have fun down there. that does it for this hour of msnbc live. i'm kate snow. "mtp daily" starts right now. if it's thursday, it's the first republican debate of the new year, believe it or not. we know it's make or break time for a few of them. but the big question is, will trump and cruz play nice or continue their war of words? this is "mtp daily" and it starts right now. we are previewing what's going to be a big night in presidential politics. good evening. welcome to another edition of "mtp daily." we'll get right to tonight's take. and the big debate night in south carolina for the republican field. but we also have brand-new poll numbers, they don't just tell us exactly why this race is getting nasty with over two weeks to go in iowa but also give you an indication of why the

establishment really does need to panic inside the republican party, because it's possible they can't win. let me run through the numbers. donald trump has more than doubled his lead nationally, defied any perception of quote peaking. trump's 13-point lead over ted cruz was only five points last month. after cruz's rapid rise, his surge has stalled a bit. he and rubio technically dropped two points from the last time we in the field nationally. combine first and second and choicers trump and cruz in a dead heat. rubio is solid third. and everybody else is way behind because when -- so then, you can cut the field even further. when you cut the republican race down to the top five candidates trump keeps his double-digit lead over the rest of the field. then we decided, keep narrowing the race, eventually the race will become a two or three-candidate race. if you narrow it down, trump sits at 40, cruz at 31, rubio's behind him at 26. so what does this tell us?

the outside wing of the republican party is strong. by the way, how strong? let me show you these numbers. the real question, is it already over for the establishment? in a hypothetical head-to-head race rubio would fall to donald trump by seven points and the race boil the down to cruz versus trump, cruz would have the upper hand in that one. rubio's the top establishment candidate. and he can't beat even trump here. trump, by the way, ends up getting some establishment numbers put up against cruz but cruz is able to eat away at outsider numbers that trump does well with. the point, it goes cruz, trump, and then maybe rubio, but can rubio get to 50%? so far we didn't find proof. when republican votes asked who they see themselves supporting rubio still does come in second place. if he can't beat trump or cruz in one-on-one we have a clear sense of where the republican electorate wants to head. one more big gain to note,

percentage of republican voters who say they can see themselves supporting trump. it was 23% in march. it is now up to 65%. that is very close to where some of those establishment republicans started off when the race began. as the establishment does sense danger and cruz sees his numbers stalling the stage could get nasty tonight in south carolina. we saw the end of the love affair between cruz and trump. >> supposing he runs and everybody's banking on him and then the courts rule that he can't run. that's not so good. what do you do? concede the election to hillary clinton or crazy bernie? >> have you noticed trump is trying not to offend cruz supporters. cruz, though decided to throw off the gloves and he began a geographic line of attack against trump. >> the rest of the country knows exactly what new york values are. i've got say -- >> we love the pizza and bagels. >> not iowa, not new hampshire.

trump responded to the new york values attack today. >> i embrace, look, new york we took a big hit with the world trade center. worst attack ever in the united states when you look at area. it's incredible what they've rebuilt. when you knock new york, go through me. new york is an amazing place with amazing people. >> trump called the goldman sack loans cruz failed to report, quote, big thing that could come up tonight as well. but also be on the look jut for a fight between the establishment and outsiders and establishment themselves. after the tough reaction from some conservatives to governor nikki haley's state of the union response, it's clear the party might be more divided than ever. the fight in the establishment lane put rubio in the spotlight. he's fared well at debates and he gets small bumps in polling but then he stalls. he still is unable to totally break through. then you have the governors in the establishment wing, they seem to be ready to tear rubio down and each other.

listen to chris christie on "morning joe" on rubio. >> he doesn't understand the stuff because he's never done anything. the united states is like school. they tell you where to go, where to sit. the truant officer is out looking for him. >> wow. can any of the governments hoping to take rubio's top spot in the establishment lane emerge as a clear leader among them? what happens to ben carson? polling shows he still has a pulse, but his campaign doesn't look like that way and he's largely an afterthought in day to day politicking since last month. look for who isn't there. carly fiorina, only woman in the race, dropped down to undercard debate. and rand paul is boycotting the whole thing after kicked off the main stage. rand paul created fireworks when he was there. he's not a fireworks starter in this one. first debate of 2016. it's the second to last one before iowa, and it could be an extreme airing of grievances between the outsiders and establishment. ahead of 0 the south carolina debate we decided to speak to

one of the state's native sons, joining me, jim demint. senator demint, welcome back. >> great to be with you. >> one of the reasons you wanted to leave the senate you wanted to, i thinking lead the charge in remaking the conservative movement. if you look at where this race is headed right now, where you sort of have your insiders, struggling, and the outsiders are winning, do you feel as if you guys are -- you guys are winning? >> well, yeah, but not for the reason i'd like. americans are worried about their country, they're frustrated and rightly believe washington, whether it the republicans or democrats are all about favoritism for special interests and that's why you see bernie sanders on the left and that's why you see really a shakeup on the right. for us, the fact that all of the debate on the republican side is primarily about conservative ideas, some express them more eloquently than others but

that's -- the battle in the republican party is always, one way or another, been against the establishment versus the more free market, individual liberty, limited government republicans be and that goes on today but i think what we're seeing in this debate is we are winning. the people have lost faith in big government. >> but you started out saying you're not quite the way you hoped to. what does that mean? >> i don't want it to be because our country's coming apart at seams and people are rightly concerned about the debt, what we're doing with health care, what's happening with isis, and they don't see washington addressing that. and the candidates who are addressing that, now i hope what we'll see tonight is more solutions. how do they contrast themselves with hillarys -- >> we're not going to see solutions tonight, you know that. it is probably going -- look, it's getting tense. we're in the last few weeked. >> it hard to give you a solution in a minute and that's all you get. but we need to turn that way. that's why we're coming out with

a large solutions book next week to show the candidates where the real ideas are. >> i know you aren't going to endorse did -- you're not going to endorse yourself personally or do you leave it on the table. >> i don't intend to. >> let me ask whether you've seen enough to determine whether these are good conservatives. have you seen enough of donald trump's ideas on paper that make you think he'll be a good heritage conservative? >> i don't know that. i'm really not going to make a judgment. >> would you like to see more? >> he's talked about some of the things that need to be talked about. we know that a lot of people are listening to that saying i wouldn't have said that but i'm glad he said it. i think it just -- it's just -- he's -- he's touched the pulse, as has cruz and a few others who just believe that washington's broken and the candidates who addressed that then are getting a chance to talk to the american people. >> i have to say, if someone were to ask me, who do you think

jim demint would support, it would be ted cruz. you were one of the few senators that enjoyed working with him. most of the united states senate doesn't enjoy working with him you called him one of the strongest republicans in 2013. do you feel that way. >> rubio i know well, worked with him. so i -- i've got good friends in the race and some i've seen operate and stand on conservative principle. so i feel good about some of them in the race. i feel good about the way the debate is going. >> can you win a republican nomination today, though, with the imgmigration stances that governor bush and senator rubio and governor christie and governor kasich, do you think maybe they're not speaking to where the party is on immigration? >> well, i know did speaking for conservatives, we are for immigration, and legal immigration is important and that's why we think if in order

to honor heritage of immigration we need a system to control our borders and have worker identification. the problem is, is the fact that we have not enforced our laws. it has made this issue very divisive. people now are willing to say let's stop all immigration until we figure out what's happening. but speaking for heritage, myself, conservatives, we are for legal immigration, and a system that encourages enforcing the law. >> you can't be for legalizing anybody here illegally and be a heritage conservative? >> well, it doesn't make sense, it's not fair. when we start talking about immigration reform, the first thing you go to what about amnesty for everyone else? if we fix the system, control borders, then the solutions will become more apparent. >> let me ask you about the response to governor haley. were you surprised she got criticism? she was being criticized for not having a more confrontational tone. what was your take on that? >> she's a great governor.

she's shown bold leadership after the charleston tragedy and unity's very important to her. and i think what she's been through, being part of immigrant family that's come here and being an outcast, she's calling for unity and rightly so. i liked that position. i'm not sure what all of the criticism is about. >> you think it was unfair? >> i don't know. i think maybe people are hyper sensitive today about things. but we are for immigration, and i think anyone who is not for immigration, open to trade, they're not a real conservative, in my mind. and we need to do it the legal way. and the way to solve that problem is not blanket amnesty and let's start all over again. we've done that before. it doesn't work. >> senator jim demint, good to see you. coming up, is bernie sanders' rise in iowa more about hillary clinton faltering it? rand paul tries to carry on the libertarian legacy of his father but a conversation republican

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tonight, south carolina is the host of the big debate. it's one of the first sort of red states to host a republican debate in this cycle. the palmetto state isn't first. it's a sweet spot between iowa and new hampshire when it comes to republican electorates. iowa's republican caucus electorate generally very conservative, in 2012 47% called themselves very conservative. very high number for republican electorate. new hampshire's republican primary electorate, moderate. 47% called them moderate or liberal. and then there's south carolina,

which falls right in the middle. with the nearly even split of voters who call themselves very conservative and conservative, and then the moderate and liberal republican crowd, many who live in charleston. it's a goldly locks state, not too conservative and not to moderate for the conservative candidates. explains why lindsey graham wins there as well as jim demint. iowa goes one way, new hampshire goes the other and south carolina is the place where one winner can take control. the south carolina electorate is more evangelical than iowa or new hampshire. but south carolina more evangelical doesn't mean being more conservative. we'll get through that later on. much more "mtp daily" daily including the clinton's campaign's chief strategist coming up. about a biologic... this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my pain and protect my joints from further damage. this is humira giving me new perspective.

doctors have been prescribing humira for ten years. humira works for many adults. it targets and helps to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to ra symptoms. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened, as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. talk to your doctor and visit humira.com this is humira at work after days of taking bernie sanders to task on gun control and health care, it's clear clinton team is feeling the pressure, and with good reason.

the big lead is all but gone. latest des moines register poll shows clinton barely ahead of sanders, this comes with over two weeks to go before the caucuses. in this case, it isn't necessarily sanders' momentum cutting into clinton's lead. it's the former secretary of state herself who is losing some ground. 48% of iowa democrats backed clinton last month. that number is down to 42%. a drop of six points in one month. sanders' supporters up a single point from 39 to 40. caucusgoers aren't going from one candidate to another. they're becoming more undecided altogether. with the undecided vote increasing by five points than polling is almost exactly what our poll show the on sunday. clinton with a slim three-point lead over sanders in iowa. similar to what quinnipiac was report, they had sanders ahead but the movement was the same. and of course, all within the margin of error. while the fight has tight. ed up in iowa, month month has

sanders far ahead of clinton. they claim he's leading by 14 points. back in november, clinton head led sanders by seven points. it's clear, linwood lambe clint some right now. the way our friends at real clear politics calculate things clinton's national lead is falling faster than 2008, dropping significantly in the last several days. joining me now, from the clinton campaign, her chief strategist and chief pollster, joel beneson. >> thank you. >> i know you got off a conference call with reporters talking about sanders and a negative ad. i want to start with the polling here. three polls, for us in our business, that's a trend in iowa, what's happening? or do you not believe them? >> well, first of all, if you take the poll you just showed, "the des moines register" poll which a lot of people consider ex-len because ann selzer has

been doing it a long time, the december poll was an outlier. we told journalists, you might have been in the call october, november, both states were he going to be very close, they always are. and what happened in october and november was those leads were five and six points. so what you're seeing now is the race pretty much within range where it's been since october. december might have been of an outlier. we expected it close in both states. we've been through this before. i've been through it -- >> through it on the other side. >> on the other side 2007 and '08. look, one other point, chuck, about the poll, ann selzer said this, the trend in iowa the closer the election gets it gets more volatile, not more settled. we've got a lot of campaigning to do between now and caucus day. >> an interesting stat that reminded me a lot of the campaign you worked on eight years ago working against your client now, and that's the clinton-obama race. among certain caucusgoers,

hillary clinton, i believe, led by ten points. among possible caucusgoers, who didn't call themselves certain i think sanders led by double digits, that is the way it split up, if i recall, with clinton and obama at the time. 4 are you concerned you have a passion problem? >> no. look, the key in iowa is always to have an extensive ground game if as many precincts. the delegates are divided up by precincts. the currency is how many delegates you pile up. our folks in iowa on the ground feel confident about the ground game, how we've organized it. and i think that, as i just said, you can't ever take your foot off the gas in states like eye and new hampshire. they pride themselves on being the first states that go to caucus and primary. they are always fluid. they are rarely landslides. if you look at the history in iowa, i think only once in the

last 30, 40 years when a nonincumbent or former vice president was running it's a seven or eight-point margin. we have 18, 19 days to go, campaign hard every day and get our message out and then have the ground game work out for us on february 1st. >> as the back and forth between your campaign and sanders' campaign getting heated you held a conference call claiming bernie sanders broke a pledge about running negative ads. let me play the ad and ask you why you believe this is negative ad. here it is. >> break up the big banks, will they like me? no. will they begin to play by the rules of our president? you better believe it. >> at beginning of the ad he says, there are two democratic visions how to reform wall street. i take it that single phrase makes you claim that's a negative ad. if that's a negative ad, i have to say, it's polianish, no? >> i'm not going into the rest

of the sentence in front of the ad but it reflected an attack that senator sanders has been making on the stump since november and did against a week or ten days ago in new york and headlines reflected. when you talk about two leading candidates in the democratic field and you talk about two democratic visions, and you attack one of those visions, i think every journalist who is covering this race knows exactly who senator sanders was talking about, his campaign does, voters will, too the question is whether sanders will do anything about it or break the pledge he's made. the last time his campaign did this, he said they had to pull down the ad because it was in a gray area and he doesn't want any adds even in a gray area. it's up to him now -- we'll see what he does next -- as to whether he takes this down and sticks with the pledge he made. >> well, two days ago you went up with a gun ad and i would say the -- i'll read you a quote --

it's hillary clinton, to camera, time to pick a side, either we stand with the gun lobby or join the president and stand up with them. i'm with him. talk about the issue that you have been bringing up for months as a big difference with senator sanders, that is his vote to not allow gun -- allow gun manufacturers have production from liability lawsuits. isn't that a negative ad by your definition? >> we didn't refer to two visions or two conditions, we didn't refer to anything democrats haven't been fighting for. in fact the issue in the ad came front and center because of president obama's comments on this and whether he would support democrats who didn't stand up for comment sense gun laws and things like, you know, restoring immunity, having -- getting rid of the immunity privilege that the gun industry has had because of votes that were cast a few years back. a vote that the nra, by the way,

calledite most significant vote in 20 years. >> why is and to important, to the campaign to have this bernie sanders ad on wall street be called a negative ad? why is it important? >> i don't think it's important. look, we're at a point in the race, at a different phase with a few weeks to go, candidates are certainly in a fair lane to be questioning each other, holding them for what they've said. senator sanders said he wouldn't run aing in everybody ad. in july he told voters he would put out a plan how he's going to pay everything he's promising the american people in two, three weeks. now he's going to do it caucus day. you may not be old enough to remember, that sounds like nixon saying i've got a secret peace plan before the election. if you tell voters you have information, give it to them. >> was your campaign planning on not running negative ads, too,

in response to the senator sanders' pledge or no? >> we've been making a positive case on every issue. >> but you never were going to take a pledge? >> i don't think any campaign that i've been on has ever taken a pledge. you you have to engage a campaign based on what your opponents do. and i said at the outset of this interview, take a look and see what senator sanders does. he may pull this down tomorrow like he did the last time his aides ran a negative ad. >> joel beneson, thank you. >> good to be with you. >> let me bring in the panel. senior political reporter, perry bacon jr., ron fournier, kasie hunt, joining me from the democratic debate in chicago. perry -- sorry, in south carolina. i have no idea why chicago was on the mind. i know we're monitoring situations there. perry, what do you make of the clinton campaign wanting to make

such a big deal about this ad? >> it is so bizarre, like with the interview as well, campaigns are about differences. they're about negatives. chelsea clinton, a few days ago, used to be off the table in a lot of ways, was attacking sanders on health care. i get what joel's saying, maybe bernie slightly violated his campaign pledge. who expected a candidate or president to never criticize the candidate? hillary clinton criticizing every day. this is a bizarre -- i don't think voters are going to change their minds based on the idea that a candidate attacked a candidate. they expect that. >> i think we know what they are trying to done he's got credit over her. they'd like to erode that. anything they can do they think makes him sound like he's another politician. i get what they're trying to do. is this enough? >> given where the party is on wall street, attacking a wall street ad, given where she is on

authenticity, given what she's done distorting his record on health care and going negative on guns, you know, having hillary clinton's campaign now attacking him on authenticity and negative ads is like donald trump criticizing somebody's chromeover. it's preposterous. one thing he's right about, this is a fluid campaign until the very end. i'm hoping hillary clinton winning this but i'm beginning to wonder. that looked like panic to me. he's panicking. >> kasie, what do you make of it? what's funny, considering all of 0 the negative ads we're seeing in the republican side of the race, sort of laughable to us, you and i, with the race we're covering more often than the other side, this is a negative ad? i'll show you a negative ad. have you seen the rubio spot against christie? that's a negative ad! >> right. chuck, i've seen, you know, the ad war in south carolina's an undercovered story. i've seen the jeb bush super pac, marco rubio

anti-immigration ad four times in an hour, totally different tone. this feels like what happens in 2008 something starts to return against her and you -- the attitude changes. i have to say, chuck, the other piece of this that being down here with republicans and in south carolina, there are a lot of people quietly starting to wonder out loud if the democratic nomination process might not suddenly last longer than the republican one. of course that is partially because the republicans here are more more convinced that donald trump has a pretty easy, straightforward and potentially quick path to the republican nomination. >> wait a minute. you just said what? most republicans that you're talking to think it's getting easy and straightforward -- >> i did not say most. i said some. >> i hear you. >> to describe as an acceptance phase. no one else has potentially clear path. >> i think if you can make the case for trump, our poll right now shows you can make that same case for cruz considering that

when you give him the two-way choice they pick cruz over trump. >> but that number, that number in our poll that showed that increasing number of republican voters who see trump as an implausible now in the 60s as it was in the 20s, that's true of the establishment also. >> what's more plausible, donald trump wins more in iowa and new hampshire or bernie sanders. >> >> what's more implausible, i think cruz will win iowa looks like sanders could win both states what i'm seeing. >> more likely that hillary's upset than trump. >> it's amazing. >> the change in three weeks. >> freudian slip is showing we've been through this before. that's clinton strategist. we've been through this before. >> by the way, he was an obama strategist when we went through this before. i'll leave it at that. you'll come back. my colleague, rachel maddow, will sit down with hillary clinton tonight. see that interview later on

msnbc. 9:00 p.m. eastern. panel will be back later. we'll preview the debate itself. how nasty are things going to get tonight? one man who won't be on any stage, rand paul. i'll talk with his father, former presidential candidate and leader of the libertarian movement in the republican party, ron paul, you about the current lack of what appears to be libertarian activism in this race. we'll be right back. you can't breathed. through your nose. suddenly, you're a mouthbreather. well, just put on a breathe right strip which instantly opens your nose up to 38% more than cold medicine alone. shut your mouth and say goodnight mouthbreathers. breathe right

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tonight's republican debate in south carolina is going to be missing a loud libertarian voice. in fact, for the first time in three cycles we're not going to hear a libertarian voice. kentucky senator rand paul missed the cut for the main debate stage by the organizers. rather than participate in the undercard debate rand paul is boycotting, hosting an online national town hall.

earlier today, senator paul warned the republican party to be careful not to alienate libertarian voter splz it's unscientific and biased and does a lot towards instead of growing the republican party it looks like they want to shrink the republican party if they want to push the libertarian leaning voters out of the party. these voters can go other places. sometimes vote for third party candidates. >> both senator paul and his father, former congressman ron paul, prone opponents of libertarian deals, cutting spend, noninventionist foreign policy. the cycle it seems the message has been, if a word, trumped. joining me now, ron paul. congressman paul, good to see you. >> good to see you. thank you for having me on. >> let me ask you, what is going on with the libertarian movement? a lot of us thought your growth of support from '08-'12, your

son's election to the stewide office, what looked like was going to be a big presidential campaign year in '15, what's going on? the support doesn't seem to be there for him that was there for you in 2012. >> well, i don't think it a sign of anti-libertarian movement. i think it a sign that the reaction to the libertarian movement has been very strong and that is the people who are in charge of the republicans and the democrats, they sort of don't like to hear this message. this message, as i speak around the country, it's very, very popular. people want that lives to be their own. they don't want the government to run their lives in a personal way. they don't think the government's smart enough to run the economy. they don't believe in the federal reserve system that services the very wealthy. and they're sick sick and tired of the war. it's very, very popular. but like you say, it appears it's less popular but you know there's a lot of control on what happens just, for instance, rand getting into the debate tonight because they didn't include one polling. so there's a lot of control with

this whether to debate, how the polls are done. >> right. >> and how the -- how the reporting is done. so i'm not shocked or surprised. it happened to me. as a matter of fact the republican party changed the rules so none of my delegates would be counted. right now they're worried about the rule if it goes into place it might be held. to trump. there's a concerted effort and i quite frankly think the most important issue is libertarians tack a strong stand against needless war, going to war without declaration and i think there's a concerted effort by republican and democrats to always support the interventions overseas and that is abig issue for us. >> let me ask you, though, is it -- i've noticed in your son's campaign of late, and his messaging of late, that he's talking more libertarian, talking more to the libertarian crowd in a way that some of his supporters believe he wasn't doing enough of in summer '15,

try too hard to appeal to too many parts of the republican sbaert in that effort to be too inclusive of a campaign he lost his base. what do you say to that. >> well, i think he's addressing the base now because they're getting close to the first vote. it's been going on a long time and there's been no vote. but i think now this very important caucus, which i don't think the polls mean a whole lot because of the structure of the caucus. so, yes, he's rallying the base. and there may be -- well be some surprises. >> shouldn't he have done it sooner? >> well, that's -- that's a -- you know, a tactical process of the campaign. but it all depends what you listen to and how the reports are. i don't think his views have changed dramatically. i think maybe he's getting better reporting, sometimes negative reasons. some say he's not tough enough, you've got to be a wild hawk

irrational and drop bombs so, therefore, you know, sometimes they present your policies, not in a traditional noninterventionist foreign policy, which america used to be proud of. now that we have this whole bush formula of saying preemptive war, don't declare wars and just go to war though there's been no aggression. this is obscene. and yet we're not allowed to get that message out, very rarely, and i thank you for having me on tonight because i think it deserves to be heard. >> now there's some parts of your message, though, that i think donald trump's tried to co-op. some parts of your message that ted cruz's tried to co-op. do you believe that? are they -- are either one of them speaking to you enough you could envision supporting them? >> impossible. i think they're authoritarians. libertarian are not authoritarians. the principle, literally we sign

a pledge we will never support anything where you initiate violence against somebody else, nonaggression principle. and off and on they're all over the place, they don't have a basic principle. their approaches are different. but they are authoritarians, one way or another. so especially the foreign policy and when it comes to the drug war. how many are talking about the evils of the drug war and how we throw people in jail? rand was the only one that talked about that. but they decided think can't stand to have that in a debate and they put him aside. >> there's one republican running that you could support if they become the nominee and that's your son? >> ones that are in the races now, that is correct. the others are too engulfed in authoritarianism, which is the whole congress. but i don't look at that from my optimism because i tend to think that there is wonderful things happening because 20th century

buried, you know, the evils of of fascism and evils of come niche and the 20th century now in the process of burying interventionism and keynesianism and inflationism and federal programs. that is ending and that's what the markets are telling us. that's what we should be talking about. what kind of revolution area changes are coming. and this can only be corrected about a nonauthoritarian approach, one we were given, and then ignored in the last 100 years, the ideas the founders gave us many years ago. >> intriguing about the various candidates running for president. i believe of all of the conditions running, bernie sanders most often voted for some of your bills than anybody else running in this race, is that -- does that sound right to you? >> yeah, it could be because we did work together. people would say, why are you and bernie agreeing on this issue? but we would both attack

subsidies of the corporation. he's an outright authoritarian because on economic matters he'd be totally authoritarian for the redistribution of wealth and sock it to the rich. >> you may like sanders on foreign policy but you don't like him on domestic policy? >> yeah, he approaches it, he's not a noninterventionist but certainly a lot better than the other democrats. but as a matter of fact, you know, i'm not bashful in pointing out some of the things that obama did which is outrageous to the republicans. obama's done some things that libertarians like. talk to the cuban again. how many times did i say that in the campaign before people booed me? what about iran. i mocked relationships with iran and here we are. we had a possible crisis there because we're talking to them, it was settled in one day. not a whole year like it was when the ayatollah was in charge. u think there are great strides to emphasize benefits of

nonintervention in foreign policy. right now we're winning in the drug war, most states are nullifying federal laws. they're saying, to heck with you, those laws are stupid. i think libertarianisms making great progress in many ways but don't look to people in washington if a national debate especially if they regulate the debates to the point where the libertarian message is excluded. >> quickly, if your son's not in there, do you think the libertarian nominee, probably gary johnson, former new mexico governor who ran last time, will take enough votes to make it that much harder for a republican to win? >> i don't know. why would you think -- our message is two-thirds -- some say two-thirds liberal, one-third conservative. we agree with sanders or sanders agrees with us. so, no, if a libertarian does well, it will be civil liberties and foreign policy where they get their vote. it won't be republican votes. it not going to hurt the

republicans and besides, what will the laws tell you? who runs those debates? the republicans and democrats. if you can't get into the president debates how does the message get out? thank goodness for the inter-nate because we're able to get our message out. >> and thank goodness for cable television. >> i agree. >> thanks for coming on, sir. appreciate it. next, who, what, where, why, today's headlines including why meteorologists are tracking an atlantic hurricane in january. ibs-d. you know the symptoms when they start. abdominal pain. urgent diarrhea. now there's prescription xifaxan. xifaxan is a new ibs-d treatment that helps relieve your diarrhea and abdominal pain symptoms. and xifaxan works differently. it's a prescription antibiotic that acts mainly in the digestive tract. do not use xifaxan if you have a history of sensitivity to rifaximin,

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that's why i only choose nicorette mini. still to come on "mtp daily," ben carson's campaign suffers another big staffing loss and the stage is smaller. the impact on the race could be huge. the panel is back in charleston, south carolina, right after this. morning ted! scott! ready to hit some balls? sure. ooh! hey buddy, what's up? this is what it can be like to have shingles. oh, man. a painful, blistering rash. i keep thinking how did he get this, he's in such good shape. if you had chickenpox, the shingles virus is already inside you. 1 in 3 people will get shingles in their lifetime. your immune system weakens as you get older

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it's the leader of the free world weighing in on a sports argument. during a presidential twitter chat he said he thinks michael jordan was a better player than both kobe bryant and lebron james and he praised lsu freshman ben simmons. wikipedia says their page on george w. bush has the most edited info in their 15-year history. second place, the hlist of personal for world wrestling entertainment. okay. it's sunday, sunday night is debate night in america. nbc is hosting. the lineup is set. hillary clinton, bernie sanders, and martin o'malley will be on that south carolina stage. to the y. there's a hurricane in the atlantic ocean about five months before the official hurricane season begins. hurricane alex gets the a name because it's the first one in 2016. it's set to hit the azors as a category one in a few hours.

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we are at war, not just abroad, but here at home. with the clear and present threat of radical islamic terrorism, we must secure our borders, but washington continues to fail us with groups like the gang of eight that support amnesty and allow sanks wear cities. >> if you didn't guess, that wasn't a positive ad for marco rubio. that came from one of the super pacs supporting ted cruz. let's go to the lid. the panel is here. perry, ron and casey from south carolina. casey, let me start with you. obviously we expect a lot of fireworks. what are you hearing behind the scenes of the predicted fireworks so far? what do you think is the first thing we're going to hear about? >> well, chuck, i think first of all, ted cruz is pretty prepared to come right back at donald

trump on any birther-related things, although i would say if donald trump's past is any indication, he doesn't usually throw the first punch on these kind of things. i also would look for jeb bush to try out some new attacks on donald trump tonight. i think possibly down into the specifics, he's previewed some of this. my question is whether or not it's going to go better for him this time than when he tried to take it to marco rubio on the debate stage. >> perry, what are you expecting? >> i want to see rubio and christie. they've been aggressive in attacking one another. that will be a place where christie is a good public speaker so if you're taking on him that's going to be challenging to rubio who i think has been mediocre many times. >> there's so many ways to slice this. >> you got to go after the front-runner. he's going to walk away from this thing if everybody in the campaign doesn't realize he's the guy to beat. i'm stunned. >> do you realize how few negative ads -- we're talking about negative ads and there are

a lot against chris christie, marco rubio. only jeb bush is running against trump. >> in the debates do you rarely have everyone coming out hard against trump. i don't get it. >> he has cowed them, hasn't he? >> yes, he has. the reality is these attacks that trump has been leveling are devastatingly effective. he has a way of putting his finger on exactly whatever the issue is and exploiting it and the best way to get attacked that way is to go after him. i think cruz is learning that the hard way now. you say jeb bush is attacking him. he's absolutely doing it on the trail but he doesn't have very much of his own money on the air and they just came out this morning with an ad attacking trump. >> that ad was probably more of a press release ad but it could be effective. i'm curious to see how it goes. it's about disabilities. it hits trump for mocking the reporter who has a disability. i'm curious to see if they actually put money behind it if

that one could hit. >> it's a new message at least. this is a trump is mean to people with disabilities. bush usually is terrible at using that in debates. >> conventional wisdom is wrong. we're leading by double digits because they haven't gone after him. >> we'll be back tomorrow. >> previously on the debates. >> first of all, rand paul shouldn't even be on this stage. you know, you started off over here, jeb. you're moving over further and further. pretty soon you're going to be off the end. if you don't like it, i'm sorry. >> happy return of