still end up hosting? >> i do, too. >> thanks for watching "msnbc live," i'm richard wolf. have a great weekend. "hardball" starts right now. hillary clinton takes a victory lap. let's play "hardball." ♪ good evening. i'm steve kornacki in for chris matthews. hillary clinton is capping off what has been a very good week for her campaign with an exclusive interview right here on msnbc. my colleague rachel maddow talked to the democratic front-runner this afternoon. we'll have part of that interview in just a moment. first, let's look at what clinton has accomplished in the past ten days. this sends many observers said she emerged as the clear winner in that first democratic debate. for starters, she has rebounded in the polls. the latest quinnipiac poll from iowa puts clinton 11 points

ahead of bernie sanders. that's a double-digit jump from just a month ago. she's now the clear leader in the lead-off caucus state. meanwhile also, two competitors have dropped out of the race and another potential rival, vice president joe biden decided not to get in the race. yesterday through 8 1/2 hours of gruelling, often hostile questioning from republicans on the benghazi committee, a near universal consensus has emerged. clinton triumphed in those hearings. nbc news reports the 9:00 hour last night was their best fund-raising hour of the campaign to date. today, speaking to a group of democrats, hillary couldn't help but celebrate a little. >> it's been quite a week, hasn't it? >> and as i mentioned, rachel maddow sat down with secretary clinton for an exclusive interview. she asked about vice president joe biden. >> now that he said he is not running, are you jealous?

>> that's a really good question. >> i mean, he doesn't have to go through all this. >> well, bless his heart. look, i am a huge joe biden admirer, a friend, a former colleague. and i know this was an excruciating decision in a time of just such pain and grief for him and his family. he is liberated. and i don't think history is done with him. there is a lot for him and the president to keep doing in the next year and a half. and i want to build on the progress that they are leaving behind. i feel very strongly about that. i want to go further, but i think the real point of this election is whether or not the republicans are going to be able to turn the clock back and rip away the progress that has been made. >> and rachel maddow joins me now. rachel, we're going to interview you about your interview with hillary clinton. actually, i was watching as you taped it. one thing struck me at the very end, you said it was the first

time you actually met her. it was the first time you actually got a chance to sit down and talk with her. i'm curious -- we'll get into the substance. interview, but i'm curious what your impressions were. somebody you've seen in the news like the rest of us, and actually getting a face-to-face. what were your impressions personally? >> the thing that surprised me, i guess it's a local surprise, not a universal surprise about hillary clinton, i thought after 11 hours in that hearing room last night, when i heard that was going to be followed up with the big speech at the dnc today in washington and a big rally, and she's not doing a ton of big rallies but she had a big rally today in virginia, i thought by the time she got to talking to me in the afternoon, after doing all that, she would be sort of slithering in. you can see in that short clip the amount of energy she has. she's radiating energy. i think she likes winning and think she feels like politically on a lot of different fronts she's winning. she has incredible confidence. we definitely had some friendly questioning but definitely some more uncomfortable questioning. and she didn't flinch and she

had as much control, sort of emotional control, but also just like political control, and control of the sense of how her words would land in a way that just sort of makes you feel like you're in the presence of a political pro. >> or someone who sat through 11 hours of hearing the day before. >> have you done an interview with her? >> i did an ambush interview with her in my days of reporting. i asked her about the iraq war. i snuck into a fund-raiser, got into the receiving line, asked her a question and immediate wasly was escorted out. >> how did she react? >> she said it was nice to meet me. >> i don't know if she remembers that 22-year-old obnoxious reporter who tried to get the quote. >> the haircut and shaven. it's interesting. here on msnbc, you know, we're, for better or less, the more liberal of all the cable news networks. i've never had an interview with barack obama as a sitting president. i had one interview with him as

a candidate before he got elected. i've never spoken to hillary clinton. i've never spoken to bill clinton. i've never spoken to chillcy clinton. at one point she worked in this building. it is unusual to me having gone this long without pinning her down for an interview itself. i think that's a story in itself about democratic politics and how democrats deal with the media. it was nice to have her for a long period of time. >> we have another clip. you asked her about congressman mo brooks from alabama. i had him on "meet the press" and he said the grounds already exist to impeach hillary clinton if she becomes president hillary clinton. >> on day one. >> on day one. >> you asked her about that. let's play that clip. >> you don't have the nomination and there's already a sitting republican member of congress from alabama, mo brooks, who says that he is ready to impeach you on the first day of your presidency. >> isn't that pathetic? it's just laughable. >> it's amazing. >> it's so totally ridiculous. >> that is the republican party.

it's probably good politics in republican politics for him to say that. >> is-t is perhaps good politics with the most intense, extreme part of their base, i guess that is, or otherwise why would they be doing it? and i think we have to, you know, really try to build a larger base of our own that cuts across all kinds of geographic and political gradations. you know, let's try to have, you know, from a center right to a center left understanding about certain things. and then let's have a good old fashioned argument and fight about progressive values versus the alternatives. >> so, this is an interesting thing to me, actually. i mean, you talk about impeachment. her husband actually was impeached. she's watched for the last seven years, absolute gridlock, absolute opposition from the republicans has been the rule in terms of dealing with president obama. she already has a republican congressman talking about impeaching her if she gets elected. a certain part of me does wonder, why does she want back in? why does she want to be president with that reality? >> because she thinks she can

beat those people. i honestly think that's part of it. the reason i asked that question in that way is because, in part, joe biden when he got out, took a shot at her about her having said, at the last debate when she was asked, are you proud to be your enemy? she said one of the groups she was proud to have as an enemy, she said it in a joking way, but she said it as republicans. that has led to a little fris son of concern. not only from the vice president but a lot of beltway press and i think from some other democrats and people wondering if that's an unseemly thing to say. i don't think she means in in an existential way. i don't think she wants to kill republicans but i think she has a very different attitude towards republicans as president obama and it's earned over the years as public enemy number one. it makes her have a real politic attitude toward them, when she went into in some detail in this interview. i think the most controversial part of this interview when we air it at 9:00 is the contrast between how she approaches

republicans and how president obama approaches republicans. >> i'm curious about that. i don't want to give away too much of the interview, at the same time, if republicans do control the house, if she gets elected president, she'll have to deal with a republican house, maybe a republican senate. if they control just one of those chambers, what does she do? what would -- how would her approach be different in a way she would actually get something through? >> well, what she would say, i think, and she says this a little bit in the interview, and i've heard her elaborate it more in other contexts. she would say, listen, when i'm not in office, when i'm running for something, i'm their biggest target and they'll throw anything at me and it's a complete circus. when i was in office, when i was senator, secretary of state, i not only had good approval from republican voters and good approval ratings from republican americans, i get things done with republican auto elected officials and i think that will happen again when i'm president. i know they like to play politics with me when i'm running. i can handle that. watch when i get elected, it won't be that way. i have no illusion about these

guys because we know how this game is played. she's taking a sort of, wise man, forgive the phrase, a wise man, long horizon view between the relationship between republicans and democrats and what's a game and what's not. and it's a very serious difference between her and president obama. >> that would be a big difference. hillary clinton's testimony before the benghazi committee yesterday, as we say, lasted 8 hours, 17 minutes. a total of 11 hours if you count all the breaks. after the hearing the committee's chair, trey gowdy from south carolina, was asked what he learned from all of it. >> and -- >> reporter: can you tell us the most important new things you learned today? >> i think some of jimmy jordan's questioning -- well, when you say new today, i mean, we knew some of that already. we knew about the e-mails. in terms of her testimony? >> reporter: uh-huh. >> i don't know that she testified that much differently today than she has previous times she's testified, so i'd have to go back and look at the transcript. >> you know, i like to know

where i got this from but i read it today, someone said for a prosecutor, and trey gowdy is a former prosecutor, for a prosecutor to say that about a witness, that, you know, through eight hours of testimony, we got nothing new, that's the ultimate compliment a prosecutor can pay to a witness. >> well, and, i moon, it gives the game away in terms of why they had her there. the thing about being a good prosecutor is you never ask a question you don't know the answer to. they knew what she could answer to and what she couldn't answer to. they didn't ask her questions designed to elicit information that she hadn't otherwise provided. they asked questions to elicit emotional that would look bad on tv. they were trying to wear her down. they conceded that essentially that's what they were doing, or at least they weren't trying to get the facts. in fact, they didn't. i quoted that to secretary clinton tonight in my interview, including the um, and the several second pause before he conceded they got nothing. she had a very interesting response to that as well. >> do you think we've heard the last of -- i mean, the e-mail

thing is still out there. >> the fbi is still looking at the e-mail. >> the benghazi part of it, do you think we've heard the last of it after yesterday? >> i -- it will be interesting to see specifically what the trey gowdy competent does. they do have to produce a report at some point. i imagine it's scheduled to drop some time in late october 2016. we'll see what they do. it is hard for me to imagine that they've got something else great planned after this, as that committee. there is a whole part of the republican party, though, in the conservative movement that is literally a fund-raising operation around that tragedy. and that is designed to gin up conserve five base support and money on the -- on the backs of those americans who died and on the political furor that's been created around it. i don't think you can turn that off like a switch. but i think trey gowdy came pretty close to getting shut off like a switch last night. >> a test of this conversation on fox news today republican presidential candidate mike huckabee essentially blamed the

death of ambassador chris stevens and the other three americans in benghazi on hillary. listen closely to his logic. >> it was just fascinating that sidney blumenthal had a lot more communication with hillary clinton as secretary of state than her ambassador to libya. and you have to wonder, if she had been as willing to cooperate and communicate with chris stevens as she was sidney blumenthal and had she been as honest with the american people as she was with her own daughter and the egyptian government, would four americans be alive today? >> now, i don't know if people catch that there, but what he's saying, had she been as honest with the american people as with her husband and daughter, she's talking about e-mails that were sent after the attacks, after these four people were tragically killed. so, no matter what kind of communication she had after the fact, it will not bring them back to life. i thought that was an illustration, to me, and i think we saw this with the committee yesterday, there was a point there where trey gowdy said, there is no theory of the case. there is no theory because there's no case. at one moment jim jordan said,

actually, i have a theory of the case and he laid one out. the lack of coordination on the republican side is what surprised me most from that hearing yesterday. they really were all over the place. >> in the morning it felt like they were coordinated. in the morning it felt like everybody's got a little remit. one member of congress is talking about the absolute number of e-mails. here's a larger number of e-mails. a larger stack, a smaller stack. that was one argument. and pompeo seemed to be in charge of -- from kansas seemed to be in charge of the conspiracy they'res. he was suggesting the state department was wittingly or unwittingly essentially in cahoots with al qaeda. that was interesting. there were some later references to gun-running. like there was some sort of secret state department gun-running operation. it felt like a division of labor and it did dissolve over time. i think chairman gowdy, by being personally, i guess, in charge

of or obsessed with the sidney blumenthal factor itself led in a way that i think let people sort of go off on tangents. because if you as the chairman are signaling that sidney blumenthal e-mailing hillary clinton is essential to understanding what happened at benghazi, you're not leading in a narrowly fact-driven way. it is all about supposition. i don't know what's going to happen. i will say in terms of the -- i don't know, what is it? it's the way it looks, i think it is telling that the fox news channel stopped showing the benghazi hearing hours before it was over last night. maybe they were always going to. maybe they only had planned to cover eight hours and after that full stop. but when everybody else was still watching it and fox was like, it's time to turn this off, i think it tells you the right stopped seeing any political utility in that hearing. >> one thing we can guarantee sidney blumenthal's name identity in a poll jumped from

zero percent to 5%. >> if he wants to run for something, he has a chance. >> thank you, rachel maddow. her complete interview with hillary clinton coming up tonight at 9:00 eastern on "the rachel maddow show," tune in. coming up on our show, october was supposed to be a make or break month for hillary clinton. and after her good performance in the first debate, joe biden's decision not to challenge her and yesterday's triumph over the benghazi committee, she is looking stronger than ever. that's ahead. plus, say hello to the new front-runner in the first in the nation state of iowa. his name, dr. ben carson. carson has now surged past donald trump in two new polls thanks to the support of evangelicals. he is not stopping there. and paul ryan agrees to run for house speaker but with that unruly crowd on his right flank, is he doomed from the get go? finally, everyone loves a scoop, so stick around, as our "hardball" roundtable tells me something i don't know. that shouldn't be too hard. flay, this is "hardball," the place for politics. your moment to shine.

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carson. clinton. former rhode island govd senator lincoln chafee has now dropped his bid for the democratic presidential nomination. chafee never really gained any traction in this race. often struggling to reach 1% in national polling. he was widely panned for his debate performance last week. with chafee and former senator jim webb both dropping out this week, that leaves just hillary clinton, senator bernie sanders and former maryland governor martin o'malley in the democratic race. we'll be right back. take the zantac it challenge! pill works fast? zantac works in as little as 30 minutes. nexium can take 24 hours. when heartburn strikes, take zantac for faster relief than nexium or your money back. take the zantac it challenge.

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as some of you may know, i had a pretty long day yesterday. i am just grateful i recovered my voice, which i lost a little bit. but as i said at the start, i wanted to rise above partisanship and reach for statesmanship and that is what i tried to do.

welcome back to "hardball." that was hillary clinton today taking a victory lap after her 11-hour marathon hearing on benghazi yesterday. wasn't too long ago that october loomed as a make or break month for hillary. now through a mix of her discipline, political savvy and some lucky breaks, she has managed to run the table. the month kicked off after house majority leader kevin mccarthy described the benghazi committee as being politically motivated, dealing a major blow to clinton antagonist in the house. then clinton made a cameo on saturday night live alongside cast member kate mckinnon. she had a strong debate performance and had armistice with bernie sanders. joe biden announced he decided not to enter the democratic race. that's a move that cleared yet another major hurdle from clinton's path to the nomination. and now after emerging from

yesterday's hearing unscathed, it looked like the worst is behind her, as todd writes in politico magazine today, if in january 2017 hillary clinton is sworn in as the 45th president of the united states, historians may well point to this month as the moment her campaign turned around. i'm joined by msnbc national correspondent joy reid, chief political correspondent jon allen and heidi przybyla of "usa today." jonathan, let me start with you. that idea that in january 2017 we may be looking back at october 2015 and saying, that's when she turned it around. that's when she sealed the deal. what's the likelihood of that versus the likelihood of a month from now saying, oh, my god, it's another clinton crisis. can she survive it? >> i think both are possible. but i would say this month is the best month any presidential candidate has has had since the fall of 2008 when barack obama seized on the financial crisis and the stumbling of john mccain around that to win the

presidency. you know, you know of mr. october, reggie jackson in the baseball playoffs. i think we can call hillary clinton mrs. october now. >> joy, it is interesting. we see it in the polls. we have that poll from iowa today. she was losing in that same poll to bernie sanders in iowa. now she has a double-digit lead. there clearly has been traction from the debate. we haven't even factored in this hearing. there is this amazing confluence of events where we started out by saying, how much damage could sanders do in the primary? now i'm not hearing that talk suddenly. >> i think one of the things you have to say about hillary clinton's october is that she's finally gotten on for what the campaign will be the right side of the media narrative. the overarching narrative of the campaign is she was up by a lot nationally and then up by a little nationally, but she was always ahead in the overall scheme of things of bernie sanders. it's not as if he was overtaking her in national polls. now, in the first two primaries, i think you had particularly in more liberal states, whiter

states, quite frankly, there was a lot of shopping for the bernie sanders sort of idea of a movement. that definitely did put her down in the polls. you have to realize the other big thing that's happened for hillary clinton, it took three years for republicans to get the main stream media to focus on benghazi. they fished around several different narratives. the e-mail one is the narrative that finally caught on. so, the relentless coverage of the e-mails started to drag hr down. it became a vicious cycle for her campaign. now the media has had that balloon basically burst by the actions of the republican committee, which sort of gave itself away and held this 11-hour extraordinarily bad political theater yesterday, i think the media narrative has been punctured and punctured in her favor. >> heidi, i'm curious, we had polling from msnbc news and "wall street journal" the other day, it said people were tired of hearing about the e-mails. they said they thought she used the e-mails for personal convenience, not nefarious purposes. then they also said whenthy were

asked, was hillary clinton being honest about her e-mails? they still said no. do you think she was able to address that at all with her testimony? move that needle a bit? >> i think she had two clouds hanging over her. the e-mail cloud and the benghazi cloud. so, we're clearly moved out from beneath the benghazi cloud, but the e-mail cloud, you know, i don't think that republicans are going to drop that. will it be effect five? we don't know. we still have an open fbi investigation. and while i don't think that's going to lead to anything substantive, politically i don't think the republicans will necessarily drop that. what i do think is going to happen is that they are going to have to go somewhere else other than the benghazi committee. that's pretty clear. i think -- i would not be surprised if in the next week or so, next couple of weeks, you see republicans strongly pivoting to focusing on, for example, the clinton foundation more, to focusing on other aspects of her record, as secretary of state. because i think it's those things that are going to be more

fertile ground for them. i think benghazi is effectively dead as an issue. >> as we say, it was a day of political theater yesterday as republicans repeatedly tried to badger clinton into making some kind of an unforced error. here were some of their attempts to get her off her game. >> wouldn't you fire someone? in kansas, madame secretary, i get asked constantly, why has no one been held accountable? how come no one was held a paycheck since we had the first ambassador killed since 1979? >> so far i've heard since we've been together today, i've heard one dismisses ive thing after another. it was this group, i wasn't served by this, i wasn't served by that. >> hold on real quick. of course it was an attack. >> well, it shortly -- >> we want the truth. >> did you ever personally speak to him after you swore him in in may? >> i believe -- >> yes or no, please. >> yes, i believe we did.

we have ambassadors we send to places that have been bombed and attacked all the time. >> and you're their boss, is that right? >> you're right i am. >> you had two ambassadors that made several, several requests. and here's basically what happened to their requests. they were torn up. >> no one ever came to me and said, we should shut down our compound in benghazi. >> i'm not saying shut it down. i'm saying, protect it. >> well -- >> i'm not saying -- i'm not saying shut it down. i'm just saying protect it. >> right. >> you know, jonathan, i think what we learned, at least me when i was looking at the last week, because i was reminded of how good hillary clinton is in adversarial settings. i thought back to the debates against barack obama in 2007, 2008. we remember he won the nomination, but i think we forget, she probably got the better of him in all those debates. we watched that debate against bernie sanders, very well-received performance there. yesterday to go through that for

8 1/2 hours, she was unflappable yesterday. i think the bigger significance in this is you think ahead to the fall of 2016, what republicans out there who can stand up on the stage with her in those prime time nationally televised debates and actually get her off her game? >> i think you're absolutely right about that, steve. i was trying to think yesterday, which other presidential candidate do i think could sit there for 11 hours, 9 hours of testimony with some breaks and actually answer questions over such a broad array of issues and in such deep detail and keep their can composure like that? i don't think anyone on the democratic or republican side could do that. i think republicans made her look more presidential yesterday not less presidential. she was also able to answer questions republicans have been hanging out there for a while. i think inadvertently they let her ask the question, was she too old to be president of the united states, there was the question of whether her conclusion hurt her

significantly. karl rove raised that at some point. i think she was able to not just answer the benghazi questions, the e-mail question, but larger questions republicans have been throwing out there against her and, again, looked much more presidential after yesterday's hearing and during yesterday's hearing than she did before. >> joy, you were talking about this a minute ago, but how clear do you think the path is for her right now to the democratic nomination? a few weeks ags the potential was, you lose a few early states. it's embarrassing, if nothing else, even if she has a firewall later on. is it much clearer now? >> it is clear it's a two-way race with bernie sanders and in that case the demographics are overwhelmingly on hillary clinton's side. whether she can excite the non-white demographics in the general selection a whole other question. but if you just look at the primary itself, because hillary clinton has such an advantage with african-americans, latinos over bernie sanders, unless he can close that ethnic gap and change the composition of his base, i think she gets to sk, sk

and the big tuesday states where she has lots and lots of money and places like ohio and then her advantage is so overwhelm g overwhelming, it would be extraordinary for bernie sanders to overcome it. >> i think it was the stat of the week in south carolina. there was a poll, her lead over bernie sanders among black voters was 77 points. when i saw that, wow, that tells you a story. joy reid, jon allen, heidi przybilla. coming up, the doctor is in. watch out, donald trump, because ben carson has come from behind to take the first place position in two iowa polls now. what that means for trump and the rest of the gop field. that is next. this is "hardball," the place for politics. ushes us to go fur. special olympics has almost five million athletes in 170 countries. the microsoft cloud allows us to immediately be able to access information, wherever we are. information for an athlete's medical care, or information to track their personal best. with microsoft cloud, we save millions of man hours,

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you're not gonna develop stuff anymore? no i am... do you know what ge is? plan well and enjoy life... ♪ or, as we say at unitedhealthcare insurance company, go long. how you plan is up to you. take healthcare. make sure you're covered for more than what just medicare pays... consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company... the only medicare supplement plans that carry the aarp name, and the ones that millions of people trust year after year. always have a plan. plan well. enjoy life. go long. i'm meteorologist bill karins. hurricane patricia made landfall as category 5 storm. one little piece of good news is the winds at landfall dropped to 165 miles per hour. it was at its peak earlier today at 200-mile-an-hour winds. for the record books, this means

it is not the strongest storm ever to make landfall on our planet. that honor still goes to the philippines, that made landfall with 190-mile-an-hour winds. thankfully for the coastal areas, still devastating whoever goes through the small eye of this storm, but we're not going to be looking at the catastrophic, you know, 200-mile-an-hour winds in a wide area. it's a really narrow and it did drop about 35 to 40-mile-an-hour winds. where did it make landfall? where is the worst devastation taking place right now? this is where the eye is, over perula, 661 people, a small fishing people along the coast, all of these people are hopefully gone and a lot will not look the same when it's done. that's who went through the eye. down the coast, things have improved. it's a better forecast from le manzanillo, a little further away from the eye wall. they got damage and still have

bad winds in these areas, definitely power outages but not seeing the extreme damage. for everyone with interest there, i was very concerned. look at the shape of this cove here. further south down the coast. those areas look to have been spared the worst. the worst is definitely further north. now the big question is, what's going to happen in puerto vallarta throughout the evening. at landfall, 165-mile-an-hour winds, and one of the strongest storms in north american history. it's not going to be classified as the strongest ever to make landfall in our recorded history. so, now the question is, with this path, how close is it going to get to puerto vallarta? if it takes a path more to the mountains and hooks right, that will be less of an impact. so far where the landfall actually took place is one of the least populated locations on the entire coast is between puerto vallarta and manzanillo. that's one good piece of good news. it avoided the city centers, made landfall and will weaken quickly from here.

we'll find out in the next 6 to 12 hours how bad an impact in puerto vallarta. now back to "hardball." ♪ i feel the same as i felt yesterday. i'm gratified by the fact that so many people are really paying attention to what i'm saying. because none of those things i'm saying are wild, crazy things. they are very logical things. and if people really sat down and thought about them rather than allowing themselves to be whipped into a frenzy, i think most people would say, hey, that makes sense. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was republican presidential candidate ben carson in kansas today, reacting to his new front-runner status in iowa. carson has ridden a surge in support from evangelicals to break donald trump's three-month streak atop the polls in that

state. yesterday the quinnipiac poll had carson opening up an eight-point lead over trump in iowa. carson, 28%, trump, 20%. rubio at 13%. kroousz at 10%. everyone else in single digits. today another poll, this one from the dmo register, the gold standard of iowa polling, and it puts carson 28%, trump 19%, cruz 10% and everyone else in single digits. carson's surge comes as part of trump's campaign is apologizing, you heard me right on that, apologizing for insulting iowa voters. yesterday trump retweeted, quote, ben carson is now leading the polls in iowa. too much monsanto in the corn creates issues in the brain? trump then disavowed that retweet saying the young intern who accidentally did a retweet apologizes. "hardball" roundtable tonight, eugene robinson is a pulitzer prize winning columnist with "the washington post," erin mcpike is a political reporter

with reuters and matt sh lap with the aclu. maybe you can go on the record and tell us, all tweets you put out there on your own. matt schlapp, let me start with you on this question of ben carson and the evangelical vote in iowa. in these caucuses, the evangelical vote is 60% of all votes cast in the iowa caucuses. looking at this wave of support that carson's developed now, we've been asking, how do we understand ben carson's support? is this how we understand is it? is he the logical successor to pat robertson, mike huckabee, rick santorum? is that who he is? >> yes. if you look at this poll, what's very clear is the second highest character trait that registers for ben carson is he's a man of faith. the other one is he seems to have common sense solutions. and the third dynamic that's in this poll, steve, is republicans really want to try a different type of person. 60% of these republicans are saying they want to throw out the old model.

they want a new model for a new candidate. >> well, gene, how -- if that is the mold that carson is kind of fitting in here, the one thing that huckabee and robertson and santorum all have in common, they all did well in iowa, two of them won it and one came in a surprising second. they all couldn't build on that and win the nomination. is there a ceiling here with ben ben carson? are we in such a different universe now that this guy could go further than iowa? >> given the way the polls are this year, i'm reluctant to declare a feeling for anybody, so we don't know. but my guess is that iowa is different. it's certainly different from new hampshire. it's different from my home state of south carolina where there are a lot of evangelicals, evangelicals who are a big part of the republican coalition, yet those kinds of candidates tend not to win in south carolina. however, this is not a year in

which past is necessarily prologceed prologue so who knowf this is a launching pad for ben carson or not. my guess is it won't be but he might win iowa. >> steve, if i can add to that, too, iowa is still 100 days away. his support may very well be soft. he's only been to iowa once since the first debate. he's now on his book tour. we're seeing ted cruz build a lot more slowly and a lot morsteadly, and it could very well be that somebody like ted cruz can overtake ben carson at the end of the day in iowa. >> no, i think a great point there. i think the two to keep an eye on we're not talking about in iowa right now are cruz and rubio. each one positioned poernlly potentially if carson stumbles here to move ahead and have a surge much their own. as i mentioned in iowa, roughly 6 in 10 caucus attendees identify with evangelicals. let's take a look at trump's rhetoric when it comes to god

and marriage. >> have you ever asked god for forgiveness? >> i'm not sure i have. i just go and try and do a better job from there. i don't think so. when i drink my little wine, which is about the only wine i drink, and have my little cracker, i guess that's a form of asking for foregiveness. i do that as often as possible because i feel cleansed. >> i'm traditional marriage. >> donald trump, what's traditional about being married three times? >> well, they have a very good time. i'm for traditional marriage. >> hold that book up, please. okay. one of the great ones. that's my second favorite book of all times. do you know what my first is? the bible! >> i'm wondering what one or two of your most favorite bible versions are and why. >> i wouldn't want to get into it because it's very personal to me. when i talk to the bible, it's very personal. the bible is very personal and i don't to want get into

specifics. >> the same "des moines register" poll found only 32% of likely republican caucus goers in iowa say they think donald trump is a committed christian. matt, i'm curious, you know, donald trump is right now second place in iowa when it comes to evangelical christians. carson surged into the lead with evangelical christians but trump is getting about 20% from them. is it only a matter of time from comments of the litany we just played, is it only a matter of time when that number fades out for him? >> what it really means in the poll, that 32% is a real key thing you just brought up, is he has room to grow with evangelical christians if they believe his faith really helps him make these decisions. the other issue that he's bringing up, which is just ingenious, is this idea that, hey, i'm going to bring merry christmas back again. when we go to macy's it's all happy holidays. i wonder if he's making santa

hat saying, making christmas great again. >> talking about the little cracker and all this stuff, if hard-core religious vers won't see right through that. you know, he's got 20% with them anyway. the roundtable is sticking with me. still ahead, is paul ryan's speakership doomed before it even begins? gene robinson thinks so and he's explain why coming up next on "hardball," the place for politics. r medicare part d prescriptions. at walgreens, we call that "carpe med diem." that's almost latin for "seize the day to get more out of life and medicare part d." from one-dollar copays on select plans... ...to now reward points on all prescriptions, walgreens has you covered. so drop by and seize the savings! walgreens. at the corner of happy and healthy. can a a subconscious. mind? a knack for predicting the future.

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aaron peskin has been a champion for the middle class, fighting bad growth and income inequality. and mayor ed lee has transformed san francisco into the nation's most thriving city. vote peskin/lee. san francisco needs them both. aaron peskin for supervisor and ed lee for mayor -- the perfect balance for a better san francisco. welcome back to "hardball." it's been one month of chaos and confusion for republicans in congress since house speaker john boehner announced his intent to resign. the party then rejected the speaker in waiting, kevin mccarthy, leaving just congressman paul ryan as the only republican in congress with enough clout to take the job. but he didn't want the job.

some outside observers believed it would be a suicide mission. ryan laid out his demands for the job. last night he made it official by telling his colleagues, yes, after all that, he will go ahead and run for the job. quote, i'm actually excited for this moment, he said, after talking with so many of you and hearing your words of encouragement, i believe we are ready to move forward as a one, united team. ryan is walking into a divided party driven by election year forces. back with the "hardball" roundtable, eugene robinson, who declared in "the washington post" that ryan is doomed, and erin mcpike and matt schlapp. gene, let me start with you. let me play devil's advocate here. i understand, you know, any republican speaker of the house is eventually going to have to keep the government open and eventually going to have to keep the country from defaulting on its debt so that would mean cutting a deal and risks the wrath of the right. that befell john boehner and presumably any republican speaker would walk into.

we're talking about paul ryan, the anti-obama budget, the big obama era conservative. doesn't he have more credibility with the hard core base of the party that he can go to them and say, guys, we've got to do this? >> well, he certainly has a lot of credibility as a republican intellectual in congress, as the architect of a budget that republicans in congress generally admire and support. but there is the arithmetic. the arithmetic is pretty basic. he apparently in his conversations with the freedom caucus, he said that he's going to stick to the hastert rule. majority of a majority of the majority has to support any legislation that he brings to the floor. and that puts him essentially in the same basic position that john boehner was in. he's got to deal with 40 or so members of the republican caucus who are, you know, who don't want to do -- don't want to

cooperate in governing and don't want to compromise with democrats. and, so, in the end he's going to have to find the votes from somewhere. i don't see how this works out well for him. >> well -- >> erin, how long do you think this goes for? i mean, is this an interim deal that takes you through the 2016 election and then he's out of there or is this a long-term thing? what do you think? >> we'll see how he does. i think people are miscasting this a little bit saying he made all of these demands and then he caved. what he did was really a stroke of genius. he set a high bar and then he negotiated. i think he set a road map for how he's going to be working with his conference over time, that in every negotiation he goes into, he's going to set a bartha they won't meet and he knows that, and so he can come down a little bit. i think he handled the situation just right. >> matt, we're short on time in this segment, but i want to get to you. paul ryan as the speaker beyond 2016, is this an interim speaker or a long-term speaker we're

looking at here? >> look, republican leadership in the house usually does not end well and doesn't last long. gingrich lasted four years. john boehner lasted about the same time. we don't keep them around in the republican house, but if anybody can make it work, it's paul ryan. >> the roundtable is staying with us. up next, scoops and predictions from these three when they tell me something i don't know. this is "hardball," the place for politics. my sister raves about her toothpaste and mouthwash all the time. i'm like, huh? aren't they all the same? you know, i had to see for myself.

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we are back. time now for the "hardball" round table, to tell me something i don't know. i love this segment. we are setting the bar low here, but matt, go ahead. tell me something i don't know. >> okay. in the month of october dr. carson will raise over $10 million, which is about half of what hillary clinton raised in the previous three months. it's a big number. >> and erin, how about you? what do i not know? >> well, as jeb bush's operatives are prospecting for new donors, they are trashing marco rubio, saying that he's inexperienced, saying he's an absentee freshman, even asking can you imagine him in a one on one with vladimir putin. so the gloves are off there. >> that is really interesting too when you consider the relationship between the two of them going back to florida and now it's come to this if bush is going to survive he's going to have to knock out rubio. it's very interesting. eugene, something i don't know. >> 2015 so far is the hottest year on record since recordkeeping began. i say this as one of the most

powerful hurricanes we've ever seen strikes the mexican coast. you might know this, steve, but i say it just in case some republican candidates might be listening who don't know it. climate change is real. >> we have him in here. let me follow up on that. that's an interesting point. is that something -- do you expect it will be any different this time around in terms of how that issue's addressed on the republican side? it has not really come up in these debates. is that going to change at all? >> i don't think it will. whoever -- whichever candidate emerges is going to have to engage in the general election on the issue of climate change. i don't see it being an issue in the republican primaries because they all agree, hey, what's the problem? >> hey, steve, bring it on. >> what do you mean? >> i just mean look, we have a very weak economy and let's bring on the fact that all these regulations would make energy prices twice as high and get rid of manufacturing jobs. i think it's a bad strategy for the democrats. >> i think that answers the question. we're not going to hear the republicans address it any

differently than we've been hearing it. but i love that segment, chris used to do that in his sunday show. you guys all told me something i didn't know. of course if you'd said anything about art or math that would have worked too. but anyway, thank you all. my round table for tonight, eugene robinson, erin mcpike, matt schlapp, and "hardball" is back after this. kid: do you pay him? dad: of course. kid: how much? dad: i don't know exactly. kid: what if you're not happy? does he have to pay you back? dad: nope. kid: why not? dad: it doesn't work that way. kid: why not? vo: are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed? wealth management at charles schwab the has unlimited access is thatto information,tion no matter where they are. the microsoft cloud gives our team the power to instantly deliver critical information to people, whenever they need it.

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benghazi hearings yesterday. and it's coming up one hour from now. 9:00 eastern time. here on msnbc. chris matthews will be back monday. and right now it's time for "all in" with chris hayes. tonight on "all in" -- >> it's been quite a week, hasn't it? >> hillary clinton having the time of her campaign. successfully thwarting the benghazi committee. >> don't call that witness? >> i really don't care what you all say about me. it doesn't bother me a bit. >> tonight, how conservatives are spinning what happened on the hill. then, a year after the ebola panic, and nurse kasey hickox imprisoned in a tent. >> i have been asymptom mick since i've been here. >> she's suing governor christie. >> i've been sued lots of times before. >> reporter: kaci hickox will join me tonight. plus jeb bush cuts his campaign payroll by 40%. donald trump slu