obama hosts that summit on refugees at the u.n. that does it for me this hour. "mtp daily" starts right now. >> if it's tuesday, the outsider wing of the gop keeps getting stronger. and no one is flexing that muscle more than donald trump. it's "mtp daily" and it starts right now. good evening from washington, i'm chuck todd, and this is "mtp daily." the strength and dominance of the outsider wing of the republican party may be the most amazing political story of this year. in the latest national polling, this from quinnipiac shows the trend is continuing until the final days of this year. trump at 28%. cruz in second at 24. rubio in third place, followed by carson, christie and bush.

no one else gets more than 2%. but when you combine trump, cruz, and carson and their percentages and those outsider candidates together, 62% of the republican vote, establishment candidates, rubio christie and bush together, 22%. ouch. up until now, donald trump has focused much of his bluster on his primary rivals, but now he's looking to cement his front-runner status, by setting his sights on his eventually opponent if he wins the nomination -- hillary clinton. one of trump's biggest weaknesses is the perception that he's unable to beat clinton in the general. in fact, as this latest quinnipiac poll shows, trump trails clinton in a hypothetical head-to-head by seven points here. clinton and cruz are tied at 44. so the perception might be a reality. trump's war of words with clinton has been escalating over the last few days, after the clinton campaign stood by a claim she made during saturday's

democratic debate that trump's rhetoric was being used by isis to recruit militants. trump demanded that clinton apologize. clinton's response was "hell no." and last night trump sounded off using some of the crudest language he's used today and some will find offensive, but had social media going crazy. we'll play you the full bite without the beep for now, so you understand the context and the impact. >> i may win, i may not win. hillary, that's not a president. that's not -- she's not taking us -- everything that's been involved in hillary has been losses. even a race to obama. she was going to beat obama. i don't know who'd be worse. i don't know. how does it get worse? but she was going to beat -- she was favored to win and she got slonged, she lost. >> clinton communication

directors said, we're not responding to trump, but everyone who understands the humiliation this degrading language inflicts on all women should. while not naming him by name, she brought it up in her most recent town hall. >> you are looking at somebody who has said a lot of terrible things said about me. and i'm well aware of the fact it's really easy to do that and you say it and you send it around the world and luckily i'm old enough it doesn't bother me, but i can't imagine what it's like to be a young person in today's world. that's why it's important to stand up to bullies wherever they are and we shouldn't let anybody bully his ray inway int presidency. because that is not who we are as americans. >> meanwhile, senator ted cruz, while not supporting trump's language refused to chide him either. >> you know, there are an

abundance of political pundits in the world who assess every comment every candidate makes, i don't need to be a political pundit. i'll let donald trump speak for himself. i'm going to speak for myself. not everybody name drops muppets so easily there. trump didn't just take on clinton. he amped up his attack on one of his favorite targets, us, the media. here's what he said when referencing vladimir putin. >> they said he's killed reporters. i don't like that. i'm totally against that. by the way, i hate some of these people, but i'd never kill them. i'll be honest, i would never kill them. [ laughter ] >> i would never do that. ah, let's see, no, i wouldn't. i would never kill them. but i do hate them and some of them are such lying, disgusting people, it's true.

[ cheers and applause ] >> it's true. but i would never kill them and anybody that does, i think would be despicable. >> there you go. more dehumanizing rhetoric from donald trump taking on clinton and the media in his vitriolic way. only boosting him with his base. but will his front-runner status continue to '16? let me bring in susan paige and our own chris matthews. he's got a special "hardball" edition of sorts which we'll get into. >> this is a highly produced program. i really like the light and you got camera guys here. this is big time. >> he's nittic approxima ipicki things here. >> no, there's a lot of square footage here. [ laughter ] >> before we get to trump and his rhetoric, let's talk about this where the year began in presidential politics, outsiders versus establishment. the establishment, 22%, rubio, christie and bush together.

2/3 of the republican party want somebody like cruz, trump, or carson. >> so people are saying maybe cruz is the establishment now? cruz who -- >> they got to start rationalizing. if this poll is right, he's head to head with hillary, it's not what everybody thought. >> so that's how far we come, that cruz now represents the establishment in some people's minds. who's the credible alternative now? >> what's happened? it's stunning to see the establishment fall like this. >> you know, people criticize us for talking about trump too much because he's good copy. if we did the same to jeb bush, he would be a disaster still. i don't think any amount of time would make him interesting. he doesn't have a rationale for the campaign. trump does. he wants the job. he wants the power. i don't think bush even wants the job. i do think there's a lot going on. in the 30s, the hollywood -- you remember the old guys with cigars, jewish smart guys, she's

good-looking, she's going to make it. they'd figure out who the movie stars were. and politicians were like that. they would go, this guy's got it, he's the general win arti-- article. who picked bush and said he's the right guy? who said jeb's got the stuff? nobody except jeb bush himself. even his mother said, lay off the bushes. i think trump is a self-promoting genius who knows all about the media. the name trump is like coca-cola in this country. and the other guy, cruz, suppose three months from now and it's trump versus cruz and rubio hasn't caught on and christie hasn't made the leap in new hampshire. what happens if it's these two guys? where's the republican establishment going to be? with cruz or trump? >> they're going to be with cruz. >> you really think so? >> if your choice is cruz or trump, don't you go with cruz? >> that's sort of like the

opposite of sophie's choice. >> i've never met a congressman or senator who likes the guy. they say he's brilliant. >> every time that's uttered on television, it's like another cruz angel gets its wings and he goes up in the polls. >> who does more harm to the republican candidates and their hopes of holding the senate? trump probably does more damage than cruz. >> riddle it this way. if you're rob portman, in ohio, in the fight for your life. you know what cruz will say on a given day. you know the type of campaign he's going to run. you can plan for it. the problem with trump is, you don't know what he might say. look at today, for example, he's the nominee, used that derogatory word. >> i think people when they get a good look at cruz. they don't like his face, the way he presents, his personality. he's 5'8". he's this guy with an attitude

of anger. look at him there. i don't see a happy guy there. i see a guy people don't like. >> the image of him is that he's what chris describes in washington. but when he's on the trail, he's a happy warrior. the guy is nothing but smiles. the guy is very magnanimous. >> he's smart, very good on his feet. he's very strong in debates. and i think he's trying to work on being likeable to the degree that you can work on being likeable. >> if these two candidates are as bad as you say, there will be a third candidate in this mix, but it's not clear who that's going to be. >> why does the establishment lessen down? if bush hadn't run and say romney had, would romney be in a higher place? >> you remember how the republican party was formed before the civil war. it was the abolitionists joining with the wigs. today the wigs are the establishment, the people with land in those days, not with

money. the bushes are the wigs. the abolitionist don't believe in the constitution, it had slavery in it, they were ready to rebel and formed a coalition under lincoln to make it work. but i think it's coming apart. i don't think the people out there, the home schoolers in iowa have anything in common with the bush family. and they're not hawks either. the establishment republican party broke its pick on iraq. i don't think we focused on this enough. cruz and trump -- >> they're both -- >> i think they broke their pick on that. >> they're totally different. rubio's in another place. >> and it takes the party in another direction. >> slavery. >> one is a hawkish military stance and that's no longer -- >> that's true among all the candidates until you get the o two we mentioned, cruz and trump and of course rand paul. >> the best way to get chris matthews on your show is if you play a chris. i've got a clip and we'll talk

to him on the other side. >> he has tapped into a part of the electorate that is, i think, deeply angry about the state of the economy. >> how stupid are the people of iowa? how stupid are the people of the country to believe this crap? >> this guy's just saying what people are thinking. >> donald j. trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of muslims entering the united states until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on. >> trump's statement is a dangerous proposal that overrides history, the law, and the foundation of america itself. >> you're putting donald trump, full throttle, ready to destroy anyone who gets in his way. >> describe this. the point of this, you're

painting a picture of politician trump. >> it's like the movie "citizen kane." it's an attempt to figure where did this guy come from, how did he get to be this guy, like the herst newspaper barron. by the way, it carries all the negatives with it. there's no saint donald trump. he's brash, bragard, publicity hound, had bankruptcies all through his career, serial marriages, sex scandals, all this is all part of him. it's not like we're unearthing him. but when you walk out from an hour tonight, you'll say, i can go into any bar room argument tonight and win on either side. he is fascinating and i think he's underserved himself. if i were him, i'd be spending the money. >> he wants to win. >> he should be talking about his career as a builder, not as a carnival guy.

he ought to be saying, i may be a builder, but i'm better than this guy, cruz. i've actually done something. what has ted cruz ever done? and then go building after building after building. i built in the toughest city to get something up in and i've done it over and over again. it's a better story. i don't want to build him up because all the negatives are true. they're all there. >> "citizen trump" not quite citizen kane, but close. >> when will he tweet starting at 7:00, how fast will it get out? are my numbers wrong? >> i'll say he will wait until 7:20. he'll have somebody on there that will say, it's an old documentary, unwatchable. >> chris is a good guy, but he screwed me on the numbers. something like that. >> there it is. >> then again, if he likes it, do you really want that in this business? >> he'll say msnbc treats him better than fox. you might get thrown into that.

>> all right, oh, well. >> we're going off the rails here. >> susan, thank you for being patient as always. i'm going to watch. an msnbc original special, citizen trump. . >> a video grenade. >> you heard it from him. later in the hour, a look at the highlights or low lights on the, of trump on the trail. wait until you see what we've put together. 6 now more than ever america's electricity comes from cleaner- burning natural gas. and no one produces more of it than exxonmobil. helping dramatically reduce u.s. emissions. because turning on the lights... isn't as simple as just flipping a switch. energy lives here.

. it's our weekly check-in on how much the candidates are spending on tv ads. so how much are they shelling out? the end of 2015 in sight, here's the ad spending in the presidential race so far. total it's topped $111 million. 1/3 of that comes from one entity, team bush. between the right to rise, the super pac that is supporting

bush, they've shelled out $37 million for ads. the bush campaign has chipped in oh, another $1 million to that. team bush has spent more on tv ads than all the campaigns put together in the 2012 cycle and i'm also including obama. in 2012, 7 million and 8 million respectively on ads. and on the bottom of our spending list for 2015, but at the top of most polls, donald j. trump. we'll be right back.

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devastating news the past 24 hours, that their loved ones were killed in an attack in afghanistan. among them, a woman, major adriana vert brug an. she distinguished herself as a member of the air force office of special investigation. she's also one of the first openly gay females to be killed in combat in afghanistan. she's the first openly gay female officer killed in afghanistan. among her colleagues, chester mcbride. there were facebook postings about him, saying he was a stand-out football player in high school. peter tout, he leaves behind a wife and a young daughter and his wife just recently found out that she was pregnant. he has family here in the washington, d.c. area. joseph lemm, you may have seen video of him today. he's deployed twice to afghanistan, once to iraq. and there was some touching video of him when he was renewted with his wife and three

kids back in 2013, when he returned from deployment to see them all reunited after a year of being apart from one another. also louis bonna casa, he leaves behind a wife and a 5-year-old daughter. we have a group of airmen, six killed, two more wounded, as well as another u.s. contractor, who was serving as an interpreter. they were out for a meeting essentially. and these airmen were doing security for the meeting when a lone suicide attacker on a motorcycle came up and blew himself up killing six of them, and wounding three more. >> forever changing the way these spouses and families will think about the holidays. courtney, i appreciate you sharing what we've learned about those. let's do a little bit of other news that's impacting the pentagon. and that's bowe bergdahl and what's going on there. a hearing today, explain what happened.

>> we saw bowe bergdahl for the first time today. he of the arraigned in a military court. it was a very short session. allegedly he was reportedly respectful. he deferred his plea and also a decision on whether he wanted to be tried in front of a military judge or a military jury. so it was exciting to see him for the first time in the more than 18 months since he was released by the taliban. we've only seen one photo of him that was released by his attorney last summer. we saw him for the first time dressed in his class a's, but there really wasn't a whole lot of news out of it. he deferred all of his pleas. >> is there anything to read into the decision to defer? >> not really. there's been some speculation that it was -- that there's going to be a plea agreement reached here. so the fact that he didn't -- between the government and his attorneys, we haven't seen that yet obviously. this gives him a couple more weeks before he'll be back in

court sometime in mid january. but they can go to the full court-martial and still reach a plea agreement. just because they begin the trial doesn't mean they lose their ability to have a plea. >> do they want the trial? or is there incentive not to have the trial? >> i think there's incentive on both sides not to have the trial. we saw the serial podcasts where he's getting his story out there now. his attorney had wanted the investigation transcripts to be released. the army refused to. but now bergdahl's story is getting out there. so he doesn't have any incentive, they can have a quiet plea agreement and not try this in the court of public opinion, which is already is being anyway. and potentially, it would be his best opportunity to really avoid some kind of jail time. one of his charges, he has the potential for life in prison. that doesn't seem particularly likely, but again, if he goes to a full court-martial, there's the potential he could face life in prison. >> courtney kube, based at the pentagon, thank you. >> thanks, chuck.

still ahead, the threat that could literally mean lights out for millions of americans. ted koppel joins me to discuss his scary but very important new book, "pandora's box," it's all on cyber warfare. and is ted cruz the best bet against hillary clinton now? the panel is here to break down the latest numbers. ideas are frightening because they threaten what is known. they are the natural born enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary, and messy and fragile.

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see gummies in a whole new light. it's become increasingly clear that the wars of the 21st century will be fought in new ways and probably in cyberspace. in recent weeks, anonymous has launched attacks on isis and our government is playing both offense and defense against russia and china. with fears of a major cyber attack on our own infrastructure at the front of our minds. to discuss this new normal, i'm joined by ted koppel, author of a new book called "lights out, a cyber attack, a nation unprepared for surviving the aftermath. a little doom and gloom.

>> a lot of doom and gloom. but i didn't create it. i decided to write the back after i heard the president warning about it twice in the state of the union address, leon panetta, all saying it was more likely than not that there would be a cyber attack on the power grid. that would mean tens of millions of people without power for months. but you also point out, i don't know if we want to call it cyber terrorism, but it's happening already. the chinese clearly, we think they stole a bunch of -- >> 103 million. >> right. records from the government. the united states may have thwarted the iranian nuclear program with its own stuxnet. >> not may have. stuxnet was -- >> cyber warfare. >> we have the interesting distinction of using nuclear weapons for the first time.

and we were the first to use a suber weapon against iranian -- >> and did we open a pandora's box? >> we did. the iranians are almost as good. the chinese and the russians are the best. the problem is if isis gets the capability, and they have the money to buy it, and we're in real trouble. >> isis is whipping us on social media. is whipping us in the world of cyber, but in different ways. with propaganda. and we seem to have no ability to stop that. >> i think that's because in large measure, you have folks at the state department doing it, who are just not very good at this kind of thing. we need to hire a bunch of 16-year-olds to do this. >> corporate america is very worried about it, as we've heard before. but does it have to be a government solution? how is this going to work? >> part of it, part of our greatest vulnerability is that

we are this wonderful democracy that allows everybody to have a say in what they do. private industry does not like the idea of government regulation. one of the great weaknesses of the electric power industry is that it's been deregulated. you have 3,200 companies and the most vulnerable sort of give access to the rest of the network. >> and that's how this could easily happen? >> that's how it could easily happen. i can't tell you the number of really smart, high ranking officials who have said to me in effect, it's not a question of if, it's only a question of when. >> over 70%, the survey said that they believe terrorist acts are a new normal and they're accepting it. >> they are and they aren't. it's extraordinary to me, we accept the fact that 30,000 people a year die on our highways. sort of part of being an american citizen, right? but if a dozen or a couple of dozen people die in a terrorist

attack, it becomes our obsessive attention for weeks at a time. that's not where the greatest danger lies. >> as we know. i think you're absolutely right. it's right here in cyber. the books is "lights out." always an honor to see you, mr. koppel. >> appreciate it. like to get you ready for the holidays with a little fear of cyber terrorism. still ahead, our own kasie hunt has collected the best of the worst. but first hampton pearson with the cnbc market wrap. >> another rally. the dow climbs by 165 points. the s&p up 17, the nasdaq rises by 32 points. the economy grew at a 2% annual rate last quarter, slightly less than the earlier report showed last month. existing home sales slid 10.5% in november. the sharpest drop in five years.

economists expect a gain. and a tough session for shares of chipotle which slid 5% as the cdc investigates new e-coli cases in three states. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. when you buy one get one free on our most popular smartphones... like the samsung galaxy s6. buy one get one free. so spread some cheer. and capture every minute of it. right now at at&t, buy one get one free on our most popular smartphones.

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well, trump's crude comments about hillary clinton in the media last night are really just the latest in what's becoming a pattern of attacks and sometimes bombastic statements. just when you think he can't go any further, he does. kasie hunt takes us through some of the greatest hits. >> reporter: donald trump announced in june. >> when mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best. they're not sending you. they're not sending you.

they're sending people that have lots of problems. and they're bringing those problems with us. they're bringing drugs. they're bringing crime. they're rapists. >> reporter: by july, trump was dismissing former prisoner of war john mccain. >> he's not a war hero. he's a war hero because he was captured. i like people that weren't captured, okay? i hate to tell you. >> reporter: then in august. >> you could see there was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her -- wherever. >> reporter: in september, trump was quoted in "rolling stone" talking about carly fiorina. look at that face, he said, would anyone vote for that? >> i'm talking about persona, i'm not talking about look. >> reporter: the next month, trump retweeted someone who said iowa was supporting ben carson

because they had brain damage. then it was on to november when trump mocked carson's personal story of how he once tried to stab his friend, but broke the knife on his belt buckle. >> how stupid are the people of iowa, how stupid are the people of the country to believe this crap? >> reporter: and then this. >> donald j. trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of muslims entering the united states. >> and of course chuck, last night we had the comments at the rally where donald trump talked about the male anatomy and hillary clinton, and at this point, it feels like it's so much noise. i'm again not sure if there's anything he could say that would keep him from going forward. >> that's what we're trying to wonder. i think lighting himself on fire. maybe that's it. >> that might do it.

>> stick around. let me bring in the panel we have now. joining me now, eliana johnson, suzi kim, charlotte cook. charlie, let me read you one stat. you love our poll almost as much as i do. in the first time we questioned, could you see yourself supporting trump? 74% said no. in december, 61% of republicans say yes. donald trump, you just went through it. if i told you he said all that, you assume those numbers would have gotten worse, but they've gotten better. what do you make of it? >> i wonder how much of it is for him and how much is for the message. it's just a way of venting their spleen. so i think part of it is a way of articulating a level of anger, anxiety, apprehension.

in some cases, afraid of what's going on in the world. but also i think some of these conservatives, they see president obama's weak and in decisive and they're looking for a super hero. so it's some combination of those two things. but yeah, i don't think he's going to say anything to collapse. >> he's have to physically harm somebody. >> i think what would have to happen, you're going to have, when people start making the transition from sending a message, to picking a leader, temperament, judgment, starts coming into play. and that's when i think they'll go to a more plausible vehicle. >> 50% said they'd be embarrassed if trump becomes president. that's a hurdle that he's dealing with, the general election electorate. >> absolutely. trump is giving voice to some real concerns in the republican electorate. when he voices them, he's

roundly condemned, not only by democrats but by his fellow candidates. that's really gasoline on the fire. people don't feel like they're getting a hearing from the people in their own party and it makes them even angrier than they already are. but i think those people know he's not a viable general election candidate. doesn't mean they're not going to say they support him right now, because he's giving voice to a lot of frustration, anger and concerns, who these people who don't feel like they've been heard from either party really feel. >> democrats are yufrorric, the clinton campaign thinks, really? we get to have a fight with donald trump? >> there's a point where be careful what you think you want. >> i think so. it was interesting watching the retrospective of trump's greatest hits, or lowlights if you wanted to call them that. i think there was a turning point when he made his call to ban muslims. this wasn't just something that he said off the cuff, something flippant, but an ideology that's

extremely hardline and something that democrats should have realized actually this isn't really funny anymore. that maybe even before things weren't funny anymore, that there's still a dangerous element to this. there's something that really does resemble the national front party in europe, that there's an ideology here that could unify people in -- to support bigotry, to support racism and that could be something that is cohesive and potentially dangerous. >> kasie, you've been on the trail at plenty of trump rallies. you talk to the trump voter. they know what he is. and that's what they weirdly like. >> i think it's a combination of things. they definitely know what he is, and frankly, you talk to them, you have conversations with them about donald trump and they almost sound like donald trump sounds. they're essentially repeating a lot of what he said, so it's clearly getting through. i think that to suzi's point,

33 there's a spectacle element to this as well. >> they're going to a show. >> right. they absolutely want to. i talked to a rubio supporter, he said, my friend called me and said, you want to go see donald trump, it's saturday afternoon, and he said why not, of course i want to go see donald trump on saturday afternoon because i got the chance to do it. it didn't mean he's going to vote for him. i also run into democrats. and there's no other candidate that benefits from that at this point. >> the question is, are they going to show up on a monday night when it might be snowing somewhere in waterloo, iowa for donald trump? kasie hunt, thank you. we'll have much more on the campaign trail talk ahead. up next, the who, what, when, where, and why in the headlines, including somebody who is leaving the republican party and why 2015 was a year for congressional inactivity, as

opposed to 2014 and 2013 and 2012 -- anyway, we'll be right back. where is my hotel? où est...mon...hotel? we have a reservation. nous avons une...reservation. my wife needs new shoes. mon... preparing to travel can get complicated. switching your wireless service can be easy. just visit your at&t store and see. can i help you? oui. i mean, yes. it's this easy. they'll explain your options, answer questions. and that's how you shoot a panorama. magnifique. and right now, get three hundred dollars in credits for every line you switch. i can transfer contacts and photos, too. incroyable. see why jd power ranked at&t highest satisfaction with the

purchase experience among full service wireless providers. and this is a good translation app. merci beaucoup. right now, aarp members can get a 10% discount on your qualified wireless plan. plus, three hundred dollars in credits for every line you switch. to make your appointment call at&t and switch the easy way. time for the ws. the who, it's evangelist franklin graham, son of the legendary pastor billy graham. franklin graham announced he's leaving the republican party over its failure to defund planned parenthood in last week's spending bill. now to the what. it's not quite the millennium falcon, but spacex made history last night with an unprecedented vertical rocket landing. it's the first successful landing for a spacex rocket, fueling the space race between

elon musk's spacex and blue origin. now to the where, our friends in the "new york times" times collected a bunch of these. the farm route here, appearing in front of a tractor. a lot of senators included pets, but diane feinstein featured just her yorkshire terrier. and virginia's tim cane is jamming out with santa here, or something. now to the when, 2025, the year when hillary clinton wants alzheimer's to be cured. he's proposing $2 billion a year in hopes of treating the decease. now to the why. year-end statistics on congress. 100 bills were passed into law on 2015, compared to 224 in 2014. 12% of the bills that made it to the floor in one chamber became

law. as to the why, with a republican majority in both houses, viewer bills earned president obama's signature. up next, the how, how ted cruz feels about a face-off with donald trump. all that's next. discover card. how can i help you? oh, you're real? you know i'm real! at discover, we're always here to talk. good, 'cause i don't have time for machines. some companies just don't appreciate the power of conversation! you know, i like you! i like you too! at discover, we treat you like you'd treat you. get the it card and talk to a real person.

advil pain relievers are used by more households than any other leading brand. to treat their aches and pains more people reach for advil. relief doesn't get any better than this. advil. welcome back. we talked a lot about donald trump today. but the real front-runner of course might be ted cruz and he's riding a huge wave of support on the campaign trail. a new national quinnipiac poll has cruz four points behind trump.

the two of them well ahead of the rest of the field. and look at this rise since november, up eight points while the others have stalled. today in tennessee, cruz welcomed the field narrowing down to just him and trump. >> i did think it was interesting that donald trump said a couple days ago that he thinks this race will come down to him and me. i think donald may well be right. i think it could easily end up being a two-man race between donald trump and me. and i think that presents a good choice to the american people. >> the panel is back. eliana, let me start with you, with whether cruz is about to consolidate evangelicals and traditional conservatives that aren't with donald trump? >> one question about cruz consolidating evangelicals, he's not a traditional conservative.

his attitude on gay marriage, let each state decide. >> more libertarian. >> exactly. that's not the rick santorum or the mike huckabee attitude. i'm waiting to see how that plays out in iowa. if rick santorum gets on a debate stage with him, i think he'll expose some of that -- >> did you say if rick santorum gets on the debate stage? >> yeah. >> i don't know if that's going to happen. i've been hearing this argument that cruz is grabbing the libertarians from rand paul and some of the populist conservative movement -- populace, but as he tries to put it all together, he runs into some policy problems and that's what rubio and christie hopes they can expose. >> even in iowa, this speaks to a bit more of a tea party roots, that he's against ethanol

subsidies, subsidies for energy. this normally would be a big red flag for voters in iowa. obviously he's still doing well, but there are ways necessarily establishment republican. but i guess the company is, how do voters really care about the nitty-gritty of those issues right now? are they just really looking for a representative who seems acceptable to them as a leader of the party. and cruz is basically trying to turn himself into that acceptable alternative. >> i think cruz is going to clean house among faith-based conservatives. no question. but there's going to be a third player. there will be a conventional mainstream establishment player, and i think sooner or later, it's going to be cruz and the establishment player most like, rubi rubio. >> what's interesting with cruz, charlie, if he wins -- it will be the first time the iowa winner, who has not started out as the sort of traditional -- will have money. the last couple of times, they were accidentals. right, really -- and george w. bush ended up getting the nomination.

you have cruz with money. in this calendar, look, he's in tennessee, because he's on the march 1st date. on march 2nd, if cruz -- i'll be shocked if cruz is not the delegate leader, by a lot. >> i think iowa, new hampshire, nevada, south carolina, they're just going to cull the herd. but this is going to be a march -- this is going to be a -- >> yeah. >> yes, exactly. and that's when people are going to start making big moves. but i do believe that there's going to be -- there will be an establishment person alternative to cruz and it'sard to imagine seeing anybody other than rubio. >> i want to go quickly to these numbers we did with quinnipiac when we added up cruz, trump, and carson and it was 62%. and we added up bush, christi and rubio, it was 32%. just throw in the towel! what establishment is left? >> who are the undecideds there? >> yeah? okay. >> i think you've got a lot of people, for republican rank and file, they walked into a basket -- >> who is the rank and file --

wait a minute -- you're saying the rank and file, who are they? i don't know if we know who they are anymore. >> i think republican voters are like going into baskin robbins. they're looking at 31 flavors. they think this is awesome. this is amazing. >> that's right. >> the establishment is going crazy. >> and i think, you know, the most fascinating numbers, i think, in that quinnipiac poll were that republican voters or voters as a whole right now, they don't trust hillary clinton. they don't trust donald trump. they don't think either one of them shares their values. they don't think either one of them empathizes with their problems. they think they're strong leaders. the problem is, democrats are stuck with hillary clinton, but republicans are not yet stuck with donald trump. that's where the surveying will take place. the republicans have a chance to choose somebody who does empathize with their problems. >> i think there's a question to who the establishment and is anyone actually listening to them? ted cruz has really meant to do, he has captivated talk radio hosts. he's captivated conservative media. all of these alternative channels that beltway republican

establishment folks, they aren't necessarily tuned into, and they aren't necessarily leading the party. >> can't forget that rubio came out of the tea party. >> i know. if he's the establishment, then, you know, the outsiders have won. >> yeah. >> let's me do a quick pause here. we'll come back to talk a little bit about the year in politics. when you think about it, who did we think would be the nominee in january? hint, the guy's not even in the race anymore. we'll be right back. everywhere, every time and 2% back at the grocery store, even before they got 3% back on gas, all with no hoops to jump through, daniel, vandi, and sarah decided to use their bank americard cash rewards credit card to sweeten the holiday season. that's the spirit of rewarding connections. apply online or at a bank of america near you.

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time for "the lid." the panel is here.

eliana, susie, and charlie. think about where we were in january. in january, charlie, the candidate that everybody -- and everybody would say, who's really going to be the nominee. jeb bush was just getting in, and all of a sudden, they say, watch out for scott walker. right? and john boehner was speaker, president obama was going to be a lame duck. this whole year was totally turned upsidedown politically. >> i think in the non-outsider -- in the insider part of the republican party, we just got this unexpected vacuum. and it was bush underperforming, it was walker underperforming. it was to a certain extent, rubio early on and christie underperforming. it was just this gigantic vacuum. but it's going to get filled. politics, like nature of war, is a vacuum. there will be somebody filling that establishment void. >> but it is amazing -- susie, let's go to just president obama, where we thought he would have his year. this is going to be a crumby year for him, the republican congress, and he did successfully go around him. >> yeah. >> and he got a list of things down. and really up until paris and isis, his poll numbers were

starting to improve. right now national security is dragging him down and i don't know if he can get it back, but he had had a pretty good 10 1/2 months. >> and you notice the economy. there are a lot of weaknesses you can point out, but honestly, i think, obviously, voters' priorities have changed with isis and the paris attacks, but the economy has been improving. i mean, quite steadily under his watch. i think there's a sense in which it's sort of interesting to see such a disaffected element right now, and folks, obviously, voicing frustrations with just how far the economy needs to go, but there are a lot of ways in which things actually have been improving under his watch, and he has a number of accomplishments that he can, you know, ostensibly, pass on to the democratic nominee to run on. >> eliana, i think this goes to something we were talking about off-camera, where this phenomenon that's taking place inside the republican party is not economic. it's cultural, isn't it? >> yeah, i think a lot of the blue-collar voters who, for example, were part of bill

clinton's electoral coalition, who were not part of the obama coalition, which was really a bunch of special interest groups, cobbled together, have migrated into the republican party, and a lot of that is more class-based. >> which is, by the way, something the republican party used to hate. >> totally. >> and now there is some class warfare that's going on here. >> yeah. >> trump is a class warfare guy. >> it's funny to see, you know, a guy who is to the manner born, you know, being the representative -- >> he's mr. blue-collar. >> absolutely, absolutely. >> so the democrats are no longer the party of these blue-collar voters. the republican party has an opportunity to speak these people and their anxieties and pick them up. but a lot depends on their position on immigration, i think. >> what do you say now to people when you say, charlie, tell me who the republican nominee will be? >> rubio. >> you're sticking to your guns? >> absolutely. >> by the time it gets to march, judgment, temperament, those

will be the things people -- >> you're going to ruin our summer by saying, we won't have a contested convention? >> oh, i think we might. i think we might. >> that's what we really wanted to hear. thank you. >> that could happen. >> contested convention from charlie cook. if charlie cook says it's going to happen, take it to the bank. we'll be back tomorrow. a little more "mtp daily." erica hill picks up our coverage right now. are. on msnbc's super tuesday, the political world asking once again, has donald trump gone too far? >> where did hillary go? they had to start the debate without her! phase ii. i know where she went. it's disgusting. i don't want to talk about it. no, it's too disgusting. don't say it. it's disgusting. >> hillary clinton now hitting back at the gop front-runner for what many are calling his lowest blow yet. >> we all have to speak up and speak out