right now on "andrea mitchell reports," october surprise. hillary clinton's best month yet continues as she survives the benghazi grilling. >> quite a week, hasn't it? i had a pretty long day yesterday. but i finally got to answer questions. the carson surge. a new poll shows ben carson trumping trump in iowa as the doctor airs his first tv ads. >> learning from crowds that they are hungry for some honesty and for some real solutions to the problems that ail us. eye of the storm. hurricane patricia grows to a size and strength never seen before by anyone. >> this is the strongest storm we have ever flown in, any man,

any woman, anywhere has flown into this storm, the fourth strongest recorded storm we have had on our planet and later tonight, this will make landfall as the strongest storm ever in the history of our planet. good day, everyone. i'm andrea mitchell on the trail in alexandria, virginia where hillary clinton is about to hold a rally this hour. an encore to her 11-hour long testimony before the republican-led benghazi committee. with critics asking just what was accomplished? >> so far today, i've said good morning, good afternoon -- >> y'all serving breakfast, congressman? >> for 11 hours there was plenty of political theater. >> i don't care if you sent it by morse code, carrier pigeon,

smoke signals. what is relevant is that he was sending information to the secretary of state. >> i've heard one dismissive thing after another. i was this group, it was that group. i wasn't served by this. i wasn't served by that. what did you do? what do you own? >> well, i was just telling you some of the many related issues i was working on to try to help the libyan people -- >> what's your responsibility to benghazi? that's my question. >> four americans died in the attack. state department information officer and air force veteran sean smith, cia officers tyrone woods and glenn dougherty and ambassador chris stevens, who had sent hundreds of requests for more security in benghazi but none to clinton. >> did you ever talk to ambassador stevens when all of this was going on in the hot bed of libya? that is a yes or no question, madam secretary. i'm sorry, yes or no, please. >> yes, i believe i did. >> we have no record that you had any conversations with the

ambassador after you swore him in and before he died, and you were his boss. >> i was the boss of ambassadors in 270 countries. >> clinton was asked why she went home the night of the attack after it was confirmed the four americans had died. >> who else was at your home? were you alone? >> i was alone. yes. >> the whole night? >> well, yes. the whole night. >> it was clinton who spent the most time talking about the victims of the attack. >> you know, i would imagine i've thought more about what happened than all of you put together. i've lost more sleep than all of you put together. >> by the end of the day, clinton was losing her voice. and while she was praised for keeping her cool, the committee's democrats were out of patience. >> i don't know what we want from you. do we want to badger you over and over again until you get tired, until we do get the gotcha moment he's talking about? we're better than that. >> and so it went.

joining me now, chuck todd, moderator of "meet the press" and host of msnbc's "mtp daily" and chris cillizza, msnbc contributor, founder of the "washington post" fix blog. thanks to both of you. chuck, you watched it all. she still has the hurdle of the fbi investigation but she's really put at least the republican-led benghazi issue to bed, if not the larger question of the foreign policy, that toppled gadhafi and led to arguably the disaster in libya. >> i accept the first premise. i don't accept the second premise. i think you're right about benghazi and the incident itself. i think that that is largely for her as a political problem put to bed. but it's very likely that the republican nominee is going -- may get there because of national security issues and i think that her record as secretary of state, her interventionist instinct in

libya, is going to be fodder in a general election and is going to be i think something that's going to be difficult for her to defend. but i will go back to these last, you know, we're now at nine days and tomorrow, let's see how the iowa j.j. dinner goes for her but it is a remarkable nine days for her, and you saw her many -- everything ended up playing to her strengths and her greatest strength as a politician is she has two great strengths in my mind. endurance and preparation. and it was her endurance and preparation that got her through the first debate. she had a good performance. everybody around her did so poorly, it looked like a great performance. and yesterday was carbon copy. it was a good performance. i think she did an awful lot of deflecting. i think peter roskam's frustration there is a fair frustration. she didn't -- it was always somebody else that had an issue, but she was good and her

questioners were terrible so she looked great. it was because of endurance and preparation. >> you know, i didn't mean to misspeak. what i was saying was exactly what you're saying, she put to bed this benghazi issue, who was responsible for the security failure, but not the larger question of her foreign policy which i think is very much on the table. they tried, a couple of them tried to tee that up because her foreign policy is, you know, is something that she should be tested on and nobody really talks about who lost libya. >> can i just tell you, where was that question? where was it? >> exactly. >> i didn't get it. >> here you had all these former prosecutors so you would think that they were former prosecutors, former u.s. attorneys, and a good chair and a good committee organizes the questioning so that there is a line, there is a theory of the case, but there was no narrative that chris cillizza, that built one on top of the other.

>> it felt as though they were each in their -- especially on the republican side, they were each in their sort of own room questioning her and the others weren't -- hadn't been privy to the other questions. i think that was the problem. if you were looking for, okay, what's the main thrust to take out of this, to be frank, the main thrust you take out of it, this guy named sidney blumenthal was involved. most people have no idea who that is. to be frank, sure, you can score some points, well, sidney blumenthal was in regular contact with her and she wasn't in as regular contact with chris stevens but ultimately the way this issue hurts her is about judgment. why did you make that case, why were we there, why were you wrong, and that just didn't really get litigated out. it was all sidney blumenthal. >> when you look at what she has through not only through her own success, but through a lot of accidents of history, she now doesn't have to worry about joe biden as a direct competitor, although he certainly has taken

enough shots at her in his slow withdrawal from becoming an active candidate, as recently as the rose garden. she doesn't have to worry about the benghazi committee per se. she does have to worry about the fbi and the justice department looking into her server and what we don't know where that is going to go. but she now has to try to develop the passion that we haven't seen yet on the stump, and the j.j., jefferson-jackson dinner, is where barack obama just ran circles around her four years ago, and now she has to worry that bernie sanders will be a better candidate in that environment tomorrow night. >> well, i think, look, that is an open question. i am curious to see. this was a big moment for howard dean in 2003. this was a big moment for barack obama in 2007. i think this is sanders -- it should be in his sweet spot but does she, did democrats instead of just feeling relieved that

hillary clinton survived all this, do they suddenly feel some sense of i'm ready to go in a bunker with her now, and i'm ready to, you know, and will we get a sense that she has learned how to build an iowa operation this time where she failed to do it eight years ago. so i think tomorrow's still an important test to see does she have on the ground enthusiasm. she could really put an exclamation point on these ten days if she owns the j.j. tomorrow. >> speaking of iowa, there's that new des moines bloomberg politics poll, and boy, ben carson now at 28%, donald trump at 19%. this is the first time we have seen ben carson opening such a lead. >> we saw this, you saw the trend line. trump starting to fade though not collapsing but starting to fade, and carson really coming up strong. look, if you look at who iowa typically, who iowa republicans typically pick, carson is much

more in that mold than donald trump. so we mike huckabee in 2008, rick santorum in 2012. >> pat robertson. >> right. very socially conservative. that's the building block. that's much more ben carson than donald trump. some of the numbers out of the bloomberg poll i thought were striking. more than 80% of likely iowa republican caucus goers agree with the idea that ben carson has put forward many times that obamacare is worse than slavery. three in four believe that his policies are the right policies for the country. they believe that a muslim should not be allowed to be president. so many of the ideas that some establishment republicans said throw him out, ben carson is proving he's not ready for this, people in iowa who are going to be voting say he's right in line with us. real disconnect between washington republicans i think and iowa republicans. >> so that's one of the challenges just to find out more about who ben carson is.

you've got him on "meet the press." >> i think that's what it is. that's the type of, i'm going out to ames tomorrow to interview and sit down with him face-to-face because i think we are now in that different moment. i think ben carson, we have all been watching this and you looked at the msnbc/"wall street journal" poll earlier in the week, you could see this was building and that carson was sort of taking flight among the social conservative wing of the party which is always a powerful place to start. carson has something that huckabee and santorum did not have at this point in time, money. he's on the air and he also has intellectual pedigree that actually potentially allows him to cross over. but i think now the question's going to be how will ben carson hold up when people look at him as a potential president. i think for the last six months they have looked at him as a messenger of washington frustration. when you move from messenger to potential president, how does he hold up?

is he ready for his close-up? i think that that's what the next three months for him are going to be like. >> the other news today on the republican side, jeb bush, a conference call with campaign supporters, cutting the payroll. he was supposed to be the mega-rich well-financed candidate. he's got the super pac. what about the daily hard money he needs to run his campaign? >> i tell you, i think, we knew this was coming. i feel like the bush campaign was quietly trying to telegraph this, that this was possible you would hear these leaks here or there. you know, you hate to say that any candidate given what we saw when john kerry semi-collapsed in '03 and then resuscitated himself and john mccain collapsed in '07 and he came back, but i think the next couple of weeks are extremely important for jeb bush, because if the next two debates don't go well for him and you couple that with this financial issue, he

could see a lot of people leave him for marco rubio out of desperation. the romney bundlers, the big financial network, still hasn't really aligned itself. they are going to go with the establishment candidate, whoever that is. if they all of a sudden say boy, jeb's not going to happen, we better put our chips in with rubio, it may be the only way the establishment can win, that could be debilitating to jeb. it's a very big three weeks for jeb bush. >> in fact, chris, that is exactly what we are going to be looking for. in the cnbc debate and after next week's debate on the 28th, this is a real test for jeb bush. >> absolutely. because look, the truth of the matter is jeb bush, this is adversity for jeb bush in a way that we didn't expect. he was the $100 million man. the man with not the golden last name but with still a very good last name in politics. guy with the resume. this is real adversity.

chuck and i have talked about this. we have talked about this. the thing i always wonder is once jeb bush starts talking, forget the money. forget the campaign. forget the resume. once jeb bush starts talking to republican voters, not the media, not -- to republican voters in iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, beyond, do they buy what he's selling? he's at 5% in a poll in iowa, he was at 5% back in may. he's not moved. they have spent money. i think there are real questions. he has to find a message beyond well, i'm probably going to win. the inevitably thing is basically gone. we have seen mccain as chuck mentioned, carry. we have seen people find it. but that's not his argument anymore. >> chris cillizza, thank you so much. make sure to tune in to chuck on "meet the press" this sunday. chuck will have dr. ben carson. and tonight, rachel maddow will have the first interview with hillary clinton since the benghazi hearing. watch that exclusive interview. now we have breaking news out of mexico where the strongest storm ever recorded is

set to make landfall later today. hurricane patricia is a category 5 storm, with maximum winds of 200 miles per hour. they are expected to strengthen. the impact could be devastating. massive flooding and catastrophic wind damage expected. joining me now is nbc's al roker. al, this is a pretty scary prognosis. >> it really is. in fact, mexico has never had a category 5 storm actually make landfall along its pacific coast. right now it's 125 miles southwest of manzannillo, 200 miles per hour winds. it is moving north at 10 miles per hour. so the track of this, we expect it to come onshore as a category 5 storm, weaken fairly quickly stimulaometime late this aftern. by saturday morning it's making its way into central mexico. catastrophic storm surge expected, anywhere from 10 to 20 feet of storm surge and rainfall, flooding rains,

especially when you get into the mountains. rainfall of eight to 12 inches but that lift helps to squeeze out all the moisture. you could see upwards of 20 inches of rain. that's bad news for texas, because we have got one heavy system moving through and now the moisture from patricia will start to make its way in and as it does, we are looking for big problems. so we already have flash flood watches and warnings in effect today into early next week, moisture from the gulf coast and moisture from patricia will start to make its way in, so that's why we also are seeing by this afternoon, more heavy rain starting to push in. you will see that funneling in from san antonio, houston, dallas, on into abilene. severe storms, can't rule out a tornado or two. we also have coastal flood warnings and advisories all the way to coastal louisiana. strong rip currents, beach erosion, plus flooding coastally as those waves reach in past the

dunes. so for today, rainfall, north-central texas is the bull's eye. these are slow-moving cells, upwards of five inches right around waco, texas. then we move on into saturday. we are looking at heavy rain shifting to the east along the coast from corpus christi to houston. significant flooding, houston, austin, corpus christi as well. sunday, it makes its way into louisiana. significant rainfall, some areas up to six inches of rain. as we look at it as a total, next five days, some places, 12 inches or more, especially between dallas and houston. heavy rain through the week. so we are really, this weekend is going to be a very, very dangerous weekend for the gulf coast, central texas and louisiana. >> wow. what a forecast. al roker, thanks. we'll be looking out for our friends down there. up next here, hillary clinton on the trail. clinton campaign communications

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vice president joe biden has been in the trenches with us for years. as he said the other day, there is more work to do and if i know joe, he'll be right there with us on the front lines. >> hillary clinton today saying publicly what her aides are saying privately to biden supporters. there's plenty of room, come on in. clinton campaign communications director jen palmieri joins me now. according to the "new york times" you were on the phone with biden supporters after he announced his decision, telling them, undecided democrats and others who are openly supporting

joe biden, appealing to them to come on board. what's your basic message? >> well, you know, at first as secretary clinton said today and she said on the day the vice president announced his decision, we have enormous respect and affection for the vice president. he has always been, everything he and the president accomplished together, particularly the vice president focused on economic recovery and she really wanted to particularly today congratulate him on the work he's done and is going to do. and our message to any potential supporters is the same that it is, that she makes across the country and i think particularly we have seen in the last couple of weeks a lot of important moments, where you see that on the debate stage or as we saw at the hearing yesterday, hillary clinton is someone who when

voters see her being able to talk about the problems in their lives, issues they care about, the difference she's going to make in their lives, people really respond to that and i think that people have seen a lot of mettle in her the last couple of days. i think people have known that's always been there. but what comes through at both the hearing and the debate is the depth of commitment and certainly knowledge but also commitment to the causes she's fighting for and the people she's working with is important for voters to see. we think we have had a good couple of weeks. the primary's still very competitive. it will be very tough. it will be very tough for the democratic nomination. she will be asking people for their support. >> joe biden even in the rose garden took a couple of not very subtle jabs at hillary clinton on a number of issues. first of all, her comment in the debate that republicans are enemies. she said later she was joking.

but he has not been very -- i don't know, he hasn't hidden his disagreements with her very much. i was at the mondale tribute the other night. it was very obvious there. >> having been on the other side of this where people read into what your candidate or your boss says, perhaps motivations, i don't know that i accept that. i think that they have had, they have been friends for years, they have been good colleagues. she has -- >> there has been friction. >> -- enormous respect for him. >> there certainly has been friction. he wouldn't have been running if he didn't say it publicly, he wouldn't have even been considering running if he didn't think he would be a better general election candidate than hillary clinton. that's what he communicated to people. >> but that's not what he said in the rose garden. i think that he's decided that he's not going to do this. i believe hillary clinton will be our nominee and she will be very strong, i think she's our strongest candidate we can have in the general election.

she will launch a forceful fight against the republicans. he ultimately didn't decide to do this. >> one of the things that has been noted and we don't usually talk while the national anthem is playing, but we are sort of in a situation here where the timing has changed on this rally, but one of the things that has been noted that the fund-raising appeals that generated -- i think we should take a break for a moment. we will come right back to you. we will go to break while the anthem is being played. ♪ through the night that our flag was still there ♪ . but i really love it. i'm on the move all day long... and sometimes, i just don't eat the way i should. so i drink boost® to get the nutrition that i'm missing.

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director jen palmieri. jen, you have had a lot of money coming in between 9:00 and 10:00 last night, we're told, was the biggest online fund-raising of the whole campaign. this was right as the benghazi hearing was ending. >> it was interesting. we had not sent out any fund-raising appeals but to find as soon as the hearing ended from 9:00 to 10:00 we had the biggest hour of online fund-raising in the campaign and continue to have a very good night after that, but it did seem that it was particularly good with the debate. we know a lot of people watched that debate. and wasn't sure about the hearing yesterday but it does seem that a lot of people -- >> what was her reaction afterwards? >> when you are sitting in the room, when you are her, it's hard to know how it's going. so when we saw her at breaks, you know, that was [ inaudible ] she went through. she was sort of surprised to learn our reaction which was we thought that it was going really well and that not just her --

she had a great temperament which i think is a difficult thing to do, but she took a lot of care to try to paint as comprehensive a picture of what she was facing and what the people making the difficult decisions were facing dealing with benghazi and libya policy and just the secretary of state in general. i thought it gave everyone a very good window into not just how she was secretary of state but the person she is. there are so many stereotypes and caricatures of her, these moments even though it's 11 hours long, where you actually see her unfiltered i think is really useful and i guess that's what people reacted to last night. we will see how many people actually watched. i think ultimately the debate was probably a more important moment because that was her chance to talk about issues and problems she wants to tackle, but she -- we were really proud of how she did. >> jen palmieri, thanks so much. good luck on the campaign trail.

iowa's next. the pentagon meanwhile has identified the american special forces officer who was killed yesterday in that raid to free isis prisoners in iraq. 39-year-old delta force commando master sergeant joshua wheeler of oklahoma was the first american to die in action in an anti-isis campaign, the first to die in combat in iraq in four years. we is being described as a hero for rushing into close combat with isis. nbc's chief foreign correspondent richard engel explains how events unfolded. >> reporter: u.s. and allied kurdish forces took off in five helicopters heading to an isis prison on the outskirts of a town. u.s. officials say the prisoners were about to be executed. mass graves already dug. american forces manned the perimeter. allied kurdish fighters stormed in, but met heavy resistance. then nbc news has learned one

wave of americans followed by a second moved in to help. fearing their allies or the hostages would be killed but isis managed to shoot one american commando described by u.s. officials as selfless and heroic, and whose actions saved lives. >> richard engel joins me now from erbil. let's talk about what happened because this is an extraordinary event. special forces were obviously operating in a very unusual role. >> reporter: well, this is the kind of operation that special forces do. they do air assaults like this all the time in places like afghanistan. they will arrive in helicopters, they will land sometimes a mile or two away from the target so that they're not heard, then they will approach on foot, storm the target and try and leave. it's what happened when they killed osama bin laden.

it happens nightly in places around the world. but it was not part of the public policy or the way the war against isis was sold, especially here in iraq. when this administration sent military advisors back to iraq and there are now several thousand military advisors here, to train and assist the kurds, to train and assist the iraqi, advise and assist the iraqi army, the idea was that the americans would be behind their bases up in aircraft, manning drones, not going room to room fighting isis in close combat, which is what happened in that -- in this latest incident. i think that's why we are going to hear in about an hour the secretary of defense take some questions about this, why this raid was authorized and is it a sign of things to come. >> exactly my point, because in fact, there's a lot of pressure

coming from democrats in the senate to have a war authorization act and so far resistance from the white house, so a lot of questions as to whether or not this mission really was, according to, you know, violating the u.s. rules of war. >> reporter: well, what the u.s. -- what the pentagon has said and military officials i have spoken to have said is that this was an extraordinary case, that there was a request by kurdish forces who are based here in -- where i am right now in northern iraq, in the kurdistan region, and that there was imminent threat that the hostages were going to be executed, that four had been executed in the past 48 hours, so the group had already demonstrated intent, that they had dug mass graves and that intelligence believe that the hostages were about to be killed. but there is a wider story here, because there was also an

intelligence failure. while few are doubting that the american master sergeant wheeler went in, acted selflessly and saved lives, and according to the accounts, there are about 70 hostages who were rescued from this house and that is an enormous number. i can't think of another time anywhere in the world where 70 hostages were freed in a single mission but there was an intelligence failure as they were looking for other hostages. these weren't the people that they thought were in this isis prison. it was another group of very fortunate individuals who are now clearly very happy to be out of that prison but it didn't go exactly as planned. >> thanks so much, richard engel. of course, officer wheeler is the first victim again in this engagement in iraq, the first victim in four years. we are live in alexandria, virginia today following the clinton campaign. moments from now, hillary

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♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ -- things you learned today? >> i think some of jimmy jordan's questioning. well, when you say new today, we knew some of that already. we knew about the e-mails. in terms of her testimony? i don't know that she testified that much differently today than she has previous times she's testified. i would have to go back and look at the transcript. >> so when the chairman of the committee says that he didn't -- he doesn't know what he learned, whether there was anything new, that was a good day for the witness. even the benghazi committee chairman couldn't spin this one. 11 hours and no smoking gun. joining me now is former

republican virginia congressman, tom davis, who attended thursday's hearing and tad devine, senior advisor to the bernie sanders campaign. first to you, congressman. why did you go? >> this is high political theater. i haven't seen such exciting hearing since my steroid hearings we did a decade ago. why would you want to miss it? >> baseball and steroids. >> it's a great combination. high theater. >> tad, as a bernie sanders strategist, you had to be thinking if she could ace 11 hours, she's been blessed by her opponents, let's put it that way, so far. her republican opponents. >> i think people understand why bernie was saying we had enough of these damn e-mails now, okay? we certainly have. listen, he's not making an issue out of it. we are looking to the j.j. dinner saturday night in iowa. we want a campaign about issues where there are big differences between him and hillary. we are happy to make that campaign. i thought she did a great job yesterday. i really did. >> but there's new quinnipiac

poll numbers showing that in fact, hillary clinton is pulling ahead of bernie sanders on a couple of issues, guns and foreign policy. how do you narrow that gap with the progressive voters in iowa who clearly are concerned about a vermont senator's position on guns and about his lack of foreign policy experience in the debate? >> i think we can fill that in. first of all, she has pulled ahead and is doing better in iowa and new hampshire. they have spent $5 million on television advertising. we have spent zero. as we begin to make our case, we are beginning the persuasion period of the campaign. we get three months to the iowa caucuses. as people find out about bernie sanders, his background, his record, the decisions he's made in the foreign policy arena, the biggest foreign policy decision in the last 30 years is whether or not we should invade iraq. he got it right. she got it wrong. we are happy to debate these things and look forward to it. >> this is part of what she had to say this morning at the women's democratic forum. this was a not so subtle shot at bernie sanders on the subject of guns.

>> i have been told to stop and i quote, shouting about gun violence. well, first of all, i'm not shouting. it's just when women talk, some people think we're shouting. and i will not be silenced because we will not be silenced. not by the gun lobby, not by the size of this challenge, not by any of it. >> so she's not going to let up on that issue. to both of you, you've got to figure out how to either reposition your candidate or find a way to deal with that question in iowa. >> i don't think we have to reposition him. i think we need to tell his story. he's got a d-minus record from the nra because he earned it. this is a guy who has voted for gun safety measures throughout his career. whether it's closing the gun show loop hole, banning assault weapons, a number of other measures as well. i think you know, listen, if hillary feels strongly about that and she obviously does, i hope senator warner is here today who has an nra rating of

a, or senator casey in pennsylvania or the senator from west virginia who has an a rating, i hope she tells them that they need to get on board when it comes to guns, too. >> tom davis, as a republican, looking at the democratic side, you have got to be thinking how did they get so lucky. they have now two and a half candidates, say three candidates if you count martin o'malley, their race has narrowed and the republican race has narrowed to trump and ben carson, and a lot of also-rans. that's clearly not what traditional establishment republicans want to see. >> well, no. i don't think it's where it ends up. if you go back eight years at this point you had president fred thompson, president giuliani, go back four years, you had president gingrich. these races haven't really gelled yet. the public isn't paying attention. there is a long way to go. one thing is clear. the mood of the public is anti-establishment. that's a problem that hillary has, who does very well in the crowd but she is still establishment. she has bush's problem. you have to cope with that. i think it's part of sanders'

appeal, he's outside the political establishment at a time when people are looking for something different. >> tom, what about the ben carson appeal? how do you explain someone who has no government experience? okay, you have just explained the anti-government attitude right now, but he has said some really controversial things, the holocaust history that he seemed to be rewriting, but none of this has slowed him down. >> well, you have a group out there that society is changing all around them on social issues, economically they're not the same. get a guy like carson that stands right up to it, in trump's case he throws the brick through the plate glass window. in the case of carson he's a little more soft-spoken but social media, he's fantastic on social media. has a great network and he started off a lot better than most people who have never run for office before. so i mean, i think he's a serious candidate. he's raised some money to this point. among social conservatives, he is probably the primary candidate right now. >> speaking of money, jeb bush's staff we are told there's going to be payroll cuts.

he was supposed to be the big money establishment inevitable candidate on the republican side. can he come back from this? >> well, money can't buy a wave. we will find out pretty soon, they will spend some money but doesn't seem to have improved his numbers that much. it's hard to stop a wave. right now, certainly with the republican party's anti-establishment wave, i think we are seeing some of the same elements on the democratic side. >> so both of you are such smart strategists, if you had to look down the road, if it's not going to be donald trump or ben carson, who is the republican that's going to rise to the top? >> well, look, i'm a john kasich guy. i make no apologies for that. i think he would be a great candidate and a great president. but you have to look at rubio who is well positioned. ted cruz is pretty well positioned to pick up the pieces should trump crumble and should carson crumble at the end. >> tad? >> i think tom's right. i think if one of those establishment mainstream republican candidates winds up being the nominee, it will be a tough fight because nobody wants

to elect anybody to a third term. i think bernie, if he's the nominee, he wouldn't run for a third obama term. he will run for a first sanders term. and we respect everything the president has done, the vice president. the circumstances they came into were incredible. they have done a fabulous job. but the country is demanding change right now. if that's what they want, we have a chance of winning the election. >> our colleague luke russert has just gotten an exclusive moment with paul ryan who is now the acknowledged leader in the race to become the next speaker. let's take a look at that. >> reporter: are you set for the job, mr. ryan? >> you know me. i'm not a walk and talk guy. >> reporter: are you excited about this for your colleagues? to put this behind you? >> [ inaudible ]. >> so paul ryan heading home. you know paul ryan really well. you know the caucus. can he do what john boehner couldn't do and figure out a way to do tough things? >> it's a tough group to try to

tame at this point. no question about it. but paul ran for vice president so you've got 30 plus million americans voted for paul ryan for vice president. how do you say he's not ready to be speaker? which ranks behind that in terms of the hierarchy for the presidency. he's got the intellect, if anybody can hold this group together. but it won't be a unanimous vote on the floor. we have an ornery members of the caucus. he's the right guy if anybody can do it. >> thank you both so much. more coming up live from alexandria, virginia. just a few moments, we will be back. hillary clinton's going to be sfeg. proud of you, son. ge! a manufacturer. well that's why i dug this out for you. it's your grandpappy's hammer and he would have wanted you to have it. it meant a lot to him... yes, ge makes powerful machines. but i'll be writing the code that will allow those machines to share information with each other. i'll be changing the way the world works. (interrupting) you can't pick it up, can you? go ahead.

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[ chanting ] that was candidate barack obama in 2007 surrounded by a swarm of supporters in iowa. iowa's famed j.j. dinner gave obama a huge boost over hillary clinton back then. will clinton be able to solidify her lead tomorrow night this time around? msnbc's alex seitzwald joins me now. the gap so far that hillary clinton has had with bernie sanders is the passion gap.

the retail politics of it all, and the j.j. dinner is the biggest test yet of that. >> right. this is not typically a kind of setting that hillary clinton excels in. she will be speaking to democrats. but what we saw yesterday at the benghazi committee, those kind of grueling government grinding it out, that's where hillary clinton does well. she was never able to excite the crowds the way obama does. still, she's going to head into this tomorrow in a very different place than 2008. there is no barack obama this time around. it was around the j.j. dinner that barack obama put up this huge fund-raising number where he showed he could really pete with hillary clinton. no one has been able to do that yet. bernie sanders has done pretty well but not the same. i expect she will be well received. she will pack the arena with her fans. bernie sanders will, too. but the field has winowed. joe biden is gone. she is looking very strong right now. >> there is new polling, the quinnipiac poll shows that on

the subject of guns, she leads among democrats in iowa, leads sanders 43-24 overall in the iowa caucuses, 51-40 in the quinnipiac poll and also on foreign policy, a huge lead over sanders, 67% to 14% about who could best handle foreign policy. that's really a reflection of their debate performance last week. >> absolutely. the clinton campaign feels very good about the fact that she can go out there and talk about issues and move numbers. it might be ephemeral but she can have an impact. very hard to compete with a former secretary of state on foreign policy. >> thanks so much, alex. a lot to talk about when we see you on monday and next week. that does it for us for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." a big weekend in politics. don't forget to watch the rachel maddow show tonight. rachel will have the first interview with hillary clinton since that benghazi hearing. that is tonight 9:00 eastern. follow us online on facebook and on twitter. "msnbc live" is up next. across america, people...

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hi, everyone. today on "msnbc live" bracing for catastrophe. millions along mexico's pacific coast are preparing for patricia. a monster category 5 storm being called the strongest to ever hit the western hemisphere. we'll have a live report from the strike zone. also, one-time front-runner jeb bush reportedly taking a hatchet to his campaign payroll while donald trump says so long to his 100 days at the top. we've got new results of the des moines register poll that puts ben carson in the lead. and the unity candidate, paul ryan, making his bid for speaker of the house official, but not everyone's on board. we will talk to one republican about why he's not backing the former v.p. nominee. but we start this hour in alexandria, virginia. hillary clinton about to