good evening. we can see what's happening in the republican fight for president right now. the outsiders led by donald trump are winning voter support. they include ted cruz and to a declining degree, ben carson. all the outsiders are going great. the outliers are getting the lion's share of republican support. the establishment types led rather sadly, i must say by jeb bush, are shrinking in support, more so in confidence. all the bold talk of last summer about trump and the mavericks are gone. the question is can the establishment voice the governor's of the country, republicans, state party chairs, koch brothers take it. they may be nominating a birther for president or a persistent burn the house down type in ted

cruz. last night it was this reality that burned through. we begin tonight with the national establishment. the embarrassment of trump's birther talk which is reviled by many establishment republicans who know it's a killer for them. we saw it all up close and personal last night when i interviewed trump on this show after the debate. >> is donald trump honest hen he says barack obama isn't a president snp. >> i didn't say you couldn't. >> you can't stop me. >> i should not tell you this, but i do watch you a lot. >> it's the president of the united states. >> i don't talk about that anymore. i don't answer because if i do answer it, that's all people will want to talk about. >> you'll have to answer it in the general election.

>> catholics believe in confession. you say you were wrong and move on. you really believe he's an ill legitimate president? >> i don't want to answer the question. >> i didn't end there. there was more birther talk. he was introduced by maricopa sheriff joe arpaio, one of the first to declare the president's birth certificate a fraud. >> if you recall five months ago, i introduced donald trump. at that time i said a few things we have something in common. the birth certificate investigation which is still going on. >> you know, i brought it up last night. i'm proud i did. i think this is ethnic and racial questions. the fact he's not american. he won't change. he won't take it back. yet he's running 40%. >> nor does he raise the issue that ted cruz was born in canada. >> he get a free ride.

>> if you want to go on the issue. this must be something that trump still believes. it seems weird and crazy that someone who is a birther and believes this crazy methodology is leading the republican process for the nomination for president of the united states. >> the theory is just to run through this one more tragic time, if gene's right then trump's crazy because the presumption that some white kansas woman went to africa for the purpose of having her baby born over there to african to sneak back to honolulu and have announcements made at the hospital he was born there. doing it all on purpose to make him ill legitimate. so this kid she named barack hussein obama to make his president, the whole thing is looney toon unless you're playing the racial card.

i don't think he thinks it. i think he think it's game he can play in helping with the bad guys out there. your thoughts. why is he doing it? >> i'm afraid i think that you're exactly right. i don't think he's crazy at all. i don't think he believes it for one minute. i think that he's started in a systematic way to build up a certain kind of base in the republican electorate when he was thinking about running for president in 2012. we said he's not going to return. turns out on the basis of my reporting, he was pretty serious about running in 2012 and now we see him running in 2016. he started to build his base then and expanded the base by playing the same kind of ethnic cards by talk about rapists coming from mexico and muslims. >> he plays the race card, obviously. he did it with mexicans. he did it with muslims and with african-americans.

that's part of who trump is. i don't see what the purpose is of persisting with the birther stuff at this point for him even with his base. he's got his base. >> there are a lot of public officials and public figures who spent their life covering a story that isn't true. they just don't want their friends and family to know they were bs'ing the whole time. >> at some point -- >> he could have done it last night. he could have said i think he's legitimate. that's all he had so say. >> he didn't. >> jeb bush attacked trump with new found energy. i think this was pre-fab. somebody fed him the lands but it was trump who landed the biggest blow. >> this is a tough business to run for president.

>> you're a tough guy. >> we need to have a leader. >> real tough. >> you're never going to be president of the united states by insulting your way. >> i'm at 42. you're at 3. >> doesn't matter. >> pretty soon you'll be off the end. >> that is schoolyard pure and simple. we all grew up with that in regular high schools, not just touchest high schools. it's looking like hail mary time for the guys get bullied. political reports prior to last night's debate senior bush aids began looking into the possibility of making a clear break with trump potentially

with the candidate stating that if trump were the nominee, bush would not support him. my thought at the end of that conversation is that he was going to support the winner, he had gotten that word. i'll promise to be loyal while he's thinking of saying i won't be loyal to the nominee. >> right. >> i think there's a reasonable chance of that. he's very well plug into this organization to the kind of scuttle bug that runs around the republican party. john kasich said he might not support trump. i thought that was the question begged to be asked. i think he's left the door open a little bit. the question i want the moderators to ask everyone on the stage, whether they would

support trump if he were the nominee. that would have been a news making question. i think there are a lot of people on that stage. a fair number of people who could consider or definitely not support trump. >> trump rallied crowds in arizona and took swipes at jeb. here he is today. >> there's a movement going on. this isn't just like let's have a good time. somebody said trump's a great entertainer. that's a lot of [ bleep ]. i'll tell you. we have a message. we have a message and the message is we don't want to let other people take advantage of us. i have endorsements from incredible people. the people that i want. i don't care if a guy like jeb bush never endorses me. i wouldn't bother me at all. i think it's a negative. i get these massive numbers on terrorism. everybody wants trump for the protection because they know i don't know what i'm doing. >> why don't you show trump. the other guys seem like deadheads. they don't know how to knock him off. some of this is, let's be honest, way back to the days of lincoln giving those three hour speeches, i think they threw in some laughs once in a while to keep the audience standing out there in the heat. >> i think so. he's an amazingly talented political performer, donald trump is. he knows how to draw attention

to himself. he gets more free media than you could ever buy even with his money. what we're seeing is the food fight that the republican party has become. >> i think these hurt him. if i were an opponent, i could get these faces, these ridiculous mugging he's doing out there. to me it showed lack of what he's good at, quick response with a word or two. he didn't have the right word. he made faces. >> they were effective faces. >> you think? >> i think they were too much. all that mugging last night. i thought too much. your thoughts. >> there's no doubt it's theatrical. he comes across like he's having fun. he looks like he's having fun on the stage. you can see that about very few of the other republicans especially someone like jeb bush who has looked miserable throughout the race.

donald trump look likes he's having a ball. >> let's talk about this bro-mance. they'll have to keep waiting. cruz refused go after trump and trump made public display of afaction for cruz during the debate and in be spin room. >> he has a wonderful temperament. he's just fine. don't worry about it. >> okay. >> you know what i like about ted cruz, he was with me when nobody else was. when i was saying things that were strong and now people came back and they said trump turned out to be right whether it was illegal immigration or so many other thing, ted cruz was the one person that really backed me. he was with me. i have to respect that. >> this is what the republican establishment, i think we have to come up with a new word for it because there isn't one. today there's nothing like that.

they're just wamping these two outliers or out laws dominate the party. >> the republican party is not what it was 20 years ago. it's different. >> why does it look weaker than the democrats? hillary clinton is getting her share of it. all the hanging fire for leading the country or not leading it, they have taken a lot more incoming. the republican leadership is in tatters. >> it is in tatters at a moment when republicans control both houses of congress. they have done fantastically well in state houses. what they have been able to agree on is they want power. they haven't been able to agree on other very important things. >> i want this as my most important statement last night. i never heard anybody say this having been lucky enough like all three of us to live through

the cold war because people of calm leadership discernment on both sides knew that we shouldn't go to war with each other. we're two big, too proud to fight with each other. it would be earth destroying. last night somebody didn't get the message. the other establishment hope is chris christie. the governor in trenton who is rising in new hampshire. christie's brand is brute force but he could get himself in trouble. last night he took an uber hawkish stance with russia. he said he would risk war with putin. this morning he talked about shooting down russian planes and saying so on national television that he's going to do it. here he is. >> that's what the no fly zone means. don't fly. if they fly there, their pilot gets shot done. >> that may cause world war ii, what's your response? >> the problem for folks like

senator paul is they don't realize we're in world war iii. >> if russia is our ally, should we be shooting down our planes because we're not engaged in world war iii with them. >> you're assuming russia is our ally and i don't feel that way. russia has been stealing our lunch money the entire time from the obama administration. they are aligning with the iranians to create an iranian empire across the middle east. i don't call that a friend. >> charlie rose was trying to bring sanity to that conversation and he kept trying to bring him into it. why do we want to go to war with russia by shooting down their plane. the guy would not stop.

>> i agree with you chris that that's what charlie was trying to do. i think chris christie to the extent he's risen in new hampshire and one of the people who have gotten some elevation out of this post-paris, post-san bernardino moment, it's been by being a tough guy. projecting brute force, brute strength, i think he rooking at trump's example and the way trump has gained he's trying to be a slightly more reasonable version of trump. he thinks that's in his political advantage. i'm not sure he's wrong. >> if we had him during the cuban missile crisis, we wouldn't be here. >> trump's targets, illegal immigrants, foreign muslim who

is want to come to this country. people who are not physically a threat to him. russia is one of the countries on earth that the united states cannot go to war with. it can never happen because russia has thousands of nuclear weapons, as do we. to talk like that definitely contradicts or take back any momentum. >> at right do we have to pick some country in syria to say anybody who flies there, we shoot them down. this craziness has gotten out of hand and say if you do something we don't like, we'll kill you. last thoughts from you, john. >> there's a lot of crazy talk going on in this nomination fight. both parties, people say stuff that they would not be the policy of their administration.

it's hard for me to believe that chris christie would pursue the ideas he said this morning on cbs. >> thank you. you're laughing when you said that. i'm not laughing at chris christie. it's one thing to yell at some call in person during a call in show and being unpleasant to her or him, it's another thing to talk about world war iii. you couldn't miss the republicans trying to go after hillary. tieing her to everything that's gone wrong. it used to be obama for the weather. now hillary is responsible with obama for everything that goes wrong. they did it consistently last night. they are looking to run against the third obama term. i know what they are up to. ask she present herself as a fresh start? can she beat this rap? who are they most afraid to face? a mistrial in the first of those closely watches cases relating to death of freddie gray. the city of baltimore is on edge

tonight as we might have expected. among the top candidates who helped their cause last night heading into the christmas holiday and who didn't. we'll check on all of that tonight. lots of politics tonight with the hardball round table. let me finish with the worst thing anyone said in las vegas. fight before christmas. this is hardball, the place for politics.

politics team compiled a list of talk time in last night's debate. ted cruz came out on top with under 16 minutes of talking. marco rubio and donald trump clocked in at 13 minutes. the bottom of the pack no surprise, john kasich and carly fiorina. you can catch the democrats saturday night in new hampshire. join us afterwards for a post

debate show on msnbc mere on saturday night. i'll be here with the highlights and a lot of stuff. interesting stuff. we'll be right back. automated voice: to file a claim, please state your name. carnie wilson. thank you. can you hold on? ♪ hold on for one more day really? hey, i know there's pain. why do you lock yourself up in these chains? ♪ this would be so easy if you had progressive. our mobile app would let you file a claim and help you find one of our service centers

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welcome back. to hear the republicans tell it last night, hillary clinton was practically a co-president with barack obama the past seven years. they tied the former secretary of state. watch how they do it. >> when hillary clinton said her theory against isis will be just about the same as the president, get ready for more unrest and more murder and more violence in middle east. what is barack obama and hillary clinton done to this country. >> hillary clinton and barack obama's strategy is to lead from behind. >> they are responsible for the growth of isis. >> barack obama and hillary clinton are the wreckless people.

it's so dysfunctional. barack obama and hillary clinton have betrayed the american people. >> hillary clinton has aligned herself with barack obama. >> president obama and hillary clinton are proposing bringing tens of thousands of syrian refugees to this country. >> he's far too often supported hillary clinton and barack obama. hillary clinton and barack obama. president obama and hillary clinton. barack obama or hillary clinton. what i the you is all nine of the people would make an infinitely better commander in chief than barack obama or hillary clinton. >> that's like one name now. they have a plan to tie these two together and drown them. >> i ran for the senate in 2012. that was the republican plan against me to brand me as a

barack obama supporter. every negative ad they ran, 50% of the people like me better. that whole line of attack last night is blame america first attitude. things are going wrong in the middle east. it's got to barack obama and hillary clinton's fault. it's not the fault of radical jihadism. it's not the fault of bad governments in the middle east. it's got to be america's fault and president obama's fault. i don't think the americans want to blame america first and that's the way all these guys are running and i don't think that's going to be appealing to the american public. >> to become a partner of the president's, but is it harder for her to talk about her accomplishments?

she did so much work as secretary of state. >> i think that is important for her to do. she gave a speech yesterday in homeland security. it got less attention than the debate last night. if you watch that speech, it's the difference between an adult in the room and people who are throwing around sound bites who don't know what they're talking about. i think that the work that she's done as secretary to follow the work as a senator, to follow the work as first lady gives her a on this foreign policy and international security issues. i think the contrast between her and anything you heard last night is very, very sharp. >> let eets take a look at what some of republicans were saying about foreign policy and national security last night. >> you are an american citizen and decide to join us with isis, we're not going to read you your miranda rights. you're be treating as an enemy combatant.

>> we have to go like we did in first gulf war. we need to have a coalition that will stand for nothing less than the total destruction of isis. >> isis and radical islam terrorism will face no more determined foe than i will be. we will utterly destroy them by targeting the bad guys. >> we would shoot dun the planes of russian pilots if they were stupid enough to think this president was the same feckless weakling like the president we have in office now. >> that's a lot of tough talk. like we're going to carpet bomb and turn them into a parking lot. >> barroom talk. it's more than barroom talk. two of the slips you played are from u.s. is that rights who been in this body during 16

months of war and rather than have a debate about the war and vote to authorize it, they've been hiding under their desks. they don't want a debate. they don't want to be held accountable. they want to criticize the president but they want to hide under their desks. that's the kind of presidents they will be. >> you're great. thanks so much senator tim kaine. each candidate promising they were the best option to beat hillary clinton. >> our message has to be big and bold and positive. >> if we do it, we will beat hillary clinton and run the white house. >> we need to beat hillary clinton take our country back and keep our nation safe. >> i'm so fortunate to be chosen. i think i'll do well. polls have said i will beat hillary. i will do everything in my power to beat hillary clinton. i can promise you. >> let me ask you, is this it?

who is she most afraid of? >> i think she's most afraid of marco rubio. >> because he's young and cute? >> young, new generation. >> he's cute, right? >> pro-immigration. >> every time he talks, every time he talks i hear a tape recording. i hear a guy who has speech parts like going to the hall of the presence. he's already skipped being president and in florida, orlando and disney world and reading the scripts like the great speeches of marco rubio. now we're hearing pieces of. there's no hesitation. it's all software. >> it's 24/7 repeat to you and i. to the majority of republicans and the majority of the republican base who is not watching him carefully and on the stump, it's still fair lu new. last night he said he doesn't

want to read the miranda rights to the terrorists but he's more than willing to allow them to continue to buy guns on the terror list. he's using fear mongering and this inflammatory rhetoric to ignite the base. he doesn't want to talk about the economy and the fact he doesn't show up to vote to improve our security to fight isis and we can increase troops to fight isis. he's talking to a base and he's trying to steal the momentum away from ted cruz. i don't see that happening. >> that's one way of getting guy off because he's not an immediate appeal. the guy would walk if you didn't give him his rights. >> i think rubio did well last night especially counter your friend ted cruz. >> my friend, i don't think so. >> i thought it was a good debate. >> you think people followed that? >> i don't know.

i thought rubio was stronger than a lot of people thought he was going to be. i thought there was a debate between jeb and trump. i think the other guy could be strong against hillary is jeb even though he's way down in it will the polls. he's got the credibility. >> how does he handle the 42-3 charge? >> he just has to keep moving forward. >> he's not a snapper kind of guy. he's a slow, nice, considerate and also considering kind of guy. he's out there trying to snap this guy like with a whip. he doesn't look real to me. with trump, that's his forte. >> he's trying to keep his funding. this is his last chance. i don't see him continuing to grow and raise money.

when you look at ted cruz and marco rubio, they have a lot of cash on hand. they are raising and keeping the cash on hand. jeb bush is outspendsing everyone. he's really on his last life right now. i don't know how he's going to be able to rise up above this right now. >> why doesn't jeb bush leave with class and is a what he believes about assimilation, education and how his family has shown how america can grow with hispanic people as part of your family and we have to be open. say what believes. >> we haven't seen the first vote yet. i think that jeb, remember when john mccain was at 4%. >> okay. >> i'm not saying he's going to win. i think marco is the better odds. >> the only hope you guys have. >> he's our only hope. if it's trump or cruz, we're in big trouble. >> do you think the president was born here? >> cruz. >> no, obama. >> yeah. >> i'm not going to answer that question.

ted cruz was not born here. >> is he here legitimately? >> absolutely. >> see which sane minds agree. we'll be right back with politics in a minute with the hardball round table. up next, mistrial. trouble probably in baltimore. the police officer charged with manslaughter in the death of freddie gray. this is hardball, the place for politics.

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calm and said anyone who chooses to protest should do so peacefully. >> all of us, if we believe in justice, must have respect for the outcome of the judicial process. the some choose to protest, they must peacefully demonstrate. that is they're right. we will not and cannot be defined by the unrest of last spring. >> i'm joined right now by laura coats. thank you so much. >> thank you. >> when you hear a mistrial, sounds like somebody did something wrong but that means they couldn't reach a verdict. >> after 16 hours of deliberation, you would think that would not be enough time to have a thorough and full deliberation process. in reality, what you saw here was just that. you had seeds of reasonable

doubt that had been planted throughout the trial by the defense team and you had some real deficiencies in the prosecution's argument. what likely happened is they said they couldn't come together and decide on even one charge which is a little shocking to the community. we all thought it was a tough uphill battle on the manslaughter charge but misconduct, reckless endangerment and assault. the reason for this is the fundamental flaw of the case is that the premise is that we're punishing him for something he did not do. he failed to seat belt in freddie gray and failed to get medical attention. people are not used to that standard for a police officer. >> is there precedent for this being used in the case as important as a manslaughter case, not doing something in. >> it is. it's almost like the idea of a police officer having to have a different standard in all sorts of cases. keep in mind that people fundamentally trust the police

over any other citizens and over any other group. it's not a flawed concept to say that you can be punished for failing to do something especially if you, as a police officer, your entire job hinges on you being pre-active, not just reactive. william porter was the last person to hear freddie gray's dying declaration for help. you just can't escape that really bad fact. it's far from over. people have to understand is this is a real chess game. there's a reason officer william porter trial went first. there's a reason the trial will be the van driver whose has more serious charges. there is a strategy and plan. >> coming up, who is in a stronger position today than they were headed into last night's debate? the fight before christmas. who was the winner. our roundtable will tell us. that's coming up next. you're watching hardball, the

place for politics.

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welcome back. the emerging candidates are hoping to get out from behind trump's shadow all turned on solid performances last night. hold up did the debate help them in the early contest. candidates have to win new hampshire or before that win iowa. they're all focused on that. no candidate was ever won without winning one of these states. however, none of them have won both. nobody has ever done it. you have to win one of them or you're not going to be the nominee. we love the math. chris christie, one shot, win new hampshire. did he do something last night to advance that goal? >> he started last night or one of the bigger moments when he looked straight at the camera

and said if your eyes are glazing over over what rubio said, then we're in the same boat. >> let's see. >> i want to talk to the audience at home if your eyes are glazing over like mine, this is what it's like to be on the senate. people who have never had to make a position in an executive decision. i had to make these decisions after 9/11. they continue to debate about this bill and the sub committee. are we going to have a president who know what is they are doing to make these decisions. >> new hampshire is the state that likes people that are independent. that might help him there. >> i want to say frank underwood turning over and saying did you

like those clowns. >> you know what, frank underwood also spit on the crucifiction of jesus. >> it's the roundtable. do what you want. >> it's interesting that you make that analogy because new hampshire is state that's more secular and concerned like any other state about issues of terror. it lessens the bridge gate issue but he's been poised to know what terror looks like. >> does it work? did it work for him last night? >> remember, this wasn't the first time that governor christie has done that whole look at the camera thing. he's done it at every debate. it's very effective. he's leapfrogging the moderators and everybody else in the stage

and going into the person's living room saying look at me, trust me. i agree that's what he is appealing to the new hampshire primary voter who values independents. >> let's go onto ted cruz. he said political correctness is preventing the obama administration from stopping terrorist attacks. let's watch this number. >> it's not lack of competence that is preventing the obama administration from stopping these attacks. it's political correctness. because of political correctness, the obama administration, like a lot of folks here, want to search every one's cell phones and e-mails and not focus on the bad guys and political correctness is killing people. >> there he is saying only go after people who seem like they are from the middle east or islamic and skip everybody else when we check people at airports. that seems to be what he's saying. i don't know what else he could

be saying. >> a lot of those candidates walked down a very path last night. they even called it out. it's a religious war saying it's -- >> we're talking iowa. does this help in iowa? >> iowa are a very savvy group of voters. nay know what they heard. >> they picked santorum last night. >> yes, they did. >> they picked huckabee. >> they listen to the issues not necessarily the person. he showed he was -- >> the theory he's doing. >> he showed he was a fighter. >> he's doing there is selling nativism. we don't want to focus on the white people. we want to focus on people that seem foreign in some way. they're the ones we should focus on. >> right. what do santorum, cruz and one other name you mentioned earlier, what do they all have in common?

the language that they use, huckabee, the language they use in their campaign is red hot. it's so red hot, it goes over the line. that works in iowa. yes, there's iowa nice but the iowa nice only relates to in between candidates. they don't want -- >> why do you home school your kids? the keep them away from the influences. >> he's taking page out of donald trump's book. he's saying trump is succeeding with this attack on political correctness. i'm going to keep doing that too. >> the reason was lindsey graham last night. >> i didn't catch the early act. >> he called out to george w. bush saying he missed him. he also said this is -- we shouldn't go down this road. this is not a religious war. you shouldn't just lump everybody together. >> let's look at donald trump's body language. i thought he really hurt himself with his multiple occasions he made grimaces and these weird faces and mugging the camera. let's take a look. >> he gets his foreign policy

experience from the shows. >> if you're going to kill the families of terrorists. >> we need to have a leader that's real tough. >> who would be -- i just can't imagine somebody booing. >> this is troubling because we're at war. >> it's john mcenroy stuff from tennis days when he didn't like the call. >> we've seen the faces since the first day. if you look at the other candidates, they're acts have changed. >> does that help him or hurt him? >> i think it hurts him. >> eventually, what year? >> i've gotten out of trump predictions. >> it's not hurt him at all. it's part of his thing. rachel it's that confidence and that arrogance that people love. >> if the bully is on your side, that's one thing. we have to decide that. tell me something i don't know.

this is "hardball," the place for politics.

president obama plans to meet with families of the san bernardino shooting victims. that's before heading to hawaii for his christmas vacation with his family.

we're back with the "hardball" roundtable. jonathan tell me something i don't know. >> wedged in the omnibus bill is $750 million for el salvador, guatemala and honduras. >> remember thousands of unaccompanied minors coming over the boarder. >> to make it easier for them to say. >> yes. >> there was a lot of talk of people wanting to go to dr. ben carson. he said he had a cash-only

business for two years. >> no insurance. >> and people who could afford it were the ones that could go there. >> and also in that spending bill, for decades the united states has not been allowed or oil produce verse not been allowed to export u.s. crude. the white house has opposed that for a long, long time. now that's part of the bill and the white house is removing its opposition. >> what's that going to do to gas prices? >> it probably won't do anything because oil is so low. it's interesting the president is now backing off on that. it may create problems with environmentalists. >> thank you, all.

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let me finish tonight with the worst thing anyone said in last nighties republican presidential debate in las vegas, the fight before christmas, if will you. no doubt about it, chris christie's call to shoot down russian planes over syria. we got through the 20th century by one simple rule, don't go to war with the russians. that got us through the anger millions of us felt about the soviet domination of eastern europe, world war ii, got us through the downing of a korean passenger airliner.

these in addition to the larger wars fought with surrogates, the korean war, vietnam, afghanistan and most dangerously it got us through the 1962 cuban missile crisis, which would have gone nuclear. chris christie could have possibly never read a history book and does not care about the future safety of this country or the world we share with others. i hope the russian people know that the american people are sane enough to keep christie in trenton where the only damage he can do is local. that's "hardball" for now. thanks for request with us. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. >> tonight on "all in" -- >> the family's not angry, no one else should be angry. >> a hung jury. a trial for first police officer in the death of freddy gray results in a mistrial.

we'll go to baltimore for the latest. then about last night. >> about last night -- >> donald trump and jeb bush keep hammering. but will it change anything? >> he's not a serious candidate. he gets his news from the shows. >> plus will republican tough talk keep america safe? >> we're already in world war iii. >> you would carpet bomb where isis is, not the city. >> the patient is in critical condition and will not be cured by political correctness. >> political correctness is killing people. "all in" starts now. >> good evening. from new york i'm alex wagner in for chris hayes. we are following breaking news from baltimore, maryland where people took to the streets after a mistrial was declared in the first of six prosecutions of the baltimore police officers