it's monday, december 14th. right now on "first look" political tunes are shifting in the polls as donald trump unleashes on ted cruz, ahead of tomorrow's next gop debate. a controversial police shooting in los angeles was excessive force used? we'll show you the video. from cherry blossoms in d.c. to ice cream in the big apple. more northwest flooding and a snow blast in the middle. what's mind this crazy weather? plus, simple acts of kindness on the third anniversary of the newtown elementary school shooting. still perfect after week 14 in the nfl and a possible new player in the race for president. >> this is an important day.

i've made a big decision. i'm entering the race for president of the united states of america. >> definitely not. "first look" starts right now. good morning, i'm gigi stonewoods. tomorrow's republican presidential debate has the potential to be the most explosive yet with the iowa caucus seven weeks from today there's a lot to talk about, not least of which donald trump's latest controversial proposals. his lead in the gop race might not be as secure as he once thought. kristen welker reports. >> reporter: with ted cruz threatening to knock donald trump out of the top spot, the billionaire businessman again turned up the heat. >> i don't think he's qualified to be president. look at the way he's dealt with the senate, where he goes in there like frankly like a little bit of a maniac. zwrr a new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll puts cruz within striking distance of the front-runner.

trump gets 27% of gop primary voters nationally, while cruz nets 22%, an increase of 12 points for the texas senator, while marco rubio comes in third at 15% and in iowa, cruz tops trump by ten points. trump, who has resisted attacking cruz, his one-time supporter is now letting loose. >> i'm more capable because i have a much better temperament, because i actually get along with people much better than he does. >> reporter: cruz stayed off the sunday circuit, merely tweeting "thank you" in response to the iowa poll. both surveys provide a snapshot of how likely republican voters are reacting to trump's remarks last week. >> donald j. trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of muslims entering the united states. >> reporter: controversial comments he defended again. >> we have a problem. i'm not looking to be politically correct. i'm doing this to do the right thing. >> reporter: the new poll is an indication of just how fluid the race is, potentially giving

rivals an opening. >> the most important thing a president will be is commander in chief that requires having an understanding of the complex issues on foreign policy. i personally believe he continues to struggle to articulate that. >> reporter: for dr. ben carson who once topped the polls dropping 18 points to fourth place with just 50 days until the iowa caucuses, it's still anyone's game. >> that was kristen welker reporting. and overnight more brand new numbers from our nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. tracie potts joins us live from washington. good morning, tracey. tell us about these latest figures. >> reporter: gigi, these are the interesting numbers, the matchups between the democrats and the republicans and the big picture here, what they show us is the top republicans don't seem to be able to beat hillary clinton, while some of the lower ranked republicans do. let's take a look at those numbers. clinton versus trump, she would win if that election were held today by ten percentage points winning with independents and really big with hispanics.

clinton versus cruz who as you just showed was surging in the polls, a little bit closer there, he'd lose by only by three percentage points, versus the ten for donald trump, but then take a look at clinton clinton versus ben carson. he's seen a huge slide, 18 percentage points since our last poll, in his party, but could still beat hillary clinton by one percentage point which of course is in the margin of error. he actually wins independents by double digits which is a big deal in this poll and finally, marco rubio versus hillary clinton he has the best chance against her, fwaeting her by three percentage points according to our latest numbers. gee zblee. >> some intriguing new figures. tracie potts, thanks. if you're into politics you'll get a kick out of this, comedy star will ferrell bringing back president george bush. >> the field of republicans is so messed up it makes you miss me, doesn't it? jeb, oh, boy, poor jeb.

you got to admit it's a pretty good plot twist i turned out to be the smart one. of course, i wish you would have asked me about the exclamation point on the end of his name. look, i don't like the taste of broccoli, but it doesn't get any tastier if you call it broccoli. >> with this race, anything is possible. now winter starts one week from tomorrow but for much of the country it has not felt like it. two tornadoes ripped through texas over the weekend. the state of emergency was declared in lyndale, 50 homes were damaged. the weather caught the area off guard. >> it's unusual to have december tornadoes. this is just not the time of the year that we wrap up and prepare for this type of thing. >> it was so warm in washington,

dx, cherry blossoms were in bloom. in new york city tourists seem to be as interested in ice cream as in ice skating. but in kansas it was the other extreme, snowstorms dumped half dollar sized flakes and made for a slippery commute in dodge city. raphael miranda will have your forecast in a few minutes. there has been another deadly officer-involved shooting t happened saturday near los angeles. two sheriffs deputies confronted a man apparently carrying a gun. they fired 33 shots. it is raising questions whether the response was excessive and we should warn you, these images are disturbing. here's nbc's guy schwartz. [ bleep ]. >> reporter: tense moments in los angeles. [ bleep ] as deputies opened fire on a man with a gun. this cell phone video is extremely graphic. we've paused it here but as the shooting continues, the man identified as 28-year-old nicholas robertson falls and

then tries to crawl away, as deputies continue to fire 33 shots in less than 25 seconds. it's unclear how many of the bullets struck robertson. >> put your guns down. >> reporter: protests over the shooting as friends and family of the father of three took to the streets in outrage. >> he crawling on his knees. he was crawling on his knees and they kept shooting, why in. >> reporter: the los angeles county sheriff's department quick to tell their side of the story, providing pictures and video they say shows robertsons with a .45 caliber handgun. >> you see the suspect entering the frame, weapon in hand. he was behaving erratically, oddly and in a bizarre fashion. >> reporter: investigators received calls about shots being fired before they arrived and when they pulled up, deputies say robertson ignored their commands and was walking toward a gas station. >> there are two women and three children in a car at a gas pump that is within five feet of him at the time. >> reporter: activists are calling for an independent investigation and for the justice department to get

involved. >> no justice, no peace. >> reporter: while law enforcement is hopeful that sharing more information may help calm potential unrest. gadi schwartz los angeles. >> good morning, landon dowdy. >> good monday morning to you. apple music gets an exclusive video with taylor swift. the streaming service will air a concert from her tour and apple will get her name and likeness and holiday gift cards. your local post office will be extra busy today. the biggest day of the year for mailing cards, letters and packages. the postal service estimates more than 15 billion pieces of holiday mail will be sent this year. diamonds are still a girl's best friend and men are paying up, a study finds men are spending $6,000 on average for engagement rings up from $5,000

four years ago and not keeping the price a secret. two-thirds of brides say they know how much their fiances spent, back to you. >> that does not seem romantic at all. >> but still pretty. i'd take it. in sports three games away from perfection, carolina panthers are 13-0 after rolling the atlanta falcons in a 38-0 clubbing. carolina clinched a first round buy in the playoffs. patriots rebound from a two-game skid, tom brady connecting with rob gronkowski for the score, gronk's first game back from the knee injury. pats beat the texans 27-6. andy dalton broke his right thumb trying to make a tackle on this interception. pittsburgh wins this one 33-20. the washington redskins haven't won a road game in more than 13 months and blew a 21-7 lead against the bears but dustin hopkins' 47-yard field

goal proved the winner as washington stayed atop the nfc east, redskins 24, bears 21. in the nba, check out this amazing feat with 0.7 of a second on the clock, oklahoma city thunder russell westbrook bounces the ball off rodney hook's back side and shoots the 15-footer to beat the buzzer. oklahoma city went on to win in overtime 104-98. a big day ahead for baltimore jury in the freddy gray case. plus, why one school is devoting itself to 26 days of kindness.

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that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. good morning everyone. welcome back. the record warmth we saw over the weekend across the northeast will continue on this monday, temperatures soaring into the 60s and 70s in places like new york city and washington, d.c. now we are tracking some rain moving from places like chicago into the ohio valley and it is cold enough for snow across some parts of the country especially the rockies, some snow there. that will move into the plains as we head into your tuesday.

little snowy from denver into the dakotas for your tuesday, drying out and cooling down in chicago and the northeast still warm, temperatures should be in the mid-40s this time of year, even for tomorrow, we're back into the 60s, and this warmth just goes on and on. it looks like it will cool down a little bit as we enter the weekend gigi but right now by christmas we could have temperatures surging again so a white christmas in the northeast looking unlikely. >> that's okay, i like the warm weather. thanks for bringing it to us, rafael. now today we do have closing arguments made in the trial of officer william porter. he is the first of six policemen in baltimore charged in the death of freddy gray. gray died in april while in police custody. the prosecution claims porter contributed to gray's death by not calling for medical help and not buckling him in. his case will now be up to a jury, decides if porter is guilty of manslaughter, second-degree assault and reckless endangerment. three years ago today a gunman entered sandy hook

elementary school in newtown, connecticut. 26 people died, 20 of them were children. not far from newtown another school is marking the anniversary and honoring those who died with 26 days of kindness. nbc's harry smith has that story. >> everyone all set in. >> reporter: mary callahan has an assignment for her students at notre dame catholic high school in fairfield, connecticut. >> we'll give you 5 minutes or so. >> reporter: moments later they begin writing. you could hear a pin drop. the task? send a letter. >> dear newtown school teacher. >> reporter: to a teacher or a first responder in newtown or elsewhere in the country. >> to first responders. >> dear newtown police officer. >> i wanted to let them know they were appreciated and their job was self-less. >> reporter: this idea, 26 days of kindness, honors the 20 children and six adults who lost their lives in the 2012 mass shooting at sandy hook elementary school in newtown. manifested in acts big and

small, like donating food and blankets to the homeless, an annual proddition at notre dame these past three years. >> it reminds us that human goodness and human kindness is an everyday affair. >> reporter: for students here it couldn't make more sense. >> we're not just remembering something bad that happened. we're trying to counteract that bad with some good. >> reporter: they have rernd there's a world outside these walls, crowded with cruelty. remember that old thing about it's better to give than to receive? they still believe that here. harry smith, nbc news, fairfield, connecticut. >> touching story. mitt romney rumors, will smith for president, "valuabled politics" up next, stay tuned. , before earning 1% cash back everywhere, every time and 2% back at the grocery store, even before they got 3% back on gas, all with no hoops to jump through, daniel, vandi, and sarah decided to use

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time now for your monday edition of "scrambled politics." the slow boiling rivalry between donald trump and ted cruz took a new step this weekend. trump called cruz "a little bit of a maniac." the response from cruz a tweet calling trump his friend with a limping to the music have you had yo for the 1983 hit "maniac" from the movie "flashdance." i don't like the image of ted cruz in that sweatshirt. trump hitting the epa for water regulations which affect him in a very personal way. >> you go buy a new sink and you turn it on, well i want to wash my hands. you have showers, i can't wash my hair properly it's a disaster. >> he's resonating with the people. some of trump's recent comments may have a hollywood star run

for office soon. >> if people keep saying all the crazy kind of stuff they've been saying on the news, lately, about walls and muslims, they're going to force me into the political arena. >> what are you going to run for? >> i'm here, i got to be the president, you know? >> one person who is definitely not running so he says, mitt romney, once again squashing rumors of a convention floor comebag saying "please let me know who is doing that and i'll have a word with them. i'm not running." he loves it. we showed you willer ifril as george w. bush earlier but that wasn't the only political humor "snl" had to offer starting with senator ted cruz. >> i'm not afraid to take a stand on this. when i heard donald trump's comments on muslims, i said, wow. >> and we're talking wow like, that's crazy or wow, like that's a good idea? >> exactly.

>> this guy trump is a clown, okay, he's a total joke. the last thing anyone wants is some loud mouthed bully from the tri-state area who hurls insults at people like a fat-headed jabroni. >> you think we should hit isis head on? >> that's right, head on, which is always also the first rule of brain surgery, always leave the head on. >> that's your morning dish of "scrambled politics." joining me from washington, olivia nutzi, mr.itical correspond wept "the daily beast." thanks for being here, good morning. >> good morning. >> there's this new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, showing if there was this hypothetical election hillary clinton would actually beat trump but would lose to marco rubio and ben carson. what do you think this tells us about the surprising nature of this election? >> well, i think what it tells us is that primary voters don't necessarily want the same thing that general election voters want. general election voters do not want donald trump but a

significant faction of the primary electorate does seem to want donald trump. >> that is certainly true. we do have polls showing ted cruz surging in iowa however and that led trump to attack him for the first time. is there a little bit of a alliance over maybe? >> i think so. any time anyone starts to threaten trump in any way he gets worried. we saw this when chris christie started to surge a little bit in new hampshire when he was endorsed by "the union leader." donald trump who had shied away from attacking him was saying all sorts of negative things about him. we saw this when ben carson started to do well, donald trump was attacking him. when carly fiorina did well donald trump attacked her. it resulted in their poll numbers going down. he's trying to make the same thing happen with ted cruz. >> it's his m.o. and strangely it does work. tuesday night's presidential debate, speculation rand paul would be dropping out, he's

included on the main stage. chris christie is back in. what should we be expected to see tuesday night? >> historically in debates, donald trump does not do particularly well. his star is sort of dimmed when he's on the stage with all of the other candidates, and we can see maybe a little bit of a dip in his polls after the debate happens, but chris christie is very good in debates. he was great during the undercard debate he was in probably to his dismay last time, maybe he'll have a star turn this time around. rand paul has a lot to prove, his poll numbers are poor. there's speculation he'll be dropping out which no candidate wants to hear that. so i'm sure he'll be really trying to create a moment for himself. >> it should be an interesting debate. we'll be watching. olivia, thanks for breaking it down for us. >> thanks. just ahead, prince dropped a huge surprise for his fans over the weekend, find out. also, actor ed knorrton has become a hero for syrian refugees. we'll tell you all the details.

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leading the news in "usa today" secretary of state john kerry states climate deal will transform economy, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas the historic accord was widely celebrated yesterday. at xwreemt by 195 countries hopes to limit rising temperatures to less than 3.6 degrees fahrenheit through the year 2100. president obama declared the deal a "turning point" for the world. in "the daily mail," people experts at swearing have bigger vocabularies than clean tongued folks. published in language "sciences" journal participants were asked to say as many swear words they

could think of in 60 seconds and with animals. those with the most square words were most likely to name more animals as well. we should find a cure for cancer, this sounds like wasted research. ed knorrton changing the lives of one-u.s. hchbd bound refugee family, a syrian scientist who lost that i wife and daughter in a missile blast, norton partners with humans of new york to raise more than $380,000, the funds will aid the single father as he settles with his surviving children in the united states. congratulations to eva longoria, former "desperate housewives" star got engaged to businessman jose antonio baston. they got engaged in dubai, gave her a big diamond ruby ring. i'm sure this one will land. and rhonda rousy made good on a september promise to attend the marine corps ball after being invited on facebook, and on instagram.

she thanks lance corm jarrod haskrhert for being a gentleman. good for her to honor her word to an honorable marine. don't forget to like us on facebook at face bo facebook.congress/firstlook j msnbc. "way too early" starts right now. the field of republicans out there is so messed up i figured it makes you miss me, doesn't it? and that's saying a lot. i've already got my campaign song, "ready or not, here i come, you can't hide, i'm gone that find you and make you love me ♪ a little something from the fujis. >> will ferrell's george w. bush returns to "snl" for one sketch to mock the 201 presidential field. and call it a reshuffling of the

deck. the dynamic ted cruz seems to be taking in stride. 5:30 on the east code, 2:30 out west and this is "way too early." ♪ she's a maniac, maniac and she's dancing like she's never danced before ♪ ♪ she's a maniac, maniac on the floor ♪ ♪ and she's dancinging like she's never danced before ♪ >> good morning, it's mob december the 14th. i'm louis bergdorf. senator ted cruz leads donald trump 31% to 21% in the new "des moines register"/bloomberg politics poll. cruz surging 21 points since august into the lead. ben carson has collapsed 15 points to third place at 13%. marco rubio is at 10% and jeb bush is at 6%.