judgment, temperament, those will be the things people -- >> you're going to ruin our summer by saying, we won't have a contested convention? >> oh, i think we might. i think we might. >> that's what we really wanted to hear. thank you. >> that could happen. >> contested convention from charlie cook. if charlie cook says it's going to happen, take it to the bank. we'll be back tomorrow. a little more "mtp daily." erica hill picks up our coverage right now. are. on msnbc's super tuesday, the political world asking once again, has donald trump gone too far? >> where did hillary go? they had to start the debate without her! phase ii. i know where she went. it's disgusting. i don't want to talk about it. no, it's too disgusting. don't say it. it's disgusting. >> hillary clinton now hitting back at the gop front-runner for what many are calling his lowest blow yet. >> we all have to speak up and speak out about trying to create

an atmosphere where bullying is not appropriate. >> chris matthews is here with us ahead of his trump special that airs right here tonight. we'll talk with him in just a moment. plus, this. >> how incredible is it to have so many young, talented, dynamic republican candidates for president? >> a little birthday gift for ted cruz, by way of a new national poll. and chris christie's message to hillary clinton today, that's raising a few eyebrows. >> here's my suggestion to her. suspend your campaign, get on a plane to paris. >> good super tuesday evening to you. thanks for joining us. i'm erica hill. we begin tonight with donald trump versus hillary clinton. the jabs between the two front-runners getting increasingly personal. today, hillary clinton hit back. >> it's important to stand up to bullies wherever they are.

and why we shouldn't let anybody bully his way into the presidency. because that is not who we are as americans. >> that would certainly seem to be a reference to trump weighing in on her losing the nomination to then senator barack obama in 2008. trump is getting a lot of attention today for those comments, specifically for the word he used in that moment. we are not saying it, but we are playing this bit of sound, so that you can hear it in its full context. >> i may win, i may not win. hillary, that's not a president. that's not -- she's not taking us to the -- everything that's been involved in hillary has been losses. you take a look, even her race to obama. she was going to beat obama. i don't know who would be worse? i don't know. how does it get worse? but she was going to beat, she was favored to win, and she got schlonged. she loss. i mean, she lost. >> could remarks like that end up hurting trump? it's a question we've asked before.

in a new poll out today, 50% of americans say they would be embarrassed to have donald trump as president. but as we have seen time and again, he is holding his own and then some. that same poll also shows donald trump maintaining his lead as the gop front-runner. tonight, msnbc airs a new documentary about donald trump, following his sometimes controversial past, and the reactions he's gotten across the political spectrum. >> what do we want? tru trump! >> trump is right and americans know he's right. >> when mexico sends its people, they're bringing drugs. they're bringing crime. they're rapists. >> trump is acting in a very old and shameful american tradition. every so often, like a fever, anti-immigrant feeling arises. >> trump, i have a question -- >> excuse me. sit down. you weren't called. sit down. >> what you see is what you get. he's genuine. he's the real deal. >> and joining me now,

"hardball's" chris matthews. chris, nice to have you with us. >> thank you, erica. >> we're looking forward to seeing more of this coming up tonight, but when we talk about the comments that are getting so much air play, so much discussion today, is there really anything different in what donald trump is saying to hillary clinton, then what we've heard since his campaign launched? >> well, you know, i mean, it's -- no. it's more -- it's gotten a little worse. i think -- what was he doing about the disgusting line? what was all that about? even before he used that word. i don't know what that was about, even, that she took a bathroom break and that's disgusting? i mean, i don't know what world we're in here with that kind of talk. but, you know, he is -- he's obviously playing to the crowd. his crowd. he's a stand-up guy, he knows -- a comedian, who knows how to play to a crowd brilliant. he listens to them, sees when they laugh, tells them more. it's an interactive thing that seems to be working for him, the minority vote he's grabbing consistently. >> he is grabbing it consistently, as we see in every

poll that seems to come out. but there are also those interesting tidbits in this quinnipiac poll today, asking people whether they would be proud or embarrassed of donald trump as their president. and 50% of the people saying that he would be embarrassed. do you anticipate that having an impact at all? >> well, the hillary number is pretty high, too. 37% or so say they'd been embarrassed. i don't even know about those words. i think -- that's not good polling. i don't know what that exactly accomplishes. ask people who they want to be president and move on. i don't know what "embarrassed" means. that's a chance for somebody on the other side to take a whack at somebody they don't like politically. it's just another chance to humiliate the other candidate. if you're a liberal, progressive, a moderate, you can slap trump with that one. if you're a conservative, you can slap hillary. i'm not impressed with that kind of poll question, but i know we have it and we use it. i just don't know what it means. if you're a right-winger, you're embarrassed by any liberal being president. what does that mean? nothing. it means nothing.

>> that's a good point. to that point, there's been so much discussion about the polling this time around and how it's accurately reflecting how people feel. do you feel overall, is it giving us a true sense of where the american voter is? >> erica, it's a fascinating year, and i've been covering this business, god, a half century and i've never seen a year like this. we don't have a republican party anymore, to speak of. a real party that has leaders in it and a reasonable sort of ranking of where people stand. cruz doesn't get as much play as trump. they hate him in the republican party. they hate him personally, the people that know him, that spend time with him in a cloakroom, don't like this guy. yet here he is, as you pointed out tonight, creeping up on trump in terms of the national numbers. so to know him is not to love this guy. and i'm wondering how angry the average republican voter would choose this guy in competition with trump, and that means it's almost like half the republican votes now going to people running completely against the republican party. and that's just a fact. and so i think, the democratic

party around hillary is sort of like accepting hillary. i wouldn't say thrilled. a lot of people are, but a lot are just accepting her as the nominee in a way that the republicans used to accept nixon. hillary is playing it very carefully and her response tonight was classic. she knows how to exploit those attacks very well. and she will attack -- she will attack by calling a foul, appropriately. >> and a much different reaction than what we've seen from some of the folks on the other side. i want to play a little bit more from your documentary and talk about that. >> yeah. >> controversy didn't seem to hurt him. by mid-july, he passed the great establishment hope, jeb bush, in the polls. he was finding his audience. >> hey, i like this guy. he's saying what we're saying in the pool hall or he's saying what we're saying around the coffee in the morning. so he's tapped into something. >> i think it's both a bit of populism wab b populism, a bit of racism. it is also real. >> on july 11th, 5,000 people

showed up for a trump rally in arizona, a state at the epicenter of the nation's battle over immigration reform. >> these are people that shouldn't have been in this country. they flow in like water. >> he's playing on our aspirations to be rich, which most americans have, and he's playing on our disgust with politics as usual. and that's a pretty potent combination for him. in certain parts of the republican party. >> so, jonathan alter there used the words "a potent combination," and we see it working when we talk about those polls. it's one thing to fire people up like that, especially people who may have sort of checked out the political process over the last couple of cycles. but will that translate into votes? do you see those people going to the polls? >> erica, i don't see people abandoning him. they may go to other candidates, but what i do think is their hard is raw, the people who like him.

because he and also cruz are a rejection of the way politics have been played. if you go through the list, suppose you're a working person and you go, what have they done about trade and protecting my job, or my opportunities for my kids? what ever happened to manufacturing in the big cities or the suburbs? where are all the manufacturing jobs? all going overseas. does either party deal with the party of illegal immigration except to brand it with a nice name like undocumented workers. but nobody offers a solution to the problem of illegal immigration. in fact, they don't even accept it as a problem. what's going on? we're the only country in the world has illegal immigration and laughs at it, doesn't do anything about it. the wars we have fought. the republican party with a lot of democratic establishment support like hillary clinton march eed us into iraq. nobody was working out for the working man or woman to get dragged into that war. you look at war, trade, immigration, you look at everything and you say, who's betrayed us at the top? and it looks like the establishment has nothing to brag about. and as a result, a guy like trump can come along. if we had a healthy political

establishment, trump wouldn't have five minutes' attention. >> but chris, at the same time, he says all these things, people get riled up, they relate to what he's saying but he's not putting up a concrete plan. does it matter? >> who's riled up by what jeb says? >> no, they're not. i'm with you. but does it matter that trump is going out here and he may be tapping into what's inside, but he's not laying out a concrete plan. does that matter in 2016? >> i think of it as a rebellion against the way things are. he's said, enough. it's pretty clear he wouldn't have marched us into iraq. it's pretty clear he doesn't believe in the deal we've made over the transpacific trade deal. it's pretty clear he's not a free trader. and it's pretty clear he didn't like the iranian deal. he's much tougher on that one. i think he has, in terms of building a wall, i think that's all nonsense. i don't know if anybody believes that stuff. i'm saying there's a phenomenon

at work here. if you watch the show tonight, you're not going to see any puff piece. and the fact is, we go after him and we have a lot of voices like tom brokaw, very respected voice there. a veteran, you know, incredibly a respected person. what he has to say, i think people will remember. what john altar has to say, they'll remember. but they're also going to hear from omarosa and mike tyson and they'll hear from roger stone and people like that and ann coulter, a lot of voices that people don't like. it's kind of a cacophony. but what comes out of it is this very big, loud mouth, american tycoon, the subject of citizen caine, which turns out, was donald trump's favorite movie, it is his favorite movie. and in the same we try to peel off the onion skin and find out who the guy is. >> beyond the movie, was there anything, chris, in putting this together that really surprised you about donald trump? >> the continual skepticism about him as he's mounted his

career. from the time he was this young guy, 33 years old. wait until you see him being interviewed by tom brokaw. this young picture of him. you go, wait a minute, east been asked this same question from the beginning. is he for real? how high are his ambitions? but we've got it all tonight. the serial bankruptcies, the serial marriages, the sex discussion about best sex ever had from supposedly by marla mabels. for all i know, donald trump put that out. it's a strange brew. and by the way, the grossty of the last 24 hours is a bit gross by any standard, but what you're seeing here is a story that's kitsch and very american, like it or not. >> it is fascinating. one last question for you. do you put any stock in this idea that's being floated out there, like much like we saw for the 1980 election, these reagan democrats, are there going to be sort of trump democrats or people who have checked out, who are now being brought back in by donald trump? >> yeah, i think if you go

around where my relatives live, around south jersey, philadelphia, the suburbs with tb middle inner suburbs and we get middle, middle people, regular people, i think they're looking for a change from what they've been given. i think there's going to be a counterestablishment vote here. but again, it's going to be chopped up with people -- in this case, the east coast people, where the reagan democrats are really from, the big cities around the big cities, i would say trump will have a better shot at them. christie will get a piece of it, a small slice, but i think trump will get them. we're not going to know that answer until we have a general election, honestly, erica, because if trump makes it to the general election, that's when it will come into play, where those people do move over and vote for him, those democrats. but the primary season is pretty much run by progressives and, you know, moderate progressives, very progressive, people in the hard left. i'm not sure they're going to be the people that go to trump. >> chris matthews, great to have you with us tonight. thank you. >> tonight's special with chris matthews, citizen trump airs at 7:00 p.m. eastern, right after

this program, only on msnbc. still to come this hour, new jersey governor chris christie tells hillary clinton to suspend her presidential campaign. while he's calling for her to jump out of the race and hop on a plane to paris. plus, so many unanswered questions tonight after army sergeant bowe bergdahl was arraigned on charges of desertion and misbehavior before the enemy. will he face a court-martial or enter a plea? and happy birthday, ted cruz. it is the republican candidate's 45th birthday today. a new poll, as we mentioned, may give him an extra reason to celebrate tonight. stay with us. (vo) some call it giving back. we call it share the love. during our share the love event, get a new subaru, and we'll donate $250 to those in need. bringing our total donations to over sixty-five million dollars. and bringing love where it's needed most. love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru.

ugh! heartburn! no one burns on my watch! try alka-seltzer heartburn reliefchews. they work fast and don't taste chalky. mmm...amazing. i have heartburn. alka-seltzer heartburn reliefchews. enjoy the relief. gifts for the tech-savvy uncle. and the 5-year-old. done and done. with up to 50% off our hottest tablets, like the ellipsis 10-inch tablet for $99.99. get the best deals and the better network.

when hillary clinton hit back at donald trump today, it was part of a larger conversation about bullying in america. here's part of it, with a young girl from that event in iowa. >> what are you going to do about all this bullying? not just because of, just people who want to be mean, but mental and physical and diseases that

people have that they're able to live with every day. >> can you tell me a little bit more about why that's on your mind? >> i have asthma and occasionally i've heard people talking behind my back about not wanting to be near me because i have asthma. i mean, people, it's not contagious. >> more from the campaign trail coming up, including that call from chris christie, that hillary clinton leave the race. when heartburn hits

fight back fast tums smoothies starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue and neutralizes stomach acid at the source tum, tum, tum, tum smoothies! only from tums as americans grow increasingly concerned over the threat of terror, the 2016

candidates are laying out their plans to address those fears. hillary clinton today releasing a new ad. take a look. >> america is not just electing a president, we're also electing a commander in chief. that choice matters. because strengthening the economy, making health care more affordable, raising incomes, all of that depends on us being both secure at home and leading the world. i will get up every single day and do whatever it takes to make sure our country is safe and strong. >> that, a big change from the rather ominous ad clinton released back in 2008, asking voters who they would want to lead the country in a dangerous world. >> it's 3:00 a.m., your children are safe and asleep. but there's a phone in the white house and it's ringing. something's happening in the world. your vote will decide who answers that call. whether it's someone who already knows the world's leaders, knows the military, someone tested and

ready to lead in a dangerous world. it's 3:00 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. who do you want answering the phone? >> joining me now for pennsylvania governor and former dnc chairman, ed rendell and beth fooey, senior editor at msnbc.com. good to have both of you with us. governor, i'll start with you. what do you think hillary clinton has learned, based on those two ads, as a candidate, since 2008? >> well, actually, i thought the 2008 ad was very effective as well. it made the point, do you want an experienced leader? and no one, i don't think anybody in the field, republican or democrat, has the experience with the military and with foreign leader es that hillary clinton has. i think she's got sound judgment, she's strong when she has to be strong, she knows when to negotiate. i think her experience sun rivalled and she's smart to keep pushing that in every way she can. >> you know republicans are

going to hit back. i can expect benghazi will be brought up to counter what you said, governor. >> sure. the republicans will hit back in so many different ways, but hillary clinton has successes. i mean, henry kissing said, and henry kissinger, last time i check, he said that hillary clinton ran the best state department he has seen in his lifetime. that's henry kissinger. >> beth, as we look at these two ads and see where hillary clinton has come as a candidate, do you see her playing this race differently? and is it more effective in any way? >> a little bit. the 2008 ad was specifically targeted against now president obama suggesting that then senator obama did not have the national security credentials or experience to handle a dangerous world. the new ad you played is much more geared towards bernie sanders. she doesn't talk about him much on the campaign trail, but she's going right at his message about economic inequality and economic insecurity. she's saying, she acknowledges

there's economic inequality out there, people are nervous about the economy, but the way to get that stability is to have a safer world and she is the person to do that. >> national security and terrorism and job creation and economic growth are the two most important issues to voters, as we know. is it more effective to go after that from an economic standpoint, as opposed to what we've talked to much about in the last month or two. >> she's definitely got an advantage over bernie sanders, obviously, because of her four years as secretary of state. however, some people feel the economy isn't working for them, she's too close to banks. this is her way of wrapping those two issues together, saying, look, i'm really strong on national security, and that's what's going to keep you economically stable as well. >> governor, there is the concern, and we saw it, of course, at the end of last week, just before the debate, when there was this data breach. there are many people who feel that there is too much support, almost, behind hillary clinton, before she has won the nomination. how do you counter that?

how do you reassure voters that, in fact, it is not all about hillary clinton, that there is still room to discuss other candidates? >> well, i think that's where bernie sanders is going to prove valuable to the democratic party nomination. he's touched a nerve with a lot of voters. he's certainly a factor in iowa and new hampshire. so this is not a coronation. hillary clinton will have to work hard. she has worked hard in iowa and new hampshire and every state up until the middle of march, i think this is going to be a real dogfight. i don't think we'll have to worry about any coronation. bernie sanders has taken care of that. and martin o'malley, like, he was on steroids in the last debate, he was going after everyone. so i don't think that's a fear this time. >> hillary clinton speaking out a little bit directly today. we didn't hear a lot, initially, but we heard from some folks in her camp and from hillary clinton directly about some of these comments from donald trump. chris christie also speaking out today, saying that she should suspend the campaign, get on a

plane, go to paris in response to her comments on isis. how effective is it for hillary clinton to hit back specifically at those comments? >> i think they were pretty smart to stay out of the donald trump controversy. there's just nothing that they can really say and it is going to remind everybody that she's looking like the statesman-like grown-up here, while he's throwing these very gendered and frankly, disgusting cracks at her. on the other subject, on chris christie going after her, over her comments on isis. i have to say, i was at the debate on saturday night when former secretary clinton said what she said, which is, we are on the right path, essentially, to combatting isis. we all looked at each other and knew this was a gaffe. we've had these attacks in san bernardino and paris. that was not something she should have said. jeb bush was right out of the gate tweeting about that within minutes. we knew republicans were going to pick up on it. we'll see whether it continues to resonate. >> governor, how much of a gaffe do you think that was? >> i don't think it's going to be a major factor, as we go down the road.

and as for governor christie, i've looked at the iowa polls and it looks like he suspended his campaign. >> we are going to leave it there for now. former pennsylvania governor, former dnc chair, ed rendell. beth fooey from msnbc, appreciate you both being with us. thank you. >> thanks. still to come tonight, army sergeant bowe bergdahl in court on charges of desertion and misbehavior with the enemy. what kind of prison sentence could he face if convicted. and is ted cruz becoming a real threat to donald trump? a new poll has people talking. stay with us.

when cigarette cravings hit, all i can think about is getting relief. only nicorette mini has a patented fast-dissolving formula. it starts to relieve sudden cravings fast. i never know when i'll need relief. that's why i only choose nicorette mini.

ugh! heartburn! no one burns on my watch! try alka-seltzer heartburn reliefchews. they work fast and don't taste chalky. mmm...amazing. i have heartburn. alka-seltzer heartburn reliefchews. enjoy the relief.

army sergeant bowe bergdahl was arraigned today on charges of desertion and misbehavior in front of the enemy. the hearing was held at a military trial at ft. bragg. he did not enter a plea and he deferred a decision about whether he wants to face a court-martial before a judge or a jury. bergdahl left his post in afghanistan in 2009 and us with captured by the taliban and held

prisoner. he was freed last year in a prisoner swap. for more on the case, i'm joined by colonel jack jacobs, a medal of honor recipient and an msnbc military analyst. colonel jack, always good to see you. >> good to see you. >> as we look at what happened today. and of course, we can't talk about this without talking about the serial podcast that just came out with sergeant bowe bergdahl, in that podcast, he said he didn't want to do a plea deal, because he wants to tell his side of the story. is that surprising at all? >> well, not from him, because i think making those podcasts is ill advised. if he was under advice from counsel, counsel probably told him not to do something like that. he effectively confessed and it's going to be difficult to talk his way out of that. i don't think he's going to be throwing himself on the sympathy of the court in any case. but it doesn't mean that a plea deal is not out of the question. interestingly, in the military establishment, you can do a plea

deal, and the judge does not know what the deal is. you plead guilty to whatever charges you're going to plead guilty to, and you get the lesser of what the judge gives you or what's in your plea deal. so it's in his best interests to do a deal. >> but you said he likely won't, because one thing he wants to avoid is a bad conduct discharge. >> yeah. it's a pre-trial agreement, a pta, which mean it's an agreement, which means there's negotiation and discussion, and what he's going to try to do is whatever he can, i think, to avoid as much jail time as he possibly can, and most important, to not get a bad conduct discharge. we'll see what happens. >> he interestingly also deferred this decision as to whether he wants to face a judge alone or a jury trial. give us a sense, is there one option that you would see as preferable for him? >> he's probably going to be advised to take the judge alone. because the panel, the jury, is

going to consist of, officers and if he wants, enlisted men. my guess is, all of whom have been deployed. and probably none of whom have very much sympathy for him. a judge on the other hand is probably going to be, if there's any sympathy, it's going to come from the judge. he's probably going to be advised to take the judge alone, in his circumstances, especially since, like i said, he's already confessed on the matter. >> there was some surprise when this was, in fact, recommended for court-martial. were you surprised at all when that happened? >> no, not at all. i think there are lots of people who are -- who served in combat. who would be very distressed if this thing did not go to court-martial, if he got off scot-free. it looked like he was getting off scot-free in the beginning, when he came back as a result of five very bad people getting released by the president.

i think that the establishment would like to -- is convinced that it needs to extract whatever it's going to extract from him, insofar as he has left his buddies in the lurch in the middle of a combat zone. among the worst possible things you can do. it's -- if you talk to anybody who's spent anytime in combat, with no more information than what you told them, they would think that he's a reprehensible creature. no, not surprised at all. >> colonel jack jacobs, always good to see you. >> you too. ahead on this super tuesday, new poll numbers tonight reveal an emerging story line in the republican race. should donald trump be concerned? and then, it's christmas in july, in december. we'll fill you in on the historic weather headed our way for the holiday. will anyone see snow? plus, the world's largest lotto jackpot. this one, truly, takes a village. at&t knows the best kind of holiday... is the kind where everyone gets what they wished for.

make this holiday extra happy when you buy one get one free on our most popular smartphones... like the samsung galaxy s6. buy one get one free. so spread some cheer. and capture every minute of it. right now at at&t, buy one get one free on our most popular smartphones. the first gummy multivitamin... ...from centrum. a complete, and tasty way to support... ...your energy... ...immunity... and metabolism like never before. centrum multigummies. see gummies in a whole new light. i use what's already inside me to reach my goals. so i liked when my doctor told me i may reach my blood sugar and a1c goals by activating what's within me. with once-weekly trulicity. trulicity is not insulin. it helps activate my body to do what it's supposed to do

release its own insulin. trulicity responds when my blood sugar rises. i take it once a week, and it works 24/7. it comes in an easy-to-use pen and i may even lose a little weight. trulicity is a once-weekly injectable prescription medicine to improve blood sugar in adults with type 2 diabetes. it should be used along with diet and exercise. trulicity is not recommended as the first medicine to treat diabetes and should not be used by people with severe stomach or intestinal problems, or people with type i diabetes or diabetic ketoacidosis. trulicity is not insulin and has not been studied with long-acting insulin. do not take trulicity if you or anyone in your family has had medullary thyroid cancer or multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2 or if you are allergic to trulicity or its ingredients. stop using trulicity and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of an allergic reaction, such as itching, rash, or difficulty breathing; if you have signs of pancreatitis such as severe stomach pain that will not go away and may move to your back, with or without vomiting; or if you have symptoms of thyroid cancer,

which may include a lump or swelling in your neck, hoarseness, trouble swallowing, or shortness of breath. medicines like trulicity may cause stomach problems, which could be severe. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and any medicines you take. taking trulicity with a sulfonylurea or insulin may increase your risk for low blood sugar. common side effects include nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, decreased appetite, and indigestion. some side effects can lead to dehydration, which may cause kidney failure. with trulicity, i click to activate what's within me. if you want help improving your a1c and blood sugar numbers with a non-insulin option, ask your doctor about once-weekly trulicity. and click to activate your within. chuck, i know i have a 798 fico score, thanks to experian.com. kaboom... get your credit swagger on. go to experian.com. become a member of experian credit tracker and take charge of your score.

as wave mentioned, today is senator ted cruz's birthday. and there's a lot of talk about the latest 2016 polling and whether or not it's a nice little birthday gift for him. those new numbers from quinnipiac show donald trump maintaining his lead, with 28% of the vote, as you can see there. but look at who is in second. ted cruz, just four points behind trump. no other candidate in that polling tops 12%. and there's an interesting bit of information about the people who are backing these top two republicans. 36% of those who support cruz say their mind is made up, he's their guy. but, look, there is some room for others to change. about two-thirds. those numbers are flipped when we look at donald trump. two-thirds of them, almost, say their mind is made up. trump is their man. 36% say they're not totally sold. cruz talked about the competition between the two today. >> i did think it was interesting that donald trump said a couple of days ago that he thinks this race will come down to him and me. i think donald may well be right. i think that he could easily end

up being a two-man race. between donald trump and me. and i think that presents a good choice to the american people. >> joining me now, ken vogel from politico and aaron mcpike. aaron, ladies first. is it too soon to say that or could we be looking at a two-man race. >> we've been hearing for from a number of political strategists, it could be a two-man race, between marco rubio and ted cruz. but as ted cruz and trump have pointed out, it could be between trump and cruz. i was out with cruz over the weekend and his crowds are huge. they're not the size of donald trump's yet, but the kind of support that he's getting, every sentence gets cheers, it gets applause, it gets laughter. his audiences hang on his every word. and you can see that at the events. he's doing really well. he's been building up support, a

pretty big infrastructure throughout the country. since he launched his campaign in march, and at this point, he's -- he's just really identifying with these voters, and they seem to love him. >> identifying with them. they seem to love him, which is sort of what we're hearing about trump, two, but on two very different levels. ken, what is it about these cruz supporters at these rallies. where is he connecting with them versus where trump is connecting with his supporters. >> he's actually leading trump among evangelical voters, folks who identify as part of the republican party. so that's encouraging for him. additionally encouraging for him in this poll is the fact that he leads hillary clinton in a head-to-head matchup, where both hillary clinton and bernie sanders lead donald trump in head-to-head matchups. that has to give him and his supporters some confidence that as some of these folks who have not yet made up their minds start to focus a little bit

more, actually head to the iowa caucuses, head to the polls in new hampshire, they'll be thinking with a little bit more of an eye toward the general election, and maybe cruz figures better in that analysis, because he's the one who does better against hillary clinton. >> in terms of those head-to-heads, how much is the republican establishment now looking at those numbers and saying, we do need to start, perhaps, putting more support behind ted cruz? >> well, the republican establishment in washington does not like ted cruz at all. the problem with that is, here in washington, what you hear from republicans is entirely different from what you hear from republicans throughout the rest of the country, that's including in new hampshire. and so, yes, the republican establishment wants to coalesce behind a candidate, but that candidate is looking like marco rubio, not ted cruz. and we're starting to see efforts in place by some republican establishment types that want to take down cruz. there's going to be a new ad buy in iowa, a small one, but trying

to take ted cruz's lead away. the problem with that is, ted cruz has been defining himself so well throughout this year, and it's maybe a little too late to try to take away some of his support. >> which is interesting, a little bit too late. especially as, we're, what, 40 days now from iowa, if the math is correct. it could be too late on that front, but just in terms of the fact that we could get to this point and that those folks wouldn't realize that among this huge field in the republican side, there are going to be some changes in the way things are done. >> yeah, absolutely, erica. and, you know, again, this poll shows six in ten voters, republican voters, undecided. so there is still some fluidity. erin is right that ted cruz has done a good job at getting out front and positioning himself. this is why when we were all wondering, why doesn't ted cruz take on donald trump directly? this is why. they're both speaking to similar sentiments within the republican base and ted cruz is well positioned to take advantage, if

these republicans, members of the republican establishment, finally get together and take on donald trump, while we're talking about them potentially rallying and taking on ted cruz. the one that they're most concerned about is donald trump. they all seem to agree that it would be wise for someone to take him on. they just can't agree on who. they all want it to be someone else, because as jeb bush has shown, there is some risk is going after the donald. >> we see these are the two candidates who are not criticizing one another, erin, and they are the ones doing best in the polls. >> and i think there's certainly something to that. ted cruz and marco rubio are also going at it. people are starting to say marco rubio is beginning to surge, but the quinnipiac poll you just showed shows that ted cruz is doubling up on marco rubio and he's not really taking off, he's inching up a little bit. but in this fight in immigration between those two, i don't see how ted cruz doesn't walk away from that stronger.

i don't think it's a fight that marco rubio should have taken on. he's got other things he can attack ted cruz before, but i think this will end up hurting marco rubio more than anything. >> how much of a break do you think we'll see anyone take over this week or next ten of the holiday break. >> whether we see them in iowa, and the idea there was going to be a break came from iowa, where "the des moines register" looked at their schedules and saw, hey, there aren't that many events over the week between christmas and new year's, i think they'll still be rather vigorously campaigning, working the phones, calling donors, wishing them happy holidays, meeting with their strategist, maybe there's a little bit of a recouping and sort of retrenchment, but there's no break. >> no break. i'm sure we'll see plenty of it, too, on social media, if we don't see them pop up on the tv. ken fogle and erin pike, thank you both. developing news in the case of sandra bland. the prosecutor says no indictment for jail officials in her death.

that may not be, however, the end of the case. with christmas just days away, guns are topping many wish lists this year. we'll take a look at the rise in sales, next. i absolutely love my new but the rent is outrageous. good thing geico offers affordable renters insurance. with great coverage it protects my personal belongings should they get damaged, stolen or destroyed. [doorbell] uh, excuse me. delivery. hey. lo mein, szechwan chicken, chopsticks, soy sauce and you got some fortune cookies. have a good one. ah, these small new york apartments... protect your belongings. let geico help you with renters insurance.

it's a really big deal. and with fever, aches, and chills, mom knows it needs a big solution: an antiviral. don't kid around with the flu, call your doctor within the first 48 hours of symptoms and ask about prescription tamiflu. attack the flu virus at its source with tamiflu, an antiviral that helps stop it from spreading in the body. tamiflu in liquid form is fda approved to treat the flu in people two weeks of age and older whose flu symptoms started within the last two days. before taking tamiflu tell your doctor if you're pregnant, nursing, have serious health conditions, or take other medicines. if you develop an allergic reaction, a severe rash,

or signs of unusual behavior, stop taking tamiflu and call your doctor immediately. children and adolescents in particular may be at an increased risk of seizures, confusion, or abnormal behavior. the most common side effects are mild to moderate nausea and vomiting. anti-flu? go antiviral with tamiflu. want bladder leak underwear that try always discreet underwear and move, groove, wiggle, giggle, swerve, curve. lift, shift, ride, glide, hit your stride. only always discreet underwear has soft dual leak guard barriers to help stop leaks where they happen most and a discreet fit that hugs your curves, you barely feel it. always discreet underwear so bladder leaks can feel like no big deal. because hey, pee happens. get your free pair and valuable coupons at always discreet.com so don't trust your smile to any regular toothpaste. improved crest 3d white brilliance removes 5 times more stains than the red box.

try the whole collection for a smile that gets you noticed. the french police reportedly thwarted a terrorist attack last week southwest of paris. authorities say that foiled plot targeted soldiers, police, and representatives of the state. two french citizens in their 20s were arrested over the weekend. officials say they were in contact with people in syria.

a special prosecutor who investigated the death of sandra bland now says he wants to meet with her family, to, quote, answer every question they have. a grand jury decided not to indict any county jail employees after the 28-year-old was discovered in a cell over the summer, discovered dead, three days after being arrested during a traffic stop. bland's family has complained they were shut out of the investigation. the grand jury will return after the holidays to decide whether anyone else involved should face charges. a new poll shows support of legal abortion is on the rise in this country. 76% of democrats believe abortion should be made legal. that's up seven points from january of this year. republicans' support, meantime, edged five points higher to 40%. the same polling reveals 58% of americans support legal abortion. it is at its highest level in the last two years. the associated press poll is the first national poll on abortion to be taken since the deadly shootings at a planned parenthood clinic in november.

there are more details emerging tonight about a shooting at a new york mall. police say 67-year-old employee was shot following a potential robbery today inside a jewelry store. it all happened at a packed mall on new york's long island. the victim is listed in serious, but stable condition. the shooting suspect now in police custody. terrorism fears, meantime, are helping to drive gun sales this holiday season. recent figures from the fbi reveal more than 2 million firearm background checks were conducted in november. that's a 24% spike from the same time last year. roughly 185,000 background checks were processed by the agency on black friday alone. the search follows the november 13th paris terror attacks. don't bet on a white christmas in much of the united states. in fact, far from it. temperatures -- rolook at this map -- will be 30 degrees above average for much of the east. these are the predictions for

christmas morning. by afternoon, temperatures in cities like atlanta will be near 80 degrees. here in new york, as we show you the tree just outside our studios at rockefeller center, you can expect those temperatures to approach 70. as we like to say, perfect ice skating weather. this year, santa is spreading a bit more holiday cheer in spain. the country of 46 million just held its annual christmas lottery. it's known as el gordo, or, the fat one. it carries prizes that are, indeed, fact. a combined $2.4 billion. the official lottery dates back to 1812. it's designed so no one person can scoop up the jackpot. the associated press reports the winning numbers today appeared on roughly 1,600 tickets. each one of them worth more than $400,000. just ahead, the heart of the gop unsure about donald trump. what conservative talk radio hosts like reaugh rag andgren beck are now saying about the front-runner. can trump be trump and win over these conservative radio hosts? stay tuned. that's next. ♪

(vo) some call it giving back. we call it share the love. during our share the love event, get a new subaru, and we'll donate $250 to those in need. bringing our total donations to over sixty-five million dollars. and bringing love where it's needed most. love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru.

tand that's what we're doings to chat xfinity.rself, we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. coming up, conservatives begin to turn on trump, with conservative radio at the heart of the gop base, it's a no-brainer for candidates to stay in the hosts' good graces. but in true trump fashion, this candidate plays by his own rules. could it hurt him? that's next.

they come into this iworld ugly and messy. ideas are frightening because they threaten what is known. they are the natural born enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary, and messy and fragile.

but under the proper care, they become something beautiful. whfight back fastts tums smoothies starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue and neutralizes stomach acid at the source tum, tum, tum, tum smoothies! only from tums every day, millions of americans tune in to conservative talk radio. and while donald trump is dominating the polls, some

prominent radio hosts seem to be focused on a different candidate lately. >> it's disappointing to hear trump hit cruz the same way that the republican establishment hits cruz and the same way that the media hits cruz and -- you know, this is a big deal to me. >> i think my friend, donald trump, really screwed up this weekend. big-time! actually, we agree with what ted cruz has done with mcconnell and the senate. we despise the republican establishment. >> if they put donald trump -- try to put him in office, if that's what the people want, you're going to see an end to the republican party. it will just be over. there will just be nothing left. >> before i let you go, who do you like? >> ted cruz. >> joining me now, two nationally syndicated talk show hosts, bill press and michael medved. we just heard glenn beck say there, the end to the republican party.

that seems a little strong, but maybe not, michael. >> it's very strong. the republican party controls 31 governorships. we control a majority of the house and the senate. biggest majorities in recent history. and, in fact, in over 100 years. so, look, the republican party is not on death's door. would it be disaster for republicans if trump is the nominee? it would. would we be at risk of losing the senate and losing the house and losing all up and down the ticket? we would. the problem with trump is the unpredictability in harming our own cause. he had a terrific issue with hillary clinton, with her ming that he was an isis propagandist and he was demanding an apology and he had her on the ropes and all of a sudden he changes the subject to attack her on her bathroom break. this is not a smart political move. i mean, there are many reasons to attack hillary, but her need to go to the bathroom is not disgusting and not outrageous. >> is ted cruz, bill, a better

candidate? for the republican party. >> well, let me put it this way. and first, i think there are two things going on. michael is absolutely right. a lot of republicans say, gee, this trump looks like he could be in for the long haul. and if he were with the nominee, we could -- because of all the disgusting things he says, he can't control himself. we could end up losing the whole board. we could end up losing not just the white house, but the senate and the house as well. and that's starting to unnerve some people. secondly, i think people are starting to say, you know, we really can't trust donald trump. when you look at where -- in terms of conservatives, trusting him. when you look at where he stands on the issues, remember the last debate? he started the last debate by saying, if only we had spent that $4.5 or $5 trillion that we spent in iraq and afghanistan, back here at home, on building our roads and building new parks and new schools and everything, he almost sounded like a democrat. donald trump says, we should let the supreme court's decision on same-sex marriage last and not challenge it.

donald trump says, we should restore relations with cuba. you'll never hear a ted cruz saying those things. ted cruz is definitely a true believer, and i think more and more republicans -- and michael knows that field better than i, but i think they're seeing, you know, we better not take a chance with trump. lindsey graham said it best, i think. he said, i would rather lose with somebody else than try to win with donald trump. >> how important, michael, how important is the support of those in conservative talk radio? there are millions of listeners out there. >> there are, about 20% of americans use conservative talk radio as their principle source of views and news. and i'm very grateful to all my listeners. but i've got to tell you that really talk radiocializes in just a little corner of the republican party. if you actually look at the polling, more republicans describe themselves as moderat and liberal than as very

conservative. and we need a candidate who is not ted cruz, who also appeals really to a fringe in the republican party. i call him shut down teddy on my show. and the shutdown was not popular. it didn't work. it was a failed strategy. and the idea that cruz is going to be a new front-runner. i actually think that a choice between cruz and trump is a little bit like a choice between aids and cancer. and i'm a recent cancer survivor. it's a disaster for our party either way. >> so who is a good choice? >> we have amazing candidates like marco rubio and chris christie, who could actually help to unite the party. >> bill, do you get the sense that donald trump is starting to understand this? he's even backed off a little bit off ted cruz, at one point saying that mark levin and rush limbaugh, so nice to me, he's almost backing off. is he getting the message? >> put it this way. i do think the "maniac" comment about ted cruz, he realizes, to the extent that donald trump ever, ever would acknowledge that he made a mistake, i think he recognizes that was a

mistake, but i don't think he's going to change his brand at all. and you know, i'm glad to hear michael say that i think the choice between cruz and trump is not necessarily what the republican party is looking for. and a lot of republicans, that's why they're looking at particularly marco rubio, and i'm telling you, still, maybe, maybe, maybe, some da jeb bush. >> maybe jeb bush? >> i don't think he's totally out of it at all. >> i agree with bill. bush showed a fighting spirit at the last debate, which was new and it was refreshing. and really, when it comes right down to it, one of the things in this new quinnipiac poll that everybody is paying attention to, it shows that americans by a ratio of 50 to 23 would be embarrassed rather than proud to have a donald trump president. jeb bush has led the kind of life and is the kind of decent guy, as isubio and as is christie, who i believe americans could be proud of. and would want to put his

picture on their wall. i don't know a lot of people who want to put a donald trump picture on our walls. >> we'll have to leave it there, gentleman. you can learn a lot more about donald trump coming up right here on msnbc. thank you for watching msnbc live. i'm erica hill. tonight's special with chris matthews, "citizen trump" is up next. who do we want?! >> trump! >> when do we want him? >> now! >> trump is right and americans know he's right. >> when mexico sends its people, they're bringing drug, they're bringing crime. they're rapists. >> trump is acting in a very old and shameful american tradition. every so often, like a fever, anti-immigrant feeling arises. >> i have -- >> excuse me, sit down. you weren't called. sit down. >> what you see is what you get. he's genuine. he's the real deal. >> he has tapped into