i will be out of the office until monday and won't be checking voicemail during this time. i'll reply just as soon as i get back to work." sail with princess cruises, the number one cruise line in alaska. limited alaska fares from $699. call your travel consultant or 1-800-princess. princess cruises. come back new. as we start out the new year the election is on everyone's mind. according to a new poll donald

trump is the candidate that americans would least want to have as their neighbor. it makes sense because he would build a massive wall between your yards and make you pay for it. all right. good morning. >> how are you? >> it's tuesday, january 5th. welcome to "morning joe." >> yeah. >> hi, mike. you better save your money. with us on set -- you're in trouble. that was like -- you were so sure of yourself. >> i'm setting 25 cents a day aside. >> here's the deal. >> save your freaking money. >> six months ago, mika, let's set it up. >> go ahead. >> six months ago mika said trump would win the republican nomination. and they bet a pickup truck. >> so when does this happen? >> got to do it after the

convention. >> yeah. >> because that's going to be a crazy convention, harold, isn't it? >> it will be interesting. >> i was watching you last night and everybody is trying to figure out trump will lose. there's a good chance a meteor will hit. right at the very end, i still think trump has a chance. you look at these new polls out today, mika. >> they are going to give you a sense of exactly how deeply people feel about this candidate, those who support him. msnbc political analyst and professor at the university of michigan school of public policy, former democratic congressman harold ford jr. in washington we have republican pollster and columnist at the "washington examiner," christian anderson and mike barnacle is here with joe and willie and me. >> let's put more data into the machine. we wouldn't want to look at

actual numbers although we did four years ago. >> new national polling this morning on the state of the republican race, the nbc news/survey monkey shows donald trump 17-point lead over his nearest rival to ted cruz's 18%. marco rubio is third with 13%. ben carson at 9% and jeb bush at 6%. 80% of republicans decided say they are absolutely certain or likely to stay with their current choice of candidate. the poll finds that trump supporters are more set in their choice than the average republican voter. >> look at that. willie, that's 84% are saying that they are absolutely certain or there's a large chance they will stick with donald trump. that's four out of five, extraordinary a month out of the first primary. especially when mika said that ben carson supporters looked like they were at a bus stop just waiting to see what bus

they were going to get on. mika ended up being right. these trump supporters, if you're a trump supporter you're a trump supporter. >> people are looking for ways that donald trump will not win the nomination. projecting they don't want him to win the nomination. some trump supporters say they will vote for truch but wonmp b show up. >> this is a story right now, this now becomes as we get a month away from these elections, this becomes a story of the mainstream media and the republican establishment in washington, d.c. with their heads in the sand. and actively, actively denying the reality of millions of americans across the country that to support a guy that they find important. last night on the debut about

what about don rickles, with all due respect, they were asking carrville about trump. all i know is this we were driving and we drive past mississippi, biloxi and there were thousands and thousands and thousands of people lining up on the 2nd of january to go inside and 15,000 at least see donald trump speak that day. as carrville said, if they are doing that on the 2nd of january who in their right mind doesn't think they will drive by their post office or local school and spend three minutes when they spent three hours to hear donald trump. >> one of the more fascinating elements about the trump phenomenon, first of all, if it's ever going to be written

about, bill goldman, his great book about hollywood, nobody knows nothing. the phenomenon towards having watched it now for several months it began with the curious, people going out the see donald trump curious about him. last night lowell, massachusetts, ends up with the committed. they are fiercely committed. if he gets half the number of people who go to see him in these rallies, he will run away with this. >> critics say why do you show the trump crowds. you know why? we'll keep doing it until the mainstream media get it. people will show up at these rallies most likely going to spend ten minutes on the way to work in the morning or on the way home or since they are older retirees will go at 10:00, 11:00 and 12:00 and if they spend five

hours doing that they are going to vote. i'm so sick and tired of these people that are pretending that donald trump is going to disappear. the republican establishment in washington, d.c. are the worst offenders. far worst than the mainstream media. now it's the republican establishment in washington, d.c. who are the biggest offenders of this fantasy. >> sarah palin somehow plays a role in this misunderstanding of trump's ability to connect with serious people. and i think people were, you know, jubilant, especially in the establishment and the media when she was, her credibility was undermine very quickly. his credibility has not been undermine. it's only built and gained steam. >> harold ford, here's the problem with donald trump. the story about donald trump

that he's going to fade like herman cain. what donald trump is doing right now is what donald trump has been doing for 40 years on a different level. if you're a kid from queens, even if your dad was a kid from queens, good luck breaking into the manhattan real estate market. he's been sticking to the manhattan elite for 40 years. the most powerful people in the world, the richest people in the world. he's always been the outer boroughs guy. you know what's happened? his sky scrapers have flown up and put shadows on their little buildings and he's fixed their skating rink, done all of these things. my first agent was donald trump's agent when i came to town. my first agent told donald trump do not do "the apprentice." it will destroy your reputation.

it will destroy your career. i was there in real-time when this was happening. it will destroy your reputation. it will destroy your career. you'll make a fool of yourself. you're not a tv guy. you know what donald trump did? he was one of the most powerful agent around. he fired him. he did the tv show. donald trump has done this his entire life. and every single time he's ridi. >> consistent with that thinking, we've talked on this show you and mika have a lot, if he becomes the nominee, can he reach outside of the pool of supporters that he has now and draw from independents and moderates enough to win some upset including big republican thinkers, karl rove and others said they don't believe there's a group of voters out there that

were republicans in the past. the question becomes -- i was a nay sayer earlier. he's now 25, 26, 27 days away from pulling this off. if he wins the primary can he pull enough votes to beat hillary clinton. >> do you think he's smart enough to pivot a little bit and play to the different audiences he needs to play to. >> he's clearly smart. he wouldn't be where he is now. the question becomes can his persona survive that kind of broadening you're suggesting and hold on the kind of support he's been able to create and sustain up to this point is the question. >> if you look at the last three days and how the clintons have tied themselves up. yesterday they laid down like lambs. you know why? i know i'm going to catch grief. they are scared to death.

donald trump does not fight traditionally. he comes in swinging and did you see bill -- and hillary clinton go i made a new year's resolution right after he started talking about my husband's past in workplace settings with women, she didn't say that i'm not going to talk about donald trump. they completely backed off. that's the general election. i'm not saying he's is going to win but if he gets there, he's a south paw. they won't know how to fight him. >> a strategy the clintons came up with over the holidays. they won't take on donald trump head on. you quoted hillary clinton. bill clinton talking to andrea mitchell, you can see him bite his tongue. he put his head down, said -- felt he wanted to say something and side you know what i'm not going to go there. how long can they keep this up. if this is a general election match-up how long can you

anything for donald trump. >> nobody is smarter politically than bill clinton. no one is better than asymmetrical political warfare than donald trump. >> bill clinton has used this saying before that my grand mom used to say in rural georgia, never get into a fight with a pig you'll both get dirty and the pig will like it. the fact of the matter is donald trump, he doesn't care if people don't -- he doesn't have foundations where he goes around and people pat him on they'd and tell him he's jesus' only son. bill clinton -- >> he has himself to do that. >> bill clinton, he's got a reputation to pain taken as a senior statesman for the rest of his life. he doesn't want to get in the mud with donald trump. it does him no good. he'll lose that fight. >> that's right. you saw the overall number trump has. look at some of these specific

demographics. donald trump is leading among white evangelical republicans by 12 points over ted cruz. donald trump leads among very conservative self-described conservative republican voters 35-30. only marco rubio does better with republican women than he does with republican men. as you look at those numbers, donald trump has been criticized by some for not being a true conservative. but there you have it in that nbc poll. he's leading among very conservative republican voters. >> ted cruz has chosen not to try to take on donald trump. in fact it's not just the clintons also most of the folks on the republican side afraid to take him on. he doesn't look like the normal ideological adversary. they've run out of time. the cruz strategy was just wait, let trump fade and absorb all his supporters. that may not be working out.

if ted cruz doesn't win iowa the question is what does he do next. to joe's question, the last 40 years trump's m.o., i read "art of the deal" and if you're a card carrying member of the republican establishment and have not read it you need to pick up a copy today. trump has been laying out this strategy, you create conflict, draw attention through conflict, dream big, exaggerate, entertain and the populism is woven throughout this. this is not a new act for donald trump. the political angle and the way it's expressing it now may be different but he lays out this whole playbook in "art of the deal" over 30 years ago. >> marco rubio and his supporters -- i know you all agree with me. i exaggerate, create conflict, take risks. >> well, that's a politician's

handbook in many cases in in campaigning. he's just better at it. >> but the conflict part, politicians are taught to avoid conflict, avoid fights, stay away from battles. he does just the opposite. this is the most stunning thing here we are less than a month out. nobody is attacking donald trump. they are scared to. >> chris christie. >> you know why ted cruz is not attacking donald trump because they are fighting for second place now and they don't want to get killed. >> marco rubio and his supporters are fighting a multifront battle. a super p.a.c. attacked chris christie. christie fired back. >> chris christie could well be obama's favorite republican governor. why? christie's record. he instituted an internet sales

tax, supported common core even liberal energy policies. incredibly christie even backed obamacare's medicaid expansion. chris christie, one high tax common core liberal energy loving obamacare medicaid expanding president is enough. >> i guess i just wonder what happened to the marco who so indignantly looked at jeb bush and said i guess someone must have convinced you that going negative against me helps you. i guess that same person now convinced marco going negative against chris christie is what he needs to do. if senator marco rubio would show up to work once in a while, he needs to cast votes in the united states senate. if it's a worthless job as he said before he should resign it. if he doesn't he should show up and vote. >> that's evidence of what we said yesterday everybody is now attacking chris christie. why? because they think he's the guy that's surging in new hampshire. >> that comes as the war of

words between marco rubio and ted cruz heats up as well. here's rubio yesterday. >> we have isolationist candidates who apparently more passionate about weakening our military and intelligence capabilities than they are about destroying our enemies. they talk tough. yet they would strip us of the ability to keep our people safe. words and political stunts can't ensure our security. isis cannot be filibustered. while some claim they would destroy isis make the sands of the middle east glow-in-the-dark my question is with what? because they can't do it with the oldest and smallest air force we ever had. if isis had lobbyists in washington they would hatch spent millions to support the anti-intelligence law that was just passed with the help of some republicans now running for president. when i'm president, we're not is going to violate the civil lie

bitter -- liberties of americans. but we'll catch as many terrorists as we can. >> yesterday, rubio was firing in every direction. >> he was attacking everybody. >> cruz, jeb bush. he was going after everybody. >> final scene of butch cassidy and the sundance kid shooting at the entire bolivian army. >> it's the u.s. freedom act which passed back in june. among the yes votes were several rubio supporters, congressman trey gowdy. congressman darryl isom was a backer. in an interview yesterday cruz

compared rubio's foreign policy to that of barack obama and hillary clinton. saying quote we should protect the united states of america first. that means we shouldn't engaging the kind of military adventurism that has characterized barack obama and hick. >> yesterday it was noted that marco has said that ted cruz took a position that would actually be supported by isis if isis had lobbyists there. the problem is that position was also held by trey gowdy, kelly ayotte and a lot of supporters that marco rubio would like to get. >> marco rubio is trying fogs himself -- this assumes trump fades for some reason wyatt this point with less than four weeks -- with only four weeks to go seems ridiculous. the idea being these establishment guys are fighting

each other because they want to be the last one standing. they are willing to link one another to isis in service of the idea they would be the one standing at the end. what's risky about that, it's the most messed up example of game theory. all of these folks think i got to be the last one standing when trump fades so i'll take each other out. no one has an incentive to coalesce or let's be nice to each other and focus on trump. they see there's no incentive in fighting trump and the incentive is in fighting each other. >> can any of you wise men or women sitting at this table think of a time four weeks away from the first vote for a presidential election none of the candidates is going after the front-runner. they've taken for granted at this point it's not worth it to go after him. >> that's the genius of a strategy that i didn't

understand, that nobody understood. he killed john mccain. he went after mccain. he went after megyn kelly. he went after romney called him a loser. he went after rick perry. he went after lindsey graham. he did it unmerscifully. he pounded these people into the dust. he has now taught the field, if you come after me -- it's like the bill clinton thing. yes you can attack me but i don't really care because at the end of the day i'm worth $4 to $10 billion and i get back on my big jet and golf the rest of my life. i will destroy your reputation and bring up and list the five to ten women. he's done the same thing with republicans opinion yes you guys can attack me. i garage you if you do i'll spend the next 30 days destroying you and you won end up in second place.

it's pretty stunning. they are killing each other. >> throw jeb bush in there as well. he hammered him on low energy, low energy. >> actually jeb bush, i think that was the most effective attack of the entire campaign. he defined jeb bush. >> right away and it stuck. it just stuck. >> guys are giving very serious speeches about serious things and people are not listening or making light of it. whatever you want to say, what rubio is talk about, things that deserve litigation, deserve debate, deserve consideration you dismiss it bus trump gets up, has a different presentation, so candid and honest and authentic people are willing to listen and stand for hours in cold weather. >> go back to 1980 ronald reagan asked what's your strategy against the soviet union. when brilliant people can go on and on and give five hour speeches. ronald reagan said you know what my strategy is.

we win, they lose. he got elected. by the way, we won. they lost. >> coming up on "morning joe," tomorrow our interview with the two outsiders who have shaken up the presidential race, donald trump and bernie sanders will be our guests. and later this morning jeb bush joins us from the campaign trail. but first we'll get to hillary clinton's new year's resolution that joe was talking about as bill clinton comes back to a state where he declared himself the come back kid. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. are amerivest selects the funds and manages your portfolio. is it run by robots? no no, you can talk to a person anytime. 'cause i don't trust robots. right...well, if the portfolio you're invested in doesn't perform well for two consecutive quarters, amerivest will reimburse your advisory fees for those quarters. i wasn't born yesterday. well, actually it looks like you were born yesterday.

happy belated birthday. thanks. for all the confidence you need td ameritrade. you got this. in my business i cbailing me out my i.all the time... i'm not the i.t. guy. i'm the desktop support tech supervisor. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive. introducing real-time delivery notifications. learn more at myusps.com you're all set to book a flight using your airline credit card miles. and surprise! those seats sometimes cost a ridiculous number of miles, making it really hard to book the flight you want. luckily, there's a better way... with the capital one venture card. with venture, you'll earn unlimited double miles on every purchase, every day. and when you're ready to travel, just book the flight you want, on any airline,

then use your miles to cover the cost. now you're getting somewhere. what's in your wallet?

. 26 past the hour. former president bill clinton made his soldier judge debut on the campaign trail yesterday. speaking at two new hampshire events in support of his wife as she enters the final sprint to the first two nominating contests of 2016. so here's the former president talking about the political climate surrounding the race.

>> i don't fear any more. first of all i'm a happy grandfather, i'm not mad at anybody. and secondly i thought elections are supposed to be a job interview. and believe me it's important. a lot of elections are determined by just what they are about. every presidential election, people run and believe it or not it's kind of scary this year but believe it or not most everybody actually tries to do what they say they will do when they are running. they are telling you what they believe. and so you got to take them seriously. >> donald trump's recent attacks on his character is what he's talking about. here's what the candidate clinton had to say when asked about the republican front-runner yesterday. >> how do you feel about the kind of campaign donald trump is running, sir?

>> the republicans will have to decide who they nominate. how i feel is only relevant -- we're trying to win a primary. >> i'm interested in your response to donald's comment that you and president obama created isis. [ laughter ] >> i've adopt ad new year's resolution. [ laughter ] i'm going to let him live in his alternative reality and i'm not going to respond. >> so, mike barnacle, you know we talk about the clintons backing away from the fight. let's just forget that angle of it. it's pure politics. pretty smart move on both of their parts. i love what bill clinton said. they are ahead in the boll by 20 points. we still have a primary to win.

that's a brilliant thing to say. but focusing on what's in front much us, hillary clinton the same thing there. i'm not going take your bait. let's just keep talking about tissues and let the republicans worry about the republicans. >> she is operating on what is her best bet. her best bet is not to respond donald trump, be talking about iran, saudi arabia, isis, her strength. play her strong card. >> she's right now -- you look at all the markets, willie. she's the predominant favorite. identify had a lot of republicans behind closed doors why are we even doing this. hillary will win anyway. not being happy about it. so as that person, she should never -- it seems to me she's up 53 to 36 to 2 on the democratic side. you should never take the bait from a republican until she's running in the general election. >> you're probably right except

she has and the it for months and months. she's gone after donald trump prior to the new year's resolution. she's had no problem doing it up until now. >> i don't know why they don't see it coming. >> she has a fight on her hand in iowa and new hampshire whether it's strategy or not it's true she still obviously the overwhelming favorite to be the nominee. she has to win iowa and new hampshire. >> everybody talks about south carolina, hillary being stronger in south carolina, bernie not. but if bernie were to win iowa and new hampshire which is actually a possibility then certainly that changes the entire political landscape. and makes it a lot more of a fight than hillary clinton. hillary clinton want this thing to be over by march so she can start saving money and worrying about the general election. >> i agree. it's the bill cosbelicheck

thinking. she took on trump a little bit to show in that primary against sanders to show she can appeal to progressive voters, liberal voters in the party should align with her. as we get closer here, i think the president is right let republicans pick their nominee. there will be a bloodbath on the republican side even if trump wins this thing, established republicans will have to reconcile they've support or show support for trump and let republicans deal with that. she should stay where she is. i wouldn't veer at all. >> i wouldn't underestimate bernie sanders. >> you can't underestimate bernie. if he wins iowa and new hampshire, again the entire map is shaken. it's interesting, those it's in clintons best interest to avoid donald trump. donald trump spending the next month attacking the clintons would be the most brilliant

political move he could make because he will instead of just attacking republicans as he's done his closing argument is going after the clintons and saying things about the clintons that all republicans have grumbled about in private. >> it helps her when she attacks him. your point about bernie it pushes him to -- it helps mrs. clinton the more trump attacks her in this primary because it makes clear, to mika's point that bernie sanders still remai remains relevant in this thing. it positions her to win iowa and new hampshire. >> the arrow only goes one way. >> look what's in front of you i think it helps her if he continues to come after her. again i still believe like a lot of republicans do, i'm a democrat that if trump is the nominee, mrs. clinton is finding herself in a stronger position even though i heard some things you said, he may come after her on and her husband i'm not

convinced that stuff will stick. we'll have an opportunity see. seriousness, you can't pick up any paper how the middle east has been reshuffled and how things are reset because of the way we approach things. mr. trump has to answer those things and so will she. but with trump attacking her she's more formidable than sanders and who republicans worry the most about. >> attacking a woman, we talked about. still ahead, one lead rear spells trouble imagine what four of them are. ian bremer are here with risks and top ten hot spots for 2016. >> ten? there's more like 200. that i can fight psoriatic arthritis with humira.

humira works by targeting and helping to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to both joint and skin symptoms. it's proven to help relieve pain, stop further joint damage and clear skin in many adults. doctors have been prescribing humira for 10 years. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened, as have blood, liver and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. want more proof? ask your rheumatologist about humira. humira. this is my body of proof! with roc® multi correxion® 5 in 1. proven to hydrate dryness, illuminate dullness, lift sagging, diminish the look of dark spots, and smooth the appearance of wrinkles. high performance skincare™ only from roc®.

and smooth the appearance of wrinkles. the wolf was huffing and puffing. like you do sometimes, grandpa? well, when you have copd, it can be hard to breathe. it can be hard to get air out, which can make it hard to get air in. so i talked to my doctor. she said... symbicort could help you breathe better, starting within 5 minutes. symbicort doesn't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden symptoms. symbicort helps provide significant improvement of your lung function. symbicort is for copd, including chronic bronchitis and emphysema. it should not be taken more than twice a day. symbicort contains formoterol. medicines like formoterol increase the risk of death from asthma problems. symbicort may increase your risk of lung infections, osteoporosis, and some eye problems. you should tell your doctor if you have a heart condition or high blood pressure before taking it. symbicort could mean a day with better breathing. watch out, piggies! (children giggle) symbicort. breathe better starting within 5 minutes. call or go online to learn more about a free trial offer. if you can't afford

your medication, astrazeneca may be able to help. that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time

can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. 37 past the hour. the fall out continues following saudi arabia's execution of a shi'ite cleric over the weekend. overnight kuwait recalls their ambassador from iran. three other countries are siding with saudi arabia in severing or downgrading diplomatic ties with tehran. saudi arabia has stopped all flights to and from iran amid the mounting tensions. protests continue in iran and have also spread to india, iraq where demonstrators are denouncing the execution. iran's president condemned both

the executions and the attacks on the saudi embassy in tehran. let's bring in richard engel live in istanbul for more. richard? >> reporter: well, this crisis has just torn open the very deep divide between sunnis and shi'ites in the middle east and it really reflects why there's no strategy right now against isis. the main beneficiary from this tension between iran and saudi arabia is isis. the obama administration has been pushing for and has been having some success in the past getting iran and saudi arabia to agree to try to find some sort of diplomatic solution to the conflict in syria. all of that would go great ways to working against isis but those diplomatic efforts have now taken a back seat as there's this incredibly -- incredibly

mounting wave of tension between the sunni block that you just mentioned of now kuwait, bahrain which is led by a sunni monarchy, saudi arabia, sudan, uae against iraq. this is unexpected diplomatic problem. a big problem for the white house. a big problem for the strategy against isis. a big problem for finding a solution to the syrian conflict. >> richard engel, thank you very much. joining us now on the set, the president and founder of eurasia group, ian bremer. >> so, we heard richard say this was a surprise development but at the same time we've been hearing around this table for three years a continued expansion of iran's power spreading across the region, and you also have had a united

states that has been more focused on opening relations with iran. >> with iran. sure. >> at the same time barack obama saying, hosni mubarak has to go. i'm not blaming barack obama for anything here i'm just making an observation from all the sunni leaders and the sunni diplomats identify been talking to since 2009, this is not that much of a surprise to me. they feel like they are on their own. >> and they are on their own. i mean you got the uae, bahrain and sudan supporting the saudis here not even a majority of the gulf cooperation council members, where are the qataris, where is egypt. they welcomed russia in syria much to saudi surprise and

chagrin. they are much more worried about muslim brotherhood and islam. it doesn't play well for them in saudi arabia. pakistan, chinese are writing them big checks. if you're saudi arabia right now even knowing the united states son the cusp of implementing that iranian nuclear deal, you don't care if this timing is the unpleasant for the obama administration because you expressed your concerns about the iranian deal. much bigger problem for you or than israel. >> is saudis, uae, the gulf states feel like they are on their own and for the first time since the 1970s they don't have the americans to back them up. >> the gulf states mostly will hedge. if you're a country like qatar they will say we want to do business with saudi arabia. but if you're saudi arabia, you're isolated with $35 a barrel oil. >> so let me ask you this. if all you know and i know it's

an impossible question to answer and know for sure but with the executions were they more aimed at sending a message to iran or to isis? >> they were mostly aimed at sending a message to the saudi people because the saudi government now has had -- they just came from austerity in their budget. they are reducing their subsidys at home. >> the message being we are true believers. that's what i said about the isis part. more about isis or more about iran. >> this is more about -- they killed 47. 46 of them are sunni attached to al qaeda, attached to isis or so they say. obviously the round up was big. remember they rounded up hundreds and arrested and we weren't complaining then. they killed the one shi'ite. like the chinese they go after local corruption and get some americans. this was mostly a domestic message which makes this worse. if this was just sending a

message to iran the iranians could send it back. but if we don't know what keeps our regime together, the iranians are our enemy and americans won't help us that's a much more dangerous environment for the region. >> it is our best bet strategically and in the interest of the united states to go with iran in the long term, the long term being three to five years. >> over the longer term because it's a larger more diverse population and economy. you're going to see more investment. americans are producing oil at home. let's be year. the supreme leader is the one that said that there will be divine retribution for what the saudis have done. right after the saudis executed this guy suddenly you had demonstrations and fire bombing of the saudi embassy in tehran. >> did you just say it makes more sense for us to go with iran in the long run. >> yes. >> the epicenter of terrorism since 1979 and the people that

say they want to annihilate israel. >> yeah. by doing the iran nuclear deal likelihood the regime actually moves over time -- like cuba. cuba could stand up for sanctions for 50 years. they can't stand up to starbucks for five years. these ex-pats come in and. investment comes in. that's why the supreme leader is prepared to be larder line. the iranians and the saudis both have reasons for this conflict to be useful for them. never a good environment when you are trying to see no escalation. unfortunately in the united states our response has been we're very concerned about this. this we're very deeply concerned. >> what willie and i were just

saying. the ban ki-moon solution. >> david sanger has a front page piece in the "times." on occasion they amuse whether the united states and iran will constitute more natural allies than the united states and saudi arabia. let's get to your list. the eurasia top risk report for 2016. i'll hop to number one biggest risk, the hollow alliance. what it? >> it's global in the sense that last 75 years the most important alliance in the world underpinning security, economics, values, democracy, human rights such as they are was the transatlantic alliance and if you look today a lot of talk in the u.s. about foreign policy, about muslim, about building walls, about terrorism. not about the importance of this

relationship. feign look in europe our most important allies the brits are saying we need money the americans won't inveracity lot in here but the chinese will. we should hedge. the french say we need to deal with our own internal 9/11. the americans won't do much. the russians will. the germans say we have to deal with the refugee situation. the americans aren't doing nothing. >> does that not sound like eight years leading from behind. forget the ideology of it. but are historians not going to say this is a cost of barack obama being obsessed about not being george bush and dick cheney. >> obama win as have largely been -- you look at the iran nuclear deal, you look at cuba, the asia trade deal. when you look at the most important alliance in the world that's not a win. >> we go bed with iran and cuba. >> with the asians. the traditional allies in asia

feel more comfortable. obama will host ahe sasean. >> foreign policy is a challenge in this election precisely because if you look at america's top allies they are looking at the u.s. and the white house and saying we don't know what -- >> okay. >> by the way last night heard quickly, somebody just asked a question, i want an answer for our friend on the upper west side here. somebody said last night, you know, there's a divide now between republicans do they side with the iranians or the saudis. let me answer. there's no divide. the saudi, the saudis. the iranians are the enemy. number one enemies in the world. that's how republicans feel. >> ian bremer thank you very much. >> five years of starbucks republicans will change their tune on iran. watch that will happen. >> i will tell you this --

>> what your drinking this morning? >> this is a gambmblgamble. if you could change one state it would be iran. extraordinary history and extraordinary people. just a barbarian group of leaders. what a civilization it is. if they could turn. >> still ahead on "morning joe," i'll have what he's having. chairman of the house foreign affairs committee congressman ed royce will be here on set. "morning joe" will be back in a minute.

woah!

father, why can't we have directv like the macgregors do? we're settlers, son. we settle for things. like having cable instead of directv. hey, jebediah, how's it going? working the land. hoping for a fertile spring. all right. so we have to live with lower customer satisfaction? i'm afraid so. now go churn us some butter, boy, and then make your own clothes. yes, sir. (vo) don't be a settler. get rid of cable and upgrade to directv. call 1-800-directv. 51 past the hour. more than a month after terror take that left 14 people dead the offices of the england regional center in san bernardino, california reopened yesterday. the actual conference center

where the couple opened fire during a holiday gathering remains closed. later in the day county employees and thousands of others honored the victims where former mayor rudy giuliani spoke recalling his experience helping his city recover from the terror attacks of september 11th. >> i always hoped and prayed i would never be in front of an audience like this talking about the second worst attack in our history. they didn't beat you. they didn't accomplish your goal. their goal was not just to kill those people. their goal was to break us. their goal was to show they are stronger than we are. you defeat that goal by coming out of this as a san bernardino that is an example to the world of how strong people can be when they love each other. [ applause ] when they care about each other. >> you know just looking at rudy

there, it's a pretty remarkable thing about new york city. a lot of people feel the terrorists will win -- but new york has become a better city since those attacks. a greater city. like there's nothing that any new york politician could have done in a thousand years to make americans love this city more than they do. this turned from an other worldly place that americans resented and hated to a place wherever you go in america they love new york, they know it's on the front lines of terror, it's amazing what this city did. >> citizens around the world have been more so. >> around the world. this stiffs transformed by -- not by politicians, but by new yorkers. >> by the people. >> unbelievable. >> still ahead jeb bush joins us

live from new hampshire. "morning joe" is back in a moment. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like ordering wine equals pretending to know wine. pinot noir, which means peanut of the night. in my business i cbailing me out my i.all the time... i'm not the i.t. guy. i'm the desktop support tech supervisor. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive.

introducing real-time delivery notifications. learn more at myusps.com

your hair is still thinning. you may have inactive follicles. reactivate them with women's rogaine® foam. the only once a day treatment proven to regrow new hairs up to 48% thicker. revive your va-va-voom. and save $10. that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way

you experience tv. >> still ahead, all about data here on "morning joe." >> all about data. >> the new number out this morning that should give two think trump supporters won't turn out to vote for him might give him some manger pause. plus did chris christie make the most compelling argument yet

against donald trump nomination? "the washington post" thinks so and he explains straight ahead. also presidential candidate jeb bush joins us from the campaign trail. and from the white house, senior adviser valerie jarrett on the president's push to crack down on gun violence. "morning joe" is coming right back. hi! every mom is a coach... an artist... sometimes even a zoologist. every mom is a working mom... and it's working moms everywhere who inspired us to work harder. so we made our banquet meals even better. with mashed potatoes now made with real cream and chicken strips with 100% natural chicken breast. so now, there's more to love with banquet. now serving... a better banquet. [martha and mildred are good to. go. here's your invoice, ladies. a few stops later, and it looks like big ollie is on the mend.

it might not seem that glamorous having an old pickup truck for an office... or filling your days looking down the south end of a heifer, but...i wouldn't have it any other way. look at that, i had my best month ever. and earned a shiny new office upgrade. i run on quickbooks. that's how i own it. rheumatoid arthritis like me... and you're talking to a rheumatologist about a biologic, this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my pain and protect my joints from further damage. this is humira helping me reach for more. doctors have been prescribing humira for more than 10 years. humira works for many adults. it targets and helps to block a specific source of inflammation that contrubutes to ra symptoms. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened, as have blood, liver and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions,

and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. talk to your doctor and visit humira.com this is humira at work. what's that, broheim? i switched to geico and got more. more savings on car insurance? yeah bro-fessor, and more. like renters insurance. more ways to save. nice, bro-tato chip. that's not all, bro-tein shake. geico has motorcycle and rv insurance, too. oh, that's a lot more. oh yeah, i'm all about more, teddy brosevelt. geico. expect great savings and a whole lot more. glad i could help you plan for your retirement. alright, kelly and promise me that you'll try that taco place on south street. and we have portfolio planning tools

to help you manage your ira. yeah, you're old 401k give me your phone. the rollover consultants give you step-by-step help. no set-up fees. use your potion. sorry, not you. my pleasure. goodnight, tim. for all the confidence you need. who's tim? td ameritrade. you got this. . donald trump is still running for president. today he released his first television ad. this is part of his new year's resolution to be on tv more in 2016. and guess what? he's thinking about making

america great again. so this ad if you haven't seen it it's everything we've come to expect from donald. it's understated, thoughtful. it says trump will cut the head off isis, it doubles down on his plan to ban muslims from coming in to the country. trump is still the front-runner among republicans. we're finally in the election year. things are still very much up for grabs. only thing we know at this point about the republican nomination is that we shouldn't let steve harvey announce the winner. >> he had a great idea. >> these guys are in front of me. >> hold on a second. these guys that feel like they can go take over federal buildings, we have a great idea. why don't we send the chicago police department out there. right? see how they handle them. just send them out. >> again, like i said -- >> i'm wondering, i'm sorry -- if you're a black guy, right,

forget about taking over a building and you're like 16 years old in the wrong city, you're going to get shot. these dudes take over a federal property -- >> and giving interviews. >> and giving interviews. holding press currents. >> hey, hey, hey, attorney general, get them out. get a bulldozer and get them out. i will say the same thing for people that take over president offices at universities. fix bayonets at the end of rifles like they did in the '60s. if a black kid can't walk down certain streets in america without getting shot -- no, no -- >> please stop. >> show this. show this. why are these dudes -- why are they able to give interviews. they are breaking the law. by the way, i am proud of republicans on the campaign trail that are actually speaking

out against this. and they all are. this is rampant law breaking. it's insanity. harold ford jr. -- >> i've not heard mr. trump do it but i'll give credit to senators rubio and cruz. they both said this is wrong and these guys should be held accountable and pray for law enforcement officials who have to go in and deal with this. my point is i wish law enforcement officials the same approach,000 they treat these guys how they treat black kids across the country. >> black kids run away from them. >> here's the argument against not bull dozing. these guys don't martyrs for whatever their cause is. if you go in you have a ruby ridge or a waco -- >> i don't want a ruby ridge or a waco. >> they have said they are ready to kill and be killed. >> what's their cause? they are free loaders. they got away with it once. that's their cause. >> they have tear gas in oregon?

they took over a bird sanctuary in oregon. come on. >> thank you. that's good. right there is good. right there is good. that's it. >> get them out. they are on federal property. they are breaking the law. if they -- >> they said they invoke the constitution as their defense for what they are doing anthony federal property. >> here's a great thing. they can take it up in federal court. >> i would agree with you. >> they can live by the law the rest the 300 million americans live by the law. >> still with us on set, mike barnacle. former democratic congressman harold ford jr. and joining the conversation in washington msnbc political contributor and editor at the fix of the "the washington post" chris.

>> do you like my tie? >> i do. >> i put my tie on. if i had a t-shirt on underneath i look like a lutheran minister. sort of like mel gibson after he goes to church after beating the aliens. that whole swing for the events thing that was moving. did you like that? >> good flick. not as good as the sixth sense. >> i saw the last 20 minutes of the sixth sense, it's extraordinary. and by the way, if you haven't seen the sixth sense you should. he's dead. >> can we please do this? >> so can i ask a question? >> no, no! >> when can we talk about "star wars" and the "homeland." we live in this media culture if i start talking about how great "homeland" is everybody freaks

out. but like they had a finale. could we not just give him every award that could ever be given to an actor from "evita" to "princess bride." he was extraordinary in "evita." >> i haven't finished the season so i would ask -- "star wars" do whatever you want. >> you want to know what happens? >> no. >> i'll tell you what happens. >> no. >> mandy -- i want to meet that guy. very few people man i would love to meet. >> at seven past the hour i thought i would do the news. >> stop imitating them. >> new national polling this morning on the stand of the republican race. nbc news survey monkey weekly tracking poll find donald trump with a 17-point lead over his nearest rival.

35% to senator ted cruz 18%. marco rubio 13%. ben carson at 9 and jeb bush at 6. nearly 80% of republicans who have decided say they are absolutely certain or likely to stay with their current choice of candidate. the poll finds trump supporters are more set in their choice than the average republican voter, 51% saying they will not change their minds. that number is better than his top rivals, loin 36% of cruz voters say they are certain. 26% of rubio supporters say they are certain. trump leads across all demographics including with white evangelical voters 33% to 21% for cruz. trump's advantage over cruz narrows a bit with self-described very conservative voters, 35% to 30%. so a lot of people were wondering -- >> chris, you've been

converted -- >> to actually vote into a guy that believes trump could do this. it's a national poll. but these numbers are just, they are astounding. the 15,000 in biloxi. 20,000. even james carrville driving past what the hell is going on here. we're less than a month away now. these numbers are starting -- at some point we have to start believing them. >> i continue to be stunned. he was in lowell, massachusetts last night which is not exactly -- there's not a lot of places in massachusetts that are republican strongholds. lowell, massachusetts is not one of them. it's a pretty democratic area. the pictures and the images coming out, there were thousands -- i mean it is incredibly packed. well crowds at some level indicate enthusiasm, passion, people coming out on a cold night. you know, waiting in line to get into these events. there are big lines to get into these events.

i think it will all just blow over thing has to blow over, right. this is not, we're a month away from votes. i'm not suggesting he's certain to be the nominee but the idea that he's all of a sudden going to have sort of a ben carson-like rise and fall, we're well past that at this point. >> mike barnacle, lowell, massachusetts, a place you know very well, people started lining up at 10:00 a.m. in the morning. for a 7:00 p.m. show. look at these lines. 10:00 p.m. in the morning. and people are suggesting that those lining up for these speeches aren't is going to spend 15 minutes voting for him on election day. >> they are. >> i'm sorry, 10:00 a.m. in the morning. >> we spoke earlier. in the beginning of the trump phenomenon was curiosity. noits committed. they will stay with him.

they will vote for him. tinting thing about trump in lowell, 20 minutes from narjs chris christie yesterday in new hampshire began as he said he was going to do prior to christmas began to take on donald trump a little. and he was kind of effective. i watched part of his speech. he was kind of effective. >> look christie, the thing that i always kept christie as an asterisk as to who could possibly be a nominee he has the one thing that you need natural political ability and ability to communicate a message in a way that feels sort of honest, straightforward. he gave a speech yesterday, mike, that you're talking about. look, he's a very gifted, talented guy. i thought he made a smart argument against trump which is basically this. trump voters, i'm with you. i get the message. i'm angry too. things have failed. the country is in a bad place. but the messenger, donald trump,

is going to lose us the general election. right. he's trying to separate the message, the message of donald trump is incredibly powerful. you've seen jeb bush co-opt it. ted cruz trying to co-opt it. everybody trying co-opt it. the argument is fine the mess saks message. type hillary clinton into transcript much that chris christie speech, it's in there a ton of times and every time he says we're going elect hillary clinton and her values unless we wake up and yes vote the message no don't vote that messenger. there's been a lot of people making arguments against trump right for months and none of them have worked. i don't know that this will. but i think it's a smart way to go. >> you mentioned chris christie. we have that. take a listen. >> these are among the most dangerous and perilous times in

our country's history. these times and challenges demand a grown-up to be our candidate. they demand someone who has been fighting today's battles in the arena not someone who has been side lined for years, not running away from the battles when they get too hot or when they get too discouraged. showtime is over, everybody. we are not electing an entertainer-in-chief. showmanship is fun but it's not the kind of leadership that will truly change america. if we're going turn our frustration and anger with a d.c. insiders the politicians of yesterday and the carnival barkers of today into something that actually will change american lives for the better, we must elect someone who has been tested. >> okay. and here is -- >> carnival barker is a reference to donald trump. >> yeah. he was asked about that with all due respect yesterday. did you see all due respect.

quite good. chuck, with all due respect, "hardball" was awesome. here's donald trump last night in massachusetts to that huge crowd. >> look at all the cameras here tonight and all live television. you're all on live. wave. hi, folks. and i wish, you know, i always do this. i always do it but i wish they would turn the cameras and show the audience. they tend not to do it. they tend not to do it. they don't like to do that. we won't do it too much. but i said -- oh, wow. they are doing it. wow! they are doing it! folks, we have at that revolution going on. people are tired and they are sick of the stupidity we're seeing coming out of washington. they are sick and tired of it. look at last week. you saw what they passed, the budget. i didn't even know it went so fast, it went so quickly and you

look at it. they want to fund obamacare. fund planned parenthood. fund global warming. fund the syrian refugee program where they are going to pour into the country. they got everything. i'm saying where are the republican, the leadership? there's no leadership. everything that you don't want is in that budget. and i say where was paul ryan? where are all these people that are supposed to be representing our interest? where were they? where are they? where are they? nobody is representing our interest. we had a case where we had 4500 people in new hampshire and fairly close down the way was jeb bush where he had 104. that's true. but they the advantage because they all fell asleep they got a good night's sleep. we don't need four more years of obama and that's what you're

getting with hillary. that's what you're getting. no that's what you're getting. and i believe it might be even worse if you want to know the truth. it might be worse. >> so, mike, very interesting lowell, massachusetts. we saw trump up by 20, 30 points in a mass poll several months ago. new york state some of his strongest support are in upstate new york counties. you're from massachusetts. who are the people that were in that audience. >> the people in that audience were no different than the people who go see i'm in iowa or south carolina. chris christie actually alluded to it in his speech it's people who fear for their future. we have not as a collective entity in politics, politician, people running for office have never really addressed the fear that was instilled in the american public due to the economic collapse in 2008. people lost homes. they lost a sense of their future. they lost a sense of their

401(k)s. >> they don't feel they got it back. >> at that lot have not gotten it back. >> the question, if trump wins historians will ask 30 years now why in this time of economic uncertainty you go to a guy with billions of dollars bragging flying in on his 757. >> because they believe he has the confidence and strength and certainty he can do something about something that they've seen no other politicians do something about in terms of their own selfish parochial financial interest. those are good things. i don't mean selfish, parochial sense in a perjorative sense. what about me, my kids' tuition. >> i wonder if it means he can't be bought and sold. >> that's a theme he hammered since he got in the race.

i'm paying this for myself. i have no obligation to people. what's interesting when you talk to people at those rallies, there's an aspirational element to it. they like he's a big rich famous guy. they look up to him. they think if he can do it for himself and key do it for his companies maybe he can help us along too. i don't know if there's logic to that but it's an emotional connection. >> why attack paul ryan. what's the advantage there? >> he's a republican establishment. it's the republican establishment. these people feel let done. not paul ryan but feel let down by the republican establishment. >> he specifically said -- >> paul ryan is the guy in charge right now. for 30 years republicans have been promising less wars. 30 years they promised balanced budgets. for 30 years they have been promising to pay down the debt. the debt only goes higher. >> does this mean more if he does not get it he'll run

third-party if he's attacking the establishment. >> he's not going run as a third-party. i don't think he'll run as a third-party. he's so far ahead in everything, even talk of him running as a third-party candidate right now doesn't make any sense. >> we played an extended clip from donald trump. prior to that we played a clip from marco rubio. if you're out there as a voter, who understands your anger, marco rubio or donald trump? >> it's not just that. donald trump, again, people have known him for 30, 35 years. that's thing that everybody has under estimated. my brother has read "the art of the deal" 30 years. he's loved donald trump ever since. people know him. i'll say what i've said all along. in these days marco looks young compared to donald trump. politics is a story of contrasts and in these days --

>> it's a big contrast. >> ted cruz is out with a new ad entitled invasion. it will begin running statewide in new hampshire tomorrow. here's an exclusive first look at the ad. >> i understand that when mainstream media covers immigration it doesn't often see it as an economic issue. but i can tell you it is a very personal economic issue. and i will say the politics of it would be very, very different if a bunch of lawyers or bankers were crossing the rio grande or if a bunch of people with journalism degrees were coming over and driving down the wages in the press then we would see stories about the economic calamity that's befalling our nation. if i'm elected president, we will trip tell border patrol, we will build a wall that works, we will secure the border.

>> that's just a weird ad. that's not going to connect with anybody. >> i'm so glad you said that. >> it's a weird ad. it won't connect. whoever did that ad for you ted thank them and have them do another one. get your money back. show that picture of marco sweating like he did and how marco was the gang of eight. >> joining us now from des moines -- >> i put that one up with jon huntsman first ad the dude riding a motorcycle across america. >> i remember it. >> what was it about >> peter fonda. >> joining us now from des moines, iowa, nbc news correspondent hallie jackson. you spent time with ted cruz yesterday as he kicked off his iowa bus tour. polls show he's leading in the state. what is he doing solidify his front-runner status there? >> reporter: he's barn storming the state. look what happened 6 1/2 hours ago here in iowa he was at a diner at about 11:30 at night

with 125 people that showed up to see him in the middle of the state. he's trying to rally these folks. trying prove he's not taking their support for granted and doing sign a way that's big, visible, getting a lot of media attention and coming out and saying i might be leading in the polls, i want to you come out. i got the money and organization. he ran that ad and there's a line in there from ted cruz where he talks about wanting to build a border wall. this is something even though we've seen ted cruz and donald trump in this detant in the last six months, you haven't seen ted cruz go after trump. he did on that wall issue he also raised some eyebrows when he talked about evangelicals coming out of cuba. ted cruz father is cuban. i asked him about this in our interview on his bus yesterday. listen. at what point do you start to draw those distinctions with

donald trump. >> i like donald trump, like ben carson. i like all the candidates running. they are good people. >> even when they question why haven't gale cals don't come from cuba. >> politicians behave a certain way when they panic. they engaging personal attacks. that's human nature. i won't get drawn into that. i'm going to keep the focus on the issues that matter. >> reporter: you don't get the sense trump is panicking at least right now here in iowa but do you get the sense how different their campaigns are. trump is running a nontraditional campaign in iowa, doing it from 30,000 feet. holding these huge rallies drawing in thousands of people. cruz is doing at any time old-fashioned way, boots on the ground, getting out six stops today, small places, crowds less than 200, shaking hands with everybody. >> nbc's hallie jackson. thank you very much. see him pouring the coffee

there? >> ted cruz -- >> smooth. >> it's going to be a fascinating race to tend in iowa. >> i thought that an was pretty effective. >> it was? >> the ad of not. >> we have a very tight race in iowa. >> okay. >> if you turn the sound down on an ad you can't understand it -- that ad i would have no clue what that ad before. >> stay with us. tomorrow "morning joe" the two surprises that define the political season. >> donald trump and bernie sanders join the show. the outsiders join us. up next, one year ago mitt romney told jeb bush it would be quote very difficult for him to post up against hillary clinton. now the former governor from florida joins us to explain why he's the only candidate who really can. jeb bush, live on morning"morni next. your path to retirement...

may not always be clear. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. for over 75 years, investors have relied on our disciplined approach to find long term value. so wherever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call a t. rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor ...to see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. my siand mouthwash all the toothtime. i'm like, huh? aren't they all the same? you know, i had to see for myself. so i went pro. with crest pro-health advanced. advance to a healthier, stronger, cleaner mouth from day 1. this toothpaste... ...and mouthwash make my whole mouth feel amazing. and my teeth stronger.

crest pro-health advanced is superior in these 5 areas dentists check. this is gonna go well, for sure. advance to a healthier stronger, cleaner mouth from day 1. great check up. my sister was right. (vo) what'scorn? dog food's first ingredient? wheat? in purina one true instinct grain free, real chicken is always #1. no corn, wheat or soy. support your active dog's whole body health with purina one.

chester, new hampshire, republican presidential candidate and former florida

governor, a great governor of florida, jeb bush. also at the table managing editor of bloomberg politics mark halperin who is, of course, his show, what about don rickles what is also known as "with all due respect." >> you guys were great. >> i was going through history and i remember your brother back 7000 he was supposed to win new hampshire and i remember being on the house floor that day. do we think george will win by five or ten points. mccain won by 18. the next day, of course, the campaign was over and he was going to lose everything. you think every four years, howard dean in 2004, 20008 hillary would lose new hampshire, 02012 where did rick santorum come from. we have a long way to go. my question is how do you break out in new hampshire and what's the defining issue? what's the closing argument that

gives you that push that we see. somebody will get it. how do you get it? >> well, first of all, happy new year. no disrespect to the punditry class because you are very good pundits but pun departments get it wrong all the time. at the end of the day people in new hampshire, iowa, south carolina, nevada will have a disproportionate say. you make a total commitment to these states. voter contact matters in these smaller states where they are expecting it. secondly you need to make the case that i can beat hillary clinton. the conversation with mitt romney brought back, you know, private conversation, brought back how i answered that which is i have a proven record. you can't beat hillary clinton who has no record, or a record of failure with someone who doesn't have a record at all and that was the case i made to mitt and you and people here in new hampshire. i have a conservative record that brought people toward our cause rather than push them away

and hillary clinton needs to be taken on because of her failed record. you can only do that if you have a good one. >> governor, obviously a lot of political campaigns, take a lot of polls to figure out where the american people are. you never know where the american people are until you do what you're doing. which is you go to one town hall meeting after another and hear people say the same thing over and over again and you start to figure out what they are worried about at this moment in time, the most. tell me right now what's the number one thing you're hearing from people and then what your hearing that might surprise you a little bit, that might not show up on national news shows? >> well, obviously, national and economic security, the combination of that is why people are so full of angst and why they are angry at washington because the government is not working for people any more. so it's the question of how can we make sure my kid can go to college without being indebted. how can we have rising income

for my family and how does this country be kept safe and secure. those are issues that come up over and over again. the one that surprised me at the early part of my journey was the epidemic of heroin in new england now it's all over the country. today i'm at a summit to deal with this and i'll lay out a detailed plan on how to fix this and what the role of the president is. i got to do this as governor, you know, joe, we reduced drug abuse in our state. i have a personal experience with this and i know how tragic it is for families to have a loved one that goes through this. and telling that story for people that are truly suffering right now here in new england is part of the journey as well. >> so, i'm wondering, though, about being able to beat hillary clinton. you say that trump would get crushed by hillary clinton. why do you say that? so far he's crushed everybody.

>> well that's different. he's captured people's angst and anger for sure. he's a great politician in that regard. but look he's a buddy of the clintons. he's the only person on the stage that's given money to bill clinton and hillary clinton's campaign, yeah and their foundation. i think he's probably the only guy that invited hillary clinton to one of his weddings. his views are closer aligned to hillary clinton's than that of a conservative. how can he beat hillary clinton when we get into the general election he'll get crushed. you can't insult your way to the presidency. i find it remarkable no other candidate is taking him on. he's a bully. and his views, while it's very fun to talk about all the great th theatrics his views are not the vufs conservative and the conservative will win the conservative nomination for the conservative party. >> so the only problem with that is the numbers are showing that it is working and whatever --

however you describe the strategy, bullying, insulting -- >> i guess the question is what's working right now for him at this point in time and as we've said this could change dramatically. >> how does it get countered by hillary clinton. >> what's working? >> it can change. it's working, whatever donald trump is doing is working clearly. but there's a deal. he's not going to win iowa and if he done win iowa then he'll have a hard time here and if he done win here then the whole thing collapses. where does he stand on national security? what does he think about the nuclear triad. how will he keep us safe? how will he create an environment where people's income rise again. there's no specifics there. there's no there there. once the bubble is burst then i think you'll see dramatic changes. that's my view. that's why i work each day really hard to make sure people know that i have the detailed plans to fix these big complex things and i have the proven

leadership skills to do it. >> governor bush, it's willie geist. good to see you. there was an interesting account of the last six or seven months of the campaign in the "the washington post." one of the news worthy parts is mitt romney visited you and talked about the prospect of you becoming nominee and perhaps president of the united states pep said he liked you a lot, thinks you'll be a great president but thought you were severely burdened by the george w. bush presidency particularly the legacy of iraq. as you look at your poll standing do you feel your brother has weighed on you in the last seven months as you run? >> absolutely not. smirm a great guy and i do consider him a friend. in that private conversation we talked about the campaign because he was thinking about running. i went out the see him. i wanted him to know i was all in and i had a plan to win this. i still do. my brother if you did the polling and looked at it he's the most popular president amongst republicans in this

country. >> yeah. >> so the whole idea that somehow he's a burden -- any mistakes i make is my own. my brother and family i'm honored to be part of that family. i love them dearly. all the psychobabble that goes along with it, i ignore that. meditate on that. >> we're severely burdened by mike kbarnl. he has the next question four. >> governor, you're sitting in an area of the country where jobs have been disappearing for a decade. you're sitting in an area where people have been crushed by the 2008 economic collapse. what makes you more capable of helping those people's immediate economic future than any of the other candidates? >> well, if you look at what i've laid out in terms of economic security and economic growth i think you could see the only way people's income will

rise is by growing the economy at a faster rate. embracing the energy revolution. new hampshire has some of the highest utility costs in the country. they should be embracing the energy revolution and making sure the federal government makes it easier for states to decide what their power generation looks like. lower energy costs allows for us to reindustrialize the country. this administration has done the exact opposite. i want imposed higher costs to advance an environmental agenda that's hurting the middle class. making sure job training is no longer obsolete. we have 50 different job trains program all designed most of them in the 1970s. much better to redesign them for jobs that exist today. i go businesses all the time up here and they are looking for people that are qualified to fill vacancies. making sure our regulatory system isn't as burdensome and

simp making the tax code simple. fix these complex things. >> in closing three things you said, you said -- >> this sounds like a very long question. >> i'm bored. >> one question. >> you said it's important to stop donald trump, you said you're a lone voice in speaking against him and you said your brother is popular. would you like the 34th president of the united states to speak out against donald trump as loudly as you are. >> that's my job. that's my job. you got take on the bully head on. that's what i'm doing. everybody else is in the witness protection program in noticed. you got to stand up for a guy that says the things that he says and guarantees a conservative won't be elected president that's wrong. i've been a conservative all my abuilt life. that's what i'm fighting for. make sure the conservative cause is allowed to govern. >> by the way, that's a jeb i've

known 30 years. everybody is in the witness protection program. jeb, thank you for being with us. how is your mom and dad doing? >> they are doing great. i talked to them yesterday. they are in great spirits down in houston. >> good. send them our best and good luck out there. >> governor jeb bush thank you very much. thanks for coming on. >> still to come this morning we'll speak with presidential candidate database >> witness protection program. rick santorum we'll make him step out now of the witness protection program. staying in rhythm...

it's how i try to live... how i stay active. so i need nutrition... that won't weigh me down. for the nutrition you want without the calories you don't... try boost® 100 calories. each delicious snack size drink gives you... 25 vitamins and minerals and 10 grams of protein. so it's big in nutrition and small in calories. i'm not about to swim in the slow lane. stay strong. stay active with boost®. where our next arrival is... red carpet whoa! toenail fungus!? fight it! with jublia. jublia is a prescription medicine used to treat toenail fungus. use jublia as instructed by your doctor. are you getting this?! most common side effects include

ingrown toenail, application site redness, itching, swelling, burning or stinging, blisters, and pain. oh, epic moves, big j! fight it! getting ready for your close-up? ask your doctor if jublia is right for you. visit our website for savings on larger size. watching tvs get sharper, you've had it tough. bigger, smugger. and you? rubbery buttons.

enter the x1 voice remote. now when someone says... show me funny movies. watch discovery. record this. voila. remotes, come out from the cushions, you are back. the x1 voice remote is here. . 42 past the hour. the north charleston police officer who fatally shot an unarmed man in the back last april has been released from jail. michael slager is charged with murder after shooting 50-year-old walter scott as he ran way from at that traffic stop. thinks trial isn't scheduled until october 31st. prosecutors have given precedence to the july trial of the suspect in the mass shooting at mother emmanuel church. the judge said it's unnecessary to keep former office in jail that long before trial and then released him on $500,000 bond. slager has been placed on house

arrest. >> is this the guy that shot walter scott in the back like several times. >> yeah. >> why should he not be in jail awaiting trial? >> because they have given precedence to this trial -- >> they got a jail cell that he can stay in. >> he posted $500,000 bail. >> all right. federal authorities launched the first in a series of raids across the country this weekend tar gift certificating undocumented immigrants including children who recently arrived to the u.s. from central america. its the first large scale effort to deport families order to be removed by federal judges. the 121 adults and children apprehended are being held temporarily in federal detention centers until they can be deported. >> just for the record, i am

making no political statement here, i am, you know, tough on build the wall 8 million feet high and whatever, but "star wars" storm troopers on the top, i'm just wondering here, do americans understand -- again i'm making no political statement. i want to be tough on illegal immigration. we talk about illegal immigration do people understand that actually there has been a net decline on people coming to the united states of america from mexico. do people at home understand that this isn't like it was in 2005 and '06 and '07 and '08 and more people are going back to mexico -- >> yes thank you for saying that. >> than coming to the united states. again, i'm all tough on border so you can't say amnesty joe screw you. i'm trying to educate the people because you know that's my job. i'm a bit of a professor of

sort. >> but your point it's not a growing problem. >> but like nine out of ten ads have people storming across the border, oh, my god the mexicans are coming. no actually the mexicans are kind of going home. we have a lot of illegal immigrants here. i don't want them to be citizens. i don't want amnesty. i'm just saying if you're listing problems that we're having today as far as people coming over the border this is like 8432 because more are going home than are coming here. >> how would anyone in this country understand what you just correctly outlined when they are confronted on their tv sets with people running for president who show ads aimed at convincing you that someone from guadalajara by the end of this week will take over your local high school and hospital. >> i'm saying i want tough border, i don't want anybody in here illegally, i'm worried

about a terror threat, i'm worried about people slipping -- i worry about what all americans worry about. but all these ads showing people stream ago cross the border, i got to say, they are streaming across the borders. they are going back to mexico. if you look at the raw net numbers over the past several years mark halperin am i right or wrong. >> i got to get to the break. still ahead middle eastern countries rush to pick sides between saudi arabia and iran. it could have major implications in the fight against isis. ed royce joins us next. >> we love ed. appear to fade one month, deep wrinkles look smoother... and after one year, skin looks ageless. only from roc®. and i'm jerry bell the third. i'm like a big bear and he's my little cub. this little guy is non-stop. he's always hanging out with his friends.

you've got to be prepared to sit at the edge of your seat and be ready to get up. there's no "deep couch sitting." it's definitely not good for my back. this is the part i really don't like right here. (doorbell) what's that? a package! it's a swiffer wetjet. it almost feels like it's moving itself. this is kind of fun. that comes from my floor? eww! this is deep couch sitting. deep couch sitting!

in my business i cbailing me out my i.all the time... i'm not the i.t. guy. i'm the desktop support tech supervisor. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive. introducing real-time delivery notifications. learn more at myusps.com as middle eastern nations take sides between saudi arabia and iran they are concerned the fallout will hinder peace efforts. >> foreign policy experts warn it only helps isis.

joining us now is congressman ed royce. >> chairman good to see you. let's talk about iran and saudi arabia as they relate to one another. do you have concerns about the execution just a couple of days ago, 47 people in saudi arabia? >> we do have concerns, of course, about the way this was carried out. frankly the effective overthrow of the government in yemen in terms of the forces in yemen. the entire instability there i think is a problem as sunni and shia begin to separate into separate blocks and it makes it much more difficult and this is part of the fallacy in leading from behind. we see a lack of leadership. as a consequence people don't list zwroins. they perceive we tilted towards

iran and this created problems in terms of our credibility. >> what could this thread. this conflict between iran and saudi arabia what happens next? >> my concern, first of all syria. the consequences there in terms of trying to broker any kind of agreement at a time when iran feels that they have been empowered. if you see the actions of iran recently, whether it's taking additional u.s. hostage or whether it's, you know, violating the u.n. sanctions, shooting off these ballistic missiles and remember jordan and other u.s. allies of the region don't see a reaction from this administration. as a matter of fact the administration was about to take action and as soon as iran pushed back in terms of enforcement on the sanctions the u.n. sanctions, all of that evaporated. and so we need a policy of back bone not backing done. as a consequence of that

constantly backing down in the face of iran i think there's this perception now that it will make it much harder to get people to the table because instead what you see is a reaction to them lashing out against iran's growing power in the region. >> the american administration, what aspects of saudi behavior do you think have contributed to deterioration in the relationship? >> in terms of saudi behavior i think the long term problem has been the support of >> the government turned a blind

eye to that? >> that's our problem. we believe problem. we believe the government hasn't done enough. >> but the government has made progress, though, right? the saudi government has made progress in syria over the past several years. >> this is true but the 600 schools in pakistan still get the funding somehow from individuals in the gulf states and in saudi arabia, in that region of the world, we still have a problem of money funding coming to nigeria, north africa. >> at the same time, though, we had this discussion a couple of hours ago on this show. the show, by the way, goes for like 18 hours. i think mike barnicle says doesn't it make sense for the long-term bet to be on iran instead of saudi arabia. >> that's the administration's bet. >> it is but you see saudis, like me, as our allies. trouble at times but compared to

iran, it's a close call, isn't it? >> the chance to change the middle east was in 2009 when the people in iran went to the streets. and the administration made the decision at that point not to support the people in the streets in iran. instead they've gone forward to engage the ayatollah. that was a blunder. >> at the same time you were saying bore -- our ally must go. >> at the same time we're tilting towards iran, this is what has destabilized, along with our failure to push iraq, and they've launched these ballistic missile, which are obviously a threat to the other countries in the region beside ultimately to us and our failure to push back on that has been duly noted. so the main problem in the

region is iranian power and growing influence and their chance of death to america, death to israel. >> chairman of the house foreign affairs committee ed royce, thanks for being on the show this morning. >> mr. chairman come back. boring times for you, i know. >> we'll be right back with much more "morning joe." the way. people who gave me options. kept me on track. and through it all, my retirement never got left behind. so today, i'm prepared for anything we may want tomorrow to be. every someday needs a plan. let's talk about your old 401(k) today. when a moment turns romantic why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all

your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis and a $200 savings card at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like reunions equal blatant lying. the company is actually doing really well on, on social media. oh that's interesting. i - i started social media. oh! it was my...baby.

oh no... (under his breath) hey man! hey peter. (unenthusiastic) oh... ha ha ha! joanne? is that you? it's me... you don't look a day over 70. am i right? jingle jingle. if you're peter pan, you stay young forever. it's what you do. if you want to save fifteen percent or more on car insurance, you switch to geico. ♪ you make me feel so young... it's what you do. ♪ you make me feel ♪ so spring has sprung.

a nice house that lived with a family. one day, it started to rain and rain. water got inside and ruined everybody's everythings. the house thought she let the family down. but the family just didn't think a flood could ever happen. the reality is, floods do happen. protect what matters. get flood insurance. call the number on your screen to learn more. up next, a major question of the trump campaign, as to

whether he can turn himself crowds into voters. just how solid the front-runner's support appears to be. plus some of trump's rivals have been reluctant to attack him. now it appears the clintons are playing it safe. are they running scared or playing the long game?

♪ every auto insurance policy has a number. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. ♪ those who have served our nation have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life.

all right, good morning. >> how are you? >> it's tuesday, january 5th. welcome to "morning joe." hi, mike. >> hi. >> yeah, you better save money. >> you're in trouble. >> you were so sure of yourself. >> i'm saving 25 cents a day

aside. >> here's the deal. >> save your freakin' money! >> six months ago mika said trump is going to win the nomination. and they bet a pickup truck. >> so when does this happen? when is the -- >> have to do it after the convention. because that's going to be a crazy convention, harold, isn't it? >> it's going to be interesting. >> i was watching you last night. everybody's still trying to figure out how is trump going to lose. chances are good a meteor could hit at the top of his end. you're like at the very end, "i still think trump has a chance." you look at the new polls out today, mika. >> they're going to give you a

sense of exactly how deeply people feel about this candidate, those who support him. president of the university of michigan skill of public policy. and kristen saltis anderson. you want to get to those polls? >> i think we really should. let's put more data into machine. >> we wouldn't want to listen to that. >> we wouldn't want to look at actual numbers. >> new national polling this morning on the state of the republican race, the nbc news survey monkey weekly tracking poll shows donald trump with a 17-point lead over his nearest rival, 35% to senator ted cruz's 18% money marco rubio is third with 13%, ben carson at 9% and jeb bush at 6%. nearly 80% of republicans who have decided say they are

absolutely certain or likely to stay with their current choice of candidate. the poll finds that trump supporters are more set in their choice than the average republican voter. >> look at that. >> that's 84% are saying they're absolutely certain or there's a large chance they're going to stick with donald trump. that's four out of five, extraordinary a month out of the first primaries. remember when ben carson's -- mika said ben carson's supporters looked like they were on a bus stop. >> as we talked about yesterday, maybe some of the trump supporters save they want to vote for trump but won't show up. these numbers tell the story of pretty solid support, people who

are going to show up for him. >> and this is a story right now as we get a month away from these elections. this becomes a story of the mainstream media and the republican establishment in washington, d.c. with their heads in the sand and actively, actively denying the reality of millions of americans across the country that want to support a guy that they find abhorrent. james carville, mary madeleine on the debut of what about don rickles. they were asking him about trump. i don't know what is this, we driving past mississippi, biloxi, and there were thousands and thousands and thousands of people lining up on the 2nd of january to go inside and 15,000

at least see donald trump speak that day. and as carville said, if they're doing that on the 2nd of january, who in their right mind doesn't think that on their way to work they're going to drive by their post office or they're going to drive by their local school and spend three minutes when spent three hours, yeah, i'll vote for trump. who are they kidding? >> bill goldman, we should talk about his great book about hollywood "nobody knows nothing." we don't know anything about what's going on here. but the phenomenon began with the curious, people going out to seep donald trump curious about him. and now last night in lowell, massachusetts, 7,000 people at tsongas arena, you're looking at it right there, it ends up with the committed and they are fiercely committed. if he gets half the number of people who go to see him in

these rallies, he'll run away with it. >> so for critics who say why are you showing the trump crowds again? because we're going to keep doing it until the mainstream media -- and the washington, d.c. republican establishment get it that people that are going to show up on these rallies most likely are going to spend ten minutes on the way to work or on the way home or since a lot of them are older retirees are going to get g o at 10, 11,. if they're going to spend five hours doing that, they're going to vote. i'm so tired of people pretending donald trump is going to disappear. the republican establishment in washington, d.c. are the worst offenders. it was the mainstream media. now it the republican establishment in washington, d.c. who are the biggest offenders of this fantasy of thinking. >> sarah palin somehow plays a

role in this misunderstanding of trump's ability to connect with serious people. and i think people were, you know, jubilant, especially in the establishment and the media when she was -- they are credibility was undermined very quickly. his credibility has not been undermined. it's only built and gained steam. >> and errol ford, here's the problem with donald trump, the story that he's going to fade like herman cain faded. what donald trump is doing right now is the same thing donald trump has been doing for are 40 years on a different level. if you're a kid from queens or your dad was a kid from queens, good luck breaking into the manhattan real estate market. you know what he's been doing? he's been sticking it to the manhattan elites for 40 years,

the most powerful people in the world, the richest people in the world. he's always been the outer burr rose guy, all been the tacky guy and his skyscrapers have flown up and put shadows on their little buildings. and he's fixed their skating rink, he's done all of these things. i'll tell the story now i haven't told yet. my first agent was donald trump's agent when i came to town. my first agent told donald trump do not do "the apprentice," it will destroy your reputation, it will destroy your career. i was there in realtime when this was happening. it will destroy your reputation, it will destroy your career, you'll make a fool of yourself, you're not a tv guy. you know what donald trump did? and he was one of the most powerful agents around. he fired him. and he did the tv show. donald trump has done this his entire life and every time he's mocked, he's ridiculed and he's

undermined and hee exceeds expectations. this should not be a shock to anybody in the republican party. >> we talked about this show a lot, if he becomes the nominee, can he reach outside of the pool of supporters that he has now and draw from independents and moderates enough to win? karl rove and others have said they don't believe there's a group of voters out there that have not been tapped by republicans in the past. i don't doubt it. i was a nay sayer earlier, didn't think he could do this. he's now 25, 27 days away from winning the caucus. if he wins the primary, can he pull enough votes from hillary clinton -- >> do you think he's smart enough to do this -- >> he's clearly smart or he would not have achieved the kind

of business success. . question becomes can his persona survive the kind of broadening you're suggesting and hold on to the kind of support he's beenabbeen ab able to sustain -- >> i think if you look at the way the clintons have -- yesterday they laid down like lambs. you know why? because -- and i know i'm going to catch grief, willie confirm, mike, somebody, they're scared to death. donald trump does not fight traditionally. he comes in swinging. and did you see bill -- oh -- and hillary clinton said i made a new year's resolution, right after he started talking about my husband's abhorrent past and treatment of women, i'm not going to talk about donald trump. i'm not going to say he's going to win but if he gets there,

he's a southpaw. is he using the whole apollo creed thing? they're not going to know how to fight him. >> it's clearly a strategy the clintons came up with over the holidays. you quoted hillary clinton. bill clinton talking to andrea mitchell yesterday in new hampshire, could you see him bite his tongue when he was asked about donald trump. he said felt like he wanted to say something and he said i'm not going to go there. how long can you ignore donald trump? it's fascinating. >> nobody is smarter politically than bill clinton. nobody is better than azim -- azim et mat call political warfare than donald trump. >> my grandmother used to say never get in a fight with a pig, you'll boat get dirty and the

pig will like it. the fact of the matter is donald trump is he doesn't care -- he doesn't have foundations where people pat him on the head and tell him he's the best around. >> he has himself to do that. >> bill clinton has a reputation to maintain. it does him no good to get in the mud with trump, he'll lose that fight. >> look at some of these specific demographics. donald trump is leading among white evangelical raspberry by 10 poin -- republicans by 10 points. donald trump leads 35-30. only marco rubio does better with republican women than he does with republican men. kristen, as you look at those numbers, donald trump has been

criticized by some for not being a true conservative but there you have it in that nbc poll. he's leading among very conservative republican voters. >> ted cruz has very conspicuously chosen not to take on donald trump. it's not just the clintons, it also most of the folks on the republican side who have been afraid to take him on. they don't know what to make of him and they've sort of run out of time at this point. the cruz strategy was just wait, let trump fade and absorb his supporters. if ted cruz doesn't win iowa, what does he do next? to joe's point for the last 40 years this being trump's m.o. i read "art of the deal" over the holidays. if you are a card carrying member of the republican establishment and you have not read it yet, you need to pick up a copy today. trump for the last few decades have been laying out this strategy, you create conflict, you draw in press attention, you are dream big, you are exaggerate, you entertain and

the populism is just woven throughout this. this is not a new act for donald trump. the political angle and the way it expressing itself now may be a little bit different butch he lays out this whole play book in "art of the deal" 30 years ago. >> sounds like the essence of a man or the art of a deal. just saying. still ahead, bill clinton doing what bill clinton does best, retail politics. plus white house senior adviser valerie jarrett joins us. and academy award winning director john ridley is here. >> oh, he's back. founding father of morning joe. >> yes, among other things. >> you put it on mt. rushmore. he's right up there. he's there day one. >> then he left. he got bored. >> he said i want to win an academy award. i want to get really even more rich. >> so we'll have ridley with us, if he decide to show up.

we'll be right back. >> maybe he can pass out some money. ♪ let's make some romance, you know the music's calling ♪ erks." [turkey] gobble. [butcher] i'm sorry! (burke) covered march fourth,2014. talk to farmers. we've seen almost everything, so we know how to cover almost anything. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪ in my business i cbailing me out my i.all the time... i'm not the i.t. guy. i'm the desktop support tech supervisor. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive. introducing real-time delivery notifications. learn more at myusps.com thi work for the dogs twenty-four seven. i am the butler. these dogs shed like crazy. it's like being inside of a snow globe.

it takes an awful lot of time to keep the house clean. i don't know what to do. sfx: (doorbell) what's this? swiffer sweeper and dusters? this is nice and easy boys. it really sticks to it. it fits in all of the tight spaces this is really great does that look familiar to you? i'm no longer the butler, i am just one of the guys. trust number one doctor recommended dulcolax constipated? use dulcolax tablets for gentle overnight relief suppositories for relief in minutes and stool softeners for comfortable relief of hard stools. dulcolax, designed for dependable relief here at the td ameritrade they work all the time. sup jj, working hard? working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app on the app store. it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of other competitors do on desktop. you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey?

td ameritrade.

former president bill clinton made his solo debut on the campaign trail yesterday in support of his wife as he enters the final sprint of the first two nominating contests of 2016. >> i don't fit anymore. first of all, i'm a happy grandfather. i'm not mad at anybody. [ applause ] and, secondly, i thought our election was supposed to be a job interview. and believe me, it's important.

a lot of elections are determined by just what they're about. every presidential election people run and, believe it or not, it's kind of scary this year but believe it or not, most everybody actually tries to do what they say they're going to do when they're running. they're telling you what they believe. and so you got to take them seriously. >> looming offer tver the presi first campaign stops were donald trump's attacks on his character. here is what he and candidate clinton had to say about the front-runner yesterday. >> how do you feel about the kind of campaign donald trump is running, sir? >> the republicans will have to decide who they're going to nominate. we're trying to win a primary. we got to do that first. >> i'm interested in your

response to the donald's comment that you and president obama created isis. >> i've adopted a new year's resolution. i'm going to let him live in his alternative reality and i'm not going to respond. >> so, by the way, mike barnicle, we talked about the clintons backing away from the fight. let's just forget that ankle of it. just pure politics, it's a pretty smart move on both of their parts, right? i love what bill clinton said. they're ahead in the polls but they still have a primary to win. that's a brilliant thing to say. we're focusing on what's in front of us. hillary clinton the same thing there, i'm not going to take your bait, let's keep talking about the issue and let the

republicans worry about the republicans. >> she is operating on what is her best bet. her best bet is not to respond to donald trump but to be talking about iran, saudi arabia, isis, her strength. play her strong card. >> she is right now -- i mean, you look at all the markets, willie, she's the predominant favorite. and i've had a lot of republicans say behind closed doors, why are we even doing this? hillary's going to win anyway. like not being happy about it. so as that person, she should never -- it seems to me she's up 53 to 36 to 2 on the democratic side, but she should never take the bait from the republican, should she, until she's running in the general election. >> well, you're probably right except she has taken it for months and months. she's gone after donald trump -- >> prior to her new year's resolution. she's had no problem doing it up until now. >> i just don't know why she didn't see it coming. >> she's got a fight on her

hands in both iowa and new hampshire. whether it's strategy or not, it's st it's true. she's got to earn iowa and new hampshire because bernie sanders is strong there, particularly in new hampshire. >> the president is set to announce new executive action to curb gun violence. but the nra is saying this is it, really? we'll talk to valerie jarrett about whether the plans go far enough. for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. liberty mutual insurance.

boy: once upon a time, there was a nice house that lived with a family. one day, it started to rain and rain. water got inside and ruined everybody's everythings. the house thought she let the family down.

but the family just didn't think a flood could ever happen. the reality is, floods do happen. protect what matters. get flood insurance. visit floodsmart.gov/flood to learn more. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like ordering wine equals pretending to know wine. pinot noir, which means peanut of the night.

you said it's important to stop donald trump, you're a lonely voice in speaking out against him and you said your brother's popular. would you like the 34th pr president of the united states to speak out against him like you are? >> i think that's my job. that's my job. you have to take on the bully head on. everyone else is in the witness protection program. you have to stand up to a guy, who guarantee as conservative is not going to be elected president, it's wrong. >> that was jeb bush the last hour. >> that's exciting. >> and he gets the last word, except on this show, lawrence o'donnell. and academy winning screenwriter john ridley is here. >> we talked about it earlier, our founding father is back!

>> from back in the day. >> it's just wrong. >> day one! >> day one, new jersey, back in the day. >> the very first like -- before it was a show show. >> he said i like waking up at 4 doing this but i think would rather win academy awards. >> no, back in new jersey -- >> see caucus. >> back in the day. >> we took the ride like springsteen, would go through the lincoln tunnel. >> there was one day they didn't nowhere it was going. it was like i don't know where i'm going. it was just some spot out in -- >> that was how your began your oscar campaign. >> it was. it started with a grass roots effort. >> can we talk politics? >> i mean, come on. yeah, let's talk politics. john ridley, they always said that the terrorists would look at like movie scripts of like these huge, huge incidences and

sort of imagine it and then possibly do it. who could ever write a movie script for a presidential campaign like this? seriously. if you tried to sell this script in l.a., they would laugh. >> about a your ago maybe they would. >> a year ago. >> i think the concept if you're talking specifically -- >> trump, the movie. >> the kinds of politicians who are maybe outspoken or a bit dog whistle or just understand something that is bubbling under that a lot of us, whether you're liberal or conservative wouldn't speak to, i don't know that that's unusual. i really don't in terms of scripts, in terms of things like a face in the crowd, going back and films like that where people, they say things, they're outrage out, there are people who go, well, that's never going to fly but there are people out there who they feel like there's something they want to tap into. i don't agree with it.

i don't think it even exists. it's not about existing. it's about vaporware. >> we were talking yesterday what bernie sanders has done with building momentum and a $27 average contribution offer the past three months, breaking barack obama's records, it's find blowing. everybody talks about trump on the republican side because he's ahead but what bernie's doing on the democratic side is extraordinary. >> he has about the same amount of actual voter support. his percentage of the democratic vote versus trump's percentage of the republican vote in raw totals are about the same. a front-runner is prohibitive when they're over 50%. hillary when she was the front-runner against barack obama in 2008 was never really above 50%. and so she was, you know, her high was around 44% against him. and that meant that -- but when you're over 50, it means a

majority of democrats have made their decision about hillary clinton. and so even though bernie's run so strong, once you're as high over 50% as she is, it becomes very difficult to see how you change that. >> does that change if bernie wins iowa and new hampshire? >> it's hard to say what iowa's affect will be on the democrats. hillary had that experience last time when she ran. when she lost iowa, she was able to come back from that. i think if bernie wins iowa, it won't have the same effect as obama winning. >> what's happening out there, on both sides? >> i'm the person who doesn't know. i do not know what the hundreds of millions of voters are think persian gulf. >> let me ask you this way and i've said this a lot before about how the kennedys could never figure out why the same people that supported bobby in '68, lot of them moved over to wallace. why did a lot of people who

voted for reagan twice vote for clinton twice. talk about the nonideological nature of americans who just want somebody outside fighting for them. >> look, i think the most important poll numbers i think in any conversation about trump's support, which is the new phenomenon, is that 66% of them believe that barack obama is muslim. 66%. 27% of them think barack obama is christian. so -- and 60% of them believe barack obama is not a citizen of the united states of america. so if you take them away, if donald trump found away to appeal to people and said himself barack obama is a citizen of the united states, he's not a muslim, he would be running down in the middle of the pack at best. so this phenomenon, what is the trump phenomenon, well, let's begin with two-thirds believe this the president is a muslim. >> with you yhich you might go

what you were saying, john ridley, some of the things -- we were talking about all the mexicans streaming across the border when in reality more have streamed back across the border of memexico, these fears aren't real. >> no. when it gets to demonizing or saying the vast majority of them a rapist or we need to start rounding people up. have i to say i don't know for the average person phrases like "rounding up" really have a concept of what that means. people in my family who were rounded up who were part of the japanese inturnment, people in my family who are a little more distant but slavery. when people start saying these

things, it's not just, hey, your taxes are too high and rich guys are getting hit too hard. okay, there's an argument to be had been taxes and fairness and structure and do we need to rewrite the code. but when you talk about rounding up, there are people around who have been rounded up. >> the president prepares to reveal new gun control measures. the president is expected to announce executive actions in a speech today to restrict gun sales by unlicensed dealers hoping to tighten the so-called gun show loophole. businesses that sell guns would have to obtain a federal leitice and conduct background checks on all customers. the white house will add more fbi agents and staff to carry out the increased background checks. president obama spoke about his plans after meeting with the attorney general at the white house. >> it is my strong belief that for us to get our complete arms

around the problem, congress needs to act. what i asked my team to do is to see what more we can do. the good news is that these are not only recommendations that are well within my legal authority and the executive branch but they're also ones that the overwhelming majority of american people, including gun owners, support and believe in. >> the president also announced two proposals that will need congressional approval, who wants to hire 200 new atf agents and $500 million more for mental health care. >> valerie jarrett, happy new year. >> happy up in year to you. the president's opponents were quick to jump on this with criticism. paul ryan called it a dangerous level of executive overreach. and even the nra was very critical saying it was spin,

telling the "new york times" this is it really? this is what they've been hyping for how long now? this is the proposal they spent seven years putting together? they're really not doing anything. what's your response to that? >> my response is they should all spend time talk to the victims of gun violence. we lose 30,000 people a year to gun violence, two-thirds of those through suicide. the president has said he'll take whatever steps he can within his authorities to keep guns out of the hands of those who shouldn't have them, to make our community safe, make sure we're providing the mental health resources we need to make sure americans are as healthy as they can be and to invest in smart technology to -- >> so, salary, what can the president do? like the gun shell loophole. can the president close the gun show loophole to make sure terrorists can't walk into gun shows, not have a background check and walk out with assault style weapons? >> what the atf is is doing

today is giving guidance that says it doesn't matter where you guy a gun, whether it's in a store or at a gun show or on the internet. if you're in the business of selling gun, you need to get a license and you need to make sure you do background checks on the people to whom you sell them. that's an important step. >> does the president have the legal authority to do that? >> absolutely. absolutely, joe. >> can i ask a question? why didn't the president do that after newtown? obviously we've been debating this for a couple of years now. >> well, our first priority was to get congress to pass an act that would have been more comprehensive. that's the best solution, joe, of course is to get congress to act. in their failure to act, the president passed 23 different executive orders that have made great improvements in terms of how we share data from the state and local level, improving our own technology. after oregon he said i want my team to go back and take another

look and see what more we can do. that's when the team came up with this package that the president will present today. >> mark halperin. >> valerie, happy up in year. nice to speak with you. >> happy up in year. >> what is the current source or sources of the nra's power? >> the sources of the nra's power is they've had a well-oiled machine where they've generated a lot of revenue that they use to influence members of congress. what the president has said is that the american people have a lot of of power, too and and when their voices are heard, they'll be more powerful than the nra. 90% of the american people supported the legislation that the president was supporting back then. 90%. i met with gun owners around the country who share the president's priority. they say, look, we went through a background check. why shouldn't everybody who has a gun go through a background check. that is not an unreasonable burden to put on people. >> by the way, lawrence

o'donnell, 80% of republicans that vote in early primary states support increased background checks. 80%. this is not about gun owners across america, this is about three or four people nm washington, d.c. this isn't about the nra. this is about three or four people running the washington branch of the nra. valerie? >> well, whatever it is, it kept the members in the republican party from supporting legislation when the vast majority of americans supported it. we're saying, look, we still want to put pressure on congress to do the right this evening and we need the american people to help us do that but in the meantime, he's going to help to keep guns out of the wrong hand, improve technical jirk make background checking more efficient, bring in digital services to make it work 24 hours a day, provide mental health resources, a half a billion dollars to help with mental health, make sure the

social security security administration is giving information on people who are at risk. this is an on going process that the president is committed to. nothing has frustrated hem more than congress's unwillingness to act on this issue since he's been in office. >> that is just what i was just about to ask you about, valerie the president had goals coming into office and mass shootings have become like a daily occurrence in this country. we don't even report on them all. and yet would you consider this to be one of his greatest frustrations in terps of what he's been able to accomplish or not in his presidency? >> oh, mika, absolutely. the day that we traveled up to newtown, two days after that massacre, was the worst day of his presidency. just thinking about it makes me tear up. we'll have families who suffered great loss that day who will be here with us here at the white house. we have families from all across

the country who will be with us here. gabby gifford will be with us here. you hear their stories and what the devastation of gun violence has done to communities across our country and to families, it's just the devastation is immeasurable. the pain is immeasurable. the question is what is wrong with law april biding citiz abi subjected to background checks? that should not be anything that even at issue in our country. it's the simplest thing in the world. we're going to do everything we can to make sure we keep guns out of the wrong hands, to work with local and state authorities to get the data as accurate as we can. we're going to call on retailers who have best practice, retailers across the country who stopped selling these large wednesdayons, these magazines

and these bullets that do such damage, that are doing background checks on their employees. we're also going to call on manufacturers, see what they can do to improve the technology. if you can use a thumb print to activate a telephone? why aren't we doing the same thing with our guns? >> by the way, wild left wing liberal bush did it -- >> i rest my case. >> happy new year. >> happy new year and good luck and god bless. we have a potpourri of things to talk about here also. >> yes. up have an exciting -- >> the kind fund. >> the kind fund. my program started raising money for children in needs of desks in africa and provide scholarships for girls. we're over $10 million now since we started, $10.5 million. this is my thank you tour.

joe, mika, the first time i talked about this on this show was -- we got a big surge of contributions from this program, including that year the single biggest contribution we got that year. it was from coming on here. >> let's match it! >> come on, guys. >> you can contribute at any time. not just the christmas season. >> that's so nice. >> and john ridley. >> american crime back on the air this week. >>om just going to warn you right now, mika is going to want to guest star on your show. >> am i going to have a cameo? >> any time someone has a tv show, she always pushes herself on. >> can i be a cameo in. >> in this season it's a creative narrative and we hugh very close to reality and we had some people sharing stories that were a little painful but hearing it from real people, having real folks on the show

talking about experiences is very potent. it's not about the realm of possibility. i know people. >> i feel like that was a no. in hollywood speak, that was a no. you're making the biggest mistake of your life. i'm calling ari. >> it's an awesome object but not awesome in a hipster sort of way. it's a lot. i put it somewhere respectful but a little out of the way. >> low key. >> that is so john ridley. >> thank you. we'll dvr your show and watch yours at the same time, 10 p.m. i'm a diplomat, even though you're wrong, i didn't -- >> watch "the last word" on msnbc and everybody else can watch on abc. >> coming up wreck srick santors

us next. he's out with an ad that goes after ted cruz's bedtime stories. can't wait to talk about that next when we return. your path to retirement may not always be clear. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. so wherever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call us or your advisor t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

where our next arrival is... red carpet whoa! toenail fungus!? fight it! with jublia. jublia is a prescription medicine used to treat toenail fungus. use jublia as instructed by your doctor. are you getting this?! most common side effects include ingrown toenail, application site redness, itching, swelling, burning or stinging, blisters, and pain. oh, epic moves, big j! fight it! getting ready for your close-up? ask your doctor if jublia is right for you. visit our website for savings on larger size. in my business i cbailing me out my i.all the time... i'm not the i.t. guy. i'm the desktop support tech supervisor. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive. introducing real-time delivery notifications. learn more at myusps.com this is a body of proof.

proof of less joint pain. and clearer skin. this is my body of proof that i can fight psoriatic arthritis with humira. humira works by targeting and helping to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to both joint and skin symptoms. it's proven to help relieve pain, stop further joint damage and clear skin in many adults. doctors have been prescribing humira for 10 years. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened, as have blood, liver and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. want more proof? ask your rheumatologist about humira. humira. this is my body of proof! your hair is still thinning. you may have inactive follicles.

reactivate them with women's rogaine® foam. the only once a day treatment proven to regrow new hairs up to 48% thicker. revive your va-va-voom. and save $10. it takes a lot of work... but i really love it.s. i'm on the move all day long... and sometimes, i just don't eat the way i should. so i drink boost® to get the nutrition that i'm missing. boost complete nutritional drink has 26 essential vitamins and minerals, including calcium and vitamin d to support strong bones and 10 grams of protein to help maintain muscle. all with a great taste. i don't plan on slowing down any time soon. stay strong. stay active with boost®.

that was part of rick santorum's 2016 campaign ad, comparing his past senate record to that of ted cruz. >> senator, always great to have you here. i'll ask you what i asked governor huckabee yesterday. a lot of conservatives are now starting to whisper that ted cruz is a phony conservative. is he? >> i would say that what we need is a conservative who has a track record you can count on, not someone who is new on the scene and effectively taking advantage of a very broken political system to elevate himself in the process. he's done a great job with that.

>> that's what ted cruz is doing? >> he's done a great job elevating himself to be sort of the fighter in washington, d.c. but i think what a lot of conservatives would say, at least the ones who are supporting me, is we need someone who has a strong track record and has been effective, someone who fought and fights and wins, who is successful and who can build coalitions and pass welfare reform and got sanctions on iran and put sanctions on syria. >> just being able to fight not enough. you have fight and win. >> all politics is local. to iowans care about ethanol? >> they do and you're starting to see panic among a lot of iowans who care about the importance of agriculture in iowa, that a cruz nomination -- >> a cruz win in iowa, not a nomination, a cruz win in iowa

will california the renewable fuel standard. if iowans do not support in a republican primary, which farmers are primarily republicans in iowa, if they're not going to satand up and say e believe the standard needs to be in place, if they're not going to stand up and say we believe this is essential for us and we want a president who support it is, then why would the rest of the congress or the rest of the country do that? i think the rfs is going to be much more important as we get closer to the election. >> trump's had a devastating impact on the other candidates in the first half. it a two-half process, primaries and general. where does trump go in the second half if he's the nominee of your party. >> it's hard to figure. you're asking me to predict what

donald trump will do and -- >> the fear of trump has forced a lot of your supporters to coalesce around -- >> a lot of leaders don't believe that trump is solid on their issues. they're looking for someone. a lot of people have decided here's the guy that's ahead right now and we're going to coalesce behind him to stop trump. >> fours years ago you were sitting at 1, 2, 3, 4% at this point and you won iowa. it too early to tell! >> i've been making that point to a lot of leaders who actually called me and gave me the courtesy of telling me what they were going to do. i said let the people of iowa decide. let the voters decide. why do you believe it your job to stand in here and weed the field out for the electorate? the people of iowa spend more time analyzing these candidates,

getting to know these candidates than most of the political leaders in washington, d.c. do. >> can you still win? >> absolutely. >> thank you very much for being on the show this morning. that does it for us this morning. "msnbc live" picks up our coverage after a quick break. how much protein does your dog food have? 18%? 20? nutrient-dense purina one true instinct with real salmon and tuna has 30% protein. support your active dog's whole body health with purina one.

i absolutely love my new but the rent is outrageous. good thing geico offers affordable renters insurance. with great coverage it protects my personal belongings should they get damaged, stolen or destroyed. [doorbell] uh, excuse me. delivery. hey. lo mein, szechwan chicken, chopsticks, soy sauce and you got some fortune cookies. have a good one. ah, these small new york apartments... protect your belongings. let geico help you with renters insurance. >> and right now on