reason they took it. >> pete williams at the supreme court on a beautiful night in washington. >> it is. >> thanks so much. >> you bet. that does it for this hour, i'm kate snow. "mtp daily" starts right now. >> if it's friday, it's turmoil on the 2016 trail. 17 days till iowa. reality seems to be setting in on the republican side that it may be a three-way race. meanwhile uncertainty is expanding for the democrats. it's a wild "mtp daily" and it starts right now. >> good friday evening and welcome to "mtp daily." just take a breath. wow, both races on both parties have suddenly gone wild. let's get right to tonight's take. tonight play well be the first time that you've looked at the 2016 race and said, oh, my goodness. both primary fights are anything

but certain, and we may have new vacuums that could get filled in the next few weeks. all that's missing is something like michael bloomberg is running that takes over the entire conversation, because he thinks somebody will split the two parties. we'll get into some of the drama, but we start with the republicans. all this week, the front-runners and folks nipping at their heels, have been at each other's throats and a lot of it came to a head on stage at last night's debate. >> you had your chance, marco, you blew it. >> not a lot of conservatives come out of manhattan. i'm just saying. >> unfortunately governor christie has endorsed many of the ideas that barack obama supports. >> he never had a chance. now he's doing better, he's got probably a 4 or 5% chance. >> out of the fray, trump emerged on top, consuming criticism and taking a victory lap. here he is today. >> did everybody see the debate?

[ cheers and applause ] >> i think so. yeah, we've been really treated nicely. and nikki, who is a very good person, she said there's an angry segment. and other than say, i'm not angry, i'm not -- i am angry. i am angry. >> so you have to ask this question. has trump already won part of the fight? our poll shows that trump has doubled his national lead from five points to 13. 2/3 of republican primary voters say they could see themselves supporting him. that's way up from the 23% in march. and in hypothetical match-ups, trump tops rubio, but trump loses to cruz if it went that way. in a three-way race, trump still leads, but look at how much of the vote goes to the outsider insurgent wing of the party, 71% when you add up trump and cruz. so trump may have fully brought the republican party to the different stages of grief.

first, shock and denial in which his competition didn't see him as a real candidate. >> donald trump is not a serious candidate. he's a narcissist, he's an ego maniac. then it was the next stage, pain and guilt. after sky high expectations, sc scott walker dropped out of the race early. >> i will suspend my campaign immediately. i encourage other republican presidential candidates to do the same so the voters can focus on a limited number of candidates who can offer a positive, conservative tearnt to the current front-runner. >> next, anger. look at how the once optimistic marco rubio's tone has changed. >> when i'm president, if we do not know who you are, or why you are coming, you are not going to get into the united states of america. >> and along with anger comes

bargaining. last night, the stand against trump's muslim ban was a whole lot softer. >> no. [ laughter and applause ] >> no. we have to stop with political correctness. >> i hope you reconsider this, because this policy is a policy that makes it impossible to build the coalition necessary to take out isis. >> and finally, there's the acceptance stage, and we may now be there. it sounds like trump believes he's already there. >> the establishment people, i don't know if this is good, this could be the curse, but establishment people are now calling us and saying, how do we get involved with the campaign? people who were saying terrible things like three months ago. >> well, look at some of these tweets from prominent conservatives in the last 12 hours. >> gop establishment mood on trump moving from fear and

loathing to resignation and rationalization. he'd run better than cruz and slam hillary. matt lewis said, on the ground everyone literally is getting resigned to trump as nominee. and former bush white house spokesman ari fleischer said trump was trump, and that means he had a good night. 60% shot of being the nominee. that's a way to call, i think, to define acceptance at this rate. none of this means that trump is going to win the nomination, but it means he's become much more acceptable to republicans than we ever thought possible. he's shaped the republican contest in his own image and he's in firm control of this republican race. and if you look, the alternative is ted cruz. and it's perhaps ted cruz wouldn't here without donald trump. at the debate, ted cruz doubled down on his comments that trump has new york values, but trump made that point himself one time on a certain program called "meet the press" in 1999. here was his response to the

idea of openly gay military personnel. >> it would not disturb me. again, i'd want to talk to lots of experts within the military, but it's not something that would disturb me. hey, i lived in new york city and manhattan all my life. so my views are a little bit different than if i lived in iowa, perhaps. and again, it may be a little bit of a new york background because there is some different attitude in different parts of the country and i was raised in new york and grew up and work and everything else in new york city. but i am strongly for choice and yet i hate the concept of abortion. >> so the argument is there. one could argue ted cruz didn't quite make that point last night. we'll see, does it stick with iowa voters. we have a slew of folks on the slow. joining me now, ken cuccinelli, he's here on behalf of the cruz campaign. welcome, sir. >> good to see you, chuck. >> let's start with last night

and let's go, when you hear the phrase new york values, i understand what donald trump said. can you explain what ted cruz is implying. >> social liberalism and a pushy version of it, and i think that's sort of an expectation in the political arena, that's what we understand. there's lots of other things that go with that like cheesecake and big sandwiches. >> fair enough. there was sort of a pretty big response, the new york daily news cover -- >> quite a cover. >> democrats, i get it, they want to score a political point or two, but you are alienating 20 million people as trump said. that's not a unifying spirit. >> it's a characterization that donald trump set himself up for on "meet the press," and it fits. amazingly enough, the one state he contrasted himself with, as we head into the next two weeks,

is iowa. >> why didn't ted cruz make that point last night? >> well, i think this may have started as a campaign inside joke. it was done very publicly, but he knew what he meant kind of a thing, but it wasn't explained. and here we are talking about it. donald trump has that history. ted cruz has a long consistent history in this area that contrasts very well, especially if you're campaigning in iowa. >> you know, the other striking back and forth last night happened late in the debate, many people might have missed it, between marco rubio and ted cruz. marco rubio this morning on the "today" show doubled down on this hit on ted cruz. here's what he said. >> ted cruz on multiple issues, has always changed his positions based on political calculation. he's changed on multiple things, on immigration very recently. he flipped his vote on crop insurance on the floor of the senate within five minutes because someone told him it would help him in iowa.

he did last week in iowa for the same reason on the issue of ethanol. he's campaigning as a consistent conservative, but what he's been consistent about is political calculation. it was fair to point that out, given that he had just launched tan attack at me. >> the fuel issue, immigration, cruz has put his finger in the wind, trying to see which way the wind is blowing. >> that's pretty tough on the fuel issue. ted co-sponsored a bill to immediately eliminate the renewable fuel standard, the big corn subsidy. that didn't succeed. the next year, after talking with some of the business interests who are saying, we can't go off a cliff like this, okay, then let's phase it out. >> you don't believe it's a flip? >> to go from -- >> from zero -- that's not -- [ all speak at once ] there was no presidential

calculation there? >> they're both getting rid of the big corn subsidy. he's the only candidate in the history of the united states who has led in iowa, who has opposed the big corn subsidy. he's the only one. and for people who care in all the other states about the terrible effect of all this crony government, if a candidate will go to iowa and tell them how bad big corn is for america and poor people everything else, why do you think they'll go to washington and fight all the other special interests? only ted cruz has done that. and donald trump has attacked him for it. >> about the only way this birther controversy becomes an issue is if a secretary of state or county clerk refuses to put ted cruz's name on the ballot? nobody has standing here until somebody -- >> no, no, no. >> who would have standing -- [ all speak at once ] >> they've all made a legal decision in the same willing circumstances. they did it in 2008 when they put john mccain on the ballot.

born of american parents on foreign soil. >> you feel that's the precedent? >> that's absolutely the precedent. the people who say it wasn't settled, there wasn't a supreme court case on it, that's true. everybody understood that he was a natural-born citizen and so is ted cruz. this is a distraction. donald trump even acknowledged back in september, and as he admitted on the stage, ted started going up in the polls, so now we've changed our mind. >> so you're not concerned about it? >> no. i'm a constitutional idealist. i wouldn't be on board if i thought there was a shadow of a doubt. >> thanks so much. rubio did share some post debate thoughts with the "today" show. here now are some parts that didn't air due to breaking news at the time. with iowa two weeks away, he says he's confident. >> in iowa, our support continues to grow.

i don't pay a lot of attention to polls, because in both these states, people make up their mind very late. we like our trajectory, the support we're gathering every day. we feel good about where we stand and as we continue to gain support here. iowa is more immediate and feel feel very good about our standing there. >> rubio thinks he rose above all the bickering at the debate, calling it a breakthrough night. >> you saw us break through last night. they were having a debate about who was born where, and we brought it back to what the campaign needs to be about, what happens next for america. 2016 is going to be a turning point for this country. we'll continue on the road we're on right now and our children will inherit a country in decline. or we'll embrace a new direction and our children will be the freest and most prosperous

americans that have ever lived. that's the argument we're making and we're gaining not just steadily, but enduring support and we feel very positive about that. >> perhaps rubio's strongest moment in the debate was very late with ted cruz on the issue of immigration. he talked about that some more on the "today" show, linking it to terrorism and isis. >> this issue has changed and the first thing we have to deal with is not the people that are here illegally in terms of figuring out what to do. the first thing is, how do we keep america safe, in light of the fact that we have a terrorist, jihadist group with a sophisticated understanding of our immigration system and is working to use it against us. whether it's our visa programs, our vulnerability on the southern border, or visa waiver countries, they understand our immigration system and are using it to infiltrate fighters. that has to be the focal point even before we deal with what do

you do with someone who's been here for 15 years in violation of our immigration law, but is otherwise a good person. >> the other figure receiving attention is jeb bush. he got wall-to-wall coverage for an endorsement by a former candidate. former candidate lindsey graham. is reality starting to set in among some bush loyalists? david diaz, campaign manager for jeb bush. welcome, sir. >> thanks for having me. >> i got to start with, how did we get here? you saw the poll numbers. he went from being acceptable by 75% of the party back when he announced, and we're down to 42%. he was the top pick in june with 22%, down to 5%. are you going to be able to go back up again and how? >> when he announced in miami, he was clear that he must earn the nomination, and we're going

out and doing that, working hard every single day in the early states. what we're seeing now, post january 1, is a high level of seriousness among the electorate about who is the most prepared person to be president. the governor reflected that last night. we see it anecdotally, with our crowd size, with the research that we've done, that the environment here, and the electorate's being conditioned, as we get later and later to support someone who can do the job, who's ready to do the job. >> last night it felt as if there were three front-runners, two guys nipping at their heels, and then there was everybody else. but jeb bush looked like a guy nipping at the heels. he didn't seem like a front-runner. cruz and trump, rubio and cruz. this the debate moderator's fault? >> i disagree. i thought he had one of the most memorable lines with respect to hillary clinton. while this food fight over birtherism was taking place with cruz and trump.

he was speaking on issues rebuilding the military, defeating isis. i thought we had a great debate. very excited to announce today that lindsey graham is endorsing us. >> i take it, this means, we've walked through this, you got to eventually win. if you're going to be the nominee. no one's expecting you to win iowa. doesn't look good in new hampshire. what do you have to do in those places to win south carolina and take advantage of the lindsey graham organization? because to your credit, you've gotten more south carolina endorsements than anybody else since lindsay dropped out. >> you compete to win everywhere. that's the nature of campaigns. you don't play for something other than first place. and so from our perspective, we're competing to win in the first four states. we have a great organization in each of these states. we're doing very well in new

hampshire, there's a healthy competition today for second place. we have the best ground operation, in south carolina, we're very happy to have senator graham's support. we have a great veterans coalition, a lot of grassroots support on the ground there. a great state for a conservative, southern governor who has a long and broad record of reform. >> are we headed to south carolina becoming the next be all, end all? >> it's played that role in the past. it could again. >> we have just weeks between iowa and new hampshire. >> and after south carolina, just a few days later, nevada. we have a great team there. the turn-out numbers for the caucuses aren't typically that high. so from our perspective, we feel like there's growing, cautious optimism, that we are moving in the right direction with respect to what we need to do, and obviously we feel like we have the resources to play very late in the game, particularly past

march 1, march 15, when you move to winner take all, in states like ohio and florida, where jeb has done pretty well. >> got to leave it there. going to be a long campaign. but every day is a week and every week is a day. >> you got it. >> thank you, sir. we'll be back with much more after this, including the democratic side of things, why hillary clinton's sure thing is suddenly not so sure anymore. stay tuned. alright, kelly and promise me that you'll try that taco place on south street. and we have portfolio planning tools to help you manage your ira. yeah, you're old 401k give me your phone. the rollover consultants give you step-by-step help. no set-up fees. use your potion. sorry, not you. my pleasure. goodnight, tim. for all the confidence you need. who's tim? td ameritrade. you got this.

this week, international human rights attorney amal clooney has been lobbying congress for sanctions on the maldives. she's trying to draw global attention to political prisoners in this pacific island country in the indian ocean. she represents the former president, the maldives first democratically elected leader who is now behind bars after a coup. i sat down with here and here's a preview. >> u.s. values are at stake.

we just heard the president's state of the union address and he said american leadership in the 21st century means rallyying the world around causes that are right, an example, supporting ukraine's right for democracy. and the maldives' democracy is under threat at the moment. >> and amal clooney, you can catch the full interview this sunday on "meet the press." hillary clinton, bernie sanders, marco rubio and jeb bush. much more straight ahead. is hu. this is humira helping to relieve my pain and protect my joints from further damage. this is humira helping me reach for more. doctors have been prescribing humira for more than 10 years. humira works for many adults. it targets and helps to block a specific

source of inflammation that contrubutes to ra symptoms. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened, as have blood, liver and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. talk to your doctor and visit humira.com this is humira at work. this week has shown us that hillary clinton's team is searching for the right punch to land on pern bernie sanders. seven days later we see at least four different lines of attack against sanders. the clinton campaign is throwing a lot of things against the wall, frankly to see what sticks.

maybe because they never thought they'd be in this position in the first place. continuously they've done after sanders on guns. also the question of electability. they also aggressively chided sanders for what they call an attack ad that never mentioned clinton by name. and they've repeatedly gone after him on health care, painting him as an extreme candidate who wants to throw obamacare out the window. here's clinton herself twice in msnbc in just the last 24 hours talking about exactly that issue. >> are your attacks unfounded? >> well, no, they're absolutely founded. and what we can discern about what he would do, basically what he's doing is saying, hey, we need to start all over again, let's tear it up and replace it, details to be forth coming. >> it would basically end all the kinds of health care we know. medicare, medicaid, the chip program, children's health insurance, tricare, for the

national guard, military, employer-based policies. >> is she making sanders case for him? from that long list of health care systems, that the government supports, it starts to seem like it. anyway, with sanders beating clinton in new hampshire and clinton barely holding on to a lead in iowa, the clinton camp is right to be concerned. most people don't think it's possible, but at this point, a lot of people didn't think it's possible bernie sanders would be where he's at right now, and it makes this sunday's democratic debate on nbc news all the more important. joining me now is washington post reporter and msnbc contributor robert costa. and from south carolina, jamie harrison, and matt moore chairman of the state's republican party. robert, let me start with you. what is the state of the

democratic establishment? >> i think there's a lot of angst. there's a sense that secretary clinton has the rank and file activists that go back decades with her, but sanders has the enthusia enthusiasm. just like in the republican party, they're not sure how to close it. same concern in the democratic -- how do they get the sanders voters to give up the sanders campaign? >> a lot of people think south carolina is this great fire wall for hillary clinton. is that correct? >> listen, chuck, it's gonna be tough for senator sanders here in south carolina. for months now i've been seeing he has to do a two-step process in order to be victorious. he has to increases in name i.d. in the african american community. after that, he then has to convince those voters that he's the best person to champion their issues and champion their causes. and that's a lot to do in, what,

four, five weeks now? i'm just not sure that senator sanders can pull that off. in order to do that, he's going to have to get some other folks, dr. wes is great, but dr. wes is also -- >> talking about cornell west? >> exactly. dr. cornell west. so he's going to have to get other prominent african americans on board in order to make that case. you have to think about it. here in south carolina, 56% of the vote in 2008 was african american. and most of that was african american women. does bernie sanders look like the candidate that will appeal to african american women? he's going to have to figure out how to make that case. he has to go to churches, he has to go to the beauty shops. and i'm not sure if that will happen. but senator sanders is a fighter. so we'll see. >> matt, look, i'm not gonna make you handicap the democratic race just in the same way i'm not going to make jamie handicap the republican race. >> oh, i could do it. >> i'm sure you could, and you

both would relish it. but i want you to stay in your lane on this. chairman moore, i guess i want to ask is the south carolina republican party prepared for a nasty, knockdown, drag-out fight for the soul of the republican party that appears to be on the horizon? i feel like it's a category five party fight that's headed to south carolina, that could be 2000 all over again. >> look, we're fighting to not just lead the party, but to lead the nation. hillary clinton is an extraordinarily weak front-runner, with universal name i.d. she's struggling here just like she is in iowa and new hampshire. so for all of jamie's spin, i see bernie sanders' staffers across the state working hard. i believe they have six offices in this state. she's got a lot of work to do. if she does not win south carolina after losing iowa and new hampshire, she is in big trouble. >> i wasn't asking you about the democratic race, chairman. i was asking you whether the south carolina republican party was prepared for a rematch of

2000 in butcsh/mccain. >> we're competing for the future of the country. let the best candidate win. we'll get out of the way and let the candidates debate the ideas. the democratic party establishment has coordinated hillary clinton and we're having a great discussion on our side, record ratings, i suspect the next democratic debate will be on super bowl night. you never know with the democrats. [ all speak at once ] >> for what it's worth, nbc news is using a sunday night, probably the most popular night to watch television. let me ask you both this, both chairmen. will you explain to us why you can't hold a primary on the same day. i'll start with you, why can't you hold a primary on the same day? >> chuck, matt and i worked together to get the state on bipartisan legislation, to get the state to pick up these

primaries. now the question is, how do we get the rnc and the dnc in the same room to move the primary and allow us to be third along with our republican friends? >> so what you're saying then, this is a dnc issue, not necessarily an rnc issue, fair? >> we tried. it's just a quirk of state law. we tried in south carolina. bottom line, you can choose one primary or the other, but not both. it's preferable to have them both on the same day, but we'll set records in south carolina on our side regardless. >> and you guys would probably have higher turn-out and probably both see more money in the state. chairman moore and harrison, thank you both. before i let you go, republican side of this race, is it a three-person race? a two-person race? what's going on here? >> it's a two-person race. after the debate, trump and cruz

at the top. but i'm curious about south carolina. is this the south carolina that george w. bush won in 2000, or the south carolina that newt gingrich won as a media brawler in 2012? i think it's more of the latter. >> or is it the south carolina of lindsey graham? still ahead, the birther issue continues to fuel the front-runners' feud. we'll get the latest on ted cruz on the trail after the break. if you're looking to save money on your medicare part d prescriptions, walgreens says, carpe med diem. seize the day to get more out of life and medicare part d. just switch to walgreens for savings that'll be the highlight of your day. now preview the cost of your copay before you fill. you can even get one-dollar copays on select plans. you can't breathed. through your nose. suddenly, you're a mouthbreather. well, just put on a breathe right strip which instantly

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december month, ending the year up just 2.1%. that was the weakest result since 2009. lower gas prices are helping consumer sentiment, which rose to its best level since june. and a sell-off of oil, crude closed below $30 a barrel for the first time in 12 years. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. ♪ why fit in when you were born to stand out. the 2016 nissan altima has arrived. ♪

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(crow cawing) it had no heart, but it was alive. (train wheels on tracks) it had no mouth, but it spoke to me. it said, "rocky mountaineer: all aboard amazing". in september, my friend donald said that he had his lawyers look at this from every which way, and there was no issue there. there was nothing to this birther issue. now since september, the constitution hasn't changed. [ laughter and applause ] but the poll numbers have. >> that's ted cruz at the debate, hitting back pretty hard

at donald trump's birther claims. that was probably among his better moments last night. meanwhile, today, a houston lawyer filed a complaint in federal court asking for a judgment on ted cruz's ability to serve as president. the case is not likely to go anywhere. but the issue, at least as a political ploy, doesn't seem to be going away. let's check in with hallie jackson, from south carolina. let's get right to the news. i understand you just ran into cruz and he's got something to say about new york values. >> reporter: he sure did, chuck. he was doing an event here in columbia, and we caught him heading out the back door. i asked him, new york leaders have called on you to apologize. here's what he said. i want to read it to you. he said, you're right, donald trump, hillary clinton, bill de blasio, have all demanded an apology and he said, i'm happy to apologize, but here's what he said, i apologize to the

millions of new yorkers who have been let down by liberals in that state. i apologize for the hard-working women who have been denied jobs because the governor won't allow fracking. and he ended, we've been talking about this 9/11 comment donald trump made during the debate. he said i apologize to all the cops and firefighters and 9/11 heroes who had no choice but to turn their backs on mayor de blasio who stands with the looters and criminals rather than the brave men and women of the law. that's how ted cruz is responding to a story we've been talking about all day. pretty interesting response. >> well, hallie, you know what you've done, you've set up the panel very, very well. thank you, hallie. we'll see you on "nightly news." >> thanks, chuck. >> let's turn to tonight's panel. the fix yit man himself, chris saliza, and sarah fagan and fred

yang who is the democratic half of our nbc news/"wall street journal" polling team. welcome all. you're the republican here. ted cruz's -- >> that was good. that's a sign of a candidate on the ascent. somebody who is confident, who doesn't back down. he owns it. i thought he handled that as well as he possibly could have handled it, given "the new york times" post reaction and other reactions from his comments yesterday. >> you're a bush supporter and here you are praising cruz. >> i don't think he's the best nominee, but i thought he handled that well. >> i want to go to our poll because i thought the most remarkable aspect of it, we tried these two-way races trying to get a sense of outsider insurgent, how big is that, can the establishment win? i'm coming to the conclusion that maybe the establishment can't win. the best rubio could do in a

two-way was 45%. that's got to be nerve racking. is the establishment no longer 50% of the party? >> we asked republican primary voters their ideology, no surprise, majority say they're conservative. the only candidate out there we tested that comes even close to them is ted cruz. so he may be not the establishment, but he's much closer to the hearts and minds of the republican primary voters than anybody else right now. >> chris, this has been, it was what matthew continetti wrote a couple weeks ago, he said political parties aren't defined by their leaders, they're defined by the people who identify themselves. ted cruz is the establishment of what the party is, not what the leaders think it is, perhaps. >> so, i agree. i think what you always see at some level is a little bit of a disconnect between a party establishment, the elected officials, the leaders, and the major donors in that group. and then the base.

we saw it with president obama. they were annoyed with president obama because he didn't close gitmo on day one. there's a further distance between the establishment and the republican base than i've seen in my time. they're not even within throwing a football distance of one another. >> what do you make of it? >> i think that's right. but it's not on issues. >> no. it's all tonal. >> it's tonal and rhetoric and anger. >> and nikki haley's split, she was a tea party supposed governor. >> she is a tea party and many who work for her have been foundational in the tea party rise. so i do think that the base and the establishment will come together. whether that's cruz, trump, or in my view, rubio, jeb bush, chris christie. i don't believe this party will -- >> we've had our differences in

the democratic party, just nice to sit back and watch when the issues really aren't issues. it's not logic. it's emotion. >> when was the last time we've seen somebody's image change as quickly as donald trump's has changed? >> this was a guy that was considered unelectable in the republican electorate just eight months ago and now 2/3 say they could -- >> to go back to your previous segment -- >> who's done this? >> jeb bush. >> before this year -- >> some of this is expectations, this is what, in terms of a voter's expectations are who's going to win, or who is winning, and that does fuel it. >> and donald trump as he was then, which was the guy you saw on tv, and in eight months, he's become donald trump, a fairly decent candidate. >> this isn't someone who was not known in this light. this is someone who is basically 100% known in march 2015 when

23% of the republicans said they could vote for him. now he's still 100% known and 65%, that to me is the most amazing thing. you can go from 2% -- when 100% of people know who you are, i literally have no idea how he did it. >> it is something that we've not seen maybe in modern times. up next, the who, what, when, where and why in today's headlines. it's a fun one today, including when you catch one of the most historical super bowl broadcasts of all time -- the first one. stay tuned. right now, buy one pair and get another free. quality eyewear for doers. sears optical in my business i cbailing me out my i.all the time... i'm not the i.t. guy. i'm the desktop support tech supervisor. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive. introducing real-time delivery notifications.

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two nights from now the three democratic candidates take the debate stage in south carolina and nbc news is host get debate. joining me now live from the debate site is andrea mitchell. she will be joining lester holt in the questioning. and while, andrea, we've suddenly got a very meaningful debate here, it's the last debate before iowa, let me ask you this. you followed and covered hillary clinton as long as any of us here. she is suddenly on a media tour like we haven't seen. what do you make of it? she's done this before and it's always when things are getting nervous. >> i think they are very

nervous. certainly a lot of her supporters are very concerned that she is now potentially going to lose iowa. again a position she did not expect to be in, because of the insurgency, the large support that bernie sanders is finding among millennials and among women. it has been a surprising race where he has really shown that he's tapping into the same anti-establishment anger that in fact donald trump is tapping into on the republican side. it's not rooted in the same kind of issues, but it certainly is the same kind of anger. >> it does seem like she also wants to frame the debate. do you expect a pretty fireworky debate between the two of them? >> the last week she has been going after him on guns, on health care, on electability even though our own poll shows he would do better than she against trump and the other republicans in a general election hypothetical matchup. she is poised to win iowa and of

course this can change. he is expected to win new hampshire next door to his home state of vermont. and then he's got strength in nevada with union support, another caucus state. that's the third on the democratic side. the great irony would be if south carolina and the south become the firewall for hillary clinton. who would have thought that. >> who would have thought it. andrea, thank you very much. let me bring back the panel. how about that, that south carolina, which ended her nomination the last time, even though it ended up extending it, but when you go back that was the turning point. it could be the state that bails her out of this. >> and i think andrea was referencing the poll. >> yeah, there's some numbers that are coming out and she's alluding to some numbers we haven't shed. >> it could be day -- deja vu on the democratic side. >> is she too big to fail? >> i've thought of her like a giant ship, not like the titanic, but a giant ship that's

slow to undturn. it takes 20 minutes to turn it. sanders can turn more quickly. it takes more time to turn and once breached, it can go down relatively quickly. i think that's the danger, chuck. a big campaign is great but we've seen this with jeb bush. the weight of it can totally trap you underneath it as well. >> but you can get out of this. sara, 2000, bush. there was a moment that looked like the ship the sunk. >> yes. >> that day after new hampshire people were going when is karl rove getting fired and what's going to happen. >> sure. >> and then, you know, there is life after iowa and new hampshire if there's a disaster. >> but it's a big difference between that scenario and this one is if she loses both new hampshire and iowa, to me, you know, south carolina is more conservative. you pointed out they have a larger african-american share of the vote. momentum matters in this contest, and for her to lose two contests and be expected to lose the fourth, i don't know how she

wins the third. you would know better than i, but that seems very difficult. >> fred, should democrats, should the clinton supporters be so confident that somehow bernie sanders -- jamie harrison just basically dismissed the idea bernie sanders could get any support in the african-american community. things change when he's at 100% name i.d. >> i think as sara alluded to, every campaign has an uh-oh moment. i think that you cannot say right now that if that happens he cannot gain support if he has momentum. i think it's too topsy-turvy right now. >> you get the sense that democratic voters really do wonder if she's too close to wall street, base voters, that they really would rather have single payer health care. this is something that they were mad at president obama about. >> when he abandoned the public option. >> so when you have a candidate that's gaining momentum who's saying the things that you

really think, african-american voters are not that different on terms of issues than the rest of the primary voters in the democratic party. >> but she has a lot of strong pieces, african-american voters, women, since paris and san bernardino -- >> security. >> security effectiveness, experience argument. >> fred is exactly right about all of those things but i just feel like if past is prologue, right, momentum, it's all of those things. it's like, yeah, my team has a good defense and we're reliable free throw shooters except when the other team is on a run and you can't stop it. the idea that suddenly the first two states bernie sanders beats the giant favorite, an avoid socialist who told you, yes, i believe in socialism, he beats her and then everybody in the democratic party is like oh, that's no big deal. there's no evidence of that happening. >> when you win one game, it's a fluke. when you're in the sweet 16 they're suddenly going maybe george mason can play in the

final four. >> i think that's the big deal. >> fair enough. thank you all. nbc will have live coverage of the democratic debate sunday night at 9:00 p.m. we'll be back monday on mtp daily. "with all due respect" starts this instant. >> i'm john heilemann. >> and i'm mark halperin. with all due respect to donald trump, nobody knows new york values like we do. >> tgif from rural america. we've got tad devine and tavis smiley on the program tonight but let's debate the debate. last night's republicans winners an losers. who's up, who's down, who's hot and of course who's not. first let's quickly replay the trump-cruz fireworks over the two key issues to voters