if it's tuesday, money can't buy you love, but for donald trump, the love is there. so what can money buy him now? this is "mtp daily" and it starts right now. >> good evening from new york, i'm steve kornacki in for chuck todd. the leading republican candidate for the white house is a billionaire businessman who has yet to really break into his own bank. but that could all change very soon. >> starting around january 4th, we're spending a lot of money. we're going out and spending a lot. we don't want to take any chances. we're too close. >> that's a significant story, if it actually happens. we have heard talk like this before from trump. the last time he made this kind of noise, all he ended up doing was putting up a few radio ads in iowa and south carolina. so far, trump has essentially

spent nothing on a campaign where he holds almost 40% of republican support nationwide. it's not just data either. it's a talking point for his campaign. >> i loved the concept of saying, i spent the least and i'm the best result. because that's what it's all about. think of the country. he spent the least and he got the best result. other guys like bush, he spent $59 million and he's in the dog house. think of it, right? he's embarrassing. he's in the dog house. or others spending so much more money. i spent the least and i have the best. it's simple. >> it's also not just trump. the guy in second place, ted cruz, hasn't spent much more than trump has. together they account for more than 50% of the vote nationally. that national is even higher in iowa. and combined, trump and cruz have spent less than $2 million. meanwhile, jeb bush and his super pac have spent over 40 million bucks. but bush has done nothing but

move backward this year. marco rubio and his super pac, they have spent $20 million. rubio is looking for the kind of traction that trump and cruz have. the campaign started with everyone saying money matter more than ever. that billionaire donors would pick presidential winners and losers that citizens united had redefined campaigning. well, here we are and so far, money has mattered very little in this race. so why has spending had an almost inverse relationship with support in the polls? no doubt media attention is a factor. trump has spent little of his own money, but he hasn't been absent from the air waves. he finds ways to get on television and blankets social media with personal media and clips that cost him nothing to post. he does it by relying on talking points kind of language you see from more seasoned language.

to a lesser degree for now, cruz has achieved the same effect, but all without the kind of free media time that trump thrives on. the establishment endorsements are a pretty good predictor of who will get the nomination, and right now, not a single member of the house or senate has endorsed trump. no governors have come out for him either. cruz has wrangled a few house members, but he's trailing bush and rubio there as well. it's more than just being on tv. this is about the whole republican party. specifically the emergence in the tea party era of a gop counterestablishment that's bigger than anyone realized. the outsider movement has bypassed traditional media with its own outlets and personality. it's a republican party base in which mitt romney, john mccain, bob dole, all former republican nominees, they're not celebrated as much as they are scorned.

anti-establishment has pull, but does it have longevity? even if the old rules are restored by iowa and new hampshire, the new set of rules for presidential races may be on the books. want to bring in our panel to dig into this. senior editor at "the new republic." robert costa, reporter for "the washington post." eliana johnson is the washington editor at the national review. robert, let me start with you. what do you make of this? if you add up the spending of cruz, his super pacs and donald trump, it's about 2% of the money spent on the republican side. they're getting more than 50% of the vote. bush and rubio, 60 to 70% of the spending, maybe 15% of the support. what do you make of that? >> you really needed money to survive in previous cycles. that's why iowa and new hampshire were so important. they enabled you to have the cash to move forward. about you because of this conservative counterestablishment that exists

and has tentacles everywhere, it's not so much about money, but political capital within the infrastructure. >> eliana, you cover this world, the republican world. that republican counterestablishment, maybe for lack of a better term, how would you define it? how would you describe it? how big is it? what motivates it? and what's the staying power here for people like cruz and trump? >> steve, let me put it this way. i think money in the establishment is necessary, but not sufficient. forgive me for sounding like standardized tests there. but we don't see any candidates thriving who have no money. what we do see are candidates who have money, which has given them credibility. donald trump and ted cruz. who haven't really had to spend it. so money isn't insignificant here. what i do think matters that we haven't talked about is strong candidate skills. trump, cruz, rubio, christie, they have them.

the people who are struggling like jeb bush, don't have strong candidate skills. at the end of the day, i think that's reassuring. they want a candidate at the end of the day who can communicate with republican voters. they are sick and tired of having candidates who are brittle and can't communicate and move voters. because at the end of the day they don't want to lose the election. >> yeah, it's interesting. i think at ted cruz's stump speech, and he uses dole, mccain, romney, holds them up and says, we lost. we don't do that again. the conventional wisdom, this is going to be about billionaires, super pacs, record spending. did we just get -- was the conventional wisdom totally wrong about what money means? >> i think thus far it has been wrong, but a note of caution here, especially as we head towards the general. i feel like this model is working for republican politics, because this is how conservativism has evolved.

the emergence of the tea party. they're seizing upon people who are talking in the ways they want to hear. but i don't think that's going to necessarily overcome the amount of dollars that are going to be spent in the general, most li likely by hillary clinton. >> and we talk about trump and cruz being out front. some of the other candidates making news today going after not cruz, not trump, but going after marco rubio. jeb bush, the super pac is up on the air with a new ad that attacks rubio over his voting record. i think we have a clip of that. >> he was totally opposed to it. and didn't go there to vote no. what's it matter that you're opposed to it? he matters as much as i do. i have a vote in the senate. he has one, just didn't go. only in washington could you have the guts to stand up and say i'm a against something, you have a vote to vote "no" on and

then just not go. and then put out a press release after it was passed and say, this is why i was opposed to it. well, dude, show up to work and vote "no." and if you don't want to, then quit. >> obviously that is not a jeb bush ad. that was chris christie, though, making the same argument this jeb bush ad makes, attacking rubio over his attendance record in the senate. here's rubio today responding to to it. >> i have a close to 90% attendance record. chris has been missing in new jersey for half the time. but candidates, i think, as we get down the stretch, some of them get desperate and nasty in their attacks, and that's fine. we're going to continue to campaign on what i'm going to do when i'm president. >> so explain this dynamic. it's rubio getting the attention from bush and christie. >> because he's rising in iowa, in new hampshire. and he's the target if you're a mainstream republican hawk. what's fascinating, when i talk

to the campaigns, the mainstream republican campaign, they'd rather fight in their own narrow lane, than go after trump and cruz, because they think that's the place to really climb in new hampshire. you got to push down a christie or rubio to move your way up. >> and eliana, the other bit of news was rubio was out in iowa today. he basically said he's going to be living in iowa between now and the caucuses. so here's a sign that he sees iowa as his springboard. maybe not winning iowa, but doing well enough there. that's how he thinks he's going to stand out in new hampshire. he gets a head start by doing well in iowa? >> you know, rubio, i think, has to perform in every state, because he hasn't put an emphasis on any particular state, whereas somebody like ted cruz absolutely has to win iowa or a lot of wind will be taken out of his sails. but i think, you know, to the point bob made about rubio and christie, i think one mistake the rubio campaign has made is

getting strategically ahead of itself. he's really focused on ted cruz as his main rifle and forgotten about people like christie and kasich. i think it may have behooved him to clear some of those guys out and thrown some elbows at them. because they're breathing down his neck and he has people in his lane other than ted cruz who are going to give him real competition in new hampshire. >> such an interesting aspect. you talk about iowa, cruz versus trump. rubio trying to make a stand. but new hampshire is a totally different world. trump out there in first, but that's a state where bush, christie, kasich even is registering well in the polls. rubio. you have the log jam where the four candidates in that establishment lane right now are making it possible for trump to win there by dividing up the rest of the vote. >> i think that's where a lot of calls have been made for republicans to drop out of this race. i feel like that's going to be the place where it hurts the most. i mean, you have a lot of --

like you said, establishment voters who are going to really have a hard time figuring out who to pick. so we're getting a little too close now for someone to drop out. i think for all that support to then coalesce around rubio or say christie. i think right now, those establishment republicans are a little bit in trouble. i think when you see rubio trying to make this heavy push, i think he's really trying to counteract that. it stands to reason that he might. but i'm not really confident that he will. >> everyone's looking for a way to jump out of that log jam in new hampshire. christie has the u"union leade." trump has the money. coming up, air strikes kill an isis leader with a link to the lead paris attacker. we'll have new details about what the isis leader may have been planning. and next, how pro football can adapt in the wake of criticism over head injuries.

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missouri governor jay nixon is activating the national guard today in response to widespread flooding, following days of torrential rain across the state. here he is just within the last hour. >> missouri is in the midst of a very historic and dangerous flooding event. the amount of rain we've received, in and places in excess of a foot, has caused river levels not only to rise rapidly, but to go to places they've never been before. >> he warns water levels are expected to exceed the historic 1993 flood levels. officials note rivers will continue to rise for at least another couple of days. an evacuation order is under way for residents in west alton, north of st. louis, after a levy

was breached there earlier today. roads are closed across the state and the coast guard had to shut down part of the mississippi river near st. louis. 13 people have died in missouri as a result of the severe weather. most of those deaths happened when vehicles were swept off flooded roads. we are keeping a close eye on this developing story. we'll bring you any updates as they happen. huh. introducing centrum vitamints. a brand new multivitamin you enjoy like a mint. with a full spectrum of essential nutrients... surprisingly smooth, refreshingly cool. i see you found the vitamints. new centrum vitamints. a delicious new way to get your multivitamins. for my frequent heartburnmorning because you can't beat zero heartburn! ahhh the sweet taste of victory! prilosec otc.

one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn. but cuz we use charmins we don't haultra softto get clean. charmin ultra soft gets you clean without the wasteful wadding. it has comfort cushions you can see that are softer and more absorbent, and you can use up to 4 times less. enjoy the go with charmin. back with more "mtp daily." i'm steve kornacki in for chuck todd. peyton manning was on the sidelines during the broncos victory over the bengals last night. but off the field, he's on offense and he's considering legal action. manning is strongly denying allegations he used banned substances after al jazeera aired a document alleging hgh was mailed to his wife in 2011. manning, the broncos and even the unpaid intern who made the

allegations are all refuting the stories. he's getting support from his greatest rival. tom brady telling a boston radio station that nobody has more respect for the broncos quarterback than he does. this morning on "today," debra davies, behind the al jazeera report, went out of her way to keep the focus off the future hall of famer. >> do you have specific evidence that peyton manning himself has ever taken hgh? >> we have not said that in the program. >> you're not alleging he took the substance? >> the only allegation from charlie sly is that growth hormone was sent from the guyer to ashley manning in florida. >> so it sounds like you don't have evidence against peyton manning? >> we're not making the allegation against peyton manning. >> on machine, former bush 43 white house press secretary and current crisis manager ari fleischer joined team manning. fleischer is reviewing the al jazeera reporting to determine

whether to take legal action, releasing this statement. al jazeera is backtracking and retreating. their story was not credible to begin with and it's not incredible now. within 48 hours of the broadcast, debra davies is now cricking her own reporting. the manning accusation comes as the mannings are closing out unflattering headlines like deflategate. and the opening of well smith's new newnew movie concussion. so what else is ahead for america's most popular and lucrative sport? chuck sat down with gregg easterbrook who is out with a new book called ""the game's" not over" in defense of football. nlt football has all these demons publicly, and yet is still enormously popular. and it's like we're dealing, almost like we're dealing with

this as a society. we feel guilty about what some of the body things of football, and at the same time, we love it. >> we do. people are asking themselves is it a guilty pleasure to watch the nfl on tv? but more people than ever are watching. it's hugely popular. i think we live in a partisan society where you're expected to be totally in favor of something, or totally against something, and that middle position, which is you can like something and want it reformed, it's also how i feel about the united states. it's also how i feel about sport. you c you. >> and if they will provide the solutions, their fan base will get there. but just be at the front end of the solution. they seem to fight. >> the nfl had to be dragged kicking and screaming into banning helmet to helmet hits. which is a fantastic reform. the fact that high schools are

imitating them has made a large number of young men safer. the real reform they don't want to get dragged into it loss of taxpayer subsidies. i think they think if we give an inch on something, they'll expect us to give a mile on all the free money they don't want to give up on. >> my theory about how this is going to be forced on them is when public schools decide they can't afford the liability on supporting football. >> yes. >> and that's where this is headed. >> the concussion liability lawsuits began five or six years ago. and it takes five or six years for tort litigation to work its way through the system. those suits are starting to go to settlement. and public high schools are losing large amounts of money. and no public high school can rationalize -- >> they're can't afford. >> right. so once there's no longer this league of kids practicing to be high school football players, things will be different for the

nfl. >> because then it's a club sport at best. and what does that turn the sport into dem graphically? i mean, we already -- that changes everything. >> there's already -- i think right now, african americans are disproportionally represented in football, but it's still a point where all -- take johnny manziel. there's lot of well to do people in football. but if it becomes a club sport, you may find it a sport that people are willing to risk a head injury in return for a pay day and that's not going to make anybody happy. >> we got a taste of this, the whole thing was, the nfl, they're too soft. we're anything to be tougher. the nfl is going to be forced to be doing that to probably change more -- you think they'll get rid of kickoffs? >> i do. >> do you think we'll get rid of face masks? >> no. but i think we can do away with

the kickoff. we can do away with the three-point stance. >> interesting. >> just look at any nfl play that's about to start. the linemen down on their stances, heads aimed at each other, at the snap, their heads collide. >> so offensive linemen will put their hands on their knees? >> exactly. then you reduce the head-to-head contact. to me, all the solutions lie in making the sport safer, increasing the emphasis on etion ka, especially in high school. so the boys in play in high school, instead of using it a thousand to one ticket for a bonus check, can use it to get a boost into college and get a college degree which will be far more valuable anyway. >> this movie concussion, how much of an impact will that have on the nfl? >> certainly some. i haven't seen the movie yet. i hear that it's pretty good. although fictionalized.

and the neurologist who is fictionalized by will smith in the film, he's a respectable guy, he's done great things, but i don't think he's proved his case yet. >> this disease, cte, what don't we know yet? >> the only thing we know for sure that omalu has proven, is that a small number of dead former nfl players had a brain degenerative condition. >> we know that. that's a fact. >> we don't know how many people who don't play football get cte. we don't know how many people in the football universe get cte. but the ones who showed dementia toward the end had this problem. it can only be diagnosed in the deceased. >> the book is called "the game's" not over. >> the game's great, but it needs to be reformed.

>> thank you. >> up next, the who, what, where, when, and the why in today's headlines, including the candidate who isn't drawing big crowds on the campaign trail and why jeb bush is getting help from his dad ahead of the primaries. plus, could the gop find itself without a clear-cut candidate at their convention next year? we'll look at how the big republican field could set up a chaotic convention.

time now for the ws, starting with a who. it's martin o'malley taking retail politics to new heights in iowa. he told morning joe today that inclement weather kept all but one person from an event in iowa yesterday. and that person didn't even end up committing to caucus for o'malley. ouch. the what. it's a practice run for new year's eve in times square. 3,000 pounds of confetti, more than you see here, will be released at the stroke of

midnight on thursday. now to the where. it is southern california, where a facebook video shows an electric road sign reprogrammed apparently by some enthusiastic trump supporter on interstate 15. despite what pundits said last summer, there's no exit in sight for donald trump's candidacy. the when, next week, when ben carson planned to shake up his campaign operation. he said, quote, we're going to certainly be altering some things. now to the why. a bush campaign send a fund-raising e-mail today from president george h.w. bush. it said in part, republicans must nominate and then elect the candidate who is ready to be the next commander in chief. having sat behind the oval office desk, i know jeb is serious about the tough challenges we face. as for the why, it's crunch time for the bush campaign to make a showing in the early states.

while hillary is riding high, the bush campaign is in a far more difficult spot, but still hoping for help from an oval office alum. up next, how the death of several isis leaders impacts terror. we'll have an update from the pentagon. but first, the cnbc market wrap. >> we did have a mild rally, the dow climbing 192 points, the s&p up by 21, the nasdaq jumping by 66 points. oil prices bouncing back almost 3% today as winter temperatures finally take hold in the u.s. and amazon shares climbing about 3% to a new all-time high, up more than 120% this year, second only to netflix as the s&p 500's top performer of the year. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. that's charmin ultra strong, dude.

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this is your headline. charaffe al mouadan. he was a syrian-based isil member, with a direct link to abdelhamid abaaoud, the paris attack cell leader. we killed him on december 24th in syria. al mouadan was actively planning additional attacks against the west. >> you heard it there, big news from the pentagon. an isis leader with direct ties to the mastermind of the paris terror attacks was killed on christmas eve, one of ten isis leaders killed this month by coalition air strikes. white house leaders reiterated their goal of degrading and defeating isis, but did not comment directly on the operation. courtney, what more did we know

about this operation? sounds like there might have been a particularly imminent threat here. >> we don't know how imminent the threat was from either individual. the colonel laid out ten isis leaders killed over the past month in iraq and syria, but really there were only two of them mostly significant. one was the one he announced in the video, al mouadan. he had a direct link, a tie back to one of the masterminds of the paris attacks in the fall. what we don't know is what that link was. what we do know is he was planning some sort of external attacks against the west. was that attacks against europe, against the u.s. homeland? that's another thing that's not clear. we do know, of course, that he was a highly specialized individual, planning an attack. so just the very nature of the fact that he was taken out on the battlefield. he was killed on the battlefield, indicates that this

is going to disrupt some sort of isis planning. it doesn't necessarily stop it, but it interrupts it. another man killed, abdel kotter hakeem. another individual with links to the paris attacks. again, we don't know what the links were, but he was planning external attacks against the west from the homeland in levant. >> and this was also a close call in the strait of hormuz, involving the "uss harry truman," coming very close to an iranian rocket. >> that's right. within 1,500 yards. iranian navy boats put together what seemed like a hasty, live-fire exercise just as the uss harry s. truman and the buckley were transiting the strait of hormuz into the gulf.

the iranians gave a short warning before they fired off some rockets 1,500 yards off the starboard side of the truman. they were fired away from the ship, not actually at it, just near it, but u.s. military officials here are saying while it wasn't a direct threat to the u.s. ships, it was unnecessary and it was provocative. >> courtney kube at the pentagon, thank you for that. still ahead on "mtp daily," robert draper of "the new york times" magazine on what is behind the pushback from conservative voters and the potential chaos for the gop. s d. and when i finally told my doctor, he said humira is for adults like me who have tried other medications but still experience the symptoms of moderate to severe crohn's disease. and that in clinical studies, the majority of patients on humira saw significant symptom relief. and many achieved remission. humira can lower your ability to fight infections,

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and take charge of your score. presidential campaign rhetoric of 2015 has certainly captured passionate feelings on all sides of the immigration issue. tonight a new msnbc documentary, in partnership with telemundo and the center for investigative reporting, takes us to the u.s./mexican border, where encounters between customs agents and civilians can take a dangerous turn. ♪ ♪ >> reporter: this story begins with a glimmer of hope. and ends with a harrowing journey. maria, her 14-year-old daughter, and another teenage girl, set off on a tough trek that's not uncommon for central americans trying to come to the united states. over two weeks, they travel from their native hond uras through guatemala, where they were abandoned by a trafficker who

they say took off with their money. they then team up with a group of mothers and children and arei aarrive at the u.s. border. christine porch is maria's attorney. rchl the irony of this whole story is that so much of the violence typically occurs before they enter the u.s. border. and in this case, it all happened after. >> you can tune in for the premiere of "clash at the border" at 11:00 p.m. eastern time right here on msnbc. we'll be right back with "mtp daily."

we should never again use the word brokered because there

are no brokers left in the party. >> that's true. >> this is a wider and broader field than we have ever had before, and you really have three lanes, not two lanes in this. you've got the trump lane, the conservative lane, and the establishment lane. that suggests votes -- >> trump gets his own lane? >> sure, absolutely. look at the way you've been talking. there's the trump lane. >> that was ben ginsburg, former counsel for mitt romney and george bush's presidential campaigns, talking about the possibility of a brokered republican convention. although he didn't like the term. but a lot of terms to describe that possibility. in today's "wall street journal" he took it a step further, laying out three likely convention scenarios for the gop. first, a clear winner emerges in the primaries with enough delegates to secure the nomination. that it is what we're used to seeing. second busine

second, a contested convention with several candidates having a few hundred delegates. and third, another contested convention, and this time an all-out brawl, the nominee doesn't clinch a first ballot nomination, the convention goes to a second ballot and maybe more after that. that kind of chaos within the republican party and voters' rebellion against the establishment is at the center of these scenarios and the focus of a new "new york times" magazine piece by robert draper, where he writes, good governance has become not just an oxymoron but a politically poisonous phrase from a dead language. to utter it is to mark your political extinction, or so the thinking goes in the winning camps these days. joining me now, robert draper of "the new york times." the brokered, contested, deadlocked, whatever term, convention scenario. i guess i'm a little cynical about it, it seems like every four years, we reach a point where somebody can say, this is how it happens, this is going to be the year, and everyone in the media would love to cover one of

these things. so the argument that this year really is different. the dynamics that you're outlining are really different enough to bring it about. do you think they are different enough where we should be talking about something like this? >> well, i'm with you, steve, that i'm a bit cynical about the prospects of a brokered convention. i do think that because of the nature of the field and because of the nature of the so-called lanes, that we're likely to see a protracted campaign. this is not going to be finished in march. likely through april and perhaps longer than that. as to whether -- i mean, it was be a supreme irony obviously if in the summer of trump that has now become perhaps the year of trump, the year of the outsider, that it all ends with an inside deal and a brokered convention. i'm not ready to say that's case, but what is clear, is that the series of conventional wiz domz have been stood on their head and that after 2012, there was that belief that after the election results, maybe the tea party will shut up and go home. there was a belief that bad

governance would be, you know, acts of legislative malfeasance would be punished and that proved not to be true after the government shutdown of 2013. the most recent one is this notion that this kind of time war notion, it would appear that republicans ultimately will nominate somebody who will stand on their record. in fact, the language seems to be precisely the opposite. john kasich has been running on his record and getting nowhere as a result. >> you think back to 2012 and mitt romney ultimately got through the process, but there was that block of the party that seemed to want anybody but romney. they were with gingrich for a while, santorum, jumping around, they didn't want to get on board. they weren't enough to stop him, though. s had th has that portion of the party, the anybody but the establishment candidate wing grown large enough that they

could veto a candidate, whoever emerges? >> yes, that is possible. for one thing, pundits and republican establishment figures have been repeatedly wrong in the prog noftication that the summer of trump would dwindle by the fall or early winter. there's still the belief, i mean, you hear all of these guys when they talk about their paths to victory and the strategist, they all presuppose there will be a trump meltdown, or that people will grow weary of his outrageousness. that's proved not to be the case. not simply because of the nature of trump himself, but the basic fed-upped-ness if you will, of government. such when bush and kasich talk about how they worked with the legislature, people turn away, as if it's a kind of dead language they're speaking. >> conservative activists now follow procedural votes on capitol hill moment by moment on

social media. they track everything. and that kind of environment, if there was a contested convention, would it even be possible for the establishment, the donor class, to have any kind of concerted effort for their own candidate? because conservatives seem to follow so closely and would probably be outraged by the effort. >> i think it would destroy the party. if for example, ted cruz, who is one of the elite body of 100, but is clearly running as an outsider, if he were to beat out trump and become the nominee, it's hard for me to imagine that the donor class would be able to push him aside and to say, no, no, anybody but one of those guys. i think that it would -- the conservative base simply would not -- >> eliana johnson, go ahead. >> hey, robert, i read your piece and thought it was great. kasich's record really seems to be out of sync with, you know,

where the grassroots of the party are. so do you think really it's running on good governance or record, or that his record really is just not in line. i wonder if you could compare him to somebody like chris christie who seems to be getting momentum and also is running on a record. >> glad you brought up christie. but with regard to kasich and his record, i think you're right that he does not pass the ideological test of the republicans. in new hampshire, that doesn't seem to be kasich's problem. when he talks to people about expanding medicaid as part of the affordable care act while he's been governor of ohio, he's been able to talk voters through this sort of thing. and so i don't think it's risen to an ideological matter. for that matter, i would suggest that none of this is really about ideology. it's about attitude. and chris christie in a lot of ways is emblematic of that. we've heard from christie is him

becoming less of a governor that he is currently and more of the federal prosecutor that he was. he channels that aspect of him in town halls, both in attitude and substance, much more than he does his actual accomplishments as governor. >> robert, given how marco rubio seems to be the most politically talented in the field, just based upon what you state in your article, how do you see his iowa and new hampshire strategy playing out, specifically? >> rubio's a tough -- it's a tough question regarding rubio, who seems to be everybody's second choice. and he seems to be still aware that it's a danger for rubio, who runs the risk of being seen as somebody who is playing the angles, maybe a little bit too cutely, rather than being the one thinger or the other. he's again a member of the senate and yet his language has been not dissimilar to cruz's in

so far as he's talked about what he's fought against, such as obamacare, than what he's been for, which was when he was with the gang of 8 immigration eigh immigration reform. rub rubio's strategy is more of a war of attrition strategy. i don't think he's going to do all that well in iowa. i think there's going to be a real likelihood that he could place in the top three in new hampshire. but then, it's, you know, it's the later states, nevada, perhaps south carolina, but i think that's where we're going to see cruz and jeb bush's last stand, unless he comes in fifth if new hampshire, in which case, i don't think his campaign is tenable much longer. so i think rubio is more super tuesday, getting to florida. it's essentially winning the war of attrition, but he's got a fair amount of money. >> and robert, you know a thing or two about the bush family. think back a year to jeb bush, who'd been out of politics really for a number of years. getting into this race, do you think if he knew then what we

know now about what we know about the republican party in the year of 2015, do you think he would have gotten in this thing? >> no, with i don't think he would not. i think jeb bush has never had much of an appetite for campaigning. to say he's rusty at it is charitable. i really believe that mitt romney was a better candidate and i thought i would never say that about romney's campaign superiority over anybody else. but, no, i think, again, it's not only just because of the rigors of the campaign itself, and not only because this is a particularly competitive campaign, but again, that he, like john kasich, seems to have, as i put it in the story, a wallet full of currency that has absolutely no value. and, you know, in today's campaign rhetoric. that he is a guy who can talk about how good he was in governance and people just don't seem interested in that. i think that if jeb bush knew that those would be the factors in play, no, he would not be running. >> robert draper, thank you for taking a few minutes. appreciate it. >> sure, my pleasure. >> and jamiel, robert, and eliana are staying with us.

up next in "the lid," trump keeps bashing the clintons, but will hillary take the bait? stay tuned. "sit" per roll. more "who's training who" per roll. bounty is two times more absorbent. so one roll of bounty can last longer than those bargain brands. so you get more "life" per roll. bounty. the long-lasting quicker picker upper. and try bounty napkins.

we're always looking for ways to speed up your car insurance search. here's the latest. problem is, we haven't figured out how to reverse it. for now, just log on to compare.com... plug in some simple info and get up to 50 free quotes. choose the lowest and hit purchase. now...if you'll excuse me, i'm late for an important function. compare.com. saving humanity from high insurance rates. six days before bill clinton is set to campaign for his wife, donald trump is stepping up his attacks against the former president, tweeting, "remember that bill clinton was brought in to help hillary against obama in 2008. he was terrible, failed badly, and was called a racist!" trump also appeared on the "today" show this morning, blasting bill clinton for what trump says is, quote, a penchant for sexism.

>> there were certainly a lot of abuse of women. and you look at whether it's monica lewinsky or paula jones or many of them and that certainly will be fair game. certainly, if they play the woman's card with respect to me, that will be fair game. >> last night, the clinton camp rebuked trump saying, "hillary clinton won't be bullied or distracted by attacks he throws at her and former president clinton." clinton continued her campaign swing through the granite state today, still not taking trump's bait. instead, she appealed to new hampshire voters' sense of duty. >> in many ways, you are the first, or depending upon how you define it, last line of defense. the decision that new hampshire makes is so important. >> and joining me now for "the li lid,," our panel. eliana, let me start with you, donald trump, invoking bill

clinton and invoking the sex scandals of the 1990s. does that stuff still matter to republican voters today, who he's trying to win over? >> i think it does. this is not about bill clinton. this is about hillary clinton. and if he is running a campaign, a feminist campaign, i think this really cuts to one of her core contradictions, which is having tolerated some not very feminist behavior on the part of her husband, and having overtly attacked some of his alleged victims. and authenticity has been a big problem for hillary clinton. we've gotten some short glimpses of the real hillary, you know, in the '90s, when she said, you know, she's not standing by her man like tammy wynette. and when bill said, you're getting two for the price of one. and the american public hasn't really liked the real hillary when they've seen her. so i think trump is really cutting through the manufactured image and getting to the heart of who she is, which can be quite dangerous for her. >> jimmy, what do you think of this? this topic being brought back up. bill clinton, lewinsky, paula

jones, all that stuff from the 1990s? there's a question of, is it fair game? and there's a question of, is it effective if you're trying to attack hillary clinton? >> for right now, hillary clinton is smart to stay above the fray. really, there's no use getting into an argument with somebody who doesn't even really understand what sexism actually is. what he's alleging, of course, is that bill clinton was unfaithful. everything knows that. but i don't understand how he plans to win more voters or inspire more passion than he's already inspiring by continuing to bring this stuff up. it makes him look quite silly, i thought. >> robert, one thing i'm thinking of, he talks about 2008, and you remember in the 2000 campaign, we're used to bill clinton, when he was the candidate in '92, in '96, all that stuff, when his back was against the wall, he found a way to get out and pull it out. his wife's back was against the wall in 2008 and he seemed to have a tough time under the spotlight. he said some things that caused uproars, as trump said. there were racial politics that got involved with it. i guess the risk here, if you're

the clinton campaign is, if you're bill clinton, does bill clinton get baited into some kind of back and forth with trump here that blows up in his face? >> he just may. the "washington post" reported a few months ago before donald trump got in the race that bill clinton and donald trump had this fascinating phone call where clinton not so much encouraged trump to run, but where he said, it would be interesting, donald, if you got into this race. you would have a big role to play in your own party. and i think that is a conversation that reflected their report and also their relationship, but that relationship is unraveling in this campaign. >> yeah, you wonder what bill clinton thinks of that phone call now, looking back at it. but what do you think, jamiel? he's in new hampshire last week, do you think he's going to go after him or stays away from this? >> i don't think bill clinton can resist the fight. i think it can help hillary, and try to make sure that those -- the fact that he's in new hampshire gets on the -- at the top of the headlines. if you got to bait trump and got to fight trump to do that, it might be worth it, actually.

>> thank you, jamiel, robert, and eliana. we will be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily." and now erica hill picks up our coverage, next. breaking weather news across the country at this hour. as a brutal storm that has now claimed 43 lives barrels east. good evening. i'm erica hill. in the midwest tonight, towns are underwater. evacuations underway. and a 1.5 million people remain under flood warnings. the mississippi, missouri, and merrimack rivers all at or near flood stage, as forecasters warn the worst is still to come. missouri's governor taking to twitter this afternoon, before addressing the cameras for an update on the situation. >> it's very clear that missouri is in the midst of a very historic and dangerous flooding event. the amount of rain we received in some places in excess of a