that there isn't even polling on her for the last year. so there's some -- >> trust me, i've had people asking me about the polling on palin, and i was like, we kind of stopped. >> you will be sticking around, but i have to pause, because we have the whole top of the hour business to do. that technically does it to "mtp daily," but we're sticking around and going into overtime. charles, jonathan, everybody gets to stick around. let's take a quick break, you can hear a little elton john in my ear. we'll let you reset. all right. let's reset now. ♪ all right. now we will reset. we have now moved from the 5:00 to the 6:00. it's technical jargon, but that clock does keep moving. for those of us just joining us, sarah palin about to officially endorse donald trump, a rally in ames, iowa, comes at a critical moment, two weeks before the

caucuses, and ted cruz and trump are locked in a tough battle for that state and sarah palin is choosing sides. ted cruz reacted to the buzz about the endorsement earlier today. >> listen, i love sarah palin. sarah palin is fantastic. without her friendship and support, i wouldn't be in the senate today. so regardless of what sarah decides to do in 2016, i will always remain a big, big fan of sarah palin's. >> all right. we are at 6:00. let me go to katy tur very quickly, live at the trump rally, where elton john apparently is blaring, that's what i'm hearing in my ear. >> reporter: yeah, that is what you're hearing. this is a standard ballad for donald trump rallies. palin and trump are expected to take the stage, as you keep saying, at 6:00, but they are as of now running a tiny bit late. but that's pretty normal for the trump campaign. he hasn't been starting things too on time lately. the question is if this is going to move the needle in iowa. as you know, he and ted cruz are locked in a battle right now for this state. they're running neck and neck.

ted cruz winning right now with likely caucusgoers. donald trump trying to turn out people who may not have caucused before in the past, we spoke to a number of people in this crowd about what they think of a sarah palin endorsement, and many of them said, what they like about sarah palin is exactly the same things they like about donald trump. she's a straight talker, she has tough talk, she says what she means, that she's been in politics a long time. donald trump hasn't, but she has. so they trust her. she's got a track record. and they believe that if she's going to come out and endorse donald trump, then they feel like they're on the right track for liking him as well. there were others, though, who said that she's passed her political prime. she's been out there a long time, she's had a lot of ups and downs, she was certainly a star during the 2008 campaign, during that convention speech that wowed her republican base and terrified the democrats. but since then, she's certainly had a lot of ups and downs, but she has maintained a pretty solid base of support among

hardline conservatives and that is who donald trump and the campaign hope they will be able to bring out here in iowa. people who are on the fence, don't necessarily know who they want to vote for, or maybe that they want to vote for donald trump, but don't really feel like it's going to matter. well, sarah palin could excite them enough to get out of the what we are always calling a cold winter night in february, to go out and to the confusing process of caucusing for donald trump. so, whether this moves the needle, we'll have to wait and see, but the campaign is certainly banking on it, at least here in iowa. nationally, i'm not sure that palin's going to have the same sort of impact. >> well, this campaign is one about winning one news cycle at a time. katy tur, we'll let you go. i know you've got a little "nightly news" business to do. and jonathan, let me bring in -- look, star power, when the whole point of the last two weeks of the campaign is about building big crowds, so you can find new volunteers and find people to go to the polls and find people to show up for the caucuses, star

power is a pretty good thing to have. >> definitely. but, remember, it has to translate into something, as you just mentioned. so i remember being with obama in the last days before the iowa caucuses, and at the end of his rallies, where there was a lot of star power, he would bring on his organizers. he would bring them all on to the stage, and he would show the audience, this is how well prepared we are. working night and day to bring people to these caucuses. i don't get the sense that donald trump has that kind of organization right now in iowa. that doesn't mean he's not going to do very, very well, but it's a little hard for me to see right now what his path is to actually winning the iowa caucuses. >> charles, your advice to cruz was to go after him as not being a real conservative. this is what jeb bush tried. this is what marco rubio -- a lot of people that have taken -- i think rick perry tried it. bobby jindal tried it. that hit hasn't stuck yet. >> right. >> why will ted cruz make it stick? why do you think he could? >> i think the way he could do

it is to start building on some of the noises we've been hearing out of talk radio in the last few days. mark levin -- >> it does seem like -- >> -- started to say -- >> sarah palin might have picked trump, but those guys are saying, if you're going to do this, we may go cruz. >> right. especially if you look today on ethanol. now, i understand that's a big win for trump, in some ways, in iowa, but it's also damaging to his reputation. again, as somebody who's supposed to be conservative. and cruz can once again stand up and say, look, i've been solid on this for the last couple of years and donald trump hasn't. so he would have to do it that way. it doesn't quite work when it comes from jeb bush, because people don't think that jeb bush is a conservative, and it doesn't work when it comes to marco rubio, because he's so work on immigration. >> but iowans are hypocrites on ethanol -- >> i hear you -- >> but not all -- >> -- with all due respect to the three of you here, and i use that phrase on purpose, i'm joined by the two gentleman who are normally in this hour, but they're about to hop on a plane to more presidential campaign

coverage. let me go to the -- our friends over at bloomberg politics, and of course, co-hosts of "with all due respect," mark halperin and john heilemann. gentleman, it's certainly a win in the news cycle for trump, but how much -- is this a better day for trump or just a worse day for ted cruz? >> chuck, i think it's a good day for him. because as you said, you know, with this many days left, if you can dominate a day and palin will dominate more than a day, if you can turn out the people already supporting you, get them to focus on when the caucuses are, if they deploy palin that way, and if you can reach the undecideds, it's a good thing. and the final thing i'll say it's good for trump, they're in a psychological war, and ted cruz and sarah palin are quite close. this is not just a political blow to ted cruz, but a psychological blow, as much as he might try to slough it off. >> chuck, i think it's a better day for sarah palin than it is for donald trump, but i think it's a really, really bad day for ted cruz for the reasons mark just explained. i'm not sure how much power

sarah palin has now to move many votes. i'm not sure how many voters that would not have already been in trump's camp she will actually draw to him, but there's no doubt she'll get a lot of attention both tonight and probably in a number of nights between now and when the caucuses actually happen. and every one of those nights is as bad for ted cruz in what is going to be a very close race in iowa and probably beyond. >> you know, the three of us love to sort of like find -- well, who could this benefit that nobody's talking about right now. and it seems to me that the trump/cruz showdown, all of this high-profile fight, isn't this a great day for whoever is the third place candidate in new hampshire, if we're assuming cruz/trump are one, two. >> if they're close enough to be part of the story. i think third in new hampshire now is critical, or second, depending on where cruz finishes. but the question is, no one has ever gone after trump, as cruz is now, with ballast and poll

standing. the question to me is, does the two of them fighting, does it take trump down? does it do what happened between dick gephardt and howard dean in 2004, does it take them down and allow someone to sneak up? my guess is no one will benefit for this, because almost no one who are for trump or cruz will see them fighting and switch to any of the four establishment guys. as long as this fight makes them both look like day titans, i'm not sure it hurts them. >> john, very quick. marco rubio is on the air hitting cruz. >> i think -- all the establishment candidates if these guys just fly at the sun. >> so could the real loser then be cruz right now, because he's taking incoming from rubio. he's taking incoming from the establishment, and now he's -- and terry branstad, and now he's taking incoming from trump. does he get squeezed here? >> like i said, i don't think it's great news for ted cruz, what's happened today. but, again, if cruz and trump end up winning h ning iowa and d

up coming up one and two in new hampshire, i don't know how anyone else is getting attention if all we're focused on is the trump/cruz attack. >> cruz is sitting on some endorsements, not as high-profile for the establishment as sarah palin, but people who will get a lot of attention among religious conservatives in iowa and south carolina, and when he puts those out, he can argue, the shiny object is palin, but the ones who are influential are the ones -- >> john also wants to jump in. >> -- a poll earlier in your broadcast, that showed john kasich tied for second with ted cruz in new hampshire. if we might look back on this week and say, you know what, the big news was not sarah palin, it was that there was movement for john kasich. it might be that that poll doesn't hold pup. >> right. >> but if it were to hold up, there's plenty of time for kasich and one of the others to

emerge and finish second in new hampshire. if one of those establishment figures finishes second in new hampshire, they're going to go out with rocket fuel. >> you guys were talking about -- mark, you hinted a to the fact that you thought -- you said, look, ted cruz and sarah palin were close. they weren't just sort of publicly political allies, that there was a closeness there. i'm curious what your takeaway was on the bristol palin facebook post today? what does that tell us about -- was there something behind the scenes here that went poorly for cruz and palin that we don't know about? >> i don't know the answer to that. you did see rick tyler, one of ted cruz's spokespeople today being very tough on palin for endorsing trump and saying that she was making a bad judgment that would reflect badly on her. the palin family, as we all know, is a pretty fiercely loyal clan. and it's going to be interesting to see cruz himself after rick tyler said what he said, his spokesman, cruz himself on twitter tried to de-escalate this. my guess is cruz doesn't want to fight with the palin family and probably wants to turn the page on this. there's just no good -- there's

nothing good about this for him. there's no way to spin it. and i think fighting with palin risks alienating people in the conservative media, who in the last few days have been more partial towards him, than they have been for trump, because of some of the nature of some of trump's attacks on senator cruz. >> john, talk radio, are they about to pick sides and go cruz over trump? >> i think some of them have. >> the most interesting thing that came out of our show today was kelly ann conway, who runs one of the leading cruz super pacs, basically telegraphing that her group is going to go hard negative soon against donald trump on the air. and they've done a little bit of that work in the last couple of days, but it was pretty clear from what she was saying to us is that they're ready to go in what she calls contrast in a very sharp way against trump, and that will be the first time anybody with real throw weight, financial throw weight, and really standing in the polls has done that. cruz may want to put this palin thing behind him, but it looks like cruz and the cruz forces are now gearing up, not just to

end the detente with trump, but to really engage in all-out warfare. >> let me jump to new hampshire very quick. you guys will stick around within i know you have to catch a plane, but halley jackson is in new hampshire. she, of course, is on the ground there. so halley, how's it playing there? >> reporter: you know, i spoke with a couple of folks who were here at this diner up in sort of north country, new hampshire. one of the guys is undecided. he's deciding between donald trump and ted cruz. he saw donald trump speak yesterday and saw ted cruz speak today. i asked him about the palin endorsement and if it would sway him and he's a lifelong new hampshire independent and he said, absolutely not. sarah palin is not going to play for folks like him. his name was bruce. guys like bruce aren't going to be swayed by the palin endorsement, necessarily. but that's also not who donald trump is trying to get at when he brings sarah palin on to the stage here in the next couple of minutes, chuck. >> and that goes to jonathan alter's point. an iowa endorsement is a much deferent than a new hampshire endorsement. mark and john, let me go back to you guys.

because we were having a conversation here, particularly led by charles cook, who was say welcome you know, cruz should basically go after trump and palin for just not being true conservatives. it's an argument that multiple candidates have made. you guys make the point that when they've made that argument, they've been low in the poll standing and haven't had the heft of cruz. but that conservative argument hasn't worked before. while will it work now if that is, indeed, how cruz goes after him? >> it's not clear at all to me that it will work, chuck. part of the reason why it's not clear to me that it will work is that trump's constituency, trump's appeal is not among just the far right. trump has this very, as we've seen in all the polling, has a pretty ideologically diverse set of supporters. so it's not like, in some ways, trump is his own lane. there are voters that are not available to trump, that cruz already has locked up. and there's a bunch of voters that support cruz for whom those kind of arguments mean nothing, because they're not dock tri nated conservatives to begin with. >> there's a couple of other

reasons that might work. one is his poll standings, one is the fact that he's got resources, both the cruz campaign and the cruz super pac have husbanded their resources. and they now have substantial money. no candidates have put money behind trump. they've done web videos, but not serious videos. some of the other candidates, if i can project a little bit and play psychiatrist a little bit, i think some of the others have been afraid and flinched when trump struck them. i never saw cruz flinch all that much, even when trump comes at him hard. and the last thing is, you look at trump's negative frame on cruz right now, what he's largely settled on is, he's got a bad personality. i'm not sure that with conservatives, that's going to matter, because most conservatives look at cruz's quote/unquote bad personality and they say, he's used that to subject, you know, to inflict pain on both parties in washington. and most conservatives think that's a good thing. >> charles, do you think cruz could turn trump into some sort of -- you know, he has

establishment the end sendencyt careful, don't trust him. >> i do. and i think mark makes an excellent point. i don't think anyone's thrown a good amount of money into characterizing trump into what he is. jonathan alter's exactly right. there's a lot of people who may come out to vote for donald trump who aren't conservatives, who are maybe first-time voters, who maybe used to be democrats and now republicans. but to win the primaries, overall, he's going to need more than just those new voters. and if ted cruz can secure his position among conservatives and cast donald trump as sort of an outside in his own plane can be a bad thing, then i think he can inflict some damages. >> but in iowa, which is where we're focused right now, i can't think of any candidate in the last 40 years who's won the iowa caucuses, since jimmy carter did in 1976, and invented the iowa caucuses, essentially, who didn't have the best organization. in that race, it's very hard to win if -- >> boy, i hear you -- >> i'm not being categorical --

>> i hear you. >> rules are meant to be broken. >> and huckabee didn't have the best organization with every interest group helping him at the last minute. what do you make of the -- is the trump organization good enough to win iowa? >> everything i know suggests that it is, unless there's just absolutely, the emperor has no clothes thing here. they are -- i think they've done more organizing than they let on. i think part of the reason they don't cooperate with the press is they want there to be an element of surprise here. and i think trump is going to have huge events, the biggest events we've seen, certainly, of any of these candidate a the end here. maybe deploying palin as well. the key is, again, getting those first-time people in. obama, president obama, as a candidate, proved he could do it. the other thing, though is, you know, you need organization, right? organize, organize, organize, get hot at the end on part of what this palin endorsement is about, part about the frequent trump visits over the next two weeks is he's going to be hot at the end. trump will get the most news coverage of any other republican candidates at the end in iowa, and that's part of being hot. >> speaking of, john, before i

have you weigh in here, i want to let people know at the podium right now is john wayne's daughter. earlier today, we thought this was going to be the biggest endorsement donald trump was going to tout today. he went to john wayne's hometown in marion, iowa. and he received the endorsement of the entire john wayne family. anyway, i just thought i would pass along a little bit of that. mr. heilemann, do you want to weigh in on the organization front? >> look, there's no -- i think there's absolutely no doubt that donald trump has good people working on the ground in iowa. i think there's no doubt they are putting a lot of effort into that. this is not a pretend effort, but they are trying to do the hardest thing to do in presidential politics, not just to compete in a caucus, but to compete in a caucus and to win by expanding the electorate and getting people who normally don't go to caucuses to go. the reason nobody has -- with barack obama, the reason no one had done that on a large scale is because it's really, really hard. and we're not going to know the answer as to whether these guys

are actually doing. we know they're trying to do it. but we don't know if they'll be successful until we get to caucus night. there's no way to measure the effectiveness of that ground organization until we see what the vote totals are. >> radika, jump in. >> even if it's a narrow victory for cruz, if he wins iowa, trump has all the energy on his side now. and palin brings energy. that's really what she brings. if cruz has one victory under his belt, an actual victory, where people came out and, you know, put their support for him on the table, you know, i think that's a very different picture going pardon. >> trump is more fun than cruz, too. you know, he's just more fun to be involved with. >> but that may hurt him. i will be happy to admit it, on television, if i'm wrong about this, but i do get the impression that a number of the people who are backing trump are going to his rallies because he's entertaining, because he's cathartic, especially now that sarah palin is involved. that only augments this aspect. >> i've heard this. you get about half the people

show up just to see the show. >> that's part of it. but nate silver had a piece the other day saying he'd been to one of these events and when the locals were asked, how many of you are going to go caucus, about 1% of them said they were going to go do that. that's an anecdote, i accept. but i've heard this from a number of people, and i just wonder if it's going to turn out, if there's a difference between the donald trump show and donald trump actually winning a primary. >> you know, mark and jon, there is a glasses half-full moment here for ted cruz. two weeks ago, the question was, how big was ted cruz's victory in iowa going to be, right? and now a win a win, right? >> i thought people wrongly did ted cruz did him that harm. i never thought his lead was as big as the public polls had it. i think at this point, the game is, assuming neither trump nor cruz collapses, the game is, does anyone come out of iowa as

a story? whether cruz beats trump or loses to trump, they'll be the stories coming out of iowa, one and two. i think carson could finish third. and that might negate the notion that anyone that comes out of iowa besides cruz and trump have a ticket. but the real question, can one of them pull ahead, can one of them come out with a win where the story of the night not is, it's a two-man race coming out of iowa, but rather, one of them had a substantial victory, and then vanquished the person and goes on to new hampshire and tries to come back. if trump is the winner in iowa, it's harder for him to ride into new hampshire with momentum. it's hard to see him finishing first, even first in iowa. >> i have to say, though, isn't it more important, if cruz is the -- i feel like the scenario, like we work backwards. cruz is the nominee. can he do it without winning iowa? >> i think he can. >> you do? >> i think if he and trump are one, two in iowa, with trump first, and then one, two in new hampshire, again, even if trump

is still first, i think cruz can go second, second, first, in south carolina. i think he could do that. >> i think that's -- i think that's perfectly plausible. there really are, i think, the real action in iowa now will be for that third place slot and the question, can someone be a dominant third place if there's such a thing. but look, as long as those two guys, if they both finish in any order in any -- in any order of one and two, in iowa and new hampshire, they will come out of those two, those two races and be such the dominant story going into south carolina, that then a victory by cruz in south carolina and putting him on level footing with trump in the southern primaries, i think that's a path that you can imagine cruz traveling all the way to the nomination. >> i don't think third means anything in iowa. there's very little connection, historically, between iowa and new hampshire, anyway. the people in new hampshire don't give a rat's patootie

about what happen in iowa. they never have. the turnarounds have been -- >> oh, yeah. >> so it really is -- if trump wins iowa in a state that is very religious in those republican caucuses, he doesn't -- everybody knows he doesn't have a religious bone in his body. you know, people know this about donald trump. if they vote for him anyway, in those caucuses, i think he has a real head of steam for the nomination. >> mark and jon, i wonder if you agree with this theory. if donald trump wins iowa, he's got a better chance of ending his anonymous process sooner than hillary clinton does? >> i thought for a while, because i think at this point, if you said, of all the people in the race, who's the one most likely to win both iowa and new hampshire, today you'd have to say it's trump. and i think if he wins them both, despite what i said before about cruz possibly coming back in south carolina, trump could end -- trump could effectively end this tonight in the new hampshire primary. you look at the latest poll out of new hampshire tonight, you look at what's going on in iowa, where we've seen on the ground

and momentum for bernie sanders, trump right now is the most likely person to win both the first two, and to, again, be really well poised to win the table. >> it's the first three at that point. you can imagine trump winning. it's easy to imagine trump winning iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina, and then beating the nominee, basically. i can't imagine, at this point, looking at the momentum that sanders seems to have in new hampshire, seeing how close things are in iowa, i don't believe that the democratic race will end on the night of the south carolina primary. >> yeah. >> and i can imagine the republican race, in that trump scenario, i can imagine it ending on the night of the south carolina primary, on the gop side. >> by the way, for anybody over the age of 40, i think trump has the best soundtrack. it's pretty clear. now we've got a little journey. all right radhika, if trump and sanders win iowa, who gets the cover? who's the bigger story? >> oh, well -- >> we know. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> we don't want to say it. >> how about a split run?

>> you can split it. buy sanders times and in new york city you buy your trump "time" magazine. boys, what do you guys say? bigger story? sanders beating clinton in iowa or trump? >> you would have to split screen it. but, chuck, i know you know this -- >> i know, we know. >> if you're ever in doubt about what the biggest story is, trump. just is. here's evidence of it. trump gets a palin endorsement, which up in of us can really know what it means -- >> i'm glad you said it. >> -- there's a poll out tonight that shows sanders with a 30-point lead in new hampshire. which one will get bigger coverage over the next day? >> go ahead, jon. >> i sort of disagree. i think at this point, the notion of trump winning iowa is pretty well -- as we've been discussing here, the idea that trump could win iowa is pretty well accepted. as recent as a few weeks ago, everyone thought there was no chance bernie sanders call come back and win iowa. i think the only bigger story in the world, in the universe than donald trump, is a clinton

downfall. >> here's why i disagree. if trump wins iowa, as we suggested before, he's not on glide path to the nomination, but he has well positioned. sanders winning iowa doesn't mean sanders is suddenly going to be president. and the other thing is, sanders has won elections. donald trump would be one for one in the toughest field in politics. that's a big story, even if it wasn't donald trump. >> the other candidates don't have a firewall. >> let me go to hallie jackson. let me go to hallie. hallie, it is, you know, there is an unbelievable poll result right now in new hampshire, it's a cnn poll. it is a near 30-point lead for sanders. i have to say, i don't know anybody in either of the campaign that believes that bernie sanders is up 30 points, but, wow, what a public momentum boost. >> reporter: and republicans are licking their chops about it, chuck. i mean, the possibility that bernie sanders could be the nominee for the democrats, as one insider put it to me, at that point, if bernie sanders does happen to win the democratic nomination, as this person said, the republicans

could run a doorknob and still win. if it came down to something like a trump versus sanders potentially in this race, and yes, we might be getting ahead of ourselves, but the real question for the republicans at that point would be, do you do a president trump? and when we listen to the soundtrack here, in defense of all of those under the age of 40, everybody loves a good journey song, okay? >> i appreciate it. appreciate it. but i have to say, you know, and i know mr. halperin, you're an aficionado of music, young and old, but the trump sound is pretty good. the trump soundtrack. the trump soundtrack isn't bad, right? >> he's heavy on the -- >> he is. but it does fit his crowd. look, you know -- no, it's a little bit older, they are -- because it gets to, you know, he is attracting, and this goes to the whole trump and sanders, he's traattracting people that frustrated. >> can we talk for a second about "the washington post" story about trump and the casinos -- >> well, we did -- >> i know you did earlier in

your broadcast, but there was a fact buried in that the story that fred trump, donald trump's father, had to go and buy a couple million dollars worth of chips in atlantic city to help his son get the cash to make his interest payments. this is a guy who got bailed out by his old man. most voters don't even know he's not self-made. they think he made it all himself. he got it from daddy. >> this is where "the apprentice" remade his image. "the apprentice" gave him this, "i'm a success story." >> oh, yeah, and i'm serious about the merging of two reality brands. let's talk for a minute about reality television. a form of entertainment culture that was widely disparaged when it first started, but then, suddenly, came around to being basically the dominant way that we, not only entertain ourselves, but learn. and the fact that trump came up through that channel, that he remade himself through "the apprentice," i think is very significant. >> you know, she brings up a good point. this is culturally, and this is what i think that when we've all

failed to understand the trump phenomenon as soon as we did, he is fitting our cultural moment, where we are, culturally, in the 21st century in america. >> he is. >> with some voters. >> with some voters. and i'm not being entirely disparaging when i say he's running around the country channeling outrage and anger. in that he's positioned himself as a rorschach test. he's doing it very successfully on the right. i don't think president obama is a particularly ideological person. i think that much is obvious. and because of that, i think he's able to work out what within his rambling sentences resonates and then hit it and hit it hard. >> and everybody -- i can't tell you, anybody that knows trump a little bit all says the same thing. if he gets this nomination, he will move to the middle so fast, it will make your head spin. >> he doesn't believes any of this stuff he's saying -- >> i think he believes some of it. >> a lot of it -- >> but ideologically, he'll move to the middle, which is what the

populist want. >> but there is a temperamental test, that you have to pass. and he has not passed it with the majority of the american public. if you look at his numbers -- >> his numbers with all voters are terrible. >> yeah. >> but they're getting better every month with republicans. >> but, remember, there's 130 million people who vote in presidential elections. and he is not anywhere close to getting 65 million of them. he's not even within screaming distance of that. >> we're going to take a quick pause. we were expecting to see donald trump. no offense, you guys, you're terrific, but we weren't expecting all of us to be talking for the last 30 minutes. we were expecting to see trump and palin together, but we're still waiting to see the woman who used to be the biggest reality star in politics. i'll head over the "nbc nightly news," and while i do, my pal, chris matthews, is joining us. chris, it's all yours. >> let me go after these. let me ask charles cook, and

it's the question for everybody. ready? if you had a matchup come this november, it is this november, between sanders and trump, who would win? charles cook? >> oh, i think trump would win, because i think he'd moderate. i think he would use the republican tool kit to destroy sanders for being a socialist, and i think on questions of american strength and greatness, he would just about prevail. >> radikah, who would win? >> is there a write-in candidate? >> no. it's a choice, one or the other, binary. >> one or the other. i'm going to say trump would win that contest, because i think he's ideologically kind of in the middle already. >> right. >> and jonathan? who wins? >> i think sanders would win. >> when? >> very, very narrowly. >> i don't think people care -- >> give me the states that sanders would beat trump in? i'm curious, besides vermont. >> i think he would beat him in most of the obama states. >> in pennsylvania, you would

say -- pennsylvania and ohio, virginia would vote for sanders? >> i think that it would be very close -- i certainly wouldn't want to bet on it, chris, but you're putting a gun to my head. >> i'm asking you to. >> okay. i don't think you believe that pennsylvania would go for bernie sanders over donald trump. >> i think it would be tough. although his position -- sanders' position on guns would be okay in pennsylvania. >> that's true. he would battle trump on the populist trump pretty well. he would hold a lot of young people in minorities with part of the obama coalition. and yes, it would be hard for him, because we live in an aspirational nation where everybody wants to be rich and trump gets that much better than bernie sanders does. he would have to tone down some of his rhetoric. we would see how good of a politician or not so good bernie sanders was, but i don't -- we're so far past the cold war and all this rhetoric about being a socialist, being that

meaningful. remember, barack obama has been called a socialist endlessly by republicans and -- >> okay, let me move on. >> he denied it. >> jonathan, i think you're not sure and i understand why you're not sure, because nobody is. but let me go to another question. hillary clinton is sitting around with people around her, pretty smart people. they've been through a lot of these races and they're very experienced in presidential politics. as experienced as anybody's been in long history. charles, who would they rather run against -- wait a minute, here we go! >> ladies and gentlemen, please welcome the next president of the united states, michael j. trump. >> is this donald trump coming on the stage? okay, we're going to him, here. eventually, i guess. but who does hillary clinton least want to run against, trump or cruz? >> oh, that's a difficult one. i think she'd probably rather run against cruz. >> i think so too. how about you, jon, on this same question? >> definitely she prefers to run

against cruz. >> i think she would prefer to run against trump. because of the experience factor. >> really? huh. you mean cruz has experience? anyway, here he is. donald trump. >> thank you very much, everybody. such an honor. with the snow coming down and it's a little cold outside, and you have hundreds of people still outside trying to get in, but you know, we won't wait. we'll go ahead, right? we'll go ahead. first of all, congratulations to the iowa state basketball team. you had a -- what was that all about? i turn on the game, and i said, wow, this shouldn't be that good a game? and then at the end of the game, i said, who won? yes! that was -- that was great. that was great. and that's a great achievement. i want to also pay my respects. ben carson, they had a really bad accident, some of his staffers were hurt pretty bad, so i want to pay my respects to ben. he's a good guy, a really good guy, and his staffers and hopefully they get better. say a prayer for them, okay?

we've had an amazing time today. we've been all over iowa, and we're going to be here tomorrow. we're going to be here so much, you're going to get so sick of me, you're going to say, please tell him to get out of here, tell him to leave, tell him to go. but we've had an incredible time. and you know, it started, really, we've had pretty a really good week, the debate last week, everybody watched the debate. and who knew about these debates? i didn't know anything about the debates. and it's been fun and it's been interesting a interesting. so a lot of the press hasn't been very fair. but look at all the press out there. they must think there's a big event going to happen today. this is like the academy awards. but, we've had an amazing -- it's been an amazing experience and it started really on june 16th when we came down the escalator. we came down that escalator and i said, let's go. to my wife, who's been so supportive and so wonderful. i said, let's go.

we're going to make america great again. that's what we're going to do. and you know, it was -- it's hard to do this, because when you think of it, i've never done it before, i've never been a politician, thank goodness, i've always done jobs and put a lot of people to work, tens of thousands of people over the years. and you know, i have thousands of hispanics that love me, the nevada poll just came out, where i'm leading with hispanics, which i noo uh, i knew. and we came out and at that particular opening, when i opened and said i'm going to run for president, i gave up a lot, you know, i gave up a lot of different things, including telling our friends at nbc, no more "apprentice." that's hard to do. you have a top show, and you say, i'm not doing it anymore, i'm sorry, they wanted to do it so badly. and steve burke, a fantastic executive, came up to my office and said, come on, donald, do it. you're not going to run, do it. and i said, steve, i'm going to run. i was pretty sure.

all my life i've heard, if you're a very successful person, you'll never run for president. you'll never really run for politics, but you'll never, ever run for president. and i built a great company and it's a tremendous numbers, you saw the filings and the press was going to look so closely, that it was like d-day when we put those papers in. you know, first thing i did win announced. they said, oh, he's actually going to do it. because most of them said, he'll never do it. then when i signed form "a," that's when you sign your life away. and i signed that. they said, whoa, he signed that. well, he'll never file the financials because maybe he's not as rich as everybody thinks. and i filed the financials, and they saw an unbelievable -- you didn't hear a thing about it. oh, boy, were they looking. i mean, were they looking. almost 100 pages. biggest report i've ever filed with the fec in terms of that. and it showed a company that's a phenomenal company. some of the great assets, very little debt, tremendous cash

flow, the way it's supposed to be, it's great. and the way i tell you that, because that is the kind of thinking we need now in the united states. we need that kind of thinking. we need that, whatever it is. we need a mentality that's going to, you know, add $19 trillion in debt. it's going to be up to $21 trillion. you saw that horrible budget. horrible, horrible budget that was approved two weeks ago. and that's going to lift it. so we went along and a lot of things have happened, then the polls came out, which we love, and new ones came out today. and they came out, some brand-new ones, some beauties. and big one's coming out, i don't know exactly what it is, but it's got to be pretty good, because i see the response. with all the people trying to come into this building, somebody said it's a barn. this is a very nice barn, actually. but with all of the people, still trying to come in, you see what it is. and we have something special in a couple of minutes. to me, it's really special,

because it's a person that i think is a spectacular person. so it's very special to me. but then the polls came out and some of them, as an example, national polls, 38% for trump, 20% for second. i wouldn't even mention names. i won't even mention. 21% for the second, 11%, then they're all down, and some of them are at zero and 1%. i don't know. jeb! jeb. well, you know, jeb's got one problem. he loves common core, meaning he wants your kids educated from washington, which is immediately no good. and his second problem is he's very, you know, very weak on illegal immigration. remember, he said, they come as an act of love. i said, what? they come as an act of love. i think those are two very bad points, frankly.

yeah. thank you. thank you. >> usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! thank you. thank you, everybody. thank you very much. so we had -- we had another one, a big one come out -- go ahead. you can get them out, please. all right. yeah, you can take them out now,

please. never fails. all right. thank you. thank you, darling. maybe you can be quiet a little bit while they take you out. you know, i have to be careful. if i'm too rough, they say, he was too rough! then when i'm moderate and nice, they were saying, what happened to trump? he's not tough enough. so you can't win with these people the one good thing is they always show the crowd. that's the only way they show how big our crowds are. all right, get 'em out. get 'em out of here. all right. so south carolina just came out, and that's 32 for trump, 18 for second, 11 for third, great. florida, leading by a lot. 31-19, 13, and all down in the dumps. georgia just came out, i have

33%. don't forget, that's 33%, that's hard to believe, that's with 14 people, 15 people. i don't know when they took it, but it was recent. 33%. connecticut, now, tom brady loves me and it's sort of like,, you know -- and i love tom brady, by the way. 35% to 18% to 9% to 2% to, you know, to nothing. maryland just came out. maryland, great place. 32% to 15% to 11% to 9%, and then, you know, they sort of phase out. you ever hear of a place called iowa? i love this. we're doing actually great. first of all, i have to tell you, you know, they never report it. even cnn doesn't report it. cnn does a poll, probably spent millions. they never report their poll. the cnn poll was 33 for trump, 20 for cruz. nobody talks about it. nobody -- they don't talk about it. they talk about cnn is reporting

other people's polls. so, i call up, i said, wait a minute, you're cnn, you spent a fortune on polls, and you don't report your own poll, because i'm winning by a lot. and they have no excuse. but they keep reporting other polls. but we're doing well. i think we're doing a lot better than anyone else. 34 for trump, 28 for cruz. ppp, 28 for trump, 26 for cruz. in other words, it's a little close here. quinnipiac poll, very respected, 31 for trump, 29 more cruz. and then, again, cnn, 33 to 20. so we're -- i think we're doing good. i think we're actually doing better than the polls. i could say, well, i just want to do well in iowa. i want to win iowa, folks. because, look, i love the people, the evangelicals have been phenomenal. i'm doing great with the evangelicals, but nationwide, i'm winning with the evangelicals. i don't know if you know that, by a lot, nationwide. with iowa, i'm doing really well

with the evangelicals, i'm doing well with the tea party, we're doing well. these are the numbers. you hear the numbers, but i actually think we're doing even better than the polls. there's a thing a lot of people say, they call up, are you going to vote for trump? he's got very, very tough immigration policies. he wants to destroy obamacare and replace it with something a lot better. i'm going to do that, okay? but, you know, a lot of people, they'll pick up a phone and they'll hear different things and they'll say, no, i'll vote -- then they'll get in the booth and they'll say, trump is my man. there are a lot of people saying that err woo going to do a lot better, well, we'll see. because february 1st, you have to get to caucus, you have to go out, you've got to do it. otherwise, we've all wasted our time. you know, one of the groups in maine, and it was like incredible, we were in different places up in new england, recently, and new hampshire was amazing. the people were -- it was so cold, there was one little group of -- despite global warming, you hear all about, you know, it was so cold. it was windchill below zero. and people are standing outside

for hours, trying to get in. and then you'll hear the announcers, well, will they show up to vote? i don't know much, but i say, like, if people are going to stand out there for four hours in the cold or the heat. because, believe me, they stood out in the heat and summer in the fall like you wouldn't believe. in tennessee, in texas, we have 21,000 people. no matter where we go, we'll have these big crowds, but they'll stand for hours and hours to get in. why aren't they going to go and vote, or in your case, caucus? why wouldn't they -- sort of an amazing thing. so we think they're going to really be -- why would someone wait for four hours and not take two minutes to vote. yours is a little bit different, the caucus system is a little bit more complicated. it's a very interesting system. you know there's a movement to move iowa to the back of the pack, you know that? you'll still see me, but you won't see other people, believe me. to a fault, i'm loyal. you're going to see, i give you

my word, i win, they're not touching iowa. this is an amazing tradition. no, seriously. this is an amazing tradition. they're not moving iowa back. they're not -- and they're not moving new hampshire, either. because they're talking about iowa and new hampshire. they're not touching new hampshire. so, we're going to just keep it the way it is. it really is, it's an amazing -- first of all, you're amazing people. but all over the country, it's a movement. all over the country, that people are incredible. they want to make america great again, they're going to do something that's special. we used to talk silent majority, i say it's a noisy majority. it's not a silent majority. but people are fed up. so, i started on june 16th and we did well, right, practically, from the beginning, we went up, and if you remember, we started at, you know, nothing. we started at nothing, nobody believed i was going to vote. so my wife said, you know, if you run, you're going to win.

i said, what do you mean? she said, people don't believe you're going to run. so the polls, you know, i was getting these little polls. i felt like some of these guys now that are senators and governors. they get these little polls. i was -- they can't get this guy. he goes, jeb again, right? boy. he's taking a lot of abuse. i should, you know what, you should use the name bush. what's wrong? use the name bush. maybe it's not working, but it's better than jeb, right? i really do. get rid of the exclamation point and put jeb bush. it's your name. don't be ashamed of your name. but, anyway, i wish him the best. so i started and i started at like 2 or 3 and then it went to 6 and then it went to 9. and each time the pundits, these real geniuses back here, some of them are sitti ting back here. these real geniuses like george will with the little glasses, take away the glasses. he looks like a dumb guy, i'm

telling you. but each time these geniuses would say, well, he's reached his plateau. he's plateaued at 6, right? then it goes to 11. well, you know, this is surprising, but he's reached his plateau. and them it goes to 18. then it went to 22, 24, 28, then it went to 32, then it went actually to 42 in the graves poll. and in reuters, we got to 42 and even a little above that. and all of a sudden, you didn't hear so much of a plateau. i want to plateau at 42, you know, 42 with like 14 people, that's pretty good. but they kept saying, he plateaued, that's all he'll get. he's got these followers. we have the smartest followers they are, number one. we have the smartest. and the hardest working followers. we have people that love the country more than anybody and they want to take back what happened, because our country is going to hell. we can be nice about it, say it

nice and soft. our country is going to hell, when you look at this crazy iran deal, where we're paying $150 billion, and they give us five back, but they don't know where the fifth is, and you understand what that means. that's not a good sign. they give us five people, but they get seven and they get 14 off the interpol list. these are bad dudes. they get 14 plus 7. so they're getting 21 people. and they have the right to do whatever they want, from an enterprise standpoint. right to do oil. right to do whatever they want. but what do they also get out of that deal? first of all, they're going to get nuclear -- they don't have to develop missiles, they can buy them. for the kind of money we -- they can buy them. remember the deal? they have 24 days for inspection periods. they also have self-inspection, right? but we paid $150 billion. i always say, wow, what a great -- the persians are great negotiators. i said, what a great deal that is. i said, two weeks i started, wait a minute, that's not a good deal compared to the other deal. they took over iraq.

we gave them iraq. we knocked the hell out of iraq, we decimated their armed forces, and, you know, for years, they would fight. for many, many years, for decades they'd fight, fight, fight, nobody would win, they'd fight, rest, then go back to fight. they were the same. and now, we gave them the second largest oil reserves in the world, which is iraq. we gave it to them. now they're going into yemen, and if you look at yemen, take a look. they're going to get syria, get yemen, unless, trust me, a lot of good things are going to happen if i get in, but let's just sort of leave it the way it is. they get syria, they get yemen. now, they didn't want yemen, but did you ever see the border between yemen and saudi arabia? they want saudi arabia. so what are they going to have? they're going to have iraq, they're going to have iran, they're going to have iraq, they're going to have yemen, they're going to have syria, they're going to have everything. they're going to be a monster. we've created this with stupid leadership. really stupid leadership. so when i started, i said, we

have to do something about it. it's not something i wanted to do, it's something we have to do. because we're going to make -- i'm representing you. i'm not taking any money. i'm not, you know, like some of these guys where they're getting millions and millions of dollars, from people i know. and they're nice people, and some are very bad people. but they have no interest in the country. they have interest in their company or countries they're representing. and these people and politicians are going to do exactly as they're told by their lobbyists and special interests and their donors. me, i'm going to do the right thing. i always tell the story, when ford moves to mexico, i'm going to talk them out of it. when nabisco moves their plan from chicago to mexico, i'm going to talk them out it. believe me, it's going to be easy. it's going to be easy. so i started and talking about the border, very strong on illegal immigration, took a lot of heat, but you wouldn't even be talking about that subject if i didn't bring it up. and again, i talked about isis, i talked about -- but what

really happened is after paris, we had 130 people killed. and by the way, i told you, common core is dead and second amendment is right this way. we're going to protect the second amendment, we're going to protect the guns. we're going to protect your guns. you know, if in paris and in los angeles where you had the two maniacs that were married, she came on a fiancee permit, you know, wonderful fiancee. she was totally radicalized. maybe radicalized here, maybe already that way. but we have to start thinking, we have to start using our head. bad stuff is happening. we have to find out what's going on. we have a president who won't even talk about the term. if you think, he won't even mention anything to do with what we all know is going on. and you can't solve the problem if you don't talk about it. you have to talk about it. so, very, very strongly, we started talking about that, and then after paris, and by the way, if we had a couple of you

and you and you, we had three or four people in that room in paris, as an example, where they have the toughest gun laws, like, in the world. you can't have a gun, unless you're a bad guy, you get a gun. and they walked and just said, boom, boom, boom, you, move over, boom, killed 130, more to follow, because there were people that were so badly wounded. but if we had a couple of the few of the people i pointed out. i could pick plenty in this audience, believe me. but if they had guns on their waist, if they had guns around their ankles where the bullets went the opposite direction, who would have been a whole different story, folks. would have been a whole different story. so very, very big on second amendment. but what happened is, all of a sudden, after paris and to an extent and a pretty big extent, to los angeles -- you know, in california, what happened is these polls started coming in where everybody like trump even more. i went up 11 points. i don't want to do it for that reason, but i went up -- because people want strength. just like having the family of

john wayne, who is great pip love john wayne, from iowa. but out of nowhere, i got the most beautiful letter from his daughter, who's an incredible woman, and said, we would like to endorse you. john wayne was a strong guy. we need strength. we need strength in this country, because we're withering away with political correctness nonsense. you think of it, you can't say merry christmas anymore. we're going to say merry christmas anymore. you go to the department stores and they don't have any christmas displays, they don't have the signs, "merry christmas." even people who aren't christian say, merry christmas. let us say merry christmas, happy holidays, but people like to see it. and stores don't put it up anymore. we're withering away. we're going in the wrong directions. so i said, we're going to do this and i had no idea it was going to work this way. i figured i would be in the pack, like a racehorse, you could inch it out. i had no idea i would have

21-point leads. nationally, we're up by so much, and i want to keep it that way. when you think, and just one thing before i introduce our incredible person, our incredible guest. but one thing, i've spent to this point almost nothing and i'm in first place by a lot. i'm not bragging about spending -- i'm just saying, i have spent almost nothing and i'm in first place by some polls have me 21 points. that's a lot. okay? some people have 2. i have a lead of 20. but i'm in first place by a lot. jeb has spent now $77 million. think of it. and you know, the reason i bring him up, i wouldn't even bring him up, but he spends a fortune on ads against me. you people have all seen it before. i got along with everybody opini, i contributed -- i was a world-class business, now i'm a politician, but you go, everybody, you want everybody to love you. everybody knows the story. so much money has been spent on

me. he's spent $79 million. i spent nothing. i'm in first, by a lot. he's down like toward the bottom of the pack. and i say to myself, it's amazing. wouldn't that be great if this were the country doing this? as an example, education. we're number 28 in the world. we have third world countries that are ahead of us -- education is very important to me. 28 in the world. world, i mean, countries that you wouldn't believe are ahead of us. you wouldn't believe it if you heard the names of some of these countries. we're 28, but we're number one in spending per pupil, by far. wouldn't it be nice if you had like this election process, where we spent the least and had the best education, you know? so sweden and norway and china and others are the best. we're nowhere near them, yet we spend far more per pupil. so we're going to change that and get it localized, but we're going to change that.

watch. you just watch. i can tell you, we are going to -- and i'll just -- i will tell you this, you can't educate your children through bureaucrats in washington. and that's what happens with common core. when the parents take over, when the parents take over, and i really mean this, because i've seen it. when the parents surround those schools and love those kids and love those pupils, and even when their kids graduate, they are committed to those schools. they're committed to education. you can do so much better in iowa than they can possibly do telling you what to do in washington. and not all of them, but most of them are just interested in where's my check? how much do i get. let's make the process complicated. and some of the things that your kids are made to study are an outrage, okay? so we're going to bring that locally, and it's going to be great. okay, what happened, essentially, i started looking and all of a sudden things changed.

and people know i'm going to do great with china, with japan, with mexico, who's killing us in trade and killing us also at the border. we will build a wall, and you know who's going to pay for the wall? mexico. they're going to pay for it. because they make a fortune. and all of those things. but now we're really focused on security. and i'm honored, because i will tell you that all of the polls the, and the cnn polls in particular, where they said, trump is just, not by a little bit, but by many, many, many percentage points, winning on isis, winning on the military, winning with the vets, we're going to take care of our vets big league, by the way. big league, big league. and we're going to really take care of our military. it's going to be big and strong and powerful and nobody's going to mess with us. and it's the cheapest thing we can do, i can tell you that right now. so it's been a real focus. i just want to now say just a couple of words about a very special person. this is a person who i've known for a long time, who i've respected for so long. an incredible husband, an

incredible family. and somebody that when i heard she was going to endorse me, i was so honored. you have no idea how honored. and i would like to bring up, if i might, governor sarah palin. special, special person. thank you. >> thank you so much. it's so great to be in iowa. we're here just thawing out. todd and i and a couple of our friends here from alaska, lending our support for the next president of our great united states of america, donald j. trump. mr. trump, you're right, look, back there in the press box, heads are spinning. media heads are spinning. this is going to be so much fun. are you ready to make america great again?!

we all have a part in this. we all have a responsibility. looking around at all of you, you hard-working iowa families, you farm families and teachers and teamsters and cops and cooks, you rock 'n' rollers and holy rollers. all of you who work so hard, you full-time moms, you with the hands that rock the cradle. you all make the world go round. and now our cause is one. when asked why i would jump in, into a primary, kind of stirring it up a little bit, maybe, and choose one over some friends who are running, and i've endorsed, a couple others, in their races before they decided to run for president, i was told, you know, warned left and right, you are going to get so clobbered in the press. you are just going to get beat up. and chewed up, and spit out. and, you know, i'm thinking,

and? yeah? you know what, you guys haven't tried to do that every day since that night in '08, when i was on stage nominated for vp, and i got to say, yeah, i'll go, send me, you betcha, i'll serve. and like you all, i'm still standing. so those of us who have kind of gone through the ringer, as mr. trump has, makes me respect you, even more. that you're here, and you're putting your efforts and you're putting reputations, you are putting relationships on the line to do the right thing for this country, because you are ready to make america great again! >> well, i am here, because like you, i know it is now or never. i'm in it to win it, because we believe in america. and we love our freedom. and if you love your fr