s.ny.gov despite bowing out, fox news -- you see this? they're still trying to get people excited about the debate. >> thursday night it's the fox news republican debate! sure donald trump won't be there, but that doesn't mean this debate won't blow your foxing mind! we've still got a bush that won't be tamed. >> we were -- we had -- we balanced every budget. >> and ben carson is about to open your head and drop a sponge in it! >> the value of personal

responsibility, hard work, creativity. >> plus the triple decker disaster! cruz, kasich, christie and rand paul. the fox news republican debate! we are totally not freaking out right now! >> oh, that was funny. >> oh, my gosh, mother truckers. okay. >> and then ben carson. by the way, we never talked about it, the guy that imitates ben carson on "saturday night live.." sometimes it's like chevy chase, his gerald ford was so bad. >> he has a layer that ben carson doesn't even have. what is that? i don't know what that is. >> that's what i'm saying. he just makes it up. i'm sure if i were ben carson i wouldn't think it was funny. >> he's faded enough from, like, the spotlight, that you sort of go with it. oh, yeah, that's ben. we've got a lot to talk about. we're getting more information about donald trump's event tonight at 9:00 from his

campaign in iowa. i guess that's happening at drake university. it is thursday -- thursday. welcome to "morning joe," it's january 28. >> any day you wake up before 4:00 hurts. >> just hurts. >> and when you're still tweeting about rem after 11:00 at night, it's not bad choice. milk was a bad choice. >> you're not doing that. >> i was tweeting about rem. with us on set we have veteran columnist in and msnbc contributor -- >> the vet: >> just legend. >> old and be done it with. >> legendary. >> mike, i'm saying it out of respect. you stop undermining me. >> guys, on the count of three, legendary, one, two, three -- >> epic. >> legendary. >> exactly. >> dog whistle -- ageism is a word. >> add epic. >> why do you hate old people? >> mike is an amazing columnist in who's been writing for decades and, quite frankly, needs to write a little more. >> you did it again.

for decades. >> are you getting your book done? >> let's move on, please. come on, just move on. >> you can piss ann off if you bring up that book. >> now he's getting grumpy. >> mike is the only guy that would even think willie geist of going up and interviewing a former president about a book he was writing and then just go "nah. i'm not gonna write the book." >> he lost interest. >> you write in poetry. you have to finish the book. >> we have a lot to get to today, mika. >> in washington, republican pollster and columnist in at the washington examiner kristen anderson and managing editor of bloomberg politics john hielman. nicolle wallace is here, too. >> let's talk about it. you and willie were absolutely sure that this was all a setup. >> i'm still -- >> you guys convinced me it was a setup. >> well, i'm still trying to

find out. >> because at the end of the day, you know, we always talk about how smart donald trump is with the media. roger always. who's smarter? i mean, the guy's been brilliant every step of the way. this doesn't make sense for roger, it makes sense for donald trump. he shows strength, he doesn't have to answer pesky questions and he has his own event which will probably get a lot more attention than you think people will say he will in the debate. >> yesterday i was at 72.3% he was going to be at the debate. after watching trump's performance i'm down 41%. >> i'm still not sure: the campaign events are eight minutes apart from each other. >> i believe there's a chance donald trump wants on that stage. >> so you think it might be deion sanders where deion plays football and then takes a

helicopter and is dropped in the middle of atlanta fulton county stadium and plays baseball. >> the trump copter. >> i watched the interview with bill o'reilly last night and that was painful. >> i think it's getting personal. watch this. >> in your christian faith, there's a significant tenet, and that's the tenet of forgiveness and i think you should forgive not only journalists who come at the you in ways you don't like, but i think you should be the bigger man and say, you know what? i didn't like it and you should make that case all day long but i'm not going to take any action against it. don't you think that's the right thing to do? >> it probably is but, you know, it's called an eye for an eye i guess also you can look at it that way. >> that's old testament. no, no -- >> bill -- >> no, if you are the christian the eye for the eye rule goes out. here's what it is, turning the other cheek. >> you're taking this much more

seriously than i am. i'm not taking it seriously. i'm going to have and woreful time at 9:00 at drake university. >> you're depriving people of seeing you in a forum they need to see you. >> a a lot of press will be there. we'll help a lot of veterans whereas fox is not giving anything to the veterans. i'm giving 100% to the veterans. >> oh, stop it. >> i'm going to make a substantial donation. >> i want you to consider, all right, think about it, say, look, i might come back, forgive, go forward answer the questions, look out for the folks. you owe me milk shakes, i'll take them off the ledger if you consider. >> it even though you and i had an agreement that you wouldn't ask me that -- which we did --i will therefore forget that you asked me that.

>> you're actually telling the truth they said -- >> because i told you up front, i said "don't ask me that question because it's an embarrassing question to you and i don't want to embarrass you." >> but i'm not going to listen to any political person telling me don't ask me anything but you're absolutely an honest man. and i said i'll try not to do it but the milk shake thing just overwhelmed me. but i'm asking you to reconsider it. >> a lot of milk shakes. >> wow. >> there's so many things there. >> what is going on? what's happening? >> would you ever do that? the begging part where you're like beg for your network president. >> the i think we proved on this show that we don't beg people to be on the show. i do remember when we got disconnected from donald and it was dead silent on the set here and nichole sa nicolle said "i from every pore." >> you didn't like that. you were uncomfortable. >> but, no, the subtle words i used yesterday, i'd rather set

myself on fire than beg somebody to do something. >> so hearing from the trump campaign they're setting up quite an event tonight at drake. going to see a lot of vets on stage and honor them and they're going to raise a lot of money and i'm getting more details as we speak and they're going to talk about the problems at the v.a. in great detail. >> so willie, donald trump. the guy looks like he's in the cat bird seat. i think fox has walked into a trap that feeds into every one of his strengths. he now has the most powerful network for republicans. i mean, it's an indispensable network for republicans. they now have their most powerful person, begging them to be on a debate stage. >> begging. >> i think in that statement they were calling his bluff and i don't think it was meant to taunt donald trump. it was in the style of statements they put out in the past. i think they were trying to make about a joke about the whole situation where he put up the

twitter poll and do the debate and it backfired. i think they walked into a different kind of character, somebody who's not going to play the game, as he said. i think roger ailes probably thought this is the first salvo, trump will fire back, we'll talk behind the scenes and it will be good for everybody and at this point it doesn't look like it will be good for fox news and it might not have worked out the way they thought it would. >> trump has broken all the rules of this campaign, he's been three steps ahead of everybody else. somebody asked me, he said "you guys for six months have given him positive news coverage." i said, no, when everybody said he couldn't win everybody around this table said he could and when everybody was saying he didn't have a chance to get above 20% we were saying he could and we've been proving right every step of the way. donald trump has blown up every convention about politics and now he's doing it with republican politics which says you can only win by being on --

obsequious to be fox news. if i ran, i would be obsequious to fox news. nobody has the power -- for whatever reason, he can do it -- to do what he does. i don't get it. >> it's all beyond me. i can't figure out anything anymore when it comes to donald trump, i really can't. fox news never should have issued that statement that they issued. a news organization shouldn't be issuing a statement that sounds as if it came from an opposite campaign. and i don't know that -- you know, yesterday yesterday megyn kelly was going back at donald trump saying things. i like megyn kelly but she shouldn't get involved in a back and forth with the candidate for president. >> well, especially if she's going to be a moderator. >> correct. >> and that's the thing. if she was going to be a moderator in a future debate, how can you -- mark halperin, i don't care -- heilemann, i mean,

any network. you guys are like fungible commodities. at any network i don't see how anybody, any candidate would allow themselves to go before somebody who he had been openly hostile to and she had been openly hostile back to. it's been a war of words. >> yeah, joe, i think -- well, that's clearly right and i can understand trump's position here. everyone's already said on the show, they just walked into a trap. they set themselves up. one doesn't want to sound pig arish about this. people say fox news isn't a news organization. generally i like to defend fox news to the extent is possible to say they have an eideologica slant but in this instance they've behaved petulantly not like any news organization should ever behave. they opened themselves up to criticism and made themselves

vulnerable to trump's strength. he's winning this battle entirely. there was no backlash yesterday. he's paying no price and i think he'll benefit from it if anything. >> you know, nicolle, the thing about fox news and their pr department, they've always been famous. in fact, i've heard journalists that work for other news organizations say time and time again "i wish my news organization would defend me like roger defends people that work for him." maybe that's what this comes down to. maybe roger is saying what donald is saying, which is i would rather lose than let somebody take cheap shots at one of any news anchors. >> roger and bill o'reilly remind me of you, the way you would defend your female colleagues and so to me listening to bill o'reilly plead with trump to forgive megyn for engaging in journalism, i felt like i could -- >> i'm sorry, i don't think bill o'reilly was defending megyn. every time donald trump insulted her, he never said anything back. >> he kind of let every one of those fastballs.

>> i would not consider it a defense. >> i'll tell you what i think, i'm sure i'm in a minority opinion. the original sin megyn kelly committed is asking him about women. i think he's proving her point by engaging a hot war in the only woman of being a prime time newscaster at fox news. i don't think megyn asked him anything that is a particular outlier. >> if george w. bush had received -- >> he did more interviews and debates in front of hostile journalists, that's a great point. >> it is a great point. if lehrer had asked george w. bush a question with the edge -- it was really a campaign speech disguised as a question -- that she asked, and i think she kept going after him, you would have been the first to go crazy. >> that was -- >> listen, i think difficult questions posed to candidates are part of what you -- but,

listen, i think his supporters feel as you guys have said, that it's a show of strength. i think some women if you get to the general election think it would have been an opportunity to show a different kind of strength. >> i'm asking you as the president's -- >> i made george w. bush -- he called me lots of names, i made him sit down with all sorts of hostile reporters. >> i'm not talking about sitting down. we're talking about a moderator for a debate who is supposed to be above the fray. you would never allow john mccain or george w. bush -- >> john mccain and george w. bush both did debates with moderators that they would not have selected. but listen i think it's settled -- >> you're dodging this question. >> george bush sat down with all sorts of journalism moderators that were hostile towards him. >> i'm talking about debate moderators. >> i think it's a missed opportunity for donald trump to display bigness. sure he looks strong but there's no debate about that i mean's strong. >> i think he's doing something that has been building up over years and this the as television totally branches out into cable

and online, you get a lot of moderators who make it about themselves and there wasn't only the fox debate we're talking about here and i think he's saying you know what? i'm not going to another debate where it's all about the moderators, it's supposed to be about the debates, i've done six, i've won them all, what more do i need do? do i need to prop up more moderators to want to make it about themselves? >> necessary first place, standing next to guys that are 10, 15 points behind him is a greater risk for him than the others. >> it makes sense. >> i don't refute the strategy. >> could you ever believe, though, that he'd get in the middle of a fray with fox news and nobody has laid a glove on him? >> nobody. nobody's laid a glove on him. >> he's won this. >> i want to clear up one thing nicolle said then we have to get on to some polls. just for the record, my female co-host -- >> and all your colleagues, you're an advocate for all the women. >> a much fiercer defender of her male co-host and much better at it and much more frightening when she's defending me than when i try to defend her.

i'm serious. >> and i didn't mean to make it -- >> mika is -- >> when people defend their female colleagues from an assailant, as trump is against megyn kelly, he's been engaged in a vicious war of words against her. it didn't bother me what bill o'reilly said. >> o'reilly should have said "excuse me? you're talking about her intellect? she's a lawyer, she's done this, she's done that, she's a mother of three, you do not undermine the credibility and the intellect of my colleague." where was that, bill? >> he should have gone that far, i agree with you. >> he let all the attacks stand. >> that was really -- that was kind of -- that was tough. >> wouldn't let that go. new polls from the first three early states where donald trump has clear momentum in iowa. the nbc news/"wall street journal"/marist poll has trump at 32%, he's gained eight points in iowa as ted cruz slides to 25%. marco rubio a strong third place at 18%. all the negatives we've been

talking about as far as marco not seen here. he's up five in iowa. if i were with marco's camp, i'd be very excited about this poll. if i were in ben carson's camp, well, i would start writing my other book. he slips to 8%. jeb bush at 4% in iowa. this after a new monmouth pom is showing trump gaining 11 points in iowa since december 30. he's now at 30% to cruz 2350's . rubio a strong third at 16%. >> let's move to new hampshire where the nbc news/marist poll is virtually you will changed since early january. trump is at 31%. rubio and john kasich at 11% and bush and christie at 7% and 8% each. and in south carolina, trump has a 16-point lead over cruz. 36% to 20%. rubio at 14%, jeb bush at 9%. ben carson at 8%. >> after talking about marco

rubio slipping over the past couple weeks, losing four points here, five points here, other than trump being absolutely dominant here, the three stories out of the polls are trump dominates, cruz is slipping and rubio is now moving into third place. he is moving into poll position for that establishment slide. and at least in this snapshot on this day it's badly needed good news for the rubio campaign and i think they got it. >> this is what has been emerging as the rubio strategy. sort of let trump and ted cruz duke it out in iowa, put in a strong showing in new hampshire and hope that helps you there. these polls also show no one has gone toe to toe with donald trump and walked away telling about it. ted cruz goes toe to toe with

donald trump, trump goes off on this weird he's a citizen kick. >> everybody joins in in the greek chorus! nancy pelosi. >> it's a lovely place. >> john mccain. >> and all of a sudden you see -- from the moment that i became a trump believer -- i admit, all last summer i was a trump denier, i thought there's no way. >> i talked about trump deniers. >> but after that first debate when trump went toe to toe with fox news and his poll numbers went up, that was when i started saying okay, wait a minute, this is a different story. if you look at trump's poll numbers going from last summer to now, his numbers have only dipped twice. those two times were when he wasn't in the headlines. it was in september when carly fiorina was on the rise, ben carson was on the rise and john boehner stepped down as speaker and his poll numbers dipped again around the time paul ryan became elected as speaker and the attention was back on the house. donald trump needs oxygen to survive and so by stepping out of this debate and throwing his own event, he's gambling he's

going to get more oxygen then the debate will after you can't seeing those numbers going up and up. >> one of those times when his numbers went down when he laid back in the debate and didn't say a lot. he east just laying back. no, kristen just nailed it, he needs oxygen to survive. >> job hieilemann, can you give us a status report? cruz and trump's get out the vote operation in iowa? >> the trump operation i think people are starting to acknowledge that there is a real -- this has been a question for some number of months is whether trump has a real ground force. he does, no question about it, it's got a big challenge which is they're trying to bring new people into the process. at this point i don't think many people on the ground would dispute the fact that trump has the momentum and is pulling away from cruz. cruz slipping but he has the

strongest ground operation in iowa which will help him compensate for this loss of momentum that we're seeing. rubio has nothing on the ground here in terms of get out the vote operation. he's starting to creep up and just to play further on the question of that dynamic that shows up in the poll there is, i started getting all kinds of e-mail and text from rubio donors and people around senator rubio yesterday asking me whether i thought there was a chance that rubio might actually be able to get over ted cruz into second place. there's a discernible idea floating around in rubio's orbit that he is gaining ground rapidly here and that there might be an upside surprise on monday night. i don't know if that will happen but a lot of people in rubio's orbit seem to think it might. >> willie, earlier in this late summer, whatever, we were saying on set for cruz to rise, carson has to fail. when carson failed, it was cruz

rising. there is no doubt the battle now is not between rubio and bush, it's been between rubio and cruz. people are making their mind up. do i go with rubio? do i go with cruz? that's the big question. since ted cruz stood up in front of a microphone and accidentally said "i still believe in a place called calgary" it's gone down and momentum shifting. but it's a zero-sum game in iowa for cruz and rubio and rubio is winning that battle. >> if you believe this is a battle for second place overall in the race, to get in that one in one with donald trump. if you're in the rubio campaign right now, look at the data of the last week, you have to be thrilled. he has the best favorables in the state of iowa by a long shot. he's creeping up on ted cruz in iowa, creeping up into that pack in new hampshire now. so if he can come out of iowa with second place, it would be a huge win but a close third place rolling into iowa. suddenly he has a great case to

go one on one with trump. let's get to other headline this is morning. in financial news, asia markets were mixed overnight. china's shanghai composite index was in the red following a weak close on wall street. u.s. dow futures are up slightly. new this morning, we've learned more arrests have been made in the armed occupation of a federal wildlife refuge in oregon. according to the fbi, three men turned themselves into authorities at a checkpoint near the refuge yesterday. eight others, including occupation leader ammon bundy were arrested late tuesday afternoon. >> i don't know there were ships out there. >> salt lake. >> the thing is -- >> that really escalated, huh? >> that's the next story. >> i know! >> at the bird sanctuary? >> at the bird sanctuary! this is the greatest -- warships? this is the greatest ever use of force since waco and ruby ridge.

>> no wonder they're so mad. >> you put a ship in my bird sanctuary. >> bundy is asking remaining occupiers to go home and hug their families. also this morning, iranian news agencies reporting that iran's military warned a u.s. navy ship to leave the country's southeastern waters yesterday. >> they have them over there, too? they're ubiquitous, they're everywhere. >> wait until trump's president. [ laughter ] >> wow. "morning zoo." all right, the u.s. navy characterized the incident as a routine iranian announcement that it was conducting naval exercises, but it comes two weeks after 10 u.s. sailors were briefly detained by iran's revolutionary guard. and finally, today marks 30 years since chajer d "challenger" disaster. all crew members were killed when the shuttle broke apart two

minutes after liftoff. nasa will pay tribute to its fallen crew members today during a replaying ceremony. >> wow, 30 years. >> do you remember where you were? >> yes. >> it's one of those moments. >> absolutely. >> one of reagan's finest moments. >> yes, it was. >> peggy noonan. still ahead on "morning joe." >> he's right. change is difficult. and what this man is asking of us is to be the machine now. i give you bernie sanders. >> susan sarandon campaigned with bernie sanders last night. his campaign manager jeff weaver joins us to talk about the escalating fight over whether the democrats will hold more debates. it's so weird, they want more debates. >> well, hillary does now. >> hillary's all for it. she's ready. >> that's kind of like -- you know, they fixed the gang. >> and then unfixed it because it didn't work. >> now they're desperate to fix it the other way. >> it's fine, have more debates but be honest.

by the way, bernie is proposing three more at a later date. >> he wants them not on saturdays or holidays. plus, we'll hear from rnc chief strategist sean spicer who may be figuring out how many podiums they'll need ahead of tonight's event. >> maybe there will be an empty podium and he'll walk out. and we're adding to the iowa caucus next week to back-to-back caucuses at java joe's. so stop by, have a cup of coffee and join our live audience.

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more now from our nbc news/"wall street journal"/marist poll that shows a statistical tie in iowa among the top democrats. hillary is ahead of bernie sanders 48% to 45%, but that lead is within the poll's margin of error. in new hampshire, sanders continues to look like a runaway train. he leads clinton by 19 points in our new poll out of the granite state after leading by just four points earlier this month. but in south carolina, it's

hillary clinton who is on top by a wide margin. >> massive. >> there she leads bernie sanders 64% to 27%. running away with south carolina. yes? barnicle? >> if cruz loses iowa and new hampshire and south carolina, he goes home. >> well, you know, i -- for cruz, cruz really needs to win iowa. >> that was the democrats. >> i know, it's all right. >> he's -- he's legendary. >> veteran journalists just think that way. >> i was just -- >> you just hit the poll results we did a couple hours ago, yeah. >> just processed that. >> like that commercial where timing is everything, mike. >> i got something on cruz. >> somebody tells you "i love you" and you're sitting across the table. if you just sit and stare at them and they walk off, it's too late five minutes later to say i love you back. >> then they go and get on their plane. >> john heilemann, let's try to make mike feel a little less

uncomfortable by just talking about this for a second before we go on and talk about the democrats. [ laughter ] you know, we've been arguing here that if trump wins iowa, he's off to the races, and i think he is. the opposite of that, also, to me seems to be the case which is if cruz does not win iowa, the landscape looks awfully bleak until texas. i know he's stronger in the south, but the south -- >> but not stronger than trump. >> trump owns the south. >> i think iowa is so crucial for ted cruz, not just because the expectations got set a few weeks ago that he was the leader in iowa and that people started to think of him as the likely winner over trump, again, just a few weeks ago, but this state is -- for cruz, cruz wins iowa, you could imagine a scenario where he wins iowa, finishes second in new hampshire, goes toe to toe with trump in south carolina and is on a path that

could conceivably get him to the nomination. >> exactly. >> if he loses now in iowa and especially if he loses by a lot in iowa it's hard to imagine him finishing better than third or fourth in new hampshire and the whole thing could unravel for cruz quickly. so no one, literally no one, has more at stake on the republican side on monday night than ted cruz. >> nicolle, on the democratic side, you could say the same thing about bernie sanders. bernie sanders just can't win new hampshire by 30 points and expect to be a contender. he's got to win iowa and he's got to win new hampshire. especially when you look at those south carolina numbers. >> right. to not fall into what john just described and what mike alluded to when we were off the topic of ted cruz. he has to string together a story that includes a neighboring state, which is the clinton's well-oiled narrative for why he is leaps and bounds ahead of her there. >> the irony of bernie sanders who was forever the underdog, now he's risen to a point where the expectation is he may win iowa so it's a close race if you

look at her numbers in south carolina, she's strong. >> i'll say sanders needs to win iowa. >> the biggest benefactor if sanders loses ay snai john kasich. inspects in new hampshire. >> interesting. >> senator sanders was in washington, d.c. where he met privately president obama. it was their second meeting in the seven years since obama took office and it cams days after the president heaped praised with hillary clinton in an interview with politico. in their interview in the oval office, sanders says the president has been nothing but fair throughout the primary process. >> the president and i discussed this morning a number of issues, foreign policy issues, domestic

issues, occasionally a little bit of politics. but i enjoyed the meeting and i thought it was a very positive and constructive meeting. what the president has tried to do, what the vice president biden has tried to do is to be as even-handed as they can be and i know there was some discussion the other day about a politico interview where he was tipping the scale towards secretary clinton. i don't believe that at all. i think he and the vice president have tried to be fair and even handed in the process and i expect they will continue to be. >> let's bring in msnbc political correspondent kasie hunt live from des moines, iowa. kasie, iowa looks like a dead heat four days out. >> that's right. and on that flight back from washington after bernie sanders met from the white house, he and his advisors are trying to figure out, were trying to figure out, just how negative bernie sanders is going to be willing to go in order to pull out a win here in iowa.

remember, this is a guy who when he stood on the capitol steps, made his announcement, he said "i've never run a single negative ad in my political career, i don't intend to start now." but that could be changing with expectations, as willie pointed out, getting much higher for him. and i think the question is going to be is he willing to grind that out? we got a little taste of it at a rally yesterday in mason city. >> i am delighted to be here with you tonight in mason city. my opponent is not in iowa tonight, she is raising money from a philadelphia investment firm. [ boos [ boos ] frankly, i would rather be here with you. [ cheers and applause ] >> so the question being whether or not sanders is willing to ratchet up those wall street attacks in particular. we should note that hillary clinton, while on her swing through the east coast, also meeting with african-american faith leaders.

of course, she has a particular strength among those voters and it's something that as that polling shows, particularly in south carolina, could carry her through the long run in a way that sanders might not be able to sustain. but i will say it's going to be interesting to see how sanders supporters react if he does go very negative against hillary clinton. i was at their headquarters yesterday, it's exactly what you would expect, kind of feels like a college dorm room, cables lying everywhere, it's all universally positive. people are very, very excited about bernie sanders. there's not a lot of discussion about why hillary clinton wouldn't be good for the country. >> so really quickly, kasie, so let me get this straight, hillary clinton had a fund-raiser at a bank in philadelphia yesterday? >> you heard the man. >> wow. that's interesting. >> what bank? >> investment bank? >> for? >> financial institutions. >> did she give a speech? i'm just curious.

if you can pick up a quarter million dollars in an afternoon, that must be nice. kasie, thank you so much -- >> well, it also tells you -- >> go ahead, kasie. >> it tells you what she's expecting going forward to actually take the risk of ending up with a headline like this a few days out from iowa. they are suddenly preparing for a really long slog financially speaking. bernie sanders is right behind her and he can go back to these small donors that he has over and over and over again and so it really does underzhoscore th narrative. why does bernie sanders want her to commit to having three debates in march and april pretty far off and doesn't want to do one next week, necessarily. i think this helps explain that. >> thank you, kasie. willie, four days before iowa where one of the top issues has to do with income disparity and banks and hillary says i've been fighting them my whole life, i've been fighting them for 30 years, maybe they give me a

quarter million dollars for speaking for 15 minutes but i've been fighting them my whole life. four days before the iowa caucus she goes and raises money at an investment bank. >> she certainly handed bernie that line on a silver platter. the group is called franklin square capital. >> [ laughter ] you can't make this up! >> here's the mitigating factor. it featured a concert by bon jovi. and it's telling, she canceled two fund-raisers tonight in new york city. >> she was going to be in new york tonight raising money three days before iowa? >> wow. she must be very confident that the people of iowa don't care whether she's there or with bankers raising money on the east coast. and bon jovi, too. that is -- he's got some good songs. >> got to see some songs. >> was he singing? >> did a concert. >> for the bankers? >> for hillary. >> that's a big fund-raiser. must be a really, really wealthy investment bank to afford boej. >> that -- still ahead on

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think of it as a seven seat for an action packed thriller. joining us now is the commander of the army in europe, lieutenant general ben hodges. also the "wall street journal's" editorial page editor brett stevens, he's also a member of the "wall street journal's" editorial board and he writes the paper's foreign affairs column "global view" and won the pulitzer prize for commentary in 2013. >> that's nothing, willie won the pulitzer prize in 2012. >> year before. >> and i won the masters. >> year after nicklaus. but nobody remembers because it was '87. >> bright minds at the table.

>> general, i was just saying a very boring time to have your position in europe. what's the greatest challenge. >> well, i'm excited, joe, to see how the alliance nato, the most successful alliance in the history of the world has come together in the face of a revenr russia and refugee challenges. >> how great of a danger is putin to the security of not only eastern europe but all of year and now the middle east. >> certainly, the effort they have put in to deny access to the baltic sea puts pressure on our allies in estonia, latvia and lithuania. the fighting in ukraine, they have not lived up to the minsk agreement yet, they've made it difficult for the osce organization for security and cooperation in europe to monitor the implementation of the minsk agreement by going into syria, they've not been transparent in why they went there. so it makes it difficult to be a

partner with russia which is -- we want them back into the international community, we need russia, makes it difficult to work with them. >> brett, since 1991, a lot of foreign policy analysts say russia's foreign policy has been driven by one thing -- resentment, resentment of america, resentment of the west. how much do you see putin's moves as just a reflection of that? a resentment. >> you have to look. in 2005 he was the man who said the biggest tragedy of the 20th century was the collapse of the soviet union. not the holocaust, not soviet communism and i think the whole policy -- not recapturing the old soviet union per se or the soviet's fear but certainly what you might call czarist russia. i think efforts to recapture little countries like a sliver of moldova and i don't think people should be surprised if there are efforts to go back into the baltics. all of these little countries

have large russian minorities so they can be activated. they can be used by the kremlin at opportunistic moments to create the kinds of upheaval wes saw in ukraine. >> so i want to ask about the refugee crisis. unhcr.org which tracks this coping with refugees trying to find a place in the world, we're at almost 4,600 refugees -- >> you said four thousand, you mean four million? >> 4,600,000. the number is staggering, it's hard to even comprehend and i would love for you to put into perspective why that's just as important as all the other issues that are threatening to sort of break down the fabric of not only the middle east but our global relations. >> of course it puts huge pressure on our allies, over two million of those refugees are in

turkey right now. germany -- ms. merkel has provided by good leadership. she's under a lot of pressure from her own party because the amount of refugees that have come in there. the most important thing for security in europe is the unity -- members of the e.u. and the unity of the members of the alliance and this is putting pressure on that unity. now, second to that, when you think about the human tragedy associated with this. i think the u.s. policy is exactly right, to focus on the source, what's generating the refugees to focus there. the united states has given several billion dollars to the u.n. through agencies in the region so people feel like they can stay versus having to go to europe, sweden, places like that. >> general -- >> can i ask how effective has russia been in syria militarily? >> more than 70% of the targets they're hitting are anti-assad

targets so in that regard, that's not a lot of help. >> that's not isis they're hitting. >> they're still not focused on isis then? >> not at all. >> how do you manage that relationship inside of syria? i know that's not your command. >> central command, general austin, general breed love, my boss, i've been impressed the way the two headquarters have worked together to sort out airspace targeting and, frankly the relationship with the russians to at least avoid some of the potential that was there. the fact is, russia continues to bring in equipment and capabilities into syria that are air defense systems. isil has no air force so clearly they have increased their capability to deny access into this part of the region which is not helpful. >> so is russia an ally or adversary in syria?

>> we want them to be an ally. we want them to -- they have a worse problem with islamic extremism than we do. 25 million muslims, 99% sunni in russia, they have a real problem there and yet they have chosen sides, they're fighting with shi'a and alawites. >> lieutenant general ben hodges, thank you so much for being on the set with us. brett stevens, stay with us if you can. we want to read from your recent column about ted cruz. we'll bring barnicle back for that. also coming up, it doesn't get much more straightforward than this. >> if you captured me or either of my friends, what would you do? >> vice reporter ben anderson sits down with a captured isis fighter for a remarkable interview. it's part of a new vice special report and ben will join us with the first look at that. we'll be right back. he logos.

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apparently mr. trump considers megyn kelly very, very scary. she might ask a mean question and who knows what could happen? i mean, his hair could stand on end. [ laughter ] and i'm going to propose a venue, western iowa tech saturday night in sioux city. we already have it reserved. 8:00 saturday night, a two hour one-on-one debate. >> in response, donald trump tweeted this "even though i beat him in the first six debates, especially the last one, ted cruz wants to debate me again. can we do it in canada?" >> i still believe in a place called calgary. >> stop it. >> still with us, msnbc contributor mike barnicle, the "wall street journal's" brett stevens, kristen soltis

anderson, john heilemann and joining the conversation, editor of the fix at the "washington post," chris cillizza and pulitzer prize winning editorial editor for the "washington post," john that i know canatho >> and chris cillizza, you had the right answer for the best recommend album, "fables. >> it has my favorite recommend song, "green grow the rushes." -- >> look at this guy! >> it's a political show. >> are we doing the fourth hour just be recommend talk? >> yes. >> donald trump is holding to his decision not to participate in tonight's republican debate. trump instead announced a "special event to benefit veterans organizations." it will take place at 9:00 eastern time which just so happens to be the start of the fox news debate. >> willie, percentage? >> 34.1%?

>> still? >> going down. >> it will be at drake university, that is an eight-minute car ride from where the debate is taking place in des moines. i'm not sure why he says he's not going to that. despite his feud with fox news, trump appeared on the network last night with host bill o'reilly. >> in your christian faith there is a very significant tenet, and that's the tenet of forgiveness and i think you should forgive not only journalists who come at you in ways you don't like but i think you should be the bigger man and say you know what? i didn't like it and you should make that case all day long. but i'm not going to take any action against it. don't you think that's the right thing to do? >> it probably is, but, you know, it's called an eye for an eye i guess also you can look at it that way. >> no, that's old testament. >> bill -- >> no no, if you're a christian the eye for the eye rule goes out. here's what it is, turning the other cheek.

>> you're taking this much more seriously than i am. i'm not taking it seriously. i'm going to have a wonderful time tomorrow night at 9:00 at drake university. >> but you're depriving the people of seeing you in a forum they need to see you in. >> no, a lot of press will be there, everybody. we're going to help a lot of veterans whereas fox is not giving anything to the veterans, i'm giving 100% to the veterans. >> oh, stop it. >> i'm going to make a substantial donation. >> that was an incredible 20-minute interview. >> that answer, "i probably should but i'm not" reminds me what i called him after the john mccain thing, he's the donald. you need to apologize. "i probably should, i just don't that." >> he's learn head doesn't have to apologize. he's learned over six months of doing things for which he doesn't need to apologize. so why would he? >> he did the interview, he kept his word and showed up on bill o'reilly. bill o'reilly appeared to be

bigging for them to show up at the bebadebate, which was weird. and when donald trump insulted megyn kelly, bill o'reilly didn't push back. there's so my m different ways you can push back. her show holds up the network. she's a lawyer. incredibly established woman. >> roger ailes holds up the network. glenn beck is a perfect example of a guy that was at headline news then went to work for roger and he was a superstar and then he left roger. >> yeah. >> well, what i don't understand is why -- >> why is it that trump shouldn't be begging megyn kelly's forgiveness not the other way around. >> because he doesn't have to. >> but that's what fox should be di manning of trump, not the other way around. >> you're saying fox should demand the apology? well, they've tried this once before and it ended up they had to back dun to trump after he

said he wasn't going to go on fox news, right? so this is -- this is what's so surprising about fox news is because they've called the shots time and time and time again. they had this skirmish on the smaller level right after the first debate and they saw that, i don't know, so of their viewers are huge trump fans. >> i suspect this will hurt trump. >> do you really? >> i hate to say this. i hate to agree with what ted cruz. you just quoted ted cruz but here's a guy who won't go on because megyn kelly hurt his feelings? even the average trump voter has to scratch his or her head about that. >> that's what the other candidates are saying. that's not what he's saying. he's saying fox news at this point is biased and put out a press release that was so insulting it's not worth it. what does he need to do to go to another debate where the moderators make it about themselves? that's his point. >> this will hurt his numbers in

iowa, although since i've been wrong every time with trump -- >> can i say we're glad to have you on here because i did want to meet the guy -- the japanese fighter on the island in 1953 that felt world war ii was still on. >> '74. >> was it '74? oh, my god. okay, well we'll invite you back after he wins the nomination and you can deny and we'll push it to '74. john heilemann, we'll play some more bill o'reilly in one second but it's surprising that fox stepped in this the way they di did. s is this all about the press release, that somebody at fox overreached, called donald trump's bluff and i guess learned today you just don't that? because -- at the bottom line, quickly, the problem is donald trump doesn't care. if he wins the presidency, that's fine. if he loses the presidency, that's fine. donald trump doesn't play by the rules that everybody else plays

by because at the end of the day, he'd rather be donald trump than be the president. play by his own rules. >> right. i was talking to a senior strategist on a rival campaign yesterday here in des moines who was marveling at trump and the phrase that he used was "he's playing his own game." that's why trump is so difficult to deal with. he's playing his own game. and i think that it's beyond just that he plays by a different set of rules, that he's torn up the rule book. he's sort of just -- everybody else is playing checkers and trump is playing chess. or maybe everyone else is playing chess and trump is playing checkers, i don't know which. but when you're playing your own game, you're playing by your own rules, you have a certain kind of power where no one can touch you in some sense because you're just like operating at a different sphere. i don't know whether trump for a long time has been planning this. they claim that the press release is the thing that tipped him over the edge.

it's possible he's been planning to do this all along. i think it will work to his advantage not disadvantage. >> and here's more bill o'reilly and donald trump last night in a fascinating interview. >> i want you to consider, all right, think about it, say, look, i might come back, forgive, go forward, answer the questions, look out for the folks. just want you to consider it. you owe me milk shakes, i'll take them off the ledger if you consider it. >> well, even though you and i had an agreement that you wouldn't ask me that, which we did, i will therefore forget that you asked me that. but it's up to fox, it's not up to me, bill. >> you're actually telling the truth there. >> you actually did break the agreement. >> you're telling the truth that i said -- >> i told you up front, i said don't ask me that question because it's embarrassing to you and i don't want to embarrass you. >> i'm not going to listen to any political person tell me don't ask me anything.

but you're absolutely an honest man that i said i'll try not to do it but the milk shake thing just overwhelmed me. but i'm asking you to reconsider it. >> a lot of milk shakes. >> i have no idea because i do not watch it last night. >> i did. >> mika, what's the milk shake reference? >> it was begging gone awry. i've never seen anything like it ever in my life and bill o'reilly comes off usually as strong and you're wrong, that's his thing. it was -- >> begging trump. >> he was flailing all over the place and then did not defend the woman whose show follows his. i -- i mean, he just -- like four times, four opportunities to push back. >> there's always -- >> can you imagine if someone said something about anybody on your show, your co-host? >> well, we don't -- >> and by the way he basically said she was stupid. >> we don't let them do that. >> you know what struck me? not for the first time, in a lot of the other campaigns, they

have difficulty dealing with donald trump and his candidacy because they don't it, that i've never seen it. the media has even more difficulty dealing with donald trump because we have never experienced anything like this. everything he does. everything he does i've said it before, you've said it before, that's it, he's done. no, he's not. >> the one thing that was clear to me last night was the insult to his colleague, which he could have punched back. >> on megyn kelly. >> again and again and again easily, handily and it just was -- >> he just let it lie. >> it was the one area where he could have actually been effective an made a strong point and he didn't do joining us from des moines, iowa, john spicer. >> john, how are you going to get trump there tonight? >> i would join with bill o'reilly and hope he shows up. we'd love him there, we love all

the candidates there. the same way we asked senator paul to join the last debate, we hope he'll change his miemd. we can make accommodations up to a close to go ditime but this i an opportunity for all the candidates to give the american people an opportunity to hear them right before the iowa caucuses. >> let me ask you something, we talked about this, you and i talked about this before. what happened at cnbc, you guys didn't like the questions and the way they were asked on cnbc, you go back and look at the questions that megyn kelly and fox asked back in the first debate, judging by that sta standard, should megyn kelly be allowed to be the moderator. >> with all due respect, i think there is a vast difference. what happened at cnbc didn't deal with what was on air, there was stuff that happened before

and on air, what candidates were informed of, some of the prom e promises they felt were portrayed by cnbc. so that had to do more than with what was asked on air. with respect to this, you have a disagreement between a candidate and moderator in terms of the tone and some questions. there's a difference between entity coming out pro and con of a particular candidate and someone disagreeing with the tone and tenor of a moderator. so while i have respect for mr. trump ice decision, that's between him and fox news. and what happened after the cnbc debate was that candidates specifically said that they woulded to deal directly with the networks on issues of moderators and criteria. >> john, it's willie geist. how much contact have you had in the last 48 hours with the trump campaign and what have the negotiations been like? >> there's no negotiations. it's been updates. with each campaign as we head into a debate there's logistical

things we handle. we've stayed in contact with the campaign to make sure they knew they were able to still participate and made sure they weren't going to participate. it's been updates. there are no -- >> do you think you have a good relationship right now? >> absolutely. i think we have a good relationship with each of the candidates. reince priebus talks to each of the candidates, myself and the rest of the senior staff do. but i don't think there's a campaign running for a nomination we don't talk to almost on a daily basis. >> sean, thank you so much. we'll see you in a couple days out there. stay warm. >> thanks, guys. >> chris cillizza, you write in the "washington post" "dear republican establishment, it's too late to stop donald trump or ted cruz. not only has the time for the

establishment -- whoever that is -- to stop trump or cruz almost certainly passed, so, too, has the idea that the establish can't stop either man. don't think that if they could have stopped trump's rise as he offended large swathes of voters the party needs not just this november but in future elections they would have, the answer is yes. simply put, all of the hand wringing and alarm-sounding within the republican establishment is sound and fury signifying nothing. the train has left the station. the boat has left the dock. the genie is out of the bottle. pandora's box is open. >> chris cillizza, it wasn't so long ago you were a trump denier. >> you were. >> now i want you to know you have assured with this column the nomination of marco rubio. [ laughter ] s. >> well, i'm glad i have that much influence. i think this idea -- and i hear it time and time again when i talk to folks -- there's this weird faith, especially in

washington, that they will fix it. well, they're not going to let donald trump be nom the knee. well, they're not going to let ted cruz being the nominee. i keep coming back to if it could have not been the case that donald trump would be either tied or ahead in iowa, way ahead in new hampshire, ahead in south carolina, ahead in every state and getting stronger, the establishment would have already stopped that train. the issue is they can't. they lack the ability to do so, they are very disconnected, frankly, from the base more so than ever before. there's always some disconnect between the establishment or the leaders of the party and the base of the party. never more so than right now. he embodies all that and, frankly, look, i'm with john heilemann. i probably -- i tend to think that one of two things happen, either trump gets a lot of attention that he's buck the establishment again by not going to the debate or he pulls the world wrestling-like move and, you know, that's donald trump's music and two minutes before the debate he strolls into the

debate. either way he gets a massive amount of press attention. >> brett, you have mixed feelings clearly about ted cruz given your column in the "wall street journal." you write in part "maybe i wouldn't be so nauseate bid the junior senator from texas if the cynicism with which he mounted his attack last week on new york values weren't so wholly matched by the sinister taint of an ambitious sew fist who takes his audience for fools. ted cruz is the guy who made donald trump look tolerant and statesmanlike. that's saying something. he's convinced polarization works and persecution complexes sell. i know plenty of new yorkers won't be shy about telling him what he tuought to do with himsf and the rest of the republican party should take their views to heart and maybe even their values to heart." >> i understate. >> reading between the line there is. >> you're not a fan of ted cruz or donald trump, which candidate would you be happy moving forward against bernie sanders or hillary clinton? >> neither, both will lose.

could ted cruz beat bernie sanders? probably, although i think that's iffy. and the problem with what cruz did, it wasn't the attack on new york as in new york city, bill de blasio, it was an attack on all of us who are conservatives but not as conservative as he is, on all of us who share one or another of those new york values. on all the conservative whose swing districts in florida or ohio or virginia and that i think was disqualifying for him. look, reagan had strong views but reagan didn't go out of his way to alienate middle-of-the-road conservatives. the candidate you're going to need -- and it's not going to be trump or cruz -- the party's going to need to win is going to be someone who's going to be a builder and uniter. >> so who is that? who's throughout? >> well, there are probably at least four people who could conceivably do that. and by the way, i don't buy what chris was saying about trump or cruz. essentially the party is split three ways. there's a donald camp, there's a smaller cruz camp, and then

there's about 60%, it just happens at this moment to be split four or five ways. at some point that larger block is going to coalesce around one third candidate. and i suspect whether it's christie, rubio, gilmore -- >> definitely gilmore. >> that will be the candidate who wins the nomination. >> joe and mika, one quick point. i don't totally disagree. the one thing i would say is -- and this is an overly similplisc measure, if you add up any national poll, add up the totals for carson, trump, cruz and fiorina, i guess, and then add up the totals for everyone else he named, jeb, kasich, christie, rubio, it's 60% to 65% in the former category and 35% in the latter category. i think the assumption that if it becomes a one on one that for sure the establishment candidate

will win. i think that may be wrong, though history suggests bret is right. jonathan cape heart, one of the guys making the strong case to be the alternative is marco rubio. he's up in iowa nipping at ted cruz's heels, a strong third place finish there might even help him given his low expectations and he rolls into new hampshire. how do you see the non-trump/cruz wing of the republican field shaking out? >> well, look, marco rubio tonight has to do what he's done in every debate and this is on the debate stage he does very well. he speaks very well for himself, for his candidacy, he puts a happier face on the republican party than the one coming from donald trump and ted cruz. and i think in iowa if he can just have a good showing, third place or forty place, do what bill clinton and turn losses or

not winning the state into a victory by showing that he has a following, take that to new hampshire, take that to south carolina and show and maybe upend things by showing that donald trump or ted cruz doesn't have a lock on it and that slow and steady wins the race. but again as we've been talking about, all these things, all these rules we're used to in politics are out the window because of one man. >> kristen, on the democratic side in iowa, which is so important to bernie sanders, he met with the president yesterday, he was out campaigning last night. the polls are saying they're neck in neck within the margin of error but hillary clinton still leading. what do you make of the types of voters that say they'll vote for bernie sanders? because we were marveling yesterday at the crowds but saw young people. what could that potentially mean? >> berds has done a great job at recreating about half of the obama coalition. so pulling in the very liberal wing of the party, bringing in

younger voters. what bernie sanders is going to run into though is the fact that he's not reconstructed the whole obama coalition. his numbers are not as good with, say, voters from the african-american community, latino community. hillary clinton has actually a fairly good lock on those voters which is why you see her numbers in places like south carolina looking so strong. so the challenge for bernie sanders is, his coalition is he's not reconstructing the obama coalition so cok he put together other pieces? can he pull off union members from hillary clinton who's been endorsed by union leaders to put together people to make it beyond those first two early states? >> what bernie sanders needs more than anything are two or three more establishment candidates. he needs what donald trump has. >> and supporters, brett stevens, chris cillizza, thank you very much. kristen soltis anderson and john heilemann, thank you all. still ahead on "morning

joe" -- >> he's been helpful. he's raised money but we'll get him out, get the old boy -- dust him off. he turns out to be the most popular republican that's alive. so it's not a bad thing to be the brother of a great president and a great brother. >> will the bush brothers hit the trail and try and turn around jeb's fortunes? we'll break down the latest numbers from the nbc news/marist poll. chuck todd and hallie jackson are standing by. plus, another packed house for bernie sanders. but could his gamble on upcoming debates come back to bite him? we'll ask his campaign manager jeff weaver in just a few minutes. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. i think it landed last tuesday.

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new polls out this flour the first three early states show donald trump with the clear momentum. in iowa, the nbc/"wall street journal"/marist poll has trump at 32%, gaining eight point this is month as ted cruz slides to 25%.

a new monmouth poll shows trump gaining 11 points in iowa since december, now at 30% to cruz's 23%. in new hampshire the nbc news/marist poll has trump at 31% and a close race for second between cruz at 12%, rubio and john kasich at 11% and bush and christie at 8% and 7% each. and in south carolina, trump has a 16-point lead over cruz 36% to 20%, rubio at 14% with jeb bush at 9% and ben carson at eight. joining us from des moines, iowa, nbc news political director and moderator of "meet the press" and host of "mtp daily" chuck todd and nbc news correspondent hallie jackson. and attorney and republican strategist on set, he served as national counsel for mitt romney's presidential bids and the bush/cheney presidential campaigns. he played a key role in the 2000 florida recount and he's now an

nbc news/msnbc political analyst and i'm sure you can prognosticate on what will happen next with this experience. what's next. will he show up at the next debate? >> no, he won't be in this debate, he may be in future debates, he may not b not: >> rm hallie jackson, ted cruz, mano-a-mano. >> everything he says donald trump squashes like a bug in a tweet. >> i caught up with one of his events in west des moines and i said do you think donald trump is going to show up and do this and ted cruz hit his message which is he should because it's disrespectful to people in iowa if he doesn't show up on saturday night. worth noting, though, that cruz is hoping to hope to this mano-a-mano debate in one part of the state. trump has a previously scheduled rally in the opposite end of the state. i don't know if that was intentional but the trump campaign has been formally invited by the cruz campaign. >> chuck, we've been talking

about trump and cruz to an obsessive level, marco rubio seems to be making a little move, a slight move in iowa. what are you hearing on the ground out there? >> well, look, there was a time that they were building an organization out here and there was a time that you got the sense that rubio was going to go all in and some time in december and january he just -- they were hesitant. because i think they were worried about raising expectations. they're desperate to make third place relevant. and i have to tell you, looking at our numbers, right now that a good third place finish. if he's third, closer to second than he is to fourth, then maybe there's something out of it. now i'm still a little skeptical of the idea that he can get momentum being third place because there will be so much attention on who finishes first and second on the republican side. oh, by the way, so much attention between what happens between clinton and sanders. the hope that rubio has that

somehow third place will be worth its own story and get this extra momentum, i'm skeptical because of so many other aspects of this campaign in we'll all be covering on caucus night. >> all right. so let's go to 30,000 feet and go back to hallie on the ground who says ted cruz keeps coming back. could this go then to a brokered con sflen convention? >> well, there are no brokers left in the republican party is it will be a contested contention. it depends on how many lanes you get out of the first states. by a matter of mathematics if it's donald trump being chased by ted cruz or marco rubio, no. but if ted cruz wins iowa and does well, if donald trump wins new hampshire, marco rubio sort of -- or one of the establishment candidates, makes a credible performance. then you have three people. you have to have a majority of delegates. so just by math if there are three credible candidates coming out of february or march 1, sure. >> so hallie, you say cruz keeps coming back.

does he have the ground game to follow it up? >> here in iowa i would say he certainly does. i think the campaign has put this time and resources into trying to mobilize people on the ground. a get out the vote effort. what they're doing door to door in neighborhoods and personal ways is potentially significant on what the turnout will be monday night. we talk about that all the time. look at the poll numbers. there's a big difference between whether 120,000 people come out to caucus, whether it 's 250 -- 200,000. i was at a church talking with pastors yesterday, one of the most interesting thing is trump leading cruz among evangelicals by several percentage points. while that's close, the fact that trump seems to be picking up momentum within that group of people could be really significant for him? >> incredible. mike? >> while trump is lead iing in most of the polls, there's a huge difference between getting

people to vote and getting people to go around a caucus and hang around a middle school gym for half an hour, 45 minutes. what's your sense of trump's ground game, his organization to get those people to go to these middle school gymnasiums? >> i think it's hit or miss. what i've seen is they certainly have an organization. they certainly have a plan when they have these rallies and i've seen people wait in zero degrees in ottumwa, iowa, wait in line there. so you have to say if they're willing to wait in line, why aren't they sending a half hour at a caucus. but we'll find out there is no evidence right now the there that there is an increase in voter registration, not on the republican side, not on the democratic side and both sanders and trump are relyi on this ide of new people show ing ing up. the trump people and the sanders

people believe this is something they'll only worry about on caucus night but you have to say, if we thought there was going to be a dramatic increase in turnout, you think we would see in the the voter rolls and we don't see it. >> ben, quick point about that before we go? >> chuck is right about that. this is an existential moment for every campaign when they start kicking the tires for their 1681 caucus chairman and find there are holes so all the campaigns right flow in sort of semipanic moment to get the turnout that they need. >> chuck todd, hallie jackson, ben ginsburg, thank you all. coming up, bernie sanders' campaign manager jeff weaver joins us just ahead.

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i ran into a guy the other day, he said "i'm for trump, he tells it like it, is he's going to make america great again." i said "who's your second choice?" he said "bernie sanders." bernie sanders came to tucson,

arizona, a couple months ago and 13,000 people showed up. i think i have a degree of acceptance in arizona. i couldn't draw 13,000 people to a rally in tucson, arizona. and look at how he's doing in the polls in new hampshire now. it isn't just because he's from a neighboring state. he has tapped into that vaein o dissatisfaction on the other end. so we're in for the most interesting political campaign. >> bernie sanders campaign manager jeff weaver joins us next to talk about that. we'll get their campaign's debate strategy. which they will be and won't be participating now that the rules have been changed. >> is hillary trying to change the rules? >> she wants to do a debate and it's amazing, the dnc -- >> now they want to debate? >> yes. because -- >> i didn't think they wanted to debate. >> now that they're neck in neck they need them. >> but wasn't debbie wasserman schultz trying to stop debates? >> yes, because that looked like it would help hillary. >> but she's for them now? >> because that now it looks

like it would help hillary. >> i'm so confused. we'll be right back. >> he's right, you know. it -- changes is difficult and what this man is asking of us is to be the machine now. i give you bernie sanders. ♪ i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet? father, why can't we have directv like the macgregors do? we're settlers, son. we settle for things. like having cable instead of directv. hey, jebediah, how's it going? working the land. hoping for a fertile spring.

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papa! you're no son of mine! or perhaps it's time to seize the day. don't just see opportunity, seize it! (applause) >> i am delighted to be here with you tonight in mason city. my opponent is not in iowa tonight, she is raising must be from a philadelphia investment firm. [ boos ] . frankly, i would rather be here with you [ cheers and applause ] >> that was bernie sanders going after hillary clinton for attending a fund-raiser at the headquarters of a financial firm in philadelphia. while in philadelphia, clinton also met with 50

african-american faith leaders. early in the day, she campaigned at a bowling alley in iowa. joining us now, we have the presidential campaign manager for senator bernie sanders, jeff weaver, he previously served as chief of staff in sanders' house and senate offices. first of all, how is the campaign going? >> the campaign is going fantastic out here in iowa. people are coming out to see the senator traveling around the state in his bernie bus and last night we had 1100 people in mason city. everywhere we go there's an enthusiastic reception for senator sanders so we're pleased about what's happening on the ground in iowa. >> we see a lot of young people out there and i can't help but looking at the crowd and say i've seen this before where have -- oh, wait, howard dean, 2004. how can you assure your supporters that you have learned the lessons of howard dean in 2004 and you'll get the vote out for these younger voters?

>> well, we have a very, very effective organization here on the ground and i have to say a lot has changed since 2004 in terms of your ability to communicate with voters, particularly young voters through social media and the internet so we're confident we're going to have an ability to bring people out on caucus night. and, look, the truth is both campaigns have enough support in iowa to win. the question is going to be turnout and we're working very, very hard to bring folks out. >> let me bring from the "washington post." pretty tough editorial against your candidate. "beth israel deaconess medical center assures democrats concerned about the political obstacles in the way of his agenda that he will lead a political revolution that will help him clear the capital of corruption and influence peddling. this self-regarding analysis implies a national consensus favoring his agenda when there is none and ignores the many legitimate checks and balances in the political system that he can not wish away. mr. sanders is a lot like many other politicians, when reality

is ideologically or politically inconvenient, he and his campaign talks around it. mr. sanders' success does not show the country is ready for a political revolution, it merely proves many progressives like being told everything they want to hear." >> jeff, first of all, do you want to respond to that editorial? >> well, i guess we'll put them in the undecided column, right? listen, it's no secret that the political establishment, the media establishment, the corporate establishment is not that happy about senator sanders' success around the country. let's be clear, we've seen general election polling, and i know it's a long way off from the general election. but in general election polling senator sanders beats all the republic republicans s ss so that's the reality. they may not like his agenda but people throughout do. that includes many, many

independents and some republicans so i think they're overstating their position. >> given the tone of the editorial, why the hesitation about jumping on to another debate next week before the new hampshire primary without the quid pro quo that senator sanders mentioned that let's sign on for three more debates mr. us the one before -- why not grab this debate? >> this is the issue. we've been living under this six-debate schedule that was imposed on us from the beginning of this campaign through the fall. senator sanders called for more debate, governor o'malley was calling for more and secretary clinton's campaign seemed to be very happy about how many debates we were having but the dynamics have changed and suddenly they want a new debate. we're happy to have a debate in new hampshire but we want to have debates going forward as well. we're going to be in this all the way to the convention. we want to make sure people across this country have a chance to see senator sanders. we won't engage in a process

when the only time we schedule debates is when the clinton campaign feels they're under pressure and need to have another debate. that's not the way to have debates. >> so what -- after iowa, you go on to new hampshire, you're well ahead there. how do you turn things around in south carolina? we showed numbers that showed hillary clinton beating bernie by 30, 35 point there is. what's the problem in south carolina? >> there have been a number of polls. last week there were two different polls in south carolina that showed him 20 points behind which is substantially closer than yours and we're closing the gap. the truth is the more people get to see senator sanders in these states, the more they support him. we're just starting television advertising in south carolina, we have not been on tv there. he is obviously not as well known as secretary clinton and i think what will happen there is what happened here in iowa which is when we came to this state, senator sanders was in single digits. now he's close to winning so i think you'll see as he spends

more time in south carolina as the election draws nearer as we are on television speaking to voters, the vote will move in south carolina as well. >> all right, thank you so much for being with us. we greatly appreciate it. >> happy to be here. >> and i'm sure we'll see you in iowa in a couple days. >> see you at java joe's. take care. >> good luck. >> reminder, we're heading out to the iowa caucuses next week for shows at java joe's in des moines. join us live on monday and tuesday. stop by but come early. we'll also be doing live music the night before. more on that coming up as well. ♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪

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♪ iowa, iowa, winter, spring, summer or fall ♪ ♪ sewing our crops, singing our songs, not waking until harvest time ♪ ♪ oh, oh, oh, iowa, iowa, winter, spring, summer or fall ♪ >> i think the audience was into it. is he still singing? >> when is martin o'malley coming out? >> i think that marked the first time iowa's cows started booing instead of mooing. >> that's mean. >> but maybe -- >> ferguson has reached a tentative deal with the justice department. >> it's to bring sweeping changes to its policing

protocols. 127-page proposal calls for the city's police department to reorient its use of force and for training guidelines toward deescalation and avoiding force. it also calls for the appointment of an independent monitor and requires all patrol officers and jail personnel to wear body cameras and microphones, those must be -- >> that's great. >> -- in place within 180 days. the deal comes ten months after the justice department released a scathing report describing ferguson as a city where, quote, the police department and court operate not as independent bodies but as a single money making venture. and where investigators found that officers stopped and arrested people without cause and used excessive force almost exclusively against african-americans. the city council is scheduled to vote on the proposal next month. >> you know, mike, we often talk here about how cops are unfairly blamed. they are sort of this sweeping

condemnation of all police officers when 99% of them do a great and honorable job, but in ferguson that was the system, completely run amok. >> after years and years. >> years and years of taking advantage. >> different forces taking over. >> of especially black community members. >> oh, clearly. within the next five years most major departments and small and medium-sized departments across this country police officers will have body cameras. with body cameras they do a couple of things. one, they hopefully point out any wrongdoing by police officers but on the other side they point out more importantly 99% of most police officers perform their jobs admirably and legally. >> as we've been saying here for a year now, the only people that body cameras hurt are bad cops. >> so the -- >> small percentage. >> university of missouri assistant professor who was caught on video for calling for --

>> some muscle. >> -- some muscle to remove a journalist from a protest last fall was now been suspended. the university board announced a decision to suspend assistant communications professor melissa click pending an investigation last night. click gained national note right in november after this encounter during a protest on campus. >> i'm media, can i talk to you? >> no, you need to get. out. you need to get out. >> no, i don't. >> you need to get out. >> i actually don't. >> all right. hey, who wants to help me get this reporter out of here? i need some muscle over here. help me get him out. >> the suspension came two days after click was charged with third degree assault, a misdemeanor in connection with the incident. she has pleaded not guilty. >> i'm sorry. that sounds -- first of all, i was outraged when this happened, i'm not laughing about this incident. >> no it's terrible. what? >> listening to the reporter who

i have got great respect for, he just reminds me of my kids. joey, you need to go and clean that up right now. no, i don't. why? i'm joking, joey. >> no, it's joey. >> i love that, no, i don't. yes, you do. no, it's not. i don't think so. it's the first time i heard -- >> kind of feel her pain. >> she's screaming and yelling, he's like, no, i don't. >> you kind of feel her pain. >> no, i don't. >> she was wrong. >> a professor that trample else on the first amendment and says use muscle. >> are you defending her? >> no, i'm feeling her pain because kids had been -- >> no. >> that was so many things run amok right there. >> that was wrong. >> safe spaces and whatever. >> she was having a bad day. >> having a bad year now. life apparently imitates art when it comes to last minute debate desperation. >> no it doesn't. >> out ahead of iowa and new hampshire.

take a look. >> me and my bedroom mirror. >> we rent the hall across from the main debate, you invite all the other candidates, we stir up the good government groups, editorial writers. >> because the dover harold doesn't get to decide who is a viable candidate for the highest office in the land. >> can we use my debate rules? >> whatever rules you want. get ready to debate. >> donald trump has plans for his own tonight while the rest of the field gets ready to debate. >> no, i don't. that was donald. no, i don't. >> no, bill, i don't. later why bernie sanders pretty much has to win iowa and if these folks go to the poll he has a chance. look at that crowd. he needs to win iowa, though, to have a shot at winning the nomination. more on that straight ahead.

fox news still trying to get people excited about the sedate. >> thursday night it's the fox news debate. sure, donald trump won't be here but that doesn't mean this debate won't blow your foxing minds. >> we had -- we balanced every budget. >> wake up, mother truckers. ben carson is about to open your head and drop a sponge in it. >> the value of personal responsibility, hard work, creativity. >> plus the triple decker disaster, cruz, case i can, christie. >> and rand paul. >> the fox news republican debate, we are totally not freaking out right now.

>> oh, that was funny. >> oh, my gosh, mother truckers. okay. >> mother truckers and then ben carson. by the way, we never talked about it, the guy that imitates ben carson on "saturday night live." >> so funny. >> sometimes it's like chevy chase as gerald ford was so bad that it actually made it funny. >> yes. >> he has a layer that ben carson doesn't even have. what's that? i don't even know what it is. >> that's what i'm saying. he just makes it up. i'm sure if i were ben carson i wouldn't think it was funny. >> you're faded enough from the spotlight that you go with it. oh, right, that's him. >> we have a lot to talk about. we're getting more information about donald trump's event tonight at 9:00 from his campaign in iowa. >> okay. >> guess what's happening, at drake university, it is thursday -- thursdays hurt. welcome to "morning joe." >> any day you wake up before 4:00 hurts. >> it hurts. >> and when you are tweeting about rem after 11:00 at night.

>> who is doing that? >> a bad choice. >> milk was a bad choice. no, i was tweeting about rem. >> we have veteran columnist and msnbc contributor did. >> the vet. >> mike. no -- >> he's legendary. >> mike, i'm saying it out of respect. >> hold on a second. >> you're undermining me. >> on the count of three, legendary. one, two, three, legendary. >> legendary. >> exactly. legendary. >> oh, gosh. >> add epic. >> mike is amazing. he has been writing for decades quite frankly. >> you did it again. >> are you getting your book done? >> let's move on. come on, let's move on. >> is it going to be done -- >> this week. >> mike is the only guy that would even think willie geist of

going up and interviewing a former president about a book he was writing and then just go, nah. i'm not going to write the book. >> he lost interest. >> i had a good time with him. >> you write in poetry, you have to finish the book. >> anyway. >> in washington republican pollster and columnist at the washington examiner kristen soltis anderson and in des moines iowa, john heilemann. nicolle wallace is here, too. >> let's talk about it. come on, let's talk about it. are you and willie were absolutely sure. >> yeah. >> that this was all a setup. i kind of -- >> i'm still hoping. >> you guys convinced me it was a setup. >> i'm still trying to find out. >> because at the end of the day, you know, we always talk about how start donald trump is with the media. roger ailes, who is smarter? i mean, the guy -- i mean, the guy has been brilliant every step of the way, but, willie, i

mean, this just doesn't make sense for roger. it makes sense for donald trump, he avoids a debate, doesn't have to answer pesky questions, he once again shows strength and he has his own event tonight which will probably get a lot more attention than anything people say in the debate. how does that help roger ailes? >> yesterday i was at 72.3% that he was going to be at the debate. after watching trump's performance last night i am down to 41% that he will be at the debate. he's booking this event, we have been in touch with the campaign -- >> they're eight minutes apart from each other. >> i still believe there is a chance donald trump walks on that stage. >> you think it might be like dion sanders, they're eight minutes apart where dion place football then takes a helicopter and is dropped in the middle of atlanta fulton county stadium to play baseball. >> the trump copter. >> i watched the interview with bill o'reilly last night and that was painful. >> i think it's getting personal. watch this. >> okay. >> watch this. >> in your christian faith there

is a very significant tenet and that's the tenet of forgiveness and i think you should forgive not only journalists who come at you in ways you don't like, but i think you should be the bigger man and say, do you know what, i didn't like it and you should make that case all day long, but i'm not going to take any action against it. you know, don't you think that's the right thing to do? >> it probably is, but, you know, it's called an eye for an eye i guess also, you can look at it that way. >> no. no. no. no. >> you are taking -- >> if you are the christian the eye for the eye rule goes out. here is what it is, turning the other cheek. >> you're taking this much more seriously than i am. i'm not taking it seriously, i'm going to have a wonderful time tomorrow night at 9:00 at drake university. >> but you're depriving the people of seeing you. >> no, i'm not. >> in a forum they need to see you in. come on, it's about the country. >> the press will be there and everybody dr we are going to help a lot of veterans whereas

fox is not giving anything to the veterans, i'm giving 100% to the veterans. i'm going to make a substantial donation. >> i want you to consider, all right, think about it, say, look, i might come back, forgive, go forward, answer the questions, look out for the folks. just want you to consider it. you owe me milk shakes, i will take them off the ledger if you consider it. >> well, even though you and i had an agreement that you wouldn't ask me that, which we did, i will, therefore, forget that you asked me that, but it's not up to me, bill. >> you're actually telling the truth there. >> they broke the agreement -- >> you're telling the truth -- >> i told you up front i said don't ask me that question because it's an embarrassing question. >> i'm not going to listen to anybody, i'm not going to listen to any political person telling me don't ask me anything. you are absolutely an honest man

that i said i will try not to do it, but the milk shake thing just overwhelmed me. >> true. >> i'm asking you to recanner it. >> there are so many things there. >> what's happening? >> would you ever do that? the begging part where you're like begging for your network president -- >> i think we proved on this show that we don't beg on this show. i do we are when we got disconnected from donald and it was dead silent on the set here and nicolle said, i am sweating from every for. >> you didn't like that. you were uncomfortable. >> nervous. everybody was nervous. but no i think in my subtle -- subtle words i used yesterday i'd rather set myself on fire than beg somebody to do something. >> so hearing from the trump campaign that they are setting up quite an event tonight at drake, going to see a lot of vets on stage and honor them and going to be raising a lot of money and getting more details as we speak. >> all right. >> they will be talking about the problems at the va. >> willie, donald trump, look --

the guy looks like he is in the cat bird seat. again, i think fox has walked into a trap that actually feeds into every one of his strengths. he now has the most powerful network for republicans -- or just i mean -- it's an indispensable network for republicans, now has their most powerful person begging him to be on a debate stage. >> begging. >> as i said yesterday i think in that statement they were calling his bluff and i don't think it was meant to completely taunt donald trump, it was in the style of statements they put out in the past, i think they were trying to make a joke about the whole situation where he put up the twitter poll and asked whether he should do the debate and it backfired. i think they walked into a different kind of character, somebody who is in the going to play the game as he said. i think roger ailes probably thought this is the first salvo, trump will fire back, we will talk behind the scenes and it will be go for everybody. at this point it doesn't look like it's going to be good for

fox news and i think it may not have worked out the way they thought it would. >> donald trump has broken all the rules this campaign and he has always been three steps ahead of everybody else. i had somebody last night ask me, they said you guys for six months you guys have given him positive news coverage. i said, no, we just six months ago when everybody said he couldn't win everybody around this table said he could and when everybody was saying he didn't have a chance to get above 20%, we were saying he could. and we've been proven right every step of the way. donald trump has blown up every convention about politics and now he's doing it with republican politics which says you can only win by being on seek wees to fox news. if i ran for anything i would be on seek wees to fox news. nobody has the power for whatever reason he can do it for donald trump to do what he does. i don't get it. >> it's all beyond me. i can't figure anything out anymore when it comes to donald trump. i really can't.

fox news never should have issued that statement that they issued. a news organization shouldn't be issuing a statement that sounds as if it came from an opposite campaign. i don't know that, you know -- yesterday megyn kelly was going back at donald trump saying things. i like megyn kelly but she shouldn't get herself involved in a back and forth with a candidate for president. >> especially if she's going to be a moderator. >> correct. and that's the thing. if she was going to be a moderator in a future debate, how can you -- mark halperin, i don't care -- heilemann, i mean, any network -- you guys are like commodities -- at any network i don't see how anybody, any candidate, would allow themselves to go before somebody who he had been openly hostile to and she had been openly pos tile back to.

it's been a war of words. >> yeah, joe, i think that's clearly right and i can understand trump's position here. everyone has already said on the show they walked into a trap, they set themselves up and, i mean, one doesn't want to sound prigish about this but it is the case a lot of people say fox news isn't a news organization. generally i like to defend fox news to the extent it's possible and say they have an ideological slant but they are a real news organization but in this instance they behaved i think pet plantly and not like any news organization should ever behave and they have opened themselves up to criticism. he's winning this battle entirely. there was no backlash yesterday. he's playing no price for this and i think he will benefit from it if anything. >> fox news and their pr department have always been famous. i've heard journalists who work for other news organizations say time and time again i wish minus organization would defend me

like roger defends people that work for him and maybe that's what this comes down to. maybe roger is saying what donald is saying, which is i would rather lose than let somebody take cheap shots at one of minus anchors. >> roger and bill o'reilly remind me of you the way you would defend your female colleagues, to me listening to bill o'reilly plead with trump to forgive megyn for engaging in journalism i felt like -- >> i'm sorry, i don't think bill o'reilly was defending megyn. he never said anything back. >> he kind of let every one of mows fast balls -- >> i will tell you what i think and i'm sure i am a minority opinion. the original sin that megyn committed was asking donald trump about his language on women. i think he's proving her point on engaging in a hot war against the only woman in the prominent woman in the prominent role of a prime time newscaster at fox

news. i don't think megyn asked him anything that is a particular outlier -- >> george w. bush had received -- >> i'm so happy you raised -- he did more interviews and debates -- >> it is a great point if lair had asked george w. bush a question with the edge -- it was really a campaign speech disguised as a question that she asked and i think she kept going after him. you would have been the first to go crazy. >> listen, i think that difficult questions posed to candidates are part of what you -- but listen i think his supporters feel exactly as you guys have all said. it's a show of strength. i think some women if you get to the general election would think it would have been an opportunity -- >> i'm asking you as the president's press person -- >> he called me lots of names. >> we're talking about a moderator for a debate who is

supposed to be above the fray. you would never allow john mccain or george w. bush -- >> john mccain and george w. bush both did debates with mod rarts they would not have collected. >> you're dodging the question. >> george bush sat down with all sorts of journalists and mod rarts that were hostile towards him. >> i'm talking about moderators. >> i think it's an ability for trump to debate bigness. there's no debate about him being strong. >> he's doing something that everybody has been building up over years and that is as television totally branches out into cable and online you get a lot of moderators who make it about themselves and it wasn't only the fox debate that we're talking about here and i think he's saying, do you know what, i'm not going through another debate where it's all about the moderators, it's supposed to be about the debates, i've done six, i've won them all -- i've won them all, what more do i need to do?

>> he is in first place and standing next to guys that are, what, 10, 15 points behind him is a greater risk for him than it is the others. i don't refute the strategy. >> could you ever believe that he could get in the middle of a fray with fox news and nobody has laid a glove on him. >> nobody. still ahead on "morning joe" it's all about the benjamins, franklin, that is. hillary clinton was in philadelphia last night speaking to a banking institution. and in just a little bit we will go to three front lines in iraq where sunni, shiite and forces are fighting for their life. first, bill karins with a check of the forecast. >> you don't think of florida as having severe weather, yesterday they had a couple tornadoes, one in broward county, it was strong enough to take some cars across the highway, flipped up a couple vehicles, winds were 100 miles an hour. there was one serious injury with that twister.

today we are focusing on florida. we have a rj ma nl risk of severe weather. west palm beach, fort lauderdale and the keys. a line of pretty strong thunderstorms has now just paralleling key west, heading through the everglades and will a right shortly in the miami area. so far no tornadoes with this, we will see some pretty strong winds and there's flood watches through this region. yesterday they had 3 to 4 inches of rain, probably will pick up another 3 to 4 inches. the cold front heads to the south, we will see that initial line. later this afternoon we will get another line of storms from fort myers to veer row beach and this will push southward, there is the risk of an isolated tornado or two, the fort lauderdale and miami areas keep an eye to the sky. by 8:00 p.m. we are completely cleared out. rest of the country january thaw. as we head through the weekend into monday all eyes on iowa. there will be a powerful storm coming out of colorado on monday that should not have any effects

here in iowa. we should be looking at pretty clear conditions there, no problem at all. this storm will be over the top of iowa by the time we get to tuesday. so tuesday the day after there could be a blizzard in iowa, but for the caucus day on monday we're looking fine. we will keep an eye on that forecast throughout the next couple days. new york city what a snow melt we will have over the next couple days, could even hit 50 degrees by the time we get to the beginning of next week. you're watching "morning joe." we will be right back. k of myses more of a control... enthusiast. mmm, a perfect 177-degrees. and that's why this road warrior rents from national. i can bypass the counter and go straight to my car. and i don't have to talk to any humans, unless i want to. and i don't. and national lets me choose any car in the aisle. control. it's so, what's the word?... sexy. go national. go like a pro.

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there are new numbers out this morning and our new msnbc "wall street journal" maris poll which shows a statistical tie in iowa among the top democrats. hillary is ahead of bernie sanders 48 to 45 but that lead is within the poll's margin of error. in new hampshire sanders continues to look like a run

away train. he leads clinton by 19 points in our new poll out of the granite state after leading by just 4 points earlier this month. but in south carolina it is hillary clinton who is on top by a wide margin. there she leads sanders 64 to 27. running away with south carolina. senator -- yes. yes. >> if cruz loses iowa, new hampshire and south carolina. >> yeah. >> he goes home. >> well, you know, for cruz -- cruz really needs -- cruz really needs to win iowa. that was the democrats. >> sorry. >> he's legendary. >> veteran journalists think that way. >> you were just --? you just hit the poll results we did a couple hours ago. it's like that commercial where timing is everything, mike. >> i got something on cruz. >> somebody tells you i love you and you're sitting across the table it's like that commercial, if you just sit at stair at them and they go up and walk off it's

two late to say i love you back. >> senator sanders was in washington, d.c. with president obama. it was just their second meeting in the seven years since president obama took office and came just days after the president heaped praise on hillary clinton in an interview with "politico," but after their meeting in the oval office which lasted for over an hour sanders says the president has been nothing but fair throughout the primary process. >> the president and i discussed this morning a number of issues, foreign policy issues, domestic issues, occasionally a little bit of politics. but i enjoyed the meeting and i thought it was a very positive and constructive meeting. what the president has tried to do, what vice president biden has tried to do is to be as even-handed as they could be. and i know there was some discussion the other day about a "politico" interview where he was tipping the scale towards secretary clinton.

i don't believe that at all. i think he and the vice president have tried to be fair and even-handed in the process and i expect they will continue to be that way. >> let's ming in msnbc political correspondent kasie hunt live from des moines, iowa. iowa looks like a dead heat four days out. >> that's right. on that flight back from washington after bernie sanders met at the white house he and his advisors are trying to figure out -- were trying to figure out just how negative bernie sanders is going to be willing to go in order to pull out a win here in iowa. remember, this is a guy who when he stood on the capitol steps made his announcement he said i have never run a single negative ad in my political career, i don't plan to start now but that may be pointed out as expectations getting higher for him. is he willing to grind that out? we got a little taste of it at a rally yesterday in mason city. >> i am delighted to be here

with you tonight in mason city. my opponent is not in iowa tonight, she is raising money from a philadelphia investment firm. frankly, i would rather be here with you. [ applause ] >> so the question being whether or not sanders is willing to ratchet up those wall street attacks, in collateral. we should note that hillary clinton while on her swing through the east coast also meeting with african-american faith leaders. she has a particular strength among those voters and it's something that as that polling shows, particularly in south carolina, could carry her through the long run in a way that sanders might not be able to sustain. but i will say it's going to be interesting to see how sanders supporters react if he does go negative against hillary clinton. i was over at their head quarts yesterday, it's as you would expect, it feels like a college dorm room and it's all

universally positive. people are excited about bernie sanders. there is not a lot of discussion about why hillary clinton wouldn't be good for the country. >> so quickly, casey, let me get this straight. hillary clinton had a fundraiser at a bank in philadelphia yesterday? >> you heard the man. >> wow. that's interesting timing. >> what bank? >> investment -- investment bank. >> for -- >> financial institutions. i don't know. >> i'm just curious. if you can pick up a quarter million dollars in an afternoon that must be nice. all right. kasie, thank you so much. >> it tells you what she's expecting going forward, right? to actually take the risk of ending up with a headline like this a few days out from iowa, they are suddenly preparing for a really long slog financially speaking. bernie sanders is right behind her and he can go back to these small donors that he has over

and over and over again and so it really does underscore this narrative. i think you see it in the debate strategy, too. why does bernie sanders want to have three debates or have her commit to having three debates in march and april pretty far off, doesn't want to do one next week necessarily. i think this helps explain that. >> thank you, says si. coming up on "morning joe," the new issue of "time magazine" that will have anyone who has ever owned a barbie doll interested. we'll explain. and in just a moment ben anderson is here. his new report on what the fight is really like right now in iraq. into a new american centur. born with a hunger to fly and a passion to build something better. and what an amazing time it's been, decade after decade of innovation, inspiration and wonder. so, we say thank you america for a century of trust, for the privilege of flying higher and higher, together.

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[ speaking foreign language ] man, that is so fascinating. that's something. >> that was a look at the vice special report fighting isis. joining us now correspondent and producer for the emmy winning series vice on hbo and the host of this vice special report, ben anderson. >> also with us bianna. >> ben, it's the fascinating look into the state of behind of an isis fighter. >> oh, my god.

>> at the end of the interview one of the more compelling parts about the entire interview. >> i said as a throw away question what would you do if you weren't captured and captured me? he said i would kill you without hesitation and then shook my hand and said i wish we had more time to speak. >> so what was your -- what was your take away from this interview? the mindset of an isis fighter? >> we interviewed three of them. the first two said, look, life under the malaki government was hell, when isis came along, they said we offer you security and a chance for revenge so we joined. we heard christians say the same thing, life was so bad in iraq when isis came along they welcomed him. the third guy said i joined because we will take over the world and he was completely convinced. >> the first two were not rational but you could attach

their logic to it as far as being angry at perceived slights or slights from the west. >> they all said they had been captured and tortured many time by the malaki company, the basic service denied the nonshiite communities. >> as you know we have a presidential campaign going on in this country, a couple of the people who have run for president their way of dealing with isis, one, ted cruz, we're going to carpet bomb isis, sarah palin said we're going to kick isis' ass. i know you have been over multiple times. do you think there is a way that you can kill a belief, an ideology with bombs and bullets? >> no. >> what do you do? >> the wars in iraq and afghanistan are still raging and we seem to have forgotten that that approach doesn't work. there are no simple solutions to a problem like this. some of the solutions i'm hearing being put together are

astounding. i know 15 year olds who could come up with a smarter solution. >> bob gates. >> exactly. >> pretty much the same thing. >> of course, there are other foreign players with their interests in the legion as well, russia with being one of them, i know that you interviewed a russia foreign minister and he weighed in on the issue as well. what did he have to say? >> russia is seeing this as a way to come in from the cold, feeling so ostrasized, seeing it as a way to snub obama and america and what the u.s. and u.k. have been unable to do. but they're concerned that isis have 10, 15,000 fighters from chech knee a who may come back to russia one day. >> prime minister, not foreign minister. they're facing it as well. >> they actually have a larger fear within russia, begin the muslim population. >> russia is trying the exact policy as you described earlier, they've hit 20 hospitals so far,

killed over 1,000 civilians. i'm fairly sure that's not going to work just like it didn't work for the russians in afghanistan. >> what else did you learn in this interview take away, beyond the matter of fact approach to death and destruction and even, you know, murder and right in your face, what did you take away that you learned about the minds of these people? >> the conditions that led to them seeing isis as attractive still exists in iraq. even if isis is defeated -- >> when you're talking about the conditions you're talking about an iranian backed shia government in baghdad? >> the country is divided in three. the government controlled is shia militias controlled by an iranian general, the kurd stands are controlled by kurds fighting for their own state. >> and of course the sunnis. let me ask you this. let's just say moving forward and i know you can't -- you have no crystal ball here any more than anybody else, but the first two that you talked to that

actually attached it to facts that were actually on the ground, not that we are going to build a caliphate that is going to take over the whole world, is there possibly a political solution if you do what joe biden was talking about doing in 2002 which is that you split iraq up, an unnatural country created by the west into three areas and you actually have a legitimate sunni government that actually is not being run out of tehran through baghdad. >> some people have said that's already happened, it's already three separate states, but having that as three legitimate states with their own governments, one of which won't be isis, that's a very long-term. >> we have another clip from vice special report, fighting isis. take a look. [ speaking foreign language ]

[ speaking foreign language ] >> the west has tried to come up with propaganda devices to prevent young people from france, england, western europe from being attracted to isis. we've been incredibly lame in our attempts to do this. why would he belong with isis? what could be done in your mind? do you think there is anything we could do to come up with some device, propaganda devices to sort of slow this down? >> we are failing miserably in coming out with a counter

message. young muslims around the world are doing a good job and ridiculing isis. baghdadi put out a message to all muslims worldwide saying rise up in your own country and kill the infidels and thousands of responses came back ridiculing him, one said, sorry, mate, it's united versus chelsea. >> that is so funny. so we -- when you look at the clip, of course, we are all thinking about the tragedy of 2002 and 2003 and the united states' blunders that we made as a country going into iraq. but you talked about life under malaki and i'm just wondering whether we look back 30 years from now and george w. bush of course one of the causes going in there, one of the chief cause going in there, maybe america leaving too early being another, but also something that david

ignatius told me one time, that there was an election, we had a chance to get malaki out of there and for some reason the united states including desperately to malaki. talking to these fighters, is it malaki, are the conditions under malaki that we may look back and see as one of our bigger mistakes in the later period in iraq? >> as you said, allowing malaki to have a second term despite his awful sectarian record, i think that would be one of the biggest mistakes of the entire war. >> and is that the resentment against -- against the west first, but what was the tripping point was life under malaki in '08, '09, '10. >> if you were a kurd, zeety, christian, sunni in iraq life under malaki was awful. >> vice special report fighting isis airs on hbo this coming sunday, january 31st at 10:00 p.m. to kick off the show's fourth

season. ben anderson, thank you very much. great work. still ahead, this morning is a historic day in the toy industry. as barbie -- this is like a major -- >> barbie gets a dramatic makeover and do you know what, until i had a daughter -- >> you didn't really care. >> -- and actually saw a barbie i didn't care about it. once you have a daughter and you are like what's the body image? >> 57 years later she is getting a makeover. we will show you what the doll looks like and why mat tell is making the change. was engineered...

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managing editor of "time magazine." she's here to reveal this week's cover story titled now can we stop talking about my body, what barbie's new shape says about american beauty and that's it. actually, there's several shapes. >> several shapes. good morning. this is a good news cover.

>> if you've got a daughter it's a great news cover. >> if you are a woman it's a great news cover. barbie after 57 years of a very unrealistically proportioned figure barbie now comes in petite, tall and curvy. >> what finally spurred this change? >> you could say that mattel -- this is by the way a billion dollar global business. so the answer to your question is money. >> multi-fold. >> part of it is sales. part of it is barbie has been a lagging indicator in terms of cultural feelings about body types and body acceptance. i think that you can't be alive today without realizing that curvy bodies are just as iconic as stick thin ones. we see people like kim kardashian, beyonce, lena dunham, these people don't have barbie bodies. it's been important for mothers for decades have been complaining that barbie creates this unrealistic ideal for their

daughters and body image problems are serious, as you know if you have young boys. >> it's an epidemic at this point. >> you could describe it that way. so the idea here is mattel is watching up with the times and trying to, you know, broaden the scope of their products. what's interesting, the challenge is that barbie, the original barbie, blond, blue eyed. >> all american. >> she has amazing brand recognition. >> right. >> from a sales point of view it's also a risk. when you diversify you change the perception of what barbie is, but you have to figure in today's world that that's a good thing. >> are they still selling her. >> they are still selling her. >> the exact one? the impossible. >> i believe so. >> you have the option as a parents. >> you have the option. >> i saw my daughters' barbies and i was like, oh, my god. >> yeah. >> like this is -- this sends such a negative message.

>> clear message at such a young age. >> clear negative message at an early age. >> it's not explicit but it's there and consider this, 92% of girls ages 3 through 12 have owned or own a barbie. it is pervasive. >> what percent? >> 92. >> i wasn't allowed. >> you weren't allowed. >> no, they just let her play with rocks. >> me, too. but this is also a business move as you mentioned on mattel's part because there is more competition in the field, goldy blocks is introducing math and science oriented dolls for girls. >> lego has taken over as the biggest toy company in the world and lego and other companies have joined this movement in the past few years. let's make sure we're creating toys for girls that aren't just about hair and accessories and makeup, but, you know, that encourage girls to build and grow and do math and science and all of these things. so barbie is a little bit of

a -- an ak ro nichl and i think mattel wants her to feel more real and of the tires in if they were real she would be 5'9" and 110 pounds. >> great. >> i'm glad they made the change. >> yes. >> i have to say -- >> what kind of dolls do they have as alternatives? >> there is a company called goldy blocks that i interviewed the ceo and she was a math dee no, ma'am and very much into engineering and decided to come up with a company about selling dolls with dolls having an enthusiasm for math, science, engineering, stem-oriented dolls. >> we're learning that everything that we've been told since the early 1960s on nutrition is wrong. in a major way when it comes to obesit obesity, you have the story of the new rules of the heart and basically everything we've ever been told is wrong. >> yes. read it carefully. >> are we now going to find out

that we should be eating salt, sugar and fat? >> the thing is in the early 1960s we were told stay away from fat so everybody loaded up on carbs, we're more obese than ever before, that's more damaging to the heart than ever before and fat is not as bad as we thought it was. >> fat is not as bad as we thought it was. you know, there are different -- >> the daily aspirin. >> the daily aspirin thing is not what it might have been cracked up to be. >> take baby aspirin every day to prevent a heart attack is the new thinking. the new science is if you haven't already had a heart attack the pill is not a surprised. >> everybody made the switch to skim milk, i still have kids in my -- we're back to whole milk. >> eggs as well. >> what's that? >> eggs as well. there was a ban on eggs for so many years. >> going back to whole milk. >> going back to whole milk, it's not house, we drink it and love it. >> people with high cholesterol should be taking a statin. some people need a different drug all together or none at

all. >> one word for anybody in the early -- >> one of the big things has remained steady. don't smoke. do not smoke. >> that will never come back. >> thank you. >> lipitor. >> no. >> coming up next, as apple earnings go flat facebook defies expectations once again. business at the bell is next. woah! look! that's my boy. you're proud to give each other your best every day. and at banquet, we want to give you our best. that's why we're adding 20% more chicken to our chicken pot pies with golden, flaky crusts. that's my mom. now serving... a better banquet. ♪ beth, i hear you calling.♪.s ♪ but i can't come home right now... ♪

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eisen. it's a busy day for earnings. >> facebook is a stand out, guys, this morning it is surging. facebook is on fire right now. just listed earnings last night, 52% sales growth from the year before. you are not seeing that in corporate america right now. continuing to flex its mobile advertising muscle. just to highlight this point here, when facebook went public back in 2012 there were a lot of skeptics on wall street who said this is a company who is not making enough money off of mobile, that's where its users, everyone is going on social media. guess what? now facebook is making 80% of its sales off of mobile advertising. it has really transitioned and it is seeing growth and also squeezing more money out of all of us, the users, of facebook. by the way, 1.6 billion monthl active users. overall earnings are okay, not great. a big theme is the strength of the dollar, that's hurting a lot

of american companies that do business abroad and some general economic weakness, whether it's in china or here at home in the u.s. >> cnbc's sara eisen. thank you. new this morning the world health organization will hold an emergency committee meeting on the zika virus today. the agency's director general says the virus is spreading explosively in the americas. the committee will be examining whether the zika outbreak should be classified as an international health emergency. officials in new york city are set to address the public after at least one person contracted the virus. so far 24 countries from reported cases of the virus. in latin america the virus has been associated with a steep increase in cases of microcephali in which babies have underdeveloped brains. >> several weeks ago dr. dave campbell who is the husband of somebody that works with us said, do you know what you guys reason talking about in two or three weeks. >> zika.

>> you will be talking about the zika virus. there was a recommendation to limit travel to areas where the zika virus was and they caved so now they made a decision based on dollars instead of health. he said two, three weeks from now. >> this is going to bubble over. >> you will be talking about the zika virus. two minutes ago, dr. dave, that's what you get. exactly right, mike. exactly right. now we have to deal with this. >> and how do you catch it? is it airborne. >> mosquito bites you. up next what, if anything, did we learn today?

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♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ welcome back. time to talk about what we learned today. mika. >> bill karins is tweeting hateful things. >> hateful. >> hateful. a storm coming? >> he didn't say a storm he said a blizzard coming to iowa monday or tuesday. >> tuesday. >> no coat for him. get out of here. it's only 10 degrees outside. >> throw him outside. >> get him out. >> what did you learn today? >> i'm excited about the new barbie, it's time for a change, reality, right? you're laughing. why are you laughing? >> no frame of reference for barbie. what did you learn, mike? >> facebook's stunning profit it upsets me because newspapers are dying, they can't do anything profitwise online and facebook makes over a billion dollars in a quarter. >> joe, big face off tonight,

the republicans and then something at drake. what's going on? >> donald trump. willie geist has the odds of 34.1% that donald still makes it. >> he just called in, he's got it down to 28.6%. >> i don't know. maybe, maybe they can figure out a way out of this. these are two really smart guys that know how to big deals. i just wonder if roger and donald can make the deal. >> if it's way too early what time is it? >> time for "morning joe" but stick around because we will be talking about this and a lot of great stories throughout the day. but msnbc live starts right now. and right now on msnbc firing back at fox. donald trump goes toe to toe with a network and maintains he will boycott tonight's debate. >> i was not treated well by fox, they came out with this ridiculous pr stunt, it was drawn up by a child and it was a taunt and i said, you know, how much of this do you take?