average person says he's running because his dad was president and his brother was president. that's what's going on in houston reenforces that. beth and ozzie, thank you for joining us today. chuck will be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily" and richard wolffe picks up our coverage next. now on msnbc live, donald trump targets ben carson and his religion as two new polls show it's carson who has the momentum. plus -- >> i've got a lot of really cool things i can do other than sit around being miserable listening to people demonize me and me feeling compelled to demonize them. >> did we hear jeb bush hinting at his exit strategy as his campaign restructures. >> bernie sanders ramping up his rhetoric against hillary clinton. >> i think bernie sanders seemed to have a course correction in the j.j. dinner which he said he

wasn't going to go negative to obviously focusing his fire on her. >> hello, i'm richard wolffe. we start with ben carson. he's the new 2016 front-runner, at least in iowa, where the first votes will be cast in less than 100 days. carson holds a commanding 14 point lead over donald trump in a new monmouth poll among iowa republican caucus goers. another iowa poll shows carson nine points up over trump. even in a best-case scenario for trump, they are now tied in another poll trump once led by four points. at an nbc news town hall this morning, donald trump dismissed those numbers as if they mean nothing. >> iowa is a problem all of a sudden. you've fallen behind ben carson why? >> i don't believe i've fallen behind. there were small polls. i was in iowa three days ago. we had a town hall unbelievable. it was packed. thousands of people standing

outside. >> one poll said the des moines register. >> that is a terrible paper as far as i'm concerned. really is. very liberal paper. >> he's not pulling punches going right after the biggest challenger's religion this weekend. >> i'm presbyterian. boy, that's down the middle of the road, folks, in all fairness. i mean seventh day adventist, i just don't know about. >> carson demanded an apology. trump says he has nothing to be sorry for. >> some conservatives claim seventh day adventists are not christian. were you trying to send a dog whistle to them because ben carson is beating new iowa? >> no, not at all. nationwide i'm beating ben with evangelicals. i just don't know about that particular religion. >> ben carson asked for an apology. >> i didn't say anything bad about it. i don't know about it.

i would give an apology if i said something bad about it, but i didn't. all i said was i don't know about it. >> of course dr. carson has his own set of problems to deal with. on "meet the press" this weekend he compared women who seek abortions to slave owners. >> what if somebody has an unwanted pregnancy. should they have the right to terminate? >> slavery, a lot of slave owners thought they had the right to do whatever they wanted to that slave. what if the abolitionists said i don't believe in slavery, you do whatever you want to do. where would we be? >> is he his own worst enemy? was it a good or bad day for ben carson? go to pulse.msnbc.com to weigh in. keep voting through the show. we are going to share the results as we go along. bring in political strategists.

the good news for carson is clearly the polls. the bad news is he's got trump bringing him down. let's put 30 seconds on the clock and start with angela. was it a good or bad day for ben carson? >> i think it was a great day for ben carson. it's probably one of the best his campaign will see going through this cycle. we've seen other things happen for candidates doing well in iowa in the polls. these things change on a weekly basis. he's doing well. i'm confident that ben carson will once again put his foot in his mouth. unfortunately, words stick to him more than they do to teflon don. >> just in time. the polls then are better than "meet the press." let's go to robert. 30 seconds on the clock. good or bad day for ben carson? >> good carson is getting national attention but bad because he's risen because of

his calm temperament and appeal to evangelicals. getting dragged into a long brutal war against trump, at least this week, is not a politically viable or great position for carson to be in. i think it's a mix review. >> you've got to tell me, good or bad day. no middle ground here, robert. >> i think bad. he is going to go to the debate and trump will go right at him. >> thank you. susan, 30 seconds for you. good day or bad day for ben carson? >> i agree with angela. i think it was a very good day. when you're leading in the polls on something like this, it's a great day for you. it may only last a day or week, but take what you can get. the first time he overtook trump with men. now he's up 11 points. that's huge. his favorables still keep going

up. that's with people just still getting to know him. >> okay. that's two goods and one bad day. robert, i want to play something from chuck todd's interview on "meet the press." ben carson stuck with some strange language that he's been using. let's listen to chuck and ben carson now. >> why do you so easily go to nazi metaphors? a lot of times the minute you talk about the nazis or the holocaust, people stop listening. >> interestingly enough, the last several weeks i heard from many people in the jewish community, including rabbis who said you're spot on. you are exactly right. some of the people in your business, quite frankly, like to try to stir things up. and try to make this into a big horrible thing. >> he seems to be saying some of his best friends are rabbis. that's got to be a bad day. >> there is a current running through the republican party

that embraces apocalyptic rhetoric. you see it with carson especially and some of these deeply red states. they are attracted to a candidate who talks in stark terms. carson's giving them the message they want different than the republican party establishment. >> angela, let's pick up on that language. it's not the first time ben carson has been using this. we stitched together some of his more extreme comments because he does come back to them a few times. let's listen to what he's been saying. >> obamacare is really, i think, the worst thing that has happened in this nation since slavery. it is slavery. we live in a gestapo age. think about nazi germany, most those people did not believe in what hitler was doing. did they speak up? if you believe that the same thing can't happen again, you're

very wrong. >> when you hear things like this, i've got to think, it's a better day for ben carson when he doesn't give interviews. >> yeah. 100%. one thing i'm thinking with all the money his campaign is spending, who is controlling the message? they should quickly tell ben carson there are a few words he needs to steer clear from, period. especially in this upcoming debate. the first is holocaust. the second is nazis. the third is hitler and the fourth is slavery. he needs to find a whole new line of analogies he can use. he sounds crazy. the other thing he said with great regularity, he said most recently is well people agree with me because they don't think that deeply. i don't want a commander in chief that can't critically think and come up with deep concepts and make them common sense to the american people. stop using these terms and analogy. >> these comments helped him in his fund-raising. if we pull up the fund-raising numbers from the third quarter. ben carson is blowing out the

rest of the crowd here. $20.8 million. he is spending $7 and $10, his burn rate is high. 50 cents of every dollar goes to fund-raising costs. who knows what his haul will be in the fourth quarter. >> the fund-raising is done through direct mail. people are hearing from ben carson in a selective manner. that's the other thing while he is very familiar with the folks watching now, a lot of people still don't know a lot about ben carson. i believe like donald trump and ben carson, time is not on their side. as they get vetted and challenged, we'll have these conversations. people will start waking up to it. >> it's a bit different for donald trump. his poll numbers, he's had decades of celebrity. the public's knowledge of trump is much deeper than carson's. when you talk to trump's

campaign, they believe carson support is transitory. it could move toward trump if only trump can pummel him enough. >> the problem with trump is everyone knows who donald trump is. now he's losing ground to ben carson. so ben carson has more room to grow than donald trump does because everyone has an opinion of him. he has been out there for so many years. >> to that point, last word for you, a favorable and unfavorable ratings, ben carson, donald trump. the big difference between them is these unfavorable ratings. you could say many people don't know ben carson and maybe people know donald trump and a lot of them don't like him. >> you can. all i will say is the night is still young. there is a lot of time left in this election. iowa, i hate to say this, no shade to iowans, it's not normally the predictor. president obama won iowa, but i think that is not a good testing ground for the republicans.

i'm sorry. >> i'll tell all the folks in iowa what your e-mail is after the show. thank you so much. go to pulse.msnbc.com. was it a good or bad day for ben carson? so far just 16% say it was a good day. 84% of you say it was a bad day. chuck todd wins that one. the one thing most 2016 candidates are not talking about but affects everyone. also ahead, jeb bsh restructures his campaign and leans on his family for help. critics say there is something else that may reveal the future of his campaign. first, fact-checking donald trump. was he really responsible for stopping ford from building a plant in mexico?ed . when a wildfire raged through elkhorn ranch, the sudden loss of pasture became a serious problem for a family business. faced with horses that needed feeding and a texas drought that sent hay prices soaring, the owners had to act fast.

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the week has only just begun and presidential hopeful donald trump wasted no time doing what he does best, boasting about himself. the gop front-runner went on

twitter sunday evening to announce a major victory in a series of tweets. he claimed because of his continued criticism on the campaign trail, the ford motor company has halted plans to build a $2.5 billion factory in mexico and instead would move it to ohio. this morning at the "today" show town hall he doubled down on those comments. >> mexico took a ford plant. i've been tough on the ford. you heard me talking about ford. i heard last night ford is moving back to the united states. they may not do that here. i get credit for that. i should get credit for that. >> unfortunately for mr. trump, there's just one problem. he's dead wrong. a spokesman told "the washington post" ford is still building a massive facility in mexico and ford is already doing work in ohio. a statement from the company confirmed that in 2011, ford decided to move some production work to ohio long before any candidate announced their intention to run for president. sunday night, ohio governor and gop rival john kasich tried to

correct trump tweeting, nope. together ohio brought ford back from mexico. and our country needs real leadership and not empty, false rhetoric. late this afternoon, the trump campaign said, "mr. trump continues to emphasize the importance of bringing jobs back to the united states. he was merely using the story of the ford factory now located in ohio to reenforce the importance of this issue he discusses often." maybe trump needs to check his facts before he declares victory in his next tweet. plaque psoriasis... ...isn't it time to let the... ...real you shine... ...through? introducing otezla, apremilast. otezla is not an injection, or a cream. it's a pill that treats plaque psoriasis differently. some people who took otezla saw 75% clearer skin after 4 months. and otezla's prescribing information has no requirement

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bush said i don't like mr. trump's tone. so he's meeting now with mom and dad. no, it's true. he needs council. he was angry over the week. he said, you know, if this is going to be this nasty, let them have trump as their president. it's going to be nasty. >> donald trump this morning taking another swing at jeb bush. it was a response to bush lashing out at him and the election process, expressing frustration during a south carolina town hall saturday. >> if this election is about how we're going to fight to get nothing done, i don't want any part of it. i don't want to be elected president to sit around and see gridlock become so dominant that people are literally in decline in their lives. that is not my motivation. i've got a lot of really cool things i can do other than sit around being miserable listening to people demonize me and me

feeling compelled to demonize them. that is a joke. elect trump if you want that. >> that came on heels of the report his campaign was slashing staff and salaries to concentrate efforts on early voting states. joining me are democratic political consultant and syndicated columnist jason stanford and "the washington post" dana milbank. i want to start with a quote from an anonymous k street. the patient is in intensive care or being put into hospice and which are going to see a slow death. i don't know that k street lobbyists were hostile to jeb bush. that is not a good sign, is it? >> no, i think that was identified as bush supporter. that isn't the first anonymous horrible quote i read over the

weekend from a bush supporter about how bad the campaign is. i think another quote referred to a death spiral. he started out saying he wanted to run a joyful campaign and run as his own man. after spending the weekend with his folks trying to resurrect this campaign, i think he failed on both counts. >> let's listen to what jeb bush says about people like us talking about his campaign being in trouble. we've got that sound now. >> bush is falling apart. >> blah, blah, blah. >> you know what they're saying. >> that's my answer, blah, blah, blah. watch it. president kean was winning the republican primary in 2007. senator clinton was up by 25 points against an unknown guy named barack obama eight years ago. i think president giuliani was leading the field for a brief time more or less the same time.

so you look at the race. october is not when you elect people. it's february. >> dana, as we know from the campaign trail, the bush family has a certain way with words. blah, blah, blah is not one i'm familiar with. is that a good press strategy or good debate strategy? >> blah, blah, blah. >> thank you. >> it's a fine analogy, but the problem is bush is the guy who was in first place and collapsed. yes, the analogy works, but he's in the wrong spot of it as the reason people are talking about death spirals. this is i got who had umpteen millions and had a commanding lead in the polls and it fell apart. i'm not going to count jeb bush out. it's hard to imagine running a worst campaign than he has run so far. if he attacks donald trump it doesn't work. if he lays back, it doesn't work. the trump critic clearly stuck he has no energy. he doesn't seem to have the passion. that's why the quote over the weekend is so devastating. it just suggests if you're not

going to do it the way i like it, i'll take my ball and go home. voters don't want to hear that. they want somebody who will fight for them. >> or look like they are enjoying being out there. swr at the bush family meeting, george w. bush made this prediction about his brother. jeb is going to win because he's a fierce competitor which is a key ingredient to winning this thing. does the bush family competitive drive carry jeb through? does it give him higher energy? >> no. what carries him through to the end is the rest of the republican field. if not jeb, who? i don't know anyone who does this for a living who thinks ben carson or donald trump will be there in the end? some think rebound go -- some think rubio could, but when will he raise the money? there is not someone who raised as much money as he does and has

a claim on a significant part of the primary electorate. jeb can come back. he's still got two big things going against him, his last name which is an anathema. he's got most of the republican primary electorate against him because of immigration and education. those aren't going away. >> let's pick up on the money. he spent a lot of money, jeb bush spent $10.7 million, double john kasich who spent $5 million. all these people haven't got much to show for this. $10.7 million from jeb bush, you would think he would be doing better in the polls. >> no. it's getting worse and worse for him. it is true a lot of people still, even though all evidence is that trump maintains where he is and then you have carson neck and neck with him, there is a

suspicion that the republicans will not be so stupid has to hand the election to the democrats by nominating one of these guys. it's harder to see how jeb gets ahead there. there needs to be some consolidation. he is not at all going in the right direction here. you can see from his temperament when you're feeling good about your campaign, you don't have an outburst like that. >> despite that exclamation point, the energy and competition isn't quite there yet. thank you for tonight. >> thanks, richard. still ahead, the link between bacon, hot dogs and cancer. what it has to do with the 2016 presidential election. >> first, the reason why joe biden decided not to run for president. you're watching msnbc. ♪

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if i thought we could have put together the campaign that our supporters deserved and our contributors deserved, i would

have gone out and done it. >> were you disappointed or relieved? >> no. i think i was disappointed. i mean i thought joe would be a great president. >> that was vice president joe biden and his wife jill on "60 minutes" discussing the proverbial door closing and passing on a white house run. it's one of the political topics getting a lot of buzz on social media. just how much buzz joe biden is getting today? >> joe biden after that "60 minutes" interview is getting social media chatter in the last 24 hours. he's been mentioned about 23,000 times on twitter. there is a lot of positive feedback in response to this interview. he was very vulnerable, emotional talking about sort of his grief after his son passed away, and how his family is processing that grief. a lot of people on social media, his words resonated with them. and that vulnerability was very appealing. >> is that his tweet or "60 minutes" on the top there?

>> that's during the "60 minutes" interview. the peak is during the interview. it stayed pretty steady throughout today. >> we jumped to guns. a lot of talk about guns on social media. >> a lot of gun-related chatter on both sides of the aisle. one thing is ted cruz. this is one of the top candidate, 2016 candidate facebook posts today. a photo of him at what looks like a shooting range. he says i enjoy defending the second amendment, but exercising it is fun, too. his fans were into this. this is playing to his audience on social media of his fans who many of them are very vocal gun rights advocates really enjoyed this. >> not the only people talking about guns. >> nope. senator chuck schumer and actress amy schumer today announced their new gun violence campaign. amy schumer has been speaking out on gun violence since there was a shooting in a movie theater during the screening of

her recent film "train wreck." they used a couple of hashtag, enough is enough and the hashtag aiming for change, which has been mentioned about 4,000 times since they announced it today. >> "the new york times" weighed in here. >> yes. "the new york times" has an op-ed today called a concealed carry fantasy. this topic has been trending on twitter all day today. a lot of people sharing this op-ed. it came out very strongly against concealed carry laws that would allow concealed weapons, especially on campuses. a lot of people sharing that and talking about it on both sides of the issue. >> not in the headlines, but a lot of activity on social media around guns. >> yes. >> thank you. >> thanks, richard. let's look at the results of today's binge pulse question. was it a good or bad day for ben carson? it's skewed. 9% say it was a good day. 91% say a bad day. please keep voting at home. still ahead, bernie sanders

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taken by millions since 2001. vo: ask your health care provider about adding novolog®. it can help provide the additional control you may need. senator bernie sanders may be shifting strategy in his insurgent campaign against hillary clinton. in the past, sanders has never run a negative campaign ad and has never attacked hillary clinton personally until now. at the jefferson jackson dinner in iowa on saturday, he directed his fire away from big corporations and towards clinton's policy and her past. >> now today, some are trying to rewrite history by saying they voted for one anti-gay law to stop something worse. that's not the case. there was a small minority in the house opposed to discriminating against our gay brothers and sisters and i am

proud that i was one of those members. >> that line was a clear shot at what hillary clinton had to say to rachel maddow friday evening. >> on defense of marriage, i think what my husband believed and there was evidence to support it is that there was enough political momentum to amend the constitution of the united states of america. and that there had to be some way to stop that. >> all this comes as a new cbs/ugov poll shows sanders surpassing clinton in new hampshire. good evening. steve, i want to start out with you here with john podesta

talking to abc about sanders and this strategy. >> i think bernie sanders seemed to have a course correction in the j.j. dinner from one which he said he wasn't going to go negative to obviously focusing his fire on her. >> is that fair or was it a different tone? >> i think it's a candidate bernie sanders who recognizes the political gravity changed a little bit since hillary clinton's strong performance in that first debate, since her appearance before the benghazi committee. there are a lot of activists, voters want influential people in the party who have taken another new look at hillary clinton. now they can see her as their general election candidate. in some ways they are excited about her as their general election candidate. there are doubts about her as a general election candidate have been eased a little bit. that's taken the air out for sanders. >> does it hurt the bernie brand if he goes negative? >> that is the dilemma he faces here. he brags about he has never run

a negative ad in his life. will i sound like another attack dog politician? the exact thing he defined himself not being throughout his career he risks becoming. that was why that moment in that debate when he stood up for her on e-mails was unique and classic. >> i want to listen to what hillary clinton said at the j.j. dinner. she kind of refers to what bernie has been saying about gun control. >> i've been told to stop shouting about ending gun violence. well, i haven't been shouting, but sometimes when a woman speaks out some people think it's shouting. >> is she going after him around this idea of sexism? >> i'm not sure about if that is directed at bernie sanders. that might be mixing a couple of different things into one. certainly gun control. that is one issue she has the lean to his left on gun control.

it jumped out at me at the first debate. she went out of her way to draw that contrast with sanders. she went on the attack against him. we walked into that first debate saying hillary clinton will wait, if attacked she will respond. she is not going to start fights. she came to the debate and went after sanders pro aactively on guns. >> i didn't know it was a reference to what bern i said until my great producers here dug up this sound from bernie sanders. listen to this. >> what i was saying is if we are going to make some progress dealing with these horrific massacres we are seeing is that people have got to start all over this country talking to each other. that's not hillary clinton. you have some people shouting and other people all across this country. you know that. this nation is divided on this issue. >> some people who are shouting at other people all across the

country. >> there is much more -- that is very much on the same level of joe biden suddenly talking in the week before he made his announcement how republicans aren't his enemies. now he says that wasn't a reference to hillary clinton. we are on the same level with that one now that i heard that. >> i think we have a problem bringing in ryan. let me ask this last question about bernie sanders bringing in the howard dean pollster. bernie sanders bringing in a pollster. again, is this a sign he's got the money, he can build up a campaign or is bernie sanders sort of changing as we go on here? >> it's interesting. if you talk to his strategist, and i talked to him before the campaign started, he was telling me this is going to be a struggle. i have to fight as a political strategist trying to run the campaign of somebody who hates the idea of public opinion polling, hates paying for pollsters. he was saying, my case is at some point we have to run ads in this campaign. if you run ads in this day and

age, i've got to deal with an audience of 310 million people, whatever the exact population is. find ways to target the people who are going to vote in the primary. the sanders campaign will tell you, that's all this means. it means they are going to use the polls to direct their advertising in specific places. it's different than having a pollster who is going to tell what you to say on any given issue. that's their defense on it. >> thank you, steve. my apologies to ryan. we had technical problems. tune in at 9:00 p.m., he will be talking to rachel maddow on nbc tonight. americans are demanding a change in food policy and looking to hold the 2016 candidates accountable. how will they do it? >> plus, a startling revelation from former british prime minister tony blair. what's he admitting? could it influence american politics? derate to severe rheumatoid arthritis like me, and you're talking to your rheumatologist about a biologic... this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my pain

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looking below the surface, researching a hunch... and making a decision you are type e*. time for a change of menu. research and invest from any website. with e*trade's browser trading. e*trade. opportunity is everywhere. now for unappetizing news. a new study from the world held organization says processed meat like bacon and hot dogs causes cancer. the research on cancer says red meat including beef, pork and lamb is likely to cause cancer. it recommends limiting how much meat you eat. the news is shocking but not entirely unexpected. evidence has been building for years that eating meat raises the risk of cancer. but does america have an appetite for change? maybe.

a new national survey of 2016 voters shows americans want a better food policy from their government on everything from making healthy food affordable to limiting government subsidies to the largest farm businesses to encouraging sustainable farming. voters on all sides are hungry for a better diet and want to hear more about where the 2016 candidates stand. msnbc food correspondent and renowned chef tom kolicio joins me now. >> i want to start out with a couple of numbers from this survey. 53% said too many americans cannot afford healthy food. 75% favor incentives to promote sustainable farming. this isn't a fringe issue any more, is it? >> it's totally mainstream. healthy food is too expensive.

people are concerned about what they're feeding their children. they are concerned about pesticides and concerned about harmful toxins that are in food. they want to see change. it's not surprising at all to see this. it is really great that we finally have numbers that we can put to some of these issues so it's not just finger in the air and we feel a certain way about this. >> i'm not sure how many people understand this. when you took this issue to the people in the survey, a lot of concerns, 81% said there were concerns that the federal government recommends a diet of 50% fruit and vegetables, but gives less than 1% of farm subsidies to fruits and vegetables. 81% are concerned the subsidies are going to the wrong place. that's shocking. >> right. when i grew up there was the food pyramid. now we have the plate. on the plate 50% of that plate has fruits and vegetables on it. 25% whole grains and 25% meats

and other proteins. yet our subsidy program doesn't support that plate at all. as you mentioned, it's as low as 1% to 6% of subsidies go to speciality crops known as fruits and vegetables. >> the rest go where? >> 85% to commodity crops, corn, soy, cotton. everything that goes into highly-processed foods. 10% to 15% go to meat and dairy. >> good reasons why those subsidies stay there and 81% again, large numbers. in your survey worry that food and ag businesses have given millions to candidates for congress. there's a lot of money to be made from these subsidies. >> right. not everyone knows politics is awash with money and big companies have a lot of influence over the way congress votes off certain views. they are surprised to see this is an issue where there is also a lot of money driving some of these decisions. they are surprised about that. quite angry that that was the

case. >> you are up on capitol hill. obviously talking to policy makers. what do they say when they hear these numbers? >> what we are trying to do is have politicians, especially those running for president of this country to start looking at these issues of food. these are issues people want discussed. they want solutions. quite frankly, these are issues people can win on. these are tested poll messages. we want to see a debate around this. we want to see in the next debate there are questions about food in there. there are questions about what are we going to do with the fact 47 million people are struggling to feed themselves including 13 million children, 16 million seniors. i want answers. i want to hear a debate about that and hear how we are going to fix our broken food system. how we get money out of the food system. these are things we need to talk about. >> before you go, on the w.h.o.

warning about red meat, 71 pounds of red meat consumed by the average american each year, is that too much? >> it is a lot of red meat. all the studies are showing we should eat more of a plant-based diet. no one is saying eating red meat will cause cancer or eating processed meat will cause cancer. they are saying limit the amount you take, this can cause or lead to cancer. it's not eat meat, have cancer. we should all eat more of a plant-based diet. >> we should. thank you very much. still ahead, former british prime minister tony blair admits he has regrets about the iraq war. what are they and how will his revelation impact american politics? life's all about learning.... asking questions.... having new experiences. are you ready? the key to a happy satisfying life is to always be curious. jibo, how are you doing? i'm great! every moment is our moment.

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but under the proper care, they become something beautiful. >>, a big admission from one of george w. bush's most valued allies on the war on terror. tony blair admitting this weekend he has regrets about the 2003 invasion of iraq. >> i can say that i apologize for the fact that the intelligence we received was

wrong. even though he used chemical weapons extensively against his own people, against others, the program in the form that we thought it was did not exist in the way that we thought. i can apologize for that. i can apologize, by the way, for some of the mistakes in planning and certainly our mistaken in our understanding of what would happen once you removed the regime. >> that revelation comes as he awaits the findings of a six-year long public inquiry into the iraq war. could it have an impact on our own presidential election? joe klein, the author of "charlie mike" two afghanistan heroes who brought their mission home. joe, you followed tony blair and bill clinton's joint project third way politics.

this stuff about iraq which is not insubstantial pulled down his legacy. is he trying to rescue it somehow? >> i think so. the remarkable thing to me about tony blair and the british reaction to tony blair is how intense it has been. it's all across the culture. you remember hugh grant and billy bob thornton in "love actually" with hugh grant playing the tony blair character putting down the american president. it was the ghost writer. there have been books and music. he has been revitaled in england in a way george w. bush hasn't been hire. that must have been painful for him. the other incredible admission here is the admission, which is very true that going into iraq but to isis. >> let's listen to that. >> of course, you can't say that those of us who removed saddam

in 2003 bear no responsibility for the situation 2015. but it's important also to realize, one, that the arab spring which began in 2011 would also have had its impact on iraq today. and isis came to prominence from a base in syria and not in iraq. >> you don't hear that often in the political debate here. saying the invasion of iraq was a contributing factor in isis as opposed to the withdrawal from iraq, that is an important statement, isn't it? >> it is. i think it's the evidence is prominent. it's profound. we go around this whole buoy of whether we should have gone into iraq. that is a boring conversation now. the conversation from a presidential campaign perspective would be, especially looking at syria, is what did we do wrong when we decided to go in? there are three key things. making 400,000 iraqi soldiers unemployed from the back.

that is number one. that affects 2 million people in terms of mouths to field a notion you are going to get an iraqi constitution written by government that has been propped up by the west and not voted for by the iraqi people. that was a fundamental misunderstanding. the third one was the american camps. you've got abu ghraib. there is a brilliant article on the way isis came about. that is where the strategic master mind of isis got together and that's where they formulated the plan. never for iraq but always taking advantage of the vacuum in syria. >> none of that would have been possible without the invasion. >> it would have helped if the president of the united states at that point understood that iraq was just barely a country, that it was three different sand traps cobbled together by winston churchill. i don't know there is such a place as iraq. >> let's listen to what donald

trump has to say. he has a lot to say about everything. he blew the lid on the republican talking point here when he talked about what the world would have been like with saddam hussein. >> look at iraq. iraq used to be no terrorists. he would kill the terrorists immediately. now it's the harvard of terrorism. iraq. if you look at iraq from years ago, he was a horrible guy, but it was a lot better than it is now. now iraq is a training ground for terrorists. >> the world would be better with saddam hussein? >> 100%. >> he's not as eloquent as you. training camps. >> look at facts here. 12 years later we've got 500,000 civilians killed. 4 million internally displaced. there were no weapons of mass destruction. there were no links to al qaeda.

there was no united nations security council resolution to go in. one thing i would say is if we look at syria at the moment and their dick kator remained in power, you had 250,000 killed in four years. you've got 11 million internally displaced. there is a piece of analysis what iraq would have looked like given the context of the arab spring. >> jeb bush is holding to the line it was all obama's fault. listen to what he's been saying. >> taking out saddam hussein turned out to be a pretty good deal. the surge put aside the need, faulty intelligence, lack of a commitment to a secure iraq at the beginning which would have been helpful, put that aside. i've been critical. people have every right to be critical of decisions made. in 2009, iraq was fragile but

secure. it was mission accomplished in a way there was security there. >> between tony blair and donald trump, can republicans hold this line? >> no. they can't. really began -- 2016, 100th anniversary of the straight line borders in the middle east. you know the people there didn't draw them. the brits and the french did. what unfortunately was going to come down the pike saddam hussein or not is a redrawing of what the actual countries are. i think there is a kurdistan in the region. i'm not sure there is iraq. >> 43% of americans blame george w. bush. 44% said barack obama is responsible. it's evenly divided. thank you for watching.

"hardball" with chris mathews starts right now. has hillary got them scared yet? let's play "hardball." good evening, i'm chris mathews in los angeles. has hillary clinton's strong performance sobered up republicans to the facts of life? are they ready to put their best candidate on the field against her or screwing around and having fun? are they looking to next november or the horror of waking up to president hillary clinton or enjoy another round or two of bashing their party's establishment? the tough questions for republicans, do their voters, big shots, elected officials, whatever, who would you bet would be a stronger challenge