that's worth checking out. good to see you, my friend. thanks for your time. that does it for us. chris hayes is up next. lord of the flies. let's play "hardball."

>> meanwhile, we've got a new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll showing how the top republican candidates match up against hillary clinton. clinton beats donald trump by eight points, beats jeb bush by four points.

marco rubio by just three, but take a look at a matchup between clinton and dr. ben carson, the client guy. tied. 47-47. 47-all for carson versus clinton. anyway, nbc's chris jansing is down in florida, following the florida campaign of reverend carson. have you figured it out yet? this star power of the quiet guy who talks about 33.3, i'm at 78 all the time, he's at 33.3, yet he's connecting with a lot of voters out there, evangelicals, conservative voters, quieter voters. what's going on on the campaign trail with him? can you see it? >> we're not even on the campaign trail. we're on the book tour. this is the second event i've gone to today. thousands of people, mof them who have waited in line four, five, six hours, even more. he gets kind of a rock star reception as he quietly gets off the bus and waves. when you talk to him, there are a couple of things going on. and it's backed up by our poll. first of all, it's the anti-washington thing, we've

talked about that. but it's about his personality, as well. they trust him, believe in him, they think he's honest. contrast that with hillary clinton, the most troublesome number for her in this poll is only 27%. i give her high marks for honesty. the other thing when you delve into that poll that is really interesting is that he has a 13-point advantage in independents. you mentioned the people we thought he'd do well with. what's really been interesting to me, chris, as i've talked to people both on the campaign trail and on the book tour, is how diverse they are. diverse in terms of age, race, socioeconomically. i think this is a story that's going to be told a lot more coming up. a lot of them doctors, nurses, medical professionals, people who are inspired to become that profession, because they read his book. and also patients. he did 15,000 surgeries. i just met a young man who he removed half of his brain when

he was 2 years old and now he has a job and rides horses. how is that guy not going to go out and try to get ben carson elected president? so i think there is a big part of it that started with the ma lace or anger that people feel against washington, d.c. this is unlike anything we've ever seen before. anything i've ever seen before. i covered my first presidential election in 1980. it really is unique to this moment, that someone like him can be where he is. i'll say this quickly. his folks know he'll have to address the experience issue. he has a line that he uses on the campaign trail that gets a big laugh clis, you know, it was professionals built the "titanic," amateurs built the arc. so they know that that's a great line on the trail. they'll have to work to keep this momentum going. that's the big question, chris. >> and amateurs built a lot of ships that have sunk, too. thank you, chris jansing.

at a press conference this morning, with the launch of his new book, donald trump slammed many of his republican opponents with a special focus on the guy that they think he's worried about down the road, marco rubio. >> you look at marco rubio, very, very weak on illegal immigration. i think that really marco is overrated. and frankly, had bush been a better messenger, he has the better message. marco doesn't show up to the united states senate. he has a very bad record of finances, if you look at what happened. with his houses -- he certainly lives above his mean, no question about that. my jeb impression? no, i don't want to do that. i don't like showing a person sleeping at a podium. do i think it's time to have some of the other republican candidates drop out? yes! there are too many people. if a person's been campaigning for four or five months and they're at zero or one or two%, they should get out.

>> nbc's katy tur was at that press conference and he joins us now. you know, i do laugh. i guess it's like the kid cutting up in school. we're supposed to behave in school, in catholic school, especially, and here's this kid back in the fifth row, cutting up. it is cutting up. making fun of the other guys -- basically, making fun of their iqs. your thoughts. is that what it's like every moment of this campaign? >> it is. it really is. he is entertaining. he gets the crowd going. when he's out doing rallies, it's almost like it's a stand-up routine with donald trump. people are laughing hysterically. the question is, is that going to translate down the line? i think we saw him leading in every poll for a long time, but now he is starting to slip. and i think that part of the reason is when you talk to people on the road and in the field, what they think of donald trump, they like his bombast, but they want to hear more. now what you're seeing, even with that very entertaining montage that we just showed, it

wasn't very personal, other than jeb bush who he said, you know, sleeping at the podium. he likes to hit him below the belt, if you will. the others, he's moved on to substance. marco rubio, he's not calling sweaty. he famously sent him those water bottles a month and a half ago. he hasn't done anything like that lately. he's not calling him a kid, not calling him a baby. instead, he's hitting him on his senate voting record and talking about his finances. he has matured as a candidate. he's moved on to insults -- or not insults, attacks that are more substantial than just the personal attacks. and i think that's because people are getting tired of that. >> well, he's not don rickles as much anymore. i've looked at the latest polling you've done, katy. he's still leading by a large swath on who's better dealing with the economy, who's better dealing with the adversarial countries around the world, on the stuff that really matters, the economy and world affairs, he's doing really well. >> and i think he's trying to underline that.

and that's how he's trying to differentiate himself from ben carson. saying ben carson doesn't have the demeanor to be in office, doesn't have the experience. he can't get in there and make good deals and be the leader on trade for this country, create jobs. and i think that's what he's really trying to focus on right now. because that is what he believes he's doing well with the voting bloc that he's after. will it be enough to sway those voters away from ben carson? i'm not sure. it was remarkable how few people were locked into donald trump in our recent nbc poll and how many were just completely locked into ben carson. when you talk to people about ben carson versus donald trump, they get wide-eyed. they really, really like ben carson, especially in iowa. they really like donald trump as well. but do they think that he has the temperament to be in office? that remains to be seen. i'm not sure that iowa will be the place where donald trump should focus his energy. new hampshire might be better suited to him. it's more moderate. it's got a lot more

independents, that could, day of, change parties or decide to vote republicans for the primary. >> i think new hampshire's more his crowd out there. anyway, it's also more sort of individualistic out there. they like characters. >> absolutely. >> anyway, katy tur, thanks for that report. another target for trump this morning, dr. ben carson, the man who's beating him in several recent national polls. according to trump, carson doesn't have what it takes. >> i think that ben just doesn't have the experience. say, look, you know, i'm going to make the greatest deals you've ever seen on trade, i'm going to run the military properly. i'll take care of the vets. ben cannot do those things. >> why not? >> it's not his thing, george. you know, you're born with it. it's not his thing. he hasn't got the temperament for it. it's not the right thing for him. when you see china, these are fierce people in terms of negotiation. they want to take your throat out, they want to cut you apart. >> anyway, dena bass is press secretary for dr. carson's campaign and michael steele is

former chair of the rnc. he is sharpening his knife for your guy. he is focusing on ben carson. >> he may be focusing on dr. carson, but dr. carson is focusing on the american public. and everything he's been doing, the reason he's rising in the polls is because he's out on the trail. and people love him. there is a movement afoot. and i think that the d.c. political class can't explain it. sometimes we can't explain it. >> i agree. i can't explain it. >> is he really running as a protest candidate or to become commander in chief, all of those responsibilities come with being president? >> absolutely. he's running to become president of the united states. and there was a ground swell of people who encouraged him to run. he always said, he was ready to retire, ready to play golf. but the american people in a ground swell wanted him to run and he recognized that he's fit to do this and he's doing it. and every day we see people who

have never been engaged with the political process, who have never voted, never been interested in politics, but because of dr. carson's enthusiasm, people love this man. >> you're a pro, michael steele, what do you make of this? >> it's a phenomenon seeing people coming completely out of left side -- >> right field, in this case. >> right feel, falling into this breach and filling it the way both of them have. i think the test for both of these men, to be honest, in the longer run-up to the vote, is showing substantively the capacity to govern, the capacity to lead. that is something that both of these candidates have not encountered in a primary process. voters right now are voting how they feel, what they like, what they think. voters, whether they go to that booth or that caucus, it's a very different mind-set. so the transition for carson and trump will be how do i get that

to stick. you like me now, you'll like me later, but now i need you to like he later with the substance to knowing that i can be commander in chief. >> how much is it that they just like the guide? and how much of it is the doctor's code, do no harm. but what about getting into the middle east, dealing with these dictators, dealing with people who are an enemy, like isis. i haven't heard how he's going to deal with isis or these incredibly difficult foreign policy people. >> i think that people recognize that dr. carson is wise. and he has a degree of wisdom and his temperament is something that people really like. and it's this wisdom that has allowed him, for the better part of three decades, to bring complex communities together to solve the most complex -- >> statute. >> -- a complex community with isis killing americans on one soil, putin grabbing land in eastern europe. that's a very different -- i get that scenario.

he has not shown that capacity yet. >> where's his experience in that area? >> i think what dr. carson brings, he's not a politician. he'll say that openly, he's not a politician. we believe he's a statesmen and his wisdom will allow him to bring the kinds of people together to lead. that's what america is looking for. we're not looking for -- i love politicians, but we're not looking for career politicians with the same old answers. dr. carson also recognizes that he may not have ever done this before, but there are a lot of things, as we know, that he has never done. but people -- what you see out on the trail every day is people -- >> how does he -- you say with pride he's not a politician, but we have been people who have been failed politicians who don't know how to be a politician. my experience is you end up after all the talk, need 200 points in the u.s. house of representatives and 60 votes in the senate. is all they're doing is talking. nothing is happening. we've got immigration challenges, budget problems, border problems, you know why they don't get done?

because nobody can get 218 and nobody can get 60 in the senate, so nothing gets done. how is he going to do it? >> i think americans see that dr. carson is a unifier. he's able to bring -- even on the trail. from millennials to the baby boomers -- >> how do you unify paul ryan, who says, i won't even talk to the president about immigration with the president. how do you unifie those two guys? >> that may not be an area where we need unification. he definitely knows which battles to pick. >> well, we'll see. you're a good advocate. >> he's a good man. >> i can tell you believe that. a good man can also be terrible president. >> well, we think he'll be a great president. >> we've also had so the bad men who have been all right president. adina, thank you so much. >> thank you, being the man of maturity and wisdom. >> kp, the state of play in the democratic race. hillary clinton is back on the top of brnds brnds up in new hampshire. she's flipped those numbers. we'll talk to a key clinton

surrogate, a top sanders adviser and former mayor of maryland, governor marty o'malley. plus, new poll numbers on the mood of american voters. with one year before the election exactly, voters are mad as hell and they're not going to take it anymore. i'm amazed at the negativity of the bad mood of the country. don't look now, but donald trump is actually helping hillary clinton. trump's rhetoric about illegal immigrants is fuelling a huge mobilization. guess what, by latino voters. voters who will likely be with clinton come november. let me finish with these intriguing numbers. wait until you see the numbers we clicked up for you tonight and they're all read. this is "hardball," the place for politics.

when a moment turns romantic why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a free 30-tablet trial. well, this time eight years ago, hillary clinton was the democrat's top choice for the 2008 presidential nomination. in november 2007, she led the

field with 47%. then senator barack obama was second with just 25%. former senator john edwards was down at 11:00. bill richardson, joe biden, and dennis kucinich rounded out the top six. we'll be right back with much more on the current democratic field for 2016.

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welcome back to "hardball." we turn now to look at the democrats on super tuesday. in a poll out today, hillary clinton has taken the lead again in the important early voting state of new hampshire. according to the monmouth poll, clinton is at 48%. bernie sanders is at 45. obviously very close. that's a flip technically from september, where sanders led clinton. still close. joining me from coralville, iowa, kristen welker. so secretary clinton took questions at a town hall earlier today. how is he differentiating herself from bernie sanders, or is she?

>> reporter: well, chris, look. to some extent, she's trying to go after some of those bernie sanders voters here in a place like coralville, by the way, where there are a lot of young voters. this is a big university town. one of the ways she's going after some of his supporters, she's talking about the issue of gun violence. she is calling for stiffer gun laws. this is a place that is no stranger to the heartache of that. just over the summer, there was a terrible shooting here at a local mall that claimed one woman's life. she's trying to distinguish herself with bernie sanders in that way. interestingly, today, she reiterated her call for a $12 minimum wage. bernie sanders, of course, has called for the minimum wage to be increased to $15. so those are just a few points. look, i've been talking to clinton campaign officials who say they like these new poll numbers. it's an indication they think that she's really started to resonate, particularly in the wake of that strong first debate performance. at the same time, they say they're not taking any votes for granted.

as you say, chris, she is running very close to bernie sanders in new hampshire, and of course, iowa is a place that haunts her. she came in third here back in 2008. so she's reminded of that all the time. and there are some warning signs, away, in our latest nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. she's talked with dr. ben carson in a general election matchup. they both get 47% and take a look at this poll. this has to do with how voters perceive her honesty. 53% of the registered voters give her poor marks for being honest and straight forward, only 27% give her high marks, chris. the campaign looking at these figures and knowing that they still have quite a bit of work to do moving forward. chris? >> thank you so much and by the way, iowa looks cold already. i can't wait for february, when it's a meat locker out there. joining me, the senior adviser to the sanders campaign, tad devine. when i look at the number for hillary, a vulnerability, the fact is 27% is not a great

number of trust. why didn't your guy jump on the e-mail thing. let me put it this way. why didn't he give it way. why didn't he say, i'm tired of hearing about the damned thing. why'd he pull it back out of action? give her a break? >> i don't know if he gave her a break. but look what the republicans did in benghazi, they gave her a lift. >> i would say shove it down her throat. i would say, let her deal with the problems of e-mails. >> because bernie sanders is convinced if we have a real debate on issues that voters care about, we'll win this election. if we have debates about other issues that voters aren't concerned about, he's not going to -- >> but you hit her on the ideological stuff. >> they want to debate real issues. college education. he thinks it should be universal. he has another plan, let's listen. >> how about guns?

>> he earned his d-minus lifetime rating from the nra. he's opposed assault weapons since he lost his first election over that issue in 1988. he called for a close in the gun show loophole. he thinks we should have a limit on the size of cartridges. everything in her ad today, he supports. so listen, she wants to have a debate about that. he wants to have a debate about this. why america has a rigged economy that's held in place by a corrupt system of campaign finance. and we're happy to -- >> do you accept -- did you see the new poll out that shows that most people -- look at this. 52% of americans say most members of congress are corrupt. is that thing bernie believes. corrupt members of congress, a majority? >> he believes our system of campaign finance is corrupt. and it's the centerpiece of his campaign right now, talking about how he would -- and by the way, that's -- >> is hillary corrupt for taking super pac money? >> no. >> well, she's not taking it, but it's helping her. >> he denounced a corrupt system and super pacs are a big part of it. >> are candidates who rely on super pacs corrupt? >> he's not going to call her corrupt.

>> are candidate who is rely on super pacs corrupt? because he's not accepting it. >> bernie will not engage in a campaign of name calling. what he will do is call out a system which is broken, totally broken down. and that system is holding in place a rigged economy that's sending all the wealth to the top. listen, hillary is doing better in new hampshire. and she has had three months of unanswered television. and we're going to start -- >> $2 million bucks up there. >> we'll start tomorrow in new hampshire. and when people get to know bernie sanders' story, it's an american story that begins at the statue of liberty. and when people hear it and understand his accomplishments, they'll understand. that's why in your own poll that came out today, he's doing better against rubio than hillary clinton is. >> if he gets the nomination for the democratic party for president, will he become a democrat? >> he can't be technically a member of the party, because there's no party registration in vermont.

>> i thought he was a socialist. >> his philosophy is democratic. >> he's an independent member of the democratic caucus in the senate, but not a democratic member of the caucus. >> he's a democratic member. >> he's running as a democrat for the president of the united states. >> first i heard that. it's a weird situation. he's now a democrat. because in the past, he's run against democrats for the senate, ran against democrats for mayor. >> in this campaign, he decided to run for the democratic party nomination and is running as a democrat. i'm glad we resolved that. >> i didn't know he changed party. >> he didn't. if he could register, he would. >> i think that's a technical point. he's a socialist. >> he's a democratic socialist. >> that's better. let's go with that. thank, tad devine. keeper of the keys. joining me right now is new hampshire senator jeanne shaheen, a major supporter of hillary clinton for president. thank you so much for joining us.

let's go back to this thing about guns in new england. i always thought guns were a real challenge for democrats in pennsylvania, where there are so many gun owners. so many defeated, moderate, great old liberal senator joe clark on that issue was defeated. tom foley i think i had beaten on the issue. is it an issue that can hurt a democrat if hillary stays strong on it. can it hurt her up there? >> listen, new hampshire strongly believes in the second amendment, but i think people are also concerned about gun violence and they believe in common sense reforms. and so i voted for the manchin/toomey bill that would have provided background checks for guns. i got a lot of support in new hampshire for doing that. and i think that's what people want to see. they want to see support for the second amendment, for responsibility gun ownership, but they believe that there are things we can do to address gun violence. >> what about the -- what is the difference between new hampshire and iowa? new hampshire strikes me more that it goes to the gritty --

>> we would rather live in new hampshire. >> you'd what? >> we'd rather live in new hampshire. you know, our weather is perfect all the time there. >> well, tell me about the culture politically. let me just put it positively. what do new hampshire voters tend to look for in a candidate for president that's unique? >> you know, i think, in this election cycle, as in most, people are looking at what candidates have to say about kitchen table issues. what are -- what is somebody running for president going to do that's going to address my problems with my family? so, are they going to be promoting policies that allow for better job growth, for good jobs for people, to help families put their kids through college in a way that gives them opportunities for the next generation. what are they saying about retirement and about access to health care that's what people are concerned about. and i think hillary is addressing those issues and she's doing it a voter at a

time. she's working hard. she's not taking anything for granted and she understands that thus going to be a tough election and she has to talk about the future of this country and what we're going to do to create opportunities for americans. >> i watched your campaign on the ground thereupon and i was so wonderfully impressed by those young kids working the phones for you. especially -- >> me too. >> the ones with the dealy boppers, having fun doing it. thank you so much, senator jean shaheen. martin o'malley is running against hillary clinton and bernie sanders. o'malley's battle cry is for tougher gun control laws. here he is making his pitch recently in colorado. >> once secretary clinton and senator sanders get done bickering about shouting and who's sexist and who's not, i

hope they'll come back in the main issue here, which is that we need common sense gun safety legislation in our country. >> it's an uphill climb for o'malley who joins me from manchester, new hampshire, as we mark the one-year countdown. let's talk about the issue of gun safety. for democrats, it's always been a little tricky. they've been afraid of losing states, western states, especially. why now? you out there in colorado, i think that shows a lot of courage. >> well, colorado, before it was the host of the latest republican debate, chris, was also the place where the massacre happened at columbine, where the massacre happened at that theater in aurora. i think growing numbers of us as americans are realizing we have a problem, the likes of which no other developed nation on the planet has. the number of people that we bury and the number of americans we bury because of guns and gun violence is appalling. there's not another developed nation on the planet that has this problem.

and in our own state of maryland, we passed comprehensive gun safety legislation, it had universal background checks, the requirement of licensing for new purchases. and it also banned the sale of combat assault weapons. and yet we managed to preserve all of the fine hunting traditions of our rural areas. so, look, there is not a matter of either/or. we can make sure that we actually have common sense gun safety legislations, reduce the carnage without impeding people's abilities to hunt and enjoy their sporting rights and traditions and i think we can do both. >> let's talk about the campaign for president. where would you -- to somebody coming new to the campaign, and everybody, as you know, is not paying attention yet, you have bernie sanders, who's a lifelong socialist and says he's a socialist. hillary clinton, who had been identifying with her husband, the dlc, the moderate democrats. where are you in that spectrum, if you don't mind between bernie and hillary? are you between them or around them? >> i think i'm forward of them.

i'm forward of both of them. i represent a different generation of leadership and a newer generation of leadership, chris. that means i oftentimes arrive at issues before they do. and it means on issues of like immigration or whether it's gun safety, i find myself much more further in front of them than they are on these things. i mean, listening to senator sanders and secretary clinton talk about immigration, it's like the greatest hits of the '80s and '90s. if you talk to young people in our country, they think we've all bumped our heads, that we don't have the ability for people that have been living here for years, whose only country they know of, is the united states. for them to not be able to gain full citizenship rights and play by the rules and be a part of this open economy. also on other issues like climate change, this isn't a matter of following polls, it's a matter of following principles in the best interests of our nation and the needs of this planet for a clean, 100% green, electric energy future.

these are the ideas ooum going to continue to talk to. and i feel like the democratic race really only just began with that very first debate. and immediately on its heels, two of the contenders dropped out and vice president biden, for whom i have a tremendous amount of affection, decided not to enter this race. so in the next debate, there'll be three of us. and i'm the only candidate on that stage who can point to 15 years of leading with principle, accomplishing progressive things, and bringing people together to get things done. that's what you learn to do as an executive. and that's something neither of them can point to. >> well, you'll be on this friday night with rachel here on msnbc, on her candidate's night. and i hope to have you back again soon. and i agree with you. martin o'malley, governor of maryland of years. coming up, is this the mad as hell election. what polls reveal about just how angry the american electorate is heading into 2016. this is "hardball," the place for politics.

♪ we're not gonna take it ♪ hell, we ain't gonna take it ♪ we're not gonna take it anymore ♪ >> that's a succinct statement of the mood out there. welcome back to "hardball." exactly one year from tonight, americans will head to the polls to elect the next president. right now the country's not in a great mood. it's likely to stay that way for a while. according to new polling out just today from nbc news, two-thirds of voters say the country is on the wrong track. two-thirds. other polls paint a similar picture. the mood of america is glum, no matter how you slice it. 57% say the economy is headed down. the majority of the country says the economic and political system is stacked against them. 52% of the country describe most members of congress as corrupt.

isn't that something? a majority of the country thinks the people they elected are crooks. anyway, i'm joined right now by the roundtable, robert costa, national political reporter with "the washington post". heidi przybyla with "usa today," and ranesh with the "national review." start with that, robert. you're all covering the people out the there and the politicians. is that all you have to do is bang the clanger and say things suck and people trust you now? say things are good, people don't trust you? >> i've been struck this year in my reporting, whether i'm at a senator sanders rally or a donald trump rally, you sense the same frustrations, towards the banks, about the economy, about stagnant wages. to me, that's the defining issue. a frustration and anger that's boiling up on both sides. >> is there a sense, when people read about the proliferation of billionaires, because we never heard of them growing up, lots of billionaires, that somebody's skimming the cream off our

economic productivity? that the worker bee still goes to work in the morning, does his 50-some hours a week, comes home sweaty, beat, and has a beer and he realizes, i'm not making anymore money, but i'm reading about billionaires who don't seem to be building night. billion nars aren't henry ford, they make money off money. people are getting richer and richer off money and i'm still working. >> robert's exactly right. it's the anger vote. you're both right. >> i'm just asking about, people reading a lot about billionaires. >> it's not just billion theirs. >> sanders says billionaires. and it always gets a big applause. >> it's the contrast -- >> it's not just the billionaires, it's the contrast with what's happening in middle america with the stagnant wages. you can tick off any number of economic indicators that show unemployment's down, the stock market's up, but if people aren't feeling that, they're going to be angry, especially when they see what's happening

at the very top. >> they've been passed over. >> that's exactly right. >> and even if they do feel that things have worked out for them over the last few years, which of course a lot of people don't feel that way, was if they do, they don't trust this economy. they don't think this is going to last. >> that's what i fear. >> they fear the country's seen its best days. >> i fear the big number -- what do they call -- the economy. not just inequality or wages or trade, i think people are afraid we may run out the string. they've stimulated the economy with the stimulus bill, have done everything to get it juiced up but it still isn't really lifting and at some point it will drop. >> and they feel they have to work harder to stay in the middle class. they feel it's easier for their kids to fall out of the middle class. and in that sense, the american dream is in jeopardy. >> i tell you, people, a little younger than you guys, you're probably still carrying debt. when we went to college, we carried debt at three or four years at 3%. your first job, you paid it you have. i talked to a dentist today, he

said, some people are coming out of dental school owing $400,000. and then they got to buy a practice. and a residency that pays $30 a year. they never catch up. >> the other problem is, with all due respect to both parties, neither one is coming out with big, bold ideas -- >> it's tough to have an idea -- >> about wages and jobs. >> it's tough to have a good idea. >> it's not raising the minimum wage and not deregulate everything. it's something bigger than that. >> one thing i've been struck by, donald trump has not advocated for reforming medicare and social security. that was the key republican issue in 2012. i sat down with trump recently and said, why aren't you pushing for the same thing paul ryan is pushing for? he said, the country's not at that moment anymore. >> it doesn't want to give away anything that it has, because they're so scared. the people have so minimal benefits. you're 65 years old, you get your health care, you want to give that away? you want to give away your social security benefits? no, that's all i have!

>> and in return for nothing. >> in return for nothing. no positive side, either. >> we'll be right back. the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

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and i predict that i'm going to win the hispanic vote. i think i'm going to win the hispanic vote.

i predict, yeah, i think i'm going to get the nomination and i will win the white house. i think beating hillary clinton is going to be easy, because her record is so bad. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was, of course, the inimitable donald trump today saying he'll win the hispanic vote and defeat hillary clinton in november of next year. but according to the latest nbc/"wall street journal" poll, only 11%, one in nine, of hispanic voters across the country have a positive view of trump, while 72% don't like the guy much. that's a net negative of 61%, taking the negatives from the positive, making donald trump far more toxic to hispanic voters than any of the other top republican candidates. ben carson and marco rubio fare the best. as heidi przybyla reports in "usa today," donald trump is the primary force driving latino registration efforts right now and that's likely to benefit hillary clinton in the long run. we're back.

i saw the front page story. is trump basically the kind of guy that's going to get hispanics to vote democrat, because they can't stand what he said about them. >> the most powerful movements are the movements that are organic. what we're seeing is not the clinton campaign going out and whipping up hispanics, because that will eventually happening, what we're seeing is a grassroots movement that last week 2,200 hispanics gather outside a republican debate. that's not pro-hillary, that's anti-trump. what were they doing there? they were registering to organize to vote. we're seeing two ad campaigns based off of trump specifically appealing to hispanics. he's providing them with the fodder to brand the entire party, which is what the democrats plan to do. >> robert, what are you seeing out there? >> when i was in mobile, alabama, or a new hampshire trump rally, i've seen hispanic voters. i go up to them and say, why are you here. they say, one, they oppose illegal immigration. two, they think he's a cowboy. they like his swagger.

so, will trump's hardline immigration views have consequences if he's the nominee? of course. but are there some hispanics out there who may be inclined to eventually support him? that's also possible. >> ramesh, will they like his pro-capitalism view? >> i think a lot of them will. i think that, you know, look 11% of hispanics is an awful lot of people who like donald trump, but it's even lower than what mitt romney got in 2012, which was a pretty low point for republicans with hispanics. any republican is going to have trouble with hispanic voters. >> but by the way, it's harder than it looks. if you say cuban americans tend to be republicans, that could be the 11%. in other words, it may be -- >> not necessarily -- >> -- may be -- mexican americans as a group i think are in play, usually. look how well george w. did with them. >> the comparison is even more stark, chris, when you look at the numbers that they would need going forward, given the growth in this demographic. they actually, to win back states like ohio, the prediction

is that all things holding constant, they would need even more -- >> republicans need mexican-american votes. they can live without puerto rican s and they can live without dominicans and haitians, but they need their chunk of the mexican american vote. >> and need to keep their cuban numbers high. >> maybe susanna martinez for vp. >> i think we'll see a hispanic on either one of the tickets, maybe on both. the roundtable is staying with us, and up next these three top reporters are tell me something i don't know. this is "hardball," the place for politics.

well, earlier we told you it was leading the democratic field eight years ago. a pretty low point for republicans with hispanics. any republican is going to have trouble with hispanic voters. four years later in november of 2011, mitt romney was on top with a one-point lead over herman kaine. rounded out the top six. things happen. and we'll be right back.

back with the roundtable. romesh, tell me something i don't know. >> there is a new interesting survey out of pugh forum, this is about the public's religious mood. it shows that people who don't have religious affiliation. >> the nuns. >> they've really risen during the years of the great recession. >> is that going to help the left. >> i think it will. what's interesting, we have to remember how complex people are. they're nuns but 61% of the nuns believe in god, 20% of them pray daily. let's not oversimplify. >> based on they're spiritual. >> that's right. they just don't belong to a religious body. >> interesting. another anti-institutional argument in the country. we don't trust churches or politicians.

>> if hillary clinton is elected in 2016, i'm going to predict she's probably going to reverse her opposition to the transpacific partnership, that controversial trade deal. that's not just me saying that, that's bill daley the former commerce secretary who told a bunch of us last week she can renegotiate it and it's her deal and she can sign it. >> i think that's fascinating. i don't think it says a lot about her stated positions. >> behind the trump campaign, it could sometimes seem like a black box politically. mike glassner, a long time aide to bob dole at his side in the '96 campaign, a republican veteran, he's been the political director for trump for months working to build a grassroots network in iowa and across the country. if he gets close to the nomination it's because after his campaign manager but also glassner. >> will he spend the money if he thinks he can win? >> wait to the last minute 0 go on the air. he doesn't want to spend any money unless he has to.

>> he has to win into if he gets -- but he doesn't want to spend till january or february. >> i hope he blows every dollar he's got. spend $11 billion, donald. then we can all be happy. thank you, robert costa, heidi przybyla and romesh. let me finish with this intriguing duet of numbers in a new poll. you're watching "hardball," the place for politics.

let me finish tonight with this intriguing set of numbers in the new nbc/"wall street journal" poll. question, do you want a republican or a democrat in the white house? answer, 44% republican, 43% democrat. so after all this sound and fury, it looks like come next november it will come down to an even split with us up on election night trying to see how states like florida, colorado and virginia end up. the same states you can count on every time as the final deciders. the fact is the country is divided. you see it in so many numbers. even if there's an advantage to a democrat in one match-up, a republican in another, the closer the question approaches which party you want controlling things, the more the pendulum tends to swing back toward the middle. country tends to balance out right and left. i'll stick with my prediction. even if it's hillary, it's going to be one close election which means what happens in the final week is going to matter.

which candidate gives the best promise for the future is going to matter even more. and this is not a contented country right now. and that's why. and that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. tonight on "all in" -- >> marco, marco, marco. >> donald trump shifts his focus to the other florida candidate. >> look at marco's stance on illegal immigration. it's really trouble for him. >> as president obama has a little fun with the republican field. >> they can't handle a bunch of cnbc moderators. >> then ben carson continues his book tour. >> i'm not a politician. so i don't sit around and strategize. >> we'll discuss whether he's actually running for president. >> plus, after a huge month for hillary clinton, i'll ask bernie sanders how he plans to combat her surging poll numbers and