all of that would point to really remarkable job by first responders evacuating only that hotel. but remember the mall complex underneath that hotel as well. some of our guests have mentioned, of course, they will need to go through this hotel. >> right. >> secure all of those rooms obviously. >> cal perry. thanks for that. top of hour here, seven hours away from midnight on the east coast. following breaking news out of united arab emirates where for the better part of the last five hours or so, there has. a fire that has engulfed a high-rise hotel luxurious hotel, 63-story building right in the heart of downtown dubai. hundreds of thousands of people gathered around to watch the fireworks spectacular that would take place at burj khalifa nearby, the world's tallest tower. that area evacuated. we can see from images and social media and user-generated content the fire was still

burning floor by floor as it workedite way up to the top of the 63-story building. also saw debris falling from the top of the hotel. word from the u.s. consulate general in dubai, presently seeking information on whether or not any u.s. citizens were among those injured. we got word from the dubai government that, in fact, 14 people were injured, suffering minor injuries. a lot of questions surrounding the decision by the uae to proceed and have the pyrotechnics display. we've been hearing from eyewitnesss who describe the scene in some parts of the downtown area a lot of panic, concern among the crowds there some couldn't get out of the areas where they are as the fire was being contained by the civil defense forces. we heard from other eyewitnesses in other parts of dubai saying it was a fessive atmosphere, people continued to celebrate as the new year was brought in. and it was a dramatic situation

that unfolded. investigators will have a lot of questions how this fire broke out. no official explanation as to how this fire began. it time for a special edition of mtp daily with chuck todd. thank you for watching. >> if we're saying good-bye to 2015, hello to 2016, then it the first fight for the first four. this is a special edition of "mtp daily." and it starts right now. merry christmas, happy new year, happy holidays to everybody. i'm chuck todd. and this is a special edition of "mtp daily." on the road to 2016, tonight, we're looking at the fight for the first four. it's iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, and nevada. the february foursome will give us winners and losers, not just

polls, in the quest for the democratic and republican presidential nominations. the outcomes will send some candidates soaring and will officially sink some others who are banking on an early breakthrough moment that perhaps will never come. all of this hour mapping out what you need to know to navigate 2016 race. with me in washingtoni expert panel, perry bacon jr., national editor of the cook political report, amy walter and "the washington post" political reporter and msnbc analyst robert costa. joined by experts on the ground if 4 each state. so all eyes, where do we begin? of course it's iowa. and we'll begin there. the hawkeye state voters take their first in the nation status very seriously and the candidates take that as seriously as well. >> we are all in in the state of iowa. >> i am -- i'm always delighted to be here in iowa. >> iowa's been amazing. it been amazing. but we're doing so well. and i love this place.

>> great to be back in iowa. >> this is a great stadium. smells like roses. >> i know you iowans tack your responsibility seriously. >> one state that's made progress, that's iowa. >> great to campaign in iowa where every person matters. >> i bet you iowa didn't know they had that much love to give out. joining me for this section of our special, ann seltzer, pollster for "the des moines register" and the person we count on to get the caucus polling correct. good to see you. >> good to see you, too. >> well, let begin with, i think, to me the bigger question, before we dpig ofigur candidates, who is going to show up? who's going to show up on each side? what are the electorates going to look like? you've been polling through 2015. is this a big year for the caucuses like 2008 or more of a moderate year like 2012? >> you know, we never know until the night exactly what's going

to happen. we get a bit of a hint in our final poll, right before the caucus. but at this point in time we wouldn't have predicted in 2008 the number of people caucusing was going to double. we had no hint that was feing to happen what we see in our data now is that 25%, 1 in 4, on each side on the democratic side and on the rerepublican side that this will be their first caucus. so that's what we've seen in years past. whether that ends up being younger people, whether that ends up being more independent people, surely on the republican side when you had a field of 15, my -- 17, at one point -- my initial thought was, this is going to be a big turnout on the republican side. we don't know yet if that will materialize. >> well, a few little facts. it's same day voter registration, you show up, if you're to the a registered voter, you can register. say you're an independent you want to participate in one of the two you can do that on

caucus night. i believe if you are going to turn 18 and be eligible to vote in november, then as a 17-year-old, you can caucus in february, right? >> that's right. it's part of the mix that makes the caucus on paper look like it would be impossible to poll accurately. >> all right. let me bring in the rest of the panel. you do pull that off. amy, i think the thing that, to me, the big question is going to be, is this going to be traditional iowa caucus on the republican side, if that is, advantage ted cruz. or his donald trump going toe remack this thing. >> the latest poll, cruz is doing well under all of these segments of the republican electorate. and i do think if new voters come out, it not as if these are new voters opposed to somebody like ted cruz. but i think you're exactly right. the number one question, in my mind, throughout these first four states, is who are trump

voters? do they show up? >> ann, who are trump voters, and do they show up? >> trump is taking second place with almost every, almost every demographic group out there. he loses a little bit to ben carson when you look at evangelicals but he's in a solid second place. when he led our poll in august, people kept saying, who are the trump voters. he led with every demographic. so, he's not one of those candidates, and we can talk about bernie sanders maybe in a minute, who has sort of peaks and valleys when you look across the cross tabs. he tends to be a very flat person. we're analyzing right now what we can find out more as we dig into our data files to get a better feel for whether trump is in fact expanding the un vrs of people who can show up caucus night. >> perry, the other thing, it amazing about trump he's not doing iowa the way you're supposed to do iowa. he doesn't go to pizza ranches,

right bob? he doesn't do hand to hand retail campaign. ted cruz has been doing than but trump hasn't done that. i wonder if iowans punish. >> he's done really well. the thing is electorate in iowa is so much more very conservative and some much more evangelical than the average state and the rest of the process. i'll be curious to see not only how cruz does, but ben carson, huckabee, san tori, carson is going further down. more he goes down the more cruz can go up. romney won 25% of vote in 2012, basically tied that caucus. trump's getting some of those people. curious to see who finishes second among the traditional candidates, among the rubio, christie, bush. that will help them going forward if one of them gets 10%, 15%. >> here's the other thing, when we talk about the field expanding and universe expabding

in 20008, barack obama had an intensive data organization as well. >> that's right. >> one thing to say i'm at a pizza ranch or the guy who organized saner to run's win in 2012, he does not have, as far as we know, data-driven targeted operation to find those people who have not turned out before. >> who does have the best organization? i mean, is it cruz? >> trump's organization is better than people think, that's always the line you hear. >> yep. >> and frankly what i've seen. >> yep. >> but it doesn't seem to be the way a winning caucus campaign would look like. >> we'll have to see. it's different. i've sat down with chuck lauder in who ran santorum's caucus campaign. he said the people in a walmart parking lot, not necessarily people in churches, but as a people who may have moved to iowa who are disengaged from politics. and that's where the trump campaign has been soliciting caucusgoers, trying sign up people for the campaign. sam clove is from the western

side of iowa. trump realizes he's not going to get cruz die-hards, people who are values voters. if you're a conservative populi populist, he can try to thread the needle. >> who the group could prize you? talk about cruz and trump, they're one-two, feels like they're going to be one-two. the fact of the matter is rick santorum was in single digits at this point in time. huckabee started moving. who in this, if they pop, it wouldn't surprise you? >> well, i think from the very beginning, when we first started polling there was a little bit of upside for marco rubio just in the first place horse race. keep in mind you have a huge field of candidates only 100 percentage points to go around. we had to look beyond first choice to see who else had some depth and was always marco rubio who looked poised to do better than his first place horse race would suggest.

>> i'm convinced, if marco rubio wins iowa it one way this race ends in a hurry. speaking of races that could end in a hurry, quickly delve into the democratic side. to me, it's a one-state campaign for hillary clinton in that if she loses iowa, she could lose new hampshire and hand wringing begins. she can shut this down quickly if she wins iowa. >> my sense is if she wins iowa by ten points or more, sanders is ahead in new hampshire now. if you got a big clinton win that might change the imagen bernie sanders is not barack obama. when i'm there, not the depth of support for him. and the war question, not a key issue sanders -- >> what have you seen? anything that tells you she can blow this in iowa. >> early on, i'm sure you talked to the same people, hand wringing. i heard a couple of people saying gosh this feels like it felt like in early 2008. those people are not wringing their hands anymore, at least when i'm talking to them a lot of it is her coalition, the coalition that she put together

in 2007 is still there, it just that there's not a stronger coalition on that side. she hasn't expanded her coalition. >> i want to give ann last word. bob, jump in. >> it's a sleepy race and the s sanders campaign knows that. trying to revive the base in coming weeks. >> what evidence says bernie can win, not close, but bernie can win? >> well, bernie has the same demographic cocktail that barack obama put together. so he does very well, not only making up the gap to be even with hillary clinton, but to be many percentage points above her when people first time caucusgoers, people under age 45, people who are independent, rather than democratic in their view, people who are liberal and the nones within you ask about religious affiliation, they say none. and that obviously some overlap

there. but it's a matter of getting turnout to happen. and he has big events, bigger than hers typically, if he's getting pledge cards signed. getting them organized to show up february 1st, he could be a contender. >> all right. ann, always good to talk to you. nobody figures this out better than you do. so don't mess it up for us, will you? >> i'll do my best. >> i'm kidding. expert panel is sticking around. guess where we're going next. it's on to new hampshire like what happens after iowa's over. the granite state has a history of not agreeing with iowa. in fact the only recent republicans to win both iowa and new hampshire were incumbent presidents, reagan, bush, and bush. and only two democrats, al gore and john kerry have won both since jimmy carter was president. as you can see, new hampshire's likely to go differently than iowa. much more after the break. huh.

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one down, three to go "mtp daily." next stop, new hampshire. then south and head west. but whether south carolina or nevada comes fer defends which party you're in. i'll explain after this.

god bless the great state of new hampshire. >> i'm grateful, i have to say, to the people of new hampshire. >> nice to come to new hampshire, i get to come to front door of places. in new jersey i am never allowed to come through the front door. >> love new hampshire.

. >> country of new hampshire, a place so beautiful and welcoming. >> i do enjoy coming to new hampshire because it seems to me like a lot of the people here are well informed. >> i'll give you a few remarks, and then we'll have a conversation. new hampshire style. >> oh, everybody loves new hampshire. now that they're no longer in iowa, anyway. welcome back to this year-end edition "mtp daily." drilling deep into the february foursome that will decide who gets the early momentum. you don't get momentum before iowa and new hampshire. momentum. iowa and new hampshire create momentum. the first primary, required by state law. that is not a joke. they made this part of their dna. just one week after the iowa caucuses. on the democratic side, clintons have always had nothing but love for the granite state. bill dubbed the comeback kid even after technically losing the state in 1992.

of course it's where hillary bounced back in 2008 with a win after losing iowa and setting the stage for a long nomination process in the democratic side in '08. for the republicans the sixth time in ten primaries there is a bush on the ballot. how about that? 6 of the last 10, dating back to george h.w. bush in 1980. panel is back for more. joining us, professor at the university of new hampshire. dante, good to see you, author of a book "four faces of the republican party, fight for the 2016 nomination," the fact that you know who four faces of the republican party are now tells me you may know already who has won this election, my friend. >> one can hope. >> let's start with what matters to me the most of what makes new hampshire more unique than any other state, the fact this is a first test with independent voters. and they can totally change the face of the electorate.

who is the new hampshire independent voter this year, and which primary are they going to be involved in? >> well, certainly, you're seeing independent voters take a look at someone like donald trump who's a populist candidate, whether doesn't identify strongly with the republican party and independent voters are of two camps be there are voters who carefully think about which primary to go to, and then there are those independent voters who are really in it for the show, and they're going to be attracted to the candidate who is making the most news, and that could be the most news between february 1st, when iowa votes, and new hampshire voting, most likely february 9th. so, a lot of the independent vote could depend on who comes out with some momentum out of iowa. you know, if donald trump doesn't perform well in iowa, maybe he won't have the media blitz that he would if he were coming in as the clear front-runner.

>> you know, it's interesting, just to clarify things so people understand, if you're a registered democrat you cannot participate in the republican primary. but independents pick a ballot and that's what makes it tricky. in 2000, an example, some polls had bill bradley beating al gore and he ended up losing to gore because of independents decided not to participate. and the democratic primary -- i feel like get those caveats aside. what we don't know about new hampshire whether it is does it end up doing its sort of this intellectual republican quirkiness of the mccains, christies or does it go with the pop u populist roots, pitchfork vixryes like pat buchanan saw. >> at this stage, trump has been leading there by so much. i think the question to me is like, not about who is in first, he's really in first but

speaking dante's language, his book, moderate and liberal republicans, 47% of the republicans who have voted in new hampshire 2012 were moderates or liberals. who is second, christie or rubio? it's a big problem with the republican establishment. christie ahead of rubio, it's like when is rubio going to finish second in a state even. >> bob, i've had this theory, i've said this before, that what happens in new hampshire stays in new hampshire. i say it this way because the new hampshire republican electorate will not be duplicated in any other state throughout the nominating process. >> that's true. >> the most liberal or moderate or however you describe it. the least conservative leaker to rate we see, correct? >> the electorate doesn't map out anywhere else. it's the most important state early on because it's never been in recent elections this crowded in the mainstream lane. if you're an establishment republican, kasich, rubio, christie, bush, they've been battling for months, no clear winner. i agree with perry, it's a battle for second place.

>> and you've -- it's been a long time since we have not had a local favorite in the mix. >> right. >> look back, kerry was leading at that point, you know, and romney, even in 2008, 2012. yes, on the democrat ex-side we get sanders. but on the republican side there's no obvious local boy and that's what makes it unique. >> feels like this establishment lane has changed, right? you had kasich, popped, thanks to tv ads now the union leader got behind christie. christie doing it the old fashioned way. this goes back to something we were talking earlier. donald trump has not done new hampshire the old fashioned way. chris christie has. does that matter? >> absolutely. yeah, i think it does. i think christie -- you look at his favorable/unfavorables beginning of the year, clearly under water, and he's turned that around and it hasn't been by massive rallies like donald trump. but it's been doing town hall

meetings. chris christie is on page 3 or page 4 of the list of new hampshire towns that republican candidate hits during a new hampshire swing. he's a campaign manager's dream in that regard. so, he's, i think it's authentic momentum that we're seeing here. and i would put him and jeb bush, i think, ahead of john kasich right now, in terms of trying to become that favorite of moderate establishment republican voters. >> you left out a name, dante. >> a real possibility -- >> you left out a name, you're not the only one, marco rubio, what's going on? >> well, rubio is right now, a lot of potential because his net favorables have been strong all year. the question is whether he can cash in the deal over the next two months. will he commit to new hampshire, the way that chris christie is, that jeb bush is, those two are all in, throw in john kasich as well.

and the fear is, i think among establishment republicans, is that rubio, christie, kasich, bush, throw in fiorina, they're going to split 50% of the vote, let say, five different ways which makes for a muddle coming out of new hampshire for an alternative to say, donald trump, if he holds, which i'm not convinced, but if he does, establishment's looking for an alternative, who do they pick? >> bob, ted cruz could win under that scenario. 22, 23% could be a winning number and if he's winning iowa -- >> ted cruz's secret in new hampshire, the rand ron paul coalition. remember who came in second in new hampshire last time. ron paul. >> democratic side, bernie sanders is favored to win. >> yep. >> should win, all of those things. but how could he not win? how is it possible not to win? >> to not within, well, some of it goes to the who do the independents show up for, where are they coming from, and where is the

energy coming from. depending on the margin in iowa in terms of getting younger votes out, if they don't turn out and traditional democratic voters turn out, women turn out, that helps hillary. >> dante, what's the scenario where hillary clinton does upset bernie in new hampshire? >> young voters and independents don't turn out for bernie sanders the way he hopes, although college campuses will be in session february, which is something new for new hampshire. those are the two key groups. those low turnout groups turn out that say 55-year-old democratic women turn out for hillary clinton. >> dante scala, appreciate it. >> you, too sir. panel staying with us as we head south. south carolina to be exact, where things have turned nasty and flat-out ugly, whether bush/mccain or clinton/obama. the palmetto state is usually generated little southern hospitality. more on "mtp daily" after this. try the superior hold...

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the people of south carolina have been amazing. >> south carolina elects presidents. >> it's great to be back in south carolina. >> south carolina, y'all do it right. >> south carolina has been pretty good to the bush family over the years.

>> that is factually correct, but may be wishful thinking on jeb bush's part. we'll find out. back with more on the special edition of "mtp daily," diving deep into the february foursome of states that will shape the 2016 race. we're halfway through our first four. the back half is a split situation. let me explain. so nevada democrats and south carolina republicans will actually make their pick on the same day february 20th, a saturday. the other side in each state will weigh in a few days later on separate days. why the two-state parties in south carolina, nevada don't work together the iowa, new hampshire is i don't know. but we'll see. let's start with south carolina, always proud to tout its first in the south status for both parties after the iowa caucuses and new hampshire primary. long viewed as sort of a southern fire wall for likely nominees to sew things up. plrly the republican side. newt gingrich's 2012 win made mitt romney to not win the

palmetto state primary. john edwards did the same thing to john kerry in 2004. this time around, the real action again is on the republican side. our panel is back for more and here to be our fourth, to help us out, get ready is a reporter with his ear to the ground, andy shane of "the state" of course newspaper in columbia, south carolina. >> thank you for having me. >> let me start with an uncomfortable question for south carolina political reporters why does it feel like south carolina matters a little bit less this time? is it the field too crowded? lindsey graham? i feel as if there are fewer candidates showing up there as compared to four and eight years ago. >> i think a part of that is what comes up behind it, with s.e.c. primary march 1st and then the big proim marries march 15th, it's a national

campaign with the pacs playing a role, adding money to coffers, candidates can stay in longer. no longer will a bad showing in iowa and new hampshire knock you out like it did in the past. >> what's interesting about south carolina, marco rubio's super pacs are being run by two of the operatives from south carolina. >> that's true. i mean, he's -- it gives us a sense that rubio's really got an all in policy about south carolina at this point. you know, he has not been here as often as some other candidates, but he is starting to ramp up a little bit more and this grassroots efforts have been strong. >> you know, bob, that's the first time of our state where you hear, rubio seems to be more organized than anywhere else. they won't tell us they're all in when it comes to south carolina the way andy said it. >> rubio's campaign is in for the long haul. rubio strong showing in south carolina i think would be a powerful thing.

whoever wins south carolina is going to go into the super tuesday states on march 1st and be seen whether fair or not as a southern favorite and that's going to set him up. >> the running conventional wisdom is the conservative out of iowa becomes front-runner. >> becomes front-runner. >> if that conservative out of iowa is ted cruz. right. you do well with evangelicals. all though the evangelical vote in south carolina is less, i don't know how to say, evangelically they're not as conservative as they are in iowa. >> lindsey graham wouldn't be a united states senator if that were the case. >> it leans to traditional conservative candidate. as we saw in 2012, you have that clip, newt gingrich, i remember going into south carolina a few days before that primary, mitt was set to win, and the polls literally overnight flipped around. >> a populist streak in south carolina. >> a populist streak. and they're also liberal, moderate. south carolinas are represent ive of the republican party

than new hampshire, moderate, iowa, conservative. the graham thing really important. you haven't seen the nikki haleys and tim scotts involved. i think graham will be out by the time the primary happens and he might endorse somebody and then i think that nikki haley can endorse. the field has five, six, seven candidates. this is the real test where the rest of the primaries are. new hampshire has too many people right now. >> andy, perry brought up the most interesting name for a lot of us nationally, your governor, nikki haley. people think she's going to be at top of the list when it comes to potential running mates. where is she? where are her people? has she given any hint where she's leaning in the republican primary? >> she's not provided any hint so far, and she has said she may endorse at this point. i mean, you know, part when we ask her about being vice presidential possibility she says you're not able to get rid of me that easily. again, a lot is going to

depend, i think, on, as you all were pointing out, is that whether we're going to be at five, six candidates, it's a more narrow field, more focused at this point in south carolina, that's too early to tell because, again, pac seem to be keeping candidates afloat. >> what about the graham impact? has it been where -- hasn't done much in the polls but it has kept people on the sidelines. is that fair to say? >> very much so. i think especially money in south carolina. there's a lot of people who back lindsay for a senate campaign and right now they are backing lindsay for his presidential campaign, even though they may have been bush supporters in the past. to a certain degree lindsay is putting people in limbo and that might change if he does get out of the race in new hampshire as a lot of folks expect. >> let's quickly move to the democratic side. this, this is hillary clinton's fire wall. if disaster strikes in iowa and

back-to-back losses iowa and new hampshire the place where she flexes demographic muscle south carolina. >> electorate 20008, 55% african-american. i'm told it may be higher than than that in this election. this is a state sanders trying to organize. focussed on college campuses. i don't think he'll do terrible. he's got a lot of staff on the ground. hillary's going to win the state by a lot. it is a great fire wall for her for that reason. also goes back to bill clinton comments that he made, the clintons have done a good job cleaning up after that. they have built support. >> bernie sanders is not able to connect with african-american voters, though you can argue economic message should connect. >> right. there's just not the link that he's been able to make beyond this very narrow demographic group, he's very comfortable with and loves sitting in that lane. put him out of it, whether talking about national security, whether talking about black lives matter or an issue that he is not really just

committed to, there's like -- lack of comfort. >> what do you see in bernie? >> you know, with bernie now, there's a lot of interest among younger voters but not much as you say among african-american voters and a lot of democrats here in the state. hearing mo about hillary, polling shows that hillary has pretty much a guaranteed win here at the moment in the state. i think familiarity. obviously, even if you weren't with her in 2008, you know where she is and to a certain degree, i think, has built on that support. >> we did mention one other name, really much in the conversation, that's donald trump. he leads polls here because he leads polls nationaly. but if he done win iowa do you suspect cruz becomes the front-runner? >> you know, it depends what happens in new hampshire. looks like new hampshire he's leading like he's leading here, to a certain degree, can cruz, someone who does appeal to the

up state, folks in greenville, spartanburg, voters, evangelical, can he maybe get a good second place finish here in south carolina based on the current polls to motivate himself into the next set of primaries. right now trump is really the name that's on everyone's tongues. i was in aiken on saturday and 4,000 people showed up. i don't know who else can get that kind of crowd at the moment. >> andy shane, right, nobody else seems to get those crowds. we'll be seeing you a lot come february. thank you. three down, one to go. nevada, not nevada. don't say it that way or our next expert won't talk to you. many say the silver states the most modern looking vote, with a population that reflects changing economy and demographics of the country. we'll break it down.

final state in the february foursome. who will nevada bet on? and why is their caucus confusing? you're watching a special edition of "mtp daily."

god bless the great state of nevada. >> candy and i are absolutely delighted to be here back in nevada. >> in nevada. >> we will win nevada. >> i love coming back to southern nevada. >> a great success at trump

international hotel. i hope you know the hotel, most beautiful building in las vegas. >> but can he build a turnout for nevada's still newish caucuses? new found status as first in the west on the road to the presidential nomination, but only a caucus since 2008 and takes when both sides went for someone not being the nominee, mitt romney and hillary clinton both won. of course hillary clinton sort of won. obama got the delegates. our panel is back with us. our addition, no better person to use in nevada or less shy about talking to about to tell us why his state matters, jon ralston, host of "ralston live" airs statewide on pbs station and writes a column on the reno journal, a newspaper not owned by sheldon adelson. john, good to see you. >> hi, chuck. >> we'll wait to when sheldon buys the flash from you

anonymously soon enough. all right. tell us why nevada is really going to matter more this time than it ever has before. >> well, i think on the republican side, i think it's very possible that nevada could change the momentum of the race, still be scrambled by the time we get to the fourth state, and you know, rubio, if he done do that well in iowa, and or the succeeding two states may need nevada and he's very well organized here, he could be seen as the favorite here if he is still in the race by the time you get to nevada. he has a formidable organization. he has appealed to the mormon community here better than think other campaign. and only cruz and bush are organized here besides rubio. our caucus is different than iowa. we haven't been doing it that long. republicans botched it four years ago, took them three days to count votes. this year it's two hours or four hours depending what county you

live in, it's not a caucus. it's a hybrid, walk in, vote, don't talk to your neighbors who you like. who knows, i mean i don't think ann selzer could poll it here. >> that's for sure. bob, he brings up a point about rubio, if there is a must-win state of the first four for marco rubio, it nevada. if he's not winning here, where is he going to win? >> it's going to be difficult for him to win with cruz ascending, and new hampshire it's a crowded field. this is it. south carolina, went to newt last time. either launching pad or where it fizzles. >> that's my question. john, it seems that nevada gets the second shift. we talk about who won early states and never talk about who won the state of nevada. i've never heard of it giving anybody momentum, a turning point state. why could that be different this time? >> jon?

>> well, i can't get over the east coast bias -- >> here we go. >> but i really do think, in the past, we really haven't mattered so to speak, chuck, as much as we should have. but i do think, as bob pointed out, if rubio can't do well in nevada, where can he do well? he has the best political consultants in the state. he has the lieutenant governor chairing his campaign, the most energetic campaigner in the state and a mormon and able to recruit lds leaders to him. because there's so many candidates and i don't think there will be a total winnowing process by the time we get to nevada, i think we could matter. >> perry, the point of nevada in the first four is the fact that it is the most demographically diverse of the first four, yes, iowa and new hampshire are swing states but nevada is a swing state that feels like it's the

national electorate. so it could be that kind of test though when you make it a caucus it's less so. >> data from last time, the electorate was overwhelmingly white. date did show one thing very distinct, 25% of the people were mormon. 88% voted for mitt romney. i'm curious to see, rubio is one of romney's favorite candidates. i wonder before nevada if ann romney, josh romney, some way romney is able to hint i don't love ted cruz, my guy is rubio. >> have you seen evidence where romney people are whispering like that? >> not yet. romney's people in the state and the guy who won the caucuses for rom n. overwhelmingly is running jeb bush's campaign. jeb bush's campaign is very well-organized here. but to what end? i think they're frustrated. >> right. so i think that's the problem. but there's not been a big presence yet of romney folks going to rubio.

i do think, and perry said numbers accurately, a quarter of the turnout being mormon is going to matter if that's what it is, if they'll have the same enthusiasm when an actual mormon matter if that is what it is, if they have the same enthusiasm. that could be a huge percentage of the caucus turnout. they will get out there and vote and many are going to vote for marco rubio. >> when i was las vegas for the debate they talk about caucus being organizational test. it could be about national momentum and not what is going on with the ground game. it could get swept up in something before super tuesday. >> do you buy that? >> i think that's possible. i think while organization does matter in a caucus especially a caucus that is so weird the way ours is with the two hours in some counties.

the weather may be awful and could change the turnout. but organization might not be as important. let's take another scenario if trump is still doing well. the guy has 5 million twitter followers. what if he starts tweeting out caucus locations. who knows on that one? >> the republican side i think we know is almost going to be -- we have gone through it pretty deep and know how dominant the mormon vote will be. the democratic side is heavily hispanic. heavily labor, a lot of unions. is there anyway bernie sanders breaks through here. he is popular with labor but doesn't do so well with hispanics. >> bernie sanders came into the state very late. they started to open up a bunch of offices. they had a campaign manager quit and inserted somebody else.

hillary clinton has been in this state for six or eight months now. they hired the right people from the obama and clinton campaigns. they have both sets of people working it. they don't have yet the indoersment. as you remember the culinary union is about 56% hispanic. it is not yet indoersed. most people endorsed obama and clinton ended up winning the state. obama understood the caucus system and got more delegates. they learned now the caucuses are important, all the comments about how they don't like caucuses are gone. they know how to organize now. it will take a miracle for sanders to win here. >> he will do better there. the majority of the voters are black he is not going to win there. very fast, a bunch of

republicans are wondering who is he going to go with? the assumption has been rubio. when does he make that decision? >> i don't think he will make it until voting starts or right before voting starts. he met with four candidates while the debate was taking place. he is still very impressed with marco rubio. what he wants more than anything is to be with the winner, not just in the nomination but in the general election. he thinks, i believe, that marco rubio is the most viable general election candidate. >> i'm sorry that you don't get to spend new year's worrying about whether michigan wolver e wolverines are doing anything in the football playoffs. >> maybe next year. >> when we come back final thoughts on the road to 2016. weeks away from the february foursome all weigh in with what to watch for in january. we'll be right back. huh.

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when you're on hold, your business is on hold. that's why comcast business doesn't leave you there. when you call, a small business expert will answer you in about 30 seconds. no annoying hold music. just a real person, real fast. whenever you need them. so your business can get back to business. sounds like my ride's ready. don't get stuck on hold. reach an expert fast. comcast business. built for business. let's wrap things up here. this has been fun. final thoughts on this february foursome. you get to go first because -- >> you might have. look, we brought this up at the beginning. there are four questions as we go into this. the most important starts with this, donald trump. who are his voters? do they show up?

what does donald trump do if and when he loses? does he stay in or tank out of it? what change is it that republican primary voters are looking for? they don't want an establishment candidate. do they want somebody to shake it up a little bit without breaking everything in the mix. are we going to finally see a fight between trump and other candidates whether trump after cruz, bush after trump, something is going to start. >> amy is conceding that trump is going to -- >> i think january i'm curious what the republican party does, naut candidates, mitt romney, john mccain. >> you think it is choosing time in january? >> i don't know if they are capable in choosing or confident enough to choose and be right. i'm curious to see if donald trump and ted cruz, they think they will endanger the house and the senate. they want somebody else.

does mitt romney have the courage to say i'm for rubio or christie. >> the minute that happens bad news for rubio. his numbers might go down. >> we are looking at a potential protracting primary fight. we talk about early states being important and they are critical for momentum purposes and buzz. you have to have a national campaign these days. super tuesday will matter. you have to be on tv and have an organization nationally. >> here is what i'm trying to picture on caucus night. ted cruz wins. what's the bigger story? what does donald trump do if he doesn't win iowa? how does he handle it? what is the bigger news story? ted cruz winning or donald trump losing? that sets up new hampshire and everything else. >> i agree. >> this was great. happy new year, merry christmas. good to have you on the team,

team nbc. mtp daily every week day at 5 p.m. if it is a day of the week somehow meet the press is making good television y. can't wait for january. it is 6:00 p.m. on the east coast and midnight throughout much of europe. in munich authorities are dealing with what local police say is an active terror threat warning people to stay away from two train stations. it is unclear how serious the threat is. we also have an update on dramatic fire. police say the blaze started on the 20th floor of the hotel and spread. american eyewitness was evacuated from a nearby hotel and