>> will presidential election year 2016 be a year of growth or uncertainty for small business owners? and the hottest small business trend of 2015, the rise of the on demand economy, a look back and ahead with lots of advice coming up next on "your business." >> american express open can help you take on a new job, or fill a big order, or expand your office. for those who constantly find new ways to grow on every step of the journey american express open proudly presents "your business" on msnbc.

hi everyone. i'm jj ramberg. welcome to "your business", the show dedicated to helping your small business grow. as 2015 comes to a close the story that has come to define small bills is the growth of the on demand economy and the shift in the way consumers expect to buy almost anything any time with the tap of a button. that is trickling down to an industry that until now has been difficult to connect with. we're talking about home services. >> just about anything you can think of is available on demand these days. massages, dog walkers, house rentals, and of course a car to

take you anywhere you need to go. it's uber proves anything it's that consumers like what they want when they want it. that's a revolutionary idea for the $400 billion home services. >> online booking is going to be the future of home services. it's happened in other categories, this is where consumer preference is going. >> how does an industry made up of millions of small businesses like plumbers and contractors with their own ways of doing things tap into this. >> homeowners wanted to find information. now they want to be able to engage more deeply through the digital platform than picking up the phone they can go ahead and see their availability, their calendar action choose a time, book the appointment to get the service done. >> when cheryl needed some drywall work done in her denver home she wanted a contractor she could trust, at a fair price that was available to do the job

right away. >> i've come to rely on the technology that's available now. and yes, it happened quickly. i wanted it to get done. >> she found mary's company, rh drywall through home adviser, a portal to find service professionals with a good track record. >> i thought it was a great way to get some reputable company to come in and do a job without me having to worry if they are going to show up. >> on the flip side of this is mary hugman. she's a small business owner looking for a reliable customer that was ready to start a project right away. cheryl, the homeowner, used the service for free. mary, the business owner, pays for the new customer lead from home adviser. so consumers connect quickly with a contractor to get the work done. >> what would have taken maybe a couple days and a bunch of calls now takes a couple of minutes and mouse clicks. >> mary relies on the service not only for the lead but more

importantly for the technology that enables her business to connect with customers at lightning speed. >> businesses that are antiquated in the way that they are not moving forward will probably fall off the cliff and you know, essentially close their doors just because everything's so instant. they are attached to phones, to technology so we had to move in that direction as well. >> for small business owners contracting with a lead generation company is nothing new. what is new is that uberization of our economy where consumers expect to find products and now services with a high degree of speed and predictability. this is where company likes home adviser, thumbtack and amazon services come in. not only doing the match making it navigates making appointments. the homeowners concede they are moving forward on their project

and professionals can focus on doing the work instead of getting the work. >> instant gratification is the name of the game. i think it's a good opportunity for people to get what they need and as a contractor in this business i get what i need, and makes it efficient and does cut out a lot of the red tape. >> chris's plumbing business is only a year old. he says between 85 and 95% of his revenue is from the work through the multiple lead generation portal he uses. >> for companies in their infancy it's probably crucial. word of mouth can take years. if you're not doing this you're not going to make it. >> there is no way that i can foresee anybody being able to start a business without getting into this new technology of instantly connecting with the customers. there is no way. >> and keith should know. he suffered the ups and downs of the economy when he started his

business a and k garage service when the construction industry was hit hard. back then he was one of those that thought yellow pages ad might offer traction but the phone never rang. >> the ball game changes. you got to stay on top of it. i don't know a lot about computers and marketing and stuff. i work on garage doors. >> he learned quickly. his smart phone is the key to running his business in the field. on this day his lead matched himd up with leeona. >> i knew i was getting a squeaky thing. i put in that i needed repair or just adjustments. and then home adviser starts sending me names and people that are available immediately to come and do the work. so i picked out a and k, keith, the garage guy that came, because he seemed to have a good like over 200 referrals and said

they had a good price. sure enough, he called me back and came out. >> i think it's extremely convenient. it works great. it's less work, less hassle. i feel good about it. i can connect with the customer right away. they're happy they are going to get their problem resolved. >> the on demand economy was one of the more positive developments for small business in 2015, along with anp tick in hiring. but as the year comes to a close optimism is waning. the index was down 1.3 points to 94.8 in november. with big worries over government regulations and taxes, and a presidential election in 2016 is adding to uncertainty. bill is the chief economist at the nfib and brian the chairman of new york angels, a group that invested more than $100 million

in more than 100 early stage companies g. to see you both. >> hi, jj. >> bill, what number year is this for us? five? >> at least. at least five. >> i want to start with the fed, the actions of the fed because it's the end of the year that's moving into 2016. bill, how do you think that's going to affect small business? >> well, not a whole lot right at the moment. after all, everybody's already got their low interest loan as a banker, a little banker, a community banker, we've been making loans all right but they are low interest, so the people that have their loans aren't going to be impacted for a while unless they have got one tied to a variable rate. so that will be okay. what we're looking for really is a positive impact. we're hoping that the fed making some statement about their view of the economy, how much better it can be will encourage more of our owners to get busy and expand their business. and unfortunately they did so long i'm not sure they didn't

lose most of that message. >> i don't think the small businesses are that dependent on those numbers any more. i think they gloss over them, they are sort of economist numbers. they are out understanding their customers more than ever. i think they are not interested in being coddled by government. i think the smart businesses t people you talk to on this show are the ones more in control of their businesses and they will factor in any changes that take place like that. that will be built into their business plans and they will continue to prosper. >> it's not big enough of a move to affect loans in any significant way. or borrowing. >> right. >> so i know that bill, his reports say and sis survey says optimism is down. what do you see? >> there are two worlds. i live in an urban economy. urban economy is driven by optimism. almost to a syrupy extent. everybody deceives themselves a little to believe they are going to be the ones to make it.

and that's kind of good because then they actually drive themselves to reach heights that most of the time they would never have set. so in an urban environment like here in new york city, there is no failure. it's the old line, it's not an option. unfortunately, in other parts of the country that aren't urban they don't have that same energy level that drives a lot of the urban environment to believe more optimistically. >> are you optimistic? >> really optimistic. always. i think smart companies will recognize there are smart consumers and figure out how to find them and support them. in a mobile environment where engagement and facilitation is a critical factor i saw a hair dressing company open in mine gym. that's where the customer is. so there's always customers. yes, there is a balance sheet. it has taxes and all of dpoft issues. but a smart company who is in control will figure out how to

succeed. >> what do you think, bill? what are people feeling about next year? >> you pointed out our sentiment level has been falling. the 40 year average is 98. we're below that. we've never gotten above the average in this whole expansion. and brian's right about customers, they are out there, we get 3 million more people every year, 3 million more haircuts or something. small businesses like he looks at and invests in, some of those will grow quick pli and create lots of jobs and most of them don't grow. they multiply. you get more barber shop, not bigger ones. that's out there. you look at consumer spending over this expansion, about 1.5% a year, about half the rate it did before so overall we don't have enough customers, that's why small businesses aren't expanding their operations, aren't investing in capital equipment. >> you feel people are simply

cautious or are they -- not spending, not investing? >> well, the university of i. index of course is falling as well so consumers are still kind of pessimistic. many more of them think government policy is bad rather than good according to the michigan index. we see the same thing in the small business sector. we ask people is it a good time to expand or not, 10% said yes, that's low, 55% said no. most say no because the economy is not bad but the second most frequently cited reason for not expanding is the political climate. that's the uncertainty. that's the real enemy of growth. >> well, no, i think small business is tuning out a lot of this economic analysis and sentiment. those companies that are listening too much to the stuff are not -- not sure what it means and say well, i don't really care anymore what those people tell me.

>> the election, what should we be looking for to hear from the candidates next year? we're going to be deep into it next year. >> well, the things that small business owners care about, you know, we talked about they care about health care cost, uncertainty about the economy and government policy. it was nice with expensing, that would be good for them, nice to see that. and of course energy costs and the cost of regulation and red tape, they'd like to hear people tell them how they are going to deal with those. those are weighing down the small business sector and slowing the economic growth and that's what we need to fix. >> what do you think we need to listen to? >> we always deal with fud, that uncertainty and doubt. the candidates now seem to talk more gibberish. i can't even grab onto what they think or believe in. i tell everybody, i got back from europe, to ignore government and just move forward and build your business and satisfy your customers.

>> that's a great answer from both of you guys. so nice to see you, indeed we'll be doing this again the end of 2016, i wish you both happy holidays, happy new year. >> and to you, jj. thank you. the biggest problem with running a seasonal business is that it's a seasonal business. that means you have months with no revenue coming in. not to mention you have to lay off good employees you trained and trusted. we recently met the owner of a lawn care company who solved this. he used to shut down during the winter. now he's just taking his staff and refocused that by buying into a franchise focused on the holidays. >> it is the number one best investment we made for our company. >> year after year arnie was having the same problem, he had to pay 12 months of bills while doing only about nine months of work. with high costs and no money

coming in, running landscaping company in spencer, massachusetts, was a bit nerve-racki nerve-racking. he found a holiday solution. the company invested in a fran dhis, christmas decor was a way to cover his seasonal gap. >> you start decorating around the beginning of december and you'll fill in that at least that time period and take down and we should possibly be able to fill four to six weeks. >> brandon is the president of christmas decor. >> we help seasonal companies operate during the wintertime. we go out to homes, design display, install them, maintain them, take them down at the end of the year. >> he understood the tight spot arnie found himself in, problems like employee retention were bad for business. >> train all of these individuals and it's not easy for them personally to be laid off year to year. sometimes you lose them because they find a full-time job.

>> christmas decor was started in 1986 in hopes of making the decision to run year-round easier for seasonal business owners. while anyone cannon an owner operations are the best zblixt they have trucks, trailers, most of the equipment they need, they have employees used to working outdoors. >> from the day it began franchising in 1996 the brand has grown. >> we have 270 owners and cover 375 markets in the u.s. and canada. >> one of the reasons arnie stayed with the company is the amount of support he gets from the home office in texas. >> if you have an issue, whether it be a question from a client, a product that they may request or thing likes that, you're able to pick up the phone, reach out to christmas decor and it's taken care of. >> owners are required to take part in seminars about safety and it makes an early investment like lights to make sure the owners have access to the supplies they need.

>> we negotiate with manufacturers, bring them to our facility and distribute out of there. we step out early in the year, january, february, a lot of times we pay for this in advance. so we operate as a closed network, we make the investment so that the franchisees don't have to. >> purchasing decorations is just part of the agreement. owners pay royalties and invited to attend events. >> it's a 5% royalty. we do a 1% ad fund we use for branding throughout the country, administration of website, public relations. we have an annual conference which is a great networking opportunity but has quite a bit of education. >> yes, this is a seasonal franchise but it's grown in some unexpected ways. some decorations are now going up months before christmas. >> the last five years we've been starting the first part of october. this year we actually went a little bit into september. >> we first got into this, we expected to see this business

model that was on the shelf that you could pull off the shelf and operate during the fall. but the client wants to engage earlier. >> as a result, two things happened. arnie has a sales rep dedicated solely to the franchise and he usually has to hire more help in the fall. even though the number of crews no longer fluctuates. >> we use the employees that are on the landscaping year-round and we'll work them into the christmas part of the business. and we'll actually use the other help that will come along to help us in the fall cleanup and closing up the landscaping side. >> christmas decor may have taken on a more prominent role in arnie's business, but he says the original landscaping name gets top billing. >> we are 15, 16 years later with the christmas decor brand. a lot of people recognize our company by associating the brand with the logo on all of our vehicles and trailers they now understand that they are working with a quality company. >> brandon says that's the way

it should be. >> when we come back, retailers dread it around this time of year. we let you know how to deal with the onslaught of returns and exchanges while keeping customers happy. we ratz our glass in a non-alcoholic toast as the fourth jenner's owner of a business gives us great advice on succession plans in learning from the pros. our cosmetics line was a hit. the orders were rushing in. i could feel our deadlines racing towards us. we didn't need a loan. we needed short-term funding fast. building 18 homes in 4 ½ months? that was a leap. but i knew i could rely on american express to help me buy those building materials. amex helped me buy the inventory i needed.

our amex helped us fill the orders. just like that. another step on the journey. will you be ready when growth presents itself? realize your buying power at open.com >> a group shot from heather and her staff at the reflections of youth salon in fairfax, virginia. looks like we got the team in there. now we want to see your selfie in the new year. pick up your cell phone, take a photo of you and your business and send it to us at your business@msnbc or tweet to the us@msnbcyourbiz and use the hash tag your biz selfie. so many of us are scrambling right now to get gifts and chances are we probably are making bad decisions, some are going to end up right in the return pile. so as a small business owner what should you think about to make sure your return policies

do not turn anyone off. the founder of shepherd presentations, a firm works with companies to build loyal relationships with customers and employees. great to see you, shep. >> great to be here. thanks for having me. >> so, what should a return policy look like and where should you be posting it? there is nothing more annoying than not being able to return something. >> right. and 85% of consumers or customers won't go back to a place that causes friction during a return, 95% will. so where should it be posted? in an obvious place. whether it's on premise in store experience, it should be oybs. if it's on line it should be easily found. people should be comfortable with that policy. they should know what it is ahead of time. >> before they make the purchase so they know they only have themselves to blame if it doesn't work out. you also have as one of our

ideas in spite of the return policy maybe you have it posted, just take it back if you are a store owner. >> right. just take it back. i mean, here's the thing. are you confident enough in whatever you are selling that you would be willing to take it back. why would you sell it if you know somebody is going to take it back. there was a client i worked with, he said we'll take back anything for any reason. if you don't like the color of the box we'll take it back. >> isn't that complicated because you may feel confident in what you have to sell but sizes, color, they are gifts, so you know, perhaps a person buying the gift isn't going to give to the someone who likes it. then it messes with your inventory, et cetera. >> right. well, once again, somebody's going to buy that sweater for somebody and it's not going to fit or be the right color, so one of the best ideas is to work with the manufacturer ahead of

time, know and have a deal with the manufacturer they are willing to take merchandise back for pretty much any reason. >> finally you suggest that people extend their holiday return policy. by how much? a few days, a few months, a year? >> i think a liberal return policy might be a 30-day return policy. gives people a chance to try out what they bought, make sure they like it. think about it. if the it's a holiday and you're buying your gift for somebody on black friday or cyber monday, well, 30 days later approximately is going to be christmas. doesn't give you time to return whatever it is that you bought so i would say extend to the maybe additional 30 days or at least through mid january. let people know that's what you're doing for the holidays. i believe it will create confidence, confidence creates more sales and more sales, who doesn't want that. >> absolutely. shep, thank you so much for giving us your tips. appreciate it.

martinelli cider is a staple at so many dinner tables. it was founded in 1868 by steven g. martinelli. this non-alcoholic drink is the number one selling product. we sat down with steven's great grandson at the company's headquarters in watsonville, california. he tells us why all entrepreneurs must expect the unexpected, challenge assumptions and plan for succession in this learning from the pros. build upon the the past. often in a family business the next generation rests on its laurels and more interested in distribution checks and not investing in the business for the future. when i joined the company in 1979, our plant was worn out, and we couldn't supply the demand we had for our products, we were pulling out of markets and losing shelf distribution. my dad was actually entertaining

offers to sell the company when i joined it. and i did not want to be the one who presided over the demise of a family business with the history we have. if we had not reinthe vested we probably would have gone belly up. i was handed a process for making apple juice the old-fashioned way. on a company that is over 100 years old you get used to doing things the same way. we like to say we've been doing it this way since 1868 and you can get stuck in a rut and not take advantage of improvements that can improve the quality of your product and reduce costs for the consumer. we used to store our juice in open redwood tanks and rubber hoses all over. and part of the system that i brought in in 1985 was dairy standard stainless steel tanks and cold filtration methods that actually improved our process, still doing it the same way that

grandfather did, but with modern technology. expect the unexpected. of course it's important to have a plan. but it's equally important to be nimble and able to seize opportunities when they come up. balls our competitors are really big companies we know that they are not as nimble as we are and not as capable of making small adjustments and we mad a major customer who saw one of our really old labels on our website and they said you know, we'd really like to feature that item. is that something you can do quickly? we were able to turn that around in six weeks, we listened to our customer. if they have a special request, we take it very seriously and do everything we can to accommodate them. >> anticipate and innovate. prior to 1920, when prohibition was just about to be passed, my grandfather developed a

pasteurization process that made apple juice a shelf stable item that could be sold for 52 weeks of the year. and when our number one item hearthsider was made illegal we were able to convert that product into a non-alcoholic version which is our sparkling cider which is what we're most known for now. if he had not anticipated that law obsoleting our number one product and developed a solution, we might not have made it through prohibition. plan for succession. there has been a marta nell tee take the helm. generation 5 is not ready so we've found a professional manager to be ourn 4.5 and mentor the fifth generation prospective managers. having a professional non-family manage tear mentor my son and my cousin makes it easier for us to

maintain our personal relationship rather than having it be a father and son business relationship so. succession is not just a ceo thing. it's absolutely critical for a company to have the mentorship of the people that have done the job before and then also the youth for the next generation. >> thank you everyone for joining us in 2015. it has been a great year. i know that i've been so inspired by the entrepreneurs and small business people that i've met over the past year and i hope that we've been able to tell their stories in ways that have inspired you as well. we also have a treasure-trove of tips and advice from these people who are in the trenches and so i want to tell you all as you get ready for 2016, head over to our web site where we posted all of the segments from the yearment it's open forforu m openforum.com/your business. follow us on twitter@msnbcyourbiz and on facebook and instagram too. when we return in january we kick off the new year with a

brand-new small business makeover. our makeover team heads to texas where they meet the owner of a woman's apparel store whose company seemed to be doing well but at the end of each month she never had any money to pay herself. sound familiar? it's a common story. find out how our experts dig into her marketing and finances and get this owner paid. till then, i'm jj ramberg, have a happy new year, everyone. and remember, we make your business our business. we thought we'd be ready. but demand for our cocktail bitters was huge. i could feel our deadlines racing towards us. we didn't need a loan. we needed short-term funding. fast. our amex helped us fill the orders. just like that. you can't predict it, but you can be ready.

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