he is 2/3 of the way there. the final third when the decisions were actually made to do this, i think that would probably be the doozie here. that does it for us tonight. "first look" is up next. it's thursday, january 21st. right now on "first look," 100 million people are in the path of a nor'easter bringing as much as three feet of snow to some areas. while others will see freezing rain and even a chance of rare january tornadoes. stocks plunge even deeper as oil drops to prices not seen since 2003. we'll tell you what's ahead for today. hillary clinton is facing the prospect that senator bernie sanders may beat her in iowa and new hampshire. plus michigan governor releases e-mails related to that toxic water crisis. fireworks for all the wrong reasons. we'll explain. >> and snowborders facing possible criminal chargers for triggering an avalanche. "first look" starts right now.

good morning. i'm gigi stone woods. the biggest storm in a century. that's what some cities faced this weekend as a monster winter storm makes its way to the eastern part of the country. 100 million people are in the nor'easter's path with the upwards of two feet of snow in some areas. last night, upon returning to washington from detroit, president obama's motorcade got all backed up as slick roads delayed the commander in chief's return to the white house. baltimore and washington, d.c. are already under blizzard watches starting friday afternoon. winter is trying to catch up on what's been a pretty mild season so far. and nbc meteorologist bill karins is tracking the storm. >> good morning. >> give us the latest. >> overnight a slight shift to the south. we've also added some colder air. now we're getting southern cities added to this mess. that's why we're up to about 100 million people. winter storm watches from memphis to tupelo all the way now to areas around new york city and as far south as raleigh, charlotte and greenville, south carolina. it's the mid-atlantic and areas through the tennessee valley

that are going to see the worst of it. blizzard watches have been issued from washington, d.c. to philadelphia. and surprisingly this morning even new york city is now under a blizzard watch all through long island. the snow will not be as heavy but it will be very windy. let me take you through the snowfall forecast. in the west, what's going to happen first, memphis could get four inches, paducah, seven inches. lexington, kentucky, could get a foot of snow. kentucky is getting into the game with this crippling snowstorm. and that for you is mostly a friday event. snow-lined, heavy know through central north carolina. the mountains could get a foot and a half. greensboro, winston-salem could get a foot. a lot of icy, sleet, freezing rain, charlotte and rally. the bull's-eye, the historic portion of storm, two feet of snow possible for the mountains of virginia, washington, d.c. still looking at a chance for a 20 inch snowfall. and then further to the north snowfall totals have been knocked down for areas from new york city northward. new york city is right on the line of the lighter snow there's the heavier that will fall in areas near philadelphia. so this is obviously going to be a high impact, crippling storm for areas of the mid-atlantic.

but, this is the reach of the storm now. it's gone all the way to memphis. so it's not just the mid-atlantic anymore. >> bill karins, thanks. they say money can't buy happiness and at least in this election cycle it can't buy support either. this is according to the latest ad study numbers by campaigns and outside groups. they're showing republican front-runners donald trump and ted cruz have spent more than $8 million on tv ads combined. compare that to $91 million spent in support of jeb bush and marco rubio. that's staggering. when you include john kasich and chris christie that number jumps to $114 million. that's more than 14 times that of outsiders trump and cruz. and speaking of senator cruz, he doesn't have a fan in former gop presidential nominee bob dole. senator dole spoke with "the new york times" saying he questions cruz's loyalty to the republican party, and says it would suffer, quote, cataclysmic and wholesale losses if cruz received the nomination. ouch.

the former kansas senator was kinder to donald trump who he says has the right personality, although dole does remain a jeb bush supporters. we want to make that clear. this with the iowa caucuses only eleven days away and nbc's kerry sanders has more from the campaign trail. >> there is an assault on christianity and an assault on guns. there's an assault on everything -- >> reporter: donald trump. >> and we're going to stop the assault. >> reporter: and sarah palin. >> thank you so much, oklahoma. >> reporter: the former vice presidential candidate saying trump will give the u.s. military what they now lack. >> let them do their job and go kick isis' ass. >> reporter: that military theme turned personal for palin. >> i guess this kind of elephant in the room. >> reporter: the enthusiastic crowd of 10,000 in tulsa fell silent as palin explained her oldest son, track, an iraq war veteran, was arrested monday in

alaska. and charged with domestic violence against his girlfriend. >> but my son, like so many others, they come back a bit different, they come back hardened. the question though, it comes from our own president where they have to look at him and wonder, do you know what we go through? >> reporter: with the stop today here at oral roberts university, and at liberty university. >> we're going to protect christianity. >> reporter: trump's focus is now on the evangelical vote. hoping to peel away ted cruz supporters in iowa. while palin may anoint trump with some evangelicals, she's not universally loved by trump supporters. >> i never liked her. i don't like her. >> so does the endorsement help or hurt trump in your view? >> the people i've talked to, i think it hurts. >> reporter: kerry sanders, nbc news, tulsa. i'm kristen welker in new hampshire, feeling the bern. hillary clinton surrogates ramping up their attacks, now

painting senator bernie sanders as an unelectable socialist. >> i think it would be impossible for a self-declared socialist to win in a state like missouri. >> reporter: but bill clinton steering clear of the "s" word borrowing from the 2008 clinton playbook saying sanders is unelectable and just can't win. >> the real issue is who can win the election, who's prepared to do the job, who can make real change? >> reporter: could the socialist line of attack backfire? >> a lot of those voters are going to be capable of looking past the socialist label. >> reporter: the current gop game plan, build up sanders, the republican national committee tweeting during last weekend's democratic debate, i feel the bern. >> they're trying to prop up bernie sanders. they would rather run against him. >> reporter: the clinton campaign getting jittery with polls showing her lead slipping. a dead heat in iowa. sanders firmly in the lead in new hampshire. the campaign downplaying any nervousness to andrea mitchell. >> we have a candidate leading

throughout the country. she is leading in all the super tuesday states by significant margins. >> kristen welker and kerry sanders, thank you. we continue to learn more about the flint, michigan water crisis, including new details about decision making. unfathomable. as promised in his state of the state address, governor rick snyder's office released more than 200 pages of e-mails from 2014 and 2015 yesterday. so in them, a september e-mail from a top aide says responsibility for the crisis lies with the city and county. but that the state should be involved to avoid the narrative that the state is ducking responsibility. now in several october e-mails, snyder asked for status reports on the situation. the governor said he acted when he knew, and was legally permitted to do so. he has apologized to the people of flint and promised to fix the mess. at the detroit auto show, president obama talked about the

crisis in personal terms. >> if i was a parent up there, i would be beside myself that my kids' health could be at risk. >> yeah, me, too. federal emergency declaration approved saturday allows the federal emergency management agency to deliver water, filters, and testing kits to supplement the local efforts. michigan's house of representatives unanimously approved $28 million to aid the situation. it now goes to vote in the state senate. overseas markets are mostly in the red this morning following another big sell-off on wall street. the dow closing down 249 points wednesday. as oil prices continue to tank. now, it's good news for drivers, but it's bad news for a major sector of the u.s. economy. where businesses are hurting. let's get the very latest from cnbc's landon dowdy. good morning, london. >> gigi, good morning. it has been a roller coaster and the markets could come under more selling pressure today but maybe not as severe as

wednesday. the dow was down as much as 560 points before reversing course. the index traveling 1100 points during the session. oil could drive action again with crude dipping below $27 a barrel yesterday on reports of a big increase in u.s. supplies. all investors are feeling the pain. the average 401(k) has lost $10,000 since the markets' peak last year. traders say there aren't many sectors to stash your money but they are encouraged as the market opened sharply lower wednesday and recovered some of that lost ground. meanwhile, most of walmart's hourly workers are getting a raise. more than 1.2 million employees will see higher pay this year. the retailer's also offering basic short-term disability insurance at no cost. and will allow workers to include paid time off, gigi. back over to you. >> good for walmart. thanks, landon dowdy. florida woman certainly earned the title supermom. check this out. monday night, three people tried to carjack a customer at a gas station, so after the driver locked the doors and sped off the trio turned their attention

to a second car. one suspect made it into the driver's seat but the owner wasn't about to let them get away. especially with her children inside. she yanked the carjacker out of the vehicle, causing all three to take off on foot. now police later caught the two adults, and one juvenile. but you never want to underestimate the power of a momma lion defending her cubs, adrenaline, baby. in sports as the nfl approaches their 50th super bowl, a first, the buffalo bills, the first pro franchise to hire a full-time female coach. katherine smith, she was named bills special teams quality control coach. and smith joined the bills along with head coach rex ryan a year ago in an administrative role. before that she worked for twelve years with the new york jets. mostly as a player personnel assistant. but it is an historic day. breaking the gender barrier. 11th ranked michigan state almost pulled out a last second thriller as valentine seems to trip as he throws up the ball and ends up nailing the three. incredible. moments later valentine with a chance for the win, misses the

jumper as the clock runs out. unranked nebraska hands the spartans their third straight loss. 72-71. number four villanova got quite a scare against unranked seton hall in a game that went down to the wire. nova pulls out their ninth straight win. but west virginia isn't so lucky. falling to the visiting texas longhorns 66-49. and a little tenderness at the australian open. jo-wilfried tsonga noticed a ball girl appeared to be crying. why didn't anyone else notice? he stopped play to check her out. she apparently was struck in the face with the ball. tsonga escorted her off the court to get some help. by the way, tsonga won the match in straight sets so maybe that helped him, his kindness brought him a little luck. the affluenza teen could be back on u.s. soil sooner than later. >> >> plus a group of snowboarders to face charges for triggering an avalanche. you're watching "first look." stay with us.

affluenza teen ethan couch

could be returning to the u.s. in a couple of weeks, according to his lawyers. the 18-year-old is expected to face a hearing in texas on whether to try him as an adult after fleeing to mexico with his mom last month. his avalanche video went viral now snowboarder christian mares who got buried deep in snow may now be in deep trouble for triggering an avalanche at a closed section of the sugar bowl resort in california. the resort is pursuing criminal charges saying mares put himself, his friends, ski patrol and the skiing public at risk. pharma exec martin shkreli famously raised the cost of an aids drug by 5,000%. he's now been subpoenaed to appear before congressional committee on january 26th. it's investigating drug companies for price hikes. on twitter he said he hasn't decided yet if you'll show up. shkreli has also invoked the fifth amendment in refusing to produce documents subpoenaed by the committee says the panel's chairwoman. what a piece of work that guy

is. this may look like the fourth of july but it was actually a massive explosion at a fireworks factory in china. three were killed, at least 53 injured. 1,000 people were evacuated after windows and doors of nearby homes were destroyed by the blast. ted cruz turns up the heat against donald trump. "scrambled politics" is next. this storm has such strong dynamics, we're already getting lightning strikes in arkansas with sleet. this is just the beginning of a long three days and including severe weather watch. i'll give you those details coming up next on "first look." . every day you read headlines about governments and businesses being hacked, emails compromised, and intellectual property being stolen. that is cyber-crime, and it affects each and every one of us. microsoft created the digital crimes unit to investigate and fight cyber crime. we use the microsoft cloud to visualize information, so we can track down the

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the first life threatening situation that's going to occur with this powerful storm is going to be severe weather later on today. this is going to roll through areas from houston and then head towards new orleans later on this evening. possibility of isolated tornadoes. this is an enhanced risk of severe weather. that will go through after dark tonight. as far as the snow fall map. this is the entire storm throughout the snow as plowable snow, very rare all the way from northern mississippi to memphis through kentucky then of course through the mid-atlantic where the possibility of it being historic is. this storm is beginning now. and it will end probably about sunday afternoon. >> okay. we'll brace ourselves. thanks. now, here is your thursday dish of "scrambled politics." a new poll shows donald trump holding a 20-point lead over ted cruz in new hampshire. but the texas senator is now trying to paint himself as the political outsider as he battles back against the donald. the washington establishment

is rushing over to support donald trump. we're seeing that happen every day, and mr. trump is welcoming the support of the washington establishment. >> cruz is also spending a lot of time in iowa although he doesn't appear to have many fans among the state's republican politicians. influential senator chuck grassley is joining governor terry branstad, publicly criticizing cruz's views on alternative energy. mainly corn grown from ethanol, an important sector in iowa's economy. meanwhile jeb bush is taking a decidedly different approach in trying to gain some traction with voters. bush's campaign is now handing out these glossy 47-page booklets entitled jeb's plan for america. touting his record and policy views. now the carson campaign may want to try something new, as well. in addition to his sinking poll numbers, uk based gambling site bet fair currently puts carson's chances of winning the presidency at 519-1. over less than the odds for al gore and michael bloomberg.

and neither of those two are running, even. the site has donald trump at 11-2. the best odds among republican candidates. something echoed by former congressman ron paul who tells news max trump is likely to be the nominee right now, which i would think would be a little awkward at the next family dinner considering his son rand is still in the race. thanks, dad. speaking of trump, were you a little confused during sarah palin's endorsement speech? jimmy fallon certainly was. >> right at a rally in iowa sarah palin gave a 20 minute long speech to endorse donald trump for president. at least i think she was endorsing donald trump. listen. >> the selfie stick, all that hopey changey stuff. you with the hands that rock the cradle. right wing and bitter cling proud only one candidate's record of success proves he is the master of the art of the deal. >> what? what?

selfie -- what? >> what's interesting is that in 100 years students will have to memorize that speech. >> those weren't even the best sports. i liked when she said squirmishes instead of skirmishes. that's your morning dish of "scrambled politics." i'm joined by political reporter erin mcpike. thanks for being here. >> good morning, thank you. >> the latest ad spending numbers show republican front-runners trump and cruz have spent a tiny fraction, less than a tenth of the establishment candidates. trailing behind them in the polls. so what does this tell us? are we in a new political year where ad spending just doesn't matter anymore? >> well, yes. but i think it preceded the trump phenomenon. every election cycle you hear more and more americans groan, more and more about how much they hate ads and consultants were starting to come to this realization. when you look at the spikes in social media and what voters are discussing, they are talking about the two candidates who know how to take advantage of

social media, who can get their message out through a variety of channels, not just social media, but through earned media, that's being on tv, getting in conservative media, and in the mainstream media, in newspapers, and can really mix it up. and that is trump and cruz. but this has been coming for a long time. >> and it's all free. now, bob dole has come out with some scathing words about ted cruz. he flat-out said no one in congress likes cruz, and that the republican party would suffer cataclysmic losses if cruz was the nominee. how damaging is this for druz? >> i don't think it is damaging at all. and this is not to take anything away from bob dole, who is, of course, a great statesman. but he did lose in a terrible loss in 1996 to bill clinton, and this is not the first person in the establishment who has said this about ted cruz. and when establishment republicans come after ted cruz it really only helps him with the base, but i don't think many voters are paying attention to what george w. bush says or what bob dole says. >> right.

it galvanizes his base. in this election, hillary clinton polling behind sanders in iowa and new hampshire. quickly, what does this tell us about democratic voters? >> i think it says very little about democratic voters. it says more about the two candidates themselves. many voters just don't really connect with hillary clinton. they don't like her. but they love what bernie sanders is saying about taking on the establishment. >> yes. even if he calls himself a socialist. erin mcpike, thank you. >> thanks. just ahead the heartwarming video of preemie twins that's been shared online by millions. plus snowed under. it didn't stop a driver from taking a spin. details up next. olay total effects a skin transformation that rivals the leading department store moisturizer. revives skin to fight 7 signs of aging. with olay, you age less, so you can be ageless.

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leading the news from nbc affiliate kgw, whiteness history month. lyle? it raises questions at portland community college. it's designed to examine community issues and social problems that stem from racism. lectures, panels and workshops on the subject are planned for the entire month of april. it generated a great deal of discussion on social media as you can imagine. i'm all for being provocative but i think they could have come up with a better name. >> in in the toronto star a man 80 charged for driving a car almost completely covered with snow. he's got a little peek hole in ontario canada this car was pulled over with only that small hole cleared over the driver's side windshield and door and the man was charged with driving with no clear view. he faces a $110 fine. i think they should let him off that poor little old man. plus a set of preemie twins becoming fast friends outside the womb. check out this picture. the twins were born in australia. and they're holding hands on their dad's chest. that is so sweet.

they were born severely premature but they're on the path to good health and they love each other. i'm gigi stone woods. this is "first look" on msnbc. don't forget to like us on facebook at first look msnbc. "way too early" starts right now. >>le. >> at a rally in iowa sarah palin give a 20 minute long speech to endorse donald trump for president. at least i think she was endorsing donald trump. listen. >> the selfie stick, send the greet columns and all that hopey changey stuff. you with the hands that rock the cradle! right wing and bitter clinging proud clingers only one candidate's record of success proves he is the master of the art of the deal. >> what? what? >> selfie? >> art of the deal. what's interesting is that in 100 years students will have to memorize that speech. >> oh, jimmy fallon, poking fun at sarah palin. but this morning there's another conservative leader choosing

donald trump over ted cruz. this time it's a former presidential nominee. plus bernie sanders under siege, taking hits from the left, and the right. another sign that the once long shot candidate is a real threat. and parts of the midwest and south already dealing with the snow and slick roads. but that's nothing compared to what's in store for the east coast. it is 5:30 on the east coast, 2:30 out west. this is "way too early." good morning, everyone. it is thursday, january 21st. i'm shiba russell. we begin with that dangerous winter storm that forecasters say could cripple parts of the east coast beginning tomorrow. a blizzard watch now in effect