it's not for a better reason, but thank you. >> thank you. that's going to do it for this hour of msnbc live. i'm kate snow. "mtp daily" starts right now. if it's monday, there are only 21 days until people actual start to pick a president. and our new numbers show exactly why even the front-runners are turning up the heat. the state of the union may be strong, but the state of the early states is entirely up in the air. this is "mtp daily" and it starts right now. good evening, everyone. i'm steve kornacki in for chuck todd. here is tonight's take. we have three margin of error races with three weeks to go until the voting starts. these fierce fights on both sides in iowa and on the

democratic side in new hampshire, they show both parties are facing big battles over the heart and soul of who they are. in iowa, ted cruz is on top now, but the story was never gonna be simply the texas senator's expected jump in that state. the question was, how high was he going to get. and he may now have an answer in these numbers because trump is still only four points behind cruz. it shows that cruz's surge may have stabilized. his lead now within the margin of error. the key to winning in iowa of course comes down to the evangelical vote. white evangelicals make up more than half of the iowa republican electorate. and cruz leads with those voters, but ben carson, keep an eye on him. he still holds 14% of the support of evangelicals despite dropping off everywhere else. so if carson continues that downward slide, those voters could shift to trump or cruz and potentially be decisive in that state. meanwhile, in new hampshire, trump is running away with a

16-point lead. but a race in the granite state can change entirely if the establishment kinds a consensus candidate. that's a very big if. if you combine rubio, chris christie, jeb bush, and john kasich, those four establishment candidates, if you put their numbers together, that gives you a 44% block. that would be more than enough to give donald trump a run for his money. but today in new hampshire, the prospect of a united establishment fighting him didn't seem to be on trump's mind. he banged the drum louder about questions about ted cruz's citizenship. >> ted cruz is a problem. i mean, he's got a problem. you can't have a nominee who's going to be subject to being thrown out as the nom nee. you just can't do it. so you're going to make that decision, folks. >> now, the race is just as narrow on the other side of the aisle in the granite state. hayling from the neighboring state of vermont, bernie sanders has held on to his lead from the

last nbc/maris poll in that state, but hillary clinton has climb up a bit to make it another margin of error race. she trails sanders by four points, 50-46. back in iowa, clinton leads by three points, that's in the margin of error again. certainly in striking distance for sanders. and get this, our new polls also show that age is the defining factor between hillary clinton and bernie sanders. in iowa, sanders leads clinton by 35 points with voters who are under 45 years old. but clinton is out way ahead of sanders with older voters. it's the same in new hampshire too. sanders leads with younger voters, 66-33. clinton holds a lead with sanders with older voters, it's a little smaller than that. i'm joined by the director of the maris poll. so lee, if the younger voters do come out for sanders, what is that going to mean for clinton in iowa and new hampshire? >> well, it's a big problem for her. that's going to seem like deja vu all over again, remind her of

2008 against barack obama when this avalanche took place. it's not there yet, but sanders does better in both states among first-time voters, people who haven't participated in the iowa caucus or in the new hampshire primary. so it's a factor, critical factor to be watched. and i would say, the other major point in all of our numbers, from the democratic side is the independents. if these were closed primaries, if independents could not vote in either one, hillary clinton would be way ahead of bernie sanders. but he's clobbering her among independents, both in iowa and in new hampshire, who say they're going to participate in the caucus or the new hampshire primary. those are two very, very vital elements to what we're looking at. >> and that's an interesting question too especially when you look at new hampshire. and i guess one of the factors to consider, how many of the independents on primary day decide to vote in that

democratic primary -- how do you handicap that right now? >> we ask them and that's a very volatile figure and we'll be looking very closely at that as we get closer to the actual voting. coming off of iowa, it will be interesting to see, you know, where those independents go, and whether they go into one or the other primary states. we've seen that in past elections with john mccain, and he was getting independents and they went away and came back. it's a very critical thing because especially in new hampshire, they don't have to wait -- they do it at that point, but they can go in either primary, rather easily. the caucus of course is a much more arduous event for people to participate in, particularly on the democrat side. >> correct me if i'm wrong, if i understand this right, talking about the iowa caucuses, looking at the turn-out history, there's one exception in the modern era

in iowa, in 2008 on the democratic side. huge turn-out, that was obama versus hillary clinton. you are seeing right now, if i'm getting this right, indications of that kind of turn-out on both sides this year? >> yeah. you can see in the ratings to the debates. i mean, they're been off the charts. in part, donald trump has been driving that on the republican side, but then again on the democratic side, there's an awful lot of energy out there. and as we look at the intensive support, democratic voters right now are more committed to their candidates. there's less volatility there. the sanders people are in on that. the clinton backers also are fairly well defined. when you get to the republican side, fewer people are intensely committed at this point. there's more volatility. people are telling us they still might vote differently. and in fact, the so-called bromance, when we asked second choice, the trump people, well,

they go to cruz, and the cruz people say their second choice is trump. so that makes both outsiders sort of battling each other for the top and we're seeing that in the campaign rhetoric as that's heating up between them. >> thanks for the time, appreciate it. >> my pleasure. bernie sanders hasn't been shy about pointing out differences between himself and hillary clinton. and today clinton responded forcefully. >> i'm asking you to choose to caucus for me over either of the other two. do we give the gun lobby, the manufacturers and the sellers, absolutely immunity from any liability or accountability? president obama and i were both in the senate and we voted "no." senator sanders voted "yes." that's a big difference between us. >> and joining me now is tadd

devine. the president wrote a couple days ago and said he's not going to be out there supporting any candidate for president who takes the position that hillary clinton just described. and that is the position that senator sanders took as a member of congress. how big of a problem is that for your campaign? >> i don't think it's a problem at all. bernie sanders has said he supports president obama's efforts on gun safety. he's said publicly now for months that he'd be willing to look at that vote again. i think hillary clinton is trying to draw distinctions that don't exist. >> when you say willing to look again, the president needs him to take a firm position. is that something that could be in the offing, a change of position? >> if bernie is ready to support cracking down on gun manufacturers, he's been clear about that for a long time. his message that america has a rigged economy, since most of

the wealth at the top is held in place by a corrupt system of campaign finance is penetrating in iowa, new hampshire and elsewhere. they're trying to stop it any way they can. >> you mentioned iowa, new hampshire. we just put the poll numbers up. you got two dog fights there on the democratic side, basically almost dead even races. the problem for your campaign, when you talk to people who follow this closely, what they say is, say sanders takes iowa. say he rolls into new hampshire and wins there, what comes after that? take a look down in south carolina, a bigger more diverse electorate, hillary clinton leading among african american voters by 50, 60, even 70. you guys have been trying for months now to make a dent in that and you haven't. you've gotten the needle to move in iowa and new hampshire but not in south carolina. why is that? >> well, steve, listen, i worked for walter mondale in 1984, when gary hart won the new hampshire primary, things changed quickly in the states that followed. we've been working hard in south

carolina and nevada. nevada comes first. we went on television in nevada, the clinton campaign joined us last friday. i don't think they were planning broadcast advertising in nevada in january, but that's happening now. we've been on radio in south carolina for a while. and states like colorado and minnesota, massachusetts and vermont are going to vote and many others as well. i think we've got a lot of targets out there, all the way through march and april, all the way to philadelphia and the convention. i think if we get the momentum going, people hear his message, they're going to respond in later states like they are today in iowa and new hampshire. >> fair to say you've got to win iowa to get the first domino to fall? >> i don't think there's any one state you have to win to become the nominee of the democratic party. president obama lost new hampshire last time and we won. we're going to try to win everywhere. i think we have a good plan, we've been executing it for months. it's built around a candidate who has a message which is more powerful than any candidate on either side of the aisle. as long as he can deliver that

message, i think we have a great chance of winning in every state we compete in. >> tad, appreciate that. let's turn now to the clinton campaign and bring in brian fallon, the national press secretary for hillary clinton's campaign. let me ask you this, the scenario that tad pointed to, winning iowa and new hampshire, if we do that, if we put those two wins on the board, who would have believed that a year ago -- the whole world changes. everybody looks at bernie sanders differently. is that a fear for your campaign? >> well, we've actual said since the beginning that we always expected a very competitive primary. i don't know that everybody believed us in april when we said that, but that's indeed what's happening. it's a good thing for the party. there's a lively debate going on between the candidates on our side. the differences pale in comparison to the differences with republicans and democrats. but there are differences for

sure. you mentioned one on the issue of guns. tad just answers two questions by dodging your question. bernie sanders still will not take back the vote he took not once but twice, in 2003 and 2005, to it shield gun manufacturers from lawsuits from plaintiffs impacted by gun violence. he continues to say he'll take a look at it. that's the most he will say. outright repeal of the immunity provision is what is needed. that's what president obama is calling for. the other big difference between the two candidates, hillary clinton today rolled out a surcharge that she wants people making $5 million or more per year to pay, to help us afford all the bold, progressive proposals she's put forward. bernie sanders wants to tax middle class households across the board. his health care plan would attach a 9% increase on middle class households. there are two differences that deserve to be litigated and i

think it's overall good for the party. >> looking at the numbers that might be red flags, the huge gap when you look at the voters under 45 years old, he's cleaning your clock right now. what do you attribute that to? >> well, i think that lee made the comparison to 2008. i think that to some extent, people in the aftermath of the 2008 election, very spirited contest between hillary clinton and barack obama. i think one of the take-aways was that president obama was seen as having out-organized hillary clinton on the ground. i do not think that's what's happening here with bernie sanders and hillary clinton. if you look at our iowa organizing effort. we are so proud of that ever. you have matt paul, michael hally -- >> there's an enthusiasm gap there. 66-33 among people under 45. 66-33 against a remember toer secretary of state, former senator, former first lady and they're siding with a socialist

from vermont. doesn't that say something? >> we're confident at the end of the day that the policies that hillary clinton has put forward, especially with college affordability, debt-free tuition, those are going to resonate and i'm confident we're not going to get out-organized in iowa. and no matter the demographic breakdown, i think bernie sanders would like to compare himself to barack obama, but there are a lot of differences there that are preventing him from catching on among true progressive voters. >> and the other thing in the poll, bernie sanders outperforming hillary clinton fairly significantly against the likely candidate in general election match-ups. what do you say to the sanders campaign that says, you look at the numbers, this is the guy to go with? >> nbt news this morning called those numbers fool's gold and here's why. hillary clinton has been through the gauntlet. she's had 18 republicans running for president and they invoke her, attack her, donald trump is getting in the gutter attacking her every day. he goes after ted cruz because he's losing to cruz in iowa.

when donald trump attacks someone he's worried about them. by comparison with bernie sanders, he said it would be his dream to run against bernie sanders. there's a lot of parts of bernie sanders' record that haven't been litigated. i think at the end of the day that democratic voters know who is the candidate that will take the fight to the republicans, get things done as president. and if we are having the closing argument in iowa and new hampshire on that issue, bernie sanders has a lot to be worried about. >> thanks for the time. coming up, more from chuck's sunday interview with donald trump. we'll also get a response to trump from the cruz campaign. and later, the no-labels campaign co-chairs, john huntsman and joe lieberman, with a new promise they're getting from half a dozen candidates, will it amount to anything? the medical bills - the credit card debt all piled up. i knew i had to get serious my credit.

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at this hour on capitol hill, a classified briefing.

the senate foreign relations committee getting intelligence from senior officials on the response to north korea's claims of testing a hydrogen bomb. on sunday, an american b 52 bomber flew over south korea in a show of force. seoul and washington are in talks about sending more strategic weapons to the korean peninsula. north korea leader kim jong-un called the purported h bomb test quote a self-defensive step. the white house has questioned whether or not the test was in fact a hydrogen bomb. much more "mtp daily" after this. hey start. abdominal pain. urgent diarrhea. now there's prescription xifaxan. xifaxan is a new ibs-d treatment that helps relieve your diarrhea and abdominal pain symptoms. and xifaxan works differently. it's a prescription antibiotic that acts mainly in the digestive tract. do not use xifaxan if you have a history of sensitivity to rifaximin, rifamycin antibiotic agents,

or any components of xifaxan. tell your doctor right away if your diarrhea worsens while taking xifaxan, as this may be a sign of a serious or even fatal condition. tell your doctor if you have liver disease or are taking other medications, because these may increase the amount of xifaxan in your body. tell your doctor if you are pregnant, plan on becoming pregnant, or are nursing. the most common side effects are nausea and an increase in liver enzymes. if you think you have ibs with diarrhea, talk to your doctor about new xifaxan. republican presidential front-runner donald trump sat down with chuck in iowa this weekend for "meet the press." part of that conversation focused on trump's primary battle with senator ted cruz and on cruz's citizenship. here's a brand-new part of that interview not yet seen on television. >> i really feel that if i don't win, i can't make the difference. we're not going to bring back

trade. we're not going to straighten out our military. we're not going to get rid of obamacare and come up with a real health care plan. >> one could argue everybody's changed their messaging to try to copy you, whether it's cruz, rubio, everybody has taken a turn for tougher talk. so you've had an impact already. that's why i'm wondering, do you feel like you've won so far? >> well, i even saw ted cruz just a few days ago, saying, we will build a wall. where did that come from? if you look at what's happened with the muslims, a lot of people are saying, wait a minute, trump is right, because there's a lot of bad things. you look at philadelphia last night, you look at all these things that are happening. a lot of people are saying we have to study and see what's going on. we cannot destroy this incredible country of ours. can't do it. and i hope i win iowa. if i don't win, that can also happen and i go right to new hampshire where we're doing great. i go right to south carolina where we're doing great. in nevada we're leading big and

we go to the s.e.c. we're leading big. but i would love to win iowa. i've spent a lot of time here. >> your chief competitor is ted cruz. you've brought up in the canadian citizenship issue. but let me ask you your opinion. do you believe he is constitutionally eligible? >> i would say that i would nt the supreme court to rule because they haven't ruled. when you look at lawrence tribe of harvard say that it's a real question and a real problem, look, if ted wins, he's been very nice to me, i've been very nice to him. but if ted wins, becomes the nominee, day one he's going to be sued by the other party. >> do you think it's between you and him at this point? do you buy the idea? >> no. >> most every poll now it is one-two, you and him? >> no, i don't think so. i think other people could sneak up. some are doing really badly that i thought would do. and ted's doing better than i would have thought. ted's not anywhere close to number two in new hampshire.

if you look at that poll. but we'll have to see. ted and i are definitely number one and two in iowa. so that's where we are and we're going to see how that -- and i happen to think that from my standpoint -- now politically, i should say, if i come in two, three, four, or five in iowa, i wouldn't be. >> you're going to be unhappy if you lose iowa? >> i would like to win iowa. i say that with trepidation, because this way if i come in at number two. . but if you look at ted in new hampshire, he's not doing well at all. >> well, you heard it there with donald trump and ted cruz running neck and neck in iowa. trump is no longer holding his fire against cruz. now iowa's governor, terry branstad is also weighing in on cruz's citizenship issue, saying, quote, when you run for president of the united states, any question is fair game. so let the people decide. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell says the senate won't

step in with a resolution declaring ted cruz a natural born citizen like they did in 2008 for john mccain. >> i've made a point of staying out of the presidential race. these guys are all running their races as hard as they can -- >> but this is a big responsibility. >> i don't think the senate out to get in the middle of it. >> even though they did in 2008. >> i just don't think the senate ought to get into the middle of this. these guys will all slug it out in iowa in new hampshire and we'll have a nominee hopefully by sometime in the spring. >> joining me now, communication director, thank you for taking a few minutes. this is striking when you think back to 2008. john mccain, born in the panama canal zone. they came out and said not an issue, this guy's eligible to be president, move on to the next thing. this issue was raised last week. you have that branstad quote i just raised, mcconnell, mccain

last week. seems like the republican establishment, people in our own party, are eager to have an opportunity here to make ted cruz sweat a little bit. what do you read into that? >> i read the establishment is panicking. look, i agree with senator mcconnell, i don't want the senate to intervene in the campaign. senator mcconnell is not going to pass a resolution we didn't ask for. the senate passes resolutions all the time. they can send a resolution up that turns monday into tuesday and in the end, it's irrelevant. >> let me ask you, do you consider what donald trump is doing right now, because he's framing this a little differently than a lot of the stuff he says about other candidates. he's saying i like ted, i'm trying to help ted, this isn't a personal attack. do you think, is this an attack by donald trump on ted cruz? >> well, i don't know if it's passive aggressive or passive regressive. look, they attack you when you're winning. and so before they were all

attacking donald trump, now they're all attacking ted cruz. that just comes with success. so we're not worried about it. >> i just want to be clear, you do consider this to be donald trump attacking you? >> look, you'd have to ask him why he's raising the question. i think he's raising the question because he thinks there's political purpose in it. i don't. because we just finished a six-day, 28-county tour, and this question came up one single time in the hundreds of questions and the thousands of people that we saw. and really the media didn't ask very much about it. i understand why those in new york city are fascinated by it because there's entertainment value, maybe, but to people in iowa, they're not making up their mind over this issue. so i'm really not all that worried about it. >> is it something though, strictly from a legal standpoint, is it something that you're prepared for to go to the courts? donald trump is saying the democrats will make this an issue. saying i think ted cruz say

canadian, i want to go to court and fight this thing. are you ready to fight this in court? >> ted cruz was born to an american citizen. he hasn't breathed a single breath on this planet where he wasn't an american citizen. his mother was born in delaware. we've gone down this road before. john mccain was born in the panama canal territory. barry gold water was born in arizona before it was a state. george romney as mitt romney indicated this week, was born in mexico to mexican missionaries who were american. they were all american citizens. ted cruz is an american citizen. we can go round and round about it and that's fine, but even the first congress, many of those who served in the continental congress had defined a natural born citizen as someone born to american parents. so i think we're on solid ground. the harvard law review, the solicitor general meant one democrat, one republican, both concluded beyond the shadow of a doubt that ted cruz is an

american by definition. he meets the definition of a natural-born citizen. so they can make it an issue all they want, but in the end, it's not going to be an issue. >> rick tyler, thanks so much. still ahead, the president prepares to lay out his last state of the union address. and big news out of the supreme court that could impact the future of public sector unions. we'll have the details next. th. so strap yourselves in for action flo! small business edition. oh, no! i'm up to my neck in operating costs! i'll save the day! for plumbers and bakers and scapers of lawn, she's got insurance savvy you can count on. you chipped my birdbath! now you're gonna pay! not so fast! i cover more than just cars and trucks. ♪ action flo did somebody say "insurance"? children: flo! ♪ action flo cut! can i get a smoothie, please? ooh! they got smoothies? for me. but zzzquil is different have pain medicine because why would you take a pain medicine

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♪ ♪ why fit in when you were born to stand out. the 2016 nissan altima has arrived. ♪ the supreme court heard a case today that could deal a crippling blow to public sector unions. justices will decide if state government workers who are not in a union can be required to pay a portion of union dues to cover contract negotiation costs. in 1977, the high court ruled these non-union employees had to share the burden of contract negotiation costs to avoid what's called free riding. nonunion teachers in california claim that paying these fees

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six presidential hopefuls are are finding common ground today, but will it make a difference? the no labels group was founded on providing political coverage for candidates of all parties to try to work together. red hot rhetoric is taking over and has helped to boost the polling for candidates like donald trump and ted cruz, though. and the message that no labels is pushing doesn't seem to be getting through. this year, the group asked all presidential candidates to embrace four goals that focus on jobs, the budget, securing medicare and social security,

and energy independence. today they revealed who signed on. ben carson, chris christie, rand paul and, john kasich, and donald trump. o'malley said, i think you are watering down and dumbing down your problem-solver label when you bestow it on someone like donald trump. when donald trump says things like all mexicans are rapists and murderers that is not being a leader. that's not solving problems. there's other adjectives for that, one of them being racist. joining me now from manchester, new hampshire, the two former presidential candidates and current national co-chairs of no labels, joe lieberman of connecticut and john huntsman. so thank you both for joining us. senator lieberman, i'll start with what martin o'malley just said and we just read there. he said you are looking to shine a light on problem solvers here. you have donald trump saying all the things he's said, he's not

worthy of that title. what do you say to that? >> so what we say is that we intentionally made this, i guess you might say objective. we're asking all the candidates, left, right, center, democrat, republican, don't just tell us what you want to do if you get elected. tell us how you're going to do it because that's what's been missing in american government in the last several years. and the how really is that you promise to work together across party lines to start to negotiate compromises to achieve great national goals. so we didn't bestow anything today as no labels. we simply recognize the six presidential candidates, including donald trump, who made this promise to no labels, but really to the american people. i understand the reaction, but i think it misunderstood what we really did today. this was a promise donald trump made to us, not an award that we

gave him. >> well, governor huntsman, let me take this from a different angle, because i think the comments from martin o'malley and you have both him and donald trump signing on to this, gets to one of the criticism. 25 million jobs over the next ten years, securing social security, balancing the federal budget, energy security by 2024. it's hard to be against any of those things in principle. so does the fact that you can get donald trump and martin o'malley to sign off on them, say these are two watered down to mean anything. >> well, that's the beauty of our gathering here, the fact that we can get a very diverse cross section of politicians. a bipartisan group which here in new hampshire for an event like this is absolutely unprecedented, steve. much like the october summit we had to problem-solving, where we had eight candidates, a bipartisan group. that's the beauty of what we're trying to do. we're not talking about the here and now, what the candidates

want to do. we're talking about a process of goal-setting ultimately for the next president of the united states. and we hope in the first week of december, steve, to have what i call an idea palooza. having governors and members of congress come together to basically look at a bipartisan approach to specific elements that would be part of these four big policy areas. >> let me ask you this, governor, you ran in the republican primaries four years ago. if donald trump is the nominee of the republican party, could you support him? >> well, i'm a republican and i respect the wishes of the delegates who turn out, and the will of the people. there's a lot of water to go under that bridge, but i'll be inclined to support the republican nominee, yes. >> and senator lieberman, let me ask you a version of that question. hillary clinton, the front-runner on the democratic side, has not signed this pledge that no labels has put out

there. could you still support her if she's the democratic nominee? >> oh, sure. but i must say that i'm puzzled about -- we talked before about donald trump making the problem solvers promise and the other five that we announced today, quite a diverse group. i'm puzzled why the other nine didn't make the promise. because as john huntsman just said, we framed those questions in very broad terms so they would be acceptable to a wide group of potential presidents, hoping that they would make that promise because then they'll get into the details in their negotiations. so i hope before long secretary clinton will also make the problem solvers promise. >> when you were in the senate back in 1998, you famously went to the floor of the senate at the height of the impeachment drive against bill clinton and among all democrats, you condemned his behavior more

forcefully than anybody. and that story, the lewinsky story is back in the news right now, donald trump trying to make an issue out of bill clinton's behavior towards women. there was another allegation that emerged after impeachment that's back in the news as well. in your opinion, is this a relevant issue, bill clinton's behavior? >> it's not for me. in other words, i think hillary clinton is running and really this ought to be about what are the priorities of the various candidates, including hillary clinton, and again from a no labels perspective, we work across party lines to get something done. that's what this is about, not something that happened in the '90s, which is now getting to be a pretty long time ago. >> former senator joe lieberman, former governor john huntsman, thank you both for joining us. >> thank you. up next, the who, what, where, when, and why in today's

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learn more at myusps.com why blend in with the crowd? why shy away from the extraordinary? why fit in, when you were born to stand out? the 2016 nissan altima has arrived. time now for the ws. starting with a who. it's all five paid staffers for the pro-carson super pac in new hampshire. wmur television in manchester reports they quit on sunday to become volunteers for ted cruz's

campaign. the what. it is dwindling party identification. gallup finds that 42% of americans now identify as independents. 29% as democrats, 26% as republicans. those numbers are among the lowest that gallup has ever seen for the two major parties. the when. the when is today. today is inauguration day in louisiana for new governor john bel edwards, he becomes the only democratic governor in the deep south. and he tweeted out that he plans to accept federal funding to expand medicaid starting tomorrow. now the where, it's the red arrow diner in manchester, new hampshire. donald trump stopped in for some rare retail politicking today. he ordered what is called a newton burger. the diner's facebook page describes that burger as between two grilled cheese sandwiches with fried mac and cheese. trump is also tonight's why. the nfl playoffs started this weekend and trump took some time

to knock the league on the stump in nevada. >> now they tackle, oh, head on head collision, 15 yard -- the whole game is all screwed up. you say, wow, what a tackle! football's become soft. football has become soft. now, i'll be criticized for that. they'll say, oh, isn't that terrible? but football's become soft like our country has become soft. >> now, remember, donald trump has a history with the nfl. back in the 1980s, he owned the new jersey generals and the old rival usfl, he led the charge in a doomed legal fight against the nfl. and that was the end of the usfl. we'll have more "mtp daily" right after this. caring for someone with alzheimer's means

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we have some brand-new video here to show you. this is from just moments ago, donald trump, the republican front-runner, walking into this very building. he's here at 30 rock in new york to tape "the tonight show" starring jimmy fallon, and you can catch that on your local nbc station at 11:35 p.m. tonight. next in the lid, what to expect from tomorrow's state of the union address and how it could impact the 2016 race.

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i know, it's like they're always on television. what?

the president sat us down late last year to say i don't want it to be a list of policy choices. we have a lot of policy. you'll hear about that over the course of this year. what he wants to do is talk about a vision for the future of this country. we feel like we can win this future. we feel optimistic about the future. that's a difference between us and what's going on in the public debate. that's what you'll hear about tuesday night. >> time for "the lid." that was white house chief of staff dennis mcdonough previewing tomorrow's state of the union address. joining me is our panel. a lot i want to get to with you guys. we'll start with the state of

the union and move out to the presidential race. final year of the obama presidency. he is going to try to set his agenda. in many ways for this president it's been working around congress. >> and the frustration with the idea they can negotiate with the other side. not much policy will get done through the congress. i think the president is in bully pulpit mode. you think you'll hear going forward and looking back, too i would expect there would be a victory lap on health care reform, which hasn't been done in a robust way. then some big picture things. >> maybe set the agenda for the campaign. >> i think this speech is not about his next year. it's about the next year on the campaign trail and setting the stage for a successor. he has to make the case the voters should pick the person who will continue his policies instead of opposing them. that's what it's all about. making the case, as you said, for the successive administration on jobs and perhaps isis, if he can. >> interesting to see hillary

clinton who he defeated back in 2008 trying so hard to run so close to the president. >> it's tricky. it's tricky for the president. he is looking at his legacy, then looking at the campaign on the other. historians will most likely be pretty kind to obama over the long term. it will be hard for the president and for hillary clinton to get the country to buy into the idea that the country's really doing well right now. people are quite dissatisfied. >> what do you spigot on the republican side? the response tomorrow is coming from nikki haley. this is somebody whose personal background, story with the confederate flag in south carolina, somebody the republican party would like to showcase. >> potentially as a vice presidential nominee. that's been the buzz. we'll see if she can rise to the occasion or be a repeat with bobby jindal. >> there are a few who had that. bob mcdonnell went to prison, i think. >> let's shift gears here to the

presidential race. we started at the top. all these new numbers coming out. iowa and new hampshire. let me ask you what you make of this. we've been through so many iterations of donald trump, it will last two weeks, soon we'll say he can't win a second term, i think. when we look at this, he is within striking distance in iowa, up in one new poll in iowa. he is leading 2-1 in new hampshire. when you look at this race, does that republican establishment have to catch him? if they don't catch him in iowa or new hampshire, can they stop him or is this a runaway train? >> a run away train in the sense of the establishment of the republican party has lost touch with a broad part of the base of their own party. they have to understand the rebellion is against them. if you add up all the establishment favorites, they get to about 40%. even if you set aside donald trump, the trump/cruz outsider phenomenon is bigger than what the establishment can handle.

i don't think they can catch up. >> i think a lot of those people in that number are independent. that's why you see if bernie sanders was matched against donald trump, sanders would win. the ground game of donald trump is very weak. i think the polling suggests he could win by a margin that includes a lot of people hornet actually going to show up to the polls. his ground game in iowa, they said by november trump's people said we'll have a precinct captain, 1,700, they had less than 200. i don't know if he has the organizational, very unsexy. >> it was interesting when we had the marist poll earlier, he is picking up signs of record enthusiasm on both sides. let me ask you quickly. in terms of that republican establishment you talk about. rubio, christie, kasich, bush, who is best positioned to knock him off? >> i think depending how reliable the polling is, it says rubio would be the best.

it would be the strongest match against hillary from a generational perspective, latino. trump would be weak. 2-1 women have negative view points of donald trump. latinas have a negative view of donald trump in a general latino election. i think trump would be a flat candidate. i think rubio would be the best response to that. >> we talked about this at the top of the show. the polling shows this huge age gap on the democratic side. people under 45 years old are for sanders over clinton. 2-1. you go over 45, she is cleaning his clock. >> i think hillary has serious concerns. she is still the favorite to win the nomination, but she has concerns. what i think is interesting is the electorate in general has been looking for the same thing in the past few presidential elections. change, which was obama's mantra. the public at large has not received from any administration yet the kind of change it's looking for. >> what about the idea here we

talked about this, too, if bernie sanders could put it together, iowa, new hampshire, that one-two punch. we look at south carolina and he is getting clobbered down there. 40, 50 points behind hillary. his campaign says if we win iowa or new hampshire, whole new ballgame. it's panic city for clinton. do you buy into that? does she have a fire wall down south? south carolina and these s.e.c. states that will protect her? >> people forget at this point in the campaign how hard it is to sell defeat to your supporters and donors. when you lose and lose twice in a row, it sucks. it's bad for your candidacy. it extinctistinks of failure. if he takes both those states to have some momentum coming into south carolina and later states. on the other hand, he does not have a close relationship with black voters and the base in south carolina. hillary clinton does. >> could you see that changing? >> you will see a reevaluation.

if hillary clinton starts to look less electable or successful going into the south carolina primary, you could see people reevaluate. i think the clinton campaign has built-in strengths. they got an endorsement very important for the campaign which is trayvon martin's mother who has come out publically for hillary clinton. the more she can shore up among african-americans the fact she is inevitable to win and has more of an indepth relationship which the sanders campaign, they simply don't have. winning those first two states which are very white states will help. >> i agree. especially sanders, i don't think he has that currency. on age, unfortunately young people don't vote as much as older people do. that is a structural disadvantage bernie sanders has. >> the sanders campaign says the polls say we are more electable. we do better than hillary does. >> i don't think voters are looking at that. analysts look at that.

voters come out of their gut. they look at the candidates and say which one do i like better? >> thank you to joy, nick, bob and to carrie. we'll be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily" and "with all due respect" starts right now. with all due respect to cold opens, today we would rather listen to a little bowie. ♪ changing ♪ time to face the strain ♪ changes greetings from the des moines register newsroom in des moines, iowa, or as we like to call it ground control. we are exactly three weeks out from the iowa caucuses for both parties. the democrat candidates are gathering here in this city tonight for the iowa brown and black forum. it's an event hosted by the television network fusion and build as the oldest presidential forum focused on minority