million, the pac

has, over the last month. the negative numbers have stayed as high. he is the second choice of almost no one. so i think trump and carson are just dominating that contest right now. let's not forget about carson. >> i tell you what. i will take first or second every time, mika. trump's numbers are pretty darn extraordinary. >> they really are. to the democratic side. showing a post debate bump for hillary clinton. a poll has clinton in front of bernie sanders by 31 points. that's a 13-point swing since september. this comes a day after our nbc news/"wall street journal" poll showed an identical 13 point swing in clinton's favor over the same span. it comes as a wbur poll out of new hampshire shows clinton ahead of sanders 38-34. but the new bloomberg politics poll has sanders ahead of clinton 41 to 36.

so hillary clinton has a healthy lead. lot of talk about biden and how that could impact her, joe. >> you know, we've been talking about trend lines on this show. those are what really matters at the end of the day in politics. every month from june to july hillary's numbers going down. july to august, they go down. august to september, low 40s. high 30s in some approval ratings. what a dramatic turn. the washington post/abc news poll plus 12. the nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, plus seven. bernie's dip and hillary's rise. 13-point swing in both of the major polls. that's great news for hillary clinton and her campaign team. it looks like the debate did the trick. >> yeah. with these numbers, if you look a month ago hillary clinton was up 7 points on bernie sanders. now up 20 points on bernie sanders. joe biden not pulling the kind of numbers he would like to. he'll have to pull the trigger

at some point soon. he was talking yesterday with walter mondale and making reference to hillary clinton when he said i don't think republicans are my enemies. trolling a little bit, putting the idea out there. i think he knows and i think he'll have to decide relatively soon here. >> harold ford, we jumped harold ford on hillary clinton and her horrible poll numbers over the past several months. let's talk about just how positive this news is. again, when you can have one debate and have a 13-point swing, that's great news. >> i think it reaffirmed for many people that the substance, the competence, the reasons that many people in the democratic party for the last several years and even going back to 2012, joe, you may remember mike's great pal bill daly at one point i believe looked at the possibility of moving mrs. clinton onto the ticket and making her number two and replacing joe biden when there was softness in president obama's numbers three to four

years back. i think her debate performance reinforced for many of us and for that matter many across the democratic establishment that she has what many of us are looking for and, frankly, some of the shortcomings that some democrats believe president obama has in office she demonstrated a strength the other night. that's why many of us believe the more debates the better she'll do. even in vice president biden enters the race, he will be formidable but mrs. clinton demonstrated the other night she is prepared to take on whomever it might be. a lot of other politics to get to. senator marco rubio returned to the senate floor for the first time in over three and a half weeks yesterday. he said this. >> all we're saying in this bill is, if you work at the v.a. and you aren't doing your job, they get to fire you. i think people are shocked that that isn't actually existent in the entire government since there is really no other job in the country where, if you don't do your job you don't get fired. in this instance we're limiting

it to one agency. this should be the rule in the entire government. if you're not doing your job, you should be fired. >> joe. there are some who might have found a little irony in the statement since rubio has what the "washington post" calls the worst voting record in the senate this year. >> meaning he hasn't showed up. >> yes. >> he just hasn't showed up. >> no. there is a no-show situation going on here. an nbc news analysis found that he has missed 44% of floor votes since he announced his candidacy in april. while a report earlier this month found a quarter of rubio's missed votes this year came, oh, before he was a candidate. rubio was even one of only three senators to miss a vote on a lifetime judicial appointment yesterday morning, but three hours before he arrived on the floor to say government employees should be fired for not doing their jobs, mike barnicle, is the snark that you

hear in my voice a little over the top? or is this guy like very unself-aware? extremely. >> it's a preposterous position he's taking given the fact that he's on the road. understandably. you're running for president. to stand up on the floor of the united states senate and castigate others for not doing your jobs when you haven't been doing what is your job. one quick anecdotal thing, back to the trump polls. joe, if you go up to new hampshire, i know you're going up there several times, and you've been up there, the southern rim of new hampshire, a large part of it are expatriates who have moved up from michigan. if you look at the composition of trump's vote, they're pat buchanan's vote. largely ex-democrats from massachusetts, a lot of them, not all of them. they're not going anywhere. they're going to stick with trump, i think, right down the road. >> they're going to stick with trump. what i am finding, too, and mark

harp halperin, curious if you're finding the same thing. i was talking to a top banker in new york city who -- again, i am shocked that this cuts across all demographic boundaries and all idealogical boundaries, who told me i have voted conservative, i have gone with the establishment my whole life. he is 60 years old. he swore -- he said blank blank-it, i am voting for trump. i am voting for trump. there is -- i must say, i am blown away by the people that come up to me, whether in new hampshire or even in manhattan across the country that are using donald trump as a vehicle for -- for a generation of anger and angst. these are educated people with advanced degrees. you start to try to talk through issues with them. it all goes back to they don't

know what they're doing in washington, maybe this guy can do a better job. >> there is no doubt that trump's base nationally and in the early states as mike suggested are less well-educated people without college degrees. more working class and blue collar. there is also no doubt that he has substantial support amongst better educated, wealthier people in enough numbers to be up there. to go back to what al said. carson is now the alternative to trump for a lot of voters. again, across demographic groups, particularly in iowa where he is doing better than trump is right now overall, amongst evangelicals, et cetera. trump's support is not confined to one single group. and the -- to me the most interesting thing in all these polls now is where is the establishment vote? to be sure, trump is getting some of it, but it's basically missing. there is not one establishment candidate showing strength. again, al was right. bush's numbers are inflated in new hampshire because of the advertising. but where is the establishment? it's sprinkled around amongst

ten different candidates. can it, will it consolidate? >> and the money is not consolidated. there is a lot of money still on the sidelines because they still don't know who can win. i do want to say this going back to, al hunt, what you said, talking about ben carson. i have been saying this for the past couple of days. if this campaign continues to go in the direction it's been going in, you have got to look at ben carson as a possibility of showing very strongly in iowa, very strongly, possibly winning iowa, and then you go to new hampshire, and that looks like it's -- it's where trump can do very well. you've got to look at these early states, as you know better than anybody, al, and not just look at the national polls. right now you are right. ben carson, in a place like iowa, is looking very strong. >> yeah. he is, joe. and to take that new hampshire poll that came out. our new hampshire poll.

he said some things that i consider absurd, like if -- the nazis wouldn't have been as successful if germans only had guns. we asked people in new hampshire about it. that's the kind of moderate conservative republican electorate. by better than four to one they said it doesn't bother them. he has a certain mannerism that is appealing that enables to say what some of us would consider outrageous or make outrageous remarks and it doesn't seem to have any effect. let's move on to paul ryan, who says he is willing to step up for the speaker job, the void being left by john boehner, but there are a few catches here. in a meeting last night with the house republican conference, congressman ryan laid out the terms on which he would be willing to serve as speaker. ryan, who initially said he was not interested in the job, told his republican colleagues that he is willing to serve, but only if the caucus unites behind him by friday. and he has a few other requests.

>> first, we need to move from an opposition party to being a proposition party. second, we need to update our house rules. it needs to include fixes that ensure that we do not experience constant leadership challenges and crises. third, we as a conference should unify now and not after a divisive speaker election. last point is personal. i cannot and i will not give up my family time. i may not be on the road as often as previous speakers. i pledge to try to make up for it with more time communicating our vision and message. what i told members is, if you can agree to these requests and if i can truly be a unifying figure, then i will gladly serve. >> wow. i thought that -- just on a personal note, the comment about his family time was wonderful. i hope more women follow suit on

that. many members welcomed ryan's offer, including some who were entertaining bids for speaker. congressman jason chaffetz immediately withdrew his bid and pledged his support. not congressman daniel webster of florida who told the "washington post" what we saw was power at work for ryan. is anyone surprised? the drudge report labeled ryan king paul while highlighting an endorsement that may not help him among his republican colleagues. >> paul ryan, who i hope gets to be the next speaker, very reasonably said last week, quote, if the united states missed a bond payment it would shake the convents of the world economy. he appears to me to be one of the people over there that would be reasonable. look at some of the other people. i am a paul ryan fan. i don't agree with him on much of what he does. >> joe, i don't blame him. he is quoted as saying i am willing to take arrows in the

chest but not in the back. he wants everybody behind him. i think it makes a lot of sense. >> well, perhaps. i am a big paul ryan fan, i think paul should run, and i hope he does run. i think he can be unifying. i -- very interested, though, in the stagecraft of all of this, as somebody that was involved in a few leadership fights and a few fights to run speakers out of town, i don't know that i would have done it quite that way. i think you do it quietly and you do it behind the scenes, and you don't have daniel webster and some other talking about how he is being anointed king. but maybe that's the only way that paul ryan wanted to do it. still ahead on "morning joe," with the mets on the verge of going back to the world series, we're talking baseball with the writer for the new york daily news. we'll bring in the daily collar's matt lewis for the

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plus, helpful advice from the sleep experts. don't miss mattress price wars at sleep train. ♪ sleep train ♪ your ticket to a better night's sleep ♪ tomorrow hillary clinton is scheduled to testify before the house select committee on benghazi. but ahead of that, we're looking at new poll numbers concerning clinton's response to the 2012 terrorist attack. and according to a new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, 44% of americans say they are unsatisfied with clinton's response to the attack. 27% say they are satisfied. at the same time, new poll numbers show that 36% of americans think the current

congressional investigation into the benghazi attack is unfair and too partisan. 29% believe it's fair and impartial. and another 33% say they don't know enough about the investigation. so of note in this poll, more people are unsatisfied with clinton's response to the attack, 44%, than who think the investigation is unfair or too partisan, 36%. i am actually really surprised about that, joe. that's sort of like a disconnect. i guess that i have with the people that i talk to in the rest of the country. >> i am just not surprised at all. it has been an article of faith in the mainstream media since this happened that this is some right-wing republican crazy conspiracy theory. we had joe klein on, a man i respect very much yesterday, saying, oh, ambassadors are killed all the time. no. this hasn't happened since 1979. i don't think this is the first thing on peoples's minds but

it's been an article of faith with liberals and an article of faith with people in the mainstream media that, if you say the word "benghazi" everybody is going to roll their eyes. no, that's not the case. something happened there. something serious happened there. you had the white house, susan rice, the secretary of state talking past each other. and nobody knows exactly what happened. did susan rice have it right? did hillary have it right? did the white house have it right? willie, there is no doubt the republicans have overstepped on this issue time and time again. i was harshly critical of mitt romney holding a press conference the day after the ambassador was killed. and i said, that is not the thing to do. don't politicize his death. harshly critical of mitt romney and the republicans. that said, you look at these numbers, and when you ask americans who has handled

benghazi well, hillary is minus 17. this republican investigation, they're minus 7. but more importantly, a third of americans say they don't know enough. so actually this hearing at the end of this week, not only matters, it matters a lot. >> well, obviously the remarks by kevin mccarthy and others set this back, to a guy like trey gowdy who has went over backwards to try to prosecute this in a fair way. people say he's been among the best at trying to do this the right way. that looms over. the comments mccarthy and others have made loom over because it confirms everyone is on the democratic side suspicions of what this is really all about. there are serious questions. joe klein talking yesterday about the video. six months made prior to the attack. that doesn't really hold up as a motivation. chris made pleas for help, for extra security. why weren't those answers.

there were still open questions in this investigation. they will be answered. hillary clinton up there tomorrow and will sit across from trey gowdy and the committee and answer those questions. coming up on "morning joe." >> i'm sorry, martha. this is a burch of malarkey. >> a bunch of malarkey? >> yeah. >> what does that mean? >> it's irish. >> no. irish is i come over there and smack that dumb look off your face. joe biden and paul ryan take center stage. neither is showing a lot of willingness to guide their party at all costs. mike lupica and matt lewis join us next. has a number. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. for those who've served and the families who've supported them, we offer our best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve.

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it's not good what's happening here. welcome back to "morning joe." mike barnicle and steve schmidt are back with us, joe. also joining the conversation, mr. sunshine himself, columnist for the "new york daily news," mike lupica who claims he is not cranky. >> mika. can i ask you something? >> yeah. >> did you change shirts or lupica? >> no. >> i just said that. i just said that! same thing. >> no. i was hot. i just didn't like -- i -- i want a smaller size. >> you mean you thought you were -- you thought you were too hot for viewers and everybody was tweeting inappropriate things to you like they always do? >> i love the sweater. i just need a smaller size.

it's just hot. >> there is nothing for me in this conversation. there is not one -- >> all right. >> there's nothing for me here. >> maybe -- okay. in washington senior contributor to for "the daily caller" matt lewis is with us as well. guess who is too hot, lupica? daniel murphy. >> it's almost impossible to process. i was saying to mike and steve before, this is what happens in baseball in october. the baseball guys go down the line and say, murph, we want to talk to you. don't try to understand this or explain it. for the next three weeks we'll turn you into babe ruth. that's exactly what's happened. >> hey, joe, we're in the eve of two anniversaries that lupica will tell you about. you will appreciate both anniversaries. go ahead. >> yesterday was the 11th anniversary of the red sox going into yankee stadium and finishing off their -- coming from 0-3 down to beat the

yankees. tomorrow is the 40th anniversary of carlton fisk's home run against the reds in the 1975 world series. >> last night, mike barnicle i hash tagged the greatest thing that ever happened in the history of the world. i still can't believe what happened in 2004. game six also. i have a great book on game six. yeah. this is -- that's back when the red sox weren't in last place, mike. do you think our kids may ever -- do you think our kids may live long enough to see the red sox end up in like third or fourth? >> joe, i am going to tell you something. next year is the year. i've been saying that for 60 years. >> mike, you said that last year. so mike lupica, the cubs -- the cubs have their back to the wall. any way they dig out of it? is this mets team too good? >> we were just talking about 2004, joe. the difference between the mets team and the yaerng team, the yankees ran out of pitchers that year. you have all these guys on the

mets who look like they should be in a garage band. and degrom in particular, michael, this is the greatest postseason pitching performance -- not that there have been a lot for the mets -- better than seaver, gooden, anybody. 3-0. 27 strikeouts. he has also gone a little bit unconscious. >> you factor in their ages, three of them. harvey, sin sinned guared and degrom. the heat they come with every night it just amazing. >> go ahead, joe. >> i was going to say, the reason i love october so much is you never know what's going to happen. mike lupica, we have been talking all year about the cardinals organization, the best that there is. but it's actually another team from missouri right now that has shocked everybody. they're up 3-1. it looks like the royals are going to the series. >> joe, if you are a new yorker and you have watched this amazing mets story unfold, you think they're the team of destiny. but guess what, since the royals

played the last world series down to the bottom of the ninth of game seven with the tying run on third, they think this is their year. and it would be two great baseball stories colliding if it's them in the world series next week. >> for steve and matt, let's go to the political polling that suggests trump is leading the field in voter preference and expectations. the new poll shows trump leading the way with 32% support, down a point since september. ben carson is ten points back of trump, 22%. when it comes to which candidate republicans think is the most likely to win the nomination, trump leads over the rest of the field, and it's -- his lead is much larger. 42% of respondents say they think trump has the best chance while just 15% think carson is the most likely to win. jeb bush and marco rubio, well back at 12% and 5% respectively.

nearly half view trump as the strongest leader. 39% think he would be best to handle immigration. 32% feel he is closest to them on the issues. and 29% say he best understands the problems of people like you. joe. not necessarily you. >> you know -- not me. but most americans. matt lewis, the -- this past week has been an important week in the history of the republican party. it's the first time the republican leaders, the guys and the women who have been running our party for the past 30 years have finally awakened to the fact that donald trump has a better than even chance of being the next nominee. and now they're trying to figure out how to destroy him. what happens next? >> it took us this long to get through the different levels of grief to get to the acceptance level to say i think trump really could be the nominee. i think it's still possible that

this is people flirting or dating trump and they'll come to their senses and end up supporting marco rubio a few months from now. but look, you know, daniel patrick moynihan said culture is more important than politics. i think what we're seeing here with the phenomenon of trump and ben carson is frankly the inexorable result of the culture changing and our politics finally catching up with it, you know. the culture no longer values things like experience that it once did or humility. instead we have the celebrity of politics. entertainment value injected into politics. we used to have institutions. you would work at one job for 40 years and they'd give you a gold watch. we no longer have that. people are not loyal anymore. i think that applies to parties, folks. you have donald trump attacking the last republican president. that tells you something is different. >> well, it actually tells you that what we've got is a

candidate who is not afraid to say what he thinks, and he actually -- i don't know, lupica, like it or not, there is kind of something that could work here. the criticism for george w. bush's administration and his policies and his decisions, the criticism or obama and the individuality. i don't know. i -- >> i was speaking to him yesterday, mr. trump, and i -- i asked him. i said, did you ever think when you started this that you would tap into something like this? he says now that he did. he is surprised that it happened this big and this fast. but when people talk about celebrity, the -- when obama got elected the first time, steve, wasn't that about -- didn't he become that kind of celebrity? wasn't there a show-business aspect to that? i don't think this is tremendously new. >> no doubt. no doubt. we talk about experience too. we're having a very narrow definition of it. donald trump has experience. american people are looking at donald trump's experience and saying he has experience

winning. his experience as being competent. and experience in running the broken institutions of government that are failing the american people in the eyes of republican voters is the disqualification, and they want something new. and so, this notion, though, in washington d.c., that there is a -- there was a quote in the paper saying there will be 10,000 gross rating points of negative ads on donald trump and that will take him down. it's absolute ludicrousness. the notion that tv ads seen a hundred times by your average voter in new hampshire are all of a sudden going to flip this upside down and another candidate's going to emerge -- >> lost in the '80s to think that. joe, jump in. >> they already know that he is a single payer. they know he was a democrat. they know where he was on abortion. they know these things. they are factored in. they're so hungry for strong leadership after obama and bush that they will take a guy who

is, let's say, flexible on the issues. but matt lewis, you talk about the culture. so much of this lays also at the feet of the republican establishment in washington d.c. that have made promises to their base and lied. and they've lied for years about balancing the budget. they've lied for years about cutting spending. they've lied for years about a humble foreign policy. they've lied for years about fighting k street. they've lied for years about fighting special interests. they haven't lied to americans. they've lied to their base primarily. and donald trump are the chickens all coming home to roost? are they not? >> i think they are, joe. don't want to go too deep into history. this will sound absurd but i think when the soviet union was around the conservative coalition stuck together because of the existential threat. the foreign policy wing, the social conservatives hated the godless communists. the economic conservatives hated

the anti-capitalist philosophy. ever since the fall of the soviet union conservatives have been looking for a way to keep the coalition together. some people thought 9/11 might be the answer to that, fighting the global war on terrorism. seems like things are coming apart at the seams and all of a sudden republicans can't say, they're going to come take your guns and that's enough to keep people happy and keep them voting. >> mike, can you translate? i -- must be my ideology. i am confused about the establishment candidates that some folks may be -- that matt might think that would prevail in this -- >> mika, started if, this somebody had asked me to bet my own money, i would have bet jeb bush would be the nominee. >> right. >> we'll find out if these wounds are self-inflicted or trump inflicted. i said to mr. trump yesterday, do you think they'll come after you in the next debate? he said, if they do, i'll go at

them times ten. >> quickly. i have to add one point to this conversation that we're having. we have a tendency as a group of people, not just us, but people in the media, to really over think things and over express ourselves? >> gee, really? >> talking about anniversaries earlier. there is an anniversary coming up -- we're in the middle of it now, actually -- seven years ago, in 2008, the economy collapsed and a whole large group of americans, probably a majority of americans, became, for lack of a better phrase, politically homeless because the underpinnings of their ideology and their political loyalties deserted them as they were losing their homes, jobs and wages. thus the attraction of trump and people like that. >> makes sense. mike lupica. very cheerful today actually. matt lewis, thank you very much. power-packed show tomorrow.

guess who is going to be here? bill crystal. james carville, barney frank and chair of the homeland security committee congressman mark mccall. from cult classic to a new movie. molly ringwald, the star of "jem and the holograms" joins us next. awe believe active management can protect capital long term. active management can tap global insights. active management can take calculated risks.

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joining us now a member of the '80s brat pack. can you believe it's the 30th anniversary? 30th. >> stop. stop. i'm old. >> who starred in the classic movies, molly ringwald is back. she is now starring in the new movie "jem and the holograms." >> the best one yet! >> great to have you back. >> thank you. >> how are you? >> i'm doing well. >> 30 years. >> that's right. >> tell us about it. >> it's been, yeah, 30 years, the breakfast club has been around and popular. i have been doing these sort of q & a screenings where i talk to

fans about the movie and sort of reminisce and remember things from my memoirs. >> i love it. >> isn't it remarkable how it's really -- it really spans across generations. >> i know. it's amazing. astounding to me. >> tell us about "jem and the holograms." you play the protective aunt. >> i do. i am aunt bailey, the mother figure to these four girls who become the holograms. the movie does look at how people become famous overnight. a lot of young kids, i think before they're even -- realize how this is going to change and impact their lives. so it was a really interesting subject matter for me because i have two daughters, one son. and of course my almost 12-year-old really wants that. you know. and it's constantly me talking to her about, well, you have to look at how this is going to affect your life. if you want to do this. once it goes out there, that's it. >> easy to say from -- i can understand the problem there.

we have a clip from molly's new movie, "jem and the holograms." take a look. >> a version of me that they want doesn't -- it doesn't exist. >> if i go on stage, they're not going to see this gem. they're going to see this small-town wannabe who writes songs to sing in her shower. >> i think you're absolutely right. you are no rock star. >> right. yeah. i mean, no. that's exactly what i am saying. >> i think you have the potential to become something so much greater. >> aunt bailey, just listen. >> no. you listen. there are some ideas, some voices, that are too special to keep hidden. >> it's just that i know that this could really help with the family and the house and -- >> this is not about the house. okay. this is about you not going your whole life wondering what would

have happened if you had taken that chance. >> that's strong. >> i -- you were just saying the movie -- how the casting came together kind of has a different approach as well. >> yeah. the four main girls, the holograms, they were all cast in a traditional way. but some of the other parts were cast from, you know, people sending in clips, you know, onto youtube. a big involvement with crowd sourcing. this is the first film i've done that utilizes that. it makes sense. >> how old are your kids? >> my daughter will be 12 this week and i have 6-year-old sw twins. >> i have to ask you. this is about stardom. rags to riches story. would you want your daughters or your son to get in the business? >> not as young people. i want them to get an education and really make the decision as an adult.

i mean -- >> if you could go back and do it just -- >> differently? >> -- would you wait until you graduated from college and say now -- >> it's hard to say. i feel lucky to have had the life that i have had. but i just think statistically, if you look at the chances that kids have of having a successful life emotionally later on. >> right. >> -- it doesn't work in child actors' favors. >> it's not that good. >> hard to say. but my daughter says, but you did it. why can't i do it? >> talk about john hughes. what was so special about him? >> for me at that age it was the fact that he understood and remembered what it was like to be a teenager even though he wasn't a teenager. he was 36 when i started working with him. we were 18 years apart to the day, born on february 18th. >> wow. >> it was just -- there was nobody that i met that was that age that could remember what it felt like to be a teenager. it was just very present for

him. i mean, he even remembered his locker combination. i don't remember my locker combination. but he remembered all of that. it was just very present. so he didn't talk down to us. he was really sort of like one of us. it was very special. great memory. >> the new movie is "jem and the holograms." molly ringwald. good to have you back on the show. >> thank you. >> thank you so much. we'll be right back with more "morning joe." ♪ ♪

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>> i learned that 11 years ago i was in yankee stadium and 40 years ago in fenway park. i have wasted much of lie life on baseball. >> what people figured out we still don't know what we don't know about trump's candidacy. >> there are less days left than there are behind us to the voting in iowa. donald trump has maintained this lead and well on his way. that does it for us on "morning joe." if it's way too early, joe, what time is it? >> time for "morning joe." stick around. "msnbc live" starts right now. good morning. i am josé díaz-balart. live on location at the white house this morning as we closely follow big developments from both ends of pennsylvania avenue. breaking overnight. congressman paul ryan says he will run for speaker of the house on his terms. and vice president joe biden is sounding more like he is jumping into the 2016 race.