tonight. the casey dolan appropriately gets the last word tonight. chris matthews is next. he's going to have highlights and analyst of tonight's republican presidential debate live from las vegas. presidenti debate live from las vegas. last word. [ applause ] from commits to republican president, let's play "hardball." good evening, i'm chris matthews for the last debate of the year is just wrapping up. for too long i'd say ever since the build-up to the iraq war we've been waiting for a debate on war policy in the republican party. tonight, we got it. on one side, we heard the candidates that to want keep to the george w. bush policy of

regime change as a policy. of knocking off governments we don't like. jeb bush, marco rubio, carly fiorina, john kasich, chris christie. tonight they were among the strongest tonight in their unreconstructed talk taught. here's a look at some of tonight's hot talk on stage. >> you are an american citizen and you decide to join up with isis, we're not reading you rights, you're an enemy combatant. >> one of the things i would immediately do in addition to defeating them here at home is bring back the warrior class, mcchrystal, keane, flinn, every single one of these generals i know. >> let's be absolutely clear, isis and radical islamic terrorism will face no more determined foe than i will be. >> we have to go massively like the first gulf war where we destroyed the ability to take kuwait. we need to have a coalition that

will stand for nothing less than the total destruction. >> frankly, we punch the russia's in the nose. >> i will tell you this, i'm a former federal prosecutor, i fought terrorists in one, and when we get back in the white house, we will fight terrorists and win again, and america will be safe. >> that's the usual argument, quite hawkish. regime change as a policy. on the other side tonight, for the first time in recent shis ri, equal balance saying no way we're doing that again. donald trump. ted cruz. dr. ben carson, rand paul, all argued that we should not be in the business of regime change. and tonight, they were led, of course, by donald trump. >> is in my opinion, we've spent $4 trillion trying to topple various people that frankly, if they were there and if we could have spent that $4 trillion in the united states to fix our roads, our bridges, and all of the other problems, our

airports, and all of the other problems we had, we would have been a lot better off. i can tell you that right now. we have done a tremendous disservice, not only to the middle east, we've done a tremendous disservice to humanity, the people that have been killed, the people that have been wiped away, and for what? it's not like we had victory. it's a mess. the middle east is totely destabilized, a total and complete mess. i wish we had the $4 trillion or $5 trillion, i wish it was spent right here in the united states on our schools, hospitals, roads, airports, and everything else, that are all falling apart. >> you just heard the george w. bush policy of taking over iraq. we've been waiting years inside the republican party, and i believe tonight we got it. joining me here in las vegas, casey hunt, former rnc chair mike ka still low, and the huffington post, howard, howard,

talk about this. i was stunned because back in 2004, 12 years ago, one little voice out thereto, ron paul, tried to question the iraq policy of george w. bush and got blown away by rudy giuliani, but blew away that thought. tonight, it was a rel debate. >> you're right, chris, i thought in a way it was, i would almost go as far to say it was historic in terms of the way the republican party seems to view itself. don't forget, donald trump isn't just any candidate, he's the national front runner. and i think that ben carson, ted cruz, and rand paul, son of ron paul, are all on that side of the argument, and if you put their numbers together, they form by far the majority of the support in the race so far in iowa, in nationally, i think it's utterly fascinating, and if donald trump is as good as salesman as he's prove to be so far, if he has as good a sense

of the marketplace as he seems to have. the fact that be he's all in on saying we shouldn't have taken out saddam hussein, we shouldn't have taken out muammar gaddafi, we shouldn't have let mubarak lose power in cairo, if he's saying in a sense leave assad where he is, if he's doing all of those things, that is a significant shift in the history of the modern republican party in a defwhat goes back among republicans, all the way to eisenhower and taft in the 1950s. ronald reagan settled that argument, we thought, for engagement in the world, including military interventions. although ronald reagan himself was quite careful. he talked, he talked a lot, he was strong in his anti-communism but he was careful in his use of military power to affect regime change. i think that's what these people are groping toward. and if they get there, they're going to dominate the republican party. they already are.

>> mike, there was a right to right fight. we have a lot of clips to show, but one of the clips was when somebody said, we'll have a no-fly zone, christie, then wolf blitzer, the moderator said what do you do if there's a russian plane in syria, shoot it down. reagan had plenty of opportunities to do that kind of thing. we're not going to go to world war iii. >> hell of a debate. >> i thought it was a powerful exchange with rand paul clarifying, so if you want to go to world war iii, then this is your candidate, pointed at chris christie. he tried to make it clear that this is a very important line of demarcation within the gop. >> right. >> whether you're talking about the hawkish approach or you're talking about something that does go back to reagan in a 1950s cold war mentality which is an on the ground assessment of your opponent before you act. >> like we didn't go into china in 1954 --

>> right. exactly. what our goals were. >> let's watch that fight. get everybody back in here, casey and steve, let's listen to chris christie sounding like he was itching for a war with russia. and rand paul going at him. >> would you be prepared to shoot down that russian plane and risk war with russia? >> not only are we prepared to do it, i would do it. a no-fly zone means a no-fly zone. and yes, we would shoot down the planes of russian pilots if they were stupid enough to think that the this president is the same feckless president as right now. >> we want in a leader someone with judgment, not someone who is so reckless as to stand on the stage and say, yes, i'm jumping up and down, i'm going to shoot down russian planes. i think when we think about the judgment of someone who might want world war iii. we might think about someone who might shut down a bridge because they don't like their friends. they want top get a democrat. >> let me get, steve on this, steve, this debate, i've been

waiting for it, we got it. >> look, judgment and restraint are important hallmarks in a commander and chief. and through the entire history of the cold war, american foreign policy was built in a communication network with the soviets to avoid misunderstandings, to avoid accidents, to avoid something that could presip date the launching of nuclear missiles. and when you talk about shooting down a russian plane, tough talk in a debate, it's not serious talk. that was a mistake by chris christie who otherwise had a good debate. unthinkable for an american presidential candidate to bluster about shooting down the aircraft of a nuclear power like russia. and one of the things that we should learn from the barack obama presidency, is you don't draw redlines that you're not prepared to enforce. meaningless threats are just that, meaningless. and that was a meaningless threat. it's not reality-based. and this debate we saw tonight,

i don't think the fallline, chris, is between ron paul, i think it's between the reagan foreign policy and the george w. bush foreign policy. between a realist foreign policy and a neoforeign policy, and what you heard ted cruz making a very sophisticated argument about tonight was the primary focus of america's national security interests, it's stability. and sometimes that stability comes with our dealing with and recognizing the legitimacy of very unsavory regimes. that the spread of democracy often leads to chaos, and what makes a democracy is not an election in that part of the world, it's the rule of law. and a lot of these elections in these countries lead to regimes that have an imposition of shah ri ala. a rule of through a protects minority rights from ma jortarianism.

we seem not to have enough politicians in the republican party that understand that. >> we to want welcome. everyone who's been watching the debate, right now joined by mike huckabee. he took part in the earlier debate tonight. let's watch a bit of that. >> are you ready to reassure republicans tonight that you will run as a republican and abide by the decision of the republicans? >> i really am. i'll be honest. i really am. i am totally committed to the republican party. i feel very party to be the front runner. [ applause ] and i think i'll do well if i'm chose fn i'm so fortune to be chosen. i think i'll do well, polls said i will beat hillary, i will do everything in my power to beat hillary clinton. >> i hate to ask you about -- >> but you're going to anyways. >> ten minutes ago, he made news. no third party candidate. >> well look, you know, it was a big deal to get donald trump to

commit that he would support the republican party in the nominee. in other words, he was basically demanded to pledge his loyalty to the party, but chris, it goes both ways. the party has to pledge their loyalty to donald trump if he's the nominee. . works like that. >> are you ready? >> if he's the nominee, yes. >> will you pony up? >> another former governor of your party said he wouldn't back him if he's nominee. >> i made that commitment when i decided to run for president. the republican party spent millions of dollars to build an infrastructure for us to run. and if we want to receive the benefits of being a part of the party, then we have to accept that there are some responsibilities that go with it. michael was the party chairman -- >> you're an honorable man, offcamera, you're not like him who goes over and says he's a little, you know what i mean. you don't think that? >> yesterday, today, and forever. and so, it's just a matter of honor and integrity.

either we keep our word, or we don't. >> the debate i'm focussed on, since i'm the moderator, i'm allowed to focus on what i'm focussing. wolf did a great job of shutting down cruz when he ignored the rules. back in iraq, it was a popular thing, popular, we went to war and became unpopular. there was a real debate within your party. tonight, ron paul was an outlier, he was an isolationist, and he was shouted down when he tried to close the iraq policy, tonight, i counted, four candidates went on that stage tonight, donald trump, ted cruz, ben carson, and rand paul, all four said we're willing to get into regime change. and we're wrong to do it again in syria. the other five guys, said no, let's keep it up, we have to knock off assad. where are you? the five or the four? >> in the early debate -- >> you weren't with either the

five or the four. the big debate. where are you in concept? >> i don't think assad is our immediate concern. our concern are the terrorists coming to kill americans. the people who are kidnapping and murdering americans and christians in the middle east. do i want assad to stay in power? no, is that my high priority? no, it isn't. that's not the fundamental job of the american president is to protect somebody else's citizens, it's to protect ours. ours are getting shot, bombed, ours are being blown up at the boston marathon finish line, and that's what we've got to stop. >> and our christians over there too, you just mentioned. >> absolutely. our christians -- >> tlair being beheaded. >> i'm with you on that. it's interesting to single them out. we only care about the christians over there. >> all, but the christians are specifically targeted. they're being hunted down, and beheaded in larger numbers. there are also muslims being killed. anyone who doesn't bow down to this radical forum of jihad, their targets for murder.

>> what's happened to your party? you've run a number of times in iowa, iowa's an interesting place. it's a very interesting place. steve king, people like that there, anyway, tonight, we're looking at numbers in your party that show trump over 40, jeb bush, the heir to the throne, if you will, at 3. what happened? >> well look db. >> you're in there somewhere, but 3 for the jeb. >> it's almost like this year, the experience you had will be used against you. on the stage where i was on, there were four of us, combined, we had more government experience and actually -- >> that's my question. >> we many h more than the nine people on the second stage. you had trump with no government experience fighting with two young congressmen who have five years between them. where's the experience? >> we have to start reminding people that you would never put your grandkids on an airplane pilot bade volunteer who had never been in a cockpit. the presidency is not an entry

level job. it's not a time to say, hey, maybe he'll be up to it. let's see if he can pull the throttle back and get this off the ground. chris -- >> why do people think like that? >> they're mad and they don't trust government. anybody who has been in government, they lump us all together. >> it's a wrap sheet. >> i've never been in washington. >> you and kasich, but never to washington. >> he has, i haven't, but i have governed. in a state that was 90% democrat. i know thousand work with people, get things done. right now, we haven't convinced people that that matters -- >> small point. mr. republican governor, as a guy who's lived in the district and surrounding far long time, the people in the district of columbia didn't elect all those people in washington. they're all sent to washington by the 50 states. so do you understand, there's a mess in washington, its been sent there by the elected states like arkansas. >> once they get there, they never leave. it's the roach motel, they go

in, but they never come out. you know that. >> i'm one of the roaches. tonight, it's also an epic battle between jeb bush and donald trump. things got a little heated here, let's watch. >> donald, you know, is great at the one-liners. but he's a chaos candidate. and he'd be a chaos president. >> jeb doesn't really believe i'm unhinged, he said that very simply because he has failed in this campaign. it's been a total disaster. nobody cares. >> donald, you're not going to be able to insult your way to the presidency, that's not going to happen. and i do have the strength. >> i thought it was very unfair that virtually the entire early portion of the debate was trump this, trump that, in order to get ratings. >> mr. trump, it's not cnn, i was on cnn last night -- >> excuse me, i think it's very unprofessional. >> it was me, i watched you last night for 60 minutes, it's not

cnn. it's not cnn. it's america's watching you. >> okay, fine, it's americans watching you. >> i was mentioned, so i can bring up something, i think, right? the simple fact is, if you think this is tough -- >> this isn't tough -- >> imagine what it's like dealing with putin or president chi or the islamic terrorism that exists. this is a tough business to run for president. >> you're a tough guy, jeb. >> and wet need to have a leader that is. >> reporter: real tough. >> you're never going to be president of the united states by insulting -- >> i'm at 42, you're at 3. so far, i'm doing better. so far i'm doing better. you know, you started off over here, jeb, you're moving over further and further, pretty soon, you're going to be off the end. >> okay. you know, that wasn't very grown up, but it's clearly a case, casey, you've got rand paul, one point, there's jeb bush, clearly giving words to use tonight. we call it software, i don't think it made a difference, take over. >> chris, i'm standing here with

senator rand paul who you've been talking quite a bit about and taking a different stand and senator, i'm wondering, where do you think the voters are on this question of where the republican party should be in standing alone? >> thank you, thank you. >> you took a different stand from candidates like chris christie. >> well, i think to be successful, to be a strong country you can't do it from bankruptcy court. we can't keep spending ourselves into oblivion, war is expensive and we have decide, are we always going to responsible for deciding all the leaders in the middle east? and that has worked or helped us? when we toppled gaddafi, did it make the world safer? no, more chaotic and allowed us to have a failed state in libya. now there are a nest of terrorism. i think we did have a good debate. and it's an important debate. i think the first time you're really seeing a real demarcation and separation within the republican party over what is the appropriate invest for policy. i'm hoping this leaks a little bit into the democrat debate,

but frankly, hillary clinton is a big supporter of regime change. she and marco rubio are actually very similar. and so it'd be interesting to get her into the mix and for people to ask her, is regime change a good idea. these were good republican questions, we'd like to see some of them in the democrat debate too. >> do you think marco rubio has the same foreign policy as hillary clinton? >> almost identical. i think they're both neoconservatives in the sense they both believe in regime change, they both believe in a no-fly zone. they both believe in confronting russia. you heard chris christie, my goodness, world war iii's around the corner if we get chris christie. he's ready now to shoot down russia jets. we went 70 years in the cold war trying not to have a confrontation. what we want is a commander in chief is someone who's saying rational and not reckless. >> there you have it, chris, calling marco rubio and hillary clinton neoconservatives. >> that is great. you got a great byte from him, he's saying basically that the

ideological line there is no longer between republicans and democrats, it's got hillary and rubio on the same side against him, trump, carson, and those are the ones that are the hesitant ones. no one engages in knocking off governments anymore. >> right. and you know, very interesting, rand paul and ted cruz coming down on the same side of this against rubio in particular, chris. >> yeah, i thought it was a great debate in that sense. thanks -- keep it up. you're somewhere in the room, i know you are. in fact, i think you're behind me somewhere. thanks for being with us -- >> i'll find you somewhere. >> i want to go to mike, your party's got a rel debate tonight. >> i love it. >> crazy high school stuff, but in the middle was a balanced debate between those who say have been on the right course of knocking you have governments, libya, we knocked off iraq, we helped bring down mubarak, we've been trying to do something with syria. >> yeah. >> gaddafi, and we just seem to

knock off these jokes and these dictators and getting worse. we always get somebody worse. >> and the idea is that we go in and on the premise of regime change, no one asks the question, so when you change the regime, what are you left with? what is the stabilizing fact? you see right now, and this has been going on, it goes back, i got into trouble when i was chairman making this point. other republicans have been drowned out as you mentioned before, ron paul, now it's got a space and a voice in the party and the presidential debate. i think overall, it's a healthy space for the party to be in for the country to come to grips and terms. i think before they decide, stand closer to where the people of the country are as well as the large number -- >> does rubio know he's sputting the old war right now? >> that's how -- >> money people like it. >> money people like it, i think the cruz, rubio dynamic it the central dynamic debate. >> it's a debate. >> real debate.

rubio trying to cast cruz as more rand paul -- >> i think he wants to be there. i don't think he's resisting it, i think cruz is trying to balance. he wants to be between rand paul, ron paul, and john mccain. he wants to be so and he's not totally for intervention in the way the old hawks are. >> steve, figure this out, you have to consult these guys, is there a middle position between the party of george w. bush and the party of what was a couple months ago, couple years ago, the rand paul, ron paul party. >> you know, chris, i don't think the ron paul analogy is the right now. ron paul is a legitimate isolationist in the tradition of taft, he was repudiated by rudy giuliani because he blamed the 9/11 attacks on the american foreign policy, not the foreign jihadis. ronald reagan was not a military adventurer. in the president of that

generation who lived through world war ii, these were presidents who argued for restraint in the practice of american foreign policy generally we didn't want to have a direct conversation. we wanted to limit nuclear weapons. we wanted to be very circumspect about the eyes of force. we go back to the powell doctrine. we have a strategy about how we send the american army to war. we have the support of the population. we have a clear plan for victory. we use overwhelming force. we have an exit strategy. what all of this debate is about tonight is time and time again, whether it's hillary clinton and president obama in libya or iraq, we topple these regimes with no idea, no plan for what comes next. and ted cruz is on the right side of this debate, in terms of public opinion. >> what ted, chris, what ted cruz is trying to do and robert eluded to it, is that on the one hand he's say nothing, we don't

want regime change. and i think that he and donald trump and ben carson and rand paul, all are in agreement on that. and the fact that the dominant players in the race are saying that is a great significance. but what ted cruz is trying to do that ronald reagan didn't do is talk with a blustery, texas swagger about what he's going to do militarily to isis, at least from the air. and so, he's trying to blend that caution, that caution, that steve is talking about with a bluster about isis that will satisfy and try to calm the fears of the american people. and he's very shrewd about how he's approached it, but i think donald trump, donald trump is trying to stand the stride both of these things on regime change and immigration and so far, he's still remaining somebody that those other two people have to get passed. meaning cruz and rubio, and they

didn't necessary deploy it tonight. >> can i just add though, you know, to howard's point, one of the stories, it's a big story in conservative media in this country, are the rules of engagement concerning the air strikes that are under way against the islamic state and the bombing of raqqah. enormous number of air missions return with their ordinance under the wing of the plane because the target list is not approved at a political level, not so different than the vietnam war. and so when ted cruz is doing that, he's signaling to a republican audience, listening to conservative media, that he will kill the fighters of the islamic state. but that is proportional, that is not talking about wholesale regime change or culture change in these countries. >> although i don't know that ronald reagan would ever say he wanted to make the sand glow. >> in a tempered statement. in a tempered statement. in commander and chief for sure. >> impressed with the debate.

one of you guys, reporters, maybe you, michael, that suggested the real debate was going to be between cruz and rubio. and i didn't think it was going to be on foreign pools, but it was. and clearly cruz drawing this line, a reaganite restraint, but macho. it's an interesting mix, i thought. not being the adventurist going into countries and changing their cultures the mess we've been in. thank you, michael. my friend, robert, michael, robert, steve schmitt, good guy. and howard are all sticking with me. >> coming up much more on tonight's main debate and more from the candidates. they're all coming here. and this is "hardball." we have to talk about trump saying he's not going third party. that's a big development, i think. and i think it's because he's the front runner and thinks he's got it maybe, we'll be right back. >> if i'm elected president, we will secure the border.

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if you elect me president, we will have a president that believes america's the greatest country in the world, and we will have a president that acts like it. >> we're back to las vegas, site of the last republican presidential debate of the year. again and again tonight, senators marco rubio and ted cruz clashed over starkly different world views, rubio accused cruz of talking tough on isis, but not backing it up with action, here we go. >> also supported by the way a budget that is called the containment budget. and it is a budget that would radically reduce the amount of money on our military. you can't carpet bomb isis if you don't have planes and bombs to bomb them with. >> isis will face no more

determined foe than i will be. we will utterly destroy them by targeting the bad guys and one of the problems with marco's thought foreign policy, he's far too often supported hillary clinton and barack obama, undermining governments in the middle east that have helped radical islamic terrorists. we need to focus on the bad guys and not meern civil wars. >> hillary clinton and barack obama's strategy is to lead from behind. what he's outlining is not to lead at all. we cannot continue to outsource foreign policy, we must lead. we are the most powerful nation in the world, we need to begin to act like it again. >> wow. rand paul joins us now, senator, thank you. when you get in these debates with rubio, it must be easy, just talk to a neocon. he wants to knock off like a iraq and libya, go back and do it more with syria and knock off more. >> the interesting thing is i thought we had a substantive debate of regime change. and this is something -- >> your father would have liked

this. it happened back then. >> this is something that actually unites marco rubio and hillary clinton because they both believe in regime change, they both supported the regime change in libya, supported it in syria, but i've been arguing the opposite. they were less safe when we toppled these regimes. if we were to topple asad in 2013 when marco rubio, obama, hillary clinton, all the neocons wanted to, isis would be in charge of all of syria now. it's a wonderful debate to have because maybe we're going to finally learn from history, the history of the middle east is, regime change hasn't helped us to become more safe. >> but i can't understand, if you really care, some neocons say they're -- ready to go? let's go. casey's got donald trump. >> no, it's not that. he has to go out and do his thing. he's a 3 and poll just came out, i'm 42. so i think i do the exact same thing. i thought it was a little unfair that cnn was leading him along,

the last question where they led him along, mr. trump said, but, i really enjoyed this evening. i think jeb tried very hard. he's having a hard time, let's face it. >> senator cruz didn't follow through with any attacks on you tonight, and you seemed to back off some of your earlier criticism -- >> i get along great with him. he's been backing me all along, he's been the one person that backed me with virtually everything, and we have a very good relationship. and i was very happy to see that he backed off his statement that he made, you know, in the closed doors. i respect him for it. after i lot of respect for him, he's a good guy. >> you called hall of fame nan yak. you're not going to do that again? >> time goes by. >> there you go, chris, mr. trump, again for you, not repeating his criticism of ted cruz has a maniac as you saw cruz not willing to go after trump in tonight's debate, even though we anticipated that clash. so we're going to have to wait and see if there's going to be more to this storyline, if we are going to hear more about whether cruz has criticized

trump more aggressively in public as some people are privately saying has happened. >> thanks, casey hunt who was with donald trump, of course. what do you make of this politics where cruz makes snide comments about trump in a fu fundraising group, then says i'm not repeating that in public. >> the most important exchange was when i made sure that voters knew that in order to close the internet, you would have to get rid of something, this little troublesome thing called the first amendment to the constitution. and so people need to realize how outlandish the things that he is saying, what they would amount to. when he says oh we're going to kill the families of terrorists. he's talking about just i don't know, there are four-year-old kids or something. that would go against the geneva convention and against most american's sensibilities to kill women and children. and people need to understand that. donald trump's what he's proposing -- >> why do you think three out of five republicans say they like his proposal, at least a

temporary ban on muslims coming into this country? your party likes that idea. >> i don't think they've yet heard everything he has to say or considered the implications. that's why i brought it up again. he said, i just to want close that internet thing. but to do that, you'd realize that it would contravene the first amendment, no more speech on the internet. and i think that people have to realize that his propositions are even more outlandish than you can imagine. >> literally like the old testament. you believe that take them literally what he says? or they like his -- say i'm going to do something about immigration. i say i'll build a wall, but i'll get serious about enforcing the law. >> people aren't really listening, but as the election gets closer -- >> come on, i get his point, but he's not going to go that far. >> perhaps, but i think that's a big part of debate now, his opponents, myself, what he's talking about is outlandish, getting rid of the first amendment of the constitution, a

pretty big deal. >> governor huckabee here a moment ago, and former governor huckabee said that one of the requirements is to be resip ri call and to back in that he's the nominee. he says he will run as a republican. he will not run third party, does that mean you guys should support him if -- would you? >> i pledge to support the nominee. even trump? >> i pledge to support the nominee, but i can tell you that it won't be with a great deal of enthusiasm. i can tell you that i'm concerned that he would be the nominee. i think he would be wiped out in a landslide. i don't want him to be the nominee. i will do everything in my power to keep him from being the nominee, by pointing out the things that he's for really aren't good for america. >> question to senator rand paul. >> well, senator paul, i wanted to know -- >> relay to me, i don't have a -- >> why where you go next in trying to make that case. in as the biggest imperative in this race, to explain the donald

trump to the american people in the way you think it's urgent that he be explained. and how does that take place? is that the number one priority -- >> great question. howard had a great question, how do you interpret and get people to think about what trump, the consequences of what sounds right from trump? >> i think by putting them out there. and you have to characterize them and recharacterize them and make people think, they might as first say yeah, we don't want terrorists on the internet, but what is the implication of that, shutting down the internet, the implication is, we will no longer allow speech on the internet, you can't shut down certain parts of speech and part of the first amendment frankly for those of us who live in the country, is that sometimes we will have objectionalable things you have to hear. >> thank you for coming over. casey, this time it's dr. ben carson. >> chris, nice to see you, we're standing here with dr. ben carson who's currently talking

about his potential trip to rall israel, let's take a listen. >> not only to monitor it, but put out alternative messages and use cyber warfare. we need to work with their servers anding they those down. we also need to be working with the imams, they need to work with us to help identify radicals and radicalized elements because if they can't identify them, how are we supposed to identify them? and if we can't identify them, that's going to affect our policies. so it will work out, you know, much better if they will join our efforts than if they sit on the sidelines and do nothing. >> dr. carson, can i just jump in for a second, we're live with chris matthews, you worked hard to tie your biography into your national security experience tonight, do you feel like you've succeeded. you've fallen as the race turns

towards terrorism. >> i don't know that i spent a lot of time on my biography -- i'm not sure the premise of the question is correct, but i am very pleased with what happened tonight. because you know, there's a false narrative out there that he can't possibly know anything about foreign policy, and i think i demonstrated that i do. i could demonstrate it to a bigger degree. >> you talked about how you don't they people have to be rude to be heard in this presidential race. do you think that donald trump is being rude? do you think that he's somebody that's saying, iowa voters who often, we would say they might be iowa nice will go for it? >> you probably notice i don't spend a lot of time talking about other people. i'm not going to start now. >> thank you for your time, we appreciate it. chris, back to you. >> thank you, casey. i've got governor john kasich. you know tonight's debate was a number of lines. one of them was we need people with experience and executive decision-making.

you, governor christie, i'm not sure who else has executive experience, trump in his own business world as a billionaire, but then you look at the fight, it seems to be right now between two freshman senators, saying that they're better than trump. and they don't have anymore experience than he has. and it really sl an interesting battle. these two guys right behind him in the polls -- >> remember though, chris -- >> chris and rubio don't have any experience in executive government. >> look, the polls. >> where's your party at -- >> 53 or 54 days, you're going see new hampshire, and then we're going to know. we're going to see iowa before that, then we're going to see new hampshire and we're going to see who emerges. i was really happy with what happened tonight. i was given time, i was able to talk in depth about isis, in depth about what we need to do with assad. i was able to talk about encryption, able to talk, even a little bit about the economy. and i was very pleased with tonight. >> you like the fact that it was a redebate between four

candidates against five on war policy? a real break who doesn't believe in regime change? >> chris, these things are complicated -- >> start tonight. you were on the side with christie and with george w. bush -- >> but wait a minute. >> and fiorina. >> i'm for regime change in syria, but i never would have been for regime change in iraq if saddam did not have weapons of mass destruction. >> really? >> no. >> but you were at the time. >> i thought he had weapons of mass destruction -- >> so you're for knocking off governments that have weapons of mass destruction. for any government of weapons of mass destruction. >> in that case where we thought he was a threat to us. i thought he was going to be a threat to us. >> how, somehow iraq going -- >> the whole world with saddam. proliferation. >> who thought iraq was going attack the united states? it never had. >> chris, when he had weapons of mass destruction, even colin powell, one of the most

respected national security generals -- >> he saluted his boss. >> after i history of this, we went to war in lebanon -- >> one much his great regrets is the deal. >> if we hadn't known there were weapons of mass destruction, there's no way i thought we should have gone. i had a vote in lebanon, and president reagan wanted to have the troops in lebanon, and i was one of 14 republicans to say no, and your old boss supported it at the time. i didn't support it. i'm not -- i don't believe we should get in the middle of civil wars. syria, i don't think our troops should be there to remove assad. that's why we should support these people who want top remove him. why do i want to remove him? iran, russia, assad. that's sophisticated. >> i think it's neocon. >> no, look, i don't think it is. >> adventurism. it's us getting involved in areas we don't belong in. what do we gain out of knocking out iraq and libya? going after syria, nothing off, helped to -- >> do you know what we'll gain if we knock off save sad?

you know who his big funders are, it's iran, iran wants to own syria. who else expect russians who are also aligned with iran. having the rebels take assad out will be a good thing for the world, and saudis are willing to get in the middle. how about the saudis coming out today and saying they've got a coalition of 35 or 40 people to go destroy isis? that's pretty impressive. >> we'll see. >> but we have to lead. >> i know. i think we made a mistake of going into these countries, but thank you. you're in a different position. and you expressed it tonight rather well, including right here. thank you governor john kasich who remembers tipton o'neil. when we come back, donald trump, you're watching "hardball." live from las vegas, republican presidential debate, the last one of the year.

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it's what you do. if you want to save fifteen percent or more on car insurance, you switch to geico. ♪ you make me feel so young... it's what you do. ♪ you make me feel ♪ so spring has sprung. we're back from las vegas, and robert, the washington post is joining us right now, i want to go to robert, you're in the business of running main news stories. what's the main bar story tonight? >> trump was calm. trying to protect his front runner status. cruz and rubio defining the party when it m dos to policy battles. >> what about the decision by trump to lay on the line and say i'm going as a republican, i'm a republican candidate, there's no third party option for me? >> he underscored it, he sees the nomination in sight, he's signaling, i'm with you. he was not as pugnacious as usual. had exchanges with bush and others, but was steady.

>> that was a statement that his lead is solid? >> i think he thinks his national lead is solid. iowa and new hampshire, he's not going to fold. >> how will this translate and crosswalk to a better show in iowa? >> i think he showed a steadiness on foreign policy. he didn't become full of insults tonight, and the iowa voters, they care about temperament -- >> they do, don't they? they don't like nastiness. >> new hampshire, they like the fight and antiimmigration reform rhetoric. they like the hardline, words and insults. in iowa, it's an evangelical crowd. >> they drive past a car accident and don't look. >> they stop. >> i think they do look, but they like to say they don't. >> right. >> let me ask you about the republican party, what i'm stunned sbi a couple things, three out of five republicans, when you polled them, they like the tough, perhaps unconstitutional position of saying no more people of the islamic faith allowed in the

country far while. they know it's illegal. >> you have bush trying to call trump out on this front, but whether it gets him any traction, who knows? they're trying to play truth teller to trump. whether that's a path dominated by trump, with trump on the issue. >> you know the question i was trying to get to with rand paul. and i said, really people like biblical scholars take trump at his word. really take everything there's going to be a wall or really hear from him, at least this guy's going stop illegal immigration? is that what they hear? that's what i hear, what do you think the people hear? >> they like that he projects strength. that's what they're looking for, a wall, someone who's going to come through, anti-politician. not the enthusiastic rhetoric or the proposal, that's what he projects. >> what happened the last two or three weeks from 25 to almost 40, over 40? was it paris? i think it was paris, what do you think? >> it's not just paris,

everyone's trying to capitalize on paris so to say they're the leader, the hawk, he's different, he's different. he's a contrarian voice when it comes to his proposal for muslims in immigration. party leaders think it's going to cost him, but in a primary, test helping trump. >> let's look at jeb on trump. trying to get back to the fight. i think he looked very coached tonight. everything he said was prepared, . >> and he gets his foreign policy experience from the shows. >> come on -- >> that is not a serious kind of candidate. we need someone that thinks this through, that can lead our country to safety and security. >> let me go back to howard, both of you guys, when he lectures him like that, i don't know, it's not for his benefit.

who is he lecturing for our benefit? school wormy about it to me. i don't know. >> yes, although, i thought toward the end there, as the debate wound down, and trump was waiting to get off the stage without pulling his stack and robert's right, he kept his cool. some of them were funny. i don't know that it's going to help jeb bush at all. and it's certainly not going to slow down donald trump. so in the end, it was kind of a sad side show, and kind of cota to trump's continuing on on his march. and jeb not really -- not really

being able to gain any kind of traction. i wanted to mention one other thing about trump and his demeanor that robert was talking about. it's not just the demeanor many io iowa the other thing they like in iowa is iowa is not a military state. there isn't a single big military installation in iowa. even among republicans, it's a very popular thing to say, no regime change, let's be careful about what we're going to do. and that's one reason why cruz has done well and one reason why donald trump still has a fighting chance in that state. >> let me go to steve. steve, you've counselled or consulted with candidates a lot. i just think that -- let's put it this way. jeb bush is not a one liner guy. when kwlou give him these one liner, they just don't seem to fit him. he's diffident, he's professorial. they don't look like him.

every time he does this, trump says you're only say this to win. no doubt he was. >> bush has gone from center of the stage to the edge of the stage. he's out of room to maneuver. he's at 3%. it's at the middle of the december. increasingly, as you look at some of the candidates on the debate stage tonight, it's not just jeb bush. it's jb bush, carly fiorina, rand paul, very, very difficult to articulate what their path is to a comeback to the nomination, to an early stay win. so he's got to say something. he's got to show some fight. clearly the way you show fight, you show strength is by going after the toughest guy in the room. but i think for jeb bush it's late in the game and the days are getting short. >> it's late in the game. you know, for example, these are little cosmetic things. i wear glasses when i read and i wear them in the movies. there's nothing wrong with wearing glasses. but here's a guy who never

seemed to be in public in glasses and all of a sudden he's showing up with these professorial glasses. wire rimmed glasses. there's something intellectual and tired about -- diffident is a good word. >> chris, he doesn't even look like george w. bush. he doesn't look like george h.w. bush. he sort of looks like prescott bush. he's like burrowing back into the -- he's burrowing back into the connecticut yankee history of the family. for something to grap on to in terms of his identity. and look, the whole thing has been misbegotten from the beginning. knowing and covering jeb, i never thought his heart was in it, even if he had $100 million in his bank account. i don't think he was ever really gaited for this, especially in the atmosphere we're in right now. it's just -- it just -- it just

has been all wrong fra the very beginning. and, you know, i think he could take a little satisfaction that he got under donald trump's skin a little bit tonight. but that's the most pyric of victories. who cares at this point. >> you had the "saturday night live" sketch this week. of course, with president bush reentering the race, you know, the brilliant will ferrell. but you also had the skit of jeb bush to the sound of the sarah mclaughlin song, the humane society setup. you know, donate to help bush. it's just like he's got ton a place in the race, it's real tough to dig out of, for sure. >> chris christie took time out to contrast his rivals from the senate. take a look at this. >> i want to talk to the audience at home for a second. if your eyes are glazing over like mine, this is what it's like to be on the floor of the united states senate.

i mean, endless debates about how many angels on the head of a pen from people who never had to make a consequential decision in an executive position. for seven years, i had to make these decisions after 9/11. yet they continue to debate about this bill and the subcommittee. nobody cares about that. what they care about is are we going to have a president who knows what they're doing to make these decisions. this is the difference between having been a federal prosecutor and actually doing something and spending your life as one of 100 debating it. let's talk about how we do this. not about which bill these guys like more. people don't care about that. >> could it be, guys, the reason he keeps talking about his history as a federal prosecutor, not as a governor because the one executive decision we all imagine he made was stop the traffic on the bridge and screw the mayor from ft. lee, because otherwise he wasn't in charge. steve, you handle this hot one. he's bragging about his executive about, his control of events. how he has to make the tough calls. and there's one thing we've been

dealing now and the trials are yet to come. did he or did he not exercise kpeg tif control over the people in his immediate governor's office or didn't he? why is he bringing that up? >> republican voters care less about the bridge than even democratic voters care about hillary clinton's e-mails. it's not an issue in the republican primary. you know, one thing about chris christie you should understand is that the endorsement of the union leader in new hampshire, the fact that marco rubio is not particularly present in the state, you look at where kasich is -- i thought kasich had another middle to not too great debate performance out on the stage. chris christie has got some growth in new hampshire yet to come. i think he's going to collapse kasich's numbers. he's going to take a point or two out of fiorina. chris christie has a path to win this new hampshire primary. and if chris christie wins this new hampshire primary, he gets to go forward. me's a formidable politician, he's a gifted communicator. we're at the stanl of the race

now, you have to win somewhere early. you can't get deep into this without winning anywhere. and candidates that can't point with a realistic scenario where they're going to win early, you know, in the first couple of states and then out to south carolina, nevada and beyond, they're not long for this race. and chris christie is not one of those candidates. >> thank you so much. we're coming back for another hour. we think we had donald trump working his way over here. also a vegas odds maker is going to tell us who's got the inside track now to win this nomination. i love the betting stuff because that's where the money is. our coverage continues after this.

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ideas exxonmobil scientists are working on to make energy go further... ...no matter how many tries it takes. energy lives here. >> donald trump is about 40% right now if you average it out. maybe 42 by his count. jeb bush who was supposed to be number one is at 3%. what happened? >> he was a little aggressive tonight. i think he i would probably be doing the same thing if i were him. he's a good man. >> you're acting like a winner tonight. you said you would run as a republican. no third party option.

you talked about that. if they don't treat you fairly in the republican party, you were going to pull. >> basically if you look, i'm number one by a lot. 27 points. what am i going to do? leave and run as an independent? i think they're all going to come together, coalesce and we're going to do very well. i've had some terrific poll against hillary. you know, fox came out where we beat her by five points. and i think we're going to -- >> those polls are crazy. one poll shows carson beating her. do you believe that? >> ewe never know. he's a quality guy. we were talking to him before. he's a very high quality guy. >> as a good republican now, would you endorse and support whoever wins on your party's side? >> yeah, i would. >> with enthusiasm? >> with enthusiasm. i've gotten to know most of them pretty well. i like a lot of them. i can't say i love everybody, but i like a lot of them. and i respect quite a few of them. >> let's talk about something that grabbed me.

hello, melani, thank you for standing here and letting us have you hear. you said that if we hadn't gone into these wars -- and a lot of people who what watch this show agree with me. i don't buy the theory of wmd. they skocooked up the term wmd. they didn't care what it was to get into war. knocking off libya, knocking off gadhafi, mubarak. you said we could have spent $3 trillion to build this country up. >> i don't even think they have any idea how much it is. >> how do we go forward and find that money again to rebuild the koun sfli. >> we're going to have to do it. we're going to have to zabl stabilize the middle east. we knew each other many years ago. and i have a lot of respect for you. the fact is if you look at what we did in iraq, we just totally

dezabl stai destabilize the middle east. i've been against it since 2003, 2004. >> four guys tonight, carson, you, cruz and paul. you had a pretty good fight going with the neo-con crowd led by cruz. >> what did we get out of it? >> rubio is the other side. it was a good fight. >> $4 trillion, we have a country that's falling apart, our infrastructure, our roads, our highways, our schools, our hospitals, our airports are falling apart. i go to some of these countries they have airports the likes of which we never see. >> i know. i took the plane with my son two weeks ago. you can go on a train in zurich and you put the diet coke on the armchair and it sits there for the whole trip. try that on amtrak. are we going to rebuild our rail system. >> we're going to spend trillions of dollars doing all of this stuff. look, the question is, would we have been better off if gadhafi was there. the answer is what did we get out of it? we got nothing out of it. i tell you what we got out of it. we got death out of it.

look at all the people on both sides. >> i've got another question for you. >> go ahead. >> you have great numbers nationally. you have 40 in this poll abc just came out. 38, 40, it adds up to 40. but you're not doing it in iowa. >> just came out, i'm leading in iowa. in cnn, i was up by 13. nobody ever reported it. >> i saw the book you put out aechb i read it through. it was all very phallic, by the way, all the big buildings you put up. i said why doesn't this guy run a tv campaign like that in iowa. say you the builder against this guy, the debater. you want a debater or a builder. you want a 6'3" builder or a 5'8" debater? i would play tougher than you. why don't you talk about building? why don't you build? >> i happen to be watching. what a great idea. we are going to do it. why don't you take, even for a couple of seconds each, i build so much between everything i build.

>> what has cruz ever built? >> he's been so nice to me. >> he's not going to stay nice to you. >> he was hedging towards you tonight. he was moving towards you. >> i think he was very nice, very respectful. i respect him. but you gave me a great ad. i'm doing the ad. i'm doing the ad. >> is that a good thing? >> i came out -- at first, i listened i said wait a minute, that's a great idea. i'm doing an ad like that. >> one last question bfr you leave. is donald trump honest when he says that barack obama isn't a legitimate president? >> so i knew you were going to ask me that question. >> it's a good question. >> i didn't say you couldn't. i knew -- >> you can't stop me. >> i should really -- no, i can't. i should not tell you this, but i do watch you a lot. i knew you were going to ask that question. >> he's president of the united states. >> i don't answer that anymore. >> you answer the questions you like. >> this guy is a total professional. i have to tell you. i don't answer, because if i do answer, that's all people want to talk about. >> if you answer, it's over. >> you're going to have to

answer it in a general election. >> if you take the oval office, the president leaving the office is illegitimate? >> i don't answer that question, because once i answer the question, they don't want to talk about the economy. >> it's over. we catholics believe in confession. you say you were wrong and move on. you really believe this guy isn't a legitimate president? >> i don't want to answer the question. i don't want to answer the question. did you have a good time? was it a good interview? >> what this? >> i watched you for a longer time. >> he's african-american and we're saying he's not a good president? i don't like that. that's not a good thing about you. i'm allowed to say you're a mixed bag. thank you. we'll have you for an hour. >> we'll do it. >> we'll go to what are trton.

>> come here, come here, robert costa, he covers this guy. what is this great man's problem? he doesn't want to solve his original sin? >> he knows with the republican voter, he needs the same voters. they still have questions about president obama, so they're playing right to him. middle of the road voters, swing states. they're not going to chuckle the way some republicans chuckle knowingly about that answer. >> howard, what do you think of this interview we just did? >> i thought it was utterly fascinating. and that's a guy who thinks that he's this close that he can smell it and taste it. he might have a little problem with ted cruz, but i think when it comes down to it, he's going to get after cruz. my theory of how he could do it is to challenge the notion that

ted cruz is really an outsider. that he's really a force from the outside. because ted cruz is backed by big wall street money. his wife works at goldman sachs. he's a senator of the united states, even though he doesn't want to admit it half the time. he worked at a big wall street law firm. he's a debater, not a builder as you said. it's going to come down to that at some point. trump is going to have to take on cruz. he may not do it full bore in iowa, but if cruz wins iowa, then it's -- you talk about making the sand glow. that's what donald trump is going to do heading into new hampshire. because trump absolutely has to win new hampshire. he absolutely has to win in new hampshire. that's a guy who still feels he hasn't put the pedal to the metal at all.

it's going to go a long way. that's my sense of it. i thought you were very right and did not only the right thing but the moral thing to question him about how he really produced himself back in 2012 as birther guy. and you're right. that's at the very beginning of the fear element of his politics. and he's going to have to answer for it. the past is never the past. it's still with us. and that's going to dog him all the way to election day if he gets that far. >> let me go to steve schmidt. trump has tremendous resources. he's a multibillionaire, yet he hasn't spent the money. if he were to do an ad campaign, would it win for him? or is it all grass roots and religion out there? i assume people watch television in iowa. >> it's a caucus state, chris. the question we don't know the

answer to, how sophisticated is donald trump's ground operation? how sophisticated is the data operation. are they collecting data at these events? is he going to be able to turn out voters who haven't previously participated in the process. one thing that is curious, he looks like a man who can smell it. he sees it in sight now. i think he's really starting to think about how he closes it out. but i wonder how much he knows about the recent electoral history of the republican party. the fact of the matter is no republican nominee has won both iowa and new hampshire. it's usually a split decision. he doesn't have to win iowa, and he's not going to win every state. he needs to do well in iowa. and i think he's positioned to do well. but i think so much of his message is predicated on the self-fulfilling prophesy of winning. i'm win, i'm winning, i'm winning, winning all these polls. but at some point, it's important when he goes to iowa to set expectations so he

doesn't deleverage himself in new hampshi new hampshire if the republican party performs historically. >> dot those i's and cross those t's. >> can i say one thing for one second? >> i know for a fact that ted cruz is specially organiuper su iowa. they know they have an incredibly sophisticated data operation. when you go to a caucus, the republican caucus is a little less onerous, but you still have to go. you have to put your ballot in the box.

we have no way of knowing. i don't think trump has nearly the organization on the ground in iowa. he would have to make that kind of commitment. he hasn't made the commitment that cruz has. and cruz has every evangelical supporter. he's got the radio people, the preachers, he's got the evangelical vote nailed down in iowa. trump is not going to get anywhere near that in that state. >> do you agree with that, steve? >> well, again, i think whether trump turns out a trump voter that we haven't seen before, we're just not going to know until we know, but in terms of dotting the i's and crossing the t's on that, look, i think what he's got to say is that the one candidate that's been nicest to me, ted cruz is the other candidates that's doing well in the state, you know, he's followed in my slip stream for a loft campaign.

he's doing something no one has ever done before, have the miami dolphins' perfect season. i'm going to win the first, i'm going to win the second. you don't win them all, but i'm going to wip most of them. and set himself to go into new hampshire, go to south carolina. once this race gets south, and if the candidates in this race are numbering four, five and six, donald trump is in good shape. he gets into a two-person race against ted cruz, this becomes a buyaire choice against the conservative candidate in the race and the ideological candidate. now, trump has been at a ceiling of around 35. now he's up around 41. so the trump ceiling has kept moving up in this race. we'll see if he can get to 50. and if he gets to 50 in a buyaire race, the person who gets over it, you know, is the winner. but until you do that, you need three candidates in the race. >> you know, i'm a big question

mark. i think he's more like itself than it is different. thank you. much more coming ahead. including the mayor of las vegas coming here. and top reporters are going to break down tonight's biggest moments for you. let's show you some of the clips if you missed it. this is "hardball" the place for politics. vegas, the last republican debate of the year. the fight before christmas. >> donald, you're not going to be able to insult your way to the presidency. that's not going to happen. [ applause ] >> and i do have the strength. leadership is not about attacking people and disparaging people. leadership is about creating a serious strategy to deal with the threat of our time. technology empowers us to achieve more. it pushes us to go further. special olympics has almost five million athletes in 170 countries. the microsoft cloud allows us to immediately

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>> of le ensure republicans tonight that you will run as a republican or support the nominee? >> i think i will do very well if i'm chosen if i'm so fortunate to be chose opinion polls have come out creptly saying i would beat hillary. i would do everything in my power to beat hillary clinton. >> welcome back to "hardball" live from las vegas. trump made it right near the end of the debate. there are there were a number of clashes between ted cruz and marco rubio. one of them over our syria policy. >> i believe that far too often president obama and hillary clinton and unfortunately more than a few republicans have

gotten distracted from the central focus of keeping this country safe. if we topple assad, the result will be isis will take over syria and it will worsen u.s. national security. >> anti-american dictators like assad who help hezbollah, who help get those ieds into iraq, if they go, i will not shed a tear. >> it's more than not shedding a tear, it's actively getting involved to topple a government. we keep hearing from president obama and hillary clinton and washington republicans that they're searching for these meth call moderate rebels. it's like a purple unicorn. they never exist. they end up being jihadists. >> wow. katy tor is with us. you know, i love this debate here because i'm watching and you, john, i'm watching rubio sing his song to all the money

guys on the neo-con big money side. i'm going to be the mid east hawk, i'm going to be pro israel like nobody. yet it's not working. when adelson is going to loosen the change and give him some help. >> he's trying to win the billionaire primary. >> singer. >> yeah. and he met with adelson. four of the candidates met with adelson. >> in his he toll. >> adelson likes rubio. >> when is he going to sprinkle some dust on that guy. >> he invested all that money in newt gingrich. that was down a rat hole. but that was a personal thing that went back 20 years. he didn't think he was going to win. he wants to be with the winner this time. i think my guess is he's choosing between rubio and cruz. >> but cruz is singing a totally different song. cruz is saying no more adventurous wars in the middle east. >> but here's what adelson wants. i don't think he wants trump.

rubio is the most viable candidate against hillary clinton. if rubio is not doing well after iowa, new hampshire, south carolina and nevada, i don't think he's going to invest money in him. if cruz is doing well, i think he would invest in cruz rather than trump. >> cruz is not going to beat hillary clinton. >> that's why i think he wants to load up on rubio, but some think he'll wait until the first votes are taken in iowa. i think he'll have to signal that he's getting a lot of pressure from some of his fren to do that. >> if you add up the votes of those who tend to be anti-war, let's not get involved in more of these wars, certainly trump, certainly cruz, carson and paul. there's four of these guys that are well over 50% now, no more of these foreign adventures like iraq. >> but trump is going back and forth on that. he's saying no more wars, we should let russia take care of this. but he's also saying we need to cut isis off at the head

anticipate bomb the hell out of him. his supporters are able to cherry pick what they want out of that. if they want to go to war and fix things then they will take what trump says about that. >> they are able to have whatever they want with him essentially because he's so vague about what his position actually is. is he for boots on the ground? yes, if it's necessary. is he for staying out of it? i would like to stay out of it. >> immigration, here we are, another major clash tonight between senators rubio and cruz was over immigration. very stark. let's watch the sides. >> i am personally open after all of that has happened and after ten years in that probationary status where they have a work permit, i personally am open to allowing people apply for a green card. that may not be a majority position in our party. >> there was a time for pushing where there was a battle over amnesty. and some chose, like senator rubio to stand with barack obama and chuck schumer and support a

massive amnesty plan. >> as far as ted's record, i'm always puzzled by his attack on this issue. you support legalizing people in this country illegally. ted cruz supported a 500% increase in the number of h-1 visas. >> i understand marco wants to raise confusion. it is not accurate what he said, that i supported legalization. indeed, i led the fight against his legalization and amnesty bill. and, you know, there was one commentator that put it this way, that for marco to suggest our record is the same is like suggesting the firemen and the arsonist have the same record because they're both at the scene of the fire. >> does ted cruz rule out ever legalizing people in this country now? >> i have never supported legalization and i do not intend to support legalization. >> well, i think cruz won for boring right there for the simile of the year, the fireman and the arsonist. two cuban-american guy, they

both come from that heritage fairly recently. absolutely adversarial positions on whether you get to be a citizen if you came here illegally. >> both of them, though, say -- they're both not people home opening their arms to immigration, though. it's a stark contrast to where they're from and how they come in this country. the critic out there have said this just doesn't make any sense. how can you be the children of immigrants and not open your arms to immigrants? look at the opportunity you've been able to get yourself here in america. and that's where they're having to draw a much harder line because donald trump has taken this entire party -- >> is cruz really more -- i'm not into ethnic stuff generally. but cruz obviously comes from a cuban background. he's very anti-communist. i think he has the experience with castro has a lot to do with his think, with his parents. yet he has this very tough line on becoming a citizen here.

>> i think katy described it very accurately. what's interesting about rubio -- >> by the way, he doesn't speak spanish. someone asked him if he spoke spanish, he got angry about that. >> rubio has always had that vulnerability lurking about the gang of eight, which he wants to rewrite history on where he supported a path to citizenship, because of the trump effect and because he's running in a republican primary, he's now trying to paper that over. and he's trying to sound tough on it and muddy the waters by bringing up, by saying cruz wants legalization as well. but what was interest about rubio he also came under attack from paul on this same issue tonight. this is the first time we've seen rubio under a sustained assault. and the guy is so smooth. he pivots off of it. >> did you notice he went right up to the edge to get a green card but he didn't say citizenship. >> trump has taken them so far to the right. you're not -- you can not -- >> what will get him to go all the way? >> you can not be for a path to

citizenship in the republican party right now because donald trump will hammer you on that. >> hillary clinton knew about that right away, right? >> up next, top vegas odds maker tells us who's got the numbers on her side. heading into 2016. her side, there's a giveaway. from bank of america to stir up the holidays, before earning 1% cash back everywhere, every time and 2% back at the grocery store, even before they got 3% back on gas, all with no hoops to jump through,

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>> i won't get my information from the shows. >> i think it's very sad that cnn leads jeb bush, governor bush down a road by starting off virtually all of the questions, mr. trump this, mr. trump -- i think it's very sad. >> welcome back to "hardball." we're live in las vegas tonight. what a good night it was. a good fight night, without putting a little wager on it. will the feed narrow in the odds change? former mayor oscar goodman. they're somewhat related. legendary odds maker, jimmy let me ask you about the odds. is hillary still the favorite? >> hillary is the big favorite,

first of all, hello to carol and the exmayor. they're always nice to talk to. hillary is a 1 to 10 favorite. it there's no one in front of her. >> how about the general? >> the general, obviously, you know, for the republican side, i've got three favorites now. cruz, trump and rubio. they're all at 3 to 1. the ones that showed well tonight i though was christie. so i change him from 75 to 1 down to 50. and i thought ben carson, even though he's a soft spoken guy, i gave him a little credit, too, from 25 back to 20. >> i want the line on november. >> it's not in november, democratic to retain the white house is 6 to 5. >> i'm glad he doesn't know the tell. >> is that hillary favored or

the republicans favored? >> the democrats are favored $1.20. naturally she's going to be the favorite going into november, but obviously i can tell you this, it's very cap tank rouse and very -- a lot of people responsive to the things we're talk about, especially the odds i'm putting out. one thing that i did was drew a lot of attention. will donald trump go independent? and at that time, i put it up, he was a 3 to 1 favorite not to. and actually with the proclamation tonight, i went back up 10 to 1. it's going to be interesting. you ought to think, the iowa primary is in the first week of november. that's about six days before super bowl sunday. you ought to come to that weekend and see a cross section of the world here. and ask them who they're going to vote on. i think you'll be quite surprised. >> i think hillary is the favorite. i think she'll probably win the general. probably. i think if she runs for

re-election, it will be even tougher. that's going to be tougher than this one. i think it's very hard for a party to stay in power more than 12 years. very hard. >> you're an east coast guy all the way. i can tell that. >> let me ask you about this city. cold weather out here? >> briefly. it was warmer this morning. this fight tonight was a good fight. a lot of talk in vegas, mayor. >> i'm so excited about it. we're having our final debate at the thomas and mack center. next october 16. and this tonight was another interesting night. but we've got 11 months to go. so a lot of things are going to happen. >> who's your best for the gate here? is it trump? trump/hillary? >> i remember somebody in the last election by the name of palin who everybody loved to listen to. i think donald trump is very exciting candidate and he draws the media. and so he's got that spotlight.

>> cot lar let me ask you, mayor, your honor, how does it work for a philly go out here? pretty good? we had the finals national rodeo last week. we have byu and utah. >> we have bryce harp enand chris bryant celebrating thursday night pop both native las vegasians. >> great baseball players. thank you so much mayor carolyn goodman and former mayor but also mayor oscar goodman. thank you for the betting odds tonight. i will remember them and perhaps use them. up next, our focus group of republicans. we had them on earlier tonight. we're going to see if they're still thinking the same way. the gop-leading dints, they tier called. telling us what they're thinking tonight. has event tonight affected their positions? you're watching "hardball." i take pictures of sunrises,

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. wl come to the republican debate in las vegas. how will the republican voters respond to what they actually saw. steve kornacki is with republican-leaning voters in the tri-state area. take over. >> that's right. here we are with our panel of eight republican-leaning candidates. they're all from the tri-state of new york. if that's a different kind of

republican, we just want to put that out there. you just watched the debate with the rest of the country. i want to go from the top row to the bottom row. you watched it for two hours. who in your judgment had the best night tonight? andrew, start with you. >> best night would be rubio, i think. he came off very clear and i really liked his message. and trump seemed very, very relaxed. >> glen? >> i think trefrp wump was verys game and stayed cool. he spoke about some issues pretty clear and he was very convincing, i thought. >> robert? >> chris christie. i thought he had a great night. i think he showed why i think governors potentially make the best presidents. he got to those points and i thought he did very well this evening. >> tom? >> i think carly fiorina really shone tonight. very strong. i think she was concise. she had a real good command of what she was saying.

i agree christie also came up strong. and in the cruz/rubio, i think cruz edged out rubio. >> we'll get into that in a minute, a couple of dust-ups. what did you think? >> i was happy to see that jeb bush came across very earnest and thoughtful and i think he knows a lot more than comes across in the debates. and also carly fiorina, very well spoken and really gets her point across. >> chris christie showed up today. he's the guy i wanted him to be six months ago. it's like where have you been? and he finally showed up today. he's my guy. >> i think jeb. i think he had his best night tonight. i love how he stood up to trump. finally. that was awesome. and carly. i think she had a really good night, too. >> i think chris christie really showed hymn as a leader today. we need a leadership to break away from the pack and i think chris christie did that.

rubio stepped up also. i can give him some credit for his performance tonight. >> let me ask you guys then. a couple of you guys mentioned the jeb bush/donald trump. jeb bush really came to go after donald trump, it seemed like. show of hands here n that exchange between the two of them, who here thought donald trump got the better of that exchange? >> obviously donald trump only did because he was -- he's so bold. but i think tonight, as far as i'm concerned, i think jeb bush has definitely made the cut and he's moving on. and i think chris christie really did show up and he's absolutely back in the game. >> let me take the flip side of this question. jennifer, i'll just ask you. who had the worst night? >> i think rand paul had the worst night. i mean, you know, the poor guy. it's just -- i feel badly for him. and also dr. ben carson. he said i'm here. it was almost like a "saturday night live" skit. like he was there, but no one was talking to him.

>> so ben carson was at the top of the polls just a couple of weeks ago. who here after tonight would consider mote vovoting for ben ? >> i just have to say, he's -- he's certainly a million times better than what's on the other side. in this field, he's being, you know, plowed under by all of this rhetoric that's going on. but in terms of intellect, in terms of clarity, in terms of being a human being, i think he's head and shoulders above everybody on the stage. unfortunately, that's not the contest. this is a -- not a cage fight, but it's close to that. that's our politics. >> we've got a bunch of love here for chris christie, as we said. a tri-state panel. we'll check in with them again later, chris. but that's the early verdict from our panel. >> thanks so much. i'm going to ask you secretly what you learned there. but interesting, very much an east coast crowd. where are you?

it doesn't have it written. ben, what did you hear from them? i heard jersey people talking about christie. and people a little more inclined to fiorina than i would have thought. >> a little home cooking maybe. it's tough to see how this debate is going to change the dynamics of the race going into the christmas holiday. but it's good to know that the hometown guy scored well with your focus group. >> i don't know, the hometown -- it's my home state, but he's not polling so well in my home state. so if that's home cooking, i guess it was -- >> tom, both of you guys -- then i'll get back to ben. what do you think the voters -- and people -- i've got to assume a lot of voters watched tonight. onces who are actually going to cast a vote. >> there are three more debates before new hampshire. you have one in south carolina, one in iowa, and there's still a

long way to go, still very volatile as you look at this. they're all speaking to different constituencies. bush, kasich, they ear all looking for endependence. who is vote in new hampshire. you've got trump, kind of stands out by himself. trump isn't about issues to him. it's identity politics, basically. alienated groups right now who are looking at trump. >> look, jeb bush helped himself a little tonight. by showing some energy against donald trump. probably not enough. i think -- >> when he leaves the campaign he won't look so bad? he's not going to win. >> he helped himself a little bit tonight. anything can happen. ask john kerry. >> not anything can happen. >> anything can happen. >> no. >> the person who hurt himself tonight, though he didn't need to hurt himself anymore, in the focus group had it that way was ben carson.

i think that trump is trump. and how you feel about him depends -- >> the monotone voice of his finally got to people? >> carson? >> trump is not monotone. >> maybe he could have shown some dazzling grasp of foreign policy tonight but he didn't. >> i want to suggest a loser tonight. you know when you play 8-ball, you scratch? if you scratch, you scratch. ben, you're chuckling. i believe that chris christie scratched tonight. when he said he wants to shoot down russian planes. a nuclear power. reagan wouldn't do it. we avoided fighting with the russians since '47 when the cold war heated up. we're not going to fight with the russians. when anderson was killed along the line there, dead man's line in east berlin, reagan said i'm not going to go to war over that. and crist see said yeah, i would

shoot down russian planes. >> i don't think it's a killer statement. i think he was playing to his audience. i think all the candidates tonight were to an extent playing to an audience. there was an iowa primary message, there was a new hampshire primary message. and a couple of candidates were playing to national audiences. and i thought that nobody in the top tier of candidates hurt themselves or will particularly change the dynamics of the race after tonight. >> so w45 camp is christie playing to? the world war iii buffs? >> we've had world war iii a couple of times. but he was playing to a crowd of people who were basically fearful for all the reasons you heard on the stage. basically stemming from the obama administration. and he'll be fine. >> headlines tomorrow, who's going to have their name at the top. who's going to say they won? ap wire, rueters?

if there is sup such an objective standard anymore, who's going to be the winner? >> i don't think there was a winner. >> go ahead, ben. >> well, i think cruz and rubio and trump will all be helped. jeb bush will get a nod that's positive. chris crist came across as who he wanted to come across to. they will all each get points for that. >> i think cruz and rubio going ach each other really demeans him a little bit. >> that was a spirited discussion. were we brought in on that debate? >> senate speak. >> i'm going to -- it was senate speak and it wasn't an obscure discussion, but i thought each of them did come off as substantive and knowledgeable. >> read more about it in the federal register. >> i like the federal register. >> they're playing to their voters. >> thank you. ben, you're great. >> ben, when you get another horse, let me know. i like your horse, scott walk per .you have to get another one

in this fight. >> it's fun being with you, chris. >> live from vegas, right after this. we'll be right back. at&t knows the best kind of holiday... is the kind where everyone gets what they wished for. make this holiday extra happy when you buy one get one free on our most popular smartphones... like the samsung galaxy s6. buy one get one free. so spread some cheer. and capture every minute of it. right now at at&t, buy one get one free on our most popular smartphones. ( ♪ ) ♪ i see the sights and scale the heights ♪

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>> well, the zus has settled here in las vegas after the fifth republican debate. my question is now, what will the headlines say tomorrow? joining me right now is the former rnc chair michael steele. this hour, donald trump was right here in that seat, sabrina's seat. and here's a bit of my exchange

with him. >> would you endorse and support whoever win from your party's side? >> yeah, i would. >> with enthusiasm? >> yeah, i would do that. with enthusiasm. >> with enthusiasm. i just wanted to finish out that news he made tonight. i think that's the headline. >> that' definitely the headline. what's also notable is that donald trump is largely in the background in tonight's debate. he wasn't really a factor. i think that's good for him in some ways. he's happy to let these other candidates spar with one another. happy to have ted cruz and marco rubio battle it out on the stage. jeb bush took a more aggressive tact. >> isn't it strange to have these two cuban-american guys fighting. one guy saying i believe in immigration but i won't go to citizenship. citizenship is what immigration is. you become a citizen eventually. he said well, give them a green card. i just thought that was -- and yet the other guy was like no way, jose. you're not getting in here. that was a tough line by cruz. >> the headline tomorrow is,

republican fis sures exposed. i think that's a good thing. >> i loved the debate on war. >> whether it's a war or immigration, the two center pieces tonight, where you saw those delineations between the cruzs and the rubios and the trumps and, you know, others who were different than he op foreign policy. >> we're looking at the guy who owns this casino. we're in the venitian now. the bridge of sighs and everything here 37. that guy, a gazillionare, he care mostly about an aggressive foreign policy in the meet, he's watching tonight. and he must have watched rubio singing his song. but there was cruz singing the opposite song. and trump, his fellow casino owner, no way are we going to any more wars in the middle east. that's a pretty good debate. >> i think marco rubio has had this consistently hawk iish

approach. azelson's wife has taken a liking to ted cruz. so i think the jury is still out. >> they're not on the same page. >> this is a significant division within the republican party and what the u.s. role should be overseas. >> it was a debate. michael? >> the neo-cons and the real lists -- >> i like the way you put it. you and steve schmidt put it together really well. that does it for us in las vegas. thanks for being with us here. join us again tomorrow night for "hardball" back east in washington. this saturday, democrats will debate saturday night. i just love working saturday night late. but it will be another big debate. bernie sanders has to make his move. see you then. fight back fast tums smoothies starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue and neutralizes stomach acid at the source tum, tum, tum, tum smoothies! only from tums we heard you got a job as a developer!!!!!

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