using executive action to make big changes to reform criminal justice laws. this is "mtp daily" and it starts right now. ♪ ♪ >> and hello from new york. i'm steve kornacki in for chuck todd. happy november to you. just seven hours now until election day 2015, and only 372 days until the 2016 presidential election. and the big drama on the trail is how jeb bush is now trying to reboot his campaign. but back in washington, it is actual policy leading the news, with president obama pushing hard on criminal justice reform and congress hoping to hammer out a big spending plan for transportation in house speaker paul ryan's first full week on the job. transportation secretary anthony fox is going to be here on that. all of that coming up, but first, let's hit the press box.

msnbc chief legal correspondent ari melber is here with more on the president's push. nbc's hallie jackson is in washington with the latest on the debate over the republican debates. we'll also talk to msnbc's benjy sarlin in florida following jeb bush's self-dubbed fix it tour. but we start with president obama's big push on criminal justice reform. visiting newark, new jersey today, he called on congress to pass bipartisan criminal reform legislation, and a series of programs to re-integrate the incarcerated back into the community. >> when you meet folks who are taking that step to break addiction and overcome great odds, and you see what they've already accomplished, and what more they're going to accomplish in the future, you cannot help but feel hopeful about the

future. that's why today we're taking two new actions to create more success stories like this. >> the president then sat down with msnbc's lester holt for an exclusive interview and here's a brand new preview of what he had to say. >> i am very proud that my presidency can help to galvanize and mobilize america on behalf of issues of racial disparity and racial justice. but i do so hoping that my successor, who's not african american, if he or she is not, that they'll be just as concerned as i am. because this is part of what it means to perfect our union. >> and you can see the first part of that interview tonight on "nbc nightly news." joining me now on what the president announced in newark today is msnbc's chief legal correspondent ari melber.

ari, the president saying two executive actions there. what specifically is he doing, and in terms of just practical day-to-day impact, what's that going to mean? >> this is exciting. that interview is going to be exciting to watch, because it's a deep dive on the issues. he announced this morning he's banning the box for all federal hiring. that means, if you have a criminal record, it won't be the first thing the federal government finds out about you when you're an applicant. he's in new jersey, where chris christie already did this last year. in other words, there's been a big shift away from what was once a common sense thing. check the box, we want to know if you're a former convict. yet what we found in the data is that over the years, this became a way that employers would never look further. so you got people who come out of prison, they want to get a normal job, enter society, and they're totally barred. the doj tells us 60 to 75% of former convicts can't find a job

in the first year. he's also unveiling grants to try to do tech training and housing for re-entry. >> we say this is the one issue where it seems there's some exception to the partisanal issues in washington. these actions he's taking today, you said christie in new jersey did this, are republicans okay with this? is this going to have the impact his other executive actions have had? >> it's a great question. because they will say, even if we might agree with this in theory, you should come to the congress. but there hasn't been that much. the state level reforms has set the tone. chris christie said, i led before he did. we've seen grassley, rand paul, and mike lee pushing the sentencing reform bill. and white house officials are optimistic that will pass, to reduce some sentences. so there's a real sense of

momentum from the state level and in washington. i think the real question is whether mitch mcconnell wants to take credit for actually getting something done at this juncture. >> thank you, ari melber. nbc's lester holt did sit down with president obama today for an exclusive interview, you can see the first part of that interview tonight on "nbc nightly news." turning now to the campaign trail where jeb bush is hitting the reset button. he's hitting it hard with a full day of florida events before heading to south carolina and new hampshire. now on sunday, bush told chuck he's not worried about poll numbers and hand-wringing among his supporters. >> my mission is to be able to share who i am and give people a sense that i got a backbone, and i got a heart and a brain. >> why hasn't that penetrated yet? >> because it's early. patience. you gotta be patient. >> what did yogi berra say?

it's getting late early this time. do you feel that way? >> i don't feel that way at all. three months to go for the campaign and i'm going to run hard. when i have these events where you're one-on-one, listening to people, talking to people, town hall meetings that are growing in new hampshire, i feel pretty good about where we are. and we just started to advertise, and the right to rise pac seems to be doing advertising as well. >> and the so-called jeb can fix it tour has a new edition. politico reports he's picked a new chief operating officer, a familiar face to the bush who served as director of administration in george w. bush's 2004 campaign. as bush tries to reboot on the trail, he's offering this message. >> the challenges we face as a nation are too great to roll the dice on another presidential experiment, to trust the rhetoric of reform over a record

of reform. >> that obviously a not so subtle jab at marco rubio. their rivalry coming to a boil during last week's debate and now they are trading off new endorsements. rubio has nabbed billionaire paul singer. but rubio's former chief of staff is now backing bush. joining me on the phone is nbc's benjy sarlin. it's interesting to me to listen to the themes that jeb bush is pressing today, saying we don't want to roll the dice on somebody who's untested. he's trying to sell experience here. i'm wondering how much experience matters to a republican electorate that seems so enamored with outsider candidates right now. and also when he presses this experience theme, he's reminding voters how long he's been on the political stage. he was governor of florida, 10, 20 years ago, almost. >> exactly. the big problem for jeb bush and it's been this way the entire campaign, that his experience

and family connections are a double-edged sword, but at the same time, they're what keep him trapped in this kind of establishment view, to many republicans, and when they really seem to want something else, even something radically different like ben carson or donald trump with no experience at all. jeb bush talked about how he was an agent of change in florida and presented his record as someone who showed up and shook up the establishment in their state, rather than being the tool of the establishment. so it will be interesting to see whether that takes. but he's certainly walking a balancing act between touting his experience but also trying not to get sucked into this idea that he's the wrong kind of experience or the old kind of leader. >> that's jeb bush at an event in jacksonville.

north of there, jacksonville, on his way in the coming days, as we say to some of those key early primary states. benji, thanks so much. donald trump's campaign tells nbc news they will negotiate terms for future debates directly with television networks. but the campaign maintains they have been doing that all along. this comes after that three-hour closed door meeting last night between most of 2016 republican campaigns, designed to change the parameters of future debates. nbc obtained a draft of demands that include everything from camera angles to room temperature. ben ginsburg, who has negotiated details for debates for the rnc in the past, distributed the sample letter and moderated the discussion last night. none of the campaigns have signed off on this letter. the republican national committee was not invited to the campaign confab.

but chairman reince priebus said they have not been left out. >> the truth s we're involved, we're in control, we're setting the calendar. in fact, if what happens from last night goes forward, i think it's exactly where we want to be. >> and for their part, the rnc announced their chief operating officer would be the liaison to assist with debate negotiations, which was a part of the conversation on the trail today. >> i'm just gonna say, i think the rnc has some cleaning up to do. i think they're in the process of doing that, and i expect them to be a very valuable partner going forward. >> do you think chairman priebus needs to go? >> i think chairman priebus is demonstrating that he understands the distress that all the candidates are feeling and he's willing to work with us in order to alleviate the situation. >> you know, 20 million people are watching the republican primary debates and that's a lot of people, it makes a lot of money for the networks. i think that leverage should be

used to get objective broadcasters, or moderators. >> after last week's cnbc debate, the rnc suspended a partnership with nbc news and telemundo for a february primary debate. cnbc and telemundo are sister networks of msnbc and nbc. hallie jackson is in d.c. the meeting last night, now the trump campaign saying they're negotiating directly, but hey, we've been doing that all along. we know there's a debate next week. it sounds like the same format we've been seeing will apply for that, but to future debates past that, are we getting any picture of the form they'll take? >> you're right, the next debate is next tuesday. so what we're hearing from a lot of campaigns, it's too soon to make changes before that one. so we're looking to the next series of debates that begin in december. here are some of the things they would like to see. first, they'd like to see more

control or more knowledge about the format, how long it's going to be, who's moderating and a conference call before the debate. this speaks to the frustration among some campaigns they've been left in the dark about even who's participating before some of the debates happen. the other thing these campaigns want to see, 30-second minimum, opening and closing statement. no lightning rounds, no gotcha questions, when you do, boom, boom, boom, fast q & as. and they'd like approval of graphics and bios, a lot of that sparked that jeb bush only had his last ten years, which was consulting with different banks. >> a lot of this is coming about because the candidates have more leverage. these debates are pulling in huge numbers. the last three debates have been the highest rated programs for each of the networks that have hosted them.

this is not your first rodeo, i know. you know the last couple cycles, when you get those early primary debates, they're interesting. political insiders watch them. fine. these debates, you're seeing them capture the attention of huge swaths of the american population. that's why you're seeing them take a more involved role in these things. >> it's almost like sporting event spectacle or something. >> must-watch tv. >> and the rnc made this determination, they said the debates in 2012 really hurt mitt romney. so we're going to seize back control and make sure that doesn't happen. that's blown up in their faces now. >> and don't you think that's a result of this mood, this political landscape we're n of this anti-establishment force. outsiders like carson and trump, who are taking control of a lot of the energy of the party, at least among the base, and it feels like this is a function of that.

right? this revolt against party leaders, even though you're seeing folks like reince priebus say, we haven't lost control, we want to work with the campaigns, and have their backs moving forward. >> and what about, in terms of this issue, a two-tier debate. ten candidates on stage. some are saying, we should have rounds of five candidates each. the carson campaign, saying, put all 14 on the stage at once. trump doesn't want that. where does that land? >> that's not hammered out fully. you have remember who's asking for this. the undercard candidates would like to see more people on stage, one or two debates split randomly. that does very little to benefit the top-tier campaigns. and it's fascinating to me. you have the folks who are adversaries on stage, but they all have very different goals. they want their candidate to win. so whatever proposals they're pushing would need to benefit their candidate. that's what they get paid to do.

>> hallie jackson, thanks so much. ben ginsburg who steered the debate meeting last night will be chuck's guest right here on "mtp daily" tomorrow. meanwhile, the democratic candidates are preparing to gather again on the same stage this friday. my colleague, rachel maddow will moderate the first in the south democratic candidates forum on friday at 8:00 p.m. coverage kicks off friday 8:00 p.m. eastern only here on msnbc. coming up, speaker paul ryan's first big test. and next, the mystery of what brought down a russian airliner in the desert of egypt. we'll have the latest from cairo. stay tuned. a beast. once he hits the hole and breaks through the secondary,

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>> the u.s. is now offering to help russian and egyptian

authorities as they work to determine what caused a russian plane to crash in egypt's sinai desert over the weekend, killing all 224 people on board. today an official from metro jet, that's the airline that operated the flight said the crash could only have been caused by an external impact, ruling out a mechanical failure or pilot error. a group affiliated with isis said they downed the plane, but that claim has been dismissed by russian and egyptian officials. and today the u.s. director of intelligence said while it's unlikely isis has the capacity to shoot down the airliner, he's not ruling out terrorism. >> we don't have any direct evidence of any terrorist involvement yet. isil in a tweet claimed responsibility for it. and there's a very aggressive isil chapter in the sinai.

but we really don't know, and i think once the black boxes have been analyzed, which they recovered, then perhaps we'll know more. >> and nbc chief global correspondent bill neely is in cairo with more. >> yes, hi, steve. there are several crucial pieces of evidence that investigators are working on. first of all, those two black boxes. they've been downloading the data here in cairo today. but we understand they haven't yet analyzed the contents. then there's the debris field itself. that wreckage spread over such a wide area is a treasure trove of clues. each one of the pieces of debris will yield its own evidence, as well as the basic things left behind by the passengers, such as suitcases. and then there's the previous accident involving this plane. 14 years ago, as it landed here in cairo, its tail hit the tarmac. now, it was repaired, but in

previous incidents, tail strikes have been known to have weakened the air frame and to have resulted twice in deadly crashes within 20 minutes of a takeoff. so investigators will be looking at those hard facts. but you can't rule out terrorism as well. james clapper, the director of national intelligence, wouldn't rule it out today when he was asked, and the russians haven't ruled it out either. it would seem unlikely that a missile could strike the plane at 31,000 feet, but it's not impossible that a bomb was smuggled onto that plane. it is a mystery, but hard facts for the investigators to work on. a terrible mystery still for the families of the 224 people on board who still don't know why their loved ones died. steve? >> that was nbc's bill neely in cairo. in just a minute, transportation secretary anthony fox joins me on the congressional roadblocks facing the highway bill. you're watching "mtp daily."

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>> it is paul ryan's first full week as speaker of the house and already he's facing his first big test. today the house starts consideration of a giant six-year, $325 billion highway and infrastructure bill. this is a bill that has faced a notoriously bumpy road in the past. consider the number 35. that's the number of times the existing highway program has been temporarily extended since 2009. most recently just last week. the current extension runs until november 20th, putting a countdown clock on efforts to find agreement. even though it can be a primary source of well paying jobs and can fix crumbling infrastructure, the bill is known to cause consternation amongst conservatives who want fiscal discipline and it's caused no shortage of discipline from the president who chastised

congress when he signed an extension back in july. >> we can't keep on funding transportation, you know, by the seat of our pants. we can't have bridges collapsing and potholes not being filled because congress can't come up with an request plan to fund our infrastructure budget for more than three or five or six months at a time. >> nbc's luke russert joins me now from capitol hill. so, luke, how big a priority is this for the new speaker to get something more than another patchwork deal done on transportation funding and what are his odds are success at getting something substantive here? >> it's a big deal for paul ryan. what's underreported here, what he was chairman of the house ways and means committee, he did a lot of work on the transportation bill. he thought it could be part of some long-term income tax revision and code revision, tax reform if you will. but in this case, particularly, he's going to have a really

interesting road to navigate. because one of the things that paul ryan said was that he wanted to have an open process, regular order. well, i was just talking with some folks close to the house rules committee and over 250 amendments were offered to the house rules committee, which dictates how many amendments are added to a bill. and the possibility is you're going to see probably 100 plus amendments go forward. we don't know if they'll be controversial, but the import/export ban could be on there. he himself opposed it. so that's the issue at hand here, steve. >> luke russert, thank you for that. >> for more, i'm joined by anthony fox. mr. secretary, thanks for joining us. brand new house speaker now, paul ryan. he's just getting started. do you have a sense, does the administration have a sense that anything will be different now because paul ryan is in this job? >> well, look, i think we owe it

to the new speaker to give him a chance to get something done here. this is a really important issue for the country. as you know, we have too many potholes in this country, too many folks stuck in traffic all the time. and this is an issue that's bipartisan. it's an issue that is straight down the line bread and butter apple pie america and i'm hoping the house passes a robust transportation bill that will set us on a course to adjust the grobl we'll have over the next 30 years. >> has he given you any signal that he can do this and that he wants to do this? >> i think there's absolutely an interest in doing this. i've been to janesville in his district and seen the fact that they have transportation issues back in his home district. so i'm confident that he would like to get something done here. i think the devil is in what does it look like? is it big enough for the challenges we face as a country? and again, i think he's got to go big. >> just speak, if you would,

from a more practical standpoint, in terms of the difference between having one big transportation funding bill, versus we say, there have been 35 or whatever it is, temporary fixes in the last six, seven years. practically speaking, for people trying to get around in this country, what is the difference there? >> well, we've had extensions of two months, three months, ten months, just in the last year or so. and there are very few projects of that length that will make an appreciable difference in people's travel times. on the other hand, if you have a bill of multiple years, you can get big projects done that will move the ball forward and get america moving again. that's really the big difference. whether the states and the local governments that do projects have the confidence to invest money knowing they'll have multiple years of funding to be able to get projects done. >> one sticking point potentially here, a democratic congress from oregon wants to

increase the gas tax to pay for more transportation. more of these big transportation programs. currently it's about 18.4 cents a gallon. he wants to tack on more. paul ryan says no. what do you say to that? >> i think congress is continuing to struggle with how to pay for this. i don't think there's wide political support for a gas tax increase in congress be based on conversation i've had. but i think the congressman from oregon is right on point to try to push for a bigger bill. so that we have the resources in place to get america moving. how it's paid for is a different question. >> well, that is the question. if it's not going to be the gas tax, and you want something big ticket, do you have another idea how to pay for it? >> we have had an idea and we were working with then chairman of the house ways and means committee paul ryan on an international tax reform idea that would have brought back proceeds from overseas, that corporations are holding over

there back home and put to work for infrastructure. unfortunately the timing doesn't appear to be on point for doing that, but we'll continue to work with congress as these ideas move forward. >> all right, anthony fox, thank you. up next, the who, the what, the where, the when, and the why in today's headlines, including what colorado senator cory gardner has to say about marco rubio's presidential bid. and we are one year out from the presidential election, but it's still a big election day across the country. tomorrow, we'll have special coverage all day. so go vote then and tune in.

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has sunk his campaign. but he says he will continue to fight for political reform. now to the what. it is a key endorsement from marco rubio. cory gardner is endorsing his republican senate colleague. he becomes the first senator to publicly back rubio. gardner, a young gop senator from a purple state is a big get for the rubio campaign. and today's where. that takes us to ohio's eighth congressional district, john boehner's stomping ground, where a special election is sit to fill his seat. voters in western highway will head to the polls on june 7th of next year to elect a congressman to serve out the remainder of boehner's term. and the winner of the special election won't get much time off the trail. that person will then need to run for the same seat just a few months later in november of 2016. and turning now to the when. it is more elections tomorrow. we'll be watching governors races in kentucky and in

mississippi. got our eyes on state houses all across the country. tune in tomorrow to "mtp daily" and msnbc all day for super tuesday coverage, for the latest results and analysis. and finally the why. one more vote to watch tomorrow. it is not for an elected office. an equal rights ordinance is on the ballot in houston to extend the same protections to houston's lgbt community. similar measures exist in 17 states and more than 200 municipalities. as for the why, opponents of that proposition are dubbing it the bathroom ordinance. because they fear that men will claim to be transgender to access women's rest rooms. supporters of the measures they those instances are virtually non-existent and that kind of talk is discriminatory fear mongering. thousands of dollars have been spent by activists on both sides of the campaign. it could go either way.

interesting to note, if you look at the governors race in kentucky tomorrow, gay rights may also factor there. the case of kim davis, the county clerk in rural kentucky who refused to issue licenses to same-sex couples wanting to get married. that's come up there. matt bevin has been pressing his support for kim davis. he runs a few points behind in the most recent polls. we'll seal if that support translates into election day bump for him. keep an eye on houston and kentucky if you want to see a result that has to do with the gay rights issues tomorrow. up next, more unseen footage from chuck's exclusive interview with jeb bush. but first, the cnbc market wrap. >> stocks begin november with solid gains, dow rose 165 points, s&p 24, and the nasdaq,

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as jeb bush aims to reset his campaign, chuck caught up with the candidate in miami this weekend for "meet the press," but you didn't get to see all of it on sunday. like what bush said about the need for a surge in syria, or what he said about his rivals like donald trump and ted cruz, who say, without the invasion of iraq, we wouldn't have isis. here's what you didn't see on

tv, at least not yet from chuck's interview. >> the syria decision by the president to put some boots on the ground. you've advocated a little bit more robust response in syria. what would you be doing? >> well, first of all, i'd have a strategy that would be outlined. the president has really openly, honestly said two times in the last year, that he doesn't have a strategy. it's this incrementalism that i'm troubled with by the president. he should speak with authority about what the strategy is. i do applaud him for engagement with the special operators, but we can't get into a quagmire. there should be a really strategy to take out isis and to take out assad. this has all been made a lot more complicated with the russian involvement. >> is it isis or assad, or both? >> it's both. >> so you would pursue a strategy getting rid of assad and dealing with isis. >> and having a political solution that would create stability in a place. 250,000 people killed by both sides. christians being murdered

because of their faith. moderate muslims that believe in their faith that are being raped and held as slaves. this is a tragic case of inaction by our own country and chaos in this place. and so i think we need to be engaged with safe zones. and air power to be protecting the safe zones. both for the refugees, as well as a fighting force that there should be a unified effort in the region. the saudis and the turks and others need to join us. the europeans seeing the consequence of millions of refugees coming towards them should be engaged as well. we should be leaders, this is what america does best. >> do you accept some of the analysis that says without the invasion of iraq we wouldn't have isis? >> no, i don't. isis was created after al qaeda in iraq was taken out. >> you don't think losing the stability of the strong men in the middle east, no matter what we thought about them, gadhafi,

saddam, assad, some in your party, donald trump is one of them. >> that's a convenient argument. >> even ted cruz is one of them. >> that's a convenient argument. the better argument is, the surge work periedworked. a fragile iraq existed. had we engaged to show support to the central government and show support to the kurds and armed them directly, we would have a very different circumstance as it relates to isis. the caliphate was created after al qaeda was taken out. >> so the surge worked. do you think we need a new surge in syria and iraq? >> a different serve. we have to do what the president is tepidly moving towards, embed with the iraqi military. i think we need to arm the iraqi kurds. we need to reengage with the

tribal leaders. but we need to make sure that iraq is ultimately leading the effort to take out isis in their territory. >> and you can head to the "meet the press" website for chuck's full interview with jeb bush. still ahead, why ohio's potential pot plans have these two musicians singing very different tunes. and tomorrow, as part of msnbc's super tuesday election day coverage, i'm going to be taking your questions on facebook. you're watching "mtp daily." we'll be back after this. . you like that pretzel? yea. 50% more data for the same price. i like this metaphor. oh, it's even better with funnel cakes. but very sticky. get 15 gigs for the price of 10. and now get $300 credit for every line you switch. now at at&t diis critical for brain health?n brain food, hmmm.

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after months of violence and political chaos, the president of turkey is calling on the world today to respect their election results, which keep him in power. president erdogan saying, is this your understanding of democracy? now a party with some 50% in turkey has attained power. this should be respected by the whole world. but i have not seen such maturity. the election result means erdogan's islamist akp party retains its majority in parliament and he keeps his position as president which was an unexpected victory. he called for a snap election after an election in june failed to produce a coalition government. telling voters, they had a choice between him or chaos. voters blame erdogan for

polarizing the country after he referred to his opponents as terrorists. "mtp daily" will be right back. the future belongs to the fast.

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no matter who shows up. [cricket sound] richard. didn't think you were going to make it. hey sorry about last weekend, i don't know what got into me. well forgive and forget... kind of. i don't think so! do you like nuts? >> when it comes to presidential politics, it's known as a purple state, but could ohio soon be famous as the pot barron capital of the country? tomorrow ohio voters are set to decide issue three. it would make recreational marijuana legal in the buckeye state. but there's a big twist here. nearly all large-scale cultivation would be restricted to just ten designated farms in the state. the owners with an initial stake of this pot of gold are

unsurprisingly the same people who are bank rolling the initiative, and they are quite the bunch. including former 98 degrees star and reality tv alum nick lachey and nanette lepore, oscar robertson, frostee rucker. and for a dose of history, a couple of great, great grand nephews are former president and ohio native william howard taft. but not all the star power is on their side. legal pot advocate willie nelson is among those speaking out about big pot consolidation. and to make it more complicated, another ballot on the measure invalidates any amendment that gives the state the right to grant a monopoly, in other words cancelling out the legal pot measure. for help bringing it all down, i'm joined by jackie borchard. jackie, thank you for joining us. couple years ago, we had straightforward votes in colorado and washington to

legalize marijuana in those states. this is much more complicated in ohio. tell us about the politics of this year. because on the one hand, this legalizes marijuana in the state, legalizes the production of marijuana in the state, but on the other hand, this creates ten corporate giants. >> you're right. and ohio, as you mentioned, is typically a battleground state, but as far as marijuana legalization goes, we're not close to that point that you saw in colorado and washington. we've had several groups that have been try, some for years, to legalize marijuana at least for medicinal purposes. but the efforts have failed. getting on the ballot in ohio is a very expensive proposition, so what you saw is a group of investors deciding to pool their money together to pay for a ballot initiative to legalize marijuana. that's why we're seeing an issue in ohio, in 2015, which is an

odd year to put a marijuana legalization on the ballot. >> the proponents of legalizing marijuana and the potential to make a lot of money on this i understand they have spent heavily. they heavily outspent the opposition on this. who is the opposition? >> they raised more than $20 million. they pledged to spend that much on their campaign. the opposition is a wide coalition of groups, including your medical professional associations, law enforcement, children's hospitals, mental health agencies and advocates. also a lot of people in the faith community, a lot of pastors, council of churches. it's a very broad, wide group of people that normally don't, not all these people see eye-to-eye on most things. in this group you have the green party of ohio and libertarian

party of ohio along with the republican party of ohio. as you can see, it's not just about marijuana legalization. it's more about the specifics of this proposal and whether it's right for ohio or not. >> quickly, is there a sense from the polls, is this likely to pass or fail? we saw a lot of undecided voters. >> right. there has been polling in the state by several universities. most of the polls show that ohioans strongly favor legalizing medical marijuana. 9-10 in one poll. they are just over the 50% mark for recreational legalization. however, the specific polling on issue three has shown that voters are divided. that support is somewhere in the mid 40s as well as pop situation. the big wrench in this is issue 2, which you mentioned earlier, which would, supporters say nullify issue 3 in case both don't up getting a majority of votes tomorrow.

the polling on that is all over the map. some as low as 40%, some as high as 66%. it's too close to call. >> sounds like it could pass and get invalidated all on the same day. jackie, thank you for joining us. ohio's potshot is just one of the races we'll keep a close eye on tomorrow. msnbc will have special super tuesday election day coverage throughout the day. up next in "the lid," the latest polls spell trouble for trump.

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time now for "the lid." new poll numbers in the early primary states show the race is starting to take a different shape. in iowa, the latest monmouth poll shows ben carson pulling out way ahead of donald trump. in new hampshire, donald trump is still on top. look at marco rubio. he has jumped nine points and tripled his support. donald trump and ben carson dropping a few points there the primary landscape for republicans is showing signs of shifting rapidly. ashley parker for "the new york times." senior political writer for buzzfeed. we knew last week trump was starting to get in trouble in iowa. he led there a while. carson caught him in a bunch of polls. he is still ahead over ben

carson. marco rubio suddenly moving from 4 to 13 there. he is getting traction. if you look closer, the negative rating for donald trump among republicans in new hampshire, that has gone up in the last two months, too. there's trouble sign for him in both those first two states. >> there are signs that trump's act has started to have a little less influence or power than it did earlier in the cycle. in the most recent debate, one count i saw said he only got about 9:30 toll time speaking at that debate. you can blame that on the moderators as all the candidates have. trump wasn't seizing the spotlight the way he has in past debates. that put him in fourth place in terms of how the candidates speaking time. in iowa, specifically i saw the contracts tabs on one poll that showed he was doing much worse with women than ben carson was. also much worse with evangelicals. those are two voter groups you

see driving ben carson's surge past donald trump. >> i almost hesitate to go down this road. people have been writing obituary for the trump campaign since it began. i'm not trying to do that here, but looking at this thinking back to rudy giuliani in 2007. he led the national polls throughout 2007. where you saw the slippage was iowa. then new hampshire. by the end of the year he's retreating to florida, even though he's still ahead in the national polls. i wonder if maybe we are seeing signs of that here? >> sure. oftentimes the candidate leading at this moment is not the one who ends up leading at the end and gets the nomination. i will say one thing is donald trump has not aired a single paid ad. he is going to be on "saturday night live" this weekend. i have to wonder as he starts slipping and he talked about going up on the air with ads what happens when he goes up with a positive ad or even when he starts attacking someone like

marco rubio who is encroaching on him, how does that change the dynamic? >> the other dynamic is bush and rubio, both going at each other. one of the old reliable formulas in politics. your opponents kill each other and you rise up to the top. >> this is somewhat of a political cliche. it holds true in the establishment lane of the primaries if they are divided into lanes, jeb and rubio are competing for the same voters. they are competing for establishment support, establishment money and establishment mainstream republican voters. as we saw the last debate where jeb had this premeditated attack on rubio, if we see those two campaigns fixate on each other, it does open up space for not just trump but carson and other outsiders candidates. >> that's the other one, cruz in iowa. >> his strategy all along, everybody talks about rubio's

under the radar strategy, but cruz has been doing that under the radar. he said early on, i'm going to turn out evangelical voters in iowa. that's what he's quietly doing. >> thanks for joining us. chuck will be back tomorrow with an election day edition of "mtp daily." stick with msnbc tomorrow for session super tuesday coverage. at 6:30, brand-new "wall street journal" poll numbers on the presidential race. developing news right here on msnbc. just moments ago, president obama pushing on criminal justice reform. his focus today, helping reintroduce former convicts back into their communities. >> when you meet folks who are taking that step to break addiction and overcome great odds, you cannot help but feel hopeful about the future. >> also in 2016, poll continuing, new detai