more hard line and on the american side, the confidence of the pentagon showed should have indicated to everyone, that i think it's under control. i think they trusted the iranians -- >> the test was this morning. and they did. >> and also the iranians have come through with every promise they have made on the nuclear deal, too. so that was another indication we should trust them on this. >> thank you very much. the rachel maddow show starts now. >> good evening. >> thanks at home for joining us this hour. i basically still have not slept since the state of the union. such an exciting time of year. that particular secular holiday rolls around. i was too wired after the state of the union last night to sleep at all. which basically means this show tonight -- this hour will be hilarious if only i shouldn't be trusted to drive a car or cross the street alone. let alone, hold a tv show for an hour. what could possibly go wrong? but anyway, let's go.

september of this past year, conservatives in washington decided to hold a rally at the u.s. capitol to oppose the impending nuclear deal with iran. they were very excited for the speakers at this rally in september, because for one, they got out of hiding. former republican party vice presidential nominee sarah palin, she -- sort of hadn't been seen in months. but there she was in the flesh at the anti iran rally. they also got one of the biggest tv stars in the republican party's cultural firmament to turn out for that rally. >> we are anti perversion, for crying out loud! and we are pro god all mighty. we are pro gun. we're pro get your tail out there and go to work. therefore, i love you all. god loves you. i think that america, they

always say the same thing. i don't say too religious. you know what i say, i say america ain't religious enough! >> and that was the anti iran rally. that man's name is phil robertson. he is the star of the "duck dynasty" tv show, a very influential conservative media figure and republican party figure these days. and today mr. robertson showcases his personal republican presidential endorsement the for 2016 in an ad. the new ad that's just out in the presidential race that i believe might be the most effective republican ad of this whole political cycle so far. watch. >> my qualifications for president of the united states are rather narrow. is he or she godly. does he or she love us. can he or she do the job. and finally, would they kill a duck and put them in a pot and

make a good duck gumbo? i've looked at the candidates. ted cruz is my man. he fits the bill. he's godly. he loves us. he's the man for the job. and he will go duck hunting. because today we're going. ted cruz is my man. i'm voting for him. >> cruz, the reason we're going to vote for you, all of us, is because you're one of us, my man. >> thank you. >> that's why we're voting for you. it's now or never. >> i have not seen a better republican presidential campaign ad this year. whatever you think of phil robertson or of ted cruz, or of ted cruz's shooting at ducks technique, i think it is not hard to imagine that this will be a very effective political ad for the ted cruz campaign. particularly in states with lots of culturally conservative,

evangelical voters. like, say, for example, iowa. actually, ted cruz needs a boost right now. he has now been running far enough ahead in iowa that he has created the expectation that he's going to win that state. he has been leading in that state pretty consistently over the last couple of weeks. and that's great for him. as long as he does win iowa. it would be devastating for him if he didn't. and new polling out today in iowa shows his lead there in that state is shrinking. iowa has become a must-win state for ted cruz. this "duck dynasty" ad may be just the boost he needs in that state. we don't know. this ad also comes on a day that has been a cuff news day for a lot of other competing republican campaigns. jeb bush, for example, continues to pull terrible polling numbers in the early states and national polling. also jeb bush in the last couple days. the des moines register poll in iowa tonight puts him at 4% in iowa. the ppp poll that came out

yesterday in iowa puts him at 6% in iowa. the cbs new york times poll that is a national poll that came out last night puts him at 6% nationwide. jeb bush's numbers just continue to smell. whatever he's doing to try to turn around his campaign, it's not working. and on top of that, he got this very depressing headline today at politico.com, which was first to report on the closing of one jeb bush supporting super pac. the super pac called vamos for jeb. they explained to politico, they were a super pac designed to showcase hispanic support for jeb bush. quote, when jeb bush first announced he was going to run, we thought he was going to be the president to go for it and unite hispanics with americans. obviously, that is slightly awkward phrasing, but i think we know what she means there, maybe. but then obviously donald trump came in the picture and changed everything. completely changed everything. and so therefore, vamos for jeb

2016 has shut itself down. they wrote a letter to the fec explaining they neither raised nor disbursed any funds and would like the fec to, quote, terminate and be discontinued. so that's not good news for jeb bush. that said. they didn't raise any funds or disburse any funds and so jeb bush probably wasn't counting on them. and given that, you probably would rather be jeb bush today than, say, chris christie today. because yeah, jeb bush had a bad day. but the news for chris christie is not only bad today, it is potentially really going to be bad in coming weeks. you'll recall that two chris christie associates, his deputy chief of staff you see on the right there and his top appointee to one important state agency, they're both going on criminal trial this spring in april, because they are both accused of a criminal political conspiracy, a conspiracy to shut down access lanes on to the world's busiest bridge as a

political vendetta of some sort designed to punish other political figures in new jersey who did not support chris christie's re-election effort when he was running for a second term as governor. three people in all were criminally charged in the bridge gate case. one pled guilty. he was due to be sentenced this week, but his sentencing has been delayed. you'll remember he is cooperating with the prosecution in the other two cases. the other two cases, they haven't pled guilty. they pled not guilty and are due to go on trial in april. in the case of the two who have not pled guilty, a filing was just made with the court today. by several news organizations. and i should tell you that nbc universal is one of those news organizations. we filed this legal brief on behalf of wnbc, the nbc affiliate in new york city. but it's nbc universal and a bunch of other news organizations, and their joint legal brief asks for public disclosure of some potentially very explosive information from that bridge gate trial. apparently this week in that trial, federal prosecutors filed

with the court a list of unindicted co conspirators. people who were not criminally charged in this case, at least not at this point, but they are people who the government believes played a role in this criminal conspiracy. news organizations have filed a brief, telling the court that that list -- those names, those unindicted co conspirators, they ought to be disclosed publicly, because the brief argues, it is almost a foregone conclusion that that list of unindicted co conspirators includes public employees and public officials. and is therefore, the country has a right to know. specifically, the legal brief filed with the court name-checks chris christie, part of the legal argument being made for why the unindicted co conspirators in bridge gate should be exposed is because, depending on who is on that list, it could, quote, impact the presidential campaign of new jersey's governor. chris christie. within who's administration the circumstances underlying these charges arose.

nobody knows exactly when the court is going to rule on this motion. but the iowa caucuses are less than three weeks away. so this was not just a terrible headline today in the new jersey press for chris christie. this affords the prospect of a lot more, much more terrible headlines to come. depending on what the court decides and who the unindicted co conspirators are. and then there's rand paul. the next republican presidential debate is tomorrow night, south carolina. it's being hosted by fox business, as we have been reporting for a few days now. rand paul doesn't have polling numbers good enough to qualify him to be in that debate. he is not going to make it on to the main stage. he has been offered a seat at the kids' table instead. he has said he will not take that seat at the kids' table. he insists he should be on the main stage, even though under the rules of the debate he didn't qualify to be there. you will recall that rand paul also did not qualify to be on the main stage it at the last republican debate, which was hosted by cnn.

but after apparently being pressured by the rand paul campaign, cnn in that debate decided they would break their own rules and let him on to the debate stage anyway. they said, in the spirit of inclusiveness, they would break their rules and not let the other kids' table people on to the main stage. they would just break their rules for rand paul. well, rand paul -- you do that for somebody once, they're going to keep expecting it. and rand paul is now engaged in a full-court press, doing tons of media all day long today, making this public case, lobbying publicly that once again, the rules should be broken for him. once again, he says even though he didn't qualify to be at this debate either, he should be allowed on the debate stage anyway. again. and in making that public case today, he has decided to call in the big guns. the big super crazy don't let them take your guns. >> we are still jockeying and saying absolutely count all the polls, and get us in there, because we deserve to be in the debate. >> what does my audience do to

get you in that at any time, senator? >> i think the best thing would be to call the republican national committee and tell reince priebus that they need to allow all voices to be heard in the debate and that it's not fair to exclude me from the debate. >> we're going to get that number and bring it up after the break. >> senator rand paul today calling on internet conspiracy theorist radio host alex jones and his many amazing followers, calling on them to call reince priebus. call the republican party chairman and lobby for rand paul to be given special treatment once again. to get into a debate for which he is not qualified. alex jones, just as a refresher, he's the guy who says the killing of first graders at sandy hook elementary school was all faked. it didn't really happen. also the boston marathon bombing was faked, 9/11 was faked, the san bernardino shooting was faked. none of those things were real, according to alex jones. if you believe in those things, you're a patsy being set up by the government, because those

things were all conspiracies mounted by the federal government so they can come in and try to take your guns or put you in a camp or i don't know. but that's alex jones. and alex jones is rand paul's emergency escape hatch? his plan c? the republican debate tomorrow night. enlist the army of alex jones conspiracy theorists. we'll see if that works. reince priebus. you might want to check the caller i.d. before you pick up the phone. so this day after the state of the union, it has been a difficult day for a lot of republican presidential campaigns. the day has basically been great, though, for the man who was obliquely referenced in a critical way by president obama a couple of times in his state of the union speech and a man who was directly referenced in a negative way in the official republican response to that speech.

>> i just want to be clear here. that when you were talking about those loudest voices, those angriest voices, in that context, you were referring to donald trump, correct? >> he was one of them, yes. >> that was nikki haley, who gave the initial republican response to the state of the union address last night. confirming that when she made critical remarks about the loudest, noisiest voices in the room who should be ignored, she was, in fact, talking about donald trump. mr. trump responded to that exactly the way you think he would respond. >> well, what i would say to here i'm leading in south carolina by a lot in all of the polls. i'm strong on illegal immigration. she is weak on illegal immigration. she is very, very weak on it. she's big on amnesty and therefore we have a disagreement. she comes up to my office when she wants campaign contributions and i've given her tremendous contributions over the years. but i guess now that i'm running she doesn't like me quite as much.

she liked me better when i was a giver of contributions than she does when i'm not. >> what do you think her motives are for going after you so publicly and so strongly? >> well, she probably figures maybe it's good for her, maybe it's not good for her. maybe it will turn out to be very bad for her. because people know where i stand, and, you know, you see the numbers. >> that's one level on which this is happening. the day after the state of the union. that's interesting. kinetic fighting, a punch and judy show. one person saying, i don't like you, you're bad for the country. the other person saying you don't like me because you're a terrible person and you're bad for the country. that's fairly typical at this point, even if it does involve mr. trump. and so there is always a little element of oh, my god, who is going to say what next. what is not at all it typical here, and, in fact, is way more interesting here and sort of suspenseful here, this wasn't just one republican figure criticizing another republican political figure.

this was one republican who happens to be the republican presidential front runner being criticized not just by another politician, but being criticized in the official republican party response to the president's state of the union address. and yes, governor nikki haley, sure, is speaking for herself. but she also confirmed today that her remarks were cleared in advance by republican speaker of the house, paul ryan, and by senate majority leader, mitch mcconnell. they were praised by reince priebus. she is speaking for the republican party. this say republican party approved message, attacking donald trump directly. their party's presidential front runner. and remember, donald trump has been saying over and over and over again over a period of months that if the republican party does not treat him fairly, he will leave the party and he will run as an independent instead. does this count as the republican party not treating him fairly? it's the official state of the union response. from their party being substantially about what a terrible candidate he is. what a terrible person he is,

and how terrible he would be for the country. is that the way a party treats its front runner fairly? there's no sign so far that mr. trump is going to bolt the party. his lead among republican party voters appears, frankly, insurmountable basically everywhere except iowa, and ask ted cruz in iowa, donald trump's numbers are going up. mainstream media and a lot of democrats might have liked what nikki haley had to say, but conservative talk radio and online today was 100% anti nikki haley and pro donald trump. and as thousands of people turned out tonight to see donald trump speak in pensacola, florida, he was at a venue that can seat more than 10,000 people in pensacola tonight and appears to have done a good job filling it up, it is starting to feel like the republican party taking this basically official stance against their own presidential front runner, not only might not work, but it might more than not work.

there is one former high-ranking official in that party whose crystal ball on this subject has been particularly clear. who called this in advance and who says he knows what's going to happen next because of this. he joins us next. stay with us. tylenol® cold helps relieve your worst cold & flu symptoms... you can give them everything you've got. tylenol® want bladder leak underwear that try always discreet underwear and move, groove, wiggle, giggle, swerve, curve. lift, shift, ride, glide, hit your stride. only always discreet underwear has soft dual leak guard barriers to help stop leaks where they happen most and a discreet fit that hugs your curves, you barely feel it. always discreet underwear so bladder leaks can feel like no big deal. because hey, pee happens. get your free pair and valuable coupons at always discreet.com

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>> my prediction is, given what

happened tonight, given the affront to the trump campaign from both the president and the gop establishment, by friday, trump's numbers will be closer to 45%. >> wow. so you see the haley response in particular with its direct shot at donald trump -- you see that as jet fuel for the trump campaign? >> oh, yeah. >> that seemed a little bit crazy last night when michael steele said it. but already today it feels like that is what's going to happen. mr. crystal ball joining us now as former chairman of the rnc, michael steele. great to see you again so soon. thank you for coming back. >> absolutely, absolutely. >> do you stand by your prediction? >> i do. i do. and i think you're showing polls tonight that show the upward movement in places like iowa. you're seeing the gap widen in national polls from across the country. and i think, again, the problem that the establishment types have in this town is that they continually overplay their hand, because they don't fully understand nor appreciate exactly what donald trump is representing more and more every day to americans. and that is this sense of he's got this. i'm the leader who is actually

going to go fight for you. i'm not going to cut a side deal. i'm not going to bait and switch. i'm not going to tell you one thing and do something else. we're going to do these things that i say, and we're going to do them in a big way. and you're going to be a part of it. and that sense of connection to a lot of -- for a lot of republicans is important when they look back on what some have described to me as milk toast leadership on a good day, and a treacherous one on most days. so there's animosity there. >> sorry to interrupt you there. i didn't mean to. but let me just clarify what you're saying here. it sounds to me like, doesn't necessarily mean that the republican party doesn't -- and the republican establishment doesn't have an interest in going after donald trump. but given that that's his appeal, the absolute wrong way to criticize him is by saying he's intemperate or an inappropriate personality. that will help him. that won't hurt him, because that's part of what people like about him. >> that's part of what people like about him. but then not just saying what you said, but taking the actions, as we -- as you reported several weeks ago, a few -- actually, last month in

december, the secret meeting in washington between the leadership and mcconnell and others talking about what to do about donald trump. well, the answer to that is nothing. let the primary voters work this out on their own. they haven't cast a vote yet. so we still don't know exactly whether the numbers we're saying right now, rachel, will translate into turnout, into votes and caucuses, et cetera. that's to come. but every day there's more and more attempts by those who don't want trump in the lead here to take him out. it just locks him in. and they need to be careful about that. >> so as a former rnc chairman -- and i think the really important thing here about the nikki haley comments last night were not just that nikki haley said this thing, but that she said it in that venue, it was approved text, approved by paul ryan, approved by mitch mcconnell, praised by reince priebus in advance. so it really is an official stance. do you think this was basically

malpractice? whether or not you agree with the aim of trying to derail donald trump, do you think that they're basically being bad at their jobs in the way they're trying to do it? >> i do. i would not have used that speech to go after the leading candidate for the nomination of the party. i just wouldn't. you've seen the backlash. you've heard it on talk radio from laura ingram to rush limbaugh to le vin. grass roots activists. i've been on the phone today, events last night before and after this speech in which there was consternation. there was anger. how dare they. what are they trying to do. let us make this choice. those are the words that i hear

over and over again. and it's very clear, rachel, that the heavy-handedness is not winning the day for the candidates that they think are going to rise in place of donald trump. and donald trump is finding ways every day -- if you notice, he's getting more presidential, if you will. he's using notes. he's really beginning to drill down on the mechanics of closing the deal with these voters. and that's what is scaring the establishment types so much. >> michael steele, msnbc political analyst, former chairman of the republican party. i like talking to you about these things. i don't do it enough. i'm really glad you were able to come back. >> any time. >> thank you, sir. >> alrighty. >> i think the point michael made at the top, is the most important one. it is fine to have whatever political aim you have against whatever candidate. but if you are trying to take a candidate down a notch, you have to understand why they've got those notches in the first place. what it is that is appealing to voters about them if you want to try to undo that.

and bring them back down to earth. and when you take aim at donald trump for being intemperate, republican voters see that as a badge of honor with this guy.

in 1986, president ronald reagan was scheduled to deliver his state of the union address. but that day, the space shuttle challenger exploded. he instead delivered a short speech from the oval office, praising the seven crew members who died in that explosion. just three years ago, president obama began his state of the union as a nine-day manhunt was

coming to close in california for christopher dorner. remember that case? an ex police officer who went on a long shooting rampage and killed four people. officers had cornered mr. dorner in a burning cabin, just as president obama entered the house chamber to start giving the state of the union. oh, and also, north korea just conducted a nuclear test that morning. the news doesn't always stop for a state of the union address. last night was no exception. the big breaking news story that was unfolding as president obama spoke last night, we still don't really understand it. but it is going to probably affect our politics if not our international relations for a long, long time, and there is one piece of it that is really unforgivably strange. and that's next. guys, to celebrate super bowl 50 i'm rewarding fans with a special offer. order a large pizza and get a second large pizza for 50 cents. 50 cents?! that's pocket change! if only we had pockets...

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the previous president of iran was a furious little guy named mahmoud ahmadinejad. he has not been president since 2013. but his lasting visual image in the world is his trademark look. even to this day, if you see someone for some reason who is wearing a button down slim fit light cotton shirt and a rumpled suit but definitely, definitely, no tie ever, that is the mahmoud ahmadinejad look, particularly if you're a little short guy.

that trademark looking so identified with mahmoud ahmadinejad is part of what made these visuals so unsettling back in 2007. this was april 4th, 2007, the day that 15 british marines were finally freed by ahmadinejad's government in iran after iran held those marines in captivity for 13 straight days. they had picked up these marines when they were inspecting a merchant vessel that they suspected of some kind of smuggling. it became a huge international incident. iran held the one female marine and 14 male marines for nearly two weeks. when they let them go, they dressed all the guys up like ahmadinejad. they dressed them up in ahmadinejad suits, and is made a big show of them all meeting with the president and being given those suits and also some persian carpets as parting gifts. it was kind of funny on the surface, but it was awful and gut-wrenching in context, given that they were prisoners. that was eight and a half years ago. this time, this week, it was ten american sailors.

nine men and one woman who were taken by the iranians yesterday. this time, thankfully, the sailors were freed much more quickly. it wasn't two weeks. they were freed this morning. they were held just one night by iran. and the quick release of the sailors should be seen as i think a rebuke to the republicans, including republican presidential candidates who said president obama should have pounded his chest last night about these sailors. in his state of the union address, he should have turned those sailors into domestic political theatre in the united states. the president did not do that. he did not risk doing that. and the sailors were back at a u.s. navy base before washington woke up this morning with the president having not fouled it up by making it into a giant public incident. but that doesn't mean that iran avoided using those sailors for its own political theatre.

geneva conventions say that prisoners of war shouldn't be paraded. they should be protected from insults and public curiosity. it's generally interpreted to mean that images and videos of prisoners shouldn't be broadcast by the government that's holding them. we are not at war with iran and these americans therefore are not prisoners of war but the principle still holds and it is unnerving to see these american sailors with their boots off and with parts of their uniforms off. it is unnerving to see their passports being flipped in front of the camera. it is particularly unnerving to see them surrendering. hands up. kneeling. and then iranian military personnel pawing over their guns and their ammunition and presumably everything else that was on board. those two small u.s. navy boats that the iranians had for the last 24 hours while they were holding these american service members against their will. iranian state tv also broadcast this out of context apology. >> it was a mistake. that was our fault. and we apologize for our mistake. the iranian behavior was fantastic while we were here.

we thank you very much for your hospitality, and your assistance. >> we do not know if that sailor was apologizing under duress, nor do we know what he was apologizing for. they determined that the americans, quote, illegal entry into iranian water was not the result of a purposeful act. okay. if so, then what is this guy's purported out of context apology all about? if there was nothing purposely done wrong? we don't know. but now that this thing is over, there are three things here. number one, obviously the most important, is the good news that these ten u.s. sailors are back and safe. the administration says they basically were able to get them freed so fast, because there are direct lines of communication now between our diplomats and iran's diplomats. and that's because of all the negotiating on the nuclear deal. and so that indeed is very positive. that is a very concrete consequence of those open lines of communication, right? so that's first. the sailors are safe. that is the most important.

the second point, unavoidably, is that the iranians parading americans like this, american prisoners like this, on videotape. this is disgusting. this is stomach-turning. but that's what they did. that's the second point. and the third point, which i will leave you with, i think is more controveral. which is how on earth did this happen? first, the explanation was from and the third point, which i will leave you with, i think is more controversial. which is how on earth did this happen? first, the explanation was from the u.s. government. from the pentagon. was that the -- the boats -- these two boats had had mechanical trouble that caused them to drift into iranian waters. okay. both of them did? then we get a defense official in washington telling the associated press that the navy has actually ruled that out. they have, quote, ruled out engine or propulsion failure as the reason the boats entered iranian waters. and honestly, you know, since the sailors were released this morning by putting them back on those very same boats and letting them sail away in those boats, that would imply there was nothing mechanically wrong

with the boats, right? unless the iranians spent all night doing engine repairs for them. then the "washington post" gets word that maybe the sailors ran out of gas. again, really? and also, both of them? both boats? and again, if it was them running out of gas, were they able to leave on those same boats this morning, because the iranians filled it up for them, loaned them a gas can? none of the explanations that we have been given for what happened here make any sense. i do not know what those little u.s. navy boats were doing out there in the open ocean all alone. and i don't know why they were where they were, and we don't know why they got caught by the iranians. that they are safe now is the most important thing. but what we are being sold here about what happened to them and why, at least so far, it is a pile of bull. when your type 2 diabetes numbers aren't moving in the right direction, it can be a burden.

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called legionnaires' disease in flint. which has also happened there since the city switched its water source. this legionnaires' outbreak has resulted in the deaths of ten people -- ten people dead in two separate outbreaks of legionnaires' disease since the city started drinking from the flint river. now, we do get outbreaks sometimes of legionnaires' disease in this country. last year, there were outbreaks in the state of illinois and new york. legionnaires' disease happens. it's caused by a bacteria, basically gives you pneumonia. pneumonia, which can kill you. the bacteria that causes it is commonly found in water. health officials in michigan say they do not yet know whether this, again, fatal outbreak is directly related to the change in flint's drinking water, but they are considering that possibility, and you can see why. flint switched to drinking local river water in april 2014. it was two months later in june that the first outbreak began.

all told, 87 people have gotten sick. and of the 87, 10 have died. is this sudden rise in legionnaires' related to flint's drinking water, the same corrosion problem that lead-poisoned the whole town, or is this a whole other thing? we don't yet know. the renown drinking water expert from virginia tech who is testing flint's water proved it was high in lead, even when the state was maintaining otherwise. professor mark edwards tonight says the same corrosion that chewed up the pipes and put the lead in the water, yeah, theoretically, at least, that same corrosion could have also killed off the chlorine that is supposed to keep legionnaires' at bay. and potentially could have given rise to this outbreak of legionnaires' disease. no one knows for sure. tonight they have new information from the governor about this fatal outbreak, on

top of the lead poisoning of that city.

after weeks of covering the astonishing lack of action to deal with lead poisoning disaster in flint, michigan, now all of a sudden in the past week a lot of things are happening. or at least a lot of things are being announced. last week, governor rick snyder declared a state of emergency and start handing out bottled water and filters. sunday he announced the state would start deploying teams of troopers to distribute water and filters door to door. then monday, the governor, miracle of all miracles, actually went personally to flint and took questions from the press. then yesterday in the middle of the state of the union address last night, governor snyder announced he would call up the

national guard to help with the response in flint. and then today as we just reported today, there was this chilling, very worrying press conference, suggesting that what we have in flint may not be a mass lead poisoning of an american city. the same mistakes concerning flint's water supply made by the state, those same mistakes may also have caused a fatal outbreak of legionnaires' disease that so far has killed ten people. the pace of developments in flint is just radically different from what it used to be. and some of that is satisfying to see, right, to feel that the response is at least cognizant of, if not exactly tracking the scale of the problem. but even as things have picked up, there have also been these moments when it becomes clear that something is still wrong with how this is being handled. for example, on monday, just two days after governor snyder announced that five flint firehouses would be water resource sites, local nbc reporter found three of those five firehouses were already either low on or completely out

of water and filters. after the governor's office announced that state personnel would be going door to door distributing water and filters, we learned that the entire effort for the whole city consisted of 20 people. 20 people going door to door in a city of 100,000 people and roughly 30,000 households. 20 people. and then there was governor snyder's big press conference in flint to formally announce the state's new beefed-up response. standing behind the governor, you see there on the left in this shot, was one of the true heroes of this disaster. the local pediatrician, who you may remember, she took it upon herself with no funding but with nothing but resistance from the state, to start testing not the lead in the water, but the lead in flint's kids, because of the lead in the water. and her results -- that doctor's results were scary and stunning and they basically blew this whole thing open. turns out, she found that the proportion of kids with elevated lead in their blood was nearly double what it had been before the town switched its water source. in some neighborhoods, the danger tripled, not doubled.

and at the time, the snyder administration basically told people not to believe her. they said her results were spliced and diced. state officials basically continued to say that everything was fine. despite this alarming data that she had turned in. but the doctor. dr. attisha known locally as dr. mona, she really was right and the state eventually had to she had turned in. but the doctor. dr. attisha known locally as dr. mona, she really was right and the state eventually had to admit it. and at his big flint press conference, rick snyder and his senior administration officials had dr. mona standing right up there with them, like part of their team. and the governor talked about how excited he was to work with her, specifically, how thankful he is for her work. he name-checked her several times. that said, dr. mona did not speak at that event. she just stood there. and there was this one -- intriguing moment when other people were talking, but she stood there, shaking her head.

>> our most recent data indicates that 43 of 2,182 adults and children tested had elevated blood lead levels since october 1st. this includes kids under the able of 6, and 13 adults. as part of this, once a child had an elevated blood level result, the department of human services is working with the general see health department to follow up case management. >> this is not subtle. this is the director of the michigan health department talking about how many cases they found of elevated blood lead levels, and dr. mona is right there, shaking her head, no, no, no, no, no. and we saw that, we wanted to know, what's the problem there? what is she reacting to so strongly on this day when supposedly everybody is at least supposed to look like they're on the same page?

joining us now is dr. attisha, a pediatrician in flint. doctor, thank you for being with us tonight. i hope i'm not getting you in trouble by asking you to explain this. butticn't help myself. i've got to ask. >> thanks for having me, rachel. i've always had trouble keeping a poker face. and when we heard them mentioning that there was only 43 people with elevated lead levels, i couldn't keep my expressions to myself, i guess. this is an entire population exposure. the entire population from child to adult who drank or cooked with this water from april 2014 to end date not set yet, everyone was exposed. it minimizes the problem because really this is a population-wide problem. and it's not just that small amount of people. >> if it is a population-wide problem, why are they talking about numbers that low? why aren't more people who they're testing showing elevated blood lead levels?

>> right. that's a great question. so lead lasts in your blood just a short period of time. so the half life of lead is only about 20 to 30 days and then it's gone. so a child could have had a peak lead level at 3 months, 4 months, 5 months. and we were screening children at the ages of 1 to 2 as recommended. we could have missed their peak and their level was no longer elevated. all of the testing that has happened really since the release of our press conference in late september only reflects recent exposure. and by and large the majority of people have been alerted to the water not being safe since late september. so the testing now is recent exposure. it does not mean -- it doesn't tell you what your lead level was a year ago or six months ago when this was at its worst.

>> am i right that there's no easy way to test overall exposure if if you're showing a lowell elevatored blood lead level, but you were exposed, your kids were exposed a long time ago, is there no easy way to test to show that long-term exposure? >> you could do a bone biopsy, but nobody's really signed up for that. so no, there's not great ways to tests past exposure. that's why we're under the assumption that the entire population was exposed and thus the entire population needs to benefit from interventions to mitigate that long-term exposure. >> we also got news about this legionnaires' disease outbreak. do you have information about whether that's related to this or how serious that is to flint? >> that's an adult disease, and i'm a kids doctor. but it does seem this corrosive water could be implicated. mona hannah attisha, thanks for joining us. one thing we're going to talk

about is the new initiative you're part of, including part of it which is publicly funded. people asking for do nations to support a fund and a task force for flint kids in the long run. we're going to talk about that in days ahead. thanks for being with us tonight. we appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. so i went pro. with crest pro-health advanced. advance to a healthier, stronger, cleaner mouth from day 1. this toothpaste... ...and mouthwash make my whole mouth feel amazing. and my teeth stronger. crest pro-health advanced is superior in these 5 areas dentists check. this is gonna go well, for sure. advance to a healthier stronger, cleaner mouth from day 1. great check up. my sister was right.

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>> president sanders has been a pretty reliable vote of the gun lobby. >> to say i'm kind of a supporter of the gun lobby is unfair, mean spirited and inaccurate statement. >> the democratic race for the president sounds different than it used to all of a sudden. it might have something to do with polling. the latest poll out has hillary clinton leading bernie sanders nationally by seven points. generally you would think that would be good news for the clinton campaign except for the fact that is down from her having a 20-point lead in the same poll a month ago. senator sanders is leading from the iowa poll in quinnipiac. he's up by five in iowa. and in new hampshire he's leading there as well. in that case by 14 points. the democratic race is really heating up. which is very exciting, no matter who you like for president.

but tomorrow, i'm very excited to say, former secretary of state hillary clinton will be here on this show. please do not miss this. this bat time, this bat channel. it's thursday, january 14th. right now on "first look," newly minted mullaly millionaires three winners of the world's largest jackpot in history with lucky tickets sold in california, florida, and tennessee. terror in indonesia. at least seven dead, including four attackers. late-breaking details ahead. did a love smitten drug lord's desire to meet a soap opera actress lead to his capture and downfall? plus police cal infighting among republicans desperate for party stability. stocks rocked down 10% since november. is the correction over? and the most popular part from the state of the union may be the first lady's dress. "first look" starts right now.