>> you get the last line. >> look what happened to ben carson everyone started to covering him and then he has no way to come back. >> what a fun panel. we will bring y'all back maybe tomorrow you will be snowed in. "with all due respect" starts right now. i'm mark halperin. >> and i'm john heilemann. >> with all due respect to donald trump i'm not just a president, i'm a member. good evening from the water street cafe in new hampshire and happy national hugging day sports fans. mark? who is definitely not hugging, donald trump and ted cruz. these numbers are just out from cnn, donald trump leads cruz 37 to 26. last night cruz tried out a new

live attack on trump claiming he has the support of the dreaded washington establishment. this morning cruz tied trump to amnesty by sending a 2-year-old tweet from the donald. cruz opened up the arsenal. >> the language he is saying on the campaign trail does not match how he lived the first 60 years of his life. the first 60 years of his life he supported partial birth abortion. now he claims to be pro life. as a voter i have seen enough people, enough candidates, enough politicians say things on the campaign trail that they didn't follow through on that when everyone of his campaign promises is directly opposite where his record was that is troubling. >> on the counter attack, trump with snark retweeting this play on ted cruz's book cover for a time for truth and called in

glen beck who will be endorsing cruz a wacko. here we are with the latest installment. >> at this phase poll results set the narrative for who is being effective. that iowa poll tracks with other polls. trump is stronger and strong. cruz is not doing as well. i thought that cruz was doing well. i thought he was matching trump blow for blow. i will make myself subject to. i have to say trump might be doing to cruz what he has done to everyone else who challenged him. >> i talked to two others who said cruz has run a flawless campaign and he seemed a little befutalled. it is the fact that he is making inconsistent attacks on trump. i think you can say he is a member of the establishment or a closet liberal.

the fact he is going back and forth is a problem. >> at a minimum you can say cruz is no longer on his message. and trump is right where he wants to be which is hitting a guy who is playing by trump's rules rather than standard rules. >> of the two messages that cruz is trying to deliver the closet liberal seems to be stronger. no one is going to believe it. >> except it has been tried by seven other people. >> no one with cruz's standing has done it so far. there is a little more opportunity there. >> trump seems to be getting the best of this. senator cruz is a constitutionalest, a senator from texas and now seems to be hobnobbing as a political pundit. opining on marco rubio cruz told reporters that he is effectively out of the game. >> right now the washington establishment is abandoning marco rubio. they made the assessment that marco can't win this race and

the establishment is rushing over to support donald trump. >> today in response rubio said about reports of his demise are exaggerated and wrong. >> why is ted cruz spending so much money attacking me? here is the bottom line, we feel very good about our campaign. if i'm the nominee of the republican party we are going to beat hillary clinton. the most important thing to achieve is to keep hillary clinton out of the white house because she is disqualified from being president. >> is ted cruz correct that the establishment abandoned rubio and shifted to trump in. >> let's pause to make the point we will both make. whenever presidential candidates are acting like a pundit he is not astouzing the message. do i think marco rubio has trouble right now? i think marco rubio is not

consolidating. have they abandmed him? that is understated. he is not doing good by making the arguments. >> rubio is still based on the poll standing the one most likely to leverage success in the early states into consolidated establishment support. cruz is right that rubio is no longer without some success poised to consolidate after he got some initial support late last year he has consolidated a little bit. he is not the establishment choice. >> he is stuck at the -- there is no movement upward. the guy with movement upward is john kasich. i don't see rubio rising anywhere. >> this goes back to our first topic. cruz is trying to be too cute, trying to play phony pundit and make mischief in the race and trying to use his sway to shake the narrative. ondemocrats.

a new poll gives bernie sanders an eight point lead over hillary clinton. >> i say it again wowsa. >> in iowa. in the same poll last month sanders was losing behind by 18. that is enough to give brooklyn a really frigid winter chill. that means a lot is riding on the candidate's closing arguments. for a lesson in contrast let's look at what team hillary is putting on tv. >> the person who lives here has to solve problems as big as the world and as small as your kitchen table. that's the job every day. and now the first lady who helped get health care for 8 million kids, the senator who helped a city rise again, the secretary of state who stood up for america and stared down hostile leaders around the world is the one candidate for president who has everything it takes to do every part of the

job. >> today in iowa clinton followed up by calling herself the candidate who can deliver reality and says sanders struggled to get support in congress for health care proposals is a sign he is an inferior candidate. here is what sanders put on television today in iowa. ♪ ♪ i've got real estate here in my bag ♪ ♪ >> i'm bernie sanders and i approve this message. >> with that eight point lead in iowa let's say bernie sanders

seems to have real estate here. my question is who is currently winning the war to define bernie sanders? who is winning it? >> the clinton folks went after sanders today on national security. they are still going after him now on the big theme which is the one bill clinton seems to like is she is ready to be president and suggesting he is unelectable, unsafe commander in chief. that ad is really good. i'm a sucker for simon and garfunkel. in iowa on the ground i think sanders is controlling his message pretty well. >> i think this poll is basically in accord. the momentum is in sanders' direction. this ad with him as inspirational, aspirational, the ad she put on the air which is all about credentials and

experience. i do not think -- they are hammering him but at this moment sanders is still more in control of his public image. >> bernie sanders is defining himself the exact way his campaign he would have said in the beginning this is what will be still looking to define and they are not consistent. finally, we are going to talk about hillary clinton and how she is defining herself. hillary clinton in that ad we showed and overall is focussing on the notion of being a safe, solid choice and a member of the establishment to some extent. is it smart for hillary clinton to continue to run as safe solid establishment candidate? >> i think it may be a huge mistake when she looks back on it. when i watch the ads this morning i thought this is 2008 all over again. experience, ready from day one versus hope and change.

>> soon going back to 3:00 a.m. phone calls. >> i don't know whether she might have chosen an alternative path a long time ago. she chose this path. didn't work in 2008. i think the country is -- that is less now than it did in 2008. >> i don't see what choice she has. i think she needs a twist on establishment and say an experienced change maker. i also don't believe -- i think it is her resume. i do not believe based on where we are headed that that message will stop sanders in iowa and new hampshire. i don't think it will stop that message. >> a picture of her in the situation room on the day that the call was made on osama bin laden is a brilliant image for a general election. she should have that on every ad. >> and the nomination process not nearly as strong. coming up john kasich and

jane sanders. first dave carney on with us right after this. ♪ ♪ ♪ why fit in when you were born to stand out. the 2016 nissan altima has arrived. ♪

back here with the pride of the granite state, republican strategist, some call in veteran republican strategist, dave carney. we are going to keep on rolling through topics. you were quoted recently as saying if nothing changes donald trump will win this. >> i think the only chance is that ted cruz wins iowa with enough cushion to be a real win and not a split decision, comes in here, solidifies the conserver vote. >> you think nontrump winning scenario it is a cruz win. >> only. >> all the guys doing the work no establishment candidate can win new hampshire primary in your view?

>> correct. their win will be third, fourth and say they did this good. >> what do you think trump's floor and ceiling is? >> the ceiling is somewhere in the 40s. >> 40%. >> he wins iowa by 11 points. >> sometimes new hampshire voters say iowa is -- do you think new hampshire voters say -- >> the only time that happened is when there was a campaign that had a ground game tat built up support. >> what do you think trump's floor is? >> i think right now it is 25. >> why is trump so strong here? >> he has a message. his message he wants america great. he talks in simplistic terms. establishment candidates say we are going to invoke article 5 and he says we are going to bomb the -- out of them. >> second place is going to be

vital. is it cruz or establishment? >> big question. >> today we sat down with john kasich. right now kasich is the hot candidate. a poll out today on the crucial block of new hampshire independent voters has him tied with ted cruz for second place with 15%. that is the seventh poll in the past two weeks that have kasich in the two spot behind trump. today the super pack supporting him put out this ad. >> jeb bush once stood tall before his campaign sank like a rock and he started slinging mud on fellow republicans. that is not presidential. >> in the circular firing squad in new hampshire so far no one has been taking aim. in light of that fact that people are not shooting at kasich and that he is doing so well with independents how is it

shaping up? >> those guys have beaten the hell out of each other. kasich is in there, as well. i think the reason -- they are not beating up because he is not a real threat. >> he is tied with cruz. he should be dool really well. with hillary and bernie fighting here there is going to be a huge effort by hillary to attract independents to help her out. i think a lot of independents will be for bernie. so like usually one way or the other they go. >> the other thing about kasich is not too many people are hitting him now. he starts to do well in their view stylistically he is different. he has approached this thing in a different way from bush, from rubio and christie where he is like i'm not interested in

fighting but interested in talking to voters. >> think about how many voters he is talking to. there is a big difference. it does matter. the thing with kasich is i think his problem is that his message is maybe really good for new hampshire. what if he won new hampshire? what would happen then? they have nothing going on. >> in terms of christie and kasich you don't hear much of the establishment saying if that guy emerging from new hampshire we are all in. you hear it about bush and about rubio. to me that is the big question. christie does well here. do the establishment people say we are all in that guy can stop trump and cruz? >> i think they don't have any of that network to pick up on it. >> you think trump is the nominee? >> if trump wins iowa and new hampshire i don't know how

anybody can stop him. the last six months shown complete incompetence in dealing with trump. >> i want to make the longer question. is there anybody in the republican party besides ted cruz who can stop donald trump? >> i don't this can so. only 18% of voters of new hampshire have made a hard commitment. 82% of wide open. january 30 finance reports will set a lot. a lot of these campaigns are broke. that is going to be telling because it is not like voters generally care but activists do. that is where you see the chatter. i think it is very fluid and most guys could be surprised. considering how terrible the campaigns have been. >> is there anything a campaign can do except do well in the debates? >> if someone had a message. if you had a message. bernie has a message and trump has a message. >> thanks for stopping by.

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disadvantage? >> when you are running against five guys now all of them are better known than you are, i think at some point electability will kick in for a lot of voters. just again i know you don't want to talk about yourself, to make a case about why you would be a strong general election candidate? >> because i have won impossible races. the best example of it is ohio. i was told by somebody what was the last time a republican won the presidency without winning ohio. never. >> we are a young country. >> that's true. we have a lot of years left. i would say because when i get known and people do hear me i think it will go well. that is what i think. i don't have any -- >> let's talk about message like why can you beat --

>> i feel the people across the board only because i have been hard to define. maybe that is a problem is that people not to put me in a box. maybe that works against me but i think it works for me. people didn't know me here and then i'm rising here. if i come out of here you guys are going to -- >> and still nobody would know me. that is okay. you know what i'm saying. you get known and people get the measure of you and i'm confident that it will go well. i was confident it would go well here. a lot of people weren't and give me no time, no energy, no oxygen. it is working out. >> a lot of people in hillary clinton's world say republicans really want bernie sanders to be the opponent. bernie sanders would be the easier opponent. bernie sanders is much easier to mark. is it obvious to you it would be better to pick an opponent that

bernie sanders would be easier than hillary clinton? >> i think bernie could be the president of ben and jerry's, but i don't think of the united states. he is too far out sflmpt . on what issues? >> 90% tax rate. come on. it is not going to happen. >> you would rather bernie sanders for an easier race? >> i'm not thinking about that. i think either of them are very beatable. it's poor hillary like every time she thinks she is doing great something happens. it's interesting. i believe it's because she is a mechanical candidate. she is not a visionary. i think people like people who have vision or some simblance of vision. they are not really into plumbers. i like plumbers but -- let me fix this thing.

>> these problems are on issues and ideology and her problems are on character. >> i know bernie. he is not going to be president. >> you are in a sweet spot where you are doing well but the other five guys have a chance are beating each other up and you are maybe going to get to the end here without tons of scrutiny or attacks. when you have success that will come eventually tell us about your mental and intellectual readiness to be hammered. >> take things a day at a time. again, if you get. if your life depends on this then you don't have space. >> is there a day when somebody turns on the news and sees john kasich looking like a deer in the head lights? >> probably. i have no idea. >> toughest political attack

made against you and how did you handle it? >> i'm not going to get into it. i had some that have been wrong. you grow. you learn in this business. >> have you ever turned on the tv and seen a negative attack add against you? >> yeah. >> you laugh at it? >> guys, it is all part of it. >> it is part of it. you are not going to be president or the nominee without millions of dollars in negative ads. >> when i ran for governor said i stole people's pensions. i just go through it. >> do you laugh it off? >> i just don't overthink it. i might say what do you think

about that ad. i don't live in that world. since i have been running i cannot remember the last time i turned the television on. i don't turn the television on, not because i'm against television. >> have you seen our show? >> i don't. i watch the golf channel. >> the rest of our conversation with john kasich in a minute. medicine, i talked to my doctor and found a missing piece in my asthma treatment. once-daily breo prevents asthma symptoms. breo is for adults with asthma not well controlled on a long-term asthma control medicine, like an inhaled corticosteroid. breo won't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. breo opens up airways to help improve breathing for a full 24 hours. breo contains a type of medicine that increases the risk of death from asthma problems and may increase the risk of hospitalization in children and adolescents. breo is not for people whose asthma is well controlled on a long-term asthma control medicine, like an inhaled corticosteroid.

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here is part two of our conversation with john kasich here. we started out by asking governor kasich what are things he would tout about himself to try to persuade a voter between him and jeb bush? >> national security experience, private sector experience. >> he has private sector experience. >> maybe not quite the same.

i'm not into like i hit singles better than somebody else he wouldn't ask me that question. i don't get asked that question. >> you don't asked from people who say i'm choosing between. >> i tell them who i am and then they make up their minds. >> so i assume you take executive experience between the two of you. >> i'm just doing my thing in the town halls and telling people who i am and let them choose. i'm not into comparative stuff. people can figure it out. >> on the course of the numbers experience and what is different between how town halls feel now? >> they don't feel different at all. >> same reaction and crowd size.

>> the magnificent writer for "new york times" came out and said give kasich his due. he hasn't changed a single thing and it is paying off. he doesn't pander. these town halls are not different than what i did in the beginning of my career which is you go to people's homes and tell them about what you think and they figure out who you are. in my first campaign i think i did over 100 of these little coffees is what i called them. these are not any different than that. it is that these are bigger and in a big place. >> as best i can tell you haven't changed positioning in the course of the campaign and some aspects you explained it. have your advisers said you chd change this position? >> i have people tripping at me all the time. fundamentally the people closest to me say just be yourself.

>> what tdo you think causes people who do not run to change their position? what is that impulse? >> they want to tell somebody what they want to hear because that is human nature. for me i have never been that way. if i agree with them i will tell them. if i don't agree with them why don't i just tell them particularly if i know something. if i know anytime something why not just tell them what you know because i find people kind of like that. some don't. last night talking about social security and i said let me explain how this works. i would rather tell you and have you understand the system than for me to mislead you. i guess maybe at the end i'm not willing to do things or say things to get elected because what is that about?

so you can get elected and said like multiple things to multiple people why did you run? so either they take you for who you are or it is not worth being elected. life is going to go on if i don't win. it's not like i sit around grinding inside about all of this stuff. nobody can work harder than i am. i want to win but, you know, life goes on. >> what was the last thing that happened on the trail that touched you? >> there is so much that does. these two little girls came on the back of the bus. they were so sweet. there was another thing that happened and there was a boy that he and his dad came on the bus. one of my guys pointed out that he had leukemia. he has been getting treated. so i took him in the back of the bus and talked to him about i

don't understand the fear that he has but i talked to him about how i feel about life and the lord and -- great kid. i think his dad really appreciated it. been a lot of moments. we were in that place in manchester where they are rehabbing people and walking down the hall and there is a guy there and i go regular old guy and said how are you doing and he said i'm here being treated. i gave him a hug. it's no different than what i see in ohio. same deal. >> you are campaigning in an optimistic way. >> i think maybe the narrative isn't right.

>> a lot of candidates are appealing to you. this is my question. in the premise of a lot of other candidates is the country is going to hell in a hand cart. they look out and see a gloomy picture. you do not see nearly as gloomy a picture. do you think that is because you are a more -- you see the world through rose colored glasses? >> maybe because i have been around seeing things getting fixed almost all my lifetime. when wrou have experience and you can see how to attack vexing problems and get them fixed why would you change your mind and say everything is going to hell? because it is not. the biggest problem you have is people don't want to work together. i love that moment in the new hampshire house where i can tell them you have done something special. you're helping to save lives. isn't that fantastic? then you do better when you have

a good attitude as opposed to a negative attitude. in my experience i have seen the berlin wall come tumbling down. >> pretty good. >> who would have thought that? i have seen so many things happen. we have a drug now that cured hepatitis c. we put a man on the moon. look, we have our problems but there are so many unbelievable things now that you're not even old anymore. you would have been but now you are not because we are living so much longer. >> there is a range of tax plans from different candidates anywhere from traditional lowering rates and eliminating and scaling back to marco rubio's got ideas about family credits and senator's cruz's idea. what is your sense on where the party is and common principles? >> i think everybody is for lower corporate taxes. i think the democrats are for that.

i think on the personal rates i ask people at town halls how many think 10% flat tax and not one hand goes up. >> it is unrealistic. >> i believe the personal tax cuts are going to be very hard to achieve early on. i have been involved in tax reform. i think it is harder than balancing the budget. we are going to be probably ultimately close to where i am at 28, 25 and 10 with the lower capital gains rate with limited deductions. we are still tax cutting party. we still are tax cutting party. and sometimes if it comes to tax reform we ain't so hot as a tax cutting party because that makes us choose between one group or another. because some rates are going to go up or somebody will be affected negatively to bring everybody else down is a tough fight. >> our thanks to governor kasich

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considered. i think what he is doing is he is feeling an obligation to do it. that is where it came from. it came from our country is becoming -- or there are so many things that need to be changed and the powers that be are becoming much more centralized, much smaller group of people running our democracy. i think we just felt like how can we not do it? how can we complain about it and not do everything we can to change it? it wouldn't have occurred to me but a lot of people were asking him. >> the spouses of candidates, even the most ambitious ones are generally most hesitant like what is it going to do to my family? how many hours on the road? did you say you should do this? >> where haven't told this story. >> you can tell it now. >> when we first started talking

about it it was frustration that the issues that were most important to the american people were not being covered by the media. they weren't in the conversation. they weren't in the conversation in the last presidential debate and the one before that and not in the congressional debates. so we were talking about how the heck do we get people to pay attention to this. and we said well what if we float the idea that he run for president that he is thinking about running for president? it was just three of us in the room. >> who was the third person? >> richard our best friend. we are not going to do it. so why was that?

>> your reluctance was based on what? >> it would not have occurred to me to do that. we were hearing it a lot from people. the fact that so many people were saying you really have to run and i was saying i don't know. i don't know that we are ready for this. it's quite a bit. and ego and arrogance is not bernie's go-to place. his thing is service. >> you decide let's float it. >> we agreed to float it and then we were shocked as how much more the things that bernie was talking about in terms of issues were being covered because he might be a presidential candidate. time went on and i kept saying let's be clear here we are just thinking. we are more successful than we thought. if you look at the media over the time it was clear the issues

were being talked about. then it became our brain trust saying what about it. and i kept saying no can't you do it some other way? what about finding a nonprofit organization? and have you heard of move on? they are doing it. and they just kept on telling me that there is no way we can effect the change we want to effect without running for president. and so eventually we talked about it quite a bit. i think you probably know the story of the veteran in denny's. >> go ahead. >> we were at the point where we had to make a decision. we said we are going to make a decision this weekend. we went out to breakfast at denny's and person after person -- >> what town? >> burlington. person after person kept saying bernie we think you should run.

if you are thinking about it because everybody knew we were thinking about it we will be supporting you. these are working class people in denny's. we kept talking. we were at the point where he was saying -- i said to him if you decide to do it, if you really want to do it you know i will be 100% behind you. it is not something i am excited about but if you feel it is the right thing to do i will be 100% behind you. he says i don't want to do it unless you are 100% there. over walks a veteran and he says i don't mean to interrupt. i just wanted to tell you how much i support you and i want to thank you. you got me my benefits after 30 years. vietnam agent orange. and i will do anything that i can if you run for president because we need you.

so i got up tears in my eyes. sat down and i said i give up. you have to do it i guess. that was it. and then it was -- >> you said i give up. >> it was more because of where he was coming from. it's not i want to be president. it's i want to make a difference in this world. i want to help the working class. i want to help the veterans. the issues that he is always talking about he feels them so strongly. i am so proud of him because of all of that. and i kept on thinking there is another way to do that, to address those issues. and i admit now i was wrong. the only way to do it to really get the attention on the issues and change the conversation and then hopefully implement the

changes is to run and become president. >> our thanks once again to jane sanders. remember to watch the circus on sunday nights at 8:00 p.m. on show time. coming up the other candidates running for president. by other we mean other. why blend in with the crowd? why shy away from the extraordinary? why fit in, when you were born to stand out? the 2016 nissan altima has arrived. two words: it heals.e different? how? with heat. unlike creams and rubs that mask the pain, thermacare has patented heat cells that penetrate deep to increase circulation and accelerate healing. let's review: heat, plus relief, plus healing, equals thermacare. the proof that it heals is you.

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there are so many candidates running for president it is sometimes hard to keep track of them all before we consider besides the one we run about there are 58 other people technically running for president. this week here in the granite state they were gathered for the lesser known candidate forum. >> my name is joe robinson. i'm a republican candidate for president of the united states. >> i'm run frg president of the united states. >> president of the united

states. >> the new hampshire primary has always been the primary for the little guy. >> they call it the debate for the lesser candidates. i prefer other candidates or perhaps candidates of the people. >> new hampshire is a place where you file your application, pay $1,000 and allows you to be on the ballot. >> this is unique. >> this is the seventh time i run in new hampshire primary for president. >> this is the same sweater i wore in 2007. this year i'm on the ballot in puerto rico, missouri, louisiana, rhode island, west virginia, pennsylvania and arizona. >> my name is henry hues and i am the pro life democrat. i am qualified over 30 ballots. voters in ohio will have only

three choices on the democratic candidates, clinton, sanders and myself. o'malley did not qualify in ohio. >> how many of you would keep the deattention center open. >> the founders intended for that natural born citizen clause to have a -- >> who thinks ted cruz is not eligible to be president of the united states? >> just mr. robinson. >> i think it went pretty good. we all had an equal chance to speak and very good questions. >> is there anybody here on this who would side with republicans who wanted to defund planned parenthood? >> certainly would appoint

someone who believed in a woman's right to choose. >> i would not take away a woman's right to choose. >> i am the only pro life democrat in this race. >> nobody who thinks that -- >> what has to happen in this country to allow someone like yourself to get on this so-called main stage? >> new hampshire plays a critical role in allowing lesser known candidates to express their views. there is no reason at all that any one or two of the candidates at the tables right now couldn't jump into the top tier and become a top candidate. >> the chances of anybody making it through this pack even if they happen to be seen next to hillary is none. it is not possible. >> 222 last time against -- i really didn't have the money to be up here for a year and buy advertising.

>> the real problem for all of us is that we do not get the media exposure. with all due respect to the people if you categorize the number of minutes that hillary clinton appears and the number of minutes that all of us appear together she would vastly outweigh. >> hillary is going to be elected. we have to face reality. if i can get into a debate i think i can win. >> one-on-one i can beat hillary but i'm not included in the polls to be put on the tv. >> i have over 50,000 facebook likes, certainly had more than lincoln chaffe and jim web. >> i need a new job but i don't think i will be going to the white house. i am promoting this issue very much so. that is the whole purpose, to save the natural world to stop the destruction, vast extinction

of many species. >> you never know when lightning strikes but it is highly unlikely at this poirnt. >> i would like to throw my support behind bernie sanders in this campaign. >> if you don't vote for raymond muroes vote for bernie sanders sgmpt a. >> thank you for making this forum available to us all. >> i don't know how and when the new hampshire voters will see this debate but if they do see it then i think i have expressed myself properly. >> our thanks to griffin hammond and all of the 58 candidates. we'll be right back. right in m. the doctor put me on a bayer aspirin regimen. be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. go talk to your doctor. you're not indestructible anymore. wdo you insist on being called the taxonator? then you might be gearcentric. right now, buy any tax software and get a $100 service bundle for free!

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with humira, control is possible. another day another dollar which means you get to say who you think won? >> bernie sanders, the iowa poll, great ad, great optimistic closing message and the clinton folks don't have the frame on sanders. >> nothing bothers me more than

agreeing with you. tomorrow we have julianne moore. watch it. >> don't forget if you are watching us in washington you can listen to us on the radio. >> coming up "hardball" with chris matthews. >> big numbers in iowa. let's play "hardball"." >> good evening. welcome home out there to ted cruz. a new poll shows that donald trump has gotten his message across about where ted cruz is coming from. the new cnnorc poll has cruz to a halt in iowa down to 26% with trump pulling ahead to 37%,