will presidential election year 2016 be a year of growth or uncertainty for small business owners? and the hottest small business trend of 2015, the rise of the on-demand economy. a look back and ahead with lots of advice in between coming up next on "your business." >> american express open can help you take on a new job. or fill a big order. or expand your office. for those who constantly find new ways to grow on every step of the journey, american express

open proudly presents "your business" on msnbc. hi, everyone. i'm jj ramberg and welcome to "your business," the show dedicated to helping your small business grow. as 2015 comes to a close, the story that has come to define small business in the last year is the exponential growth of the on-demand economy and the fundamental shift in the way expected by almost anything, any time with the simple tap of a button. that convenience is trickling down to an industry that until now has been notoriously difficult to connect with. we're talking about home services.

just about anything you can think of is available on demand these days. massages, dog walkers, house rentals, and of course a car to take you anywhere you need to go at a moment's notice. and if uber proves anything, it's that consumers like getting what they want when they want it. and that's a revolution air idea for the $400 billion home services category. >> online booking is going to be the future of home services. it's happened already in other categories. this is where consumer preference is going. >> so how does an industry made up of millions of independent small businesses like plumbers and contractors all with their own systems and ways of doing things tap into this on-demand trend? >> homeowners in the old days just wanted to find -- now it's shifted. they want to be able to engage deeply in the digital platform. instead of calling they can see their availability, their calendar, choose a time, book the appointment right there.

>> when cheryl simmons needed dry wall work done in her home, she wanted a contractor she could trust at a fair price that was available right away. >> i've come to rely on the technology that's available now. and yes, it happened quickly. i wanted it to get done. >> she found mary hudman's company through home adviser. a match-making portal for homeowners to find professionals with a good track record. >> i thought it was a great way to get a reputable company to come in and do a job without me having to worry if they're going to show up. >> on the flip side of this transaction is mary hudman of hr dry wall. she's a small business owner looking for a reliable customer that was ready to start a project right away. cheryl the homeowner used the service for free. mary the business owner pays for the new customer lead from home adviser which streamlines the process so consumers can connect quickly with a contractor to get the work done. >> so what would have taken

maybe a couple of days and a bunch of phone calls now takes a couple of minutes and a few mouse clicks. >> mary hudman relies on this not only for the lead but also the technology that enables her business to connect with customers at lightning speed. >> small businesses that are antiquated in the way that they're not moving forward will probably fall off the cliff and essentially close their doors just because everything's so instant. people are, you know, they're attached to their phones. they're attached to technology. so we had to move in that direction as well. >> for small business owners, contracting with a lead generation company is nothing to do. but what is new is the uber connection of our economy. where consumers expect to find projects and services with a high degree of speed and predictability. this where companies like home adviser, thumb tack, porch, and amazon home services come in. their technology not only does

the match making, it also navigated the complexity of making appointments so homeowners see they can move forward on a project and professionals can focus on doing the work instead of getting the work. >> instant gratification is the name of the game today. i think it's a good opportunity for people to get what they need. as a contractor in this business i get what i need and makes it efficient and it does cut out a lot of the red tape. >> chris doyle's ec plumbing business is only a year old. he says between 85% and 95% of his revenue comes from the work he receives from the multiple lead generation portals he uses. >> for companies in their infancy, it's probably crucial to their survival. word of mouth can take years. really if you're not doing something like this, you're not going to make it. you're going to die. >>there's no way i can foresee anybody being able to start a business without getting into this new technology of instantly connecting with the customers.

there's just no way. >> and keith stewart should know. he suffered the ups and downs of the economy when he started his business a & k garage door services in 2007 when the construction industry was hit very hard. back then he was one of those guys who thought a yellow pages ad might offer his business a little traction. but the phone never rang. >> the ball game changes as you go. you have to stay on top of it. i don't know a lot about computers and marketing and all that. i work on garage doors. >> but keith learned quickly his smartphone is the key to running his business smoothly in the field. on this particular today, his lead matched him up with a homeowner who found keith's business had a lot of great reviews and availability on the calendar. >> i noticed i was getting some kind of squeaky thing going on. so i got on home adviser and put in i needed repair or adjustments. and then home adviser starts sending me names and people that are available immediately to do the work.

so i picked out a & k, the garage guy that came today. he had over 200 referrals and said he had a good price range. sure enough he called me back and then he came out and worked on it. >> i think it's extremely convenient. it just works great. i mean, it's less work, less hassle. you know, i feel good about it. i can connect with a customer right away. they're happy to get it resolved. it's just an all around great thing. >> the on demand economy was one of the more positive developments for small business in 2015 along with an uptick in hiring. but as it comes to a close, it's waning. the optimism index was down 1.3 points to 94.8 in november with big worries cited over government regulation and taxes and the presidential election in 2016 is adding to uncertainty.

bill dunkelburg and brian. good to see you both. >> good to be here. >> hi, jj. >> bill, what number year is this for us doing this? >> at least five. >> i want to start with the actions of the fed. it's the end of the year that's moving into 2016. how do you think that's going to affect small business? >> well, not a whole lot right at the moment. after all, everybody's already got their low interest loan as a banker a little community banker we've been making loans all right. so the people that have their loans won't be impacted for awhile unless they've got one tied to a variable rate. that would be okay. what we're looking for really is a positive impact. we're hoping that the fed making some statement about their view of the economy, how much better it can be will encourage more of

our owners to expand their business. unfortunately they did there so long i'm not sure they didn't lose much of their message. >> i don't think the small businesses are dependent on those numbers anymore. i think they gloss over them. they know they're just sort of economist numbers. they're out there really understanding their customers more than ever. i think that they're not interested in being coddled by government and dealing with the issues of the economy. i think the smart businesses, the people who talk to on this show are the ones more in control of their businesses. and they'll factor in any changes that take place like that. and they'll continue to prosper. >> it's just not big enough of a move to affect loans in any kind of significant way or affect borrowing. >> right. >> so i know that bill, his report says optimism is down. do you see? >> there's two worlds. i live in an urban economy. and in an urban economy, it's driven by optimism almost to a

syrupy extent. where everybody deceives themselves a little bit to believe they are going to be the ones to make it. and that's kind of good because then they actually drive themselves to reach heights that most of the time they would never have said. in an urban environment like here in new york city, there is no failure. it's the old line it's not an option. i think unfortunately in other parts of the country that aren't urban, they don't have that same energy level that drives a lot of the urban environment to believe more optimistically. >> are you optimistic? >> i'm always optimistic. i think smart companies will recognize there are smart consumers and they'll figure out how to find them and support them. in a mobile environment where engagement and facilitation is a critical factor, i saw a hair dressing company open up in my gym yesterday. because they realized that's who the customer is. so there's always customers. and yes, there's a balance sheet and it has taxes associated with

it. and it has all government issues. but a smart company who's in control will figure out how to succeed. >> what do you think, bill? what do you think people are feeling about next year? >> well, you know, obviously you pointed out our sentiment level has been falling. the 40-year average for the index is a 98. we're well below that. we've just never gotten above the average in this expansion. brian is right about customers. they're out there. we get 3 million more every year. that's 3 million more beauty trips or something. small businesses like he looks at and invests in, some of those could grow quickly. most of them don't grow, they multiply. you get more shops. that's out there. if you look at consumer spending over this expansion, it's grown about 1.5% a year. about half the rate it did beforehand. so overall we don't have enough customers out there. that's why small businesses

aren't expanding their operations, aren't investing in capital equipment. >> so do you feel people are simply cautious? or are they not spending or not investing? >> well, the university of michigan index is falling as well. so consumers are still kind of pessimistic about the outlook. many more of them think government policy is bad rather than good. according to the michigan index. and we see the same thing in the small business sector. we asked people is it a good time to expand or not. 10% said yes. that's a very low number. 55% said no. most said no because the economy is bad. the second reason is the political climate. that's really the uncertainty you were talking about. the real enemy of growth. >> you know, we -- go ahead. >> well, no. i think small business is tuning out a lot of this economic analysis and sentiment. those companies that are listening too much to this stuff

are not sure what it means and say to themselves well i don't really care anymore what those people tell me. >> to just end this on a note of the election, what should we be looking for to hear from the candidates next year? we're going to be deep into it next year. >> well, the things that small business owners really care about, we've talked about it. they really care about health care costs, uncertainty about the economy, uncertainty about government policy. it was nice to see something happening with 179 expensing. that would be good for them. and of course the energy costs and cost of regulation and red tape. they'd like to hear people tell them how they're going to deal with those issues. those are weighing down the small business sector and slowing the economic growth. that's what we need to fix. >> what do you think we need to be listening to? >> we need to deal with the uncertainty and doubt. the candidates now seem to talk somewhat more gibberish these days. i can't even grab onto what they actually think or believe in. so i tell everybody -- and i

just got back from europe -- to ignore government and just move forward and just build your business and satisfy your customers. >> great. that's a great answer from both of you guys. it was so nice to see you. indeed we'll be reviewing this again the end of 2016. i wish you both a happy holidays, happy new year. >> and to you, jj. thank you. the biggest problem with running a seasonal business is that it's a seasonal business. and that means you have months with no revenue coming in. not to mention you have to lay off good employees who you've trained and trusted. we recently met the owner of a lawn care company who solved this problem for himself. he used to shut down for the winter but now he's taken his staff and refocused them on the holidays. >> it is the number one best investment we made for our company. >> year after year, arnie was having the same problem.

he had to pay 12 months' worth of bills while doing only about 9 months' worth of work. with high costs and no money coming in, his landscaping company was a bit nerve-racking. and that's why he found a holiday solution to his annual dilemma. the company invested in a franchise. christmas decor was an ideal way to cover his seasonal gap. >> you start decorating around the beginning of december. you'll fill in at least that time period. do a bit of takedown after that. we could fill another four to six weeks of work. >> brandon stevens is the president of christmas decor. >> we help seasonal companies operate a business during the wintertime. we go out to customer's home, design displays, install them, maintain them, take them down. >> he understood the tight spot arnie found himself in every year. problems like employee retention were bad for business. >> we train all these individuals and it's not easy

for them personally to be laid off year to year. sometimes you'd lose them because they found a full-time job. >> christmas decor was started in 1986 in hopes of making the decision to run year round easier for seasonal small business owners. while anyone can be an owner, operations like this are a big fit. >> they have most of the kmimt they need. they have employees used to working outdoors. >> from the day they began franchising in 1996, the business has grown. >> we have about 270 owners and we cover 375 markets in the u.s. and canada. >> one of the reasons arnie has stayed with the company is the amount of support he gets from e the home office in texas. >> if you have an issue whether it be a question from a client, a product they may be requesting or things like that, you're able to reach out to christmas decor and the answers are taken care of. >> owners and installation crews are also required to take part in seminars about safety and

christmas decor makes an early investment for things like lights to make sure the owners have access to the supplies they'll need. >> we negotiate with manufacturers of these products and bring them into our facility in texas and distribute them out of there. we step out early in the year, january, february, and a lot of times we pay for this stuff in advance. so we operate as a close network, we make the investment so the franchisees don't have to. >> purchasing decorations are just part of the agreement. owners pay royalties and are invited to events. >> we do a 1% ad fund which we use for branding throughout the country. we have an annual conference which is a great networking opportunity but also has quite a bit of education. >> yes, this is a seasonal franchise, but it's grown in some unexpected ways. some decorations are now going up month bfrs christmas. >> we've been starting the first

part of october. this year we went into september. >> when we first got into this, we expected it to be this business model that's up on the shelf that you could operate during the fall. but the client wants to engage earlier. >> as a result, two things have happened. arnie has a sales rep dedicated solely to the franchise and he usually has to hire more help in the fall even though the number of crews no longer fluctuates. >> we use the employees that are on the landscaping year round and we'll work them into the christmas part of the business. and we'll actually use the other help that will come along to help us in the fall cleanups and closing up the landscaping side of the business. >> christmas decor may have taken on a more prominent role in arnie's business but he says the original landscaping name gets top bill. >> here we are 15 years later with the christmas decor brand but they associate it with our logo on all of our vehicles and

trailers. they now understand that they're working with a quality company. >> and brandon says that's the way it should be. when we come back, retailers dread it around this time of year. we let you know how to deal with the onslaught of returns and exchanges while keeping your customers happy. and we raise our glass in a non-alcoholic toast as the fourth generation owner of family beverage business bartinelli's gives us tips on this week's learning from the pros. we thought we'd be ready. but demand for our cocktail bitters was huge. i could feel our deadlines racing towards us. we didn't need a loan. we needed short-term funding. fast.

our amex helped us fill the orders. just like that. you can't predict it, but you can be ready. another step on the journey. will you be ready when growth presents itself. realize your buying power at open.com. this week's "your biz selfie" is a group shot from heather plum and her staff at the reflections of you salon in fairfax, virginia. we want to see your selfie in the new year. pick up your cell phone. take a photo of you and your business and send it to us at yourbusiness@msnbc or tweet it to us and use #yourbizselfie. so many of us are scrambling to get gifts and chances are we may be making some bad decisions. and some of those are going to

end up right in the return pile. as a small business owner, what should you are thinking about to make sure your return policies and processes do not turn anyone off. paul is founder of shepherd presentations, a firm that works to build loyal relationships with their employees and customers. >> great to be here. >> so what should a return policy look like, and where should you be posting it, but there's nothing more annoying than not being able to return something. >> right. and 85% of consumers or customers won't go back to a place that causes friction during a return. it should be posted in an obvious place. whether it's an on-premise in-store experience it should be clear what the return policy is. if it's online, it should be easily found. people should be comfortable with that return policy. they should know what it is

ahead of time. >> before they make the purchase so they know they only have themselves to blame if it doesn't work out. >> maybe you have it posted up, just take it back if you are a store owner. >> just take it back. here's the thing. are you confident enough in whatever you're selling that you would be willing to take it back. why would you sell it if you know somebody was going to bring it back. a client i worked with had the most incredible return policy. he said we'll take back anything for any reason. if you don't like the color of the box, we will take it back. >> isn't that complicated? you may feel confident in what you have to sell but sizes, colors, they're gifts. perhaps the person buying the gift isn't going to give it to someone who likes it and then it messes with your whole inventory, et cetera. >> well, somebody is going to buy that sweater for somebody and it's not going to fit or be

the right color, the gadget isn't something they wanted. work with the manufacturer ahead of time. know and have a deal with the manufacturer that they are willing to take merchandise back for pretty much any reason. >> you suggest that people extend their holiday return policy. by how much? a few days? a few months? a year? >> i think a very liberal return policy may be a 30-day return policy. gives people a chance to try out whatever it is they bought. make sure they like it bring it back. if it's a holiday and you are buying your gift for somebody on black friday or cybermonday, well, 30 days later, approximately is going to be christmas. doesn't give you much time to return whatever you bought. extend it to maybe an additional 30 days or through mid-january. let people know that that's what you are doing for the holidays. i believe it will create confidence, confidence creates more sales, and more sales, who doesn't want that.

>> shep, thank you for coming on and giving your tips. martinelli's sparkling cider say staple at so many tables. it was founded in 1868 by steven g. martinelli. this nonalcoholic drink is the company's number one selling drink. we sat down with the company's great grandson at their headquarters. he tells us why all entrepreneurs must expect the unexpected, challenge assumptions and plan for a succession in this "learning from the pros." ♪ >> build upon the past. often in a family business the next generation rests on its laurels and they are more interests in distribution checks and not investing in the efficiency the future. when i joined the company in 197 d our plant was worn out and we

couldn't supply the demand we had for our products and we were pulling out of markets. and losing shelf distribution. my dad was entertaining offers to sell the company. if we hadn't reinvested in the company at that time, we probably would have gone belly up. i was handed a process for making apple juice the old-fashioned way. in a company over 100 years old you get used to doing things the same way. we've been doing it this way since 1868 and you can get stuck in a rut and not take advantage of improvements that can improve the quality of your product and reduce costs for the consumer. we used to store our juice in open red wood tanks nrd part of the system i brought in was dare i standard stainless steel tanks

and cold filtration methods that actually improved our process. still doing it the same way that grandfather did but with modern technology. expect the unexpected. of course it's important to have a plan but equally important to be nimble and able to seize opportunities when they come up. because our competitors are all really big companies, we know they aren't as nimble as we are and not as capable of making small adjustments and custom packs. we had a major customer who saw one of our really old labels on our website and they said we would really like to feature that item. is that something you can do quickly? we were able to turn that around in six weeks and listened to our customer. if they have a special request we take it seriously and do everything we can to accommodate them.

anticipate and innovate. prior to 1920 when prohibition was just about to be passed, my grandfather developed a past dl eurization process. when hard cider was made illegal, we were able to convert that into a nonalcoholic version which is our sparkling cider which is what we're most known for. if he hadn't anticipated that law obsoleting our number one product and developed a solution, we might not have made it through prohibition. plan for succession. over the last four generations there's been a martinelli ready to take the helm. generation five is not quite ready. we've found a professional manager to be our 4.5 and mentor the fifth generation prospective

managers. having a professional nonfamily manager to mentor my son and my cousin makes it a lot easier for us to maintain our personal relationship rather than having it be a father/son business relationship. succession is not just a ceo thing. it's absolutely critical for a company to have the mentorship of the people that have done the job before and the youthful exuberance for the next generation. >> thank you, everyone, for joining us in 2015. it has been a great year. i know i've been so inspired by the entrepreneurs and small business people i've met over the past year. i hope we've been able to tell their stories in ways that have inspired you as well. we also have a treasure trove of tips and advice from people in the trenches. as you get ready for 2016, head to our website where we've posted all the segments from the year. it's openforum.com/yourbusiness. you can also follow us on

twitter and on facebook and instagram. when we return to january, we kick off the new year with a brand-new small business makeover. we head to texas where they meet the owner of a woman's apparel store whose company seemed to be doing really well but at the end of the month she never had any money to pay herself. it's a common story. find out how our experts dig into her marketing and finances and get this owner paid. until then, i'm jj ramberg. have a happy new year, everyone. and remember, we make your business our business. our cosmetics line was a hit. the orders were rushing in. i could feel our deadlines racing towards us. we didn't need a loan. we needed short-term funding fast. building 18 homes in 4 ½ months? that was a leap.

but i knew i could rely on american express to help me buy those building materials. amex helped me buy the inventory i needed. our amex helped us fill the orders. just like that. another step on the journey. will you be ready when growth presents itself? realize your buying power at open.com fight night for the democrats. squaring off in just their third presidential debate. >> i worry too much that secretary clinton is too much into regime change. >> with all due respect, senator, you vote forward regime change with respect to libya. >> we need common sense gun -- >> let's calm down a little, martin. >> yeah, let's tell the truth, martin. >> can bernie sanders get a second win? also, battle lines in the gop. the politics is getting personal. >> if i lost the nomination, yeah, i guess i'd call myself a