nobody saw it coming. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. if you think you have 2016 figured out how well did you do

predicting 2015. let's take a look back over the past 12 months. we begin with the wlil man of the year. the 1938 was hitler. stalin the next year. it is not about nice guys finishing first. this year you talk about the man that rocked american politics it has to be trump, the good, the bad and ugly. he dominated with the tonnage and sass of his soaring mega towers. we know about him. what can we get from it? is it plausible that a majority of republican delegates next summer will vote for this guy? in a word, yes. my colleagues a special round table with the global editorial director of "huffington post," susan page and the washington post columnist eugene robinson. we begin with rocket propellant

that fuelled trump's rise with republican voters. his unrivalled brand of nationalism is a one-two punch. >> they are bringing drugs, they are bringing crime. they are rapists. i would build a great wall and nobody builds walls better than me every time mexico sends people over we charge mexico $100,000 for every person. >> they have to go. >> they have to go. either have a country or we don't have a country. i want surveillance of certain mosques. i watched when the world trade center came tumbling down. i watched in jersey city, new jersey where thousands and thousands of people were cheering. donald j. trump is calling for a total and complete shut down of

muslims entering the united states until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on. >> we have a country or don't. that seems to be the common thread. when he seemed to have broken through the membrane of what would be unacceptable, when he said we keep muslims from getting into the country that exploded for three or four days and then it seemed to mellow down a bit like we stopped talking about it all the time and then he won. he left a flavor of i'm the toughest guy met. >> what happened with the latest example is the same thing that happened with the previous ones which is a sense of going too far. this is a bridge too far. this will have a reaction. it did not apparently hurt his support in the polls or his position in the republican party. if anything his position in the republican electorate seems to

be getting stronger. >> i don't know the mathematical algorit algorithm. he doesn't seem to pay the price for one thing. it is all part of this i'm as tough as they come. >> he kind of creates his own reality, his own atmosphere. i don't think it's that scientific it's instinct. he has a sense of what his supporters will respond to. and in my understanding of how he came up with the muslim comments it was him. it was strong. >> he is not fighting it out between hillary and bernie. i think he listens with his tongue which is an old expression. he talks and he is watching the crowd reacting to every syllable. you got it. and the other guy says what do they get? he is always testing.

>> that is because he is a master salesman. that is what he did in new york. he was selling dreams and soaring towers. >> how is he picking up on people? >> he is a great street sales person and he seems to have a particular sense for fear, for when people are weak and when they feel afraid. he can use that to attack people which he does or use it to reassure people. what he is saying -- >> he finds the weakness but he can turn that around because he understands the fear among voters and the fact is voters especially republicans are afraid of the outsider and the other. he began with the birther theme in 2012. then the next circle. now the next circle is muslims. and, again, every time he does it within his orbit it works. >> i think most men when we are afraid whenever we get afraid we get mad that somebody made us afraid. we know all this.

i think he knows that. right after your fear you go damn that guy for making me afraid. >> i think he -- anger is out there. before the latest terrorist attack there was just generalized anger among predominantly white, college educated republican voters. and he has capitalized on it and exploited it. >> this is a moment that fits trump. not every election year would be a good moment for trump. this is a time when a lot of americans especially working class americans have seen stagnant wages for a decade or three decades. a time when people are concerned about self-inspired terrorists. people are mad at the government. so it's a moment that fits the skills. >> and they are mad at the republican establishment. >> like the president said this year when he said can't do much

about lone wolf. the public doesn't want to hear about that. >> donald trump is a version of the lone wolf. he is the lone singular personal answer. he is saying i am the simple answer. >> what is your phone number for donald trump to call you right now? >> he can call me. that is his attitude. >> trump began by questioning the president's birth place and constitutional legitimacy. his ridicule has thrived in this campaign. >> amen. we have a problem in this country. it's called muslims. we know our current president is one. you know he is not even an american. >> we are looking at that and plenty other things. >> can you imagine being comfortable if a muslim became president of the united states? >> some people say it already happened. of course, you wouldn't agree with that. >> radical islamism, refuses to

say it. there is something going on with him that we don't know about. >> is donald trump honest when he says that barack obama isn't a legitimate president. >> i don't answer it because if i do answer it it is all people want to talk about. >> you will have to answer it. >> catholics believe in confession, you say you are wrong and move on. you believe -- >> i think he was peeling ethically. i think it's whatever it is. >> father matthews you did a good job of trying to get him to the confessionalism. >> why won't he drop it? >> it is at the core of his pitch. it is fear of the other, fear of

the outsider. immigrant who will take away your job, the secret muslim president. people migrating so they can bomb the united states. that's exactly what he is playing to. he is the answer. >> he was a birther long before a candidate for president and long before it appeared to anyone that he could be a candidate for president. >> i asked him if he wanted to take the oath for office. is this a level of bizarreness? is he asserting a truth? what is he saying? >> the fact that i can't think of a single example of donald trump correcting himself or acknowledging something. that is part of his appeal. i think there are supporters who say of course he was wrong. i like the fact that he wouldn't back down. >> teddy roosevelt talked about speak softly but carry a big stick. this guy is the opposite.

he is waving around the biggest stick he can find. >> show time quality like nothing recently. performances. here we go. >> it's like puppets. bing, bing, bang, bang. old days bing, bong. you know what that is. i'm used to dealing with killers. how would you fight isis mr. trump if you are president? i would bomb the [ bleep ] out of them. i don't wear a toupee. it's my hair. i swear. it moves this way. it moves this way, that way. what a group. >> it's not just he is beating jeb lon kinds of ways. jeb is not putting on any show.

>> he is an entertainer of considerable skill. the last debate, jeb attacks him and trump with facial expressions. >> tell me something i don't know about him. >> win or lose his name is going to be mud. they are pulling products off shelves. >> who is that? >> in the oil rich kingdoms of the persian gulf. >> trump. >> let's stick with the name thing. his name was drumpf. when he immigrated to the united states they dropped the d to a t and when his grand father became a citizen he dropped the f and became trump. >> and your point? >> interesting. >> his family is immigrants.

that is a larger point. he wanted to do this forever. the new book about george h.w. bush unearthed the fact that donald thought he was the guy who should have been h.w.'s running mate and he really made an effort to get on that ticket. >> you think he would have been better? couldn't be worse. >> another show. coming up, eight years after her loss to barack obama, is the country ready for hillary clinton now? a look at the democratic front runner as she fends off a challenge from the left. this is "hardball," place for politics. try the superior hold...

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welcome back. after a bruising defeat in 2008 hillary clinton is back in the presidential arena. she started off the year 2015 in the same position she will end it as the democratic party's front runner. everything in between wasn't so good for the former secretary of

state. "new york times" reported hillary used a personal e-mail account at the state department and later revealed it operated under a private server. here was her response. >> when i got to work as secretary of state i opted for convenience to use my personal e-mail account which was allowed by the state department because i thought it would be easier to carry just one device for my work and for my personal e-mails instead of two. looking back, it would have been better if i had simply used a second e-mail account and carried a second phone, but at the time this didn't seem like an issue. >> the scrutiny over e-mails was only the beginning. it was a cruel summer as she faced a relentless press corps determined to find out whether she broke the rules or mishandled classified material. >> are y'all ready? tell me something i don't know. >> i have said repeatedly i want the e-mails out.

>> everything i did was permitted. there was nothing that did not give me the full authority to decide how i was going to communicate. previous secretaries of state have said the same thing. i wasn't that focussed on my e-mail account. by the way you may have seen i recently launched a snap chat account. i love it. i love it. those messages disappear all by themselves. >> did you try to wipe the whole server? >> i have no idea. that is why whee turn it over. >> did you wipe the server? >> like with a cloth or something? >> is this an indication that this issue isn't going to go away? >> nobody talked to me about it other than you guys. >> did you make a mistake? >> i did. as i said, it was allowed and

there was no hiding it. it was totally above board. everybody in the government i communicated with. that was a lot of people knew i was using a personal e-mail. >> you know, every time we talk about hillary it seems like she is an ink spot and you tell everybody who you are when you talk about her. these conversations go on and on. is there anything there or nothing there. >> i think what that tells you is that she lacks some political instincts. she has great strengths as a candidate. the progression she had to go through on first choosing to use a private e-mail server and then the progression trying to explain it shows that it just took her forever to get to the place where she should have started which is this was a mistake. we'll make it right. >> who was in the room with her?

we knew there was a georgia mafia, who is the mafia around hillary clinton when she is in trouble she goes what do i do now? is it john papad esta? >> i actually think if there were one conciliary it would be bill. >> is that the way we can report it that she knows phone number to the guy and when something hits the wall and she goes how do i get out of this one he calls him? >> as he did with her when he got in trouble except for some certain periods of scandal his closest and most trusted adviser was her. it is not a bad thing. one problem hillary clinton has is there is not one room with advisers. she has a whole castle full of rooms with so many advisers. >> what is the down side?

>>voices. >> the last voice heard could be compelling. >> she gathered literally generations of advisers around her now. there is no question that bill clinton some of those people are at the very core of it. bill clinton is number one. there are questions about what kiepd of public role he plays cht how much he campaigns and how visible he is. that is a matter of tactics. in terms of who at the end of the day she talks to. >> i would want bill clinton. >> former president with political skill. >> hillary clinton fought her way back to the top with two commanding performances in october. everybody agrees on this. hillary clinton exceeded expectations that first democratic debate. here she is taking on bernie sanders on the issue of guns. >> is bernie sanders tough enough on guns. >> not at all. we have to look at the fact that

we lose 90 people a day from gun violence. this has gone on too long and it is time the entire country stood up against the nra. the majority of our country -- [ applause ] -- supports background checks and the majority of gun owners do. senator sanders did vote five times against the brady bill. since it was passed more than 2 million prohibited purchases have been prevented. >> a few days later she sat through a marathon day of testimony and succeeded in confronting gop lawmakers probing. >> i recognize that there are many currents at work in this committee, but i can only hope

that the statesmanship overcomes the partisanship. at some point we have to do this. it is deeply unfortunate that something as serious as what happened in benghazi could ever be used for partisan political purposes. i would imagine i thought more about what happened than all of you put together. >> i thought it was compelling testimony. >> the back-to-back clips showed hillary at her strongest as a political figure. she signaled to bernie sanders you want to fight i'm going to fight. i'm here. i'm here. so she got the right angle on the substance of the gun issue. it was also an issue to bernie that i think was heard by bernie. that is number one. on this other thing because the benghazi committee did not have a smoking gun in terms of an e-mail or incident that they

could draumatize that allowed hillary the range to do that appeal to patriotism and bipartisanship. the woe is me. those back-to-back things -- >> tell me something i don't know about hillary. >> she apparently puts tabasco sauce on everything. >> is that arkansas? >> that is southern, certainly. that can make her the second black president. a good idea to sprinkle some of that on political discourse. >> very interesting metaphor. we know she is a brainiac. did you know that she failed the dc bar in the summer of 1973. the group that took the bar 67%

of them passed. >> that gets to something interesting about it. although she is a brainiac and prepared is unstoppable. sometimes she doesn't prepare. >> she doesn't talk about her. i would use this as an example of how i am human. i failed and got back up. she comes across as so smart and perfect. this is an example of something that could have happened to a lot of people. >> she failed her bar in iowa in 2008. she wasn't prepared. and this time i know from a reporter on the ground we have a great reporter who said hillary's organization in iowa is unbelievable, unbelievably strong. bernie is going to challenge her because bernie has the progressives. in terms of organization nobody has seen anything like it on the democratic side. the doctor is in. look at the rise of ben carson and his unconventional candidacy for republican nomination. this is "hardball," the place

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welcome back to "hardball." dr. ben carson is one of the more confounding candidates, a world famous neurosurgeon with no experience in politics. carson gained popularity in the tea party circles for his attacks on president obama. >> obama care is really i think the worst thing that has happened in this nation since slavery. >> i have been told that he said we are living in a gustapo age. what do you mean by that? >> very much like nazi germany. i don't care about political correctness. >> i think i would use the bully pulpit to help people realize what we have in common. what has been used for is to create wars, a war on women,

race wars, any kind of anything involving people of two different races. >> you think being gay is a choice? >> absolutely. >> why do you say that? >> because a lot of people who go into prison go into prison straight and when they come out they are gay. >> went so far as to compare president obama to a psych opath. >> obama, you refer to him as a psychopath. >> i said he reminds me of a psycho path. >> how? >> they tend to be extremely smooth, charming people who can tell a lie to your face. >> dr. carson told the "washington post" heent wotone down his rhetoric. i will continue to say what i normally say. people say you said nazi, dog, slavery and operating on a very immature level. i'm hoping to get to a place where people are mature enough

to think i didn't like the analogy but i like what he is trying to say. we are back. let me start with susan. this just smattering of crazy talk of stuff that isn't true. >> interesting how much the tone you use effects. some things are as outrageous as things that donald trump has said but says it with a mild manner. they come across in a mild way. they have a significant support from evangelicals. >> the mood is darker and nastier than it was if he was the nicer donald trump people don't want the nicer donald trump. they want donald trump. >> that's nice to know. carson has been criticized for foreign policy prescriptions. at a debate he layed out a simpler approach to destroying isis. >> we are talking about global

jihaddest and their desire is to destroy our way of life. we have to say how do we make them look like losers. i think we have to destroy their caliphate. and you look for the easiest place to do that it would be in iraq. and outside of iran there is an energy fill. take that land from them. we can do that i believe fairly easily y. learned from talking to several generals. >> he made this statement about the chinese that sent fact checkers wild. >> we must recognize it is a complex place. the chinese are there as well as the russians. you have all kinds of factions there. >> i think that is one place the chi92 nese aren't. one said nobody has been able to sit down and have him get one iota. it's like they don't try to

build them up. it doesn't happen. >> and it doesn't take. we saw his support go way up. he was leading donald trump briefly and then came down some and seemed to be heading in that direction. i think it is because he shows such comprehensive ignorance about foreign policy and doesn't inspire confidence because a lot of what he says even casual observers realize it is nonsense. >> his off told stories have come under scrutiny including violent episodes from his childhood. >> what kind of outrageous things are you questioned on. >> that was probably the most outrageous. i accidently put a gash in

somebody's forehead. >> no one seemed more confused by the political dynamics than carson's republican rival, donald trump. >> if you try to hit your mother over the head with a hammer your poll numbers go up. i never saw anything like it. this is a strange election. you stab somebody and the newspapers say you didn't do it. and you said yes i did. i did it. no you didn't. yes, i did. i stabbed him and it hit the belt. they said you didn't do it. if they said i didn't do it i would be so happy. this is the only election in history where you are better off if you stabbed somebody cht what are we coming to? >> perhaps nothing carson has

said has been mocked harder than his statement about ancient egypt. >> my own personal theory is that joseph built the pyramids in order to store grain. all the archeologists think they were made for the pharaohs' graves. i don't think it would disappear to store that much grain. >> that was taped from a 1998 speech. carson stands by those views. >> do you still believe joseph built the peyramids to store grain? >> it is a plausible explanation. i happen to believe a lot of things you may not believe because i believe in the bible. >> susan, you have to do this one. the pyramids were built as tombs to pharaohs to after life.

it is all there for a purpose. there is no grain in there. >> that's your theory. >> just when you think it is very religious and about the after life. >> trump has defied all our political history. carson is fitted. had a surge of support, questions were raised. he didn't do a good job answering including about capability to be commander in chief. in this way it is familiar like a series of the 2012 republican candidates. >> tell me something about dr. carson we don't know? >> he said some really controversial things about guns that everybody should have guns and if we have more guns fewer shootings. he was a good marksman in high school. he was in rotc and scored high marks. >> west point material. >> well -- maybe, maybe not.

that is your theory. >> it is consistent. >> he is a very famous doctor. >> i knew him long before i hired him as a politician. >> and he does not believe in the theory of evolution. he says humans are too complex. the morality of the human race is too much to think it evolved from something else. >> all those things we studied, kingdoms of animals and forms of life and species he doesn't believe in any of that. >> which is very widely accepted by scientists but not boy this scientist. up next, feeling the burn. bernie sanders makes an unlikely bid for the democratic nomination drawing crowds of tens of thousands along the way. you're watching "hardball," the place for politics. >> i'm alex trebek. if you're age 50 to 85, i have an important message about security. write down the number on your screen,

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here is what is happening. a massive fire broke out at an upscale skyscraper. the u.s. consulate general is seeking information about whether injured are u.s. citizens. in new york a man is under arrest for allegedly plotting a new year's machete attack at a restaurant. tonight's celebrations in rochester have been cancelled. now back to a special edition of "hardball." welcome back to "hardball." donald trump wasn't the only political surprise this year. by the summer of 2015 many democrats were feeling the burn as bernie sanders campaign drew large crowds from portland, oregon to springfield mass in

new england. >> the billionaire class must be told loudly and clearly that they cannot have it all, that our government belongs to all of us, not just a handful of billionai billionaires. [ cheers and applause ] super packs funded by billionaires buy elections. we have to stop worshipping people who make billions and billions and billions of dollars. it is not acceptable that billionaire families are able to leave virtually all of their wealth to their families without paying a reasonable estate tax. >> by september with message in questions sanders outpolled hillary clinton 43-36. just a few weeks later one line in the first democratic debate

had him seeming more friend than foe to hillary clinton. >> let me say something that may not be great politics. i think the secretary is right. and that is that the american people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn e-mails. >> me, too. >> you know. >> one of the debate moments that will be remembered and perhaps regretted by him. i thought that -- i know i'm a political type. everybody knows that. i think you have to look like you are fighting, like she did when it came to the gun issue. that's not the issue that separates. she was going to use it to let him know it. why didn't he say it is not my issue but it is going to cause you a problem and getting elected so it goes? >> i have no idea. must be principle. >> talking about issues. >> his polls have gone down since then. >> the polls went down. i think that is one huge reason the polls started going down.

looked like he wasn't going to fight for the nomination or fight her for the nomination. the other i think really important moment was when larry david played him on saturday night live rr because it did something to the campaign and characterized the campaign. >> caricatureized. >> we're doomed. we need a revolution. millions of people on the streets and we got to do something and we got to do it now! >> i think you are right. i think larry david did bernie sanders better than bernie sanders did and not to the benefit of bernie sanders. i think bernie is a fighter. i think if he was going to fight he had to take the case to hillary clinton all the way along. i know why he didn't do it. his brand is i'm above normal politics. of course, the paradox is if you want to win you have to get in normal politics. bernie's refusal to do that

doomed him. >> what will happen to his issue? >> some of it seeped into the rest of the democratic party. i think he has had an influence on this campaign. i think in reality has helped move hillary clinton to the left although not so far to the left that she can't get back to the right in the general election. i think there is a lasting influence. >> i think he is losing the battle to get the nomination. in many ways he won the war to change what the democratic party was going to stand for. it has demonstrated the energy of this party is more progressive than hillary clinton would have predicted. >> democrats don't -- when it comes to certain figures they don't dislike people that don't make it. they like them. there is a real popularity -- >> first of all, i i think there

is a chance that bernie could pull off an upset in iowa. i think the more important point is continuing conversation that this with the left and the democratic party is not had ending in iowa and new hampshire. she has bernie to deal with and elizabeth warren. the conversation and pressure will continue. >> because of the way the wages have stiffened up. tell me something i don't know about bernie? >> he is not a nice guy. he looks like -- he is angry and like your lovable uncle. he is not a lovable fellow. he is a prickly guy. he believes deeply in himself and doesn't suffer fools at all. >> anything else? >> we all know he is not a democrat. he never belonged to a party except one, something called liberty union party. >> round table is sticking with us. the man who led the government shutdown crusade waupts to be

president. ted cruz is running as an outsider. he might have the inside track to the nomination. this is "hardball," the place for politics. we live in a pick and choose world.

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asked so far in this debate illustrate whooit american people don't trust the media. . and you look at the questions. donald trump, are you a comic book villain? ben carson, can you do math? john kasich, will you insult two people over here? marco rubio, why don't you resign? jeb bush, why have your numbers fallen? how about talking about the substantive issues people care about? [ cheers and applause ] >> well, as a freshman senator elected from texas in 2012, ted cruz established himself as an anti-washington demagogue in the mode of joseph mccarthy when he explicitly suggested the secretary of defense nominee chuck hagel might have taken money from north korea. >> i will point out that right now this committee knows absolutely nothing about the personal compensation chuck hagel received in 2008, 2009, or 2010. it is at a minimum relevant to

know if that $200,000 that he deposited in his bank account came directly from saudi arabia, came directly from north korea. and i have no evidence to suggest that there is or isn't. >> as a social conservative cruz has played his cards well in the crucial state of iowa but he made national news when it came to making birth control accessible to women. here's how he criticized the democrats' charge that republicans are waging a war on women when it comes to contraceptives. >> jiminy cricket, this is a made-up, nonsense example. last i checked, we don't have a rubber shortage in america. but look, when i was in college, we had a machine in the bathroom. you put 50 cents in and voila! >> you know, i don't know. sometimes tmi. trump talking about his belt, a knife going around it. and this guy. do we need to know about his rubber machine? >> you're going to need to know about him because i think in the

year 2015 besides donald trump the person who advanced the most politically, given where he started, was that guy, ted cruz. he is positioned to be the beneficiary of any problems that happen with donald trump. he is, as you said, he's organized in iowa in a way no republican ever has been. they've rented dozens of apartments in iowa so that their volunteers can have places to be when the caucuses are coming along to organize. the organization he's done, the focus he's done, the shameless exploitation that he's carried out has put him in a strong position. >> well, his brand of partisan demagoguery was on full display after the planned parenthood shooting in november, when cruz told radio host hugh hewitt that most crime in this country is committed by democrats. >> you know, every time you have some sort of violent crime or mass killing, you can almost see the media salivating, hoping,

hoping desperately that the murderer happens to be a republican so they can use it to try to paint their political enemies. now, listen, here's the simple and undeniable fact. the overwhelming majority of violent criminals are democrats. the media doesn't report that. >> no, i guess we're guilty of that, baby. i mean, i don't think i've ever done that calibration. your thoughts about this. >> it's a ridiculous thing to say. i don't know where he gets that from. >> how many people think we might end up with a cruz-trump fight? >> i think it's quite possible. >> i think it is the most likely final outcome. >> big fight -- across the south. >> that's why i said, in this year he's advanced from nowhere more than anyone. >> i think trump travels better than expected down south. i think it's more homogeneous than we think. the southern voters might like his style. coming up in the year of voter frustration is the brash new jersey governor the right choice to run on the republican ticket

after finding himself at the bottom of the pack? chris christie is making gains in new hampshire right now, hoping to earn a ticket to south carolina. you're watching "hardball," the place for politics. >> important message for women and men ages 50 to 85. please write down this toll-free number now. right now, in areas like yours, people are receiving this free information kit for guaranteed acceptance life insurance with a rate lock through the colonial penn program. if you're on a fixed income or concerned about rising prices, learn about affordable whole life insurance with a lifetime rate lock

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we're back with howard, susan, and eugene. many republicans have pinned their hopes of stopping donald trump on new jersey governor chris christie. as a brash and outspoken force within the party, he's getting a second look now among those who think his tough guy persona can actually take the fight to trump. tell me something you don't know

about this guy anyway. >> look, he scored well in recent debates. and so there's a -- this whole muslim controversy, chris christie appointed a muslim as a state judge in new jersey and defended him against criticism. he could perhaps be a louder voice i think in this republican field against the kind of anti-muslim bigotry we've seen. >> that's good. >> if you're thinking about something you may not know about chris christie, you get a two for one. if he gets elected. he was class president at the university of delaware. his successor was his wife. >> chris christie is the liberal in the race. you're looking at the liberal. and i think that's a remarkable thing. the fact the big newspaper in new hampshire endorsed him, they picked him out not so much because of ideology but because they thought he had experience as a real governor and also that he could take on donald trump. but i think he's reluctant to do it. i have not seen chris christie really get in there and do it, and i actually don't think he's going to because he'd like to

get on the ticket. >> you think he might be a bridge to the 20th century republican party? >> i don't know. not that bridge. >> thank you, howard fineman, susan page, and eugene robinson. to you our viewers, we wish you the very best holiday season. from all of us at "hardball," happy new year.

♪ due to mature subject matter, viewer discretion is advised. ♪ an inmate takes his fights from the streets to the halls of the jail. >> [ bleep ]. >> and his boyhood friend follows his example. >> did you guys not start this fight? but you did finish it? >> two brothers turn to crime to support their habits. >> how did you rob someone with a rock? >> you hit someone with it reallyd