reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive? good morning, everyone. thank you so much for getting up early with us, i'm tamron hall. this morning we are just one day away from the iowa caucuses. and as iowa voters ponder their final decisions in the race for president, they are waking up to some brand new poll numbers. des moines register's front page highlighting close races in both parties this morning. on the republican side donald trump leads senator ted cruz by five points. but, there's a four-point margin of error that we are looking at. so it seems that this race is still anyone's game.

and on the democratic side, it's even closer. hillary clinton leading senator bernie sanders by just three points. and republican front-runner donald trump will begin his day in council bluffs, iowa. nbc's kerry sanders is live for us there. kerry, we seem to learn so much about donald trump's campaign from his twitter feed. he's already saying that he and his wife melania plan to head to church and he has a couple of events after that. >> you know, he's barnstorming the state. he's doing what politicians do. he calls this now crunch time. and as you said, he will be going to church. and then he'll be coming here to council bluffs to the middle school here, where he will be meeting with, once again, he hopes a large crowd on a sunday. there may be people who choose to go to church rather than come here. we'll wait to see. really at this point it's now down to the final hours where those who are going to participate in the caucus have to make their decision. >> we're tired of being pushed

around. we want to regain our standing in the world. and you know, let's be realistic about where we're headed in the future. we're going to like greece? europe? is that where we want to be. do i plan on caucusing for him? i don't know yet. he's a little bombastic. a little over the top sometimes. but, it's not necessarily a bad thing. i don't know. it feels like kind of at a rock concert. i think it's kind of cool. he builds up a lot of excitement. he gets people, you know, excited about what could happen. so i think that's a good thing. we need that. >> the most critical vote in iowa is the evangelical vote. in 2012, 57% of those who participated in the caucuses self-identified as evangelical. it may be why donald trump was shown holding his family bible.

a bible that he says that his mother gave him. a visual to go to that audience that may or may not choose to support him come caucus night. >> kerry, donald trump actually posted a video on facebook a short time ago holding that bible. he's been carrying it around iowa. let's face it, it's not the bible, it's the ground game that he has to focus on to get people out, evangelical or otherwise. and we keep hearing over and over about his supporters being first-time caucusgoers. what are you seeing on the ground as far as his effort to educate those people? i saw one report that some of his team members who are training -- who are planning to help first-time caucusgoers are first-time caucusgoers themself if any of this makes any sense at this point. >> the ground game is one that looks like we're going to have to see if it really comes together. because a lot of this ground game has been on the internet. people connecting through facebook and other social media. and getting information on where

to go. but, not quite understanding maybe how the caucus process works. but there's one sort of caveat in all of this. back in the last caucus four years ago, 40% of the people who participated in caucuses, the first time that they had ever done it. while there may be a whole new group of people showing up to participate in the caucus, it's not unusual for there to be people who've never done it before. of course on the republican side it's a lot easier. they go to a room and write down their ballot after they discuss a little bit. the democratic side is far more complicated and difficult. >> all right, kerry. thank you very much. joining us now from des moines, iowa, is someone who is looking certainly to make his mark in tomorrow night's caucuses. republican presidential candidate, kentucky senator rand paul. welcome, senator. thank you so much for waking up with us this morning. >> thanks for having me >> let's talk about your ground game. i've read some interesting comments from you. i know that right now you are in fifth place, 23 points behind donald trump. but you have about 1,000 precinct captains there for you

trying to rally your ground game. why are you confident at this hour? >> if you come to our headquarters in des moines you'll see over 100 young men and women making phone calls. they've made a million phone calls in iowa. i've been out knocking on doors. 1,000 precinct chairs is pretty formidable. i don't know that any other campaign has announced that many precinct chairs. so we think we do have a great ground game. we also think that the youth vote is underrepresented in polling. often if you look at these polls there's nobody under 30, even in the poll, period. because all the young people are on cell phones. i haven't met a college kid who's ever had a presidential poll. so we think we're going to do very well with the youth vote because of my opposition to the government collecting our phone records. because of my support for privacy, and because of my support for letting people be left alone. >> it's an interesting point you make about the polls, considering your front-runner is poll obsessed. and it appears that this campaign this season more than any other has been a poll-driven

poll obsessed dialogue. so it sounds as if your confidence right now does not lie in the numbers that we are looking at that puts you at 5%. >> yeah, and another thing that the polls aren't picking up, is they ask in the most recent des moines poll, they said who did you vote for in 2012? and my dad's percentages aren't much ahead of mine, and yet he got 22%. so we think there's a lot of what we call the liberty vote that's not being counted yet in the polling, either. >> but even still, these polls are faulty or not when you look at the average all of them show donald trump in the lead. the front-runner, and he has been since the summer, i'm curious on your thoughts why donald trump is resonating. you may have heard the sound from the man this morning, our colleague interviewer who said it really is about strength. i heard someone yesterday, a voter in iowa, say he's a small business owner, like donald trump is a small business owner. i'm not sure how he processed that. but it's almost as if there's a

jedi mind trick going on that these people believe they can relate to donald trump. >> you know, i'm a small business owner. i was a smalltown physician. but i never went bankrupt so i do have some differences with donald trump. i do think, though, that when you look at the differences between trump and myself, trump says he's smart and he's rich. give him power and he'll fix everything. i say that power corrupts, and that i don't want a great deal of power in the presidency, republican or democrat. i believe in limiting the power. having checks and balances. and i'm very suspicious of too much power in a central government. and so, i'm kind of the opposite of donald trump in the sense that i'm not presumptuous enough to know that i have all the answers. i want to leave that power, much of that power to the states and to the people respectively. >> but you've also presented yourself as the opposite, as well to ted cruz, the person who is second or even tied, depending on the polls, with donald trump. you attacked him heavily during the debate on amnesty, and how he projects, i guess his

standing when you look at the other candidates. with that said, this is your one in two. two people as you said you could not be further away from, philosophy, policywise, but they are battling it out for the one and two spots. why? >> well, you know, we'll see. i think we don't know until people vote. so i think we need to give more credence to actually what happens in the election. you know, in kentucky, just a couple of months ago, every poll said that the democrat would win by five points, and the republican ended up winning by nine. they were all 14 points in the last week, in a two-person race. i have a feeling we could be off five or ten points with any of these candidates. even the polls themselves are plus or minus five margin of error. so i think really we're going to find that there could be some surprises, plus it will be much more exciting news if we don't know the election beforehand. >> well, that would be exciting news, certainly, considering again i bet we've been poll obsessed. quickly i've got to ask you, senator cruz said if donald trump wins iowa, he runs away with the whole thing.

do you believe that to be the case? >> no, i think the election will go on for awhile. because i think there are a lot of us who are alarmed by having donald trump as the nominee. i've been one who says we have to have a bigger, better, bolder party. that means a more diverse party and i think donald trump will make us the sort of the lily-white party, which is not going to win any elections, frankly. and i worry about him scaring people away based on sort of ethnic generalities which i don't think are good for our party, or good for the country. >> i know you've spoken a lot about ferguson, the criminal justice system, things that you hope resonate, if not in iowa, further down the road. senator paul, thank you so much for your time. i greatly appreciate it. >> thank you. >> absolutely. for the latest on the democratic race, we turn now to nbc's kristen welker. she's live for us, in iowa's capital of des moines. kristen, good morning to you. the last chance, of course, for the candidates to sway undecided voters, and we know that hillary clinton's team is focused on the pushback regarding new details about her immae-mails and what

in them. >> that's absolutely right the final hours here in iowa, tamron. look this race here on the democratic side is still anyone's to win. secretary clinton has a slim lead over bernie sanders, but she's not taking anything for granted. and sanders isn't letting up. the democratic candidates crisscrossing iowa late into the night saturday. with just hours to go. for hillary clinton, it was all hands on deck. >> i am so proud to support my mom. >> she is the single best change maker i have ever known. >> reporter: husband bill and daughter chelsea, helping deliver the final pitch. >> thank you, bill, thank you, chelsea. >> reporter: clinton is entering the home stretch with a boost. saturday's des moines register bloomberg poll shows her with a slim lead over rival bernie sanders. 45% to 42%. and "the new york times" endorsed her. calling her one of the most broadly, and deeply qualified, presidential candidates in

modern history. >> i hope that we'll be able to persuade you to join us to make progress for our country. >> earlier in the day clinton tried to turn the page after the state department determined 22 e-mails from the former sect's private server were top secret. clinton telling nbc news she didn't generate them. >> this is an inner agency dispute. and it's playing out in public, and i want it resolved. >> reporter: senator sanders is still riding a wave of insurgent excitement. buoyed by young voters who overwhelmingly support him. >> people said it was a fringe campaign. doesn't look like a fringe campaign tonight. >> and now the battle being waged in campaign war rooms. clinton and sanders have both built up armies of volunteers, ready to fight, determined to win. >> i haven't seen this excitement for so long. there's got to be something about this crazy old guy, right? >> we are here to help democrats

and to hopefully get hillary clinton elected president. >> now tamron, if those young voters turn out in force, it could hand a victory to bernie sanders. that's what happened back in 2008, when then-senator barack obama, young voters by a margin of about four to one. both sanders and clinton have another relentless campaign scheduled today that will last late into the night. tamron. >> we'll be following right along with you. thank you so much. stay with msnbc as we count down to the iowa caucuses. don't miss our special prime-time coverage tonight starting at 8:00 eastern. and up next, how a near-70,000 people could decide the fate of the republican candidates. we'll dig into those numbers right after a quick break. "beth" by kiss ♪ beth, i hear you calling.♪. ♪ but i can't come home right now... ♪ ♪ me and the boys are playing.♪.

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they just came out with the des moines register bloomberg poll, and the numbers were so good for me, which i'm happy about. it all doesn't matter if you don't caucus on monday. it all doesn't matter. just we're all -- the polls don't matter. nothing matters. >> where we are right now, this race is a dead heat. it is neck and neck. now it is effectively a two-man race. >> i'm just trying to get as many people to caucus for me as possible. i don't know what that leads to other than success. i feel good about it. i really do. >> the top three republicans in iowa, they're all trying to fire up their supporters before monday night. joining me now to talk more about it, "washington post" national political correspondent, thanks to much for joining. and our panel here with us >> merry christmas eve -- i mean merry caucus eve. >> festivus for the rest of us. our panel is here, former campaign manager for bobby

jindal, bernard whitman former pollster to president bill clinton and lauren victoria burke managing editor for politics 365. thank you all for joining us. karen, let's start off with you first by the numbers in the ground game. you heard donald trump say the very same thing that we're hearing on both sides with democrats as well. it means nothing if we cannot get these supporters out. it's interesting with donald trump. his supporters have all lined up behind him. they are convincing their guy, except for the fact that they're about 46% of the voters in iowa who have not decided who they want to support. by the numbers how does this play out as you see it? >> well, i think the poll -- the des moines register poll that we were all waiting for last night is a pretty good indicator of where things stand at this moment. but, what it does suggest is that, particularly i think on the democratic side, it's, you know, it's anyone's ball game right now between bernie sanders and hillary clinton. this is a very, very close race. and, you know, the trump's

model, he's right. who would have ever thought we'd have heard donald trump saying the polls don't matter. but, he's right in that his whole path to victory is premised on all kinds of people showing up to these caucuses who never have done it before. >> when we look at it, there's a high turnout that would help sanders and trump, i keep hearing people say these are first time caucusgoers. they were caucusgoers who supported a man named barack obama and stunned the world. so are we overplaying that line, because this election has upended everything that's been conventional wisdom? so you go to the memorization things like first time caucusgoers? >> i would say this. it's a good line to go to because if you get -- four years ago 121,000 people caucused and the republican side and if it goes over 150,000 this time around i think it's trump's win. under 150,000 i think cruz takes it. so, there's got to be a lot of new voters. what the voter registration rolls in iowa, there haven't

been really an alignment like there was with barack obama where there's this influx of new registered voters. >> when you look at, lauren, 45% could still be persuaded, another number i'm always fascinated by, when you think about, when you hear from iowa voters who say they cannot take another ad. if they hear or see another ad their televisions will explode and the family dog will run out. >> right. >> so who are these undecideds at this point? >> i think just like everybody else in the country, thinking hey, can we vote for this person, donald trump? they're thinking the same thing that everybody else has been thinking the entire year. can this person win? is this the person? and there's just something in me that feels like we'll see someone else winning tomorrow. cruz, rubio, obviously there's a big rumor of a rubio surge. i'm not sure that i completely believe that. but, there is something about that big undecided that would indicate that they haven't decided on trump. >> yeah. >> but i know you're saying that like the rest of the voters out there, they're saying if you're a republican, can you vote for donald trump? but bernard, iowans have been up

close to the fire. i mean, they see the trump force one roll into town and they've seen him more intimately and also been inundated with ads who have pointed out that some evangelicals believe he's a phony when it comes to his faith. that he has not provided any specifics other than to make america great again. >> yet his support among white evangelicals is very, very high. i think you're going to see a very tight race on both sides. ultimately i think that trump will narrowly edge cruz. i think that hillary clinton will narrowly edge bernie sanders. if you look at the internals on the race between clinton and sanders that's where you have a lot of advantages for hillary. y? because the first time caucusgoers are much less likely to vote. the best predictor of whether you're going to show up is if you've shown up before. if you're over 65 you're much more likely to vote. she has a huge advantage in this group. hillary clinton supporters, about four in five of them are saying she is my candidate, i'm not going to change my mind.

bernie sanders, only two in three. we have to remember in the iowa caucuses you have to go there, you have to discuss, you have to debate. she's got an edge in those caucus rooms because i think her supporters are more committed to her and believe in her electability over bernie sanders. >> karen, that's a great point that was made, when you see the split screen of their final rallies yesterday, you've got bernie sanders, with, you know, the young crowd, and it's very vibrant, and then there was a split screen of an event with hillary clinton yesterday and people described them as less enthusiastic, and old, but those are the people precisely that will show up for her. i saw two different interviews with young college students. one said he had class. the other said i'm going to try to make it. that has to sink bernie sanders' heart when you hear a supporter say i love him, i'm enthusiastic, oh, i'll try to make it. >> yeah. and you know, again, this is the question, this is the big question. i remember, though, when the des moines register poll came out in 2008, i was on the hillary

clinton bus, and you know, mark penn put out a memo that day saying look, you know, this are these are people who aren't going to show up. so, again, we'll see when we see. but the, you know, kind of wonderful thing about iowa is it seems like every four years they just delight in proving the pundit okay raes wrong. >> that's true. but don't they want to pick a president? i mean they have had mike huckabee, santorum, and i'm sure that they're very proud of those votes at the time, but does iowa want to pick a president? >> you know, there is just not a lot of evidence that that is the thing that drives iowa voters. and i don't know -- >> republican -- >> especially on the republican side. and you know, again, i just don't see all that much evidence in the polling or in the crowds that that has changed. >> all right, karen, thank you. thank you to our panel. all of you for the first time. -- sleep in on sunday. this is an exciting sunday.

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came around, and opposed the keystone pipeline. >> that was hillary clinton, of course bernie sanders making their closing arguments to voters yesterday in iowa. the candidates have seven events across the state later today. and joining me now from des moines, sanders' campaign manager jeff weaver. good to see you. thanks for joining me this morning. >> hi, tamron. >> let's talk about the new poll out. it shows this race belongs to anyone. will senator sanders pull out a victory monday night? >> well, look, we're working very, very hard here. the truth is, is that both candidates have enough voters supporting them to win here. it's going to all be a question of turnout, who comes out, if we get our people out we can win here. we will win. >> our turnout depends heavily on college voters. i said before the break i saw two interviews with very enthusiastic college supporters. young people who are all about feeling the bern, as one said. but one said he had class. the other person said i would try to make it there. how do you get those young

people who are showing up for the rallies to get there tomorrow night? >> right, well, we're reaching out to them quite aggressively on social media, through their social networks, and i think we're going to have a lot of success getting them out. this was a similar criticism, i think just pointed out, about the obama campaign in 2008 and obviously, they all came out for senator obama. so, we're hopeful, we see a lot of energy out there. i've got to tell you, you know, we are very, very popular with college students. young people, but we've been to small towns all around iowa and there's a lot of enthusiasm among working-class people, and middle-income people who want to deal with this rigged economy. >> let's talk about the state department's latest revelation that 22 e-mails from hillary clinton's home server were deemed top secret. her campaign makes the point that it was after the fact. everyone, when this news broke, it seems, on cable news anyway, went back to that moment when senator sanders on the debate said -- on the debate stage said he did not care about the e-mail

scandal, essentially. what's the reaction now to this news? does this hurt hillary clinton? >> i think what he said at the time was i'm sick of hearing about your damn e-mails. >> right. >> is what he said. you know, i'll repeat now what he told chris cuomo after the debate, which was, there is an investigation going on, there's a legal process going on. we should let that process go forward. let's not politicize it, and it will come out how it comes out. but in the mean time, let us talk about the real issues facing the american people. our rigged economy. held up by a corrupt system of campaign finance. the need for health care reform. the need to protect the environment. these are the issues that people want to hear about. how are you going to send your kids to college? that's what the senator is focusing on here in iowa. >> jeff is it politicizing for the campaign for senator sanders to say or to express concern of what this could mean if hillary clinton gets the nomination that this is not just a cloud that hovers over her head it's an

investigation that could ultimately impact her if she gets the nomination just as you've made the point and the campaign has made the point about her taking money for speeches in the hundreds of thousands, is that politicizing or is that pointing out something that senator sanders believes is a distinction sne? >> well, in this case there is a legal process going on right now, by the obama administration, to look into this. and we should just let that process go forward. that's what we should do. >> all right. jeff weaver, thank you so much for joining us. >> happy to be here. >> and, donald trump may be leading in most iowa polls, but coalition surging iowans to choose anyone but trump. we'll talk with one of the leaders of that effort right after this. this is joanne.

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cause this week. they say it's anyone but trump. in an open letter to iowa voters released tuesday the heads of iowa and national group said we urge iowa caucusgoers and voters to support anyone but trump on the issue of defending unborn children and protecting women from the violence of abortion. mr. trump cannot be trusted and joinding me now one of the authors of that letter penny nantz, the president of the concerned women for america. penny, thanks so much for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> donald trump has said over and over, and he actually wrote, let me be clear, i am pro-life. i did not always hold this position, but i have a significant personal experience that brought the precious gift of life into perspective for me. do you believe donald trump's statement? >> well, the devil is in the details, isn't it? what does pro-life mean to him? as you mentioned i was joined by ten pro-life women leaders from iowa, national leaders from around the country, who are very concerned about his position on

life, and protecting the least of these. and so we have urged iowa voters to consider very seriously this choice. the other issue that you didn't bring up that we mentioned in the letter is our concern of his treatment of women. he is the only person in this race who has certainly profited from the exploitation of women. his -- his casino in atlantic city hosted a strip club and so we thought that was very important for iowa voters to know, on top of all the things he said, and the other issues around him, that character is important. character counts. and so, we believe, as you know, 60% of the voters, the evangelical christians, this would be important information for them. >> and saz you said, ten others signed that letter with you, but when you look at some of the numbers right now the des moines register, iowa evangelical caucusgoers, 33% right now support senator cruz. 19% support trump. but he's had a sizable number of

evangelical leaders, including jerry falwell jr., to come out and support him. number of other women conservatives, sarah palin endorsing him. why are you right about donald trump, and they are wrong? >> you know, i respect jerry falwell jr., and sarah palin. these are people that i care about. and, you know, i respect their opinions. >> but why are they wrong? >> we had to tell the truth about what we see as the issues here. donald trump, although he says he's pro-life, has only pointed out one person -- by the way, you know this tamron, that the key on this issue is going to be supreme court justices. up to four supreme court justices could be appointed in this next administration. it could be as high as that many. so row v. wade could be changed greatly by who we choose as president. the only person who donald trump

has mentioned as the kind of justice he would choose is his sister mary ann trump who struck down the partial birth abortion ban act in new jersey. she's very much to the left of iowa voters on the issue of life. and there's other -- other details i could point out. but i would was saying the key point here, i'm saying for iowa voters, is character. they are -- there are several great choices in that race for them to choose from. many and women of character, who have a record, a proven record on the issue of life and marriage and other social issues. we think of the other eight, nine women who join me that there are better choices than donald trump in this election, in this particular race. >> but would your message be more effective if you endorsed someone rather than saying anyone but trump? you see the polling there. so that he's neck and neck with ted cruz, for example, why not then lend your voices to supporting ted cruz and perhaps

helping him pull out a victory in iowa? >> because everyone on that letter probably had a different candidate that they supported. and maybe that's the case that's going on in iowa right now. i would suggest that that probably is the case. the evangelical vote, the pro-life vote is split. but we all came together in agreement. and actually i think that is really important, that we all came around the idea that donald trump's credentials on the issue of life are not clear. >> but it sounds like your organization reflects what's happening in iowa. the ten of you could not dock to a consensus of supporting one person you would split all your votes, and that's why donald trump may win on monday night. >> that might be the case. but let me just say something, though, iowa is a great group of people. we have a great number of members in that state. but, it's only the first state. and they've only chosen the same -- the republican nominee

since 1980 twice. so we'll see what happens. >> thank you so much. we appreciate it. up next the voting bloc bernie sanders is now appealing to that could be the word we like to use so much for the description game changer in the race for the democratic nomination. we'll get into some numbers you'll be thinking about for the next 24 hours. ♪ lost shipments, lost invoices, lost prospects, lost respect. well-crafted solutions for today's problems in commerce. pitney bowes, the craftsmen of commerce.

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this week for senator bernie sanders. i'm joined by former ohio state senator nina turner who recently announced her endorsement for senator sanders. thanks so much for joining me. >> thanks, tamron. >> i have to tell you, i tweeted out that rand paul would be joining us, and i tweeted out that you would be joining and we got more retweets and comments both positive and i'll be honest with you negative about your decision so explain to the people out there who may have been surprised given that you were very, very loyal to barack obama, that you have decided to support bernie sanders? >> well, i think senator sanders is the best candidate to continue the legacy of president w barack obama. in this nation it is really about choice. the haters should not be hating. i am supporting senator bernie sanders because i believe that he has heart-soul agreement. when it comes to the afric african-american community in particular what senator sanders has advanced in raising the minimum wage to $15 would instantly give folks in the

african-american community 50% of them a raise. when he talks about universal health care as a right tamron i can tell you as having my mother day at the age of 42 year olds with an aneurysm burst in her brain being the oldest of seven children and a first generation college graduate when i juxtaposition senator sanders vision for this country with my life story, there was no doubt who i should be supporting. and that is senator bernie sanders. >> obviously clinton supporters hillary clinton supporters will say that she was on the front line of health care as a first lady. she was the person who got wounded before barack obama was wounded in that battle and ultimately was victorious and she paved the way on health care alone. >> well, all good democrats should be fighting for universal health care. it is unfortunate that the secretary has a different vision in 2016 than she had then when she was fighting for universal health care. as you may remember, she chastised senator barack obama for coming against here in 2008 saying that democrats should not fight each other over this fundamental value that we have.

so again senator sanders you know in the christian tradition it says that you will know a tree but the fruit that it bears and senator sanders has been in the vineyard laboring for justice all of his life, and so i'm supporting him. >> let's talk about the fact you just saw cornel west, your support you also rapper activist killer mike and a number of other people who have come out from the african-american community, not a monolithic community i have to remind people of that. >> thank you. >> who have come out and support bernie sanders but you and i know that at the black church at the beauty salons the barber shops all these typical places that people think we hang out that there is a conversation that there's a belief that blacks should fall in line behind the clintons, or fall in line as voters of the democratic party. i saw you already are ready to respond to that. >> tamron, i'm having a moment here. nobody owns the black vote. the black vote should be earned. and it is curious to me that our folks are the only voting bloc where people assume which

direction we are going to go in. my message to the black community this morning, and to all communities, is that no one should allow themselves to be taken for granted. and unfortunately, lots of times the democratic party itself as a whole has taken the african-american community for granted. so nobody owns our vote. they have to earn our vote. and we don't owe anything to elected officials. it is the other way around. and so, while senator sanders certainly has not been a national figure, he is running for the presidency of these united states of america, but he is running with heart-soul agreement so i would ask my sisters and brothers of the african-american community to do a deep dive and make a choice based on heart-soul agreement and not where folks think we should be or trying to force us to be. >> but when you look at south carolina right now, polling shows hillary clinton with 37-point margin in that state alone. we know the african-american votes there are very important and that may be as they describe it her firewall. you talk about bernie sanders and his relationship and support of the black community, some

people say, the stage not stormed by black lives matters supporters in that incredibly awkward moment that senator sanders may not have really stepped down and had this dialogue with young, black voters. you may, his comments lately on represent rations and some other issues that in a sense i guess i'm asking you was bernie sanders hand really forced into the conversation with black voters because of the storming of the stage by black lives matters or do you see this as an authentic recognition of the power of the black vote? >> it is authentic, tamron. let's be clear here. senator sanders is a senator from vermont. 95% of their population, he cannot control the demographics so he's served honorably in that state. 95% of that population is white. i was at net roots nation and at least senator bernie sanders and governor o'malley had the heart to come to net roots nation. i saw them take over the room so it is an alarming experience but they were absolutely in the fight. senator sanders understands that he has to earn the

african-american vote and that is exactly what he's doing and his position in reparation is not that much different from president obama's. so, to lay reparations at his feet is unfair. we should be asking every candidate how they feel about reparations, but senator sanders has the strongest racial justice program and platform of any candidate running for president, democrat or republican, so i want to go back to the urban poet tupac when he says we got money for wars but we can't feed the poor. when people say we should not be dreaming big we cannot go from yes we can to no, we can't. senator bernie sanders is the symbol for all that is right in this country and he will continue to stand up and fight against the status quo and that is why african-americans should vote for him because we have been victim of the status quo for generations. >> nina turner thank you so much for your time. i'll be talking with you hopefully after monday. >> i'm looking forward to it. >> thank you so much. and we should remind you of course, she supports bernie sanders, i don't know why i had to tell you that again.

let's look at des moines, iowa, on the morning before the iowa caucuses. next we're going to be joined by the chair of the iowa democratic party with her thoughts on tomorrow night's contest. stick around. we'll be right back. i'm billy, and i quit smoking with chantix. i had a lot of doubts going in. i was a smoker. hands down, it was... that's who i was. after one week of chantix, i knew i could quit. along with support, chantix (varenicline) is proven to help people quit smoking. chantix reduced my urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. some had seizures while taking chantix. if you have any of these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of mental health problems, which could get worse or of seizures. don't take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you have these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away as some can be life-threatening. tell your doctor if you have heart or blood vessel problems, or develop new or worse symptoms. get medical help right away if you have symptoms of a heart attack or stroke.

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on the eve of the iowa caucuses, the new and final des moines register poll has hillary clinton three points ahead of bernie sanders. as we have discussed this hour, that is within the margin of error. the democratic race going down to the wire. we're joined by the chair of the iowa democratic party. thank you so much for joining us. we're tight on time, so i want to get straight to it. what do you believe will be the headline tuesday morning, late monday night? >> i hope it's that we had a great caucus, great turnout, and a great winner. >> well, that's great. but we know that we will have a winner and a loser here. you're within the margin of error. what voting block do you believe

will make the decision here? >> well, i think a lot of people have talked about turnout as being very important. and certainly, to the democratic party, turnout is important to us because caucuses are about party building. we want to have turnout as much as we can. we had three great campaigns. very organized, all over the state. they will really turn out their people. the campaign that can turn out their people the best may be the winner. >> i still have our panel with us, philip, bernard, and lauren. let's go down the line. what do ubelieve will be the headline? >> record turnout for this particular -- >> record turnout. more than 2008? >> yeah, i think more than -- actually, i shouldn't say that. obama, obama was a phenomenon, so no. i think bernie will pull it off and hillary will barely -- >> i think it's trump and hillary barely win. rubio comes in a disant third. >> i say who exceeds expectations. trump needs to trouble up cruz.

cruz needs to beat rubio, and if that happens, it's on. >> before we leave here, we know there may be more debates added in. do you believe that the lack of debates on the democratic side or the fewer made a difference in here in why the race is so tight right now? >> i think they get their message out well anyhow. i'm for more debate, but also talking one-on-one. we had several forums here. the messages are getting their message out. i welcome more of that, but i think they're doing a very good job. >> the significance that iowa plays here, we hear so much about obviously, the population compared to cities that certainly like new york who believe they matter more than anything else. and that there may be an argument in some ways for that, but the significance of iowa and the role that state plays. how do you explain that to people who still question it? >> we take this process very seriously. iowans really, it's a good state

geographically. you can get all around it. in this day of citizens united, you can't buy iowa. if you don't have name i.d., you don't have money, you can still come to iowa, talk to iowans all over the state, and actually become president. we like that that's the way this works. we're very proud of that and we take it very seriously. >> i have one more minute for our panel here, so you can't buy iowa. >> no, you can't. i think -- what do you think about trump? can he win this without a ground game? >> i think trump will actually win. when i look at the race, in 2008, obama beat hillary clinton and ultimately carried the democrats to the white house on hope and change. the republicans are operating this year on fear and change. so far, it's working very, very well for them, particularly for donald trump and ted cruz. the challenge is american is a forward looking country. we believe in the future. at the end of the day in the general election, that is going to work against them. there's a huge enthusiasm gap on the republican side we don't see

on the democratic side. >> we're out of time. thank you so much for joining me. if i come in on a sunday again, i will bring pastries. i'm fasting right now. i couldn't take it. doctor, thank you so much for joining us. and thank you to all of our guests today for this hour. thanks for waking up with me on this sunday. i'll see you tomorrow, 11:00 eastern time. stay with msnbc as we count down the iowa caucuses. don't miss the primetime coverage with brian williams, rachel maddow, and chris matthews tonight at 8 clo:00 eastern. melissa harris-perry is up next. she'll be joined by ari melber who is live by des moines, melissa is, with a look at the last-minute effort to get out the vote. have a good one.

this morning, our question, who has the winning strategy in iowa? plus, presidential politics and the supreme court. and what it really takes to get people out to caucus. but first, a new poll on who is

ahead in iowa this morning from the most reliable pollster in the state. good morning to you. i'm ari melber in for melissa harris-perry. she is out in iowa as we count down to the last 36 hours to the caucus. with them, the very first votes that will be cast in the 2016 presidential race. hi, melissa. >> what's going on? >> getting ready to do this. a very exciting day here in the place for politics. we're going to get to melissa who everyone can see live in iowa in a second. that's what we call proof of life. first, that new poll out last night from the "des moines register" and bloomberg news. let's show it to you. on the republican side, trump maintaining a lead of five points over ted cruz. marco rubio, you see there, coming up in third. for democrats, this looks close to a two-person tie. clinton at 45%.