have talked about it ad nauseam, so i don't know that i'm plucking it out. but i do think, add up the trump and carson number in the first choice, add up carson, first and second choice, 50%, chuck. that's a remarkable number. i think everyone who's saying, let's just wait until this sorts out, jeb bush will be the nominee, i'm not sure that that's how it's going to play out. >> i agree. i think the experts need to take a step back. jamiel and chris, thank you both. we'll be back tomorrow with "mtp daily." steve kornacki continues our super tuesday coverage, right now. it is super tuesday right now on msnbc and we have got you covered this election day. we are one year away from the 20106 presidential election and ben carson and hillary clinton lead the pack in their parties. but a lot can happen in 365 days. plus -- >> i will not put american boots

on the ground in ysyria. >> president obama struggling to deal with problems in the middle east. are we better off now than we were eight years ago when it comes to foreign policy? and the politics of pot. ohio voters to legalize both marijuana for medical and recreational purposes. that's on the ballot out there today. but has the buckeye state already changed the legalization game? hi, everybody. i am steve kornacki. and we start one year out from the big election. and we thought we would take a step back as we mark this occasion, take a look at where these races stand right now on the democratic side, not on the republican side, and say, how did they look in past elections? what can we learn from where we've been and how can we apply it to where we are right now? so let's start with this. where does the republican race stand right now? the newest nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, you've probably been seeing this a lot today. ben carson is now in first

place. he is your new national front-runner, at least according to our poll. donald trump behind him at 23%. rubio and cruz, the only others to hit double digits. keep in mind, most of this poll was actually conducted before that debate last week. so it's rubio who got some great reviews, cruz who seemed to have a really good movement. if they're going to get traction out of that debate, not necessarily going to pop up in this poll. so right now, carson in first, trump in second. everyone else chasing them. we asked the question, though, at this same point in the most recent republican presidential primary races, where do those races stand. look back in 2012, herman chaai was out the front. john mccain in third place. on that herman cain, something to keep in mind.

a lot of people compare herman ca cain. trump has been at or near the top for more than three months now. already he's proven more durable than herman cain. now let's take a look at the democratic side. this is the new poll an this race. hillary clinton had a fantastic october. she's up, since the end of september, she's up nearly ten points, now doubling up bernie sanders, 62 to 31%. clinton has also gotten some great news in the early states, iowa, where she'd been in a close race with sanders, she's now expanded her lead significantly there. and in new hampshire, where sanders had been ahead, hillary clinton, we're now seeing polls that put her back in first place there. so that debate performance she had, that performance before the benghazi committee, october seems to have been a very good month for hillary clinton. we can look back, though. where did the democratic race stand the last time there was a competitive democratic contest, at this time in the campaign? that would be in the fall of the

2007, hillary clinton was doubling up, barack obama then, of course, you remember, barack obama, once he won iowa, once he won those iowa caucuses, the numbers really turned dramatically for him nationally. some of those key states, especially. south carolina, so, obviously, that would be the hopeful example that the bernie sanders campaign would be pointing to right now. but that is quite a high bar that barack obama set in 2007 and 2008. so, that's where we stand right now. that's where we've been. and joining me now to talk about how the race is shaping up for 2016, we have howard fineman, the global editorial director for the "huffington post," jackie kucinich, and msnbc contributor, jonathan capehart of "the washington post." welcome to all of you. howard, let me start with you. you've heard the line as much as anybody else, the donald trump phenomenon, the ben carson phenomenon, being written off as something we've seen before, whether it was newt gingrich or rick santorum or michele bachmann four years ago. the idea that it's a territory thing. the fact that it's gone on as long as it has, are you now

looking at this and saying, trump, carson, one or both of them is something new and different? >> well, i think they're both new and different to some extent. i would say at this point, ben carson actually has a greater chance to stay the course. and i say that not just because of the numbers in the nbc poll, but because of the depth and the breadth of his grassroots support. he's raised a ton of money. most of it from small donors. he, in fact, leads fund-raising in many respects, certainly from small donors. he has a huge social media presence. and he's strong as onions in places like iowa. now, iowa does not the entire presidential campaign make. but as we all know, you can win iowa and then disappear. but he's more than that. as for donald trump, his staying power comes from the fact that nobody can garner free media attention like donald trump. up through and including "saturday night live" this weekend, but, you know, with his book, with his antagonism, with

his one-liners, with his savvy. so he's going to stick around as long as he wants to stick around. i'm not sure how many votes he'll get, but he's going to be a factor in se, at least through new hampshire. >> and jackie, when you look beyond carson and trump, the rest of this gop field, as we showed there, rubio and cruz the only others there in double digits, barely in double digits in our poll, who do you see outside of carson and trump as having the most breakout potential in this thing? >> well, rubio and cruz both had outstanding debate performances in the last republican debate. and they've been riding that. it really gives the chance for republican voters to see who has that fire that primary voters really love. but they have to take advantage of that movement. and we've seen some candidates not be able to do that. look at newt gingrich. he had an incredible debate performance in one of the debates, i want to say south carolina, which led him to win south carolina, because he had so much momentum. but then he went to florida and it didn't work out so well for him. so, really, it depends on how

they seize their moment. and right now look at the cruz and rubio campaigns, it seems like they are. i have to say, new hampshire, i know it's near and dear to your heart, steve, it is so fascinating to see what's happening there, because the last couple of republican races, it's really been a foregone conclusion. they love john mccain. they love mitt romney. we were pretty sure those two candidates were going to win new hampshire. this time, we don't know. it's really been an open question. >> you're right. that debate, it was, it was in south carolina last time around. it was newt gingrich and he was going after the moderators, something we saw a little bit in this cnbc debate as well. jonathan capehart, let me bring you in on one of the wild cards here on the republican side. certainly, marco rubio got some good news the other day when paul singer, a billionaire, one of the top republican donors, he has a network of allies of donors that will all sort of follow his lead, potentially. he endorsed marco rubio. a big boost for rubio. but when you think of big donors on the republican side, you think first of the koch brothers. charles koch gave an

interview -- both brothers gave an interview, and charles koch talked with joe scarborough on morning joe this morning. let's play that exchange. >> do you see a candidate out there -- >> not -- >> that's not -- >> not in great measure. >> not in great measure? >> i'm trying to be diplomatic. >> that is a very tactful way of -- >> yeah, that's pretty good. i worked hard on that. >> so let's do some more word association. i take it it's not donald trump? >> i'm not -- listen. i made a vow, i'm not going to publicly comment on any candidate. david said some nice words about walker. >> right. >> and that was written up that we were giving millions to his campaign. do you know how much we've given to his campaign? >> i hope none. >> zero. >> jonathan, this was a really interesting interview, because, you know, we think so much, we're sort of conditioned to think of the koch brothers as this sort of permanent part of

the republican party. you forget, david koch actually ran for vice president as a libertarian back in 1980. charles koch didn't really get active in politics until about 10, 15 years ago. he talked in this interview about being sort of soured by the experience of standing with george w. bush, feeling he let conservatism down. surprising to see, but made me wonder, are the koch brothers going to play any major role in the republican side inn ipickina candidate? >> you know, i think that's why mika and joe went down and had this interview with the kochs to try to suss out where they might throw their support, especially given the role they tried to play in the last few election cycles. but when you have charles koch there saying that he is trying -- he's been practicing his response to the question of who they would support, makes me wonder whether they will get into it. look, they can put in as much money as they want to behind a presidential candidate or behind lots of policy initiatives. but i think if none of the republican candidates is able to

wrangle any money from the koch brothers, it tells you what the koch brothers think of the republican field. last go around, we saw the republican candidates were relatively weak, compared to mitt romney. when you look at the field of -- how many are there left now? 14 candidates? and they still can't find anywhere there to support. that says a lot. and one other thing, steve, the person i'm most surprised by in the nbc poll there, who has not taken advantage of any of her debate performances, carly fiorina. she had a great undercard debate that got her into the big kids' table at the last debate. she rode a big wave of great reviews for her debate performances and her steeliness and there she is, down eight points. >> you see her don at 3% now. you're right. jackie, i want to shift a little to the democratic side.

as we were saying, october proved to be a very good month for hillary clinton and it seemed she reassured a lot of democrats and might have excited some democrats who weren't excited about her before. i guess does the october that hillary clinton just had, does it leave any room for bernie sanders to get back in this thing? >> hillary clinton is very strong, of course. but it doesn't look like there's going to be an obama-like figure to come from behind and take this from her. but i think if you talk to the hillary campaign, they're going to say, they're not going to take any chances. she was 20 points ahead at this time in 2007 and look what happened. they don't want that to happen again. bernie sanders has a fairly strong message with certain groups of the democratic party and particularly when you start talking about foreign policy and maybe some progressives that don't agree with hillary clinton's foreign policy, i think that's going to strengthen what bernie is saying, frankly. >> howard, let me save my favorite question for last, the

bottom line question. what do you think was the most likely matchup we'll be talking about a year from tonight? >> i have no idea. >> but i will say that often the conventional wiz.com gets it wrong, day by day and week by week and even month by month. but if you stand way back and look at the big picture, two things pop out. number one, it's difficult for the party in power in the white house to get a third term to get a third straight term, which would seem to make this an opportune year for republicans. and hillary's been around and a familiar figure, in a way, even though she would be the first female president. there's an opportunity here for the republicans, but so far, as the koch brothers were essentially telling joe and mika, the republicans have blown it. they don't seem to be anywhere close to the discipline, the maturity and the focus of the democratic race, when you include both hillary and bernie.

they're going to have an adult substantiative discussion. >> i think i'll write you down for an o'malley/pataki general election matchup. thank you all for joining us. >> thank you. >> and coming up, breaking news. one year away from the presidential election, a brand-new nbc poll shows a shake up in the race for the white house. we'll have more results from that poll, straight ahead. plus, how will foreign policy help shape president obama's legacy, as he prepares to leave the white house? and next year's elections have more wide-reaching implications than just the white house. could democrats take control of the u.s. senate again? we're going to talk to a leading democrat planning to challenge a republican for his seat. stay with us.

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the upcoming election is the topic of today's bing pulse question. the question is, should a political outsider win the white

house? go to pulse.msnbc.com to weigh in and you can keep voting throughout the show. we are going to share the results with you as we go. well that's why i dug this out for you. it's your grandpappy's hammer and he would have wanted you to have it. it meant a lot to him... yes, ge makes powerful machines. but i'll be writing the code that will allow those machines to share information with each other. i'll be changing the way the world works. (interrupting) you can't pick it up, can you? go ahead. he can't lift the hammer. it's okay though! you're going to change the world.

the implications for 2016 are huge. and not just for control of the white house. democrats have a unique opportunity when it comes to the u.s. senate as well. this, what you're looking at right thousanow, is a map of al the senate seats that will be up for election in 2016. right now ten of them are held by democrats and 24 of them are filled by republicans that gives democrats a potential advantage

with republicans playing defense so much next year. and on the senate floor, republicans right now have control of a total of 54 seats. democrats have 44, plus two independents, who caucus with them. essentially giving them 46. so that means democrats need to take back five seats next year to get control of the senate back. and the bigger the fight the democrats launch for the white house, the bigger the turnout could be among democratic voters for these senate races. joining me now is the former governor of ohio, ted strickland, who hopes to run against an independent republican for the u.s. senate next year, senator rob portman. governor, thank you for joining us, and your party, obviously, is going to be counting on you next year, if you're the nominee against rob portman out there in ohio. let me ask you just that bottom line question about how close the your race is attached to the presidential race. we know of ohio as sort of the swing state of all swing states. sl any scenario where you could win your senate race, where the democratic candidate, whether it's hillary clinton or somebody

else, isn't also winning ohio and the presidential race? >> well, steve, it's possible, but i think hillary clinton is going to win ohio in 2016. and i hope to win the senate race and i think, i think the democrats have a wonderful chance of regaining a majority control of the senate. i want to be one of those five that's necessary to make that happen. and i think i'm going to win this seat in 2016. >> well, let me ask you that, if the democrats do retake the senate next year, if hillary clinton or, again, whoever the democratic candidate is, does become president, it would still leave the house out there. the odds, everybody who looks at this stuff agrees, the odds of the democrats actually taking back the house, very, very small next year. and, you look back at the obama years, the only two years when the president was really able to move his agenda was the first two years when he had full control of washington. i wonder why you are looking at getting back into politics, looking at running for this office, what would that be look for you? if you're there and your party

controls the senate and the white house, you could still be a very frustrated person out there. >> steve, i think the most important issue facing our country in the next couple of years is which president and what congress or senate is going to reshape the supreme court of the united states. and certainly, the president nominates, the senate confirms. and that's so important, because if we get some more radicals on that court, i think everything that we really care about, as progressive democrats, would be at risk. abortion rights would be at risk, i believe. social security and medicare, as we know it, could be at risk. and so that's one of the reasons, not the only reason, but it's one of the reasons why i'm so determined to win this race. >> you know, barack obama has faced pretty united, pretty across the board opposition from republicans. you think back to bill clinton's presidency. he faced an awful lot of opposition from republicans. do you think there's anything that hillary clinton can do or is positioned to do to break through that gridlock that they

didn't? >> well, i think she'll certainly make a monumental effort to do that. hillary clinton wants to be president, to get things done. and i'm running for the senate because i want this government to work for the american people, for the middle class. and so those efforts will be made. but if the republican party continues to put forth the candidates they're putting forth as their nominee, potential nominee, i think it's possible to have a gully washer kind of election in 2016. and i'm not sure, under those conditions, the house would be totally out of play. i know it's, you know, it's a rough row to hoe, as we say in southern ohio, but a lot of things could happen. 2016 would be a watershed here. and i think if the republicans don't get their act together and it looks like they're not doing that, quite frankly, i think we could have a huge year for

democrats, win the senate, potentially win the house, win the presidency, and actually be able to move this country forward, in a meaningful, progressive way. >> all right. former ohio governor, ted strickland, now running for the u.s. senate, thank you for joining us tonight. >> thank you for having me, steve. all right. still ahead, president obama's policy shift on syria. how it will affect the next president's administration and what does it mean for the obama legacy? plus, why are a boy band member, a fashion designer, and an nba legend interested in a super tuesday elections? we'll explain, coming up. discover card

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ground troops will be deployed to syria to fight isis. president obama talked about his decision to send 50 troops to assist rebel groups last night with nbc's lester holt. >> this is just an extension of what we were continuing to do. we are not putting u.s. troops on the front lines, fighting firefights with isil. but i've been consistent throughout, that we are not going to be fighting like we did in iraq, with a battalions and occupations. that doesn't solve the problem. >> some argue the president's decision to put any troops in syria contradicts a promise he's made several times over the past two years. republicans will most likely use this issue to avoid talking about the bush/cheney foreign policy mistakes of the past. let me bring in steve clemens, washington editor at large with "the atlantic" and an msnbc contributor. steve, thanks for joining us. firstly, i wanted to play some of the sound of republicans

reacting to the president's decision to send the special forces to syria to combat isis. let's listen to that first. >> i think we have a president that just doesn't know what he's doing. you either do it or don't do it. 50 people. he puts 50 people. >> this is a failure on all fronts, these 50 american special operators are going to go into a very bad spot with no chance of winning. and at the end of the day, this will not destroy isil. >> i don't think it makes sense to send a handful of ground troops into harm's way when there's no plan for them to win. >> i do applaud him for engagement with the special operators, but we can't get into a quagmire. there should be a real strategy to take out isis and to take out assad. >> i don't have a problem with the tactics of it and the numbers might even have to be larger at some point, but the bigger issue is, can they arrive at a strategy? >> steve, what about that question? particularly what lindsey graham said there. because lindsey graham is not against having 50 on the ground, he wants more on the ground, but that idea that you're kind of dipping your toe in the water

here, but it's not going to be a degree that actually changes anything. >> look, the president of the united states has been right up until now, suggesting that what you have in syria is a civil war with a proxy war stacked on top of it. and it's not clear what sending 50 special operation forces do to change that equation. it will put some of them in harm's way. it may matter in some tilting way here and there in a battle, but it does change things. and i'll quote general jim jones, president obama's first national security adviser. i was just with him over the last few days in abu dhabi, and he said himself, as a person who's served the president, this is a reactive policy, not a strategic policy. so there are a lot of people that have been shocked by this big shift, by the president. because it definitely muddies his legacy and it muddies what he said before. >> and that word, "quagmire," was used there by jeb bush. we have a poll here, americans worrying that using military force against isis will lead to larger war. 76% saying that's their fear. three out of four americans

think, you put any kind of commitment in, it can lead to a quagmire. how serious is that risk here? >> when you have iranian and russian u.s. and troops on the ground in syria, different factions in syria, where you've had even the moderate rebels, that have been working with us or guided by us in part, you know, essentially selling weapons to al nusra and isis on occasion, you have a very messy situation. and i think when you have the russians and americans in the same theater, that's very dangerous. it's no longer just about syria, it's about the potential for a global escalation that takes us into very uncomfortable places. >> you know, i was just thinking about the campaign implications of this. republicans not very comfortable, it seems, talking about the bush era foreign policy record, when their party's president held power, but president obama's ratings on foreign policy are nothing to write home about in the polls either. democrats who would come under fire from republicans on foreign policy pointing back to the bush years, does that still matter to people? >> i think it matters in the

sense that we don't have enough time scale to see what this will all mean. we've just had this big iran deal that very well could be a strategic leap into a very new kind of framework and set of realities in the region. syria, of course, continues to hemorrhage and cause massive refugee problems and a real confidence problem. what i think people get away from is the arab situation is fundamentally not an american problem to fix. it's an arab problem to fix. that needs to be part of the equation. >> all right. steve clemens, thanks for your time tonight. appreciate it. >> thanks, steve. still ahead, breaking news, that brand-new msnbc poll numbers are about to be released, showing head-to-head matchups, general election matchups, democrats against republicans for the 2016 elections. brand-new numbers coming up in just a minute. plus, the push to legalize marijuana in ohio gets some celebrity power behind it. who is backing the effort and why. plus, the debate over the gop debates. republicans can't agree to agree on new debate rules.

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head for the cemetery! breaking news now here on msnbc. results of a new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll released minutes ago. the poll shows head-to-head general election matchups between hillary clinton and her potential republican rivals. the big news is that one year out now from the 2016 general election, hillary clinton is tied with dr. ben carson, who's taken the lead in the republican race. she and carson both getting 47% of the vote in a perspective head-to-head matchup. clinton is ahead of donald trump by eight points in our new poll, 50 to 42 is the score there. she leads former florida governor jeb bush by four points. 47 to 43% and holds a three-point advantage over senator marco rubio, 47 to 44%. that is well within the poll's margin of error.

and joining me now are lauren fox from the "national journal" and republican strategist, matt schlapp. matt, let me ask you, the polling shows ben carson taking the lead in iowa. our nbc news/"wall street journal" poll has him taking the lead over trump by six nationally. now he's the only one who's not losing to hillary clinton in this poll. is he your party's best bet? >> i'll tell you one thing, steve. i don't want to be lectured, too, by anymore democrats about how crazy it is that ben carson could possibly be leading the republican field. he seems to be doing pretty good against the democrats, too. >> well, yeah, i mean, do you think -- the skeptics would say, and we've been hearing this for a while now, well, he has not come under attack, he's not faced the kind of scrutiny the other candidates have. it will change when that happens. >> yeah, that's right. i mean, the fact is this, which is that presidential politics is withering. and if ben carson is going to be seen as the leading candidate, both sides are going to come after him. both his republican opponents, and i think that clinton machine will as well. >> and lauren, i look at the bush number here.

he is losing to her. he's not losing to her quite by the margin that donald trump is, but you look at the bush campaign and sort of the logic, the argument behind the bush campaign. really, at the beginning of this, it was about electability. it was about getting the white house back. this is the guy who can put it all together. it seems polling like this, that does not clearly make that electability argument doesn't help him. >> well, you know, he's only about four points behind here, but something to look at is the fact that a big rival of his, senator marco rubio, is only behind by three points. and i think that's something to be looking very closely at. these two men are competing for a very similar chunk of the republican party. that's sort of this moderate middle ground side of the gop. something that carson and trump might not be able to appeal to. so i think that's something to watch out for here, for sure. >> one other thing to highlight here. you dig a little deeper into these numbers, you say hillary vers versus ben carson is 47-47.

but if you break it down among independents, ben carson is actually beating her by double-digits, 37-43%. that struggle with independent voters, we talked about the great october that hillary clinton had. it's certainly true with democratic voters. she's expanded her lead there, but still some work to do with independents. >> and i think what we have to look for here is she has a trust gap. this has been something that has come up repeatedly in numerous polls. hillary clinton had to do more than just convincing democrats to come out in the polls for her. she has to convince these independents, people on the fence, that she is worth coming out for on election day. and she has to convince them if they are going to stay home, not to vote for one of the republicans when they get off the couch to vote. >> steve, the resurgence of hillary clinton has mostly been with democrats. she still does have big problems with independents. and if you look at this poll, it

also shows th that bernie sandes a very strong general election candidate. if it was sanders against rubio, sanders up 46-41 over rubio. i want to stay on the republican race here for a second. i want to play some sound of donald trump. it was donald trump this morning, talking about ben carson's polling surge, trying to defend himself against the idea that his lead might be slipping in this thing. let's listen to donald trump here for a second. >> an iowa poll, in all fairness, just came out, ppp, and i'm leading in iowa, again. >> and you weren't last week. >> i wasn't last week. this was done a little bit before the debate. new hampshire i'm leading, florida i'm leading, south carolina i'm leading. i'm leading all over the place. so this is fine, you know? >> well, matt, i'm curious what you think. what is the play for donald trump here? because it seems like when it was one, two in the polls, trump and jeb bush, jeb bush was an easy guy for him to beat up on. he attached that no-energy, low-energy label to him.

and i think there were a lot of sort of built-in perceptions about jeb bush and the bush family that he could play against. when you look at ben carson's poll numbers, among republicans, this guy, he's practically revered. he may be revered. that may not be too strong a word to use by the republican base. how is a guy like donald trump, what should he be doing to try to tamp down the carson phenomenon? what can he do? >> the first thing, he's like my grandfather with a stock ticker with all these numbers. he needs to relax about what the head-to-head is. and i think everyone should look at these head-to-head numbers and take them with a big grain of salt. it's a nearly 4% margin of error. that's big swings in these numbers. the second thing is, what polls tell you are characteristics and what voters are looking for and what republican voters are looking for in this primary contest is somebody bho will take on washington, who's an outsider, and who can be strong. trump has those characteristics. he shouldn't worry too much about the fact he's fallen into second in many of these polls. he needs to stay on the themes

that are appealing to primary voters, because we have a long way until the first ballots are cast. >> lauren fox and matt schlapp, thank you. and the fight to legalize marijuana gets some star power in one state. we'll tell you about the controversial battle, that's coming up. and the debate over the republican debates. a joint campaign effort to force changes in the debates is effectively over, less than one day after it gap. who is responsible for breaking up the brief moment of gop unity? stay with us. at planters we know how to throw a remarkable holiday party. just serve classy snacks and be a gracious host, no matter who shows up. [cricket sound] richard. didn't think you were going to make it. hey sorry about last weekend, i don't know what got into me. well forgive and forget... kind of. i don't think so! do you like nuts? on a new set of wheels,

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welcome back. ohio voters are heading to the polls as we speak to decide whether to legalize marijuana. just in the last five minutes, a pro-legalization group has asked a judge to extend voting for an extra 90 minutes in hamilton county. that is the home of senacincinn. the judge has now granted that request. the legalization measure would limit growing and selling to just ten farms. and those properties are owned by a group of investors who reportedly paid $2 million to $4 million each to bankroll the campaign for legalization. so this group is essentially writing and lobbying for legislation that could then make them very rich. you may recognize some of the names behind the group known as responsible ohio. it includes a former boy band star, nick lachey, fashion

designer, nannette lepore. how about nba great, oscar robertson. the big o. msnbc chief legal correspondent, ari melber, joins me now with details. >> we're here on what might be the super tuesday for pot with ohio a bellwether state of voting. lths lo medical marijuana already legalized in over 20 states, but what ohio is voting on, you'll see popping up, are the o other four states that have already done it, total legalization. they're considered a bit more lefty or hippieish than ohio. if ohio actually does this tonight, as you say, keeping the polls open a little later, that would be a change. it wouldn't just be a washington or oregon-style legalization. now, we did speak through our affiliate to a bunch of folks out there on this big voting day about the pros and cons. let's listen hear from some voters in ohio. >> i'm against the monopoly and -- but i would like toe so

medical marijuana be legalized in ohio. i think that's important. >> i hope that it doesn't pass. i can just see crime raised. >> i'm not that opposed to the legalization of marijuana or at least the reduction of penalties for the use of marijuana, but i am opposed to the state and its constitution awarding monopolies to certain pre-determined individuals for growth of that product. >> so you hear it there. the debate not only over pot, but how this proposal in ohio could work. now, what's the takeaway here on the laws, if this actually passes? number one, does legal in this situation, does legal mean anyone can grow marijuana? no, as you just heard that one voter complaining about the monopoly in ohio, as steve was explaining, look, it's going to be a little bit of a monopoly of a system of a few folks selling it. another question we want to hit, how is it legal in states when it's still against federal law? the feds haven't changed it,

congress hasn't changed it. it is against federal law, but eric holder released a memorandum earlier saying now that states are experimenting, prosecuting pot is not going to be a federal priority. if you don't brandish it and put it in an fbi's face and you're in one of these states, you're good to go. so does legal mean you can smoke anywhere? steve, does this mean you could get it going wherever you want it to if you were so inclined to? the answer is no. in many of these states, there are strict regulations on where and how. it may be available, but that doesn't mean it's like candy all over the street. >> so eric holder has basically said from the federal standpoint, they're not going to make this a big deal if states experiment with changing a law on this. what if there's a new president or a republican president, say, that want to get tough on drugs and marijuana? do they start going after these states? >> it's a great question, and prosecutorial discretion means they can make choices, but they still work within a framework of

a policy and what an administrati administration's goals could be. and they absolutely could change it. because there's been so much bipartisan criticism of the war on drugs when holder announced that, there weren't even a lot of criticism from republicans. the you think about other laws, if a new president had an ag who said, i don't want to prioritize enforcement of civil rights protections, you could see that backfiring or people getting really upset. so it could change. >> ari melber, thank you for that. i'm trying to get over how the big o., oscar robertson got involved. >> i think he got involved for the money. >> one of the great all-time stats in the nba. meanwhile, trump card. donald trump bigfoots his rivals' demands for big debate changes. how are other candidates responding? stay with us. the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

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gop's brief unified front criticizing the debates is rapidly crumbling. donald trump said he would not sign the letter outlining demands for future debates. a handful of his rivals have now followed suit. the real estate mogul says he will negotiate his own terms directly with television executives instead. >> every one of these candidates say, you know, obama's weak. he's -- you know, putin is kicking sand in his face. when i talk to putin. >> now even the president is getting in on the action, ripping into the republican presidential candidates at a democratic fund-raising event in new york. and joining me now, we have joan walsh, national affairs correspondent at "the nation" and msnbc political analyst and daily beast columnist, jonathan alt altar. i want to start with trump talking about, he doesn't want to sign this letter, he wants to negotiate directly. he gave a little bit of the rationale for that. i want to play that first, if we

can. >> sure. >> look, i had a representative there. i don't care that much. i think, frankly, i'd go a step further. i'm more of an economic person. the networks are making a fortune with the debates. the truth is, we should say -- we should be like a basketball player. we should go on strike and say, we want money for wounded warriors or we want money for a great charity, the veterans, i would love to give -- >> and joan, that's where this thing sort of broken down. and i guess we should have seen this breaking down. you look at lindsey graham looking to get on the big stage. donald trump has no incentive to say, come on board. >> he is a brand. he's made his money on television being a personality. but it's sad seeing what he's proposing. i would love to see money going to the wounded warriors. this is a public responsibility that the networks have had. and i think any network that goes along with this is crazy. these guys are now setting their terms of how they're going to be questioned.

obama is right, they can't stand up to megyn kelly, how are they going to stand up to putin? it's preposterous. >> so donald trump want to do his own thing. ben carson has made some of the terms he has in mind, trump, carson right now, i guess they have the most leverage, they're doing the best in the polls. where do you think this end up? >> i think they will end up back with some representative of the matter, maybe ben ginsburg, a longtime republican lawyer who's negotiated these things in the past. remember, in the general election debates, those are negotiations between the commission on presidential debates and republican nominees. and over the terms, the format of the debate, what's different with this is they're talking about banning certain kinds of questions. and that is not going to work, if they want to have a real journalist or journalists doing these debates. and that's just a nonstarter for the networks or anybody who

would broadcast them. and also kind of ridiculous. if they don't want to raise their hand. they don't want questions where they should have to raise their hands or give a yes/no answer. they should be tough enough to say, hey, i don't raise my hands in debates. it would be pretty effective for them to say that, because they would play off the media when they've done successful so far. so for them to have rule changes for that is pathetic. >> i can't even see fox going along with it. meghan kelly is the one who made the joke about, on the list of conditions was foot massages, that kind of stuff. so, you know, even fox has to resist this. >> i want to show, too, president obama has been getting in on this, as we say, in the last day or so. and ben carson responded to president obama's criticism of the republicans who are criticizing the debates. listen to ben carson. >> i would say, is this the same president obama who won't come on fox news? the same one, of the same party that won't have any of the debates on fox news? that seems a little strange for

somebody to be saying something like that when they're afraid of fox news. >> what do you make of that, joan? >> well, president obama's been on fox news a lot. bill o'reilly's done a lot of interviews with him. he's not afraid of fox news. you're right, the democrats did say they didn't want a fox news debate and they've left themselves open for some criticism about that. fox does have much more of a stated agenda. the idea that cnbc is some communist front and the idea -- i was on with a republican the other day who was saying, well, john harwood is a known progressive. i mean, that's ridiculous. that these other networks have an agenda. they don't. fox does have an agenda. it's different. >> jonathan, let me take it from the other perspective here. ted cruz is out there saying, he thinks you should not be moderating, you should not be asking a question at one of these republican debates if you haven't participated in a republican primary in the past. basically, you should be a republican to be asking questions at a republican debate. it does, when i think about it, strike me as -- the primary process is different than the general election. the general election, we think of a debate, we think all americans ideally participate,

all americans should be as informed as possible. so there's an interesting there to have some sort of neutral down the middle people asking fair questions. but in a primary, it is about a party deciding amongst itself who to put up as a candidate. so is there some logic there to what ted cruz is saying. hey, this is our part, it's our event, let's have our people asking the questions? >> that's a perfectly reasonable position for them to take. it's also a stupid position for them to take. the reason it's stupid, in terms of their own interests. in the past, they would get maybe 5 million people watching these debates. about the ratings of fox. so if he has sean hannity as a moderator, which is what ted cruz wants, he'll go from the 20 million plus that they've had for some of these recent debates, back down to 5 million. they'll basically be going on radio silence and having the equivalent of, you know, a hannity show for their debates. that's not smart for them, even if you can, you know, defend it

as something that political parties are allowed to do. >> right, they can. and they could have a couple like that. but their party is shrinking. their party identification and registration is shrinking. the number of independents is growing. it's really a recipe to, oh, keep shrinking your parties so you can have a debate as a cocktail party and sit around and yell at each other. i mean, it's kind of crazy. >> we're getting short on time, but i wanted to get back to that poll. the new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, the one that jumps out at me and probably everybody, ben carson and hillary clinton tied at 47 in this poll. what do you make of that strength about ben carson? >> nobody knows anything about ben carson yet? people say yes to ben carson are either passionate about him or they know next to nothing about him and he seems like a really nice guy. those numbers will not stick. we all know that. thanks to joan walsh and jonathan alter. thank you for watching msnbc live. i'm steve kornacki. "hardball" starts right now.

lord of the flies. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. remember that book we read in high school, lord of the flies, about the group of british kids marooned eed on an island who ce their own terrible world, a world of bullying and chaos, where everyone fights desperately to call the shots, only to survive themselves? well, this is the republican party today. with each candidate making more desperate claims against the way things are. the trouble is, the country as a whole believes what they're saying. how bad things are. they don't quite believe in the republican candidates who are saying how bad things are. anyway, last night, president obama took a shot at the republican field, let's listen. >> every one of these candidates