>> johnny deutsche, i'm going to be -- >> you're first up? >> but that's not enough. >> this is exciting isn't it? >> i'm not in till episode six. >> well former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst -- >> and my feelings are totally hurt. why am i not in this? >> a cup of money or something. >> we did not want to go for the 0.001% -- >> oh! >> oh! >> that is -- >> wow. we're starting early. >> johnny deutsch. >> i had that covered. >> oh. >> and in washington, washington anchor for bbc world news america, katty kay, and republican pollster kristen anderson joining us, as well. okay. so you heard what trump said at

the top about that -- how he would bomb -- uh-huh. breaking overnight in the fight against isis, jihadi was targeted and we're waiting to see if he's dead. we'll have a live report just ahead. we'll get reaction from general michael hayden as well as the ranking committee adam shift. we'll talk about that. obama certainly hasn't held back on his drone strikes and keeping that in mind there's a phrase not necessarily a strategy that hasn't been used. >> we'll have much more ahead and even in terms of optics,

that was important. those videos have been pif toll pivot pivotal. we begin with politics and what some consider an epic rally. campaigning in iowa he renewed attacks on ben carson and boy did he targeting a part of the biography. his own claims of a violent youth. last night trump made a striking comparis comparison. >> carson's an enigma to me. i didn't say it. carson's an enigma. he wrote a book and he's doing great in iowa and second in the poles. with all these professional politicians, i'm first and carson is second and i don't understand it. i really don't understand it. because he wrote a book and in

the book he said terrible things about himself. he said that he's pathological and he's got basically pathological disease. i don't want a person that's got pathological disease. now, i'm not saying he's got it, he said it. this is something i said oh, he's a path logical liar. i'm saying he's got pathological disease. he actually said pathological temper and then defined it disease. he says he has pathological disease. if you're a child molester, a sick puppy, there's no cure for that. there's only one cure, we don't want to talk about that cure. that's the ultimate cure. there's two. there's death and the other

thing. think of this. he went after his mother with a hammer at a fairly young age. 14, 15-years-old. i didn't. i didn't. okay. he hits a friend of his in the face with a padlock. like a master's padlock. in the face. with a padlock. a lot of damage. okay. i never that. here's the beauty of all. he took a knife and he went after a friend and he lunged. he lunged that knife into the stomach of his friends but low and behold it hit the belt. it hit the belt. and the knife broke. give me a break. let me tell you i'm pretty good at this.

i have a belt somebody hits me with a knife it's going in because the belt moves this way, that way. he took the knife and went like this and plunged it into the belt and amazingly the belt stayed totally flat and the knife broke. how stupid are the people of iowa? how stupid are the people of the country to believe this crap? [ applause ] >> the other day i said we need an animation. i don't know if you can stab a belt buckle. >> how about a reaction about

just plain old deep depression. >> steve, i'm going to say what i just saw. you had your charts here and first you were disgusted and looking at your charts and then i saw you look up and look up again and then i saw you crack a smile and started to lausmile a nod. >> no moment did i say gee, i might vote for this guy for president. >> there was that for you. >> so i've been a journalist my entire career and i'm like a pig in you know what, right, because this guy is such a, he's compelling. you can't not watch that. you cannot not listen to that whole rant. it went on for 95 minutes. he spoke for something like 95 minutes at this rally. that's why they call it epic. >> it's very simple. he and this is what i would say to donald. it's obviously entertaining.

we go back to his opening statement. we're going to bomb the crap out of you. what is that? that's what the average person of the country would say. let's find the country isis and bomb it. that's my point. it is such theater of the absurd and peppered with the most simplistic absurd statement but yes, there's a difference between one to entertain, one to watch and one to vote. he's got to take that step at some point. >> i would suggest calling the people a liar was stupid. not the best way to get their vote. >> i think he was asking the question. hold on one second. kristin, chime in. then i want to get caddy k. >> the fact trump has been over the line, he's been over the line a million times at this point. that's not going to change his pole numbers. where the risk comes is ben

carson's favorables are leading poll after poll. >> does this impact that? >> i don't know if donald trump can pull down ben carson's favorables because there's such a big gap between them. that's why donald trump is trying to do it. it could backfire. it could be people go you've insulted all these other people but ben carson is a smart man. >> this is trump working to take down carson and using his words against him. >> yeah, the question has to be what does it do to trump rather than what it does to carson. every time trump does something like whether they think he's a war hero, we all thought this was going to be trouble. the step too far criticizing the voters of iowa, it seems to be a cardinal rule running for

presidency in this country you don't criticize the voters ever. he phrased it as a question but effectively he's just done that. what does that do to his standing in iowa? traditionally, you think it pulled him down. maybe his supporters will love him more. >> there was a woman there who said i'm still processing. there was so much there. i think, go ahead. >> it seems to me, remember the last few weeks, almost the last month trump has actually dialled it down a notch. he's been more like not a traditional candidate certainly but he's been a bit quieter, a bit less bombastic. a bit less trumpian. it seems like he switched it back on and decided if he's going to deal with ben carson that only one outsider is likely

to surprise. if he's going to take down carson and take down his favorables, he's got to go back to being trump. it worked well for him before. can you insult the first state in the nation to vote in that way and the people in it? i'm not sure. maybe he's writing them off. maybe that was an appeal. >> you guys heard me yesterday fairly critical of ben carson. i think there was a disconnect when those who ceaser son as an implikable reality at the top of the poles and those who are all in. i don't know how at this point you got into that. i don't know. i'm not an expert. >> trump kicked his bait. if you are buying that. >> if you're buying that, you're staying up. >> if you're not buying it, you're not going to stop buying

it. that cake is really baked. >> i can't see it at this point. this is such a clearly defined break. this is not jeb bush or marco rubio. what you see with that guy is what you get. at this point you're going now i've fallen in love. >> you don't think as we get closer to voting in iowa and then new hampshire people say okay, the trump show was great and amusing but should this guy be president. susan rise is has responded to trump's claim. >> it's not just you. it's what was he talking about? >> this was the arguably. >> that stuff makes no sense. >> i wish that were the most bizarre thing he said though. >> all right, alex, i'm sorry.

we just kind of can't still get over that. a reminder of what he said now followed by susan rice. >> unless you're talking about having a diplomatic presence i'm not sure. >> he explained it came from a secret source. his adviser, armstrong williams backed up yesterday. >> i would have to refer you to some other people to get you the data. >> carson said the chinese are

in syria which is not accurate. >> well, on camera, from your perspective, what most people know maybe that is accurate. dr. carson is told now many times that the chinese are there. the briefings dr. carson has been in he's certain that the chinese are there. >> whose briefing him? >> however, this is not the first time dr. carson has claimed the secret intelligent force. he recently claimed that iran, russia and the palestinian authority knew each other. >> his relationships go way, way, way back.

1968. >> they were classmates. that's when they first established relationships with a young putin. >> except at the time putin was 16-years-old living in -- after carson repeated the claim on the christian broadcasting network and they questioned him, dr. carson would not disclose his sourtss but told ynn he learned about the ties with the three across the government including the cia. he said the connection is currently explaining what happened around the world.

>> he puts in the specific details to make it sound incredibly credible and yet just like the chinese example there are serious questions about whether he has these facts straight on foreign policy. if he just come into this race a month ago, you might think to yourself he's not up to speed on foreign policy. >> let's get to some real foreign policy and that breaking news that the u.s. military

launched an air strike targeting the isis militant known as jihadi john. they tell nbc news there's no definitive proof yet that he was killed. british prime minister david cameron held a news conference a short time ago and said we cannot be certain that the militant jihadi john is dead. let's bring in missy ryan that's been following the story. missy, what are you hearing from your sources? >> actually my colleague and i broke this story yesterday. what we learned is there had been an air strike yesterday. a u.s. drone aircraft conducted a strike on a vehicle and targeting jihadi john and this militant who is the person we first knew as the masked militant who beheaded the american journalist and a number of other western hostages. u.s. military officials are still assessing whether or not

he was actually killed in the strike and while there's some indications from the strike was successful, they don't have full confidence he was killed. that could be a matter of days or frankly they could never confirm with total certainty whether he was killed. it was one of those things where the intelligence is difficult, especially in a situation like syria where there's no major american presence on the ground and he was killed in the sort of center of isis territory. >> all right. thank you very much for the update. the story you guys broke yesterday. a terror group last year and the operation to retake it yesterday began with the help of some 20 u.s. air strikes. forces have reportedly recaptured a main highway that

isis usings to transport supplies. meanwhile, it's a national day of mourning in lebanon following yesterday's twin bombings near the capitol city. at least 43 people kill and 200 injured. isis quickly claimed responsibility for the attack. according to the global security firm flash point intelligence, isis militants say a motorcycle equipped with exemployeplosives detonated first. officials say this appears to be the first suicide bombing with isis in lebanon. much more coming up. coming up on morning joe we're going to go straight to the source in the face of isis. from the select committee on intelligence. former cia director joins the discussion. also ahead, much more on the

unfolding fight over immigration. chuck todd joins the political round table. up next, mitt romney's friends are discussing whether a late entry into the presidential race is still possible. the washington posts'robert costa is here with a front page report. you're watching morning joe. we'll be right back. the future belongs to the fast. and to help you accelerate, we've created a new company... one totally focused on what's next for your business. the true partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. accelerating innovation. accelerating transformation. accelerating next. hewlett packard enterprise. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like playing the boss equals the boss wins.

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new poling data collected by nbc news and the wall street journal is revealing just how different the republican primary electorate is from 2012. look at this. a majority of g.o.p. is male and the other is female. a whopping 92% of republican primary voters white while 72% of general voters are white, african americans 1% verses 13%. hispanics 4% verses 15%.

asians 1% verses 3%. combini combining data is an interesting trend. combined data shows 75% of g.o.p. primary voters could now see themselves supporting ben carson up 34 points between march and july. donald trump is up 20 points in this category over the same span and carly fiorina is up 10 points. jeb bush has dropped 11 points. this all helps explain the front page story within the washington post and the growing worry donald trump or ben carson could actually win the nomination. the headline is g.o.p. preps panic button. okay. robert costa and phillip write less than three months before

the kick off of iowa caucuses there's gruing anxiety about the dominance and durability of donald trump and ben carson. some in the party are so desperate to change the dynamic, they are talking about drafting mitt romney despite his insis tans he will not run again and robert joins us now on set. the panic about carson and the panic about trump, are they the same panic? >> i think when people in the republican establishment look at carson's durability and trump's durability they have about 50% of the republican primary e elector rat and hasn't gone away. this has been a four month journey and no one has found a way to take them out. >> except for the fact they were outsiders and i would put carly in the category as well. they seemed like different candidates. who are they most afraid of? >> most afraid of trump?

>> really? >> i think so. >> carson doesn't have the same organization and name recognition. they look at carson with the depth in his republican and i think he's improved as a candidate. that's the establishment view of trump. even comparing to last night, he was different last night. he's become more discipline in general. >> all right. the racial differences. kristin, as a pollster, what do you make of those? >> whether you're talking about the republican party or democratic party, their primary elector doesn't look like all of america put together. they're specialized demographic groups. the challenge for the republican party is going to be can we find a nominee whose the type of person who can win in the republican primary electorate who can win over these pry mare voters and working class voters and also have a message that can

extend come november. that's a big challenge. what's fascinating is in national polls when you look at that time ballot match ups hillary clinton verses a republican, ben carson is consistently the strongest performing republican in a lot of these match ups which is another thing confounding to the republican establishment. we'll also say while governor romney is a great man i don't think he's the solution. people are looking for someone new. pulling someone whose run before is the opposite direction you want to go. you're somebody whose new and somebody whose going to shake things up and be different. >> there's two theories of what could happen. theory number one a lot of people say the numbers suggest completely opposite that bush is sitting with a hundred million dollars of super pack money waiting for it to get whittled

down to what the establishment feels trump and carson can't do it and start the run the mushroom cloud campaign. look what could happen to the world by these guys and by default it swings back to him. i say you know, that could happen. >> it could happen. there's two wings of the establishment right now in the republican party. two major power centers. one is romney allies and the other is bush family loyalist. they believe jeb can come back because he has the money. he's a bush, he has it in his blood and then we call romney donors and romney people and they say we don't think bush has it. we like rubio but he has to be tested on the national stage. a lot of romney people think if bush can't do it and for some reason rubio gets knocked off. >> take me through the technicality at this point romney gets in there. >> it's difficult. to get on the new hampshire primary ballot, you got to do it in the next few weeks. that's what we pressured the

romney people. how do you do it? look, the strategy for romney is not to get in the next few weeks but is there a way to get a late entry next year to get enough delegates to go to the primary? this is where the republican establishment is. they're gaming out privately how to counter these outsiders. >> putting it all together you would categorize this as a low probability. >> very low. romney doesn't want to do it. his friends are talking about it and it's reflective. >> yeah. robert costa, thank you very much. we'll be reading your front page piece today. the must read opinion pages are next and one week from today, one week, know your value. orlando, we're going to orlando. mar at that is going to be there. martha and racheal in the same room, same day. the director laura brown. super model emme, vanessa

deluca. >> were no men invited? >> joe is going to be there, tom is going to be there. >> i didn't get invited. >> i got invited once. >> will you guys do me a favor and help me kick off the next round? >> yeah. >> you promise? really? >> what about. >> i was ushered out. >> you were carefully ushered out of the room. well, we can do an episode with donnie on that. oh my god. that's a good one. you coming to a know your value event as donnie. that would be so inappropriate. please, tell the producers. this is friday, november 20th. we're expanding the room. massive interests. for tickets and information go to msnbc.com/knowyourvalue. we'll be right back.

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. time now for the must read opinion pages. you read in the washington post the winner of the fourth g.o.p. debate foolish economic policy. in part you write this. the real headline from this week's republican debate wasn't that the candidates crashed over immigration and national security. it was that they agreed on economic policies that proved unpoplar and unwise. that may make the eventual

nominee e llectable. the response is a big collective slug. what we did not hear tuesday night was the plan to boost the earnings of the middle class workers. the republican party clearly wants no part of it. it's true. i didn't hear a sense of and steve talks about this all the time. wages, flat. here's how we're going to reignite sort of the success of americans across the board. >> yeah, it was all tax cuts and deregulation. >> and spending on military. most work for wages of salary. they want to know when they're going to get paid for and when the wages are going to catch up

with the slight impact they've had and when they're going to look for better years for their children and that wasn't really impressed. >> there's an argument to not raise the minimum wage and why, i understand. i've had that debate with a lot of people. if you don't have a relacement of how we're going to help people get over the hump, people trying to live on these wages or wages just above that, you look cold hearted quiet frankly. it reminds us of what we've seen which brings us to your charts. take us to what you saw. >> their argument basically if you cut taxes and spending and deregulate the economy. >> and don't raise minimum wage. >> it will filter down. >> cutting taxes is a big part of it. the idea of cutting taxes is the more the better. it's a race to see who can cut the most taxes. let's take a look at what each of the candidates have propo

carson, it isn't clear what he's proposing. then you have responsible people either way you want to look at it and cruz 3.7 trillion. that's what it will cost the government over a period of time. at the time worth noting when we go on from here none of these guys have proposed spending cuts. they're giving you the goodies but they're not telling you what the spinach and carrots are going to look like. let's look at what's in the plans. there was a lot of confusion the other night. trump and rubio and bush have rather conventional approaches to lower the maximum rates. you have tax brackets. carson and cruz are in the flat

tax camp. 15% from carson depending on which day you ask him. then you go to the corporate tax rate and fairly conventional cuts for the rate with most of these guys and then you come to cruz. cruz wants to eliminate the corporate tax rate and replace it with a national sales tax. 16%. it will be paid not by business but consumers on everything they buy. it's an aggressive tax because everybody's paying the same percentage on it. it is part of why his plan doesn't cost so much. then when it comes to deductions, pretty much everybody wants to eliminate most of the deductions. carson is an outlier with none and jeb bush has a more creative plan of capping deductions. everyone else says get rid of deductions. then you come to the effects on people. here's what's surprising.

rubio's plan is actually the most progressive because he has in it a big tax credit for low income americans. he would raise the wages of the bottom 10%, raise the incomes of the bottom 10 americans by 44%. by comparison, the least impressive plan is he would create a 30% increase in the after tax income of the wealthiest americans. one of the most striking things to me is how little any of these plans do for the so-called middle class. if you look at the middle class and these big bars on the right for the rich and you look at this middle you see that trump actually would do something a little bit more than the others but it's a little bit more than the others for the middle class. you get down to cruz, he's increasing middle class incomes by 1%. these are highly highly regressive. highly punitive to the people below the top. highly rewarding.

i'm not talking about things like eliminating the state tax and gains. there's all sorts of goodies in here for wealthy people. >> seems like they don't want to win the election. >> well, if they're talking past, the central issue in the election, i think. it just leaves the field open for the democrats. >> absolutely. >> keep it coming. >> right now they're ehindering their pace. when they get to the general they're going to have to fight from a different position. >> great. >> up next first a russian passenger plane and now a lebanese neighborhood. isis claiming credit for international destruction. we'll ask michael hayden about the threat posed to americans over seas an here at home. morning joe is back in a moment.

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this video has just came in showing forces walking through the town carrying the curdish flag. one fighter tells nbc news we have seized many of their weapons and they're now in full control. we've also confirmed that iraqi forces have launched a major assault to recapture the key city located 60 miles west of baghdad. isis took control about six months ago. a lot to talk about here. let's bring in the former director of the cia now a principal of the group retired general michael hayden. let's start there.

>> it's a sign isis is not an inevitable winner on the battlefield. it not just liberates a town punished by isis but it cuts a main supply route. in terms of what we call ipb, opb, intelligence or operational preparation of battle space, what this does is moves us in the direction of creating the environment for a later successful assault which i'm afraid is still pretty far in the future. this is a necessary precondition. >> caddy has a question. >> general hayden, with new polls suggesting americans are inches towards greater involvement in syria and iraq and you heard the tone of the republican debate this week, there seemed to be in that crowd quiet a lot of support for the more interventionist candidates

rather than the isolationist candidates. are you getting a sense that america is going to step up from this initial force of 50 special ops forces in syria? do you think we're going to end up in the end with a much greater force and is that what the american public is inches towards? >> i think yes. i think the american public opinion has been leading the government action with regard to our interest of willingness to invest in iraq and syria. we've seen our government now take some steps. not overly dramatic but measurable. we've increased a number of aircraft in the region. it looks as if we've loosened the rules of engagement. they're now more balanced with the tactical effects. we've got the 50 operations forces there. we seem to be upping the pressure on isis and frankly, i think that's a good move. caddy, you've heard me say in the past we've been under

resourced and under regulated. i think we're dealing with both of those dynamics. >> general hayden, gene robin son. taking back -- and if it were to happen it would be a huge public relations disaster for isis. in the operational league, does this have any sort of real impact on the so-called -- >> gene, it really does. in a strange way this is one ene enemy where tactical success has logical impact. these guys are who they are because they appear to be carrying out the will of god and appear to be the hand of god and battlefield success feeds that narrative. giving them a bloody nose

undercuts their idealogical effect. >> steve. >> general, put together for us, if you would, what you were just saying about encreasing american involvement and effect in the region. >> yeah, steve, in many ways it's always been us and the kurds. you're right. the amount of air dracraft activities from our other allies and the region has been decreasing and the american roll in the campaign has been increasing as a proportion of

the overall fight. frankly, all along we've been the dominate fighter there. you really want to get the soonnies and the neighborhood involved. we've never been able to do that before. the pressure on isis is going to require getting other people involved in the game. be arab or turk or other allies.

>> that's treating isis less as a movement and less as a terrorist organization and more as a state. we're going after their infrastructure. in a same way isis is a state. not just a movement. we can punish them with air strikes, but you know, i said about a year and a half ago air strikes without ground power is a lot like casual sex. it offers gratification without commitment. >> sign me up for that. >> oh my god. general, while we have you and while we're on the topic of presidential politics and i hope you don't take a pass on this, i hope i'm not putting you in a bad position. we have one candidate ben carson talking about china being in syria among other things he said. he's answered questions about

foreign policy i can't even understand exactly what he's saying. are you concerned there's a front runner whose foreign policy sensibilities seem to lack to say the least? >> i wouldn't say sensibilities. i had one lengthy phone call with ben carson two months ago. his instincts are all right. this is a database in which he's very unfamiliar. i think what he's trying to say, i think he was trying to say when we're absent from the playing field we leave a vacuum in which other powers may enter. in this particular case, the russians are there. i would characterize the chinese as nearly interested. i think he overstated the data in that point. again, it's more the details than the broad instant. >> and when you had that time with him, did you gather he had the ability to wrap his head

around these issues? >> meika, good questions. honest dialogue. i must admit what you see pub c publicly is what you get. a man trying to understand things which his life experience hasn't given him understanding about in the past. >> wow. >> okay. >> all right. general michael hayden, thank you very much. it's always good to have you on the show. i'm surprised by that answer. but i really, that's not somebody we take as a respected source. are you sure you don't want to -- >> that wasn't the answer she was looking for. >> with all do respect. >> i heard on the phone. look, he asked the right questions. he gave me a chance to talk and explain it. he had good follow on questions. >> are we talking about the same

person? >> is he willing given that his database is corrupted, it has bad data in it. is he willing to replace the bad data with good data and accept china is not militarily involved in syria. no, putin at age 16 was not conspiring with the leader of iran and leader of the palestinian territories. >> and don't forget the pyramids. >> general, please. >> i don't think we're going to be bombing the pyramids. is he willing to accept new data and change his views? >> the phone call was at his initiative. he wanted to talk to me to get my views on these issues. i can only report what i've seen. >> and you're not concerned about these several topics he's talked about the pyramids, syria. >> i'm concerned about a lot of things out here, mika, not just from the doctor.

there are a lot of things in both parties debates where i shake my head and say that does not per port with reality. it's not just isolated to this one man. >> okay. general michael hayden, thank you for being on the show this morning. it's not just big data, its bigger data. we're beta testing the new wearable interface... ♪ xerox believes finding the right solution shouldn't be so much work. by engineering a better way for people, process and technology to work together. work can work better. with xerox. at ally bank no branches equalsit's a fact.. kind of like mute buttons equal danger. ...that sound good? not being on this phone call sounds good. it's not muted. was that you jason? it was geoffrey! it was jason. it could've been brenda.

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vrjt if i were abraham lincoln, he's great they say. who the held knows? i didn't get to watch him. if i were abraham lincoln and i

gave the greatest remarks you ever heard, how about the gettysburg address? it's the greatest thing he's ever heard. okay. he was very low key. very low key. i don't know. i say low key. i'm screaming at kasich. right. i'm telling carly whatever the held her name, fiorina, will you stop cutting in? everybody that talks she cuts in, cuts in. i'm raising my hand and trying to be a gentleman. >> this was, i never seen, welcome back to morning joe. it's friday, november 13th. we have so much to show you. on set with us, donnie, the washington post eugene robinson,

you're still a guest, steve ratner. caddy kay and g.o.p. pollster kristin anderson. should we show a bit more and we'll talk if we can. let's begin with what many are saying was an epic rally by donald trump even by trump standards. campaigning in iowa he renewed his attacks on ben carson targeting a part of the neurosurgeon's biography. last night trump made a striking comparison. >> now, carson's an enigma to me. i didn't say it. carson is an enigma. he wrote a book and he's doing great in iowa. he's second in the poles. with all these professional politicians i'm first, carson's second. i don't understand it. i really don't understand it.

he wrote a book and in the book he said terrible things about himself. he said that he's pathological and that he's got basically pathological disease. i don't want a person who has pathological disease. i'm not saying he's got it, he said it. i'm not saying he's a pathological liar. i'm not saying it. he said he's got pathological disease. he said pathological temper and then he defined it as disease. if you're a child molester, a sick puppy, you're a child molester, there's no cure for that. there's only one cure. we don't want to talk about that cure. that's the ultimate cure. well, there's two. death and the other thing. if you're a child molester there's no cure. they can't stop you.

pathological, there's no cure. now, he said he was pathological. okay. think of this. he went after his mother with a hammer at a fairly young age. 14, 15-years-old. i didn't. i didn't. okay. he hits a friend of his in the face with a padlock. like a master's padlock. in the face. with a padlock. a lot of damage. okay. i never did that. here's the beauty of all. he took a knife and he went after a friend and he lunged. he lunged that knife into the stomach of his friend but low and behold it hit the belt. it hit the belt and the knife broke. give me a break.

i'm pretty good at this. so i have a belt somebody hits me with a belt it's going in because the belt moves this way, that way. when he took the knife he went like this and plunged it into the belt and amazingly the belt stayed totally flat and the knife broke. how stupid are the people of iowa? how stupid are the people of the country to believe this crap? no, no, no, no. it happened. how dare the press not believe me that i went after my mother with a hammer, that i hit somebody in the face with a padlock. that i tried to stab a friend of mine whose name was bob but now it's changed. whose name was bob, he was a friend but now he's a member of my family. oh, the knife broke.

there it is. so what he's saying is that these series of events and he goes into the bathroom for a couple of hours and now he's religious. and the people of iowa believe him. give me a break. give me a break. it doesn't happen that way. >> he started to sound very preacher in his delivery. we just set through four and a half minutes. the simple truth is this and we're doing a news program and trying to engage our viewers and the fact is that that is more entertaining to watch than if you put four minutes of -- >> i would say it was devastatingly damaging. >> no, no, no. it's not good or bad. it's compelling the watch. >> here's what it is. to ben carson's what i believe is ben carson's core of support,

evangelicals and we're talking about iowa in iowa, i don't think it hurts him with them. you know, there are dramatic convergence and there is the moment when you accept christ and your lord and savior. this is a core belief of a lot of people who are the core supporters of ben carson. but to others who may be shopping around and may want an outsider and think carson say great guy and like what they heard of him. it might have impact on them. you might say hold it, if his story is shaky. >> yeah. i don't disagree with that, gene. here you have donald trump trying, i think we all agree more like a presidential candidate and less like some guy whose off his rocker. >> he's confident.

>> he's confident. but to suddenly turn and do a 180 and accelerate in the other direction back toward these deeply personal. i agree with you. i don't think it hurts carson among his core. i worry, i don't worry at all. i think it might hurt trump among. >> no, it doesn't change. why does that hurt trump and saying john mccain -- it's the same matter. just watching this and watching you watch this. watching our incredible stage crew watching this bursting into laughter and allen, the stage manager going you're out. the last word that you hear on the sound bite before you comes back to actually speak on camera, your out cue is crap. my out cue is what? it's crap.

that was the last thing donald said or the way we edited it. the whole thing is crazy, kristin. yet there's an appeal here. we're seeing it in the polls and we saw some interesting numbers about the difference between primary voters and general election voters and the republican party. what's going on? >> what's also perplexing about trump is his quote doesn't come from the quote unquote base of the party. that's one of the big questions about whether or not these numbers donald trump is seeing in the polls will show up at the ballot box at the primaries? are these people who tell a pollster when we call them on the phone, yes, i like donald trump or are these the same folks that go caucus in iowa. what's going to hurt trump most is not the idea he's offensive. he's insulted veteran, he's offen offen offensi offensive. what will hurt him is being

boring and falling out of the headlines. in the last debate, donald trump was the third or fourth most interesting headline coming out of it. donald trump not being in the campaigns is not getting oxygen. he's four minutes. >> i thought it was smart in the debate. >> it would be smart normally but he's seen his numbers have plateaued and ben carson has eaten into some of his numbers. this is his response to get back in the headlines. i don't know if this ends up working this time. everyone says maybe this time is different. the only reason this could be different is that last debate was an interesting turns of the page in the republican primary. it was more substantive. >> ben carson is set to appear at evangelical bob jones

university for a town hall with u.s. senator tim scott and joining us from south carolina senior white house correspondent chris jansing. we've been discussing carson's ties and sources of information all morning long. first of all, have you heard any reaction either from dr. carson or his campaign to donald trump's tirade yesterday? >> yeah, very quickly they got back to me and said no comment. they're seeing this as donald trump looking not presidential. one of the things they've tried to do with dr. carson is make him look presidential. you can also look at the numbers, to pick up on what robinson had to say, not only do the voters believe in the transform tif moments when you

look at the numbers 57% of the people in the 2012 in iowa identify themselves as evangelicals. 65% in south carolina. so they look at those numbers and they'll let trump do what he's going to do. in the meantime they're responding to dr. carson's best friend. somebody who has built insurance companies out of $40,000. >> ben carson calls -- his best friend. owner of a resort where carson vacations. he's also a convicted felon. working out of this office costa scammed more than $40,000 to insurance companies. >> he caused the insurance companies to finances the expansion of his business. >> as first reported by the associated press in a bid for lean yancey ben carson wrote a

letter to the judge saying next to my wife of 32 years there is no one on the planet i trust more. we became friends because our value systems are almost identical. >> fraud is fraud and he pleaded guilty to fraud. >> he avoided prison getting three years probation including a career on house arrest in his mansion outside of pittsburgh. four years after carson appealed for leniency for his friend he argued the opposite for everyone else in a best selling book calling for a saud arabian solution for fraud. not advocating chopping off people's limbs but stiff penalties noless than ten years prison and loss of personal possessions. no comment from carson. in a statement today said of costa, i know his heart and i'm proud to call him my friend.

i will always continue to stand by him. that is what real friends do. it's been a lucrative friendship for dr. carson. our investigative unit poured through scores of documents as we were putting this story together including dr. carson's filings when he ran for president and those showed that dr. carson and his wife make between 200,000 and $2 million a year off their business association with costa and one final note, i was in touch with the campaign this morning and i heard you talk with general hayden and your conversation about dr. carson's comments about china being in syria. they sent me three sets of documents which i passed on to your executive producer. their claim is that dr. carson never intended to mean, we misinterpreted china was in there but they were exerted influence and their weapons had been sold there. big sets of documents that have been passed on to you.

>> we'll look forward to reading those. chris, thank you very, very much. at the very least if that's the case he was, okay. look, i'm still di jesting michael hayden's comments. that was incredible. i mean, i want to go back and watch the interview and try and take a second look. i don't agree. i just, i think you have to come to the table with more knowledge if you're going to run for president. it can't be learning now about some of the issues. maybe it's just me. it was also a big weekend for the g.o.p. in florida. former vice president dick cheney kicked off the party's three day summit in orlando

where he announced hillary clinton as unqualified to serve as the next president. white house correspondent is in orlando covering the summit. julie, what are you looking out for today among other things besides the candidates points of view? >> most of the leading contenders and some of the not so leading contenders are down here in florida for the big summit. it shows me how important florida is in the race and it's a state that's a little bit later in the calender than iowa and new hampshire. what i think is particularly interesting about this format is we've been so focussed on the debates in the g.o.p. primary and so influential, we go about another month before we have another debate. it's the forums and important states and retail politics becomes the focus for the next four weeks. >> julie, you're also reporting on rubio's campaign, they're trying to pair down their budget a little bit. shoe string budget including

trying to get wifi wherefore they can. tell us about that. >> the rubio campaign has been proud of the lean and mean montra they've had. this is partly out of necessity. rubio having momentum and moving up in the poles has lagged behind a lot of his rivals and fundraising. his campaign prides itself on being able to campaign in the early states and build out infrastruck which are on a shoe string budget and a couple of the things they've been doing in south carolina, they had staffers literally working out of there. one of their top staffers garages sitting at the tiny classroom desks and yard sale furniture. in nevada when they opened an office there a few weeks ago, the campaign realized the pizza place next door had wifi and required a password. one of the aids went over this and got the pizza and had a wifi password and mooched off the

pizza place until they told them to stop. >> we want to get you to other breaking news overnight. the u.s. military launched an air strike targeting the isis militant jihadi john. they tell nbc news there's no proof yet he was killed. british prime minister held a news conference a short time ago saying a similar thing. we cannot yet be certain that the militant known as jihadi john is dead. let's bring in nbc news correspondent simmons. what are you hearing? >> hey, mika. this morning one activist group are saying they believe jihadi john is dead and they have detail on what they said happened. it was a drone strike near the tower and it hit a car. that's what's being reported. jihadi john was in the car struck by a drone launched by

the u.s. as you mentioned, u.s. officials saying it is not definitive yet that he has been killed. by the way, another u.s. official saying this is not about vengeance. this is about proving to isis there has to be accountability for their actions. and the british prime minister describing jihadi john as the isis lead executioner said if he was killed by the u.s., it was an act of self-defense. so reaction already from various sides even when we don't have this confirmed and also from some of the victims families of jihadi john. the journalist mother saying i haven't really heard the news. if they got him great but it doesn't bring my son back. >> caddy kay, jump in. >> i was just wondering in a case like this idealy trying to confirm someone has been killed

they would get dna evidence. what can they do now to try and find out? what's the next steps they take? i'm assuming people in london are saying even if jihadi john has been killed isis has ten more like him lining up to take his place. >> they do. at the same time they see him as such an important if i can your publicly, isis used him in the chilling videos, they think there's at least a publicity hit against isis. to answer your first question, i guess, i mean without wishing to be too -- you have to look at homeland to understand what they'll do. they'll be monitoring what happened immediately after the strike as others go to try to establish what's happened in the car. they'll be looking just eyes on to see if they can see whether there are bodies and then have relativity sophisticated capability to identify whether it is jihadi john.

i think this has been announced early without the evidence because they will want to get ahead of isis. they don't want isis announcing it and not announcing who has been killed. it tells you something about how confident they are that their intelligence is right and they have hit the right person. >> nbc's drk simmons, thank you very much. the republican presidential candidates battle the debate to stand out over immigration. plus chuck todd takes a look at the general election. you're watching morning joe. we'll be right back. this holiday season, get ready for homecomings. i see you brought a friend? i wanna see, i wanna see.

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for instance, a majority of the current g.o.p. primary electorate is male while majority of the 2012 was female. a whopping 92% of current republican primary voters are white compared to just 72% of 2012 general election voters. as for african americans, 1% verses 13%. hispanics 4% verses 10 percent and the percentage of asians 1% verses 3%. it kind of, joining us now from washington, nbc news political director and moderator of meet the press, chuck todd. chuck, what does this tell us? >> it tells you that when you look at it, it is just two

different sets of voters. what motivates it, republicans are having to have a much different conversation with some of their voters and then having to sort of turn and have a different conversation with an elector elect electorate that's going to be less white. basically, the republican party elect elect elect electorate is getting less white. that and when you're going in two different directions, that's why the conversation on immigration is what it is right now inside the republican party. >> chuck, how different is it this time than other times? if you went back to 12 or 08 would you seen a bigger shift that the republicans had to make from their primary base to the general election make up? >> yes because the general election electorate is getting

less white every year. the problem is the republican primary electorate is not changing. yes, every two years the gulf widens. the republican electorate hasn't changed. >> it's happening from the general election side rather than the republican side. >> correct. that's another challenger from the republican party. they need to get to the point where there are nonwhite republican parties. >> dwonld trump might be setting the pace. now others are using it as a wedge too. senator ted cruz attacking marco rubio for working on immigration reforming 2013. >> republicans nominate, that is

a path to losing. >> my reaction in all of politics is talk is cheap. you know where someone is based on their actions. as scripture says, you should know them by their fruits. >> the gang of eight fought tooth and nail to try to jam this amnesty down the american people's throat. >> rubio said yesterday that cruz was rewriting history while his campaign circulated a clip of a senator advocating to get legal status to the undocumented in 2013. >> ted is a supporter of legalizing people in the country legally. in fact, when the senate bill was proposed he proposed legalizing people.

>> i want immigration reform to pass. i would urge both sides of the aisle if the objective is to pass immigration reform. we should look for areas of bipartisan agreement and compromise to come together. >> okay. cruz has unwillingness to compromise. chuck todd, you mentioned looking at the numbers and how they divide up, that's why immigration is a big issue. donald trump is lucky or smart. he keeps dropping the right bombs. he started this during the debate especially and in our show digging deeper and now all these candidates are throwing mud at each other on this very issue.

>> they are. you look at ted cruz and thought he would be the toughest immigration candidate and all the sudden trump is out lengfla. i get what rubio is doing. my big question on rubio is how does he get to the republican primary with his stance on immigration and obviously, what rubio is hoping to do is blur the lines with cruz and at least hope that as cruz hits him he's saying hooe saying he's being a hypocrite. it's interesting cruz's explanation yesterday as opposed to two years ago. that may be the case but boy, that's a tough video tape to live down because he is not comfortable saying what he would do with the 11 million men here.

he has never answered that question. >> chuck todd, thank you. what are you working on for sunday's meet the press? >> we have speaking of immigration, we have jeb bush. so we'll have the governor on plus we're going to tackle missouri with a university president that sort of ducked these controversies, handled it quickly. daif david born of the university of oklahoma. >> coming up, hillary clinton has an old story about a meeting about joining the marine corp. years ago. though we've heard it before, she's now facing new skepticism and the last leg of our five city know your value tour is next friday in orlando, florida. martha stewart and racheal ray joining us on stage. we're talking to women across the country about knowing their value and learning to communicate it effectively. there's a lot of interest. we're expanding the room. you can get information and

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vrj people are sick and tired of

watching what's going on. they're sick and tired with her and her whole big attitude. and she's playing the woman card up. that's all she has. outside of the woman's card, she has nothing. she's playing the woman's card big. i know so many women that said i wouldn't vote for her. if you gave me a million dollars i wouldn't vote for her. >> that's the first time i saw that and i don't think i would do that. >> yeah. >> yeah. she was the senator for new york and you actually, donald trump has never run for office. kind of hard to make that argument. >> wow. okay. anything you would like to say? >> no. i think it's just like completely making stuff up, right. >> that was unbased. hillary clinton has revived a personal story out on the campaign trail about how she was

abducted -- by a marine recruiter. first story she told a year and a half after becoming first lady. it popped up again in new hampshire this week. >> he looked at me and said how old are you? i said i'm 26. i'll be 27. he said well, that's kind of old for us. then he says to me maybe the -- will take you, meaning the army. >> republicans pounced after the retelling of the story suggested an embellishment and after june 1994, the new york times had skepticism about this writing quote even given the fact that the nation has become a custom to mrs. clinton's intriguing shape and system and the latest is jarring and did not seem to fit in with the first lady's persona.

she was an upcoming legal star. meanwhile, john mccain tweeted okay. so that was something that she said she embellished once. i'm more taken by the round table and everybody laughing at her jokes. like on cue. is this a big deal? >> no. >> guys, everybody's going to have to get. >> i'm bored reading it. did you see? >> here are the facts about hillary clinton. the facts are she's very well trained. >> and experienced. >> the facts are also there's a trust issue and always will be. >> alex. >> that's a good point. >> republicans can keep going she said this story in 1976 and the e-mails and it doesn't stick. >> if a republican did this, would we be pouncing all over it? that's the argument. >> well, no. the issue, if you want to put this in the ben carson context,

the issue is 19 separate cases where he had either made stuff up or whatever. i think that's different from one or two or three per candidate. everybody. >> the story, is the story not true? >> no. no. no. they're, i've seen fact checkers looking into this. it seems that there was a conversation between her and a recruiter. the issue as i've seen it framed is was she sincerely trying to join the marine corp. or was she making a point about the women's access to the military and how women were received when they came through a recruiter. so there seemed to be two versions of that story. by c by friends who knew her at the time, they said they recalled the incident. >> do you think american voters are making one voter is making a decision on that, what her motivation was.

guys, and the american pop ewe list understands politicians, we get it. with all of them. with every human being on this planet, by the way. every human being. this is why we don't run for office. if you document the last 25 years, everybody's embellished and twisted and revisited history. it's like they're human beings and all the same. we're all the same. >> yes. >> my re action to that has nothing to do with the content but more just the campaign still doing these events where everyone's kind of. >> are you an honest person? >> i'm an honest person, yes. >> would you say if we did a deep dive into the last 20 years of every conversation that there's been things either twisted or embellished or mislead but you're an honest person. we're human beings. we got to get over and it stop holding politicians to accountability.

there's one of these continual bull face lies. >> i agree with you. i think when we had a situation that hit close to home i had real sympathy for it. i think it is a very human urge or whatever. i think the difference between the democrat and the republican is alex pointed out in my ear here, we were having this conversation. when you're looking at ben carson, we don't know anything about him. he doesn't know anything about a lot of the issues. all we got is his life story. this is why these things seem to frame bigger. >> as they should. >> maybe that's not fair. again, check the michael hayden interview. i could be wrong. >> you don't get to sleep tonight. >> honesty and trance parn si about my instincts. i was freaked out. we'll play it again at 8:30. there have been a lot of major breaking national security stories including advancements in the battle against isis. the top democrat, congressman

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in a strapg way isis is a state, not just a movement. we can punish them with air strikes. i said about a year and a half ago air strikes without ground power is a lot like casual sex it offers gratification without commitment. >> that was the former cia and nsa director general michael hayden earlier on morning joe. that was just the beginning. that was a wide ranging fascinating. >> you're scarred from that. >> that's what we call an unexpected analogy. >> i actually, little bit of a plagiarist stealing from the school of relationships. >> i'm very uncomfortable right now. >> this is the pot calling the kettle black.

>> okay. watch the show, donnie. moving on now, joining us now from washington ranking member from the house intelligence committee congressman adam shift of california. also washington director of the transit national threat project thomas sanderson. good to have you both on board. adam shift, let me start with you in terms of any new intelligence on information we received over night about the month peshl death of jihadi john. >> mika as you were commenting earlier, we don't have the ability to access the site and we're not going to likely get dna here. we're going to be listening to what the jihadis are saying about themselves and about the strike to the air. i have to say if the u.s. military is that much out front this early on in claiming that they struck him, they must be fairly confident that indeed he

was hit. whether he was killed or not will take some time. >> caddy kay. >> i was wondering if you could put together pieces of the puzzle. it looks like the killing not confirmed yet. which would be a blow for isis. >> yet at the same time we're getting these problems being claimed by the islamic state. where would you put the organization more broadly at the moment in its capacity? >> in its capacity it remains high. it's operational tempo was high. i think the bombs were planned quiet sometime ago and it's not necessarily a response to what we're doing. our off tempo is high and they're off tempo is high and i expect to see a lot more combat across the region. >> gene robinson. >> i was told recently by a knowledgeab knowledgeable person in the middle east, essentially, if you want to get rid of isis, you need 30-40,000 ground troops

from somewhere. we can bomb and bomb and use the drones. we're not going to get rid of isis unless we get troops on the ground. is that an accurate assessment? >> i think that's impossible to determine. we don't really know what it would be like on the ground against a group like isis. they're spread out. they have lots of different folks in different places. we don't have enough intelligence to know exactly what forth requirements we have here. it's difficult to say. i can say that having such numbers would be effective if executed in a proper manner. all of that is very much speculation at this point. >> steve ratner. >> congressman, how do you see this all unfolding at this point in terms of next steps by us and by our allies? what's going to happen next in your mind? >> well, i think we're going to see more of what we have been

seeing and that is stra stetegi retaking. efforts to go after oil obstruction. that, i think is as discussing, would require a larger ground force and probably there the big question is whether the turks are prepared to go into that zone and go across the syrian border and occupy that, which we would assist from the air. but this really can't be american boots on the ground and the question is, are there going to be sufficient other ground forces that have the combat capabilities that are necessary. i'll add a step to that. it's not just a question of the ground forces. ultimately it's going to require that the sunnis have a place to go that's not isis and in iraq is not being excluded from this, what they view as a

tehran-backed shia government. there has to be a political answer for the sunni population as well as a ground force capable of defeating isis. >> thomas anderson, i want to ask you about the drone strike, whether it got jihadi john or not, we know that there was a u.s.-led zone strike. tell us about how much we know about the scale of the use of these drone strikes and their effectiveness given the unrest we're dealing with. . >> sure. we have to turn to drones to do a lot of the work but without the troops on the ground, we don't have as much intelligence as we had afghanistan when we had large deployments there. nonetheless, if strike, if it turns out to be successful, indicates that we have the capability of locating these individuals through electronic means or with human intelligence on the ground. they are an effective tool. nothing is fair in warfare, the drones remain one of our best

choices in this operation. >> thomas anderson, thank you very much. congressman adam schiff, thank you as well. what was said about ben carson's foreign policy chops. not the answer any of us expected. we'll be right back. give you 37-thousand to replace it. "depreciation" they claim. "how can my car depreciate before it's first oil change?" you ask. maybe the better question is, why do you have that insurance company? with liberty mutual new car replacement, we'll replace the full value of your car. see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. theand to help you accelerate,. we've created a new company... one totally focused on what's next for your business. the true partnership

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well, donald trump hinted he might consider chris christie for his ticket if he wins the nomination. not to be his vice president, to

be his wall between america and mexico. another gop candidate, carly fiorina, is being criticized for changing the story of how she met vladimir putin, where they met and what they talked about. so, in other words, they definitely met on tinder. i heard that a couple weeks ago that rick santorum and ted cruz spent some time hunting pheasants in iowa. and when donald trump heard that, he said, why wasn't i invited? i love hunting peasants? >> wow. up next, donald trump's wildest speech yet. his tough talk on isis with just a dash of profanity. hillary clinton, president obama and somewhere along the way he decides to stop holding back against his closest rival, ben carson. and boy did he not hold back. into plus, the polling that

explains why some insiders in the republican establishment are renewing talk about drafts mitt romney? "morning joe" is back in a moment. ♪ don't just eat. mangia! bertolli. i use what's already inside me to reach my goals. so i liked when my doctor told me i may reach my blood sugar and a1c goals

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i was getting killed by these people. mr. trump doesn't have a plan for isis. i said, no, i have a plan but i don't want to tell isis what it is. but i had to. i said to my wife, i said, you know, i've got to tell them about this plan. i'm going to have no choice. because otherwise i'm not going to win. people are thinking like i don't have a plan. i would bomb the [ bleep ] out

of them. >> good morning to you. welcome to "morning joe." with us on set, washington post and msnbc analyst eugene robinson. now to some who we are going to see donny deutsch, i'm going to be in it, right? >> you were in the first -- >> that's not enough. >> you're in episode four. >> this is exciting. >> i'm not in until episode 6. >> that's a shame for you. former treasury official and analyst steve rattner. >> and my feelings are totally hurt. >> get him a tub of money. come on, now. >> we did not want to go for the 000.0 -- >> we're starting ugly. >> donny deutsch -- >> i had that covered. i covered that.

>> and in washington, washington anchor for bbc "world news america," caddy kay and kristen anderson is joining us as well. you heard donald trump talk about how he would bomb the -- breaking news overnight, jihadi john, the man who appears in those videos, showing the beheadings of three americans was targeted by u.s. air strikes and we await air from the pentagon whether or not he is actually dead. so we'll talk about that. but obama certainly hasn't held back on his drone strikes and just keeping that in mind, there's a phrase that's not necessarily a strategy that hasn't been used. >> you have to wonder -- we have much more of that coming up. even in terms of optics, that's important. because those videos have been

pivotal. in terms of isis' imprint on the world. we begin with politics and what some consider an epic rally by donald trump and even by his standards, campaigning in iowa, he renewed his attacks on ben carson and, boy did he, targeting a signature part of the neurosurgeon's biography, his own claims of a violent youth. but last night, trump made a striking comparison. >> now, carson's an enigma to me. he wrote a book and he's doing great in iowa. he's second in the polls. with all of these professional politicians, i'm first, carson is second. and i don't understand it. i really don't understand it. because he wrote a book and in

the book he said terrible things about himself. he said that he's pathological and he's got basically pathological disease. i don't want a person that's got pathological disease. i don't want it. now, i'm not saying it. he said it. it's not where i'm saying, he's a pathological liar. i'm not saying it. he said he's got pathological disease. he actually said pathological temper and then defined it as disease. if you're a child molester, a sick, puppy, you're a child molester, there's no cure for that. there's only one cure. we don't want to talk about that cure. that's the ultimate cure. no, there's two. there's death and the other thing. but if you're a child molester, there's no cure. they can't stop you. pathological, there's no cure. now, he said he was

pathological. okay. think of this. he went after his mother with a hammer. at a fairly young age. 14, 15 years old. i didn't. i didn't. okay. he hits a friend of his in the face with a padlock. like a massive padlock. in the face with a padlock. a lot of damage. okay? i never did that. then here's the beauty of all. he took a knife and he went after a friend and he lunged, he lunged that knife into the stomach of his friend but, lo and behold, it hit the belt. it hit the belt. and the knife broke. give me a break. let me tell you, i'm pretty good at this stuff. so i have a belt.

somebody hits me with a knife, it's going in because the belt moves this way. it moves this way. it moves that way. but he took the knife and went like this. and he plunged it into the belt. and amazingly the belt stayed totally flat and the knife broke. how stupid are the people of iowa? how stupid are the people of the country to believe this crap? [ applause ] >> oh, my god. you would not believe -- okay, that's your reaction. >> are you applauding because you like him? >> i have no other visceral reaction. >> by the way, the other day i said we need animation because i don't know if you can actually stab a belt buckle. >> well, how about a reaction to just plain, old depression that

this is american politics? >> i'm going to say what i just saw here. you have your charts here. >> right. >> and first you were disgusted and looking at your charts and then i saw you look up and then i saw you look up again and then i saw you crack a smile and then i saw you starting to laugh and nod. that's all. i'm just saying. there's a little bit of evolution in your reaction but then -- >> but at no moment did i say, gee, i might vote for this guy for president. >> there was that for you. >> so i'm going to -- i'm like a pig and you know what because this guy is such -- he's compelling. you cannot not watch that. you cannot not listen to that whole harang. it went on for 95 minutes. he spoke for something like 95 minutes at this rally. >> kristin -- >> that's why they call it epic. >> he's very simple. athis and this is what i would say to

donald. it's obviously entertaining. we go back to his other statement, we're going to bomb the -- that's what the average person of this country would say. let's find the country isis and bomb it. >> that resonated, actually. >> but that's my point. it's such theater of the absurd, then peppered with the most simplistic statement. but, yes, your point as well. there's a difference between wanting to be entertaining and wanting to watch and wanting to vote and he's got to take that step at some point. >> and i would suggest calling the people of iowa stupid for not seeing all of this was not necessarily the best way to get their votes. >> i think he was asking the question, hold on one second, kristen, chime in and then i want to get caddy kay. >> i think this could go either way for trump. the idea that he's been over the line, he's been over the line a million times at this point. that's not going to change his poll numbers. where the risk comes for trump in all of this is ben carson's

favorables are unbelievable in poll after poll. americans love him. americans of all political affiliations. >> does this impact the favorables? >> i don't know if donald trump can pull down ben carson's favorables because there's such a big gap between them. that's the risk. that's why donald trump is trying to do it. he's trying to put them on a more even playing field. it could backfire. people could say, you've insulted all of these people but ben carson is a smart man, not him. >> caddy kay, this is trump working to take down carson and using his words against him. >> yeah. and the question has to be, what does it do to trump rather than what it does to carson. every time trump does something like when he questioned whether john mccain was a war hero, we all thought, wow, this is going to be trouble for trump. he's gone a step too far. the step that i -- it seems to be a cardinal rule running for the president, you don't criticize the voters, ever.

he's just done that. okay. he phrased it as a question but effectively he's just done that. now, what does that do to his standing in iowa? traditionally you would think it pulled him down in iowa. this isn't a traditional race. we don't know how this is going to play out. maybe his supporters will just love him more for it. >> alex just told me there's a woman there who her reaction is -- i will put myself in this category -- i'm still processing. there was so much there. >> yeah. >> and i think -- go ahead. >> it seems to me, the last few weeks, almost the last month, trump has actually dialed it down a notch, right? >> yeah. >> he's been more like not a traditional candidate, certainly, but he's been a bit quieter, a bit less bombastic and it seemed to me that he switched it back on and decided that if he's going to deal with ben carson, that only one outsider is likely to survive deep into the primary season if

he's going to take down carson and his favorables, he has to go back to being trump. >> right. >> which worked very, very well for him before. now, can you insult the first state in the nation to vote in that way and the people in it? i'm not sure. maybe he's writing them off. maybe that was an appeal to new hampshire and not iowa. >> i think there is a disconnect between those who see carson as this inexplicable reality at the top of the polls and those who are all in and i don't know how, at this point, you cut in to that unless you perhaps question them. i don't know. i'm not an expert on how to -- >> i think at this point, the trump cake is baked. i mean, if you were buying that -- >> if you're buying that, you're standing up and clapping like you. >> and if you're not buying it, you're not going to stop buying it. >> right. >> that cake is baked. i can't see it at this point --

this is such a clearly defined brand. this is not jeb bush where we're seeing where it gets baked in the oven. so what you see with that guy is what you get and at this point you're going, now i've fallen in love. >> and then people in iowa and new hampshire, they say, okay, the trump show is great, it was amusing but should this guy really be president? >> i've got to move on. white house national security adviser susan rice has responded to ben carson's claim of a chinese presence -- i know. it seems like -- i know. it's not just me. >> yeah, it's not just you. >> what is he talking about? >> he threw his hands in the air. this is the arguably -- >> i wish that were the most bizarre thing he said, though. >> how about important? all right, alex. i'm sorry. we just kind of can't still get

over that. a reminder of what he said now followed by susan rice. >> we also must recognize it's a very complex place. you know, the chinese are there as well as the russians. >> i really can't speak to what he was referring to. unless you're talking about having a diplomatic presence, i'm not sure what he was referring to. >> is there any military involvement, was the imt plication? >> i have not seen any chinese military involvement in syria. >> after carson was challenged about his information on wednesday, he explained that it came from a secret source. he claimed armstrong williams backed up yesterday. >> i would have to refer you to some other people that could get you the actual data but they've shown it to me. >> dr. carson said that the chinese were -- are in syria,

which is not accurate. >> well, tamron, from your perspective and what most people know, maybe that is inaccurate. but from our intelligence, people who are on the ground and have been involved in that region of the world, the chinese are there. but it's our intelligence and i am certain the chinese are there. >> who is briefing him? >> this is not the first time dr. carson has claimed a secret source. >> his relationships go way, way, way back, you know. 1968, at a university, that's when putin first got to know the

khamenei and all of these relationships are very, very complex. in the class of 1968 and the university in moscow, mahmoud abbas, they were classmates. that's when they first established relationships with a young vladimir putin. >> except, at the time, vladimir putin was 16 years old. living in lenengrad, not moscow. after being questioned, dr. carson would not disclose his sources but told cbn news, he learned about the ties between the three leaders from advisers across the government, including the cia. he said the connection helps describe what is happening around the world. katty kay? >> he puts in these very specific details about the

university in moscow that make it sound incredibly credible and yet just like the chinese example, there are serious questions about whether he has these facts straight on foreign policy. i mean, if he had just come in to this race a month ago, you might think to yourself, he's not up to speed on foreign policy. but dr. carson has been running for six months and he was planning to run for six months or a year before that. he could easily surround himself by foreign advisers and do the homework. that's what this is all about. doing the homework and getting the facts straight. there is no evidence that the chinese are militarily involved in syria. there is none. no foreign policy in washington will tell you that. and it's egregious that he has not put in the effort at this stage in his campaign to get his foreign policy accurate. let's get to some real foreign policy and that breaking news overnight that the u.s. military launched an air strike targeting the isis militant

known as jihadi john. a senior u.s. counterterrorism official confirmed the strike but tells nbc news that there is, quote, no definitive proof yet that he was killed. british prime minister david cameron held a news conference a short time ago. he said, we cannot be certain that the militant known as jihadi john is dead. missy ryan has been following this story overnight. missy, what are you hearing from your sources? >> reporter: actually, my colleague adam goldman and i covered this story yesterday. there was a drone that conducteded a striconducted a strike on a vehicle. jihadi john was the person we first knew as the masked militant who beheaded american james foley and a number of other western hostages. but u.s. military officials are still assessing whether or not

emwazi was actually killed in the strike. while there's some indication that the strike was successful, they don't have full confidence yet that he was actually killed and that could be a matter of days or, frankly, they could never confirm with total certainty whether he was killed. it's just one of those things where the intelligence is difficult, especially in a situation like syria where there's no major american presence on the ground and he was killed in the sort of center of isis territory. >> all right. missy ryan, thank you very much for that update on the story that you broke yesterday. we're following breaking news in the effort to retake isis-controlled town of sinjar. kurdish forces have now entered the northern iraqi town and are clearing out the isis militants. the operation to retake it began yesterday with the help of some 20 u.s. air strikes. peshmerga forces have also reportedly recaptured a main highway that isis uses to

transport supplies between iraq and syria. we are told the kurdish forces have retaken the city at this point. meanwhile, it's a national day of mourning in lebanon following yesterday's twin bombings near the capital city of beirut. at least 43 people killed and more than 200 injured when twin explosions went off in a shopping area. isis quickly claimed responsibility for the attack. according to the global security firm flash point intelligence, isis militants say a motorcycle equipped with explosives was detonated first followed by a suicide bomber wearing a vest of explosives. officials say this appears to be the first suicide bombing of isis in lebanon. still ahead on "morning joe," are the markets poised to bounce back after a tough day on wall street? plus, why the republican primary vote could define the gop for generations. we're breaking down the numbers and why some in the party reportedly want to hit a panic

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new polling data collected by nbc news and "the wall street journal" over the past two months is revealing how different the current primary electorate is from the general electorate of 2012. look at this. for instance, a majority of current gop primary elect its mail while the 2012 general electorate was female a whopping 92% of current primary voters are white. 1% for african-americans versus

13%. hispanics, 4% versus 10% and the percentage of asians, 1% versus 3%. combining the last two months of data reveals an interesting though not surprisingly trend in the gop field. combined data from september to october shows that 75% of gop primary voters could now see themselves supporting ben carson up 34 points from the combined data between march and july. donald trump is up 20% in this category over the same span and carly fiorina is up 23 points. meanwhile, ted cruz and marco rubio have, for the most part, held steady while jeb bush has dropped 11 points. this all helps explain the front page story in this morning's washington post and the growing worry within the gop establishment that donald trump or ben carson could actually win the nomination. the headline is, gop preps panic button. okay.

robert costa write, "less than three months before the kickoff iowa caucuses, there is growing anxiety bordering on panic among republican elites about the dominance and dur ra built of donald trump and ben carson. some in the party are so desperate to change the dynamic that they are talking about drafting mitt romney, despite his insistence he will not run again. rob acosta is joining us on the set. the panic about carson and trump, are they the same panic? the same kind of panic? >> when people within the republican establishment look at carson's durability, they have about 50% of the republican primary electorate. it hasn't gone away. this has been a four-month journey for these two candidates and no one has found a way to take them out. >> except for the fact that they are outsiders -- and i guess i would put carly fiorina in the category as well, who are they

most afraid of? >> i think they are most afraid of trump. >> really? >> i think so. there's a sense that carson doesn't have the same organization and name recognition. they look at trump and the depth of his i.d. and how people have responded to donald trump and i think he's improved as a candidate. that's the establishment view of trump. compared to last night, he was a different last night but he's become more disciplined in general. >> all right. the racial differences, kristen, as a pollster, what do you make of those? >> well, it's certainly the case that whether you're talking about the republican party or democratic party, their primary electorates, their base, don't necessarily look like all of america put together. they are specialized constituencies with demographic groups to which they perform more effectively. the challenge for the republican party is going to be, can me find a nominee who can win in the primary electorate in these

early primary states but can also have a message that can expand the electorate come november. that's the big challenge. what's fascinating, though, in national polls, when you look at these ballot test matchups, hillary clinton versus a republican, bernie sanders versus a republican, ben carson is consistently the strongest performing republican in a lot of these matchups, which i think is another thing confounding to the establishment. what people are looking for is someone new, that pulling someone who has already run before is actually the opposite of the direction that i think you'd need to go if you really wanted to convey to the republican primary electorate that you're somebody who is new and is going to be different. coming up, as kurdish forces retake a town, american drones try to take out jihadi john. what will it take for america to

change the policy in the middle east? senator mark warner joins us with his perspective, ahead. ♪ it's the final countdown! ♪ ♪ the final countdown! if you're the band europe, you love a final countdown. it's what you do. if you want to save

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it's exciting. off book out. >> i do. >> senior contributor for "the daily caller," matt lewis and author of the new best seller, "fast break," it's not his 13th book. he's written 30.

his 13th to hit the best seller list. >> uh-huh. >> this looks great. thank you for being on today. we'll get to this in just a moment. we're going to attack politics first. matt, gene, you were there. let's get these guys to chime in. >> uh-huh. >> let's bring you up to speed here. we want to just update you. we're going to play a conversation we had with the former director of the nsa and cia, retired general the very well-respected michael hayden. he had what we thought were some surprising thoughts on presidential candidate ben carson, his foreign policy acumen, specifically. >> i had one lengthy phone call with dr. carson about two months ago. >> and? >> and his instincts are all right but this is a database with which he is very unfamiliar. i think what he was trying to say, mika, and i watched your piece on this yesterday, i think he was trying to say when we're absent from the playing field, we leave a vacuum in which other

powers may enter. now, in this particular case, the russians are there. i would characterize the chinese as merely interested. and so i think he overstated the data in that point. but again, it's more of the details than the broad instinct. >> and when you have that time with him, did you gather that he had the ability to wrap his head around these issues? >> mika, good questions, honest dialogue and i must admit, what you see publicly is what you get personally. a well-meaning, serious, bright man trying to understand things, which is life experience hasn't given him understanding about in the past. >> we'll start with matt lewis. your thoughts, matt? >> first, what a great interview, first of all. it's a great thing about live tv, you never know what is going to be said. i was surprised by what was short of a ringing endorsement but still pretty darn good. i think, second, first of all,

it's obviously a good thing that ben carson is talking to people, like general hayden. >> right. >> i think that's a very good sign. >> that's a good sign. >> and i guess the third thing would be, look, it may be interesting that ben carson who has never been elected to anything, who has no governing experience is leading in the polls but the facts are that he is a front-runner now and i'm heartened a little bit by the facts that general hayden believes that even though he's not an expert on foreign policy or national security, he at least has the right instincts. i'm a little bit relieved to hear that, frankly. >> if you watched the whole interview online, i can't even go to break. i said, are you sure? can you answer that again? do you want a redo? and he doubled down, mike. what are your thoughts? >> mika, running for president is not like some class that you're supposed to audit. these conversations probably should have been held way before he decided to do this.

this is for people whoever thought he was going to be the nominee for president. he's not going to be. this has nothing to do with his personal journey, which ever parts actually happened. but think about where we are in this campaign. we've got a guy who is a front-runner who is insulted that we don't think he stabbed somebody when he was a kid. >> i know. >> and that he was some sort of wimp, no good nonstabber and to the point where you actually wait for him to produce this guy, bob, and say, no, the guy really did come at me with a knife. >> but i was saved by the belt. >> gene, michael hayden, who we had on this show and we respect a great deal, he also said, what you see is what you get. what have i missed about what i've seen? >> well, no -- i listened to that the second time. >> yeah. >> what he's saying is more nuance than when i heard it the first time. he did say, what you see is what

you get. >> what is that? >> what we see is somebody who doesn't know anything and that's what you get. and he said, you know, he complimented carson's instincts. at no point did he say anything about the state of carson's understanding or wisdom about foreign policy. >> and said it was limited. matt, go ahead. >> mika, this whole process has been interesting to me. you keep making this point and, you're right, he's running on his personal journey. and by the way, it is honorable enough and what actually happened to him but that doesn't qualify him to be president of the united states. >> it's important to be respectful and i worried about my tone over the past few days, matt lewis, having said that,

this isn't a serious candidate, is it? is it my ideology, my world view, my party? what am i missing here? >> mika, i thought you were very appropriate in the interview with general hayden and you were a little incredulous but that's a fair point. clearly carson was out over hes skis on the china and syria thing. but i will say this, to me i think the most important thing is having the right world view and the right instincts. now, i don't necessarily think that americans are going to elect somebody president who is not either a high-ranking military officer or who has never been elected ever but ben carson is a front-runner and the fact is, i would rather have somebody who has the right instincts and right foreign policy world view than somebody who has the wrong instincts and wrong foreign policy world view

but happens to know a lot about -- >> we're stretching, aren't we? are we stretching to hope that we like someone somehow? >> look, instincts can be overrated, right? because we all have instincts. you stick your hand in a fire and instinctively you bring it out. so instincts only take you so far if you don't have a base of knowledge. if you don't know who is who, what is what, what has happened, what is happening now, right. what the implications of doing "x" are as opposed to "y," these are important things to know. >> the papers that ben carson's team provided for chris jansing, we're still going through them. there's some interesting sourcing. that's all i'll say at this point. anyhow -- >> this claim he makes about putin and khamenei and abbas

getting together -- putin was 16. abbas may have been in moscow. there's no indication that he went to this university. khamenei has never been there, as far as anyone can tell. it's simply ridiculous. and you can't call it anything else. >> but did he want to be a marine and astronaut? >> you know, i don't know. we'll find out. >> donald trump lobbed bomb after bomb at the republican field. it was unbelievable. >> mika, yesterday i actually was saying -- i've known donald for 30 years and i said i don't know if i like the kinder, gentler trump. she said, no, it's just a trump. and literally within hours -- i was like, whoa, slow down, big boy. >> literally, bomb after bomb

after bomb. >> can anybody in the audience, anybody, including these folks, they are very nice. they don't sit down. they are still standing. they are all excited. i love that. all right. p pretend anybody in the audience is president and the great guides come in, the general, mr. president, we have osama bin laden. we have a choice, we can leave him alone, mr. president, or we can either take him or bomb the hell out of him. who is going to leave him alone? that's the only thing they can point to and that was years ago. it's a long time ago. so just take him. and our s.e.a.l.s did a great job. i've met two of them. they are great guys. but who would say, don't get him? would anybody say that? you say, go get them. and then they sit around waiting and the answer is a good answer. and i want to give them credit

but who would say, oh, you have osama -- let's not -- oh, great. >> i'm just -- matt lewis, help. >> i'm going to give president obama a little bit of credit here. >> absolutely. that took -- >> this was not a slam dunk. >> no. >> we had a situation where president obama decided to go in to pakistan and it could have gone very wrong. >> believe me -- believe me, these missions can go badly and they do. >> he could have looked like jimmy carter and, remember, he ran on this. in the debates, then senator obama said, we will go into pakistan if we have to. >> yeah, did you see the speech, like lupica after your wife told you to hold your horses? >> it was. it was like rope a dope.

tricked us. >> fast break. give me the bottom line here. >> 12-year-old living on his own, i probably would throw more at this main character than i ever had. father dies, living on his own. he's ashamed to show up in these sneakers. he shows up at foster care and changes his life. >> matt lewis, thank you as well. appreciate it. still ahead, new signs that a fed rate hike is coming too plus, choosing sides. coming up on "morning joe."

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let's bring in cnbc's dominic chu. what do you have this morning? >> slight losses in the large cap stock indexes to start the day we're already fallen six of the last seven days.

that weakness has already caused loan depo to postpone its initial offering. albe albertsons citing poor market conditions. all of this narrative is likely to play into the discussion about the fed. contemplating at least one meeting left on a possible boost in interest rates in december. all of that downside action in stocks, we've already been seeing could give policy maker as moment of pause here before raising those benchmark interest rates and the financial markets are putting the odds of a possible december rate hike at around 68%. so this morning's weaker data in october retail sales and inflation could add more to that mix as well. there's one big story on the media side of things. competition heating up in terms of streaming movies and television. the wall street reporting that hulu could be in a talk to sell it is stakes to time warner. the deal and talks are in the early stages.

they may not lead to anything but could value hulu at around 5 billion bucks. hulu is already jointly owned by fox disney and nbc parent universal company comcast. back over to you. >> dominic chu, thank you. up next, mark warner is doing something most senators never will. he's taking part in a hack-a-thon. have you ever heard of that? we'll explain when he joins us next. mming at ge. oh i got a job too, at zazzies. (friends gasp) the app where you put fruit hats on animals? i love that! guys, i'll be writing code that helps machines communicate. (interrupting) i just zazzied you. (phone vibrates) look at it! (friends giggle) i can do dogs, hamsters, guinea pigs... you name it. i'm going to transform the way the world works. (proudly) i programmed that hat. and i can do casaba melons. i'll be helping turbines power cities. i put a turbine on a cat. (friends ooh and ahh) i can make hospitals run more efficiently... this isn't a competition!

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this week here in new york city, past companies innovation festival has brought people from around the world to share ideas about creativity and innovation. joining us now is the editor and managing director of fast company, bob saffion along with entrepreneur elizabeth gore. good to have you both. >> thank you. >> also, senator mark warner of virginia. they will be participating in today's so-called policy hack-a-thon which ends the innovation festival. we'll get to that in a moment and explain what it is. it looks like a great time as well as important. first, let's talk about the breaking news overnight, senator. you sit on the intelligence committee. what is your take so far about jihadi john. do we know anything more about whether it was him? >> we don't have any confirmation. we know this is a bad guy and

evil terrorist and, frankly, the world would be better off if easy limb nated. now, one of the things also that this raises, i'm going to be on this hack-a-thon. we think about drones from a military standpoint in the middle east. there's going to be a million drones sold this christmas. >> oh, my god. >> in the commercial sector and hobbyist sector. unmanned systems, you're talking about disruptive technology, whether it's driverless cars or drones in the air, this is going to be transformative as the wireless notion was a few years ago. >> elizabeth, you're the emcee. i want to hear from both of you. what is a hack-a-thon. >> it started as a silly idea where engineers got together and tried to solve a problem. spend all night and solve a problem and come up with a product. this is applying that to ideas,

really, and the intersections are entrepreneurs to get them to come up with and work alongside policy folks to come up with new ideas of ways that the government could operate and business could operate more closely together. this is really elizabeth's idea. this is the culmination of this week of activities that fast company has done, a hundred different events across the city and this is kind of the culmination of it. >> so this is "today in new york" and you're dealing with a number of interesting names who have also decided to take part of this. >> yes. we're very excited. we're hosting this and it's a wonderful accelerator here in new york and the fact that policy makers like senator warner and top-notch entrepreneurs are taking the time to really look at this and hack ideas that might actually turn in to policy that will help sme grow and change people's lives. >> what are some of the concepts you're looking for or you've seen happen? >> there's a whole series of

areas that we're looking at. if you step back from my day job, one, we could use some new good ideas. >> outside of -- >> outside of washington. maybe they don't follow the liberal path. the remarkable thing, you drill down on that, kaufman foundation said 80% of all of the net new jobs created over the last 30 years have come from startups. so if we can generate more startups, help support more entrepreneurs and they can bring new and innovative ideas about how we wrestle policy issues, let's have at it. >> you've had about 100 events featuring a lot of big names. >> oh, yeah. folks from apple and google and facebook and serena williams and the rock. a lot of engaging ideas which i think get people to a place where we can kind of try to take those ideas now and bring them in to this. >> i see rahm emanuel on that

graphic. you brought him in? >> he was barely sitting. he's an active fellow for sure. >> what are we going to see today, elizabeth? >> all of these great innovative minds having five minutes to actually think through, how could they use their companies and work with elected officials to actually impact people's lives for the positive. so, am i going to change someone's life, am i going to implement the new u.n. goals, create the next computer, we have to pair them together to make it happen. >> five minutes or less. >> the constraints, if you have constraints, it forces the ideas, it forces you to make solutions to make decisions and that's really what we are trying to do. >> exciting. >> and we're going to translate between the entrepreneur and the policy makers. i think they speak different languages. >> yes. >> the senate operated on a five-minute -- that would be wild. >> fast companies innovation concludes in new york city.

elizabeth gore and senator mark warner, thank you for sharing that with us. that does it for us this week. msnbc live picks up coverage after a quick break. we sent two women into a real guys night out to see if they could find the guy who uses just for men. it's me. no way. i had no clue. just for men gives you a natural gray-free look in just 5 minutes. it looks really good. great looking hair made easy. just for men. i use what's already inside me to reach my goals. so i liked when my doctor told me

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up with the isis executioner known as jihadi john. he was targeted in an air strike in syria overnight. while there's no confirmation of his fate, it represent as joint manhunt by the united states and britain. john, whose real name is known as mohamed emwazi is to blame for deaths of hostages. here is secretary kerry speaking in tunisia. >> we're still assessing the results of this strike but the terrorists associated with daesh need to know this. your days are numbered. and you will be defeated. >> nbc's keir simmons is live in london. what can you tell us? >> jose, this is a real blow to isis and a measure of how difficult it was, as you can imagine, that it has taken a year for them to get to this point at the least. at