i think ultimately, when people really start looking at immigration, they are going to have to come to grips with something that's going to appeal to independents and democrats. i think our activists will come to their senses soon. >> all right. thank you, adolpho franco, ryan grimm, thanks for watching msnbc live. i'm steve cokornacki. "hardball" starts right now. republicans in a frenzy. welcome to "hardball." good evening, i'm chris matthews in boulder, colorado, the site of tonight's cnbc republican presidential debate. and i will admit, it's hard for me to get my head around the chaos of the republican fight for president right now. are the majority of the republican voters so unhappy with their usual leaders, their governors like bush and christie

and kasich, they are determined to pick a defiant outlier like trump, carson, fiorina or cruz, or are they ready to just give up the revolution and fall into line? or, is one candidate cute enough politically, marco rubio, to appeal to both catmps, the establishment and the renegades? more immediately, are those on the hard right attracted more to a canned the da, donald trump, who knows something about the economy or one who seems more in league with their religious values, dr. ben carson? well, these are fairly basic questions for a party to be considering this late in the game. selection of 2016 is one that really counts, of course, it is going to set a direction for the country, no matter which party wins, because there's no incoming party to go back and work and continue as it was. in fact, tonight, the candidates are meeting for the first time with donald trump once again suck up much of the oxygen in

the room. jeb bush promising to take it to him. john kasich is calling out the crazy, as he calls it in his party, and ben carson, the front-runner in the latest polls, is promising to stay out of what he calls the slime pit. meanwhile, trump himself is playing defensive, warning of a very unfair debate tonight, and complaining to iowa republicans about his dragging poll numbers. the ingredients are there for an explosive night. steve schmidt is the former senior strategist for john mccain's presidential campaign and michael steele is the former chairman of the republican national committee. let talk about trump. used to say in basketball, you can win while you are ahead, but do you have the heart to win when you are behind? he has fall an bit behind. statistical statistically, not significant but still behind and falling. can trump fight it out in the mix? >> well, what i'm trying to figure out is why he wants to

fight this like, he has made the decision to make these poll numbers matter. he could easily -- any other candidate in this situation, hillary clinton fell behind, bernie sanders of new hampshire. did you see her sort of -- was it a full-fledged panic by the candidate? he is creating adversity for himself by making it matter so much. look, what he needs to worry more about tonight, he is the businessman. he is the guy that supposedly knows this is his sweet spot. if he doesn't dominate this debate, he has got to be mr. economy, mr. jobs, mr. i know how to negotiate better. this is his forum. he has got to own this. this is not about ben carson. if it is about other things, he is a brander, he is setting his expectations bars low, no, not going to have a good debate, no, this is a debate he should own. >> why is he talking about women and burqas and wearing makeup under his headgear, an odd thing for a male, any male, to be talking about, in any circumstances. >> donald trump coming into this debate tonight, we are going to

see, is he going to take the debate, engage ben carson or turn and face these establishment candidates? he going to drive his outsider message or is he going to get into a fight with another outsider? if he does that i think it's a big mistake for him tonight. what he should be talking about is when you add up the carson numbers, you add up the trump numbers together, what it's saying you have half the republican electorate -- >> 50%. >> -- we want somebody new. we want something new. we are going to make the country great again. going to be interesting tonight to see if donald trump fights everybody, if he fights carson, if he fights the establishment guys. >> so, chuck says fight your strong suit, stick to your home run pitch. you have got the economy. anybody else talked about that you said talk against the establishment guys. what do you say, michael? >> i think he actually has to do probably more of what chuck is talking about because he has so branded himself as the guy who can fix this problem. >> the fixer, yep. >> he is the fixer. i negotiate deals. i do it bigger, better than anyone else. >> yeah. >> if he gets on the stage

tonight and to steve's point, if he gets in the weeds in a battle with somebody else, whether it's an establishment candidate or one of his fellow outsiders, he is losing points on the one thing that he has come into this race talking about >> personally, i like it when he explained how he would build the wall what materials woe use. i know it's a stupid idea, but at least in terms of meeting the spe specs, he knew what he was talking b trump was tweeting concern, personal concern, he wrote "after a great evening and packed a auditorium in iowa, i'm now in colorado looking forward to what i'm sure will be a very unfair debate." that's him. last night in iowa, trump slippings in the poll seemed to be all in his mind. he told the crowd in iowa again and again to "get the numbers up." >> iowa, will you get your numbers up, please. first of all, i am a great christian, and i am. i am. remember that. and i do well the evangelicals.

but the evangelicals let me down a little bit this last month. i don't know what i did. you get the numbers up, iowa, please? this is ridiculous. i mean, what is my competition? now, until iowa came along, i said every poll, and iowa -- what the hell are you people doing to me? please do me a favor. let me win iowa. when i heard the poll today, they said what are you going to do? i said going to work hard in iowa. i'm into the leaving iowa. i'm not leaving iowa. now, if i lose iowa, i will never speak to you people again. [ laughter ] >> you know, what's with the rodney dangerfield? >> i have been trying to picture -- >> rodney dangerfield. >> can you imagine president trump, his approval rating falls below 50% that first time, you know, it happens to every president, is he gonna barnstorm the country going, come on, i'm doing a great job. >> where is the respect? >> look, this has been the one part of this i wondered about, chuck. the guy cares obviously about

numbers so much, you could make an argument, curious if he does, basically says, hey, i'm having an up/down presidency, you tell me if i'm doing good, i will stay on this policy, if i'm doing bad, i will switch. oddly appealing to a small slices of the electorate. >> this we're number one if we're not number one, we are a joke. not the way the world works. you are a competitor. you are a rival. you stay in the fight. it never ends. you keep competing. >> this is, at the end of the day, this is a character test. we see the mettle of these people through this long, grueling process, resiliency is the most underappreciated virtue for the person who ultimately goes on to win the nomination. every nominee, every president, walks many lonely miles through the valley of the shadow of political death. so, is trump able to show resiliency? is he able to be in the fight, to come back up?

what fumes this candidacy is trump's strength. gets out there and he whines -- >> showing his weakness. let me ask you, bill clinton lost the new hampshire primary in 1992. he lost it by eight points and declared himself the winner. >> yeah. >> that's the way you win in this candidacy. >> declared himself the winner. >> about bringing that kind of attitude to the game. the one thing trump has had is attitude. so when the number s aren't working for him, the question that a lot of folks have, his real -- real hard-core supporters will be with him, for everyone else, how do you resolve yourself to that? >> tonight, might get some shots the him, governor john cakasich called out some of the candidates on the far right, including trump and carson s this a last gasp by john kasich or what? let's watch it. >> you know how crazy this election is? [ laughter ] let me tell you something. i've about had it with these people.

[ laughter ] and let me tell you why. we got one candidate that says we ought to abolish medicaid and medicare. you ever heard of anything so crazy as that? we got one person saying we ought to have a 10% flat tax that will drive up the deficit in this country by trillions of dollars that my daughters will spend the rest of their lives having to pay off. you know what i say to them, why don't we have no taxes, get rid of them all, and a chicken in every pot on top of it. what has happened to our party? what has happened to the conservative movement? >> i am fed up. i'm sick and tired of listening to this nonsense and i'm going to have to call it like it is. >> you know, he extended medicaid in the state as part of obamacare and along comes a candidate says not only am i getting rid of medicaid all together for poor people, i'm getting rid of medicare which every middle class of person in any money in the country depends on. >> you go back to the '90s, where the democrats were so effective running the meddyscare

campaign, talking about cut it, candidates started abolishing it. not a good issue for us. >> a constituency in your party for getting rid of medicare? >> oh, yeah, of course there is. >> get rid of it? >> yeah, there are. that's why you have some candidates out there saying that. but what i like about what kasich did, he pushed back. and he is going to make the case i think will resonate for a lot of seniors and a lot more republicans. i mean this -- he has governed through this. he has had to make the hard choices. i think he will come out tonight and show that. >> something bigger is happening the republican party. put together four different items in the last week. john boehner deciding to quick instead of face the fire, cut a deal with the president, deal with the debt limit. import/export bank, i don't want to get into the weeds of this, but half the republican party, the business wing want it had, they worked with democrats and forced the issue out. it's going to be reauthorized. then you have the kasich rant. then you have the bush rant. i think we are seeing the establishment say, you know

what, the base has driven us to support things that have hurt the party as a whole. we are not going to let the base drive us anymore. now, that said, the base has never been more emboldened and i think they see this -- i think we are starting -- it may end up blowing up into a civil war in the party but the establishment is clearly starting to fight back. >> like 1964, when the people like rockefeller and those guys dropped out? didn't back the nominee? >> there's an argument -- there's an argument -- >> '64, the long run was a great thing for the republican party. in the right context -- >> up until now, they feel they have been lied to and cheated on a lot of these points that chuck raised. i am saying the fight needs to

happen. a lot of resistance from the establishment types, but the fight is coming to them and they better be prepared for t >> what the base of the republican party believes is that barack obama has won, he has succeeded, he has changed the country and wrecked it. and he did it with a comp police silt, if he canless, compromising republican establishment in washington, d.c. you in you have candidates thought in this race who are running against that establishment, running hard against it and they have captured the imagination of these republican voters. the head of the republican committee, reince priebus, tried to down play the fighting in his own party by offering an example until history. let's batch. >> i think this is no different than a lot of other years where we always have an insurgency in the party, which is true. even pat buchanan won the new hampshire primary in 1992 against a sitting president.

it is not unusual. >> the only problem, mr. priebus is -- >> did win in '96. >> he said '92. >> to his defense, very possible he was conflating '96 to '92. but it is important in '92. >> everything they talked about for 20 year, conflating 9/11 with iraq. >> a larger point here. >> chemical weapons with nuclear weapons. >> a larger point, pat buchanan didn't win in '92, but he won. he did win. he drove bush's numbers down with conservatives. he became the face of the conservative movement and bush republicans will say he caught -- he started the conversation that cost them the presidency. started the conversation and finished that conversation at the national convention in houston and incendiary, primetime speech, the country reacted very negatively to it. did tremendous amount of damage

in the general election electorate. >> still there and still part of the fight and it's been a fight that's been ongoing over 20 years now. and time is coming to a head in this election. >> a wise man, mr. steele. former chairman as well. steven, thank you for serving as the united nations interpreter for reince priebus. he owes you big time. i would have stomped him like a bug. thank you, chuck todd, steve schmidt and michael steele. you will all be with us throughout the night. anyway, we will be right back. don't want to miss, by the way, our late night edition of "hardball", 10 eastern, postdebate coverage. i will be joineded by senator rand paul and governor john kasich all coming to sit in these chairs. coming up, grudge match, what will we see tonight between trump and carson, trump and jeb? we will preview tonight's hottest matchups with the game change authors, both coming here

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welcome back to "hardball," live from the spin room. that's what it is. on the campus of the university of colorado in boulder, the site of tonight's republican presidential debate. well, the sharks are circling jeb bush. his campaign is in serious trouble tonight. donors are threatening to walk away from him. and meanwhile, jeb bush himself is whining that he has better things to do with his life. while jeb struggles, the republican base is going gaga for the wild rhetoric of ben carson. he swapped places with trump atop these polls right now. donald trump hardly a shrinking violet, duels with both of these fellas tonight and the path to debates is any guide the at all, get ready for fire works. nbc's katy tur covers the trump

campaign and john heilemann and mark halperin are long-missed guests of this show and "all due respect" on bloomberg. start with katy, what trump is up to, and you guys think of them, the best fights i tonight. >> i think donald trump is -- >> herb sugar, the boxing game. >> think trump has been focus old his polls today, the first half of the day, saw him tweet about his polls. i think his campaign wants him to focus on the debate tonight because that's really important. i think he needs to come out there. >> like mirror, mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all? is he like the old queen who is, like, dying because he is not the fairest anymore? >> i think he was highly focused on the coverage he was getting today, tweeting about some of our reporters, about reports. >> i don't mean it that wake heilman. i feel like i'm in high school here. >> your word. >> still means something in history. yeah? >> i think we have seen a quieter trump in the last few hours, i think what they are

trying to get him to do is focus on their message, like differentiate himself from the other candidates, especially ben carson, how he is going to be a good president because he is going to be good at creating jobs and negotiating and how ben carson and the others won't be as good as him. >> why is trump the outside figure, the vaudevillian character, not seriously the guy who made, reportedly, $11 billion? why is he serious about beating his opponents with his strengths, which is the knowledge of the business world rather than worrying about who is up in the polls this day? >> well, look, he -- he is a dealmaker, right? one of the things we talk about four years ago with mitt romney, that romney wasn't really a business guy. he was a private equity guy, a finance guy. trump is not a guy who is connected to world -- the global economy. he is not connected to economic policy. he is connected to local, how do you make the deal? how do you get the development thing? s who back do you have to scratch? he understands how to get a lot of stuff done, but not on the macroscale. i don't think he is that savvy. >> people think he might be.

>> everybody here is business credentialed, he is a businessman, may know about this stuff, but he is not. a lot of stuff donald trump knows how to do and a lot of stuff he knows, but a lot -- >> who knows more -- >> more than the national. >> go to your partner, who knows more about the economy, just reading "the wall street journal" every day or this guy all the republicans out there, who knows more about the macroeconomy, the big picture? >> than trump? >> yeah. >> who can be in business and different jobs, i think the question is who do voters -- >> what are you going to do we have another economic recession and don't have the leverage of monetary and fiscal policy, what are you going to do without them? that is the question i would ask. >> trump is one, a lot of measures shall not just on the economy, voters think he is the best at it, republican voters, undergirding his rise in the polls in the horse race has voters saying best on the economy, best on foreign policy, best on dealing with putin. i think tonight, for these guys who want to overtake trump and carson it is about trade. can jeb bush convince republicans he cares about people like them? can jeb bush convince republicans he has ideas on the

economy? i think jeb bush tonight, asked about matchup, jeb bush versus jeb bush is among the biggest matchups. >> who is going to go at anybody else? anybody go after anybody else? >> i think donald trump will try to take on jeb bush, what carson is doing, is his favorite punching bag. i think what mark is saying, jeb bush needs to come out and not only have the detail to back himself up, but sound strong, not stem bell on h-- stumble on words. >> could he snuff him tonight? >> he could. >> you saw trump on nbc town hall on monday. that is what it was, a couple days ago. yes, my birthday. >> trump, like a shark smelling blood in the water, when bush was back in houston. and he was going right for all the things that make bush crazy, talking about, going back to mommy and daddy, counsel. trump was going for the kill, like i said, a shark who sensed that blood in the water. >> this was so high school, kidding about, said a minute

ago, going for mommy and daddy. >> it gets under bush's skin. over and over again that bush rises to that bait, it has worked for trump. it might be juvenile, but it's totally worked at the macrolevel. >> push him out of the race with big noise like that, just making fun of the kid so he doesn't show up at the school yard anymore? >> my fantasy in terms of good theater, jeb, really proud of you showing up for you tonight even though your mommy and daddy aren't here in the audience. >> that is preschool. let's just watch this, this job here, after jeb bush's recent whining on the campaign trail, his donors are losing patience. the "washington post" reports today that part of jeb's donor base could walk away after tonight. "some already-nervous bush donors will close their checkbooks if the ex-florida governor doesn't have a breakout moment." bush isn't exactly inspiring confidence, by the way, out there on the campaign trail. let's watch. >> the campaign's already

started, falling apart. >> blah, blah, blah. >> you know what they are saying? >> blah, blah, blah. a lot of really cool things i could do other than sit around being miserable, listening to people demonize me and me feeling compelled to demonize them. that is a joke. elect trump, if you want that. is he riding a horse in that picture? what's with that stand? that's call a man stand or something? >> good performance and rising poll numbers and since of strength, he can't raise his poll numbers tonight on the stage, but he better have a consistent performance. every time he talks, he needs to be good. >> if you were the blah candidate, bow say blah, blah, blah? i wouldn't bring up that word. >> i think it's striking. >> made the point he is no the having fun. he said ben he got in this race, he wanted to run only if he could run in a joyful way. he looked miserable throughout almost the entire campaign, never looked more miserable than now. if jeb bush doesn't have money anymore, what does jeb bush have? >> name. >> we have spent the year -- we have spent the year in iowa, new hampshire, other place and we have struggled to find a

republican voter who is enthused about jeb bush. i will tell you who i think you ought to go back to fight, another fight you will see tonight, they telegraphed the punch while bush was down in houston, i think jeb bush goes after marco rubio. and that -- >> why? >> because they see rubio as rising and taking up the space that bush hoped to occupy before. they have got a -- they think of rubio as a punk and that jeb bush is a senior guy and rubio used to carry his coattails. that's guy -- jeb may not be able to take trump out but thinks he could take rubio out on stage. >> say something like at least when i had a job -- jeb -- what's his name, marco, i showed up for work? >> he could say that. >> because i think the voters don't like a guy pulling a paycheck from the federal government for 180 a year and not showing up. >> i think comparing had time obama is something we will hear from the candidates. >> watch john kasich, he is going to go i think, really hard at both trump and carson, try to keep it on policy, but he is angry. >> kasich? >> not just that, case sic legitimately angry and realizes

he doesn't make a move soon on the national stage, he may not have a chance. >> bringing their pistols tonight. >> howard deal and bulwark put together. >> howard deal was a good and righteous man. thank you, katy tur and john heilemann and mark halperin. good to have you guys back. up next, much more from boulder. we are on site for the cnbc presidential campaign debate for the republicans. we will be joined bay one of the canned the das who took part in the earlier debate, senator lindsey graham is coming here. this is "hardball," the place for politics. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet?

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>> yeah, yeah, yeah. >> old hat. >> another murder. i mean, really. i do like "madam secretary." >> do you? >> i do, actually. >> don't just say that because it is a cbs show. >> well, no, because i watch "madam secretary" and i watch "good wife." >> ever call them up and say where is my residual check? >> welcome back to "hardball." that was hillary clinton last night on "the late show with stephen colbert." i think he was fabulous last night. you want to know what it is like in person, my experience, watch that shock the closest to the real-life hillary i have ever seen. wonderful person coming across there anyway, the former secretary of state is surging now in two new polls out of iowa, all-important first caucus state. nearest rival, bernie sanders, by hard to believe these numbers sometime, 41 points, according to monmouth university's poll of likely democratic iowa caucusgoers and that just came out yesterday. 41-point lead for her. and clinton leads sanders by 38 points in the college poll of

iowa. pretty consistent. also out yesterday. i'm here now the crucial general election swing state of colorado, purple state, where bam beat mitt romney in 2012 by just five points. always close in colorado and unpredictable. and hillary clinton wins the democratic nomination, her path to the white house will run right through this purple state. okay, joining me to talk about it is colorado's governor, the great john hicken lean, won two statewide elections in tough years for democrats nationwide u also joining me is nbc news' andrea mitchell, my pal, a lot of things, and former vermont governor howard dean, who supports hillary clinton. let's start with the howard dean supporters, our friend, howard dean. what do you think? everybody is getting on the bandwagon. are you early birds going to get a little angry now, these people joining up like tom carper, all these other people joining the hillary band wagon, gonna lose some -- lose some clout, won't ya? >> listen, the best clout is having your candidate win. so i'm delighted to have everybody come on who has seen

the light. i have to say, until you run those polls through the averages somebody like nate silver or 538 runs them through, i -- i am a little hesitant to believe there is a 40-point lead. you just got to keep your nose to the grind stone. when you're down, got to keep working. when you're up, got to keep working. see what happens. >> what does it look like out there, governor? hillary clinton looks like she has found her sea legs after the last debate. >> i think she has come across as the person she is. i think people are seeing that and seeing that she is not, you know, restrained. she is a natural person. people have always, you know, if you talk to people that knew them -- both president clinton and secretary clinton in the late '90s, more people gravit e gravitated to secretary clinton to just hang out. you hear that again and again. >> you know, i do think hillary has been constrained, as the governor said, constrained. do you think she has been like that? i think she has until last week or so. >> i think the campaign is

trying to reinforce this acce accessability and gafavorabilit among women, they are running new ads in iowa and new hampshire, all new ads what she has done. i think the best thing that happened to hillary clinton is the benghazi committee. the first poll and i am, as governor dean, a little bit suspicious of that number. 41 points, that's pretty -- >> wasn't that like a given -- a perfect platform for her to prove over 11 hours they don't have anything? >> but she was blessed by her adversaries, because there were plenty of arguments that could be made against the libya policy, against the way they toppled gadhafi without thinking about the vacuum that would ensue. you go after the policy questions. nobody really did in a sustained way. so, they had a -- all of their own separate conspiracy theories, no one followed up.

all these former prosecutors no the prosecuting a case. >> i thought it was interesting, howard dean, if you watch that for 11 hours, think that's why hillary is on top right now, she never looked angry. she never looked upset. and all the guys looked like silent movie bad guys, you know? their faces, you could turn off the sound and their looks were like canine against her. it was frightening. a great ad for the party, show the faces, pompio and jordan, these guys wolverine looks, we will get this person, you know, so frightening and she is looking back at them like a pro. >> she is also -- she is looking -- she is looking like the natural person she is. she is coming across -- people that have known her for years. >> governor dean, your thoughts about why they were so stupid as to give her 11 hours of television time free. >> well, here is the interesting thing, andrea mitchell is actually the person that started off, started this trend of actually looking at her as a

human being. i think she did her very first cable interview with andrea about foreign policy and other thens that she knows a lot about it and it was refreshing to stop the pack journalism of all the e-mail stuff and actually look at who she is. when you look at who she is, she is a pretty compelling person to be president of the united states. i have noknown her for 25 years much the reason-- 25 years. the ribbeason i endorsed her ea suspect because i don't like bernie sanders, i do, but i have known her and people look at her as a human being -- >> this isn't "reliable source" howie what's his name. are you blaming hillary's bad rollout for her book, "hard choices," are you blaming that on diane sawyer and terry gross and the other women interviewed her up front or on hillary? >> no, but that -- when she rolled her book out -- >> you say pack journalism.

what is this pack journalism shot of yours? >> has to do with the e-mail fascination. nothing to it. never has been. it was a story that was covered for four straight months, mindlessly, based on a whole bunch of stuff printed not true in some of the most reputable papers in the united states. >> the fbi isn't a part of the pack. >> the fbi -- >> the fbi -- >> hillary clinton -- >> continues -- and not -- not investigating hillary clinton, the security of the server but should point out the state department is going to be releasing thousands more pages this friday before the end of the month. and again, every month, they are going to be -- there are going to be people poring over these e-mails. she is not out of the woods yet on this. sta still a lot we don't know about it. a huge favor last march, if she had just come out that day at the security council, at the u.n., said, you know, i really screwed up. >> there are a lot of -- >> shouldn't have done that. >> correct the record and media matters working for hillary. this idea some evil forces

against them, a lot of countervailing forces out there? >> i don't think evil forces, i think lazy forces. >> she has allies in the media. >> thank you, governor john hickenlooper. andrea mitchell and howard dean. we will be right back after this. to my plan. including preservision areds 2. my doctor said preservision areds 2 has the exact nutrient formula that the national eye institute recommends to help reduce the risk of progression of moderate to advanced amd... after 15 years of clinical studies. preservision areds 2. because my eyes are everything.

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i'm millissa rehberger. here is what is happening. an unmanned military blimp broke loose from its tether earlier, dragged a long, heavy cable for miles that uprooted utility poles and uprooted utility lines it came down in a wooded area of pennsylvania. the house passed the budget deem, raises the dealt limit through 2017. it heads to the senate. >> and a britain's prince harvey in the u.s. and he joined the first lady and jill bind on a visit to a virginia military

base that offers programs for wounded service members. now back to "hardball"." welcome budge to the university of colorado, the spin room, what it is called, the third republican debate, the top of this hour. the candidates who didn't qualify for the late debate is the happy hour debate, included bobby jindal of louisiana, senator santorum, governor george chris christie and senator lindsey graham of south carolina, none of whom meet the required 3% polling threshold. during that debate, senator graham slammed the democratic candidates and said the republicans need to nominate someone electable. >> at the end of the day, folks,

i am trying to solve a problem and win an election. i'm tired of losing. good god, look who we are running against, the number one candidate on the other side thought she was flat broke after her and her husband were in the white house for eight years. the number two guy went to the soviet union on his honeymoon and i don't think he ever came back. if we don't beat these people, who the hell are we gonna beat? >> well, governor chris christie formerly of new york, former three-term governor of new york, says clinton allowed state secrets to be obtained by foreign governments. >> hillary clinton put an unsecure server in her home as secretary of state. we have no doubt that that was hacked and that state secrets are out there to the iranians, the russians, the chinese and others. that alone should disqualify her from being president of the united states. >> well, former new york governor george chris christie joins us now. do you know if the bad guys -- the russians or the chinese got ahold of what hillary clinton had in her e-mail?

>> chris, i tell you i believe in one thing and that's common sense and when you look at all the secure government sites that have been hacked, there's no question in my mind, zero doubt, that her e-mail was hacked. >> how would they know how to get into it? >> the same way they got into -- >> how would they know she had a private server? >> by tracing what everyone else was doing, all her communications, government, came through that server and they were hacking and looking a the those government e-mails as well. we know that. >> with what degree of certitude do you make that claim? >> with 100%. >> 100%? >> i have no doubt that whether it's the russians, the iranians, the chinese, some people who are not friendly to our interests have access to that data. >> how do you carry on at zero percent in your candidacy? >> just continue to make the case that you got to win this race. you know, the two leading republican candidates, we have one guy who says he is going to deport 11 million people. another a week ago saying he is going to get rid of medicaid and medicare. they can't be the nominee. people get serious about this, i hope they will look --

>> when will that happen? because i'm waiting for the november to come into your party's head beginning to come n >> i think so >> people say, wait a minute this is a clown show, this is just fun, isn't how much you can beat inside, the establishment, got we got to beat hillary. >> i think that's exactly right, chris, it hasn't happened yet, but i think it's beginning to happen. there's still not -- >> halloween coming, halloween, thanksgiving or christmas, which are you betting on? >> i'm betting on thanksgiving, things completely different. >> turkey day. thank you, governor george chris christie for coming on "hardball." i'm joininged by two surrogates for candidates taking part in the main event, dean parker here, national finance chairman of the carson campaign and former republican renowned u.s. congressman from pennsylvania, a force, john kasich. thank you. let me get into this. you're part of the current leadership. your guy's leading, right? >> we are. first place. >> why what is it about dr. carson, a brain surgeon, smart as they come that somehow makes him a leading figure in the race

for chief executive of the united states? >> i think you have to remember he is not only a brain surgeon, chris, he also served on the board of kellogg's for 18 years, costco 16 years, chairman of the board of another company, also founded a non-profit, one of the leading non-profits in the country, on top of 15,000 surgeries, taking a department from the bottom, the bottom of "u.s. news & world report" when he took it over to the top in 2009. >> so, he is a man of business. >> he has done business his whole life. medical, touching children's lives, just a part of his story. >> great, thank you. go to bob walker for a second. you are here for kasich. when does kasich think this will get serious? >> i think he thinks it is becoming serious now, that things are beginning to shake out in a way differently than they were even a couple of weeks ago. and we will see a lot of that happen now through kearse. >> we have got senator lindsey graham joining us now, fresh from the fight. senator graham, have a seat. you just gave a speech, we just watched it, so we can't resist it. >> bob, how are you doing? >> this fella here is backing a

guy in the front right now, he likes the way things are going, right? >> great. >> 50%. 50% of the republican voters are saying they like these two outsiders, mavericks, who never held office, that's carson and of course, trump. when is the other 50% going to be heard from? >> here's what i hope will happen, that we will nominate somebody who can win, 'cause winning matters. >> does that matter to the people out there voting? >> yes. >> it matters to me, because i don't want hillary clinton to be the next commander in chief. i think our foreign policy is in free fall. i think our economy is stagnant. if you are looking for change, she is not it. i think i've got the best resume, the energy. >> she basically is going to come out, bob walker and say i want to continue what we have been doing the last eight years. she is not running away from obama, maybe because joe biden said he is the irish cop on the beat. not get away from that continue and do better but not throw it away. how does she -- well, that makes her a target for you guys, right? >> sure, because the country is not experiencing the kind of

economic growth we need. the foreign policy, i agree with lindsey, is in a disastrous posture at the present time. i don't think you can continue down that road much longer. >> let's talk about something very practical, medicare. now, a lot of conservative republicans, like my dad, who is a moderate conservative, never liked the idea of socialism, all that. but once he turned 65, he really liked medicare, after working his butt off for 50 year, he finally got something for nothing, the way he looked at t coming to him used to make doctor appointment as part of his social life. a list of doctors to go see. you tell those people now, dr. carson is telling them, here is your prescription, we are getting rid of medicare after having paid for it your whole life, going to kill him. >> never said he is getting rid of t >> i'm sorry. help me then. >> he says he believes a health savings account is an option given for people to use. >> to get rid of medicare. >> did he not say get rid of it he said provide alternatives a choice, providing a choice. >> keep medicare for those who want it? >> look at all options.

>> keep medicare for those who want it? >> he will look at options. >> keep those who want it? >> look at options. >> bob walker, i think the stage turned. >> it l clearly, governor kasich believes that medicare is a strong underpinning for our country, as is medicaid. and that there are reforms that need to be done in order to bring down the cost but it is not something that we ought to be getting rid of. >> you know what reynold reagan -- george will once said that americans are conservatives they want to conserve the new deal. i'm not so sure they are ready to throw it out. >> here is the problem with medicare, the average person puts $1 in and takes $3 out. how do you fix that? >> they have to vote. >> all of us have done well. the most you pay in premiums for prescription drugs under medicare part d is like $108. i would ask americans in my income level to pay more into medicare, i would have medicare advantage, allow you to buy products no the traditionally sold by medicare, but the money

goes in the system. i wouldn't create an outside system. i would reform the system inside. and younger people going to have to work a little bit longer and chris, me and you are going to have to take a little bit less and pay a little more in or it goes broke. >> thank you. i will be fine. thank you, guys. thank you for coming on. united states senator lindsey graham of south carolina, dean parker here for dr. ben carson and bob walker, one of the great statesmen of pennsylvania history. much more from boulder in our preview of tonight's -- thaddius stevens, the two greatest congressmen in history. when "hardball" returns, after this. more "sit" per roll.

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technology empowers us it pushes us to go further. special olympics has almost five million athletes in 170 countries. the microsoft cloud allows us to immediately be able to access information, wherever we are. information for an athlete's medical care, or information to track their personal best. with microsoft cloud, we save millions of man hours, and that's time that we can invest in our athletes and changing the world. we're back in the aspirin room at the university of colorado for the republican presidential debate tonight. it's coming very quick. we're seeing an unprecedented gathering of dozens of conservatives and hispanic

groups. of course that's good for everybody. they came to deliver a warning, however, to republicans. >> heed our warning. don't expect us to come to your side during the general election. you are not with us now. we will not be with you then. you don't need our vote now? you won't have it then. you insult you are now, we will be deaf to you then. you take us for granted now, we will not recognize you then. maybe some candidates will leave that we will forget. let me be crystal clear, we won't. republicans needs those votes if they want to win the it general election. based on estimates of the composition of the 2016 electorate, the next gop wins the same share of the white vote, as mitt romney won in 2012, he or she would need to

win 30% of the nonwhite vote. that's a tall order. romney only got 17% of the romney vote in to 12. mccain won 19, well, steve schmidt was the senior strategist for john mccain's campaign, and mary lopez is the president of the hispanic leadership fund. thank you for coming on. talk directly now -- there's a lot of republicans watching tonight. what do they have to do specifically to get back in the game? >> well, i think they have half of it right. they have the border security part of it right. that of course is very important for national security reasons at a minimum. okay? now the second part they need is to get behind reforming the legal immigration system, because the truth is, the legal immigration system is a big government bureaucratic nightmare that should offend any conservative who consistently talks about small government. so that's what we want to see. the current system is a mess and it incentivizes the fact that we

have illegal immigration. that's what no one wants. >> well, let me ask about the republican party, do they see this as a problem -- just politi politics, like in philadelphia the old frank rizzo days, the more conservative candidate had to get a higher and higher percentage of the white vote until he, in frank rizzo's case had to get 87% to stand a chance against a minority candidate, which is way too high, and these numbers are getting out of hand. >> the only last time the has lost is the popular vote, the outlier is the bush election, 43% of the hispanic vote. its not mathematically possible for a republican to be elected to the presidency without getting 40% of the hispanic vote. one of the interesting aspects of the 2012 election was the collapse of the asian vote in addition to the collapse of the

hispanic vote. you look at a state like california that performed reliably for republicans through props 87, notoriously antiimmigrant legislation -- >> john mccain told me that. >> next year the republican party will become smaller in the state of california than declined state registrations. for the first time since 1854, its founding, the republican party in one of the states of the union will slip into a third-party status. that's the degree to which it alienated latinos in the state of california. this party knees rosario moran in the -- we want to be a big tent that welcomes people in. >> the house leadership, paul ryan said the immigration bill won't be on the floor until

half -- what did you think of that? >> well, i think it's interesting, but the fact is really barack obama has to shoulder a lot of the blame for that. he knew rewinding to about a year ago right after the elections, republicans had control of the house, and what did he do? he threw a grenade into that mix on purpose with the whole executive order, which clearly violated the law. >> i know, that's an argument. >> and poisoned the well for any type of reform. >> is there a deal with the two parties to make sure the democrats will keep the hispanic vote and the republicans will keep blowing it? >> ultimately there has to be a deal on on this, but not before this election. >> the simply bill was never enforced, but it was a good idea, it also said no more illegal hiring, and then they

never enforced it. could we have something like that? >> i think you do need a real enforcement measures. but if your goal is to actually fix this problem. >> i understand, but the republicans know that? >> not enough of them do. >> they can't say we're being really tough without giving hope to the people living here. >> some hispanic groups will, like the one i run. we're coming at it from a conservative perspective. >> this is one area where i think the country could fix the problem, you know, and they could say we'll have a liberal immigration policy, some e-verify system and we'll let the people live here. but at the same time like every country in the world we'll have a regular system of letting people in the country. >> but too many democrats would rather have this as a thank-you issue. >> thank you. guess what? you're right, because you are

right. i want to shake your hand and say good-bye. we'll be back later tonight. thank you both. the republican presidential debate is moments ago. tune in tonight, by the way -- by the way, please, as donald trump would say please watch it 10:00 p.m. even for a two-hour edition of "hardball." we're going to have a lot of the candidates, including kasich, rand paul, we're going to try to get them all here for a full analysis, a real autopsy of the best and worst of tonight. "all in with chris hayes" right now. tonight on "all in" -- >> being terminated from the richland county sheriff's department. the officer who flipped and dragged a students s. \s. >> this whole incident started by this student. and hillary clinton's tough