washington. donald trump returns to iowa today in an unfamiliar position, second place. >> i don't get it. i'm going there actually today and i have tremendous crowds and tremendous love in the room, and you know, we seem to have hit a chord but some of these polls coming out, i don't quite get it. i'm a little bit surprised. the other polls as you know in other states are extraordinary, actually. but this one, i don't quite get. i would have thought we were doing much better. i think we are doing much better, actually. >> trump is in second place, also in a new national poll, the first in more than three months, bringing a different dynamic to tomorrow night's big cnbc republican debate in colorado. joining me, chris cillizza and ann geurin. thank you for joining me. chris, let's talk about the polls. donald trump has been living by the polls. does he also die by the polls? >> the problem for him is that his entire message is well, i'm

winning. therefore, i'm winning, therefore you should vote for me. it's been a circle because the one thing that no one could take from him was that he was right. he shot up in polling in iowa, new hampshire and nationally, and he stayed there for three plus months, but we saw some signs of erosion a month or so ago. he dropped a little bit and now i think you are seeing carson in some ways sort of rise up. trump has continued to drop slightly but carson has just sort of passed him. ben carson deserves credit here. the question for trump is, for a candidacy built entirely around the idea of you're winning, what do you say when you're not winning? you heard him say i don't know. he obviously needs to refine that, i think, if he wants to have a second life in this race. >> ann, this certainly raises the stakes for the cnbc debate in colorado. >> absolutely. it's certainly the end of the donald trump/ben carson bromance that we have seen at one or two other debates and in between the debates, where trump seemed to

go out of his way to say nice things about carson. he has not been saying -- he's been saying some not nice things or less nice over the last week and i think for sthuure, he wil come out swinging tomorrow. i agree with chris, it's interesting that his response was i don't know. it seems like he's going to have to come up with something certainly by the time of the debate that is a real answer to that. how does he win again? what does he say in order to make that seem like a justifiable outcome? >> and let's take a look at the des moines register front page because one of the things that donald trump did was to attack the register for its poll and you know, now the iowans are saying that attacks on faith will fail, also because donald trump, no matter what he says, was certainly attacking the faith, chris cillizza, seventh day adventist faith of someone who has been very strong with

the evangelical movement and that's ben carson. >> we talked about this yesterday. i just think if i gave you the profile of two candidates and didn't attach a name to it and the profile of one was a world renowned pediatric neurosurgeon who put his faith very much front and center in the campaign, and the other one was donald trump without his name attached to it, i can tell you right off, anyone who has ever paid any attention to politics in iowa would tell you that the ben carson profile is by far a more appealing profile to that state. mike huckabee, rick santorum. we have seen people who look and talk, we have not seen african-american but people who have the profile, the social conservative strong evangelical community, remember, huckabee won in large part in 2008 by organizing the home school community, where carson will run strong as well. he looks like the kind of candidate we know can succeed in iowa. doesn't mean he will win but trump has always struggled i thought to fit into that mold. he's much more of a new hampshire guy, frankly, in terms

of who they vote for, than an iowa one. >> one of the things i couldn't figure out before we leave the republicans is why is donald trump spending so much time on iowa? he wasn't logical for iowa because of the strong evangelical movement. he's more logical for new hampshire. certainly going south to south carolina, he's got a much stronger base there. chris? >> yeah. no, there's no question. look, i think because i really believe this in my heart of hearts, even he of the massive ego was surprised by how well he did so quickly. so i think the thinking was i have a fair amount of money, i'm getting a lot of free press, he got a pretty respected guy in iowa in the social conservative movement to run his campaign there. why not, i can win everywhere. i think that -- i don't know if there will be a retrenching or not because donald trump, that word doesn't usually go together. if he was thinking logically about this nomination, he like many, i would say the same about jeb bush, should downplay iowa

because he's just not a natural fit there. try to make new hampshire the place where you run that outsider, speak truth to power, that message and who trump is could resonate i think in new hampshire. in iowa, it always felt sort of like he's kind of a celebrity, we're kind of interested in him but kind of celebrity is rudy giuliani, hillary clinton have not done that well in iowa in the past. i think on the republican side, idealogical purity, and trump is not going to be the social conservative candidate in the race. >> nor is he iowa nice, to put a point on that. let's talk briefly about the democrats. this hour there's a new monmouth poll and this to me frankly is a shocker. i know it's post-benghazi and hillary clinton certainly to her supporters appeared to be victimized, but we saw a very strong passionate performance by bernie sanders on saturday night at the big jefferson-jackson dinner there, and it just seems

from talking to the iowa locals that it's a lot closer than this. this is just a blowout. >> right. right. this poll shows a 40-point rise which is almost unheard of in polling. it would be huge news for her if it was a rise of half the size, right? a 20-point jump. that although seems maybe possible, given the run of excellent news for her, some of it concentrated in iowa, she also had a very strong performance on saturday at the jefferson-jackson dinner and she was riding a wave. the day before was the benghazi testimony. there's certainly a large outpouring of sympathy and fury, sympathy for her and fury at the republicans over that. she had a good day on friday at this rally in virginia and then saturday is the jefferson-jackson dinner. she was on kind of riding a curl there, and did very well. still a 40 point jump is a

little hard to believe. i'm perfectly prepared to believe she has well consolidated her lead in iowa and it is maybe not neck and neck anymore. >> anne and chris, best of the "washington post," thank you so much. breaking news from the pentagon. defense secretary ash carter today telling the senate armed services committee the u.s. military will start putting boots on the ground in direct action against isis in iraq and in syria. >> we won't hold back from supporting capable partners in opportunistic attacks against isil or conducting such missions directly, whether by strikes from the air or direct action on the ground. >> nbc chief pentagon correspondent jim miklaszewski joins me now. a lot happening on your beat. >> absolutely. >> so what do you make of ash carter's presentation to the senate today? there was a very forward-leaning

story leading the paper in the "washington post" today. is this the pentagon pushing for more boots on the ground and the white house reconsidering and about to shift policy? or is the white house there, do you think? >> well, quite frankly, everybody agrees that the current strategy is not working as well as it should, that u.s. forces and iraqi forces in particular are at a standoff, stalemate, with isis in iraq. now, for the first time, secretary carter today acknowledged that u.s. forces could be in a position where they would engage with combat on the ground there in iraq. now, we're not talking about committing large numbers of american forces to iraq. that's out of the question. but for the first time, they're acknowledging that u.s. military forces could in fact be imbedded with iraqi forces on the ground during combat operations and engaged in combat. and you look at this situation

where the u.s. military, delta force commandoes, accompanied kurd forces in northern iraq just this past weekend when one u.s. soldier or this past week, when one u.s. soldier, delta force commando, was killed in that operation, and that's what they're talking about. and to this day, there are some within the pentagon and administration that deny that that was in a combat operation, yet today in testimony before the senate armed services committee, secretary carter said that was combat. >> and i think the game changer, if you look, take a 30,000 foot look at this, the game changer is russia. the russian air strikes. because that's really forced the administration's hand here. even though the sfespecial forc have been there for awhile, but just the whole decision making and you've got a deputy secretary of state heading to paris and for the first time, we are talking about not only meeting with the russians but

meeting with the iranians, that's on the table. the europeans are pushing for it. the jordanians have established a joint command center with russia for the air strikes and jordan is a key member of the u.s. coalition. just seems like everything is changing and they are backing into the recognition that assad is going to stay and we have to deal with him. >> that's raised serious questions among u.s. allies in the region, especially some of those fighting in syria against the assad regime because, and secretary carter was hammered on this today by republican members of the senate armed services committee, the u.s. really has not responded to the russian military actions there in syria, and in fact, the iranian military action ns syria. there's some concern that the u.s. may not be considered a reliable partner right now in syria and that was brought up today to carter during today's hearings.

quite frankly, they didn't have any really good answers as to why the u.s. could not push back against russia to restrain them from launching air strikes, particularly against u.s. allies on the ground there, but syrian civilians as well. >> in fact, this goes back to really the acknowledgment that we had only trained a handful of rebels. here's just a portion of what john mccain had to say to ash carter today. >> does that mean that we, these young people that we train and equip and send in to fight, that we're going to protect them from being barrel bombed and attacked by russian aircraft? >> i think we have conveyed the same obligation last time i was before you. >> right now as we speak, russian aircraft are bombing, right now as we speak, russian aircraft are bombing moderate syrian forces in syria. >> so just to make the point you

were just making, that ash carter was really hammered today. >> exactly. and you can see the dilemma. the u.s. obviously does not want to engage russian military aircraft over the skies in syria. that's just not in the cards. but the russians, vladimir putin, has taken advantage of that according to some officials here in the pentagon, to insert itself into that fight, realizing that the u.s. was pretty much hamstrung in terms of the kind of reaction, kind of reaction they could have to these russian incursions in syria. >> jim miklaszewski, thanks so much as always, from the pentagon. up next, the house strikes a deal to keep the government open for two years. that hasn't happened in five years. what about the way it was done? the back room bargaining and more coming up next on msnbc. (vo) after 50 years of designing

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in a late night deal, congress and the white house have reached a tentative budget agreement to fund the government for two years, to suspend the debt limit through march of 2017 and to provide $80 billion in sequester relief. as john boehner's parting gift to paul ryan. >> i haven't even seen this agreement so i'm going to reserve judgment until i can actually see something on paper. if you want to ask me what i think about this process, i think this process stinks. under new management we are not going to run the house this way. we should have been discussing this months ago as members so we would have a more coherent strategy. in the future we need a better process than the one that's working if we want to do the people's business the right way. >> i'm in full agreement.

it stinks. it certainly is not the process i would want. remember what the alternative was. the alternative was a clean debt ceiling or default on our debt. it also means that we got to december 11th, we could be facing another government shutdown. >> a floor vote is expected as early as tomorrow. i'm joined by austin ghoulsby, professor at the university of chicago school of business. great to see you again. the question is, how could they do it now and not before this? you have been part of these negotiations in the past. i happen to see several members of the administration in a diplomatic event last night running to their phones. this was touch and go until it was a done deal. >> yeah, though you know, this had the element that my wife sort of thinks every nba game has which is they play and they play and then in the last two minutes, they sort out who wins

by fouling and going to the free-throw line. you had the sense that they were going to try to push up to the end. the fact that john boehner is retiring made this possible because it meant the last thing in the world he wanted to do was leave a parting gift to his successor, a debt ceiling fight and potential default on the u.s. debt. so none of the republicans want to do this but it was sort of the final vote for the voice of reason and fortunately they did it. >> and what is the impact economically? let's say there had been a fiscal cliff, falling over the fiscal cliff and a debt ceiling disaster? >> i would say the impact on the economy is -- there's a small positive in the short run for the gdp and there's sort of a large positive if you put it in the realm of the compared to what. so the small positive is there will be a little bit less fiscal

drag because they're not going to have the fiscal cliff, they will sort out some of the uncertainties we are probably weighing on some investment, you will get a little bit of growth kick from it, but the bigger issue is every time we have actually had either a government shutdown or a fight over the debt ceiling, where we edged close to the brink, consumer confidence has actually plunged in this country, for whatever reason. consumers in the u.s. do not like to see the government fighting this much and getting right to the edge. it was a bigger hit to consumer confidence the last time we did this than was 9/11, than were a bunch of major catastrophes, exceeded only i believe by the lehman week and the financial crisis of 2008. so compared to that, this is a very -- if they pass this, it would be a very big triumph. >> which still is an if because there will be a rebellion in the

house caucus, in any case. >> you bet. >> the other point is politically. we are trying to sort out, all of us, why all conventional wisdom is wrong, why ben carson and donald trump have been leaders, why outsiders are winning this year and why everyone wants to quote, throw the bums out, closed quote. so isn't this partly a throwback to years and years of no budget agreements, no appropriation bills, complete gridlock in washington? >> oh, no doubt about it. you are 100% correct. and i wouldn't be surprised if every single presidential candidate comes out and condemns and says this is the worst thing that's ever happened, yet secretly in their hearts, they are happy to get the debt ceiling and the government shutdown fights almost all of them, happy to get those off the table for the election so they can go back to grounds, i think, that are more favorable to the republicans. we have seen when the government shuts down that does not bode

well for the prospects of the republicans. >> again, great to see you. i would trust your wife's judgment on nba games and on politics. knowing your wife. >> that's right. >> thank you very much. up next, the video that put a school police officer on leave and has raised a lot of questions about the use of force in public schools. you owned your car for four years. you named it brad. you loved brad. and then you totaled him. you two had been through everything together. two boyfriends. three jobs. you're like "nothing can replace brad!" then liberty mutual calls. and you break into your happy dance. if you sign up for better car replacement, we'll pay for a car that's a model year newer with 15,000 fewer miles than your old one. see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance.

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the officer was called to escort the student out. the incident was captured on cell phone video by another student in the classroom. the student was detained and released reportedly uninjured into her paintrents' custody. the officer is senior deputy ben fields with the richland county sheriff's department. he has been placed on administrative leave and declined to comment. nbc's gabe gutierrez joins me with more from columbia, south carolina. i know we have to be careful when talking about cell phone video, but just from what we saw, it seemed to be a questionable use of force against a teenager. >> reporter: good afternoon. well, this is provoking a lot of reaction not just here in welcome, south carolina, but across the country and this morning, the local sheriff here in richland county is asking the fbi to look into this case. he's even cut a trip out of town short to come back here. he's promising a full investigation. the mayor of columbia, south

carolina spoke with jose diaz-balart here on msnbc. here's what he had to say. >> i'm outraged. for anyone who watches this, i have two school-aged children. it really tore my heart. we are those who have been empowered with the authority to make decisions that affect people's freedom and people's lives and with that comes an incredible amount of responsibility. >> reporter: the superintendent of schools here in columbia also released a written statement saying student safety is and always will be the district's top priority. the district will not tolerate any actions that jeopardize the safety of our students. that's why the district is promising to cooperate with police to get to the bottom of what happened here. >> gabe, i should point out the department of justice has just announced it is opening an fbi field investigation into a potential civil rights abuse here. so a civil rights case

investigation at least. i wanted to also share some of the reactions from students and parents. >> maybe after that first, cohave put her in handcuffs, took her out. second one, that was too much. >> i think she should have stood up. i think she should have left the classroom. >> my reaction is that force was a little excessive but if the student had done what she was supposed to do in the first mace it would never have taken place. >> they were wrong both ways. she should never have fought back and he shouldn't have picked her up like that. >> what do we know about the officer, gabe? >> reporter: well, this is not the first time that deputy fields has been accused of excessive force. he and several officers were sued following a 2007 incident, but he won that case and another lawsuit is still pending. a student sued fields and other school officials for an incident

back in 2013 claiming in part that fields unfairly and recklessly targeted african-american students. now, fields and the other defendants are denying any wrongdoing in that case. he presented evidence to dispute those allegations but again, that case is still pending. >> gabe gutierrez, thank you so much. richland county sheriff leon lott is on his way back from chicago following incident. he was there today for the international association of chiefs of police. the largest gathering of law enforcement leaders in the country. president obama will speak before that conference later today. you can see him leaving washington. the president is expected to address criminal justice reform and the rising homicide rates in many large american cities, including of course, chicago. coming up next, jeb bush goes back to the bench to revive his campaign. ♪ everything kids touch during cold and flu season sticks with them.

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so what's in a name? jeb bush may have thought that his family legacy was his b biggest drawback. now his family connections would be his survival strategy. on monday, he was joined by his brother in houston to reassure financial backers who may have worried the campaign was imploding. this as the contest on the democratic side is heating up with bernie sanders really firing shots at front-runner hillary clinton. joining me to talk about both parties' struggles this year, anita dunn, former white house communications director and the speech writer to former president bush. thank you so much. let's talk about bush world first. you know the family. you know the legacy, the former president is said to be foregoing his special, his regular television viewing and staying up late frail as he is at 91 to watch debates and try to figure out what has changed in politics for the bush family. >> well, i think imploding is a

little strong. there is eventually going to be an establishment alternative to the outsider candidate and it's probably going to be jeb bush or marco rubio which seem to be the leaders here. i think it's a real genuine contest between the two. they are both similar in the polls. but i think that jeb has had a bad couple of weeks with staff layoffs, with polling problems, and i think maybe the biggest problem is that his main message is his record as governor, which he's really proud of and should be, but that doesn't fit where the republican party is right now, talking about governing strength. in fact, that seems to be a liability in many parts of the party. so i think he's going to have to adjust his message significantly if he's going to be that alternative. >> are we beginning to see the decline of donald trump? in at least the national poll now, the first time seeing him, first time in three months we are seeing he's not the leader? >> well, if you look at just

iowa, for example, which is not and never has been the best terrain for him, but you know, one poll, two polls, three polls, that is a pattern now where he's fallen behind dr. carson, and now of course, this morning, the cbs and "new york times" poll shows that is the case nationally. the test of a candidate, we all know this, is are they resilient, can they come back, because this moment happens to every candidate who wins their party's nomination. the question is what happens to you, how do you perform when you fall behind. that's really the question donald trump gets to start answering tomorrow night at the republican debate. >> you wrote about carson and trump but it's also the test of jeb bush, because when john mccain cut staff, suspended a lot of operations, his approach was not what jeb's was -- what bush's was last saturday. there are a lot of other cool things i could be doing, i don't have to run for president, and you have to be forward-looking. you have to be optimistic.

you have to fight back. >> i completely agree with that. he needs a circuit breaker. he needs something big in order to change the narrative which is a downward narrative right now. that puts a lot of pressure on the debate. he could go after trump, he could go after rubio. he has to distinguish himself in some way in this debate and in the next few weeks in order to reassure his donors and you know, voters in early states. >> is marco rubio really the establishment alternative? he hasn't been -- he hasn't gotten a lot of scrutiny. is it okay to say i'm not voting in the senate because i hate the senate and that's why i'm not running for re-election? >> i think he's a tremendous natural talent. most people who know him would believe that. the question is whether he's ready for national election and he has not had to prove that yet. we are going to see it. >> and let's talk about that monmouth poll. i talked about it briefly with anne gearan before. you really study polls better than any of us.

i just, 41 points doesn't make sense. it is the first post-benghazi poll, though, in iowa, which is her natural constituency. >> well, you know, it's interesting and obviously we'll wait and see what the other polls that will start coming out show as well, but one sense is that there's been a settling at least for the time being because this is october, it's not february. but it's settling in the democratic field over the past three weeks given her debate performance and the fact that none of the other candidates challenged her whatsoever at that debate. so it was a really commanding performance. obviously her performance in the benghazi hearings, the fact that vice president biden chose not to get in this race, not to run. so you know, the question is, is there a settling of this, is the race starting to behave the way a lot of observers thought it would at the beginning. i'm going to caution everyone, it's october. there are more debates to come and a lot more space to cover. >> it feels later than it is

because it started so much earlier but it really isn't. you of course know the vice president really well. and that decision i know was dictated as he has said by the family considerations and how late it had become. do you think he still could have done it? >> oh, who knows. i tend to believe that if the people who know why they're running and get in these races, even if the path isn't obvious, can make a good, you know, you can make a good campaign out of it. and he knew why he wanted to run. but the reality is he's also an experienced politician and he looked at it and it would have been, you know, the proverbial camel through the eye of the needle which just very difficult to do. >> ben carson is now taking hillary clinton on on a number of statements, in a way he didn't in the debate. i'm sorry, bernie sanders. >> i was going to say ben carson

takes nobody on. that's part of his zen charm. you know, i think the next democratic debate's going to be very interesting, because it's going to be a much smaller field. jim webb and lincoln chafee will not be there. joe biden will not be there. it will be three candidates. probably three candidates. and i think there will be a level of engagement you didn't snee the first debate and clearly, sanders has decided that he wants to start drawing more distinct differences as people do when they're behind. >> the reality here is that hillary clinton faces a democratic socialist in this race who is not going to be president of the united states. i think she's in a very strong position. i think in fact now of the top four candidates in both parties, she's clearly the most qualified. so she's benefiting from that. but she has her own problems with how people view her character. she's not the best politician in the world. i think she's beatable and has an fbi investigation moving forward that's going -- that is a total wild card in this race.

so i think she's very well positioned right now in her party and vis a vis the other party, but we are going to see a lot more between now and then. >> quick question to both of you, is donald trump going to be -- will donald trump or ben carson, either of them, be the nominee or will someone else be the republican nominee? >> i don't know. >> i think the establishment bet has been the good bet through most of history unless it's 1964. for barry goldwater. there are exceptions here. >> thank you both so much. anita, great to see you. michael, thanks. the world champion u.s. women's soccer team took a victory lap at the white house today, celebrating the talented women who dominated the world cup, including mvp carli lloyd. president obama noted that they have bright futures both on the field and maybe one day, who knows, in the oval office. >> carli's performance was so good that by the time the game was over, someone had changed her title on wikipedia from midfielder to president of the united states.

which by the way, the job's about to open up. what's another candidate in the mix? i guarantee you carli knows more about being president than some of the folks who are running. but that's a whole other -- [ applause ] >> you can see he just can't resist. up next, celebrity chefs join the campaign to cut the fat from our kids' diets but not the money. vo: today's the day. more and more people with type 2 diabetes are learning about long-acting levemir®. as my diabetes changed, it got harder to control my blood sugar. today, i'm asking about levemir®. vo: levemir® is an injectable insulin that can give you blood sugar control for up to 24 hours. and levemir® helps lower your a1c. levemir® lasts 42 days

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msnbc food correspondent tom colicchio joins me now. great to see you. let's talk about what's at stake in these school lunches because of the basic nutritional values in these lunches compared to what these kids would otherwise be getting. >> yeah. five years ago, the president signed a healthy hunger for kids act. we raised the standards in what we're feeding the kids in the program. there are over 30 million children that use the program for breakfast and lunch and after school and summer programs, and i think it's important that we raise the standards, that we actually send our kids to school and are feeding them healthy meals. healthy meals and better nutrition, kids can learn more, learn better and obviously will be much more productive down the road. >> one of the things you're doing is serving school lunches to members of congress? >> yeah, we are. there's a great organization, revolution foods, a school lunch provider. i met with them about a year ago and was just amazed at how good the food was.

so we are here today at the capitol and we are feeding members of congress school lunch, just to prove that it's not the standards, it's the food. the food we can always improve on but the standards we need to keep high and in fact, we need to raise the standards. >> how universal is the quality? you're talking about all across america, rural, you know, urban. >> right. there are great farm-to-school programs. we are actually getting food that's grown locally into the school program and there's a lot of other programs to increase local food in the system as well. i think that's something that's really important. not only important for the students, but also important for the farmers. if they can actually create markets for their food, they will grow more nutritious foods. >> who is against it? what kind of opposition are you encountering? >> well, there's a lot of talk that there's waste in the system. there's waste in every food system as a country, we waste 40% of what we produce. but we're finding that there's no more or less waste.

kids are eating more fruits and vegetables. a lot of the pushback was from large food companies that had to sort of rejigger their recipes to adhere to the standards, standards where there's more whole grains, less sugar, less salt in the food. but now a lot of these large companies have done that so the pushback is really just coming from, you know, i think because this is something that the first lady and the president really sort of got behind, this was one of their major programs, that there's just resistance for anything the president and the first lady does. >> and finally, i just want to ask you about that world health organization study. is there processed meat in school lunches or red meat? and where do you stand on that? >> yeah, sure there are. i think the world health organization, they're not saying there's a cause between eating processed meats and cancer. they're saying that it can add to that and so you know, i agree. i think we should have more of a plant based diet.

i would like to see more vegetarian options available at school for kids. again, it's good for your health, also good for our environment. >> great to see you here in d.c. thank you very much. thanks for joining us today. up next, the cnbc debate. what the next 24 hours may hold for the republicans. so what's your news? i got a job! i'll be programming at ge. oh i got a job too, at zazzies. (friends gasp) the app where you put fruit hats on animals? i love that! guys, i'll be writing code that helps machines communicate. (interrupting) i just zazzied you. (phone vibrates) look at it! (friends giggle) i can do dogs, hamsters, guinea pigs... you name it. i'm going to transform the way the world works. (proudly) i programmed that hat. and i can do casaba melons. i'll be helping turbines power cities. i put a turbine on a cat. (friends ooh and ahh) i can make hospitals run more efficiently... this isn't a competition!

we're talking about the agencies of government, epa needs to be rebuilt. no doubt about that. >> you can't name a third one? >> the third agency of government i would do away with, the education -- the -- >> commerce. >> commerce. let's see. >> oh, my. >> i can't, the third one, i can't. sorry. oops. >> the oops moment. which political story will make headlines in the next 24 hours?

cnbc washington correspondent john harwood, one of the moderators of tomorrow night's republican debate joining me live from the spin room in boulder, colorado. john, what are you doing when you're not ending people's presidential candidacies? >> that was a lot of fun. but we're going to have fun tomorrow night and especially in light of this new polling today showing that at least in one survey, ben carson has overtaken donald trump. you saw what happened when carson moved ahead in iowa the other day. donald trump really started to go after him, so we may see some electricity on the stage. >> i think you certainly will, because carson's going to have to also say something at some point about trump's suggestion that there's something wrong with being a seventh day adventist. people in iowa seem to be reacting to that. what are the stakes for jeb bush? here he comes from houston and has been meeting with the family, you've got trump ridiculing him saying he ran home to mommy and daddy.

>> he needs a very strong performance. it's a tough moment for jeb bush. he is lagging significantly in the polls, he's recently slashed his campaign payroll. you've had people looking at him as somebody who may be on his way out of this race. he wants to refute that with a strong performance and try to stand out. i would say he has a glimmer of hope from the cracking of the trump lead nationally, a suggestion that maybe some of the summer mood that elevated outsiders, of course, outsider ben carson's still on top, may be changing and validates some of the predictions from traditional candidates that those outsiders will have their moment and then fade. >> it's only october but is there a time when the empire will strike back and you'll see a coalescing around marco rubio, jeb bush, even john kasich, or are we reaching the point where

it's almost too late for someone to move into the front lines? >> i don't think so, andrea. you and i have covered enough of these to know that the process really acts like a funnel and it narrows the list of candidates. we have 14 candidates who we'll be talking to tomorrow night in both of the debates we have, four in the first one, ten in the second, but once you get to voting time and we get close to iowa, iowa happens, then new hampshire, you are going to have people starting to get out of the race, then it coalesces and maybe you will have one outsider candidate and one traditional candidate, and certainly if you're somebody like jeb bush or marco rubio, you've got to hope your odds get a lot better when the field and the lanes narrow. >> let's talk about the economy, because there is a budget deal. it might actually be voted on on the floor before the debate starts. nobody on that stage is going to profess liking it, but doesn't it take a lot of pressure off of them?

>> well, certainly off of the eventual nominee, it takes pressure off, because that deal would ensure that we don't have a debt crisis and we don't have a government shutdown between now and the next presidential election. i would expect that we are going to see some of the candidates on the stage come out very hard against it. don't know if anybody will defend it. that will be a key marker. somebody could actually stand out by saying hey, government's averting crisis and calming the financial markets, that's a good thing, i'm for it. it tests a lot of the cross-pressures within the current republican party. >> we were talking to austan goolsbee about this. he pointed out that consumer confidence fell more during the fiscal cliff and the government shutdown than at any time, even more than after 9/11 except for after the lehman crash. >> exactly right. you know, at some point, you have a government that's got to come together and get things done. so this is how john boehner has done it, oddly enough, as he's leaving the job of speaker,

trying to as he put it, clean up the barn for paul ryan, his successor. but you know, at what point does the republican party which now controls the congress claim victory for a deal like that as opposed to a faction of the party railing against their leaders? a really fascinating moment we're in. >> finally, ash carter on the hill today acknowledging boots on the ground. it's a combat operation whether they call it that or not. the white house sort of pushing back. but clearly, putin's initiative has been a game changer for what's happening in syria against assad. lot of foreign policy issues that could also come up. i know you don't talk about questions in advance but we want to hear some policy from these guys. guys and woman. one of them could be a republican nominee. >> that's right. and it's a difficult issue for them, too, just as president obama has been reluctant to step up a level of american

intervention, a lot of these candidates have been as well. on the other hand, they are criticizing him for weakness. what do they do now? we'll see. >> john harwood, good luck tomorrow night. we will be there soon, watching. thanks very much for joining us today. don't forget, watch the republican debate tomorrow night on our sister network, cnbc. that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." tomorrow, we are on the trail live from the university of colorado in boulder for the cnbc debate. follow the show online, on facebook and twitter. thomas roberts joins with what's coming up next on "msnbc live." we look forward to seeing you in boulder tomorrow. thank you. coming up next another side to the story surrounding that disturbing take-down of a south carolina student. we will speak to a man who sued that officer over a previous incident of excessive force and lost. plus, more on the polling, the new national one that is out and the numbers not adding up for donald trump to be a self-proclaimed winner. can tomorrow night's debate help him regain the momentum?

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24-hour blood sugar control of toujeo®. today on "msnbc live" on the ropes. ben carson leaps ahead of donald trump for the first time in a national poll setting a dramatic stage for tomorrow's next round in the republican presidential debates. we will take you live to colorado for a preview. plus, breaking news in the war against isis. defense secretary ash carter unveils a ramped up u.s. strategy but does it amount to u.s. boots on the ground? and southern states already under water, bracing for even more rain. that's not all. that soaking storm is moving straight toward a wicked wind system brewing up north for a one-two punch that could create an air travel nightmare. we will give you the details on that. great to have you with me. i'm thomas roberts. we begin with new updates on that developing story in south carolina. the disturbi