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the hawkeye state, striking a familiar theme as the battle for iowa is joined by all parties. >> it all doesn't matter if you don't caucus on monday. it all doesn't matter. just we're all -- the polls don't matter. >> we are going to do something that's going to be so terrific. >> the time for all that media noise has past. this is your time. this is the men and women of iowa, the time to make a decision. >> if you're here today and you want to help us in this campaign, we need in the last 48 hours, we always need more volunteers. if you're willing to give us an hour of your time, we'd be grateful. please sign up. >> for those of you who are still thinking and weighing your options, i hope to be able to persuade you to come out and also caucus for me because the stakes in this election are so high. >> on monday night, i hope that you will come out. i hope that you will give thought to supporting my candidacy. the eyes of this country are

going to be on iowa. >> it could be more than a footnote in iowa. a link emerging between presidential contenders donald trump and bernie sanders. we'll tell what you it is. as tcandidates make their final pitches to iowa caucusgoers, we're getting a poll conducted by "the des moines register" and bloomberg politics shows hillary clinton maintaining her iowa lead by three points. meanwhile, donald trump has reclaimed his lead there. trump and his closest competitor, ted cruz, are once again making the case why the other shouldn't win the republican nomination. >> as others attack me, i don't respond in kind. i don't engage. when donald trump calls me a canadian anchor baby, i don't respond with an insult. i'll sing donald's praises. i like donald. i think he's bold and brash. >> all of these senators, not

one endorsement of cruz because he's a nasty guy. nobody likes him. ted cruz is such a liar. i'm so against obamacare. i've said for two years i'm going to repeal and replace obamacare. i don't know where he gets that. he's a liar. >> new reaction from senator rand paul on why donald trump would be the worst choice for republicans. >> there are a lot of us who are alarmed by having donald trump as a nominee. i've been one who says we have to have a bigger, better, bolder party. that means a more diverse party. and i think donald trump will make us the -- sort of the lily white party, which is not going to win any elections, frankly. and i worry about him scaring people away based on sort of ethnic general tis, which i don't think are good for our party or the country. >> senator paul is among 14 candidates in iowa today holding a combined total of 40 events. yes, we need two graphics pages to show you how many can days are in the hawkeye state right

now. msnbc out on the campaign trail with reports all over iowa for you. kerry sanders is in council bluffs with trump's team, halle jackson with ted cruz, chris jansing following marco rubio's campaign. we begin with kristin welker who is following hillary clinton. we're joined from des moines. a good day to you. a very, very tight race there in the waning hours of the state's caucuses. what is the clinton camp planning today? >> reporter: well, they have a very busy day of campaigning. secretary clinton will have three events culminating in a final event here in des moines. it's going to be a family affair. former president bill clinton will be there as well as daughter chelsea. just got off the phone with a clinton campaign official who says they are feeling a measured confidence in the final day of campaigning. they do have that slim lead in "the des moines register"/bloomberg poll. secretary clinton got good news yesterday. she was endorsed by "the new york times" as well as 28 african-american ministers and

faith leaders. she met with them earlier in the week. but senator sanders has been surging, as you know, alex, so the clinton campaign not taking anything for granted. sanders not slowing down either. now, clinton has been on defense in the past few days because on friday, of course, we learned the state department was withholding 22 of her e-mails from her private server when she was secretary of state, marking them top secret. secretary clinton pushing back, calling on the state department to release those e-mails and insisting she's never sent any information that was marked as classified at the time. here's how she responded to a question on abc earlier this morning when asked about this. >> well, i'm going to leave that to others who are quite experienced in the ways of washington to comment on. i just have to point out that the timing and some of the leaks that have led up to it are concerning. >> reporter: secretary clinton was asked if there were any political implications to all of

this, alex. interesting she tried to underscore that point in her answer. this is part of her attempt to pivot away from what has become a very thorny issue for her. the kam page acknowledging this is the last headline they want to see in the final day of campaigning. so, today another very busy day of campaigning for secretary clinton, as well as senator sanders. it all comes down to turnout, turnout. we always say that, alex. the same is true again this time around. bernie sanders could win iowa if you see younger voters turn out in force, in the same way they did in 2008 for then-senator barack obama, who won that group by a margin of about 4 to 1. those are the stakes. all eyes on the ground game right now. >> at least all of the candidates can be united on that front. turnout, turnout, turnout. thank you, kristin welker in des moines. donald trump has reclaimed the lead in "the des moines register"/bloombergs politics poll. donald trump at 28%, ted cruz at

23%. marco rubio and ben carson are the only others in double digits. let's go to kerry sanders from council bluffs, iowa. what do iowans overall say about candidate trump? >> reporter: well, the supporters for donald trump say that they like him because he is not a politician. he's not been in office before. they like the idea of him being an outsider and somebody who is just plain different. the real question here, as we head very close into the caucuses are those people who are so vocal and so in favor of donald trump. are they fans or are they voters? let's take a look at the actual poll here. you can see that donald trump is now leading by five percentage points. it's a dramatic turnaround when you consider in democrat he was down by 15%. so, 15 points up and now 5% up, it's really quite a turn-around. it talks about some momentum that donald trump believes that he has going into the iowa caucuses. he has had rallies, barnstorming

the state, again here today. he had a rally yesterday. this is what they said at that rally saturday. >> do i plan on caucusing for him? i don't know yet. he's a little bombastic, a little over the top sometimes, but is that necessarily a bad thing? i don't know. >> he's totally my candidate. he's wanting to build our borders. i'm very strong about that. i just don't like cruz and some of his mannerisms. i don't appreciate. >> in general, i'm open, but i like the concept of some of the things he has to say, but i want to know, how are you going to get that accomplished without getting us all in trouble? yeah, so i'm hoping seeing him speak personally will give us a different slant on what we hear in the press. >> reporter: and so really, iowa is not the greatest cross-section of the united states. not only because it is mostly white, but because the evangelical vote is so significant in this state.

in the last presidential election, 57% of folks who actually came out of the caucus self-identified as evangelicals. it may explain why donald trump, who will be here today with jerry falwell jr. for a second presentation, earlier today went to church. this is the second sunday now. last sunday and again today, that donald trump has gone to church, and holding in recent days his family bible. clearly, a symbolism that he's trying to send to those voters who self-identify as evangelicals. >> that is a clear message he's trying to send. thank you very much, kerry sanders. let's check in with halle jackson with the cruz campaign in des moines. a good day to you. it seems like senator cruz has been focusing on marco rubio and not donald trump. has he carried these attacks on the campaign trail as well? >> reporter: yeah, it's interesting, because you talk about the attacks on marco rubio. that's what we've seen more from cruz's tv ads. on the campaign trail he seems to have backed off a little from

marco rubio, not bringing his name up or donald trump's name up in stump speeches. instead you're seeing him go through the ads, hitting rubio on several different topics. it's not just donald trump who went to church. ted cruz was at church in the des moines suburban area. this idea he's trying to appeal to evangelicals is key to his turnout tomorrow night and potentially his path to victory in the caucuses here. but marco rubio as well has been talking much more openly and much more often about his faith as we've been following him on the campaign trail, too. >> all the republican candidates are shooting at me. that reflects a change in this race. six weeks ago donald thought i was terrific, i was his friend, he was singing my praises. then his poll numbers started dropping, our numbers started surging and sudden he started blasting me. not on policy, not on substance, but on personal insults and attacks. chuck, my approach consistently both before and after he started doing that is not to respond.

>> reporter: so, that's senator cruz talking with check this morning on "meet the press." interestingly he talked about those poll numbers showing him surging and donald trump slipping. we've seen a reversal of that a little bit in the last few days with "the des moines register" poll coming out. the cruz campaign feels they're at a very strong position. they believe their position to win here because of their organization on the ground, we talk about the so-called ground game all the time. thousands of volunteers, senator cruz telling us some nows. 20,000 phone calls, 1,000 door knocks every single day. they're convinced because of that organization, they'll be able to pull it off tomorrow night potentially. alex? >> halle jackson, thank you so much there. we appreciate that from des moines. let's get perspective on the countdown to iowa. i'm joined in studio by alesion jordan, former policy adviser to senator paul's presidential campaign. beth is a senior editor of msnbc.com. patrick murray, director of monmouth university polling institute.

welcome to you, all. alease i want to get your reaction to rand paul and his statement today that if trump is elected, it will lose any possibility of diversity for the republican party. >> i think that's the most troubling thing about the prospect of a trump presidency. i absolutely agree. i think this year, you know, rand paul made a very concerted effort to reach out beyond the traditional republican voter. that's something i was proud to be a part of and i'm still proud of him for pushing that. i think the rhetoric donald trump has had this entire campaign has been so negative and hostile and it's just not helpful to the republican party. >> okay. and then all these new numbers today, patrick, i'm going to go to you since you're the respect to that, it's not the monmouth poll but it is "the des moines register" and that is generally perceived to be a solid -- the top of the heap there in iowa. you've got donald trump up by five and hillary clinton up by three. again, ted cruz, number two, bernie sanders, number two, respectively. >> i'm comfortable with those

numbers because they look pretty much like the numbers i put out a couple days ago with the same exact trends. we're seeing a number of good polls that have come out that are showing exact lit same thing. ted cruz's support has been stable over the past month at about 24%, 23%. it's donald trump's numbers that are going up. the reason why donald trump's numbers are going up, both in the stelter poll and my poll have been because of the number of new voters, people who say i'm coming out for the first time, has actually increased in the past month. that's where we're seeing the surge. these are, for the most part, registered republican voters who vote in general elections but don't vote in primaries because they're not happy with the choices their party presents them r suddenly going to come out this time. at least that's what they're telling us. >> so, to think back to '08 because i know you covered hillary clinton's campaign. when the numbers came out, can you make comparisons here? >> oh, yeah. "the des moines register" poll for the 2008 elections came out three days before the caucuses and it showed her down by seven

to barack obama. it was new year's eve and just -- you could just feel the energy deflate out of the campaign because the poll is so good and so predictive. they must have been very happy with this one. admittedly, it's close, 45-42. three points is not a lot. senator sanders has a great organization there and could make it up. the interesting thing is the poll almost xheetly predicted 2008 what the outcome was. the only difference is she, hillary clinton, came in third behind barack obama and jon edwards. remember him? so, that's probably not going to happen this time. i don't think governor o'malley is playing at that level in iowa. but if she beats sanders by three points, she'll be very happy. >> we're going to have you guys stick around. we'll talk about turnout, the importance of that and something every candidate can agree upon. we'll see you in a bit. thank you for that. coming up, a silver lining in the polls for one candidate. we'll go inside the campaign and that number. plus, region marco rubio says third place not so bad. why would he say that? but first --

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giving you a live look at the capitol dome in des moines today. now we go to the marco rubio campaign. the florida senator appeared on "meet the press" this morning, arguing why placing third in the polls is not such a bad thing. >> we feel really good about the progress we're making here. we have taken on more negative attacks than every other candidate behind. jeb bush's super pac has spent

$30 million, a third of its money, attacking me. we keep going. we feel positive about it. we feel positive what it's going to mean in iowa and new hampshire. >> chris jansing joining us from des moines. what is marco rubio doing to capitalize on his standing before the caucuses? >> reporter: he's getting out there, alex. marco rubio has spent more time in iowa over the last three months than any of his major competitors. he's spent more money here over this weekend in every single television market here. he's been running a 30-minute ad. in addition to, that he has four iowa field offices. that's a lot. we've seen a difference in his demeanor. he senses something going on out there. we've seen him be looser, cracking jokes. when i was out with him yesterday, he seemed to be much more relaxed and enjoying himself. all of those things combined, you see that they feel like they have some momentum. a lot of what happens here isn't

just about who wins. this has always been the case in iowa. it's about where you finish, how close you finish. and going into in, it's about perception. about who has that momentum behind them. he is trying to project the aura of being a winner. they also like in the rubio campaign some things they're seeing in this poll. it's not just that they're third. here's where they're first. most enthusiastic, 58%. he leads the pack. that means his voters may be most likely to get out to those caucuses. his favorability is at 70%. only one republican candidate has a higher favorability. that's ben carson, he's at 72%. even among his supporters there are questions about his electability. finally, he's the second choice of 20% of people. that's higher than anybody else. and in a place where 45% say they might change their mind between now and monday, they like that number. >> i bet they do. thank you for that. we'll see you again.

will this final poll before the final caucuses is a mixed bag for gop candidate ben carson. let's bring in larry ross, communications director. welcome to you. we'll get to the favorability number in a minute. first, overall, this "des moines register"/bloomberg politics poll shows your candidate slipping to fourth place. still in double digits but with just 10% of the caucusgoers' support. it's his lowest showing since may. what do you contribute the slide? >> there's been some momentum, dr. carson has lost to some other candidates. he's crisscrossed the hawkeye state and many say, i'm coming back. you've changed my mind. as he has the opportunity to take his message directly to voters in town halls and rallies like we had last night, more than 500 people overflowing in a rally in des moines, he's energized by the momentum, the

response. he's said many times, i think people will be surprised at the results of the caucus tomorrow nights. >> that 72% favorability, top of the heap for the gop contenders, but do you have a sense that sort of enthusiasm will, indeed, translate to caucus votes? >> absolutely. because while others may have struck a nerve on the anger and frustration among others, i think dr. carson has created a wave of grass roots support, people who believe in his message of trying to take back america and restore the values on which this nation was founded. i think that translates not just into votes but support. we have volunteers in the local office make an average of 10,000 calls a day. people are all in for dr dr. carson. i think we'll see really a difference or see that show in the caucuses tomorrow night. >> this is an interesting development in that donald trump and ted cruz appear to have split the evangelical vote in iowa. can dr. carson succeed without

the backing of conservative christians? >> well, i think that really is his base. he is a very strong believing christian. he said yesterday that, quoting jesus himself, that it's the fruit that you have to look at. not just what somebody says, the fruit. dr. carson is of high integrity. he won't compromise or lie. as he takes his message directly to the people, he's resonating. there's been a strong momentum that's been building over the last few weeks. >> larry is an inside other that staff. we want to ask you about a sensitive question. as we look ahead to new hampshire, as you know, the staff of the pro-carson super pac, they defected to the cruz campaign. there's been reports of dissension among carson's staff. jonathan capehart wrote about it in "the washington post" that says what started as a noble enterprise is an humiliating

spectacle. talk about the impact. >>ist just the opposite. i'm a dividend of the changes made at the first of the year. i've been the communications director since january 11th. and i think dr. carson has been very encouraged by the new team he's put in place. he took a deep dive, made adjustments, which a leader is prone to do. i think he's got a team now that is firmly behind him and is consistent with the values that he represents. and it's showing in terms of the response we're seeing everywhere he goes. >> well, it's a very busy next 36 hours or so. thank you for joining us. best of look. >> thank you, alex. the entire family has joined hillary clinton out on the campaign trail. has it really helped to have the former president and first daughter out in iowa? some insights from a new poll coming your way next. to folks out there whose diabetic nerve pain...

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the main reason i'm so proud to support my mom in this election is because this is the first election for president that i will vote in as a mom. >> as long as they have been disgusted by political paralysis and gridlock in washington, you first need a sticker, a sticker. somebody who won't quit on you. somebody who won't quit when the going gets tough. someone who will both stand their ground and will always leave the door open to common ground. she's the best at that i've ever known. >> two of hillary clinton's biggest fans campaigning for her in iowa yesterday. let's bring in my panel, once again. beth, overall, the impact you think the former president and first daughter can have on the campaign? how do you read it? >> i don't know if it's going to

generate more votes. it's a good idea to bring your family out on the campaign trail. in 2008 chelsea clinton was very reluctant to come out. when she did come out, she didn't speak much. she's gained a lot of poise. she's a mom, pregnant again with a second child. she's stepped into a different role than she has in the past. it definitely makes her mom look -- you know, look like somebody's got a family. in many ways, people think of hillary clinton as being this very shut off person, doesn't have a lot of empathy. bill is the most popular democrat in america. i don't think he'll help with young people but certainly older votes in iowa who remember the '90s, it can't hurt. >> "the des moines register"/bloomberg poll, 18% say he represents the past, not the future, has a history of problem with women. here's the good news, though. backing up what you said, beth, 73% say he's a successful president, good ideas for how to take this country forward. if that's the more prominent

number, how do you read it? >> it's going to depend on who comes out to vote. the tight margin with sanders and with hillary. you look at the youth support that sanders is supposedly going to draw. and so much of that is bill clinton hurts. it's very much a generational attitude toward bill clinton and what happened with his sexual mishappens mishapps in the '90s. young voters don't like that and have a vision rceral reaction t >> clinton voters are looking for confidence and somebody who can run government. sanders' voters are more about ideology. clinton doesn't do anything to win over the ideological, progressive wing of the party. so, on the whole, it's good to have him there but it's not a deal-breaker or a maker for either candidate. >> i also think it's interesting to look at him now.

we think of president clinton as being this young, vibrant president. he's looking quite frail anymore. in part, he's had heart surgery. he is an older man. pushing toward 70. he definitely doesn't have that oomph of like a barack obama did when he was coming up. and when bill clinton was coming up in '92. he really does represent the past. even though many democrats look fondly on that past, it's not a way to reach out to new voters. >> you make a good point. hold your thoughts. we'll have you back after a short break. rand paul says donald trump is a gop nominee is an alarming prospect. why he says the billionaire would turn the party, quote, lily white. msnbc's melissa harris-perry is joining me, and the panel, next. could protect you from diabetes? what if one sit-up could prevent heart disease? one. wishful thinking, right? but there is one step you can take to help prevent another serious disease. pneumococcal pneumonia. if you are 50 or older, one dose of the prevnar 13® vaccine

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get fast-acting, long-lasting relief from heartburn with it neutralizes stomach acid and is the only product that forms a protective barrier that helps keep stomach acid in the stomach where it belongs. for fast-acting, long-lasting relief. try gaviscon®. welcome back to "weekends with alex witt." rand paul asked what having donald trump would mean for the

diversity in the republican party? >> a lot are alarmed by having donald trump as a nominee. i'm one who says we need a bigger, bolder, better party. that means a more diverse party. i think donald trump will make us sort of the lily white party, which is not going to win any elections, frankly. and i worry about him scaring people away based on ethnic general tis, which i don't think are good for our party or good for the country. >> let's bring in my colleague, melissa harris-perry from des moines right now. what do you think of rand paul's remarks? >> well, so, i think that mr. paul is doing two things. one, i think he's identifying a challenge, a concern that's been articulated by many people about the troubling discourse that has emerged from the trump campaign. and that is -- it's actually now several weeks old. i mean, really most, you know, kind of -- in terms of when it was most salient was around the

language about building a wall, around the discourse around immigration, particularly from our southern border. then the language of bang all muslims from entering the country. and so there have been a great deal of public conversation, on both sides of the aisle. about, you know, quite simply saying that language is racist language. that we cannot as americans say that we will have an identity-based test for entrance into our country. that that flies in the face of who we are as a people. but let me just say, that for the conversation to be that donald trump would individually be responsible for making the republican party racially homogenous, that's a species claim. it's really the problem of voter suppression efforts that actually is making the entire

electorate more racially homogenous by keeping out people who we know are more likely or less likely to have voter identification or more likely to need longer voting hours and more voting days. and the republican party has stood very much, all of these candidates have stood very much for these barriers to voting. and so while i hear mr. paul, i also am very concerned that he wants to put all of this off on one candidate while not taking and shouldering his own sort of responsibility for the ways in which the structural barriers to participation for all people in this process is part of this. >> there's another thing i want to have you respond to. it happened this morning on our air when our colleague tamron hall spoke with sanders' supporter nina turner about the black vote. here's part of that conversation. >> tamron, i'm having a moment here. nobody owns the black vote. the black vote should be earned. it is curious to me that our folks are the only voting bloc

where people assume which direction we're going to go in. my message to the black community this morning and to all communities is that no one should allow themselves to be taken for granted. unfortunately, lots of times the democratic party itself as a whole has taken the african-american community for granted. >> do the establishment wings of the party, melissa, do they make a mistake of thinking as the black vote as a monolithic entity? >> as an empirical matter, african-americans as one point voted about 90% for the republican party. that was in the era immediately after reconstruction. and then there was sort of a kind of 50% vote for about five minutes. and then after roosevelt, 90% of african-americans gave their vote to the democratic party. that's a moral and ethical claim. this is a really important but. the question around the african-american vote is the question of turnout. here is the thing that

african-americans absolutely have every right to do and regularly, in fact, do. they stay home. and so the question for the democratic party has typically been really since about the mid-1970s forward. much less about whether or not they're going to lose african-american voters to republicans, which has regularly been pretty unlikely. there was actually sort of a moment around the very first election of george w. bush. hard to imagine now, but, in fact, was true in the election of george w. bush in his first election where a slightly higher proportion of african-american voters gave their votes to the republican party. it could still happen in the future. it's unlikely to happen in 2016. but what could happen in 2016 is that african-american voters could decide that the democratic party is not speaking importantly to their issues. and staying home is a vote. and it is a way of voting with your feet. it's a way that could absolutely decimate the democratic party's capacity to win in the general election.

so, i -- you know, i never am going to disagree with nina turner because she's just nina turner. i will say it's simply an empirical matter, this question of the extent to which black voters have supported the democratic party. but staying home is also a way to, in fact, make the democratic party earn your vote. >> well, point well made there, melis melissa harris-perry. thanks from des moines. let's go to the bernie sanders campaign. he's in a statistical tie with hillary clinton. today he hit back hard at her allegation that his health care plan won't fly. >> what secretary clinton has implied throughout this campaign, or last month or two, that somehow i who has spent my life guaranteeing universal health care, to have the united states join the rest of the industrialized world in making health care, somehow i'm going to dismantle the health care system and leave millions of children without health care, he

would elderly people without health care. that's absolutely an outrageous and incorrect statement. >> danny is joining us from the sanders' campaign in iowa city. what's the scene with the waning hours to go? >> reporter: well, thank you, alex. the scene right here, i can say for sure, is that senator sanders is playing to win. just this morning he did a media blitz, holding a lot of interviews with a number of major media organizations. today he has four events later on in the afternoon. two of them are going to be held at universities. now, i mention that because as many people have said, including senator sanders himself, a lot of his support does come from younger people, usually college-age students. he is hoping and planning on those people turning out to vote for him come caucus night. "the des moines register" poll, sanders said himself, it's virtually tied. however, senator sanders has 63% support of younger people. that's people under the age of

35 to secretary clinton's 27%. that is no small number. last night was very clear evidence of that. i'm here in iowa city, the university of iowa, senator sanders with vampire week held a big rally with 3900 people turning out. 3900 people. in order to turn those people out they were hoping to get them to sign caucus cards because they feel they are the ones to turn the tide for senator sanders tomorrow night. >> they certainly are making up the surge for him, that's for sure. danny freeman, thank you so much. we'll see you again. one thing all the candidates are worried about that could seriously hurt turnout tomorrow night, and just how many ads are aired, it's not 10,000. it's not 50,000. the answer when we come back. >> i just want to get a sense for -- between clinton and sanders. just a gut feeling in terms of who will be -- who did the best job moving forward. beyond natural grain free pet food is committed to truth on the label.

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i think we have a real shot to win this if there is a large voter turnout. if we can win this and pull off a major upset, it will be a springboard, i think, to other states. >> bernie sanders on "meet the press" this morning. let's bring back in my panel. beth, turnout was certainly key in '08. clinton lost because of the turnout. what bernie sanders was saying, is it all going to turn in his favor for the democrats if he's able to get that kind of support and ride this surge? >> everybody's looking at what happened in 2008. as you said, there were 240,000 democrats turned out in '08 compared to 125,000 the campaign before. so, it was a doubling of the turnout. strangely enough, secretary clinton, then-senator clinton, hit all her targets but barack obama just blew through it.

there was such a surge of voters who had never showed up before. even though as secretary then-senator clinton did pretty well with caucusgoers, almost all of barack obama's were first-time caucusgoers. can bernie sanders replicate that? it's going to be tough. it's not just an inspirational candidate, have you to have the organization behind him. barack obama's campaign was on the year in iowa, organizing the heck out of that place. it wasn't just the speechs, it was on the ground, one by one, neighborhood by neighborhood that got those people out for you. >> the monmouth university poll, the more people that will turn out to the caucuses, that will, in effect, support donald trump and his candidacy. is that going to be his path to victory? is it all about turnout for him? does that carry into new hampshire and beyond? >> it should, if can do this. if we look at the seltzer poll.

on the democratic side they're predicting a third of caucusgoers will be first-timers. on the republican side, they're projecting that about 45% will be first-time as opposed to 40% four years ago. which means the vast majority of those are donald trump supporters. if he can get that number up, historical high was 14,000 four years ago. everyone expects this to be historical high. the question s how high? the higher is goes, ted cruz may gain 5,000 votes at most. donald trump could gain 20,000. >> most of donald trump supporters are not regular voters. they've not gone through this process before. at least they haven't done so in a long time. so, could this -- could that be, i guess, the death nail for him? >> that's why i'm still skeptical because are people

going to come out and vote? i know that with the rand paul campaign, they've put a ton of effort with students for rand in the student organization, and they have people in every precinct. it's the same thing. are kids going to come out and vote like these disaeffected democrats who might be trump supporters going to make it out to vote? >> in the past, the social conservative candidate, whether rick santorum or mike huckabee, actually did better than the final poll show them. the evangelical support came out, you bring a couple friends from church to come out, that's good. the trump voters are what i call the zombie voters. they're going to be responding to the call of the zombie king and coming out all by themselves without any contact, without any prior participation and take and go out. >> here's a factor, you guys, mother nature, because there is a strong winter storm. that could affect voter turnout in iowa tomorrow. let's go over to msnbc meteorologist bonnie snyder. how is this timing out? >> it looks like areas in the

western part of the state, the rural areas, will likely be impacted first. we have a blizzard watch in effect. it will go in effect monday evening for the west, but then into in early in the hours of tuesday morning. by the time we get to tuesday, we're looking at a full-fledged blizzard across much of the state. it will be intermittent in terms of snowfall at times, especially in the southeast part where we might not see much accumulation at all, so it's a dividing line in terms of accumulation. heavy snow like in council bluffs, this is where we could see not only the blowing and drifting snow but very heavy amounts. possibly up to 10 inches of snow. and then notice off to the south, it's definitely looking a lot less. the weather is going to have an impact ottawa what caucus. it looks like the worst will happen the day after on tuesday. so, traveling back, alex, that will be tricky. >> well, let's hope it stays that way for those caucusgoers. bernie sanders and trump and the one thing their voters are in common. to folks out there whose diabetic nerve pain...

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at 53 past, we're waiting for florida marco rubio to speak at northern iowa in cedar falls. rubio is third in the final "des moines register"/bloomberg politics poll. all around the hawkeye state, campaign staffers are hitting the street, trying to round up last-minute voters for tomorrow's caucuses but even now they are turning up surprises. >> i like that donald is using all of his own money. he's not -- >> no special interest. >> no special interest. >> right, right. >> and he's run companies. but i also like bern's stance on what ought to be done to turn the money situation around in wall street. >> let's bring in former vermont governor, dnc chair, howard dean, also a msnbc contributor. let's get to what you heard that woman say. she's not the only person who

seems to be torn between trump and sanders. "the new york times" talks about how their supporters are united by anger at the establishment, the state of this country. what do you make of that? >> this is a long-standing coalition that bernie's had. i remember my last run as governor, which is after i signed the silly union's bill in 2000 was a very tough race for me. and i was running against a very attractive, very conservative candidate on the other side. and she clobbered me up in the northeast kingdom, the conservative part of the state. and bernie sanders got every vote that my very conservative opponent got. so, he has a history of building these kinds of coalitions. and there is a lot of anger. it's anger at the establishment. there's been that anger for quite some time that's fueled bernie's career. >> you know, tripp gabriel suggests the anger taps into the midwest populism but it could

bring about the anger of the outsider and could that resonate beyond iowa? >> well, it will resonate beyond iowa, but i have trouble thinking you can get elected president of the united states simply by being angry at people. which is why i think bernie is a better candidate than donald trump, because donald trump is outrageous and in your face and says things that are blatantly racist and bernie sanders does not do that. so, this is going to be fascinating. i think hillary's going to win. and as you know, i'm supporting hillary and i think she's going to win tomorrow. but, you know, bernie is a very interesting candidate because he gives a message that a lot of people agree with, no matter where they are in the political spectrum. >> do you think we can look at this as sort of a trend, a reaction to the obama campaigns, also an outsider effort, also based on trying to change the status quo? >> no. i think bernie's crowd -- i know that there's a thing, he's got all these young people and all this stuff. bernie's crowd is older, white,

especially men, although he's doing well with women that are 45, who are angry because they've lost their jobs and they felt the squeeze and they don't like it. those people are on the liberal end of the spectrum as well as the conservative end of the spectrum. again, i think -- i believe hillary is a better candidate for the general election. she'll definitely be a better president. this phenomenon is real. it's one of the reasons i'm glad bernie is in the race because this stuff is important to the country. and he's right. and i think hillary is also leading the way on this. we have got to deal with the disappearing middle class. bernie's made that a major part of his schtick and i think he's right. >> that's the center of everything for him. vermont governor howard dean, good to see you again. appreciate it. the spending spree on tv ads

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the pitch why the other should not win the republican nomination. >> as others attack me, i don't respond in kind. i don't engage. when donald trump calls me a canadian anchor baby, i don't respond with an insult. i'm sing donald's praises. i like donald. i think he's bold and brash. >> here's a guy with all of these senators. not one endorsement of cruz because he's a nasty guy. nobody likes him. ted cruz is a total liar. i'm so against obamacare. i've been saying it for two years in my speeches. i'm going to repeal and replace obamacare. i don't know where he gets this, but he's a liar. >> 14 candidates are in iowa holding a combined total of 40 events. takes a couple graphic screens to show you how many can days are in the hawk haeye state. chris jansinging is following marco rubio, kristin welker is following hillary clinton. danny freeman is with the bernie

sanders' team. and halle jackson is in des moines with ted cruz. the candidates are trying to gt as many people to caucus for them, including ted cruz, but one of their tactics is gaining criticism from officials in iowa. halle jackson is following that for us. talk about this. where is the criticism coming from? >> th >>. >> reporter: this is eyebrows. the cruz sending out mailers that say, voting violations and list the reason these people should go out and caucus. it's getting some fire from the iowa secretary of state, which scolded the cruz campaign over the weekend for these mailers. some people concerned it might be some privacy invasion. donald trump even jumping on this and tweeting about it this morning. the cruz campaign points out these mailers are a common practice to try to boost turnout, to try to get out the vote, even pointing to similar smalers that have been sent in the past in iowa. a campaign aide telling me that it's unprecedented to them that a government official, the secretary of state in iowa,

could come out and say something like this so close to caucuses. making comments by governor b n branstad. the candidates are doing anything they can to make sure people show up to the caucuses. that includes attacking rivals. as we heard ted cruz do this morning. listen. >> both trump and marco are attacking me with all their might. we're drawing contrasts. they're clear and substantive and policy-based. a vote for marco rubio is a vote for amnesty. and a vote for donald trump is a vote for obamacare. >> reporter: cruz has taken it as a point of pride that he's come under fire from his fellow republicans in this field. he loves saying on the stump, if you're not taking flack, then you're not over the target. you're seeing that from candidates, including marco rubio, who's faced negative

advertising from his rivals. all is representative of the final scramble on this caucus eve, alex, as candidates are crisscrossing the state and doing whatever they can to try to convince these voters, these caucusgoers in iowa, to brake for them. >> that's exactly what they're doing. thank you very much. let's get perspective on the cruz mailers. i'm joined in studio by my panel, elise jordan, beth fouhy is editor of msnbc.com, patrick murray, director of monmouth university polling. the headline, how cruz blew the iowa expectations game. rubio can lose to cruz on monday and walk away looking like the winner. interpret that. agree? >> i think it's a problem that cruz got ahead of himself and bragging that he was ahead and he peaked a month early. in that time, the other candidates have doubled down on

him and attacked him and targeted him. so, all of these super pac ads have taken a toll. that said, it's so disingenuous for cruz to say -- still claim he's holier than thou and not attacking candidates because he has and clearly attacking trump aggressively. >> the point about the cruz mailers, are they out of line? >> any time anybody gets something in the mail telling them they're in violation of something, that seems to be alarmist and probably not the best thing for a candidate to do. people don't want to be told they're in violation and that they should be, you know, marched over to the caucus and show up or else. you know, there's this sort of implicit threat there. since we're talking about sturnout being the key for everybody, everybody is trying to maximize their in on that. evidently, the cruz campaign thought there was traction gotten by that mailer at other times in iowa, so why not try it? it doesn't sound like a great tactic. >> does it this help cruz or

hurt him? >> i looked at a lot of voter motivation studies and scaring the heck out of them usually doesn't get them out to vote and support you. i think, yeah, cruz is really worried right now. i think that's what that showed. >> it is it all because he has -- he said, it's going to me winning, winning, winning, and that is the only thing that will show his success, he has to win? >> i think there's a ceiling on cruz's support. i think he's going to hit, like hillary clinton did in 2008, he's going to hit all his targets. what they're worried about is donald trump just blowing away his target -- if he even has targets but donald trump supporters coming out in such big numbers they overwhelm the maximum ceiling cruz thinks he can get. >> rubio and trump are both good fits for new hampshire. cruz is not. very few evangelical voters in new hampshire. cruz is all in in iowa. if he doesn't hit that big number, he hits that wall.

he has to wait until south carolina to try to prove himself. in the meantime, he's probably not going to do all that well in new hampshire. he hasn't campaigned there much. it's not his kind of state. rubio and trump if they walk out of iowa looking stronger, they have a much bigger advantage over cruz than just they're head-to-head in iowa. >> he probably won't do well in south carolina either. he was waiting for some further caucus states, colorado and some other states like oklahoma. so, he needed this iowa win to last him for a few weeks. if he doesn't get it, yeah. >> they tried -- the cruz campaign tried to shift expectations and say, well, we are going to do really well in the s.e.c. states but that is so far away at this point. i think that mailer was the desperation that the campaign has this weekend. kind of in meltdown mode that started on the debate stage when he was attacked very effectively by his rivals. >> in terms of marco rubio right now, i know he's set to take the stage in the first of three events he's going to attend in the hawkeye state. chris jansing with the latest. chris, what can we expect from

marco rubio as he makes his final push before the caucuses? >> reporter: on the conversation you were just having, he's trying to set expectations for ted cruz. he's trying to say, ted cruz needs to win here because then if donald trump wins, he looks like the guy who actually has the momentum. marco rubio does. that's very important. there are only so many tickets that come out of here. it's not just the winner. it's the margins, it's who comes in second and in third. and so that's very critical for marco rubio going forward. and he likes what he sees. not just in terms of the overall numbers but the numbers behind the numbers of that "des moines register" poll that has been so accurate in years past. take a look at some of the things that the marco rubio campaign likes. most thushenthusiastic, when yok at people, how enthusiastic are you about your candidate, how likely are you to actually get out to the polls, he comes in first at almost 60%. his favorability rating is second only to dr. carson.

in fact, statistically it's a dead heat, 70% versus 72%. like act, very important in a place like this because people take a measure of candidates by looking them in the eye, by meeting them. it's -- that's the unique part of iowa. these folks who want to go to the caucuses have ample opportunities to meet these candidates in person. finally, with about 45% of people saying they might be able to go one way or another, aren't 100% sure they're going to stick with the candidate they feel like they're going to caucus for now, 20%, again, the highest number, 20%, say that marco rubio is their second choice. so, he's doing what all the candidates are doing. he's getting out there, making as many appearances as possible, shaking as many hands as he possibly can. like a lot of the candidates yesterday, getting behind on the schedule because you don't want to leave that one voter left unturned. but it's a critical day for marco rubio on monday, as it is for so many of these candidates.

so much at stake. i can tell you, being out here, going on the trail, going to some events like marco rubio's yesterday, you feel that intensity. >> from in des moines, ris january sing. kerry sanders is covering the trump campaign in council bluffs, iowa. i understand mr. trump has an event starting any time now. not totally full. what's your read on that? >> reporter: well, it's still filling up. donald trump is running late. yes, you can see here we're in council bluffs, one of two stops on a sunday. remember, people have a lot of other things going on in their lives on sunday, including church, the evangelical vote, of course, very important. let me take you outside here. you can see the lines that started forming rather early. nonetheless, it takes a while to get into these events because of the secret service pop a sunny day, folks are gathered outside waiting to come and hear donald trump speak, when he does speak. once inside, they're met with two questions.

>> it has been ruled upon, it has been there. if i'm a -- you know, if i'm elected, i would be very strong on putting certain judges on the bench i think maybe could change things. i disagree with the supreme court, it should be a states' rights issues. that's the way they should have been ruled on. not the way they did it. this is a very surprising ruling. i can see changes coming count line, frankly. >> reporter: that was not the question voters are met with when they walk in. rather, that was a question on fox news sunday specifically to donald trump about appointments to the u.s. supreme court, working to be elected president and how he feels about appointing people who either support or, in his case, he believes do not support the idea of same-sex marriage and saying that he believes that that should be a state's decision and not a federal decision. not one for the u.s. supreme court.

now, as the people are walking in here, the question they're being hit with are two. first of all, are you a registered voter? you can do same-day registration on caucus night, but having it in advance does smooth things out. the second question, perhaps the most important one, do you know where you're going to caucus? a lot of people are scratching their heads, not sure where they're going to caucus so they're helping them out, despite the fact that the trump campaign has put up a website to try to direct people on where they need to go and how to actually go and be more than just a trump fan, but to be a trump voter, supporter, by going to that caucus. i getz guess that's the real question, alex, are those we see here, that are still filing in, are they the fans or are they the voters? we won't know until we sort of get the results from the caucus night. >> yeah. you know, kerry, you did an excellent job paraphrasing those two questions but since we have that sound bite, we'll play it so they can hear what people are

specifically being asked. >> are we registered republicans? >> yes. >> yes. do we know where our caucus is? no? >> so there it is. >> reporter: people are saying, they're not sure where they're going to go. this registration table they set up at the event because this is what donald trump calls crunch time. this is where the rubber meets the road. all those people who donald trump seemingly has pulled out of the apathy that exists in at least iowa and much of america, people who have said, i don't feel like, you know, politics is for me, a lot of these people are telling me, they've never even paid attention to politics. now for some reason they feel connected to donald trump, the nonpolitician, they say. >> okay. tapping into something special there, that's for sure. kerry sanders there in council bluffs, thank you for that. let's go to nbc's kristin welker following hillary clinton in des moines. with another welcome to you. bernie sanders is merely cutting into clinton's lead in iowa.

there's just three points in the most recent poll that separates them, within the margin of error, we should say. do you get a sense it's making her team nervous? >> reporter: well, i think that they have been dealing with this sanders surge for quite some time. they're not surprised by it. they like the fact they're three points up. it's a slim lead, as you point out, but better than being behind, they would argue. they're feeling a measured confidence going into the final 24 hours. at the same time, there's a real focus on the ground game. there is no doubt about that. every caucusgoer is going to matter tomorrow night. secretary clinton also pulling out all of the stops to make her final pitch. late last night she was campaigning throughout iowa, with her husband, former president bill clinton as well as daughter chelsea clinton. she got some good news yesterday, alex. she was endorsed by "the new york times" and also endorsed by 28 african-american ministers and faith leaders. she met with them earlier in the week in philadelphia.

at same time, she finds herself on defense a bit after the revelation on friday that the state department is withholding 22 of the e-mails from her private server when she was secretary of state. saying that those e-mails are top secret. the clinton campaign pushing back against that decision, calling on the state department to release the e-mails and underscoring that secretary clinton never sent or received any e-mails that were marked as classified at the time. earlier today she was asked about all this and asked about some of the allegations by her fellow democrats. all of this has a political undertone. take a listen to how she answered the question. >> well, i'm going to leave that to others who are quite experienced in the ways of washington to comment on. i just have to point out that the timing and some of the leaks that have led up to it are concerning. >> so, as we listen to that sound bite, is the secretary then implying this is all politically motivated? all of this, most recently released, the timing in all of

it? >> reporter: she seemed to suggest the timing is questionable, didn't she? and she's certainly choosing her words carefully right now. this is her way of pivoting away from the very thorny issue from the campaign, trying to remind folks she's often the target of republicans. at the same time, the reality is, there is an fbi investigation into this, so the campaign has that hanging over their head so they would like nothing more than to turn the page on this issue, particularly as they have so little time before caucusgoers get out and weigh in themselves. this will come down to turnout and that's the focus for both campaigns, clinton and sanders trying make sure no voter is overlooked in iowa. >> at least on that everyone can agree. thank you so much, kristin welker in des moines. the battle between hillary clinton and bernie sanders raises a question in the new "des moines register"/bloomberg poll and 80% of likely democratic caucusgoers say, it is time for a woman. 68% say it would be okay to have

a president describing himself as a democratic socialist, but how could donald trump lead in iowa, overall, when he trails on issues of favorability and enthusiasm? a trump campaign insider straight ahead. i'm mary ellen, and i quit smoking with chantix. i have smoked for thirty years and by taking chantix, i was able to quit in three months. and that was amazing. along with support, chantix (varenicline) is proven to help people quit smoking. it absolutely reduced my urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. some had seizures while taking chantix. if you have any of these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of mental health problems, which could get worse or of seizures. don't take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you have these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away as some can be life-threatening. tell your doctor if you have heart or blood vessel problems, or develop new or worse symptoms.

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about 31 hours from tomorrow night's caucuses. the new "des moines register" poll shows 45% of republicans in iowa say they could still be persuaded to change their minds. i remind you, today's programming on msnbc is all about iowa. at the top of the hour "meet the press" with candidates cruz, rubio and sanders. steve kornacki picks up our coverage at 3:00 p.m. eastern, followed by chris matthews at 5:00 p.m. eastern.

chuck todd at 6:00 p.m. eastern, and at 8:00 p.m. eastern, brian williams and rachel maddow with chris matthews leading the team on the ground in iowa. all of that to come in msnbc. let's bring in katrina pearson. welcome back to the broadcast on this very busy day for you. let's get to the new poll numbers from "the des moines register" which shows your candidate retaking the lead in iowa with 28% there, up from 22%. your clothe closest rival, ted cruz, coming in at 23%. how confident is donald trump that he is going to be the winner in iowa? >> hi, alex. i think mr. trump is very confident. the team is very excited. we've been here for a week. the voters are getting to hear a lot about the candidates. the rallies are packed. we're excited mr. trump is out there talking about how to make america great again when it comes to trade and the economy. we're just really excited. >> what about the potential uphill battle for mr. trump to

win the hearts and minds of voters nationwide? i'm sure you're familiar with the gallup survey in which it finds a full 60% of americans find mr. trump unfavorably. gallup found trump has the highest unfavorability rating since that organization began tracking this type of data back in 1992. do you have a reaction to those unfavorable numbers? >> i think if you look at who's leading on the issue, it's hands down, mr. trump. he blows everyone away when it comes to foreign trade, issues like that. he's speaking harsh realities. sometimes that hits people the wrong way when we've had conditioning for decades on what a candidate is supposed to say or not say or how they're supposed to say it. the reason he's leading on all the issues is because he's right and voters agree. >> rand paul this morning talked about republicans who are concerned about what a trump victory could mean for the party. here's part of what he said. >> there's a lot of us who are

alarmed by having donald trump as a nominee. i'm one who says we have to have a bigger, better, bolder party. that means a more diverse party. i think donald trump will make us sort of the lily white party, which is not going to win any elections, frankly. and i worry about him scaring people away sort of on ethnic generalities which are not good for our party or the country. >> what's your reaction to senator paul? >> i don't think senator paul has been paying attention, particularly when you look at polls in nevada and you see that 40% of african-americans are supporting mr. trump. 35% of hispanics. we're seeing this all across the country. he's been endorsed by black pastors. he's been endorsed by all kinds, from all sides of the aisle whether it's gender, age, even political affiliations. one thing for sure is most people can can agree on now is mr. trump is the only candidate that has been to broaden the base to the wideness where he could win a general election. that's why hillary clinton herself and her super pac are

turning their attention on mr. trump, because he is by far the one candidate they don't want to run against. >> as you know, iowa is just the first stop in a very long road. win or lose, how will iowa impact mr. trump's strategy in new hampshire? >> well, mr. trump really wants to win iowa. he's been campaigning very hard in iowa. i'm confident we're going to win iowa. but it would not hurt him politically if he did not win iowa. he's doing very strong in new hampshire and south carolina, florida. so, we're really confident mr. trump is going to win the gop nomination. he has it in his heart to win iowa but politically it won't hurt if he doesn't. >> i'm betting you have a very busy day, so thank you for taking time. >> i do. great to be here. thank you. >> let's bring back in my panel. patrick, i want to get to what dan balls of "the washington post" has written about in saying, after speaking with strategists, they say the republican establishment still thinks it can stop donald trump and ted cruz but it's only going

to happen once the field winnows down significantly. do you see opportunities where they can be stopped? >> yeah. i looked at analysis in votes of past primaries versus this one. in general, the establishment candidate gets about 40% of the vote going into it. social conservative gets about 40%. the outsider candidate, someone like a ron paul from a few years ago, would get 20%. this year, the establishment candidates are getting 40% of the vote. it's just that there's four or more of them. so, they're splitting it. so, yes, if they can coalesce quickly around one candidate, then, yes, they can take on donald trump. this is why we'rer talking about marco rubio today. if marco rubio looks like the guy set up to do that, but if this drags on and there's not a clear establishment candidate by the time we get to super tuesday, then they could be handing this to donald trump. >> we are talking about rubio with his surge, but do you think it is his time right now? could he be the one the establishment coalesces around? >> for so many months we've been

hearing there's a rubio surge, a rubio surge. this is actually, in my opinion, the first time there might actually be one. the small uptick. he was the only person in the poll who went up, but it wasn't trump went up, but trump had also been down. he's the only one who's in an upward trajectory. i do find that to be an interesting trend, especially looking at how santorum came, snuck up. you're seeing how -- we heard talk about, oh, all the rhetoric doesn't matter. it's only the week ahead of iowa. the week ahead of iowa. the last three days people really start thinking about the issues and who they're going to vote for. >> one thing you have to remember, the people who go into these caucuses hear speech on the republican side and the democratic side, but on the republican side before they cast their ballot. some of those speeches from the proxies for these candidates might be things like a marco rubio proxy might say, people are going in there for bush or kasich or christie to say, look, we got to stop donald trump. at this point, my guy is the guy to do it. he might -- they might get them to switch some votes. >> do you see a candidate, beth,

who's best positioned to be the nominee, whether an outsider or establishment candidate? >> it's so hard to tell. i think a lot comes down to what you're saying, is whether the establishment whether coalesce around one candidate. that's not happened as we discussed with rubio. surprising to me there haven't been more of the members of congress, governors, folks in the republican kind of hierarchy throughout the country who have gotten behind him if he truly think he's the best bet. on the other hand, there's a lot of support for kasich out there, certainly jeb. he's very popular among many establishment republicans. christie as well. if the field really starts to winnow and knocks out those guys and rubio is the only establishment guy standing, i think we will see that coalescing happen. on the other hand, maybe by that point trump is so strong, he wins iowa and new hampshire. he's barrelling toward florida, which he's leading, you know, by a 3 to 1 margin, prarlly, with two floridans in that race. >> winner take all race. >> a ton of delegates.

it may be too late once the establishment decides to get behind somebody. >> we'll get to that shortly. door-to-door, face-to-face, the volunteers who make the ground game succeed for candidates. >> do you decide who you're going to caucus for? >> your man. >> oh, no, way! in the iowa papers today, the hawkeye in burlington call's tomorrow's decision day the end of the road, capping more than a year of campaigning. the quad-city times devotes the front page to the how-tos and the keys to the big event. was engineered... ...to help sense danger before you do. because when you live to innovate, you innovate to live. the all-new audi q7. a higher form of intelligence has arrived.

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campaigning before the caucuses. at this hour senator marco rubio is kicking off a rally in cedar falls. earlier this morning, senator rubio pushed back on what his critics are calling a change in his position on immigration. >> a lot of republicans in iowa i have talked to that really like you and then they say, why won't he repudiate the gang of eight? >> that's not how we're going to do it when i'm president. that's not the law i'm going to pass -- >> do you regret every being involved? >> i tried to fix the problem. this is a real problem. >> meanwhile, big news from the sanders camp at this hour. let's go to danny freeman, who is on the sanders' press bus on the way to waterloo, iowa. bernie sanders has four events in this one evening. what can we expect him in this final push? >> that's right. we just got that news in the past 20 minutes or so that senator sanders' campaign has raised $20 million just in the

month of january alone. in a press release send out by the campaign, they took a shot again -- failed shot, that is, at the fact that clinton has super pac help and that super pac is dominating this campaign presidential election. the other thing that's of note in that particular press release is they said they have now had over 3.25 million donations over the course of his campaign. which is a sizeable amount and what he says is a record-breaking amount of donations at this point in any presidential cycle in history. now, i'm currently on the press bus heading to waterloo. bernie sanders has four events today. four at universities which he hopes will bring most of his support from younger and college students. so, reporting live for you all day throughout the day from sanders events, back to you, alex. >> i love the technology of you cruising down the road and bringing it to our viewers live. thank you very much. the sanders ham contain paz been rallying volunteers in iowa pushing stronger turnout.

my colleague jacob is joining me now. i understand you joined in on the canvassing, is that right? >> that's right right. turnout is the name of the game as we talked about the last couple of days and canvassing is the way to turn out voters door-to-door. we launched here at bernie sanders' headquarters with one of those canvassers. take a look at this. >> if you could sign up. have you signed in already? >> reporter: what's happening is these people are signing up to go canvass for bernie sanders. that's going door-to-door to get every last vote before the caucuses. what do you do? >> i retired last year. now i work -- i'm back working part-time at the iowa department of public health. i do some -- this kind of volunteer stuff. >> reporter: why did you decide to support bernie? >> i've been a life-long left-leaner. not always a democrat. >> not necessarily a democrat, meaning what? >> back in the '60s and '70s i was a socialist.

>> reporter: got it. where are we? >> beaverdale. you live around here? i do. three blocks down. >> right here. we've got a couple -- looks like a place here and a place -- >> reporter: you must be committed. show me how it's done. see if there's a doorbell here. >> reporter: here we go. >> are you matthew? >> i am. >> did you decide who you're going to caucus for? >> your man. >> oh, no way. >> great to meet you. >> reporter: take care. >> thanks for stopping by. >> have a good one. >> reporter: nicely done. that was easy. >> yeah. >> reporter: is it usually that easy? >> yeah. >> reporter: where to next? >> we're going to go right here. this looks like a door -- >> reporter: if they're not here, you put this up on the door? have you ever had a door slammed in your face? >> oh, yeah. >> reporter: really?

>> don't wreck my car. >> hello. are you going to caucus this year? >> i can't. have i to work. but i love to caucus. i've taken my children. >> who are you going to support? >> the donald. if it wasn't the donald, it would be the bernie. >> there you go. >> reporter: did you expect that? >> no. that's what i'm talking about. that's what you get when you knock on doors. she was good. she -- you -- >> reporter: she's who you want to reach. >> this may be weird, but she's very representative of a lot of people. >> reporter: alex, that exchange there at the end with the trump supporter who could actually lean sand certificates basically crucial to bernie sanders' chances here. he talks about how turnout is necessary, high turnout is necessary in the historically low iowa caucus. because of same-day registration, you can switch parties on the day of the caucus. >> at least the trump and

sanders thing in common is they're both outsiders, by some accounts. thank you much. in a moment, on the spot. the campaign ads in the battle for iowa, the ones that hit home and others that missed the mark. o into a new american century. born with a hunger to fly and a passion to build something better. and what an amazing time it's been, decade after decade of innovation, inspiration and wonder. so, we say thank you america for a century of trust, for the privilege of flying higher and higher, together. ♪

the last day before the iowa k cau caucuses and the numbers are in. they have spent $40 million on advertising in just that state. here's the latest ad released by marco rubio this weekend. >> this is the greatest nation, the most exceptional in the history of mankind. there's a lot of reasons for that. we are that one nation that was founded on this incredibly powerful truth. here's the truth that was founded on. that our rights come from god. >> joining me now, nick, who covers political advertising for the "new york times." with a welcome to you. that clip right there is a preview of the 30-minute ad

rubio is airing in iowa today. how unprecedented is that at this stage of a political game? can it be effective or are there concerns people will just tune out? >> it can certainly be effective. maybe it shouldn't be thought of as an ad. a political ad is placed in a program, live sportscast or news ad to a group that doesn't want to see an ad. they're there for another reason. you give your information or make your pitch to them when they might not be paying attention. this is trying to get the channel-changers or people who can't make it out to see senator rubio at a pizza ranch or something like that. it's more reaching out to his people who are already with him, reaffirming his message and not necessarily a persuasion ad. >> interesting you wrote about the bernie sanders "america" ad and that got a lot of attention last week. why do you think it became such a viral hit? >> it played on a few feelings. it was emotional and played on a little nostalgia using the song

from simon and garfunkel. i think what was powerful about that ad, there was no platform, no pitch, no attack, no slurs. there was just scenes of iowans going about their life, beautiful music and a kind of sense that this election is about the voters. you hear politicians say that all the time and then the cameras stay on them. what this ad did was really flipped the camera around, gave the microphone away and let people get a sense of where the country is right now. >> there are those who suggest it feels more like a closer of an ad instead of something to inspire people and get them motivated. there's an energy, yes, there because of the music and there's an emotion, but it's not typical. doesn't get you necessarily fired up. what do you think? >> i think what they were trying to do, i was talking to ted, the shortstop' strategist who created this ad, and said we're trying to get a sense of momentum. the ad starts with a family,

moves through farms and at end it's at a huge rally. you get a sense of momentum. they're trying to inspire people. it's different than getting them fired up. he's running this with another ad called "american horizons" where he gives his platform. he gives a speech and hopefully bringing people out on caucus day. when you look at the two ads together, one is a closing argument. one meant to inspire and the other meant to fire his supporters up and get ready to caucus. >> this ad released on friday, they call it a negative ad, his first one. he's repeatedly said how much he can't stand negative ads. i want to listen to a piece of that. >> how does wall street get away with it? millions in campaign contributions and speaking fees. our economy works for wall street. because it's rigged by wall street. and that's the problem. as long as washington is bought and paid for, we can't build an economy that works for people. >> is this your definition of an attack ad and do you think it's going to help him or hurt him?

>> they call it a contrast ad. i call them unnamed negative ads. you've seen the sanders and clinton campaign trade these on tv. and use kind of negative attacks they've said on the stump -- on the campaign trail in an ad without mentioning them directly. so, yes, i do think in a way it's an attack at secretary clinton and her previous use of speaking fees and everything. whether it will work this late in the game, a lot of these ads are designed to reach out to the people who are with them right now. by making the distinction, he's drawing his final line against south korea clinton and say, this is where we differ. when you put this message on either side of it is his definition of a rigged economy, something he's been talking about for a while. when you put it on either side of it, it can be an effective contrast but it's not an out and out negative ad like you might see from the republicans. >> thank you so much. so, what will tuesday morning's headlines be about? the iowa caucuses? i'm going to ask the panel for

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coming up next hour hillary clinton takes the stage for her get out the caucus event. clinton's final stop will be in des moines. i know hillary clinton heading in to the caucuses on the heels of the state department announcement 22 e-mails were deemed top secret. will that cost her votes? >> reporter: probably not in a large and appreciable way here in iowa. the most likely scenario is the people who have decided to caucus for her have decided what they think about the e-mail situation and the big issue now is will those folks turn out? if she gets a much lower turnout than her campaign has been

expecting the e-mail controversy may be blamed in some part for dampening enthusiasm. but it is largely sort of considered settled law here and probably isn't going to be a huge factor tomorrow. that is not to say that it might not be going forward. >> i was going to ask what is the conventional wisdom beyond iowa? >> the e-mail issue will not go away for her. it hangs over her head in large measure because there is an fbi investigation that is a component of this. no one wants to have the words fbi in the same sentence as your candidate. they don't know how it is going to come out. it is a big question mark that hangs over the campaign. no matter how many times she says she didn't send or receive information labelled clafed at the time, why she set up the situation as she did and the

lingering issue of trustworthiness. >> asked a number for their caucus prediction. i want to read you one of them. i think hillary clinton has rock solid supporters but the enthusiasm is clearly with sanders. do you agree? how important is voter enthusiasm here? >> voter enthusiasm have a very large predictor of who will turn out and actually go and caucus on monday night. i think it is easy to forget that this is a very physical process. this is somebody has the to get in their car and drive somewhere and wait in line and go into a building and probably stand around for two hours and move around within that building for two hours as the caucus votes are counted. that is an undertaking and people have to be willing to do it, spend the time and energy to do it on a monday night. enthusiasm is a big factor in whether they will show up.

sanders has an issue that is also big unknown for him which is he has so many young caucus supporters and people who haven't caucused before or regularly and so there is a follow through question. does enthusiasm equal people showing up for the first time to do this for him. >> about 36 hours until we figure out the answer. always good to see you. >> always good to see my panel. you guys are back one last time. the question to you is, headlines tuesday morning. bring it. i want to hear what you think? >> i think it is going to read trump prevails, rubio rising. >> what do you think? >> donald trump reality show star, real estate mogul, the guy who puts gold all over his buildings won caucus and on the way towards the nomination. >> turnout. it is going to be turnout helps trump and hurts sanders. >> where do we think turnout

will land? all the enthusiasm whether enthusiasm turns out to caucus goers, is turnout as big as this enthusiasm particularly for bernie sanders? >> i have to say i think it is going to be tough. you really have to have done the work that barack obama did to generate that huge turnout that he did in 2008. unclear whether the campaign has accomplished that. if they did, game on. >> i think good turnout. >> and picking up on what you said when you said trump goes on to win the nauomination. do you all agree that if trump wins iowa he takes it? >> he will new hampshire and south carolina even though the team is operated he will sweep south carolina and from there on -- >> one scenario to beat trump if rubio comes in second in iowa and gets an incredible surge in

new hampshire. otherwise game over. >> extraordinary prediction. couldn't have said it six months ago. thank you both so much. appreciate that. that is a wrap of the sunday edition. up next, meet the press with candidates cruz, rubio and sanders. i was a smoker. hands down, it was... that's who i was. after one week of chantix, i knew i could quit. along with support, chantix (varenicline) is proven to help people quit smoking. chantix reduced my urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. some had seizures while taking chantix. if you have any of these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of mental health problems, which could get worse or of seizures. don't take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you have these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away as some can be life-threatening. tell your doctor if you have heart or blood vessel problems, or develop new or worse symptoms. get medical help right away if you have symptoms of a heart attack or stroke.

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this sunday, the iowa caucuses. the candidates have had their say, now it's time for iowa voters to have theirs. can donald trump win here and just simply start to roll? >> i don't even think i have to campaign anymore. why am i even wasting my time? >> can ted cruz beat trump and turn this into a two-man race? >> the time for all that media noise is past. this is your time. >> what about marco rubio? does he finish second and become the chief challenger to trump? >> you see some deceitful things going on in the last minute. >> ted cruz, marco rubio and rand paul are all with me here live. plus, what will the latest e-mail story do to hillary clinton's chances?