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the profile, working class, blue collar republican voters. this is where you would expect donald trump to be having some success tomorrow night. let's see how trump does here. this area in the middle of the state, this is key, if marco rubio could surprise people, rubio has really, really concentrated his efforts in these three counties. ames, where the iowa state university is, des moines, the state capital, and right here to the west, dallas, this is the fastest-growing suburban county in iowa. the rubio idea is to get these white collar, professional class republicans excited, motivated, and out to vote. if rubio is going to surprise people you've got to look here. quickly you just look in iowa city and waterloo, these are college towns. if rand paul makes any noise it will come from there.

>> when we look back at what happened in 2012, obviously the drama was that we didn't know who won iowa for a couple of weeks in the end. there was this confusion that it was maybe a tie. maybe mitt romney had won, no, it was a tie, no, rick santorum won. ultimately he ended up getting something like 34 more votes than mitt romney. when it came time to allocate the delegates ron paul got most are we expecting drama along those lines this year again? >> a couple things to keep in mind about that. first of all, this is a party-run event. this is not run by state election officials. if it's a really close race you can't appeal to the secretary of state or to some public entity to rule on it. you have to appeal to the state republican party. secondly you mentioned sell gate situation from 2012, it takes a few months to allocate convention delegates. the ron paul people kind of gamed that system in 2012, they changed the rules as a result so delegates awarded will be related to what happens tomorrow night. the other thing is the thing about iowa is so much of the

state is rural. 99 counties. i'm giving outbig ones here. a lot of these counties, a lot of these squares, you're talking about 80, 90, 100, 110 people showing up. santorum won by 20, 30 votes, whatever the margin. because of the county he would get 28 votes, mitt romney would get 24. it takes a long time to get all of those in. that's another complicating factor here. >> steve kornacki at the board with all 99 counties in iowa. steve, thanks. and let's go all the way to the west in iowa to sioux city where, as mentioned earlier, donald trump wrapped up an event tonight. katy tur covering for us. what does he have remaining on the schedule? and what room to call iowa audibles? >> reporter: he has a rally tomorrow quite near des moines and waterloo. then he has that -- what he hopes will be a victory party in des moines later tomorrow night. right now this was anything but a raucous rally, a raucous way to end the day before iowans get

out to vote. usually donald trump has very big rallies where people are cheering him. he does call and repeats with them sometimes. this was a much more subdued version of him. sitting onstage with jerry falwell jr., it was this informal question and answer, falwell jr. talking about the charitable giving that donald trump has done. it culminated with them giving a $100,000 check to a local charity out here that supports veterans and soldiers. this all comes from that money they were -- donald trump was able to raise earlier in the week when he skipped out on the debate. he's really been trying to embrace this softer version of himself. i think what the campaign sees is that he's been wild and raucous and boisterous and at times extreme and at times ruffling a lot of feathers on the campaign trail the last seven months. tonight they presented a different version of him, someone easier to talk to, a little nicer, the gentler version of donald trump. he's trying to eat away at ted cruz's evangelical support in

this state. right now polling suggests that he has the moderate votes in this country, or this state, excuse me, locked up. what he is trying to do is eat away at any of the evangelical support he can for ted cruz. you saw jerry falwell jr. up there, you saw him in church this morning swaying to hymns, he's here or he was here in sioux city. what he wants to do just get a little bit more support from that group of voters and they believe that will put them over the edge in iowa and they'll have a very good night tomorrow night. >> katy tur, we're predicting prescription out your way so be careful in your travels across the east. chris matthews in des moines at our election headquarters there. chris, while you were talking earlier, listening to lawrence o'donnell the last half hour, i was thinking about how big a hit the conventional wisdom and those who deal in it have taken here. no one could have predicted a

year back any of this. you can grab whatever aspect you want. the fall of bush, the rise of sanders, the rise, the appearance of donald trump. in a business, you've been around politics a long time, that thrives on predictions, pays a ton of money to people to go on cable tv and make predictions. what a hit the conventional wisdom has taken. >> well, let's start with citizens united. we thought that the koch brothers and others would run this campaign. all the money they've spent out here, all the big money, pac money, $15 million in iowa for george bush -- i mean, jeb bush, george's son, and brother. nothing, it's not happening. he's running 2% out here. bernie sanders on the other hand, who's running against citizens united as an issue, is really, really scoring on it. it's not just -- there he is. the fact is he's been able to say billionaires are not just buying goods and services with their wealth, they're buying our

elections, a powerful message we didn't expect. i want to go to steve schmidt and andrea here. the big story tomorrow, we already know from the polling, is the republican party is not the republican party it was. that the bushes, bush is running at 2%, his father and brother won here. now it looks to be cruz and trump especially will dominate the numbers tomorrow. >> when you look at the combined numbers for donald trump, ben carson, and ted cruz, the anti-establishment candidates, the bill has come due for an era of failure by the republican establishment. a failed war. the great recession. the housing bubble. you look at all of the failure on the part of republicans in washington. the complicity in doubling the national debt over the last decade. the corruption of the delayed congress. now you see republican voters across this country in open revolt against the establishment of the party. >> that's the big story, we know based on the polling out here. >> i've been spending time with

party leaders, going back and forth, i can tell you that both political parties are having a collective nervous breakdown. you've got house and senate members thinking, if trump or cruz is the leader, but actually they think trump might pull some of them in, that cruz would jettison all of it. the democratic side, they think sanders' strength is breaking the party apart. and if trump were the republican nominee they think those reagan democrats you and i remember in michigan, other places, they're going to come over and vote in the democratic race and they could defeat hillary clinton. >> you vote for the republican side. let me ask you what we've been watching in congress in the washington area for now a decade at least, is this dysfunction. this voting against. voting no all the time. the tea party. some certain percentage of the republican party comes in every day to vote no, no, no. that dysfunction i believe has seeped into the presidential process. and now we're basically saying no as the response of the voter. >> you look at the rise of bernie sanders against hillary

clinton. certainly senator sanders could win here tomorrow. this is systemic failure across the depth and breadth of the country. we have a total collapse of trust in very nearly every institution of the country with the exception of the military. the bonds of trust between the american people in all these institutions is broken. it extends to politics. fill ures of leadership, failures of governance are not contained to the republican party, they exist in the democratic party. we don't talk enough about the kevive thread between a bernie sanders voter and a donald trump voter. both candidates are the candidates talking about the corrupting influence of money and politics. >> talk about the big role model shift. historically the republican party's been the party of whose turn it is. whether nixon or whoever's turn it is. usually a bush. this time it was hillary clinton's turn, right? andrea, you take this. the party seems to be fighting that. they don't want to make it easy. they don't want to make it sure. they want to test these two candidates.

even bernie sanders for four or five months perhaps. >> i just ran into barney frank who were on with chuck and have been key surrogates here. they are so angry at bernie sanders. they feel that it is a complete rejection of the obama legacy. he would argue differently. but that's what they think, that this is -- that they did the best they could with dodd-frank, it needs improvement, but that they fought for every single vote, they got no help from republicans, and now that bernie sanders is basically rejecting everything that they fought so hard for. now, of course, they made compromises along the way and it is not the progressive legacy that the progressive wing of the party wants. >> martin o'mally tomorrow evening. do you think he'll send a signal to his caucus attenders -- attendees? >> i've got some reporting on that. >> that they may go to hillary if they don't get to 15%? she looks like the ultimate winner still. >> hillary clinton, what the campaign is doing, with this new app they rolled out, they're not

just tracking voters. they have the obama playbook that defeated her eight years ago. they are figuring out which precincts to go to where they can take delegates away from sanders by shifting people to o'mally and making him viable. >> them to go to o'mally? >> they want to take people and shift them to o'mally in key areas where it looks like sanders is going to win and take delegates away from him, that's the game plan. >> back to brian williams in new york. >> thank you, chris. three of our veterans there in iowa. you've got chris matthews, andrea mitchell, steve schmidt, veteran of the mccain presidential effort, hoped-for presidential effort. >> that's right. the last point they were just making, about what may happen with martin o'mally supporters on the democratic side, it sounds like oar cane math. >> we may need legos for that. >> remay. it's a strategic tactical move that takes a 90-degree turn in the middle of it. it is explicable and one of the

things i'm hoping we can ask hillary clinton about. hillary clinton is on her way to des moines. we are going to be talking with her live in just a few minutes. we'll have much more ahead.

in des moines, iowa, as the countdown begins to tomorrow's iowa caucus, it's a hot night in the all-purpose room at abraham lincoln high school where they are all gathered and awaiting the arrival of former secretary of state, former senator, hillary clinton. that includes our own business kristen welker. >> you can feel the energy, it's electric. clinton supporters getting really energized in the final days. so is the candidate herself. i've been following her from the

moment she first announced and i can tell you that in these final days she has really delivered some of her most spirited speeches yet, delivered the final pitch to voters that she says she is the most experienced candidate and the best one to take on republicans in general election. i spoke to one of her campaign officials who told me they're feeling confidence, in part because "des moines register"/bloomberg gave secretary clinton a very slim lead. it's all going to come down to turnout. they say they have the strongest will to get this done. we'll wait and see tomorrow. >> thanks, chris 10. clintons have not had an easy time in iowa. bill clinton won the nomination in 1992. but not before he came in fourth place in iowa. hillary clinton did not win the nomination in 2008. she lost iowa to barack obama in 2008.

she also lost iowa to john edwards in 2008. she came in third place. lawrence o'donnell, master of strategy -- >> a quick parens thinks. in '92 when bill clinton was running the iowa senator tom harkin was running so everybody said, forget about it. i think the gdp of iowa dropped considerably because the democrats just ignored it basically. >> still, fourth place, 3%. you wear that like a tattoo the rest of your life. >> that absolutely is not second, that's right. >> martin o'mally is the distant third place in all the polls and there's a question as to how many caucuses will his supporters be able to put up, 15% of the total number, and stay viable? >> if any. then there's this trick that you can play. if you are the clinton campaign or the sanders campaign. if martin owe rally, if you see in your caucus gymnasium it looks like he's maybe around 14%, you can say to one of your clinton supporters, go over there, stand with o'mally, that

will get him 15%. that means the 15% stays solidified in this count. if not, that 15% would then have to disperse and divide between hillary clinton and bernie sanders. and the betting is that it may well lean towards sanders, since he is the -- more of a challenger. >> there was one monmouth poll that -- ppp poll that broke this down in which martin o'mally supporters were asked, who would your second choice be? looks like they do really break toward bernie, which explains why the hillary clinton campaign is saying, we'd rather keep martin o'mally viable than let all his supporters become bernie supporters. >> clinton campaign has the characteristics of incumbency, 100% name recognition, long governing record, it has all the benefits of incumbencies and it has some of the negatives of incumbency. challengers are more likely to go to sanders as we've seen. this trick was invented by the obama campaign.

>> i was going to say that. >> 2008. >> while cynical, it's perfectly legal given the fact that these are party gatherings. >> it's unfortunate what's legal in the democratic caucuses in iowa. >> it's tactical. it's not ugly if you explain why you're doing it. >> they should switch to the republican rules and just count votes, count the people who show up who are for o'mally, sanders. the complications they have in there now make it virtually indescribable to people in iowa. >> the interesting thing will be whether or not the democratic party is able to retain the sort of growth rate that they've had in their turnout at the iowa caucuses. we saw them go from 60,000 to 120,000 to 240,000 people. obviously they're not going to get more than 400,000 people, double it again for 2016. the turnout projections from people who do that sort of thing, like at "the des moines register" poll, does not seem to indicate a huge new tide of

caucusgoers. if that number levels off it's not good for bernie sanders, there's question whether or not that's good for the democratic party of iowa. >> if we use the traditional mathematics for turnout, which is percent, this is tiny. this is like a city council race in los angeles. it's down below 20%, usually. >> that's true. >> so the big version of turnout is 21%. this is not -- as much as we concentrate on it, and everybody at these events tonight, it's really fascinating to see. we're going to have this thing that's a little bit difficult to participate in called the caucus tomorrow night. by the way we'd like you to come out the night before and cheer for our candidates. those are committed voters, the ones who are coming out the night before and they're going to come out tomorrow night. >> lawrence o'donnell, talk about the effect on the iowa economy of all this, you want to be in the jet fuel vendor business, you want to be in the bus rental business -- >> folding chair rentals. >> oh yeah, catering, you've got

it. speaking of jet fuel. the plane carrying former secretary of state hillary clinton has landed in des moines. we are expecting to speak to her by telephone before she enters the aforementioned all-purpose room at abraham lincoln high school.

welcome back on iowa eve. 're expecting former secretary of state hillary clinton live with us in just a moment.

you see there legendary iowa senator tom harkin who's been warming up the crowd for her event tonight in des moines. we are expecting secretary clinton to talk with us live before she gets on stage there in des moines. joining us now once again is the great steve kornacki. hillary clinton came in third place in iowa in 2008. she knows better than nearly anybody that a loss in iowa could change the whole trajectory of the race, making an inevitable nominee anything but inevitable. what's the outlook for her this time around in iowa? >> that's the interesting thing. when you think back eight years ago, iowa was the beginning of the end for hillary clinton. we talked earlier about how she does have that superdelegate advantage that firewall that seems to be a firewall later in the south. but if she loses tomorrow night, she could find herself very quickly in pretty much an unprecedented situation. let me show you what i mean by that. first of all, this is the latest poll out in iowa. we've been talking about it all night. 45-42, clinton leads sanders. if sanders pulls this thing off,

think about this. if sanders catches her tomorrow and wins, okay, that's a win for bernie sanders. what happens next? they move to new hampshire. this is reversed, actually. bernie sanders is the one who's ahead right now by nearly 20 points in new hampshire. if you're bernie sanders you're already ahead by 20 points in new hampshire, and you win iowa, you have put together at one-two punch. winning iowa, winning new hampshire. that has only been done twice before in the history of democratic primaries. you saw that in in 2004. john kerry won iowa, won new hampshire, won the nomination. al gore in 2000 won iowa, won new hampshire, won the nomination, and in fact won every single contested primary and caucus in 2000. that's the kind of momentum that has come with winning those first two states. and bernie sanders would become the third person in the history of the modern democratic nominating process to go with a win in iowa, a win in new hampshire. while we say hillary clinton is set up well in those later

states, we would be testing something we haven't tested before. no one has won the democratic nomination with their opponent sweeping iowa and new hampshire. if she loses tomorrow night, hillary clinton could quickly find herself in that situation. needing to pull that off. >> we're also finding, in terms of the other metrics here, steve, one of the things that was announced today by the bernie sanders campaign is that they raised $20 million in this past month. for context, over the last three months of 2015, the hillary clinton campaign was raising an average of $12 million to $13 million a month. bernie sanders raised $20 million just this past month. so no matter how he comes out of these first two states and how she comes out of these first two states, they both have the resources, they both have the rhetorical ammo, proverbial ammo, to keep this going for a long time. the other thing is like we saw in 2008, a predictable demographic pattern emerge in the 2008 where you could start predicting these states almost ahead of time.

there were clinton states there were obama states. it's early but we are seeing a framework of a demographic pattern that could keep sanders in this thing for a while. >> steve kornacki at the board, again with the interesting math emerging on this eve of the iowa caucuses. and i'm now told former secretary of state hillary clinton has been able to join us by telephone after landing in des moines. madam secretary, thank you very much for being with us. i know you are traveling as a family right now in this past 24 hours with your husband, your daughter, your granddaughter, and son-in-law in tow. do you think all of them are surprised to be in iowa at this point of the campaign? meaning, was this always planned to be there en masse? >> oh, absolutely. you know, it is something that i've been looking forward to, of course. chelsea and bill have been doing a lot of events for me. not only here in iowa but in

other places. which has really been terrific because of the reaction they get. and then i wanted the whole family together as we go through this first contest with the caucuses tomorrow night. >> madam secretary, a surrogate of yours, patty doyle, said today that every day senator sanders is "inching closer and closer" to being an everyday politician. surrogates rarely speak without permission of the boss. is that your position? on your competition? >> well, look, i think we are seeing the contrasts drawn in this election, which is more than appropriate. it's timely. but i'm very proud of the democratic side. because we have focused on issues. we do have substantive differences on issues but if you compare that with what we see on the republican side, which is mostly insults, i think it's

giving potential caucusgoers and voters a way of comparing, contrasting, and making up their minds. and i think that's healthy. it's good for the electorate to have that opportunity. >> on the democratic side, were you surprised today after his comment at the debate about your e-mails that was welcomed by the democratic party, he changed today to calling it a serious matter. did that take you by surprise? >> well -- you know, he's been moving toward a more negative campaign for some weeks now. and i'm disappointed because i think he had made it clear he wanted to run on issues and he wanted to run a positive campaign. that's really one of his claims. so i'll let him speak for himself and his campaign. i'm going to continue to talk

about what not only iowans but americans are talking to me about, and i'm on my way to my last big rally here in des moines at lincoln high school and i'm really looking for-ward to it. people have been working so hard for so many months. and i feel good, i feel like we've got a great organization, and we'll see what happens tomorrow night. >> madam secretary, it's rachel maddow. thank you for talking with us. a question about your other opponent. we've had some reports that your campaign supporters are planning to cross over at some caucuses to join martin o'mally supporters, basically as a tactical move to keep o'mally's campaign viable, to deny martin o'mally supporters the chance to defect to bernie sanders. is that part of your plan? are you encouraging that? >> you know, it's the first i've heard of that, rachel. i have no additional information. i know that as you get down to the caucuses, i experienced that back in '08, and apparently it's quite a tradition.

people are standing in one corner, moving to another corner. so we'll just wait till the music stops and see where everybody is. >> let me ask you about one very specific iowa policy issue where senator sanders has taken a stand, he's running ads on it, he's campaigned on it, and i don't know your position on it. that's this planned backen crude oil pipeline that has been proposed for running through iowa. it's got a lot of people on the democratic side of the aisle up in arms. senator sanders strongly against it. do you have a position on that pipeline? >> i've spoken out against it on numerous occasions. because i've said that, although it is a state issue, this particular permitting process is the province of the state of iowa, it's not a federal government decision, all of these pipeline decisions need to be looked at in a much broader context. my goal is to move us toward clean, renewable energy. this particular pipeline is not

a natural gas pipeline, as i understand it. it's an oil pipeline. and i think we should not be making these ad hoc decisions. we ought to be looking at how we have an energy transition. so i've said we need to look at every element of it. i've urged the state to do so. the health, environmental. more than that the overall energy needs of the mid west. and beyond. so i've spoken out against it. i think it is something that deserves a lot of attention before it's just rubber stamped. >> secretary clinton, bernie sanders' campaign has announced late today they raised a huge amount of money last month, they raised $20 million in one month. is he raising more money than you are at this point? and are you raising enough money to still win and still have gas in the tank for the general election if this goes a very long time in terms of this fight for the nomination? >> oh, i have no doubt about

that. i mean, we're going to have whatever resources we need to go until we secure the nomination. and i think that the people who are supporting me have been absolutely terrific. they gave us the opportunity to have a record-breaking first year. and net, of course, rachel, i'm not only raising money for myself, i'm raising money to help democrats up and down the ballot. something i care deeply about. i want to rebuild the democratic pay in a lot of states so that we have a pipeline and we can begin to take back governorships, legislatures, as well as try to take back the u.s. senate and make progress in the house. and we will have the resources to compete. we have a lot of momentum. and we have a lot of energy and enthusiasm. i'm looking forward to the week

ahead and new hampshire and then beyond. and it's going to be a great campaign. i'm ready. i've always thought this was going to be a good contest. it certainly is turning into one. and i think i'm going to be successful in making my case to democrats and then going on and running against and defeating whoever the republicans put up. >> madam secretary, before we unleash you on the forces inside the gym at lincoln high school, one final question. compared to a lot of others you do have a well-financed campaign. you're doing your own polling as opposed to waiting for newspapers to come out with theirs. how optimistic are you? how much sleep are you budgeted for tonight into tomorrow? after all, facing a tough one in new hampshire where you're battling a neighboring senator. >> well, brian, it's good to be

ahead going into the home stretch tomorrow. but look, this is obviously a very tight race. and everybody is just going to work till the last minute. we're going down to the wire. every caucusgoer marts. i've been telling folks not to worry about the weather reports. there's not going to be a blizzard before midnight so i hope everybody will still come out who was planning to come out. and i've been all over the state making the case that i'll be a president who will make a real difference in people's lives. and i don't think americans can wait. i think we've got to get to work. i have a track record of producing results. and that's what i think is going to lead me to the nomination. >> madam secretary, thank you very much for calling in to us tonight prior to what's believed to be your final rally before calling it a night on this eve of the iowa caucus. former secretary of state hillary clinton. lawrence o'donnell, gene robinson have rejoined us in our

studios in new york. lawrence, one of the coolest things about you is you have written 16 episodes of "the west wing." but not even the best hollywood writer can get quite right the level of ragged exhaustion when you are inside a campaign, when you're the candidate, when you are the body man or woman, when you're in the media covering a campaign. it is incredible and it's a harrowing time. >> i created the ice -- a presidential candidate had to put his hand in ice from all the handshaking. it's also voice maintenance, people lose their voices when it comes down to the wire. it is just this -- they need tonight to be showing this burst of energy and try to create a contagion on local iowa tv. the late-night news tonight, they want to see the candidates are out there, they're getting cheers, all that stuff.

that's what tonight's events are about. >> gene, hang on one second. let's fit a break in. we'll come back and resume.

welcome back on this caucus eve. if you've been with us you've seen the anato of a rally tonight through correspondent hallie jackson who was in basically an empty room except for the riggers and audio and visual people. the crowd starting to pick up on the grounds of the iowa state fair in des moines. >> reporter: the room's filling up. not everybody who's come out is necessarily a supporter of senator ted cruz yet. i've got paul and jill here. thanks for talking with us. tell me why you gave up your sunday night to come out and listen to a political speech. >> we gave up our sunday night for simple reasons. we went to see the top four candidates. this is the one we hadn't seen yet as far as republicans. we'll be able to make our decision tonight so when we caucus tomorrow night it will be very clear. >> you're undecided.

who are your top four? >> you've got trump, ben carson, rubio, and ted. >> who's in the lead for you right now? >> well, we'll find out shortly. right now it's between rubio and trump. >> how about you? i know david, you're a cruz guy, right? >> cruz guy, yeah. >> tell me why, why did you look him? >> he's good on all my issues. i'm an issues person, not really a personality person. he's good on my issues. he's good on second amendment, he's good on pro-life, he's good on all my issues, good for defense. >> you've seen him three times this week. that's dedication. >> wait, this is a new week. this is the first time this week. >> he's been out wednesday, yesterday, today. that's the kind of range of voters and caucusgoers you get here in iowa. >> hallie jackson in des moines, iowa, at the cruz rally. that's iowa. and by the way, those are the folks you want if you're a candidate. >> absolutely.

>> just as people in new york and los angeles say, i want to see "bridge of spies" and straight outta compton" before the academy awards, they want to see their four top candidates. >> and they expect to see their candidates in person and perhaps have a conversation with them and grill them on their issues. you know, it was fascinating earlier listening to chris hayes' interview, we heard your interview with secretary clinton. they both sounded as if they're ready to settle in for a bit of the campaign for a while. >> that's true. >> and nobody was talking about a knockout blow. because we all know how iowa and new hampshire line up. and so it looks like it's going to go on for a while. rachel, as we diddi years ago, we're going to be counting delegates. it's going to be all about the delegates. >> state delegate equivalents. >> hillary clinton has a big legate lead superdelegates.

>> which count. which add up to that total number. >> they super count. >> i thought i would never have to say that word, superdelegate, again. >> it's early yet. we might not have to. let's go back to our friend chris matthews in iowa right now with jerry reid and steve schmidt. >> i am with jerri reid and with steve. i want to congratulate hallie jackson for that brilliant random sampling. she found the voter who now explains to me the cruz support level. he said he didn't care about personality. by the way, the guy kept look like he had much personality either. he said, i like him on the issues. i thought that was great. he probably likes me saying that, this guy. he's a tough-looking customer, baseball hat. let me ask you, i understand i think the trump thrill. wild, exciting, funny, like a standup comic, a rich guy, running against the establishment. cruz has a much more somber approach. the fact that that guy, that brooding face that hallie got out of that guy, i don't care

about personality, i care about issues, he's with my issues. that was a good sampling. >> cruz reminds me of the people who read redstate.com. they sit there and write diaries about specific issues they care about. he's is national review, the standard. the intellectual movement conservatives who don't really care about personality. >> bill buckley had more joy than this guy. >> he's not a joyful character but it isn't a joyful race. even rubio is the emperor of doom at this point. it's youering and the country's going downhill. >> let me suggest two candidate hot may win tomorrow night who both have focus and joy. they both have it in common. trump, focus, attacking everybody else in civilization. and joy, he's having the time of his life. bernie sanders at the age of almost 74 is having the time of his life and everybody knows where he stands. focus, joy. and their opponents don't have either. maybe they have one, they don't have both. >> they're both viewed by the electorate as authentic and honest. >> maybe that counts for the joy.

>> there's no concealment to them that they're rejecting that archetype of going here, saying one thing to one group, another to a different group here. >> bernie's been saying the same thing, according to howard dean, for 15 years. >> you have that consistency. and this election cycle where people are rejecting status quo, craving that authentic messaging. donald trump's case, he has tapped into the vein of the republican consciousness in this country. these voters believe the country's not great anymore. they believe that barack obama has succeeded in his mission to change america. they believe that he has succeeded because the republicans in the congress have been collaborationist and complicit. >> the way trump makes those points is hilarious. he's laughing, they're laughing. he's saying, canada, canada, canada, everybody knows it's a game. >> a master communicator having fun. a raucous eye to american politics, donald trump's embracing it. >> hillary knows -- i like

hillary personally and politically but everybody knows she can't wait to get in the oval office with the flip chart and the staff and start figuring out education policy and full funding for title 20. she don't like this campaigning. >> i think she's enjoying it more. i'm seeing a little bit more -- >> you see joy there? >> the reality is -- what steve said about tapping into the emotions of the party, i think bernie sanders is doing a version of the same thing. i've got to tell you the two big issues that will evoke significant emotion and negative emotion when it comes to progressives, to very liberal people, number one that the big banks, nobody went to jail after the great recession. there's this feeling that the obama administration had the opportunity -- >> give me the rest of that sentence. people took speaking fees from goldman sachs. >> bought and paid for and they let the bankers get away with it. that's one of the emotional triggers bernie sanders is pulling. the other is the affordable care act, that grueling, ugly, horrible process we watched in 2009. the pragmatists look at that and say the aca was actually an

incredible achievement that barack obama brought about, you also have democrats who believe somehow the president could have gotten -- >> excuse me, i think the republican party has been a rejectionist party for a couple of years. the democratic party has tried to be an accommodationist party and that has bugged the left. they don't like it from the clintons especially. >> i don't see where accommodation on the democratic side has helped. i will say to joy's point about hillary clinton. one of the extraordinary misjudgments of the mood of the country, after she left the secretary of state's office, as someone who is going to run for president of the united states as a prospective candidate, taking six-figure speaking deals from all these banks. extraordinary disconnect with the zeitgeist of the democratic party in that decision-making. >> i'm sure it looked like a good idea at the time. you've mentioned something important we were talking about, and brian and rachel, i think it's the embrace of hillary clinton of barack obama. for a lot of good reasons. they are very close politically

and ideologically. also because the african-american vote is hillary's lifeline and she knows it and they're very, very loyal as a people to the president. >> certainly visible during the event in south carolina. thanks all the way west to des moines, election headquarters there. we'll fit in another break. we're on the ragged edge of a couple of final events tonight across the state of iowa going into the iowa caucuses tomorrow.

this is a live shot of lincoln high school in des moines, iowa, where the final clinton campaign rally on the eve of the iowa caucuses is due to start momentarily. i will say one of the very exciting things about covering

iowa is that it is not a primary, it is a caucus. and one of the great cross tabs in "the des moines register" poll that came out right before the voting starts tomorrow said that 45% of republican voters, republican caucusgoers, 30 percent of democratic caucusgoers, consider themselves to be still persuadable. and there isn't persuasion that happens in the voting booth in a primary the way that iowans will be trying to persuade each other at these live events, 200 different site across iowa tomorrow. that uncertainty, the closeness of polls and the fact that people are willing to talk it out amongst themselves and that's how we'll decide, it's not quaint, it's awesome. it's exciting. >> and if you're living in iowa, if you grew up there, this is part of the family business. and it feels very, very real around about tonight. also important to remember, what a serious business it is. somewhere in a limousine or an suv or a holding room in the hallway of a high school or a

hotel, a young campaign aide is right now handing the candidate a power bar and an apple juice about that big. and that candidate is whoever they are the future head of the free world. as we like to say. that's where this process ends up. bernie sanders today became the latest candidate to be given, for example, secret service protection, which by my count makes it four. there is always a reason for that. has to be approved by the president. but it is seldom ever turned down. but that will remind you just how serious business this is. all of these campaigns are on the move. tomorrow that will mean snowy roads and air space that is crowded. for us, it means handing all of you good people off to a reairing of this morning's "meet the press" which is very much jermaine on the political conversation we're having here tonight. among our thanks, our team at election headquarters out in des moines, iowa, being captained by chris matthews, et al.

here in our studio, lawrence o'donnell, eugene robinson, all our friends including steve kornacki at the big board with all 99 counties. >> memorized without labels on them. >> all memorized without labels. you want to ask this guy, where's sioux county? he's going to show you where it is. there's no cheat sheet for him. incredible night, all of it a preview for tomorrow. >> tomorrow night we're going to be here starting 6:00 p.m. eastern. the caucuses, if you are an iowan and watching us, your doors close at your caucus at 7:00 p.m. local time, 8:00 eastern. you've got to be in there before 7:00 p.m. our coverage will start 6:00 p.m. on the east coast and we'll go as long as it takes. sometimes these things get called 90 minutes after the doors closed, sometimes like last year it took 16 days on the republican side. so pack accordingly. >> we'll see you 16 days from now. as we review elements of the clinton political family are

arriving at lincoln high school. daughter chelsea, former president and husband bill clinton, all a buildup to the hillary clinton rally tonight. for all of us here good night, we'll see you tomorrow.

this sunday, the iowa caucuses. the candidates have had their say, now it's time for iowa voters to have theirs. can donald trump win here and just simply start to roll? >> i don't even think i have to campaign anymore. why am i even wasting my time? >> can ted cruz beat trump and turn this into a two-man race? >> the time for all that media noise is past. this is your time. >> what about marco rubio? does he finish second and become the chief challenger to trump? >> you see some deceitful things going on in the last minute. >> ted cruz, marco rubio and rand paul are all with me