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we got to tell people who think they may be lured by people this other guy is madder than she is. that feeled authentic and besides, these slogans are easier to say. i say that in no disrespect. i admire him.

>> that was so good. that is the new add from bernie sanders campaign. you saw a diverse crowd and the build up and the song kind of captures the whole thing. it's not angry. it's very hopeful. >> no, i tell you, there are adds come out usually ever four years and one really sticks out and maybe it's because of all the songs i've ever played from records to cassettes to ipods to

iphones at the top of the list. it's gone viral already. my phone exploded already. people said you have to see this add. you actually. >> i made you watch it. >> yeah. >> it's gotten more than a half million views. >> you were telling me about it. >> barnical sent it to me at 10:30. my husband woke me up. everyone was talking about it last night and i think, you know, that add and these hands add by ben carson are the two most powerful adds of the cycle because they're not about the politician. that's always the message. >> so interesting. >> john, i think that's what was so remarkable about the add yesterday. when you went back to barack obama eight years ago, it was about barack obama. he constantly talked about himself and it was more about

him and i'm not making it about him. i'm saying now we're in the age of trump. i think what was so remarkable about this add in 2016 is it was an add celebrating the crowd, the voters, the movement. >> the joy. >> the song linked a lot of people back to a time when they believed they could change the world. >> yeah. i slightly disagree about the obama thing. "yes we can "was a grass roots thing. there's this add that reminds me

much of the obama themes. the way the closing adds are playing out right now is it feels like 2008 all over again. no doubt bernie sanders is not barack obama. >> the polls went up yesterday considerably over hillary clinton in iowa. the dnc rushing to get another debate out there. this is not a guy who thinks he's 15 points behind and has to cut his opponent up. >> no, there's not. there's an extraordinary amount of confidence in the sanders campaign right now. if you talk to people in sander's world and clinton's world, what you hear from clinton's world is what's going on out there? what's happening in iowa? they don't trust what -- they

want to know what's going on because they don't feel like they get it. the sanders people are 100% confident. they believe they know what's going on in iowa and new hampshire and what's going on is they're winning. >> what's remarkable, we said it before. what republicans were wondering about six months ago with donald trump, democrats are starting to ask the same questions six months later. >> the clinton supporters, i think they're feeling a sharpness in their attacks. you get an image of bernie sanders hug a diverse ray of americans who love coming to see his rallies. david brock said he wasn't supportive of the add. he told the associated press it was a significant slide to the democratic base.

>> the sanders campaign responded saying quote, 25 years ago it was david brock, a mud slinging right wing extremist who tried to destroy anita hill. >> he wasn't the bestmessenger. >> every single time the message is hollow. >> talking about bernie sanders anger. >> beautiful. hopeful. >> i think in a long time. today we have john with us. former treasury secretary to be. morning joe economic analyst.

in iowa you have the political reporter and nbc analyst, robert costa. >> we're going to get to everything in a moment. we have a play jor blizzard headed toward washington d.c. some 86 million people are expected to be effected by this storm. thousands of flights cancelled, school cancelled. bill karens is tracking the storm and going to join us in a moment. we'll speak with d.c.'s mayor who had to apologize yesterday for the lack of readiness after one inch of snow fell two days ago. >> the big joke in washington d.c. is there's always the debate. is washington a northern town or southern town? and the debate ends every time there's 1 inch of snow. it's a southern town. they can't handle it. they're going to get 30 inches. >> even the president couldn't get back from andrews. >> it is a southern town.

>> also, this morning, joe, we're going to be speaking exclusively with rick schneider. his first live national interview on the water crisis. he's going to be right here on morning joe. now, to the new polls you were talking about out of iowa that shows sanders shooting to an eight point lead. a 26 point swing in his direction since last month. >> let's just stop right there. look at those numbers. sanders 51, clinton 43. sanders plus 15 and minus 11. hillary clinton. john, we'll go to you. it's a pretty stunning swing there. we don't know how because this is a caucus state, how it will play out. what's your take on this shocking poll? >> well, there are a number of issues that the clinton campaign

have raised with this poll. it's a small sample. i believe, if i'm reading it right from last night and reading the discourse, it's heavy on men. those factors could have kind of pushed the poll more this sander's favor than what's going on. i don't believe the sander's campaign believes they're up by eight in iowa. i think it's indicative they have momentum in iowa and it's where the dynamic of the race is where he's starting to edge ahead a little bit. i don't think it's eight points. he has the momentum there and gaining ground and she seems to be stalled. >> on the other side, the cnn poll came out in iowa which actually donald trump and ted cruz have been fighting for some time and i've been saying this over the past week or two, donald trump has been masterful putting ted cruz back on his

heels. trump ahead 37%. 26%. marco rubio 14. nobody else close. so nicole, forget about what you may think about whether you would vote for donald trump or not. i want to take you back to this campaign for a second and i'm going to ask you if you've ever, the last politician you worked with that had the instincts that donald trump had and i'm going to name three people. >> you're putting her in a terrible position. >> no, i'm not. no, i'm not. first, you had jeb bush who was a prohibited favorite. donald trump like a laser focussed on hitting them every day. low energy candidate. low energy candidate. it became a part of the political lexicon and you could not look at jeb bush without thinking he's a low energy candidate.

then ben carson goes to iowa and donald trump is ahead in 49 states. that's not good enough for him. remember what he did talking about the guy bragging about hitting his mother in the head. everybody thought it was a terrible speech but in real time it was a masterful speech. it looked like theater, it was absurd and all that did was underline how absurd ben carson, the central thing. >> no one else could. >> that's the second one. two masterful take downs on his opponents. ted cruz gets in his way and he sits back, sits back, sits back and then he drops the canadien thing. it's not like a virus that spreads early. it's like cku ddsu.

you have democrats talking about it, john mccain talking about it, conservative senators saying ted cruz needs to follow donald trump's advice and get it in junction. if he gets elected we may lose and then on top of that just as he's trying to get on top of that he drops the goldman and sachs story. ted cruz has been on the defensive for the first time in his political life and been on the defensive for over two weeks now. look at those numbers. that's a big set up. >> can i add one more? hillary clinton and obviously, bernie is doing great and running a very good campaign. those numbers also reflect the way trump legitimized questions and saw the story about dunn. i think trump has also suppressed hillary's numbers. >> i forget that. >> i would add a forth

politician in his body bag this week. >> i agree with that. he had an advantage in that bush was a low energy candidate. >> that's not true. of course, you'll cover him. >> a lot of the people i talk to when they see him on television. >> where does that list end? >> because you watch donald trump and you go well, he seems like a low energy candidate. >> cruz when he got in trouble had no friends. >> they were all in first place and then as nicole said, john, i forget probably the most effective counter punch and that was to hillary clinton. so put the clinton machine on their heels for weeks. the new york times is still writing stories about how hillary is losing younger women because of questions about how she treated women in the 1990s. i'm sorry, i can't think of another politician in our lifetime that has had the gut

instinct to destroy his opponents this way. >> well, there's no doubt donald trump has, he's a master of s h siops. he not only contends the attention of the press but he figures out the weak points and relentlessly goes after them until he has succeeded in every case and even the most confident of his opponents. joe, i just, there's just a new, i believe, a new historic first in this campaign. there's a new trump add. i just said it to alex which i think we're going to want to play. when i say it's historic, i believe this is the case of a negative donald trump add attacking ted cruz. i believe it's the first time trump has gone on television with a negative add in this campaign. i've not had a chance to air it

yet but i hope we get it on the show. >> alex, how quick can you turn it around? also, we need to talk about demi lavoto. bernie sanders was in wolfboro, new hampshire yesterday and hillary was hosting pop singer demi lavoto. >> look at these numbers. 54-16% on the economy. illegal immigration 51% to 23%. foreign policy it's split. social issues it's 29-18 on trump. overall, trump seen as the best chance to win the general election which is also remarkable considering what it looked like six months ago. it's not even close. iowa voters believe donald trump is the best set to win the general election.

bob dole agrees. more and more members of the republican establishment do now. trump packs the nearly identical margin on iowa republicans on whose the strongest leader. 47-27 to 11. let's go to bob costa. bob, we've been saying for some time if trump wins iowa he's going to run the table unless something extraordinary happens. tell me now. do the cruz and other campaigns believe trump has moved ahead? are they making excuses for the latest cnn poll? >> almost every campaign i check in with see a lot of movement here in iowa. cruz can weather iowa. everyone sees trump's attacks working on their eternal poll and the most striking thing is so many party leaders go to trump and say we're not going to endorse you but how can we build

a relationship? >> that is unbelievable. bob, obviously, you talked to a lot of these leaders who, i guess, probably openly hostile to trump over the last six months. >> six months ago they were the establishment that were suppose to take out trump. the economist tells me he's been off the trump tower. most of his friends in new york if it came down to trump or cruz it would be trump. trump called mitch mcconnell last year to build relationships. trump seen the nomination on the horizon and started to do the kind of things a nominee would do. even on the campaign trail the last few days he's speaking as a healer. this is before the voting began. >> steve, when i saw this poll yesterday, the cnn poll that

came out, it had bernie sanders by a good bit and donald trump by a good bit. it's a political earthquake. >> obviously, hillary clinton was so far in a way a favorite of her losing not one but two of the political primaries. bill clinton didn't win until 1992 until georgia. i don't think he won another one before that. i think she's powerful, organized and popular in the south. this is not what she was hoping for. >> some concerns among your democratic friends. >> there are some concerns among my democratic friends, sure. i don't think any of my democratic friends want sanders to be the nominee. when you see polls like this, it has to get you nervous. sometimes out of all that

justice in 2008 she didn't prevail, certainly losing iowa helped her get her game better and get her back on a winning streak. >> any talk you hear of other candidates like biden or kerry think about getting in? >> i hear talk from you. >> i said your democratic friends. >> no because i think most of them assume rightly or wrongly the time getting into the primaries have passed. when you get into the whole process you have to go through, i have not heard anybody thinking there's going to be another democrat in this ply mar -- primary. >> still ahead we're going to ask governor rick snyder about the water problem that's poisoning people in his state. plus the mayor of d.c.

mishandling the chance of snow. let's go straight to bill karens right now. >> we've had important changes overnight. new york city, for one, heavier snow for you. the storm shifted further to the north and also a starting time no washington d.c., we've moved that up from 5:00 to 6:00 to noon or 2:00 p.m. if you're in the d.c. area, get everything done early and get home before the storm. this shows where the most likely power out annals are. charlotte, north carolina all the way to d.c., roanoke and bristol. the storm is starting to intensify now. we have heavy snow. already 6 inches of snow fell if little rock. 6 inches in nashville and now starting to snow the areas of south carolina. overnight, blizzard warnings went up in new york city. now we have blizzard warnings over the d.c., baltimore, philly, all the way to new york city. that means wind gusts up to 60

miles an hour. that's going to be one of the legacies. joe, you have a question? >> yeah, i do. i'm wondering about new york city. it seems like the top of the storm hits new york city and if you're up in west chester or let's say connecticut, should you just stay up in connecticut or west chester? >> the further north you are, the better. >> what time should you get there? sorry. personal weather. >> you guys must be republicans. you're selfish. >> when should mika and nicole wallace leave for connecticut? >> connecticut looks like snow will be starting probably about mid-morning saturday and maybe until about saturday night. that's your window. >> mika. >> it's going to impact anywhere too, by the way. >> mika just said a brand for connecticut. >> selfish republicans.

i noticed this when my daughter was 12 she became very selfish and money grabbing. i said oh my god, i've got a republican. >> you know we call it personal responsibility in america. enses. and an early morning mode. and a partly sunny mode. and an outside... to clear inside mode. transitions® signature™ adaptive lenses... ...are more responsive than ever. so why settle for a lens with just one mode? experience life well lit®. ...upgrade your lenses to transitions® signature™. receiving a transitions® lenses certificate of authenticity is your only guarantee that you're getting the worlds number one recommended photochromic lens. ask for it. and register your lens online today.

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we're getting hit with a lot of adds. here is the new trump campaign add as john said. >> we haven't seen it yet. >> as john said it's historic because it's his first attack add. it's called clear difference. >> i'm donald trump and i approve this message. >> it sounded like you wanted the bill to pass. >> of course, i wanted the bill to pass. my amendment to pass. what my amendment did is take citizenship off the table. it doesn't mean that i supported the other aspects of the bill. >> i want immigration reform to pass. it allows those who are here illegally to come in off the

shadows. >> how do you square that circle? >> actually bret, it wouldn't happen. >> people want to take back their country and in a unique way. we don't have a country. people are pouring in and they're doing tremendous damage. if you look at the crime and the economy, we want to have boarders. to have a country, you need boarders. >> john, donald trump managed to find the worst, it was, literally ted cruz's worst moment of the campaign. the only time he was not sure footed. it was. it was a devastating interview because he couldn't explain his flip flop on illegal immigrat n immigration. i won't tell you what i think. what do you think of the add?

>> sadly, i can't see the visuals. i could only hear the audio of it. look, i think the most important thing about this add not being a able to judge it, donald trump has answered the question. is he willing to put significant resources behind republican opponents. the answer to that question is yes. this indicates the willingness to do that which changes a lot of dynamics going forward. that's the question. he has a lot of money and if he's willing to spend it to run adds like this, he becomes dangerous and poet nant. >> it hits on a weak point of ted cruz that he's a phony. he's mr. establishment and will take whatever position. he's envogued at the time and after the political winds shift so to does he.

>> and we've seen trump now go after senator cruz on goldman and sachs and his canadien birth. this is immigration. this is cruz's key issue. during the immigration fight he was trying to push forward an amendment but he was mr. anti amnesty. now trump is coming at one of cruz's perceived strengths. >> so we're going to get to c cruz's add. people are leaving they're not pouring in. the numbers show now more than ever we're losing people to go back to mexico. >> people are going both ways. it's way down. i want to go back to what john

said. running a real campaign could cost a billion dollars. he's a really estate guy. his money is tied up in projects. he's going to have to go out if he's the nominee and fight a normal fight. he's going to have to go out and raise money like everybody else. >> i think the question answered about this add is about donald trump's evolution as a candidate. i think there's a lot of talk about how he was naturally gifted in this message of winning but could he then button down and do the difficult things. these are precision moves. he's made the shrewdest moves of any politician in resent history. standing next to palin which was uncomfortable for him. the add which is a devastating blow. >> i want to talk to the other republican on the panel, i thought this was devastating.

>> let's see the answer. i'm sure it's just as devastating. >> my point is. >> to iowa voters, how devastating is that add? >> you listen to people who have been long cruz champions, his currency has been the talk radio crowds. this goes to the heart of their whole animated purpose for being on the air ending illegal immigration whether it's a crisis or not. the development to me is trump's sophistication as a candidate. >> cruz was not in favor of illegal immigration. >> that's running like a senator. >> it's the process to actually kill the play. >> it was a cynical play. cruz is the most cynical member of the senate and got caught. >> maybe his response will help. here it is. . a different add.

>> eminent domain. it made him rich like when he bulldozed the home of an elderly widow for a lip sooen parking lot at his casino. trump won't change the system. he's what's wrong with it. >> anybody think that's going to move anybody in iowa? >> no. this issue, this question was asked by bret many months ago and it's been out there and came out at a point when trump was on the rise. >> and bob, people that are voting for donald trump knows that he supported the domain aggressively and supported single payer health care and supported hillary clinton and gave money to the democrats left and right. this is already baked into the

cake. >> i think this add is fascinating. listen to the phrase cruz is using. imminent domain. we have to recognize that now. zblf bernie sanders says the campaign is not about him but the issues. you wouldn't know that. [burke] at farmers, we've seen almost everything,

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that was hillary clinton's new add out this morning. what did you think? >> i think it was a good add. i liked it. it was a 3:00 a.m. add. it was the newer version of what she ran against barack obama three years ago. i will say if i'm rating adds this morning, bernie first, trump second, hillary third and cruz fourth. i mean, they're good adds. the america add is just in another stratosphere. if i wanted a democrat with a good, strong competent leader

who can do the job on day one i would say she can win the election. >> just playing the cards she has. >> exactly. i think she played that cardwell in that add. >> joining us now from manchester, new hampshire, msnbc correspondent casey hunt. you talked with bernie sanders yesterday and it seems he's walking back on some of his statements. can you explain that? >> hey guys, yeah, this is the latest piece of evidence hillary clinton and bernie sanders are starting to get into it. he earlier this week was on msnbc and was asked about endorsements from day rights groups, the human rights campaign and planned parent hood. he said i'm fighting the political establishment and in many ways these groups are part of that establishment. hillary's campaign noticed really fast and hit him in a personal tweet and a lot of these organizations said hey,

we're not part of the establishment, we're fighting for people who had trouble fighting for his own rights. bernie sanders didn't try to clean it up immediately. it wasn't until i caught up with him yesterday we got an answer on it. >> what i said in response to a question about endorsements is that sometimes the grass roots are asking how does it happen if somebody has 100% voting record and doesn't get endorsed and sometimes the leadership may look at the world different than the grass roots. i know we're a week out of the election and the clinton people will try to spend these things. i am a fierce supporter of planned parent hood and gay rights in this country. >> and they're not part of the establishment? >> no, they're standing up and fighting the fights that have to be fought, okay. >> a week out from the election, the clinton people will try to

spend these things, he said. you know what guys, i think this argument over the establishment has turned in an interesting direction. after this, hillary clinton was out on cnn saying that bernie sanders is more established than she is because he's been in congress for 20 years and she was only a senator for eight. >> well, i'm not siding wi sigh you, casey. i heard what bernie sanders said last week and i got the point but then the clinton campaign, hillary and bill were scratching their faces saying it's strange what he says and they had these dog whistle lines to make him sound just a tad bit off where the point was there and they're just going for anything they can get. there's not a lot. they have a problem.

>> there's no many chances for them to split the vote. >> i was worried, why are people going he cannot win the nomination, he's a socialist? i don't understand why a democratic socialist with all the checks and balances in washington and the republican, why can't he be a leader? >> i can tell you the question was directed to me and i'll answer it. steve, i'll give you a shot. the fact is, his voting record,

i go back to 2008 wasn't that much different. >> did he have crazy ideas? >> his voting record wasn't that different from barack obama's. republicans are running around saying barack obama's records are more liberal than the socialist. when you look at hillary clinton attacking bernie sanders, she doesn't attack him as being too liberal. she attacks him as being too conservative on guns. she attacks him as being too conservative on allowing banks to get in the business of investments. all of her attacks all go saying he's too conservative and also saying that bernie sanders is not liberal enough on health care. >> harold ford was like social i was, socialist, socialist, socialist as if it was a -- >> to answer your question he's right where the democratic party

is. there's checks and balances and it would be no more dangerous more the state of this republican if barack obama were president of the united states or somebody on the right. >> he's not a socialist. his voting record is everything you said it was. i think the troublesome question for a democrat is he does want to break up the banks which many of us don't think is the right policy. he does want to have a single payer health insurance program which a number of those things would be hard. he does want to raise taxes by massive amounts in order to fund

this. >> but breaking up the banks, do you see that as a bad thing? i see that as a good thing. most of america sees that as a good thing. bank of america goes down tomorrow we're all on the hook for it. if j.p. morgan goes down tomorrow, the taxpayers again bail them out. if goldman and sachs goes down, we all bail them out. we think, the americans feel too big to fail has gotten bigger and i'm going to vote for the republican who says the same thing. i don't think that's a socialist. our banks are not as big in relative terms. number two, you're not going to break the banks down to the point where they're going to be effective. they're going to have to function in a new way. >> i think the checks and

balances in washington would be -- >> alex is ailing and we have to go to break. we'll be right back. alex, i want to break up the banks, alex wants to break this up. we'll let him. baili

bailiff. why is it a big deal you wore these? i love boots by the way. >> these are great boots, by the way. these are floor shined. >> i only wear them on weekends. >> yeah. >> nights mostly. >> so if you don't win the nomination, would you consider

being vice president? >> no. that's not what i'm thinking about. i either want to be like commissioner of the nfl which is more powerful than president sometimes. you can suspend people. >> yes, of course. but the president is obviously. >> that's my first choice. >> second is, i love this. you're a dreamer, man. this is fun. >> much rather be commissioner of the nfl than vice president. >> cute. >> that brought out something good. >> coming up, two elected officials, two major challenges. we're going to talk to republican governor rick snyder about the pois soned water in flint, michigan. a lot coming in the next few days. we'll be right back. he state the economy is growing,

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welcome back to morning joe. we're starting to see the snow pile up in a few areas. heaviest snow still looking near the d.c. area to roanoke, the mountains of virginia. now the snow totals have gotten worse by the total. now we've upped new york city to close to a foot of snow. even now southern coastal new england getting into the mix. we're going to watch you in

hartford and boston. high impact stuff. trenton, philadelphia, dover, baltimore, once we slide to the d.c. area, this is where we get hit historic. we don't have maps with numbers like that often. 31 inches of snow predicted. d.c. 21 inches of snow predicted. in the south, less snow in areas like charlotte. we're going to have a horrible ice storm. thousands without power by saturday afternoon. >> all right, bill. thank you. we're going to speak to the mayor of washington d.c. about all that straight ahead. >> two feet. >> two feet at least. i know, i've been monitoring the situation. all right. more new adds coming up. political adds and chuck todd will join us. we'll be right back. sometimes the present looked bright. sometimes romantic.

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the man i had the honor of introducing is not afraid to tell it like it is, he's bold, loves his country and firmly stands behind the second amendment. i'm not talking about my father,

okay. phil is not here. he had to cruise on back to louisiana. he's unfortunately, missing this event. >> the 2016 presidential race has divided the duck dynasty family. fim robert son endorsed ted cruz while his son endorsed donald trump last night. it's friday, january 22nd. with us on set morning joe economic analyst steve ratner. former communications director for george w. bush, nicole wallace. john heilman, and in des moines, iowa msnbc political analyst. host of mtp daily, chuck todd. >> i'm throwing this out there.

something just happened. let's see here. guys. chuck todd, do you have any reporting on you or heilman or costa or anybody getting disinvited by the republican national committee? i just got something that that's being thrown out there. >> that's what happened when they endorsed christie. >> bob, you've got a lot of good friends. they put out an against trump issue. >> a manifesto. >> front to back blasting donald trump and they were going to be co-sponsoring the debate. i've got jack fowler, again, a good friend of mine and yours who said he got a call from the

top g.o.p. official and was against trump issue. have you heard about this, bob, what can you tell us? >> no, i've been speaking of sources in the conservative movement for the last 10-12 hours. this happened late last night. the rnc reached out to jack fowler and said the against trump issue that comes out today from nr was across the line and nr was disinvited from hosting the debate that was suppose to be with cnn in a few weeks. you're seeing the conservative movement disinvited. the movement in e l, they're tr go after trump and take him out. >> seeming their a little late for the party.

you see them starting to line up there. it's at this point, national view is a voice in the wilderness. zwr if you're ted cruz you're upset about this. you have been working for the last 36 hours to make lemonade out of the lemons. donald trump, you want him cutting deals with shuck shumer and the establishment, this is why they're rallying around him. to be honest, now you've got, now trump can go out and say look at this. the establishment still trying to stop me. it's this establishment pointing to national reviews.

john, i read an article yesterday that said if trump wins iowa, then that's actually an establishment slit in half in washington d.c. it sounds like a party more united than ever. >> first of all, about the national review, there's nothing the national review could do more than help donald trump put out an issue like this. it helps him with his people. there's an increasing sense with the republicans. establishment and any establishment if trump wins iowa

and again, we can all right now see is the trojectory. cruz as been been losing altitu altitude. if trump wins iowa, his strength is unchanged. everyone assumes trump is going to win the new hampshire primary and the only question is whose going to come in second. i believe if he were to do that he would be unstopping.

>> i want immigration reform pass and allows those illegally to come out of the shadows. >> people want to take back their country and do it in a humane way. >> to enrich the fat cats that bankroll them like trump.

>> i think imminent domain is wonderful. >> it made him rich like when he cramerica lewded with the insiders to bulldoze the home of an elderly widow. >> he has no heart. >> trump won't change the system. he's what's wrong with it. >> nicole. compare the two adds. >> listen, the person with the momentum is always more capable of sort of delivering a decisive blow who the person at the moment is climbing uphill against their opponent. i remember when bret asked the question. it's sort of as mika described it earlier. it's baked in the cake.

we're 10 days out from voting. this move looks so desperate, it really risks the conservative media in a part of almost i rep reable manner and the opportunity the party has to expand their numbers. it's a stupid move at a stupid piece. >> it's not just that magazine. it's right wing radio who have gone all in from ted cruz. of course, they were against everybody. they've always been against everybody who won the nomination in 12. on those adds, the immigration issue thinks they understand it and then a domain is a little

harder. chuck todd, we've been saying for some time, you look at the iowa poll out that shows donald trump is head of ted cruz by 10-11 points. if we can get that up on the screen, that's great. over the past couple of weeks, it's hard to find a candidate that has been kept on his heels as much as ted cruz the past few weeks. when he's finished fighting that fight senator ron johnson saying he needs to go to court and see if he can be president of the

united states. suddenly, the goldman and sachs question comes up. he sores to a lead where not so long ago he was down by double digits. >> be careful with the cnn poll. i'll leave it at that. that's assuming a turnout in iowa that iowa has never seen ever on any level. >> so you don't trust the cnn poll? >> just be a little bit careful. i'm just saying it's clear where the race is right now but 11 points, like i said, just don't take that to the bank. when you're an outsider and you come under attack and you're the only person around that can defend yourself, ted cruz,

there's so other verifiers here to stand up and help him push back against trump a little bit. >> they've all been coming out, especially on this candidate issue which we all laughed about and then the majority leader, nancy, ron johnson, you name it, everybody seems to be coming out saying well, i don't know. >> the small conspiracy says the establishment says you know what, let's take cruz out now and have the idea we'll take cruz out now and eventually trump will implode and we'll get him out of the way. they've been thinking this. there's still more fear of cruz gaining traction and if you stop them in iowa you can never get traction. >> all right. we also have with the mayor of washington d.c. coming up in just a moment as we gauge this winter storm. there's the add on the sanders,

on the democratic side which i think is really making waves. i, it's getting criticism from the clinton campaign i find real really. >> it's one of the most effective, certainly one of the most effective adds and moving adds emotionally, quietly. i love it. i think it's one of the best political adds i've seen. it may be because america was one of my favorite songs. but the images that attaches to that beautiful song really shows the heart of the movement behind bernie sanders. watch.

it's not an image that's been trumped up. it's real and to have this crunched up guy at the podium smiling. >> he doesn't do that much. >> so john, there's been polls coming out of iowa showing hillary clinton behind. like chuck said, it's all about trojectory but where does that add tell you bernie sanders feels he's at in the campaign? >> the sanders campaign is incredibly confident where they stand where i am in new hampshire. they feel the race is moving their direction.

they're dubious about the gap they give sanders. i don't think either campaign denies privately sanders right now has a small lead in iowa and it's in his favor, not hers. there's something different going on in his entire message. >> what's difference is bernie has a movement going. it is a movement that's not a knock against hillary or anybody else. it's a political movement likes of which i don't think we've seen in sometime. we talk about the $27 per donor. even more remarkable grass roots effort than barack obama eight

years ago. before we get to hillary's add. you're in new hampshire. i think i seen a tweet in jonathan martin a few days ago. somebody i knew and respected and sort of took heart in saying they've talked to a clinton operative after the new hampshire poll saying they were pulling up stakes for the most part. don't expect to see hillary much in iowa. what are you hearing? >> yeah, look. i'm hearing exactly the same thing. the clinton campaign has been optimistic for a while. they have always thought iowa was the place they want today try to put a stake in sande sanders' heart. understanding it's going to be a nail biter, it's an all hands on deck effort in iowa. you're going to see a huge number of surrogates. both elected officials and

celebrities flooding the zone. >> we'll have her competence add coming up in a moment. we need to move to the blizzard putting nearly 80 million people at risk this weekend. a state of emergency has been declared in north carolina, virginia and maryland. in washington d.c., a light snow on wednesday left a glaze of ice on the streets leaving drivers stuck in grid lock for hours. there was'state of emergency from 3:00 p.m. to 6:00 a.m. sunday. so mayor, first of all, about the inch that fell that left such grid lock, how do you explain that? what happened and how do you give people confidence you can take on the storm that's coming? >> well, mika, we certainly have been preparing for this blizzard all week which is going to drop

a huge amount of snow on the district of columbia that we haven't seen in 90 years. i just yesterday declared a state of emergency for our city, put a snow emergency in place. we closed our schools today and i'm going to dismiss the government at noon. we've been pretreating our roads since yesterday and put the message out to our residents to please stay in. we're going to have incredible winds and a lot of snow probably the next several days and just people staying in will give our crews a chance to work. >> we said earlier, you never know whether washington is a northern or southern town until you get an inch of snow and we find it's a southern town. beyond that joke though, does washington d.c. have the same capabilities, do they have the same equipment, do they have the same facilities as say

philadelphia or new york who gets hit by snow more? are you guys able to withstand. >> especially with what happened this week. >> able to withstand two feet of snow without the city being shut down for a long time? >> what happened this week that hit the entire washington region was the clipper that came in that just quiet frankly out performed the forecast. we didn't get enough resources on it. even then, the way that storm came in, if we had gotten out early and enough resources, i'm not sure we would have had significantly better conditions. even then i don't think that our team performed a level that i expected and others expected. we have very much said that we can and will do better for the storm. even with that, this is a historic storm so we are putting all our resources at it and yes,

to your question, joe, we have extraordinary events like this, we go out and contract additi additional equipment which we have done. >> thank you very, very much. good luck. >> chuck todd, hillary clinton also put out an add far different from the add that bernie sanders did on her competence and i thought it was an effect evidence add for what she was trying to do but it was obviously, it's kind of hard to compare to what bernie sanders put up and i saw just enough for them to get the add ready for me. roll it. >> roll it. >> the world a president has to

grapple with. sometimes you can't even imagine. that's the job and she's prepared for it like no other. a tireless secretary of state standing up against the abuse evidence wom busive women and girls. leading a diplomacy that keeps us out of war. the presidency is the toughest job in the world and she's one leader who has what it takes to get every part of the job done. >> chuck, nicole and i were watching, they like the add. a little 2008. it's a good solid add and if you want competence and somebody that's been there before and if you want somebody whose a moderate and a steady hand which by the way, it's one of the reasons i loved ike so much and he's one of my heroes is eight years of peace and prosperity. a lot better than excitement and chaos. we liked it but we're republicans. we don't gnatter. you just sense that bernie's

going to move a lot more hearts and minds and feets and voters. >> you said it. what is today? january 22nd. that was an interesting october 22nd tv add. i feel like that almost was a general election message. when you're making the case, when that's your head case to the democratic electorate and hey, who can you imagine in the job and who can you imagine as a nominee fighting to sort of get that job at that end, that was a commander and chief add. it's the contrast you hope to draw. i think eventually, that message is going to work for her in the large states as we move on and go to florida and ohio and places like this. both iowa and new hampshire are conditioned to dream. i don't know how else to put it. the base on the left and the base on the right. they've been conditioned over the years because of the first

states and see so many candidates to say don't just settle. follow your heart and follow your conservative heart and your progressive heart. there's a reason the base candidates can pop in iowa. that's what they're dreaming about in this point in time during the campaign. they're being idea list rancic. >> thank you so much. who do you have coming up on meet the press this weekend? >> we start with hillary clinton. i believe we'll have mr. trump as well. there you go. we'll start with those two and figure it out. >> go from there. >> and we'll have the storm. so that will be. >> be careful. >> an added hurdle we're adding in here. we have a fleet of suvs. >> i have to say those of us in new york were wondering why we're covering the snowstorm because it's not suppose to hit new york. i'm shocked at how much weather you're devoting. >> chuck always complains that

we treat new york like it's the center of the universe only because, it is. have fun down there in your little town of d.c. >> still ahead on morning joe, governor rick snyder of michigan joins us live and we'll ask him how he's going to restore safe water to the community of clint and whether it's shouldering the blame. tom brokaw standing by as well. you're watching morning joe. we'll be right back. the future belongs to the fast. and to help you accelerate, we've created a new company... one totally focused on what's next for your business. the true partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. accelerating innovation. accelerating transformation.

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sports freaks. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. they're attacking you because they can't afford for the status quo to go. otherwise, the gravy train stops and they can't keep slurping from it. the g.o.p. machine all the sudden they're saying we're not

red enough. we're not conservative enough. i say what in the world do they know about conservatism. they're telling us we need to just chill. i say they're stomping on our neck and telling us just chill. no, we won't chill. in fact, it's time to drill baby drill down on what's going on and hold them accountable. >> joining us now, nbc news special correspondent tom brokaw. i want to read to back up the points you're going to make. peggy newman wrote in the wall street journal. sarah palin's endorsement of donald trump was less speech than podium jazz scat. her endorsement is said to help in iowa but in the long run it's probably a wash. at this point she sort of helps you with people who already like you and hurts you with people

who already don't. i wonder if mr. trump's people are already telling her thanks, you've done exactly what we wanted and you can go home now. what trump really needs is not be endorsed by palin but by political figure with stature. trump has a reputation for intellectual carelessness. it's all political joyriding. her presence does nothing to knock the criticism down. in fact, it underscores it. >> he's playing the short game in iowa. how does he get the nomination downstream? sarah palin rubs people the wrong way across a lot of the country. she has a con stitch juan sis and i think that work in iowa. i was watching that this morning. what do you think the temperature of john mccain is when he watches that?

he took her and makes her a national figure. she's giving those guys speeches and she's gone now to work for the man who says that john mccain is not a hero. >> not a warrior. you know what john mccain is doing, he's laughing at donald trump having to look up there and squirmish and she would say at sarah palin because i had people close to mccain saying they recognize that look in trump's eyes and it's the horror he's giving up the microphone. >> and there's not an order in policy in that. it was jazz cat as they described it. she was doing what she does. she goes out there and tries to light up the audience in front of her. it's worked well for her in terms of making the money. there was a wonderful moment on the 40th anniversary of saturday

night live and they invited sarah palin to be there and the set up was she stood up when jerry seinfeld was on the stage and she said what do you think michaels would pay if i were to run for president? he said i think we could negotiate a good figure. she turned to donald trump and said what if we ran as a ticket? he said there's no figure high enough. >> we don't think we'll see that ticket but saw something close the other night. it's for trump now iowa, iowa, iowa. he's way ahead in the south carolina primaries. almost at 50% in florida. do you think it is an all in strategy, a kitchen sink strategy in iowa. >> he's got to shortchange ted

cruz and seems to have him back on his heals at this point. now bringing in palin to stand up beside him. i never go there. other things can happen. >> you got to get the first vote. like you said in 2008, wait for the voters. >> it's also like i've said too many times along the way. we find out more about him. he responds in a way that will stun people they'. they're hoping one of the republicans will survive and three goes away. that one inherits their votes and that person becomes a contender against cruz and donald trump. >> can you imagine massachusetts

not winning? >> no, i can't. >> also, what i don't know is how deep the commission is. they love having him out there kicking the establishment in the fanny and then they go to the polls and continue on with that. do they go to the polls at all? these are the things we don't know. he's certainly a perfect example. no one expected him to do as well. >> of course, he thinks the opposite. he thinks more are going to vote for him and more are going to come out than usual because he's the donald. >> i don't know. >> let me ask you though, tom. have you because i was looking at trump when he was in my own town of pennsylvania and i saw the shots and 13, 14,000 people in the nose bleed looking down at this little dot and i went

back to, i remember reagan when he ran was there in 79. i remember my dad coming home and saying i just met the next president of the united states but he had like 200 people there. ray dw reagan in the general election didn't have those campaigns. >> people weren't happy when reagan was running. i don't remember a time they were as unhappy as right now. you're going to have the mayor of michigan on in a moment and that's another failure. i was with the government of relations and he's dismayed because government doesn't work at any level. that's what's fuelling so much of what's going on. the other change is you can light up a crowd now because of social media and the 24/7 play,

the aura involved. people feel they want to be a part of that. there's also the factor we have become a celebrity of oriented society. how do you explain the kardashia kardashians? they're known for being known. now donald trump is the biggest celebrity we got going at the moment and people are saying i want a piece of that. having said all that, you got to give him credit because those big appearances don't happen by accident. he also has a great team out there putting all that together. >> can you stay with us for the next block? we're going to bring in governor. coming up, resignations won't bring clean water to the people of flint who are still scrounging as the front page of the wall street journal says. michigan governor rick snyder joins us next for an exclusive interview right here on morning joe.

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up next, the political fallout from the water crisis in flint, michigan continues. we are joined by governor rick snyder promising to put things right. a morning joe exclusive next. t . and an early morning mode. and a partly sunny mode. and an outside... to clear inside mode. transitions® signature™ adaptive lenses... ...are more responsive than ever. so why settle for a lens with just one mode? experience life well lit®. ...upgrade your lenses to transitions® signature™.

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administrator. epa chief said she accepted the resignation effective next month to ensure the office on solely restoring flint's drinking water. they also issued an emergency order expanding federal oversite over the clean up process with continuing delays and lack of transparency. one person has been pretty transit parent joining us from ann arbor, michigan, rick snyder. thank you for being on the show this morning. we have abunch of hard questions for you. i'll start with this. obviously, in 2014, the reporting has been that the gm plant stopped using the flint water because it was corroding the auto parts. i guess the question everyone is asking is how then would it still be continued to be used in the sinks and pots and pans and water glasses of the people of flint and how would you characterize this case, a case of stupidity or corruption? what happened? >> yeah, well the gm is a

different situation. it didn't deal with led at all. it dealt with chlorine and other questions about the paint process and such. going to your bigger question, there are major failures here and if you look at it, people are being much too technical, not having the culture of asking the common sense questions and then the tone of how things were done. there are a number of failures there, these people, this was a terrible tragedy that these people worked for me and it was my responsibility of accepting the responsibility. i've been focussing on that very diligently since last october. >> when did you first find out there was lead in the drinking water in michigan? >> that's the problem. we had outside people raising the question that people in two departments didn't see the issue. they came back and said we don't agree with them. we believe we're okay.

when it came to light their conclusions were inaccurate, that was september 21st and we took action on october 2nd. here's activities, get a blood tests, here's water tests and let's reconnect the detroit water system. we've been pursuing these. it's important we take care of the people of flint. >> you have two agencies in the state of michigan designed to protect the environmental health of the people of michigan saying nothing to see here, move along. you've got the environmental protection agency in washington d.c. that actually has somebody on their staff that does studies, two studies, i believe, that says there's lead in the water and then the environmental protection agency fore bids those studies from going public. why do we have three

environmental agencies basically saying see no evil, hear no evil, do no evil? >> that's a huge bureaucratic problem and it's part of the problem with culture and government. there's a locality of wonderful people in government. >> you did appoint these two environmental bureaucrats in michigan, didn't you? >> let me put it in perspective. the department people weren't, the heads were not being given the right information by the quote unquote experts. i use that word with great trial and tribulation because they were considered experts in terms of their background. these were career civil servants. strong science, medical backgrounds in terms of their research. as a practical matter when you look at it today and look at their conclusions, i wouldn't call them experts anymore. >> going forward, how do you rearrange the safe on environmental and health issues so you don't have a repeat of that in other areas or

infectious diseases? you need to have a bottom to top up reformation of the early detection procedures and the people in charge of that? >> absolutely, tom. i want to bring in third party experts because this is a violation of the trust of the people of flint and the state of michigan. that's a terrible thing. people have been harmed. this is something we don't consider just what one person did. let's look at the entire background of how people are operating. let's get in there and rebuild a culture that understands common sense needs to be part of it, taking care of our citizens need to be part of it. >> governor, you're shouldering a lot of this and we've had you on the show a number of times. we think you're a goodman. i'm going to read to you from the new york times this morning, it's pretty sering. i'm going to ask you to respond. if flint were rich and mostly white, would michigan state

government responded more quickly to complaints about a lead polluted water? is this a case of racism? >> absolutely not. flint is a place i've been devoted to helping. look at all the work we've done in detroit. several cities. i've made a focussed effort since before i started in office to say we need to work hard to help people that have the greatest need. we've done a lot in terms of programs there to help the structurally employed to get work and in terms of public safety, we've done a lot. healthy michigan was a whole medicaid expansion. those people getting the greatest benefit are the places in flint and such because they deserve better medical care. these are actions we've taken. what makes you so angry about this situation is you have a hand full of quote unquote experts that were -- that made terrible decisions. they work for me and i accept

the responsibility and we're going to fix this problem. >> governor, speaking of detroit, you have another big problem on your hands, not a health problem but great importance which is the detroit school system that's on the verge of collapse. way over crowded classes and teachers that don't want to teach, no money and a question whether the state has done enough to help detroit in general and in this case whether the state has done enough to help the detroit school system. >> yes, steeve, i appreciate th question. i think you're familiar with the work we've done. last year i proposed that and still working to essentially make a 7 hu$700 million investm to help with the debt of the schools. the issue there is i need legislative support and i've asked the legislature to do that and i want to get that done

before court intervention. >> i want to ask you generally because we're talking about what happened in flint, the decision that was made to save money because michigan is so strapped. we talked again, a money problem. we've seen what happened happened in detroit the last 30 years. it's a city that has trouble even keeping its streetlights on. is detroit, the state of michigan, not to sound like john lindsay, but is it an ungovernable state? >> absolutely not. we've made tremendous progress statewide. detroit is one of the graeflt stories in the country. you're citing old facts. i invite you to advice the and see it. the blight is going down, trash is picked up, public safety is improving. unfortunately we have this terrible tragedy because of some

career civil service experts causing trouble there. we're going to adoctodress that get that behind us. because people have been harmed. children have been harmed that could last for years and years. >> who authorized the switch for the city of flint to specific buying water from detroit? was it the emergency manager at the time? >> in terms of the change itself, it was a broader effort in terms of saying they wanted to change their water system for a different water authority. it was a 7-1 vote to leave the city water system. >> that was decision to save money, right, governor? >> again, it would also reduce our cost in some ways and they believe they wanted their independence and it was a

countywide decision. >> we've been seeing it here. this was a decision made by local officials, county officials, state officials. you had the federal environmental protection agency having evidence that they buried. of course somebody's lost their jobs because of it. >> when are the people are flint going to have water to drink? >> that's the best question to finish with. >> short term we're making sure they have bottled water and filters. we visited over 30,000 homes to work on the short term. longer term we want the water out of the tap to be good. we want to make sure we're careful extensive testing will be done. we need outside experts, the epa, the city, the county all of us need to be involved in that.

i understand why the citizens of flint have high skepticism in the government. >> are you going to get that? >> we are. we're in the process of getting that now. >> why wouldn't you just in the short run, why wouldn't the people of flint, michigan, just change back to the detroit water supply? >> we did. but one of the issues is because of the nature of the lack of corrosive controls, there's the issue of the effect on the pipes, just like it is around the country. >> we always appreciate you coming to us. >> i love detroit. >> we have been going there for years and we've been surprised by a lot of progress.

governor, thank you so much. >> we'll be right back with more "morning joe." ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪

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up next, a monster winter storm is bearing down on the east coast right now. bill karins is tracking the blizzard. plus a new round of political ads out this morning. bernie sanders gets raive revies while donald trump airs his

first attack ad. >> i want those who are here illegally to come in out of the shadows. >> that amendment would have allowed undocumented immigrants to stay in the u.s. and -- >> actually, brad, it wouldn't have. >> we'll go live to the stock exchange where wall street is looking to rally. is your head so congested it's ready to explode?

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we got to tell people who

think this may be lured by people this other guy's madder than she is. and that feels authentic. and besides, these slogans areies why aare easier to say. i say that with no disrespect. i admire that. ♪ i've got some reals state h ee in my bag. counting the cars on the new

jersey turnpike ♪ ♪ they've all come to look for america ♪ ♪ all come to look for america >> that was so good. that is the new ad from bernie sanders' campaign. you saw a really diverse crowd and the you saw the buildup and the song kind of captures the whole thing. it's certainly not angry. it's very hopeful. >> there are ads that come out usually every four years and one really sticks out and maybe it's because of all the songs i've ever played from, you know, records to cassettes to ipods to iphones, that's at the top of the list but it's gone viral already. people said you have to see this ad. you -- >> i made you watch it.

>> you were telling me about it. >> my husband woke me up because he had seen it on the internet but when i was up, barnicle said up got to google this ad. >> i think that at and then the these hands ad by ben carson -- because it's not about the politician. >> i think that's what was so april ms.ing about the ad yesterday. when you went back to the ad about barack obama, he constantly talked about himself. it was more about him. i'm not making it about him. i'm saying now we're in the age of trump. i think what was so remarkable about this ad in 2016 is it was an ad celebrating the crowds, the voters --

>> the movement. >> the movement. >> the country. >> the joy. >> and of course the song linked a lot of people back to a time when they believed that they could change the world. >> joe, i slightly disagree about the obama thing. i think "yes, we can" was a volcker focused, grass roots campaign for the obama thing. ism thought the interesting thing was the ad, the hillary clinton ad, focusing on her experience, the ready for day oneness, pictures of her where the osama bin laden deela bin ls made. >> it has actually come to the

time when bernie sanders in a poll released yesterday is up considerably over hillary clinton in iowa. hillary clinton and the dnc panicking and rushing to get another debate out there. this is not a guy who thinks he's 15 points behind and has to cut his opponent up, is, it john? >> no, it's not. there's an extraordinary amount of confidence in the sanders campaign right now. it you tack to people in sanders' world and in clinton's world. what up hear in clinton's world is what's going on out there? what are you seeing? they don't trust what they are -- they want to know what's going on because they don't feel like this got it. the sanders people may be 100% confident. what's going on is they're winning. >> what said before what the

republicans were wondering about six months ago with donald trump that they're accepting, people are starting to feel the same about bernie sanders. >> as you see images of bernie sanders hugging a diverse array of americans who just love coming to see his rallies, david brock said the ad was a, "significant slight to the democratic base." this a guy who voted along with the democratic caucus 97% of the time in his career and added "black lives don't matter much to bernie sanders ." that's when he took from the ad?

>> they said, "25 years ago it was brock, a mud-slinging, right-wing extremist who tried to destroy anita hill." >> the messages are just hollow. >> and you have bill clinton talking about bernie sanders' anger when you have one of the most hopeful ads we've seen in a long time. we have our secretary to be steve rattner, former communication director for george w. bush nicole wallace and political reporter for "the washington post" and msnbc analyst robert costa. >> now to the new polls that show a 26-point in bernie

sanders' numbers since last month. >> sanders plus 15 and minus 11, hillary clinton. john heilemann, we'll go to you. it's a prilt -- pretty stunning swing there. what's your take on this shocking poll? >> well, look, there a number of issues that the clinton campaign i think justifiably have raised with this poll. it's a pretty small sample. i believe if i'm reading it right from last night and reading some of the discourse about it, it's a little built heavy on men. so both of those factors could have pushed the poll more in sanders' favor than what's going on. i don't think the sanders campaign thinks they're up by 8 in iowa. the dynamic of this race is he

is starts to edge ahead a little bit. like i said, i don't think it's 8 points but each has the momentum there, is gaining ground and she seems to be stalled. >> on the republican side, the cnn poll came out on the republican side in iowa, which actually donald trump and ted cruz have been fighting for some time, and i've been saying this oaf the past week or two that donald trump has been absolute lip masterful, masterful putting ted cruz back on his heels, trump ahead 37% -- >> a little dastardly, too. >> nobody else even close. so, nicole, forget about what you may think about whether you'd vote for donald trump or not, i want to take you back to this campaign for a second and ie

i'm going to ask you the last three people -- >> europe pyou're putting her i terrible position. >> no, i'm not. >> you have jeb bush, donald trump hit him every day, low energy candidate. and you could not look at jeb bush without thinking low energy candidate. then do you remember what he did talking about the guy bragging about hitting his mother in the head? everybody thought that was a terrible speech, i said in realtime it was a masterful speech with a belt buckle because it looked like theater, it looked absurd. all this did was underline how

absurd -- sos that the second one. two masterful takedowns of opponents. ted cruz gets in his way and his sits back, sits back, sits back and then who drops the canadian thing. it's not like a virus that spread slowly, it's like for two weeks you've had majority leads are in the senate talking about it, former speakers of the house talking about it -- >> war heros. >> john mccain talking about it. conservative senators saying ted cruz needs to follow donald trump's advice and go get an injunction because if he gets elected, he may lose. and then on top of that he drops

the goldman sachs stories. ted cruz has been on lts defensive for two weeks now. >> i would add hillary clinton. and obviously bernie is doing great and running a very good campaign but those numbers also reflect the way trump legitimized questions. i think trump has surpassed hillary as numbers. >> i would agree of all of that. of course he had an advantage in that bush was a low had much energy candidate. >> that's not true. reporters who cover him don't say that in. >> a lot of the people i talk to him when they see him on television. >> because you watch donald trump. you go, well, he seems like a low-energy candidate. >> and carson doesn't really

qualify and cruz -- >> i'm saying they were all in first place. and probably the most effective counterpunch was to hillary clinton, so put the clinton machine back on their heels for weeks, the "new york times" is still writing stories about how hillary is losing younger women because of questions about how she treated women in the 19/90s. i'm sorry, i can't think of another politician in our lifetime who has had the gut instibt to destroy his o pon bts this with way. >> there's no doubt he is a master of sci-ops. he just figures out the weak points in his opponents and just bores in on m -- still ahead,

i'm going to get drunk on the set and mika is going to wear even higher heels and we're going to sit around and smoke a lot. >> futures of spiking um this morning but signs of weakness as a global oil giant is set to lay off thousands. but firstbill karins -- >> he's about to get laid off. >> that would be bad timing right now, wouldn't it? our storm has begun. eventually it will become a blizzard during the day tomorrow. we've had six inches of snow in

little rock, freezing rain is breaking up through the carolina. and the stripe of through through kentucky and pushing through yafrs of virginia. the highest impact will be late tonight. blizzard stories for 29 million people, long island, new york city, society down it philly . p that's a lot of people. winter storm warnings, this the biggest coverage you'll get. the jackpot areas are still going to be the d.c. area, baltimore west towards the mountains of the central archlaich yian archlaichians. new york, still a chance of a foot and a half of snow. now we've added some of southern

new england to an even plowable snow. possibility here of 25 inches of snow. the other story is the snow we'll kentucky. this is a half an inch of ice possible between colombia and sharr loot. that will be our big story as we go throughout the next couple days. right now roanoke, virginia is one of them. it's picking up in intensity and the winds will start blowing that snow around later on tonight. we'll be right back. ♪ people need the cover of another perfect ♪ whole communities are living on mars and solar satellites provide earth with unlimited clean power. in less than a century, boeing took the world from seaplanes to space planes, across the universe and beyond.

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sofl we're getting hilt with a lot of ads this morning. here is the new trumple campaign ad called clear difference. >> i'm donald trump. i approve this message. >> sounded like you wanted the bill to pass. >> of course i wanted the bill to pass. my amendment to pass. what my amendment did is take citizenship och the table -- >> you said the bill. >> it doesn't mean that i supported the other aspects of the bill. >> i want immigration reform to pass and that allows those who are here illegally to come in out of the shadows. >> that amendment would have april loud undocumented immigrants to obtain in the u.s. permanently and attain legal status. >> actually, brad, it wouldn't have. >> we have to have a country. people are pouring in.

theer p they're do the tremendous damage. to have a country, you have to have borders. we don't have borders right now. >> john heilemann, donald trump managed to find literally ted cruz's worst moment the entire campaign, the only time he was not sure had much footed. and it was, it was a devastating what do you think of that? >> sadly i can't see the visuals and i couldn't get it on my phone. i could only hear the audio of it. i think the most important thing about this ad is the fact this donald trump has now answered the question that everyone asked for an entire year.

this indicates the willingness to do that, which changes a lot of dynamics going forward. that's been the big question. he's got a lot of money and he's willing to spend it to run ads like this, he becomes all the more dangerous and potentially pout en. >> this was a guy who was mr. saab and then after the political wind shift, so, too, does he. >> and we've seen trump now go after senator cruz on goldman sachs and now this is the third trump that trump's mounting a about thele. this is cruz's key issue during 2013. but he was mr. anti-le and now

he's coming after one of his perceived strengths. >> the data actually the actual numbers show now more than ever we are losing people to go back to mexico. >> people are going both ways the fact is the numbers were way down. i want to go to one thingion heilemann said about donald trump for the first i'm because running a real campaign, if he has to, could cost a billion dollars. dm is a real isest state guy he's had if he's the nominee and if he gts to the end of the primaries and himself to fight a

normal fight, he'll have to raise money like everybody else. >> i think the question in this add is about dpt's revolution as an advocate. could who then do the difficult. >> this ad is a devastating blow zoup want to talk to the other republican on the panel. that was my impression. i thought this was a devastating ad. dwl i'm sure just you listen to ann koulter and all theme ef this goes to the whole part of their and mating purpose for being on. air, ending immigration, wlp

it's still a crisis or not. the development to me is trump's sophistication. >> i agree with all of that but cruz was not in favor of any kind of immigration, right? >> and it's a sinister play. >> cruz is the most cynical member of the. >> and he got caught. >> well, maybe he response will -- >> help? >> yeah. here did is. cruz, it's a different ad but here he is. >> eminent domain, fancy term follow politicians seizing private property to enjoe sw kr sw made him rich. about -- trump won't change the

system, he's wros p what's wrong with it. >> this question has been asked many, many times. it's been out there. it sort of came out when trump is on the rise. it isn't a new piece of information. >> bob costa, people voting for dm i mean, this is already baked into the cake. >> i think this ad is fascinating. eminent domain, this is a message to the conservative movement that cruz is one of them and donald trump is not. it s cou its could. >> they're saying trump is not one of us and we have to recognize that right now.

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we have a disagreement in

the party about health care. now look, it was called hillary care before it was called obama care. >> we're not just pick a president. we're also choosing a commander in chief. i'm the only candidate on either side with the experience and judgment to keep us safe at home and strong in the world. now senator sanders doesn't talk much about foreign policy but when he does, it raises concerns because sometimes it can sound like he really hasn't thought it through. for example, he suggested we invite iranian troops into syria. that is like asking the arsonist to be the firefighter. as bad as things are in syria, and they are, more iranian troops are only going to make it worse. >> that was hillary clinton last night in iowa trying to put some daylight between herself and bernie sanders. she also cam pinned with pop star demi lovato.

meanwhile bernie sanders campaigned -- o. >> although they needed money, bill was raking in enough that hillary didn't have to did it, rendell said. to people who earned $200,000 in seven years, it looks ridiculous. that from ed rendell. >> austin, we have to just say the clintons were worth about $100 million, she was gotting pa -- getting paid $225,000 for a speech at goldman sacs, fidelity, why? >> look, i don't know anything about it. >> you know the facts? >> i know the facts with you i don't know -- a lot of people

when they get out of government give a lot of speeches like bill clinton did. they're going to bring it up. i don't think that's the issue. this is largely coming up now. the problems in iowa and the problems in new hampshire havec. i think it's going to be a long slog. it's a different environment than the general election for sure and they take it very seriously, the people in iowa take it very seriously but they also -- their issues, a guy that's kind of a movement candidate like bernie tend to did better in the polls. >> let me ask you about the markets. they're getting battered here. oil obviously flat lined.

wept went up a little bit yesterday, it will probably go down soon. the market is glutted. what do the next few months look like? >> i don't think they look that great in the near term. i think the rest of the world -- we now know china slowed do you certainly more than what they -- what they're willing to admit but i think worse even than we think that it has been. >> that was something you were worried about a couple of days ago, steve, that the markets here are trying to tell bus abot something there. >> i think it's trying to tell us something globally as well. the market is trying to tell you -- >> and what they're trying to do in china is destroy the information. don't let anybody see it. if the stock market plunges, then buy stocks, have the government buy stocks.

nobody covers up numbers that look good. i think that's going to complicate the path for the democrats. you know, if the economy softens, weakens as we go through 2016, it's going to be a tough environment. >> let's bring in cnbc's sara eisen. how does this morning look after the role arol roller coaster we? >> we're see being oil prices rising again. there are two big questions right now on wall street. number one, what is the stock market telling us about the economy? are we heading into a resgs? overwhelmingly wall street economists say no in the u.s.

we're still buying cars, still buying homes, still creating jobs. as long as that continues, we should be okay. the other factor here is o oil. as the "new york times" reit rates, low oil prices are not bringing economic gains. and slchlumberger is cutting jobs. >> sara, thanks so much. we greatly appreciate it. have a safe weekend in the snow. steve rattner, i saw oil analysts about two, three weeks ago saying we always assumed when we saw oil prices dropped,

it would hurt in the short term. i started reading the consumer bounce is not anywhere near where we expected. >> consumers have decided they'd rather save that gasoline bonus rather than spend it. >> you look at how much of a role the economy plays for votes are at the ballot box. >> we can look at it a few different waves. the first way is by looking at the stock market. there's research done that shows when the stock market falls three months before the election, more often than not the incumbent partyle loses the election. this has about an 86 success rate going back to 1928 in predict hog is going is to win, who is going to lose. it's only been wrong three

times, in 19506, in 1968 and in 1980. up could argue 1968 and 1980 were pretty unusual elections. another way to look at it, a bunch of economists o have tried to run mod and he uses economic inputs both over the period of the previous administration as well as in the period right before the election. if you look at when the most likely scenario is for this year in terms of gp dp growth being relatively weak at 2 hadn't 1%, terms of infloog g flags being low and in the case of obama's presidency -- only should get about 45.8% of the vo, in other

words a blood bath for the democratic side. this model has only p also been wrong three times. one was the last election of romney. and then there's a third way to look at this, a professor at emory university in atlanta has combined political and economic inputs. one, it's we've assumed here 50%, which is a little higher than it is today. >> and 2.had 4/for many people like change. they get tired of incumbents. by his math the democrats should get about 48.7%, just under 50%, all though he cautions that if you have a trump or cruz in the race, who knows what will

happen. >>what about bloomberg? will check out? >> would that be awkward for you? >> would what be awkward jump -- >> everything? >> everything would be awkward. >> that is so awkward. >> let's save that for the 9:15 block. >> that would be awkward! up know! that would be horrible, wouldn't it. >> egotting back to the business at happened, what this tells you with the economy being weak -- don't let him change the topic. morning would go with hadry and the steve would go with the mayor. . up look at these charts -- they're fascinating only three

times wrong. >> i think that's true and i think people are not -- we always have an ourselves focus and the rest of the word is really on fire and in places that aren't on fire it's because they already burned down. if you look at europe, that's seen as the bright spot. we've just gone through multiple crises in europe. and i don't know what steve thinks. ei this had it. >> i you this the kme is what do you think. >> i think it's not great for the incumbent party. >> or incumbent names. >>nd i think youy that fueling that they're singing in the

focus groups. i. >> i'm going with trum or and s andersle debated against each other. >> got it. >> but they obviously picked up a couple of rhetorical tips from each other. >>ism know. the world is on fire. >> the world is on fire. austin joe said that was the herbalife a had are. >> steve? interesting. that's all i'm going to say. because i feel fchlks plus a

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ate terror attack in somali has left 20 people dead. al shabaab, which has links to al qaeda, is claiming responsibility. a suicide bomber rammed into the gates of the hotel.

north korean state media reports that authorities detained a student from virginia. reports say he was under investigation for allegedly plotting to undermine the north korean government. the u.s. state department has yet to comment. >> this morning two of the americans freed by iran in a prisoner exchange are back on american soil. former u.s. marine amir hekmati arrived in the united states. look at that. >> and john kerry spoke about

nuclear issues zip c. >> rightle now we are not seeing the early delivery of funds going to that kind of endeavor but i'm sure at what point it will. >> the wall street journal says "$1.7 billion it to iran raises questions of ransom." >>this is what a top iranian

official said yesterday. april cording to the "wall street journal," taking this much money back is in return for the realso a of the american spies and doesn't have to talk with the talks. we must grow stronger and stronger every day. officials in at ttehran refused comment. >> parallel processes. >> apparently they were a prt of the deal. >> according to an iranian official. >> and the iranian government refused to deny it. >> we'll be right back with another check of the income being blizzard. >> it's good question to ask, even though some bloggers might

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if you nominate ted cruz and trump you get the same outcome. >> we are still calling for two

feet of snow, 60 mile-per-hour winds. we're going to see snow drifts in washington, d.c. six feet tall? >> no, stop it. are you serious? >> that's like in maine or the midwest. those are the live pictures coming out of areas of virginia. d.c. looks like around noon to 2:00 is when it begins. it won't end until late saturday night. people on sunday at lest -- least have day to clean up. i would say maybe a million or so people without power. no one is going to be driving. >> mom and dad -- >> what is the deal? >> mika's been talking to her mom and dad. >> they opted to stay with the blizzard instead of going with you? >> yes. they think they need to pro tte

the homestead. >> what did you learn? >> i learned who demi low vvato, she does exist. >> all right. if it's way too early, it's time for "morning joe." in the case of me, thank you for your patience. i know sometimes i make you want to smash your head against the wall -- >> no, no -- >> smash your mug -- >> no, no. tally focused on tally focused on what's next for your business. the true partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. accelerating innovation.

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good morning to you. i'm jose diaz-balart. the storm that promises to be blizzard force winds and fast falling snow is under way in north carolina. the snow total beginning to build. it's the ice, though, proving to be deadly with two fatal crashes already and the forecast calling for more crippling ice. the salt and plow trucks are ready. up to two feet of snow. near zero visibility