>> i can tell you in the quinnipiac poll, they had a very large contingent. if it's high, trump wins. if it's back to normal, cruz wins. any way, thank you all. we'll be back with more on "mtp daily." whi i'm mark halperin, the republican field, good to have rick perry back in iowa. >> if feels right. it smells right, and it is right. >> hello, from what we call the center of the political universe, at least for another week. we're here in iowa, bloomberg politics, with all due respect politics. less than a week to go before the presidential caucuses. today, candidates of both parties crisscross the state and

we spent time on the trail with senator ted cruz and his newest surrogate, the rifle to the presidential rick perry, we'll have our conversation with the texas governor later in the program. but first, a look at some of the latest polls. on the republican side, some new national surveys that showed donald trump still has a very big lead in some of these polls growing nationally. ted cruz second place, marco rubio steady in third. but he is the leader in that establish. bracket that we talked so much about. a franklin pierce, once again, with the big lead, more than double anyone else's support. ted cruz gets second, by ohio john kasich in third. iowa, showing it quite close. new quinnipiac poll, shows trump leading cruz 31-29. today on the trail, aid a chance to ask cruz how he is feeling at this final stage of the race. >> he seemed pretty relaxed for

a week to. >> we're doing great. we're having fun. >> what do you tell your staff to deal with the pressure in the last week. >> we just keep our focus on what we've been doing from day one. keep unifying and energizing conservatives. the object at the beginning and now. >> do you withstand the pressure voters someone's ability to do the job as president. >> the entire process is a test to the process. it's a great thing about iowa, new hampshire and south carolina. it's the voters make the assessment looking in the eyes, looking at you directly. not what they're saying on tv. it's what they see and observe with their own eyes, and that's why it is such a valuable process. >> so much work in iowa, are you looking forward to monday. >> absolutely. >> yeah? >> you're excited people to vote? >> i'm having more fun than i've ever had in my life. the energy is incredible. >> if you're hold up in your hotel room, you might have

noticed that on the air, there are at least five ads sponsored by ted cruz's campaign or the super pacs going hard after donald trump, such as abortion, health care and eminent domain. two of them, one released by the campaign, one released by the super pac looked awfully similar. take a look. >> with president ban partial birth abortion. >> i am pro-choice in every respect. >> would president trump ban abortion. >> im a very pro-choice. >> you would not ban it. >> i am pro-choice in every respect. >> now, of course, the super pacs coordinated when i asked them about what happened, they said great minds think alike. regardless of the weird confluence, how would you rate the effectiveness of this current attempt by cruz and his super pac to fight back. >> brief word of the question of

coordination, to paraphrase, it feels like it, i'm not accusing anybody of breaking the law, but probably. i think this is the most sustained, well financed assault that we've yet seen. i've never yet to see any evidence that that is an issue that's going to cause him any harm on the basis of everything we've seen for the past six or nine months, even though the attacks have not been sustained. they don't care about whether he's a conservative, pure, they like him because he's strong and still strong. >> the other thing is, tv ads in presidential campaigns don't mean as much as the news coverage. none are making news. they've been brought up before. if you're not getting news coverage for an ad, you're not going to break through, especially when trump will come to the state again today and do mega rallies that will blot out on the ads. i don't think it's going to break him or hurt him. >> it's fair to say voters don't focus on the information.

when trump entered the race and we talked about redon't cover it that much, and it does earned media attention. i think that for cruz voters who care about consistency, that will reenforce that they like cruz more than trump. i don't see how it strip as way. that's what. >> history of this nomination, if trump does end up being the nominee, they might look back and say we were sitting on tens of millions of dollars that we could have spent in the fall to change the dynamics, spending it a week before the caucuses, probably too late. >> ted cruz busy going after trump on a bunch of issues. the donald is laser focused on undermining him with evangelical. jerry falwell, jr. announced he was endorsing trump. wonderful father, and a man who i believe can lead our country to greatness again, end quote.

at the same time, trump has taken, as he often does, to his famous twitter account to blast cruz's biggest evangelical in this state, bob vander plat. why is he so focused and will these tactics work. >> he lives by many dick tickti. >> that's the kind of -- >> not to get supporters away from cruz or the undecided, you've got ben carson, san tore up, those voters are up for grabs if they collapse at the end. he wants to be in the game and wants cruz to defends his turf. >> cruz event today, we talked about this afterwards at lunch. cruz is very aus citizen tash thusly quoting scripture in his event. he is digging trump about the fact that he has screwed up on the quotation on more than one

occasion. and trump's evangelical credentials are not that strong and yet he's doing okay with evangelicals. he wanteds to court evangelicals, trump's strengths and he is also i think a little pissed off what he sees as cruz digging him. >> the endorsement by falwell been met by anger and upset by other people in the community and it shows again, trump's capacity to play in all lanes. you look at the national polls, where is trump strong. he's basically strong with everyone. a little weaker sometimes with the tea party, better educated voters, but stronger across the board. not just here but down the road, trump wants to be in the game and he is. all right, a big development for the republican nomination. le seems small on its own, ben sas from nebraska put out a statement saying he plans to come to iowa over the next few days to campaign with marco

rubio, left open the possibility constitutional candidates yesterday. he took to twitter to blast donald trump on gun rights and health care policy, and last buff not least, his relationships in the past with women. so john, this a senator basically saying, i'm going to use my credibility to stop trump. he's not very well known. what does this mean potentially as we go forward? >> canary in a gold mine, but a late breaking coal mine. >> a late canary. >> to get together and launch kind of sustained assault on trump to try to stop him, that could be the case. you know, i just continue to look at the -- from 30,000 feet, more than 60% of the republicans have been in favor of antiestablishment candidates for the last nine months. i don't know if they have the establishment has the throw away to change the race. >> this guy is a flue senator and aspects of his biography to make him a -- >> u.s. senator. >> neighbors state, but come the

less, unless donald trump has a collapse when you're going to see more senators say we've got to stop him, this guy is come theerg do it. i think there will be more in the coming days, and after iowa and new hampshire if he wins them both. >> the moment is the moment when george w. bush, john mccain, mitt romney lock arms after say a trump victory in new hampshire and say we the past three nominees of our party are standing up to donald trump. this could be a precursor to that. >> also way too little and too late. >> correct. up next, what happens to bernie sanders comes in second here in iowa, later, our conversation with rick perry on his return to the campaign trail. sy tuccerelli's portfolio, what's it to you? or i'm a scottish mason whose assets are made of stone like me heart. papa! you're no son of mine! or perhaps it's time to seize the day.

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. time for talk about the democrats. bernie sanders, playing the expectations game today here in iowa, despite a growing sense that sanders may have the upper hand over hillary clinton, and the haw hawkeye state. he told reporter that in the

end, the iowa caucuses might be too close to call. >> from my mind, we will win here in iowa if the voter turnout is high. and frankly, if the voter turnout did not high, we're going to be struggling. >> mark, given all of the talk of bernie, how sanders could win the race, everything we've heard, after all of that, he finishes second. >> we know the expectations is an extraordinary complicated important part of this process. i think if sanders is close on caucus night, if he's within four points, three points, a second will be okay. if hillary clinton pushies out o a five points or more, it could break him. once upon a time it would have been good enough, but unless it's a real close second,'s in danger. >> new hampshire to win the democratic nomination, i think that even more now, because i think the chattering class considers him the favorite here.

i don't think unreasonably, and he has succeeded in raising expectations by being tough with her, by talking about the fact that he thought he was going to win iowa, increasing confidence. it will be seen as a collapse of some kind in the last days and people will look at him and say you were almost ready to cut off the head of the queen, go back to vermont. >> take out a few of the out lying polls, that shouldn't be the expectation. >> i know. >> look, there is no doubt. if you assume sanders can win this, he berwyn it. but i still think close might be good enough. >> maybe. >> might. we talked yesterday about how hillary clinton has been backing off, which she had done for several days, strategy to go personally negative against bernie sanders, attacking him. her surrogates and staffers are keeping at it, even though she stopped. her allies piling on, tacking sanders for his guns and getting things done in washington. we've seen a lot in the past. good cop, while their allies

where the bad cop badge. john, in iowa, in this race, going the rest of the way, is it a good strategy for hillary clinton to largely stay positive while her seconds go after sanders. >> it's a good strategy to stay positive in the closing days. i think the problem is she is hillary clinton, and she is held to a different standard. people always look at clinton surrogates as if it's hillary clinton literally playing with them and she still takes guff from those who don't like negative campaigning, i'm not one of them. but she takes guff for them doing her dirty work. she might as well do it herself. >> i think she should stay on the high road. >> i think if she's going to stay on the high road, stay every everybody. >> under appreciated that the clinton folks can do, on issues like guns, they are a going to target people on that issue, health care, et cetera. they're very cleverly with mail and phone, reaching constituents in this state. contrast is smart.

even if she doesn't do it herself. >> if she ends up winning, it will be a masterful. she does not have history here, losing, coming in third 2008. if she pulls it off, it will be about investigation an ian incr >> let's see if she can do it. >> rick perry cruising through iowa with his new buddy, ted cruz. what rick perry said about 2016 race and more. right after this.

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. earlier today, we spoke with former texas governor and presidential candidate rick perry at a barn in iowa, ted cruz. we started out with governor perry talking about his over all sense of the current crazy fight for his party's nomination. >> i think it's down to two people. i think this is ted cruz and donald trump, and a lot of good people, you know. when bobby and scott walker, rick perry and you know, to some degree, jeb bush, discount it, they're professional politicians, but it is what it is. i respect this process, i respect the voters, respect their will. and they are really mad at washington. they want somebody to go in and substantially change the

culture, change the direction. and so i think it's down between those two with that choice t was pretty easy for me to decide that ted cruz was the consistent conservative here. you look at ted's life and his -- what he has worked on and he has always been a very consistent, conservative. donald trump, not so much. >> what issues is trump not been a conservative. >> across the board, you know that mark as well as anybody. >> for people trying to decide, what do you think he's not. >> i think there a very powerful 22 movement conservatives that put article in the national review this last weekend that talked about that, you know, that trump is not a committed conservative. i mean, he's been for the assault weapons ban. now he's all for the second amendment. well that does not -- that does not work. you can't be for an assault

weapons ban and then sometime later become mr. second amendment. he is video that's out today that shows him being for partial birth abortion and now he is pro-life. so there is two -- and a third one i would suggest is on this issue of private property, you know. eminent domain is a process that has worked in america over the course of years for highways, for roads, pipelines, those types of things. there a process you go through and you listen to people, work that out. but taking away someone's private property for a casino parking lot so a developer can enrich himself is not the type of eminent domain i think the americans are for. there is a clear difference between donald trump and ted

cruz when it comes to core con certificate tifr values. >> you talked about everybody, about the party being mad at washington right now, right? that's pretty obvious. jeb bush hasn't worked in washington. chris christy, not worked in washington. john kasich not worked in washington. >> wrote some pretty nasty stuff about washington. >> those are three governors. what's wrong with them. >> nothing. these are fine people with extraordinary experience. the elector rate doesn't want that. im not working from what i want. i'm working with reality. to me, that says we want one of these two people. we're starting our way through it. so okay, if that is the case for the american people, i went through a personal process with ted, because i didn't know him. i knew him through the media. >> you were governor and he was senator and you never hooked up.

>> he's only been senator for -- >> yeah, but -- >> washington, mine, that's, you know, i don't know a lot of people in the congressional delegation that well. i know them by what i read about them and what have you, and then that was the case with the senator. he was gracious enough to reach out to me and say hey, i would like to come down and talk to you. we did. we didn't talk about politics. we didn't talk about this election cycle. we didn't talk about philosophy. i wanted to find out who he was as a person. >> how could it be, someone familiar with the challenge of having the public seen through television, get a sense with what you're like, you've met him. a lot of people know him, they all think he's a great guy, humble, why is it that the perception amongst his senate colleagues is that's not what he is like. >> i don't know. why was the purceptierception g. bush wasn't smart. he was a great man. i knew that. listen, this politics --

>> how does that happen in our society that people aren't able to project who they are. donald trump is going hard after him saying he's -- >> there are a lot of people out there who project a story about other people that aren't true. i mean, that's been going on since -- maybe even before that. so the point is that it is up to individuals who do care about this country who do care about we're headed. i want a very consistent person to be my president. i don't want to wake up everyday and say we're going to be today relative to iran. i wonder where they're going to be relative to israel. i wonder where they're going to be relative to this tax or that regulation. and ted cruz has proven to me, both with his actions and with conversations that i've had, that he's going to be

consistent. >> let me ask you two questions on policy okay. i television with donald trump, and i asked him on substance, where he and cruz differed in ways. first thing he pointed to is immigration. he thinks cruz is too soft on immigrati immigration, isn't for the wall. >> did you ask him about how he's going to build the wall, whose land he's going to take away, how much it's going to cost and how long it's going to take. >> i didn't have a chance. >> those are really important issues. throw down lines of i'm going to build a wall, beautiful, make mexico pay for it, i've had experienced -- >> you don't have any concerns about cruz on immigration as being too soft for amnesty? >> there are two words that you don't say in the same sentence about ted cruz. soft and stupid. i understand that ted cruz was called stupid by donald trump yesterday. now come on. soft and stupid don't go in the

same sentence about ted cruz. >> let me ask you the second one, the ethenol question. pretty tough on senator cruz on that issue. what do you think about that? >> well, ted has got basically the same position i had. and i'm come from a state that has a very large animal agriculture ral industry, and so when a drought and corn prices go through the roof at the same time, it's really hard on the animal industry. so i came out for a waiver on rfs early on. when i ran up here, i clearly told people, listen, i'm not picking on the ethenol industry. i think we need to look at all of these energy subsidies and quite frankly take them across the board a way, and compete on a level playing field. i'm an commissioner. iowa farmer and what they want. they want to sell their corn. i think we need to focus more on

getting our corn sold internationally around the world than on propping up this renewable fuel standard. i think ted is correct on that. i think he's correct nationally. this is a cronnie capitalism that americans are ready to see removed. now, remove it, but have processes in place to open up the market so these farmers, you know what, they don't care where they sell their corn. they want to be able to sell their corn. >> last question. this trump/cruz fight, is it going to go long or could they win it quick? >> i don't know. i know iowa is really important. i know that when the voters of iowa, when the evangelical in iowa looks, it's going to be ted crews cruz or donald trump. and i go back to one moment in time that i think really crit

tallized it for me, and i think a lot of evangelicals here in iowa st iowa sitting on the stage and donald trump was asked have you ever asked god for forgiveness and offhandly said nope, never needed anything that i thought raised the level i needed to ask god for forgiveness. >> all right, thanks to governor pa perry. god to have him back on the campaign trail. don't forget, you're watching this program in washington, d.c., you can now listen to us if you're away from the tv, but radio, on bloomberg 99.1 in the nation's capitol. right after this. the microsoft cloud allows us to

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our next guest is president obama former campaign manager, chief advisor for uber and member of the board, bottle washer, variety of different things, david fluff, joins us

from san francisco, anything approximate but politics together. we're here in iowa, you spent a lot of time here four years ago and eight years ago. tell us as you look at this democratic race what you see? >> well, i think iowa is going to be very close. i think that you know, my suspicion is bernie sanders expectations have risen, so he needs to win it. i think hillary clinton will be strong in all 99 counties, and that's important the way the process on the democratic side works in terms of delicate allegation and the process of where you might want to acquire an extra delegate. she'll be strong throughout out the state. bernie sanders has a great campaign, outside strengths in johnson story county. as i look down the field, march 15th is probably separation tuesday, and so i think, you know, bernie sanders obviously would probably have to win a lot of states up to that point. you've got florida, ohio, north carolina, amazing the big states

that are happening that day. so it's hard to see a scenario where hillary clinton even if she stumbles in iowa and new hampshire doesn't secure the nomination and i think with some strength. >> david, you endorsed hillary clinton a little while back, can you give us a sense of what into your thinking of that, endorse hillary clinton rather than sanders? >> well, again, bernie sanders has run a great campaign. i think, by the way, a year ago, if you said donald trump looks like the likely republican nominee and bernie sanders could win new hampshire. you would get a mill and a half odds on that bet. you can't predict these things. i think, listen, the democratic and republican, she would be the best candidate and add to the legacy. from a general election standpoint, listen, the odds are right now that trump or cruz will be the republican nominee. something funky could happen. from my standpoint, to hand the oval office to one of them would

be catastrophic. bernie sanders can win the race, hillary clinton can win the race. ready to be president, ready to process progrif sim aims, think shy he's far and away the best candidate. >> david, if you were to go over the sanders campaign as a management consultant and look at their books, what are the two things you would want to look at to get a sense to how strong the organization is? >> well, i mean, i think how strong, you know, the term we use in iowa is ones. those are your firm supporters. how strong are those ones are they going to support your candidate or turn out. and are you matching that to the distribution of delegates. so are you strong both in terms of your caucus attender pledges, but in terms of the organization to turn them out and execute. there is nothing like it in american politics. i think the clinton campaign have learned a lot since 2008,

and all 99 counties, my understanding they have an organization in all the precincts and paying attention to how they'll under fold. that's the question. how deep are you, both in terms of support and organization. and what does that mean in terms of the actual delegate production on caucus night. >> david, on the other side of the aisle, senator cruz sites you and your what he has tried to build. i don't know you don't know the republican as the democrats, as you look at the cruz organization, do you think they've done a good job emulating. >> first of all, don't blame me for that. that's a burden i can't shoulder. but, well, listen, i mean, my sense is, and again, i am not a republican primary expert, but my sense is, cruz is probably running the smartest campaign. the iowa rules are different on the republican side. different than election. you have to show up at one time, but less burdensome. i think organizations don't

matter. so my sense is cruz probably has a better sense of, and if you look at his schedule, i glanced it over the weekend. i was impressed. he is going to smaller communities, based on delegate production. i think trump has not done well, he was in pal low, which is great for him, but he has been going near major urban centers, because it's convenient travel wise. if he loses this, he'll regret that. cruz is running the smartest race, marrying his strategy to the actual allocation on caucus night. >> you you would be sure plipri all over the state not just in that local community. drawing in a lot of people by doing a single event with thousands rather than doing the small communities 50 people at a time. >> you're going to get some spillover. you go to sue city, sue county, lion county, webster county.

it's no the the same as going into the community. running for governor of iowa. you have to be on the ground. you have to do many, many different events in the major counties like scott, like polk, like lynn, but you've got to get into the smaller communities. it's just part of the recipe. always has been. trump has can he identify every conventional wisdom there is. maybe he'll defy this one. >> let me ask you, bring you back, looking at the democratic side again, just as a -- help us provide a viewing guide, if you're watching, care about the democratic side, and you're watching tv on monday night, the night of the caucuses, what should be you looking for to get an early idea about how things might turn out? >> you mean in terms of some of the county results? >> yeah, i think if i'm sitting at home watching the coverage, what should i be looking for whether hill vee performing against expectations, doing what she needs to do, whether sanders is doing the same? >> well, i think first of all,

overall projected turn out and most people believe the higher the better for sanders. obviously we went into the stratosphere with over 200,000. is it 1, 120, 140. sanders, we know he's going to do iowa county, johnson county, how well is he doing along the missouri iowa border. how long is he doing along the minnesota border. barack obama in 2008, great strengths in the caucuses, strength up and down the border with illinois and iowa around the mississippi river. i think hillary clinton should be strong there. so again, i think that in this race, i think that the question is sanders, we know he's going to do well in the college communities, but you know, who wins poll, who wins scott. if clinton is able to win the larger counties, she'll over perform in some of the rural counties, the border communities. she did very well along the nebraska border and the south

dakota border. >> right okay. david, we could have you on all day. maybe sometime we will. thank you very much for coming on. coming up, democratic strategist, hillary clinton supporter, jerry crawford, after this. and i'm still struggling with my diabetes. i do my best to manage. but it's hard to keep up with it. your body and your diabetes change over time. your treatment plan may too.

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institutions, one a man who has been described as i strategist, king maker, racehorse owner, human rolodex and supporter for a long time, jerry crawford. also with us, a man backing bernie sanders, john campbell, from the steelworker's local 310. thank you for being with us. mr. campbell, let me start with you. how are you feeling in your gut about bernie sanders's chance in the iowa caucuses. >> we had a town hall meeting in our union hall and i'm ecstatie. people who never caucus before are willing to engage and look at our issues finally for the first time we think in a long time. >> your gut, though, first or second or you don't know? >> i think we're going to be first, you know. look, nobody seen obama coming. and you know, i was overwhelmed when they came to the caucuses like they did. and that was from the ground up. nobody can predict any given

night, the weather or any circumstance. but passion moves people. >> yep. terry crawford, what gives you concern. what worries you, keeps you up at night, you're known be to a sound sleeper. what worries about them? >> well, first of all, they're lucky to have john's leadership and john and his friends are lucky to have senator sanders in the race. he has been a credit to the race. it's have been great spring training. but having said that, i couldn't be more confident. john was talking about the great crowd they had at the steelworker's hall. 23 internationals have endorsed hillary clinton just like the "des moines register" and the concord newspaper and the boston globe and on it goes. because as barack obama said yesterday, she is the most prepared person to seek the presidency, other than the president or a vice-president. maybe in the history of our

country. hen henry kissinger. carl row up on television against her. now, let's see. why do we think that might be. oh, yeah, because they know they can't beat her. senator rubio said, if this comes down to quality of resume we, we lose and they're going to. >> you went through 2,000 -- 2008, running a qualified candidate, a good campaign, but seeing yourself matched against a movement, and the movement being driven by a similar group supporting bernie sanders now. have you had any deja vu that the same thing could be happening again? >> i think we all have ptsd who were with clinton in 2008, but this time, we have the best of both of those efforts from 2008, whether you're talking about the field, i mean, you've got robbie mook who has been flawless.

no drama between the national operation and the iowa operation. he's brilliant and he's humble and that's a very effective combination in iowa. and matt paul and michael hali here on the ground, and i promise you, we have young people by the hundreds now, who most of whom have been here since april and they know they're going to caucus monday by name. >> do they have a strong operation here or is it -- >> absolutely. it's not paper tiger. matt paul, some of the people he has named are good friends of mine, and been insiders for a long time. and this is not an inside out campaign. this is a bottom up movement, you know. i think it's important to make the disstinks, you know, that this is deja vu with an -- it resonates in the sense that, i'm going to make a controversial statement here. >> please do. >> i don't care about bernie

sanders in the sense that bernie sanders. he's a face of a movement. he is our face of our issues. until we go forward and support him in those endeavors. i remember telling the obama supporters, where are you going to be in june, where you going to be in october, november. when the issues come, and that we have to address these to support this president to get health care reform, to be able to get labor reform. and some of the other things that we find very important and meaningful to our lives, they weren't there. and subsequently, this president wasn't able to accomplish his full agenda. so now we have a movement with a different face. saying essentially, but consistently, you know, without checking the weather, knowing that he has a position and he has voted on these issues

repeatedly, you know, and he didn't need any clarification on how bad trade is. >> go ahead. we have less than 30 seconds. button it up. >> john is right. the face matters. organization as good as it is, hillary has been terrific. a fighter, really caught her stride, you could see that last night. my friend, michael used to say, one of them is president. she is the person who can win. she's the person who can fight to get things done. >> jerry crawford, tying both in one segment. jerry and john, thank you. good luck over the last week. we'll be right back with our colleagues right after this. soup and sandwich and clean and real,

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megan murphy and contributor and victory lab, shash sha eisen berg. welcome to iowa. we have a few days out from the caucuses. what are the -- what's the most important story to snu what are you going to be looking for over the days ahead. >> who finishes first, john. seriously, that's it. >> that's all you care about is the horse race. >> there is more at stake since any time in 1988. we always say the earl ones aren't. >> i'm looking, like everybody else, the strength of trump's ground game and sander's ground game. a mismatch what they're going to deliver come monday. >> sasha, go ahead. >> i think that's it. i mean, you know, i think the clinton folks and cruz folks are relative about their numbers. nobody has any idea the denominate tore in this election. that comes down to sander'

motivation and what is really has to bring a -- >> does anybody think it matters who is third? >> it matters in that if it's a strong third, i know that seems like a sophomoric thing to say, if marco rubio, it could give him momentum. >> what's a strong third. >> you guys are so much better. he's in the mid teens and he's not too far behind the second place person. the reason it matters is not because he gets the -- it puts him in a stronger position in new hampshire when you can get rid of the establishment candidates if you beat them. i'm not sure. >> i agree. i'm not sure there is a strong third that's going to help him that much if we see trump in the 20s, 30s, i think how much mow memo tum will that lose for rubio, even if he does show a credible showing. >> i think the trump/cruz sort of dynamic is going to try media

coverage in the week between iowa and new hampshire, so it's not just who finishes third, but what do they do to insert themselves into the debate. engaging people in any way that would sort of drive free media coverage to him. >> all weigh in on this that we had earlier. bernie sanders now given where we are, if bernie sanders falls short and finishes second or does he need to win? >> that's my position, by wait. >> john, i think he needs to win to have even a sliver of a chance, which i don't think he has much channels. if he finishes, he's not going to go away. he's going to raise a lot of money. he has more states than people realize in early that he can do well in. it's important for hillary to beat him here, because then it's a contest of how long he stays. >> i disagree about the sliver of a chance. i think if we look -- >> i think it's higher than a

sliver. the reason is because the economic and equality debate which has dominated his am he is sage, she consistently is missing the message and he consistently is hitting the message. nuance, come pain of extremes, inequality, wall street, he is hitting every note in that message much more than she is right now. that could become a greater ground swell. >> eight votes short, can he claim a victory there, and say i tied, i should haven't -- >> a moral victory. back to 2,000, where bradley lost in iowa, an opportunity vote in either party's primary, and there just seemed to be a loss of energy around the bradley campaign. it's hard to put a number on this, but it seems independents for mccain on the republican side and contributed to that margin. >> i think sasha makes a great

point, noothey fear bernie winst here, they'll get momentum. >> jump on, you can answer. if you were doing an analysis of the trump campaign today, what is a mistake that campaign has made. >> i think megan kelly today has been a mistake. i don't think that scores points for them and the people he needs to -- i think i'm not sure that's a win are for him. once we move beyond this show move, it causes attention to the negatives that could hurt him as more and more people take a closer look. >> that's a tactical. does anyone see a strategic mistake? >> i don't think if this is strategic, but seeming so receptive to establishment support since it's been coming to him. both appearing with incumbent senators, incredibly successful appropriate tors and talking up

the fact as though it's a virtue and it under cuts the appeal of his campaign. >> i think donald trump has made one mistake after another. it's going to hurt him and it hasn't hurt him. i'm going to stop and equal tie -- i mean, i love two corinthians and we're going to get to three next. >> you know what trump would say about that? the three favorite corinthians he has ever met. here's my question, what do you think could be the biggest surprise? what could plaus below hab? >> he doesn't deliver. five six, points behind ted cruz. i wouldn't predict that for a minute. but that would be a surprise. if he finishes a point or two behind or if he wins certainly and people begin to say you know something, less there than we thought. that would be a surprise. >> for me, it would be a big clinton victory. that would be the biggest surprise and one that could happen if the numbers are off, if her ground game turns out and

if she's just far more argued and disciplined. >> a name that could be the big story on monday night who is not one of the four guys? >> i think jeb in that if he can, you know, get anywhere above the dull droms and to stick around a little longer. >> strong fifth. >> powerful fifth. >> all right, thank you. >> thank you, guys. >> my three favorite corinthians. we'll be back with who won the day. you know the symptoms when they start. abdominal pain. urgent diarrhea. now there's prescription xifaxan. xifaxan is a new ibs-d treatment that helps relieve your diarrhea

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all right, mark, another day is over and i have to ask the question i always ask. who won it? >> hillary clinton. i have no particular concrete thing. my sense is, though, from her universe, we saw with jerry crawford, they're feeling more confident, sanders is a steamroller they can't stop. >> who won the day? we won it, because al hunt is

fieply here. tom brokaw tomorrow. all week in iowa. >> we'll see you tomorrow. coming up, "hardball with chris matthews." fox trash talks, trump, smart move or not? let's play hardball. >> good evening, i'm chris mathes in washington. he'll skip the fox news debate this thursday night. here he is. >> probably i won't be doing the debate. i'm going to have something else in iowa, we'll do something where we raise money for the veterans and the wounded warriors, do something same mill tainious. let's see how many people h.